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External Shocks and Structural Adjustment in the Post-Reform

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External Shocks and Structural Adjustment in the Post-Reform 6.S.q?- EXTERNAT SHOCKS AND STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT IN THE POST.REFORM CHINESE ECONOMY OF THE 1986 OIL PRICE FALL - THE CASE A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Zhaoyang Peng to The Department of Economics The University of Adelaide April, 1992 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES v LIST OF FIGURES vll SELECTED ABBREVIATIONS ix ABSTRACT X REStrARCH DECLARATION xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xiii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Historical Context: The Chinese Economy Toward Mid-1980s 2 1.1.1 Success of rural reforms in early 1980s 2 L.L.z Industrial enterprisereforms b 1.1.3 Structural contradiction and economic overheating I 1.2 The Approach of this Study I4 1.3 Plan of the Thesis I7 2 THE ORIGINS OF ENERGY SHORTAGES IN CHINA 20 2.1 A Brief Overview of China's Energy Resources 20 2.2 Energy Production in China 28 2.2.I Rapid but unstable growth of China's energy production 32 2.2.2 Structural change in primary energy output mix 34 2.3 Energy Consumption in China 36 2.3.L Primary energy consumption 36 2.3.2 Final energy consumption +I 2.3.3 Trends in China's energy consumption 46 2.4 Energy Pricing in China 52 2.4.I Energy price distortions 52 2.4.2 Two-tier price system and international comparisons bf) 2.5 China's Energy Trade and the World Oil Price Decline in 1986 61 2.6 Conclusions 67 3 THE THEORETICAL STRUCTURE 69 3.1 Booming Sector Economics Literature 69 3.1.1 The core model 72 3.L2 Traditional two-sector model 78 3.1.3 Monetary aspect of the "Dutch disease" 81 3.2 Application to Oil Price Fall 84 3.2.L The spending effect of an oil price fall 88 3.2.2 The resource movement effect of an oil price fall 88 3.2.3 Monetary consequences of an oil price fall 89 3.3 Quantity Constrained Models 93 3.3.1 A theoretical framework of modelling controls 94 3.3.2 Applied case studies 101 3.4 Conclusion 104 4 MARKETS IN POST-REFORM CHINA 106 4.I Introduction 106 4.2 The Pre-Reform System of Resource Planning in China r07 4.3 Institutional Reforms and Creation of Market Mechanisms 111 4.4 The Nature of the Two-Tier Price System TL7 4.5 Limit of the Two-Tier Price System Lzl 4.6 Conclusions 131 5 THE 1986 OIL PRICE FALL AND THE SPENDING EFFECT 133 5.1 Introduction IJ()100 5.2 Rent-Taxation in China's Oil Industry 135 5.3 Effects of the 1986 Oil Price Shock 140 5.4 Government Performance Subsequent to the Shock r46 5.4.7 Fiscal policy L46 5.4.2 Monetary policy 148 5.4.3 Exchange rate policy 151 5.5 Conclusions lbb ll 6 A CGE ENERGY MODEL 156 6.1 Why a CGE Model? 156 6.2 A China Model and the Data Base 159 6.2.I A simple SAM 160 6.2.2 The input-output data base t72 6.2.3 Adjustment of the World Bank I-O Tabie L77 6.3 Features of a China Energy Model 186 6.4 Equations of the Model 194 6.4.I Production behaviouralequations 196 6.4.2 Final demands equations 199 6.4.3 Foreign sector equations 207 6.4.4 Market clearing equations 202 6.4.5 Pricing equations 203 6.4.6 Macroeconomicequations 205 t MODEL SIMULATION RESULTS 2t3 7.I General Effects 2r3 7.2 Implications of the Dual Foreign Exchange Rate System in China 219 7.3 Base Run Simulation 222 7.+ MacroeconomicPackages 230 7.4.I One-target and one-instrument package 23t 7.4.2 Two-target and two-instrument package 234 7.5 Fiscal and Monetary Policy Issues 236 7.6 Robustness of the Model Results 244 7.6.I Symmetrical test 245 7.6.2 Sensitivityanalysis 249 7.7 Conclusions 254 8 CONCLUSIONS 256 8.1 Summary of the Study 256 8.2 Central Conclusion and Policy Implications 260 111 Appendix A: HBADER ARRAY FILES OF THE CHINA CGE MODEL 262 Appendix B: TABLO INPUT FILE OF THE CHINA CGE MODEL 275 REFERENCES 288 lv LIST OF TABLES 2.r China's Position in World Energy Resources and Reserves, 1976 and 1986 22 2.2 China's Primary Energy Production in Original Units, 1949-1990 29 2.3 China's Total Energy Production and its Composition, 1949-1990 30 2.4 China's Total Energy Consumption and its Composition, 1952-1990 37 2.5 International Comparisons of Primary Energy Consumption, 1982 40 2.6 Matrix of Energy Consumption in China, by Sector by Energy Type, 1985 42 2.7 Energy Mix in China, by Energy Type, 1985 43 2.8 Energy Distribution in China, by Sector, 1985 44 2.9 International Comparisons of Final Energy Consumption, 1980 48 2.r0 International Comparisons of Electricity Consumption Elasticities, 1960-1980 48 2.LL Two-Tier Prices for China's Energy Products, Early 1985 58 2.72 Comparison of China's Home Energy Price with Energy Price Abroad, 1960-1987 60 2.13 Energy Balance for China's Major Energy Export Products, 1980-1990, (million tonnes) 64 2.r4 China's Oil Export Revenues, 1958-1990 (US$ million) O,l 3.1 Price Indexes for Booming Commodities, 1970-1980 7L 4.r Return Rates in Selected Chinese Industries, 1978 110 4.2 Share of Planned and Market Allocation of Products, 1987 LI4 4.3 Changes in the Structure of Employment in China, 1978-1986 130 5.1 Ratios of Chinese Oil Prices to World Oil Prices, 1987 r37 5.2 Decomposition of the Revenues for Above-Quota Output of Oil 137 LO d,J Budget Deficit and Financing, 1979-1988 r4l 5.4 State Funds Allocation to Oil Industry and Fiscal Deficit 143 b.b Interest Rates in China's Specialised Banks, 1971-1988 150 b.b China's Credit Growth, 1978-1988, (Rmb, billion Yuan) 150 v Ð. I Terms of Trade, Nominal and Real Exchange Rates and Money Supply 153 6.1 Comparisons of Chinese MPS us. Western SNA & SAM 163 6.2 Structure of a Simplified Social Accounting Matrix 164 6.3 A Simple Social Accounting Matrix for China, 1980 169 6.4 Price Adjustments Used to Revise the World Bank I-O Table 181 b.b Input-Output Data Base for the China CGE Model, (1986 Nlarket Prices, Rmb, billion Yuan) 184-185 6.6 Equations of the China CGE Model (in Linearised Forms) 208-209 6.7 Valiables, Parameters and Coefficients in the China CGE Model 2r0-2r2 7,L Simulation Results of an Oil Price Shock to the China Energy Model and Adjustment Experiments (in Percentages) 224 7.2 Sectoral Employment Multipliers and Base Run Impacts 226 no f.J Interindustry Energy Flows in Leontief Inverse 229 7.4 Effects of Fiscal Deficit Finance on Money Supply 24r t.b Effects of Enterprises' Excess Spending on Money Supply 243 l.o Results of Symmetrical Test of the Model (in Percentages) 247 ùnt.t Sensitivity Elasticities of Base Run Results 25r 7.8 Further Test of Energy Flow Sensitivities in Other Experiments 252 VI LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 Changes of Sectoral Shares in Gross Material Product, China, i978-88 4 2,1 China's Coal Resources 25 2.2 China's Oil and Gas Basins 26 2.3 China's Hydropower Potential (in GW) 27 2.4 Annual Growth Rate of China's Energy Production and Correlation with State Energy Investment, 1953-1990 31 2.5 China's Energy Output Composition, 1949-1990 31 2.6 Comparison of the Structures of China's Energy Consumption and Production by Major Types of Energy Product, 1952-1990 38 2.7 Ratios of Consumption to Production for Oil and Coal, 1952-1990 38 2.8 Energy Price Trends, 1952-1988 54 2.9 Oil Burned in China, 1966-1988 54 2.L0 Volumes of China's Energy Exports, 1950-1990 62 3.1 Non-Traded Goods Market in the Booming Sector Model 74 3.2 Resource Flows in the Booming Sector Model 76 tt t-). t-) Traditional Two-Sector Model 79 3.4 iVlonetary Effects of the Dutch Disease 83 ot tJ.d Effects of the Oil Price Fall 87 3.6 Monetary Adjustment to Oil Price Fall with a Fixed Exchange Rate 91 tn J.¡ A Trade Shock Model with Quantity Constraints 96 3.8 A Terms of Trade Shock in a Controlled Model 99 4,I Trvo-Tier Pr-ices in a Pure Market r20 4.2 Two-Tier Prices in a Monopolist Market 120 4.3 Resource Allocation in Twin Capitalist and Labour Managed Firms 126 5.1 Changes in the World Oil Prices (Trade Weighted, US$/Barrel), 1970-1990 134 vll 6.1 Input-Output Data Base L74 7.r Adjustment to an External Shock in a Simple General Equilibrium Framework 215 7.2 Effects of a Fixed Absorption in the External Shock Adjustment 218 7.3 Effects of a Dual Exchange Rate System 22r vlll SELECTED ABBREVIATIONS Chinese Acronyms CASS Chinese Academy of Social Sciences CESRRI Chinese Economic System Reform Research Institute IERI Industrial Economics Research Institute QATERI Quantitative and Technological Economic Research Institute Rmb Renminbi, (People's money), the name of the Chinese currency. The basic unit of Renminbi is "Yuan", equivalent to "dollar". Energy Units Bt Billion tonne GW Gigawatts, equivalent to 1 x 106 kilowatts Kwh Kiiowatt hour Mt Million tonne Mtce Million tonne coal equivalent Tcm Trillion cubic meters Computing Glossary GEMPACK General equilibrium model package CPU Central processing unit Mb Megabytes PC -Personal computer RAM Random access memory IX ABSTRACT This is a theoretical and empirical study of the structural adjustment to external shocks in the post-reform Chinese economy, focusing on the case of the 1986 oil price fall.
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