VOLCANO MONITORING IN THE PHILIPPINES

MARITON V. BORNAS Volcano Monitoring & Eruption Prediction Division Philippine Institute of Volcanology & Seismology

PHIVOLCS DOST Active, Inactive & Potentially Active Volcanoes of the Philippines

• 300 volcanoes • 20-30 Potentially Active • 23 Active

PHIVOLCS DOST VOLCANO MONITORING  Integrated strategies for indirect measurement of the condition of the magmatic system beneath the volcano for eruption prediction What happens beneath an active volcano until it erupts?

USGS  Normal phase - monitored parameters are within the background level  Magma intrusion- increased localized earthquake activity, increased steam/gas , ground swelling  Pre-eruption phase- intensifying volcanic activity  Eruption phase- hazardous surface volcanic processes TYPICAL ERUPTION PRECURSORS

• Increase in frequency of • Ground deformation; quakes with occasional uplift or subsidence felt events and • Fissuring accompanied by • Sulfuric odor and acrid rumbling sounds fumes • Increase in caldera • Fish kills and drying up lake/ fumarole/ hot of vegetation spring temperature • Phreatic eruptions, • Development of new increased steaming in thermal areas and craters reactivation of old ones • Crater glow

PHIVOLCS DOST PHIVOLCS DOST PHIVOLCS Strategic Initiative for mitigating volcanic eruptions: PROGRAM PROGRAM DESCRIPTION PROGRAM OBJECTIVES  PHIVOLCS’ core program for To provide timely warning and integrated monitoring of the country’s accurate prediction of volcanic most active volcanoes unrest / eruption in order to ensure  Efficient 24/7 operations of manned safe living of communities with Volcano Observatories, remote real- volcanoes time monitoring networks, end-to-end data acquisition systems, periodic CONTRIBUTING TO THESE field-based methodologies STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES NATIONAL  State-of-the-art technology 1. Provided highly accurate and application and systems automation, timely warning and information VOLCANO database development, technical capacity-building and implementation 2. Developed cost-effective MONITORING & of operational standards monitoring and warning system  High-quality geophysical, geodetic, WARNING 3. Effective, efficient systems, geochemical and other observation procedures, structures data  Establishing precursory patterns of 4. Highly responsive and volcanic unrest competent organization  Support volcano information, warning and eruption prediction services 5. Accurately predicted and simulated events

PHIVOLCS DOST National Volcano Monitoring & Warning Program: Strategies

 Operations & Maintenance of Volcano Observatories & Remote Stations Frontline monitoring services, on-site monitoring infrastructure and Human Resource in communities on active volcanoes

o 6 manned Volcano Observatories (Taal, Mayon, Bulusan, Kanlaon, Hibok-Hibok, Pinatubo) and 4 auxiliary Observatories o 7 Volcano Networks (including Matutum-Parker) comprised by 37 remote stations (seismic and repeater) o Current and future plans of expanding Bulusan, Kanlaon, Hibok- Hibok, Pinatubo and Matutum-Parker Networks, for renovation of various observatories, new networks in Batanes, Leyte, Mindanao for long-term preparedness

PHIVOLCS DOST VOLCANO OBSERVATORIES

PINATUBO VOLCANO OBSERVATORY Clark Airfield, Angeles City, Pampanga

MAYON VOLCANO OBSERVATORY Lignon Hill, Legaspi City, Albay

BULUSAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY Cabid-an, Sorsogon City, Sorsogon TAAL VOLCANO OBSERVATORY Buco, Talisay, Batangas

KANLAON VOLCANO OBSERVATORY Cubay, La Carlota City, Negros Occidental

HIBOK-HIBOK VOLCANO OBSERVATORY Mambajao, Camiguin VOLCANO MONITORING NETWORKS

to CVO

PHIVOLCS DOST VOLCANO NETWORK REMOTE STATIONS VTNP (Napayung BB Station)

MCL (Taal Main Crater Lake Physio- chem Station) VTMC (Taal Main Crater SS Station) PHIVOLCS DOST National Volcano Monitoring & Warning Program: Strategies

 Development & Upgrade of Volcano Monitoring Networks & Systems Adaptation of state-of-the-art instrumentation and techniques for high- quality and real-time data acquisition

o Broadband seismic, continuous GPS + tilt, continuous Gas/Hydromet stations o End-to-end real-time data transmission (Remote stationVolcano ObservatoryMain Office) using SST radio + satellite technology o Automatic multi-parameter data plotting and earthquake source location tools o Future total conversion to real-time multi-parameter networks

PHIVOLCS DOST PHIVOLCS DOST Advanced Instrumentation Systems, Remote Stations

Plume Scanner

Batteries Seismometer Data Logger Taurus GPS Receiver

ScanDOAS box Solar Panel Charge Controller Data logger and GSM modem

SST Radio

VTCA-Calbayog Observation Station Tiltmeter Advanced End-to-end Data Communications

Observatory sends Main Office receives data data to Main Office via satellite via satellite Remote Stations transmit data via SST radio

Near real-time data (<1 min delay)

Volcano Observatories receive data via SST radio Observatory Computers store and convert data Real-time Seismic Data Recording, Volcano Observatory

MAYON VOLCANO: December 2009 Eruption

PHIVOLCS DOST Real-time Seismic Data Recording, PHIVOLCS Main Office Real-time Visual Monitoring, PHIVOLCS Main Office

taal mayon kanlaon

resthouse kanlaon

202.90.128.66/~volcano_video/index.html Internet Portal, Real-time Volcanic Earthquake Recording Internet-based Real-time Monitoring Data

31 Aug 2012 M7.6 Samar EQ, recorded in Mayon 06 Feb 2012 M6.9 Negros Oriental EQ, recorded in Mayon

15 Oct 2013 M7.2 Bohol EQ, recorded in Taal National Volcano Monitoring & Warning Program: Key Projects

 Volcano Database Development \ WOVODat Globally-compliant web-accessible database of Volcano Monitoring data using the World Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) Database Schema

o w/ Earth Observatory of Singapore; Pioneer partner o Development of data visualization tools and web-based data entry tools for real-time updating of database from Volcano Observatories o Future automation of Volcano Monitoring data processing o Contribution to the WOVO’s mission to systematize the global Volcano Monitoring record for comparative research, decision- support needs of the global Volcano Monitoring Community

PHIVOLCS DOST • VOLCANO DATABASE SYSTEM: Web-based tools for volcano databasing

PHIVOLCS DOST • Internet-based processed data input to VDAS Server in Main Office

PHIVOLCS DOST National Volcano Monitoring & Warning Program: Strategies  G3 (Geophysical, Geodetic & Geochemical Monitoring & Studies of Active Volcanoes) Field-based real-time and non-real-time multi- parameter monitoring and research for defining correlating patterns of volcanic unrest

o Electromagnetics in Taal (Collaborative) o Resitivity in Taal (In-house) o Precise Leveling and EDM in Taal, Mayon, Bulusan o cGPS monitoring in Taal, Mayon o Geochemical monitoring of crater lake, spring, fumarole chemistry, pH, temperature o Volcanic gas flux monitoring

PHIVOLCS DOST (Geodetic) Ground Deformation Monitoring

The surface of a volcano often changes shape when magma moves beneath it or rises into its cone. The ground can change shape by rising up, subsiding, tilting, or forming bulges that are clearly visible to people familiar with the DOSTvolcano. PHIVOLCS USGS Ground Deformation Monitoring: EDM (Electronic Distance Meter) Surveying EDM survey at Mayon Volcano (2000) Periodic measurement of the distance between benchmarks tens to thousands meters apart using EDM. Shortening of EDM line indicates volcano inflation due to magma intrusion, lenghtening indicates volcano deflation.

EDM survey at Taal Volcano Island Ground Deformation Monitoring: Precise Leveling

Precise leveling measures elevation changes between benchmarks using high- resolution spirit levels. Changes in vertical and horizontal ground surface levels are usually related to magma intrusion.

Benchmark positions < 100m apart, required by high accuracy spirit levels. Ground Deformation Monitoring: Global Positioning System

GPS consists of a constellation of 24 satellites. Each satellite orbits Earth 2X a day at 20,000 km altitudes and continuously transmits positional to ground-based receivers. Changes in GPS positions (sub-centimeter resolution) can indicate magmatic activity. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Mayon 2006 & 2009 eruptions def inflation def inf d infl d predicted by inflation-deflation in GPS Baselines (medium-term)

From T. Bacolcol & GPS Team Geochemical Monitoring: Remote measurement via SO2 Spectrometry Gas sampling from a fumarole in Taal

Vehicle-mounted COSPEC

Vehicle-mounted FLYSPEC Geochemical Monitoring: DIFFUSE CO2 (collaborative) *March 2011 CO2 efflux led to Alert 2 in April 2011

March 24-25, 2011: 4,670 ±159t/d Mayon 2009 eruptions predicted by SO2 & seismic data (short-term) TAAL VOLCANO MULTI-PARAMETER MONITORING 2013

20 Seismic Events S / LT 10 0 Jan F M Apr M J Jul A S Oct N D 800000 MDA 600000 (count) 400000 200000 0 Jan F M Apr M J Jul A S Oct N D 100

Rainfall 50 (mm) 0 Jan F M Apr M J Jul A S Oct N D 55 20 50 45 10

40 % CO2 Temperature (°C) 35 Air / Lake 0 30

25 -10 Jan F M Apr M J Jul A S Oct N D 34 TAAL VOLCANO MULTI-PARAMETER MONITORING 2013 3.4 pH 3.2 Main Crater 3.0 via Alas-as via Calauit 2.8 2.6 Jan F M Apr M J Jul A S Oct N D

1.5 Lake Level (m) Main Crater 1.0 via Alas-as via Calauit 0.5 0.0 Jan F M Apr M J Jul A S Oct N D

34 Lake Temp (°C) Main Crater 32 via Alas-as via Calauit 30

Jan F M Apr M J Jul A S Oct N D

35 Tabaro Air Temp (°C) 30 Probe Hole Level (°C) 25 Jan F M Apr M J Jul A S Oct N D 35 TAAL VOLCANO GROUND DEFORMATION MONITORING 2013

3 2 - X = tilt down to West + X = tilt down to East 1 - Y = tilt down to South + Y = tilt down to North Panikihan Tilt 0 (µrad) -1 -2 -3 Jan F M Apr M J Jul A S Oct N D Upper Slope Lower Slope 6233.05 7267.65 New instrument 6233.00 EDM 7267.60 (m) 6232.95 7267.55 6232.90

6232.85 7267.50 Jan F M Apr M J Jul A S Oct N D 45

40 Probe 1 Main Crater Probe 2 Ground Probe 3 Temperature 35 Probe 4 (°C)

30 Jan F M Apr M J Jul A S Oct N D 36 TAAL VOLCANO GROUND DEFORMATION MONITORING 2008-2013

20 GPS Baselines VTDK-PTGY 10 VTDK-VTCT 0 VTDK-VTBM VTCT-VTBM -10 -20

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 240 200 Waterwells (cm) 160 Tuuran 120 Tibag Pulang Bato 80 Alas-as 40 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 35 30 Leveling (mm) 25 Calauit 20 Alas-as Sukol 15 New Eruption Site 10 Pira-Piraso 5 0 -5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 37

Volcano Alert Level Scheme

ALERT CRITERIA INTERPRETATION/

0 All monitored parameters are within No eruption is foreseen. (NORMAL) background/ baseline levels. 1 Slight increase in volcanic earthquakes, The source of activity is shallow or near crater. Entry (ABNORMAL) steam/gas activity, slight inflation. into PDZ is forbidden.

2 Elevated levels of any of the following: volcanic Probable ascent and intrusion of magma which may Elevated Level of earthquakes, steam/gas activity, ground lead to eruption within weeks or months. Entry into PDZ Volcanic Unrest deformation, other parameters.. is forbidden.

3 Relatively high and increasing unrest due to Magmatic processes underway and may lead to High Level of further intensified in volcanic earthquake, gas, eruption within days to weeks. Evacuation of hazard Volcanic Unrest ground deformation parameters zones. 4 Intense unrest characterized by earthquake swarms and tremors, many perceptible, high Low-level eruption in progress and may lead to Hazardous gas output, intense ground deformation. hazardous highly explosive eruption. Hazard zones may Eruption Activity may involve lava extrusion and dome be extended for a few kilometers or more. Imminent growth.

Highly explosive eruption in progress with 5 Hazardous eruption in progress. Flowing or falling billowing tall ash-laden eruption columns, in materials encroach into settlements. Additional danger Life-Threatening excess of tens of kilometers, widespread areas may be recommended as eruption progresses. ERUPTION dispersal of volcanic hazards.. Information flow: Normal Information flow: Eruption Mode Mode Department of Science and Technology PHILIPPINE INSTITUTE OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGY PHIVOLCS Bldg., C.P. Garcia Ave. U.P. Campus, Diliman 1101 Quezon City Tel. (02) 426-1468-1479; (02) 9271095 http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph

PHIVOLCS DOST