Operational fish population assessment Population processes model Reproduction Survival

Growth & maturation

Little immigration*

Fishing mortality F (No measurement error) Natural mortality M*

Little emigration* *Assume stationarity no strong trends Operational fish population assessment Observation model FI Survey* Size, age, Reproduction* reproductive condition ?

Catch=Fishing mortality F (No measurement error) Natural mortality ? M * *Assume stationarity in Ocean dynamics & its impacts Operational fish population assessment Which assumptions are valid?

Population process model Immigration + emigration minimal Natural mortality is constant

Observation model Fishery catch measured without error No strong trends in population availability & gear efficiency in surveys Motions of the ocean Thermo- haline Wind circulation driven 1000 km Tides Oceaniccirculation Internal Fronts Mixed layer 100 km Tides Eddies depth meanders 10 km Upwelling estuary Internaldownwelling plumes 1 km waves Trapped 100 m waves

surface

Log(horizontal length) Log(horizontal 10 m Langmuir waves cells m

Turbulence cm Diffusion

-1 sec min hour day month yr 0.3 cm sec Log(Time) Ocean features driving fish dynamics Thermo- haline Temperature Wind circulation driven 1000 km Tides Oceaniccirculation SalinityInternal Fronts Mixed layer 100 km Tides Eddies depthmeanders 10 km Oxygen Upwelling estuary Internaldownwelling plumes 1 km waves Trapped Reefs 100 m waves Predators Macro- surface Bedforms Log(horizontal length) Log(horizontal 10 m Langmuir algae Prey waves cells m Sediment structure Turbulence cm Diffusion

-1 sec min hour day month yr 0.3 cm sec Log(Time) Ocean features driving fish dynamics Thermo- haline Temperature Wind circulation driven 1000 km Tides Oceaniccirculation SalinityInternal Fronts FI Mixed layer 100 km Tides Eddies Survey depthmeanders s 10 km Oxygen Upwelling estuary Internaldownwelling plumes 1 km waves Trapped Reefs 100 m waves Predators Macro- surface Bedforms Log(horizontal length) Log(horizontal 10 m Langmuir algae Prey waves cells m Sediment structure Turbulence cm Diffusion

-1 sec min hour day month yr 0.3 cm sec Log(Time) How can we know which assumptions are valid & sample relevant time-space scales? Embed continuous collaborative research within fisheries active in ecosystem Effective ecosystem based fisheries O Elton Sette science requires a changes in organizational structure & behavior: “Learning to eat soup with a knife”

Johan Hjort Fine scales: Field investigations with individual Wind industry collaborators Northward co-develop empirical understanding of seascape dynamics, catch & bycatch Southward

Measured hydrography

Time Salinity

Temperature Modeled hydrography

Glider profile Nested hierarchy of collaborative investigation Thermo- haline Wind circulation driven 1000 km Tides Oceaniccirculation Internal Fronts FI Mixed layer 100 km Tides Eddies Survey depthmeanders s 10 km Upwelling estuary Internaldownwelling plumes 1 km Individual waves Trapped Reefs 100 m SF partnerswaves Macro- surface Bedforms Log(horizontal length) Log(horizontal 10 m Langmuir algae waves cells m Sediment structure Turbulence cm Diffusion

sec min hour day month yr 0.3 cm sec Log(Time) Medium-scales: Study Fleets & collaborative development of models Vessels with environmental sensors & tow by tow catch reporting Flavors of response models

Catch per hour by partner (Tow by tow reporting & sensors)

Unique mental model of partner

Fisheries Independent surveys Crowd-source models & perform blind & transparent evaluations with fleets & study fleets Dec 21, 2015 Jan 15, 2016 Feb 7, 2016

Location of efforts

Winter storms produce cold water corridors for mackerel migration Nested hierarchy of collaborative investigation Thermo- haline Wind circulation driven 1000 km Tides Oceaniccirculation Internal Fronts FI Mixed layer 100 km Tides StudyEddies Survey depthmeanders s 10 km UpwellingFleets estuary Internaldownwelling plumes 1 km Individual waves Trapped Reefs 100 m SF partnerswaves Macro- surface Bedforms Log(horizontal length) Log(horizontal 10 m Langmuir algae waves cells m Sediment structure Turbulence cm Diffusion

sec min hour day month yr 0.3 cm sec Log(Time) Broadest scale Monitor dynamics of whole fleet & seascape in real time (2015 - 2019) Fishing effort, availability & landings = f (seascape dynamics * population dynamics * global economics & economic alternatives * management regulations)

Landings IOOS ocean data & models Dealer reports http://tds.marine.rutgers.edu/thredds/dodsC/roms Nested hierarchy of collaborative investigation Continuous monitoring & field research Thermo- haline with some limits imposed by industry circulation opportunity costs & regulations Wind Whole driven 1000 km Tides FleetsOceaniccirculation Internal Fronts FI Mixed layer 100 km Tides StudyEddies Survey depthmeanders s 10 km UpwellingFleets estuary Internaldownwelling plumes 1 km Individual waves Trapped Reefs 100 m SF partnerswaves Macro- surface Bedforms Log(horizontal length) Log(horizontal 10 m Langmuir algae waves cells m Sediment structure Turbulence cm Diffusion

sec min hour day month yr 0.3 cm sec Log(Time) What’s going in the fishery & ecosystem? (ecological, economic & socio-political dimensions) How is the ecological/social/economic context changing? “Horrendogram” for Atlantic Mackerel socio-ecological fishery system

Ecological Forcing

Aggregation, Population size, distribution, age, condition migration Fishing effort & catch Predators Competitors

Ocean habitat dynamics Climate dynamics “Horrendogram” for Atlantic Mackerel socio-ecological fishery system

Ecological Economic Forcing Forcing Processing Aggregation, Population size, capacity Fleet capacity distribution, age, condition migration Domestic Fishing effort Demand Price & catch Predators Competitors & supply International Price & Ocean habitat Other demand & Availability dynamics costs Climate dynamics supply of alternatives “Horrendogram” for Atlantic Mackerel socio-ecological fishery system

Social & Scientific Politics & Cultural Forcing understanding cultural bias & accuracy

Other Stock Management applied Assessments science

Quotas, permits Time/area FI surveys & incentives/dis- closures of target incentives & other stocks Ecological Economic Forcing Forcing Processing Aggregation, Population size, capacity Fleet capacity distribution, age, condition migration Domestic Fishing effort Demand Price & catch Predators Competitors & supply International Price & Ocean habitat Other demand & Availability dynamics costs Climate dynamics supply of alternatives Does embedding of collaborative seascape ecology in active fisheries work? • 2014 stock assessment of Atlantic butterfish – Stock status changed from unknown to known • Fishery re-established. 2015 quota = 22,530mt

• 2017 stock assessment of Atlantic mackerel – Stock status changed from unknown to known. Overfished & overfishing occurring. Despite status determination industry collaborators have expressed desire to start collaboration on another difficult stock Using Fishermen’s Ecological Knowledge to Assess impacts of changes in flatfish availability to assessments surveys in the Gulf of Maine

Tyler Pavlowich1, David Richardson1, Greg DeCelles2, John Manderson1, Mary Hudson4, 1NOAA/NEFSC, 2MA-DMF, 3IS, 4MCFA Project Goals Collaborate with fisherman to:

Understand changes in flatfish availability to surveys & how they may have affected stock assessments

Develop tools accounting for changes in availability resulting from ocean climate change & other factors using analyses of existing data & field experiment

Develop results for consideration in upcoming stock assessments The most important resource required?

Mutual Trust