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ICES advises on sustainable management of stocks and marine ecosystems - How?

Colm Lordan ICES Advisory Committee Vice-Chair My background

• Life long scientist! • PhD in University College Cork • 20 Years experience in the Irish Marine Institute • Deep sea fisheries • • Nephrops stocks • • Participant in ~ 70 ICES expert groups (Chaired 16) • Vice Chair of ACOM for since Jan 2018. @ColmPers @ICES_ASC @MarineInst [email protected] Todays talk

• What is ICES? • Context of the advice? • How is ICES advice produced? • Data • How does ICES assess the state of fish stocks? • Precautionary and MSY Reference Points • ICES and the ecosystem approach • Global organization that develops science and advice to support the sustainable use of the seas and

• Network of 5000 experts from 700 institutes and organizations

• 1500 experts participate in the activities annually ICES Strategic Plan 2019

ICES Science Plan 2019 • ICES provides best available, scientific advice to international & national authorities

• Advice on over 240 fish stocks, advice, deep sea impact, vulnerable , marine protected areas and other marine ecosystem related advice

• Recurrent - yearly advice:  On opportunities on more than 240 stocks  On ecosystem impacts of fishing activities  Ecosystem and Fisheries Overviews – in ecoregions

• Other advice:  special requests on marine ecosystems: e.g. impacts of fisheries, pressures and impacts on seafloor, evaluation of strategies, impacts of climate change on fish stocks, evaluation of vulnerable marine habitats •Fish are a LIMITED, MOBILE and PUBLIC resource

•excessive exploitation leads to reduced productivity and possible irreversible damage • fisheries in one MS impacts the fishing opportunities of other MS

• public resource exploited by the

 Internationally-coordinated management required for sustainable fisheries International agreements • Global agreements • Policy of the clients of the advice (commissions, governments)

Policy objectives • Precautionary Approach (PA) • Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) • Ecosystem-based approach International agreements and policies: • UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982) -MSY • UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED, 1992) -precautionary approach • UN Straddling Fish Stocks Agreement of 1995 (UNFSA 1995) - precautionary approach • Convention on Biological Diversity (UN CBD, 1992) - ecosystem approach • Johannesburg Declaration of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD UN 2002)- ecosystem approach & MSY

National and regional legislation: including CFP, MSFD, Norwegian Marine Resources Act, Russian Federal Law on Fisheries, Icelandic Fisheries Management Act, Faroe Islands Fisheries Management Act ICES Advisory Committee (ACOM) is responsible of delivering ICES advice

• ACOM responds to requests for advice from ICES member countries, international commissions and organizations, and fisheries and ecosystem management bodies

• The advice is based on the precautionary principle and the ecosystem approach, conforming to the management objectives of those authorities

• ACOM works with stakeholders to ensure that the advice is understandable and relevant to society

• ACOM consists of a Chair, four Vice-Chairs, and 20 members (one representative from each of our 20 member countries) http://www.ices.dk/community/groups/Pages/ACOM.aspx

Example: North Sea Sole

Letter of Agreement The North Sea and Peer Audit of data and ICES Advisory with the European Skagerrak Assessment methods. Committee (ACOM) Commission Working Group with advice drafting group nominated experts from Independent review of formulates the advice > 10 countries meet to methods at periodic the advice is finalized analyze and assess the benchmark and appovred by ACOM status of stocks -> -> sent to the advice provide the ICES Advisory requester and published Committee (ACOM) with a on the ICES website basis for the advice Data Collection - MAP Information from fish

• Length • Weight • Age Information on trends: surveys

• Trawls • Acoustics • Plankton • UWTV

Research vessels & industry Information from catch

• Amount • Location • Timing • Bycatch

From ports, log books & observers How do we use this information? Take a stock of fish: Every stock has underlying structure Add fishing… Mortality rate

Change in the numbers at age We also measure the catch Relationship???? Population

Fishery Logbooks

Stock Assessment Landings or Catch Models Surveys Numbers-at-age Trends in from surveys & catches.

Weak cohort Strong cohort This produces a

North Sea Reference points Precautionary Approach Populations need to be maintained within safe biological limits - Certain that reproductive success is not impaired ICES Precautionary Approach

Blim limit reference points associated with reduced reproductive capacity

Bpa precautionary reference points: “buffers” to account for assessment uncertainty Maximising Yield •Yield curve shows yield as function of fishing mortality or fishing effort

MSY

Yield

Fcrash

FMSY Fishing mortality or effort Reference points maximum sustainable yield (MSY)

ICES interpretation of MSY is maximization of average long-term yield from sustainable stocks Reference points maximum sustainable yield (MSY)

Ecosystem Approach To provide the advice for next year’s catches

We project forward with our best knowledge (maturity, growth, recruits, impact of fishing gear, natural death etc.) across a range of fishing scenarios. Hierarchy of Advice

Advice is based on clients requests and is consistent with their policy objectives and frameworks: e.g. EU MAP

Taking into account precautionary and MSY objectives

~100 stocks Cat 1 ~80 Stocks Cat 3 ~ 70 Stocks Cat 4, 5, 6 http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Advice/2018/2018/Introduction_to_advice_2018.pdf Scenarios set out in management plans All management strategies in the ICES area are tested using simulations ICES Advice Rule

 Maximize long term average yield while safeguarding against low SSB

 MSY Btrigger: lower end of fluctuation expected when fishing at FMSY

F MSY B ICES MBlimSY approachtrigger for Category 1 stocks more caution F needed MSY

below Blim

SSB at start of advisory year

 MSY reference points are capped so that advice from MSY approach is also precautionary Hake – Northern stock (3.a, 4, 6, 7, 8.abd) Advice for 2020: MSY: Catch ≤ 104 763 t

• Spawning stock increased significantly since 2006 and it is well above historical estimates.

• Fishing pressure below

FMSY since 2012

• Recruitment is variable without trend. Recent recruitment is uncertain.

• Catch 2018: 96 188 t of which 7% Hake – Northern stock (3.a, 4, 6, 7, 8.abd) F(2019) = 0.24 (Recent average fishing pressure (2016-2018));

SSB (2020)= 276 565 t > MSYBtrigger (56 000 t) FMSY= 0.26

Wanted Unwanted % Advice Total catch F F % SSB Basis catch catch(2020 F (2020) wanted unwanted SSB (2021) change (2020) total (2020) (2020) change ** (2020) ) *** ICES advice basis

MSY approach = FMSY 104763 97949 6814 0.26 0.21 0.048 263204 −5% −26% Other scenarios

EU MAP ^: FMSY 104763 97949 6814 0.26 0.21 0.048 263204 −5% −26%

F = MAP FMSY lower 76334 71455 4878 0.18 0.147 0.033 290273 5% −46%

F = MAP FMSY upper 147839 137934 9905 0.4 0.33 0.074 222251 −20% 4% F = 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 363109 31% −100%

Fpa 197127 183380 13747 0.6 0.49 0.111 175485 −37% 39%

Flim 241643 224025 17618 0.84 0.68 0.155 133316 −52% 70%

SSB (2021) = Blim 339516 310343 29174 2 1.64 0.37 40037 −86% 139%

SSB (2021) = Bpa 323035 296383 26652 1.66 1.35 0.31 56000 −80% 127%

SSB (2021) = MSY Btrigger 323035 296383 26652 1.66 1.35 0.31 56000 −80% 127%

F = F2019 97699 91373 6326 0.24 0.195 0.044 269927 -2% −31% EU Recovery Plan ^^ 101394 94814 6580 0.25 0.2 0.046 266410 −4% −29% Principles of EBM

• management of human activities • consideration of collective pressures • achievement of good environmental status • sustainable use • optimization of benefits among diverse societal goals • regionalization • trade-offs

ICES ecoregions • stewardship for future generations http://www.ices.dk/explore-us/Documents/ICES%20and%20EBM.pdf https://www.ices.dk/community/advisory-process/Pages/ICES-ecosystems-and-advisory-areas.aspx Resource management & biodiversity conservation objectives

• ICES is the science adviser to NEAFC and answers annual requests from OSPAR. • NEAFC and OSPAR work together through their “collective arrangement” • ICES is a key science advisor to both EU DGMARE (CFP) and EU DGENV (MSFD and Habitats & Birds Directives)

Advice must be consistent across objectives, & bridge underlining paradigms https://www.ospar.org/about/international-cooperation/collective-arrangement Making advice for EBFM operational… (Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management)

1. Influence of a dynamic ecosystem on fisheries 2. Impact of fisheries on the ecosystem 3. Put fisheries into context of other maritime activities & pressures 4. Consequences of tradeoffs between management objectives 1. Influence of a dynamic ecosystem on fisheries • Where appropriate, account for productivity changes in stocks (recruitment, growth, natural mortality) in stock assessments, forecasts & reference points • Consider changes & overlaps in distribution of stocks in advice • Where appropriate, consider alternative productivity scenarios in management strategy evaluations (MSEs) • Account for consequences of catches from mixed fisheries in advice 2. Impact of fisheries on the ecosystem

Develop metrics & report on • Occurrence & impact of bycatch in fisheries • Fisheries impact on & services from seabed, including vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) • Synthesizes of status of fish stocks in an ecoregion 3. Put fisheries into context of other maritime activities & pressures • Determine the priority anthropogenic pressures in an ecoregion • Develop metrics & report on trends in species biodiversity & ecosystem structure • Provide information & methods for Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas (EBSAs) designation • Contribute to assessments of threatened/endangered species & habitats • Monitor & report the occurrence of invasive species 4. Consequences of tradeoffs between management objectives • Integrated ecosystem assessment groups explore suites of management objectives in each ecoregion • Tools developed for comparing the consequences for tradeoffs between objectives • Stakeholder engagement to explore methods, ideas & consequences • Practical application to advice – seabed impact, MSFD & mixed fisheries

Examples https://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Advice/2017/Special_requests/eu.2017.13.pdf http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Advice/2018/2018/mix-cs.pdf https://www.ices.dk/community/groups/Pages/WKIrish.aspx Publishing this advice…

3. Put fisheries into context of other maritime activities & pressures 1. Influence of a dynamic ecosystem on fisheries

2. Impact of fisheries on the ecosystem

https://www.ices.dk/community/advisory-process/Pages/fisheries-overviews.aspx https://www.ices.dk/community/advisory-process/Pages/Ecosystem-overviews.aspx Celtic Sea Fisheries Overview State of the stocks Celtic Sea Fisheries Overview North Sea Ecosystem Overview

Figure 3 Greater North Sea ecoregion overview with the major regional pressures, human activities, and state of the ecosyste North Sea Ecosystem Overview

Oil and Gas installations Net Primary productivity Summary

• A global marine science organization providing for impartial evidence based advice • The advice is consistent with policy objectives: PA, MSY and EBM • Engine room is ~1500 active experts, final advice approved by ACOM • Data collection is the cornerstone of providing the evidence base • Population models provide historical stock development; F, SSB and R • Reference Points are used to evaluate stock status • Short term projections are used to calculate TACs • Longer term simulations are used to evaluate management strategies • Fisheries and ecosystem overviews synthesis knowledge at and ecoregion scale www.ices.dk