Food Supply Prospects FOR THE YEAR 2013 ______________________________________________________________________________ Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) March 2013 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Table of Contents Glossary ................................................................................................................. 2 Acronyms ............................................................................................................... 3 EXCUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................. 4 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 11 REGIONAL SUMMARY OF FOOD SUPPLY PROSPECT ............................................. 14 SOMALI ............................................................................................................. 14 OROMIA ........................................................................................................... 21 TIGRAY .............................................................................................................. 27 AMHARA ........................................................................................................... 31 AFAR ................................................................................................................. 34 BENISHANGUL GUMUZ ..................................................................................... 37 SNNP ................................................................................................................ 39 GAMBELLA ........................................................................................................ 43 DIRE DAWA ....................................................................................................... 47 HARARI ............................................................................................................. 50 Annex – 1: NEEDY POPULATION AND FOOD REQUIREMENT BY WOREDA ........... 52 1 | P a g e Glossary Azemera Rains from Early March to Early June (Tigray) Belg Short rainy season from February/March to June/July (National) Birkads Rain water harvesting cemented reservoirs (Somali Region) Birr Local currency of Ethiopia Chat Mildly narcotic shrub grown as cash crop Deyr Short rains from October to November (Somali Region) dadda Short rain between March and May in Afar Region Enset False Banana Jilaal Long dry period (February to mid-April) in Somali Region Gana Belg season during February to May ( (Borena and Guji zones) Gu Main rains from March to June ( Somali Region) Hagaya Short rains from October to November (Borena and Guji zones) Karan Rains from mid-July to September in the Northern zones of Somali region ( Jijiga and Shinile zones) Karma Main rains from July to September (Afar Region) Kebele The smallest administrative unit of Ethiopia Meher/Kiremt Main rains from June to September in crop dependent areas Sugum Short rains between March and April (Afar region) Wereda District, consisting of Kebele, which are the lowest administrative unit of the Government Tsidia Rains from mid-June to end of September (Tigray) Zone Administrative unit (consisting of several weredas) 2 | P a g e Acronyms CRS Catholic Relief Service CARE CARE Ethiopia DRMFSS Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector DPFSB Disaster Prevention and Food Security Bureau FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FEWS-Net Famine Early Warning System Network GOAL Irish NGO IMC International Medical Corps LIU Livelihood Integration Unit MoA Ministry of Agriculture MoH Ministry of Health MoWE Ministry of Water Resources and Energy NGOs Non- Governmental Organizations PSNP Productive Saftey Net Program Reference The year in which the baseline data for Household Economy Approach (HEA) Year analysis is collected RHB Regional Health Bureau REB Regional Education Bureau RWB Regional Water Bureau RPADB Regional Pastoral Develoment Bureau RMA Regional Meterological Agency ZHB Zonal Health Bureau SC-UK Save Children United Kingdom SNNPR Southern Nations Nationalities And Peoples Region UN United Nations UN/OCHA United Nation office for coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNICEF United Nation International Children Fund WFP World Food Program 3 | P a g e EXCUTIVE SUMMARY SOMALI Generally the food security situation for most livelihood zones of the region remained stable due to the positive (near normal to normal) effects of the two consecutive rains (deyr 2011 and gu 2012) on pasture and water availability that sustained good to average livestock conditions, improved terms of trade due to the declining trend in cereal prices and improved livestock prices. Overall, the 2012 Karan rainfall was better than last three rainy seasons, and has been demonstrated in significant improvement of pasture and water in both zones. But Siti zone reported earlier cessation that negatively affected crops germination and production particularly in the agro pastoral areas of Shinile woreda In 2012 the early onset of deyr rains improved water and pasture availability in most districts under southern zones. But areas such as, Doloado of Liban zone, Elweyn, Belanod, East-Imey, and part of Danan woredas of Shabelle zone, Dolobay, south of Charati, west and north of Barey, West Imey, and Raso woredas of Afder zone, and some pocket area of south west of Kabridaher, and west of Shaykosh woreda of Korahey zone received below normal deyr rains or even some remained dry during the season. Livestock have benefited from the favorable conditions created by the deyr and Karan rainfall that have positively affected the availability and distribution of water and pasture/browse resources in most parts of the region. Consequently, the physical appearance and body condition of all species has improved as the animals have recovered from the effects of the previous dry spell as a result of enhanced access to improved water and feed resources. Exceptions are those areas that received little or no rainfall during the season. In these areas the livestock condition is likely to deteriorate as the dry season (jilaal) progress. Little or no harvest expected from Shinile and majority of southern agro-pastoral livelihood zones as a result of the erratic nature of deyr and Karan rains. The harvest from the riverine 4 | P a g e areas is also very limited. Hence, failure of local cereal production and increased demand for food purchase under poor livestock production in areas that received little or no rainfall during the season would causes an increase in the prices of food items. As a result, in the coming six months the purchasing power of the poor and middle households is expected to decline significantly since there is limited crop production and livestock price will likely decrease further during long dry Jilaal season. Therefore due to the above noted factors, Shinile zone will remain the worst affected followed by Barey, Dolobay, Raso, and West Imey of Afder, Dolo Ado of Liban, Fik, Qubi, Salahad, and Hamero of Nogob zone, Danan, Elweyn and East Imey districts of Shabelle zone, and improvements are expected provided the performance of the upcoming seasons is good, i.e., 2013 gu (April-June). Therefore, food availability and accessibility generally remains poor in areas that experienced poor 2012 karan/deyr rains. Because of this, a total of 963,800 people are estimated to require emergency relief assistance in 2013. OROMIA Generally, the overall crop production prospects in most highland and midland parts of the region is rated as good owing to better performance of the 2012 meher rains and utilization of inputs. However, in some lowland areas of the region poor production prospects is anticipated due to insufficient rain during the belg season for long cycle crops. These include some lowland areas of Bale, Arsi, East Shewa, West Arsi, West Shewa, Borena, and East Hararghe andWest Hararghe zones. Some parts of the region including lowlands of Bale, East Hararghe and West Hararghe zones also experienced adverse weather conditions during the 2012 meher season. The failure of the 2012 belg rains also caused shortage of pasture and water availability in many agro pastoral and lowland parts of Borena, Guji, Bale, West Arsi, East Shewa, East Hararghe and west Hararghe zones. As a result the reproductive performance of livestock was affected bringing about fewer births and reduced milk production. 5 | P a g e The escalating price of staple food items, particularly that of sorghum and maize, left most households to maximize livestock sale to get more money to cover food gaps. In general, the food security situation in some of the above noted areas is expected to deteriorate in the coming months due to a combination of factors such as production loss, poor performance of last belg season, and increasing staple food prices. Because of these factors, 846 417 people in the affected areas are likely to require emergency food assistance in 2013. TIGRAY Overall food security situation in the region is likely to be stable as food and income sources are expected to be normal or even far better. Despite this, pocket areas, where crop production has been seriously affected by irregular weather (late start or early cessation of rains, long dry spells, hailstorms, floods, water logging, and unseasonable rainfall) and other weather-related shocks such as crop pests and diseases will experience significant food deficits during the current year. All in all, the