Unmanned Ambitions Security implications of growing proliferation in emerging military drone markets www.paxforpeace.nl Colophon juli 2018 PAX means peace. Together with people in conflict areas and concerned citizens worldwide, PAX works to build just and peaceful societies across the globe. PAX brings together people who have the courage to stand for peace. Everyone who believes in peace can contribute. We believe that all these steps, whether small or large, inevitably lead to the greater sum of peace. If you have questions, remarks or comments on this report you can send them to
[email protected] See also www.paxforpeace.nl Authors Wim Zwijnenburg and Foeke Postma Editor Elke Schwarz Cover photo 13 Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 UAVs lined up in formation on a runway in 2017, © Bayhaluk / Wiki media Commmons / CC BY-SA 4.0 Graphic design Frans van der Vleuten Contact
[email protected] We are grateful for the help and support of Dan Gettinger, Arthur Michel Holland, Alies Jansen, Frank Slijper, Elke Schwarz, and Rachel Stohl. Armament Research Services (ARES) was commissioned to provide technical content for this report. ARES is an apolitical research organisation supporting a range of governmental, inter-governmental, and non-governmental entities (www.armamentresearch.com) This report was made with the financial support of the Open Society Foundations. 2 PAX ♦ Unmanned Ambitions Contents 1. Executive Summary 4 2. Introduction 6 2.1 Dangerous Developments 6 2.2 Structure 7 3. Drone Capabilities and Markets 8 3.1 Expanding markets 9 3.2 Military market 10 4. Military Drone Developments 13 4.1 Drones on the battlefield 15 4.2 Loitering munitions 16 4.3 Other uses 16 5.