Market Report Primavera 2017 2 AGUIRRE NEWMAN Economic Overview 5
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Market Report Primavera 2017 2 AGUIRRE NEWMAN Economic Overview 5 Offices 19 Industrial 51 Retail 61 Agenda Tourism 79 Investment 97 PRIMAVERA MARKET REPORT 2017 3 Economic Overview Europe Economic Overview 6 AGUIRRE NEWMAN Europe In 2016, the European Union’s Gross Domestic central European countries like the Netherlands, Product (GDP) fell by 100 basis points comparing France and Germany, and also the recent rela- to 2015. This decrease was, in part, due to the tionship between Europe and the United States instability felt in Europe which increased levels since the election of Donald Trump. of economic uncertainty: “Brexit”, elections in Table 1 GDP in Portugal / Spain / EU 1998 → 2016 4.50% 3.50% 2.50% 1.50% 0.50% -0.50% -1.50% -2.50% -3.50% -4.50% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 E SOURCE: EUROSTAT EU 28 SPAIN PORTUGAL PRIMAVERA MARKET REPORT 2017 7 In the last quarter of 2016, the EU and the euro area’s GDP increased, by 1.8% and 1.7% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a slight economic growth for most countries. Table 2 Brent Price / GDP in EU28 2005 → 2016 140 4.00% 3.00% 120 2.00% 100 1.00% 80 0.00% 60 -1.00% -2.00% 40 -3.00% 20 -4.00% 0 -5.00% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 E SOURCE: BLOOMBERG BRENT PRICE GDP EU 28 8 AGUIRRE NEWMAN The Brent price has maintained its upward trend Last year, the inflation rate in Europe increased since 2015, after having been at its lowest rate by 0.3%, mainly due to the decrease in monetary in the last 10 years in 2015, at US$37.28 per bar- stimulus (programme of debt purchasing) and rel. The European barrel price has been driven the interest rate increase. up because of anticipation that surplus in supply would decrease after the cut in production by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Table 3 Inflation Rate 2005 → 2016 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 E SOURCE: EUROSTAT PORTUGAL EURO ZONE SPAIN EU 28 PRIMAVERA MARKET REPORT 2017 9 The European and Global economy continue continued to be particularly positive in the to grow; a reality which is reflected in Spanish job market, with the unemployment unemployment rates. The unemployment rate rate decreasing from 22.2% in 2015 to 18.63% in the European Union has decreased by 120 at the end of 2016. These figures confirm the basis points since 2015, to 8.2% at the end moment of growth acceleration for the Iberian of 2016. The effects of economic recovery Peninsula’s biggest economy. Table 4 Unemployment rate 2005 → 2016 27.00% 24.00% 21.00% 18.00% 15.00% 12.00% 9.00% 6.00% 3.00% 0.00% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 E SOURCE: EUROSTAT PORTUGAL EURO ZONE SPAIN EU 28 10 AGUIRRE NEWMAN The unemployment rate in the European Union decreased to 8.2% in 2016. PRIMAVERA MARKET REPORT 2017 11 Portugal Economic Overview 12 AGUIRRE NEWMAN Portugal According to the INE (National Statistical Insti- The unemployment rate in the 4th quarter of tute), GDP increased by 1.9% in the 4th quarter 2016 was at 10.5%, maintaining the rate of the of 2016, driving up performance for the rest of preceding quarter. For the whole year of 2016, the year. For the whole year of 2016, an increase the average annual rate was 11%, which was of 1.4% in GDP was registered (compared to 1.6% lower than the previous year (12.4% in 2015). in 2015). These figures reflect the positive effects of mea- sures taken to boost the Portuguese economy. Table 5 Unemployment and inflation rate Portugal 2010 → 2016 18.00% 13.00% 8.00% 3.00% -2.00% 1ºT 2ºT 3ºT 4ºT 1ºT 2ºT 3ºT 4ºT 1ºT 2ºT 3ºT 4ºT 1ºT 2ºT 3ºT 4ºT 1ºT 2ºT 3ºT 4ºT 1ºT 2ºT 3ºT 4ºT 1ºT 2ºT 3ºT 4ºT 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: INE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE INFLATION RATE PRIMAVERA MARKET REPORT 2017 13 For 2017, the projections of the Portuguese economy indicate sustained growth in economic activity, as a result of strong external demand. Table 6 GDP growth forecast Portugal 2017 → 2019 2017 f (%) 2018 f (%) 2019 f (%) Portuguese Government 1.5 1.9 2.0 Bank of Portugal 1.4 1.5 1.5 European Commission 1.6 1.5 – OECD 1.3 1.3 – SOURCE: MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, BANK OF PORTUGAL, EUROPEAN COMISSION AND OECD For 2017, the projections of the Portuguese economy indicate sustained growth in economic activity, as a result of strong external demand. 14 AGUIRRE NEWMAN Table 7 Economic Climate Indicator in Portugal 2005 → 2016 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: INE EURIBOR 3M Growth in the confidence indicator was due to increased expectations for the growth of inter- nal and external demand. PRIMAVERA MARKET REPORT 2017 15 Table 8 Euribor Rate 2005 → 2016 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, EURIBOR RATES SÉRIE 1 According to the CMVM (Portuguese Securities Market Commission), in December 2016, the mar- ket capitalisation reached €237,814.9 million; an increase of 2.9% from the previous year. The PSI- 20 share index fell by 11.9% from December 2015, reaching 4679.2 points in December 2016. 16 AGUIRRE NEWMAN Positive expectations for internal and external demand increase the confidence indicator. PRIMAVERA MARKET REPORT 2017 17 Offices mapa_aguirre.pdf 1 20/05/15 12:48 N COMPANIES’ MIGRATION W E LISBON 2015 mapa_aguirre.pdf 1 20/05/15 12:48 N COMPANIES’ MIGRATION S W E LISBON 2015 S PARQUE VASCO da GAMA das NAÇÕES BRIDGE Av. B AIRPORT erlim e u VASCO da GAMA q i r s PARQUE n o e R n a H A . UL e c A D R C v. O I M e I C t a I s ª r e n 2 c o o h a d a f ã l G n o a o I J m . d e . s v e d D a A . C m o v s a l ta A A asil The present study is based on the information provided by LPI index v. Br das NAÇÕES A (Lisbon Prime Index), a Real Estate Index used to evaluate the Lisbon office market performance, regarding the volume of sq. m traded, the number of recorded transactions and the Destination Office BRIDGE Zones (in which the companies have leased new office spaces) in the BENFICA years 2013 and 2014. For the identification of each transaction’s origin, eleven categories of sources were considered: érica Entrecampos a Am os d nid das s U • Office Zones 1 - 7 Arma do orças Esta das F os Av. Av. d • Out of Lisbon – companies who moved from outside the Lisbon Radial de Be region to one of the Office Zones 1 - 7 n ca A v . A d v • Activity Start-Up – Start-up companies whose first office is in the a . 5 R e d Destination Office Zone address for the transactions identified p e ú O IC Praça de b u C l 1 i ão XXI 9 t c Av. Jo u S a IN b • Structural Growth - increase of leased area through growth of the T R Espanha r A o M company structure, corresponding to new premises in the Destina - tion Office Zones 1-7 Y N CM • No Information - cases where it was not possible to identify the - 1 transaction’s origin, due to insufficient information regarding the MY 1 e 7 u corporate name of the company and / or the correct address of the q i r CY n Destination Office Zone - residual weight of less than 1% e H A v . D A CMY . R. Mo e A rais So t . ares n Office Zone 7, accordingly to LPI index, represents all offices located A a MONSANTO g f n u Saldanha I K ia . outside the main zones, which corresponds geographically to all the r v A areas of Lisbon which are not within zones 1 - 6. In this sense, office transactions analysed in this report as having occurred in Office Zone CAMPOLIDE 7, correspond only to those registered by LPI index, and, we believe, L Marquês are not representative of all transactions performed on the market U de Pombal outside zones 1-6. S ulé - Lo e de E Av. Duqu guiar T R. Joaquim A. A R s A i v WESTERN CORRIDOR e O R . e B N t n e a r r S i l I O A m - im C l X A A S . I v A v . C d A 5 E a A L ib AIRPORT e rd a d TEJO RIVER AMOREIRAS e Largo do Rato to an ESTRELA S te n fa 4% In v.