Innovative Research Group, Inc. www.innovativeresearch.ca Toronto :: Vancouver
Public Opinion Research Ontario This Month
Provincial Political Landscape Field Dates: June 13th to June 27th, 2017 Sample Size: n=600; MoE ±4.0%
June 2017 © 2017 Copyright Innovative Research Group Inc. 2 Methodology
• This survey was conducted by telephone among 600 randomly-selected Ontario residents, 18 years of age and older, from June 13th to June 27th, 2017.
• Only one respondent per household was eligible to complete this survey. The final sample includes both landline and cell phone respondents, so that individuals who don’t have a landline are represented.
• The sample has been weighted by age, gender and region using the latest available data, 2011 Census, to reflect actual demographic composition of the population. December 2016 data is weighted by age, gender and region.
• This survey is compared with previous studies since April 2000. Prior to April 2003, approximately 650 Ontario adults were randomly selected. Since April 2003, approximately 600 adults are surveyed.
• The margin of error is approximately +4.0 (before April 2003: approximately +3.84)
• Prior to February 2003, the data is weighted according to the 1996 Census.
• In the analysis, net impression or satisfaction refers to the two “positive” measures (i.e. “very favourable” and “somewhat unfavourable”) minus the two “negative” measures (“very unfavourable” or “somewhat unfavourable”) to create a single number. Neutral and don’t know responses are not included in the calculation.
Note: Graphs and tables may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. Sums are added before rounding numbers. 3
Provincial Vote and Party ID Provincial Vote: PCs (30%) slightly ahead of Liberals (27%), 4 essentially tied for 1st; NDP (15%) 12 points behind Liberals Q If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for: the Progressive Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, the New Democratic Party, the Green Party or another party? … In that case, which party’s candidate do you lean toward slightly? [Vote + Lean] [asked of all respondents; n=600]
30% 27%
15% 12% 9% 4% 1%
PC Liberal NDP Green Other None/would Undecided not vote
Note: ‘Refused’ (3%) not shown. (Current data: June 2017) Provincial Vote Tracking: PCs (30%) lead over Liberals (27%) 5 narrows marginally
Q If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for: the Progressive Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, the New Democratic Party, the Green Party or another party? … In that case, which party’s candidate do you lean toward slightly? [Vote + Lean] [asked of all respondents; n=600] March 2, ’17: ‘Fair Hydro Plan’ Announced April 20, ’17: ‘Fair Housing Plan’ Announced
30% 27%
15% 12%
4%
1%
Apr-16
Jan '13 Jan
Dec-15
Aug-15
Apr'00 Apr'01 Apr'02 Apr'03 Apr'04 Apr'05 Apr'06 Apr'07 Apr'08 Apr'09 Apr'10 Apr'15 Apr'17
Dec '00 Dec '01 Dec '02 Dec '03 Dec '04 Dec '05 Dec '06 Dec '07 Dec '08 Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '14 Dec '16 Dec
Aug '00 Aug '01 Aug '02 Aug '03 Aug '04 Aug '05 Aug '06 Aug '07 Aug '08 Aug '09 Aug '10 Aug '16 Aug
May '11 May '14 May
Sept '11 Sept
March '12 March
August '12 August '13 August
PC Liberal NDP Green Other Undecided
(Current data: June 2017) Note: ‘Refused/Would not vote’ not shown Provincial Party ID: Liberals retain significant lead in party 6 loyalty Q Thinking about politics in Ontario, generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a….[PARTY ID] [asked of all respondents, n=600]
34%
27%
14% 12% 8% 5%
PC Liberal NDP Green/Other None/Independent Don't know
(Current data: June 2017) Combined Vote by Party ID: PC (85%) partisans more 7 loyal than Liberal (61%) and NDP (67%) partisans
Provincial Party Identification
Progressive Liberal NDP Green/Other * Unaligned Conservative
Progressive 85% 9% 8% 2% 17% Conservative
Provincial Combined Liberal 5% 61% 15% 11% 10% Vote
NDP 4% 9% 67% 9% 7%
Green/Other 0% 3% 2% 40% 5%
Undecided/WNV 6% 16% 8% 16% 54%
(Current data: June 2017) * Due to small n-size, the results should be treated with caution. (Current data: June 2017) data: June (Current
Jun-99 lead oversteady LiberalsNDPdecided, among at (35%) 20% ProvincialVoteDecided Tracking: Q Jul '00 Nov '00 Mar '01 [only decided voters, do you leantoward slightly?[DECIDED VOTE] Liberal Party, theNew Democratic Party, Greenthe Party or anotherparty? Inthat case,which party’scandidate If a provincial electionwere heldtoday, whichpartywould you vote for: the Progressive ConservativeParty, the Juy '01 Nov '01 Mar '02 Jul '02 Nov '02 Mar '03
Jul '03 n=462] Oct 03 Election Feb '04 Jun '04 Oct '04 Feb '05 Jun '05 Oct '05 Feb '06
PC Jun '06 Oct '06 Note: Feb '07
Liberal June '07 ‘Other’ not not shown ‘Other’ Oct-07 Election Jan '08 May '08 Sep '08 NDP Jan '09 May '09 Sept '09 maintain (39%) PCs slight
Green Jan '10 May '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 June '11 Nov '11 Election April '12 Oct '12 Feb '13 Oct'13 Election Sept '14 Jan '15 May '15 Sep '15 Jan '16 May '16 Sep '16 Jan '17 May '17 20% 35% 39% 5% 8 (Current data: June 2017) data: June (Current
Jun-99 lead oversteady LiberalsNDPdecided, among at (35%) 20% ProvincialVoteDecided Tracking: Q Jul '00 Nov '00 Mar '01 do you leantoward slightly?[DECIDED VOTE] Liberal Party, theNew Democratic Party, Greenthe Party or anotherparty? Inthat case,which party’scandidate If a provincial electionwere heldtoday, whichpartywould you vote for: the Progressive ConservativeParty, the Juy '01 Nov '01 Mar '02 Jul '02 Nov '02 Mar '03 Jul '03 Oct 03 Election Feb '04 Jun '04 Oct '04 Feb '05 Jun '05 Oct '05 Feb '06
PC Jun '06 Oct '06 Note: Feb '07 [ only only decided voters, Liberal June '07 ‘Other’ not not shown ‘Other’ Oct-07 Election Jan '08 May '08 Sep '08 NDP Jan '09 May '09 PCs (39%) maintain (39%) PCs slight Sept '09 n=462]
Green Jan '10 May '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 June '11 Nov '11 Election April '12 Oct '12 Feb '13 Oct'13 Election Sept '14 Jan '15 May '15 Sep '15 Jan '16 May '16 Sep '16 Jan '17 May '17 20% 35% 39% 5% 9 10
Time for a Change 11 Time-for-a-Change Segments Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Q 1. It is time for a change in government here in Ontario. 2. The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government.
Core Liberal Hostile 19% 27%
Soft Liberal 6%
Time for Change Liberal Soft Anti- 19% Liberal 23% Uncertain 6% In additional analysis, the segments of ‘Core/Soft’ Liberal and ‘Soft Anti- Liberal’ and ‘Uncertain’ have been combined Time-for-a-Change tracking: Time for a change Liberals 12 (19%) up three points, Hostile (27%) down two Q Time for a change segmentation tracking.
23% 22% 26% 25% 27% 26% 31% 28% 29% 32% 33% 32% 31% 29% 27%
22% 22% 19% 23% 23% 25% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 19% 26% 25% 6% 26% 7% 9% 5% 5% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 8% 17% 6% 15% 18% 5% 4% 19% 16% 18% 17% 19% 21% 20% 19% 17% 16% 9% 6% 5% 17% 18% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 8% 4% 5% 6% 26% 24% 25% 20% 20% 19% 20% 18% 15% 17% 18% 15% 15% 18% 19%
Apr '16 May '16 Jun '16 Jul '16 Aug '16 Sep '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16 Jan '17 Feb '17 Mar '17 Apr '17 May '17 Jun '17 Core Liberals Soft Liberals Time-for-Change Liberals Uncertain Soft anti-Liberals Hostile
(Current data: June 2017. Surveys tracked since April 2016) Only 61% of Core/Soft and 49% of Time-for-Change Liberals 13 would vote Liberal today If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for: the Progressive Conservative Party, the Q Liberal Party, the New Democratic Party, the Green Party or another party? … In that case, which party’s candidate do you lean toward slightly? [Vote + Lean] BY Time for a Change Segments [asked of all respondents; n=600]
Time for Change Soft Anti Liberal/ Core/Soft Liberal Hostile Liberal Uncertain
PC 4% 16% 33% 62%
Liberal 61% 49% 6% 1%
NDP 8% 14% 19% 19%
Green/Other 6% 3% 7% 3%
Undecided/WNV 20% 16% 31% 12%
(Current data: June 2017) 14
Provincial Leadership Patrick Brown unknown to most; Wynne seen as least 15 favourable and Horwath as most favourable Now, I would like to read you the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news recently. For Q each one, please tell me whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a very favourable, somewhat favourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just say so. How about… [asked of all respondents, n=600] 50% Net Favourability
Patrick Brown 6% 18% 8% 7% 4% 39% 14% +13%6%
Kathleen Wynne 4% 20% 4% 16% 41% 8% 5% -34%
Andrea Horwath 9% 23% 9% 9% 5% 32% 12% +17%
Very favourable Somewhat favourable Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable Do not recognize Don't know
Note: ‘Refused’ not shown Kathleen Wynne tracking: negatives decline from high of -4216 in February ‘17 … please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a very favourable, Q somewhat favourable, neither favourable or unfavourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate. Kathleen Wynne [Dalton McGuinty]
Net Favourability
Jun '17 4% 20% 4% 16% 41% 13% -34% Feb '17 4% 19% 4% 18% 46% 8% -42% Nov '16 5% 16% 5% 16% 45% 11% -40% Apr '16 7% 19% 6% 15% 35% 17% -24% May '15 8% 25% 6% 12% 29% 19% -8% Mar '14 10% 34% 6% 16% 18% 16% +10% Aug '13 10% 26% 7% 11% 15% 29% +10% Jun '13 10% 26% 8% 9% 14% 31% +12% Kathleen Wynne Jan '13 10% 27% 9% 7% 5% 41% +25% Dalton McGuinty Dec '12 8% 25% 4% 22% 33% 7% -22% Nov '12 5% 22% 6% 25% 35% 7% -33% Sep '11 11% 31% 7% 22% 23% 6% -3% Dec '10 5% 26% 9% 24% 29% 8% -22% Aug '10 6% 20% 13% 20% 39% 2% -33% Sep '09 9% 28% 14% 20% 26% 2% -9% Mar '09 9% 28% 14% 21% 26% 3% -10% Sep '07 8% 27% 14% 20% 31% 1% -16%
Very Favourable Somewhat Favourable Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable Don't know + don't recognize Patrick Brown tracking: Brown’s net favourability and 17 awareness increase, highest since tracking … please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a very favourable, Q somewhat favourable, neither favourable or unfavourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate. Patrick Brown [Tim Hudak]
Net Favourability
Jun '17 6% 18% 8% 7% 4% 53% +13% Feb '17 6% 16% 7% 7% 6% 57% +9% Nov '16 5% 13% 7% 7% 5% 61% +6% Apr '16 4% 11% 9% 5% 4% 65% +6% Patrick Brown May '15 4% 11% 11% 5% 5% 64% +6% Tim Hudak Mar '14 4% 26% 10% 24% 21% 15% -16% Aug '13 5% 25% 10% 15% 20% 25% -5% Jun '13 10% 24% 9% 15% 16% 24% +3% Jan '13 5% 27% 11% 15% 17% 25% 0% Dec '12 6% 25% 7% 16% 17% 28% -3% Nov '12 5% 23% 10% 16% 14% 32% -2% Sep '11 6% 22% 7% 23% 14% 26% -9% Dec '10 8% 17% 7% 10% 4% 54% +11% Aug '10 6% 15% 22% 14% 21% 22% -14% Sep '09 5% 13% 24% 9% 15% 34% -6%
Very favourable Somewhat favourable Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable Don't know + don't recognize Andrea Horwath tracking: net favourability positive, highest 18 since May 2015 … please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a very favourable, Q somewhat favourable, neither favourable or unfavourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate. Andrea Horwath
Net Favourability
Jun '17 9% 23% 9% 9% 5% 44% +17% Feb '16 5% 27% 12% 13% 5% 38% +14% Nov '16 6% 27% 10% 13% 5% 38% +14% Apr '16 6% 27% 9% 12% 4% 41% +16% May '15 6% 30% 10% 11% 7% 35% +18% Mar '14 10% 36% 11% 11% 8% 24% +27% Aug '13 9% 25% 10% 14% 5% 35% +15% Jun '13 10% 31% 8% 8% 7% 35% +26% Jan '13 9% 29% 9% 10% 4% 39% +25% Dec '12 9% 34% 6% 10% 4% 36% +28% Nov '12 6% 27% 10% 8% 4% 44% +21% Sep '11 4% 33% 10% 7% 4% 41% +26% Dec '10 3% 18% 8% 7% 3% 61% +11% 6% 15% 35% 10% 8% 27% Aug '10 +3% 3% 12% 39% 8% 6% 31% Sep '09 +1% Mar '09 4% 14% 38% 8% 6% 29% +4%
Very Favourable Somewhat Favourable Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable Don't know + don't recognize Brown leads on Best Premier at 23%, Horwath (18%) in 19 2nd and Wynne trails in 3rd at 15% Q Which of the following leaders would make the best Premier of Ontario? [asked of all respondents, n=600]
Dalton McGuinty Kathleen Wynne Tim Hudak Patrick Brown
Tim Hudak/Patrick Brown McGuinty/ Wynne 25% Andrea Horwath
Other
None of the above
14% Undecided/Don't know
Dec '09 Dec '12 Jan '13 June '13 Aug '13 Mar '14 May '15 Apr '16 Nov '16 Feb '17 Jun '17
Note: ‘Refused” (4%) not shown 20
Quarterly Tracking by Region 21 Methodology
• The surveys reported on in this deck were conducted on a monthly basis by telephone among 600 randomly-selected Ontario residents, 18 years of age and older. • Only one respondent per household is eligible to complete this survey. The final sample includes both landline and cell phone respondents, so that individuals who don’t have a landline are represented. • Each sample was been weighted by age, gender and region using the latest available data, 2011 Census, to reflect actual demographic composition of the population. • Results are presented on a quarterly and regional basis. Each quarter the sample contains at least 1800 respondents in total. The margin of error for this quarterly sample is ±2.4% 19 times out of 20. On a regional basis the average N size per quarter since January 2016 is reported below:
Region Average Quarterly N-size Margin of error (19 times/20) Centre Toronto 199 ±7.1% Outer Toronto 173 ±7.6% West Metro Belt 211 ±6.9% North/East Metro Belt 206 ±7.0% Southwestern Ontario 194 ±7.2% South Central Ontario 255 ±6.3% Eastern Ontario 223 ±6.7% Central Ontario 126 ±8.9% Northern Ontario 113 ±9.4%
Note: Graphs may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. Sums are added before rounding numbers. 22 Vote Intent by Quarter: Overall
Overall
Liberal PC NDP Green Other
40% 39% 34% 31% 24% 19%
5% 6% 1% 1% 23 Vote Intent by Region: Centre Toronto
Liberal PC NDP Green Other
50% 42%
27% 24% 25% 20%
4% 6% 2% 1% 24 Vote Intent by Region: Outer Toronto
Liberal PC NDP Green Other
49% 43% 38% 28% 18% 13% 3% 6% 2% 0% 25 Vote Intent by Region: Toronto West Metro Belt
Liberal PC NDP Green Other
46% 45% 38% 30%
19% 13%
3% 3% 2% 0% 26 Vote Intent by Region: Toronto North/East Metro Belt
Liberal PC NDP Green Other
47% 43% 35% 29%
17% 19%
3% 3% 1% 1% 27 Vote Intent by Region: Southwestern Ontario
Liberal PC NDP Green Other
49% 35% 34% 23% 24% 23%
5% 6% 2% 0% 28 Vote Intent by Region: South Central Ontario
Liberal PC NDP Green Other
43%
32% 31% 30% 28% 22%
6% 7% 1% 0% 29 Vote Intent by Region: Eastern Ontario
Liberal PC NDP Green Other
39% 40% 38% 37%
16% 15%
5% 7% 1% 1% 30 Vote Intent by Region: Central Ontario
Liberal PC NDP Green Other
49% 40% 36% 26% 17% 16% 7% 8% 1% 1% 31 Vote Intent by Region: Northern Ontario
Liberal PC NDP Green Other
39% 34% 34% 33% 25% 21%
5% 8% 1% 0% Building Understanding. Personalized research to connect you and your audiences.
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