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Options for the Second Commitment Period of the 05 Kyoto Protocol ISSN 1611-8855

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Options for the Second Commitment Period of the 05 Kyoto Protocol ISSN 1611-8855 Climate Change Climate Change 02 Options for the second commitment period of the 05 Kyoto Protocol ISSN 1611-8855 Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH OF THE FEDERAL MINISTRY OF THE ENVIRONMENT, NATURE CONSERVATION AND NUCLEAR SAFETY Research Report 203 41 148/01 UBA-FB 000771 Climate Change Options for the second 02 commitment period of 05 the Kyoto Protocol ISSN 1611-8855 by Niklas Höhne Dian Phylipsen Simone Ullrich Kornelis Blok with contributions from: Carolina Galleguillos Ruut Brandsma Robert Janzic Jochen Harnisch (Ecofys) Michel den Elzen (RIVM) Martin Weiß (German Federal Environmental Agency) ECOFYS GmbH, Cologne UMWELTBUNDESAMT This Publication is only available as Download at http://www.umweltbundesamt.de The publisher does not accept responsibility for the correctness, accuracy or completeness of the information, or for the observance of the private rights of third parties. The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions. Publisher: Federal Environmental Agency (Umweltbundesamt) Postfach 33 00 22 14191 Berlin Tel.: +49/30/8903-0 Telex: 183 756 Telefax: +49/30/8903 2285 Internet: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de Edited by: Section I 4.1 Martin Weiß Berlin, February 2005 ECOFYS Options for the second commitment period 1. Berichtsnummer 2. 3. UBA-FB 4. Titel des Berichts „Kyoto-Protokoll: Untersuchung von Optionen für die Weiterentwicklung der Verpflichtungen für die 2. Verpflichtungsperiode“. 5. Autor(en), Name(n), Vorname(n) 8. Abschlussdatum Höhne, Niklas 12. November 2004 Dr. Phylipsen, Dian Ullrich, Simone 9. Veröffentlichungsdatum Prof. Dr. Blok, Kornelis Mit Beiträgen von Galleguillos, Carolina (ECOFYS) Brandsma, Ruut (ECOFYS) Janzic, Robert (ECOFYS) Harnisch, Jochen (ECOFYS) den Elzen, Michel (RIVM) Weiß, Martin (Umweltbundesamt) 6. Durchführende Institution (Name, Anschrift) ECOFYS GmbH Eupener Straße 59 10. UFOPLAN-Nr. 50933 Köln 203 41 148/01 Deutschland Tel. +49 221 510 907 0 11. Seitenzahl 192 7. Fördernde Institution (Name, Anschrift) 12. Literaturangaben Umweltbundesamt Postfach 33 00 22 D-14191 Berlin 13. Tabellen und Diagramme 36 14. Abbildungen 37 15. Zusätzliche Angaben -/- 16. Kurzfassung Diese Studie untersucht Optionen für die Weiterentwicklung der Verpflichtungen des Kyoto-Protokolls für die 2. Verpflichtungsperiode. Die Studie umfasst die folgenden inhaltlichen Kapitel: eine Einführung, einen Überblick über Regimevorschläge und den Aufbau eines Netzwerkes, Analyse von Länderinteressen, beispielhafte Länderstudien, einen Überblick über die zu beachtenden Themen, Optionen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel, ein neuer Vorschlag „Common but Differentiated Convergence“, eine Überarbeitung des Triptych Ansatzes, ein umfassender Kompromissvorschlag, der Vergleich von Emissionsberechtigungen unter verschiedenen Ansätzen und eine Verhandlungsstrategie für die EU und Deutschland in den internationalen Verhandlungen. 17. Schlagwörter Klimarahmenkonvention, UNFCCC, Kyoto-Protokoll, zukünftige Verpflichtungen, internationale Klimapolitik, Gerechtigkeitsprinzipien, Mehrstufenansatz 18. Preis 19. 20. 2 ECOFYS Options for the second commitment period 1. Report No. 2. 3. UBA-FB 4. Report Title Options for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol 5. Autor(s), Family Name(s), First Name(s) 8. Report Date Höhne, Niklas 12. November 2004 Dr. Phylipsen, Dian Ullrich, Simone 9. Publication Date Prof. Dr. Blok, Kornelis With contributions from: Galleguillos, Carolina (ECOFYS) Brandsma, Ruut (ECOFYS) Janzic, Robert (ECOFYS) Harnisch, Jochen (ECOFYS) den Elzen, Michel (RIVM) Weiß, Martin (German Federal Environmental Agency) 6. Performing Organisation (Name, Address) ECOFYS GmbH 10. UFOPLAN-Ref. No. Eupener Straße 59 203 41 148/01 50933 Cologne Germany 11. No. of Pages Tel. +49 221 510 907 0 192 7. Sponsoring Agency (Name, Address) 12. No. of Reference Umweltbundesamt (Federal Environmental Agency) Postfach 33 00 22 13. No. of Tables, Diagrams D-14191 Berlin 36 Germany 14. No. of Figures 37 15. Supplementary Notes -/- 16. Abstract This study assesses available options for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The study includes the following sections: An introduction, an overview of proposals and establishing a network, analysis of interests of countries, selected country case studies, an overview of the issues to be considered, options for adaptation to climate change, a new approach “Common but Differentiated Convergence”, an update of the Triptych approach, a comprehensive compromise proposal, the comparison of emission allowances under various approaches and a negotiation strategy for the EU and Germany. 17. Keywords Climate Change Convention, UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, future commitments, international climate policy, equity principles, multistage 18. Price 19. 20. 3 ECOFYS Options for the second commitment period SUMMARY 1. Introduction With the long awaited entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol on 16 February 2005 there is hope that the deadlock in international climate negotiations can be overcome. Still, the USA, as the largest emitter, has rejected emission reductions and developing countries will not act before industrialized countries (including the USA) have demonstrated substantial action. It is the general understanding that the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is only a first step. Reaching the ultimate objective of the climate convention (UNFCCC), “to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” is only possible, if emission reductions are intensified and participation in those reductions is broadened. This project “Options for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol” was commissioned to ECOFYS GmbH by the German Federal Environmental Agency (UBA) in June 2003. Building upon the previous ECOFYS study on “Evolution of commitments under the UNFCCC: Involving newly industrialized economies and development countries”, the project aims at identifying possible options of a post 2012 commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The objective of this final report thus is to provide an overview of the issues, to further develop approaches and to discuss a possible negotiation strategy related to the design of the second commitment period after 2012. The findings of this report intend to facilitate any discussion on the future of the international climate change regime. The scope of work of the project included the following modules: To establish an international network of experts active in future climate change activities and post-2012 discussions and dialogues; To review possible options how to design a second commitment period; To further develop selected available approaches for a second commitment period; To quantify and to assess effects of approaches for selected countries and regions; and To provide some recommendations of how to develop a negotiating strategy for Germany and the EU. The key findings are presented in Chapter 2 to 11 of the final report. The results of each chapter are outlined below. 2. Network and overview of proposals The project team set up the website on “Future international action on climate change (www.fiacc.net) that serves since December 2003 as an information platform pooling information on active players discussing future international action on climate change, approaches, tools supporting quantification of future commitments, contributions and actions. An online discussion forum has been used as a platform to discuss various topics related to future action on climate change together with experts and an interested audience. The website has achieved a substantial level of interest among the climate change community and is consulted frequently by individuals to retrieve information and read about recent developments. 4 ECOFYS Options for the second commitment period The online discussions included the following topics: “converging per capita emissions”, “the role of the USA and its re-engagement in climate policy debates”, “interpreting Article 2 of the Convention, dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” and “costs of mitigation and its calculation by utilising Integrated Assessment Models”. 230 individuals registered and followed discussions. The website will remain active and discussions will continue on further topics also after this project terminates, then funded by the European Commission. 3. Interest of countries Chapter 3 identifies different expectations of selected countries or country groups towards a future international climate regime. First a detailed list of criteria was developed against which various approaches can be checked. The checklist developed differentiates between environmental criteria, economic criteria, technical/institutional criteria and political criteria. Starting from the identified criteria, selected country perspectives (EU, USA, Advanced Developing Countries & Least Developed Countries) were then summarized (Table A) and possible areas of conflict between different groups of countries studied in greater detail. Table A. Assessment of countries’ perceived emphasis on criteria for future climate regimes Advanced Least Category of criteria developing developed EU 25 USA Sub-criteria countries countries (ADCs) (LDCs) Environmental criteria (1) Putting emphasis on environmental YY N 0 Y1 effectiveness (2) Participation of industrialized countries Y 0 YY YY (3) Encouraging Early Action Y Y 0 0 (4) Involvement of developing
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