<<

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 Geography: RBS Sponsor: Data Collected: 10/04/2014 - 10/08/2014 High Point University () Release Date: 10/09/2014 Percentages

In Colorado, 3 Weeks Until Votes are Counted, Republicans May Have Slight Advantage in Contests for US Senate and Governor: Both incumbent Democratic Senator and incumbent Democratic Governor are in trouble, 1 week till voting begins, according to a High Point University poll. Both contests are close, both contests could go either way, but Democrats will have to outperform these survey estimates to hold the statehouse and the nationally-significant Senate seat. * Today, it's Republican challenger 46%, Udall 42%, with 7% voting for another candidate and 5% undecided, in the contest for US Senator. * Today, it's Republican challenger 46%, Hickenlooper 44%, with 6% voting for another candidate and 4% undecided, in the contest for Governor.

Gardner holds 84% of the state's Republicans, 82% of the state's conservatives. Udall holds 84% of the state's Democrats, 85% of the state's liberals. But: independent voters break by 5 points for the Republican Gardner, and that accounts for a portion of his lead. Greater Denver votes Democratic. The rest of Colorado votes Republican. White voters back Gardner 48% to 42%. Minorities vote 5:3 Democratic. There is a 23-point Gender Gap. Gardner leads by 16 among men. Udall leads by 7 among women. 39% of likely voters approve of the job Udall is doing as US Senator, 52% disapprove --- a Net Job Approval rating of Minus 13. Beauprez holds 85% of the Republican base, 81% of conservatives. Hickenlooper holds 88% of the Democratic base, and 85% of liberals. But: Independent voters break by 5 points for the Republican Beauprez, and that accounts for a portion of his lead. Greater Denver votes narrowly Democratic. The rest of Colorado votes Republican. White voters back Beauprez 48% to 43%. Minorities vote 4:3 Democratic. There is a 16 point Gender Gap: Beauprez has less of an advantage among men than does Gardner. Hickenlooper has less of an advantage among women than does Udall. President has a 40% job approval rating in Colorado at this hour, 54% disapprove, for a Net Job Approval rating of Minus 14. Obama's signature piece of legislation, the , has a 38% approval, 55% disapproval, for a Minus 17 net rating. 7% of CO Republicans think the country is headed in the right direction, compared to 60% of Democrats. 92% of Republicans say the country is on the wrong track, compared to 31% of Democrats. Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey, which was conducted 100% by telephone. SurveyUSA interviewed 876 state of Colorado registered voters 10/04/14 through 10/08/14, using Registration Based Sample (aka: Voter List Sample) purchased from Aristotle in DC. To be included in the sample, a voter needed to have voted in both 2010 and 2012, or needed to have newly registered to vote thereafter. Of the 876 registered voters, 800 were determined to be likely to vote on or before 11/04/14. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent's cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, and remained on the phone until the call was completed. You must credit High Point University if you broadcast, publish or cite these results in whole or part.

1 On November 4th, Colorado will hold its general election for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and other offices. How certain are you that you will vote in this election? 876 Registered Voters Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-2.2% Male Female 18-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispani Asian/O Republi Democr Indepen Certain 88% 89% 86% 65% 74% 94% 96% 69% 95% 89% 71% 85% ** 93% 80% 91% Probably 4% 4% 4% 8% 5% 3% 2% 7% 2% 3% 8% 9% ** 2% 5% 4% 50/50 7% 5% 9% 24% 19% 3% 1% 22% 2% 7% 20% 5% ** 4% 15% 3% Will Not 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% ** 0% 0% 2% Not Sure 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% ** 0% 0% 1% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Registered Voters 100% 47% 53% 15% 13% 39% 34% 28% 72% 84% 7% 6% 4% 33% 35% 30%

© 2014 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 - Page 1 Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 Geography: Colorado RBS Sponsor: Data Collected: 10/04/2014 - 10/08/2014 High Point University () Release Date: 10/09/2014 Percentages

1 On November 4th, Colorado will hold its general election for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and other offices. How certain are you that you will vote in this election? 876 Registered Voters Ideology Cell Phone / Lan Region All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-2.2% Conser Modera Liberal Cell Ph Landlin Metro D Colorad Rest of Certain 88% 84% 93% 88% 73% 95% 86% 89% 90% Probably 4% 4% 3% 3% 7% 2% 4% 4% 4% 50/50 7% 11% 4% 8% 18% 2% 9% 6% 5% Will Not 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% Not Sure 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Registered Voters 100% 37% 37% 21% 32% 68% 57% 20% 23%

2 Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction? Or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? 800 Likely Voters Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.4% Male Female 18-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispani Asian/O Republi Democr Indepen Right Direction 32% 28% 35% 37% 27% 32% 31% 32% 32% 31% 40% 36% ** 7% 60% 28% Wrong Track 62% 66% 59% 53% 68% 62% 64% 60% 63% 63% 54% 53% ** 92% 31% 65% Not Sure 6% 6% 6% 9% 5% 6% 5% 7% 5% 5% 6% 11% ** 1% 8% 8% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 47% 53% 12% 11% 41% 36% 23% 77% 84% 6% 6% 4% 34% 32% 31%

2 Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction? Or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? 800 Likely Voters Ideology Cell Phone / Lan Region All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.4% Conser Modera Liberal Cell Ph Landlin Metro D Colorad Rest of Right Direction 32% 6% 36% 65% 32% 32% 35% 29% 27% Wrong Track 62% 92% 57% 26% 62% 62% 59% 66% 68% Not Sure 6% 2% 7% 9% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 35% 38% 21% 28% 72% 57% 20% 23%

© 2014 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 - Page 2 Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 Geography: Colorado RBS Sponsor: Data Collected: 10/04/2014 - 10/08/2014 High Point University () Release Date: 10/09/2014 Percentages

3 Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president? 800 Likely Voters Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Male Female 18-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispani Asian/O Republi Democr Indepen Approve 40% 35% 45% 38% 37% 44% 37% 38% 41% 39% 58% 48% ** 7% 81% 32% Disapprove 54% 62% 47% 52% 57% 51% 59% 54% 54% 56% 37% 39% ** 90% 13% 61% Not Sure 6% 3% 8% 10% 6% 6% 4% 8% 5% 5% 5% 12% ** 2% 6% 7% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 47% 53% 12% 11% 41% 36% 23% 77% 84% 6% 6% 4% 34% 32% 31%

3 Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president? 800 Likely Voters Ideology Cell Phone / Lan Region All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Conser Modera Liberal Cell Ph Landlin Metro D Colorad Rest of Approve 40% 8% 46% 82% 42% 39% 45% 33% 33% Disapprove 54% 91% 47% 12% 52% 55% 48% 63% 63% Not Sure 6% 2% 8% 6% 6% 5% 7% 4% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 35% 38% 21% 28% 72% 57% 20% 23%

4 Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Mark Udall is handling his job as United States Senator? 800 Likely Voters Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Male Female 18-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispani Asian/O Republi Democr Indepen Approve 39% 36% 42% 36% 32% 41% 41% 34% 41% 39% 41% 46% ** 9% 80% 31% Disapprove 52% 57% 47% 47% 52% 50% 55% 49% 52% 52% 46% 38% ** 85% 14% 56% Not Sure 9% 7% 11% 16% 16% 9% 5% 16% 7% 8% 12% 16% ** 6% 6% 13% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 47% 53% 12% 11% 41% 36% 23% 77% 84% 6% 6% 4% 34% 32% 31%

© 2014 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 - Page 3 Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 Geography: Colorado RBS Sponsor: Data Collected: 10/04/2014 - 10/08/2014 High Point University () Release Date: 10/09/2014 Percentages

4 Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Mark Udall is handling his job as United States Senator? 800 Likely Voters Ideology Cell Phone / Lan Region All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Conser Modera Liberal Cell Ph Landlin Metro D Colorad Rest of Approve 39% 9% 44% 82% 37% 40% 44% 34% 33% Disapprove 52% 85% 46% 9% 46% 54% 46% 58% 61% Not Sure 9% 6% 10% 9% 17% 6% 11% 8% 6% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 35% 38% 21% 28% 72% 57% 20% 23%

5 Is your opinion of the Democratic party ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of the Democratic party? 800 Likely Voters Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Male Female 18-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispani Asian/O Republi Democr Indepen Favorable 35% 28% 42% 35% 30% 38% 35% 32% 36% 35% 44% 44% ** 4% 81% 24% Unfavorable 48% 53% 43% 36% 51% 44% 55% 43% 49% 49% 40% 29% ** 84% 10% 48% Neutral 14% 16% 12% 25% 16% 15% 9% 21% 12% 13% 16% 18% ** 8% 9% 25% No Opinion 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 0% 9% ** 3% 0% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 47% 53% 12% 11% 41% 36% 23% 77% 84% 6% 6% 4% 34% 32% 31%

5 Is your opinion of the Democratic party ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of the Democratic party? 800 Likely Voters Ideology Cell Phone / Lan Region All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Conser Modera Liberal Cell Ph Landlin Metro D Colorad Rest of Favorable 35% 7% 39% 75% 30% 37% 40% 28% 31% Unfavorable 48% 83% 38% 10% 43% 50% 42% 58% 54% Neutral 14% 7% 20% 12% 21% 12% 16% 12% 11% No Opinion 3% 2% 2% 2% 7% 1% 3% 2% 3% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 35% 38% 21% 28% 72% 57% 20% 23%

© 2014 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 - Page 4 Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 Geography: Colorado RBS Sponsor: Data Collected: 10/04/2014 - 10/08/2014 High Point University () Release Date: 10/09/2014 Percentages

6 Is your opinion of the Republican party ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of the Republican party? 800 Likely Voters Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Male Female 18-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispani Asian/O Republi Democr Indepen Favorable 27% 30% 26% 27% 26% 23% 33% 27% 28% 28% 28% 22% ** 56% 6% 20% Unfavorable 45% 43% 47% 35% 47% 51% 41% 41% 46% 45% 48% 52% ** 14% 81% 44% Neutral 24% 24% 24% 35% 25% 22% 23% 30% 22% 24% 20% 20% ** 27% 11% 31% No Opinion 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 6% ** 3% 2% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 47% 53% 12% 11% 41% 36% 23% 77% 84% 6% 6% 4% 34% 32% 31%

6 Is your opinion of the Republican party ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of the Republican party? 800 Likely Voters Ideology Cell Phone / Lan Region All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Conser Modera Liberal Cell Ph Landlin Metro D Colorad Rest of Favorable 27% 55% 18% 4% 23% 29% 25% 33% 31% Unfavorable 45% 18% 51% 82% 38% 48% 49% 41% 38% Neutral 24% 24% 28% 11% 31% 22% 23% 24% 27% No Opinion 3% 3% 3% 3% 9% 1% 3% 2% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 35% 38% 21% 28% 72% 57% 20% 23%

7 If the election for were held today would you be voting for (names rotated) Republican Cory Gardner? Democrat Mark Udall? Or some other candidate? 800 Likely Voters Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Male Female 18-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispani Asian/O Republi Democr Indepen Cory Gardner (R) 46% 53% 40% 42% 46% 44% 50% 44% 47% 48% 31% 31% ** 84% 11% 43% Mark Udall (D) 42% 37% 47% 38% 45% 45% 40% 41% 43% 42% 54% 52% ** 9% 84% 38% Other 7% 6% 7% 11% 3% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 13% 6% ** 4% 2% 13% Undecided 5% 4% 6% 10% 7% 5% 3% 8% 4% 5% 3% 11% ** 4% 3% 7% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 47% 53% 12% 11% 41% 36% 23% 77% 84% 6% 6% 4% 34% 32% 31%

© 2014 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 - Page 5 Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 Geography: Colorado RBS Sponsor: Data Collected: 10/04/2014 - 10/08/2014 High Point University () Release Date: 10/09/2014 Percentages

7 If the election for United States Senate were held today would you be voting for (names rotated) Republican Cory Gardner? Democrat Mark Udall? Or some other candidate? 800 Likely Voters Ideology Cell Phone / Lan Region All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Conser Modera Liberal Cell Ph Landlin Metro D Colorad Rest of Cory Gardner (R) 46% 82% 39% 9% 41% 48% 40% 55% 55% Mark Udall (D) 42% 9% 50% 85% 41% 43% 48% 36% 33% Other 7% 6% 8% 4% 7% 6% 7% 5% 8% Undecided 5% 4% 3% 3% 11% 3% 5% 4% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 35% 38% 21% 28% 72% 57% 20% 23%

8 If the election for Colorado Governor were held today would you be voting for (names rotated) Republican Bob Beauprez? Democrat John Hickenlooper? Or some other candidate? 800 Likely Voters Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Male Female 18-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispani Asian/O Republi Democr Indepen Bob Beauprez (R) 46% 51% 42% 39% 48% 44% 50% 43% 47% 48% 35% 35% ** 85% 10% 44% John Hickenlooper (D) 44% 40% 47% 42% 42% 47% 42% 42% 45% 43% 53% 52% ** 10% 88% 39% Other 6% 7% 5% 9% 7% 5% 5% 8% 5% 5% 11% 8% ** 2% 1% 12% Undecided 4% 3% 5% 10% 3% 4% 3% 7% 3% 4% 1% 4% ** 3% 1% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 47% 53% 12% 11% 41% 36% 23% 77% 84% 6% 6% 4% 34% 32% 31%

8 If the election for Colorado Governor were held today would you be voting for (names rotated) Republican Bob Beauprez? Democrat John Hickenlooper? Or some other candidate? 800 Likely Voters Ideology Cell Phone / Lan Region All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Conser Modera Liberal Cell Ph Landlin Metro D Colorad Rest of Bob Beauprez (R) 46% 81% 38% 9% 39% 49% 42% 51% 54% John Hickenlooper (D) 44% 11% 54% 85% 43% 44% 48% 39% 37% Other 6% 6% 5% 5% 7% 5% 6% 6% 5% Undecided 4% 2% 3% 1% 11% 2% 4% 4% 3% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 35% 38% 21% 28% 72% 57% 20% 23%

© 2014 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 - Page 6 Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 Geography: Colorado RBS Sponsor: Data Collected: 10/04/2014 - 10/08/2014 High Point University () Release Date: 10/09/2014 Percentages

If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for (rotated) The Republican party's candidate? Or The Democratic party's candidate? for Congress in your 9 district? Or, will you vote for some other party's candidate?

800 Likely Voters Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Male Female 18-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispani Asian/O Republi Democr Indepen The Republican Party's Candidate 46% 52% 41% 41% 49% 40% 54% 45% 47% 48% 37% 33% ** 88% 7% 44% The Democratic Party's Candidate 40% 35% 44% 38% 34% 44% 38% 36% 41% 39% 52% 54% ** 6% 89% 27% Other 6% 7% 6% 12% 6% 7% 5% 9% 6% 6% 5% 6% ** 3% 1% 15% Undecided 7% 5% 9% 9% 11% 9% 4% 10% 7% 8% 6% 7% ** 4% 2% 15% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 47% 53% 12% 11% 41% 36% 23% 77% 84% 6% 6% 4% 34% 32% 31%

If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for (rotated) The Republican party's candidate? Or The Democratic party's candidate? for Congress in your 9 district? Or, will you vote for some other party's candidate?

800 Likely Voters Ideology Cell Phone / Lan Region All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Conser Modera Liberal Cell Ph Landlin Metro D Colorad Rest of The Republican Party's Candidate 46% 81% 40% 9% 40% 48% 40% 54% 55% The Democratic Party's Candidate 40% 9% 44% 85% 36% 42% 45% 34% 32% Other 6% 5% 8% 4% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% Undecided 7% 5% 8% 2% 17% 4% 8% 6% 7% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 35% 38% 21% 28% 72% 57% 20% 23%

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you and your family living there are better off or worse off financially than you were a year 10 ago?

800 Likely Voters Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Party Affiliation All Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.5% Male Female 18-39 40-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispani Asian/O Republi Democr Indepen Better Off 34% 32% 35% 47% 35% 34% 29% 41% 31% 34% 32% 39% ** 16% 54% 31% Worse Off 40% 43% 37% 31% 39% 42% 41% 35% 42% 39% 42% 43% ** 59% 19% 42% Neither 25% 24% 26% 19% 26% 23% 29% 22% 26% 26% 22% 18% ** 24% 26% 27% Not Sure 1% 1% 2% 4% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 0% ** 1% 1% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Composition of Likely Voters 100% 47% 53% 12% 11% 41% 36% 23% 77% 84% 6% 6% 4% 34% 32% 31%

© 2014 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 - Page 7