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Home , Mark Udall

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: PAUL HARSTAD, HARSTAD STRATEGIC RESEARCH, INC. DATE: OCTOBER 5, 2010 RE: LEADS BY 3% IN SENATE RACE

According to our just-completed survey, Michael Bennet holds a 3% lead over Ken Buck among likely voters in Colorado. Overall, 44% of likely voters prefer Michael Bennet versus 41% for Ken Buck, 2% for Libertarian Maclyn Stringer, 1% for Green candidate Bob Kinsey, and 13% are undecided.

Among those who say they will definitely vote, Bennet holds a 2% lead over Buck – 45% to 43% – with 10% undecided. And among the pivotal Independent voters, Bennet leads by a 45% to 34% margin.

Notwithstanding the unprecedented barrage of Republican negative ads against Michael Bennet – in excess of 2-to-1 versus the Democratic side – the Senator’s popularity continues to hold up since the August primary (36% positive, 34% negative, essentially unchanged since mid-August).

By contrast, Ken Buck’s negatives continue to rise (now 31% positive, 41% negative) as voters become more familiar with his issue stands and extremism. In mid-August, Buck’s feelings were 28% positive and 24% negative, so his negatives have risen 17%.

The sample in this internal survey was conservative. It includes a 5% Republican advantage (39% registered Republicans, 34% registered Democrats, 27% registered unaffiliated) – twice the Republican edge in the statewide active voter file.

The survey was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research among a cross-section of 509 likely voters in Colorado drawn from a voter sample. It was interviewed by telephone from October 3 to 4, 2010. The overall results are subject to a statistical margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 4.4%.

Based in Colorado, Harstad Research has been the successful pollster for the Senate campaigns of and Mark Udall, among four other sitting U.S. Senators. Harstad Research has a remarkable record of accuracy in recent elections in Colorado and elsewhere. In 2008, Harstad’s final Colorado poll got Mark Udall’s winning margin within 0.3% of the final spread and ’s winning margin within 0.1% of the final spread.