EanZ aE0 /20 Public Disclosure Authorized
ETHIOPIA Public Disclosure Authorized CALUB GAS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
Environmental Assessment Public Disclosure Authorized
March 1993 Public Disclosure Authorized
Public and Pri-ate Enterprise Division Eastern Africa Department Preface
This EnvironmentalAssessment was conductedas part of the preparation for the Calub Gas DevelopmentProject in Ethiopia. The Project Team comprised: Luciano Borin (Team Leader), Paul Ballard (Private Sector Development), Carine Du Marchie and Gerda Heyde (WID consultants),Tom O'Connor (Gas Field Geology), Thuvara Nayar (Refinery Operations), Harry Sasson (Privatization, consultant) Maurizia Tovo (Regional Development), Salman Zaheer (Financial and Economic Analysis, consultant).
The project will be located in the part of Region 5 traditionally known as the Ogaden. In view of the project implicationsvis-a-vis the fragility of the Ogaden's environment, both human and natural, a special sub-team, coordinated by Maurizia Tovo, was established to prepare an EnvironmentalAssessment. The sub-teamincluded the following consultants:Mohamoud Ayan (RangelandEcologist), Richard Hogg (Anthropologist)and Marino Martin (IndustrialPollution Specialist).
A number of visits to key areas and communitieslikely to be affected by the Calub Gas DevelopmentProject took place between May and December 1992. Discussionswere held with government agencies, donors and NGO's working in the region, as well as with traditional leaders, local authorities, women's groups and community members. The resulting report, therefore, reflects the knowledgeand wisdomof a large number of individualsthoroughly familiar with the area under study.
The draft report was submitted to the Government for review and approval, and it benefitted from the contributions of the Water Commission, the Ministry of Environmental Protectionand Natural ResourceDevelopment, the Ministry of Planning, and the Third Livestock Project (Ministry of Agriculture). The Oil and Gas Explorationand DevelopmentOrganization (Ministry of Mines and Energy) provided invaluable assistance throughout. Government's approval was given during Mr. Borin's visit to Ethiopia in February 1993.
The report outline follows closely the recommendationsof the World Bank's Operational Directive on EnvironmentalAssessments -(OD 4.01). The Mitigation Plan described in Chapter 5, however, goes probably beyond what was intended in OD 4.01, in that it containsplans for the establishmentof a special Calub CommunityDevelopment Fund. The purpose of the Fund will be not only to provide compensationfor any adverse environmentalimpact of the project, but to build on its positive impacts so as to spread benefits to as many local residents as possible. The MonitoringPlan presented in Chapter 6 and envisagedas an integral part of the Project, will pay attention to changes in the biophysical and socioeconomicenvironment, and at the same time represent an instrument of feed-back and evaluationfor the Fund.
iii Contents
Executive Summary ...... vi
Chapter 1 Institutional Framework ...... i Government ...... 1 Non-GovernmentalOrganizations ...... 1
Chapter2 Project Description ...... 3 Overview ...... 3 Components .. 5 Gas Field Exploitation ...... 5 Plant Constructionand Operation ...... 6 TechnologicalProcess ...... 6 Plant Description ...... 7 Townsite for Plant Employees ...... 9 Road Rehabilitation ...... 10
Chapter3 Baseline Data ...... 11 Setting .. 11 Bio-PhysicalEnvironment ...... 13 Climate . .13 Geology and Soils .. 14 Gas Field Geology .. 15 Natural Vegetation .. 15 Wildlife Resources .. 16 Land Use and Land Tenure . .16 Surface Water .. 17 Ground Water . .17 Socio-EconomicEnvironment .. 21 Demography ...... 21 Economy ...... 21 Socio-CulturalOrganization .. 23 Outside Interventions .. 24 Needs Expressed by the Population . .26 Infrastructure .. 27 Roads .. 27 Industrial Facilities .28
Chapter 4 EnvironmentalImpacts and AlternativeChoices . .35 Gas Field Exploitation .. 35 Plant Constructionand Operation. .37 Alternatives for Water Supply to the Plant and Townsite ...... 39 Alternatives for Townsite Location ...... 40
iv Townsite for Plant Employees ...... 42 Road Rehabilitation. . .. 43 Indirect Impacts: Socio-Economic Changes .. . 44
Chapter 5 Mitigation Plan.. .. 47 Bio-Physical Environment ...... 47 Gas Field Exploitation. . .. 47 Plant Operation and Construction.. .. 48 Townsite for Plant Employees. . .. 49 Road Rehabilitation. . .. 50 Socio-Economic Environment ...... 52 Employment Policies .52 Community Development .53
Chapter 6 Enviromnental Monitoring Plan ...... 55 Monitoring System...... 55 Natural Resources Component ...... 56 Socio-Economic Component ...... 57 Monitoring Unit...... 59 Duration...... 61 Budget...... 62
Annexes 1. Geofogical Maps and Cross-Section .64 2. Calub Community Development Fund .68
v Summary
Project Description
1. The Calub Gas DevelopmentProject will exploit the fossil fuel resources located at Calub, in South-EastEthiopia (Region 5, commonlyknown as Ogaden). Natural gas and associatedliquid reserves have been estimatedat 2.7 trillion cubic feet. The project will extract and commercializeliquid petroleumproducts (LPG, gasoline, keroseneand diesel), and re-inject dry gas into the reservoir for future gas use in a secondphase. The yearly output of liquid petroleum products from Calub is expected to be equivalent to about 10 percent of current petroleum imports. In addition to contributing to import substitution, the LPG and kerosene introduced into the market through the project are expected to mitigate the current fuelwoodconsumption, thus easing the pressure on the tree cover and possibly slowing down deforestation.
2. For purposes of environmentalassessment, the project can be divided into four componentsas follows.
(a) Gas Field Erploitation. The Calubfield has major reserves of natural gas in two reservoirs named Adigrat and Calub. The shallower Adigrat reservoir is composed of two thick sandstone beds named Adigrat A and Adigrat B (gas-in-placeis estimated at 13.8 billion m3 and 6 billion m3 respectively). The plan is to produce the Adigrat A reserves, maintaining the reservoir pressure by the addition of make-up gas from the deeper Calub reservoir.
Initial gas production will be at a plateau rate of 1.4 million m3 per day for fifteen years. Condensaterecovery from this gas is estimated to start at around 180 m3 per day, declining to 150 m3 after fifteen years; LPG recovery is projected to be around 115 m3 per day, decliningto 85 m3 per day after fifteen years. Of the existingwells (drilledby the Soviets), four are planned to be producing wells and three will serve as reinjection wells; an additionalproduction well will be drilled to obtain needed make- up gas from the Calub reservoir.
(b) Plant Constructionand Operation. Althoughdetails of plant construction and operationwill be finalizedby the contractor selected, the design of the plant will have to follow certain specifications. To begin with, because of the remote site and Ethiopia's lack of experience with this industrial process, only field proven processes and equipmentwith low maintenance requirements will be considered. And because of the arid climate, plant design will depend on air cooling and pressure changes to effect most temperature control, so as to minimize reliance on water for cooling purposes. As a result, the plant is forecast to require no more than 50m3/day of industrial water.
vi The gas collected from the Adigrat field reaches the separationplant at a pressure of 166 atmospheres and 1580 C temperature. To obtain LPG, the gas will be cooled to 200 C temperature, and condensed water removed, usingknockout drums initially,and a simplifiedJoule-Thompson system and molecular sieves later. The gas is thereafter fractionatedinto lean gas, LPG and condensatein a two-stageflushing column and a two- stage fractionating column. The condensate will be refined in a conventionalatmospheric distillation section, with productionof gasoline, kerosene and diesel oil.
(c) Townsite for Plant Employees. About 100 employees will be needed for day-to-day plant operation. Because housing conditions in the area are very poor, it has been proposed to build a townsitefor all permanent plant employees, where they could live with their families. The townsite will consist of about 100 single-familyhouses, plus a guest house. All houses will have the same basic features, including water and electricity (the latter, will be available at low cost from the plant). Some 500 people are expected to take up residence in the townsite, at least initially. Their water consumptionhas been calculated at about 70 m3/day.
(d) Road Rehabilitation. The remotelocation of the gas reservoir impliesthat a part of Calub products will have to shipped over long distances (Harar, the closest main town, is 595 km to the north). At thie.moment, any commercializationof petroleumproducts will have to rely on the Shilabo- Harar-Dire Dawa road. But the existing road is in a bad state of repair. Road rehabilitationis therefore essential. Under the project, the first 257 km (Harar-DegahBur) will be restored to secondary road standards, 220 km (Degah Bur-Kebri Dehar) will be upgraded to secondary road standards, 94 km (Kebri Dehar-Shilabo)will be upgraded to feeder road standard, and the dedicated road between Calub and Shilabo will be constructed to feeder road standards.
Baseline Data
3. The Ogadenis a semi-aridplateau area inhabitedby Somalipastoralists, stretching from the Gennale river in the west to the Somali border in the east (175,000 km2). The climate is arid to semi-arid with extreme rainfall variation. Average annual rainfall is 300-400 mm, following a bimodal pattern, but droughts of varying duration and intensities occur frequently (the last one was 1990-91). Average annual temperatureis 28.70 C.
4. The only permanentriver in the area is the Wabi Shebele, so the local populations depend on water harvesting (birkeds) and, especially in the project area, on ground water. Hydrological studies reveal two main sources of ground water: (a) "suspended" aquifers 30-50 m deep, which produce fresh water but in relativelysmall quantities, and (b) CretaciousFaf formationaquifers 180-200m deep, which produce brackish water but
vii with a sustainable flow of 3 1/sec. A number of deep water wells have already been drilled in the vicinity of Calub and used for the exploration activities, without any adverse effect on the environment.
5. Water shortage limits the quantity and quality of natural vegetation, which is generally a mixture of acacia and commiphorabush lands and shrub lands. Wildlife is present in small numbers due to the climate and to intensive poaching in the past, and no endangered species are recorded. On the other hand, cattle, camels, goats and sheep are numerous and represent the economic mainstay of the region, occasionally accompaniedby opportunisticcropping (maiz, sorghum). Informal trade with Somalia is the other main economic activity of the region, supportedby strong clan relationships and intensive traffic across the Somali-Ethiopianborder.
6. It is difficult to overestimate the damage to the Ogaden economy caused by the collapse of Somalia. With the almost complete interruption of trade, prices have increased, terms of trade have deteriorated and unemploymenthas shot up. The influx of large numbers of destitutes (up to 400,000), often generously assisted by local residents, has meant that fewer resources have to be shared by more people. Camps have been established in Gode and Kelafo to provide emergencyassistance to drought victims, refugees and returnees, but the increased population is straining the environment, which in some areas is already showing signs of stress. The only development(as opposed to relief) activity in the region addresses the main problems of rangeland management and veterinary care, but it can not address other concerns expressed by local people, such as inadequatewater supply, unemployment,and lack of access to health and education.
Options
Water Supply to the Plant and Townsite
7. Water requirements for the operation of the plant and townsite will be approximately 150 m3/day. Given the scarcity of water in the region, the source of water has to be chosen very carefully. Two basic alternatives are available: taking it from the Wabi Shebele river or obtaining it from wells. In the former case, the water could be piped or trucked to the plant. The cheapest alternative would be trucking it (US$320,000vs over US$1 million), but the road from Shilaboto the river would have to be upgraded. The main problem with taking water from the Wabi Shebele, however, is not the financial cost entailed, but the social and political cost. Although water requirements for the plant and townsiteare minimal with respect to the river flow, it is certain that farmers who depend completely on the river's water would not like to see their water taken away toward other territory, to the point that water tank vehicle traffic or maintenanceof the pipeline could be opposed. In addition, because the Wabi Shebele flows further south into Somalia,interference with its water regime could create a dispute over international riparian rights.
viii 8. Ground water can be obtained from shallow wells alimentedby alluvial aquifers or deep wells alimentedby formationwater. Alluvial aquifers are presently utilized by local residents and there is evidence that some of them are already under stress (decreased flow or quality) or have dried up. In addition, as they are recharged by surface sources, it is difficult to make long-termestimates of their reliable yield. Using alluvial aquifers for industrial purposes, therefore, is not desirable. Formation water, on the other hand, is available in large quantities either from the gas bearing reservoir or from a cretaceous Faf formation, and depth has limited its exploitation. Although water quality is such that a purification and desalinizationsystem will be necessary to bring water compositionin line with plant and townsiterequirements, deeper aquifers are the recommendedsource of water.
Townsite Location
9. Given the homogeneityof rangeland configurationand exploitationin this area, problems of water provision and waste disposal, and their technical solution, are likely to be similar at any point of the Calub area. Thus economic and social factors are accorded priority in determining the best location for the townsite. Two basic alternatives are possible: building the townsiteat the plant, much as it was done during the exploration phase using workers coming from the outside, or building it close to an existing settlement.
10. Building the townsite in the proximity of the Calub pl-antitself would probably be the cheapest choice, as maintenancecosts would be combined and transport costs minimal. But the social costs would be high, as workers and their families would find themselves isolated from a "natural" community and basic services (schools, shops) would be 30 km away, and setting services up for the exclusive use of the townsite would be both costly and politically unwise. In addition, it is important to keep a balance in the distribution of resources between the two main clans of the area. The Calub area is part of the clan territory of the Bah'Gerri. Shilabo, the nearest town and district capital, is inhabited also by the Makhahil. Citing the township at Shilabo, therefore would avoid inter-clan tensionsand also accrue benefits to the town as a whole, rather than only to plant employees. The specific location of the townsite should be discussed with local leaders.
EnvironmentalImpacts
11. Potentialenvironmental impacts have been divided into,two categories: direct and indirect. The former focus on the four project components identified above, giving special emphasisto water resources; the latter concentrateon socio-economicchanges in the project area, that is, within Shilabo district and along the main Shilabo-Hararroad.
(a) Gas Field Erploitation. Early in the life of the project, a detailed survey of each well-site will be made and required environmentalremedial work undertaken, thus cleaning up any debris from the drilling and casing of
ix wells which have not yet been absorbed by the landscape. The procedures required to re-renter existing wells and install production equipment are well-tested and should not present any major environmental risk. Moreover, the requirement-for safety reasons-to maintaina clean work place free of debris, serves to minimize any additional environmental impact beyond that which has resulted from the initial drilling of the well.
The production of natural gas is inherently a clean operation due to the chemical and physical properties of the gas and natural gas liquids in the Calub field. Gas and entrained liquids used for testing (not a continuous operation) are flowed through a burner designed to obtain as complete a combustionprocess as possible, with very little carbon monoxide or un- oxidized carbon (smoke) being produced. Therefore, the only outputs besidesconsiderable heat and vapor, are carbon dioxide and water vapor, all of which are largely environmentallybenign. The presence of highly inflammablehydrocarbons near a source of heat represents an explosive combinationshould uncheckedleakages occur.
(b) Plant Construction and Operation. As the Calub plant will be a simple refinery without cracking facilities, chances of pollution on account of phenolics are virtually nonexistent. By burning sulfur-free clean fuel gas for all heatingpurposes, overall emissionof partially burnedhydrocarbons will'be minimized, while evaporationwill be minimizedby limited bulk storage of products. Oil spillage and leakages, on the other hand, have the potential to cause considerablepollution.
Total liquid effluent leaving the plant is estimated at 10 m3/day. Failure to treat oil-contaminatedwater and to dispose safely of oil could result in soil pollution and possibly, in the long run, in pollution of shallower aquifers.
(c) Townsite for Plant Employees. Presently, no waste disposal systems exist either at the campsiteor at nearby settlements. The low standardof living of local people produces mostlybiodegradable waste, as high value-added products (e.g., plastic containers) are intensively recycled. A sudden population increase will produce higher volumes of waste which, without proper sewage and garbage disposal systems, will result in health risks associated with poor sanitary conditions, unpleasantodors and unsightly views. In addition, abandonedrefuse could attract wild animalsin search of food.
A larger concentration of people is also likely to imply a larger animal population. If animals are left to wander freely, as it now happens, they could damage crops and overgraze rangeland in the project area. Increased concentration of both the.human and animal population could strain existing water points, which rely mostly on the shalloweraquifers.
x Should wells dry out, and not be replaced by new wells, damage would be considerable and forced migration would occur.
(d) Road Rehabilitation. Road constructionwill cause te.mporarynoise and dust disturbance to people, animals and plants in close proximity to constructionactivities. On the other hand, there will be no significantloss of vegetation,which is sparse throughoutthe area, and no agrochemicals will be needed. Road design should maintainas much as possible existing crossflows and thus minimizetheir effect on the road structure.
About 150 people will be employed to work on each of the four stretches in which the road will be subdividedfor contract purposes. Construction camp sites need to be established in a way that minimizes adverse environmentaleffects (damage to cultivated land, excessive demand on water points). To the extent the labor force can be drawn from local sources, these impacts will be contained.
12. The Ogaden has long suffered from isolation and neglect. In this sense, the rehabilitation of the Shilabo-Harar road is expected to have a major positive impact. Truckers will bring in grains and other goods, thus lowering their price on the local market, while the local population will find it easier to market their products to larger markets. In addition, temporary and permanent jobs associated with project implementation will offer much needed employment opportunities, and will spur the creation of numerous ancillary activities.
13. Improved communicationand commerce, however,carry some risks. One is the nsk of spreading AIDS and other sexually transmitteddiseases. More in general, there is the risk of upsetting the indigenous social organization, by importing new ideas and by creating a new wealth (and therefore power) which may clash with traditionalvalues. Given the history of insecurity in the area, this risk should not be taken lightly. In spite of such caveats, most of the socio-economicchanges brought by the Calub project are expected to be positive, and the project has been hailed by donors and NGOs as a historic opportunityfor the Ogaden to start a long overdue developmentprocess.
MitigationPlan
14. Becausethe project will be implementedin a desertic, scarcelyinhabited area and it will rely on well tested technology, suggestedmeasures to safeguard natural resources are relatively straightforward. They are presented separately for each of the four componentsconsidered thus far. Mitigativemeasures for potentialdamages to the human environment, on the other hand, are seldom straightforward,because such damages are more difficult to foresee-let alone quantify-and because there is always an elementof unpredictabilityin human behavior. The action plan presented here is somethingmore than just a mitigationplan, as it endeavors to take advantage of the unique opportunity offered by the project.
xi (a) Gas Field Exploitation. Each of the wells will be equipped with sensitive pressure recording devices and valves which will close automaticallyin case of a sharp drop in pressure, thus limiting the risk of hydrocarbon discharge into the atmosphere. Monitor and valves will be connected to the main control center in the plant for continuousobservation.
Should any new wells be drilled, the drilling fluid should be recycled to the greatest extent possible not only for environmentalprotection but also for operating efficiency. The drilling fluid is water based; it should chemically treated to stabilize the water loss. As the chemicals utilized in the process are largely naturally occurring, they do not represent environmentalhazards.
(b) Plant Operation and Construction. The site (35 kin2 , including gas wells and the plant itself) will be surrounded by a double fence to facilitate safety controls; straight wire rather than barbed wire should be used to avoid hurting animals. Plant buildings should be as much as possible horizontal, rather than vertical, so as to minimizevisual disturbance and to avoid possible risk for aircrafts flying in poor visibility. Buildingsnot involving particular technical specificationsshould be designed to follow the local topology(tukuls) and use locally available material to the extent possible; this would containcosts and foster economic developmentin the area. Soil irrigation will make it possible to grow trees in the compound, thus maskingthe plant and providing shade.
By making plant design simple and compact (skid mounted modular construction)chances for oil spills and leakages will be minimal. Areas at risk should be paved with cement rather than asphalt, as asphalt is easily damaged by petroleum products; in addition, an open-ceiling drainage system should be built to collect eventual liquid leakage into a cement reservoir where it can be chemicallytreated. Proper maintenance is crucial to environmental safety. Therefore, technical assistance providedunder the project will have to emphasizeboth the "right" attitude among staff and the appropriatecompetence. Speedy procedures for the supply of spares and tools must also be established,requesting exceptions to standard governmentregulations if necessary.
(c) Townsite for Plant Employees. Because the creation of a township is likely to encourage additionalsettlement, water provisionfor the township should include water points for their use. As the water will come from the deeper aquifers which can sustain exploitationat levels much higher than those envisaged for plant and township needs, this should not be a problem. The exact location of water points should be decided through meetings with Shilabo's inhabitants, giving priority to the preference of women, who are traditionallyin charge of water.
xii A number of options for waste disposal are available. Because the fresh water table is only 15-20 m deep, septic tanks, underground cesspools, and even open dumps for solid waste, should only be built after a thorough analysis of soil permeability. Should. their use not be appropriate, sanitary landfills should be considered.
The quality of housingand the salaries of plant employeesare likely to be higher than those of most other local residents. To limit tensions, all Shilabo inhabitants should be allowed to share some benefits with township residents. Initial consultationwith local authorities suggesteda number of communitydevelopment actions, such as renovating/expanding the school and opening plant health facilities to all.
(d) Road Rehabilitation. Road rehabilitationwill require some 500 m3/km of water. Contractual agreements with the implementing company will specify that such need should be satisfied using only after consultation with local residents. Should new water points be needed, care must be taken not to make them an indirect cause of de-vegetation(by attracting large numbers of animals and people) or of inter-clan disputes. Water points should be distributed at regular intervals, and their citing closely coordinatedwith SERPV,who have been mandatedby the governmentto ensure the sustainable use of natural resources in the south-east rangelands.
Necessary restrictions on the use of borrow pits by contractors will be written into the contract documents. Typical restrictions include respect of agriculturalland, citing away from the road embankment,and thorough clean-up after excavation. Road rehabilitationwill pay particular attention to all aspects which may affect water availabilityor distribution, such as the constructionof appropriate side drains.
Any road accident involving truck transporting fuel can result in spills or even explosions. ConsideringEthiopia's very high rate of road accidents per km driven, measures to contain such risk should be contemplated, including lay-bys at fixed intervals to avoid obstructing the road in case of vehicle breakdowns and incentives to truck drivers to drive safely.
15. Expenrence with other operations in the region has shown that the active involvementof the local population and an equitabledistribution of benefits are essential if the project is to succeed. The most immediatebenefit from the project will be in the form of employment,with 150permanent positions (includingservice contracts)expected at the plant, in addition to some 750 temporary jobs during the constructionand road rehabilitation phase. Given the inability of the rangeland to sustain more intensive
South East RangelandsProject of the Ministry of Agriculture.
xiii exploitationand the recent massive arrival of people from Somalia, it is clear that new employmentopportunities will be the object of intense competition. It is recommended that the project's labor requirementsbe satisfiedprimarily by employingpeople of Somali ethnic origin, at all skill levels. Clan elders and traditional leaders should be able to advise on personnel issues so as to avoid potentially disruptive disputes over the allocation of jobs.
16. Regardlessof the efforts madeto recruit personnellocally, in the end employment will be for the lucky few. Unless benefits are spread more widely, the overall impressionamong the populationwill be that their wealth is making somebodyelse rich, while local conditionsremain dismally poor. Offering water, electricity, education and health care to all to all Shilabo residents is an initial step. It is believed, however, that it would be desirable to reach communitiesbeyond Shilabo, and to offer a wider range of development interventions. The Calub Community Development Fund (US$5.0 million) will therefore be established to ensure that people living in the project impact zone (150 km radius of Calub and 25 km on either side of the Shilabo-Hararoad) receive some direct benefits as a tangible result of the project, and that any negativeimpact of the project is minimized and compensatedfor. In addition, the Fund should enhance local identification with the Calub plant, thus indirectly contributing to its smooth operation.
17. In addition to broad environmentaland health issues of direct relevance to the project, such as AIDS education, the Fund will finance three types of micro-projects: light infrastructure (e.g., well rehabilitation), income generating activities, and basic social services (e.g., community based health). Assistance will be available either directly to local communities,or indirectly through NGOs and governmentagencies; in any case, the approach will be participatory. A CoordinatingUnit will be establishedto manage the Fund under the guidance of a Regional Steering Committee comprising representativesof the Regional Governmentand NGOs.
EnvironmentalMonitoring System
18. An essential component of the project mitigationplan is the establishmentof a comprehensiveenvironmental monitoring system for the project impact zone. In light of the potentialenvironmental impacts identifiedand of the mitigationplan proposed, this monitoringsystem should comprise a natural resourcescomponent and a socio-economic component. The natural resources component will monitor changes in the local bio- physical environment, including: vegetation composition/association(range condition), devegetation, water availability and quality, livestock movements and numbers, and roadside erosion/gullying. The socio-economiccomponent will monitor changes in the human environment, including:population density and distribution (includingsettlement patterns), availability of grains and other goods in local markets, livestock-grainterms of trade, economic activities (especiallyself-employment), health and education, traffic along the road, fuel use patterns and prices, and local attitudes toward the project.
xiv 19. Given the fragility of the environment, monitoring should be carried out not at fixed intervals but on a continuousbasis throughoutthe project life. The mandateof the newly established Ministry of Natural Resources Development and Environmental Protection makes it a logical candidate for the implementationof- the -system, but at present it would be unrealistic to expect the Ministry to be able to take over responsibilityfor monitoringactivities, as neither its meansnor its structurewould enable it to do it effectively. Once the Ministry becomes more firmly established,it will be possible to identify areas in which it may need strengthening to assume overall monitoringresponsibilities. The NationalEnvironmental Plan now under preparationwill address such needs, and it is hoped that before project completion the Ministry will be able to take an active role in the monitoring system.
20. For the moment being, therefore, responsibilityfor the monitoringplan will be as follows: a special MonitoringUnit will be established with responsibilityfor overall coordination and for direct implementationof the socio-economiccomponent, while SERP will be sub-contractedfor the natural resources component. SERP has already started collecting some of the needed data and plans to carry out its own environmental monitoring of the whole south-east rangelands. Contracting out to SERP the natural resources componentwould save both time and money, since it would be possibleto take advantage of their expertise, organization and equipment. It would also give SERP the means to carry out more intensive data collection in the project impact zone so as to achieve the desired level of detail.
21. The Monitoring Unit will be attached to the office of the Calub Community Development Fund both for practical reasons (sharing office space) and for strategic reasons (facilitatemonitoring of the Fund's activities). The Monitoring Officer will be administrativelyresponsible to the Fund's Coordinator. Technical assistance will be available to set up the system and for occasional trouble-shootingor specialized tasks; in addition, because the Calub Companywill be fundeddirectly by the IDA, World Bank supervisionwill monitor the plant compliancewith safety regulations. Quarterly reports will be submittedto the Regional Governmentand to the Ministry. The budget for the monitoring system is estimated at US$850,000 for five years; it is recommended, however, that the system is maintainedbeyond project completionand possibly as long as the plant is operating.
xv Chapter 1 Institutional Framework
Government
1. The Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE) prepared a comprehensivereview of the country's environmentalsituation (including population factors) for the recent UNCED conference (June '92). A high level steering Committee was mandatedby the government to formulate specificrecommendations on the establishmentof a national organizationon the environment, and a Ministry of Natural Resources Development and Environmental Protection was created during the first week of October, 1992. Dr. Mesfin Abebe, former Vice Minister of Agriculture,has been appointedMinister of the newly-establishedministry. Before October this year there was no particular governmental body in charge of the protection of the environment and natural resources. Certain activities related to environmental protection were undertaken by two different entities-the Ministry of Agriculture and the Water Resources Commission. Officials of these two bodies working on environmentalissues have been transferredto the new Ministry. The Ministry is in charge of overseeingenvironmental protection, meteorologicalservices, natural resources, forestry, water quality monitoring,water drilling and irrigation, and is also responsiblefor promoting a policy that would encourage people to respect the environment.
2. Because of its very recent establishment, the Ministry is still in the process of defining its structure and its priorities. The reform program for 1992/93 publishedby the Ministry of Planning indicates that most of its departments will be functional at the end of January 1993.
3. The national media-television, radio and press-have intensified their reporting on environmental issues and a series of environmentalvideos from UNEP has lately been screened on TV. Unfortunately, the majority of the population has very limited access to mass media. In addition, an EnvironmentalEducation Project has been operatingunder the Ministry of Education (with financial assistance from SIDA) since 1985 and is successfully completingits pilot phase. The plan of operationfor 1992-93includes phasing out of pilot research activities, promoting a national EnvironmentalEducation Program and initiating curriculum auditing.
Non-GovernmentalOrganizations
4. Some 25 NGOs are engaged in conservation work, mostly through bunding and afforestation, followed by general agriculture and livestock development. Relatively few,
1 however, are involvedin agro-forestry or other innovative aspects of conservation'. Their approach differs substantially from that used by the Ministry of Agriculture because they tend to place more emphasison communityinvolvement in decision-makingand they allow a greater flexibilityin activities. As a descriptionof all environmentrelated activities carried out by NGOs goes beyond the purpose of this document, what follows is limited to the only two NGOs in the country which focus exclusivelyon environment.
5. The oldest environmentalNGO in the country is the Ethiopian Wildlife and Natural History Society, which was formed about 25 years ago. The overall goal of the Society is to support research and the disseminationof information, and through these activities raise public and individualawareness about wildlifeand environmentalmatters. The organization has recently initiated a substantialprogram of environmentaland conservationeducation and communication. The goals of the program are:
* to develop a greater awareness and understanding of the interdependence between the people of Ethiopiaand their environment;
* to highlight environmental and conservation problems and to identify and promote their solution through lobbying;
* to encouragepositive changes in attitudesand behavior about the environment.
6. Growing attention to environmentalissues has lead to the establishmentof LEM2, the Environment and DevelopmentSociety of Ethiopia. LEM intends to work with other NGOs and grass-root organizationsto bring about changes "that will promote conservation and developmentof the natural resource base and the improvementof the living standards"3. Its main objectives are to sensitize communities and individuals on the principles of sustainabledevelopment, support an environmentaleducation program, and provide a forum for addressing issues related to environmentand development. The first activity of LEM was the organization of a Conference on Environment and Development between November 10-13, 1992.
More information can be found in Goran Bergman, 'An Environmental profile of Ethiopia', unpublished draft, 1991.
2 Lem means green or fertile in Amharic.
From: CRDA News, vol 3, no.4, Addis Ababa, August/September 1992.
2 Chapter 2 Project Description
Overview
7. The Government of Ethiopia is interested in commercializingfossil fuel resources located at Calub, in South-EastEthiopia (Region 5, commonlyknown as Ogaden),under the Calub Gas Development Project to be financed by the World Bank. Natural gas and associatedliquid reserves have been estimated at 2.7 trillion cubic feet, quantitycomparable with medium-sizecommercial deposits in other parts of the world. Additionalreserves have been identified, but not yet quantified, in the adjacent areas of Hilala and Shilabo, located to the west and east of Calub respectively.
8. The Calub gas field already has severalappraisal wells which have been drilled under the coordination of the Ministry of Mines and Energy. The proposed project is centered around the installation of an extraction and processing plant at Calub to process the condensate-richportion of this deposit. At this stage the prospects for larger scale natural gas commercializationare encouraging, but need to be confirmed by a detailed feasibility study which will be financed under the Project. In the first phase, therefore, the scope of the project will be limited to the extraction and commercializationof liquid petroleum products from Calub, and re-injection of the dry gas into the reservoir. Based on the compositionof the deposit, the plant is expected to produce:
21,000 tons/year of LPG 16,000 tons/year of gasoline 15,000 tons/year of kerosene 13,000 tons/year of diesel.
9. LPG and kerosene from Calub will be offered in urban centers as an economical alternative to fuel-wood and charcoal. About 94 percent of Ethiopia's energy needs are satisfied by bio-mass fuels of which fuel-wood, including that used to produce charcoal, contributes about 80 percent of the total bio-mass energy supply. The Ethiopian Energy Authority estimated total woody bio-mass energy consumptionby householdsat 32 million MT in 1990, with about 30 million MT consumed as primary energy and another 2 million converted to charcoal. Of this consumption,90 percent is rural and 10 percent urban.
10. The household sector accounts for about 82 percent of total energy consumedin the country, almost entirely from traditional sources, with electricity and petroleum products together accounting for about one percent of household consumption. The population is clearing the forests for agriculture, constructionand domestic needs. Current forest cover in Ethiopia is estimated at about three percent of total surface area, compared to about 40 percent at the beginning of the century. Deforestation is particularly acute in peri-urban areas. While peri-urban forests are rapidly disappearing,fuel-wood costs represent an ever
3 increasing share of an urban dweller's budget. The amount of LPG and keroseneintroduced by this project are expected to replace some 20 percent of the current national fuel-wood consumption. This represents an annual saving of some 20,000 ha. of forest.
11. The yearly output of liquid petroleum products from Calub is expected to be equivalentto about 10 percent of current petroleum imports and has a CIF Assab value of about US$ 16 million, at 1992 international petroleum prices. Based on import parity valuationof products, the internal economicrate of return of the Calub Project is estimated at 17 percent.
12. To complementits commercialand regionaldevelopment aspects, the projectincludes a number of support elementsaiming at creating an institutionaland policy frameworkwhich would facilitate project success. They are:
* technical assistance to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, to promote private participation in exploration and development, and to form the Calub Company;
* support for promotion and marketing of LPG in urban centers, including assistancein efforts to provide appropriatetechnology, to developand monitor national safety standards, and to implement public awareness campaigns to promote LPG usage and disseminatesafety practices;
* changes in the policy and regulatoryenvironment, such as the implementation of the announcedliberalization of road transportationtariffs; the adoption of a revised pricing formulafor LPG reflecting the economiccost of production, transportationand distribution; and the institution of mechanisms to allow foreign participants in the Calub Company to repatriate dividendstimely.
13. For purposes of environmental assessment, the project can be divided into the followingfour components(see next section):
(a) exploitationof the Calub gas field,
(b) constructionand operation of a plant at the field site,
(c) creation of a townsitefor plant employeesand their families,
(d) rehabilitationof the Harar-Shilaboroad.
4 Components
Gas FYeldExploitation
14. The Calubgas field was discoveredby Tenneco, an Americanoil company, in 1973. When it was clear that the discovery was dry gas, the Calub-1 well was abandoned utilizing standard oil field practices, and the entire concession, including the Calub discovery, was returned to the governmentthe followingyear. In 1981, the Governmentsof Ethiopia and the USSR entered into an agreementto develop the Calub field. As a consequenceof this accord, drilling operations have been underway in and around the Calub field for the last decade, includingthe constructionof a field camp and its occupationby between50 and 100 personnel. Most of the drilling activity has been completed, and the Soviet expeditionary team will be leaving Ethiopia in 1993.
15. The field is located some 20 km east of the Wadi Fafen, approximately150 km from the Somali border, at an elevationof 470 meters above sea level. The Calub field has major reserves of natural gas in two reservoirs named Adigrat and Calub. The shallower Adigrat Reservoir is composed of two thick sandstone beds named Adigrat A and Adigrat B. Original gas-in-placeis estimated at 13.8 billion cubic meters for Adigrat A and 6 billion cubic meters for Adigrat B. The project plan is to produce the Adigrat A reserves initially, maintainingthe reservoir pressure by the addition of makeup gas from the deeper Calub reservoir until the LPG and natural gas liquids have been depleted. Once a market for the gas has been developed, the remaining reserves of methane from both reservoirs will be produced.
16. The initial planned gas productionis at a plateau rate of 1.4 millioncubic meters per day for fifteen years, at which point 56 percent of the Adigrat A reserves of gas will have been produced. Condensaterecovery from this gas is estimated to start at around 180 cubic meters per day, declining to 130 cubic meters per day after fifteen years; LPG recovery is projected to be around 115 cubic meters per day, declining to 85 cubic meters per day after fifteen years. During this period, a total of 1.17 million cubic meters, or 50 percent of the initial liquids in place, will have been produced.
17. The deeper Calub reservoir (gas-in-place about 56.6 billion cubic meters) can potentially produce 5-6 million cubic meters of gas per day, i.e., four times the rate of the Adigrat reservoir. If this production were held constant for fourteen years, 53 percent of the original gas-in-placewould be recovered. At this productionrate, the total reservoirlife is calculated to be 29 years; however, there will be an exponentialproduction rate decline of 8 percent after the plateau productionperiod of fourteen years.
18. In additionto the exploitationof the reserves of gas and natural gas liquids at Calub, the processing plant to be constructed at Calub could serve as a central processing facility for similar fields which have been discoverednearby, such as at Hilala and Shilabo. Should delineation work on these discoveries demonstrate that they are capable of commercial production, it may be expected that gas from these deposits will be transportedto Calub for
5 processing. The Calub plant and townsite may thus serve as the center of a nascent hydrocarbon extraction industry in the Ogaden area.
19. Of the ten wells in the field, four are planned to be Adigrat producing wells, and three will serve as reinjection wells. The latter are to be utilized to re-inject the unused methane gas left over from the processing plant for purposes of both conservation and reservoir pressure maintenance. To make up for the voidage lost to production from the Adigrat, additional make-up gas will be produced from the deeper Calub reservoir and injectedinto the shallower, lower pressure Adigrat reservoir. An additionalproduction well will be completed for this make-upgas production purpose.
Plant Construction and Operation
TechnologicalProcess
20. The gas collected from the Adigrat field reaches the separationplant at a pressure of 166 atmospheres (166 Bar absolute) and 58 degree C temperature. In the separationplant, the pressure and temperaturewill be reduced to 90 atmospheres and 40° C, respectively, before routing the gas to a knockout drum to remove condensed water. The gas will be further cooled to 200 C to remove some more water in a secondknockout drum. Feed inlet condition to LPG separationplant is 90 atmospherespressure and 20° C temperature. The cooling and dehydrationthereafter are achievedby a simplifiedJoule-Thompson system 4 and molecular sieves.
21. The gas is thereafter fractionatedinto lean gas, LPG and condensate in a two-stage flashing column and a two-stage fractionatingcolumn. The lean gas is used as fuel and a small quantity, limited to the bare minimum required as per safetycontrol instrumentation, will be sent to the flare for complete combustioninstead of releasing it into the atmosphere. The LPG product is routed to storage and the recovered condensatewill be sent to further fractionation. The gas from the Calub field, after separationof water in two stages using knockoutdrums, is routed to the reinjectioncompressor without any separationfor finished products.
22. The raw condensate is heated first in heat-exchangersand thereafter in a regular furnace before flashinginto a simple fractionatorto produce fuel gas as an overhead product: IBP-160° C gasoline from the over-head reflux drum, kerosene and diesel as separate side streams, and 360° C plus residue as bottom product. The kerosene and diesel are steam stripped in separate columns to control their flash points. The fuel gas is used for heating purposes thereby avoiding the burning of residual fuel-oil for processing. The residue, dependingon its actual characteristics, will be blended into diesel failing which, it could be used for power generation in diesel engines.
4 This system works on the principle that expansionof gases througha small openingcauses cooling.
6 23. The gasoline stream will be further fractionatedinto light gasoline (IBP-700 C) and heavy gasoline (70-160° C). The heavy gasoline will be processed in a catalytic reformer to improve its octane rating. About 19 percent of this naphthawould become fuel gas and the remaining 81 percent, with about 90 octane number, will be blended with the light gasoline to produce finished grade gasoline without adding lead.
24. This process has been specificallychosen because of the extremely low reliance on the use of water for cooling purposes. The plant design depends rather, on air cooling and pressure changes to effect most temperature control. As a result, the plant is forecast to require no more than 50m3/day of water for these and related purposes (e.g., steam for cleaningpurposes).
Plant Description
24. The design of the Calub developmentplant has to take into account the following considerations:
* because of the remote site and the limited industrial development in the country, only field proven processes and equipment with low maintenance requirements will be selected;
*. because the project financial viability depends on 'liqcuid hydrocarbon production, the liquid recovery has to be as high as possible;
* because of transport problems5, each component of the plant has to be designed bearing in mind these limitations and also the fact that some parts will need exceptionaland periodic maintenancenot always available on site, and therefore might need to be re-shipped.
25. A general plant layout is shown in Fig. 1 on the next page.
26. The site, comprehensiveof the gas wells and the plant itself, will be located on a desert area of 7 x 5 Km (35 Km2).
Limitationsof transportby air includethe length and quality of the landing strip, and the maximum space and weight allowed on the aircraft. Limitationsof transport by road relate to the minimum radius of the curves, the width of the road (especially when crossing towns and villages), the maximum load admitted on bridges, and pavementconditions.
7 10
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7 Townsitefor Plant Employees
27. For day-to-dayplant operation,about one hundredemployees will be needed, roughly equally divided between unskilledand skilled or semi-skilled. In addition, some 75 semi- skilled and skilled positions will be created to fill service-contractrequirements.
28. In light of the fact that housing conditions in the area are very poor, it has been decided to build a townsite for all permanent plant employees, regardless of whether some of them may presently reside within a reasonabledistance from Calub. New houses should be ready for occupancy by December 31, 1995, the date at which the plant should start operatingon a regular basis.
29. The townsite will consist of about 100 single-familyhouses, plus a guest house for 20 persons. Calub personnelcan be divided into four categoriesaccording to the job (senior staff/management,supervisory staff, technical staff, and semi-slilled and skilledpersonnel). The houses will be built in simple architectural style in line with local traditionalhousing (e.g., tukuls, round constructionswith cone-shapedroof, possibly connectingmore than one together to reach the desired living standard)6. All houses will have the same basic features, includingwater and electricity. On the basis of the country average total fertility rate (7.5 births per woman), and assumingthat some employees will come unaccompaniedor with only part of the family, about 500 people can be expectedto live in the townsite. Estimates of water use and waste production are based on such a figure.
30. Water consumptionfor the township has been calculated at about 67.5 m3 per day7. Hydrologicalstudies indicate that locating a suitable source of ground water would not be a problem8. The water will be extracted with a diesel pump (using diesel produced by the Calub plant, which will be in large supply) and piped to a piezometrictank for subsequent distribution.
6 An exampleof this type of constructionis providedby the new offices of the SoutheastRangelands Project in Code.
7 Estimates are as follows: personalhygiene, kitchen, laundry & general cleaning 80 I/day/person x 500 40 m3/day drinkingwater 3 5 l/day/person x 500 2.5 m /day toilet, miscellaneous 50 l/day/person x 500 25 m3/day
For a discussionof hydrologicalresources see Chapter 3; specificrecommendations on this matter are presented in Chapter5, after a discussion of the expected environmental impact of altemative choices.
9 Road Rehabilitation
31. The remote location of the gas reservoir implies that a part of Calub products will be shipped over long distances. The distance from Harar, the closest main urban center, is 595 kmn,including 24 km of dedicated road between the plant site and the junction of the main road near the village of Shilabo. At the moment, any commercializationof petroleum products will have to rely on the Shilabo-Harar-DireDawa road. But the existing road is in a bad state of repair. Built in 1937 by the Italians as a service road, it has received very little maintenance and truckers are reluctant to use it because they fear damaging their vehicles.
32. Road rehabilitationis therefore an essential component of the project. The existing road may be dividedinto four sections: (1) Harar-Jijiga(101 km), (2) Jijiga-DegahBur (156 km), (3) Degah Bur-Kebri Dehar (220 km), and (4) Kebri Dehar-Shilabo(94 km). The first two segments are classified as secondary roads, while the last two are considered to be feeder and rural roads. However, the road is so badly deterioratedthat its whole length is functionally a feeder road. Relatively high traffic volumes and vehicle overloading are primarily responsible for this deterioration, compounded by the lack of adequate maintenance. Under the project, the road from Harar to Degah Bur will be restored to secondary road standards (6 m gravel road with 1 m shoulders), Degah Bur-Kebri Dehar, which carries comparablelevels of traffic, will be upgradedto secondaryroad standards,and Kebri Dehar-Shilabo will be upgraded to feeder road standards (6- m gravel without shoulders)9. Shilabo-Calubwill be constructed to feeder road standards. Detailed designs for the road works are not yet available.
33. It is difficult to quantify the economicbenefits to be derived from the rehabilitation of the Shilabo-Harar road. Savings on the delivery of humanitarianaid provide a partial estimate. In 1991, UN agencies and international NGOs spent US$ 5.8 million to airlift 14,582 MT of relief supplies to Gode, Mustahil, Kebri Dehar and Shilabo10. Had the road been in good conditions, and relatively safe, the price of moving those 14,582 MT of suppliesby truck (equivalentto about five trucks per day on the road) would have been about half as much. As it is reasonable to expect relief operationsto continue, albeit on a smaller scale, for some years to come, it appears that the savings on the cost of delivering humanitarianassistance would be enough to justify the investment. In addition, even with the present poor conditions, substantialcommercial traffic on the road (nearly 200 vehicles a day in the Jijiga-Degah Bur stretch), so rehabilitation is likely to bring a much larger volume of traffic. The economic analysis of road rehabilitation is contained in the Staff Appraisal Report for the project.
9 Source: BACTEC, FeasibilityStudy on Harar-CalubRoad Rehabilitation,Addis Ababa, 1992.
10 Computer print out provided by UN/EPPG 'Sumxnary Statistics as of 25/01/92'.
10 Chapter3 Baseline Data
34. Followinga general overviewof the Ogaden, environmentalbaseline data are divided into two categories -bio-physical and socio-economic. Given the arid nature of the region and the scope of the Calub project, the analysis of bio-physicalconditions places emphasis on water resources, especially ground water resources. Socio-economicaspects are also treated in some detail in light of the problems historically faced by the Ogaden residents in securing a safe and healthy life, and the potential disruption of their traditional way of life represented by the project. The ongoing tragedy of Somalia has added a new strain to the environment, both human and natural, and is therefore taken into consideration.
Setting
35. The Ogaden is a semi-aridplateau area inhabitedby Somalipastoralists in the remote south-easternpart of Ethiopia. It covers approximately 175,000 km2 stretching from the Gennale river in the west to the border with Somalia in the east. It is bisected by the Wabi Shebeleriver which divides the area into roughly two parts: the former El Kere area of the southern Bale Region to the west of the river and the Ogadenproper to the east. Both areas formed part of the Ogaden AutonomousRegion which was established in 1990 but which is now incorporatedinto the Somali Region 5, includingthe lowlands of Eastern Hararghe. The Somali Region 5 covers approximately240,000 km2.
36. The Ogaden is both the name of an area and the name of a people. The Ogadeniare comprised of several related clan groups who trace their descent from an apical ancestor, Ogaden. They are part of the Darod family of Somali clans. The dominantOgadeni clans in the area are: Reer Ali, Reer Haroun, Makhahil, Reer Amadin, Reer Ogus Koshin, Reer Warfar, Reer Ogus Nur, Ba'Gerri, Aulihan and Adain Ker. Within the immediatevicinity of the Calub Gas Field the two dominantclans are: Makhahil and Ba'Gerri (see Figure 2 on next page).
37. The project impact area is confined to a much smaller area than the Ogaden as a whole. While extensivelivestock movementsdo take place in time of drought, most Somali pastoralists move within a more restricted area delimited largely by their own and neighboring clan territories. The communities likely to experience the majority of the benefits and any possible negative effects of the Project are confined largely to within Shilabo district and along the main Shilabo-Harar road. Within Shilabo district the main communitiesare Debewein, Shilabo itself, Harat, Jirole, Lasole, and Dawa-el. Other than Shilabo, which has a population of about 5,000, these other communitiesrepresent small villages and hamlets often near to water points. In addition to this more or less settled population, there is a fluctuatingpopulation of nomads who move into and out of the area dependingon the season and local availabilityof grazing.
11 Figure 2
Map of Somali Clans Present in the Region
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12 38. Along the main road to Harar there are additional and much larger settled communities.These include, from north to south, the following (the northern limit is taken as the boundary of the SomaliRegion 5): Babile ( 5,000 inhabitants),Fafan, Jijiga (25,000 inhabitants),Kebri Beyah (3,000 inhabitants),Guyo, Gilo, Ararso, Obole, Higloley, Degah Bur (15,000 inhabitants), Garawe, Sasamane, Birkot, Sheikosh, Wichi-Wache, Galadid, Kebri Dehar (10,000 inhabitants), Lasole, and Shilabo (5,000 inhabitants). Note that the populationof the major towns is a rough estimate; the other centers are very small, often only one or two permanent houses. Also, the towns of Jijiga, Kebri Beyah, Degah Bur and Kebri Dehar have significantreturnee populations,which are not includedin these estimates.
39. To date there has been little extensiveresearch or data collection carried out in the Ogaden. What data is available tends to be extremelypatchy and to relate to particular sub- sectors of the economy, e.g., data collected by different missionsand survey teams sent to the area, often with very specific and limited terms of reference. Much of this data is out of date and has been overtaken by recent events in the area, in particular the influx of hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees/returneesover the last few years. The planning base is therefore wholly inadequateeven by normal African standards. For example, there is no accurate informationon livestock or even human population nor distribution of water points throughout the area. Any agency intending to work in the area must take this into account when planning interventions.
Bio-Physical Environment
Climate
40. The climate of the area is classified as arid to semiarid with extreme rainfall variations from season to season and from year to year. The isohyets closely follow the contour lines of the driest areas which may receive as little as 200 mm of rain a year, while average annual rainfall varies between 300 and 400 mm. The rainfall pattern is bi-modal, with the first "Gu" rains occurring in March, April and May providing 50 percent of the annual total; the second rains "Dayr" fall in October and November (see Figure 3). Droughts of varying duration and intensities occur frequently. Records kept since 1918 identify eight main droughtperiods: 1918-1919,1928-29, 1933-39.,1943-45, 1958-59,1970- 73, 1975-76, 1983-86and 1990-91. Localizeddroughts, however, may occur with greater frequency.
41. Temperaturevariations are not highly pronounced. In Gode, with an average annual temperatureof 28.70 C, the hottest month is March with a temperatureof 30.2°C while the coldest month is November with a temperatureof 27.7°C. High temperatures which are characteristic of the area reduce the effectivenessof the rainfall regime since considerable amounts of water evaporate before being used by plants. The prevailing wind is from the north-eastbetween October and April, and from the south-westbetween May and September.
13 Figure 3: Ogaden Precipitation
mm 120 100 r
60
40 _ ;
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
E KorahelKDover 3 yrs Godeover 13 yrs
e Gode 1990 @ Gode 1991
source: The Nomadic Areas of Ethiopia UNDP/RRC,1984 and field reports 1991
Geology and Soils
42. The dominant topographic feature of the area is a south-ward inclining, gently undulatingplateau with occasionaloutcropping of rocky hills, and alluvial out-washesin the north-westernborders. Some signs of soil erosion are present".
43. The geology of the area consistsof deposits from the cenozoicera in which invasion of sea water brought in sandstones,mud-stones, gypsum, anhydridesand conglomerates.The presence of numeroussalty depositswhich influencewater qualityis thereforea result of the parent material.
44. Soils of the area are largely xersols with a poorly developedtop soil horizon, and at times overlain with laterites. Calcium and gypsum are present to varying degrees and significantlyreduce the agriculturalpotential of the area. In areas where alluvial deposition of material has taken place such as in river banks and wadis, the presence of a shallow argillic horizon in combinationwith silt allows the cultivationof certain food crops, such as sorghum anidmaize.
African Development Bank, South-East Ranzelands Proiect, Staff Appraisal Report, 1989.
14 Gas FYeldGeology
45. The field is a large, gently folded, domal shaped anticline, with a down to the northeast fault along its northeastmargin (see Annex 1 for geologicalmap and cross-section). The shallower and younger Adigrat reservoir is Early to Middle Jurassic in age, and is comprised of two thick sandstonebeds, the shallower Adigrat A and the deeper Adigrat B sands, with an eight-meter thick shale which serves to separate the two reservoirs into independent, unconnectedreservoir chambers. The highest well in the field, Calub-3, is at the top of the Adigrat A reservoir at a sub-sea depth of 2253 m, with a gas/water contact at - 2307 m, and an aerial extent of approximately 49.4 km2. The reservoir contains gas originally in place of approximately15.2 billion m3 , at a temperature of 96.20 Celsius and a pressure of 297 bars.
46. Similar figures are present in the Adigrat B sand, with the top being located at -2298 m, the gas/water contact at -2328 m, an aerial extent of 33.7 km2, and an original volume of gas in place of 6 billion in3. The water saturation of both reservoirs' gas columns averages 21 percent, with the salinity of the formation water being approximately200,000 ppm NaCl equivalentconcentration.
47. The Adigrat reserves of gas are nearly sulphur-free, and contain 2.98 percent of propane and heavier gases plus small volumesof natural gasoline.
48. The deeper, Permian age Calub reservoir is encounteredat 312i m below sea level, with the gas/water contact at -3219 m, an aerial extent of 66.5 kin3, and an original volume of gas in place of 58.9 billion m3. The gas is much leaner than that of the overlyingAdigrat reservoirs, and contains very little of anything other than methane. The small amount of natural gasoline which is present is considerably more paraffinic than that of the Adigrat reservoir. Neither are asphaltic, and when distilled above 3500 Celsius, there is little more than solid paraffine left behind.
Natural Vegetation
49. The vegetation of the area is influencedby several factors including rainfall, soils, and intensity of land use. Water shortagelimits the quantityand quality of naturalvegetation and gives rise to a flora which has high tolerance to water stress. The range cover includes bare ground, grass clusters and browse, with occasional areas of shrub land where soil moisture is greater. The most common vegetation type is a mixture of acacia and commiphorabush lands and shrub lands-Acacia Nilotica,Acacia Senegal, AcaciaHormida, and Acacia Melifera are most common. Other importantspecies include: Commiphoraspp, Terminaliaspp., Balanites Aegyptic, and Ziziphus Mauritania. The nut producing species locally known as "yiib" (cordexia edilus) grows in the eastern parts of the area. The "yiib" tree has both economicand environmentalvalues, since it is an endangeredspecies, produces edible nuts and foliagehighly valued as browse for camels in the dry season. Grass species which are most abundantin the area includeAristida spp, Chryspogonspp and Dactelectinian spp.
15 50. Range condition varies from place to place depending on the degree of use and natural characteristics.Around most water points, the original vegetationhas disappearedas a result of continuoususe by livestock. Fuelwoodcollection around most settlementsis also another major contributor to de-vegetationand soil disturbance.
Wildlife Resources
51. The number of wildlife species in the project area is small and none of the 27 endangered species listed for Ethiopia is present'2. Intensive poaching in the past has reduced the numbers of wildlife, and has almost eliminated certain endemic species. The most common species found today are the Hyena, Gerenuk and Dik-Dik. In the past, elephantsand lions were found in the upper catchmentsof the Fafan river; however, all the elephants have been eliminated in the last few decades, and only a few lions remain. Crocodiles are found in the Shebele river.
Land Use and Land Tenure
52. Because of the arid nature of the environment, the most important land use is extensivepastoralism, at times combinedwith opportunisticcropping. Nomadicpastoralists with herds of cattle, camels, sheep and goats migrate through the area in a pattern largely determined by the availabilityof water and pasture. The system is conduciveto rangeland stability since it gives periodic rest to the vegetation to enable it to regenerate and/or recover. Opportunisticcrop production is practiced by agro-pastoralistsas a supplementto livestockproduction. This is done mainly on areas of better edaphic and climaticconditions. Valley bottoms, flood plains and runoff channels are used to grow food crops whenever conditionspermit.
53. Traditionally,while livestock is owned individually,grazing is owned communally. However, land tenure is undergoing rapid change in parts of the region as areas of grazing are enclosed by extended families. This has led already in some areas to individualizedand privatized land holdings, e.g., in the north of the region in Jijiga and Kebri Beyah areas. Even in the more arid areas, wherever cultivationis possible, land is increasinglyprivatized by individualpastoralists enclosing grazing areas. This has recently lead in the Harshinarea, to the east of Jijiga, to inter-clan conflict.
54. In the far south of the region in Shilabodistrict cultivationhas made few in-roadsinto the traditional pastoral land use system. While wells tend to be owned individuallyor by localized sub-clangroups, access to grazing is still generallyopen to everyone. Nevertheless, every clan has a general notion of a roughly delimitedclan grazing area. While other clans will not be excluded in times of plenty, when grazing becomesscarce tensionsbetween clans tend to increase.
12 Wold ConservationMonitoring Center, "BiodiversityGuide to Ethiopia," Cambridge,UK 1991.
16 55. Water developmenthas played a significantrole in the modificationof the traditional land use system, as it has opened up areas which were little used in the past for lack of permanent water. Boreholes, shallow hand-dugwells, and surface water storage systems have all been developed in different parts of the region. While in some areas this has had a generallybeneficial effect, for example, in opening up hitherto under-exploitedwet season grazing areas, in other areas it has lead to the growth of permanent settlements and a deteriorationin forage quality and quantity.
Surface Water
56. The most prominent surface water feature within the project area, and the only permanent river in the region, is the Wabi Shebele river which flows in a valley on the western boundaryof the project area some 85 km from Calub. In its natural state it has been determinedthat the river can irrigate about 10,000 ha. With the constructionof storage and regulation dams, however, its capacity is expected to increase considerably. At present, there is a dam under construction at Melka Wakana, upstream from Gode, to supply irrigation water for the newly constructed state farms on the flat uplands above the river valley. The Government is keen on starting a new irrigation scheme at Mustahil, over 120 km from the project area.
57. The water discharge rate varies from 7-8 m3/sec during the dry season, to over 300 m3/sec during the wet season. Mineralizationvaries from 0.3 g/l to 0.65 g/l dependingupon the flow rate (salinity increases as the flow decreases), which is comparableto treated city water. Suspendedparticles range from l g/m3 at low water to 71,000 g/m3 during flood.
58. Other streams and rivers, such as the Fafan and Jerer rivers, which originatein the highlands north of Jijiga and drain the southem lowland areas, are highly seasonal but important sources of sub-surface water (shallow wells) in the dry season. The Fafan flows 16 km west of the Calub camp, and seasonallyinundates the Korahe floodplainsouth of Kebri Dehar in good rainfall years. Surface runoff during the wet season can reach 5 m3/sec; at other times the river is dry.
59. The major developmentin surface water supply in the region is the constructionof cement lined cisterns or birkeds. This technologywas imported from Aden in the 1950s,and has opened up large areas of the region to all year round exploitationand settlement. This is particularly true of that area, between Harshin and Misrak Gashamo along the eastern border of the region, which has in the last 20 years or so experienced an explosion in the number of birkeds excavated for water storage. Larger birkeds can hold up to about 1000 m3. In the Shilabo area, however, there has been little developmentof cisterns.
Ground Water
60. Studies conducted by the Soviet company "Technoexport" in 1984 in the area of Shilabo and Kelafo report the followinghydro-geological stratifications and sequences:
(a) quaternary alluvial sedimentswith water-bearinghorizons,
17 (b) quaternary proluvial sedimentswith water-bearinghorizons, (c) local water confining stratum of pleistoceneupper Neogene sediments, (d) water bearing horizons of Tertiary Jesomma sediments, (e) Faf carbonate deposits water-bearingcomplex.
61. Two main sources of ground water can be identified. The first one (about 30-50 m deep) are a number of "suspended"aquifers tables, originatedby the alluvial, proluvial and pleistocenedeposits (a, b and c above). These aquifers produce fresh water. Their reserves of fresh water are difficult to calculate because they depend upon annual surface recharge and other climatic conditions. However, it appears that intensive exploitation of these aquifers pose two risks. In some cases, as the level of the water table decreases, fresh water would mix with brackish to saline water present below the clay floor on which the alluvial sands rest. In extreme cases, the aquifer would dry out. Anecdotalevidence suggeststhat both cases have already occurred. For example, an old man in Shilabo remembereda well which used to have enough fresh water "to wash yourself in it," but then the water decreased to be only enough "to fill your hand and drink," and finally the water became undrinkable.
62. The second source of ground water are CretaceousFaf formationaquifers originated from the tertiary Jesomma limestonesediment (d above). They are located 180-200m below surface and have an average productiverate of 30 m3 per day per well. The water obtained' from them is brackish to saline, with an average salt content of 13 grams per liter. Lack of dynamic level data on existing wells prevents a more accurate evaluationof the flow. But taking into considerationthe structure and the regional origin of the aquifers, it seems safe to conclude that all wells located in the Calub area which are more than 160 m deep, use the same large aquifer. Therefore, it could be possible to obtain flows of up to 3 liters per second without impoverishingthe aquifer, in so much as the volumes of water which are to be producedare very small in comparisonto the total volume of water containedwithin these aquifers in the Ogaden Basin area. A number of wells alimented by the Cretaceous Faf formationaquifer(s) have been drilled in the project area. Their characteristicsare described below.'3
* Lasole. This well was drilled by EWWCAto a depth of 137 m, and produces fresh water at the rate of 86.4 m3/day of fresh water, which is the present source of drinking for the Calub camp. Analyses of the water are not yet available.
* Dawa-el,42G. The well is located 35 km east of Calub, and 5 km from Lasole. It was drilled by SPEE to a depth of 295 m. The static water level is 115 m below the ground level, and the well is capable of producing at a sustained rate of 345 m3/day. Analysis of water quality has not yet been received, but it is brackish and will need treatment. Well logs indicate that three potentialaquifers are present in the limy clay intervals of this limestone
13 OGEDO, Calub Gas Field Development:Hydro-geological and MeteorologicalData,' AddisAbaba, November 1992. Additional data was obtained from the Ethiopian Water Works Construction Authority (EWWCA)and from Technoexport.
18 formation. It is likely that the shallower aquifers will be less saline, and should therefore be tested prior to final decisionson the use of the well.
0 Kebri-Dehar,wells 31G and 32G. These wells were drilled by SPEE 130 km from Calub, to depths of 70 and 60 m, respectively. Both encounteredwater- bearing zones in the Cretaceous carbonate formations, but the productive horizons were not common to both wells. Static water level is at 28 m in both wells, with sustainable production rates of 320 and 370 m3/day being encountered, respectively. Mineral content in the produced water of 31 G is 3.1 g/l which, although disagreeable, is potable. The water has a high magnesiumcontent.
* Calub camp area, wells 12G, 33G-38G. These seven wells were drilled in close proximityto the Calub camp for use during the drilling operations. All productive wells were in the depth range of 200-220m, and were productive from the Cretaceous limestones. The 33G well, drilled to 136 m, was dry. Static water level is in the range of 70-90 m below ground level, and their productive capacity ranges from 21 to 28 m3/day. Mineral content is 13 g/l, which is more than a third that of seawater. The water is non-potable, and hence presumablywas used for drilling purposes only.
19 I_T _ LOCATI I ON _ __TH WATF If R 'ATI I ( y _
S .N- Dii. N- 0 (1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(1(Cr id ) ( M) STNUC(K WATER l.lV El. . (11 t Is; *) Wl ll :;I A Itl: ~~~______(M ) ) _(HM)
6 0 1 3 00"N 2140 87 9. 30 A I t er aril t II Gyp1 t ;I V Debeweir 14425' 00"E '; Iri e, Not I-irI jui I . Bli. N-.2 ,425Ma .s I Debewein 60 23 '48"N 37 114 3 ) Al IIuV )a I Se di mrerIt, Ali,iridorned il;,- t o 2 SW. N-. D- I 0 13* 00 "E Ili ghi Sai nIII t y & D-2 1 5MaHa. I 27 14 13 3 - 2 1 3 . OliNN-I 6 30' 40"N 202 18 Flowing Alterirating Gyp-nlll M.trl & [,rtou Ston 3 Bfl. N-D.N-I 1 43 29 '47"E Well Beds, Abandoned due to Iligh Sal inity . _42SMa. s . I ( Art isian) O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 2 0o3O,O'N 30 18 18 Both boit N -. 1 For Cattle use,Saline C) ~~~4 Denan SW.N- 0 t43 29 47 "E 1 N-. 2 Could Be for Domestic use, I and N-. 2 425Ma .s .1 27 18 18 less Sa1line. - - Jirale SW.N 6 16'24"N 42 13 12 6 N . I Abandoeried duLe to liighI Salinity 5 I and N-. 2 0- 52 1and -. 4 22 1'1"E N . 2 Productive, Good Walter . 425Ma. s .1 24 13 12 6 ______
6 05'22"N 133 97 61.30 1.20 I.ess Salirie jroductive [or lluman 6 S hilIa bo 644110 45141"E Consumption. ______4__4- ______)Ma .sl.s______
7 LasolI 1o6 .- No 137 AL)About I Lr Pr o . ti l 'or dltil rin. (0) ';Si labo I= ConsumDt loni or- ____
REMAfKS. - Dri I I ing Shial low We lls Along P`31 am bed, especiall y arkound J i rile, is re Coinlurilndil e.
- Deep Penetration Of Shallow We)lls Will Resuilt 1111,5.i inty. - Recharge Of Ground Water Along Fafam Valley i:s Ili!,hl & FluLsh tile :Sallility (II t h- W.ater
- I'he Y Ie, l d OI Sh ll:: I I o w .1 I N- . 2 a t J i ra l e I:; li g, II . I I Fre sh . Socio-EconomicEnvironment
Demography
63. The Ogaden is one of the least developedregions of Ethiopia. Gode is the capital of the former Ogaden AutonomousRegion. Other main towns are Kebri Dehar (the historic capital), Warder and Kelafo. Official statistics estimate the region's population at 1.3 million (1989)'4 and Gode's population at 7,158 (1990)'5. But census figures may be grossly inaccurate owing to the nomadic nature of many of the region's inhabitants. A survey conducted in 1991 produced population estimates about one third lower than the official figures, putting the Ogaden population at less than one million'6. It should be noted, however, that the steady influx of refugees and returnees from Somalia makes any populationestimate rapidly obsolete. For example, the Project mission to Gode in February 1992 was informed that the resident population amounted to some 10,000 inhabitants in addition to which there were about 100,000 refugees and returnees from Somalia; by December 1992 the populationin the two refugee camps of Gode town was estimatedto be about 35,000.
64. Wars betweenEthiopia and Somaliain 1963/4and 1977/8for control of the Ogaden resulted in large out-flowsof Somali from the area, while the ongoing civil strife in Somalia has reversed the movementtoward Ethiopia. At least 400,000 people are estimated to have found their way to the Ogadenin the past two years. About two thirds of them are believed to be returnees, that is, Ethiopian nationals who had fled to Somalia, mostly during the Ethiopia-Somaliwars, and are now forced to come back. In the rural areas, about one third of the population are returnees who have come to stay with relatives and share with them their often meager resources'7. However, it is difficult to distinguish between refugees, returnees and local 'drought affected' victims-certainly, no distinctions are made in the three relief camps in the project area (Gode 1, Gode 2 and Kelafo).
Economy
65. The region's economy is essentially based on extensive livestock production. Althoughthe rangelandis not ecologicallyhomogeneous, in the southof the region it is more appropriatefor camels than for cattle. True wealth in the pastoral communitiesis measured in number of camels, and disputes and marriages are settled through their exchange. However, substantial numbers of cattle have been accumulated, especially during good
14 CSA, StatisticalAbstract 1988, CSA: Addis Ababa.
15 Results of municipalcensus as reported in 'Demographic Features and Profile or Urban Servicesin Gode Town' by Workshet Lamenew, National Urban Planning Institute, Addis, January 1991 (mimeograph).
16 Save the Children, An End to Isolation, Save the Children:London, October 1991.
17 Save the Children,op. cit.
21 rainfall years. Goats and sheep constitute about half of the total livestock (estimatedat 5 million heads in 1982)'" and are one of the most important sources of foreign exchange for the region, especially "blackhead"sheep which are highly prized by Gulf countries. There is a large scale 'unofficial' trade in livestock (especially small stock) with the Gulf via Somalia.
66. Camels, sheep and goats, and cattle are normally herded separatelyin order to utilize associationsof browse, grazing and water on the range. All species are brought within the vicinityof permanentwater in the dry seasons, but move to other areas when water becomes available in the wet seasons. Camels are normally herded in the driest places (they may be watered at a maximumof every fourteen days).
67. Crop farming is negligible owing to the lack of rainfall and inadequate water supply from wells and the Wabi Shebele river which, for much of its course, is deeply incised in its bed. Nevertheless, settled farmers can be found along the Wabi Shebele, particularly where it is possible to exploit seasonallyinundated areas, for example at Imi, Kelafo, and Mustahil or where pump irrigation has been introduced (e.g., state farms near Gode and Kelafo). Accordingto Save the Children, settled farmers could be as many as 80,000 (i.e., almost 8 percent of the population),while agro-pastoralistsare about one third of the rural population'9. Crop failure in purely rain-fed agriculture is very common (successfulcrops do not seem to occur more than once in three years), while the severe sfiortageof fuel, for supplyingpower and operatingpumps, has made it impossibleto obtain sufficientwater for irrigated agriculture on a reliable basis20. The two main crops are maize and, to a lesser extent, sorghum; the only cash crop, cotton, is limited to Gode State Farms.
68. Water development is crucial if the region is to become independent of food assistance. A reliable supply of water could dramatically alleviate the shortage of agricultural products and stabilize herd sizes, but any intervention to improve water availabilityneeds to be studied with extreme care because the rangelandis highly susceptible to environmentaldamage and because interventions to benefit one community may have disastrous effects on communitiesdownstream.
69. Both the economic and social life of the region are inextricablylinked to Somalia. The main non-pastoral activity is informal trade with Somalia, to the point that the Somali shilling is the preferred currency. For more than a decade, the pnncipal source of grain and
IS Bekele Teklu, wSome Economic Factors for the Preparationof Gode DevelopmentPlan', mimeograph,National Urban Planning Institute, Addis, November1991.
19 Save the Children,op.cit., p.32-34.
20 Presently,fuel has to be truckedfrom Assab,a distanceof over 1,500 km, makingpower supply in theregion one of the most expensivefor the EthiopiaElectric Power Authority. As a resultof diesel shortage,state farmsaround Gode and Kelafo could not be irrigated last year, and many settled farmers became dependent on relief. of most other basic commoditieshas been Somalia, from whose ports Ogadenilivestock has been exported to the Gulf countries. Many pastoralists in the Ogaden use water points in Somalia, and it is not uncommonfor wealthy residentsto have studied and own property in Somalia. Strong economic and clan relationshipshave meant a constant traffic of people across the Ethiopia-Somaliaborder.
70. It is difficult to overestimate the damage to the Ogaden economy caused by the collapse of Somalia. With the almost complete interruptionof trade, prices have gone up, terms of trade have deteriorated and unemployment has shot up. The influx of large numbers of destitutes, often generously assisted by local residents, has meant that fewer resources have to be shared by more people. ShouldSomalia gain peace and stability, it will take it a long time to re-build the economy sufficiently to absorb those who fled, so a significant percentage of refugees/returnees are likely to remain in the area. But the increasedpopulation is strainingthe environment, which in some areas is already showing signs of stress. In a land where recurrent droughtshave given ample warning of the inability of the ecosystem to sustain current stocking levels, it is difficult to imagine how self- sufficiencycan be achievedwithout a massive developmenteffort to diversifyand strengthen the economic base.
Socio-Cultural Organization
71. While Islam provides an important point of reference and Sharia law at least theoretically a basis for regulating Somali society, the key to an understandingof Somali social organization and ideas of communityis clanship. Patrilineal descent provides every Somali with a way of dividing his/her society into a hierarchy of increasingly inclusive kinshipgroups. In the Somali clan system every ancestor who has sons is at the same time a point of segmentationinto kinshipgroups and a point of unity in himself. Within Region 5 there are representativesof four major clan-families:Hawiye, Pre-Hawiye,Dir and Darod. The dominant clan-family in the Shilabo area is Darod.
72. Most of the time, Somalisonly operate at the lower levels of the segmentarysystem. Clan-families are too large and unwieldy to act as corporate entities. As a result, most individuals relate to smaller groups with a shallower time depth. The important levels of segmentationare:
Clan-Family
Clan
Sub-Clan
Jufo Group
73. The Somali terms for clan and sub-clan have no fixed definitions but are largely situationallydefined. At the lower levels of the segmentary tree are that group of closely
23 related kinsmen, called Jufo, who are primarily responsiblefor receiving and paying blood money.
74. Clanship expresses all that is strong and binding in Somali society. While clans do not strictly define particular clan territories, most Somali have a concept of a home area, in which their clan or sub-clannormally lives and moves. Generallythis area will be dominated by one particular clan. In Shilabo the town is divided into two parts: the northern part is dominated by Makhahil and the southern part by Bah'Gerri. Outside the town both clans have their own particular areas although there is, in practice, considerable interminglingon the ground. Calub is generally identifiedas the home of one sub-clanof Bah'Gerri, called Reer Adain Issak.
Outside Interventions
75. Apart from defence and security operations, by far the greatest official expenditure on the region has been for humanitarianrelief. This has varied in intensity during the past two decades, but hardly a year has gone by without some emergencyaction to bring in food and medicalcare. With the ongoing armed conflict in Somaliathe situationhas reached new depths of misery. In October 1992, an estimated 350,000 people were in urgent need of food, and death and malnutritionrates rivaled those of Somalia2" (see Figure 4). UN relief agencies active in the region have divided their responsibilities geographically, with the EmergencyPreparedness and PreventionGroup of the UnitedNations DevelopmentProgram (EPPG/UN) organizing aid deliveries in close collaborationwith the World Food Program (WFP) in the area south of Degah Bur, i.e., the Ogaden proper, and the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) focusing on the area north of Degah Bur (the old administrativeregion of Eastern Hararghe).
21 The situation was so bad, that it caught the attention of the mass media. See, for example: Jennifer Parmelee, 'Hom of Africa's OverlookedCrisis', The WashingtonPost, 28 October 1992.
24 Figure 4: UN Airlift Deliveries to Ogaden. 1992
MT assorted relief commodities 2,500 2,034
2,000 _ - 1,828 1,634 1,500 1,348 1,168
1,000 85 663 566
Eoo 0-I 22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Barre z Gode z KebriDehar = Kelafo mShilabo
Ogadenincludes Barre, Gode, Kebri Dehar Kelafoand Shilabo
76. The emergency food supply to the region carried out by internationalrelief agencies is one of the most expensive operations in the world because poor infrastructure and insecurity make it necessary to rely almost exclusively on airlifts. Last year, almost 6 millionUS dollars were spent by internationaldonors and NGOs to supply food to returnees, refugees and drought victims. Unfortunately, there is little hope of an immediate improvementof the situation. As a relief official put it, "the average duration of a refugee camp is seven years, and we do not expect this to be an exception."
77. Only two international NGOs are active in the Ogaden. Medecins Sans Frontieres (Belgium)operates feeding centers in Gode and provides limited emergency health care. Concern (Ireland) is based in Kelafo and has recently started operating in Gode. Their activity is relief oriented, but they are in the process of finalizing agreements for rehabilitatingan irrigation project near Kelafo which was originally started by UNHCR and the World Lutheran Federation. In addition, there is a newly established local NGO, Guardian, presently looking for funding for a food-for-workroad rehabilitationproject (the Dire Dawa-Dambal-Jijigaroad) and a small integrated rural development project for returnees in Kelafo district.
78. The only exceptionto two decadesof assistancein the form of relief is the South East Rangelands Project (SERP) financed by the African DevelopmentBank under the Third Livestock Project: SERP was launched in 1990 as a six-year project for the south-east rangelands covering most of the present Region 5. Its most important component is
25 veterinary care, but it covers also rangeland management, dry-land agronomy, livestock marketing, "light" infrastructure (e.g., small rural access roads, shallow wells, cisterns), extension, and communityand institutionaldevelopment. Its overall objective is to improve livestock production and food security while ensuring the sustainability of the natural resource base.
79. UNDP is in the process of preparing a comprehensiveplan for the economic and social developmentof the region with contributions from the African DevelopmentBank, FAO, UNICEF and UNHCR. The plan is to be comprised of initiatives to develop agriculture and cottage industries, and upgrade the infrastructure and quality of social services in the region. Ready availabilityof energy is an essential support element of the intended developmentinitiatives. This plan, however, is several months away from being completed. The UNDP mission in Addis Ababa has given its unequivocal support to the Calub Energy DevelopmentProject and the developmentimpact the project is expected to have in the region.
Needs Expressed by the Population
80. A needs assessment conductedby two multi-agencyteams in October 19921 points out that the problems in the Ogaden appear to be similar throughout the region. The field experienceof the EnvironmentalAssessment Team confirms this impression. Meetingswith local authorities (both traditional and elected), women's groups and assorted individualsin the main towns (Gode, Kebri Dehar, Kelafo) as well as in the villages close to the Calub gas field, produced more or less the same list of needs-and grievances. Below are the three most common.
(a) Access to water is generally the priority. The problem may be quantity, quality, or both. People in Harat (19 km west of Calub) complain about having to walk 6 km to the closest well in Jirale, but water from the Jirale well is abundant and of good quality. People in Shilabo (30 km east of Calub) have access to water at the edge of the village, but it is brackish water only palatable to camels; another well with apparentlygood quality water was drilled by the Ethiopian Water Works Construction Authority (EWWCA) three years ago, but the necessarypump was never installed and the well has been capped. In Lasole (16 km north of Shilabo) there is a well providing good water, but diesel necessary to operate the pump is not available on a reliable basis. None of the larger towns has access to enough water, and rationing is the rule rather than the exception.
This situation resulted in requests for new wells to be drilled, pumps to be repaired or installed, and enough diesel to operate the pumps as needed. It
22 United Nations Emergency Prevention and Preparedness Group in Ethiopia (with the Relief and RehabilitationCommission), 'Joint IniformalNeeds Assessmentof the OgadenAutonomous Region.' draft, Addis Ababa, November 1992.
26 would appear that solar or wind-operatedpumps are not known, nor is there an awareness that water can be desalinized.
(b) Lack of employmentopportunities is rapidly becominga major concern, with refugees/returneescoming to swell the lines of the unemployed. Several times it was pointedout that highlandersare routinely preferred to Somali for jobs in the civil service, even when qualified local residents are available or when the ability to speak Somali is an important part of the jobs. In Kebri Dehar, for example, not a single Ogadeni was reported to be on the permanent governmentpayroll.
Different solutions were envisaged by different groups, including the availabilityof credit schemes for micro and small enterprises, some form of affirmative action to increase the number of Somali speakers in government jobs, and creation of jobs in the private sector.
(c) Lack of access to health and education services was lamented by all. Only three hospitals are located in the Ogaden: in Gode, in Kebri Dehar, and in Kelafo;.they are all under-staffedand under-funded. Even when a nurse may be available, such as in Shilabo, medicinesare impossibleto find. UNICEF has been supplying medicines through the Ministry of Health, but their distribution appears to be hamperedby bureaucracy and lack of experience. Women in particular expressed their concern at the lack of pre-and post-natal care, and reported high maternal and infant mortality rates.
Infrastructure
Roads
81. The existingroad from Calub to Shilabo is a dirt road recently opened by the Oil and Gas Exploration and DevelopmentOffice (OGEDO)without reference to any road design standards. It passes through arid, flat to rolling terrain with very sparse vegetation. The sub-gradematerial is mostly fine sand and the gravel used for road constructionis not strong enough to supportheavy traffic. Side ditches and drainage structures are nonexistent,so that with heavy rain the road becomes impassable. This road requires complete reconstruction to feeder road standardsin order to support the expectedtraffic levels of 50 to 100 vehicles per day.
82. From Shilabo to Kebri Dehar, the road passes through a semi-desert area of thom bushes and acacia trees. The terrain is mostly flat with a few rolling stretches. The road passes through an area of historic significance(Korahe Meda, site of a famousbattle against the Italians). Subbase materials (varying from sandy clay to gravel) are of poor quality, resulting in widespreadcorrugation of the road surface. Drainage problems on this segment are minor.
27 83. The Kebri Dehar-DegahBur section passes through a hilly area with slightly more vegetation, crossing a small swamp near the village of Sheikosh. The rosadalignment could be improved and the road surface is deformed due to prevalent sub-grade and subbase failures. Masonry culverts and waterwaysare generally not in bad shape, but a few need to be replaced; side ditches have silted up due to lack of maintenance. Road width should be made uniforrmthroughout this section.
84. From Degah Bur to Jijiga, the road again passes through a relativelyflat terrain with a few rolling stretches. Starting at km 400 (from Calub), the road rises gently to reach the town of Kebri Beyah. From Kebri Beyah to Jijiga the area is undulating. Surface materials are naturally occurring materials nearby, varying from weak gravel to silty sand. This section of the road is more deteriorated due to the heavier volumes of traffic and the high axle loads it supports (nearly 200 vehiclesper day, largely associatedwith serving the needs of the nearby refugee camps). As a result, the road shows extensive base failure. Some drainage improvementsare also needed.
85. The road from Jijiga to Harar rises through flat and rolling terrain to the Karamara mountain pass. On the other side of the pass, the terrain is predominantly hilly and mountainous. This part experiencestraffic volumes of 250-350 vehicles per day, resulting in extensivepavement failure. Drainage structuresand side ditches need to be de-siltedand repaired, or in a few cases replaced. Realignment of the road will be needed on some sections to reduce steep gradients and hillside cuts.
Industrial Facilities
86. There are no industrial facilities existing in the project area. The only facilities are those supplied by the (then) Soviet Union more than ten years ago for their exploration activities. The Sovietcompound at Calub is some 1.5 Km away from the landing strip built for the drilling activities, along the road from Shilabo to the villages of Harat and Jirale. Both the landing strip and the access road are not paved, have not been maintainedrecently and for these reasons are very sensitive to weather conditions. Althoughprecipitation in the area barely reaches 350 mm per year, rain may be very heavy at times. Due to the impermeabilityof the soil, the road is easily transformed into a muddy river, makingdriving almost impossible. The landing strip presents neither overnight landing facilitiesnor a radio communicationsystem.
87. The camp is a square of 200 x 200 m surrounded by a barbed-wire fence that needs urgent maintenance. Four water wells (called 34G, 35G, 36G and 37G), drilled around the perimeter, provide water to the camp and the drilling sites. Each well is 200 meters deep and was supposedto supply 21 m3 of water per day. At present, only the 35G well is used and supplies 80 m3 of water per day. The water contains 13 g of salt per liter, but it is used also as drinking water.
Facilities in the camp include (see figure 5 for a map):
* a radio station (no telephone facilities are available in the area);
28 * a mechanicalworkshop for maintenanceof equipment and trucks;
* a small yard equipped with a bridge crane;
* an incomplete one-story building meant for the accommodationof workers (only peripheral walls are in place);
* some twenty prefabricatedmobile houses, generally in bad condition (e.g., leaking roofs, missing windows, cracked walls and floors), used to house workers and, recently, EPRDF soldiersprotecting the camp; four trailers have air conditioners and two are set up as shower rooms;
* a covered storage area for drilling materials and consumables;
* a fuel (diesel) depot with five 10,000 liters tanks in reasonably good conditions, but well below acceptable security standards;
* a power station with four diesel generators, of which at least one out of order;
* a recreation room and a small theater, plus a canteen.
* two latrines with very rudimentary, and unsanitary, septicpits at the edges of the compound; a previous septic pit, now full and covered, is nearby.
In addition, the compound is full of trucks and equipment, mostly out of order.
88. The camp and the drilling sites have been built and operated without any concern for the environment. The water has been taken in the quantities needed wherever available, without considerationto the possible effect on the water table and on the life of people and animals living in the area. No sumpshave been excavatedfor the safe disposalof industrial waste. With the exception of the latrines, all other waste material-both organic and inorganic-is simply abandonedwherever it is generated. As a result, the area is sparsely littered with metal scraps, plastic containers, cans, food waste, broken equipmentand parts, oil and diesel spills, tires, etc. There are no contingencyplans for spills of hydrocarbons and hazardous mnaterials,but it appears that no major spills have occurred so far.
89. Fortunately, because of the nature of the area and the type of work done so far (drillingand casing), this carelessnessdoes not appear to have caused any permanentdamage to the environment.
29 Figure 5: Existing Calub Camp Site
I I ow- e-r 1 MAINGATE fuel workshop statlonfe
vehicles deposit
deposit bridge crane
D r R7D
L ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~L
El= new buildings [never completed) C = canteen D = dormitory L =)atrne M meeting point R = radio S = shower T=theatre W = water tank
30 lF
}0 L iR:X . --- - 4|X" - ,
- = - g =Y w -:* f
_., - | '. i.Z__ - . ', ' .@
fi k ,_ .
, v . _ . ' _ .
' ' . ' - . '_ ' ' '
. . .. *__
w v *e;*'
_' - ',#
_ __ _
Calub wel l - - -
- - -
-- E- n - The main street in Shi labo (30 km west of Calub)
_ _ .
El#S'L@L; ;§St'zq _ __d ,11 1 | . I 1._ _
_ _ I The main welL in Shilabo The road between ShiLabo and CaLub (after exceptionaLLy heavy rain)
The piezometric tank at LasoLe weLL, the present suppLy of water for Calub Harat viLLage (19 km east of CaLub)
4
PLanning for a coLorfuL future: The HaLgan women's group in Kebri Dehar (HaLgan=StruggLe in SomaLi) Chapter 4 Environmental Impacts and Alternative Choices
90. Potential environmentalimpacts have been divided into two categories, direct and indirect. Impacts which can be expected to derive directly from implementingthe project as presently planned are examined first and in greater detail, focusing primarily on four possible sources of environmentaldisruption: the exploitationof the Calub gas field, the constructionand operation of the plant at the field site, the creation of a townsite for plant employees and their families, and the rehabilitation of the Shilabo-Harar road. Special attentionis devotedto the impact of the project on water resourcesand to alternativesources of water supply for plant and townsite consumption.
91. Regardlessof how much direct disruption is caused to the environment, the indirect impact of the project on local people will be considerable, primarily because of the relative isolation in which the Ogaden has thus far lived. Therefore, potential socio-economic changes in the project area, and possibly in the whole region, will be considered.
Gas Field Exploitation
92. The impact of having several thousands tons of supplies and equipment in place, semi-permanentfield quarters established, the constructionof roads and an air strip have already been absorbed by the environment. It is not likely that work undertaken during the course of the project will have any but a beneficialimpact on the environmentof the area.
93. Reservoir andfield reserves. The three reservoirs of the field (Adigrat A and B, and Calub) have been in their present state in excess of one hundred million years, and are thus in a state of equilibrium. The pre-project and project activities involve removing a portion of the contentsof the reservoirs, interchangingsome of the contentsbetween reservoirs, and changing the chemical compositionof the reserves through extraction, processing and re- injection. These are common oil field activities and pose no special problems at Calub.
94. Disposal of producedformation water. The pore-volumevoidage resulting from the ultimate depletion of the reserves of methane through production is replaced by saline formation water which migrates into the pressure sink created by the withdrawalof the gas reserves. The portion of the formationwater which co-existsin the pore spaces with the gas can be expected to be produced along with the gas. This, and its replacementby migrating formation water from outside the confines of the field, is a natural response to subsurface pressure disequilibriumwhich results from displacementof hydrocarbonsthrough production, and to a large extent it is reversible.
95. The saline formation water which will be entrained with the gas during production, will be separatedand recovered at the onset of the processingoperations at the surface. This
35 recovered formation water, with its high salinity of approximatelyfive times that of sea water, presents disposal problems in a semi-aridclimate. Potential solutions are examined below.
(a) Pumping the recoveredwater into a lined evaporationpit adjacent to the plant is one of the most economical solutions. Unfortunately, there is no practical use for the resulting salts, althoughthey could conceivablybe processedas a cottage industry for local consumption.
(b) Pumping the recovered formation water into waste disposal wells which reach aquifers below those which provide potable water, adjacent to the plant. Care must be taken not to contaminatethe potable ground water, and this can be difficult, but is commonly done when surface evaporation is not suitable. This is the most economic and practical solution at Calub.
(c) Desalinization,in which the resultingrecovered fresh water can be recycledand used to meet process requirements, fire fighting, and utility purposes. As in (a) above, there is no practical use for the resulting salts, although they could conceivably be processed in a cottage industry fashion for local consumption.
(d) Reinjection of the recoveredformation water back into the fonnation from which it was produced. This is the ultimateecological solution, but also expensive in as much as it requires a dedicated well, and a piping and pumping system for the water disposal separate from that dedicatedto gas reinjection. It is possible that the Calub- 10 well, which for geological reasons cannot be used for either production or injection at the Adigrat level, can be utilized for this process.
96. Of the options presented above, the last one (reinjectionof the recovered formation water back into the formation from which it was produced) is recommended. The Calub company will therefore be requested to carry out detailed studies for its implementation. Should this solution result unpractical or unfeasible, option (b) should be chosen.
94. Drillingfluid and debris disposal. In as much as the bulk of the drilling has been completed, only a minor amount of this type of activity is contemplatedduring the life of the project, and hence little impact is foreseen. The existing wells have had their cuttings, used mud and other debris dumped next to the individualwell gites, and over the intervening years, these debris have been absorbed by the landscape.
97. Existing wells. Early in the life of the project, a detailed survey of each of the well- sites will need to be made, and the required environmentalremedial work undertaken. This is good oil-field practice, in as much as these wells represent the product warehouse for the processing plant, and therefore will need to be routinely inspected, serviced, worked over and generally treated as valuableequipment. In the course of this, a concretecellar will be constructed around the well head, a cement work pad will be built adjacentto the well head to support the required equipment, a high pressure well head valve set installed, and protective cages and security fencesinstalled. The practical side effect of this required work
36 will likely be the environmental cleanup of debris which may have remained from the drilling and casing of these wells by the Soviet Expedition.
96. Completionof all wells. The equipmentrequired to re-enter the existingwells, clean them out, run a suite of diagnostic evaluation surveys, undertake the indicated remedial work, perforate and flow test the gas reservoir, and install and test the required production equipment, is the same as that required originally to drill the wells. The procedures involved, therefore, are similar to those utilizedin the drilling of the wells described above. Moreover, the requirement-for safety reasons-to maintain a clean work place free of debris, serves to minimize any additional environmentalimpact beyond that which has resulted from the initial drilling of the well.
98. The productionof natural gas is inherentlya clean operationdue to the chemical and physical properties of the gas and natural gas liquids with which the project is dealing. Furthermore, the liquids are paraffinic rather than asphaltic in composition. The well documented smoke plumes from the oil field fires of Kuwait, for example, were the result of the burning of asphaltic crude oil; for the reasons given, this is not likely to occur at Calub.
96. Testing and production of wells. The productive capabilityof each well needs to be known for efficient field operation; each well must therefore be extensivelyflow testedover a range of pressures and flow rates in order to determine its capacity to produce under various conditionsof demand, and flow-line back-pressures. To do this requires that each well be flowed to the atmosphere through a choke of variable size, while the well head pressure and flow rates are measured under stabilized flowing conditions. The gas and the entrained liquids which are produced as a result of this testing procedure are measured, sampled, analyzed and then flowed through a burner. The design of the burner is such that as complete a combustionprocess as possible occurs, with very little carbon monoxide or un-oxidizedcarbon (smoke) being produced. With complete combustion, the only outputs besides considerable heat and light, are carbon dioxide and water vapor, all of which are largely environmentallybenign.
99. With the completionof the testing of each well, the wells are connected to individual flow lines which deliver the production to a manifold system where the pressure is dropped to that required for the process plant, and processingbegins. For practical reasons, and for reasons of safety as well, this process must be as leak-free as possible. The presence of highly inflammablehydrocarbons, mixed with atmosphericoxygen under conditionsof high temperatureand pressure, in close proximity to sources of heat is an explosivecombination of catastrophic proportions.
Plant Constructionand Operation
100. The area in the immediate vicinity of Calub is basically uninhabited, with only pastoralists coming through from time to time with their animals in search of forage. There do not appear to be traditional paths used by herders, nor seasonal camp sites or sites with
37 a specialcultural/religious meaning. The landscapeis quite barren: only shrubs grow on the dry soil, with no permanent sources of water providing reliable 'relief against recurrent droughts, let alone the possibilityof cultivatingthe land. In terms of land use, therefore, the location of the plant (and the township) does not appear to pose problems.
101. As the Calub plant will be a simple refinery without cracking facilities, chances for pollution on account of phenolicks are virtually nonexistent. Similarly, emission of particulate matters through catalyst fines will also be virtually nonexistent. By burning sulfur-free clean fuel gas for all heating purposes, emission of oxides of sulfur, hydrogen sulfide, and overall emission of partially burned hydrocarbons will be minimized. The emission of hydrocarbons through evaporation will be minimized by limiting bulk storage of products to only seven days.
102. Even though atmosphericpollution will be limited to negligible levels, as explained above, there is the potential for pollution of the environment through oil spillageand leaks. By making the design simple and compact (i.e., skid mounted modular constructionto the maximum extent possible) and by installing closed recovery loops for spillages, however, the chances for such incidents will be minimal. Providing suitable training and monitoring procedures will enable plant staff to take prompt remedial measures for cleanup in the case of any accidental oil spills.
103. Regarding the liquid effluent leaving the refinery, all modern international industry practices appropriate to the specific Calub environment will be employed in the design, construction, maintenanceand operation to minimizeoil content, biological and chemical oxygen demand, and total suspendedmatter in the water dischargingfrom the refinery. For this purpose, internationallyaccepted standards (e.g., EPA or equivalent)will be adopted as the basis for comparison. In particular, dumpingof any oil wastes, constructionwastes or any other harmful materials will be avoided (see next chapter). The use of process water in the refinery will be minimized by using maximum air cooling and recirculation. A discussionof alternative sources of water for the plant and townsiteis presented in a separate section.
104. The total liquid effluent leaving the refinery will be known only after the design is completed. Water that is not contaminatedwith oil will be segregatedand recycled. All oil- contaminatedwater will be treated to remove oil, reduce suspendedmatters, and control the chemical and biologicaloxygen demand to produce an effluent that will meet internationally accepted standards (e.g., EPA or equivalent). A rough estimate of such effluent water is about 10 m3 per day; dependingon its actualcomposition, it will be recycled for the cooling system or routed to guard-ponds.
105. Regardinggases, release of unburnedhydrocarbons will be minimized:all the purge and relief gases will be collected and either used in the refinery furnaces or burned in the flare as per normal petroleum industry safety standards. Being virtually sulfur free gases, pollution on account of hydrogen sulfide or oxides of sulfur is not anticipated.
38 Alternatives for Water Supply to the Plant and Townsite
106. Water requirements for the operation of the plant and the townsite will be approximately 150 m3/day (see Chapter 2 for details). Given the scarcity of water in the region, the source of water has to be chosen very carefully. Two basic alternatives are available: taking it from the Wabi Shebeleriver or obtainingit from wells. In the former case, water can be piped or trucked to the plant. In the latter case, water can be obtained from shallower alluvial aquifers or deeper formationwater. Each alternative is examined in turn.
107. The Calub plant will be at 85 km from the Wabi Shebele. Estimates of the cost of building a water pipeline between the plant and the river are US$ 1.1 million for a 3" unburied pipe line, and US$ 1.7 million for a 4" unburiedpipeline. Trucking the water will entail three or four round trips a day, for an estimated US$ 320,000 a year, but it is likely that the road will need to be upgraded and therefore that cost added.'
108. The main problem with taking water from the Wabi Shebeleis not the financial cost entailed, but the social and political cost. People living along the river depend completely on the river's water because they are settled farmers. Althoughwater requirements for the plant and townsite are minimal with respect to the river flow, it is certain that they would not like to see their water taken away toward other territory, to the peint that it would be difficult to guarantee the safety of vehicles or the maintenanceof the pipeline. In addition, much of the economic life of southern Somalia depends water from the Wabi Shebele for irrigated agriculture. Any flow decrease could threaten the livelihoodof thousandsof people and possibly create a dispute over international riparian rights with the Somali population who live along the river further south. For these reasons, any interferencewith the water regimen of the Wabi Shebele should be avoided.
109. The second alternative available is to obtain water from wells-shallow wells for alluvial aquifers and deep wells for formationwater. Alluvialaquifers, being easy to access without expensive equipment, are utilized by local people. These aquifers tend to contain potable water through recharge by surface sources, which also accounts for the low mineral content of the water. Unfortunately,available data do not permit a precise estimateof the maximum amount of water which could be extracted from these shallow aquifers on a sustainablebasis. In any case, exploitablereserves wouldbe difficult to calculateand change over time, because these aquifers depend on surface recharge, i.e., on rainfall for replacement through down-slope movement, evaporation, seepage and human utilization. For these reasons, using alluvial aquifers for industrialpurposes is likely to be in conflict with local usage during the economic life of the project.
110. Formation water is theoretically available from two sources: the cretaceous Faf formation and the gas bearing reservoir. Both the Adigrat and Calub reservoir contain highly saline connate water which may be expected to be produced as a by-product of
23 Estimates by GeoTechnip, Project Feasibility Study, October 1992. commercialgas. This produced water offers the possibilityof desalinization,but its mineral content, in excess of 200 g/l (i.e., five times that of sea water), makes desalinizationan expensive process. In addition, there remains the problem of residual salt disposal.
111. The most widely developed, near-surface aquifers are the limy-clays and marl interbeds of the Faf limestone formation of cretaceous age. The mineral content of the formation water from these aquifers is in the 10-15 g/l range, but in topographicallylow- lying areas where infiltrationof surface water is possible, the mineral content is commonly diluted to the 3-5 g/1 range. Whether dilutedwith surface water or not, the formationwater is characterizedby high calcium, magnesium,sulphate and bicarbonate ions, in addition to the more common sodium and chlorine ions which are associated with surface water.
112. Residents in the Calub/Shilaboarea have reported instances in which shallow wells have dried up or their water has become undrinkable,thus it appears that the upper aquifers are already under stress. The continuousinflux of people coming from Somalia is expected to further strain the capacityof the existingfresh water wells fed by the upper aquifers. The deeper aquifers, on the other hand, have a much larger capacity and their depth has limited their exploitationto date. Relying on these aquifers for plant and township water supply, therefore, represents the most viable choice, provideda water depurationand desalinization system are installed to bring water composition in line with plant requirements. Recommendationsfor the necessary steps are provided in the following chapter.
Alternatives for Townsite Location
113. Given the homogeneity of rangeland configuration and exploitation in this area, problems of water provision and waste disposal, and their technical solution, are likely to be similar at any point in the Calub area. Thus, economic and social factors are accorded priority in determining the best location for the townsite. There are two options possible accordingto the chosen form of work organization:
(a) Workers would remain a specaied period at the plant (say, one or two months) and then would spend a peniod away from the plant. In this case, the families would not follow them and only sleeping quarters with limited services (e.g., a canteen) will need to be built within the campsite, much as it was done during the explorationwork. Plant workers would live inside a small and insulated area and would not actively interact with the surrounding social context. The improvementbrought by the plant to living conditionsin the area would be minimal.
(b) A regular employment scheme would be adopted, with eight-hour shifts and weekly rest days throughout the year. In this case, workers would live with their families and a proper townsitewould need to be built. Potentialbenefits to the indigenouspopulation are far greater with this option. BecauseHarat, the closest settlementto the future Calub plant site, is quite primitive and on a road which would not tolerate increased traffic (and is not scheduled for
40 upgrading), two basic choices are considered: near the Calub plant or at Shilabo town24. They are discussedbelow.
114. Buildingthe townsitein the proximityof the Calub plant itself would probably be a better economic choice. Proximity to the work place would minimize delays and absenteeism;township maintenance would be combinedwith plant maintenanceand therefore be cheaper; transport costs of workers to the plant would be nil. But the social costs would be higher. Workers and their families would find themselves isolated from a "natural" community;for those coming from other areas, integrationwith the indigenoussociety would be very difficult, if not impossible; basic services such as a school and shops would be located 30 km away (no services area available in Harat or Jirale), and setting them up for the exclusiveuse of the township would be both expensive and politically inappropriate.
115. In addition, it is important to keep a balance in the distribution of resources between the two main clans of the area. The Calub area is part of the clan territory of the Reer Adain Issak, a sub-clanof the Bah'Gerri. It would be unwise to concentrateresources only within the territory of this one sub-clanwithout allowing for a wider spread of the benefits brought by the townsite. Because Shilabo is inhabited by both main clans, and it is the district capital, its choice as a location for the townsite would be more acceptable. There seem to be no major constrains in the location of the townsitewithin the village as there is no town master plan. Discussionbetween the companyand local leaders' will best identify the proper site.
116. Another argument in favor of locating the townsite near Shilabo rather than near Calub are the benefits that could accrue to the village as a whole, regardless of whether a member of the family is employed by the plant. As it will become clearer reading the following sections, these benefits are just as important for social/humanitarianpurposes as they are for political, and ultimately strategic, considerations. It would be unacceptablefor Shilabo's residentsto see resources flowingin and out of the Calubplant, leaving the village to be a passive spectator of the wealth accruingto others. Shilabo's residentsunderstand that exploiting natural gas ("their" natural gas) will generate profits, and expect something in return. Although some unrealistic expectations are bound to persist in spite of careful explanations, it is important that not all expectationsgo disappointed. Specific actions to take are discussed in the next chapter.
24 The town was built severaldecades ago when the Italiansset up a fort in the area and drilled a water well; following the defeat of the Italians, the Ethiopiansused the fort as a defense against Somalis. Today the EPRDF troops are still using the fort for security reasons.
25 Elders, membersof the Peace and StabilityCommittee and electedmembers of the Regionaland Local government,when the results of the electionswill be endorsedby the Central government.
41 Townsite for Plant Employees
117. Because the Ogaden population tends to have a low standard of living and few "modern" goods are available on the local markets, most of the waste presently produced is naturally biodegradable. High value-addedproducts which are not biodegradable-- such as plastic bags, cans and bottles-- are reused and recycled to the extent possible, so that very little solid waste is actually generated. Neither in Shilabo nor in the other smaller settlementsis there any waste disposal system, and whatever solid waste is produced, is simply abandonedwithout any regard for sanitation,aestethics or odors. The establishment of a townsite, however, will make waste disposal more problematic.
118. To begin with, the constructionand furnishingof the townsitewill create an unusual volume of solid waste; some of it may not be easily recyclable, and other may be too heavy or bulky to be disposed of without specializedequipment. The main problem, though, will be the daily production of waste once the townsite is completed and houses are occupied. While lack of any waste disposal system does not seem to have caused concern among local residents until now, it will be neither desirable nor sustainable with a sudden population increase. Withoutappropriate sewage and garbagedisposal systems, environmental pollution will result in a higher risk of diseases associated with poor sanitary conditions (e.g., diarrhea, cholera), unpleasant odors and unsightly views. In addition, abandoned refuse could attract wild animals in search of food.
119. At least during the initial period, the increase of both the town's population and its incomecould raise the number of cows, goats, sheep and camels, becauseownership of such domestic animals represents the only "banking, saving and investment" system known by most of the local population. If these animals are left to wander freely in the town, as is currently the case, they might encroach on the cultivatedland, eating and destroying crops. In the worst case, they would reduce the Shilabo's surroundingsto a virtual desert, as it has already happenedin areas around permanentwater sources. Solutionscould includebuilding pens to contain the animals, and building protective fences for cultivatedareas or for areas where heavyanimal traffic is expected. Dung producedby the animalsshould be considered an advantage rather than an environmental hazard, because it can be easily collected (especiallyif animals are enclosed) and used or sold as natural fertilizer.
120. Ethiopia is a country with endemic diseases, concentrated in different areas. Fortunately, in many cases local populations have acquired natural immunizationagainst those diseases most prevalent in the areas where they live. With the establishmentof a new settlementof migrants, however, diseases characteristicof other areas are likely to spread to local residents, while migrants will find themselves easily infected by locally endemic diseases. Risks of contagion will be higher in the absence of proper sanitation both for townsite residents and for Shilabo's inhabitants, especially in situations where close proximity between individuals is likely, such as in classrooms.
42 Road Rehabilitation
121. Road constructionwill cause temporarynoise and dust disturbanceto people, animals and plants in close proximityto constructionactivities. Significantamounts of subgrade and subbase material may need to be excavated and dumped along some sections. Good constructionmaterial must be identified,quarried, and transportedto the site. Quarry sites will be identified after materials survey during the design stage and are likely to be located on rocky outcrops. Quarrying will be carried out by excavation with wheeled loader if naturallyoccurring gravel of the correct goachingis identified. Otherwise,face materialwill be excavated by sippingor blasting, then crushed and blended to give the right proportions. Such quarries are likely to be relatively isolated from otherwise useful land and specific reclamation will probably not be necessary.
122. Road realignments and the placement and design of drainage structures will be designed so that as far as possible they maintainexisting crossflowsand thus minimizetheir effect on the road structure. The small wetland near Shekotch should be given special attentionduring design and construction. Design and constructionof the Harar-Jijigasection through more mountainousterrain will have to pay specialattention to erosion and landslide risks. Care must be taken to ensure that road constructionmaterials and blasting debris, if any, are not dumped on farmers' fields.
123. The road rehabilitation will not incur significant losses of vegetation nor will it ,directlyaffect any existing structuresin the impact zone. Due to the sparse vegetationthere will be no need to use agrochemicals in road construction or maintenance. With the exclusion of a "restricted hunting area" close to Harar, there are no protected areas in the immediate vicinity of the road and constructionactivity will not require any resettlement.
124. Constructionwater requirementsis roughly estimatedto be of the order of 500 m3/km Present informationindicates that this amount of water wouldbe fairly readilyavailable from natural sources which would not be excessively depleted (see also next chapter). Runoff should be minimal since the objective is to keep the water within the road constructionin order to raise its moisture content.
125. The constructiontechnology to be employed for the rehabilitation would use a mix of heavy and light equipment,skilled and local labor. About 150 people will be employed to work on each of the four stretches in which the road will be subdividedfor contract purposes. One third of the positions will be for drivers and tradesmen (e.g., masons, carpenters), while the other two thirds will be unskilled or semi-skilled workers. In addition, camp support activities, such as cooking, will require some fifty workers. Constructioncamp sites need to be determined and the environmentaland social impacts of these campsexamined. To the extent the labor force can be drawn from local sources,these impacts will be minimized.
126. Restorationof the road to motorable, all-weatherstandards will provide an important stimulus to traffic and developmentactivity in the surrounding communities. The directly project-related traffic increases (petroleum products transport) is estimated at about 25
43 vehiclesper day over the length of the road. This represents a relatiyelyminor share (about 15%) of the present traffic on the northern part of the road, but about 50% of the present level of traffic on the southern part (south of Kebri Dehar). No attempt has been made to estimate the traffic increase that may be induced by the vehicle cost savings resulting from road improvements. It appears likely that this traffic will increase, and the associated increase in economicactivity in the affected communities,could be very substantial.
Indirect Impacts: Socio-EconomicChanges
127. The title of the only recent published work on the Ogaden, "An End to Isolation", was aptly chosen26. For isolation is arguably the most important characteristic of the region-it explains its present situation and indicatesthe way to development. It is against a backdrop of geographic and political isolation from the rest of the country, therefore, that the expectedimpact of the Calub project has to be understood.
128. The relative isolationin which localpeople have been living has fostereda self-reliant attitude which has manifesteditself in both positive and negative ways. On the positive side is the fact that communities have not been waiting for the intervention of the central governmentto solve their problems; rather, they have relied on their strong traditionsto sort out local governmentissues and provide assistanceto their less fortunate members. In 1991 it was found that the majority of recent returnees from Somalia (some 210,000) were not registered by relief agencies and were living in the countryside with their relatives-some times very distant relatives. The fact that the nutritional status of the children of these returnees was similar to that of local rural children testifies to the generosityand the self- reliance of the people of Ogaden.
129. But the near absenceof a central governmentauthority has had its downsides. Inter- clan, and even intra-clan, fightingover grazing and water is common, and in the past it has proven difficult to control. Last year conflict betweenRer Barre and Ogadeniin the Kelafo area has allegedly produced conditionsof absolutedestitution when villages were burned to the ground. The general state of insecurity in the region has certainly deterred many truckers and traders from coming, thus raising the prices demanded by those who dared venturing in the depth of Ogaden. The presence of large military contingents sent by the central governmenthas been resented by many. However, it is undeniablethat the military and the local Peace and Stability Committees have made largely successful efforts to stamp out any signs of banditry or inter-clan conflict.
130. The rehabilitationof the road from Calub/Shilaboto Harar is expected to have a major impact on regional development, because it will help end Ogaden's isolation. The benefits derived from improved communication with Ethiopia's central regions can hardly be overemphasized, as the encouraging remarks made by all donors and local residents made clear. Road construction will bring temporary employment and income benefits to local
26 Savethe Children,op.cit.
44 people, probably mostly men, but with a multiplier effect on the welfare of women and children. In addition, there may be opportunitiesfor women to provide ancillary services to road constructioncrews, such as meal and drink preparation.
131. Private truckers, often reluctant to use the road in view of the inevitable damage to their vehicles and the uncertain security situation,will bring in grains and other goods, thus lowering prices on the local market. In addition to the direct benefits represented by the temporaryjobs created during the road upgradingphase, increasedtraffic will spur a number of service activities along the road, such as restaurantsand hotels. At the same time, it will become easier for the local population to market their products to larger markets. For instance, it will reduce time to export livestock from Ogaden through the ports of Zeila and Berbera. The net result should be an improvementin the terms of trade for local people.
132. While there is no doubt that easier access to the region is an essential condition for development,it should be rememberedthat it may also have negativeaspects. For example, one of the most popular products sold by local residentsat the road side is charcoalfor urban markets. The small number of vehicles on the road thus far has limited such commerce,but heavier traffic can be expected to result in larger quantities of charcoal for sale, with predictably bad consequences for the environment. Epidemiological studies show that heavier road traffic is also likely to contribute to the spread of AIDS and other sexually transmitteddiseases, brought in by travelers and propagatedby prostitutes.27
133. As a result of road rehabilitationand, to a minor extent, of plant construction and operation, there will be a considerable number of "foreigners" (that is, of people not of Somali origin) coming into the region. Inevitably, some aspects of "foreign" cultures will be adopted by indigenouspeople, either replacing the local culture or coexistingwith it. In this regard, the recent massive influx of refugees from Somalia may ease the process. In fact, a considerable number of them have rather sophisticated urban backgrounds and experiencein working abroad-many have travelled widely and worked in the Middle East. To the extent to which these refugees are being absorbed into the local communities,as it appears to be the case, they represent both an initial opening of the local communitiesto the outside world and a potentially dynamic force which will encourage further opening".
134. Ironically, it is the present influx of refugees from Somalia which may also pose the risk to damage the human environment, for the sudden availability of large numbers of qualified local people offers a challenge and a danger. The challenge is that their energies can be harnessed to develop the Ogaden economy, the danger is that they will grow disaffected because the opportunities for employment will not materialize. The Calub project, therefore, is likely to find itself in a difficult position,whereby new arrivals compete
27 Economic hardship and crowded refugee camps are likely to further exacerbatethis problem.
28 For a more detailed analysison the impact of refugees in the region see: Richard Hogg, 'Changing Mandatesin the Ogaden:The Impact of SomaliRefugees/Returnees on the UNHCR", paper presented at the Symposiumfor the Horn of Africa on the Social and EconomicAspects of Mass Voluntary Return Movementsof Refugees, Addis Ababa, 15-17 September1992.
45 with long-timeresidents for what will inevitablybe too few jobs. Avoidingthe dilemmaby employingnon-Somali would clearly not be an acceptable solution, so a compromisehas to be carefully crafted and maintained (see followingchapter).
135. Induced developmentactivities are likely to transform the socioeconomicsituation of the local people, including settled farmers, nomadic pastoralists and temporary residents (refugees). For instance, opening to the outside world means paving the way to innovations-new technologieswill be importedand new businesseswill be opened. A likely effect of economicdiversification and developmentwill be that some people will be able to accumulateprofits, and economic inequalitywill probably increase. Moreover, new wealth may not necessarily be distributed in a way that reflects traditional power structures, thus creating a new aristocracy (or rather, plutocracy). How society will adjust to this change is difficult to predict. On the one hand, the strong hierarchicalorganization of clans means that homogeneityamong clan members is not expected, and therefore the indigenousculture can tolerate considerabledifferences in socio-economicstatus. On the other hand, the fact that power will go to some people who do not have a traditional right to it may cause tension, including outright boycotts or violence29. One way or another, it should be remembered that, within close clan relationships, who has resources is bound to help the destitute, as exemplifiedby the assistance given to refugees.
136. In spite of the above caveats, most of the socio-economicchanges brought by the Calub project are expectedto be positive. The project has been.hailedby donors and NGOs as a historic opportunity for the Ogaden to start a long overdue developmentprocess. As mentionedearlier, better infrastructurewill boost commerceand trade, reliable availability of fuel will make it possible to adopt improved technologiesand to provide better quality social services, and new jobs will bring relative prosperity to many households. The approach detailedin the followingchapter should ensure that all these benefitswill be reaped with very little costs.
29 In this sense, events in Somalia offer an important lesson. The uneven distribution of wealth accumulatedthrough links with Siad Barre's regime has been an important factor is alienatingthe loyalty of northern clans.
46 Chapter5 Mitigation Plan
137. The purpose of a mitigationplan is to identify possible and cost-effectivemeasures that may reduce or eliminate potentiallysignificant negative environmental impacts. These measures flow directly from the discussion on environmental impacts and alternatives presented earlier. The organizationof this chapter, therefore, closely mirrors that of Chapter 4. The proposed mitigationplan consists of two sets of actions: those meant to avoid or limit damage to the bio-physical environment and those addressing the socio-economic dimensions of project impact. Because the project will be implemented in a desertic, scarcely inhabited area and it will rely on well tested technology, suggested measures to safeguardnatural resources are relativelystraightforward. They are presented separatelyfor each of the four projectcomponents - gas field exploitation,plant constructionand operation, townsitefor plant employeesand their families,and road rehabilitation. Mitigativemeasures for potential damages to the human environment, on the other hand, are seldom straightforward,because such damagesare more difficult to foresee-let alonequantify-and' because there is always an element of unpredictabilityin human behavior. The action plan presented here is something more than just a mitigation plan, as it endeavors to take advantage of the historic opportunity representedby the Calub project to.spur development in this long forgotten region.
Bio-Physical Environment
Gas Field Exploitation
138. Every precaution will be taken to eliminatehydrocarbon discharge to the atmosphere throughoutthe field. Each of the wells will be equipped with sensitivepressure recording devices, as well as down-hole pressure sensitive valves which immediatelyclose should a sharp drop in pressure be detected. Both the monitorsand valves are connectedto the main control center in the plant where they may be continuouslyobserved.
139. It is possible that for production purposes some new wells will have to be drilled within the Calub compound. For reasons of operatingefficiency, economy and conservation of expensive resources, as well as environmentalprotection, the drilling fluid should be recycled to the greatest extent possible after treatmentof the fluid's chemicalproperties, and the separationand removal of the drill cuttings. The latter, along with other drilling debris should be buried nearby, covered with soil and reseeded with native grass. It is essential that drill cuttings be buried only after having ensured that no irreversible damage will be done to ground water reserves in the area.
140. The drilling fluid is water based, rather than oil based, and therefore poses no fundamentalenvironmental problem. It should be chemically treated to stabilize the water
47 loss. As the chemicals utilized in the processes are largely naturally.occurring, they do not represent environmentalhazards.
141. Bearing in mind all the precautions that should be taken for debris disposal and drilling fluid depuration, it is not possibleto identifyany specific mitigationplan in addition to what is suggestedfor the compoundas a whole (see below).
Plant Operationand Construction
142. The site, comprehensiveof the gas wells and the plant itself, will be located in a desert area of 7 x 5 km (35 km2) surroundedby a double fence. To avoid hurting animals (both wildlife and domestic) straight wire rather than barbed wire should be used as fencing material. The total surfaceoccupied by the plant (productionunits, distributionarea, offices, warehouse, ancillary buildings, etc.) is about 13,000 m2, comprehensiveof the space for future expansions.
143. It is difficult to establish any architectural style or technological solution for an industrial plant that could match the local constructions and that would not disturb the environment. Because the proposed project offers different technical solutions, it would be preferable to select solutions that allow horizontal instead of vertical constructions,so as to limit visual disturbance. In addition, because of the proximity of an air strip, vertical construction would require the installation of warning lights for aircraft flying in poor visibility and would represent an unnecessaryrisk.
144. All the buildingsnot involvingparticular technicalspecifications (such as maintenance and service area, offices and canteen) shouldbe designed as much as possible following the local topology(e.g., tukuls, round constructionswith cone-shapedroofs). Given the remote location of the plant and the desirability of fostering economic developmentin the area, it is suggested that the basic constructionelement be cement blocks, which can be produced locally. This way, only iron bars and cement (the latter produced in the country)would have to arrive from outside the region, while sand and stones (almost 60 % of the content of cement blocks) suitable for the purpose can be obtained locally.
145. Becausethe soil is potentially fertile, it is suggestedthat the compoundbe irrigated. This would make it possible to grow trees and local flora, thus masking the plant and improvingthe living conditionsof the people working there, especially by providing shade and mitigating the strong sun light during the day. It is even possible that after a short period of time, birds would get used to the noise of the plant (produced by the flare, generators and others) and populate the trees inside the compound.
146. While atmosphericpollution will be negligible (as explainedin the previous chapter), there is potential for environmentalpollution through oil spills or leaks. By making plant design simple and compact (skid mounted modular construction to the maximum extent possible), and by installingclosed recoveryloops for spillages, the chancesfor such leakages will be minimal. The areas where minor or major leakage mightoccur should be pavedwith cement rather than asphalt, as asphalt might be easily damaged by petroleum products. The
48 design of the pavement should insure that there is no dispersion of fluids into the soil in order to reduce ground pollution. The general layout should take into account the construction of an adequate open-ceiling drainage system to collect the eventual liquid leakage into a cement reservoir where it can be chemicallytreated. For workers' safetythe drainage system should be covered by a grill. Moreover, providing suitable training and establishingrigorous monitoringprocedures will enable plant staff to take prompt remedial measures for cleanup in the case of any accidentaloil spills.
147. Very often poor maintenanceis due to lack of currency for the purchaseof the proper spare part or tool and/or to attitude problems among the work force. In the case of the Calub Project, improper maintenanceor lack of periodic replacementof the equipmentmay cause serious accidents (such as localized fires or explosions)and, in extreme cases, severe environmentaldamages (such as large fuel or gas spills). Therefore, technical assistance provided under the project should devote particular attention not only to teaching needed technical skills, but also to sensitize local staff. At the same time, speedyprocedures for the supply of spares and tools must be established,requesting exceptions to standardgovernment regulations if necessary.
148. Within the plant, detection equipment should be included in the basic plant design, such as careful atmospheric monitoring systems, as well as sophisticatedfire suppression equipment. Regrettably, through human, or other sorts of error, fire and explosions do occur despite such precautions from time to time. The plant therefore should be equipped with state of the art fire fightingequipment. A detailedand rigorous training program in its use to deal with such failures should be built into the project design, together with periodic fire drills.
149. As the existing landing strip will be retained, the new plant should be located in a way that reduces as much as possible the air traffic above it. In fact, any airplane accident involving the plant could easily have disastrous consequences.
Townsite for Plant Employees
150. Alternativesources of water for the townsitewere discussed in the previous chapter, concluding that the most viable option was obtainingwater from the deeper aquifers which will also serve the plant. Because these aquifers can sustain exploitationat levels much higher than envisagedfor plant and township needs, the project may also bring piped water to key locations in the village, so as to ensure that all Shilabo residents, and not just plant employees.andtheir families, have easy access to water for their household needs. This is especially important because the creation of the township is likely to encourage additional settlement, whose water needs could not be satisfied by water sources currently used by Shilabo residents. Specific sites for the installation of fountains and faucets should be decided through meetings with Shilabo inhabitants, giving priority to the preference of women, who are traditionally in charge of water supply. As the main well of Shilabo is presently being used also as a garbage dump, it is recommendedthat much emphasisbe put on training area residents in the proper operation and maintenanceof water sources.
49 151. Traditionally, waste is dumped into nearby areas. Without sewerage system, waste can often be stored in underground cesspools, which leach liquids into the soil but retain solids, or in simple sewage tanks, e.g., septic tanks30, in which organic matter disintegrates. Raw sewage could be treated before being dischargedas effluent, usuallyby reducing solid components to a semiliquid sludge. Sludge may be processed, e.g., as fertilizer. Most solid waste, such as townsiterefuse, can be depositedin open dumps. More sophisticatedmethods of disposalinclude the sanitarylandfill, where waste is spread thin and separatedby layers of tamped earth. Because the fresh water table is only 15-20 m deep, it is necessary to examine thoroughlythe soil permeabilitybefore choosing a waste disposal method among those mentioned above.
152. The quality of housing offered to plant employeesand their families will be superior to that of other area residents. This, and the likelihoodthat the incomes of plant employees will be higher than most, could easily generate tensions (see also following section). It is therefore suggested that, in addition to providing easy access to water, other measures are taken to enable Shilabo inhabitants to share benefits with township residents. Initial consultationwith local traditionalauthorities suggested the followingcommunity development actions: the present school should be renovated, refurbished and possibly expanded (presently, there are double shifts); and the local mosque should be renovated, and possibly expanded31. Health services for plant employees should also be made available to their families and area residents.
Road Rehabilitation
153. Quarries and borrow pits, as well as the dumping of excavated material from the existing road, will need to be managed to reduce safety hazards and minimize the loss of productive land and topsoil. The project's water requirementsalso need to be estimatedand compared to available water sources. Care will be taken to ensure that surface water sources and groundwater are not polluted by construction activities or by road runoff during the operating period.
154. Any necessaryrestrictions on the use of borrow pits by the contractor will be written into the contract documentsand borrow pit operations should be conductedto the approval of the supervisingengineer. Typical such restrictions would include:
* borrow pits should not be sited on agricultural or otherwise useful land (unlikelyany way, because the soil would be unsuitablefor embarkmentconstruction);
* borrow pits should not be sited too near the road embarkment, so as to create unstable slopes;
30 A sewage-disposaltank in which a continuous flow of waste material is decomposedby anaerobic bacteria.
31 It was suggested to renovate the old mosque rather to build a new one because of the cultural and sentimental value of the present structure.
50 * borrow pits should be left tidy after all excavation,with access slopes not exceeding 100;
* any excavated material run to tip should be located and spread to the approval of the SupervisingEngineer.
155. Given the importance of proper water management in the area and the uneven distribution of rainfall, particular attention should be paid to all aspects of road construction which may affect water availabilityor distribution. Where longitudinal gradient is flat or near flat, side drains should have off-shoots constructed at maximum intervals of 200 m. Where longitudinalgradient exceeds 1 in 20 and water volumes or velocities may lead to scouring, check dams should be constructed in the side drains at the following intervals:
Gradient (%) Interval (meters) | Masonry Check Timber Check 4 15 12 6 10 9 8 8 7 I 10 6 5
156. Paved fords of durable stone over the full width of the running surface shall be constructed flush with the creek channel gradient, 0.5 meters deep with 1 meter deep cut-off walls on the upstream and downstreamedges.
157. In areas where the contractor has to developnew water points for road construction, care must be taken not to make water developmentan indirect cause of de-vegetation,by attracting large numbers of animals and people. This risk can be minimizedby distributing water points at regular intervals. In addition, it is recommendedthat siting of boreholes for road construction be closely coordinated with SERP, who have been mandated by the governmentto ensure the sustainableuse of naturalresources in the south-easternrangelands. It is also essentialthat area residentsbe consultedbefore any water developmenttakes place, so as not to interfere with traditionalinter-clan relationships. As this is the approach adopted by SERP through its District ExtensionOfficers, close coordinationwith this project should ensure effective communityparticipation in the selection of sites for water points. It has already been agreed that the above recommendations will be part of the contractual requirements for the company implementingthis componentof the project.
158. Considering that Ethiopia's rate of road accidents per km driven is reported to be twice the African average32, and that the Harar-Shilaboroad has long straight stretchesand relatively light traffic, there is a real risk of accidentscaused by excessivespeed. Needless
32 WorldBank, wEthiopia Road Rehabilitation Project', StaffAppraisal Report, October 29, 1992.
51 to say, accidents involving trucks transporting fuel can result in spills that would have disastrous consequencesfor the environment. A number of measures to contain such risk should therefore be contemplated,and their feasibility explored. They include:
* establishinglay-bys at set intervals to avoid obstructing the road in case of vehicle breakdownsor stops;
* building physical speed control barriers;
* requiring fuel transportingtrucks to be equipped with speed limitingdevices.
* giving incentivesto truck drivers to limit speed and drive safely, e.g., through penalties for road accidents or prizes for safe driving.
Socio-Economic Enviroument
Employment Policies
159. While there is no doubt that development efforts are desperately needed in the Ogaden, the complex cultural traditions of the area call for extra care in attempting any intervention, especially an intervention of the size of the Calub project. Experience with other operationsin the region has shown that the active involvementof the local population and an equitable distribution of benefits are essential if the project is to succeed. As it was pointed out to the Mission by- several knowledgeablesources, "unless the people are with you, they will be against you, and the project will fail". From the point of view of local residents, the Calub plant will operate on their land, exploit their resource, and use their road. So it is logical that they will want to participate in the project and, especially, that they will expect to benefit directly from it.
160. The most immediatebenefit from the project will be in the form of employment,with up to 175 permanentpositions (includingservice contracts)expected at the plant, in addition to some 750 temporary jobs during the construction and road rehabilitation phase. Temporary jobs are expected to be as follows:
600 for road rehabilitation, 50 for plant construction, 100 for townsiteconstruction.
161. Given the inabilityof the rangelandto sustain more intense exploitationand the recent massive arrival of people from Somalia, it is clear that new employmentopportunities are likely to be the object of intense competition. The introductionof workers who are not from local ethnic groups, therefore, could present a variety of social problems.
162. It is recommendedthat the project's labor requirements(including road rehabilitation) be satisfiedprimarily by employingpeople of Somali ethnic origin, for both temporary and permanentpositions, and at all skill levels. The influx of large numbers of returnees should make it possible to find local people suitablyqualified even for specializedpositions, so only a few positions might have to be given to non-Somali. Clan elders and traditional leaders (sultans, ugas, garad, etc.) should be able to advise on personnel issues, so as to avoid potentially disruptive disputes between residents and non-residents,and among clans, over the allocationof jobs.
Community Development
163. Regardless of the efforts made to recruit personnel locally, in the end employment with the Calub plant will only be for the lucky few. Unlessbenefits are spread more widely, the overall impression among the population will be that their wealth is making somebody else rich, while local conditionsremain dismally poor. To begin with, worker housing and feeding arrangementsshould be carefullyplanned to maximizebenefits to local communities without putting undue demandson local resources, especially water and fuel. The intention of providing access to water, electricity, educationand health care to all Shilabo's residents rather than to plant employees alone (as mentioned above) is an example of this type of planning.
164. It is believed, however, that it would be desirable to reach communitiesbeyond Shilabo, and to offer a wider range of developmentinterventions. It is therefore proposed to establish a pilot CommunityDevelopment Fund of US$ 4.8 million. The main purpose of the fund will be to ensure that the people living in the project impact zone receive some 'direct benefits as a tangible result of the project, and that any negative impact of the project is minimizedand compensatedfor. In addition, the fund should enhance local support and identificationwith the Calub Plant, thus indirectly contributingto its smoothoperation. The fund should be initially set up with a grant, but later financed, at least in part, by the regional government through tax revenues from the Calub Plant itself.
165. A detailed description of the fund is attached in Annex 2. Its key features are summarizedbelow:
* all people living within 150 km radius of the Calub Plant and 25 km on either side of the Shilabo-Harar road will have access to the fund, but a special effort will be made to facilitate access to women and other disadvantaged groups;
* the mode of operation of the Fund will be explained to all those concerned and its managementstyle will be transparent;
* micro-projects to be financed will fall into three categories: (a) light infrastructure, such as the rehabilitationof wells and schools, (b) income generating activities (mostly through revolving funds), and (c) basic social services, such as communitybased health;
53 e the fund will also be available to address broad environmentaland health issues of direct relevance to the project (e.g., an educational campaign on AIDS to mitigate the possible spread of the disease as a result of road rehabilitation);
* a participatory approach will be adopted, with groups of beneficiaries themselvesidentifying micro-projects for fundingand activelyparticipating in implementation;
* beneficiarieswill be required to provide labor and other in-kindcontributions, while the Fund will provide technical assistance (e.g., environmental assessments,training, technicaldesign), imported and manufacturedmaterials;
* assistance will be available either directly to local communities,or indirectly through NGOs and governmentagencies or projects (e.g., SERP) which will act as implementingagencies.
166. The Fund will be managedby a CoordinatingUnit to be located, at least initially, in Kebri Dehar, the closest town to Shilabo with banking facilities and the historic capital of the Ogaden. The CoordinatingUnit will be guided by a Regional Steering Committee,but will have considerableautonomy in the day-to-dayoperation of the fund., Given the multi- sectoral nature of the activitiesto be financed,it is recommendedthat the CoordinatingUnit be institutionallylinked to the Regional Government's Office of Planning33.
167. It is hoped that the Calub project in general, and this Fund in particular, will act as a catalyzer for other developmentinitiatives. In this regard, it is encouragingto note that U-NDPhas already offered to establish a credit scheme to assist local entrepreneursin setting up networks for the distributionof petroleum products to local residents (e.g., gas stations). It is envisaged that additional developmentopportunities will be identified throughthe work of the Fund, and be brought to the attention of donors.
33 Because regionaladministrative elections have only recently been completedin Region 5, the. compositionand organization of the regionalgovernment have not yet been defined.It was therefore impossibleto discussthis suggestionwith the regionalauthorities concerned.
54 Chapter 6 Environmental Monitoring Plan
Monitoring System
168. There are several agencies which are concerned with the collectionand analysis of environmentallyrelevant data. At present, however, the quantityof data and knowledgeof trends in the environmentalsituation is rather limited. While detailed data collection on a large scale is a luxury which Ethiopiaprobably can not afford, there is a need for some basic monitoring and analysis of data on key parametersconcerning the environment, especially in situations where signs of environmental stress are evident or, as in this case, where significant interventions are planned. Therefore, an essential component of the Project mitigationplan is the establishmentof a comprehensiveenvironmental monitoring system for the project impact zone (i.e., 150 km of Calub and 25 km on either side of the road). In light of the potential environmentalimpacts identified and of the mitigationplan proposed, this monitoringsystem shouldcomprise a natural resourcescomponent and a socio-economic component.
169. The natural resources component should monitor the impact of the Project on the local bio-physicalenvironment, in particular on the following indicators:
* vegetation composition/association(range condition)
* devegetation
* water availabilityand quality
* livestock movementsand numbers
* roadside erosion/gullying
170. The socio-economiccomponent is intended to monitor the impact of the Project on the human environment, in particular on the following indicators:
* populationdensity and distribution (includingsettlement patterns)
* availabilityof grain and other goods in local markets
* livestock-grainterms of trade
* economic activities, especiallyemployment and self-employment
* health and education, includingavailability of basic services
55 * traffic along the road
* fuel use patterns and prices
* local attitudes toward the Project
Natural Resources Component
171. Monitoring the natural environment in the context of the Project relates to (a) the measurementand interpretationof changes in those vegetationand soil characteristicswhich are likely to influence the long-term productivity of the range, (b) the measurement of livestock movement and concentration, and (c) the measurement of water quality and quantity.
172. It is anticipatedthat the overalleffects of the Project will be beneficial. However, the creation of an industrial complex and of a townsite may lead to a greater concentrationof livestock and people, thus upsetting the delicate balance between water and grazing availabilityin the Shilabo area and possibly along the main road. For example, the project is likely to come under intense pressure to drill new wells, but any such initiativeshould be taken only after careful study of rangeland conditions and land use in the area, lest the provision of a permanent water source results in massive overgrazing and eventually in devegetationaround the well.
173. Rangeland monitoring requires information on the natural environment at different time intervals. Space, aerial and ground techniques(i.e., establishmentof monitoringsites) should be used to monitor the rangeland vegetationboth in the Calub area and at selected locations along the main road. Satellite imagery will be required initially to give broad distinction to the vegetation. Aerial reconnaissanceshould follow to obtain more precise informationon vegetation types and herd size; given the high cost of aerial surveys, it is suggestedthat they take place only within the Calub area. The informationcollected in this way will indicate the status and dynamics of local range condition and trends. The establishmentof monitoringsites in key points (e.g., near water points) will make it possible to analyze environmentalindicators in greater detail, and therefore to detect any changes at an early stage.
174. Some of the information needed for monitoring the range and water resource is already available in scattered locations in various government departments. The initial activity will therefore be to collect this information and organize it into an adequate data base. Once the data base is developed, gaps in the information available will be identified and a detailed monitoring system designed to fill the gaps. The informationneeded for monitoring and the parameters to be measured include:
Soils soil type soil depth
56 soil movement erosion features
Natural Vegetation species composition vegetationcover vegetationdensity prevalence of palatable species plant vigor
Livestock livestock numbers livestock types migration patterns livestock diseases livestock marketing (prices etc.) herd composition
Water Resources location and number of water points types of water point water table depth water quality
Farming Activities number and location of farms and enclosures size of farms crops grown crop yields
Climate rainfall temperature wind speed and direction
Socio-EconomicComponent
175. The major socio-economicparameters in the Ogadenare undergoingconstant change, so it would be difficult to identify what changes are likely to be directly related to the Calub Project. Nevertheless, it is important that an attempt be made to quantify the major trends which might be attributable, at least in part, to the Project. These effects may be either direct or indirect. A direct effect might be the impact of petroleum production, once it comes on stream, on local woodfuelconsumption. An indirect effect might be the knock-on effect of the rehabilitated Harar-Shilaboroad on food prices and availabilityin the area.
176. Given the ripple effect of socio-economicchanges, the area to be kept under study will have to be limited somewhatarbitrarily. It is suggestedthat data collectionconcentrate on the same area covered by the CommunityDevelopment Fund, so that the monitoring system will also provide an ongoing evaluationof the effectivenessof the Fund. The study therefore should gather informationwithin 150 km radius of the Calub plant --which will
57 include the main centers of Shilabo, Kebri Dehar, Gode, Kelafo and Warder-- and at specified locations along the main road.
177. While it would be desirable to use a combinationof both quantitativeand qualitative techniques, it is advisable to rely primarily on indicators which lend themselves to quantification. This would make it possible to standardizeand simplifydata collection,and would facilitatecomparisons between locations and over time. The close link between the economiclife of most indigenouspeople and the conditionsof the natural environmentmean that a degree of overlap with the data collectionrequirements for the bio-physicalcomponent may be desirable if not necessary. Also, findings from the two components should be compared and discussed at regular intervals. Key parameters to be measured for socio- economic monitoring would include the following:
Population populationincrease, especially near the plant and along the road populationdistribution in the project area migratory movements,both temporary and permanent
Markets local grain prices local prices of other basic consumables availabilityof basic goods availabilityof "new" goods and services volumes and goods traded, both locally and long distance
Terms of Trade livestock-grainterms of trade livestock prices and terms of exchange
Economic Activities number of small businesses,especially near the plant/townsiteand along the road new types of businesses (manufacturing,trade and services) turnover rates of small businesses growth rates of small businesses unemploymentrates (by gender, age, education, ethnicity) employment structure (by gender, age, education, ethnicity) employmentopportunities (by gender, age, education, ethnicity)
Road Traffic number and type of vehicles number and seriousnessof accidents
Social Sectors primary school enrollmentand attendance(by gender and ethnicity) teacher/pupil ratios infant, maternal and child mortality
58 morbiditypatterns availabilityof medicalpersonnel and medicines access to safe water
Fuel fuel use patterns, especiallyproductive uses fuel prices (biomass, kerosene, LPG, diesel, gasoline) availabilityof fuel (kerosene, LPG, diesel, gasoline) interfuel substitution
Local Attitudes attitudestoward the Project in general attitudestoward the Calub Company attitudestoward the CommunityDevelopment Fund
Monitoring Unit
178. The monitoring plan outlined in this chapter should be an ongoing activity for the duration of the project and it will require the attention of specializedpersonnel stationed in the field. The mandateof the newly establishedMinistry of Natural ResourcesDevelopment and EnvironmentalProtection makes it a logical candidate for the implementationof the plan, but at present it would be unrealistic to expect the Ministry to be ible to take over responsibility for monitoringactivities, as neither its means nor its structure would enable it to do it effectively. The Ministry of Mines and Energy would not be an acceptable implementingagency for the monitoringplan because of conflict of interests. The NGOs involved in environmental activities do not appear to have the needed expertise, or the interest, to carry out the monitoring. It is therefore suggested that responsibility for the monitoringplan be allocatedas follows: a specialMonitoring Unit should be establishedwith responsibility for overall coordination and for the direct implementation of the socio- economic component, while SERP3 would be sub-contracted for the natural resources component.
179. SERP has already started collecting some of the needed data over the south-east rangelands as a whole and has plans to carry out its own environmentalmonitoring for the whole region. SERP offices have been opened in a number of locations in Region 5, specializedpersonnel is already in the field, and arrangementsfor the use of sophisticated equipment(e.g., for satelliteimagery) have been made. Contractingout to SERP the natural resources component would save both time and money, since it would be possible to take advantage of their expertise, organization and equipment. It would also give SERP the means to carry out more intensive data collection in the Calub Project area (i.e., 150 km radius around Calub and 25 km on each side of the Harar-Shilaboroad), so as to achieve the
34 It will be recalled that SERP is the South-EastRangelands Project operated under the Ministry of Agriculture(see Chapter 3).
59 desired level of detail. As a close collaborationwith SERP would in any case be desirable, this arrangement would ensure such collaboration.
180. The Monitoring Unit would be attached to the office of the Calub Community DevelopmentFund (see previous chapter). This would be desirable for practical reasons, such as sharing office space and equipment, and for strategic reasons, to facilitate the monitoring of the CommunityDevelopment Fund activities and to have easy access to the Adviser who will assist both the Fund and the MonitoringUnit. The Unit would comprise a full-time Monitoring Officer, secretary and driver. The Monitoring Officer will receive support from the Technical AssistanceAdviser to the CommunityDevelopment Fund for a total of ten months. This meansthat the monitoringbudget will cover the costs of ten of the 33 months of technical assistance to be provided by the Adviser to the Community DevelopmentFund (see Annex 2). The MonitoringOfficer, who would ideally be qualified to post-graduatedegree standardin a social science, would have access to a small budget to hire local school leavers to act as data collectors/enumerators.
181. The Monitoring Officer would be administrativelyresponsible, in the first instance, to the Manager of the Calub CommunityDevelopment Fund. The accountantof the Fund would be responsible for keeping the local accounts of the Monitoring Unit, which would have a separate bank account in Kebri Dehar. Disbursement and procurement would be carried out by the CoordinatingUnit of the CommunityDevelopment Fund on behalf of the Monitoring Unit. Contracts for services above US$5,000 per contract would need the approval of the regional government's PlanningOffice who would be ultimatelyresponsible for disbursement of funds and for the work of the Monitoring Unit in general. The Monitoring Officer would have authority to sign checks for up to US$5,000 per service contract.
182. The Monitoring Officer would be expected to prepare quarterly reports discussing monitoring results, progress, problems encountered and so on. He/she would also be responsible for following up work to be carried out by SERP for the natural resources component, so as to ensure that the two systems are directed towards the same overall objective: to understand, documentand quantify as much as possible the overall impact of the Project on the local human and natural environment.
183. The diagram below shows the institutionalsetting of the Monitoring Unit.
Regional Planning Office
MonitoringUnit ; CoordinatingUnit of Calub CommunityDevelopment Fund
SERP
60 Responsibilitiesof the Technical Adviser would be to:
o collaborate with the Monitoring Officer in the design of the socio-economic monitoring system;
o train the MonitoringOfficer, and eventuallyother data collectors, in the use of the system as needed;
o modify the system in the light of field experience;
o support the smoothrunning of the system through regular field visits during project lifetime.
Responsibilitiesof the Monitoring Officer would be to:
o prepare detailed work programs;
o superviseMonitoring Unit staff;
o recruit short-termand/or part-timelocal data collectorsa's needed, and coordinateand supervisetheir work;
o collect necessary field data and analyze them;
o prepare quarterly reports to be sent to the Planning Office of the Regional Government and to the Ministry of Natural Resources Development and EnvironmentalProtection;
o collaborate with the Calub CommunityDevelopment Fund;
o coordinate and follow up work to be carried by SERP;
o liaise with the Calub Companyand other concerned agencies as appropriate.
Duration
184. Monitoring activities should start as soon as the IDA credit becomes effective with the collection of detailed baseline data. To do this, it will be necessary to formalize arrangementsfor sub-contractingthe natural resources componentto SERP (this possibility was already discussed during the EnvironmentalAssessment Mission) and to design a data collectionsystem for the socio-economiccomponent. It shouldbe noted that, althoughfunds for the monitoring plan will be made available through the Calub Project only five years, monitoring should take place for at least ten years and ideally for as long as natural gas reservoirs in the area will continue to be exploited. Should monitoring stop with the end of the project, it will be difficult to detect any longer term trends. Becausechanges in the bio-
61 physical environment may take several years to manifest themselves, it is essential that agreements are reached to fund monitoring activities for a minimum of five years after project completion, possibly in the form of a grant from environmentally-mindeddonors.
Budget
185. The budget (in US$) is divided into two parts reflecting the different set up proposed for the natural resources componentand the socio-economiccomponent. The budget for the natural resources component covers the estimated additional cost to SERP to carry out the required monitoring over the Calub Project lifetime.
Natural Resources Component
Aerial Survey (150kmradius of Calub) US$200,000 Satellite Imagery 30,000 Report Preparation 3,000 Fuel and Maintenance 20,000 Local Staff 25,000 Technical Assistance (6 months) 90,000
Sub-Total US$368,000
Socio-Economic Component Unit Capital Costs Cost Total
Housing Office Building (2 rooms)-1 unit 15,000 15,000 Residence (tukul) - 1 unit 16,000 16,000 Household Furniture - 1 set 7,000 7,000 Office Equipment Computer desk-top 7,000 7,000 Printer 1,000 1,000 UnbreakablePower Supply 3,000 3,000 Computer Software 1,000 1,000 Furniture 2,500 2,500 Air Conditioner 1,500 1,500 Camping Equipment(1 set) 1,000 1,000 Vehicles 4WD Station Wagon 40,000 40,000 Fund to Hire Local Staff 7,000 35,000
62 Recurrent Costs
Staff Salaries Monthly 12 Months 60 Months Monitoring Officer (1) 400 4,800 24,000 Secretary (1) 200 2,400 12,000 Driver (1) 150 1,800 9,000 Per Diems Monitoring Officer (o $7/day) 140 1,680 8,400 Driver (@ $4/day) 80 960 4,800 Vehicle Operation and Maintenance 10,000 50,000 Office Consumables 2,000 10,000 Technical Assistance Socio-Economic Adviser (10 mo. total) 15,000 150,000
Sub-Total US$398,200
Total 766,200 10% contingency 76,620 Grand Total US$842,820
63 Annex 1 Geological Maps and Cross-Section
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LEGEND
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I t e@ 6-l0'k } OTHERS- GROUND ROADS RIVER WITH TEMPORARY FLOW t.K42A4pI RIVERWITH PERMANENT FLOW Il-°fif 4.STl|2.6 -- OUTCROPS OF TERTIARY DEPOSITS B 4532.6 EXPLORATORYWELLS FOR OI: AND GAS 35 - *D - SAUDI ARABIA ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.,Z \15' REP OF YEMEN SUDANI 302 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~/DJIBOUITI \Addi Abob* SOMALIA TN, ,.op ho. b...r popod by Th. Wodd 9o.4' P.1 eIsiusy to, UGANDA th. oi.oo0-. of r.d- .d is for t. ihe - of Td. WoaId K ENYA Bo. Groop Th. d--oion, .d .od hb. bo-odo.6. .on 0- ItEo ,,pp do ,ot i,piy, on ?. pOr f Th. Vd So Goop, ony jleo \ 0' in,Ynot;0n on lIT. I0noI 0t011 of any t rTro,y0, aony Sor*OT.lT or occeTCO of I _._ eurh b-dor\.1 Bou,doIes "4I4O 44°45' ToMusthi! A,"'4 M,'ARI Annex 2 Calub Community Development Fund Introduction 1. The Calub Gas DevelopmentProject is intendedto develop the Calub Gas Field in the Shilabo District of the Ogaden. The main componentsof the Project are: o establishment of a plant in Calub, some 30 km east of Shilabo town, for the commercial extraction of petroleum products; o establishmentof the necessaryassociated infrastructure, in particularrehabilitation of the Shilabo-Harar road for the improved transport of petroleum products towards and beyond Dire Dawa, and the building of a townsite for plant employeesand their families; o establishmentof a CommunityDevelopment Fund so the benefits of the Projects are more widely spread throughoutthe local population; o establishmentof a monitoring systemto monitor the impact of the Project on the human and natural environmentduring the lifetimeof the Project. Background 2. The Ogadenis a remote and isolatedarea of Ethiopia, inhabitedlargely by Somali nomads herding cattle, camels, sheep and goats. There are several small towns and administrativecenters in the area, such as Gode (pop. 15,000) the former administrative capital of the area, Kebri Dehar (pop. 10,000), Shilabo (pop. 5,000)', Warder (pop. 4,000) and Kelafo (pop. 5,000). Over 90 percent of the populationlive outside these towns in rural areas. 3. Becauseof the constanttraffic in people across the border with Somaliaestimating the populationof the Ogaden has always been fraught with difficulties. In a recent series of over-flightsof the area carried out by Save the Children Fund in 1991, it was estimated that the total rural population of the Ogaden, including the lowlands of the former Eastern Hararghe administrativeregion, but excluding the refugee/returneecamps, was about one million. The populationof thesesmall towns is estimatedfrom information collected from town elders and field observation. All of the towns mentioned, but especially Gode and Kelafo, have' recently seen their populationincrease as a result of an influx of retumees/refugeesfrom Somalia. 66 4. Since 1989 the area has also becomehome to over 400,000 refugeesand returnees escaping the civil conflict in neighboringSomalia. The bulk of these have been absorbed withinthe local rural populationbut some 70,000-80,000live in relief campsalong the Wabi Shebele river, at Gode and Kelafo, and south of Jijiga. Others have drifted to the local towns, where they eke out a living engaged in informal trade and small businesses (e.g., running tea shops) and generally swellingthe numbers of urban unemployed. 5. The mainstay of the economy is nomadic pastoralism. In addition, there is a lively two-way trade in livestock and relief food (grain and rice) with Somalia. 6. Historically, the Ogaden is a neglected area. Infrastructure is poorly developed and the populationill-served by basic social services, such as schools, clinics and hospitals. While recently the area has been the focus of a large scale humanitarian relief effort, there has been little in the way of longer term developmentprojects in the area. The South-East Rangelands Project (SERP), financed by the African Development Bank, is the only development project presently being implemented throughout the area. This project is intended to raise rural living standards through sustainable livestock, range and dry land agricultural interventions,but it appears to be handicappedby lack of resourcesand the poor infrastructure of the project area. 7. Under the new political dispensation in Ethiopia since the Transitional Governmentcame to power in May, 1991 the former Ogaden AutonomousRegion and the lowlandsof Eastern Hararghe Region are now consolidatedtogether to form the new Somali Region V. It is expected that the new regional governmentwill be formally established in the early part of 1993. Justification 8. The Ogaden has a fragile dry land ecology and economy. In the last three years the population of the area has suffered from localizeddrought, which has been exacerbated by the influx of large numbers of refugees/returneesfrom Somalia. Many depend, either directly or indirectly, on food relief. Local people perceive themselves to have been neglected by successive Addis Ababa governments. The new emphasis on local regional autonomy, however, has encouraged Somali to believe that they too will soon be able to enjoy the benefits of longer term development, in particular greater employment opportunitiesand improvedinfrastructure and social services. Any developmentof the Calub natural gas field cannot be divorced from this new economic, social and political context. 9. Area residents as well as politiciansexpect to see tangible local benefits from the exploitationof what they consider their natural resources. Without local supportfor the Project it is difficult to see how the Project could be implementedin what has historically and geographicallybeen such a remote and politicallyunstable area of Ethiopia. 67 10. While it is likely that at least some local residents will be employed by the Company,and the rehabilitationof the Shilabo-Hararroad will provide additionaltemporary jobs to others, as well as eventually a boost to the Ogaden economy in general, it is consideredimportant that local communitiesin the Calub area and along the main road, be offered a wider range of developmentinterventions. The establishmentof a Community DevelopmentFund will ensure that people living in the project impact zone receive some direct benefits as a tangible result of the project. The fund will be available to finance and supporta range of locally identified,and communitybased and managed, micro-projects,and it will be identified with the Calub Gas DevelopmentProject. Objectives 11. In addition to the general goal of bringing benefits and spurring developmentin the project area, the Calub CommunityDevelopment Fund will have two objectives. One will be to enhance local support and identificationwith the Calub Gas DevelopmentProject, thus indirectly contributing to its successfulimplementation. The other will be to mitigate some of the possible negative effects of the Project, such as the use of up to 50 sq km of seasonalgrazing land for the site of the gas plant and associatedpipelines to the wells. The purposes of the fund will be achievedby: o supporting community-based micro-projects designed to- respond to the rehabilitationand developmentneeds of the target population; o promoting and using a participatoryapproach to the design and planningof local developmentprojects; o assisting and encouraging the organization of local self-help groups, with particular emphasis on women's groups. Project Area 12. The Calub Community DevelopmentFund will be available to finance micro- projects within 150 km of the Calub Plant and 25 km either side of the Shilabo-Hararroad. Defined in this way, the project area will include all the main population centers and towns of the region (see Map). The main districts (awraja)included in the project area will be: Shilabo, Kebri Dehar, Gode, Warder, Sheikosh, Degah Bur, Kebri Beyah, Jijiga and Babile/Gursum. 13. Special emphasis will be given to communitiesliving in the immediatevicinity of the gas field and along the main road, particularly south of Degah Bur, where, because of resource constraints, SERP is least operationalisedand other agencies virtually absent. It is these groups, in fact, who stand to be most affected by the Project through loss of 68 grazing land, increaseduse of their local water supplies, and a heavier traffic along the road. Scope 14. The Fund will be available to support three kinds of project: (a) small infrastructural projects, such as rehabilitation or construction of wells, schools and health clinics, including supply of simple technology, such as generators or water pumps, which serve the communityas a whole; (b) social projects, for the provision of essential social services, such as community health and nutrition programs, training in adult literacy (especially for women) and AIDS prevention, vocationaltraining, and veterinary services; (c) income generating projects, including provision of credit and/or small grants for small-scaleand micro-enterprises,preferably run by community-basedgroups. 15. Such a spread of project portfolios would neatly plug the gaps in existing programs in the area. In any case, care should be taken to avoid overlappingwith ongoing projects and to build on their achievements(more on this later). Where agencies may be interested in starting up new programs, such as Medecins Sans Frontiers (Belgium) or UNICEF in the community health field, the Fund would represent a potential source of finance. 16. Dependingon the category of micro-project,the Fund would work with a range of implementingpartners. Infrastructuralprojects would generally be implementedeither by NGOs or existing government agencies, such as SERP; social projects would be implementedby NGOS, governmentagencies or even the local district administration;and income generating projects would involve providing seed capital either to NGOs acting as intermediaries/technicalassistants or directly to local self-help groups and individuals. The kind of implementingpartner used would depend a good deal on the nature of the project. However, no hard and fast rules would apply; for example, there would be no reason why in principle an infrastructural project could not also be implemented directly by the community. Approach 17. Projects should be participatoryand sustainable. The Fund is intendedto support as large a number of beneficiariesas possible, so priority will be given to supportinggroups rather than individuals. Because the traditional women's role makes it more difficult for them to take advantageof socialand economicopportunities, a specialeffort shouldbe made to ensure that they benefit from the Fund. Beneficiarieswill be expectedto contribute to 69 projects and to take ownership of them, so as to provide proper management and maintenance after initial implementation. Depending on the type of project, the initial contributioncould be in different ways. For infrastructuralprojects it could be in terms of finance, labor or raw materials;for socialprojects it could be in terms of future management arrangementsand possiblypartial cost recovery; for income generatingprojects it would be in the form of loan repayment,including a reasonableinterest rate. SERPexperience already indicates that local communitiesare familiar with this type of approach. 18. It is envisaged that the Fund will be available to support micro-projects to be implementedeither directly by the local communityor indirectly by other agencies, such as NGOS, district administrationor indeed other governmentagencies and projects which will act as the implementingagency for the community. Whoever/whateverthe implementing agency, the standard criteria to be adoptedin assessingproject requests will be the same, in particular that the implementingagency uses a participatory approach, and the project is sustainable. Implementing agencies will be given no more than 10 percent of the total micro-projectcost to cover their own expenses. Institutional Framework 19. The Calub Community Development Fund will be managed by a small CoordinatingUnit (CU) establishedand staffed for that specific purpose. The CU will be institutionally linked to the Regional Government and will be responsible to a Steering Committeemade-up of the Head of the Regional Governmentor his/her representative,and local representatives of government institutions dealing at the regional level with health, education, environment, agriculture, planning, and energy; the Steering Committeeshould also include local representativesof the Relief and RehabilitationCommittee, and of relevant NGOS, donors and governmentprojects, such as SERP2. The Steering Committeewill meet quarterly to oversee the workings of the Fund, approve project requests over the CU approvedfinancial authority for projects, and review work programs. The Committeewill a point, with the agreementof the major donors, an independentauditor for the audit of the Fund. 20. Project accountabilityis extremely important. Larger scale projects involving a number of beneficiariesand sums in excess of $500 will be expectedto have their own Local Project Committeesestablished to oversee the implementationof the project and the proper use of funds. These Committees might typically comprise the local administration, communityelders, representativesof the beneficiarygroup, and the responsibleimplementing agency. The Local Project Committee will mainly be responsible to make sure that contractualcommitments were adhered to and that project funds were properly utilized. On 2 Becauseregional governments are still in the process of being established, it is not clear yet what will be the structure of the governmentof Region 5. It is hoped that by the time negotiationstake place, it will be sufficientlywell defined to allowus to determinemore preciselymembership in the SteeringCommittee. 70 satisfactory completion of the project, it will sign a project completion certificate. The precise membershipof Local Project Committeeswill be decided by the local communities themselves. Generally, it is expected that there will be a standing core committee, made up of recognizedlocal authorities(both formal and informal), to which additionalmembers would be co-opted dependingon the identityof the projectbeing discussedor under-review on any given day. 21. Smaller projects, involving sums of less than $500, and probably fewer beneficiaries, will not be required to have a Local Project Committeeorganized. Usually, these projects would be small income generating projects to local self-help groups or individuals. However, some degree of accountability to the wider community will be required as a condition of project funding. Otherwise, it is difficult to see what local pressure can be brought to bear against loan defaulters or to stop local 'conmen' applying to the Fund. It is therefore proposed that applicationsfor projects worth less than $500 will need to be accompaniedby a formal letter from the local administrationand/or recognized communityelders from that area certifying that applicants are bone fide local residents, of good character. 22. The proposed institutionalframework for the operation of the Fund is set out in the followingdiagram. Regional Government STEERINGCOMMITTvEE COORDINATINGUNIT (FIELD OFFICES) LOCAL PROJECT COMMITTEES 'I BENEFICIARIES CoordinatingUnit 23. The professional staff of the CU will consist of: o a Unit Manager, with preferably a postgraduate degree in the social sciencesor range and at least 5 years experience in a managerialposition; o a Range Ecologistor Social Scientist,with the same qualificationsand experience 71 as above; o a Women's Affairs Officer, with at least a first degree in an applied social science (e.g., communitydevelopment, social work) or other relevant discipline (e.g., agricultural extension, communityhealth) and 2 years experience; o an Accountant,with appropriateaccountancy qualifications and experience; o a Procurement-cum-LiaisonOfficer, with at least Diploma level education and extensive experience in governmentand private sector procurement; o a Secretary, with appropriatetyping and word processing skills. 24. In addition, the Unit will be provided technicalassistance from a Socio-Economic Advisor and a Procurement Expert. The Socio-EconomicAdvisor will have a background in the social sciencesand a proven record of success in designingand managingthis type of project3. He/she will assist in setting up the Fund for the initial 13 months of project implementation;a further eight monthsof consultancyinputs over the followingthree years will be available for short-termfollow up visits. His/her presence in the field, however, will be more prolonged, becausehe/she will also be responsiblefor the socioeconomiccomponent of the proposed environmentalmonitoring plan (see para 32)4. As experience has showed that procurement and disbursement procedures often determine the success or failure of social funds, the Project will make available the services of an experienced Procurement Expert for a total of two months to ensure that such procedures are set up in the most flexible and simple way possible. 25. Becauseof the large size of the area covered by the Fund and the limited presence of experiencedintermediary organizations,the Unit will need to employ five field officers to be based in Jijiga, Degah Bur, Gode, Warder and Shilabo. These field officers will be Diploma graduates with suitable backgrounds in communityextension work, and will be responsiblefor following up Fund activities in their area of operation. Each officer will be provided with a motorcycle. 26. The Unit should initially be based in Kebri Dehar town which is the historical center of the Ogaden and some 110 km from Shilabo. The town is the only center in the Ogaden with a CommercialBank of Ethiopia branch capable of holding cash reserves up to 2 million Birr. In addition, there is piped water in the town and electricity for five hours at night. Because much of the work of the Unit will take place outside Kebri Dehar, provisionwill be made in the budget to rent a local house to provide office space in Shilabo, 3 The Socio-EconomicAdvisor could be recruited nationallyor internationally. 4 Of the total 31 working months for the Advisor, 10 months will be devoted to the socio-economic componentof the proposed environmentalmonitoring plan, and therefore will be paid out of that budget. 72 Jijiga, Degah Bur, Warder and Gode. 27. The CU will have the followingresponsibilities: o Preparation of a detailed operational manual which will describe the types of projects that can be supported, the criteria to be used in assessing applications, the kinds of organizationswhich can apply to the Fund, the different stages of micro-project assessment and monitoring, and disbursement and procurement procedures. O Promotion and advertising of the Fund through: meetings with district officials and local communityelders, women's groups, cooperatives,government agencies and non-governmental organizations; preparation of appropriate promotional material; and design and distribution of project request forms. O Assessment and appraisal of project requests, includingthe technical, social and economic feasibility of the project, preparation of an implementationprogram, and review of the budget. O Disbursementoffunds accordingto agreedprocedures. Disbursementwill be in trenches up to a set and agreed limit. Occasionally,the Unit will be expectedto procure items for local communitygroups. O Monitoringof micro-projects, in particular utilization of funds according to the agreed program and objectives identified together with the beneficiaries. O Preparationof quarterly reportsfor the Steering Committeedetailing the micro- projects supported, and any progress achieved and problems encountered. Relationship with other Organizations 28. The CU will be formally linked to the Regional Government, but it will be responsibleto its own SteeringCommittee. Althoughits relationshipwith other social funds in the country, such as the Ethiopian Social RehabilitationFund 5, will be informal, it is considered important that regular communication be maintained and possibilities of collaboration explored when appropriate. At the district level the CU will work with its collaborating partners, which may be the district administration, non-governmental organizations,local communitygroups, and governmentagencies, such as SERP or mainline ministries. It is these partners that will be directly responsible for micro-project 5 This fund is part of the EmergencyRehabilitation and ReconstructionProject (ERRP) and it is intended to start on a pilot basis in Shoa and Tigray, but later expandedto other regions. 73 implementationon the basis of project requests submittedto and approved by the CU. In addition, the CU would liaise with the various Local Project Committees organized to supervise micro-projects in the different project locations. As discussed above, these committeeswould generallyneed to be organizedas a conditionof projectapproval and their compositionwould need to be approved by the CU. Micro-Project Cycle 29. Projects will pass through a typical project cycle. This cycle will consist of a number of progressive stages: (a) Project request. The project cycle starts once a project request form has been received by the CU. This request is assigned a file and classifiedaccording to category and geographical location. The basic details will be entered into a computer database. (b) Project assessment. The project will then be assessed according to agreed criteria, such as sustainability, poverty alleviation, number of beneficiaries, impact on women, and kind of group involved. (These criteria will be established in detail in the Operational Manual and explained in promotional literature). Field visits will probably need to be made during this stage. If the CU feels it necessary, it may call in a specialistconsultant to technicallyassess the project. (c) Project approval. If the assessment is positive, a project document will be prepared. This document will detail the project objectives, beneficiaries, implementing agency and procedures, budget and implementation time table. Because of the different scales of cost involved in the different types of project to be supported by the Fund (e.g., an infrastructural project involving the building of a health clinic is likely to cost a lot more than a project providing seed capital for a women's group), the CU will operate different financial thresholds according to 'type' of project funded: for infrastructuralprojects, which are likely to be the most expensive,the CU will have authority to commit up to $20,000 per contract; for social projects, the CU's authority will be up to $10,000 per contract; for income generating projects, which for the most part will be very small, the CU's authority will be up to $3,000 per contract. The Steering Committee will meet quarterly to approve projects with estimated financial costs above these thresholds. Because the intentionof the Fund is to spread benefits as widely as possible, it will be necessary to establish absolute 74 financial ceilings for different types of project and maximum district allocations. These limits will be initially defined in the Operational Manual, but could be revised periodically. (c) Project monitoring. During the implementation phase, micro-projects will be monitored against agreed indicators. On completion of the micro-project (e.g., when construction is finished or the loan is repaid), a completion report will be prepared and the project file closed. Monitoring and Evaluation 30. The participatoryapproach to be adopted by the Calub CommunityDevelopment Fund-the process of consultation, the use of implementingagencies with strong credibility at the grassroots, and of micro-projectcommittees representing the beneficiaries-willprovide the foundation for a participatory monitoring and evaluation system based on regular follow-up visits (at least once a month) and progress reports (monthly and quarterly). 31. The monitoring of Fund micro-projects will be built in to the overall environmental monitoring of the impact of the Calub Gas Project, primarily (but not exclusively)in its socioeconomiccomponent. Informationobtained by .the4CUas part of its regular follow up of micro-projectswill form part of this wider monitoringsystem. 32. Given the location of the CU in Kebri Dehar and its particular responsibilityto monitor the micro-projectsit supports in the project area, it makes sense to locate in Kebri Dehar as well the EnvironmentalMonitoring Unit which will be responsible for the more general socioeconomiccomponent of the Monitoring Plan proposed in the Environmental Assessment. The EnvironmentalMonitoring Unit would be attached to the CU, and share its facilitiesand the services of the Advisor. In particular, of the total of 33 working months proposed for the Technical Assistance Advisor, 10 months would be paid for out of the environmentalmonitoring budget. Such a set up should ensure that the activities of the Fund are carefully monitored, even after micro-projectsare officiallycompleted, and that lessons from the successes and failures of micro-projectsare kept in mind when implementingnew micro-projects.[For more details on the proposed environmentalmonitoring plan, including total budget, refer to the EnvironmentalAssessment Report]. Financial Arrangements Disbursement and Procurement 33. The CU will have its own local currency accountin Kebri Dehar which will be regularly replenished by the Regional Government. This account will be used to fund the bulk of micro-projects. The Project Manager will be signatory to the account. In addition, 75 the Regional Government will have a Special Deposit Account in US$ with the National Bank of Ethiopia; this account will be used to replenish the MU's account in Kebri Dehar and to purchase goods requiring payment in foreign exchange. 34. Disbursementand procurementprocedures will depend on the type of community assisted, that is, on the capacityof the intended beneficiariesto procure needed goods and services and to draw from a bank account. Three cases can be distinguishedas follows: (a) the beneficiary does not have the capacity to establish/operatean account, either for legal or practical reasons: in this case beneficiaries will not be expected to open an account to receive disbursements from the CU, and the CU will be responsible for procuring materials and entering into contracts with contractors on behalf of the community; (b) the beneficiarydoes not have the capacityto establish/operatean account, but an NGO or government agency sponsors the micro-project: in this case, the CU would disburse funds on the account of the sponsor, who will be responsiblefor procurement and for entering into contract for needed services; (c) the beneficiaryhas the capacity to establish/operatean account: in this case, a. Micro-Project Committeeis created, who will open an account to receive disbursements from the CU and will be responsible for procuring needed material and entering into contracts for needed services, according to the Fund procurement regulations (see below). 35. Where the implementationagency is a local communitygroup itself, that is, no sponsoringagency is involved, the CU will have to determine whether it is reasonable to expect beneficiaries to open and operate an account for their micro-project. While the Operational Manual will provide detailed guidelines in this sense, it is anticipated that decisions will be based on considerations such as the amount of money involved, the intended use for the money, the educationalbackground of the beneficiaries, and difficulties in reaching a bank. 36. As a rule (cases b and c above), disbursementswill take place in trenches, and the first tranche will not exceed 30 percent of the total. Possible exceptions will be cases in which the micro-projectcenters around the provision of an important piece of equipment, such as a pump or a generator; in these instances, disbursementmay require a very large initial installment. Trenches will normally only be paid against receipts or statements of expenditure. It will be the responsibilityof the micro-projectholder to keep proper accounts acceptable to the CU. The CU accountantwill be responsible for checking these accounts to ensure proper use of funds. 37. The Calub CommunityDevelopment Fund will have independent procurement procedures outside the normal Regional Government procedures, similarly to what has 76 already been agreed by the Government for the operation of the Ethiopian Social RehabilitationFund financed by the World Bank. The CU may import items for its own use, such as vehicles and computers, or in support of micro-projects, such as building supplies and water pumps. 38. Procurementregulations will be as follows: local shopping for civil works, goods and services up to US$30,000; local competitivebidding for civil works, goods and servicesbetween US$30,000 and 200,000; internationalcompetitive bidding for goods over US$200,000. Credit 39. Income generating micro-projectswill involve a credit component. As a number of successfulgrass-root credit projects have been documentedworldwide (e.g., the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh and ACCION in Latin America), income generating microprojects should be set up taking into consideration such experiences. For example, interest rates should be at commercial levels, banking procedures should be simple and quick, requirementsfor collateralsshould be "soft" and possibly replacedby group guarantees, and credit liability should be shared by group members. Most importantly, field staff should be responsive to the needs and interests of its clientele, and carry out pre- and post-credit supervision with extreme diligence. These tasks are normally eased by the borrowers themselves being organizedinto groups. 40. The beneficiariesof the Fund's credit componentare likely to comprisereturnees from Somalia living in the small towns and settlementsin the project area (as defined in para. 12). In fact, while permanentresidents of the area tend to be nomadic or seminomadic pastoralists with little interest and no experiencein micro-enterprises,many returnees have experience and skills in various trades, such as leather working, which they have brought with them from Somalia. They do not have, however, the means to start up small businesses. 41. The account of the revolving credit fund will be kept distinct and separate from the Fund general account. An initial sum of $ 500,000 will be paid into the account to start the fund, and the sums of moneyloaned will be small-less than $3,000 per loan. The credit fund will be regularly audited. 42. The CU will be responsible, through its field staff, for advertising the credit scheme, explaining its functioning to all those interested, and following up on loans. A simple manual on credit operations will be prepared to be used by field staff and group leaders. Where either individualsor groups in a locality consistentlydefault on the loans the 77 local communityelders will be informed, and no new loans to the conimunityin the area initiated. 43. The revolving credit fund should be operated on a trial basis in the first year. As experience in the operationof the fund is gained, appropriatemodifications to the design of the scheme will be carried out. Details on how the credit will operate, including who and what kinds of activities will be eligible, will be explained in a specific section of the operational manualof the Fund to be prepared by the Adviser within the first three months of project implementation. The manualwill need to be approvedby the SteeringCommittee at the Regional Governmentheadquarters before becoming effective. Budget 44. The bulk of funds allocated to the Calub Community Development Fund will be used to fund micro-projects. However, there will inevitably be some administrative costs involved in managing the Fund and operating the CU in Kebri Dehar. Because of the remoteness of the area and difficult work conditions, it will be necessary to pay national staff above normal official salary levels. Otherwise, it is unlikely that the right calibre of staff will be attracted to the Unit. It is also important to establish from the start the principle that priority in making appointmentsto the Unit will be given to Somali speaking Ethiopian nationals living in Region 5. It is suggested, however, that professionalstaff be selected in such a way as to minimize their vulnerabilityto clan pressure. 45. Although the approach to be adopted by the CU will be to ensure an element of cost sharing through local communities'contribution to micro-projectsin either cash or kind, it is difficult to know at this stage the proportion of recovered funds to total funds which this approach will generate. Hence, it is difficult to determinethe extent to which the Fund will be replenished during the time of operation of the Calub Gas DevelopmentProject. 46. The initial budget for the Fund will be on a grant basis for the first five years. Thereafter, it is anticipatedthat the Regional Governmentwill contributeto the maintenance of the Fund out of tax revenues generated by the Calub Gas Company. In addition, other donors may be attracted to invest in the Fund. It is important that in principle the Regional Government agree to contribute a proportion of the tax revenues generated by Calub to support the Fund in future before the initial grant establishingthe Fund is made. The total sum allocated to the Fund for the support of micro-projects,excluding the costs of the CU, will be US $ 3,500,000 over five years. Conclusions 47. The above is intended to delineate the basic principlesand mode of operationof the Calub CommunityDevelopment Fund. It must be realized that a detailed operational 78 manualneeds to be prepared spellingout the details of Fund procedures. In particular, the institutionalframework of the Fund will have to be determined more precisely once the RegionalGovernment for Region 5 is in place. When this happens, presumablyin the early part of 1993, the formal institutionaldetails of the Fund will need to be worked out with Regional Government representatives as well as regional representatives of the mainline ministries. 48. Before the Fund is finalized, certain basic principles need to be discussed and agreed on: o that the Fund's procurement and disbursementprocedures will be as free from bureaucratic restrictions as it is compatible with sound accountingpractices; o that the major part of the Fund will be used for micro-projects, e.g., infrastructuralprojects worth less than $10,000, so as to avoid the temptationto regional authorities of using the Fund for large infrastructural programs; O that the Fund will be clearly identified in the minds of project beneficiaries with the Calub Gas Project, otherwise a major rationale for the fund will be removed and confusion may arise with national programs such as the Ethiopian Social -RehabilitationFund; o that the tax revenues from the Calub Gas Company or petroleum product sales in Region 5 will be partly re-investedin the Fund; o that the staff employed in the CU will be Somali speakers with a thorough knowledgeof the local culture; o that CU staff will be paid salaries adequateto attract and retain expert staff; o that the people of Calubitself and the immediatesurrounding area, withinShilabo District, will be given priority in the disbursementof funds. 79 BUDGET FOR COMMUNITY FUTND Us $ A. Capta Costs Unit Total Cost Office Building (4 rooms) - 1 unit 30,000 30,000 Residences (tukuls)- 4 units 16,000 64,000 Household Furniture- 4 sets 7,000 28,000 ffice Equipment Computer desktop 7,000 7,000 Printer 1,000 2,000 Ups (unbreakable power supply) 3,000 3,000 Computer software 2,000 2,000 Furniture 5,000 5,000 Typewriter 1,000 1,000 Radio & modem 8,000 8,000 Laptop 2,000 2,000 Generator 12 KVA 15,000 15,000 Air conditioner 1,500 1,500 Ceiling Fans 200 600 Photocopier 8,000 8,000 Camping Equipment (2 sets) 1,000 2,000 Vehicles 4 WD Station Wagon 40,000 80,000 4 WD Pick-up 30,000 30,000 5 Motorcycles (125cc) 5,000 25,000 Technical Assistance Fund Annual 5 years Fund to hire local technical assistance 10,000 50,000 Sub-Total (Capital Costs)... 364,000 B. Recurrent Costs us $ Staff Monthly Salary 12 Months 60 Months Project Manager (1) 500 6,000 30,000 Range Ecologist (1) 400 4,800 24,000 Woman's Affair Officer (1) 400 4,800 24,000 Accountant (1) 300 3,600 18,000 Procurement Liaison Officer (1) 250 3,000 15,000 Field Officer (5) 250 15,000 75,000 Secretary (1) 200 2,400 12,000 Guard (5) 100 6,000 30,000 Driver (3) 150 5,400 27,000 Cleaner (2) 80 1,920 9,600 80 Perdiems Daily Rafe DaysIMonth 60 Months Project Manager (1) 7 15. 6,300 Range Ecologist (1) 7 15 6,300 Women's Affairs Officer (1) 7 15 6,300 Accountant (1) 6 7 2,520 Procurement Officer (1) 6 7 2,520 Field Officer (5) 6 10 18,000 Driver (3) 4 15 10,800 Rent for Monthly Cost/Unit 60 Months Field Offices (5) 800 48,000 Annual Cost/Unit 60 months Vehicle Operation & Maintenance 10,000 150,000 Motorcycle Operation & Maintenance 2,500 62,500 Office consumables 4,000 20,000 Technical Assistance Socio Economic Adviser (@a15,000/mo) 315,000 Procurement Adviser (@15,000/mo) 30,000 Sub Total (Recurrent Costs) 942,840 Total (Capital and Recurrent Costs) 1,306,840 15% Contingency 196,026 Grand Total 1,502,866 Community Micro-Projects Fund 3,500,000 Project Total 5,002,866 81 FNF)