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Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2019 RYAN DRAVITZ RYAN Emerging Trends in Real Estate® United States and Canada 2019 2019_EmergTrends US_C1_4.indd 1 9/7/18 2:57 PM Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2019 A publication from: 2019_EmergTrends US_C1_4.indd 2 9/7/18 2:57 PM Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2019 Contents 1 Notice to Readers 54 Chapter 4 Property Type Outlook 55 Industrial 3 Chapter 1 New Era Demands New Thinking 59 Single- and Multifamily Overview 4 Intensifying Transformation 59 Apartments 6 Easing into the Future 64 Single-Family Homes 8 18-Hour Cities 3.0: Suburbs and Stability 67 Office 9 Amenities Gone Wild 71 Hotels 10 Pivoting toward a New Horizon 73 Retail 11 Get Smart: PI + AI 13 The Myth of “Free Delivery” 76 Chapter 5 Emerging Trends in Canadian 15 Retail Transforming to a New Equilibrium Real Estate 16 Unlock Capacity 76 Industry Trends 18 We’re All in This Together 82 Property Type Outlook 20 Expected Best Bets for 2019 87 Markets to Watch in 2019 20 Issues to Watch in 2019 91 Expected Best Bets for 2019 23 Chapter 2 Capital Markets 93 Interviewees 24 The Debt Sector 30 The Equity Sector 35 Summary 36 Chapter 3 Markets to Watch 36 2019 Market Rankings 38 South: Central West 39 South: Atlantic 40 South: Florida 41 South: Central East 42 Northeast: Mid-Atlantic 43 Northeast: New England 44 West: Mountain Region 45 West: Pacific 46 Midwest: East 47 Midwest: West Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2019 i Editorial Leadership Team Emerging Trends Chairs PwC Advisers and Contributing Researchers Mitchell M. Roschelle, PwC Aimee Sailor Dean Osmond* Matthew Berkowitz W. Edward Walter, Urban Land Institute Aki Dellaportas Deborah Babb Maxime Lessard* Authors Alex Fasken* Douglas Struckman Melissa Harrison* Alex Howieson* Dwayne MacKay* Miranda Hardy* Hugh F. Kelly Alexandra Gomez* Dylan Shuff Morgan Kraman Andrew Warren Amy E. Olson Ed Faccio Nadia King* Anita Kramer André Voshart* Emily Pillars Nadja Ibrahim* Authors, Chapter 4 Property Type Outlook Andrew Alperstein Éric St-Amour* Neil Dhar Andrew Popert* Erika Ryback Nick Ethier* David Greensfelder, Retail Annie Labbé* Ernie Hudson* Nick Way Abhishek Jain, Hotels Aristide Sawadogo Evan Cohen Nicole Stroud Melinda McLaughlin, Industrial Ashley Yanke* François Berthiaume* Nik Woodworth* John McManus, Apartments and Single-Family Homes Avery Munger Frank Magliocco* Pascale Lavoie* Paige Mueller, Office Berjit Takhar* Fred Cassano* Phil Sutton Bill Atkiels Fréderic Lepage* Qiyan Mai Contributors Bill Kropp Gary Meltzer Rachel Klein Katharine Burgess Bill MacAvoy* Gimena de Buen* Rahim Lallani* Eric Frankel Bill Staffieri Glenn Kauth* Rajen Shah* Billy Grayson Billy Ampatzis* Gloria Park Rebecca Lyons* Beth Burnham Mace Braiden Goodchild* Haley Anderson Renee Sarria Molly McCabe Brian Colantuoni Howard Ro Ricardo Ruiz Brion Sharpe Ian Gunn* Richard Fournier Senior Advisers Bud Thomas Isabelle Morgan Richard Probert* Christopher J. Potter, PwC, Canada Calen Byers Jacqueline Kinneary Rick Barnay* Miriam Gurza, PwC, Canada Carlo Bruno James Rosenthal* Rick Munn Carly Pick* Jamie Clark* Robert Sciaudone ULI Editorial and Production Staff Catherine Kurtz Jane Stewart Robert Young James A. Mulligan, Senior Editor Cathy Helmbrecht Jasen Kwong* Roberto D’Abate* David James Rose, Managing Editor/Manuscript Editor Charles Campany Jeff Bharkhda Ron Bidulka* Brandon Weil, Creative Director Chris Bailey Jeff Kiley Rosanna Musto* Anne Morgan, Cover Design Chris Dietrick Jenn Dybick Roxanne Carrier* Deanna Pineda, Muse Advertising Design, Designer Chris Nicholaou Jesse Rosenstock Ryan Dumais Craig Chapman, Senior Director of Publishing Operations Chris Vangou* Jo Sayers* Sam Melehani Owen Benge, Senior Associate, Capital Markets Christian Sedor John Bunting* Sarah Perrin* Christian Serao John Crossman Scott Kirkman Payton Chung, Director, Capital Markets Christina Howton* Jong Taek Ban Scott Tornberg Nick Anderson, Intern, Capital Markets Christine Hill Joseph H. Schechter Shannon Barnes Christine Lam* Joseph Moyer* Shareen Yew Emerging Trends in Real Estate® is a trademark of PwC and is regis- Christopher Mill Josh Parks Spyros Stathonikos* tered in the United States and other countries. All rights reserved. Corey Thomas Joshua Kong Steve Baker Courtney McNeil Juhi Patel Steve Tyler At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. PwC is a network of firms in 158 countries with more than Courtney Sargent Justin Hafen Steven Weisenburger 236,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, Cydney Aiken Kelly Nobis Susan Smith advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you Dan Genter Ken Griffin* Theresa Thompson by visiting us at www.pwc.com. Dan Ryan Kevin Koons Thomas Kozak Daniel D’Archivio* Kristen Conner Tim Bodner © 2018 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the U.S. member firm or one of its subsidiaries or affiliates, and may sometimes refer to the Danielle Desjardins* Kristy Romo Tim Conlon PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see Danielle Sercu Laura Hewitt Tom Knox www.pwc.com/structure for further details. Darin Siders Laura Hildebrand* Tom Snyder Dave Blumstein Laura Lynch Tressa Teranishi* © September 2018 by PwC and the Urban Land Institute. David Baldwin Leah Waldrum Trevor Toombs* Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. No part of David Baranick Lee Overstreet Warren Marr this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic David Boyd* Lee-Anne Kovacs* Yousuf Abbasi or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any infor- David Gerstley Lorilynn Monty Yvens Faustin mation storage and retrieval system, without written permission of the David Leavitt Luke Stephenson Zac Konings* publisher. David Seaman Marcel Kanngiesser Zoe Funk Recommended bibliographic listing: David Swerling Martin Schreiber PwC and the Urban Land Institute: Emerging Trends in Real Estate® David Yee* Matt Manza *Canada-based. 2019. Washington, D.C.: PwC and the Urban Land Institute, 2018. ISBN: 978-0-87420-418-6 ii Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2019 Notice to Readers Emerging Trends in Real Estate® is a trends and forecast publication now in its 40th edition, and is one of the most highly regarded and widely read forecast reports in the real estate industry. Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2019, undertaken jointly by PwC and the Urban Land Institute, provides an outlook on real estate investment and devel- opment trends, real estate finance and capital markets, property sectors, metropolitan areas, and other real estate issues throughout the United States and Canada. Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2019 reflects the views of individuals who completed surveys or were interviewed as a part of the research process for this report. The views expressed herein, including all comments appearing in quotes, are obtained exclusively from these surveys and interviews and do not express the opinions of either PwC or ULI. Interviewees and survey participants represent a wide range of industry experts, including investors, fund managers, developers, property compa- nies, lenders, brokers, advisers, and consultants. ULI and PwC researchers personally interviewed 750 individuals and survey responses were received from more than 1,630 individuals, whose company affiliations are broken down below. Private property owner or commercial real estate developer 26.6% Real estate advisory or service firm 25.8% Private equity real estate investor 11.6% Homebuilder or residential land developer 10.6% Bank lender 5.9% Investment manager/adviser 5.7% Equity REIT or publicly listed real estate property company 3.9% Institutional equity investor 2.6% Institutional lender 1.7% Private REIT or nontraded real estate property company 1.6% Real estate debt investor 0.9% Securitized lender 0.5% Mortgage REIT 0.4% Other entity 2.4% Throughout the publication, the views of interviewees and/or survey respondents have been presented as direct quotations from the participant without attribution to any particular participant. A list of the interview participants in this year’s study who chose to be identified appears at the end of this report, but it should be noted that all interviewees are given the option to remain anonymous regarding their participation. In several cases, quotes contained herein were obtained from interviewees who are not listed. Readers are cautioned not to attempt to attribute any quote to a specific individual or company. To all who helped, the Urban Land Institute and PwC extend sincere thanks for shar- ing valuable time and expertise. Without the involvement of these many individuals, this report would not have been possible. Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2019 1 2 Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2019 Chapter 1: New Era Demands New Thinking New Era Demands New Thinking “Real estate as an asset class has matured. Market participants need to realize this and make the appropriate adjustments.” In complicated conditions, organizing principles matter. When Let’s note an important distinction: complex does not mean the a disparate array of circumstances present themselves, the same thing as complicated. A 500-piece jigsaw puzzle is com- advice frequently comes, “Connect the dots.” Many of us will plicated, but it is static. Complexity is descriptive of systems, recall puzzle books from childhood where “connect the dots” especially dynamic systems, where the elements of the system brought us to a solution that showed a line drawing that revealed interact with each other in subtle ways. Those interactions
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