The Campaign Dynamics of the 2011 Ontario Election
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Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 8, No. 1, 2014, 126-140 How to Win and Lose an Election: The Campaign Dynamics of the 2011 Ontario Election Simon J. Kiss, Wilfrid Laurier University – E-mail address: [email protected] Andrea M.L., Perrella, Wilfrid Laurier University – E-mail address: [email protected] Barry J. Kay, Wilfrid Laurier University – E-mail address: [email protected] Abstract: Ontario’s general election on Oct. 6, 2011, produced a hung parliament and left much unresolved. The Progressive Conservative party under Tim Hudak entered the election year with promising prospects, and the PCs won 37 seats, 10 more than in 2007, yet failed to beat out the Liberals. The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath also enjoyed a much improved seat count of 17 elected members to Queen’s Park. Combined, the incumbent Liberals were re- elected, but reduced to a minority of 53 seats, one seat shy of a majority, and the first minority government in Ontario politics since 1985. Premier Dalton McGuinty’s attempt to secure a majority of seats in the form of 2012 by-elections failed, and shortly thereafter he resigned, leaving his Liberals and Ontario politics on stand-by for a possible non-confidence vote and, consequently, a new election. This review examines how the 2011 result unfolded. We place attention on campaign dynamics and issue salience. Keywords: Ontario, election Résumé: L’élection générale tenue en Ontario le 6 oct. 2011 a résulté en un parlement sans majorité et une situation indécise. Le Parti Progressiste Conservateur de Tim Hudak entreprit l’année électorale avec des perspectives prometteuses, et le PC gagna 37 sièges, 10 de plus qu’en 2007, échouant cependant à battre les Libéraux. Le Nouveau Parti Démocratique d’Andrea Horvath profita également d’une représentation accrue à 17 sièges à Queen’s Park. Au total, les Libéraux sortants furent réélus, mais réduits à une minorité de 53 sièges, à un siège de la majorité, formant ainsi le premier gouvernement minoritaire en Ontario depuis 1985. Le premier ministre Dalton McGuinty échoua à atteindre la majorité par le biais d’élections partielles et démissionna peu après, laissant ses Libéraux et la politique ontarienne dans l’attente d’un possible vote de non-confiance et, conséquemment, d’une nouvelle élection. Cet article discute les résultats de l’élection de 2011, avec une attention particulière à la dynamique de la campagne et aux résultats marquants. Mots-clés: Ontario, elections Editor’s note: This analysis was completed in Spring 2013 126 Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 8, No. 1, 2014, 126-140 Introduction is less certain what that campaign would produce. What we could explore, however, In some ways, we still await the ultimate was the manner in which the 2011 election result of the 2011 Ontario general election. transpired into the current less-than-stable While the incumbent Liberals did win the result. election, they were reduced to 53 seats, one We approach this review of the 2011 seat shy of a majority. A year later, a pair of election by drawing on party platforms, by-elections could have changed the newspaper coverage of the campaign, parliamentary dynamics with the resignation publicly available public opinion polls, of two legislative seats. One riding, Vaughn, regional election results and an internet was held by former finance minister Greg panel survey conducted by Ipsos-Reid at the Sorbara, and widely expected to remain conclusion of the 2011 election. Liberal. However, the other seat, Kitchener- Waterloo, had been held by Elizabeth Vote Results and Regional Patterns Witmer of the Progressive Conservatives since 1990.1 She resigned to pursue a career Results of the 2011 election are summarized as chair of the Workplace Safety Insurance in Table 1, which also displays the 2007 Board, leaving an opening for the Liberals, results for comparison.2 While the Liberals who typically finished second in the riding, held on with a minority government of 53 and who regarded that riding as the key to a seats, they lost nearly 20 seats compared to parliamentary majority. Some speculated 2007 and saw their vote share drop five that it was precisely this opportunity percentage points. The two opposition McGuinty sought when he nominated parties saw gains, however the pattern is Witmer for that new public sector job, while uneven. The voter momentum was more Witmer, herself, stated publicly that her apparent for the NDP, which saw a six resignation was motivated by the health of percentage-point increase in vote share and a her husband (Ferguson, 2012; Paige, 2012; gain of seven seats. The PCs, on the other Talaga, 2012). hand, saw a more modest four percentage- In a way, the by-elections of point gain in vote share, but its seat count September 6, 2012, did change grew by 11. parliamentary dynamics, but not in the In past elections, there has been Liberals’ favour. While they held Vaughn, substantial overlap in seats won by a party at Kitchener-Waterloo elected New Democrat one level of government and a similarly Catherine Fife, a victory that in part may named party at another level, but that was reflect the “orange wave” that swept Canada less apparent in the 2011 election despite during the 2011 federal election, and only five months elapsing since the federal perhaps other ongoing issues, such as the vote. This suggests that the election was a labour dispute between Queen’s Park and first-order election in its own right (see Ontario teachers. In addition, with the Cutler 2008), dominated by concerns Liberals having replaced its leader on particular to Ontario, which we will explore January 26, 2013, the situation immediately below. became and remains unstable. Whether the 2011 election results dissolve into an earlier- than-expected general campaign is a question we cannot, at present, determine. It 127 Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 8, No. 1, 2014, 126-140 Table 1: Vote and seat results in 2007 and 2011. 2007 2011 Change Votes Seats Votes Seats Votes Seats Liberal 42% 71 38% 53 -5% -18 PC 32% 26 35% 37 4% 11 NDP 17% 10 23% 17 6% 7 Table 2: Regional vote and seat results in 2007 and 2011. 2007 Liberal PC NDP Votes Seats Votes Seats Votes Seats Toronto 45.5% 18 23.7% 0 21.3% 4 GTA 47.3% 14 33.4% 4 10.8% 0 Hamilton/ 37.7% 5 33.2% 3 20.5% 3 Niagara East 40.2% 12 38.5% 10 11.8% 0 Southwest 39.7% 15 34.1% 9 14.6% 0 North 43.8% 7 14.6% 0 36.8% 3 Total 42.2% 71 31.8% 26 16.8% 10 2011 Liberal PC NDP Votes Seats Votes Seats Votes Seats Toronto 45.0% 17 24.1% 0 27.1% 5 GTA 43.7% 13 35.5% 4 16.7% 1 Hamilton/ 35.2% 4 34.3% 3 26.5% 4 Niagara East 34.4% 8 43.9% 14 17.3% 0 Southwest 32.8% 7 40.6% 15 21.9% 2 North 32.0% 4 24.8% 1 40.5% 5 Total 37.6% 53 35.4% 37 22.7% 17 128 Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 8, No. 1, 2014, 126-140 over 10 percentage points, while in the city of Toronto there was barely any change An examination of federal and from 2007. To illustrate with some specific provincial vote patterns in Ontario is constituency examples, the narrowest 2007 facilitated by the fact that the province uses losses for the PCs in Toronto had been in the the same configuration of electoral ridings of Don Valley West and Eglinton- constituencies created for the federal Lawrence, where their margins of defeat redistribution. The one exception is that expanded by more than 15 percentage points there is an additional seat allocated to in each, even though the party was gaining northern Ontario meaning that there are 107 province wide. provincial electoral districts, rather than the It might be added that in the more 106 federal constituencies. The boundaries rural Eastern and Southwestern sections of south of the Nipissing (North Bay) the province that the few constituencies not riding are the same for both levels of won by the PCs were in the urban government. concentrations of Ottawa, London and There were 45 seats won by different Windsor. The GTA and Hamilton-Niagara parties between the federal and Ontario regional margins did move somewhat elections of 2011, the majority of them toward the PCs, but less so than the being in the northern suburbs within provincial average. Northern Ontario was Toronto, and the adjacent Greater Toronto the NDP’s strongest area of growth moving Area (GTA) coterminous with the 905 area from a seven-point deficit to the Liberals in code up to the Mississauga/Oakville 2007, to an eight-point advantage this time. boundary. In most cases they were federal A contributing factor in this increasing Conservative seats that the Liberals won regional distinctiveness appeared to be a provincially. backlash to a McGuinty Liberal government The swing in the province-wide program of proliferating wind turbines in popular vote between the 2007 and 2011 rural areas that many saw as a visual blight.3 elections indicated a decline in the Liberal edge over the PCs from 10.4 to 2.2 Pre-Campaign Context percentage points. However, as reflected in Table 2, there were substantial variations by Conditions for the Liberal vote and region. seat losses began to unfold well before the In short, the election witnessed an actual election campaign. Almost since its extension in the previously established trend re-election in 2007, the party had been in a toward urban-rural polarization.