World Bank Document

ReportNo. 5206-CHA China: Long-Term Issues and Options Annex D: Model and Projections

May 22, 1985 Public Disclosure Authorized EastAsia and PacificRegional Office

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

Documentof-the World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized

Thjisrpt has'areticed di'stributionand may be used by recipients only in the Performanceof,th& rofficial duties. Its conhtentsmay not otheirwise be'disclosed. withoutWorld Bainkautihorization.

74. vr - --. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

The Chinese currency is calLed Renminbi (RMB). It is denominated in Yuan (Y). Each Yuan is

I Yuan = 10 jiao = 100 fen

In early 1984 the official exchange rate of the Yuan to the US dollar was around Y 2 = US$1. The internal settlement rate (ISR) of Y 2.8 = $1, however, was used in most merchandise transactions. The official exchange rate is now about Y 2.8 = $1. On January 1, 1985, the Government abolished the ISR.

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

Chinese statistics are usually in metric units; in addition, mu and jin are often used:

1 mu 0.1647 acres = 0.0667 hectares l jin = 0.5 kg

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 - December 31

TRANSLITERATION

The Pinyin system is used in this report.

TERMINOLOGY

(1) With the recent reorganizationof rural administration, "communes" have been replaced by "townships," and "production brigades and teams" by "villages." This report retains the former cerminology in one respect, however, by referring to "commune and brigade enterprises."

(2) The term "national income" is used in this report to encompass both the Chinese measure (net material product) and the Western measure (gross national product). Where the context makes the distinction between these two measures important, they are more precisely identified.

Note: In tables, individual items may not sum exactly to totals because of rounding errors. FOR OFFICUIL USE ONLY

CHINA: LONG TERM ISSUES AND OPTIONS

ANNEX D: MODEL AND PROJECTIONS

Table of Contents

Page No.

1. INTRODUCTION...... 1

2. EQUATIONS OF THE MODEL ...... 1...... 1 Gross Output...... 5 Fmployment-,Labor Force and Population...... 6 Prices, Net Output, Wages and Profits...... 7 Use and Distribution of National Income...... 9 Sectoral Domestic Demand...... 11 Foreign Trade...... 13 Investment Allocation and Capital Accumulation...... 15 Supplementary Energy Equations...... 18

3. BASE YEAR DATA...... 19

4. QUADRUPLE, MODERATE, BALANCE: ASSUMPTIONS...... 20 Incremental Capital-Output Ratios...... 20 Energy Use...... 22 Other Input-OutputCoefficients ...... 22 Consumer Demand Elasticities...... 26 Foreign Trade and Capital...... 29 Other Assumptions ...... 31

5. QUADRUPLE, MODERATE, BALANCE: RESULTS...... 33

6. URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION .. 52

APPENDICES

A. Glossary of Symbols ...... 55 B. Computer Program of the Model...... 63 C. Additional Results of QUAD RUPLE...... 90 D. Additional Results of BALANCE ...... 98

List of Figures in the Text

1. Long Term Causation...... 3 2. Short Term Causation ...... 4

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their offwcialduties Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Banlkauthorization. Page No.

List of Tables in the Text

4.1 Incremental Capital-Output Ratios ...... 21 4.2 Changes in Energy Use Coefficients ...... 23 4.3 Assumed Composition of Refined Petroleum Products Use, 1981... 24 4.4 Changes in Nonenergy Input-Output Coefficients 1981-2000: QUADRUPLE and MODERATE ...... , 25 4.5 Input-Output Coefficients in BALANCE ...... 27 4.6 Consumer Demand Elasticicies ...... 28 4.7 Foreign Trade Coefficients .. 30 4.8 Other Coefficients ...... 32

6.1 Urban-Rural Distribution of Employment, Capital and Output Under Alternative Projections, 1981-2000 ...... 53 6.2 Growth in Capital and Output per Worker in Urban and Rural Areas Under Alternative Projections, 1981-2000 ...... 54 -: ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1

1. INTRODUCTION

1.01 This annex contains a cechnical description of the multisectoral economic model used in preparing this report, together with more detailed results of the projections summnarizedin the main report. It is designed to be read in conjunctionwith Chapter 2 of the main report. A possible combined reading sequence would be as follows:

(a) Main Report, Chapter 2, Section A and Box 2A (brief description of the model);

(b) Annex D, Chapter 2 (equations of the model);

Cc) Annex D, Chapter 3 (sources of data for the model);

(d) Main Report, Chapter 2, Section B (introductory discussion of the spirit and assumptions of the projections);

(e) Annex D, Chapter 4 (more detailed information on the assumptions of the projections);

(f) Main Report, Chapter 2, Sections C-F (discussion of the main results of the projections); and

(g) Annex D, Chapter 5 (more detailed results of the projections).

1.02 Appendices to this annex contain a glossary of symbols, the computer program of the model (with explanatory notes), and additional results of the QUADRUPLE and BALANCE projections.

2. EQUATIONS OF THE MODEL

2.01 The model is a type of dynamic input-outputmodel, designed to analyze long-term patterns of growth and structural change. (It is not suitable for short or medium-term analysis: see Main Report, para. 2.07.) The model is large because there are 20 sectors, but technically quite simple, with only about 30 (non-redundant)equations per sector. Like other models, its equations fall into two main categories: those - the great majority - which determine the values of variables within each period (year); and those which update the values of certain variables between periods - population and sectoral capital stocks being the most important such variables.

2.02 Within each period, demand and supply in individual traded-goods sectors are reconciled by endogenous changes in net foreign trade balances. In other sectors, this reconciliationis achieved by temporary changes in capacity utilization (deviations of sectoral capital-outputratios from their assumed long-term values). Between periods, however, the allocation of investment among sectors tends to eliminate unwanted trade imbalances and deviations from normal capacity utilization. over time, as a result, the -2- composition of production is determined mainly by the composition of demand, even though the aggregate growth rate depends heavily on the pace of investment in capacity expansion. Neither in individual sectors nor in aggregate is growth constrained by availability of labor, partly because skilled labor - which is scarce in China - is for statistical reasons not distinguished from unskilled labor, partly because there is assumed to be an unlimited pool of surplus labor in agriculture.

2.03 Prices play only a limited role in this model. Neither production, nor foreign trade, nor any component of domestic demand, responds directly to changes in (relative) prices. Nor are relative prices affected by demand- supply imbalances. Instead (as explained in the box on wages, profits and prices in Chapter 2 of the Main Report), they are determined by relative production costs - including labor, materials and capital. However, the relationshipbetween average prices and average wages plays an important macroeconomic role: specifically, the distribution of national income between profits and wages is determined by the need to achieve the governmenc's target aggregate saving rate. It is thus adjustment of household income and consumption, rather than (as in some other models) saving or investment or the overall foreign trade balance, that equates aggregate demand and aggregate supply.

2.04 The following discussion goes through the equations of the model in groups, concentrating on the principles of the equations (see also the simpli- fied flow charts in Figures 1 and 2). To make the model easier to solve in practice, some additional lags (to reduce the degree of within-period simultaneity), and some damping factors (to prevent oscillations) were inserted. These can be found in the computer program of the model (Appendix B), which also contains additional (redundant) equations, some of which are used to derive MPS (Chinese-style)national accounts from the SNA (Western-style) national accounts generated by the model, while the rest calculate other variables (e.g., shares and ratios) that are useful in studying and presenting the results.

2.05 The 20 sectors of the model, which are referred to in the equations by the subscript i, are as follows:

1. Crops (including forestry) 2. Animal husbandry (including fishing) 3. Metallurgy 4. Electricity 5. Coal 6. Petroleum extraction 7. Petroleum refining, which has two different products 71. Fuel oil 72. Distillates 8. Chemicals 9. Machinery (including metal products) 10. Building materials 11. Food processing 12. Textiles and clothing 13. Other manufacturing (including paper and wood products) Figure 1: LONG-TERM CAUSATION

1 ~~~~~~~~Growth

I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~L

~~~~~~~~~~~~.. | TofePlc...... ComTposlHion Fgure2: SHORT-TERMCAUSATION

o C

|ectoral Tfcde Sectoralo In-balarI GrossOutput

|Imbalanc.s

r ornpo*iOn ~~~SpiltBetween Profits of Dornestic Sa9o & '&Wages Demond Consumption

Hoshold . ~ ~* ~ ~~~Consumfptbon Pa7ttern . . . @..v*. - roded Goocds Nontraded Goods Lagged Effect -5-

14. Construction 15. Transport (including passenger transport and communications) 16. Commerce 17. Miscellaneous services 18. Education and health 19. Public administrationand defense 20. Housing

2.06 These are sometimes consolidated into the following five sectors:

Agriculture = sector 1 + sector 2

Light industry = sector 11 + sector 12 + sector 13

Heavy industry = sector 3 + sector 5 + sector 6 sector 7 + sector 8 + sector 9 + sector 10

Infrastructure = sector 4 + sector 14 + sector 15

Services = sectors 16 to 20

Gross Output

2.07 Within-period gross output in eaci:sector is determined in one of three ways - by the inherited sectoral capital stock (via a production function), by demand, or by an exogenously given growth rate. Inherited sectoral capital stocks and production functions determine within-period output in sectors 2, 3, and 8-13, i.e., in animal husbandry and in all manufacturing sectors (except oil refining). In the infrastructureand service sectors (sectors 4 and 14-20), within-period output is determined by demand, in accordance with the material balance equations:

QSi = DDi + Xi - Mi (1.1) where DDi is domestic demand, Xi exports, and M- imports.l/ In sectors 1, 5, 3. 6 and 7, i.e., in crops, coal, petroleum extraction, and petroleum refining, output grows at an exogenously given rate. (Growth of petroleum refining is set to be consistent with growth of petroleum extraction: refined petroleum output is divided between fuel oil and distillates in exogenously specified proportions.)

2.08 The sectoral production functions are (with one exception) of the form:

1/ Exports and imports in infrastructure and services are zero, except for transport and commerce, where they are exogenously specified fractions of (i.e., transport and trade margins on) other exports and imports. -6-

K.(-1) QSi = 1 + a. i = 2-20 (1.2) i ak. where QS. is gross output, Ki(-l) is the capital stock at the beginning of the period, aki is the incremental capital-output ratio, and a: is a constant term. The exception is the crop sector, in which, to take'account of the diminishing returns to inputs applied to a fixed quantity of Land, the production function is of the form:

QS1 = T.K (-l)01 . NB2 1 + 32 < 1 (1.3) where N is a fixed-proportionsaggregate of intermediate inputs and T represents the state of technology. Both N and T increase at exogenously specified rates. As explained later, the role of the production functions in sectors in which within-period output is determined by demand or exogenously is to determine investment requirements.

Employment, Labor Force and Population

2.09 In all sectors, production requires not only capital, but also specified amounts of both intermediate inputs and (except in crops) labor. Specifically,employment in each sector except crops is2 etermined by gross output and an exogenous labor productivitycoefficient:-

Li aL.iQS. i = 2 - 20 (2.1)

Employment in the crop sector, where labor is assumed to be in surplus, is the difference between the total labor force, L, and employment in all other sectors.

L = L L. i = 2 - 20 (2.2)

The labor force, and the total population, POP, are both exogenous.

2/ Decreases in these labor input coefficients, reflecting technical progress and increased efficiency, are in this model the single most important source of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The rate of TFP growth is also influenced by changes in sectoral capital-output ratios, and in intermediate input coefficients, as well as by intersectoral shifts in resource alLocation. -7-

Prices, Net Output, Wages, and Profits

2.10 Prices (which in the base year are all set equal to one) are determined by unit costs of production, including capital costs.

a. (-1 ) Pi a .P 4a"Li Wi Q . PAI. (3.1)

where a. * are input-output coefficients. W. is the sectoral wage rate, PAI. is the sectoral profit rate on capital (gross of depreciation),and K (-l)/QS. is the sectoral average capital-outputratio. Seccoral profit rates 3epend on the overall level of profits in the economy, whose determination is explained below, and on exogenouslv given relationships among profit rates in u'ifferent sectors. FormaLly, all profit rates are linked to the profit rate in one of the sectors,

PAI = ZETA iPAI3 i = 1, 2, 4-17 (3.2) where ZETAi is the ratio of the profit rate in sector i to the profit rate in sector 3 (the choice of sector 3 is arbitrary, and makes no difference). In sectors 18 and 19 (education and health, and public administrationand defense), the profit rate is simply the depreciation rate, and in sector 20 (housing), it is the rental rate.

2.11 These price equations are capable of determining only relative prices. The absolute price level is determined by requiring in addition that the ratio of nominal to real national income (PBAR) remains constant and equal to its base year value of one. (Other normalization rules would be possible.) Given this normalization rule, and the wage rates, W; (whose determination is explained below), equatioi7 3.1 and 3.2 together determine all sectoral prices and profit rates.-

2.12 Net output in each sector is computed by subtracting from gross output all intermediateuses.

NQi = QSi (P. a...P.) (3.3)

3/ These sectoral prices and profit rates evidently also depend on inherited sectoral capital stocks and gross output levels, which between them determine average sectoral capital-output ratios. The relationship between the absolute amount of profit in each sector, PROF., and the sectoral profit rate also depends on the price of capital goods, PK (equation 7.18). Algebraically, PROF. = PAI. K1 (-1). PK. In the crop sector, LlIQSl is used instead of an exogenous labor input coefficient. -8-

2.13 The wage rates in each sector depend on the overall Level of wages in the economy (whose determination is explained in para. 2.23), but also on exogenously given relativities a. among sectoral wage rates, and on the levels of employment in the variousL sectors. Specifically, the wage rates in other sectors are arbitrarily normalized on the wage rate of the metallurgy sector.

Wi a W3 i = 1, 2, 4-20 (3.4)

2.14 The wage bill in each sector is simply the product of the wage rate and employment:

WBi = Wi I Li (3.5)

And the sum of all sectoral wage bills is the economy's total wage biLl, WB.

WB = IWB. (3.6) -1

Given WB, which (as explained below) is governed by the level of national income and by saving and consumption targets, and given also sectoral employment levels, equations 3.4, 3.5 and 3.6 together determine all sectoral wage bills and wage rates.

2.15 Profit (including depreciation and taxes) in sectors 1-17 is the difference between net output and the wage bill:

PROF. NQi - WBi i = 1,2...,17 (3.7) 1 i I

2.16 For education and health, public administrationand defense, and housing, depreciationand rent are likewise calculated as

DEPR. = NQ. - WB. i = 18,19 (3.8) L 1. 1

RENT = NQ. - WBi i = 20 (3.9)

2.17 Nominal gross domestic product, Y, is determined as the sum of sectoral net output, adjusted for losses incurred in foreign trade. (These losses, which arise for reasons explained in para. 2.37, could alternatively have been subtracted from the profits of the commerce sector.) Thus,

Y = I NQi - XLOSS - MLOSS (3.10) -9-

where XLOSS and MLOSS are, respectively, losses on exports and imports, defined as

XLOSS = IP.X. - DOLX EXCHR(3.11) and MLOSS = -(2P.X. - DOLM . EXCHR) 1 L

2.18 In the above formulas, DOLX and DOLM are, respectively, total exports and imports denominated in US dollars and EXCER is the yuan/dollar exchange rate (discussed further below).

2.19 Nominal gross domestic product is by definition also the sum of wage bill, profit (net of.foreign trade losses), and rent.

Y = WB + PROF + L DEPR. + RENT - XLOSS - MLOSS (3.12) L1 i = 18, 19 where

PROF = PROF. i = 1 - 17 (3.13)

Use and Distribution of National Income

2.20 The aggregate saving rate is exogenously given by government policy. It determines domestic saving.

SD = PY (4.1)

2.21 The difference between gross domestic product and domestic saving is total consumption;an exogenously specified share, g, also determined by government policy, is used for public consumption, GN, and the rest constituteshousehold consumption,CN.

GN = g (Y - SD) (4.2)

CN = Y - SD - CN (4.3)

2.22 Households save an exogenously given proportion, s, of their income, which consists of wages and rent:

CN = (1-s) Y(4.4) - 10 -

where Y WB RENT (4.5) H = +

2.23 The importance of these last two equations is that they show how the government's decision on division of national income between saving and consumption in this model determines the distributionof national income between wages and profits. In particular, by rewriting these equations as WB = CN/(l - s) - RENT it can be seen that the size of the aggregate wage bill is governed by the availability of resources for household consumption (the consumption fund). A corresponding equation can be written for aggregate profits, showing that they are determined by domestic saving (less household saving) plus public consumption requirements.

2.24 Aggregate gross investment is determined by domestic saving, SD, plus net foreign capital inflow, which in turn is equal to foreign borrowing, SF, plus net transfers (such as remittances) from abroad, NTR, and minus interest payments on foreign debt, DS.

IN = SD + SF + NTR - DS (4.6) where SF = DOLSF . EXCHR, (4.7) NTR = DOLNTR . EXCHR, (4.8) and DS = DOLDS . EXCHR (4.9)

DOLSF, DOLNTR and DOLDS are, respectively, foreign borrowing, net transfers, and interest expressed in foreign currency (dollars).

2.25 Foreign borrowing, net of amortization, is determined by a tgyget ratio, f, between the stock of external debt and the level of exports.- Therefore, foreign borrowing (in dollars) is determined in each period as

DOLSF = f . DOLX - DOLDEBT (-1) (4.10)

where DOLX and DOLDEBT are, respectively, total exports and outstanding debt denominated in dollars.

2.26 Interest payments on debt are determined as the product of an exogenous interest rate and the debt stock

4/ This ratio is closely related to the debt-service ratio. For example, assuming an average maturity of ten years and a 10% average rate of interest, a debt-service ratio of 20% would be equivalent to f equal to unity. - 11 -

DOLDS = interest . DOLDEBT(-1), (4.11) and outstanding debt is updated each period as

DOLDEBT = DOLDEBT(-l) + DOLSF. (4.12)

Sectoral Domestic Demand

2.27 Public consumption is divided among sectors by a set of exogenousLy given share parameters:

G. = e. . GN, le. 1 (5.1) L. 11

2.28 Similarly,,householdconsumption is divided among sectors according to a set of exogenously given sectoral consumer demand elasticities (cde-). Specifically, it is postulated that in each sector the increase in real per capita household consumption depends on its consumer demand elasticity and the increase in total real per capita household consumption, REALPCC, which is defined as

REALPCC p C 100 (5.2) POP . CP*10

CPI is the consumer price index, defined as

CPI = CN (-1)/(l C. (-I) / P.) (5.3) 1 I 1

2.29 In order to ensure that sectoral consumption sums to total consumption, a two-stage procedure is used. First, sectoral incremental consumption claims, CCLAIMi, are determined. These are then all scaled up or down propor- tionately to make their t Yal nominal value equal to the aggregate increment in household consumption.-

2.30 Total investment, IN, is divided between fixed investment, FI, and circulating capital investment, SK. This division depends on the allocation of investment by sectors of destination, Ii, whose determination is explained below; and also on the ratio, rhoi, of circulating to total capital within each sector of destination. Specifically,

5/ For the specific equations used in these two steps, see Appendix B. -12-

SK. = rho. [1I - delta. FK.(-1)] (5.4) and FI. I. - SK. (5.5) 1 1 1 where the rho. are given exogenously, and the deltai are depreciation rates on sectoral fixed capitaL stocks, FKi.. Hence,

SK = I SK. (5.6) and FI = IN - SK (5.7)

2.31 These total needs for fixed and circulating investment goods are then provided by the various sectors. Fixed investment goods are supplied in exogenously fixed shares, bi; circulating capital goods are supplied by material producing sectors in proportion to their gross output, with the exception of crops. Specifically,

o0 =SKO +b . FI (5.8) 1 1 1

I= phi (SK - SKO1) + b FI, phii = bi = 1 (5.9) i = 2,3,5-13 where SKO1 is the increase in circulating capital in the form of crops, bi are given exogenously,1~~~~~~~ and phii are determined by:

phi. = QS.IQSMAT , (5.10) where QSMAT is the total output of the material production sectors other than crops, i.e.,

QSMAT = I QS. i = 2,3,5-13 (5.11) i1

2.32 The change in crop stocks, SKOj, is normally determined as a proportion (0.75) of the change in crop output:

SKO1 = 0.75 . [QS1 - QS 1 (-1)] . p1 (5.12)

But if crop exports hit a predetermined ceiling, XMAX1, additional crop stocks are accumulated to balance crop demand and supply (this is to prevent unrea- sonably high crop exports).

2.33 Total real domestic demand DDi in each sector is thus the sum of total intermediatedemand, government and household consumption,and provision of investment goods. - 13 -

DDi = a.. * QSi + (C. + G. 10.)/P.i (5.13) 'j

Foreign Trade

2.34 As mentioned earlier, foreign trade in particular sectors adjusts in each period to fill the gap between domestic demand ai,dsupply (although over time investment adjusts so as to attain certain foreign trade targets - see below). But there is also a requirement that each sector maintain in each period a certain minimum amount of exports and imports. Thus if the demand for domestically produced goods is greater than suppiy, imports will fill this gap and exports will be fixed at a predetermined ratio (xshare-) of gross output. 'onversely, if the demand for domestically produced goods is smaller than supply, exports will fill the gap and imports will be fixed at a predetermined ratio (msharei) of domestic demand.

2.35 In symbols, if

(1 - mshare.) . DDi > (1 - xshare.) , QSi, (6.1) then 1 1

X. = xshare . QS; (6.2) 1 1. - 1 otherwise

X. = QSi - (1 - mshare.) . DD. i = 1-3, 5-6, 72, 8-13 (6.3)

2.36 Imports, M-, are simultaneouslydetermined with exports and are obtained from the fotlowing material balance equation once exports are determined by (6.2) or (6.3).

QS. = DD. + X. - M. i = 1-3, 5-6, 72, 8-13 (6.4)

Fuel oil is an exception: both its exports and its imports are exogenously determined (for reasons to be explained below). In transport and commerce, exports and imports are exogenously specified ratios of other exports and imports. In construction and the service sectors, exports and imports are exogenously set at zero. Total exports and imports in domestic currency at constant prices are:

X Xi (6.7)

and

M. (6.8)

.~~~~~~~~~~ - 14 -

2.37 Foreign Trade and Payments in Current Dollars. Exports and imports in domestic currency are converted to dollars as follows:

DOLX. = X. . WPINDX. . CFX. (6.9) and i L 1 1 DOLM. = M. . WPINDXI. . CFM. (6.10) 'I I I L where WPINDX- is the world price index in dollars, and CFX- and CFMi are the ratios of world prices to domestic prices in the base year for exports and imports respectively. (They are needed because domestic relative prices are in some cases quite different from relative world prices, so that conversion between dollars and renminbi at a uniform exchange rate is inappropriate. The existence of different ratios in different sectors is the main reason for XLOSS and MLOSS - which in principle could be negative, i.e., profits rather than losses.)

2.38 Total dollar exports and imports are, respectively

DOLX = I DOLU (6.1±) and

DOLM = XDOLM. (6.12)

i 1 2.39 Net transfers from abroad are assumed constant in real terms; they rise in nominal terms with world inflation:

DOLNTE = DOLNTRBS . WPINDX (6.13) where DOLNTRBS is base year net transfers in dollars.

2.40 The real exchange rate is also assumed to remain constant; in nominal terms, it thus adjusts according to the difference between world inflation and domestic inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator, PBAR):

EXCHR = EXCHBS . PBAR/WPINDX (6.14) where EXCHBSis the base year yuan/doLlar exchange rate. - 15 -

Investment Allocation and Capital Accumulation

2.41 Investment is allocated among sectors (of destination) according to one of three ruLes. First, investment is allocated to build up the amount of productive capacity required by demand or exogenously specified production growth. This is the rule used for alL the nontraded goods sectors (infrastructure and services), and for coal, petroleum extraction, petroleum refining, and crops. In these sectors the production function determines the desired capital stock, and investmenc allocation adjusts the actual capital stock to the desired level. Second, investment is aimed at achieving predetermined target sectoral trade deficits (or, to put it another way, sectoral self-sufficiencyratios). This specification is adopted for animal husbandry and food processing, and for several heavy industries - metallurgy, chemicals, and building materials. Third, for the remaining sectors, namely machinery, textiles and clothing, and other manufacturing, investment is allocated according to target shares of manufactured exports. Given the current deviations of exports from these target shares, more investment flows into sectors whose exports fall below the target, and vice versa.

2.42 More specifically, sectoral investment allocations are determined in the following way. The desired productive capacity K* commensurate wich a given output target is determined:

B2 I1 K [QS/(T . N) i = 1 (7.1)

K = ak.. (QS.- a.) i = 2 - 20 (7.2) 1 1 1 1

The required change in productive capacity is then estimated by simple extra- polation of past growth. To this estimate of investment requirements is added the need for replacement investment (based on the depreciation rate). Finally, sectoral investment requirements are modified by an error correction term based (depending on the sector) on the current deviation either of actual sectoral capacity from target capacity, or of the actual sectoral trade deficit from the target deficit, or of actual exports from target exports. This error correction does not operate instantaneously,but tends to ensure that in zhe long run sufficient investment is allocated to each sector to meet its particular target.

2.43 For crops, energy, infrastructure,and services, the investment allocation equations are: - 16 -

ICLAIM. = S. . FK. + K.(-1) . (K.(-1)/K.(-2) -1) i = 1 1. 1. .L 1 1 1 1 (7.3) a2 8 + [QSI/(T.N )] -K.(-l)

ICLAIM. = . FK. + ak..'QS. (QS.IQS.(-I)-1) i i 1 i. Q. i i1(Q i i= 4-7, 14-20

+ (QS a) ak. * (aki/ak (-1) -1)

+ [aki * (QSi - a.) - Ki(-1)] (7.4)

2.44 The first term on the right-hand side is replacement investment; the middle terms represent the desired change in capacity (allowing for the possi- bility of changing akI); and the last term is the error correction. (In the case of crops, as a slmplification,we let the growth in capital stock in the last period determine the desired change in capacity.)

2.45 For animal husbandry, food processing, retallurgy, chemicals, and building materials, the target sectoral trade deficit (Mi - Xi) is

dtgt. . DD., i = 2, 3, 8, 10, 11 (7.5) and hence the production target is

(1 - dtgt.) . DDi, (7.6) and the desired capacity is

K.= ak. . (1 - dtgt.) . DD. - a (7.7) 1 1 1 1 1.

2.46 The investment required in these sectors is thus:

ICLAIM. = d. . FKi(-I) + (1 - dtgt.) . ak. DD. (DD./DD.(-1) -1)

+ [(1 - dtgti) . DDi - a.) . ak. (ak./ak. (-1)]

+ ak [(M. - X.) - dtgt. DD.]. (7.8)

2.47 The first expression on the right-hand side is again replacement investment. The second and third terms determine the investment required to increase production capacity. The last term corrects any deviation between the actual and desired trade balances in the current period.

2.48 For machinery, textiles and clothing, and other manufacturing, investment allocation depends on export targets, set in relation to an aggregate of manufactured exports, XMFD: - 17 -

XMFD= X + X + C +X (7.9) 9 11 12 13

With the export target expressed as a fraction xtgti of XMFD, the key term of the investment allocation equation is:

xtgt . XMFD + (M - mshare. DD.) . i = 9, 12, 13 (7.10)

2.49 It also includes the excess of imports above the required minimum. (This is necessary to prevent these sectors from becoming Large net importers, even though simultaneouslyachieving their export targets.) From this foreign trade target, an output target is derived (by use of the material balance equation), namely:

(1 - mshare.) . DDi+ xtgt XMFD (7.11) from which in turn desired capacity is derived as:

K.= ak. . [(1 - mshare.) . DDi + xtgti * XMFD] - ai (7.12)

Therefore, the investment allocation equation can be written as

INEED. = . FK.(-1) 1 1

+ ak. . [(1 - mshare.) . DDi . (DD./DD.(-1) -1) I 1 . 1 1

+ xtgti . XMFD . (XMFD/XMFD(-l) -1)]

+ tl - mshare.) . DDi + xtgt. . XMFD - a.) . aki . [ak /ak. (-1)]

+ (xtgt .XMFD - Xi+ M.- mshare. DD.) (7.13)

2.50 The first term on che right-hand side is replacement investment. The middle terms determine the investment required to increase capacity in accordance with the export target. The last term corrects the current deviation of actual exports from the export target.

2.51 The allocations of invectment to the various sectors must sum exactly to the total investment available, IN: this is achieved by making investment in the three export target sectors a residual (i.e., giving all other sectors a prior claim). It is also necessary to damp the allocation of investment to prevent oscillations. This is done in two ways. First, the error correction terms are damped, by making the adjustment in each period only a fraction of the current deviation. Second, the actual allocation of investment among sectors is damped by making their investment shares depend both on their current investment requirements (governed by the above equations) and on their existing capital stock shares:

K.(-l) ICLAIM. ishr. K( ) + (I i = 1, 2,...,20 (7.14) . K(-I) IN - 18 -

2.52 Given the allocation of investment among sectors, and the division of investment in each sector between fixed and circulating capital (explained earlier), sectoral fixed (FKi), circulating (WKi), and hence total (Ki) capital stocks are then updated:

FK. = FI./PK + (1 - 6.) FK.(-1) (7.15) 1 1 1 1 WK. = SK. /PK + WK.(-1) (7.16) 1 1 1.

K. = FK. + WK. (7.17) 1 1 1 where PK is the price index for capital goods, calculated as

PK = (1 - SKSHR) lb iP + SKSHR . PBAR. (7.18)

The b; are the shares of different sectors of origin in fixed investment, and

SKSHR As the ratio of circulating capital investment (SK) to total investment (IN).

Supplementary Energy Equations

2.53 The specificationof certain equations in the energy sectors differs from that in other sectors. In particular, the input-output coefficients governing use of fuel oil and coal are endogenous, rather than exogenous, in most sectors. Total fuel use (including crude oil as well as fuel oil and coal) in each sector is governed by exogenous coefficients (AFUELi), but its composition varies according to the availability of crude oil for fuel (governed by exogenous coefficients),and of fuel oil, which depends on domestic production and exogenously specified exports and imports. Use of coal adjusts to make up any deficit between total fuel requirements on the one hand and availability of crude and fuel oil on the other. (A common ratio of coal to fuel oil is assumed in most sectors.)

2.54 The incremental capital-output ratio and the fuel use coefficient in electricity both depend on the ratio (HYDSHR) of hydro (and nuclear) to total generating capacity.

2.55 It should be mentioned that the energy demand projections presented in Annex C were not derived directly from the multisectoral model, but from a more detailed supplementary model calibrated in physical units (rather than in value terms). However, the sectoral and aggregate output growth rates from the multisectoralmodel projections were an important input into the supplementaryenergy projections,whose results were in turn used to improve the accuracy of the multisectoral model projections. Some minor discrepancies between the two sets of projections remain, but in general there is a high degree of consistency. - 19 -

3. BASE YEAR DATA

3.01 The projections alL start from 1981, the latest year for which a complete set of che necessary data could be compiled. rhe single most important ingredient of the base year data is an input-output table, including, in addition to intersectoral flows, the sectoral composition of all final demand vectors (public consumption, household consumption, fixed investment, circulating investment, exports and imports), as well as sectoral gross and net output. The table used is presented in Annex E (Appendix Table C.2), which also explains how it was estimated from published Chinese statistics and other sources. It follows SNA (Western-style)accounting principles. Base year input-output coefficients were calculated directly from the intersectoral flows.

3.02 The division of sectoral net output (and national income) in the model between "wages", "profits", and "rent" was based on the data for various types of income contained in the estimated input-output table, although it represents a considerable simplificationof reality. "Rent" is the sum of housing depreciation, imputed net rent on owner-occupied housing, and the actual net rent of rented housing (which is negative), where net rent is defined as the return to capital after allowing for depreciation and maintenance expenses. "Wages" are in effect all household income other than imputed rent, including wages proper, income from self-employment (especially in agriculture), and estimated bonuses and benefits paid by enterprises out of profits. They were made to conform approximately with published information on relative earnings per worker in the various sectors. "Profits" is the residual: in effect the income of enterprises and government, it includes depreciation, interest, and industrial and commercial tax, as well as profits proper.

3.03 Another important ingredient of the base year data is sectoral capital stocks (fixed and circulating); the estimates used are presented and explained in Annex E (Appendix Table E.1). A third important ingredient is sectoral employment data; the estimates used are also presented and explained in Annex E (Appendix D).

3.04 The base year ratios between world prices and domestic prices (CFX. and CFMi, presented in Table 4.7) were mainly estimated by dividing sectoral' exports and imports in the input-output table (which had been adjusted to domestic prices) into corresponding official Chinese estimates expressed in dollars. Export losses and import losses in the base year are in principle zero (such losses are contained in the profits of the commerce sector); the variables XLOSS and MLOSS thus measure changes in trade losses from base year levels, caused by alterations in domestic prices, world prices, and the composition of trade. In practice, XLOSS and MLOSS in the base year of the projections are not exactly zero, partly because some of the estimated CFX- and CFMH were adjusted to make them more reasonable, partly because the base year simulated values of exports and imports differ slightly from their actual values. - 20 -

4. QUADRUPLE, MODERATE, BALANCE: ASSUMPTIONS

4.01 Three main projections - QUADRUPLE, MODERATE, and BALANCE - are introduced in Chapter 2 of the Main Report, which also states and explains their main assumptions in broad outLine. These assumptions are presented and explained in more detail below. It should be emphasized (a) that the empirical basis for aLmost all these assumptions could be improved by further research, both on China and on other countries, and (b) that the assumptions are often inevitably somewhat arbitrary, even given a good empirical founda- tion. The projections based on these assumptions should therefore be regarded as quite preliminary in character.

Incremental Capital-OutputRatios

4.02 The values assumed in the three projections are in Table 4.1 (ratios of circulating to total capital are in Table 4.8). Considering QUADRUPLE first, the values for crops (the exponents of the production function), animal husbandry, and the energy sectors (including petroleum refining) are all direct, albeit rough, estimates based on World Bank project experience in China and elsewhere. (Further information on investment requirements in agriculture and energy is in Chapter 4 of the Main Report and in Annexes B and C.) The estimate for coal is high; it should probably be thought of as including some coal-related transport investment.

4.03 In other sectors, the starting point was the ratio in 1981 of the estimated sectoral capital stock to sectoral gross output value. In the manufacturing sectors, in construction, and in miscellaneous services, this ratio is used directly - the assumption being that capital-outputratios will be the same in the future as they have been on average in the past. In transport, however, the ratio was increased, because of past underinvestment, to a value that would be more normal by internationalstandards. In commerce, the ratio was reduced, on the assumption that reform of the system of economic management would cause stocks of unsaleable goods to be smaller in the future than in the past. In education and health, and in public administration and defense, the 1981 ratio was gradually doubled over the period 1981-2000; this was done to ensure a reasonable allocation of investment to these sectors, given the slow rate of increase in their gross output (which is hard to measure, but is closely related to their employment levels). In housing, the incremental capital-output ratio is simply the 1981 housing capital stock divided by estimated 1981 gross rent (including the imputed rent of owner- occupied housing).

4.04 In MODERATE, the incremental capital-outputratios in the manufacturing sectors and in construction were all boosted by 40%. This causes the average capital-outputratios in these sectors to increase - at rates that on average are rather similar to those observed in the same sectors in the Soviet - 21 -

Table 4.1: INCREMENTAL CAPITAL-OUTPUTRATIOS (akj)

QUADRUPLE MODERATE BALANCE

1. Crops /a /a /a 2. Animal husbandry 2.00 2.00 2.00 3. Metallurgy 1.32 1.85 1.22 4. Electricity /b /b /b 5. Coal 5.00 5.00 5.00 6. Petroleum extraction 10.50 10.50 10.50 7. Petroleum refining 1.30 1.30 1.30 71. Fuel oil - - - 72. Distillates - - - 8. Chemicals 0.82 1.15 0.74 9. Machinery 1.38 1.93 1.18 10. Building materials 1.21 1.69 1.11 11. Food processing 0.30 0.42 0.26 12. Textiles and clothing 0.31 0.43 0.25 13. Other manufacturing 0.74 1.04 0.66 14. Construction 0.32 0.45 0.29 15. Transport 4.00 4.00 4.00 16. Commerce 3.46 3.46 2.09 17. Miscellaneous services 0.58 0.58 0.46 18. Education and health /c /c /c 19. Public administration and defense /d /d /d 20. Housing 14.26 14.26 14.26

/a Coefficient values in crop production function were B.,= 0.30 and B2 = 0.35 in all three projections.

/b Determined as [9.92 * HYDSHR + 5.39 * (1-HYDSHR)].

/c Increases steadily from 0.63 in 1981 to 1.26 in 2000.

/d Increases steadily from 4.89 in 1981 to 9.74 in 2000. - 22 -

Union in 1959-72.11 In other sectors, the same ratios as in QUADRUPLE were used.

4.05 In BALANCE, some incremental capital-outputratios were set lower than in QUADRUPLE. In the manufacturing sectors, in construction, and in miscellaneous services, incremental circulating capital requirements are reduced to 70X of their levels in QUADRUPLE (fixed capital requirements are unchanged). In commerce, circulating capital requirementsare reduced to 31% of the level assumed in QUADRUPLE (25% of their 1981 level), but fixed capital requirementsare tripled; total capital requirements in commerce decline significantly,because of the high ratio of circulating to fixed capital. rn other sectors, the same values as in QUADRUPLE were used. These specific assumptions were not based on detailed international comparisons; but the resulting aggregate incremental capital-outputratio conforms reasonably well with international experience.

Energy Use

4.06 The assumed changes in the coefficients governing use of various forms of energy are set out in Table 4.2. (For convenience, Table 4.3 shows the assumed composition of refined petroleum products use in 1981, including a rough breakdown of distillate use in industrial sectors between own-account trucks and other uses; only the total is given in the input-output table in Annex E.) These energy coefficient changes were based on a fairly detailed study of the potential for energy saving in China, in light of international experience, reported in Annex C. The estimates in Annex C are in the form of ranges; the values in Table 4.2 are the mid-points of the respective ranges, and were used in MODERATE and BALANCE, as well as in QUADRUPLE. In a few cases, the energy coefficient changes shown in Table 4.2 do not correspond exactly with those underlying the projections in Annex C, which were revised to take advantage of information that became available at a late stage in preparing the report.

Other Input-Output Coefficients

4.07 The changes assumed in other input-outputcoefficients in QUADRUPLE and MODERATE are set out in Table 4.4. (Blanks indicate that the coefficients concerned were assumed to remain constant.) The assumptions were derived mainly from studying inter-temporalchanges in input-output coefficients in various countries covered by the World Bank's "Sources of Growth" reselych project, including Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, and Yugoslavia.- Studies of changing input-output relationships in the US and Soviet economies

1/ S. Urata, "Economic Growth and Structural Change in the Soviet Economy: 1959-72", World Bank Development Research Department, Discussion Paper No. 109, October 1984.

2/ RPO 671-32. 23

Table 4.2: CHANCES IN ENERGY USE COEFFICIENTS (Z change per year)

Elec- All Distillates Distillates Crude Fuel tricity fuelle (Trucks) (Other) oil/gas oil

1. Crops -1.00 -0.50 - -0.15 0.00 0.00 2. Animal husbandry -1.00 -0.50 - -0.15 0.00 0.00 3. Metallurgy -0.80 -3.10 -0.45 -2.75 -9.00 /b 4. Electricity 0.05 -0.98 -0.45 -4.11 -30.00 -16.85 5. Coal 1.50 1.40 -0.45 3.85 0.00 -5.30 6. Petroleum extraction 0.00 -1.00 -0.45 0.35 -1.10 0.00 7. Petroleum refining -0.56 -0.69 -0.45 - -0.64 /c 71. Fuel oil - - - - 72. Distillates - - - - 8. Chemicals -3.30 -5.00 -0.45 -1.05 /a /d 9. Machinery 0.80 -2.50 -0.45 -1.05 -9.00 7 10. Building materials 0.10 -1.20 -0.45 0.35 -9.00 7i 11. Food processing 2.60 -1.80 -0.45 0.35 -9.00 /b 12. Textiles and clothing 3.00 -2.70 -0.45 0.35 -9.00 7i 13. Other manufacturing 1.00 -1.40 -0.45 -0.15 -9.00 Ti 14. Construction 0.00 -1.40 - -0.15 -9.00 0.00 15. Transport 7.00 -5.40 - 1.15 -9.00 -0.80 16. Commerce 0.00 -1.90 - 0.35 -9.00 lb 17. Miscellaneous services 0.00 -1.90 - 0.35 -9.00 /b 18. Education and health 0.00 -1.90 - 0.35 -9.00 7/ 19. Public administration and defense 0.00 0.00 - 0.35 -9.00 /b 20. Housing 0.00 0.00 - 0.35 -1.80 /b

/a Use as fuel (43% of use in 1981) declines at 7.3% p.a.; use as feedstock (57% of use in 1981) decLines at 1.7% p.a. /b Endogenously determined. Th Endogenously determined, but coal use set equal to zero. 7T Use as fuel declines at 1.7% p.a.; use as feedstock increases at 1.9% p.a. 7T Total fuel use coefficients (AFUEL-) in each sector in the base year were calculated as weighted sums of the estimated input-output coefficients for use of crude oil (excluding nonfuel uses), fuel oil (again excluding nonfuel uses), and coal. The weights were estimates of the relative calorie/price ratios for each form of fuel (12.7 for crude oil, 26.0 for fuel oil, and 26.7 for coal). - 24 -

Table 4.3: ASSUMED COMPOSITION OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS USE, 1981 (Billion yuan)

Fuel Distillates Distillates Total oil (Trucks) (Other)

1. Crops 2.74 0.00 /a 2.74 2. Animal husbandry 0.65 0.00 /a 0.65 3. Metallurgy 0.56 0.21 0.22 0.13 4. Electricity 0.72 0.45 0.09 0.18 5. Coal 0.12 0.02 0.08 0.02 6. Petroleum extraction 0.18 0.00 0.05 0.13 7. Petroleum refining 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.00 71. Fuel oil - - 72. Distillates - -- - 8. Chemicals 2.43 0.20/b 0.28 1.95 9. Machinery 0.82 0.09 0.52 0.21 10. Building materials 0.16 0.06 0.10 0.00 11. Food processing 0.39 0.01 0.33 0.05 12. Textiles and clothing 0.74 0.19 0.50 0.05 13. Other manufacturing 0.44 0.11 0.22 0.11 14. Construction 0.45 0.00 /a 0.45 15. Transport 2.59 0.06 /a 2.53 16. Commerce 0.00 0.00 /a 0.00 17. Miscellaneous services 0.00 0.00 /a 0.00 18. Education and health 0.02 0.02 /a 0.00 19. Public administration and defense 0.00 0.00 /a 0.00 20. Housing 0.00 0.00 /a 0.00

/a Distillates broken into own-account truck and other uses only in industry. lb Of which use for fuel 80%, use for feedstock 20%.

Note: These figures do not accurately represent actual expenditures on petroleum products. This is partly because estimated expenditures were adjusted by imposing the convenient but incorrect assumption that all sectors pay the same price for distillates. Moreover, the sectoral breakdowns of fuel oil use, and of use of distillates in own-account trucks, are quite arbitrary. Table 4.4: CHANGES IN NONENERGY INPUT-OUTPUT COEFFICIENTS 1981-2000: QUADRUPLE AND MODERATE (% p.a.)

Sectors: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

1. Crops -2.2 -4,6 - - -4.2 - - -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -1.6 -2.8 -4.2 -4,2 - -1.6 - -4.2 - - 2. Animal husbandry - -2.2 ------4.2 -4.2 - 0.2 -2.8 -4.2 - - -1.6 - - 1. Metallurgy /a - - -3.0 - - - - -2.0 - 6.0 - - 1.6 -8.0 - - - -

8. Chemicals /a 22.9 4.5 - - - - 1.0 1.0 2,0 3.0 6.0 3.7 1.5 - - - 2.2/b - - 9. Hnchinery 7a 7.8 - 1.0 1.0 - - - 1.0- 0 - 2.0 - . - - - 7.67 - - 10. Building materials 7a. ------11. Food processing 7ai 20.6 ------5.0 - - 3.3 - -5,0 - - - - 2.0/b - - 12. Textiles 7 ------2 27- - - 13. Other manufacturing 7a------2.2 - - - 3.77b - - 14. Construction 7a ------15. Transport a ------16. Commerce 7a------17. Misc, services Za------______18. Education and health ------19. Pub. admin.& defense - - - - - ______- ______20. Housing ------

/a Endogenously determined; increased at 2.6% p.a. in QUADRUPLE, 3.5% p.a. in MODERATE.

/b Increasing coefficients needed to boost materials use in education and health, since gross output grows slowly. - 26 - were also consulted.3/ Where a clear pattern of change was discerned in these other countries, the same pattern was assumed for China, using rough averages of the rates of change observed eLsewhere. Where no clear pattern of change was discernible, the coefficient concerned was assumed to remain constant.

4.08 In BALANCE, some of these coefficients were modified, for reasons explained in Chapter 2 of the Main Report. The modifications are summarized in Table 4.5. The coefficients governing use of commerce and miscellaneous services in other sectors were increased, on the basis of comparisons with the input-output tables for the countries mentioned above, as well as the other input-output tables referred to in Annex E. Data for these service sectors in other countries, especially developing ones, are subject to a wide margin of error (partly because the inputs of "commerce" are in fact the estimated trade margins on the inputs purchased by the sectors concerned); the assumed increases in Table 4.5 should thus not be regarded as particularly precise - hence their assumed uniformity across sectors.

4.09 Compensating reductions were made in manufactured input coefficients. This was done quite mechanically: in each sector, all these coefficients were scaled down equiproportionately,by an amount just sufficient to offset the increases in the service sector coefficients in each sector. The empirical basis for this compensating reduction - derived from the data and studies mentioned above - is partly chat over time in other countries, the observed increase in service input coefficients appears to have been more or less cancelled out by a decline in material input coefficients, partly that - in cross section - countries with higher service input coefficientsdo not seem to have higher total intermediate-to-gross-outputratios (if anything, the opposite pattern is observed). However, because of the approximate nature of the assumed service input coefficient increases, and because of the mecha- nical way in which the manufactured input coefficients were reduced (the agriculture and energy direct coefficients were left untouched for simplicity, although there are of course indirect reductions in agriculture and energy use), no particular significance should be attached to the differing pattern of changes in manufactured input coefficients across sectors in Table 4.5.

Consumer Demand Elasticities

4.10 The assumed income elasticities of consumer demand are presented in Table 4.6. In QUADRUPLE and MODERATE, the elasticities for crops, animal husbandry and processed food were based on the scenario in Annex B, Table 2.1 (with 5.5% per capita income growth), with additional information and assumptions concerning prices and processing. (Two variants on QUADRUPLE, discussed in Chapter 3 of the Main Report, assumed somewhat different food

3/ A.P. Carter, Structural Change in the American Economy (Harvard University Press), 1970; and D.M. Calick, G.D. Guill, B.L. Kostinsky and V.G. Treml, "The 1972 Input-Output Table and Changing Structure of the Soviet Economy," in Soviet Economy in a Time of Change, a compendium of papers submitted to the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States (U.S. Government Printing Office), 1979, Volume 1, pp. 423-71. - 27 -

Table 4.5: INPUT-OUTPUT COEFFICIENTS IN BALANCE (Value in 2000 as ratio of value in 2000 in QUADRUPLE) /a

Manufactured Commerce Misc. services inputs /b inputs Xc inputs /d

1. Crops - - 2. Animal husbandry 0.88 1.75 Jd 3. Metallurgy 0.87 1.75 7 4. Electricity /e 1.75 7 5. Coal 0.77 1.75 7 6. Petroleum extraction 0.66 1.75 7 7. Petroleum refining /e 1.75 Td 71. Fuel oil - 72. Distillates - - 8. Chemicals 0.85 1.75 /d 9. Machinery 0.90 1.75 /d 10. Building materials 0.63 1.75 7 11. Food processing 0.81 1.75 7 12. Textiles and clothing 0.92 1.75 Td 13. Other manufacturing 0.85 1.75 7 14. Construction 0.92 1.75 7 15. Transport 0.54 1.75 /d 16. Commerce 0.83 1.75 /d 17. Miscellaneous services 0.51 1.75 7i 18. Education & health 0.94 1.75 7 19. Public admin. & defense - - 20. Housing 0.54 1.75 /d

/a Coefficients other than those in this table are the same in BALANCE as in QUADRUPLE and MODERATE.

/b A03i, A08i, A09i, A10i, Alli, A12i, A13i.

/c A16 .

Id A17-; these were all set higher in BALANCE than in QUADRUPLE by the same absolute amount, namely 0.03.

/e These coefficients become slightly negative (they are very small in- QUADRUPLE). Table 4.6: CONSUIMERDEMAND ELASTICITIES (cde 1 )

OUADRUPLE QUADRUPLE,(less QUJADRUJPLE(less and MODERATE BALANCE meat variant) food variant) 1981-90 1991-2000 1981-90 1991-2000 1981-90 1991-2000 1981-90 1991-2000

1. Crops 0.38 0.30 0.35 0.25 0.39 0.32 0.27 0.22 2. Animalhusbandry 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.10 1.05 3. Metallurgy ------4. Electricity 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 5. Coal 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0 6. Petroleumextraction 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 7. Petroleum refining 71. Fuel oil ------72. Distillates 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 8. Chemicals 1.30 1.40 1.25 1.25 1.33 1.42 1.50 1.55 9. Machinery 1.40 1.50 1.30 1.30 1.43 1.52 1.60 1.60 10. Building materials ------11. Food processing 1.28 1.28 1.25 1.20 1.28 1.28 1.15 1.10 12. Textilesand clothing 1.05 1.10 1.00 1.00 1.08 1.12 1.20 1.30 13. Other manufacturing 1.44 1.55 1.25 1.25 1.47 1.57 1.55 1.60 14. Construction ------15. Transport 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 16. Commerce 1.06 1.10 1.20 1.60 1.09 1.12 1.30 1.40 17, Miscellaneousservices 1.30 1.35 2.00 2.10 1.33 1.37 1.50 1.55 18. Educationand health 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.15 1.20 19. Public administration and defense ------20. Housing 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 - 29 - demand elasticities - in one case less meat and more crops, in the other less food altogether. These elasticities are also shown in Table 4.6.) In all the projections, food demand elasticities are assumed to be higher in the 1980s than in the 1990s (vice versa for other elasticities); this is because it was assumed that, because of the surge in agricultural production caused by the introductionof the production responsibility system, crop production would grow faster in the 1980s than in che 1990s, making it rational to concentrate food consumption increases in the 1980s.

4.11 The consumer demand eLasticities for the various forms of energy, and for transport, were chosen to be approximately consistent with the projections and assumptions in Annexes C and F. The same elascicities were used in all projections.

4.12 In other sectors, the consumer demand elasticities in QUADRUPLE were based loosely on elasticities in other developin countries, which are broadly consistent with estimated elasticities in China.- The correspondence is loose partLy because the sectoral categories are not exactly the same, partly because the elasticities all had to be adjusted somewhat to ensure that their total, weighted by base year consumer expenditure shares, was unity. In BALANCE, the elasticities for commerce (which includes the trade margin on consumer goods) and miscellaneous services were increased; corresponding reductions were made in the elasticities for food and manufactured goods. The housing elasticity was not changed. In all projections, the propensity to save out of household income was assumed to be 10%.

Foreign Trade and Capital

4.13 Table 4.7 summarizes most of the assumptions regarding foreign trade, which were the same in alL three projections, except where noted. The minimum export and import shares in each sector are based partLy on the actual shares in the base year, partly on rough assumptions about China's future foreign trade policies. The same applies to the target sectoral trade deficits and export share targets. In certain sectors - animal husbandry, building materials, processed food - China is assumed to aim at exactly balanced trade. In metallurgy and chemicals, however, the assumed target is a trade deficit, partly to reduce domestic energy consumption. The export share targets reflect the assumed slow growth of textile exports due to world market constraints,and the consequent need to increase the shares of other manufactured exports, especially machinery.

4/ The two main sources for other countries were: I.B. Kravis, A. Heston and R. Summers, World Product and Income (Johns Hopkins University Press), 1982, especially p. 358; and C. Lluch, A. Powell and R. Williams, Patterns in Household Demand and Saving (Oxford University Press), 1977. Estimates for China are reported in J. van der Gaag, "Empirical Studies of Household Consumption in China," World Bank Staff Working Paper, No. 701. - 30 -

Table 4.7: FOREIGN TRADE COEFFICIENTS /a

xsharei msharei dtgti xtgti CFXi CFMi WPINDXi/&

1. Crops /b /c - - 0.80 0.63 5.5 2. Animal husbandry 0.020 0.005 0.00 - 0.80 0.80 6.3 3. Metallurgy 0.020/f 0.065/f 0.10/d - 0.63 0.64 5.7 4. Electricity 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 5. Coal 0.010 0.005 - - 1.09 1.09 4.9 6. PetroLeum extraction 0.000 0.000 - - 2.13 2.13 7.3 7. Petroleum refining ------71. Fuel oil 0.000 0.000 - - 3.50 3.50 7.3 72. Distillates 0.010 0.010 - - 0.98 0.98 7.3 8. Chemicals 0.030/f 0.070/f 0.05/d - .0.53 0.58 7.1 9. Machinery 0.0387f 0.0807? - 0.50/e 0.52 0.64 5.6 10. Building materials 0.005 0.005 0.00 - 0.63 1.00 5.6 11. Food processing 0.040 0.020 0.00 0.05/e 0.57 0.63 5.6 12. Textiles and clothing 0.050 0.020 - 0.207e 0.49 0.64 5.6 13. Other manufacturing 0.070/f 0.020/f - 0.25Te 0.58 0.63 5.6 14. Construction 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 15. Transport 0.076 0.034 - - 0.39/h 0.14/h 5.6 16. Commerce 0.106 0.042 - - o.OO/h0.00Th 5.6 17. Miscellaneous services 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 18. Education & health 0.000 0.000 - - - - -

19. Public admin. & defense 0.000 0.000 - - - - - 20. Housing 0.000 0.000 - - _ _

/a Values apply to years after 1981; in 1981, actual values were used.

/b Increases from 0.0125 in 1981 to 0.0171 in 2000.

/c Increases from 0.015 in 1981 to 0.0200 in 2000.

_d Moves to this value over five years.

/e Hoves to this value over nine years.

/f These coefficients increase gradually in BALANCE: in 2000, xshare3 = 0.05, mshare3 = 0.095, xshare8 = 0.06, mshare8 = 0.10, xshare9 = 0.078, mshare9 = 0.12, xsharel3 = 0.11, msharel3 = 0.06. i Average annual percentage increase 1981-2000.

/h Dollar trade accountsare f.o.b./c.i.t.;hence transportand trade margins disappear into other categories,although other transportrevenues and outlays remain. - 31 -

4.14 Both exports and imports of fuel oil were constrained to be zero (see paras. 2.36, 2.53). The projected trade balance in coal thus reflects the (positive or negative) gap between fuel demand and fuel production, given any particular assumption about the rate of growth of coal production (para. 2.07). An alternative approach would have been to fix coal exports and imports, and to let coal production adjust endogenously to the level required by demand.

4.15 As regards foreign borrowing, it is assumed in all three projections that the target ratio of foreign debt to exports (small f) rises gradually, reaching 0.75 by 1993 and remaining constant thereafter. However, because actual borrowing moves only gradually toward this target (because the adjustment is lagged, and damped to prevent oscillations),the target is not attained by 2000 in any of these projections. The interest rate on foreign debt was assumed to be 8%.

Other Assumptions

4.16 Table 4.8 summarizes some of the other assumptions underlying these projections. The depreciation rates are in line with those currently used in China, though rather low by international standards. The sectoral relative "wage" and "profit"fatios are simply derived from the base year data; they were held constant 5 so that projected relative price movements would reflect long-term trends rather than near-term price adjustments (although the latter could easily be incorporated into the projections). The shares of circulating capital in sectoral total (fixed plus circulating) capital stocks were likewise derived directly from che base year data. The rates of increase in sectoral labor productivity were based loosely on a combination of past Chinese experience and trends in other rapidly growing countries. The projected increase in the total labor force between 1981 and 2000 was based on a breakdown of the population by age and sex (both currently and projected into the future), together with assumptions about educational enrollment and other factors affecting participation rates. Sectoral shares in fixed investment by sector of origin and in public consumption (not shown in the table) were assumed to remain the same as in the 1981 input-output table in Annex E.

5/ Except that the initially low relative wage in education and health was assumed to rise gradually to the same level as in public administration and defense. Table 4.8: OTHER COEFFICIENTS

Depre- Circulating ciation Relative Relative capital share (%) Labor coefficient rate wage profit OUADRUPLE (annual % decline) /a (%) ratio /b ratio /b and MODERATE BALANCE QUADRUPLE MODERATE BALANCE

1. Crops 1 0.42 0.29 17.6 17.6 - - - 2. Animal husbandry 3 0.42 0.22 37.0 37.0 3 3 3 3. Metallurgy 4 - - 26.8 20.4 5 4 5 4. Electricity 4 0.83 1.28 3.8 3.8 5 4 5 5. Coal 4 1.05 0.40 13.1 13.1 3 2 3 6. Petroleum extraction 4 1.07 2.99 19.2 19.2 5 4 5 7. Petroleum refining 4 1.10 4.26 23,4 23.4 5 4 5 71. Fuel oil ------72. Distillates. ------8. Chemicals 4 0.83 1.41 32.1 24.9 5 4 5 9. Machinery 4 0.80 0.70 48.1 39.4 5 4 5 10. Building materials 4 0.65 0.70 27.5 21.0 5 4 5 11. Food processing 4 0.76 3.31 47.4 38.7 4 3 4 12. Textiles and clothing 4 0.77 3.24 59.5 50,7 4 3 4 13. Other manufacturing 4 0.79 0.86 35.1 27.5 4 3 4 14. Construction 4 0.90 1.48 33.3 25,9 3 2 3 15. Transport 4 0.99 0.41 5.0 5.0 3 2 3 16. Commerce 3 0.77 0.35 89.2 46.2 3 2 1 17. Miscellaneous services 3 0.84 4.82 71.4 63.6 2 1 1 18. Education & health 3 /c /d 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 19. Public admin. & defense 3 0.74 Id 0.0 0.0 0 0 0

20. Housing 2 0.73 _e 0.0 0.0 0 0 0

/a Or, annual percentage increase in labor productivity. Tb Relative to sector 3. c~ Rises from 0.58 in 1981 to 0.74 in 2000. 7T Depreciation rate used. 7e Depreciation-plus-net-rentalrate of 5.5% used. -33-

5. QUADRUPLE, MODERATE, BALANCE: RESULTS

5.01 The main results of these three projections are presented and discussed in Chapter 2 of the Main Report. The following tables contain more detailed results, including 20-sector breakdowns of some of the main variables. Additional details of the results of QUADRUPLE and BALANCE are to be found in Appendices C and D of this annex, which contain, among other things, the MPS (Chinese-style) national accounts variables. - 34 -

QUADRUPLE

TABLEI:KEY GROWTH RATES (% P.A. AT 1981 PRICES)

GDP GDP PER NMP GVIAO EXPORTS IMPORTS CAPITA mUUmaSaUaUw"--BBsm amam" am amlamma mamamamam ma.aflUUU UUmmamUUSU UommuWsafl UaUmUm USs 1981-1990 6.83 5.77 6.56 7.43 8.83 8.36 1990-2000 6.31 5.26 6.04 6.98 9.16 7.36 1981-2000 6.55 5.5 6.29 7.19 9. 7.84

QUADRUPLE

TABLE2:GOP. AND DEMAND COMPOSITION

GDP GDP INVEST- HOUSEHOLD GOVT EXPORTS/ FOREIGN (BILLIONS PERCAPITA MENT/GDP CONSUMP- CONSUMP- GDP (%) TRADE OF 1981 (1981 Us (%) TION/GOP TION/GOP DEFICIT/ YUAN) DOLLARS) (%) (X GOP (X .mmaaaaa*aaaaaainmamaaa ammwammammamamaammusam mammmamusasmauaa ammmaaaaa UNamUmmuUU maumammaa 1981 457.68 300.74 28.48 55.93 15.3 8.36 -0.29 1990 829.13 498.15 29.82 55.75 15.25 8.95 0.82 2000 1528.57 -831.41 29.42 55.75 15.25 11.03 0.42

QUADRUPLE

TABLE3:SECTORAL SHARES OF GDP (%)

aamaamaaaaammas^amamm ammammamma mamamammam mamw"ama aamSmmSSaSmaamama as-"" AGRICUL LIGHT HEAVY INFRA- SERVICES -TURE INDUSTRY .INDUSTRY STRUCTURE mamammamamaaaaasmammam mamaama.a .ma mam amamamam munama-mama amamam 1981 34.66 15.01 24.03 10.8 15.51 1990 29.35 15.55 26.49 12.49 16.13 2000 25.54 15.34 27.65 14.29 17.18 mmmmamaaaaaamammmamamm aaamamaamm amamamaaa ammams mama" mamma mamma aaaaaaaaa

QUADRUPLE

TABLE4:GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH (% P.A. AT 1981 PRICES)

| 1981-1990 I 4.52 85.6 85.4 1 7.68 6.11 1 1990-2000 1 4.56 I 7.31 I 7.83 I 6.98 I 5.75 1 1981-2000 I 4.54 I 7.92 I 8.1 I 7.31 I 5.92 I 1======I=====1======I======I======1=I===== - 35 -

QUADRUPLE -TVIiLEaSECTONAL EMPLOYMENTSHAmqS (S

*uuUUUUuumuu EUU.UUU *UUUUU UUU*U. umUuuuuUmU *UUUUUUUU" muZB"smummuMuma u-sws-.iuuuu* ume.m AGRECUL- LIGHT HEAVV INFRA- SERVICES EMPLOYNT POPULATH TUBE INDUSTRY INDUSTRV STRUCTURE (MILLION) (MILLION) 1351 69.35 6.03 9.07 4.67 10.29 452.16 *S.14 1330 63.34 7.54 10.43 5.56 12.24 529.5 1082.3 2000 Sl.97 8.50 11.25 7.04 14.3 310 1.1 ss"RssRs^ZRsSZ""B""- "gSwa"0s...... - as"-g-=F ss^-

QUADRUPLE

TABLE6:SECTORAL CAPITAL STOCK SHARES (.)

AGRICUL- I LIGHT HEAVV I INFRA- I SERVICES+I iTURE | INDUSTRY INDUSTRV I STRUCTUREI HOUSING I 1981 ininesc=s-9.8l1 IuUu-u-..umu 7.9 UuU|astw=-===c-3==-==u|==g=g==sem|29.53 1 14.09 1 38.a88 1190 9.16 7.76 31.79 16.18 35.11 . 2000 I 8.82 I 7.67 I 33.39 I 18.08 I 32.03 I uuuuuuumusumu=.u===sI =====--wsI -=-s=g==Is--=========@===== Ic=~======I

QUADRUPLE

TABLE7:HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION SHARES (S)

QUADRUPLE

TABLE8:BALANCE OF PAVMENTS (BILLION U.S. DOLLARS)

QUADRUPLE TABLE9:SECTORAL EXPORT SHARES 00

1981 I 10.7= 39.7 =22.85 2.45 4.27 1990 1 13.64 42.711 7.48 31.45 4.72 2000 I 7.62 43.63 I 0.92. 42.84 4.99

NOTE: AT WORLD PRICES.

QUADRUPLE

TABLE1O:SECTORAL IMPORT SHARES (%)

| | AGRICUL- I OIL+COAL I MACHINERVI OTHER I INFRASTR+l I TURE I 1 MANUFACT.I SERVICES I ==-======l======l===== 1951 15.88 I 0.54 I 29.17 53.67 I 0.74 1990 14.8 I 7.36 I 28.39 48.76 I 0.7 I 2000 8.37 I 12.39 I 28.74 49.85 1 0.66 I 1======I======I======S=== …]===== NOTE: AT WORLO PRICES.

QUADRUPLE

TABLE11:GROSS OUTPUT (BILLION 1981 VUAN)

I I 1981 I 1990 I 2000 | 1.CROPS I 175.6 | 245.64 I 342.17 i I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 41.6 | 77.8 | 163.07 | I 3.METALLURGV | 45.69 884.89 | 165.27 | I 4.ELECTRICITYV 19.42 I 36.84 I 74.69 | | 5.COAL | 16.62 | 24.41 | 37.43 I | 6.01L EXTRACT I 12.9 | 17.81 | 25.4E | | 7.OIL REFING I 15.02 | 25.4 I 45.55 | 8.CHEMICAL | 60.53 I 131.3 I 300.09 | | 9.MACHINERY i 113.05 | 261.54 | 594.54 I10.BLDG.MATS. I 23.21 | 47.58 | 92.27 | l1l.FOOD PROC. | 70.19 | 155.23 | 342. 1 | 12.TEXTILE I 109.27 | 218.21 | 404.75 I | 13.OTHER MFG. 49.9 I 108.38 I 229.34 1 | 14.CONSTRUCT. | 75.05 | 146.77 2281.71 | I 15.TRANSPORT. | 31.11 | 60.84 | 123.52 | | 16.COMMERCE | 52.09 I 98.69 | 191.94 1 | 17.OTH.SERV. I 11.96 1 23.81 I 47.36 | I 18.ED.+HEALTH I 39.41 I 55.22 | 72.03 | 119.PU8L.ADMN. | 9.61 | 11.44 | 14.28 | | 20.HOUSING | 11.21 | 22.84 I 45.07 | I ======I =====I====_I _====I - 37 -

QUADRUPLE TABLE12:SHARES OF GOP (%)

I I 1981 I 1990 I 2000 I I 1-CROPS | 30.6 | 24.66 | 19.81 1 | 2.ANIMAL-KUSB I 4.06 | 4.69 | 5.73 | | 3.METALLURGY | 3.53 | 3.09 | 2.81 1 | 4.ELECTRICITY V 2.56 | 3.7 | 4.78 1 | 5.COAL | 1.83 1 1.64 | 1.49 | | 6-OIL EXTRACT | 1.89 1 3.47 | 4.08 | | 7.OIL REFING | 1.3 | 1.67. 1.91 | | 8.CHEMICAL I 4.35 | 4.5 I 4.79 1 | 9.MACHINERY | 8.91 | 9.88 | 10.54 I | 10.BLDG.MATS. I 2.23 | 2.23 | 2.05 I | ll.FOOD PROC. | 4.06 1 4.3 | 4.51 | | 12.TEXTILE I 7. | 6.79 I 6.07 | | 13.OTHER MFG. I 3.95 | 4.46 | 4.76 1 | 14.CONSTRUCT. | 4.15 | 4.41 | 4.63 | 15.TRANSPORT | 4.09 | 4.38 | 4.88 | 16.COMMERCE I 6.37 I 6.26 | 6.25 | 1t7.OTH.SERV. 22.22 1 2.33 | 2.48 1 I 18.ED.+HEALTH 22.77 | 3.19 | 3.8 | 1l9.PUBL.ADMN. | 2.1 | 2.06 | 2.04 | | 20.HOUSING | 2.05 | 2.3 I 2.61 |

QUADRUPLE

TABLE13:EMPLOYMENT SHARES (C)

I I 1981 11990 I 2000 I I 1.CROPS 1 61.96 | 54.25 | 46.4 | I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB | 7.98 | 9.69 I 12.57 1 I 3.METALLURGY | 0.66 I 0.66 I 0.65 | | 4_ELECTRICITY | 0.26 | 0.26 I 0.27 | 5.COAL 1.03 0.98 0.93 |6.0IL EXTRACT 0.09 | 0.06 | °°S | 7.OIL REFING 0.04 0.04 | 0.03 | 8.CHEMICAL i 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.61 | | 9.MACHINERY | 4.26 | 5.3 | 6.05 | | 10.BLDG.MATS. i 1.8 | 1.98 1 1.93 | I ll.FOOD PROC. 1 0.98 1 1.29 | 1.58 1 | 12.TEXTILE I 2.29 | 2.7 | 2.8 I I 13.0THER MFG. I 2.76 | 3.55 | 4.18 1 I 14.CONSTRUCT. I 2.46 | 3.12 | 3.71 | | 15.TRANSPORT. | 1.95 | 2.48 3.11 | | 16.COMMERCE | 3.22 | 3.96 | 4.77 I | 17.OTH.SERV. I 0.71 I 1 | 1.37 | I 1S.ED.+HEALTH 1 3.91 1 4.68 | 5.12 | l9.PUBL.ADMN.1 | 2.3 | 2.34 | 2.45 | |-20.HOUSING I 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.43 | I I I======l======- 38 -

QUADRUPLE

TABLE14:CAPITAL STOCK SHARES (%)

I ======1======1======I I 1981 1 1990 I 2000 1

|.CROPS1 | 7.21 | 4.98 | 3.54 | 2Z.ANIMAL-HUSB - 2.39 4.18 1 5.28 1 3S.METALLURGV | 5.08 1 4.49 | 4.21 | | 4.ELECTRICITY | 3.55 | 5.64 | 7.36 | | S.COAL I 2.8 2.84 I 2.63 I - | 6.0IL EXTRACT - 1.25 1 2.46 | 2.77 | | 7.0IL REFING | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.88 I | 8.CHEMICAL I 4.19 | 4.38 | 4.84 | | 9.MACHINERY I 13.3 I 14.56 | 15.92 | I 10.BLDG.MATS. | 2.35 I 2.28 | 2.13 | | ll.FOOD PROC. | 1.77 | 1.89 | 2. 1 | 12.TEXTILE | 2.91 | 2.64 | 2.39 | | 13.OTHER MFG. I 3.21 | 3.23 | 3.29 | - 14.CONSTRUCT. | 2.02 | 1.89 I 1.76 | I 15-TRANSPORT. | 8.52 | 8.65 | 8.96 | | 16.COMMERCE | 18.64 1 16.18 I 14.33 1 | 17.OTH.SERV. | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.56 | | 18.ED.+HEALTH | 2.14 1 1.95 | 1.77 | 1l9.PUBL.ADMN. - 4.02 | 3.15 | 2.71 | 1 20.HOUSING | 13.49 | 13.24 | 12.66 | I 21.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) | 1280.35 | 2689.15 | 5539.09 | I I I I

QUADRUPLE

TABLE 15:EXPORT SHARES (%)

1! 1981 1 1990 I 2000 1 1 l.CROPS 1 7.79 | 10.67 I 4.65 2.ANIMAL-HUSB 1 2.94 | 2.97 | 2.97 | 3.METALLURGY I 49 | 2.31 | 2.12 | | 4.ELECTRICITY I 0. I 0. i 0. I 1 5.COAL I 1.6 1 0.48 1 0.37 | | 6.OIL EXTRACT | 14.96 | 6.54 | -0. | | 7.OIL REFING I 6.28 | 0.47 I 0.56 I | 8.CHEMICAL 6.97 | 5.82 | 6.31 | |0.MACHINERY 10.03 | 22.34 | 33.29 | |10.BLDG.MATS. | 0.54 | 0.98 | 1.12 | I ll.FOOD PROC. I 6.71 | 8.12 | 7.87 | | 12.TEXTILE | 23.94 | 20.49 | 16.66 | 13.OTHERM MFG. I 9.05 I 14.1 | 19.1 | | 14.CONSTRUCT. I 0. 0. I 0. | I 15.TRANSPORT. | 4.27 | 4.72 | 4.99 | 16.COMMERCE aO. | 0. | 0. | | 17.OTH.SERV. I 0. | 0. 1 0. I i 18.ED.-HEALTH I 0. | 0. | 0. | I t9.PUBL.ADMN. | 0. | 0. | 0. | | 20.HOUSING | 0. | 0. 0O. | 21.TOTAL (BILL US DOLLARS) | 22.5 1 68.53 1 279.04 | | 22.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) | 38.44 | 82.32 I 197 82 | NOTE:AT WORLD PRICES(IN U.S. DOLLARS) -39-

QUADRUPLE

TABLE16:IMPORT SHARES CS)

1981 1990 1 2000

1.CROPS - 15.88 | 5.31 | 4.61 | I 2.ANIMAL-HUSS -0. | 9.49 I 3.75 I 3.METALLURGY - 9.38 I 12.62 | 12.39 1 I 4.ELECTRICITY I o,.0. I . IO I S.COAL | 0.45 | 6.65 | 7.04 | | 6.OIL EXTRACT 0. I -0. | 1.58 | | 7.0IL REFING | 0.09 | 0.71 | 3.77 I | 8.CHEMICAL I 12.14 | 18.64 I 22.56 | | 9.MACHINERY I 29.17 I 28.39 | 28.74 | I 1O.HLDG.MATS. | -0. 1 0.5 0.44 | | ll.FOOO PROC. | 3.51 | 8.58 | 7.29 | | 12.TEXTILE 119.05 | 5.49 | 4.71 | I 13.OTHER MFG. | 9.58 £ 2.64 | 2.46 | I 14.CONSTRUCT. -0. | 0. I 0. I I 15.TRANSPORT. | 0.74 | 0.7 | 0.66 | | 16.COMMERCE 00. I 0. | a. | | 17.OTH.SERV. | 0. I 0. I 0. I I 18.ED.+HEALTH I 0. | 0. I 0. | 119.PUBL.ADMN. | 0. | O. I a. | 20.HOUSING | 0. 0. o. | Z1TOTAL CBILL US DOLLARS) | 21.71 | 74.83 | 289.63 | | 22.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) | 36.77 1 75.76 1754.17 | NOTE:AT WORLD PRICES(IN U.S. DOLLARS)

QUADRUPLE

TABLE17:PRICE MOVEMENTS

Il 1981 1 1990 I 2000 I

I1.CROPS | 1. | 1.08 | 1.17 | I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 1. 1 1.06 | 1.16 I | 3.METALLURGY I 1. I 0.94 | 0.88 | I 4.ELECTRICITY V 1. 1 1.28 | 1.44 1 5.COAL I 1. I 1.1 | 1.21 I 6.OIL EXTRACT I 1. I 2.01 I 2.91 I I 7.0IL REFING I 1. 1 1.66 | 2.14 | | 8.CHEMICAL | 1. 1 0.95 1 0.89 | | 9.MACHINERY I 1. I 0.92 | 0.85 | I 10.BLDG.MATS. j 1. | 0.94 | 0.88 | I ll.FOOD PROC. | 1. | 1. | 1.02 | | 12.TEXTILE | 1. | 0.94 | 0.91 | | 13.OTHER MFG. | 1. | 0.96 | 0.92 | I 14.CONSTRUCT. 1 1. 1 0.96 | 0.93 | I 15.TRANSPORT. i 1. | 1.05 | 1.12 | I 16.COMMERCE I 1 | 0.96 00.92 | I 17.OTH.SERV. | 1. | 0.97 | 0.97 | I 18.ED.+HEALTH I 1. 1 1.3 I 1.87 | I 19.PUBL.ADMN. | 1. | 1.52 | 2.24 | 1 20.HOUSING I 1. | 1. | 1.06 | | 21.GDP DEFLATOR | 1. | 1. | 1. 1 1======1======1======- 40 -

MODERATE

TABLEl:KEY GROWTH RATES (X P.A. AT 1981 PRICES)

,'- s~.= .. .0 . .. a ...... am.=.m- ..... 0-...... a.... mammas... GDP GDP PER NMP GVIAO EXPORTS IHPORTS CAPITA ***3.uf m...... fl...... in **.fl,wn ...... as ...... 1981-1990 5.6 4.55 5.33 6.23 7.52 7.55 .1990-2000 5.14 4.1 4.89 5.74 6.68 5.61 1981-2000 5.36 4.31 5.1. 5.97 7.08 6.52 ...... - ......

MODERATE

TABLE2:GDP. AND DEMAND COMPOSITION

,...... a...... am ...... GDP GDP INVEST- HOUSEHOLD GOVT EXPORTS/ FOREIGN (BILLIONS PERCAPITA MENT/GOP CONSUMP- CONSUMP- GDP X). TRADE OF 1981 (1981 us (%) TION/GDP TION/GDP DEFICIT/ YUAN) DOLLARS) {X) MX) GDP (%) .---- ..---...... a...... -...... a...... a...... 1981 457.68 300.74 28.48 55.93 15.3 8.36 -0.29 1990 747.35 449.02 29.9 55.75 15.25 9.17 0.9 2000 1233.72 671.04 29.32 55.75 15.25 10.6 0.32 ......

MODERATE

TABLE3:SECTDRAL SHARES OF GDP (X)

j------~=..m ...... -... . wo.... am * ...... AGRICUL LIGHT HEAVY INFRA- SERVICES -TURE INDUSTRY INDUSTRY STRUCTURE ...... a.m...... M ...... a...... 1981 34.66 15.01 24.03 10.8 15.51 1990 29.66 15.86 27.06 11.91 15.52 2000 26.61 15.38 28.6 13.27 16.14 am...... Sa ...... - =&=.a. .. ff......

MODERATE TABLE4:GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH (% P.A. AT 1981 PRICES)

|| AGRICUL- | LIGHT I HEAVY I INFRA- | SERVICES | | I| TURE | INDUSTRYV INDUSTRYV STRUCTURE | I 1981-1990 I 3.6 I 7.17 I 7.21 I 6.47 I 5.03 1990-2000 I 3.71 I 5.87 I 6.62 1 5.82 I 4.7 1981-2000 I 3.65 I 6.48 I 6.9 I 6.13 I 4.86 |======1=====I==1==I====I======1=I ==== I= - 41 -

MODERATE

TABLES:SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT SHARES (I)

| =c======t== | tS-=C== 5 S===== | =====-, j C====U== t==inSw snssg|SSUUUSSUESi | I| AGRICUL- | LIGHT | HEAVY I INFRA- SERVICES ; EMPLOVET| POPULATN | TURE | INDUSTRY | INDUSTRY | STRUCTURE I (MILLION)l (MILLION) I I======| ===2==|======I======s=====I====f=t======2=2=2=3=1= | 1981 I 69.95 | 6.03 | 9.07 i 4.67 | 10.29 452.16 | 990.14 | 1990. 64.72 | 7.38 | 10.3 1 5.8 11.79 529.5 | 1052.9 1 2000 I 60.79 I 8.08 1 10.96 6.96 i 13.21 I 631.06 I 1196.18 I ======-== I ======S===r =2==32=== 5===5=== I ======.. ======-======I ==z=S I

MODERATE

TABLE6:SECTORAL CAPITAL STOCK SHARES (s)

MODERATE TABLE7:HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION SHARES (1)

-||I FOOD I OIL-COAL | MANU- I INFRA- I SERVICES | I . | 1| FACTURES | STRUCTUREI | 11981 I 54.76 I 1.19 1 23.53 I 2.168 18.34 - 1990 1 51.84 | 0.95 225.39 | 2.51 119.3 | I 2000 I 48.69 I 0.75 1 27.66 I 2.83 I 20.07 AT 1981 PRICES.FOOD INCL. PROCESSED FOOD.SERVICES INCL. MARGINS.

MODERATE

TABLE8:BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (BILLION U.S. DOLLARS)

MODERATE

TABLE9:SECTORAL EXPORT SHARES (%)

1981 I 10.73 I 39.7 I 22.85 | 22.45 | 4.27 t 1 1990 I 14.42 | 39.68 t 12.63 | 28.7 1 4.58 | 1 2000 I 14.08 I 35.92 | 10.1 | 35.32 | 4.58 | NOTE: AT WORLD PRICES.

MODERATE

TABLE10:SECTORAL IMPORT SHARES (%)

I 1981 I 15.88 I 0.54 1 29.17 1 53.67 1 0.74 1 1990 I 12.67 I 5.57 I 27.38 I 53.68 1 0.7 I 2000 I 8.32 I 5.76 I 29.65 I 55.59 I 0.68

NOTE: AT WORLD PRICES.

MODERATE

TABLE11:GROSS OUTPUT (BILLION 1981 YUAN)

I I 1981 1 1990 1 2000 1 I1.CROPS I 175.6 | 229.12 | 301.1 i I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB 1 41.6 | 69.43 | 128.49 I 3.METALLURGY V 45.69 | 75.22 | 129.8 I I 4.ELECTRICITY | 19.42 | 33.3 | 59.92 | 1 5.COAL I 16.62 | 22.69 I 32.08 I I 6.0IL EXTRACT | 12.9 | 17.81 I 25.48 | 1 7.0IL REFING I 15.02 | 25.4 t 45.55S | 8.CHEMICAL | 60.53 I 120.3 | 252.71 | | 9.MACHINERY V 113.05 | 233.42 t 459.88 I I 10.BLOG.MATS. | 23.21 | 42.41 | 74.77 | | ll.FOOD PROC. I 70.19 | 134.59 | 261.99 I | 12.TEXTILE | 109.27 | 195.59 t 317.61 I | 13.OTHER MFG. I 49.9 1 97.47 1 177.16 | I 14.CONSTRUCT. | 75.05 | 132.75 | 230.4 I I 15.TRANSPORT. | 31.11 | 54.78 | 98.48 | | 16.COMMERCE | 52.09 | 89.15 t 155.3 I | 17.OTH.SERV. | 11.96 | 21.32 l 38.09 | I 18.ED.+HEALTH | 39.41 | 51.48 | 63.34 | I 19.PUBL.ADMN. I 9.61 | 11.2 | 13.68 | | 20.HOUSING | 11.21 | 20.08 | 35.6 I

=. ~~== I - 43 -

MODERATE

TABLE12:SHARES OF GDP (X)

1981 I 1990 I 2000

1i.CROPS | 30.6 | 25.45 221.94 | I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 4.06 I 4.21 | 4.66 | I 3.METALLURGY | 3.53 | 3.11 I 2.85 | I 4.ELECTRICITV | 2.56 f 3.27 | 3.98 | 1 5.COAL | 1.83 | 1.61 | 1.46 | | 6.0IL EXTRACT ' 1.89 | 3.47 | 4.24 | 7.01L REFING | 1.3 | 1.67 | 1.98 | | B.CHEMICAL I 4.35 I 4.79 5.34 I | 9.MACHrNERY I 8.91 | 10.16 | 10.62 | I 10.BLDG.MATS. I 2.23 I 2.25 | 2.11 | I 11.FOOD PROC. | 4.06 | 4.33 I 4.56 | I 12.TEXTILE | 7. | 6.99 | 6.15 | I 13.OTHER MFG. I 3.95 I 4.53 | 4.67 | I 14.CONSTRUCT. | 4.15 | 4.46 | 4.76 | I 15.TRANSPORT. | 4.09 I 4.19 | 4.52 | | 16.COMMtRCE - 6.37 | 6.01 | 5.9 I I 17.OTH.SERV. | 2.22 | 2.1B I 2.27 | I 18.ED.+HEALTH | 2.77 | 3.01 | 3.41 | I 19.PUBL.ADMN. | 2.1 | 2.06 | 2.05 | | 20.HOUSING | 2.05 | 2.25 | 2.51 |

MODERATE

TABLE13:EMPLOYMENT SHARES (%)

I I 1981 11990 I 2000 I | 1.CROPS | 61.96 | 56.08 1 50.89 | I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB | 7.98 88.65 | 9.9 I | 3.METALLURGY | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.62 | I 4.ELECTRICITY I 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.26 | | 5.COAL | 1.03 | 1. | 0.97 | | 6.OIL EXTRACT | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.06 | | 7.0IL REFING | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | | 8.CHEMICAL | 1.2 | 1.41 | 1.65 1 | 9.MACHINERV | 4.26 | 5.2 | 5.71 | I 10.BLDG.MATS. | 1.8 | 1.94 | 1.91 | I 11.FOOD PROC. I 0.98 | 1.23 | 1.48 | | 12.TEXTILE | 2.29 | 2.66 | 2.67 | | 13.OTHER MFG. - 2.76 | 3.5 | 3.94 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. 22.46 | 3.1 | 3.68 I I 15.TRANSPORT. | 1.95 | 2.45 | 3.01 | | 16.COMMERCE | 3.22 | 3.93 | 4.69 | | 17.OTH.SERV. I 0.71 I 0.98 I 1.33 1 18.ED.+HEALTH | 3.91 | 4.36 | 4.5 I I 19.PUBL,ADMN. | 2.3 I 2.29 | 2.34 1 | 20.HOUSING I 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 1======1======1======- 44 -

MODERATE

TABLE14:CAPITAL STOCK SHARES %) -

1981 1 1990 1 2000 1=- I I I======l===------1l.CROPS I 7.21 | 5.18 | 4. I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 2.39 I 3.56 | 4.38 | I 3.METALLURGV I 5.15 | 4.78 | 4.64 | I 4.ELECTRICITY V 3.55 I 5.05 I 6.47 1 5.COAL | 2.77 | 2.59 | 2.36 | 6.OIL EXTRACT I 1.25 | 2.54 | 3.08 | | 7.OIL REFING | 0.57 | 0.8 I 0.98 | | 8.CHEMICAL | 4.24 | 5.02 | 5.95 I | 9.MACHINERY I 13.19 1 16.33 1 17.85 | I 10.BLDG.MATS. I 2.38 1 2.51 | 2.47 | - ll.FOOD PROC. I 1.79 1 2.02 | 2.21 | | 12.TEXTILE I 2.89 I 2.88 | 2.64 | | 13.0THER MFG. I 3.18 1 3.61 I 3.64 1 I 14.CONSTRUCT. | 2.04 | 2.06 | 2.03 | I 15.TRANSPORT. | 8.52 | 7.99 | 7.89 | | 16.COMMERCE 1ia.64 1 15.36 | 13.14 | 17.OTH.SERV. I 0.59 I 0.54 | 0.5 I I 18.ED.+HEALTH | 2.14 | 1.89 I 1.73 | I 19.PUBL.ADMN. 1 4.02 I 3.18 I 2.888 | 20.HOUSING I 13.49 1 12.12 | 11.17 | | 21.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) I 1280.35 | 2587.09 | 4926.2 |

MODERATE

TABLE15:EXPORT SHARES tX)

I I 1981 1 1990 I 2000 I

I 1.CROPS I 7.79 | 11.54 | 11.07 I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB | 2.94 1 2.87 | 3.02 | I 3.METALLURGY I 4.9 1 2.21 | 2.15 | I 4.ELECTRICITY | 0. | 0. 1 0. | | 5.COAL I 1.6 I 0.48 | 0.4 | | 6.0IL EXTRACT I 14.96 I 7.74 I -0. I | 7.0IL REFING I 6.28 | 4.41 | 9.7 1 | 8.CHEMICAL | 6.97 | 5.77 I 6.85 | | 9.MACHINERY V 10.03 I 20.38 I 25.63 | I 10.BLDG.MATS. | 0.54 | 0.33 I 0.69 | I 11.FOOD PROC. 6e.71 | 7.62 | 7.76 | | 12.TEXTILE | 23.94 | 18.72 | 13.12 | | 13.OTHER MFG. | 9.05 | 13.34 I 15.03 | I 14.CONSTRUCT. | 0. | 0. I 0. 1 | 15.TRANSPORT. 4.27 | 4.58 | 4.58 | | 16.COMMERCE | 0. | 0. | 0. | | 17.OTH.SERV. I 0. | 0. I 0. | | 18.ED.+HEALTH | 0. | 0. I 0. I 19.PUBL.ADMN. | 0. | 0. 1 0. | | 20.HOUSING | 0. I 0. I 0. | | 21.TOTAL (BILL US DOLLARS) 1 22.5 663.34 I 216.63 | | 22.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) | 38.44 | 73.82 | 140.99 | I1======ES=====.=====L= NOTE:AT WORLD PRICES(IN U.S. DOLLARS) - 45 -

MODERATE

TABLE16:IMPORT SHARES (%)

I 1 1981 1 1990 1 2000 I l.CROPS | 15.88 | 5.32 | 4.63 | | 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I -0. | 7.36 I 3.69 | I 3.METALLURGY | 9.38 | 13.27 | 13.12 | | 4.ELECTRICITY V 0. I 0. | 0. I | 5.COAL | 0.45 | 5.14 I 4.51 | | 6.0IL EXTRACT | 0. | -0. | 0.64 1 7.OIL REFING I 0.09 | 0.42 | 0.61 | | B.CHEMICAL 112.14 I 21.72 | 26.33 | | 9.MACHINERY 1 29.17 | 27.38 | 29.65 | I 10.BLDG.MATS. I -0. | 1.05 | 0.47 | | ll.FOOD PROC. | 3.51 | 9.75 | 8.22 | | 12.TEXTILE 119.05 | 5.32 | 4.9 | | 13.OTHER MFG. | 9.58 22.56 | 2.55 | | 14.CONSTRUCT. 0. | 0. | 0. | I 15.TRANSPORT. | 0.74 | 0.7 | 0.68 I I 16.COMMERCE 0. | 0. | 0. | | 17.OTH.SERV. | 0. I 0. | 0. 18.ED.-HEALTH 1 0. I 0. I 0. 119.PUBL.ADMN. 1 0. I 0. | 0. | 20.HOUSING 0. I 0. | 0. I | 21.TOTAL (BILL US DOLLARS) I 21.71 | 69.54 1 223. | 22.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) 1 36.77 | 70.78 | 122.2

NOTE:AT WORLD PRICES(IN U.S. DOLLARS)

MODERATE

TABLE17:PRICE MOVEMENTS

11I 198 1 1 1990 I 2000 1 1.CROPS I 1. | 1.09 1.2 | 2.ANIMAL-HUSB | 1. | 1.06 I 1.1 I | 3.METALLURGY | 1. | 0.93 | 0.8' I | 4.ELECTRICITY | 1. I 1.14 I 1.22 | I 5.COAL I 1. | 1.06 | 1.12 | | 6.0IL EXTRACT | 1. 11.84 | 2.46 I | 7.OIL ReFING | 1. 1 1.51 1 1.81 | | 8.CHEMICAL I 1. | 0.95 | 0.87 | | 9.MACHINERY | 1. I 0.93 | 0.85 I I 10.BLDG.MATS. 1 t. 1 0.94 I 0.87 | ll.FOOD PROC. | 1. 1 1.01 | 1.02 | | 12.TEXTILE 1 1. I 0.95 I 0.91 I 13.OTHER MFG. I 1. | 0.96 | 0.92 1 * 14.CONSTRUCT. 1 1. | 0.96 | 0.93 | | 15.TRANSPORT. | 1. | 1.01 | 1.04 | 16.COMMERCE 1. | 0.93 I 0.88 | | 17.OTH.SERV. | 1. | 0.92 I 0.89 | 18.ED.+HEALTH I 1. | 1.26 | 1.72 | 1l9.PUBL.ADMN. | 1. I 1.4 ! 1.89 | | 20.HOUSING 1 1. I 1.01 | 1.04 | | 21.GDP DEFLATOR | 1. | 1. | 1. | I I I======I======- 46 -

BALANCE

TABLEI:KEY GROWTH RATES (% P.A. AT 1981 PRICES)

suss.ss.ssuufl.a..saus ss"sssuus s.uuuauas aasssssuu uussasas.. sussauss .ssu.-..us CDP GDP PER NMP CVIAO EXPORTS MPORTS CAPITA mucus. .. au*auas.s usa.. sssuasus u s .uammoas uss.ssuuss mmosm.asus s.asa.a.mu". .s. mu. *1981-1990 6.92 5.86 6.48 6.74 8.36 8.44 1990-2000 6.33 5.28 5.9 6.13 8.28 7.15 1981-2000 6.61 5.55 6.17 6.42 8.32 7.76 m.msa.sussmus.ss.u.u 5* 5550""wmuu.uuuosmsa_ mlmouas anamsauu.u monuumumaw umamwsmu.s

BALANCE

TABLE2:GOP. AND DEMAND COMPOSITION

GDP GDP INVEST- HOUSEHOLD GOVT EXPORTS/ FOREIGN (BILLIONS PERCAPITA MENT/GOP CONSUMP- CONSUt4P- GOP (X) TRADE OF 1981 (1981 us (%) TION/GOP TION/GDP DEFICIT/ YUAN) DOLLARS) (X) CX) GDP lX) 1*****"s-"u ==useu5*= smsa"ua. a.auassm.Ssnomu50m5ms =.n.wam n. an m amon 1981 457.67 300.73 28.48 55.93 15.3 8.36 -0.29 1s9o 835.46 501.96 26.37 58.5 16. 8.82 0.87 2000 1543.18 839.36 25.88 58.5 16. 10.25 0.38 ausu----.uu.u.om nu us ss sSS 5 3.mu us ...... susssu . ,,_s ...... 5.5...... am u .suu...... s......

BALANCE

TABLE3:SECTORAL SHARES OF (40P (M)

"*S-sm.uuuuuu.usuasa -uu.s.sassassamamumss "^^BB"s"suassu aa-s^ sssaumusu AGRICUL LIGHT HEAVY INFRA- SERVICES -TURE INDUSTRY INDUSTRY STRUCTURE uSSSuSfluUuSassssusu.s a"Bzummommu,nnamuusuuu, s u nuas musassussus uuuau.asva 1981 34.66 15.01 24.03 10.8 19.5 1990 29.75 13.93 23.8 12.21 20.31 2000 23.34 12.33 22.91 13.37 28.05 umsssssusmsuuasssuB-"B uausaummms wsuasuuas su"""sausn as-sssss us-"susa m

BALANCE

TABLE4:GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH ('1 P.A. AT 1981 PRICES)

BALANCE

TASLES:SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT SHARES tS)

C~~~~~~ARICUL-LIGHT HEAVY INFRA- SERVICES EMPLOYNT - POPULATN TURE INDUSTRY INDUSTRY SrRuCTURE (MILLION) (MILLION) SUUB=SUu=aS222253=u UUUSU-- "=U UUf Uf-lUUflEE SUflSUmflU flUliSUfInnflnuu, muuuauuuuu--X--sssn 1981 69.95 6.03 9.07 4.67 10.29 452.16 990.14 1990 92.17 6.92 9.49 5.79 15.64 529.5 1082.9 2000 52.25 7.09 I 9.29 | 6.73 24.63 631.06 1196.18

BALANCE

TABLE6:SECTORAL CAPITAL STOCK SHARES CS)

AGRICUL- LIGHT | HEAVY I INFRA- | SERVICES+j TURE INDUSTRVI INDUSTRY STRUCTURE|HOUSING I

1981 1 9.61 1 7.98 | 29.65 1 14.08 I 38.68 1990 I 9.89 I 7.04 1 29.19 I 16.52 I 37.36 2000D 9.8 I 6.36 1 28.42 I 18.39 I 37.02 l2======I== I======I== I===== I======

BALANCE

TABLE7:HOUSEHOLO CONSUMPTION SHARES (%)

1 1981 I 54.76 I 1.19 1 23.53 1 2.18 I 16.34 1 1990 I 49.9 I 0.86 I 24.83 I 2.62 I 21.78 I 2000 I 44.39 I 0.62 I 24.99 I 2.95 I 27.05 AT 1981 PRICES.FOOD INCL. PROCESSED FOOD.SERVICES INCL. MARGINS.

BALANCE

TABLES:BALANCE OF PAYVMENTS (BILLION U.S. DOLLARS)

======…====2===I====a======I===…======I | EXPORTS | IMPORTS I NET | NET I NET I FOREIGN FOB I CIF I INTEREST I TRANSFERSI BORROWINGI DEBI I I I I I =-CURRENTI STOCK I |I |IBALANCE I I I ======I======I======…======I 1981 I 22.5 I 21.71 1 0.12 I 0.57 ; -1.23 I 0.9 I I 1990 - 68.1 I 74.79 I 1.5 I 0.9 I 7.3 26. I 2000 I 261.8 I 271.5 I 10.65 I 1.61 I 18.85 I 151.92

NOTE: INCLUDES INTERNATIONAL INFLATION. DEBT NET OF RESERVES. - 4P. -

BALANCE

TABLE9:SECTDRAL EXPORT SHARES (M)

NOTE: AT WORLD PRICES.

BALANCE

TABLE1O:SECTORAL IMPORT SHARES (I)

| | AGRICUL- I OIL+COAL I MACHINERVY OTHER I INFRASTR+j | | TURE I MANUFACT.1 SERVICES I I 1981 I 15.88 I 0.54 I 29.17 i 53.67 0.74 I1990 15.13 1 3.93 I 35.44 I 44.79 0.7 I2000 8.07 V 3.15 I 39.25 I 48.85 0.69 NOTE: AT WORLD PRI'ES.

BALANCE

TABLE11:GROSS OUTPUT (BILLION 1981 YUAN)

Il 1981 I 1990 I 2000 I

I1.CROPS | 175.6 I 245.64 I 342.17 22.ANIMAL-HUSB - 41.6 | 79.87 I 164.69 I I 3.METALLURGY 45.69 | 73.68 | 122.09 | I 4.ELECTRICITV | 19.42 I 35.44 | 68.23 1 5.COAL i 16.62 | 24.41 | 37.43 I I 6.OIL EXTRACT | 12.9 | 17.81 | 25.48 | | 7.OIL REFING 15.02 I 25.4 | 45.55 I 8.CHEMICAL I 60.53 I 121.97 I 247.45 I | 9.MACHINERY 113.05 2231.98 I 475.81 | I 10.BLDG.MATS. | 23.21 | 43.91 I 78.25 | ll.FOOD PROC. | 70.19 | 157.81 I 337.04 I | 12.TEXTILE I 109.27 | 200.38 I 333.06 I I 13.OTHER MFG. | 49.9 I 95.53 | 176.9 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. I 75.05 | 146.11 | 271.52 I I 15,TRANSPORT. | 31.11 | 59.69 I 115.69 | I 16.COMMERCE | 52.08 | 114.97 | 273.1 | 17.OTH.SERV. | 11.95 | 55.39 | 177.32 | I1B.ED.+HEALTH 1 39.41 I 57.67 I 76.01 | I 19.PUBL.ADMN. | 9.61 | 11.6 | 14.94 | 20.HOUSING | 11.21 I 24.5 1 48.48 I ======]======l======l======-49-

BALANCE

TABLE12:SHARES OF GDP W%)

I==S======I*======I:=----_=I----==----==I 1981 1 1990 1 2000 I~ ~~======I======30.6 1 . I= I.CROPS 30.6 24.77 17.5 I2.ANIMAL-HUSB | 4.066 4.98 | 5.84 | 3.METALLURGY | 3.53 | 2.59 | 2. | 4.ELECTRICITV | 2.56 | 3.43 | 4.34 5.COAL | 1.83 | 1.67 1 1.5 6.OIL EXTRACT - I 1.89 | 3.36 | 4.07 | ?.01L REFING 1 1.3 I 1.61 1 1.9 | 8.CHEMICAL | 4.35 | 4.01 I 3.75 | 9.MACHINERY | 8.91 | 8.49 | 7.98 I IO.BLDG.MATS. I 2.23 2.07 | 1.71 | Il.FOOD PROC. | 4.06 | 4.09 | 4.08 | 12.TEXTILE | 7. | 5.89 | 4.63 | 13.OTHER MFG. .3.95 | 3.95 | 3.62 | 14.CONSTRUCT. 4.15 | 4.43 1 4.42 | 15.TRANSPORT. | 4.09 | 4.35 | 4.6 | 16.COMMERCE I 6.37 1 7.36 | 10.09 | 17.OTH.SERV. 2.22 | 4.79 1 8.94 | 18.ED.+HEALTH | 2.77 | 3.5 1 4.07 | 19.PUBL.ADMN. 1 2.1 I 2.17 | 2.15 20.HOUSING I 2.05 | 2.49 | 2.8 |

BALANCE

TABLE13:EMPLOVMENT SHARES (%)

_1 1981 I 1990 I 2000

1.CROPS | 61.96 | 52.22 1 39.56 | 2.ANIMAL-HUSB | 7.98 | 9.95 | 12.69 | 3.METALLURGY | 0.66 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 4.ELECTRICITV I 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 5.COAL 1.03 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 6.OIL EXTRACT I 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.05 I 7.OIL REFING I 0.04 | 0.04 1 0.03 | 8.CHEMICAL | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.32 | 9.MACHINERY I 4.26 | 4.7 | 4.84 1 10.BLDG.MATS. 1.8 | 1.83 - 1.64 11.FOOD PROC. I 0.98 | 1.31 | 1.56 | 12.TEXTILE | 2.29 | 2.48 | 2.3 | 13.OTHER MFG. | 2.76 | 3.12 3.23 | 14.CONSTRUCT. I 2.46 | 3.11 | 3.57 | 15.TRANSPORT. I 1.95 1 2.43 | 2.91 | 16.COMMERCE I 3.22 I 5.55 1 10. 1 17.OTH.SERV. 0.71 I 2.55 | 6.21 | I18.ED.+HEALTH 1 3.91 I 4.88 I 5.4 | 19.PUBL.AOMM. - 2.3 | 2.37 | 2.56 I 20.HOUSING | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.47 i - 50 -

BALANCE

TABLE14:CAPITAL STOCK SHARES (%)

1981 1990 1 2000

1.CROPS | 7.21 | 5.28 | 3.91 2.ANIMAL-HUSB 2.39 | 4.61 | 5.89 3.METALLURGV 5.07 | 3.92 | 3.2 4.ELECTRICITY 3.55t 5.566 7.39 5.COAL 2.8 | 2.99 | 2.91| t 6.OIL EXTRACT 1.25| 2.6 | 3.06t | 7.OIL REFING I 0.57 t 0.82 | 0.97 | | 8.CHEMICAL I 4.17 t 4.05 | 4.03 | t 9.MACHINERV | 13.45 12.67 | 12.39 | | 10.BLDG.MATS. 2.34 2.14 I1.d7 I | ll.FOOD PROC. 1.76 1.86 1.921 | | 12.TEXTILE | 2.94 | 2.34 I 1.89 I | 13.OTHER MFG. I 3.27 | 2.84 2.56 | 14.CONSTRUCT. | 2.01 | 1.9 I 1.73 t I 15.TRANSPORT. | 8.52 t 8.96 | 9.26 16.COMMERCE 1 18.45 15.74 | 15.04 I | 17.OTH.SERV. I 0.59 I 1.14 | 1.79 | I 18.ED.+HEALTH I 2.14 | 2.15 | 2.06 | I l9.PUBL.ADMN. | 4.02 | 3.37 | 3.12 I | 20.HOUSING | 13.49 14.96 | 15.02 | | 21.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) | 1280.35 | 2529.35 | 5015.67 |

BALANCE

TABLE15:EXPORT SHARES (¶0

I I 1981 1 1990 I 2000 I I1.CROPS I 7.79 | 10.74 | 10.27 | I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB 2.94 | 3.07 3.2 | I 3.METALLURGV 4.9 I 4.38 4.17 t I 4.ELECTRICITY 0. I 0. I 0. I | 5.COAL 1 1.6 t 0.48 | 0.39 | 6.0IL EXTRACT I 14.96 I 8.2 I 0.03 | | 7.0IL REFING | 6.28 | 2.38 j 3.24 1 | 8.CHEMICAL t 6.97 t 9.78 | 11.09 | 9.MACHINERY V 10.03 I 15. 1 23.77 | I 10.BLDG.MATS. I 0.54 I 1.28 I 1.72 | ll.FOOD PROC. | 6.71 | 8.31 8.278 | 12.TEXTILE I 23.94 I 20.72 [ 14.4 13.OTHER MFG. 9.05 11.12 t 14.75 14.CONSTRUCT. I 0. I 0. I 0. I 15.TRANSPORT. I 4.27 | 4.57 | 4.72 | 16.COMMERCE I 0. I 0. t 0. 17.OTH.SERV. 0. 0O. t O. I 18.ED.+HEALTHI 0. | 0. I 0. I 19.PUBL.ADMN. I 0. | 0. | 0. | 20.HOUSING | 0. I 0. t 0. I | 21.TOTAL (BILL US DOLLARS) I 22.5 1 68.1 I 261.8 t | 22.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) | 38.44 | 79.17 | 175.47 |

NOTE:AT WORLD PRICESCIN U.S. DOLLARS) - 51 -

BALANCE

TABLE16:IMPORT SHARES (%)

Il 1981 1 1990 j 2000 I

I 1.CROPS 15.88 | 5.31 | 4.32 | I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB | -0. | 9.82 I 3.74 | - 3.METALLURGY | 9.38 1 9.69 | 9.79 | I 4.ELECTRICITY | 0. | 0. | 0. | - 5.COAL | 0.45 | 3.52 | 2.6 1 I 6.OIL EXTRACT 0. 0. -0. | 7.0IL REFING | 0.09 I 0.41 I 0.55 | I B.CHEMICAL | 12.14 | 18.17 1 21.38 | 9.MACHINERY | 29.17 335.44 | 39.25 1 - 10.BLDG.MATS. I -0. I 0.45 | 0.39 1 11.FOOD PROC. | 3.51 | 7.26 - 6.75 | I 12.TEXTILE | 19.05 I 5. I 4.14 I | 13 OTHER MFG. | 9.58 | 4.23 1 6.39 | | 14.CONSTRUCT. - 0. | 0. | 0. | | 15.TRANSPORT. I 0.74 1 0.7 | 0.69 1 - 16.COMMERCE I 0. | 0. 1 0.° I 17.OTH.SERV- 0. I 0. 0. I 18-ED.+HEALTH | 0. | 0. | 0. I - 19.PUBL.ADMN. | 0. | 0. | 0. | 20.HOUSING I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 21.TOTAL (BILL US DOLLARS) | 21.71 I 74.79 1 271.5 I I 22.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) | 36.78 I 76.23 1 52.04 I NOTE:AT WORLD PRICES(IN U.S. DOLLARS)

BALANCE

TABLE17:PRICE MOVEMENTS

:======I======I======I======I I l 1981 I 1990 *l 2000 I

I .CROPS 1. I 1.09| 1.06 I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB | 1. 1.1 | 1.16 | | 3.METALLURGY 1| 1. 0.93 I 0.88 1 I 4.ELECTRICITY | 1. I 1.24 I 1.44 | | 5.COAL | 1. 1.11 | 1.22 | | 6.OIL EXTRACT | 1. I 1.97 | 2.92 | | 7.OIL REFING | 1. 1.62 I 2.15 | I B.CHEMICAL | 1. 1 0.93 I 0.88 I | 9.MACHINERY I 1. 1 0.9 I 0.84 | I 10.BLDG.MATS. | 1. 1 0.94 | 0.89 | | 11.FOO0 PROC. I 1. | 0.99 | 0.97 I | 12.TEXTILE | 1. | 0.91 I 0.87 I | 13.0THER MFG. | 1. | 0.96 00.92 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. | 1. I 0.96 I 0.93 | I 15.TRANSPORT. | 1 1 1.0S I 1.13 | I 16.COMMERCE I 1. | 0.96 I 0.98 | | 17.OTH.SERV. | 1. | 0.88 1 0.95 1 I18.ED.+HEALTH | 1. | 1.32 I 1.88 1 I 19.PUBL.ADMN. | 1. I 1.58 | 2.27 | | 20.HOUSING - 1. I 1.02 I -1.06 1 | 21.GDP DEFLATOR 1 1. | 1. | 1. | 1=-======1======I======- 52 -

6. URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION.OF EMPLOYMENT, CAPITAL AND OUTPUT 1981-2000

6.01 Table 6.1 provides some alternative projections of the distribution between urban and rural areas of employment, capital, and gross output, associated with the three macroeconomic projections. There are, of course,. many possible urban-rural distributions of employment, capital, and gross output that could accompany each of the macroeconomic projections, but the assumptions underlying the alternative distributions are consistent with the overall themes of the macroeconomic projections.

6.02 In QUADRUPLE, the Government is assumed to pursue a strategy of rural industrialization. Urban employment still grows more rapidly than rural employment, but the share of total rural employment accounted for by nonagricultural activities is assumed to increase from 14% in 1981 to 25% in 2000. This is quite a high ratio for a lower-middle-incomecountry, but not an impossible one. It is also assumed that the rural share of the nonagricultural capital stock increases. Capital per worker in nonagricultural activities grows almost as rapidly in rural as in urban areas (see Table 6.2) and gross output per worker in nonagriculturalactivities grows more rapidly in rural areas. Total gross output per worker also grows more rapidly in rural than in urban areas as the increase in the proportion of rural workers in nonagricultural activities (which have higher levels of gross output per worker than agriculture) offsets the fact that rural areas have a larger share of the labor force in the slower growing agricultural sector.

6.03 In MODERATE, it is assumed that rural areas have to absorb a much larger share of the labor force than in QUADRUPLE, but there is no accompany- ing shift in the disFtributionof capital stock in favor of rural areas. In urban areas, enterprises respond to labor shortages by adopting more capital- intensive techniques, and capital per worker and gross output per worker both increase more rapidly than in QUADRUPLE. In rural areas by contrast, because of a shortage of capital, output per worker growth is much below projected levels in QUADRUPLE.

6.04 In BALANCE, it is assumed that the increased service orientation of the economy and the consequently slower growth in agricultural employment are accompanied by a more rapid growth in urban employment than in either QUADRUPLE or MODERATE. At the same time there is a shift in the distribution of nonagricultural capital in favor of rural areas. The overall increase in efficiency in the use of capital in this projection relative to QUADRUPLEand MODERATE has its major impact on the urban and specifically on the state enterprise sector. As a result, gross output per worker grows only sLightly less rapidly than capital per worker in urban areas. However, output as well as capital per worker growth rates are higher in ruraL than in urban areas. - 53 -

Table 6.1: URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT, CAPITAL AND OUTPUT UNDER ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS 1981-2000

Employment Capital stock Cross output (1981 Yuan) (1981 Yuan)

1981 Total 452.2 mil. 17280.4 bil. 983.5 bil. Z Rural Agricultural 65.2 8.4 19.5 Z Rural Nonagricultural 10.6 10.0 10.8 % Urban Nonagricultural 19.5 80.4 67.1 X Urban Agricultural 4.7 1.2 2.6

QUADRUPLE 2000 Total 631.1 mil. 5,539.1 bil. 3,592.5 bil. Z Rural Agricultural 55.0 7.7 12.4 Z Rural Nonagricultural 18.2 13.9 19.8 X Urban Nonagricultural 22.8 77.3 66.1 Z Urban Agricultural 4.0 1.1 1.7

MODERATE 2000 Total 631.1 mil. 4,926.2 bil. 2,901.4 bil. Z Rural Agricultural 56.7 7.3 13.0 A Rural Nonagricultural 23.1 8.9 14.9

7 Urban Nonagricultural 16.1 82.7 70.3 A Urban Agricultural 4.1 1.1 1.8

BALANCE 2000 Total 631.1 mil. 5,015.7 bil. 3,431.3 bil. Z Rural Agricultural 48.6 8.6 13.0 Z Rural Nonagricultural 19.2 14.7 18.1 Z Urban Nonagricultural 28.5 75.5 67.1 Z Urban Agricultural 3.7 1.2 1.8 0 ~~~~~~~~~~-54 -

Table 6.2: GROWTH IN CAPITAL AND OUTPUT PER WORKER IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS UNDER ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS 1981-2000 CZ p.a.)

Capital per worker Cross output per worker Agriculture Nonagric. Total Agriculture Nonagric. Total

(a) QUADRUPLE

Urban 6.6 5.0 5.3 3.7 4.2 4.5 Rural 6.6 4.9 7.2 3.6 5.6 5.7 Total 6.6 4.5 6.1 3.6 4.0 5.2

(b) MODERATE

Urban 5.5 6.7 6.6 2.7 5.3 5.2 Rural 5.5 0.7 4.5 2.6 1.5 3.3 Total 5.5 4.1 5.5 2.6 3.1 4.0

tC) BALANCE

Urban 7.3 3.1 3.7 4.2 2.8 3.3 Rural 7.3 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 5.7 Total 7.3 3.0 5.6 4.3 2.9 5.0 -- :-Appendix -55 A Page 1 of 8

APPENDIX A: GLOSSARY OF SYMBOLS

The following list of symbols, which is needed to interpret Appendices B-D, is divided into three sections: endogenous variables; exogenous variables; and coefficients (parameters). Within each section, the order is alphabetical. This arrangement correspondstwith the "symbol declarations" at the beginning of the computer program in Appendix B. The subscript i (or j) refers to sectors, which are listed in full in Chapter 2 of the main text of this annex. The letter R at the end of a symbol stands for "real" (at base year prices); the letter N for "nominal" (at current prices). In some cases a variable subscripted i may be both endogenous and exogenous (in different sectors); in these cases it is defined below only in the endogenous variable list.

Endogenous Variables

ACCRATE = accumulation rate (MPS concept)

AKi = incremental capital-to-gross-outputratio in sector i

AQBUYRi total intermediate purchases of sector i (real)

AQBUYi = total intermediate purchases of sector i (nominal)

AQSELLi = total intermediate sales of sector i (nominal)

AQSELRi total intermediate sales of sector i (real)

AQij = intermediate sales of sector i to sector j (real)

Aij = input-output coefficients

CCLAIM = total incremental household consumption claims

CCLAIMi - incremental household consumption claim of sector i

CMAT = household consumption (MPS concept)

CMATSHR = CMAT as ratio of national income available

CN household consumption (SNA concept)

CPI household consumption price index

CR = real household consumption

CRPCi = real per capita household consumption in sector i

CRi = real household consumption in sector i

Ci = nominal household consumption in sector i -56- Appendix A

DDi - total domestic demand in sector i (real)

DEPR = total depreciation

DEPRi - depreciation in sector i

DOLDEBT = net foreign debt in current dollars

DOLDS = interest on foreign debt in current dollars

DOLM = total imports in current dollars

DOLMi = imports in sector i in current dollars

DOLNTR = net transfers from abroad in current dollars

DOLSF - net foreign borrowing in current dollars

DOLX = total exports in current dollars

DOLXi = exports of sector i in current dollars

DS = interest on foreign debt in domestic currency

EXCHR = exchange rate (yuan per dollar)

FI = total fixed investment (nominal)

FIi = fixed investment in sector i

FK = total fixed capital stock (real)

FKi = fixed capital stock in sector i

CDP = gross domestic product (real)

GDPPERCA = gross domestic product per capita

GMAT = public consumption (MPS concept)

GMATSHR CMAT as share of national income available

GN - public consumption (SNA concept)

CRi = real public consumption in sector i

GVIAO - gross value of industrial and agricultural output

GVO = total gross output of all sectors (1-20)

Gi - nominal public consumption in sector i -- 57- Appendix A Page 3 of 8

HYDSHR = primary electricity share of total eleccricity output

ICLAIMi = investment claim of sector i

IMAT = accumulation (MPS concept)

IN = totaL investment (SNA concept)

INEEDi = preliminary investment claim of sector i (sectors 9,

12, 13 only)

INVRATE = IN as share of nominal CDP

IORi = real volume of investment goods supplied by sector i

IOi = nominal volume of investrmlentgoods supplied by sector i

IRESID = residual of IN after meeting claims of sectors other

than 9, 12, 13

ISHRi = investment in sector i as share of total investment

Ii = investment in sector i

K = total capital stock (real)

Ki = capital stock of sector i

Li = employment in sector i

M = totaL imports in domestic currency (real)

MILINV = defence investment

MLOSS = losses on imports due to domestic-world price

differences mi = imports in sector i in domestic currency (real)

N = total intermediate use in sector 1 (crops)

NADJ = N minus predetermined inputs

NIA national income available (14PSconcept)

NMP = nominal net material product (MPS concept of national

income) - 58 - .Appendix A Page 4 of 8

NMPREAL = real net material product

NMPSHRi sectoral shares of nominal NMP

NMPi = net material product of sector i

NQSHRi = sectoral shares of nominal GDP

NQi = sectoral net output (SNA concept)

NTR = net transfers from abroad in domestic currency

PAIBAR = average profit rate on capital in sectors 1-17

PAIZ = dummy profit rate in sector 3 used in updating prices

PAIi = profit rate in sector i

PAR = ratio of labor force to population

PBAR = GDP deflator (nominal GDP divided by real GDP)

PHIi = sectoral shares in the supply of circulating

investment goods

PK = price index of capital goods

POP = population

PROF = total profits in sectors 1-17

PROFi = profits in sector i

Pi price in sector i

QSMAT = total production of material goods

QSi = gross output of sector i (real)

REALPCC = real per capita household consumption

RENT = housing depreciation plus net rent %return to

capital)

SD = total nominal domestic savings (SNA concept)

SF = foreign borrowing in domestic currency

SK = total investment in circulating capital (nominal) Appendix A Page 5 of 8

SKDISCR = discrepancy between actual SK and desired SK

SKOi = circulating investment goods supplied by sector i

SKSHR SK as share of IN

SKi = sector i's investment in circulating capital

T = state of "technology" in crop production

VRATl7 = ratio of sector 17's net material product to its

adjusted gross output (adjusted for intermediate use

of its own output) l/

WB - total wage bill

WBAR average wage rate

WBi = wage bill of sector i

WK . totaL circulating capital stock (real)

WKi = circulating capital stock of sector i

Wi = wage rate in sector i

X = total exports in dozestic currency (real).

XLOSS = losses on exports due to domestic-world price

differences

XMFD = manufactured exports (sectors 9, 11, 12, 13 only)

Xi = exports of sector i in domestic currency (real)

Y = nominal GDP

YH = household income

I/ The net output of sector 17 (miscellaneous services) has to be split in the MPS accounts between material production (intermediate use of miscellaneous services in material production sectors, which is added to the output of those sectors) and other uses that do not contribute to material production. VRAT17 is used to abbreviate the equations used fbr this calculation. - 60 - Appendix A Page 6 of 8

Zi = price in sector i (notation used only in price

updating block)

Exogenous Variables

AFUELi = fuel input coefficient of sector i

ACINTi = sector i's share of intermediate inputs used in crop

production

ALPHAi = relative wage ratio (sector i divided by sector 3)

ALi = labor input coefficient (per unit of gross output) in

sector i

A0608A = coefficient determining crude oil use as fuel in

chemicals

A0608B = coefficient determining crude oil use as feedstock in

chemicals

A7108A = coefficient determining fuel oil use as fuel in

chemicals

A7108 = coefficient determining fuel oil use as feedstock in

chemicals

A7ZjA = coefficient determining distillate use for

own-account trucks in sector j

A72jB = coefficient determining other distillate use in

sector j

BETAl = exponent an capital in crop production function

BETA2 = exponent on intermediate inputs in crop production

function - 61 - Appendix A Page 7 of 8

Bi = sectoral shares in supply of fixed investment goods

CDEi = househoLd consumption demand elasticity in sector i

DOLNTRBS = net transfers from abroad in dollars in the base year

DTCTi = target trade deficit in sector i (ratio of DDi)

Di = dummy variables used to make sectoral contributions

to circulating investment in the base year conform

with the estimated input-output table for that year

(= I in all subsequent years)

Ei = share of sector i in public consumption

HYDPOW = primary electricity production

INTEREST = interest rate on foreign debt

L = total labor force

LTSHR = share of distillates in refined petroleum output

MSHAREi = minimum import ratio (of DDi) in sector i mU = ratio of domestic savings to nominal GDP

NCROW = growth rate of intermediate use in crop production

POPGROW = growth rate of popuLation

QGROWi = growth rate of gross output in sector i

RHOi = target ratio of circulating to total capital in

sector i

SMALLF = target ratio of foreign debt to exports

SMALLC public share of total consumption (SNA basis)

SMALLR = ratio of RENT to housing capital stock

TCROW = rate of increase of T

WPINDX = index of world price inflation

WPINDXi = world price index in sector i - 62 - Appendix A Page 8 of 8

XSHAREi = minimum export ratio (of QSi) in sector i

XTGTi = sector i's target share of XMFD

ZETAi = relative profit ratio (sector i divided by sector 3)

Coefficients

CALi = calorific value of a unit of sector i's output

CFMi = base year ratio of world to domestic prices of sector

i's imports

CFXi = base year ratio of world to domestic prices of sector

i's exports

DAMP = damping coefficient (similarly DAMP1, DAMP2)

DELTAi = depreciation rate in sector i

EXCHBS = exchange rate in base year

KAPPA = damping coefficient

MILSHRi = defence investment share of public consumption (SNA

basis) in sector i

SMALLS = household saving ratio (out of YH) - 63 - AppendixB Page 1 of 27

APPENDIX B: COMPUTER PROGRAM OF THE MODEL

This is a full listing of the first 704 eq-uationsof the model, with some explanatory comments. It includes a11 the equations that play an active part in determining the solution, and provides more detail than is in Chapter 2 of this annex concerning the lags, damping, and specificationsused. These 704 equations also include some redundant equations, used to calculate supplementary variables that facilitate interpretationof the results. Among these are the equations (653-696) that calculate the MPS national accounts. To save space, equations 705-927 are omitted: they are all redundant and elementary (calculating CRi, CRPCi, GRi, IORi, AQij, AQBUYi, and AQSELLj).

The arithmetic symbols used in the equations are self-explanatory, except that ** denotes an exponential relationship (e.g. y**x is YX). The model is written and solved in the TROLL system (version 11.5) developed by the Massachusetts Institute of TechnoLogy for use on IBM computers. (In this system, endogenous variables do not need to be placed on the left-hand-side of the equations, although most of them are in this model.) The 927 equations of the model are arranged by TROLL into 620 blocks, each of which is solved separately in an appropriate sequence. Of these blocks, 616 contain only one equation, and one contains only two equations (DD71 and M71). The remaining three multi-equation blocks are:

(i) a 244-equation block containing national income, sectoral net output, household consumption, public consumption, investment by sector of origin, gross output in demand-driven sectors, coal and fuel oil input coefficients, and exports and imports (in domestic currency and in dollars);

(ii) a 42-equation block containing wage rates, wage bills and rent; and

(iii) a 23-equation bLock containing the price updating equations.

These multi-equation blocks can be solved in TROLL by several methods. The Newton-Raphsonmethod was used for this model. This technique is iterative. A vector of variables is estimated at each iteration and compared with the vector in the previous iteration. This continues until the difference between every element of these two vectors is smaller than a pre- specified small number (in this case 0.0001).

More information about the TROLL software package may be obtained from: IPS Technical Services, MIT Building 39-427, Cambridge, MA 02319, U.S.A. Telephone (617) 253-8421. MODEL: CHA3

SYMBOL DECLARATIONS

ENDOGENOUS5 ACCRATE AK04 AQ8UVRO1 AQ3UVY02 AQBUYRI1 AQBUVOI AQ8UYO2 AQ0UYV1 AQSELLOI AQSELL02 A4SELLII AQSELROI AQSELRO2 AOSELR11 AQOIOI AQ0102 AQ0103 AQ0104 AQ0105 AQ0106 AQ0107 AQOIOS AQO109 AQOIIO AQOIII AQ0112 AQ0113 AQ0114 A00115 A00116 A00117 AQ0118 A00119 AQ0120 AQ0201 A00202 AQ0203 A00204 AQ0205 AQ0206 A00207 AQ0208 AQ0209 AQ0210 A00211 A00212 A00213 A00214 A£0215 AQ0216 A00217 AQ0218 A00219 AQ0220 AQ0301 A00302 AQ0311 A00401 A00402 AQ0411 AQOSO1 AQ0502 AQ0511 AQ0601 A£0602 AQ0611 AQO01 AQ0802 AQ0811 AQ0901 AQ0902 A00911 A£1001 A01002 AQ1011 AQl10 AQ1102 A01103 A01104 A01105 A01106 A01107 AQ1108 AQ1109 A01110 AQ£III AQ£012 AQ1113 AQ1114 AQ1115 AQ1116 AQ1117 AQIIIS A01li9 AQ1120 AQ1201 AQ1202 AQ1211 A01301 A01302 AQ1311 AQ1401 A01402 AQ1411 A01501 AQ1502 AQ1511 AQ1601 AQ1602 AQ1611 AQ1701 AQ1702 AQ1711 AQ1801 AQ1802 AQ1811 AQ1901 A01902 AQ1911 AQ2001 A02002 AQ2011 £07101 A07102 AQ7111 AQ7201 A07202 A07211 A0301 A0501 A0502 A0503 A0504 A0505 A0506 A0508 A0509 A0510 A0511 A0512 A0513 A0514 A0515 A0516 A0517 A0518 A0519 A0520 A0609 A0801 AO901 A1001 AllO A1201 A1301 A1401 £1501 £1601 A1701 A1801 Al901 A2001 A7103 A7107 A7108 A7109 A7110 A7111 A7112 A7113 A7116 A7117 A7118 A7119 A7120 A7201 A7202 A7203 A7204 A7205 A7206 A7207 A7208 A7209 A7210 A7211 A7212 A7213 A7214 A7215 A7216 A7217 A7218 A7219 A7220 CCLAIM CCLAIMOI CCLAIM02 CCLAIM03 CCLAIM04 CCLAIM05 CCLAIM06 CCLAIM08 CCLAIM09 CCLAIMIO CCLAIMII CCLAIM12 CCLAIM13 CCLAIM14 CCLAIM15 CCLAIM16 CCLAIM17 CCLAIM16 CCLAIMI9 CCLAIM20 CCLAIM71 CCLAIM72 CMAT CMATSHR CN CPI CR CRPCO1 CRPCO2 CRPCO3 CRPCO4 CRPCO5 CRPCOG CRPCO8 CRPCO9 CRPCIO CRPCI1 CRPC12 CRPC13 CRPC14 CRPCI5 CRPCIG CRPCI7 CRPC18 CRPCI9 CRPC20 CRPC71 CRPC72 CRO1 CR02 CR03 CR04 CRO5 CR06 CR08 CR09 CR10 CR11 CR12 CR13 CR14 CR15 CRI6 CR17 CR18 CR19 CR20 CR71 CR72 COI C02 C03 C04 C05 C06 CO C09 CIO ClI C12 C13 C14 C15 C16 C17 C18 Cl9 C20 C71 C72 0001 DD02 DD03 0004 0005 0006 0008 0009 DD10 0011 0012 0013 0014 D015 OD16 D017 DD18 D019 DD20 0D71 DD72 DEPR DEPR1I DEPRl9 DOLDEBT DOLDS DOLM DOLMOI OOLM02 DOLM03 DOLU04 DOLMO5 DOLM06 DOLMOB DOLMO9 DOLMIO DOLMII DOLM12 DOLM13 DOLM14 DOLM15 OOLM16 DOLM17 DOLMIY DOLM19 DOLM20 DOLU71 DOLM72 DOLNIR DOLSF DOLX DOLXOI DOLXO2 DOLX03 DOLX04 DOLX05 DOLX06 OOLX08 DOLX09 OOLXIO DOLXII OOLX12 DOLX13 DOLX14 OOLX15 DOLX16 OOLX17 DOLX18 DOLX19 DOLX20 DOLX71 DOLX72 DS EXCHR fl FIO1 FI02 F103 F104 FIOS F106 P107 FIOB FI09 FI10 Flll F112 F113 FI14 FI15 F116 F117 FIl8 FIl9 F120 FK FKOI FK02 FK03 FK04 FK05 fK06 FK07 FK08 fK09 FKIO FKII FK12 FK13 FK14 FK15 FK16 FK17 FK18 FK19 FK20 GOP GOPPERCA GMAT GMATSHR GN GRO1 GRO2 GR03 GR04 CRO5 CR06 GROB GRO9 GRIO CR11 GR12 CR13 GR14 GR1S GR16 GR17 GRIS GA19 GR20 GR71 CR72 GVIAO GVO GOI 002 603 G04 G05 G06 G08 G09 GIO Gil G12 G13 G14 C15 G16 G17 GIs 019 C20 G71 G72 HYOSHR ICLAIUOI ICLAIM02 ICLAIM03 ICLAIM04 ICLAIM05 ICLAIM06 ICLAIM07 ICLAIMO0 ICLAIM09 ICLAIMY1 ICLAIMI ICLAIM12 ICLAIM13 tCLAIMI4 ICLAIM15 ICLAIM16 ICLAIM17 ICLAIMIa ICLAIMl1 ICLAIM20 IUAT IN INEED INEED09 INEED12 INEED13 INVRATE IOROI IOR02 IOR03 IOR04 IOR05 IOR06 IORO0 IORO9 IORI IORIl IOR12 IOR13 IOR14 IOR15i IOR16 IOR17. IOR18 IOR19 IOR20 IOR71 IOR72 1001 1002 1003 1004 1005 1006 1008 1009 1010 1011 1012 1013 1014 I015 1016 1017 1018 1019 1020 1071 1072 IRESID ISHROI ISHR02 ISHR03 ISHR04 ISHRO5 TSHRO6 ISHR07 ISHRO8 ISHRO9 I ISHRIO ISHRII ISHRI2. ISHR13 ISHR14 ISHR15 ISHR16 ISHR17 ISHRI8 ISHR19 ISHR20 101 1? 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 III 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 K KOI K02 K03 K04 K05 K06 K07 K08 KOS9 K10 Kl K12 K13 K14 KNIS 16 K17 K18 K19 K20 LOI L02 L03 L04 L05 L06 L07 LOS L09 LID Lil L12 L13 L14 L15 L16 L17 L18 L19 L20 M MILINV MLOSS MOI M02 M03 M04 M05 M06 MUB MO9 MID Mll M12 M13 M14 M15 M16 H17Y18 Hl19 U20 M71 U72 .N NADJ NIA NMP NMPREAL NUPSHROI NMPSHRO NMPSHRO3 NMPSHRO4 NMPSHRO5 NMPSHR06 NMPSHR07 NMPSHRO8 NMPSHRO9 MMPSHR1O NMPSHRII NMPSHR12 NUPSHR13 NMPSHR14 NMPSHRI5 NMPSHR16 NMPO1 NMP02 NMP03 NMP04 NMP05 NUP06 NMP07 NMP0B NMPO0 NMPIO NMPII NMP12 NMP13 NMP14 NMPIS NMP16 NOSHROI NQSHR02 NQSHRO3 NOSHRO4 NQSHR05 NOSHR06 NQSHR07 NOSHRO8 NQSHRO9 NQSHRIO NQSHIRIl NQSHR12 NQSHR13 NQSHR14 NQSHR15 NQSHR16 NQSHR17 NQSHR18 NQSHR19 NOSHR20 NOO1 N002 N003 N004 N005 NQ06 NQ07 NQ08 NQ09 NQ110 NOI N012 N013 N014 NQIS N116 NQ17 NQ18 NQ19 N020 NTR PAIBAR PAIZ PA103 PAR PBAR PH102 PH103 PHI05 PH106 PHI08 PH109 PHIIO PHIII PH112 PH1I13 PHI71 PH172 PK POP PROF PROFO1 PROF02 PROF03 PROF04 PROFO5 PROFOS PROF07 PROFOS PROFO9 PROFIO PROFII PROF12 PROF13 PROF14 PROF15 PROF16 PROF17 POI P02 P03 P04 P05 P06 P07 P08 P09 PIO Pll P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 Pl7 P18 P19 P20 P71 P72 OSMAT SOI 0S02 QS03 0S04 OS05 0S06 OSO? qSOS 09 QSlO QSlI OS12 QS13 QS14 OS15 0516 OS17 OSIS QS19 QS20 Q571 0S72 REALPCC RENT SD SF SK SKOISCR SKOOI SKSHR SKOI SK02 SK03 SK04 SK05 SK06 SK07 5S08 SK09 SK10 SKII SK12 SK13 SK14 SK15 SK16 SK17 SK18 SK19 SK20 T VRAT17 WB WBAR W8OI W802 WB03 W804 WB05 W06 W807 W08 WB09 W6810 WB1 W812 W813 W814 WB15 W1B1 w1B7 W118 W519 W920 WK WKOI WK02 WK03 WK04 WK05 WK06 WK07 WK08 WK09 WK10 WKI WK12 WK13 WK14 WK15 WK16 WK17 WK18 W1l9 WK20 WOI W02 W03 w04 W05 W06 W07 W08 W09 WIO Wil W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17 WI1119 gW20 X XLOSS AMFD XO X(02 X03 X04 X05 x06 X08 X09 X10 Xli X12 X13 X14 X15 XIS X17 X18 X19 X20 X71 X72 Y YH ZOI ZOZ Z03 Z04 ZOS Z06 ZO7 ZOO ZO9 ZIO ZI Z12 Z13 Z14 ZIS Z16 Z17 18 Zig Z20 Z71 Z72 EXOGENOUSt, 09 a AFUELOI AFUEL02 AFUEL03 AFUEL04 AFUEL0S AFUEL06 AFUEL07 AFUELO AFUEL09 AFUELIO AFUELII AFUEL12 AFUEL13 AFUEL14 6 AFUEL15 AFUELIG AFUEL17 AFUELI8 AFUEL19 AFUEL20 AGINT03 AGINT08 AGINT09 AGINTIO AGINTII AGINT12 AGINT13 AGINT14 AGINTI5 AGINT16 AGINT17 AGINT18 AGINT19 ACINT20 AK02 AK03 AK05 AK06 AK07 AK08 AK09 AK1O AKI1 AK12 AK13 AK14 0 AKIS AK16 AK17 AK18 AKI9 AK20 AK4A AK4H ALPHAO1 ALPHA02 ALPHA04 ALPHA05 ALPHA06 ALPHAD7 ALPHA08 ALPHA09 ALPHA1 w ALPHA1I1 ALPHA12 ALPHA13 ALPHA14 ALPHA15 ALPHA16 ALPHA17 ALPHAI1 ALPHA19 ALPHA20 AL02 AL03 AL04 AL05 ALO0 AL07 AL08 AL09 ALIO ALII AL12 AL13 AL14 AL15 AL16 AL17 AL18 1AL9 AL20 AO101 A0102 A0103 A0104 A0105 A0108 A0107 A0108 A0109 AOIIO AOIII A0112 A0113 A0114 A0115 A0116 A0117 A0118 A0119 A0120 A02 A0201 A0202 A0203 A0204 A0205 A0206 A0207 A0208 A0209 A0210 A0211 A0212 A0213 A0214 A0215 A0216 A0217 A0218 A0219 A0220 A03 A0302 A0303 A0304 A0305 A0306 A0307 A0308. A0309 A0310 A0311 A0312. A0313. A0314 A0315 A0316 A0317 A0310 A0319 A0320. A04 A0401 A0402, A0403 A0404 A0405 A0406 A0407 A0408 A0409 A0410 A0411 A0412 A0413 A0414 A0415 A0416 A0417 A0418 A0419 A0420 AOS A0507 A06 A0601 A0662 A0603 A0604. AO6O5 A0606 A0807 A0608A Ao60oB A0609 AO6IO A0611 A0612 A0613. A0614 A015 A0616 AO617 A061O A0619 A0620 A07 AOl A0802 A0803 A0804 AO8OS A006 A0807 ABOSO A0809 AO8iO AO811 A0612 A0013 A0814 AoIIS AOBi6 A08157 AOI8 A0819 A0820 A09 A0902 A0903 A0904 A0905 A0906 A0907 A0908 A0909 A0910- A0911 A0912'' A0913 A0914 A0915 A0916 A0917 A0918 A0919 A0920 AIO A1002 A1003 A1004 A1005 AlOOB A1007 AIOOI A1009 AIOIO A10li A1012 A1013 A1O04 A1015 AlOiB A1017 AtOll AlOlS A1020 All A1102 Al1O3 A1104 A1105 A1106 A1107 AliOB A1109 AllO Allil A1112 Alll3 A1114 Al115 AHIB1 A1117 AllS Ai1t9 A1120 A12 A1202 Al203 A1204 A1205 A1206 A1207 A1208 Ai29O A1210 A1211 A1212 Al2i3 Al2l4 A1215 Al216 A1217 A12l8 A1219 A1220 Ai3 A1302 A1303 A1304 A1305 A1306 A1307 A1308 A1309 A13iO A1311 A1312 A1313 A1314 A1315 A1316 A1317 A1318 A1319 A1320 A14 A1402 A1403 A1404 A1405 A1406 A1407 A1408 A1409 A1410 A1411 A1412 A1413 A1414 A1415 A1416 A14i7 A1418 A1419 A1420 A15 A1502 A1503 AIG04 AISOS A15O A15O7 A1508 A1509 Ai510 A151i A1512 A1513 A1614 Al5is AISI1 A5l17 AllIS A1519 A1520 AIG A1602 A1603 A1604 . A1605 A1606 A1607 A1608 A160AAiBIO A1611 A1612 A1613 A1614 A1615 A1616 A1617 AISI1 A16l1 A1620 A17 A1702 A1703 A1704 A1705 A1706 A17O7 A1708 A1709 A1710 A1711 A1712 A1713 A1714 A1715 A1716 A1717 A1718 Al7ls A1720 All AIB A20 A7101 A7102 A7104 A7105 A7106 A7108A A7108i A7114 A7115 A7201A A72018 A7202A A72020 A7203A A72036 A7204A A7204B A7205A A7205B A7206A A7206B A7207A A72070 A7208A A72080 A7209A A7209B A7210A A7210B A7211A A7211B A7212A A7212B A7213A A7213B A7214A A7214B A7215A A7215B A7216A A7216B A7217A A7217B A7218A A72188 A7219A A72198 A7220A A72208 BETAI BETA2 BOI 802 B03 504 505 B06 BOa B09 B10 Bll B12 B13 B14 515 516 B17 0ll. Big 820 871 572 COEOI CDE02 CDE03 CDE04 CDE05 CDE06 CDEOs COEO9 COEIO CDEII CDE12 COE13 CDE14 CDE15 CDE16 COE17 COElIs CDE19 CDE20 COE71 CDE72 DOLNTRBS DTGTO2 DTGTO3 OTGTO0 OTGTI0 OTGTII DOI D02 003 D00 006 D08 D09 D10 DlI D12 013 D71 D72 EO1 E02 E03 E04 E05 EO EE08 E09 EIO Ell EI2 E13 E14 El5 ElS E17 EIB E19 E20 E71 E72 HYDPOW INTEREST L LTSHR MSHAREOI MSHAREO2 MSHARE03 MSHARE04 MSHARE05 MSHARE06 MSHAREOS MSHARE09 MSHAREIO MSHAREII MSHARE12 MSHARE13 MSHARE14 MSHARE15 MSHARE16 MSHARE17 MSHARE1I MSHAREI9 MSHARE2O MSHARE71 MSHARE72 MU NGROW PHI04 PHI14 PHI15 PHIIS PHI17 PHIlI PH119 PH120 POPGROW QGROWOI QGROWO5 QGROW06 OGROWO7 RHOOl RHOO2 RHOO3 RHOO4 RHOOS RHOO6 RHOO7 RHOOB RHOO9 RHOIO RHO0I RHO12 RH-13 RH014 RHO15 RHO16 RH017 RHOI RHO19 RHO20 SMALLF SMALLG SMALLR TGROW WPINDX WPINDXOI WPINDX02 WPINDX03 WPINDX05 WPINDX06 WPINDXO XSHAREO1 XSHARE02 XSHARE03 XSHARE04 XSHARE05 XSHARE06 XSHAREO0 XSHAREO9 XSHARE1O XSHAREII XSHARE12 XSHARE13 XSHARE14 XSHARE15 XSHARE16 XSHARE17 XSHARElB XSHAREI9 XSHARE20 XSHARE71 XSHARE72 XTGTO9 XTGTI2 XTGT13 XOIMAX ZETAOI ZETA02 ZETA04 ZETA05 ZETAO0 ZETA07 ZETAOB ZETAO9 ZETAIO ZETAII ZETA12 ZETA13 ZETA14 ZETA15 ZETAl6 ZETA17 COEFFICIENT: A1802 A1803 A1804 A1805 A1806 A1807 AilOl A1809 AIllO AISII A1812 A1813 A1814 A1815 A1816 A1817 AlIGS A1819 A120 A1902 A1903 A1904 Al905 A1906 A1907 AlOOl A1909 A9liO AlOll AI912 A1913 A1914 A1915 A1916 Al917 A191B 0% A1919 A1920 A2002 A2003 A2004 A2005 A2006 A2007 A2008 A2009 A2010 A2011 A2012 A2013 A2014 A2015 A2016 A2017 A2018 A2019 A2020 CAL05 CAL06 CAL71 CFMOI CFMO2 CFM03 CFM04 CFMO5 CFM0S CFMOS CFMO9 CFM1O CFMIl CFMI2 CFM13 CFMi4 CFMI5 CFMI6 CFM17 CFM1I8 CFMI9 CFM20 CFM71 CFM72 CFXOI CFX02 CFX03 CFXO4 CFX05 CFXO6 0FX08 CFX09 CFX10 CFXII CFXi2 CFX13 CFX14 CFX15 CFX1O CFX17 CFX18 CFX19 CFX20 CFX71 CFX72 DAMP DAMPI DAMP2 OAMP3 DELTA0I DELTA02 OELTA03 DELTA04 DELTA05 OELTA06 DELTA07 DELTAO6 DELTA09 DELTAIO DELTAIi DELTA12 DELTA13 DELTA14 DELTA15 DELTA16 DELTA17 DELTA1I DELTA19 DELTA20 EXCHBS KAPPA MILSHRO9 MILSHR14 SMALLS

EQUATIONS

PRODUCTION (IN SUPPLY-DRIVEN SECTORS : QS IN OTHER SECTORS IS DETERMINED BY DEMAND IN MATERIAL BALANCE EQUAT1ONS BELOW) 1: QSO0 * (l+QGROWOI)OQS0I(-I)

21 QS02 * K02(-I)/AK02+A02

3: QS03 = K03(-l)/AK03+A03

4: QS05 = (l+QGROW05)#QS05(-I)

5: QS06 = (I+QGROWOG)'QSO6(-I) .

6: QS07 * (l+QGROwO7)$QSO7(-:)

7: QS71 - (1-LTSHR)OQS07 . &

5: qS72 = LTSHR*QSO7 91 Q09 a K08(-1)/AK08+A08 10: 0 S09 aK09(-l)/AK09+AOO :11i QS10 K1O(-,1)/AK1O+A1O 12: QSII = Kll(-I)/AKII+AII 13: QS12 a K12(-1)/AK12+A12 14t QS13 a K13(-1)/AK13+A13 EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION: 15I L02 a ALO2*QS02 16: L03 a AL03*QS03

17: L04 = AL04*QS04 l8s LOS - AL05DQS0505

19, LOS - AL06*QS06

20: L07 = AL07*QS07

21t LOS * ALO8OSO5 22: L09 AL09*QS09 23: L1O ALIO*QS10

24t LIl * ALII*QSii

25: L12 U AL12'0012

26, L13 a AL13*Q$13 I 27: L14 a AL144QS14 0'

261 L15 a AL15QS15I

29: L16 a AL16*QS16 308 L17 a AL17*QS17 31t LIS a ALi8*QS18 32: L19 - AL19*QSI9

33: L20 a AL20'QS20

34: LOI 2 L-CL02+LO3+L04+L05+L06+L07+L08+LO9+LIO+L1l+L12+LI3tLI4+L15+L16+L17+L18+L19+L20)

35: POP = C+POPGROW)'POP(-1)

36: PAR a L/POP

PRICES (DETERMINATION OF PRICES. LABELLEO Z IN PRICE UPDATING BLOCK, LAGGED ONE PERIOD TO REDUCE SIMULTANEITY): 37: PO1 = ZOI(-1) . m m 38: P02 a Z02(-1) 1&

39: P03 =.Z03(-1) a X bx 40: P04 = Z04(-I)

41: . P05 = Z05(-I) 42: P06 = Z06(-1) 43 P07 * Z07(-1)

44, P71 P07

45, P72 = P07

46: P08 a ZOa(-I)

47: P09 m Zoe(-I)

48, PlO = ZIO(-l)

49. Pll a Zll(-l)

50 ' P12 = Z12(-1)

51, P13 a Z13(-1)

52t P14 = Z14(-1)

53s P15 = Z15(-1)

54: PIG * Zle(-I)

55: P17 * Z17(-1)

56: Pie a ZIS(-1)

57: P19 x z19(-I)

58: P20 a Z20(-1) SECTORAL NET OUTPUT: SOS NQOI =QSOli(PGl-(AOIOISP01+AO201$PO2+AO3014PO3+AG4010PO4+Ao501OP05+AoGoI*PO5tA710itP71+A7201OP72+AoaoIOPOa+Ao901OP09+ AIO2O*PIO+AIIOI*PII+AI201*P12+A1301P13P+A14010P14+A15012P15+A16012P16+A17012P17+A190B*P1B+A190S*P19+A20012P20))

601 NQ02 aQS02*(PO2-(AO102$PO1+AO202SP02+AO302$PO3+AO402OP04+AO5024PO5+AO602$PO6+A7102*P71+A72G2$P72+AO802*00a+AOiQ24PO9+ A10024PI04A1 1024PI l+A12o24Pl2+Ai3o2*Pl3+Ai4o2*PI4+A1502*P)s+AI602OP16+AI7024P)7+AI802*PI6+Algo2*Plg+A2oo2sP20))

61: NQO3 = QS03*(PO3-(Ao1034POltAo203OP02+Ao303*PO3+Ao403OP04+Ao5030POS+Ao6o3*PO6fA7103*P7l+A7203*P72+Ao8034POssAo9030POs+ A1003*PIO+A1103*P1I+A1203*P12+A1303*P13+A1403*P14+Also3*P15+A1603*P16+A1703*Pl7+A1803SP18+A1903$P19+A2OO3*P20))

62: NQO4 = QSO4*(PO4-(AO1040PO1+AO204OP02+AO3044PO3+AO404$PO4+AO604OP05+AO604OP06+A71044P71+A7204*P72+AO8044POB+AO904*PO9+ A10044PIO+AiIO4*Pll+AI204*PI2+AI304OP13+Al4o4$Pl4+Al5O4*Pls+A I 6044P6+AI704*Pl7+A)804*PIs+AIs04$Plg+A2OO4*P20))

63: N005 = QS05*(PUs-(AO 105* POI+Ao205*PO2+Ao305*PO3+Ao4054PO4+Ao5054PO5+Ao605*PO6+A7105*P7l+A72o5*P72+Aosos*PO8+Aos05uPO94 A1005*PIO+AI 105*PI +A1205SP12+Al305*Pl3+A1405SP14+A1505*P15+A1605*Pl6+Al7054P17+A1805Pt8+AA9050P19+A2005OP20))

64: NQ06 a QS06*(P-6-(A0106 PQI+AO206$PO2+AO306OP03+AO406*PO4+AO5O6*PO5+AO606*POG+A7106-P71+A7ZG6$P72+AOBOB*POs+AO9060PO9+ A10060P10+A 106oePIIAI206*Pl 2tA 13060PI3+AI40O*PI4+Alsoe0P1+A 1e60p6PI+A706#Pl7+A18o*I+p1Al90oePI9+A2oo6*P20))

65; NQ07 = QS07$(PO7-(Ao1070POI+AO207OP02+AO307*PO3+AO4074PO4+AO507OP05+AO6070PO6+A7107*P7l+A7207OP72+AO807*POB+AO907*PO9+ 1 A10070PIO+A1107*PII+AI207SP12+A;307.P13+AI407.P14+A1507.P15+Al607SP16+A1707sP17+A18O7*Pt8+A1907'PI9+A2OO7*P20))

66: NQOS = QSOS$(POS-(AO 10*PO +AO20suPO2+AO30sPO3+AD4esPO4+AO50sPOS+AOS$POS+A7108*P71+A72OP72+AO8080POS+AO908POS+ aq0 u A 100B*PIO+A1108'P11+A1208*P12+A1308.P13+A1408*P14tA1508P1 5+A1608P16+A1708*P1P7tA 1808PI8+A1908eP19+A2080P20)) * i

67- NQ09 a QS09$(PG9-(AO1090PO1+AO209OP02+AO309OP03+AO409OP04+AOSGO9P05+AO609OP06+A71090P71+A7209*P72+AOSOSOPOs+AO909OP09+ A1009*P1O+A1 1090P11+A1209*p12+A1309.P13+A1409sp14+A1509eP15+A1609.P16+A1709.P17+A18090P1a+A190o9Plg+A200OBP20)) O x

689 NQIO = QStON(PI0-(A0110*POi+A02104P02+A0310*P03+A04100P04+AO510oPo5+AoG1oPOG+A7110P71+A72loP72+AoBloPoa+Ao910*PO9+ to A1OIO*PIO+A1 IO0PI1+A1210*P12+AA310*P13+AA410*P14+,A510*P15+,A610oPl1+A7IO0PI17+AI8IO*P1B+Al9lOP19+A200OP20)) <

69: NQII a QSII= (Pll-tAOIIIP01+A0211 P02+AO311*PO3+AO411OP04+AO5110PO5+AO6llPOG+A7111*P71+A72ilOP72+AOSII*POS+AO9110P09+ A101 1 P10+A 1 11PI 1+A1211*PI2+AI3114PI3+AI41ISP14+AI511$015+AIGIIOP16+AI711 0PI 7+AIBIIOPIB+Algll*PIs+A20l iSP20))? :~~~~ 1 NQ1 70: NQ12 QS12*(PI2-(AO112*POI+A02124P02+A0312*P03+A04124P04+A05124*P05+A06124P06+A7112AP71+A7212*P72+A0812*P09+A0912*PoQ+: Ailo!2*PlO+A11124Pll+A1212*PI2+A1312OP13+A1412*P14+A15124P15+AI612SP16+A1712$P17+A81624P16+A1912*Pl9+A2012OP20))

71: NQ13 = QS13*(P13-(AO113 POI+AO21*3P02+AO3135PO3+AO4153PO4+AO513*PO5+A6A13*PO6+A7113*P71+A72135P72+A0813SP08,A0913ePO9+ A1013*P1O+A11135Pl 1+A12135P12+Al3135P13+A1413P14+A1513P15+A16135P16+A1713¶Pl7+.A813*P18+A1913*P19+A2O13*P20)) 72: NQi4 = QS14*(PI4-(AO1146POI+A02146PO2+AO314*P03+A04146P04+A0514*PO5+A0614P.OS+A71145P71+A7214*P72+A08146POI+A0914*PO9+ A10147P1O+AI1147P1l+A1214*P12+A1314*P13+A1417*P14+A1514eP15+AI614PI6+A1714*P17+A1814P8I+A1914Pp19+A2014OP20))

73: NQIS a QS15*(P185-CAO118POI+A02159PO2+AO3158PO3+A0415*P04+A05158P05+A05158P06+A7115*P71+A72158P72+A081*P08+AO915P09+ A1015*PlO+A1115*Pll+A1215*P12+A1315$P13+A1415OP14+A1515*P15+Alel54PPl+A7175$P17tA1815*P18+A1915*P19+A2015*P20))

74: NQIe a Q516¢(PIS-(A01160POl+A0216*P02+A03160PO3+A0416*P04+A0516$P05+A06169POS+A71150P71+A7216*P72+A08160P0B+A0916P09o+ A10160PlO+A11160Pll+Al216*P12+A1316$P13+A1416$P14+A1516$P15+AIS6l6P16+A1716*P17+A1816eP1B+A1916*P19+A2016OP20))

75t NQ17 a QS17$(P17-(A01170POI+A0217$P02+A0317$P03+A0417OP04+AG517OP05+AO517*P08+A71170P71+A7217*P72+A08170P06+A0917OP09+ A1017$PIO+A1117*Pll+A1217*PI2+A1317*P13+A14170P14+A1517$P15+A16174P16+A1717*P17+A1817*P1B+A1917!P19+A2017*P20))

76: NQ16 = QS18*(P18-tA011B*POl+A0218$P02+A03184P03+A0418$P04+A05184P05+AOS18vP06+A7118*P71+A7218*P72+A0B1BOP08+A0918mP09+ Al0184PIO+AI118*Pll+AI218*P)2+AI318OPI3+AI418mPI4+AI51B*PI5+AI618$PI6+AI7180PI7+AI8180PlB+Al918mPI9+A2018eP20))-

77; NQI9 = qs 1*(P19-tA01194POllAO2194PO2+AO3194PO3+AO419$PO4+AO519OP05tAO61gaPO6+A7119*P71+A72l9*P72+AO8l9mPO8+AO9l9OP09+ A1019*PlO+AI119*PIl+A1219*P12+A1319*p13+A¶419eP14+A15190P15+AI619ePp9+A1719sP17+AIS1g.PIs+Al9l9gP19+A2Ol9gP20))

78.- NQ20 = QS20$(P20-(A0120*POl+AO220*P02+A0320*P03+A0420$P04+A0520$P05+A062O*PP06A7120*P71+A7220*P72+A6820*P08+A0920*P09+ A10204PlO+A1120*Pll+AI220*P12fA1320*P13+A1420mP14+A1520$P15+A1620mP20+A1720*P17+A1820*Pl8+A1920*P19+A2020eP20))78:~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. .Q2 NATIONAL INCOME (NOMINAL AND REAL GOP)s 79: V = NQ01+NQ02+NQ03tNQ04+NQOS+NQ06+NQ07+NQO8+NQ09+NQlO+NQII+NQ12+NQ13+NQl4+NQl5+NQl6+NQ17+NQ1B+NQ19+NQ20-XLOSS-MLOSS

80: XLOSS * POXOl+P02*X02+P0X03+P04$X04+P05*X05+P06¢X06+P71eX7t+P72$X72+P0B*X08+PO90XOg*PIOXIO+PlleXll+P12*X12+P139 I X13+P140Xl4+P15*X15+P160X16+P17(1X7+P18*Xl8+P19*X19+P2OX20-D0LX'EXCHR

81: MLOSS * -(POleMOl+PO20MO2+PO3*MO3+PO4$MO4+PO50MO5+PO6$MG6+P7leM7l+P72OM72+PO8*MOB+PO90M09+PlO*MlO+Pll*Mll+Pl2*Ml2+Pl30 M13+P14*M14+P15*M15+P1G*M16tP17sM17+P18M18.+P1gM19+P20OM2O)+DOLM.EXCHR

82: GDP = (COI+GOlIO10I)/POI+XOI-MOI+(C02+G02+1002)/P02+X02-M02+(C03+G03+1003)/P03+X03-M03+(C04+G04+1004)/P04+X04-M04+(COS +G05+1005)/P05+X05-M05+(C06+G06+1006)/P06+XOG-M06+(C71+G71+1071)/P71+X71-M71+(C72+G72t1072)JP72+X72-M72+(COS+G08+I008) /P08+X08-M08+tCO9+GO9+1009)/P09+X09-M09+(CIO+GlO+1010)/PIO+X10-MIO+(Cll+Gll+IOll)/Pll+Xll-Mll+(C12+G12+1012)/P12+X)2- M)2+(C13+G13+1013)/P)3+X13-M13+(C14+G14+1014)/P14+X14-Mi4+(C15+G15+1015)/P15+X15-M15+(C16+016+1016)/P16+X16-M16+(C17+ 017+1017)/P17+X17-M17+(C13+G18+1018)/P18+XIS-M18+(C19tG19+lI09)/P19+Xl9-M1g+(C20+G20+1020)/P20+X20-M20 83, PBAR = V/GDP

84: GDPPERCA = GDP/POP01000 USES OF NATIONAL INCOME: 85: SD = MU*V

86: GN = SMALLGO(V-SO) 87: CN = Y-SD-GN 88: IN * SD+SF+NTR-DS

89: INVRATE = INiV m

90: SF = DOLSF*EXCHR

91: NTR DOLNTR'EXCHR to 92: DS DOOLDS*EXCHR I4 DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOMe: 93: PROF = SD+GN-SMALLS'YH-DEPRI1-DEPR19+XLOSS+MLOSS 94, WS * cN/(1-SMALLS)-RENT

95: Yt = WB+RENT

96: WOl = ALPHAOI*W03

97. W0z = ALPHA02*W03

Bar W04 a ALPHA04*W03

99: Wos = ALPHA05'W03

100: W06 = ALPHA06*WO3 tail W07a ALPHA07*Wo3

102s Wos = ALPHAOIOW03

031 W09 = ALPHA09*W03

104: W1O = ALPHAI0W03

105: Wil = ALPHAII*W03

106: W12 a ALPHA12*WO3

107: W13 a ALPHA13*W03

108: W14 = ALPHA14*WO3

109: WIS = ALPHA15*W03

110: W16 = ALPHA16*W03 q0

111: W17 = ALPHA17*W03

112: W18 = ALPHA18*W03

113t W19 = ALPHA19*W03

1143 W20 = ALPHA20OW03

115: WeOl = WOl*LOl.

116: WB02 * W02'L02

117: WB03 = W03*L03

118, W804 = W04*L04

119: WBO5 m W05*L05

120: W806 = W06OL06

121: W5O7 = Wo7L077

122: woOS a WOSeLOS m

M23: WBo9 = W09'LO9 :

124: WBeO = WIO*LIO t

125: Well = Wll*LII

126: WB12 = W124L12 127: WB13 = W13L"13 128: WB14 a W14'L14

129: WB15 a W15BL15

130, WElS = WI8OLIS

131: WB17 = W17'L17

132: WB18 = W18*LlB 133: WB19 n W19OL19

134i WB20 = W20*L20 135: WB ' WBOM+WBO2MWBO3+WBO4+WB05+WBO6+WBO7+WBO8+WB09+W91O+WBll+WB12+WB13+WB14+WBIB+WBI6+WBI7+WBI8+WB19+WB2O

136: WBAR = WO/L

1372 PROFOI u NQOW-WBO1

138, PROF02 = NQO2-WB02

139: PROF03 = NQ03-WB03 140: PROF04 N0O4-WB04

141t PROFO0 = NQO5-WB05

142: PROFO - NQ06-W606

143: PROF07 = NQ07-WB07 0

144: PROF08 a NOOB-WBOB 145: PROF09 a NQO9-WB09 146, PROFIO = NQIO-WB1O

147: PROFIl = NQII-WBIt

148: PROF12 a NQI2-WB12

149: PROF13 a NQ13-WB13 150, PROF14 = NQ14-W814

151: PROFIS = NQUS-WBIS 152: PROF16 - NQ16-WB16

153: PROF17 = NQ17-WBI7

154: DEPRIa = NQIB-WBI8

155: DEPR19 = NQ19-WB19 156: RENT = NQ20-WB20 ii 157: PA103 = PROF03/(K03(-l)PK) N

158: PAIBAR = PROF/C(K(-1)-KIB(-1)-K19(-1)-K20(-l))*PK)

PUBLIC AND HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION COMPOSITION: 159: GOI * EOI*GN 160, G02 = E02*GN 161, G03 = E03GN

162: G04 * E04*GN

163 G05 = E05GN

164: G06 = E06OGN

165: G71 a E71'GN 186: G72 = E720GN

167: GOB * E08*GN

168: G09 = E09*GN 169: G10 = EIOGN

170: Gl6 = EII*GN 171: G12 a E12*GN

172: G13 = E13*GN

173: G14 = E144GN

174: G15 = E15'GN

175: G16 * E16*GN

176: G17 a E17*oN

177: G18 u ElOGNN 171: G19 * E19*GN 179s G20 = E20*GN

180t CPI = CN(-1)/(COI(-1)/POI+C02(-1)/P02+C03(-1)/PO3+C04(-1)/P04+C05(-1)/PO5+Cos(-1)1PO6+C71(-1).P71+C72(-1)/P72tCOS(-1)/ P08+CO9(-l)/PO9+C1O(-l)/PIO+CII(-l)/Pll+C12(-l)/P12+C13(-l)/P13+Cl4(-l)/P14+C15(-l)/PIS+CI e(-l)/P16+Cl7(-l)/P17+C18(-I )/P18tCI9(-1)/PI9+C20(-l)/P20)

IBIS REALPCC a CN/POP/CPI*1000 ...... TWENTY.NEXT EQUATIONS DETERMINE INCREMENTAL CLAIMS; 182, CCLAIMO1 = COI(-)*(POI/POD1-l)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+COEOI*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-'l)-)

183: CCLAIM02 a C02(-1)CP02/P02(-)*(POP/POP(-I))( 1+CDE02*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-I)-I))-I)

184: CCLAIM03 * C03(-C)SCPO3/P03C-1)*CPOP/POP(-1))C1+COE03*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-I)-I))-I)

185: CCLAIM04 = C04(-1)C(P04/P04(-1)*(POP/POPC-I))*(ltCDE04*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-l))-1)

186: CCLAIM05 = C05(-1) 'P05/PO5(-I)(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE05C(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) q 187: CCLAIM06 = C06(-1)*(P06/P06(-l)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE06'(REALPCC/REALPCC(-I)-I))-I) O X 188, CCLAIM71 a C71(-1)e(P71/P71(-1)*(POP/POP(1-))*(1+CDE71$(REALPCC/REALPCC(-I)-I))-I) to

159: CCLAIM72 a C72(-1)$(P72/P72(-l)*(POP/POP(-1))*(i+CDE72*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-l)-1))-1) 190: CCLAIMO8 a C0B(-I)O(PO8BPD8(-1)C(POP/POPC-l))*(l+CDEO8*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-l))-l) 191: CCLAIMO9 = C09(-1)O(PO9/POB(-1)*(POPiPOP(-1))O(1+CDEO9*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-i)-1))-1)

192: CCLAIMIO = CIOC-1)*(P10/P1O(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))eCl+CDE1OCREALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-l)

1934 CCLAIM11 a CIIC-I)O(P12/Pll(-l)S(POP/POP(-1))*C(+CDEI2*(REALPCC/REALPCCC-l)-1))-1) 1945 CCLAIM12 a C12(-1)S(P12/P12(-I)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE12C*REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 195: CCLAIM134 C13(-I )(P13/P13(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE134(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-l))-I) 197: CCLAIM14 = C14(-l)*(P1I4/P4(-¶)*(POP/POP(-1))e(1+COE14*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 197t CCLAIM16 = C16(-1)S(P15/P15(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+COEIS*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1)

19B. CCLAlM16 a C16t-l)O(P16/P16(-l)$(POP/POP(-1 ) ) ( +COE16$(REALPCC/REALPCC(-l)-l))-l) 199: CCLAIM17 a C17C-1)*(P17/P17(-1)*(POP/POP(-I))*(1+CDE17e(REALpCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-l) 200: CCLAIMI8 C1B(-l)*(PlIOP1B(-I)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE18S(REALPCC/REALPCC(-l)-1))-1)

201: CCLAIMI9 = C19(-l)*(P19/P19(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))S(1+CDE19B(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-l) 202: CCLAIM20 = C20(-1)*(P20/P20(-1)*(POP/POP(-3))*(C+CDE20*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-l)-1))-I) NEXT TWENTY...... ONE EQUATIONS RECONCILE SECTORAL CLAIMS WITH CN AND DETERMINE SECTORAL CONSUMPTION: 203: CCLAIM = CCLAIMOl+CCLAIM02+CCLAIh03+CCLAIM04+CCLAIM05+CCLAIM06+CCLAIM71+CCLAIM72+CCLAIM0B+CCLAIM09+CCLAIMIO+CCLAIMll+ CCLAIM12+CCLAIM13+CCLAIM14+CCLAIMl5+CCLAIM16+CCLAIM17+CCLAIM18.CCLAIM19+CCLAIM20

204, CO1 = CO1(-I)+CCLAIMOI/CCLAIMe(CN-CN(-1))

205: C02 = C02(-1)+CCLAIM02/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 206: C03 - C03(-C)+CCLAIM03/CCLAIMO(CN-CN(-1))

207: C04 a C04(-1)+CCLAIM04/CCLAIMO(CN-CN(-I))

208: C05 = C05(-1)+CCLAIM05/CCLAIM.(CN-CN(-I))

209: COS a C06(-l)+CCLAIM06/CCLAIM.(CN-CN(-1)) 210: C71 = C71(-1)+CCLAIM71JCCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1))

211: C72 = C72(-l)+CCLAIM72/CCLAIM.(CN-CN(-I))

212: COS = C08(-1)+CCLAIMO8/CCLAIMO(CN-CN(-1))

213: C09 a C09(-l)+CCLAIMO9/CCLAIMe(CN-CN(-l)) 214: Ci1 = C1O(-1)+CCLAIM1IOCCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1))

215: Cll a Cll(-1)+CCLAIMII/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-I)) 216: C12 a C12C-l)+CCLAIM12/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-l))

217: C13 = C13(-l).CCLAIM13/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 215t C14 = C14(-l)+CCLAIM14/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1))

219: C15 a C15(-1)+CCLAIM15/CCLAIM$(CN-CN(-13) I

220t CIS = C16(-1)+CCLAIM16/CCLAIMs(CN-CN(-I)) MIW 221: C17 = C17(-1)+CCLAIM17/CCLAIM(CN-CN(-l))

222: C1I a CIS(-l)+CCLAIMIB/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-i)) 223, C19 a CIB(-1)+CCLAIM19/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-I))

224, C20 - C20(-1)+CCLAIM20/CCLAIMC(CN-CN(-i))

ALLOCATION OF INVESTMENT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN: 225: SK = SKSHR*IN 226: Fl a IN-SK SKOISCR...... EXPLAINED BELOW , 227: SKSHR - (SK(-I)+SKDISCR(-I))/IN(-I)

228: SKOOI = IF XOI LE XOIMAX THEN D01*0.75*(QS01-QS0l(-1))0P0 ELSE POI*(QS0I+MOI-XO1MAX-DDOI+SKOO1/POI) ONE-PERIOO...... LAGS ON QS REDUCE SIMULTANEITY: 229: QSMAT a QS02(-1)*0S03(-1)+0SOS(-1)+QSOG(-I)+QS07(-1)+QSOSC-I)+QS09(-1)+QSIO(-1)+QS1I(-1)+QS12(-1)+QS13(-1)

230: PH102 u D02*QS02(-1)/QSMAT

231t PHI03 = 003*QS03(-1)/QSMAT 232: PH105 = D05*QS05(-1)/QSMAT 233: PH106 - D06*QS06(-1)/QSMAT 234: PH171 a O714QS71(-1)/QSMAT 235: PH172 = 072*QS72(-1)/QSMAT 236: PHI08 = 008*QS08(-1)/QSMAT

237: PHIO9 a 009QSO9(-1)/QSMAT

238, PH110 = DOO*QSIO(-1)/QSMAT W

239t PHIII = D11QS11(-1)/QSMAT 240: PH112 - D012QS12(-I)/QSMAT

241: PH113 - 013*QS13(-1)/QSMAT 242: 1001 = SK001+B01FI

243: 1002 = PHI02*(SX-SKM0O)+302*FI

244: 1003 = PHtO3'(5K-SKOOI)+BO30FI

245: 1004 a PHI04*(SK-SK0O)+804PF

246: 1005 = PHI05*(SK-SK001)+5059FI

247: 1006 a PH105(SK-SKOOI)+*06DFI

248: 1071 - PH171*(SK-SK01)+t71*FI 1

249: 1072 = PH172(5K5K001)+B72*F1 mj 250: 1008 = PH1086 (SK-SKO0I)+608*FI ]CX

251: 1009 a PH109*(SK-SKI01)+009*FFI 0

252: 1010 = PHI1O*(SK-SK001)+BI0OFI

253: 1011 * PHI11*(SK-SK001)*011*FI 2543 1012 * PH112*(SK-SKOOI)+B12$F1

255t 1013 a PH113*(S-SK(oO1)+813FX 256: 1014 =PHI1A*(SK-SK001)+B140FI

257a 1015 a PHI15*(SK-SKOOI)+BI5*FI 258: 1016 PHIIG*(SK-SKOOI)4B16SF1

259. 1017 a PHI117(SK-SKOOI)+8170FI

260t 1018 -PH1I8*(SK-SKO01)+D18*F1

261: 1019 = PH119*(SK-SKOOI)+B19*FI

262, 1020 =PHIZO*(SK-SKO0I)+B20*F1

D OM E S T IC D E M A N O FOR P R OD U C T S OF EACH S E C T O R : 0 0 263. DDOI A O+A0102 Q502+A0103QQS04+A 1050QS0A1 71os+7+A01oQsoS+Ao109sQSOs+AOIIOOQ51101aQS05QSOS+A A0111*QS II+AO1 24QS12+A01 13QS13+Aoli4$Qsi4+A01150QS15+Ao1160QSIG+Ao117*QS17+A01160a5l8+Ao1194Qs19+Ao 1204QS20+[C01+GCI +I001)JP0I

264. D002 u A0201 QSOI+AO20200$02+AO2030QS03+AG2044QSO4+AO205$QSOS*AO2060QS06+AO207$QS07+A020seQSOB+AO209*QS09+AO210OQSI0+ A021 1sQSi+Ao2120QS12+Ao2134Qs3+Ao214!aS14+A021t*QS15+A02 160QS16+A0217'Q517+A021 8*Q5184+A021900S19+A0220*QS20+(C02+G02 +1002)/P02

265: 0003 = A0301*QSOI+Ao302OQSOZ+Ao303*QS03+Ao304*QS04+Ao305*QSOS+Ao30esQSOe+Ao307OQ507+A0308*QSOB+Ao30seQs09+Ao3100QSIO+ A031100S 1tAo3124QS12+Ao313$QS13+Ao3140Qs14+A0315*QS15+Ao3166QS16+Ao317$Qs17+A0318*QSIB +A03194QS19+A0320*QS20+(C03+G03 +1003)/P03

268i DD04 a A0401*oso1+Ao402$Qs02+Ao403*Qs03+AG4040QS04+Ao40s*QS05+Ao406*QSOS+Ao407*0s07+A040s@QSOB+Ao4096QS09+Ao4108QsIo+ 268. 01004)/P040A0411lQs11+Ao4124QS12+Ao4130QS 13+A04140QS14+A04 15QS15+A04 16*51 6+Ao417*QS17+A0418sQs1s+Ao4190QSIO+Ao42GoQs20+(CO4+co4 41004)/P04

267: 0005 = A0501$QSOI+Ao502*QS02+Ao5030QS03+Ao504*QS04+Ao5054QSOS+AosoGOQSOSAo507*Qs07+A0508*QsoS+Ao5090Qso9+Aosl00Qs1o+ I AOS11*QSI1+AO51 2*QS12+Ao513*QS13+Ao5146Qs 14+A051 5QS15+A05 16QSI B+A05 170QS17+A0518$Qs1s+Ao5190QS19+AQ520*Qs20+(CO5+G05 *1005)/PO5

268. 0006 = A0801*QSOI+AO602*QS02+AO603*QtG3+AO6040QSO4+AO6050QS05+AD6060QS08+AD607SQS01+A0B08*QSOB+AO6090QSOs+AOGIO$QsIO+ AO 11OQS1+Ao612SQs12+A0613*Q513+A0614$QS14+A0615'QS1 +AOe16*QSIO+A0617'QS17+A06l8Qsis+Ao6190QSi9+AQ6200QS2o+lCOS+GQS zo10o)/P0o

2es%2 D71 = A?1o1*QSOI+A7io2$QS02+A71030QS03+A7lo4*Qs04+A71050QS05+A7 1050QS06+A7107QsoS7+A7108#QSOB+A7lO9*QS09+A7110OaSI0+ A71 IISSi1+A7I126QS12+A7113*QS13+A7114*QS14+A71 15QSfS+A7116*QSI6A7117*QS171A7118'QSIS+A7119*QS)9'A7120SQS20+CC7I+G71 +1071)/P71

270: 0D72 = A7201 QSOI+A720QS02+A7203$QS03+A720410504+A72054QS05+A720e¢QS06+A7207*Qs07+A720s¢QsoS+A72og*QSO9*A721 OQS 10+ A7211*QS11+A7212*QS12+A721 3'QS13+A7214*QS14+A7215*QS15+A7215SQS16+A72170QSt7+A7218*Qsi8+A7219*QS19+A722O0QSzo+(C72+G72 +1072)/P72

27to 0008 - AOSOl QSOI+Ao8020QS02+Ao8030Qs03+Ao804*QS04+Ao8050QSOB+AosoeSQSOG+Ao807OQS07+A0806*QSOB+Ao8090QS09+Ao8l OSQSIO0 A0811sQS 1 +AO8120QS12+AO8 13QS 13+AD8140QS14+A08 1sOQS15+AO8164QSl+Ao8174Qs17+A08s8isios+AoBl s*QS19+Aa820oQS20+(CO8+Go8 11008)IPOI > D OQ l 272t 0D09 = AQ901 QSO11Ao9020Qs02+AG9030Qs03+Aos040QS04+Ao9050Qs05+AosoGOQ506+Ao907OQs07+A0908$QSOS+Ao9090QSOO+Ao91000SIo m m AO9 1 1 QS 1 1AO91 20QS12+AD913$QS)3J+Ao914$QS 14+AO9150QS 15+Ao9l6*QStS+AosX?OQSt7+A0os8sQsts+ADoa1 QS1s+AGs20*QS20+ (CQ9+G091._ ff +1009)iPO9 . J J

273t 0D10D a A1001 QSOI+AW0020QS02+A10030QS03tA1004$QS04+A1005$QSOS+AIOOSOQSGG+AI007OQS07+A1008 QS08+AI009QSO9+A1010*Q510+ * X A1011*QSII+AI012*QS I2+A10130QS13+A1014$QSt4+A101 SQSt5+At0t6*QS 16+A1017OQS I7+A10180QS18+Atlo1sQSIS+AI0200QSZo+(CIo+Glo +1010)/PlO

6 274: 0011 = A1101'QSOI4AI102'QSO2+A1103*QS03+A1104SQS04+AI105 5*QSOS+A1O6 QSO6+A)1107sQSO7+A1OB*QSOs+A11O9*QS09+A1 10$QSIO+ Allil*QSII+AI112*QS12+AtI130QS13+A11140QS14+AI110S¢QSt+Aiti6*QS'6+AI1170QS17+A111 *QSIs+AlIIIsQSIO+Atl200Qs2o+{Cl 1+G11 +101 1)/PI 1

275i DD1 2 = A 1201 QSO1IA 12020QS02+A1203*QS03+A 1204*QS04+A 12050QS05+A 12064QSO6+A 1207*QS07+A 1208Q5sG+AI2090QSGs+AI2 I0QS10+ A1211tQSII A1212Qs12+AI213$QS13+AI2144QS14 A12150QS15+AI21IBQSIG+AI2170Qs17+A121s*QSIs+AI21960519+A1220Qs20+(CI2+GI2 +1012)IP12 276: 0013 = AI3O14QSI t+AI3O2$QS02+AI303*QS03+A1304QS04+AI305Qs05+A1306$QS06IA1307'QS07+A1308IQSOS+A13090QS09+A1310*QSIO+ A131 1*QSII+A1312*QS12+AI3130Qs13+AI3140Qsl4+A1315$QS15+AI31*QS16+AI317*QS17+A131stQSIS+Al3190Qs9+AI320*QS20+(CI3+Gla +1013)/P13

277: 0014 = A140! QSDI+AI402QS02+AI4034QS03+AI4044QS04+AI405*QS05+AI406QSOG+AI407OQ507+A1408QSOB+A14090QS09+Al410QSIO+ A14110QSli+AI4120QS12+AI4130QS13+AI4144QS14+A1415*QS15+AlI4l6$QS16+AI4170QS17+A1418'QSIB+AI4190QS19+AI420$QS20+(CI4+GI4 +1014)/P14

278l ODI5 a A I SOlQSoI+Al5020QS02+AI5030Qs03+Al504*QS04+AI5050QS05+AI50600SOS+Al50F7QS07+A15o8*QS08+AI5090QS09+AISlosQSIO+ A1511lSa1l+At5i2*QSl2AIA513$QS13+Al5140Qs14+A1515*Qs15+Al51e*Qs16+Al5 17*QS17+A1518*QSIB+AI519SQS19+AI52000520+(CI5+GI5 +1015)/P15 279: OD1 a AIGOIOQSOI+AI6020QS02+A16G3*QSO3+A11 604*QS04+A 1C0*QSOS+A160BQS05+AI607OQS07+A0B0508+A1B090QS09+A181OOQS10+ A161 1 QS1a+A16120QS12+A16130QS I3+AI614$QS14+AIGISQS15+AIGIe*QSl6+Alel7QSI7A1Al618*QsIB+AlGls*QS19+Al620oQS20+(Cle+Gl6 +1016)/Pla

280, DD17= A1701 QSD1+A17024QS02 A17030QS03+A 17044QS04+A 17054QS05+AI7060QS06+AI707'QS07+A1708'QS08+AI709'QSO9+A1710'QSI9+ A171 1QSIl+A1712*QS12+AA713*QS13+A1714*QS14+A1715*QS15+A716e*QS164A1717*QS17+A1718*QSIR+AAI7I9QS19+A1720o*Qs20+(C7+017 +1017)/P17

281- DOI1 - AIOO1eQSOI+AI8020QS02+AI603*QS03+A 1so40QS04+ABAsosQS05*A1806QS064AI8 07OQS07+A1 808*QOSo+AI8090QS09+AIslOOQSIO+ A1811*QSI I1A1812*QSI2+A1813*QS13+A1814*QS14+A181560S05+A18160QS16+A1817*QS17+A18181QS1B+A1819SQS19+A1820@QS2O0(CII4GlI +1018)/P18

282. OD19 n A19010QSGI+A I9024QS02+AI903*QS03+AI904$QS04+AI905Q0SG5+AI90o6QSOG+AI907OQS07+A1so80asos+Al9o9*Qso9+Al9oIQslo+ A191100SII+A 1912*QS12+AI9130QS13+AI9140QS14+AI91500SI5+AI91640SIS+A;9170Q517+A1918*QS18+Algls*QS19+Al920*Qs20+(CI9*Glg +1019)/Pig 283: 0020 - A2001QSOI A2002*QS02+A20030QSO3*A2004$QS04+A20050QS05+A2006*QSOG+A2007*QS07+A2008*Qso8+A20094QS09+A20100QSIO+ 4 A201 1 QSII+A20120QS12*A20130QS13+A2014OQ514+A2015*QSIS+A20160QSIG+A20170QS17+A2018$QSIs+A2019*QS19+A2020*QS20eCC2O+G20 Lo& +1020)/P20 I

M A T E R'I A L B A L A N C E (D E T E R M I N E S T R A D E B A L A N C E I N S U P P L Y- R I V E N S E C T O R S P R OO U C T I O N I N D E M A N O -D R I V E N S E C T 0 R S ): 284: QSOI = 0001tXO1-M01

285: QSO2 = 0002+X02-M02 286: QS03 a OD03+X03-M03

287: QS04 = OD04+X04-M04

288: QS05 = DD05+XO5-M05

289: OSO = DDO0+XO6-UMO 290: QS71 a DD71+X71-M71

291: QS72 = DD72+X72-M72 010 292 QS08 = DD08+X08-MOO W H 293: QS09 a DD09+X09-uOa oht0

294: QSIO = D010+Xi-Om1 N

295: QSII z DlDl+XIl-iMl 296t OS12 - OD12+X12-V12 297t QS13 a 0D13+XI3-MI3 298, QS14 a DD14+X14-M14

299. OSIS = 0DI5DX15-M15 300t QS16 a 0D16+XI6-MI6

301: QS17 a DD17+XI7-MI7 302: QSi8 = Dl08tX18-M18

303, QSIS a DD19+XI9-M19

304, QS20 * DD20+X20-M20 305t GVO a QSOI*QS024QS03+QS04+QS05+QS06+QS07+QS08*QSO9+QS1O+QSI1+QS12+QS13+QS14+QS15+QSI6+QS17+QS18+Q519+QSZO

306: GVIAO = SOI+QS02+QS03+QS04+QS05+QS06+QS07+QS08+QS09+QS10+QSII+QSI24QS13

F O R E I G N T R A D E IN R E A L (C O N S T A N T Y U A N ) T E R M S 307: M04 a MSHARE04ODD04 308: M71 = MSHARE71*0D71

309, M14 z MSHARE14*0014

310t M15 u MSHARE15*(MOI+MO2+M03M05+.MOG.M71+M72+MOB+M094MUO+MII+MI2+M13)

311: M16 = hLSHARE16*(MOl+MO2+MO3+MO5+MO6+M7l1M72+MOBIMOS+MI0*M1l+MI2+MI3)

312, M17 a MSHARE170DD17

313: MIH = MSHARE1B'0D18 314: Ml9 * MSHARE190OD19

315, M20 a MSHARE200DD20

315: M = M01+M02+M03*M04+M05+Ma6+M71+M72+M0eBMO9M10+M11+MI2+M13+M14*Ml5+MI6+MI7lM18+Ml9+M20 ...... 12 EQUATIONS.NEXT KEEP EXPORTS AND IMPORTS ABOVE SPECIFIED MINIMA: 317: XOI = IF (I-XSHAREOI0*QSOI GE (I-MSHAREOI)O*DOI THEN QSOl-(l-MSHAREOIISDDOl ELSE XSHAREOISOSOI 318: X02 = IF (I-XSHARE02)00S02 GE (I-MSHARE02)0DD02 THEN QS02-(t-MSHARE02)D002 ELSE XSHARE020QS02

319: X03 = IF (I-XSHARE03)*QS03 GE (I-MSHARE03)0DD03 THEN QS03-(1-MSHARE03)DD03 ELSE XSHARE03*QS03

320: X05 a IF (I-XSHARE05)*QS05 GE (1-MSHARE05)*00D5 THEN QS05-(1-M5HAREOS)ODD05 ELSE XSHAREO6*QS05

321, X06 a IF (I-XSHARE06)*Q$06 GE (I-MSHARE06)*0006 THEN QS06-(1-MSHARE06)*DD06 ELSE XSHARE06'QSO6

322: X72 = IF (1-XSHARE72)*Q572 GE 01-MSHARE72)*0D72 THEN QS72-(1-SHARE72)*DD72 ELSE XSHARE72*QS72 323: XOB = IF (I-XSHAREGS)SQS08 GE (1-MSHARE08)*DD08 THEN QS08-(1-MSHARE08)*DD08 ELSE XSHiAREOBQSOB _ J

324, X09 * IF (I-XSHAREO9)*QSO9 GE (I-MSHAREO9)*0009 THEN QS09-(1-MSHAREO9)6DD09 ELSE XSHARED9*QSO9 325: XIO * IF (I-XSHAREIO)OQSIO GE (I-MSHAREIO)ODDO1 THEN QSIO-(I-MSHAREIO)*DD1O ELSE XSHAREIO*QS1O

326, XlI * IF (I-XSHARE11)9QSIl GE (I-MSHAREII)ODDII THEN QSII-(1-MSHAREII)$DDII ELSE XSHAREII$QSII

327, X12 - IF (I-XSHARE12)*QS12 GE (I-MSHARE12)0DDI2 THEN QS12-(1-MSHAREI2)*0D12 ELSE XSHARE12*QS12 328: X13 a IF (I-XSHARE13)*QS13 GE (1-MSHARE13)00013 THEN QS13-(I-MSHARE13)*DD13 ELSE XSHARE13*0S13 329: X04 a XSHARE04QS04 330: X71 a XSHARE71$QS71

331: X14 - XSHARE14*QS14

332: X15 = XSHARE15*(XOI+X02+X03+X05+XO64X714X7Z2XO8+XO9+XIO+X11+X12+X13)

333: XIS = XSHARE1SSCXOI+XO2+Xa3+X05+Xo6+X71+X72+Xaa+XO9+XIO+XI1+X12+X13) 334: X17 a XSHARE17*QS17 335. X1I a XSHAREIU*QS19 336: X19 a XSHARE9*QS19 3373 X20 a XSHARE20*QS20 338: X XOI+X02+X03+X04+XO5+XOB+X71+X72+XOB+XOQ+X1O+XI +X12+X13+XI4+XI5+X1O+XI7+XiS+X9g+X20

F O R E I G N T R A D E A N D P A YM E N T S I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S : 339t DOLXOI a XOI*WPINDXOIOCFXO1

340: DOLX02 * X02*WPINDX02*CPXD2

341: DOLX03 = X03'WPINDX030CFX03

342: DOLX04 * X04WPINDX*CFX04 343: DOLX05 a XO5SWPINDXOS*CFX05

344: DOLX06 * XOB'WPINDXOS*CFX06

345: OOLX71 = X71*WPINDXO6'CFX71

3460 OOLX72 = X72*WPINOX05SCFX72

341: DOLXOB - XOS*WPINOXOSOCFXOB 348: DOLXO9 a X09*WPINOX'CFX09

349: DOLXIO * X1O*WPINDX*CFX1O 350: DOLXII = X11'WPINDXOCFXII

351: DOLX12 * X12*WPINDXSCFX12

352: DOLX13 = X13*WPINDXGCFX13

353: DOLX14 * X14'WPINDX*CFX14

354: DOLX15 * X15WPINDXOCFX15 la

355- DOLX16 = X16$WPJNDX4CfXl6 .. &

356: DOLXI7 a X17OWPINDXOCFX17 355: DOLXI1 = X13*WPINDX'CFXIS MM 3558 DOLXI7 - X197WPINDX*CFX17 H

359: DOLX20 a X20*WPINDXOCFX20 360: DOLX DOLXOI+DOLX02+DOLX03+DOLX044DOLX05DOLXOB.DOLX71.DOLX72+DOLXOU+DOLXO9+DOLXIO+DOLX1I14WLXI2400LX134DOLX14400LXIS 4DOLXI6+DOLXi7+DOLXIU+DOLX19+DOLX20 36i: OLMO% a MOifWPINDXOl*C;Oi 362s DOLM02 a M02WPINDXO2*CFMOZ 363, DOLM03 * M03OWPZNOX030CFMO3

384: OOLM04 a M04*WPINOX*CFPM4

365: DOLU05 * M054WPINDXD54CFM05 366: DOLM06 * M06oWPINDX066CFM06 367: DOLM71 * M71*WPINDXO6*CFU71

368, DOLM72 * M72*WPINDXO6*CFM72 369, DOLMOS = M08*WPINDXO8*CFMO8

370: DOLM09 * M09'WPINDX*CFM09

371, DOLUIO a MIO*WPINDX*CFM1O 372, DOLUII = MllWPINDX*CFMll 373: DOLM12 = M12OWPINDXOCFMI2

374: OOLM13 * M13OWPINDXOCFM13 1

375, DOLM14 * M146WPINDXCFCM14 Co 376, DOLM15 = M15*WPINDX*CFPM5 377: DOLM18 - MIGWPINDXOCFMI6

3785 DOLM17 * M17SWPINDX6CFM17 379: DOLMIS * MU18WPINDX*CFM1I

380: DOLM19 a M194WPINDX*CFMl9 381: DOLM20 = MZOWPINDX*CFM20

382: DOLM = DOLMOI+DOLM02+DOLM03+DOLM04+DOLM05+DOLM06+DOLM71+DOLM72+DOLMOB+DOLM09+DOLMIO+OLMU II+DOLU12+DOLI13+DOLMU4+DOLM15 *DOLMIG+DOLM17DOLMUa+DOLMI9+DOLM20

OAMP..... IS INSERTED TO AVOID OSCILLATIONS: 393: DOLSF = (SUALLFPOOLX(-I)-DOLOEBT(-1))OOAMP2

384: DOLDEBT = DOLDE6T(-I)#DOLM-DOLX+*OLDS-DOLNTR 385: DOLDS - INTERESTODOLDEBT(-I) 386: DOLNTR = DOLNTROS*WDINDX

. PDAR IS LAGOED TO REDUCE SIMULTANEITY: O P 387: EXCHR * EXCH8S*PBAR(-I)/WPINDX olx SUPPLEMENTARY ENERGY-RELATED EQUATIONS (FIRST THIRTY OETERMINE AOSI AND A711): 366: AFUELOI a CAL05'AO501+CALOGAO60i+CAL7i*A71Oi

389: AFUELO2 a CAL05*A0502*CAL06'A0602*CAL71IA7102 390, AFUELO3 u CAL05*A0503+CALO5*A0603+CAL71*A7103 391: AFUELO4 c (CALO5*AO504tCALO6*A0604+CAL71*A7104)/(1-HYDSHR)

392, AFUEL05 a CAL05*A0505+CAL06*A0805+CAL7i*A7105 393, AFUELOO a CAL05*ABOG6+CAL06*AOG08+CAL71*A7iO6

394t AFUEL07 * CAL71SA7107

395, AFUELO8 * CALO5*AO508+CALO6*AO6OBA+CAL71*A7108A

396, AFUELOU = CALO5*AO509+CALO6*AO609+CAL71*A7109 397, AFUELIO = CAL050AO56O+CAL06*A0610+CAL7I*A7110

398, AFUELlI * CAL05A0511+CALa6*A0611+CAL71'A7111 399: AFUEL12 = CAL05*A0512+CALO66A0612+CAL71*A7112

400t AFUEL13 = CAL05*A0513+CAL06SAO613+CAL71*A7113 401: AFUEL14 = CALOS*A0514+CAL06SA0614+CAL71*A7114

402 AfUEL15 * CAL05*A0515+CAL06*A0615+CAL71*A7115 403, AFUEL10 = CAL05*A0516+CALOGSAO616+CAL71*A7116

404t AFUEL17 a CAL05*A0517+CALO6*AO617+CAL71*A7117

405: AFUELIS * CALGS*A0518+CALQ6'AOBiB+CAL71*A7115

406: AFUEL19 = CALO5*AO519+CAL06*AO619+CAL7I*A7119

407, AFUEL20 = CAL05*A0520+CALO6*A0620+CAL7i*A7120 408t A7109 = A0509*A7103/A0503

409, A7110 * A0510*A7103/A0503

410: A7111 a A05110A703/A0503 411t A7112 = A0512*A7103/A0503

412t A7113 a A0513*A7103/A0503 413: A7116 a A05164A7103/A0503

414: A7117 a A0517*A7103/AO503 415: A7118 = A0518 0A.7103/A0503

416s A7ll S A0519*A71031AO503

417t A7120 = A0520OA7103/A0503

...... NEXT TWENTY EQUATIONS DISTINGUISH TRUCKS fROM OTHER DISTILLATE USEt, MO 4183 A7201 a A7201A+A72018 :

419: A7202 a A7202AtA72028 N

420s' A7203 5 A7203A+A7203B8

421: A7204 = A7204A+A7204B

422, A7205 5 A7205A+A72055 423: A7206 ' A.206A'A7208:

424. A7207 = A7207A.A7207B

425* A7208 = A7208A+A720E8 426: A7209 = A7209A+A7209B 427: A7210 = A7210A+A7210B

428: A7211 s A7211A+A72118

429: A7212 * A7212A+A72128

430, A7213 a A7213A+A7213B 431: A7214 = A7214A+A7214B

432: A7215 * A7215A+A7215B

433: A7216 = A7216A+A7216B 4341 A7217 = A7217A+A7217B

435: A7218 a A7218A+A7218B

436: A7219 - A7219A+A72190

437: A7220 = A7220A+A72205

...... NEXTTWO EQUATIONS DISTINGUISH FUEL FROM FEEDSTOCK IN CHEMICALS: 438: A0608 A0608A+A0608B 439: A7108 = A7108A+A710Bb

...... NEXTTWO EQUATIONS DETERMINE ELECTRICITY CAPITAL-OUTPUT RATIO: 440: HYDSHR = HVOPOW/QS04 441: AK04 = AK4A*HYDSHR+AK4B*(I-HYDSHR)

S U P P L E M E N T A R V C R O P P R OD U C T I O N E Q U A T I O N S , 442: T = (I+TGROW)eT(-l)

443: N = (t+NGROW)*N(-l)

...... EQUATION SUBTRACTS PREDETERMINED INTERMEDIATE INPUTS, 444: NADJ = N-(AOIO1+A0201+A0401+AO501+AO6Ol+A7101+A7201)*QSOI

.... NEXT FOURTEEN EQUATIONS SPLIT OTHER INTERMEDIATE INPUTS IN FIXED PROPORTIONS: 4451 A0301 = AGINT03*NADJ/QSDI

446: A080I * AGINTOSONADJ/QSOI

447: A0901 3 AGINT09*NADJ/QSO1 ,

448: AIOOI = AGINT1O*NADJ/QS0l1 1 449: AllOl = AGINTII*NADJ/QSD1

450: A1201 a AGINT12$NADJ/QSOI i 451: A1301 = AGINT13*NADJ/QSOI

452: A1401 * AGINT14*NADJ/QSOI 453: A1501 . AGINTI5*NAD.J/QSOI

4541 AIGOI - AGINT16*NADJ/QSOI

455: A1701 = AGINT17*NADJ/QSO1 456: AlSOl - AGINT18$NADJ/QSOI 457: A1901 - AGINT194NADJ/QSO0

4583 A2001 - AGINT20*NADJ/QSOI ALLOCATION OF INVESTMENT AMONG SECTORS OF DESTINATION, 459: ICLAIMOI = OELTAO1*FKOl(-t)+KOI(-l)O(KOl(-l)/KO(-2)-1)+((QSO.1/(TN*SOETA2))**(C/SETAI)-KOI(-?)) 460: ICLAIM04 = DELTA040FK04(-l)tQS04*tQS04/QS04(-I)-l)*AKOAK04/AK04(-l)+(QS04-AO4)*AK04*(AK04/AK04t-I)-l)+DAMP*((QS04 A04)*AK04-K04(-l)) 481: ICLAIM05 * DELTA05*FK05(-l)+QS054(QS05/Q5(-1)-l)*AK05*AK05/AK05(-l)+(0505-AO5)*AK05*(AK05/AK05(-1)-l)+DAMP$t(QS05- A05)*AKO5-K0(-1 )) 462: ICLAIM06 = DELTA06*FK06(-l)+QS06*(QS06/QS06(-1)-l)*AK06*AK06/AK06(-l)+(QS06-AO6)$AK06*(AK06/AK06(-1)-l)+DAMP(eQSO6- AO6)*AK06-K06(-1))

463: ICLAIM07 * DELTA07=FK07(-l)+QS07$(QS07/QS07(-1)-l)AK07*AK07/AK07(-l)+(QS07-AO7)AK07*(AK07/AK07(-1)-l)+DAMP$((QS07- A07)*AK07-K07(-1))

464: ICLAIM14 = DELTA14*FK14(-l)+QS14*(QS14/QS14(-1)71)*AK14*AK14/AK14(-1)+(QS14-Al4)*AK14*(AK14/AK14(-1)-l)+DAMP*((QS14- A14)*AK14-K14(-1))

465: ICLAIM15 = DELTA15*FKI5(-1)+QS15*(QS15/QS15(-1)-1)OAK15SAK15/AK15(-l)+(QS1S-AlS)'AKIS*(AK15SAK15(-l)-1)+DAMPS((QS15- At5)*AKl5-KIS(-1)) Co 466: ICLAIMIO = DELTA1B*FK16(-1)+QS1B*(QS1S/QS16(-l)-1)*AK)6*AK16/AK16(-1)+(QS16-A16)*AK164(AK16/AKi6(-1)-l)+DAMP*((QS16- A16)SAKi6-K16(-1)) 1

467: ICLAIM17 = DELTA17$FK17(-l)+QS17C(QS17/QS17(-l)-1)*AK17*AK17/AK17(-1)+(QS17-A17)*AK17*(AK17/AK17(-1)-l)+DAMP*((QS17- A17)*AK17-K17(-1))

468: ICLAIMI1 = DELTA18*FK18(-l)+QS1B*(QS18/QSle(-1)-1)*AK186AK18IAKl8(-l)+(Qs1a-A18)eAK18*(AK1a/AK18(-1)-l)+DAMPe((QS1Q- Al8)*AKI8-K18(-t))

469: ICLAIMI9 = DELTA19*FK19(-l1+QS19(QS19/QS19(-1)-l)*AK19*AK19/AK19(-1)+(Qs19-Alg)OAK19'(AK19/AK1I(-1)-1)+DAMP*((QS19- A19)*AK19-KI9(-1)) 470: ICLAIM20 = DELTA20*FK20(-l)+QS20*(QS20/QS20(-*)-l)$AK20*AK20/AK20(-l)+(QS20-A20)*AK20(AK20/AK20(-l)-l)+DAMP(QS20- A20)*AK20-K20(-1))

471: ICLAIM02 = DELTA02$FK02(-1)+(1-DTGT02)$DD02*(DD02/D02(-1)-l)*AK02*AK02/AK02(-1)+((1-OTGT02)tDD02-A02)$AK02$(AK02/AK02 (-1)-I)+DAMPI*((M02-X02-DTGT02*DD02)'AK02)

472: ICLAIM03 = DELTA03*FK03(-1)+(1-DTGT03)$DD03*(DD03/DD03(-1)-l)*AK034AK03/AK03(-1)+((1-DTGT03)DD3-A03)AK03*(AK03/AK03 (-I)-l)+DAMP1*((M03-X03-DTGTO3*D0D03)*AK03)

473: ICLAIMOS = DELTA0BSFKO8(-1)+(1-DTGT08)DD08((DDODD08(-1)-l)OAKD8hAK08/AK08(-1)+((1-DTGT08)*DD08-A08)AK08*(AKOAK08 l l (-l)-1)+DAMPl*((MOS-XOa-DTGT0*DD08)*AKOS)

474: ICLAIMIO a DELTAIO*FKIO(-1)+(1-DTGTIO)ODDlO$(DDIO/0010(-1)-l)*AKIO*AKIO/AKIO(-1)+((1-DTGTlO)ODDIO-AlO)*AKlO*(AKIO/AKIO %0 (-1)-1)+DAMPI*((MIO-X1O-OTGT1O*0DDO)SAK1O) X 475: ICLAIMII = DELTAII*FKII(-I)+(l-DTGTII)DD011*(DDll/DDII(-I)-1)*AKll*AKII/AKII(-l)+((l-DTGTll)9DD11-All)*AK11*(AKII/AKI (-I)-l)+DAMPI*((MII-X11-DTGTl*0DDl1)*AKII)

476: INEEDO9 a DELTA09*FK09(-*)+((1-MSHARE09)$DDO9*eDDO9/DDO9(-1)-l)+XTGTO9¢XMFD$(XMFD/XMFD(-I)-l))*AKOAK09/AK09(-1)+((1- MSHARE09)*DD09+XTGT09*XMFD-AO9)*AK09*(AK09/AK09(-1)-l)+DAMP3*((XTGT09*XMFD-xO9+MO9-MSHARE09*DD09)*AK09) 477: INEED12 OOELTAI2*FK12(-1)+((I-MSHARE12)*DD012(0012/DD12(-I)-1)+XTOT12SXMFD*(XMFO/XMFO(-l)-I))*AK12*AKI2/AKI2(-I)+t((1- MSHARE12)*0012+XTGT12*XMFO-A12)*AKI2*(AK12/AK12- *)-1)+DAMP3*((XtTT12*XMFD-X12+M12-MSHAREi20DD12)'AK12)

479t INEED13 = DELTA13*FK13(-I)+-((-MSHARE13)SDDI3S(DD13/0D13(-1)-1)+XTGT13*XMFD*(XMFD/XMFD(-1)-I))*AK13SAKI3/AK13(-I)+((¶- MSHARE13)*DD134XTGT13*XMFD-A13)*AK13OCAK13/AK13(-1)-l)+oAMP3*((XTGT13*XuFD-X,3+M13-MSHARE,3oDDl3).AK13)

4791 XMFO = XO9+XII+X12+X13 ...... 5 EQUATIONS.NEXT RECONCILE SECTORAL CLAIMS WITH IN: 480: IRESID - IN-(ICLAIMOI+ICLAIMO2+ICLAIMO3+ICLAIM04+ICLAIMO5+ICLAIMOS+ICLAIM07+ICLAIMO8tICLAIM1O+ICLAIMII+ICLAIM14+ ICLAIM15+ICLAIMI6+ICLAIM17+ICLAIMI8+ICLAIM19+ICLAIM20)

491: - INEED = INEED09+INEED12+INEED13 482: ICLAIMOO = INEED09/INEED*IRESIO

483: ICLAIM12 = INEEO12/INEEDOIRESID 484: ICLAIM13 = INEED13/INEED*IRESID NEXT...... 20 EQUArlONS DAMP INVESTMENT ALLOCATION, 485: ISHROI * KAPPA'(KOI(-1)/K(-I))+(C-KAPPA)'(ICLAIMOI/IN)

486: ISHRO2 a KAPPA*(K02(-1)/K(-1))+(P-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM02/IN)

487: ISHRO3 = KAPPA'(K03(-i)/K(-1))+(I-KAPPA)'(ICLAIM03/IN)

488: ISHRO4 = KAPPAC(KO4C-1)/K(-I))+(I-KAPPA)'(ICLAIM04/IN)

489: ISHROS = KAPPAtCKOS-I)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)O(ICLAIM05/IN) I

490: ISHRO6 = KAPPA'(K06(-I)/K(-I))+(I-KAPPA)*(ICLAIMOB/IN) c 491e ISHRO7 = KAPPA*(K07(-I)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)$(ICLAIM07/1N) 492* ISHRO8 = KAPPA*(K08(-)/K(-I))+(I-KAPPA)*(ICLAIMO8/IN)

493t ISHRO9 = KAPPAS(KO9(-1)/K(-I))+(I-KAPPA)S(ICLAIM09/IN) 494: ISHRIO a KAPPA*(K1O(-[)/K(-I))+(I-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM10/IN) 495: ISHRii a KAPPA'(K11(-1)iKC-l))+CI-KAPPA)9(ICLAIMllilN)

498.: ISHR12 = KAPPA*(K12(-1)/K(-I))+(I-KAPPA)S(ICLAIM12/tN)

497: ISHR13 = KAPPA*(KI3(-1)/K(-I))+(l-KAPPA)9(ICLAIM13/IN) 498: ISHR14 a KAPPA*(K14(-1)/K-Il))+( -KAPPA)*(ICLAIM1411N) 499: ISHR1S = KAPPA*(K15(-1)/K(-I))+(I-KAPPA)'(ICLAIM15/IN) 500: ISHR16 = KAPPAC(KI6(-I)/K(-I))+CI-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM16/IN)

501: ISHR17 * KAPPA*(KI7(-1)/K(-I))+(I-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM17/IN)

502: ISHR15 * KAPPA*(K1I(-I)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIMIB/IN)

503: ISHR19 = KAPPA*(KI9(-1)/K(-I))+(l-KAPPA)*(ICLAIMJ9/IN) o a

504: ISHR20 a KAPPAO(K20(-W)/K(-I))+(I-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM20/IN) M*W

505: 101 a ISHROI'IN N

506: 102 = ISHRO2*IN

J., 507: 103 = ISHR03'IN 505: 104 = ISHR04*IN

5091 105 = ISHROV*IN 51O: 106 a ISHROS'IN 511: 107 a ISHRO7*IN

512: 108 - ISHRO8lN

613t 109 = ISHR09*IN

514: 110 a ISHRIO*IN 515: III a ISHRIl*IN 516. 112 = ISHR12'IN 517, 113 = ISHR13$IN 518: I14 = ISHRI4*IN

5192 115 a ISHR1S*IN

520: 316 a ISHR16*IN 521: 117 = ISHR17'IN 522: 118 = ISHR18'IN

523: 119 * ISHR19*IN C

524, 320 = ISHR20IN DIVISION OF SECTORAL INVESTMENT BETWEEN FIXED AND CIRCULATING CAPITAL. 525: SK01 = RH001*(IO1-DELTA01*FKOI(-I))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK

526: SK02 * RH0020(102-DELTA020FK02(-i)f(SK-SKOISCR)/SK

5278 SK03 * RH003(103-OELTA03*FK03(-1))S(SK-SKDISCR)/SK

528: SK04 * RH004*(104-DELTA04*FK04(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK

529: SK05 = RH005'(l05-DELTA05*FK05(-1))'(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 530 SKG06 a RHOOSC(106-DELTA06'FKO6(-l))*(SK-SKOISCR)/SK 531: SK07 = RH007$(107-DELTA07*FK07C-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK

532: SK'508* RHOOSO(108-DELTAOBfKOS(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK

533: SK09 * RHOO$*(I09-DELTA09eFK09(-I))e(SK-SKOISCR)/SK 534: SK1O = RHIIO1*110-DELTA10FKIO(-lfl)*SK-SKDISCR)/SK OsP

535. SKII a RHOII*(IC-DELTAIISFKI1(-I))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK N E

0 536: SK(12 * RHOI2*CI 12-DELTAI2*PK12C-I ))a(SK-SKDISCR)/SK X 5372 SK13 * RHO13(SI13-OELTA13*FK13(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK I W

538: SK14 = RHOl4*lIl4-DELTAi4*FK14(-1))*CSK-SKDISCR)/SK

539. 5K15 = RH015*(115-DELTA15'FK1S(-1))'(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 540: SK16 * RH0160(116-DELTA16PFK1S(-1))O(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 541: SK17 * RH017*(I17-DELTA17*FK17(-I))*(SK-5S"ISCR)/SK 542: SKIS - RHO1S(IC18-DELTA1I*FK18(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK

5431 SK19 = RHO19*(I19-DELTA19*FK19(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK

544: SK20 = RH020*(120-DELTA20*FK20(-1))S(SK-SKOISCR)/SK .SKDISCR RECONCILES SECTORAL ALLOCATION WITH Fl AND SK DETERMINED ABOVE: 545: SKDISCR = RHOOl(I01-DELTAOIFKOI(-l))+RH002*(102-DELTA020FK02t-l))+RH003$(I03-DELTA03*FK03(-l))+RH0044(104-DELTA04* FK04t-l))+RH006w(105-DELTA05*FK05t-l))+RliO06$tIG6-OELTA084FK08t-l))+RH007*t107-DELTA07*FK07t-l))+RH008et108-DELTA08t FKOB(-l))+RH009*(109-DELTA0OSFK09(-l))+RHOlO*(I10-DELTAlOSFKlD(-l))+RHOll@(lll-DELTAlleFKll(-l))+RH012*(112-DELTA120 FK12(-I))+RH013*(1l3-DELTA13SFK13(-l))+RH014$(I14-DELTA140FK14(-l))+RH0150(ll5-DELTA15$FK15(-l))+RH016etIl6-DELTA160 * . ~~~~~FKIS(-l))+RH017(lil7-DELTA174FK17(-l))+RH018e(Il8-DELTA18@FK18(-l))+RH019*(119-OELTA194FK19(-l))+RH020$(120-DELTA200 FK20(-1))-SK ...... IS.SKDISCR USED TO CORRECT THE SK/FP RATIO IN THE NEXT PERIODs 540s FIOI - IOl-SKOl

547: F102 = 102-SK02

5483 F103 = 103-SK03

549, PI04 = 104-SK04

550: F105 = 105-SK05

551: F106 = 1oe-SKO0

552: FI07 = 107-SK07

553: FI08 = 108-SK08

554: FI09 = 109-SKO9

555: FIIO a IO-SKIO

556: FIll = III-SKlI 557. FI12 = 112-SK12 558: F113 - 113-SK13 559: FI14 = I14-SK14 5603 F115 = £15-SKIG

561: F116 = 116-SK16

562: F117 = 117-SK17 563: FI18 = 118-SK18 t

564: Fll9 * 119-SK19 e

565: F120 = 120-SK20 CAPITAL STOCK UPDATING: # 566: PK (*-SKSHR)'(801*POI+B02*PO2+Bo3*PO3+B04*PO4+805*PO5+B06*PO6+B7l'P71+872*P72+0oPOs+Bo90PO9 +Bl i*Pll+B 226 W P12+813$P 13+14 P14+815*P15+816'P16+817*P17+Bl8*P18+B19'P 198+20P20)+SKSHR'PIAR(-1)

567: FKOI FIOI/PK+(l-DELTAOl)*FKOI-1) 0 5681 FK02 = F102/PK+(1-DELTA02) FK02(-1)

569: FK03 a F103/PK+(1-DELTAO3)*FK03(-1)

570: FK04 a F104/PK+Cl-DELTA04)OFK04(-1)

571: FK05 = F105/PK+(l-DELTA05)*FK05C-1)

572: FKP06 a FP0/PK+(l-DELTAO6)OFKOG(-1)

573t FK07 = F107/PK+(1-DELTA07)*FK07(-1)

574: FK08 = F108/PK+t(-DELTAO8)*FK08(-1)

575: FK09 = F109/PK*(.-DELTA09)*FK'09C-1) 576t FK10 = FnIO/PK*(I-OELTAI0)*FK1(-I1)

577: FKII = FI1I/PK+(1-DELTAII)OFKII(-I) 579: FK12 = F112/PK+(I-DELTA12)'FK12(-1) 579: FK13 - FI13/PK+(1-DELTA13)*FK13(-1)

580t FK14 n F114/PK+(l-DELTA14)*FK14(-l) 561: FK15 = F115/PK+(1-DELTA15)'FK15(-1) 582: FK16 a F116/PK+(1-DELTA16)*FK16(-l)

583: FK17 = F117/PK+(O-DELTA17)*FK17(-1)

584: FK18 - FI1B/PK+(I-DELTA1S)$FK18(-1) I

585. FK19 a Fll9/PK+(l-DELTA19)*FK19t-1) C 586: FK20 = F120/PK+(I-DELTA20)*FK20(-1)

587. FK = FKOl+FK02+FK03+FK04+FK05+FK06+FK07+FK408P0+FK09+FKO+FK+FK12+FK13+FK14+FK15+FK16+FK17+FKP1+FK19+FK20 588: WKOI = WKOIC-I)+SKOI/PK: 589: WK02 = WK02(-l)+SK02/PK

590: WK03 = WK03(-l)tSK031PK.

S91t WK04 = WK04(-1)+SK04/PK

592: WK05 = WK05(-l)+SK05/PK

593: WK06 = WK06(-))+SK06/PK 594: WK07 = WK07(-1)+SK07/PK 595: WK08 a WK0S(-l)+SK0B/PK 596: WK09 = WK09(-l)+SK09/PK1(

597k WKIO = WK10(-I)+SKIO/PK1(

598: WKII = WKII(-1)+SKI1/PK a

599: WK12 = WK12(-1)+SK12/PK :

Boo: WK13 = WK13(-1)+SK13/PK o601: WK14 a WKi4(-l)+SK14/PK

602: WKI5 * WKIS(-l)+SKIS/PK

603: WK16 = WK16(-1)*SKMI/PK

604. WKI7 = WK17(-1)+SK17/PK 605: WKI8 = WK18(-1)+SKI1/PK 606: WKIS = WK19(-1)+5K19/PK

607, WK20 a WK20t-l)+SK20/PK

60: WK = WKOi+WK02+WK03+WK04+WK05+WK06+WK07+WK08+WKO9O+KlO+WKII+WK12+WK13+WK14+WK15+WKI6+WK17tWKI1+WK19+WK20

6098 KOI = FKOI+WKOl

6101 K02 = FKO2+WK02 611: K03 - FK03+WK03

61:1 K04 = FK04+WK04 6131 K05 = FKO5+WK05 614: KMO a FKOE+WK06

615: K07 x FKO7+WKO7

616: KOB = FKO8+WK08

617: KOB = FK09+WK09 0 a18: K10 a FKIO+WKIO 6191 KMl = FK11+WKI1

620: K12 = FK12+WK12

621: K13 = FK13+WK13

622: K14 u FK14+WK14

623: KI5 = FK16+WK15 6241 K16 = FK16+WK16 625: K17 a FK17+WK17 626: KIS = FKI1+WK1S

627: KM9 = FKi9+WK19

628: K20 = FK20+WK2O

629: K = KOI+K02+KO3+KO4+KO5sMKO6+K7+K08+K09+KIOMKli+K12+K13+K14+KM5+KIM+K17+KM8+KM9+K20 mm UPDATING PRICES (FIRST 22 EQUATIONS DETERMINE RELATIVE PRICES AND PROFIT RATE PAIZ): 630: ZOI a AOIOINZO1+A02014Z02+A0301OZ03+A0401SZ04+A0501*Z05+A0601OZ06+A7l01*Z71+A7201OZ72+Aoaoi*ZOB+AO901-Z09+AlOOIZ10+ AlJO1'ZI +A0201$Z12+A1301$Z13+A1401*Z14+A1501$Z15+A1601$Z16+A17014Z17+At801*ZlB+AI901*ZI9tA2001*Z20+LO1/SOl*WO3° ALPHAOI+KOI(-I)/QSOlPAIZ*ZETAOI tW 6311 Z02 = A0102= ZOl+A02026Z02+A0302*Z03+A0402$Z04+A0502*Z05+A06024Z06+A7102OZ71+A7202OZ72+A08020Z08+AG9020Z09+A10020Z10+ A1102Z1 1+A1202*Z12+A1302*Z13.A1402*Z14+A1502.Z15+A1602*ZI6+A 1702*Z17+A1802'ZlS+A1902*Z19+A2002*Z20+AL02'W0a*ALPHA02+ K02(-l)/QS02OPAIZZZETA02 632: Z03 * A0103OZOI+A0203*Z02tAO303*Z03+A0403*Z04+A0503*Z05+AO603ZO6+A7l03'Z7l+A7Z03TZ72+AO803OZOS+AO903Z09+AlOD3fZ1l+ A1103tZ11+A12030212tA1303*Z13+A1403*Z14+A1603*Z15+A16030Zt0+A1703*Zt7+A18O03Z1B+Al903JZlg+A2003OZ20+AL03OW03+K03t-l)/ QS03SPAIZ 633: Z04 = A0104'ZOI+A0204*Z02+A0304'Z03+A0404'Z04+A0504'Z05+AOE040Z06tA7104iZ71+A72040Z72+A080408sA0904'Z09+A10044Z10+ A1104SZIC+A5204AZ12+A304SZ13+A14044Z14+AIS04*il5+A1604*Z16+A1704*Z17+Al804*Z1B+A1904*Zl9+A2004OZ20+AL04OW030ALPHA04+ KO4(-l)/QS04*PAlZ*ZETAO4

634: ZOS a A010OsZOI+AO205*ZO2+AO305*ZO3+AO40OSZ04+AO505OZ05+AO605*ZO6tA7105*Z71+A72O5*Z72+AO805$ZOB+AO905SZO9+AI0050ZIG+ A1105'Z11+A1205SZ12+A13054Z13+A1405*Z14+A1505*Z5S+A1605iZ16+A17050Z17+AIBOS*Z18+Al905'Z19§A200$'Z20+AL05'W03'ALPHA05+ K06(-l)/QSOS*PAIZ*ZETA05

835 ^ Z06 a A0106'ZOl+A0206'Z02+A0306'Z03+A0406'Z04+A0506'Z05+A06060Z06+A7106'Z71+A7206'Z72+A0806'Z08+A0g06'Z09+A10064Z10+ Al107'Z l+Al2067Z12+AI3054Z13+A1406'Z14+A1506'Z15+A1607Z16+Al706'Z17+A1807'Z18+A1906'Z19+A2006*Z20+ALO7*W03'ALPHA06t K06t-1)/QS06*PAIZOZETA06

636t Z07 ' A0107OZOl+A0207'Z02+A0307'Z03+A0407OZ04+A0507*ZO5+A0607'ZO6+A7107'Z71+A7207'Z72+A0807'Z08+AO907'Z09+A10070Z10+ A1107'Zll+A1207'Z12+A1307*Z13+A1407'tl4+Al507*Z15+A1607'ZIG+A1707'Z17+A 18074Zle+A 1907'Zl9+A2007'Z20+AL07'W03'ALPHA07+ K07(-l )IQS07PAIZ#ZErAO7

637: Z71 - Z07

638: Z72 a Z07 639: Z08 = AOlOBOZOltAO2080ZO2+AO308OZ03+AO408*ZO4+AO508*ZOS+AO608$ZO6+A710S*Z71+A7208s272+AO80BeZO8+AO908tZO9+Al068*ZlO+ A1108'Zll+A1208'Z12+A1308'Z13+A140H'Z14+A1508'Z15+A16080Z16+A1708'Z17+A1808'Z1ISA1908'Zl9+A2008'Z20+AL08'W03'ALPHAOB+ K08(-l)/QS08*PAIZ*ZETAOB

640; ZOO = A00OZOl+A0209'Z02+A0309'Z03+A0409'Z04+A0509'Z05+A0609'Z06+A7109'Z71+A7209'Z72+Aoao9'Z08+A0909'Z09+A10090Z10+ Al 109*Zi+A209'Zl2+A1309*Zl3+Al409*Zl4+A1509*Z15+A16Z09*Zl6+A709*217+A8O09'Zl8+Al9091Zl9+A2009*Z20+ALOO*W03*ALPHAOO+ KO9(-1)/QS09*PAIZOZETA09

6411 ZIO = AOllOOZOl+A0210*Z02tA0310'Z03+A0410OZ04+A0510'Z05+A0610'Z06+A7110'Z71+A7210'Z72+A0810'Z08+A0910'ZOS+AlOOZ10+ AlIlO*Z1i+AI2109Z12+Al310*Z13tAl410*ZI4tAI5IOSZ15+Al6I0OZ18+A1710.Z17+Al810.Zl8+Al9lO*Zl9+A2010OZ20+ALIO*WO3*ALPHAlO+ KIO(-l)tQSlO'PAIZ*ZETAIO

642: Zll = AOIl'ZOl+A0211'Z02+A0311'Z03+A04110Z04+A0511OZ05+A0611'Z06+A7111'Z71+A721;'Z72+A0811'Z08tAO911'ZO9+AlOZ10+ Alill'Zll+A1211'Z12+A1311'Z13+A1411'Z14+A1511'Z15+A1611'*ZIG+A1711'Z17tA1811'Z18+A1g1lwZ1g+A2011'Z20+ALll'WO3'ALPHAIl+ Kll(-l)/QSll0PAIZ*ZETAll 643: Z12 = A01124ZOI+AO212$ZO2+AO312*ZO3+AO412OZ04+AO512$ZO54AO6124ZO6+A7112OZ71+A7212OZ72+AO812OZ08+AO912OZ09+AI012I6+ A1112'Zll+A1212'Z12+A13124Z13+A1412'Z14+A1512'Z15vA1612*Z16+A1712'Z17+A1812'Z18+A1912'Z19+A2012*Z20+AL12'W03'ALPHA12+ K12(-l)/QS12*PAIZ*ZETA12

644; Z13 = A0l13*ZOl+AO2134ZO2+AO313*ZO3+AO413$ZO4+AO513SZO5+AO613$ZO6tA7113*Z?l+A7213*Z72+AO8130ZO8+AO913*ZOO+Al013*ZlO A1113'Zll+A1213'Z12+A1313'Z13+A1413'Z14+A1513'Zl5+A16130Z16+A1713'Z17+A18130Z18+A1913'Zl9+A2013OZ20+AL13'W03'ALPHA13+ K13(-i)/Q513*PAIZ'ZETA13

645- Z14 n A01144ZOI+AO214OZ02+AO314*ZO3+AO414OZ04+AO514OZ05+AO6144ZO6+A7114OZ71+A7214OZ72+AO8140Z08+AO914*ZO9+AI0140IzO+ A1114'Zll+A1214'Z12+A1314'Z13+A1414'Z14+Al514'Z15+A6164'Z16+A1714'Z17+A1814*ZlS+A1914*Il9+A2014*Z20+AL14'W303ALPHA14+ K14(-l)/QS14'PAIZ*ZETA14

646: Z1S = A0115$ZOl+AO2154ZO2+AO315*ZO3+AO415OZ04+AO515*ZO5+AO615*ZO6+A7l1S*Z7)+A7215OZ72+AO815*ZO8+AO915OZ09+AlOlSOZlO+ AlI lS*ZlU+A1215 Z12+A315*Z13+A1415 Z14+A1515*Z)5+A1615'Zt6+A1715'Z17+A181'Z 8+Al9150Zl9+A20l5'Z20+AL1 W303ALPHA15+ K15(-1)/QSI5*PAIZ*ZETA15 . 647: Z16 = A0116'ZOleA0216'Z02+A0316'Z03+A0416*Z04+A0516'ZO5+A0616'Z06tA7118'Z71+A7216*Z72+A0816'Z08+A0916'ZO9+A10160Z10+ A1116'Zll+A12164Z12+A1316*Z13+A1416'Z14+A1516OZ15+A1616'Z16tA1716'Z17+AIBIS'Z18+Al916$Z19+A2016'Z20+AL16'W03'ALPHA16+ f K16(-l)/QS16*PAIZ*ZETA16 E

848: Z17 = AM117WZOl+AO217'Z02+A0317'Z03+A0417OZ04+A0517'Z05+A0517'Z06+A7117'Z71+A72l7*Z72+A0817'Z08+A09170Z09+A10170Z10* A1117OZ1l+A1217OZ12+A1317'Z13+A1417OZ14+A1517'Z15+A1617*Z16+Al717$Zl7+A1817*ZlStA1g17*Zlg+A2017SZ20+AL17SW034ALPHA17+ Kl7(-1)/QS17'PAIZ'ZETA17

CAPITAL...... COST TERMS IN NEXT 3 EQUATIONS MODIFIED TO COMPENSATE FOR ONE PERIOD LAG 649: Z16 * A011O8ZOl+A0218*Z02+A0318*Z03+A0418SZ04AO518*ZO5+AO6lI*ZOS+A7118*Z71+A7218*Z72+AOBISSZOS+AO91*Z09+AIOISSZlO+ 2*K18(-l)*DELTAI8-DEPR18)/QSi8

650: Z19 * Ao119*ZO1+AO219*ZO2tAO3I9*ZO3+AO419*ZO4+AO5l9ZO5+tAO619OZO6+A7119*Z71tA7219*Z7Z+AO819SZO5tAO9199Z09+A119i*Zio+ A1119*ZlltA1219OZ12+A1319$Z13+A1419$Z14+AI519*Z15+Al6190Z19+A1719*Z17+A1B19*Z18+Alg19*Z19+A2019*Z20+AL194W03$ALP.HA19+( 2*KI9(-l)*DELTA19-DEPR19)/QS19

6511 Z20W A0l2O*ZOl+AO22OZ02+AO320*ZO3+AG420*ZO4tAG52OZ05+AG620$ZO6+A712OZ71+A722O Z72+AO820*Zo8+AO9200ZO9tAl0200ZlO+ A1120OZIl+AlZOeZ12+A1320SZ13+A1420SZ14+A1520OZ15+A1620iZ20+A1720SZ17+A18202ZlR+A1920*Z19+A2020*Z20+AL204W034ALPHA20+( 2K20C(-l)*SMALLR-RENT)/QS2O

NEXT..... EQUATION NORMALIZES ALL PRICES BV REQUIRING PBARl: 652: Y - (COI+GOI+100)/ZOI+XOI-MOI+(CO2+Gl2+1002)/Zl2+Xl2-M02+(C03+Gl3+1003)/Z03+X03-M03+(C04+G04+1004)/Z04+X04-M04+(COS+ G05+1005)/Z05+X05-M05+(CB+G006+1006)/Z06+XO0-M06+(C71+G71+1071)/Z71+X71-M71+(C72+G72+r072)/Z72+X72-M72+(COB+008+I008)/ ZOS+XOB-MOB+CCO9+G09+1009)/Z09.XO9-M09+(CIO+G1O+IO1O)/ZlO+XIO-MIO+(CCI+Gll+Oll)/Zil+Xl 1-Mll+(CI2+012+1012)/Z12+X12- M12+(Cl3+G13+1013)/Z13+X13-M13+(C14+G14+1014)/Z14+X14-M14+(CIS+G15+1015)/Z15+X15-M15+(C16+G16+1016)/ZlB+Xle-MlG+(C17+ G17+1017)/Z17+X17-M17+(C18+G18+1018)/Z18+XIS-MIB+(Clg+Gl9+IOIS)/Zl9+X19-MI9+(C20+G20+1020)/Z20+X20-M20 DERIVATION OF MPS NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 653: VRAT17 S (NQ17-DELTA17*FK17(-i)*PK)/(QS17*P17*(1-AI717))

...... PART OF SECTOR i7 OUTPUT SUPPORTS MATERIAL PRODUCTION IN OTHER SECTORS, 654: NMPOI = NQOI-DELTAOI*FKOI(-I)*PK+AI701*QSOI*P17*VRAT17 655t NMP02 = N002-DELTA02SFK02(-1)SPK+Al702*QS02*P17*VRAT17

656: NMP03 a NQo3-DELTA03OFK03(-l)PK+A1703*QS03*P17*VRAT17

657: NMP04 = NQ04-DELTA04*FK04(-)*PK+AI704QS04*Pl7*VRAT17

658: NMPOS = NQ05-DELTA05*FK05(-C)*PK+A1705*S05SP17WVRAT17 859: NMPOa = N06-DELTA06*FK06(-I)*PK+A1706*QS06*P177VRATI7 660: NMP07 = NQ07-DELTA07*FK07(-l)SPK+AI707*QS07*P17*VRAT17 0 661: NMPO a NQO8-DELTAOB*FK08(-1)'PK+A1708*QS089P17*VRAT17

e62: NMP09 = NQO9-DELTA09*FKOg(-fl)PKtA17090QSO9*P17*VRAT17

663: NMPIO = NOIO-OELTAIO'FK10(-)*PK+A17100QSIO*P177VRATI7

664: NMPII = NQII-OELTAII*FKII(-I)@PK+A1711*QSll1P17*VRAT17

665: NMP12 = NQ12-DELTA12SFK12(-l)'PK4A171 20512*P17'VRAT17

665: NMP13 = NQ13-DELTA13*FK13(-l)tiK+Al713*QS13*P174VRAT17 667: NMP14 = NQ14-DELTA144FK14(-1)'PK+A1714*QS14*P17*VRAT17

..,,,,,PASSENGER TRANSPORT SUBTRACTED (APPROXIMATED BY C15), 668 NMP15 = (N015-DELTA15*FK15(-I )PK+A1715Q 0 S01*PI7eVRAT17)*(1-C15/(QS15*P15)) 669: NMP16 = N016-DELTA16*FK16(-1)#PK+A17166QS16*P17SVRAT17 670: NMP = NMPOI+NMP02+NMPO3+NMP04+NMPO5+NMPO6+NMPO7+NMPO8+NMPO9+NMPIO+NMPII1NMP)2+NMPl3+NMPl4+NMP15+NMPl6-XLOSS-MLOSS 0 671: NMPREAL z NMP/PBAR 672: NMPSHROI a NMPOI/(NMP.XLOSS+MLOSS) a I 673: NMPSHRO2= NMPO2/(NMPtXLOSS+MLOSS)

674: NMPSHRO3a NMP03/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 675: NMPSHRO4 = NMP04/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 8763 NMPSHRO5 a NMP05/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 6773 NMPSHRO0 NMPO6/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS)

678: NMPSHRO7 = NMP07/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS)

679: NMPSHRO8 * NMPO/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 690& NMPSHROQ NMPOQ/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 6813 NMPSHR1O NMPIO/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS)

582: NMPSHR11 = NMP11/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS)

683: NMPSHR12 = NMP12/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS)

684: NMPSHR13 = NMP13/(NMPtXLOSS+MLOSS) 685: NMPSHR14 = NMP14/(NMPtXLOSS+MLOSS)

6853 NMPSHR15 = NMP15/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 687: NMPSHR16 ' NMP16/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) ...... INVESTMENT.MPS IS NET OF OEPRECIATION. INCLUDES DEFENCE INVESTMENT 68: IMAT = IN-DEPRtMILINV

689: DEPR = DELTA01*FKOI(-l)PK+DELTA02*FK02(-l)*PK+0ELTA03*FK03(-l)OPK+DELTA040FK04(-t)PKIOELTA050FK05(-1)*PK+DELTAO6e FK06(-7)*PK+DELTA07*FKo7(-l)*PK+DELTA084FK08(-l)*PK+OELTA09#FK09(-l)*PK+DELTAI0*FKIO(-1)*PK+DELTA11tFKIIt-l)SPK+ DELTA12*FK12(-l)OPK+DELTA13*FK13(-l)OPK+DELTA140FK14(-l)SPK+DELTA150FK15(-l)*PK+DELTA16*FK16(-l)*PK+OELTA170FK17(-1)t I PK+DEPRtI+DEPR19+DELTA206FK20-I )*PK

690: MILINV - MILSHRO9GO9.MILSHRI4G614

691: GMAT a GN-MILINV-(G17+618/C0518Q P1B)*A1718*0519P17)SVRAT17-GlfewaIs/(Qslapih)-wBlg

692: CMAT = CN-C15*(NQ15-DELTA15*FK15(-1)*PK+A1715*QS15*P17SVRAT17)/(QS15*P15)-(C17+C1B/(QS1ISPIB)*A1718SQS1D*P17.A17200 QS20*P17)*VRAT17-CIBWB*18/(QS8SP18)-(NQ20-DELTA20OFK20(-1).PK)

6933 NIA a IMAT+GMATICMAT 694: ACCRATE = IMAT/NIA 695: GMATSHR = GMAT/NIA

696: CMATSHR = CMAT/NIA SECTORAL NET OUTPUT SHARES (SNA BASIS): 697: NOSHRO1 = NQO/(V+XLOSS+MLOSS)

698: NQSHR02 = NQ02/(Y+XLOSS+MLOSS)

699: NQSHRO3 = NQ03/(Y.XLOSStMLOSS) Do.

700: NQSHRO4 = NQ04/(V+XLOSS+MLOSS) ' I U 701: NQSHR05 a NQ05/(Y+XLOSS+MLOSS)

702: NQSHRO6 = NQ06/(V+XLOSStMLOSS) 4w 703: NQSHRD7 = NQ07/(Y+XLOSStMLOSS)

704s NOSHROB * NQOSJ(V+XLOSS+MLOSS) - 90 - Appendix C Page 1 of 8 APPENDIX C: ADDITIONAL RESULTS OF QUADRUPLE

CHA30UTD

_S=8== = =_==S = ===---B= _ ==_=s======C==~======ACCRATE CHAT CKATSHR CN =__= = ~ =in==__= == = _-3=-=s=S3= *--StC _ 1981 0.291903 239.756 0.60801 255.787 1990 0.300551 427.968 0.605604. 461.201 2000 0.293162 779.016 0.616058 849.863

_ C~w=====30==m=-======3======__== =S======_= ====-===m

CPI CRO1 CR02 CR03 in mi=n= S= === Z ~=_ -- == nin===s=== --= U__ 1981 1. 66.6389 21.4776 0. 1990 1.00394 87.5409 42.7133 -1.775652E-11 2000 1.01762 109.627 82.1803 -1.955916E-11

CR04 CR05 CR06 CRO0 _-==--==- == - ===-====- = ==-Q==-======-======--===_=== 1981 0.34936 2.68912 0.019982 5.96352 1990 1.06099 3.54741 0.035861 12.1753 2000 3.06611 4.62651 0.062162 25.339 -- =====-== _=__==__--- __= =-======cc= : =_ ===== c=====---=z==

======--=~~ el=---======_ - = _ ===__; CRO9 CR10 CR11 CR12

!-- =-- -- =I--==== -== === ---- == _ _---=---= ==-= 1981 15.1123 0. 51.9444 30.4633 1990 32.3382 -1.078972E-11 104.939 55.3486 2000 70.3821 -1.188973E-11 205.703 100.592 ~~~ -=_-_=_==C=__-======___==--_=_-- =--=_=

CR13 CR14 CR15 CR16

1991 8.64959 0. 5.23413 25.917 1990 18.8344 -2.729443E-10 10.8563 47.2953 2000 41.7574 -2.997220E-10 21.7861 85.9916

…=__-- == __. _ = c====cc===…==__=c__---_

CR17 CR18 CR19 CR20

I - -- = -- - =1 -- =; --- =1=----==---- -'' = 1981 7.99132 1.7985 0. 11.2078 1990 16.3048 3.16552 0. 22.8356 2000 33.0204 5.33639 0. 45.0724

CR71 CR72 DDO1 DDO2 1 1 - -=- - =1 -=----= -=====1--= 1981 0. 0.329771 178.881 40.7733 1990 1.901399E-14 0.532884 243.756 81.6645 2000 2.043316E-14 0.839894 343.972 164.082 - 91 - - Ap2pendixC Page 2 of 8

====-c= I =-~___= I ~==-e--==eec 1 cs5 ==i _=1= 8c=-e=ecee

DD03 DD04 DDO5 DD06.

1981 47.1231 19.4179 16.3781 11.3199 1990 93.1618 36.8361 27.8877 16.3254 200Q 181.693 74.6871 44.5308 26.0436

= -----==== X= ===-'=_=-=-===__ ====5==== 5==== 5===- -$==-= ===_=====S==a=

DD08 DD09 DD10 DDlI ======__5=====5===--Z _- ===S===S ======S==___ _===~ - ~=5==m=-===_ 1981 62.1131 118.604 23.0157 68.7507 1990 139.942 263.926 47.1344 155.735 2000 321.602 577.283 90.9637 340.21 …======--===__=-=-=== e -==c= e======c ======_====e=e= c======e=

======_ -=-====-=- c=_=z======S=-==S==_======5==== DD12 DD13 DD14 DD15 ------===~======e ===___=====s===x===w ___=_=== =-=_= =__== = _3-==5=__ 1981 104.74 49.6917 75.0487 29.7977 1990 204.064 99.779 146.767 57.9376 2000 378.637 200.722 281.714 115.673

g==G===_= ===0==u=====z= C -- -S-__------_ _S= C-= G ==C-=C===-3C=S

…e--- ==== _e=-e===c==_ ==e =s======___ecc=c=-===t- DD16 DD17 DD18 DD19 e== c----- c== =__= -- =5== =-- e-=== =_ ~-=====_ =e==___=_===== 1981 50.0914 11.9592 39.4071 9.61199 1990 94.2995 23.8103 55.2189 11.4393 2000 180.282 47.3586 72.0253 14.2794 e ======_= c=-======-e__=__== __== =- ==

…c- ======----- _-=-c-= _===e= === __5======. .__====__m_======: DD20 DI7l DD72 DEPR …= = ==c-…=====e====_=== … =__==== ------_c- '- 1981 11.2078 1.58995 12.2399 23.5476 1990 22.8356 2.49252 23.0604 49.4812 2000 45.0724 3.76274 44.2965 105.729

~~~~=---= =.J== = __==C--- -- =----= = 5======__==== -O=_-__-____=

DEPR18 DEPRl9 EXCHR GNAT

2981 0.807178 0.805478 1.7 39.4675 1990 -0.684158 1.99564 1.08077 66.3192 2000 -0.405426 3.67082 0.602548 114.792

GMATSER GN GROl GRO2

1981 0.100088 69.9717 0.859284 0. 1990 0.093846 126.164 1.43474 0. 2000 0.090779 232.484 2.44599 0.

1- 1| GRO3 GR4 GR05 GR06 -92- Appendix C Page 3 of 8 eeac=se~=e= =e=s=_== CuC='-C= zue =ume--eze_= ==_= _cem5e-ee 1981 0. 0.499583 0.269775 0. 1990 9.659981E-12 0.706156 0.441519 0. 2000 -3.872458E-13 1.14944 0.742512 0.

GROB GRO9 GR10 GRll

1981 0.999167 8.40299 0.199833 0.639467 1990 1.90235 16.4848 0.382354 1.15863 2000 3.74632 32.8483 0.756073 2.08909

=Y======5 =z-=s-5X ===e=== m==u====m=s=n _ 5=- _ SUDU=

GR12 GR13 GR14 GR15 -- eec -Cs ce-c _e=c=e====e==m======c=cee .uminmus== 1981 0.999167 3.10741 2.09825 2.11823 1990 1.92076 5.85884 3.93764 3.63821 2000 3.66783 11.1659 7.46539 6.28682 .=__=5- == ==_-ee_= *e======in======z =ee=S=a

==~======e=e=-=== .======-= = -===c=e======w====e=-==m=.= GR16 GR17 GR18. GR19

1981 0.269775 1.99833 37.6086 9.61199 1990 0.509249 3.70513 52.0534 11.4392 2000 0.976834 6.83015 66.6889 14.2794 =-======'===_======_=====S======__==_======-======

. __===__ == = = __==__====__======3=S=== 3=== e==z===ecze==zU= GR20 GR71 GR72 GVIIO -___=_____= =___,=__-==cn= _- _=__== e= umi 1981 0. 0.039967 0.249792 752.996 1990 0. 0.043381 0.271134 1435.03 2000 0. 0.062102 0.388137 2816.63 .====m =ss ===c_ =_= _ __== ===- = _-_c -n===

GVO IhAT IN IOROI

1981 983.427 115.106 130.253 19.3575 1990 1854.63 212.393 246.728 15.3575 2000 3592a53 370.708 448.526 17.3455

IOR02 IOR03 IOR04 IOR05

1981- 2.29623 1.49754 0. 0. 1990 3.28043 4.09246 0. 1.02982 2000 5.72648 7.71416 0. 1.29981

IOR06 IOR08 IOR09 IOR10

1981 0. 0.798689 37.1674 0.199672 1990 0.413876 6.19053 83.7052 2.25685 2000 0.369985 13.6583 170.903 4.30523 Appendix C 93 ~~~~~Page4 of 8

IOR11 IOR12 IOR13 IOR14

1981 0.449262 4.49262 2.69557 56.8532 1990 6_9533 10.6725 5.07546 111.691 2000 13.6658 18.3811 10.1102 212.866

I-R15 I _R16 IOR17 IOR18

1981 1.79787 2.64729 0. 0. 1990 1-79656 3.949 0. 0. 2000 3.12073 7.61463 0. 0.

IOR19 IOR20 IOR71 IOR72

1981 0. 0. 0. 0. 1990 0. 0. 0.069721 0.629891 2000 0. 0. 0.073997 0.805062

ISHRO1 ISHRO2 ISER03 ISHR04

1981 0.061719 0.031973 0.048839 0.055816 1990 0.025175 0.058194 0.045731 0.08373 2000 0.018693 0.057406 0.042859 0.102093

._==I - ______- = ___ ===__ ISHRO5 ISHRO6 ISHRO7 ISEROB

1981 0.032267 0.02611 0.007984 0.039662 1990 0.031013 0.035072 0.010054 0.049331 2000 0.02733 0.030841 0.010345 0.058383

ISHRO9 ISERlO ISHR13 | ISER12

1981 0.13557 0.021979 0.015326 0.032713 1990 0.151278 0.022252 0.020031 0.01955 2000 - 0.165935 0.02107 0.020771 0.020451

ISHR13 ISHR14 ISHR15 ISHR16

1981 0.039072 0.019021 0.091392 0.144309 1990 0.033428 0.017308 0.104871 0.108863 2000 0.034534 0.016698 0.108391 0.099348

I| - ISBR17 - ISHRM8 | ISHR19 | ISHR20 = Appendix C 94 Page 5 of 8

1981 0.005052 0.023903 0.044938 0.12231 1990 0.004783 0.021767 0.029236 0.128335 2000 0.00443 0.018554 0.025949 0.11592

IILINV ILOSS mU 101

1981 8.4005 0.127808 0.287724 5.471 1990 15.1467 7.18093 0.29 4.19026 2000 27.911 25.9463 0.29 7.66437

102 H03 X04 105

1981 -2.364072E-05 3.18305 0. 0.08885 1990 5.42193 9.9738 0. 3.71762 2000 4.27237 19.7244 0. 7.47569

106 X08 M09 I10

1981 0.000136 4.54298 9.B9489 -1.459753E-05 1990 -2.087775E-05 12.5775 21.1139 0.235652 2000 0.564928 30.5173 46.1823 0.454796

Nil 112 M13 X14

1981 1.21032 6.46084 3.30167 0. 1990 6.71144 4.08128 1.99557 0. 2000 11.8941 7.57256 4.01444 0.

X15 M16 | 17 i8s

1981 1.15167 1.44898 0. 0. 1990 2.37242 2.98488 0. 0. 2000 4.82815 6.07459 0. 0.

319 K20 Mf71 X72

1981 0. 0. 0. 0.020489 1990 .0. 0. 0. 0.37929 2000 0. 0. 0. 2.93142

N NIA NIXP NIPREAL

1981 35.5499 394.329 395.667 395.95 1990 55.5285 706.68 699.B63 701.435 2000 86.2333 1264.52 1258.08 1261.49 Appendix C 95 Page 6 of 8 l= l '- ~~~--I -I-- -I

NKPSNRO1 NNPSER02 NXPSBRO3 NXPSER04'

=-=______= 1981 0.351986 0.045726 0.036846 0.025782 1990 0.289235 0.05277 0.032476 0.036608 2000 0.237636 0.065424 0.029779 0.047258

NNPSERO5 NNPSBR06 NXPSHRO7 NNPSHRO8

1981 0.018319 -0.020822 0.014577 0.047244 1990 0.016084 0.038405 0.018921 0.049547 2000 0.014536 0.045874 0.021985 0.053488

NKPSHRO9 NKPSER1O NNPSERl1 NNPSHR12

1981 0.095528 0.023761 0.045961 0.079803 1990 0.107188 0.024183 0.049597 0.078824 2000 0.115778 0.02243 0.053048 0.071971

NNPSHR13 NMPSHR14 NEP01 NHP02

1981 0.043408 0.046504 139.384 18.107 1990 0.049911 0.050383 206.512 37.6775 2000 0.054452 0.05426 308.749 85.0016

NKPO3 NXPO4 NXP05 NMP06

1981 14.5908 10.2094 7.25407 8.24556 1990 23.1875 26.1381 11.4842 27.4211 2000 38.6898 61.4005 18.8864 59.6014

_ . I-=_ -= -- _- -1---I

NXP07 NXPO8 NXP09 NNP10

1981 5.77252 18.7084 37.8284 9.40924 1990 13.5093 35.3766 76.5318 17.2663 2000 28.5641 69.4947 150.425 29.1426

INKPll NMP12 NMP13 NNP14

1981 18.2003 31.6015 17.1892 18.4151 1990 35.4119 56.2802 35.6362 35.9729 2000 68.9221 93.5082 70.7463 70.497

-[ j PAI03 PK PROF | REALPCC 96 Appendix C

___ =-_ __======_- = _ Page 7 of 8 1981 0.20979 1. 171.855 258.333 1990 0.185275 0.962866 327.649 424.225 2000 0.165261 0.933224 618.048 698.178

RENT SD T VRAT17

1981 8.79085 131.59 13.2711 0.851707 1990 17.6544 239.91 14.2576 0.847151 2000 35.9302 442.085 15.1365 0.847019

. _ = ___~- , =- __-= ===_=_=

WB WB01 WBO2 W03

1981 275.416 134.834 17.3679 1.15253 1990 494.791 202.276 36.1309 1.6864 2000 908.362 304.458 82.4613 2.49005

XLOSS Xol X02 X03

1981 0.198588 2.18973 0.826711 1.74993 1990 6.95083 6.07305 1.55597 1.69771 2000 15.2276 5.86122 3.26143 3.30548

X04 X05 X06 X08

1981 0. 0.330738 1.58025 2.95992 1990 0. 0.244142 1.48213 3.93911 2000 0. 0.374294 -3.410605E-10 9.00261

X09 X3.0 Xl31 X12

1981 4.34112 0.194301 2.64967 10.9904 1990 18.7264 0.679435 6.2093 18.2323 2000 63.4351 1.75664 14.6798 33.6899

X13 X14 X15i X16

1981 3.50996 0. 2.46277 3.44528 1990 10.5964 0. 5.27364 7.37753 2000 32.6296 - 0. 12.6732 17.7291

X17 X18 X19 X20

1981 0. 0. 0. 0. 1990 0. 0. 0. 0. 2000 0. 0. 0. 0. Appendix C 97- Page 8 of 8

* I C _= - = - ---- =- ====- I - = = = = C- = _- I -- =C- __=---== I - -==___- -- I

* ------… - ……------I- X71J X72 Y

1981 0.090048 1.12056 457.349 1990 0. 0.229102 827.275 2000 0. 0.417829 1524.43 - 98 - Appendix D Page 1 of 8

APPENDIX D: ADDITIONAL RESULTS OF BALANCE CHA30UTN

ACCRATE CXAT CMATSER CN

1981 0.291898 239.757 0.608015 255.783 1990 0.265843 447.511 0.636273 488.391 2000 0.262988 794.841 0.640893 901.429

CPI CRO1 CR02 CR03

1981 1. 66.6404 21.4772 0. 1990 0.998122 87.8843 45.6389 -8.884921E-12 2000 0.99131 108.376 84.2898 -9.762273E-12

CR04 CR05 CR06 CR08

1981 0.349349 2.68912 0.019982 5.96367 1990 1.18462 3.61866 0.037655 12.7425 2000 3.42973 4.70148 0.064608 24.9211

CRO9 CR10 CRll CR12

1981 15.1133 0. 51.9449 30.4641 1990 33.172 -5.564935E-10 110.779 57.1917 2000 66.4341 -6.122169E-10 211.071 99.8314

CR13 CR14 CR15 CR1'

___ ==- _ __ ==__ -- =--- == = 1981 8.65082 0. 5.23404 - 25.9136 3990 18.4691 1.638257E-10 11.6568 53.885 2000 36.059 1.794750E-10 23.4168 122.093

CR17 CR18 CR19 CR20

1981 7.98641 1.79847 0. 11.2076 1990 24.9103 3.33092 5.866085E-12 24.4976 2000 69.8524 5.57562 6.160365E-12 48.4808

CR71 CR72 DDO1 DD02

1981 0. 0.329768 178.882 40.7727 1990 1.069919E-U1 0.554071 243.756 83.8817 2000 1.134777E-11 - 0.865874 336.764 165.387 Appendix D 99 Page 2 of 8

DD03 DD04 DDO5 DD06

1981 47.123 19.4178 16.378 11.3199 1990 78.1336 35.442 26.1392 15.9622 2000 130.602 68.2337 39.6432 25.4677

DD08 DD09 DD10 DD11

1981 62.1128 118.604 23.0154 68.7507 1990 127..653 245.834 43.2465 156.981 2000 259.721 492.44 76.0959 333.886

DD12 DD13 DD14 DD15

1981 104.741 49.6923 75.0476 29.7973 1990 185.78 90.4173 146.114 57.0076 2000 311.978 163.039 271.521 109.209

DD16 DD17 DD18 DD19

1981 50.0877 11.9542 39.4065 9.61185 1990 110.881 55.3948 57.6688 .11.597 2000 263.361 177.316 76.0109 14.9378

DD20 DD71 DD72 DEPR

1981 11.2076 1.58995 12.2399 23.5478 1990 24.4976 2.49252 21.9646 49.201 2000 48.4808 3.76274 39.9058 102.306

DEPRIB DEPR19 EXCHR GNAT

1981 0.80728 0.80554 1,7 39.4671 1990 -0.392502 2.09877 1.08069 68.8445 2000 -0.05574 3.85625 0.603057 119.208

GNATSHR GNi GROl GRO2

1981 0.100087 69.9706 0.859271 0. 1990 0.097883 133.602 1.50943 0. 2000 0.096119 246.59 2.85546 0.

= - = -GR03 GRO4 I GRO5 I GRO6 Appendix D - 100 - Page 3 of 8

1981 0. 0.499576 0.269771 0. 1990 -4.059211E-10 0.766548 0.464523 0. 2000 2.125595E-10 1.21932 0.781157 0.

GRO8 GRO9 GR10 GRll

1981 0.999152 8.40287 0.19983 0.639457 1990 2.05648 17.7892 0.404235 1.23665 2000 4.02132 35.2816 0.795749 2.33388

GR12 GR13 GR14 GR1S

1981 0.999152 3.10736 2.09822 2.1182 1990 2.0893 6.20019 4.1719 3.83383 2000 4.04955 11.9341 7.9142 6.58334

GR16 GR17 GR18 GRl9

1981 0.269771 1.9983 37.6081 9.61185 1990 0.535488 4.33303 54.3379 11.597 2000 0.968814 7.44939 70.4353 14.9378 == =Q= =e_ =_ = e -- =__= -=__===_- _ -_=--- ===-==-

GR20 GR71 GR72 GVII^O

1981 0. 0.039966 0.249788 752.996 1990 0. 0.047102 0.29439 1353.84 2000 0. 0.065589 0.409931 2454.13

- -= ______-- ~-- -- -|==----=--=-- |=-- - __-= -|------===--=| GVO INAT IN IORO1

1981 983.416 115.104 130.251 19.3574 1990 1823.78 186.976 220.137 15.7899 2000 3431.19 326.159 398.861 18.0155

IOR02 IOR03 IOR04 IOR05

1981 2.29616 1.49749 0. 0. 1990 1.62782 1.82298 0. 0.51125 2000 3.93672 3.94524 0. 0.875859

IOR06 IOR08 IOR09 IOR10

1981 0. 0.798665 37.1668 0.199666 1990 0.211845 2.9568 78.455 1.05761 2000 0.250417 7.83895 156.761 2.48448 - 101 - Appendix D Page 4 of 8 I _ _ _== ==_ ======-I======-- I- __ = _=- .I _= == I

IORll IOR12 IOR13 IOR14 ___ 3Q======- _= ==-3======___== _._ ======1981 0.449249 4.49249 2.69549 56.8524 1990 3.55728 5.07775 2.28416 111.88 2000 9.65598 10.8103 5.40513 207.727

IOR15 IOR16 IOR17 IOR18

1981 1.79783 2.64724 0. 0. 1990 1.78987 3.92591 0. 0. 2000 3.00817 6.95183 0. -0.

.__= __ -=__ Q= = . =I== _ = = C = = = _ Q _ = _

IOR13 IOR20 | IOR71 XOR72

1981 0. 0. 0. 0. 1990 0. 0. 0.03572 0.322715 2000 0. 0. 0.050056 0.544598

ISHROl ISHRO2 ISHRO3 ISHRO4

1981 0.06172 0.031966 0.047531 0.055811 1990 0.028498 0.064898 0.032341 0.083951 2000 0.020849 0.063632 0.027626 0.101241

ISHRO5 ISHR06 ISHR07 ISHRO8

1981 0.032267 0.02611 0.007984 0.038383 1990 0.034366 0.038839 0.011137 0.041439 2000 0.030521 0.034409 0.011546 0.043436

ISHRO9 ISHR10 ISHR1l ISHR12

1981 0.150695 0.021405 0.014667 0.035693 1990 0.13425_1 0.020874 0.018848 0.015113 2000 0.118686 0.017046 0.019727 0.014054

ISHR13 ISHR14 ISHR1S ISHRI6

1981 0.045042 0.018385 0.091384 0.125143 1990 0.027825 0.019253 0.106351 0.103592 2000 0.024064 0.016492 0.108847 0.132779

I ISEP17 | ISHR18 ISER19 | ISHR20 -102- Appendi D Page 5 of 8 ffiC~=_======. _ ======,,==_======_=== 1981 0.004643 0.023901 0.044934 0.122293 1990 0.015828 0.024171 0.030046 0.148378 2000 0.022273 0.021582 0.031427 0.139761 _ z===_-__= _ =-_ ======s======-

MILINV MLOSS NU f01

1981 8.40037 0.127691 0.287724 5.47209 1990 16.0396 7.90596 0.255 4.19026 2000 29.6045 25.7696 0.255 6.73566

. == , __-- __ == =- __ _ - -- - : = - -= ==8--_.-_-_-

f02 X03 M04 M05

1981 -2.226979E-05 3.18288 0. 0.088729 1990 5.60582 7.65273 0. 1.9691 2000 3.9919 14.615 0. 2.588

=: =====_=-==__ _ - ======- f06 mo08 09 f10 =_ ~~ =_ == = ==_-_ _-__ =--__ = 1981 0.00013 4.54275 9.8946 -1.156330E-05 1990 -1.838808E-05 12.2519 26.3477 0.216232 2000 -2.414736E-05 27.1121 59.1254 0.380491

ff1l f12 X13 f14

1981 1.21036 6.46118 .3.30228 0. 1990 5.48003 3.71559 3.19199 0. 2000 10.3244 6.23965 9.77773 0.

ff15 ff16 M17 fs18

1981 1.15171 1.44903 0. 0. 1990 2.38734 3.00365 0. 0. 2000 4.76145 5.99067 0. 0.

Xl9 ff20 171 ff72

1981 0. 0. 0. 0.020445 1990 0. 0. 0. 0.21963 2000 0. 0. 0. 0.399054

N NIA NNP NIEPREAL

1981 35.5499 394.327 395.666 395.948 1990 55.5285 703.331 696.092 696.568 2000 86.2333 1240.21 1234.29 1236.07 103 Appendix D Page 6 of 8

I = .~ ~ =I __==___=== I =. __===== I__- - ==.== | ==~~== .=ze I

___. ===______== --- ======__ ====.=-== -__ce===_ NNPSHROI NNPSHRO2 NHPSHR03 NNPSHR04

=- -====___=_=_ ----==2= __-=_====-= _ 1981 0.351987 0.045726 0.036846 0.025782 1990 0.294827 0.05818 0.028707 0.034934 2000 0.216296 0.072049 0.024166 0.045766

NMPSHRO5 NNPSHRO6 NMPSHRO7 NKPSHRO8

1981 0.018319 0.020823 0.014577 0.047244 1990 0.017067 0.037958 0.018941 0.04661 2000 0.015903 0.047684 0.023493 0.0479

I == ~------======_===== -======C ==

NMPSHRO9 NEPSHR10 NKPSHR1I NMPSHR12

1981 0.095528 0.023761 0.045961 0.079804 1990 0.096846 0.023392 0.050201 0.072401 2000 0.099396 0.020836 0.056014 0.06298

NKPSHR13 NNPSHR14 NNPO1 NNP02

1981 0.04340B 0.0465C3 139.384 18.107 1990 0.04632 0.053679 208.965 41.2359 2000 0.046091 0.058604 274.082 91.2979

NXP03 NXP04 NEPOS NNP06 __= =__-- -==-- __ __ .== __= -- = =_=_ .= = 1981 14.5908 10.2093 7.25407 8.24556 1990 20.3466 24.7599 12.0968 26.9036 2000 30.6227 57.9929 20.152 60.4235

- =1== - ' =1- --- 1= --- ====1- - -- I----=

NNP07 NKP08 NHPO9 NNP10

1981 5.77252 18.7084 37.8284 9.40924 1990 13.4245 33.0357 68.6413 16.5798 2000 29.7689 60.6974 125.95 26.4022

NMP11 NNP12 NNP13 NNP14

1981 18.2003 31.6016 17.1892 18.4149 1990 35.5809 51.3154 32.8304 38.0459 2000 70.9787 79.806 58.4048 74.2608

I------=1 PA103 I PK PROF REALPCC Appendix D Page 7 of 8

1981 0.20979 1. - 171.852 258.329 1990 0.184117 0.953383 303.205 451.853 2000 0.168035 0.922577 568.439 760.195

uin__==3S__-CS=m=Z== ==S~~SmW-C =~=min rn CZm__=l:uCue

RENT SD T VRAT17 5===5= - S====CCGC = = =ze=ci=cecc__= =s=e _ ==eescM 1981 8.7907 131.588 13.2711 0.851705 1990 19.206 212.897 14.2576 0.846498 2000 38.6795 392.946 15.1365 0.867474

WB WBOI WBO2 W03 _ m- zsc-s=e-~= _ ==sc===e=e ac=in csicnieese c ncScSc=s -- ==- ea eesche== 1981 275.412 134.834 17.3677 1.15252 1990 523.451 203.582 38.7817 1.7631 2000 962.908 263.523 84.544 2.52787 em _===s= in==e===c= ==S - m==5cccC=mmm=e ss==inmminse

XLOSS XO1 X02 X03 inmmS=== =i=CC-=:=_= m=== m === mmrnin=lX_-= = mrn=Ac=- 1981 0.198489 2.18973 0.827274 1.74993 - 1990 4.77266 6.07306 1.59747 3.201 2000 7.09385 12.1406 3.29378 6.10107

X04 X05 X06 X08 -_=5__ _- =e=,======_======_===s======_* Ym==|==== 1981 0. 0.330738 1.58025 2.95992 1990 0. 0.244142 1.84539 6.56983 2000 0. 0.374294 0.01091 14.8401

|_-_-===== ______======-= le====n===m ==mm==_=== |=c======--ss X09 X1O Xll X12 | = === | = =i__ ---inmin = - -* S: f= - a_m 1981 4.34112 0.194561 2.64967 10.9904 1990 12.4935 0.8809 6.31252 18.3156 2000 42.4931 2.5337 13.4817 27.3174

|==- - =nni _ =es-^sas=tc==a==3==aaemminnmi uinm=_- X13 X14 X15 1X16 I _ -. =_ _=====c m-=c===ac- in==mss inmms^sa^= 1981 3.50996 0. 2.46283 3.44536 1990 8.3037 0. 5.07207 7.09554 2000 23.6366 0. 11.2414 15.7261

I Z_=-=_= I =-=_ _=, ======__,-= ,==__ ---- ======-.

| ===_~ ~ |_=_=_= ~= --- === =S = G_===-|-__=--=----==== X17 X18 119 X20

1981 0. 0. 0. 0. 1990 0. 0. 0. 0. 2000 0. 0. 0. 0. Appendix D - 105- Page 8 of 8

X71 X72 Y

1981 0.090048. 1.12056 457.342 1990 0. 1.16519 834.89 2000 0. 2.27617 1540.96 …======-… ======… ======