COVID-19 Dashboard Report Date: 16/09/2020 Introduction Skills Alignment

9/16/2020 Landing Page Page 1 COVID-19 Dashboard Report date: 16/09/2020 Introduction Skills Alignment

Introduction Data considerations

This dashboard has been created to track labour market indicators in Please refer to the indicator list on page 2 for more information on the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The report is structured around the content of this report. impact on businesses, people and the wider economy. We know there is a lag in reporting of traditional economic and labour market indicators. Burning Glass Technologies - tipsheet available here Therefore, in this dashboard we use both real-time and traditional indicators Burning Glass provides real time data on the number of new online job postings based on quality and timeliness. in the labour market. This data provides insight into employer recruitment patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. As there is a seasonal aspect to the UK Over the coming weeks and months, the volume of economic and labour labour market, we have provided both long term (same point last year) and short market data that captures 2020 (and beyond) is likely to increase. This will term comparisons (month to month). enable us to have more robust evidence on the economic and labour market impact of COVID-19.This will also be influenced by other factors such as Survey data decisions on duration of physical distancing. Business surveys have been conducted to help understand the impact of COVID- 19 (for example, the Office of National Statistics Business Impacts of Coronavirus survey). At present, these surveys provide information at a UK level, we will COVID-19 cases continue to review this information and include Scotland level data where available. The COVID-19 cases in Scotland can be viewed on this dashboard from Public Health Scotland. The dashboard provides data for Scotland as well Traditional Labour Market Indicators as breakdowns by NHS Board and Local Authority. As mentioned, there is a known delay in typical labour market and economic indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, GDP estimates). Therefore, we may not see The global spread of COVID-19 and infection rates can be viewed on this immediate change in these indicators as a result of the global pandemic. These interactive live map from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering indicators are provided in this report as a baseline and over time, we expect to (John Hopkins University). see trends emerge.

1/1 9/16/2020 Indicator list Page 2 COVID-19 Dashboard Indicator list Skills Alignment

Section Indicator Source Latest update Next update Page Status number  Businesses Small Business Index Federation of Small Businesses 27/07/2020 tbc 3 updated COVID Business Support Fund Grant Scottish Government 16/07/2020 n/a 4 Monthly Business Turnover Index Scottish Government 04/09/2020 02/10/2020 5 updated Business Impact of COVID-19 Survey (BICS) Office for National Statistics (ONS) 10/09/2020 24/09/2020 6-7 updated Job postings (monthly) Burning Glass Technologies 03/09/2020 01/10/2020 8-12 updated Job postings (weekly) Burning Glass Technologies 14/09/2020 12/10/2020 9 updated People Furloughed Jobs HM Revenue and Customs 21/08/2020 18/09/2020 13 Unemployment rate (16-24 and 16+) Labour Force Survey (LFS) 15/09/2020 13/10/2020 14 updated Unemployment rate by region (16+) Annual Population Survey 16/07/2020 13/10/2020 14 People on Universal credit Department for Work and Pensions 15/09/2020 13/10/2020 15 updated Claims to Universal credit Department for Work and Pensions 11/08/2020 10/11/2020 15 updated Households on Universal credit Department for Work and Pensions 11/08/2020 10/11/2020 15 updated Claimant Count Office for National Statistics (ONS) 15/09/2020 13/10/2020 16 updated Wider economy Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Scottish Goverment 19/08/2020 23/09/2020 17 updated Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Office for National Statistics (ONS) 16/09/2020 tbc 18 updated Purchasing Managers' index Royal Bank of Scotland 13/09/2020 October 2020 19-20 updated

1/1 9/16/2020 Small Business Index Page 3 COVID-19 Dashboard Small Business Index: Scotland Q2 2020 Federation of Small Businesses Small Business Index: Scotland Graphs taken from report: Click here Skills Alignment

Small Business Confidence Net balance of firms reporting employment growth Small businesses in Scotland reported an In Q2 2020, Scottish businesses were more increase in confidence in the second quarter resilient in terms of employment than of 2020. anticipated. Headcount in Q2 was expected to decrease in 29.7% of Scottish In Q2 2020, the Small Business Confidence businesses. However, only 23.1% of barometer recorded an increase of 144.7 businesses reported a reduction in their points reaching -10.1. This is a significant workforce over the quarter. recovery from a record low -154.8. In Q3 2020, an estimated 17.4% of Scottish businesses may reduce staff numbers.

Net balance of small firms in Scotland reporting revenue/profit growth Share of firms reporting factors as main cause of change in business cost The Q2 2020 Scottish Business Small business revenue in Scotland fell by Index highlighted almost half record levels in Q2 2020 due to the (46.6%) of Scottish firms reported a impact of lockdown restrictions on decrease in operating costs over demand. the quarter. The majority of businesses (81.8%) Most businesses in Scotland reported a decline in gross profit levels in operated below capacity in Q2 Q2 2020. 2020 (86.6%). Estimates suggest Scottish firms may continue to Estimates suggest a further fall in operate below capacity in Q3 2020. profitability is expected in Q3 2020.

1/1 9/16/2020 Business Grant by LA Page 4 COVID-19 Dashboard COVID Business Support Fund Grant Skills Alignment

COVID Business Support Fund Grants - up to 14th July COVID Business Support Fund Grant Scottish Government Statistics The Small Business Grant and Retail, Hospitality and Leisure Grant schemes closed to new applications on 10th Released on 16th of July 2020 July 2020. Therefore, the final update of this data was on 16th July. Click here

The Small Business and the Retail, Hospitality and Leisure Business Grant Schemes have received 105,585 applications across Scotland. Of these applications, 86,505 grants valuing £970m have been awarded. Number of Applications Received and Grants Awarded up to 14th July 2020 Total value of Grants Awarded up to 14th July 2020 Total number of applications received Total number of grants awarded

16,664 Highlands and Islands (ROA) £150,580,200 Highlands and Islands (ROA) 14,172 14,859 Glasgow (ROA) £131,933,800 Glasgow (ROA) 11,346 12,413 Edinburgh and Lothians (ROA) £130,005,000 Edinburgh and Lothians (ROA) 10,630 10,568 Lanarkshire (ROA) £93,316,200 Lanarkshire (ROA) 8,475 9,659 Tayside (ROA) £82,145,000 Tayside (ROA) 7,482 8,446 South of Scotland £72,972,900 South of Scotland 6,942 7,204 Aberdeen City and Shire (ROA) Ayrshire (ROA) 5,981 £69,705,000 7,125 Aberdeen City and Shire (ROA) 6,027 Ayrshire (ROA) £65,403,800 6,887 West (ROA) 5,342 West (ROA) £60,128,800 6,043 Forth Valley (ROA) 4,816 Fife (ROA) £54,523,800 5,249 Fife (ROA) 4,879 Forth Valley (ROA) £54,206,200 4,820 Dumfries and Galloway (ROA) 4,067 Dumfries and Galloway (ROA) £42,212,900 Borders (ROA) 3,626 2,875 Borders (ROA) £30,760,000 West Lothian (ROA) 2,743 2,310 West Lothian (ROA) £26,162,500 1/1 9/16/2020 Business Turnover Index Page 5 Monthly Business Turnover Index: July 2020 COVID-19 Dashboard Scottish Government Statistics Business Turnover Index Click here Skills Alignment Business Turnover Index The Monthly Business Turnover Index is similar to the IHS Markit PMI In July 2020, the provisional business turnover index* was 28.6, an increase from 24.4 in June. Although the index indicators. It reports the net balance increased in July, for the majority of industries the index remained below 50, with the exception of Food Retail. of firms reporting increasing or decreasing turnover, in real terms, Accommodation and Food Services had the lowest index of 8.2 indicating that nearly all businesses sampled in compared to 12 months ago. Values this industry had lower turnover than the previous year. below 50 indicate that more companies are showing decreased * For all included sectors - does not include data for Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction, Financial Services, Real Estate, Public Services turnover than increased turnover.

Business Turnover Index by Industry (July 2020) Business Turnover Index by Industry

All Industries Manufacturing C Services G,H,I,J,M,N,R,S 50.0 Accommodation & Food Services I 8.2 65.5 59.7 Culture, Recreation & Other Services R,S 22.4 54.5 56.0 52.4 51.8 52.7 53.0 51.5 49.7 50.7 50.0 49.6 50.2 47.7 49.3 49.4 46.4 46.0 Business Services M,N 24.3 44.1 43.1 40.2 All Industries 28.5 35.1 29.0 29.1 28.5 Wholesale & Motor Trades G(45,46) 32.8 24.4 18.7 Other Retail3 G(47part) 32.8

Manufacturing C 35.1 July July July May May May June June June April April April March March March August August

Transport, Storage & Communication H,J 35.6 January January January October October February February February December December November November September September Food Retail2 G(47part) 57.4 2018 2019 2020

1/1 9/16/2020 ONS Business Impacts of COVID-19 Page 6 COVID-19 Dashboard Office for National Statistics released on 10th September (covers data related 10th August - 23rd August 2020) click here

Businesses Skills Alignment Business Impacts of COVID-19: Trading status Businesses: Risk of Insolvency At present, data by Industry is only available at the UK level. At present, data by Industry is only available at the UK level. Other Services and Mining and Quarrying have been removed for disclosure purposes, but their totals Other Services and Mining and Quarrying have been removed for disclosure purposes, but their are included in ‘All Industries’. totals are included in ‘All Industries’. Almost half of businesses operating in Scotland reported they were at Of businesses operating in Scotland, 95.5% have been trading for more low risk of insolvency and a further 30.9% reported no risk. Around than two weeks. Around 2% of businesses do not intend to start trading 1.4% of businesses reported severe risk of insolvency and a further within next two weeks and 1% has permanently ceased trading. 7.5% of businesses reported a moderate risk.

Trading status (UK level) totals may not sum to 100% due to disclosure control Risk of Insolvency (UK level) totals may not sum to 100% due to disclosure control Does not intend to restart in the next two weeks Has been trading for more than the last two weeks Businesses that have not permanently stopped trading Intends to restart in the next to weeks Started trading within the last two weeks Permanently ceased trading Severe risk Moderate risk Low risk No risk The business is insolvent Not sure Accommodation And Food Service 87% Accommodation And Food Service 20% 43% 18% 15% Administrative And Support Service 94% Administrative And Support Service Activities 12% 50% 23% 12% All Industries 95% Arts, Entertainment And Recreation 17% 43% 20% 17% Arts, Entertainment And Recreation 17% 73% Construction 53% 26% Construction 96% Education 13% 51% 28% 8% Education 95% Human Health And Social Work Activities 48% 29% 14% Human Health And Social Work Activities 97% Information And Communication 44% 36% 12% Information And Communication 93% Manufacturing 45% 37% 11% Manufacturing 99% Professional, Scientific And Technical Activities 8% 48% 34% 9% Professional, Scientific And Technical 94% Real Estate Activities 59% 28% Real Estate Activities 98% Transportation And Storage 8% 49% 33% 9% Transportation And Storage 97% Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste Management 45% 51% Water Supply and Waste 98% Wholesale And Retail Trade 50% 34% Wholesale And Retail Trade 98% 1/1 9/16/2020 ONS Financial impact Business Impacts of COVID-19 Page 7 COVID-19 Dashboard Office for National Statistics released on 10th September (covers data related 10th August - 23rd August 2020) click here

Businesses Skills Alignment Business Impacts of COVID-19: Financial impact At present, data for Industries is only available at the UK level. This data refers to businesses that continue to trade. Other Services and Mining and Quarrying have been removed for disclosure purposes, but their totals are included in ‘All Industries’.

In Scotland, almost half of businesses reported that their turnover was higher than operating costs, while 13.5% of businesses reported that operating costs were higher than turnover.

Where business continue to trade, how business's turnover compared to its operating costs (UK level): Businesses continuing to trade, totals may not sum to 100% due to disclosure control Operating costs exceeded turnover by more than 50% Accommodation And Food Service 6% 5% 10% 12% 20% 13% 8% 25% Operating costs exceeded turnover between 20% and 50% Administrative And Support Service 6% 5% 8% 14% 26% 11% 8% 21% Operating costs exceeded turnover by up to 20% All Industries 4% 3% 8% 12% 25% 14% 10% 24% Turnover was equal to operating costs Arts, Entertainment And Recreation 20% 7% 12% 9% 12% 9% 5% 25% Turnover exceeded operating costs by up to 20% Construction 3% 8% 17% 29% 12% 6% 24% Turnover exceeded operating costs between 20% and 50% Education 11% 4% 14% 15% 16% 4% 8% 28% Turnover exceeded operating costs by more than 50% Human Health And Social Work Activities 4% 7% 12% 13% 14% 12% 36% Not sure Information And Communication 3%3% 8% 11% 21% 14% 12% 29% Manufacturing 7% 9% 30% 19% 9% 22% Professional, Scientific And Technical 7% 11% 22% 14% 20% 23% Real Estate Activities 5% 9% 9% 38% 8% 8% 23% Transportation And Storage 4% 9% 5% 14% 26% 17% 8% 17% Water Supply and Waste 4% 10% 8% 29% 16% 12% 22% Wholesale And Retail Trade 5% 11% 26% 18% 11% 26%

1/1 9/16/2020 Scotland Job postings Page 8 COVID-19 Dashboard

Businesses Skills Alignment

Burning Glass Technologies Number of New Job Postings in Scotland Accessed on 3rd September 2019 2020

41,932 38,325 There were -25% fewer job 33,037 32,783 32,507 postings in August 2020 37,566 30,354 27,471 compared to 2019. 30,604 23,996 24,518 27,031 26,501 14,831 12,423 17,031 January February March April May June July August

Number of new Temporary and Permanent Job Postings for 2019 and 2020 Permanent job postings increased by Permanent Temporary 86% in August 2020 compared to April 18% 19% 18% 20% 17% 19% 17% 19% 20% 20% 20% 19% 19% 18% 23% 20% 2020.

Temporary job 82% 81% 82% 83% 81% 83% 81% 81% 81% 82% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 77% postings increased by 159% in August 2020 compared to April January January February February March March April April May May June June July July August August 2020. 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 1/1 9/16/2020 Weekly job positings - Scotland Page 9 COVID-19 Dashboard

Businesses Skills Alignment

Weekly Job Postings in Scotland Burning Glass Technologies Accessed on 14th September

There were 14% more job postings in New postings increased by 69% Week 37 2020 (second week of September) between Week 14 (beginning of April) compared to 2019. and Week 37 2020.

2019 2020 Week 1 refers to the first Saturday in January (e.g. 4th January 2020).

13,385

11,653 10,454 9,659 10,643 8,642 9,590 8,157 8,034 8,086 7,977 8,985 7,821 7,810 7,300 7,159 7,091 7,111 6,725 6,593 6,651 6,868 6,242 6,249 6,055 5,955 5,960 5,627 5,790 5,525 5,719 5,612 6,825 5,219 5,996 6,084 5,316 4,849 4,475 4,625 4,349 4,038 3,713 3,974 3,723 3,404 2,641 2,908 2,589 2,825

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1/1 9/16/2020 Regions Page 10

COVID-19 Dashboard Burning Glass Technologies Businesses Accessed on 3rd September Skills Alignment

Job Postings: percentage change by region Job Postings: percentage change by region

Longer term change between August 2019 and August 2020 Short term change between July 2020 and August 2020

Dumfries and Galloway (ROA) 8% Dumfries and Galloway (ROA) 20% South of Scotland 8% South of Scotland 17% Borders (ROA) 7% Highlands and Islands (ROA) 15% West (ROA) 6% Ayrshire (ROA) 14% Ayrshire (ROA) 5% Borders (ROA) 13% Forth Valley (ROA) 2% Fife (ROA) Lanarkshire (ROA) -4% 12% Lanarkshire (ROA) Highlands and Islands (ROA) -9% 9%

Fife (ROA) -13% West (ROA) 8%

West Lothian (ROA) -24% Edinburgh and Lothians (ROA) 2% Scotland -25% Aberdeen City and Shire (ROA) -2% Tayside (ROA) -28% West Lothian (ROA) -2% Glasgow (ROA) -31% Tayside (ROA) -3% Edinburgh and Lothians (ROA) -32% Forth Valley (ROA) -10% Aberdeen City and Shire (ROA) -56% Glasgow (ROA) -10% 1/1 9/16/2020 Occupations Page 11 COVID-19 Dashboard Burning Glass Technologies Accessed on 3rd September

Businesses Skills Alignment

Job Postings: percentage change by occupation Job Postings: percentage change by occupation

Longer term change between August 2019 and August 2020 Short term change between July 2020 and August 2020

Sales and Customer Service Occupations Professional Occupations -3% 8%

Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations -12% Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 7%

Managers, Directors and Senior Officials -21% Professional Occupations 5%

Associate Professional and Technical Occupations -29% Skilled Trades Occupations 5%

Skilled Trades Occupations -33% Managers, Directors and Senior Officials 2%

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives -34% Associate Professional and Technical Occupa… -0%

Elementary Occupations -35% Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations -3%

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations -42% Process, Plant and Machine Operatives -4%

Sales and Customer Service Occupations -49% Elementary Occupations -7%

1/1 9/16/2020 Detailed Occupations Page 12

COVID-19 Dashboard Burning Glass Technologies Businesses Accessed on 3rd September Skills Alignment

Job Postings: percentage change by occupation (3 digit SOC) Job Postings: percentage change by occupation (3 digit SOC)

Longer term change between August 2019 and August 2020 Short term change between July 2020 and August 2020

Please note at this level of the detail, absolute numbers can be low in turn creating a Please note at this level of the detail, absolute numbers can below in turn creating a large percentage change (occupations with fewer than 15 job postings excluded) large percentage change (occupations with fewer than 15 job postings excluded)

Top 6 Occupations Top 6 Occupations

244 Welfare Professionals 123% 823 Other Drivers and Transport Operatives 179% 612 Childcare and Related Personal Services 113% 231 Teaching and Educational Professionals 66% 533 Construction and Building Trades Supervisors 74% 331 Protective Service Occupations 66% 231 Teaching and Educational Professionals 45% 122 Managers and Proprietors in Hospitality and Le… 47% 222 Therapy Professionals 35% 924 Elementary Security Occupations 45% 223 Nursing and Midwifery Professionals 31% 533 Construction and Building Trades Supervisors 43%

Bottom 6 Occupations Bottom 6 Occupations 119 Managers and Directors in Retail and Wholesale -63% 247 Media Professionals -36% 927 Other Elementary Services Occupations -69% 911 Elementary Agricultural Occupations -40% 351 Transport Associate Professionals -71% 542 Printing Trades -41% 542 Printing Trades -72% 622 Hairdressers and Related Services -42% 811 Process Operatives -75% 621 Leisure and Travel Services -45% 621 Leisure and Travel Services -81% 811 Process Operatives -62% 1/1 9/16/2020 Furlough Page 13 Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme Statistics COVID-19 Dashboard HM Revenue and Customs click here Businesses Skills Alignment Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme - Scotland

779,500 jobs in Scotland were furloughed up to 31st July 2020. The number of jobs furloughed increased by 43,000 compared to previous month.

Furloughed jobs as a percentage of eligible workforce by region Furloughed jobs as a percentage of eligible workforce by sector Geographic breakdowns are based on an employee’s last known address to HMRC. This graph excludes 4,300 jobs that have not been match to a sector. Glasgow (ROA) 32.7% Accommodation & food services 77% Construction 73% Highlands and Islands (ROA) 32.6% Arts, entertainment, recreation and other servi… 72% Tayside (ROA) 32.4% Trade union, religious, political and repair 57% Ayrshire (ROA) 32.4% Wholesale and retail; repair of motor vehicles 44% Manufacturing 41% Lanarkshire (ROA) 32.0% Property 39% Forth Valley (ROA) 31.9% Transport & storage (inc postal) 36% Scotland 31.5% Business administration and support services 34% Professional, scientific & technical 32% West Lothian (ROA) 31.2% Mining, quarrying & utilities 26% West (ROA) 30.8% Waste and Recycling 25% Borders (ROA) 30.5% Agriculture, forestry & fishing 17% Information & communication 17% Aberdeen City and Shire (ROA) 30.4% Energy Production 12% Edinburgh and Lothians (ROA) 30.3% Domestic employers 9% South of Scotland 30.0% Health 9% Education 7% Dumfries and Galloway (ROA) 29.6% Finance & insurance 5% Fife (ROA) 29.5% Public administration & defence 1%

1/1 9/16/2020 Unemployment Page 14 COVID-19 Dashboard

People Skills Alignment

Unemployment rate for Scotland Labour Force Survey Unemployment rate by region Annual Population Survey May 2020 - July 2020 April 2019 - March 2020 and the UK Updated monthly (16+, Scotland) Updated quarterly

Unemployment rate for 16+ Unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds is not included due to small sample sizes in some regions.

Scotland UK Fife (ROA) 4.9% Ayrshire (ROA) 4.7% 8.8% 7.9% 7.8% 8.0% West (ROA) 4.0% 4.6% 4.2% 3.9% Forth Valley (ROA) 3.9%

4.1% Glasgow (ROA) 3.6% Tayside (ROA) 3.6% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Scotland 3.3% Borders (ROA) 3.0% Unemployment rate for 16-24 Lanarkshire (ROA) 2.9% Scotland UK West Lothian (ROA) 2.5% 24.5% Edinburgh and Lothians (ROA) 2.4% 22.2% 14.5% 13.3% South of Scotland (ROA) 2.4% 15.4% 9.5% 14.1% Aberdeen City and Shire (ROA) 11.9% 2.3% Highlands and Islands (ROA) 2.3% * Data should be treated with caution Dumfries and Galloway (ROA)* 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1.9% due to small sample size.

1/1 9/16/2020 Universal Credit Page 15 COVID-19 Dashboard

People Skills Alignment

Universal Credit in Scotland People on Universal Credit People on Universal Credit in Scotland DWP accessed via DWP Stat Xplore In Scotland, there were 79% more people on Universal Credit in People on Universal Credit: percentage change by region August compared to March 2020. 2020 Short term change between and March 2020 and August 2020

456,564 466,417 473,973 Edinburgh and Lothians (ROA) 373,526 439,424 113% 243,641 256,083 264,117 Aberdeen City and Shire (ROA) 105% January February March April May June July August Glasgow (ROA) 88% Claims made to Universal Credit in Scotland Highlands and Islands (ROA) 85% 44,991 Borders (ROA) 80% West Lothian (ROA) 80% 23,834 Scotland 79% 15,912 13,518 11,098 West (ROA) 76% 7,908 5,992 5,502 4,788 4,102 4,151 4,118 5,001 4,624 2,272 Lanarkshire (ROA) 75% 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 South of Scotland 72% January February March April May June July Tayside (ROA) 70% Households on Universal Credit in Scotland Forth Valley (ROA) 67% Dumfries and Galloway (ROA) 66% 220,248 230,493 240,706 363,627 326,686 Fife (ROA) 63% 216,010 Ayrshire (ROA) 59% December 2019 (r) January 2020 (r) February 2020 (r) March 2020 (p) April 2020 (p) May 2020 (p) 1/1 9/16/2020 Claimant COunt Page 16 COVID-19 Dashboard

People Skills Alignment

Claimant count Claimant Count Office for National Statistics This experimental series counts the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance plus those who claim Universal Credit and are required to seek work and be available for work. accessed via Nomis

In Scotland, there were 103% more claimants in Claimant count: percentage change by region August compared to March 2020. (not seasonally adjusted) Short term change between March 2020 and August 2020 Claimant count for Scotland (seasonally adjusted) Edinburgh and Lothians (ROA) 148% 2019 2020 Aberdeen City and Shire (ROA) 125% 187,151 215,798 213,212 221,114 Highlands and Islands (ROA) 116% 113,548 112,307 111,440 West Lothian (ROA) 106% 109,831 100,440 102,653 104,254 105,200 106,185 108,167 Borders (ROA) 104%

January February March April May June July Lanarkshire (ROA) 100% Glasgow (ROA) 96% Claimant count rate for Scotland (workforce based rates) Tayside (ROA) 96% 2019 2020 Forth Valley (ROA) 91% South of Scotland 86% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.7% 7.7% 7.6% 7.9% West (ROA) 84% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% Fife (ROA) 82% January February March April May June July Dumfries and Galloway (ROA) 75% Workplace-based proportions express the number of claimants in an area as a percentage of workforce jobs Ayrshire (ROA) plus claimants. 72% 1/1 9/16/2020 Wider Economic 1 Monthly Gross Domestic Product Page 17 COVID-19 Dashboard Scottish Government click here

Wider Economy Skills Alignment

Monthly Gross Domestic Product Scotland's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) monthly Scotland's provisional monthly gross domestic product (GDP) increased by percentage change (June 2020) 5.7% in real terms during June, after falling by 19.2% in April. In the UK, GDP Comparison between latest month and previous month increased by 8.7% in the same month. Accommodation & food services 38.4% Despite the increase in GDP during June, output remains 17.6% below the levels Construction 36.3% Arts, Culture & Recreation 30.4% seen in February 2020, prior the lockdown. Households as Employers of Domestic Pe… 16.2% Wholesale, Retail & Motor Trades 15.4% Scotland's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) monthly percentage change Mining and Quarrying Industries 15.3% Comparison between latest month and previous month Administrative & Support Services 6.9% Manufacturing 6.5% 5.7% Other Services 5.7% 2.3% Total Gross Domestic Product 5.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% Production Sector 5.5% Transport & Storage 5.2% -0.1% -0.5% -0.1% -1.0% -0.3% Agriculture, forestry and fishing 4.8% Professional, Scientific& Technical Services 4.4% -5.8% Service Sector 4.3% Water Supply & Waste Management 3.1% Health and Social Work 2.3% Information & Communication 2.2% Financial & Insurance Activities 0.4% Education 0.3% -19.2% Public Administration and Defence 0.0% Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Real Estate Activities 2019 2020 0.0% Electricity & Gas Supply -0.8% 1/1 9/16/2020 Wider Economic 2 Page 18 COVID-19 Dashboard

Wider Economy Skills Alignment

Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Scottish Government click here Scotland's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by -19.4% in real terms during the second quarter of 2020, while for the UK overall, Scotland's GDP percentage change by sector (Q2 2020) GDP decreased by -20.4% over the same period. Comparison between latest quarter and previous quarter

Compared to the same quarter last year GDP fell by 21.1%.

A:Agriculture, forestry and fishing -5.8% Scotland's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Quarterly percentage B:Mining and Quarrying Industries -28.9% change Comparison between latest quarter and previous quarter C:Manufacturing -15.5%

0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% D:Electricity & Gas Supply -11.3% -0.1% -0.3% E: Water Supply & Waste Management -10.4% -2.5% F:Construction -41.5%

G,I:Distribution, Hotels and Catering -33.9%

H,J:Transport, Storage and Communication -17.3% -19.4% K-N:Business Services and Finance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 -7.6% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 O-T:Government, and Other Services -24.4%

1/1 9/16/2020 Wider Economic 3 Page 19 COVID-19 Dashboard

Purchasing Managers' Index Skills Alignment

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) PMI By IHS Markit The PMI Business Activity Index is the first fact-based indicator of regional economic health published each month, tracking the monthly change in Accessed on 14th September the output of goods and services across the private sector. Any figure below 50 signals contraction and the speed of decline is signalled by how here far below 50 the value is. For example, an output value of 10 signifies decline at a faster pace than an output value of 45. It is a useful tool for understanding current and expected business conditions. Graph taken from PMI by IHS Markit report Business Activity Index Outstanding Business Index sa, >50 = growth since previous month sa, >50 = growth since previous month

Private sector business activity in Scotland returned to growth in August with August data continued to reflect a decline in outstanding the headline PMI indicator reaching 55.8 compared to 49.3 in July. In business, which suggests there could be spare capacity in the Scotland, this signaled the fastest rate of growth in six years, however the private sector. The rate of decline was sharp in August, although rate of growth was slower than the UK overall. the slowest rate since February.

1/1 9/16/2020 Wider Economic 4 Page 20 COVID-19 Dashboard

Purchasing Managers' Index Skills Alignment

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) MI By IHS Markit The PMI Business Activity Index is the first fact-based indicator of regional economic health published each month, tracking the monthly change in Accessed on 14th September the output of goods and services across the private sector. Any figure below 50 signals contraction and the speed of decline is signalled by how far here below 50 the value is. For example, an output value of 10 signifies decline at a faster pace than an output value of 45. It is a useful tool for understanding current and expected business conditions. Graph taken from PMI by IHS Markit report Future Activity Index Employment Index sa, >50 = growth since previous month sa, >50 = growth since previous month

The Future Output Index remained above 50 for the fourth month in a August data shows private sector firms in Scotland continued to row. This reflects an increase in private sector confidence in business reduce staff levels for the seventh month. The rate of decline was sharp activity over the next year as lockdown is eased and demand is but at the slowest rate since February. increased. Business expectation of future activity remained subdued The rate of decrease in August was slower than for the UK overall and compared to the UK overall. across all UK regions.

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