Real opportunities and limitations of the development of the tourism industry in the post pandemic period
Professor Farhad Panah oglu Rahmanov ([email protected]) Doctor of Economics, Azerbaijan State Economic University (UNEC). Honored Teacher of the Republic Associate Professor Gojayeva Elmira Magomed (e.qocayeva @atmu.edu.az) Doctor of Philosophy in Economic Sciences, Head of the Department: “Marketing”, Azerbaijan Tourism and Management University Associate Professor Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov ([email protected]) Doctor of Philosophy, Vice Rector for Science of Baku Engineering University Associate professor Shahla Huseynova Akif ([email protected]) Doctor of Philosophy in Economic Sciences, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC)
Purpose of the study: To investigate the consequences of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the subsequent attitude of citizens of the republic to travel. Research methodology: In the course of the study, both general theoretical methods were used: analysis and synthesis, deduction and induction, generalization, theoretical modeling, methods of grouping and comparison, and empirical methods: document analysis, content analysis, sociological surveys (questionnaires and interviews). The theoretical and methodological basis for the sociological analysis of the strategy and tactics of various countries in the context of the coronavirus epidemic is at the stage of comparative studies and the application of their results in the practice of managing the tourism industry. The practical signifi cance of the study lies in the fact that the experience of the development of domestic tourism in the country in the subsequent post pandemic period was generalized. The author also developed a research aspect to improve and optimize the development of domestic tourism in the country. Research results: Based on the sociological survey conducted by the authors in the context of new behavioral stereotypes (increased anxiety, concern about the guarantee of non infection with COVID 19, etc.), the short term and medium term eff ect of the impact of the pandemic on domestic and inbound tourism in Azerbaijan was analyzed. Originality and scientifi c novelty of the research: The most signifi cant scientifi c results obtained personally by the author and constituting the scientifi c
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 141 novelty of the research are as follows: the prospects for the development of domestic and inbound tourism in the republic in modern conditions and in the post pandemic period, changes in the behavioral stereotypes of potential travelers: behavior strategies in depending on fi nancial opportunities for travel, their preferences in the use of intermediaries, attitude towards collective accommodation facilities, behavior in the use of additional disinfectants in residential premises, and other practices. Key words: coronavirus pandemic, tourism industry, behavioral stereotypes, accommodation facilities, sociological survey, agr tourism. JEL Classifi cation: F01; F60; I25; O11; Z32
Introduction The success of the oil strategy in booming Azerbaijan is already refl ected in the non oil sector. Tourism is one of the most important sectors of the non oil sector. Since Azerbaijan can fi ll a signifi cant part of the state budget in the tourism sector, it seeks to develop this sector and make it the most sustainable and competitive sector of the economy. Azerbaijan is one of the countries with a very high tourism potential. The position of our country both in the natural geographical and in the modern world has made Azerbaijan an interesting place for tourists. The guests of our country have many reasons to visit Azerbaijan. 9 out of 11 climatic zones in the world. A unique case, when within the same country most of the existing types of climate are found on the planet: from dry and humid subtropical (Lankaran) to mountain tundra (highlands of the Greater Caucasus). The largest salt lake on the planet is the Caspian Sea. Its area is currently about 371 thousand. sq. km, and the maximum depth is 1025 m. UNESCO World Heritage Sites. One of them is the Gobustan State Historical and Artistic Reserve a rare monument of world culture with prehistoric rock paintings, one of the fi rst centers of human civilization. Another UNESCO World Heritage Site is Icheri Sheher (Inner City) a unique historical and architectural reserve in the center of Baku. This is one of the most ancient and still densely populated places in the country and the Middle East. Here are located world famous monuments of antiquity the Maiden Tower (XII century) and the Palace of the Shirvanshahs (XIII XVI centuries). In addition, many other unique monuments have survived behind the massive fortress walls: mosques, minarets, remains of caravanserais, baths [1]. The unique resort of medicinal oil “Naftalan” has gained world fame due to the unique medicinal naphthalan oil in its biological properties, which has no analogues on the planet. The resort is located 20 km from the second largest city of Azerbaijan Ganja, in the zone of the naftalan oil fi eld, the city of Naftalan. Mud volcanoes. Azerbaijan ranks fi rst in the world by the
142 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020 number of mud volcanoes. There are about 350 of the 800 mud volcanoes on earth. Every year, thousands of tourists visit Azerbaijan to see spectacular eruptions of mud volcanoes, accompanied by explosions and underground rumbles. National cuisine of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani cuisine is one of the most interesting and delicious not only in the East but also in the world. Most of Azerbaijani dishes are made from lamb, beef and poultry [2]. Diff erent regions of the country have their own famous signature dishes. In Sheki, these are piti (Azerbaijani national lamb soup prepared in a sealed earthenware dish in the oven), halva (an oriental dessert made from sugar, nuts or seeds), in Masalli and Lankarani levengi (chicken or fi sh stuff ed with ground nuts with spices ) etc. Baku Boulevard. The Baku Seaside Park, aka Boulevard, is the most attractive place for everyone who comes to the capital of Azerbaijan, regardless of the purpose of visiting the country, in 2009 celebrated its 100th anniversary. Modern architecture. Along with historical sights, modern Baku has new symbols. First of all, this is the famous Flame Towers complex, which consists of 3 buildings. The famous Heydar Aliyev Cultural Center, a complex building that includes a congress center, a museum, a library and a 9 hectare park, has gained no less fame. And fi nally, the ultra modern Crystal Hall concert complex, located on the State Flag Square in Baku, which hosted the Eurovision 2012 contest [3]. As you can see, Azerbaijan has great tourism potential, including for receiving foreign tourists. Tourism in Azerbaijan is represented by a wide variety of types. The most actively developing are ecological, sports, educational, business, health improving, fi shing, hunting, event and gastronomic types of tourism. The necessary legal and regulatory framework has been created for the development of this industry. The capacity of the tourism services market in Azerbaijan can be estimated as average. In 2019, 3.5 million foreign tourists used tourist services [4].
Methods Azerbaijan has been demonstrating high growth rates of the tourism market for several years already today they reach 10% per year, which is almost three times higher than the world average. At least 2 3 objects of tourist infrastructure hotels, boarding houses, sanatoriums are commissioned monthly. However, judging by the types of establishments in terms of the level of service, there is a shortage of three or four star hotels that would be focused on middle class accommodation, whose share in the tourist fl ow reaches 70%. The cost of living in luxury hotels currently starts from 120 150 euros per day, in the budget segment the cost of living is 50 70 euros per day. With a fairly high growth in the number of guests, the income of the
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 143 hotel business in 2019 compared to 2015. grew 2.6 times and are estimated by the State Statistics Committee at $ 265 million [5]. On average, revenues per hotel amounted to $ 412.5 thousand. It should be noted that the revenues came mainly from the sale of rooms (64.7%) and catering for guests (23.4%). On average, expenses per one hotel unit amounted to $ 350 250. Less than a third of expenses (30.5%) are accounted for by salaries. Taking into account the statistics of income and expenses, it is easy to calculate that the hotel business in Azerbaijan last year brought owners an average of 25 26 thousand dollars in profi t. The potential for tourism development and the demand for tourism services has caused a boom in the construction of small hotels and has caused an increase in the number of hotels in international hotel chains in Azerbaijan Hyatt, Radisson, Kempinski, Marriott, Hilton, Four Seasons, Fairmont, Jumeirah, Rixos, Sheraton and Swissôtel. National hotel chains are also being created, as the volume of investment proposals for hotel construction from both foreign and domestic investors is growing [6]. The total number of hotel rooms in 642 hotels was 49980 at the beginning of the year. According to the State Statistics Committee, the hotel room stock allows to receive about 34 thousand guests at a time. At the same time, 31% of the one time capacity is accounted for by the capital’s hotels. At the end of last year, hotels in the regions and Baku served 1.9 million customers, which is 3 times more than in 2015. More than 68.6% or about 1.3 million hotel customers were foreign citizens. At the beginning of 2019, there were up to 5 hotel rooms for every 1,000 Baku residents, while the average European norm is 15 rooms. A fairly large market volume is occupied by travel operators and agents who are ready to off er a combined travel product. More than 20 Azerbaijani travel companies and hotels have been granted membership in the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). The largest share of the tourist services market is occupied by cultural tourism. The restoration of cultural objects is carried out annually, which are then included in tourist routes. Cultural tourism brings great profi t to both the country’s budget and the local population. Cultural tourism includes several types of tours, such as the “Carpet Tour”, which includes a visit to the Museum of Carpet, the country’s modern carpet production and a trip to cities that are famous for their traditions in carpet making. Wine “Sharab tour” includes visits to wine and cognac industries of the country, including traditional wine making centers, dinners in restaurants, tasting of local alcoholic products. Beach vacation is represented by several tourist areas on the coast of the Caspian Sea. The largest providers of travel services here are AF Hotel & AquaPark. “ Economy class beach vacations are represented by several hotels located in the southern part of the Caspian Sea coast, at a suffi cient distance from major cities [7].
144 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020 Azerbaijani economy, promotes tourism activities and creates favorable conditions for its development, determines and supports priority areas of tourism activities, forms an idea of Azerbaijan as a country favorable for tourism, provides support and protection. From 1994 to 2019, the state bodies of Azerbaijan adopted more than 60 laws in the fi eld of culture and tourism. The priority regions in terms of attracting tourists are Europe and Asia. Over the past three years, more than 300 organizations have been licensed to operate in the tourism sector [8]. Historical, cultural and ecological tourism can take a special place here, there are already companies that are ready to off er tours along the developed routes with full household and excursion support of the consumer of the service. It is also worth noting the high growth rates of beach recreation, Azerbaijan has suffi ciently high quality Caspian beaches and a developing hotel infrastructure of various price ranges. On the basis of the “Strategic” roadmap for the development of a specialized tourism industry in Azerbaijan “, it is envisaged to create new proposals for health tourism for local and foreign citizens, support the development of winter tourism, create routes for cultural tourism, strengthen sustainable tourism potential (rural tourism, ecotourism), and also carrying out relevant work on the development of business tourism. For example, Naftalan is a unique health tourism destination for tourists from Russia, Kazakhstan and other CIS countries. In recent years, a number of measures have been taken to renovate health tourism sites, including health resorts. An example of this is the restoration in 2010 in Naftalan and in 2013 in the Shabran region of several sanatoriums as spa and health centers. In addition, in order to develop health tourism with the support of the ministry, the Azerbaijan Public Association for the Support of Health and Thermal Tourism (AHTTSA) was created. The cultural tourism route “The Great Silk Road”, which in ancient times ran from Europe to Asia through the Caucasus, is one of the most attractive tourist products. Also, in order to increase the attractiveness of Azerbaijan for tourists belonging to various segments of interest, such cultural tourism routes as “Alexander Dumas in the Caucasus”, “Wine Route in Azerbaijan”, “Traces of Germans in Azerbaijan”, “Traces of Poles in Azerbaijan” , “The path of historical victories and the courage of grandfathers”, many routes were certifi ed. The share of tourism in Azerbaijan’s GDP in 2019 was 2.4%. For comparison, in neighboring Georgia this fi gure is 7%, in Turkey - 12%. Azerbaijan is visited by 2.5 million tourists. Just a few years ago, only a small part of the inhabitants of Azerbaijan could get up on skis, and those who like winter tourism had to go abroad. But for the third winter season in the country there are two ski resorts - Shahdag and Tufan Dag.
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 145 Results and Discussions Over the past 10 years, the indicators of the tourism industry have quadrupled. Tourism industry revenues are estimated at $ 2.5 billion. This amount is about 5 6% of non oil GDP. This includes the income of 432 tour operators and travel agencies and companies (430 of them are privately owned), 642 hotels, hotels, resort centers and guest houses, representative offi ces of foreign airlines, which together employ about 12.5 thousand people. For the period 2015-2019, the income of tour operators and travel agencies increased by 1.7 times and amounted to in 2019. 63.4 million manats. Hotel revenues increased 2.4 times and reached 450.2 million manats in 2019. The average income of the industry per visitor is about $ 1,050.According to the State Statistics Committee of Azerbaijan, 59,700 people were employed in the domestic labor market in tourism in 2019. In the fi eld of accommodation (hotels and similar accommodation facilities) in 2019, 12.5 thousand people were employed (average annual number). The value added value in the tourism sector was in 2019. 3.7billion manat. Tour operator enterprises (tour operators and travel agents) employed 2.2 thousand people during the same period. At the same time, it should be noted that the theoretical and methodological basis for the sociological analysis of the strategy and tactics of the governments of various countries in the context of the coronavirus epidemic is in its infancy, which makes it diffi cult to conduct comparative studies and the application of their results in the practice of managing the tourism industry. The attitudes and stereotypes of the population’s behavior in the context of attitudes towards travel in the context of a pandemic, planning of tourist trips in Azerbaijan and outside the republic have not been suffi ciently studied. There is very little empirical data refl ecting, on the one hand, the needs and interests of the population in the fi eld of tourism in the near future (in the context of the temporary lifting of travel restrictions and partial resumption of air traffi c), and, on the other hand, the real possibilities and limitations of the development of the tourism industry in the post-pandemic period. Based on this judgment, it should be noted that the sociological survey, which asks the following question:
146 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020 Do you think there is a COVID 19 epidemic in your country?
Age (years) All 18 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55+ Base 417 207 69 55 53 33 No, the epidemic 27,6% 26,1% 23,2% 30,9% 39,6% 21,2% has already passed Yes, the peak is yet 4,6% 3,4% 4,3% 5,5% 3,8% 12,1% Do you think there to come is a COVID 19 Yes, now is the 7,2% 6,3% 4,3% 3,6% 13,2% 15,2% epidemic in your peak country? Yes, but I can’t estimate whether 60,7% 64,3% 68,1% 60,0% 43,4% 51,5% the peak is coming or passed Base: All respondents Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
As we can see, the data indicate that 27.6% of respondents say that the epidemic has not yet passed, since 60.7% answered with diffi culty; that they are at a loss whether the peak has passed or not. The above topics prompted a sociological study of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the tourism industry by scientists from Azerbaijani universities in March - April 2020. The total sample size for Azerbaijan was 417 respondents from diff erent regions of Azerbaijan. The bulk of the respondents 51.4% aged 24 to 55 years and more. 24.7% of respondents are civil servants (workers in the fi eld of education, medicine, lawyers, economists, programmers, engineers), 42.2% are undergraduates, doctoral students and students of 2 4 courses of economic, tourism and legal specialties, 18.9% work in the private sector (managers and employees in a private company, freelancers), 8.9% retirees, housewives and the unemployed. To the question:
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 147 Do you think there is a COVID 19 epidemic in your country?
Q7Q% .1J@ .V`V1: R V]1RVI1H1J7Q%`HQ%J `7- ^":V _ cZ5 _XZ_!]Z P Q5 .VV]1RVI1H1)Q0V` Q RP5 _ZZ ZX _V)5 .V`V11CC) 1CCGV:]V:@ RP5 Z`P P ` _ 0&, Q Q Q RP5ZTZ_ V)5G% 3H:J :]]`VH1: V: ZX _ ___ Z]V:@ ) - Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
As you can see, the majority of the respondents (60.7%) answered not in the affi rmative. 27.6% of survey participants are sure that there is no epidemic. The percentage of respondents who believe the pandemic is in full swing was 7.2%. Another 4.6% of those surveyed believe that the peak of the pandemic is still ahead. It is noteworthy that even those who answered affi rmatively to the question of the existence of the coronavirus pandemic in the country have no idea whether the peak of the pandemic is to be expected, or whether it has already passed. In our opinion, the results of the survey on the fi rst question indicate that the population of the republic at the very beginning of the pandemic did not fully understand all the threats to life associated with the coronavirus. In a sense, a mitigating circumstance may be the fact that in March 2020, i.e. at the time of the survey, much was still not clear even to specialists, let alone the population. The republic had just entered quarantine, a detailed action plan was approved to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on socio-economic life, the number of infected people and mortality were at a low level. The next question was as follows:
148 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020 Do you consider taking a tourist trip within your country at the earliest opportunity after the lifting of the state of emergency in your country? Gender All Women Men Question Answers 417 286 131 Yes 23,3% 23,8% 22,1% Are you considering Rather yes than no 23,7% 24,5% 22,1% taking a tourist trip within your country ... More likely no than yes 30,0% 31,1% 27,5% No 23,0% 20,6% 28,2% Base: All respondents Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
As you can see, the survey data showed that only 23.3% of respondents agree to travel within the country at the earliest opportunity after the lifting of the state of emergency to undertake a tourist trip within your country. Attitude towards travel within the country after the abolition of quarantine. In the fi rst 1 2 months after the lifting of the state of emergency in your country, would you take to travel abroad if foreign tourists were allowed there? Gender All Women Men Answers 417 286 131 Yes 17,3% 15,7% 20,6% Rather yes than no 16,5% 15,0% 19,8% More likely no than yes 28,3% 29,7% 25,2% No 37,9% 39,5% 34,4% Base: All respondents Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
The corona crisis has exacerbated trends in recent years: a decline in organized tourism and commitment to tour packages, an increase in ecotourism, increased use of digital technologies, the use of online aggregators and platforms, individualization and personalization of off ers, etc. In general, in the near future, a decrease in the total number of both international and domestic tourist trips can be predicted. This is facilitated by a number of factors: the global recession and the decline in the purchasing power of
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 149 the population; widespread fears of COVID 19 infection among potential tourists; restriction of the range of tourist services associated with the need to distance rise in the cost of services for tourists; as well as the fear of infection, forcing potential tourists to avoid large crowds, a signifi cant change in behavioral stereotypes (transition to more intensive online consumption, including virtual travel). In addition, much more attention should be paid to the sanitary and epidemiological protection of resort areas than before. At the same time, factors restraining the development of tourism associated with anti epidemiological restrictions will aff ect the market, at least before the start of mass vaccination. In these conditions, the preservation and even increase of domestic and inbound tourism, despite the reduction in demand, is possible only by replacing part of the outbound tourist fl ow with trips to the AR and promoting Azerbaijani tourist destinations in the global market. Tourist market participants should focus on domestic tourism, as it can recover faster than outbound%4 . && tourism. 4
1 "# $%& / 0! / ! ' ' 5 Q 5 Q 5 Q 5Q 5Q 5Q 5Q 5Q VZ_P b]_P N Z B8
MP^P cZ RPX! Z^Z SP__Z! RP5X! _Q_ZS RP5X! Z^Z SP__ P Z P & , 5 && This will require a change in the supply structure in the tourism sector, the introduction of new products and services to the market, fl exible regulation and eff ective government support for the industry. Are you considering taking tourist travel within your country at the earliest opportunity after the lifting of the state of emergency in your country?
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150 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020
Q7Q%HQJ1RV` :@1J$: Q%`1 `1]11 .1J7Q%`HQ%J `7: .V V:`C1V Q]]Q` %J1 7:` V` .VC1` 1J$Q` .V : VQ`VIV`$VJH71J7Q%` HQ%J `7- Q Q RP V) ZZXP5ZZ`: .V`7V) .:JJQ ZZZ5ZXP JQ .:J7V) cZ Q Q Q Thus, the pandemic has created favorable conditions for the development of domestic tourism in Azerbaijan. It is quite logical to expect an increase in the number of Azerbaijani tourists who prefer to spend their summer holidays in 2020 inside the country. Such a vacation is easier to organize, it does not require visas and is associated with lower risks, since it does not depend on the opening of borders between countries and, against the background of a decrease in the income of a certain part of the population, it will most likely be more aff ordable for the residents of the republic in fi nancial terms. The survey materials showed that despite the diffi cult epidemiological and economic situation, residents of the republic are planning to go on vacation next summer. To the question: “Do you think about taking a tourist trip within your country at the earliest opportunity after the lifting of the state of emergency in your country?” the opinions of the respondents were divided approximately equally. Most do not want to sacrifi ce their vacation, but they make plans with caution. Traveling abroad in the near future remains questionable, so when people were asked about domestic holidays, 47% said they were ready for it. Among those surveyed, 53% are not ready to travel to Azerbaijan after self isolation, despite the fact that they are already “tired” of quarantine. Moreover, 23% of residents of the republic are ready to categorically exclude long trips due to fear of contracting coronavirus.
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 151 Would you visit any of the countries that you think are most aff ected by COVID-19 by the end of 2020? Gender All Women Men Answers 417 286 131 Yes 9,1% 6,6% 14,5% Rather yes than no 11,8% 11,5% 12,2% More likely no than yes 26,1% 29,4% 19,1% No 53,0% 52,4% 54,2%
Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
Where do you think the sanitary conditions (inclusive of service personnel) will be safer, and where would you prefer to move in so as not to get infected and spread COVID-19? Gender All Women Men Answers 417 286 131 In your own house / villa 67,9% 70,6% 61,8% Hotel 4/5 stars 26,9% 25,9% 29,0% In a hotel from a hotel chain 18,5% 17,1% 21,4% Airbnb apartment 8,9% 8,0% 10,7% Hotel 1,2 or 3 stars 3,4% 2,8% 4,6% Hostel / Guest House 1,9% 1,7% 2,3% Other 0,7% 1,0% 0,0%
Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
152 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020 If you decide to spend your vacation in a lodging facility (hotel, living rooms, Airbnb apartment, or whatever), would you use your own disinfectant to further clean the room and bathrooms? Gender All Women Men Answers 417 286 131 Yes 24,7% 21,7% 31,3% Rather yes than no 11,5% 11,2% 12,2% More likely no than yes 6,5% 7,0% 5,3% No 2,9% 2,8% 3,1%
In your own house / villa 54,4% 57,3% 48,1%
Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
Do you think that after the end of the pandemic or the end of the state of emergency, you will have resources for tourism?
Gender All Women Men Answers 417 286 131
Yes 25,9% 23,1% 32,1%
Rather yes than no 32,9% 35,3% 27,5%
More likely no than yes 24,7% 25,9% 22,1%
No 16,5% 15,7% 18,3% Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 153 Given the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on travel companies, are you planning to use a tour operator or travel agency when booking a hotel, purchasing an airline ticket or a transfer?
Gender All Women Men Answers 417 286 131 No 52,8% 53,1% 51,9% Yes, for hotel reservation 30,7% 29,0% 34,4% Yes, for buying tickets 27,3% 27,6% 26,7%
Yes , for booking a transfer 12,5% 12,6% 12,2% Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
If you went on a tourist trip, would YOU decide to use your own transport after the COVID-19 pandemic?
All Gender
Women Men Question Answers 417 286 131
Yes 47,0% 44,8% 51,9% Q10 If you went on a tourist trip, would Rather yes , than no 23,0% 25,5% 17,6% YOU decide to use your own transport after the COVID-19 pandemic? More likely no, than yes 10,8% 11,2% 9,9%
No 19,2% 18,5% 20,6% Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
154 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020 Are you planning to take part in a tour organized by a tour operator in 2020?
Gender All Women Men Question Answer 417 286 131
Are you planning to take Yes 11,5% 11,2% 12,2% part in a tour organized Rather yes , than no 18,0% 17,1% 19,8% by a tour operator in 2020? More likely no, than yes 23,5% 25,2% 19,8% No 47,0% 46,5% 48,1% Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
Of those who intend to use the services of travel intermediaries, slightly less than a third (30.7%) indicated that they use the services of a tour operator or travel agency when booking a hotel. A slightly smaller share of the respondents (27.3 %% will use the services of intermediaries when buying an air ticket. About 12.5% are going to use the services of travel intermediaries to book a transfer. Where are you planning to spend your summer vacation? The survey results once again confi rmed the fact that the pandemic seriously aff ected the plans of the republic’s residents during the vacation period. According to the results of the survey, the majority of residents are planning to spend their holidays and rest within the republic: at home, in a country house, to relax in a sanatorium or resort in the republic, to devote their free vacation time to excursions to the sights of Azerbaijan. The fear of getting infected dictates a large part of the republic’s residents to stay within the republic, limiting themselves to passive rest. Only one tenth (9.1%) of the respondents, despite the danger of catching the coronavirus, still prefer active pastime excursions outside the place of residence, but within Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani potential tourists show restrained optimism in assessing the prospects for going abroad during the vacation period. 28.3% of respondents expect the opening of borders, and plan to devote it to recreation and excursions. Of them (23.5%) are going to rest outside the republic in specialized institutions, and 4.8% devote their rest to excursions. These fi gures partly testify to the tendency of the citizens of Azerbaijan over the past two decades to spend their holidays outside the republic in order to learn about the world, expand their ideas about it, get acquainted with samples of world culture, and get acquainted with historical and cultural monuments. Another main motivation for traveling abroad was and is the high standards of service for tourists
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 155 abroad, which our travel service organizers cannot yet boast of. The main reason for the refusal to travel abroad in the summer of 2020 is the uncertainty that it will be possible “technically” that the borders will be opened, hotels and other tourist service organizations will start working. Other reasons are a decrease in income, and fears for their health. More than half of the respondents (52.8%) answered negatively to this question. What stops more than half of our fellow citizens? In our opinion, this testifi es, fi rst of all, to the fact that most likely, the respondents assume that the organizers of the tourist service of the republic, who have spent a lot of money during the quarantine, will “increase” prices for their services, which, superimposed on the drop in income of potential tourists , and leads to the refusal of the latter from the services of various intermediaries. Another reason, most likely, is the tradition of citizens of the republic, like before the pandemic, when traveling within the country, to use personal, family based informal ties, to negotiate directly with a hotel, sanatorium and other recreation and tourism institutions. This is especially true for the low income category of our fellow citizens.
Do you consider taking a tourist trip within your country at the earliest opportunity after the lifting of the state of emergency in your country? Age all 18 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55+ Question 417 207 69 55 53 33 Yes 23,3% 16,4% 30,4% 32,7% 35,8% 15,2% Do you consider taking a tourist Rather yes, than no 23,7% 17,9% 30,4% 27,3% 22,6% 42,4% trip within your More likely no, than 30,0% 36,7% 26,1% 23,6% 18,9% 24,2% country at the … yes No 23,0% 29,0% 13,0% 16,4% 22,6% 18,2% Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
156 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020 In the fi rst 1-2 months after the lifting of the state of emergency in your country, would you undertake travel abroad if foreign tourists were allowed there?
All Age
18 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55+ Question 417 207 69 55 53 33 Q3. In the fi rst Yes 17,3% 13,0% 21,7% 21,8% 22,6% 18,2% 1-2 months after the lifting Rather yes, than no 16,5% 13,5% 23,2% 16,4% 18,9% 18,2% More likely no, than of the state of 28,3% 30,4% 21,7% 20,0% 26,4% 45,5% emergency in yes your country… No 37,9% 43,0% 33,3% 41,8% 32,1% 18,2% Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
Where are you planning to spend your summer vacation?
Age All 18 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55+ Answers 417 207 69 55 53 33 In a village or country house 40,5% 38,6% 37,7% 61,8% 30,2% 39,4% (own or your friend) On vacation in 38,8% 45,4% 34,8% 30,9% 35,8% 24,2% your country At home 26,4% 34,8% 11,6% 20,0% 24,5% 18,2% Vacation abroad 23,5% 22,7% 27,5% 18,2% 22,6% 30,3% Excursion in your 9,1% 8,2% 13,0% 7,3% 9,4% 9,1% country Excursion abroad 4,8% 3,4% 7,2% 7,3% 3,8% 6,1% I do not plan 0,7% 1,4% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% anything Other 0,5% 1,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 157 Would you visit any of the countries that you think are most aff ected by COVID-19 by the end of 2020? Age All 18 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55+ Question 417 207 69 55 53 33 Would you Yes 9,1% 9,2% 14,5% 7,3% 7,5% 3,0% visit any of the countries that Rather yes, than no 11,8% 10,1% 13,0% 14,5% 13,2% 12,1% you think are More likely no, than 26,1% 23,2% 29,0% 27,3% 26,4% 36,4% most aff ected by yes COVID-19 by the end of 2020? No 53,0% 57,5% 43,5% 50,9% 52,8% 48,5%
Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
Where do you think the sanitary conditions (including service personnel) will be safer, and where would you prefer to move in so as not to get infected and spread COVID-19? Age All 18 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55+ Answers 417 207 69 55 53 33 In your own 67,9% 73,9% 56,5% 72,7% 62,3% 54,5% house or villa Hotel 4/5 stars 26,9% 29,0% 29,0% 20,0% 18,9% 33,3% In hotel from a 18,5% 15,5% 29,0% 16,4% 18,9% 18,2% hotel chain Airbnb apartment 8,9% 7,2% 7,2% 12,7% 11,3% 12,1% Hotel 1,2 or 3 3,4% 2,9% 2,9% 1,8% 3,8% 9,1% stars Hostel/Guest 1,9% 2,9% 0,0% 1,8% 1,9% 0,0% house Other 0,7% 1,0% 0,0% 0,0% 1,9% 0,0% Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
158 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020 If you decide to take a vacation to a lodging facility (hotel, lounges, Airbnb apartment, or whatever), would you use your own disinfectant to further clean the room and bathrooms? Age All 18 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55+ Question 417 207 69 55 53 33 Q7. If you Yes 24,7% 24,2% 30,4% 21,8% 20,8% 27,3% decide to take a vacation Rather yes, than no 11,5% 10,6% 10,1% 12,7% 11,3% 18,2% to a lodging More likely no, than 6,5% 5,8% 10,1% 3,6% 5,7% 9,1% facility (hotel, yes lounges, Airbnb No 2,9% 1,9% 5,8% 1,8% 3,8% 3,0% apartment, or whatever), would you use your own In your own house 54,4% 57,5% 43,5% 60,0% 58,5% 42,4% disinfectant to or villa further clean the room and bathrooms? Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
Do you think that after the end of the pandemic or the end of the state of emergency, you will have resources for tourism?
All Age
18 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55+ Question 417 207 69 55 53 33
Do you think Yes 25,9% 23,7% 33,3% 40,0% 11,3% 24,2% that after the end of the Rather yes, than no 32,9% 30,9% 23,2% 32,7% 43,4% 48,5% pandemic or the More likely no, than 24,7% 27,5% 29,0% 16,4% 20,8% 18,2% end of the state yes of emergency, you will have resources for No 16,5% 17,9% 14,5% 10,9% 24,5% 9,1% tourism? Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 159 Given the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on travel companies, are you planning to use a tour operator or travel agency when booking a hotel, purchasing an air ticket or a transfer? Age All 18 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55+ Answers 417 207 69 55 53 33 No 52,8% 56,5% 44,9% 49,1% 54,7% 48,5%
Yes, for hotel 30,7% 27,1% 33,3% 38,2% 32,1% 33,3% reservation Yes, for buying 27,3% 25,1% 34,8% 27,3% 20,8% 36,4% tickets Yes , for booking 12,5% 10,6% 15,9% 7,3% 13,2% 24,2% a transfer Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
If you went on a tourist trip, would YOU decide to use your own transport after the COVID-19 pandemic? All Age
18 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55+ Question 417 207 69 55 53 33 Q10. If you went on a tourist Yes 47,0% 54,6% 37,7% 49,1% 43,4% 21,2% trip, would YOU decide to Rather yes, than no 23,0% 19,3% 29,0% 27,3% 28,3% 18,2% use your own More likely no, than transport after 10,8% 11,1% 17,4% 9,1% 3,8% 9,1% the COVID-19 yes pandemic? No 19,2% 15,0% 15,9% 14,5% 24,5% 51,5% Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova)
160 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020 Are you planning to take part in a tour organized by a tour operator in 2020? Age All 18 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55+ Question 417 207 69 55 53 33 Are you Yes 11,5% 10,1% 13,0% 18,2% 7,5% 12,1% planning to take part in a tour Rather yes, than no 18,0% 14,5% 29,0% 16,4% 22,6% 12,1% organized by a More likely no, than 23,5% 27,1% 20,3% 18,2% 15,1% 30,3% tour operator in yes 2020? No 47,0% 48,3% 37,7% 47,3% 54,7% 45,5% Base: all respondents. Source: research conducted by the authors (Farhad Rahmanov, Gojayeva Elmira, Elchin Bahman oglu Suleymanov, Shahla Huseynova) Thus, in the presence of extensive scientifi c material on the problems of tourism in general, we do not have works devoted to assessing the short term and medium term eff ects of the spread of COVID 19 on domestic and inbound tourism, analyzing the consequences of the imposed restrictions on the movement of citizens and the work of the industry, the eff ectiveness of measures to support the tourism industry. and the hospitality industry in a pandemic, the rational choice of tactics for the behavior of the population, the peculiarities of reactions to compliance with sanitary regulations on the part of citizens, etc. One of them is the Gobustan State Historical and Artistic Reserve a rare monument of world culture with prehistoric rock paintings, one of the fi rst centers of human civilization. Another UNESCO World Heri tage Site is Icheri Sheher (“Inner City”) a unique historical and architectural reserve in the center of Baku. This is one of the most ancient and still densely populated places in the country, and even in the Middle East. Here are located world famous monuments of antiquity the Maiden Tower (XII century) and the Palace of the Shirvanshahs (XIII XVI centuries). In addition, many other unique monuments have survived behind the massive fortress walls: mosques, minarets, remains of caravanserais, baths. The unique resort of healing oil Naftalan. Naftalan resort has gained world fame, thanks to the unique me dicinal naphthalan oil in its biological properties, which has no analogues on the planet. The resort is located 20 km from the second largest city of Azerbai jan Ganja, in the zone of the naftalan oil fi eld, the city of Naftalan. Mud vol canoes. Azerbaijan ranks fi rst in the world by the number of mud volcanoes. There are about 350 of the 800 mud volcanoes on earth. Every year, thousands of tourists visit Azerbaijan to see spectacular eruptions of mud volcanoes, ac companied by explosions and underground rumbles. National cuisine of Azer baijan. Azerbaijani cuisine is one of the most interesting in the East. Most of
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 161 Azerbaijani dishes are made from lamb, beef and poultry. Azerbaijanis, like other Muslims, do not eat pork. Diff erent regions of the country have their own famous signature dishes. In Sheki, these are piti (Azerbaijani national lamb soup prepared in a sealed earthenware dish in the oven), halva (an orien tal dessert made from sugar, nuts or seeds), in Masalli and Lankarani levengi (chicken or fi sh stuff ed with ground nuts with spices ) etc. The Baku Seaside Park, aka Boulevard, is the most attractive place for everyone who comes to the capital of Azerbaijan, regardless of the purpose of visiting the country, in 2009 celebrated its 100th anniversary. Modern architecture. Along with historical sights, modern Baku has new symbols. First of all, this is the famous Flame Towers complex, which consists of 3 buildings. The famous Heydar Aliyev Cultural Center, a complex building that includes a congress center, a museum, a library and a 9 hectare park, has gained no less fame. And fi nally, the ultra modern Crystal Hall concert complex, located on the State Flag Square in Baku, which hosted the Eurovision 2012 contest. As you can see, Azerbaijan has great tourism potential, including for receiving foreign tourists. Tourism in Azerbaijan is represented by a wide variety of types. The most actively developing are ecological, sports, educational, business, health improving, fi shing, hunting, event and gastronomic types of tourism. The necessary legal and regulatory framework has been created for the development of this industry. The capacity of the tourism services market in Azerbaijan can be estimated as average. In 2017, 2.5 million foreign tourists used tourist services. According to the latest data, there are 530 hotels in the country, new recreation areas, and other service and entertainment infrastructure are being created. Azerbaijan has been demonstrating high growth rates of the tourism market for several years already today they reach 10% per year, which is almost three times higher than the world average. At least 2 3 objects of tourist infrastructure hotels, boarding houses, sanatoriums are commissioned monthly. However, judging by the types of establishments in terms of the level of service, there is a shortage of three or four star hotels that would be focused on middle class accommodation, whose share in the tourist fl ow reaches 70%. The cost of living in luxury hotels currently starts from 120 150 euros per day, in the budget segment the cost of living is 50 70 euros per day. In total, tourism brings about $ 1.5 billion to the Azerbaijani economy, on average, an increase in the infl ow of funds to this sector of the economy increases annually by 5 7%. With an insuffi ciently high growth in the number of guests, the income of the hotel business in 2017 increased by 23.4% and is estimated by the State Statistics Committee at $ 220 million. On average, revenues per hotel amounted to $ 412 thousand. It should be noted that revenues came mainly from the sale of rooms (64.7%) and catering
162 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020 for guests (23.4%). However, the expenses of Azerbaijani hoteliers grew at a much faster pace last year. Goskomstat estimates the total revenues of the country’s hotels at 185.6 million dollars, which is 31.4% more than in 2012. On average, expenses per one hotel unit amounted to $ 350 250. Less than a third of expenses (30.5%) are accounted for by salaries. Taking into account the statistics of income and expenses, it is easy to calculate that the hotel business in Azerbaijan last year brought owners an average of 25 26 thousand dollars in profi t. Taking into account the prevalence of large international hotel chains in hotel revenues (60% and more), this average fi gure is more than modest. The potential for tourism development and the demand for tourism services has caused a boom in the construction of small hotels and has caused an increase in the number of hotels in international hotel chains in Azerbaijan Hyatt, Radisson, Kempinski, Marriott, Hilton, Four Seasons, Fairmont, Jumeirah, Rixos, Sheraton and Swissôtel. National hotel chains are also being created, as the volume of investment proposals for hotel construction from both foreign and domestic investors is growing. The total number of hotel rooms in 530 hotels was 16559 at the beginning of 2018. According to the State Statistics Committee, the hotel room stock allows to receive about 34 thousand guests at a time. At the same time, 31% of the one time capacity is accounted for by the capital’s hotels. Last year, hotels in the regions and Baku served 666.3 thousand clients, which is 6.6% more than in 2012. More than 59% or about 396 thousand hotel clients were foreign citizens. It should be noted that the belonging of a hotel to one category or another in Azerbaijan does not always aff ect the cost of its services. Much depends on occupancy rates and seasonal trends. At the beginning of 2017, there were up to 5 hotel rooms for every 1,000 Baku residents, while the average European norm is 15 rooms. On the one hand, it turns out that the capital’s hotel market is still very far from saturation, and on the other hand, the average annual occupancy rate of hotels is low. It is, according to various estimates, from 30% to 45%. Meanwhile, the secret of the low workload of the hotel stock in Baku is the lack of mid segment hotels, which include the same mini hotels (with less than 30 rooms) It is diffi cult for foreigners to fi nd hotels in the center of Baku where accommodation would cost $ 50 60 per day, while in New York, London and other large cities, also known for the presence of large hotel chains, it is easy to fi nd mini-hotels where cost per day starts at $ 35. A fairly large market volume is occupied by travel operators and agents who are ready to off er a combined travel product. More than twenty Azerbaijani travel companies and hotels have been granted membership in the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). The largest share of the tourist services market is occupied by cultural tourism. The restoration of cultural objects is carried out
Revista Română de Statistică Supliment nr. 12 / 2020 163 annually, which are then included in tourist routes. Cultural tourism brings great profi t to both the country’s budget and the local population. At the same time, it should be noted that the country has certain results on the export of products. The November 2020 issue of the Center for Economic Reforms Analysis and Communication’s “Export Review” has been presented. During the fi rst ten months of 2020, Azerbaijan exported $ 12.2 billion, including $ 1.4 billion in the non-oil sector. In January-October this year, non-oil goods worth $ 550.6 million were exported to Russia, $ 285.5 million to Turkey, $ 176 million to Switzerland, $ 109.1 million to Georgia and $ 34.7 million to China. The list of non-oil exports in January-October 2020 includes tomatoes ($ 173 million), gold (not used in coinage, other unprocessed forms - $ 158.7 million) and cotton. mahliqi ($ 94.7 million) was third. During the fi rst 10 months of 2020, fruit and vegetable exports amounted to 467.3 million, cotton fi ber exports to 95.8 million, aluminum and aluminum products exports to 86.7 million, chemical industry exports to 70 million, ferrous metals and their products 42 , 9 million, cotton yarn exports 13.6 million, alcoholic and non- alcoholic beverages 9.7 million, sugar exports 16.8 million, vegetable and animal fats and oils exports 19.2 million, tea exports 7.7 million US dollars formed. In October 2020, exports in the non-oil sector amounted to $ 162.8 million. In October 2020, the share of food products in the non-oil sector was 48.8 percent, and in the non-food sector - 51.2 percent. In October of this year, the largest volume of non-oil and gas products was exported to Russia ($ 64.7 million), Turkey ($ 33.5 million), Switzerland ($ 10.7 million), and Georgia ($ 9.5 million). USD) and to the USA (5.4 million USD). In the non-oil sector, exports in October 2020 ranked fi rst with dates ($ 19.7 million), peeled hazelnuts ($ 17 million), and other fresh fruits ($ 13.6 million). The November issue of the Export Review also presents a rating of major exporters in the non-oil sector. The following companies are represented in the top ten in the ranking of non-state exporters for January-October this year: Socar Polymer LLC, Azerbaijan International Mining Representation of Company Limited Company in the Republic of Azerbaijan, Land Logistic LLC, MKT Istehsalat Kommersiya LLC, Sun Food LLC, Global Trade Group LLC, Fruit Store LLC, Baku Steel Company, Agrovest LLC and “Fruit City Group” LLC. The list of state-owned companies participating in export operations in the non-oil sector is headed by the Marketing and Economic Operations Department of the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan. The following companies are represented in this list: Azergold CJSC, Azeraluminium LLC, Azerenergy ATSC, Azerpambig Agrarian Industrial Complex LLC, Azerbaijan Airlines CJSC, Azertutun Agrarian Industrial Complex LLC, Azerbaijan Heat Power
164 Romanian Statistical Review Supplement nr. 12 / 2020 Station ”LLC, Nakhchivan AR State Energy Service and“ Caspian Drilling Company Limited ”LLC. The “Export Review” also includes services for services. In January October 2020, Azercosmos exported $ 37.8 million worth of services (satellite telecommunications services and optical satellite services) to 30 countries. Azercosmos’s revenue from service exports accounted for 90 percent of its total revenue. In October 2020, Azercosmos exported services worth $ 6.9 million to 21 countries. The main countries where Azercosmos exports services in January-October 2020 are France, the United States, the United Kingdom, Malaysia and the UAE. According to the Export Review, the situation with the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has not passed unnoticed in the tourism sector of Azerbaijan, as in other countries. According to the State Border Service, in January-October 2020, 720,300 foreigners and stateless persons arrived in Azerbaijan from 155 countries, or 3.7 times less than in the same period last year. The introduction of temporary restrictions to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection has led to a sharp decline in the number of visitors to our country in April-October this year, and the visits were mainly for non-tourism purposes. Conclusion Tourism - both international and domestic - was among the industries most aff ected by the spread of the new coronavirus infection. At the same time, the factors constraining its development, associated both with sanitary procedures and with crisis behavioral and economic eff ects, will aff ect the industry for at least 3 5 years. During this period, depending on the eff ectiveness of measures to support the travel industry and the hospitality industry, either its large scale curtailment will occur, or its preservation and development due to import substitution and state support [9]. The latter will require the cultivation and support of both the premium tourist segment and infrastructure for regional and local economy travel. Promising areas of activity can be: expanding the functionality of existing tourist routes (for example, growing “services on the water” in the framework of cultural and educational travel); revival of historical sites and tourism in the footsteps of local cultural values; formation of new large cultural and tourist routes; development of industrial and agritourism, cruises, creation of a format for the work of tourist national parks. The development of domestic and inbound tourism in the current conditions requires the extension of the crisis package of measures addressed to the aff ected industries (reduction of the tax burden, postponements, credit holidays), at least until 2021, state support for small tourism projects (for small and medium sized businesses, impact investment and social design), subsidizing tourism development programs.
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