sign in sign up
<<
Home , Bill Ritter, Bob Beauprez, Cory Gardner, John Hickenlooper, Mark Udall, Tom Strickland

To: Interested Parties From: Hilltop Public Solutions – Date: October 30th Re: What to Watch for in Colorado 2020

In just a few days, Colorado voting will come to an end, and the results will begin to be released.

As longtime Colorado political operatives, we are offering up a few things to look for, with some historical context.

First, a question, and a prediction.

The question: What is the largest statewide margin of victory in the last decade? ​ Answer: 2018, defeat 53.4%-42.8% for a margin of 10.6%* ​ ● Technically, won by 14.6% in 2010, but that was a fractured GOP ticket; Hickenlooper’s 51% of the vote is the more relevant number.

The 2020 prediction: and John Hickenlooper will both exceed Polis’ 2018 victory ​ ​ ​ margin.

In what is undoubtedly one of the greatest movies of all time, Remember the Titans, in the ​ ​ penultimate scene, Coach Yoast says to Coach Boone, “Run it up Herman...leave no doubt.” The Democratic Party goal for the 2020 election is to run up the score and leave no doubt that this state has moved from Red, to Purple, to Blue over the past twenty years. The Republicans are clearly on defense, and hoping for something of a repeat of 2002 when was famously told by his pollster on election day he would be the next Senator from Colorado, only to lose to by 5%. In other words - this thing ain’t over yet!

Below are some things to look for along with historical perspective on Colorado elections.

Before we get to the numbers, a primer on election night, Colorado style. While 100% of registered voters are sent a ballot by mail and can mail it back, we also have 383 drop boxes for voters to return their ballots and 342 voter service centers where voters can vote in person. Up until this year, the trend had been for voters to hold their ballots longer, and drop them off in the final few days. In fact, 40% of all ballots were returned in the final 4 days of 2016. That ​ number will be considerably lower in 2020 given the early vote surge.

As of the writing of this, Friday afternoon, over 2.3 million ballots have already been cast, received, and counted. That is a massive number, larger than in any prior election. The higher early returns and excitement lead to a second prediction: Colorado will eclipse it’s turnout rate ​ of 2016, when it was 2nd in the nation with 76%, and in fact will exceed 80% of registered voters, putting the raw number of votes over 3.25 million. The total votes cast in 2016 was ​ 2.87 million so this would represent an increase of some 400,000 voters.

Polls close at 7pm MT. Very shortly after that, the Secretary of State will release an early batch of results. These results generally make up a majority of those votes cast prior to election day. They don’t make up ALL of those votes, but a large percentage. It would not be surprising to see the SoS announce returns of over 2 million votes shortly after 7pm. After that, the counties start releasing returns at their own pace. For example, releases in 90 minute increments, with more returns at 8:30pm and 10:00pm. With such a huge number of returns announced so quickly, any large leads coming out of the 7pm announcement will be difficult to overcome.

1. How does turnout compare to 2016? So far, 2020 is significantly outpacing 2016. See ​ the chart below, and you can track as additional returns are announced.

Days Out 2016 2020

8 866,668 1,681,318

7 1,067,685 1,944,132

6 1,200,672 2,044,208

5 1,406,573 2,123,635

4 1,553,325 2,271,092

3 weekend ?

2 weekend ?

1 1,852,029 ?

Election day 8am 2,215,258 ?

Election day 2pm 2,404,846 ?

11/9 2,610,897

Final total 2,867,486

As we said above, we are looking for a 2020 turnout of over 3,250,000 votes.

1

2. What to look for early in the Senate race. When those first results are announced, how ​ do we know who will have a good night? (Caveat; it’s too early to know what votes will remain outstanding for election day itself. As of now the early returns will favor Democrats, but that could change over the weekend. Remember 2014...they called the race early for Gardner, who led by 5+% at 10pm; the final result was under 2% as the late votes that came in were strongly Democratic). a. Is Gardner keeping it close in Jefferson and Arapahoe? He lost these massive suburban counties by just 5,000 votes in 2014; they have grown more liberal since. A huge margin here quickly closes down any options Gardner might have. Heidi Ganahl did manage to top Alice Madden in Jefferson County in the 2016 Regent race, and Gardner kept it close in 2014 b. Battle of the bases. Does John Hicknelooper’s margin in Denver exceed Gardner’s combined margin in El Paso and Douglas? ’s margin in Denver (180k) was so large that it made it nearly impossible for Trump to win. Similarly big numbers by Hick and Biden would be tough to overcome. c. Who wins the new bellwethers? won Larimer by a few hundred ​ ​ votes in 2014. The only other Republican statewide elected official, Regent Heidi Ganahl, won it 52-48 in 2016, then Jared Polis won it by a solid 13% margin in 2018. carried Pueblo by under 1% in 2014, Clinton lost it by 1% in ​ ​ 2016 yet Bennet carried it by 10%. Garfield is a Western Slope county Obama ​ ​ lost by less than 100 votes in 2012, Gardner carried by 8% in 2014, and Polis won by just 350 votes in his 2018 victory. An interesting county to watch for CD3 as well - Republicans very much want to keep this county Red.

3. How big can Democrats win at the top of the ticket?

Colorado has generally been Blue at the top of the ticket in recent elections, except in the 2014 cycle which not only saw Gardner win, but Republicans down the ballot as well. In fact, Cynthia Coffman defeated Don Quick in the AG’s race by 9% while Gardner beat Udall by less than 2%.

However, 2016 and 2018 results as well as numerous polls would indicate that barring a stunning comeback, and Cory Gardner are very likely to lose Colorado, and the races won’t be particularly close. Democrats won rather comfortable victories in 2018, while 2016 generally gave Democrats solid, but not overwhelming, wins. And for those watching Senate/Pres races nationally, one interesting factoid: ’s margin above Hillary Clinton, despite being very small, was the 2nd largest in the country behind Jason Kander, the blindfold wearing machine gun assembling veteran who narrowly lost in Missouri. In WI, NV, NH the Senate races and presidentials dovetailed into near exact results. Will 2020 do the same, or can Senate candidates over-perform the presidential candidate in their state?

2 ’s results could give Gardner hope, but the state and nation are both far more partisan than they were in 2004 when Salazar overcame a Kerry loss to win his Senate seat.

Recent statewide results:

Percent of Year vote Margin

2018 Polis v Stapelton 53.4% v 42.8% 10.6% Griswold v 52.4% v 44.6% 2018 Williams 8%

2016 Hillary v Trump 47.8% v 42.1% 4.8%

2016 Bennet v Glenn 50% v 44.3% 5.7%

2016 Madden v Ganahl 48.9% v 51.1% 2.2%

Hickenlooper v 2014 Beauprez 49.3% v 46% 3.3%

2014 Quick v Coffman 42.4% v 51.4% 9.1%

2014 Udall v Gardner 46.3% v 48.2% 1.9%

2012 Obama v Romney 51.5% v 46.1% 5.4% 2010 Bennet v Buck 46.9% v 45.2% 1.6%

2008 Udall v Schaffer 50.8% v 40.9% 9.9%

2006 Ritter v Beauprez 56% v 39.5% 16.5%

2004 Salazar v Coors 50.4% v 45.7% 4.7% 2004 Kerry v Bush 46.7% v 51% 4.6%

The most stunning of all Colorado electoral facts: In 2002, Bill Owens defeated 62%-33%; a margin of 29%. Four years later, beat by 16.4%, 56.4%-40% That’s a swing from R+29 to D+16.4 = 45.4% in four years. ​

3

4. Colorado’s electorate has changed, massively. Who shows up?

In case it wasn’t clear that Colorado has changed, see below. A Republican registration advantage that at one time approached 200,000 has been erased, and Democrats now hold a lead of just over 100,000. But more significantly, over the past 10 years, Unaffiliateds have gone from 34% to 41% of all registered voters; a massive surge, and there are now more than 500,000 more Unaffiliated than Democratic voters.

The question for 2020 is how dominant are Unaffiliated voters? In 2016, more Republicans voted than Democrats, and more Democrats voted than Unaffiliated. In 2018, that was flipped, with U’s in first and R’s in last, although very narrowly. Now making up over 41% of registered voters, how much muscle will U’s flex in this high turnout presidential? We are guessing they will approach 40% share of the vote.

Below is a history of the partisan makeup of the electorate, and Hilltops projection for 2020. Note that the Republican share of the vote has dropped in every election cycle since 2010, ​ except for a minor rebound in 2014. Similarly, the Unaffiliated share has increased in every election since 2010.

4

5. Do any “Obama/Trump” counties flip back? The most important county to watch in the entire state is Pueblo. Trump famously beat ​ Hillary Clinton in the former Democratic stronghold, while on the same ballot Michael Bennet won by 10%. If Gardner is going to pull off a miracle, it would have to start in Pueblo. Similarly, if Diane Mitch Bush has a shot to defeat in CD3, she has to carry a strong margin in Pueblo.

The other “Obama/Trump” counties are … County Clinton Trump Conejos 44% 47.6% Chaffee 43.4% 47.9% Huerfano 43.2% 49.8% Pueblo 45.6% 46.1%

Garfield is another county to watch - Democrats have traditionally come close but have been unable to outright win it. This will be important for CD3 as well.

Clinton Trump Garfield 42.6% 49.6%

5 6. The bellwether counties.

The old saying in Colorado politics used to be “as goes Jefferson County goes Colorado.” Well, that train has left the station. The Democrats will win Jefferson, and they will win it by HUGE margins. Udall even carried Jefferson in his narrow 2014 loss to Gardner, and Polis won it by an astounding 39,000 votes (14%!). The county that has most closely mirrored the statewide results in the past two cycles is .Larimer. A true swing county with a mix of … urban/rural, young/old, and massive number of Unaffiliated voters, if you want to know how Colorado goes in 2020, Larimer is probably your best bellwether. Republican Regent Heidi Ganahl carried it 52-48 in her 2016 race, mirroring her statewide total. A few to watch: Bennet ‘10 Obama ‘12 Clinton ‘16 Bennet ‘16 Polis ‘18 Statewide 46.9% 51.5% 47.8% 50.1% 53.4% ​ Larimer 48.1% 53.7% 47.5% 52.6% 54.8% Broomfield 48.7% 51.8% 52.4% 56.3% 59.2% Pueblo 53.9% 55.9% 45.6% 52% 50.7% Garfield 45.4% 46.3% 42.6% 45.9% 49%

Then let’s look at our old bellwethers of Jefferson and Arapahoe Counties. Classic suburban counties that have moved Dem, and are repelled by Trump. How large of a vote margin can Biden/Hickenlooper achieve in these two formerly swing counties? Take a look at the transformation over time.

We believe Joe Biden and will win these two counties by over 100,000 votes.

Combined vote margin - Jefferson & Arapahoe Counties 2004 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Kerry Obama Bennet Obama Udall Clinton Polis -23k +54k +14k +43k +5k +66k +87k

7. Battle of the Bases

Something apparent to everyone living in Colorado but often overlooked in politics - Denver is growing, and growing fast. And it's getting more progressive. What margin can Joe Biden rack up in Denver vs what Trump can get in El Paso + Douglas counties, the traditional GOP base? Hillary Clinton won Denver by a whopping 180,000 votes, far more than Trump was ​ ​ able to get out of his largest base counties.

2004 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Kerry Obama Bennet Obama Udall Clinton Polis Denver +86k +135k +89k +149k +103k +180k +178K ​ El Paso -82k -51k -50k -28k -68k -71k -46K Douglas -40k -22k -28k -43k -42k -34k -28k Difference -36k +62k +11k +78k -7k +75k +76k

6 8. How far down the ballot does the wave strike, and which if any Republicans can overcome it?

First, CD3. Let’s make this clear - CD3 is a Republican district. Jared Polis won the State by 10.6%, and yet lost CD3. lost CD3 in both ‘08 and ‘12. Mitch Bush lost to by 8% in 2018, and Gail Schwartz lost to Tipton by 14.6% in 2016. So the fact that this race is even competitive is stunning.

What will it take for Mitch Bush to win? Both turn out and persuasion - it can’t just be one or the other. In other words, she needs massive turnout from the fast growing ‘ski counties’ - Eagle, Route, Gunnison, La Plata, Pitkin. And she needs to cut Boebert’s margin across the district, but most importantly in Mesa County.

Mesa makes up approximately 20% of likely voters in the district and DMB lost it 2-1 in 2018. Holding the Boebert margin under 28% in Mesa gives DMB a shot. If it’s larger than that, it's a very difficult path.

A few interesting legislative contests to watch: a. Rankin v Hanlon, SD6: This is a Senate District held by Republicans forever, which is mostly rural although contains the fast growing ski town around Steamboat. Democrats are sure to do well in urban and suburban parts of the state but can the momentum carry into traditionally Republican, rural Colorado?

b. Priola v Dickerson, SD25: Priola is one of a very few GOP legislators who can claim a legitimate bi-partisan record. He also used to be a State Rep in a large part of this district, and beat back a challenge in 2016 by former State Rep Jenise May 52%-48%. In short, Priola is as formidable a candidate as the GOP has. Spending is off the charts on both sides; Hillary won the district in 2016, Biden will almost certainly carry it in 2020; can Priola overcome the top of the ticket?

c. Bri Buentello v Stephanie Luck in HD47: Buentello defeated a very tarnished GOP candidate in 2018, and this district lies in Pueblo, which has been trending the wrong way for Dems for years. Do the blue collar Pueblo voters stick with the Democrat, or do they continue their move towards the GOP?

d. Can Democrats invade solid Republican turf in Douglas County? Dems traditionally get creamed here but 2020 may signal a change...can Jennifer Mitkowski beat Rep Kevin Van Winkle? The County Commissioner races are also lively but require a massive shift, as the Dem running for County Commissioner ​ ​ lost 60%-40% in 2016. If these races are competitive, you know it’s a great night for Democrats.

7 7. Do the ballot measures give conservatives or progressives, or (likely) both, something to celebrate?

On the candidate level, 2020 looks bleak for Republicans, but ballot measures may give conservatives some victories. The income tax reduction (Prop 116) and TABOR Fee change (Prop 117) could give them something to cheer about.

At the same time, progressives would be thrilled to pass a strong Family Leave measure, the National Popular Vote, as well as tax tobacco/vaping to pay for education, and possibly even take down the Gallagher Amendment, a longtime target for fiscal reformers.

And does Colorado continue its streak of beating back anti-choice ballot measures? Colorado typically is one of the most pro-choice states in the country, but public polling has shown a relatively divided electorate on Prop 115. Prediction: Prop 115 loses ​ solidly.

Summary: For the first time since 2004, Colorado is off the list of battleground states, ​ considered safe for Biden-Harris. The registration shifts over the past ten years have changed Colorado from a lean-Red state to one that leans Blue but is really “independent” as Unaffiliated votes now massively outnumber those of the two political parties. The candidates, from either party, that can win those voters will be successful in Colorado. The main question ​ ​ about 2020 revolves around the Republican candidates ability to stop the wave from sweeping them under, even in more conservative parts of the State.

8