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Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 India’s National Security Annual Review 2010 Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 216x138 HB + 8colour pages ii Ç India’s National Security This series, India’s National Security: Annual Review, was con- ceptualised in the year 2000 in the wake of India’s nuclear tests and the Kargil War in order to provide an in-depth and holistic assessment of national security threats and challenges and to enhance the level of national security consciousness in the country. The first volume was published in 2001. Since then, nine volumes have been published consecutively. The series has been supported by the National Security Council Secretariat and the Confederation of Indian Industry. Its main features include a review of the national security situation, an analysis of upcoming threats and challenges by some of the best minds in India, a periodic National Security Index of fifty top countries of the world, and a chronology of major events. It now serves as an indispensable source of information and analysis on critical national security issues of India. Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 India’s National Security Annual Review 2010 Editor-in-Chief SATISH KUMAR Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 LONDON NEW YORK NEW DELHI Under the auspices of Foundation for National Security Research, New Delhi First published 2011 in India by Routledge 912 Tolstoy House, 15–17 Tolstoy Marg, Connaught Place, New Delhi 110 001 Simultaneously published in the UK by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business Transferred to Digital Printing 2011 © 2010 Satish Kumar Typeset by Star Compugraphics Private Ltd D–156, Second Floor Sector 7, NOIDA 201 301 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage and retrieval system without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 A catalogue record of this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 978-0-415-61255-5 Contents Governing Board viii Editorial Board ix Contributors xi Preface xvii Map xix 1. Introduction 1 I National Security Review 2. National Security Environment 11 Satish Kumar (i) Global Security Trends 11 (ii) External Security Situation 48 (iii) Internal Security Developments 92 3. India’s Neighbourhood 130 (i) Iran: A Strategic Profile 130 K. C. Singh (ii) Afghanistan’s Future: Options for India 142 Arun Sahgal (iii) Myanmar and India’s Security 169 K. Yhome (iv) Sri Lanka: Post War Problems 182 V. Suryanarayan (v) Power Play in Nepal 201 Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 Yubaraj Ghimire 4. India’s Engagement with Asia, Africa and Latin America 215 FNSR Research Staff 5. Sino–Indian Relations: Recent Developments 227 Vinod C. Khanna vi Ç India’s National Security 6. Pakistan’s War on Terror: Is There Adequate Will? 243 Wilson John 7. India’s Strategic Partnership with Russia 262 Kanwal Sibal 8. India’s Defence and Security Initiatives 2009 276 Vineet Thakur 9. Pakistan’s Internal Security 2009 290 FNSR Research Staff II National Security Challenges and Opportunities 10. India’s Economic Security: Reprising the Growth Trajectory 313 Chandrajit Banerjee 11. Missile Capabilities of Pakistan, China and Iran 333 S. Chandrashekar, Rajaram Nagappa, N. Ramani, Manabrata Guha, Lalitha Sundaresan 12. Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons 355 Shalini Chawla 13. NPT, CTBT, FMCT and the Future? 376 Manpreet Sethi 14. India and Climate Change 395 Shyam Saran Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 15. Water Challenges for India 404 Uttam Kumar Sinha 16. Evolving Security Structures in East Asia 422 Sudhir T. Devare 17. National Security System — Evolution 435 S. D. Pradhan Contents Ç vii III National Security Index 2010 National Security Index 2010 453 Satish Kumar IV Chronology of Major Events 2009 United States 475 Canada 481 Europe 481 Russia 484 Japan 487 China 488 Pakistan 492 Nepal 496 Bangladesh 497 Sri Lanka 499 Bhutan 501 Maldives 501 Major Global Developments 502 Major Regional Developments 503 SAARC 509 Africa and Latin America 509 Index 511 Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 Foundation for National Security Research Governing Board Chairman Amb. M. Rasgotra, Former Foreign Secretary, Government of India, and Former Chairman, National Security Advisory Board Director Prof. Satish Kumar, Former Professor of Diplomacy, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Members Dr Sanjaya Baru, Editor, Business Standard, New Delhi Prof. P. V. Indiresan, Former Director, Indian Institute of Technology, Chennai Lt. Gen. Satish Nambiar, Former Director, United Service Institution of India, New Delhi Dr Roddam Narasimha, Chairman, Engineering Mechanics Unit, Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Bangalore Air Cmde. Jasjit Singh, Director, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi Air Chief Marshal S. P. Tyagi, Former Chief of Air Staff, India Sh. B. G. Verghese, Former Editor, The Hindustan Times, New Delhi Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 India’s National Security Annual Review Editorial Board Chairman Amb. M. Rasgotra, Former Foreign Secretary, Government of India, and Former Chairman, National Security Advisory Board Members Dr Sanjaya Baru, Editor, Business Standard, New Delhi Sh. Tarun Das, Former Director General and Chief Mentor, Confederation of Indian Industry, New Delhi Amb. Arundhati Ghose, Former Ambassador and Permanent Representative of India to UN Offices in Geneva and the Conference on Disarmament Prof. P. V. Indiresan, Former Director, Indian Institute of Technology, Chennai Lt. Gen. Satish Nambiar, Former Director, United Service Institution of India, New Delhi Dr Roddam Narasimha, Chairman, Engineering Mechanics Unit, Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Bangalore Dr S. D. Pradhan, Former Chairman, Joint Intelligence Committee, New Delhi Dr V. Siddhartha, Former Scientist Emeritus, Defence Research and Development Organization, New Delhi Air Cmde. Jasjit Singh, Director, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 Delhi Sh. B. G. Verghese, Former Editor, Hindustan Times, New Delhi x Ç India’s National Security Editor-in-Chief Associate Editor (Hony.) Prof. Satish Kumar Nilofar Suhrawardy Former Professor of Diplomacy Jawaharlal Nehru University Assistant Editors Naresh Kumar B. K. Foundation/Editorial Office Vineet Thakur Z-24, Ground Floor Hauz Khas Research Assistants New Delhi – 110016 Indrani Talukdar Tel.: 91-11-41656842 Kaustav Padmapati Fax: 91-11- 46018144 Valte Computer-cum-Office Assistant Yashveer Jaswal Email: [email protected] Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 Contributors Chandrajit Banerjee is presently Director General, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). Mr Banerjee has over twenty years’ experience in CII. He was also Executive Director of the National Foundation of Corporate Governance (NFCG), an organisation set up by the Ministry of Company Affairs, Government of India. Some of the im- portant positions held by him in the past in CII include: Head of the Regional & States Operations in CII; Head as Regional Director of the Western, Southern and the Northern Regions; Head of Organisational Functions — HRD/Training; Finance; Administration; Information Technology. He headed CII’s Economics Department. Before taking over as DG of CII he was the Chief Operating Officer of the Bangalore International Exhibition Centre (BIEC). Prof. S. Chandrashekar is Professor in Corporate Strategy and Policy Area at the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (IIMB) and heads the International Strategic & Security Studies Programme at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore. Prior to joining IIMB he worked for more than twenty years at the Indian Space Research Organisation, Bangalore (ISRO). His work at ISRO covered all parts of the programme — satellites, rockets as well as applications of space technology. His co-authors — Rajaram Nagappa, N. Ramani, Manabrata Guha, Lalitha Sundaresan — work at NIAS. Shalini Chawla is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS), New Delhi. An M.Phil from Jawaharlal Nehru University, she was a research scholar at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (1999–2002). She specialises in Pakistan studies with focus on Downloaded by [University of Defence] at 01:22 24 May 2016 Pakistan military, arms procurement, nuclear strategy and defence budget. She is widely published in national and international journals, covering a wide range of issues including Pakistan’s army, navy and air force, Pakistan’s defence spending and arms procurements, Pakistan’s political, social and economic dynamics, and United Nations Peacekeeping missions and small arms. She has also authored a book, Pakistan’s Military and its Strategy (2009). xii Ç India’s National Security Sudhir T. Devare is currently Director General, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. In a career spanning thirty-seven years in the foreign services, he served as India’s Ambassador to South Korea, Ukraine, Armenia and Georgia, and Indonesia. As Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs (1998–2001) he was closely associated with India’s ‘Look East’ policy initiative with the Asia–Pacific. He is a member of the National Security Advisory Board; Vice-Chairman of Research and Information System (RIS) of Developing Countries; Visiting Professor at the Centre for East Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University; Visiting Senior Research Fellow at Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore; and Fellow, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University. He has authored a book entitled India and Southeast Asia: Towards Security Convergence and has edited another, A New Energy Frontier: The Bay of Bengal Region.
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