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A Journal of Policy Development and Research Crime aNd urbaN Form Volume 13, Number 3 • 2011 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Policy Development and Research Managing Editor: Mark D. Shroder Associate Editor: Michelle P. Matuga Advisory Board Peter Dreier Occidental College Richard K. Green University of Southern California Keith R. Ihlanfeldt The Florida State University Annette M. Kim Massachusetts Institute of Technology Carlos E. Martín Abt Associates Inc. Douglas S. Massey Princeton University Sandra J. Newman Johns Hopkins University Marybeth Shinn Vanderbilt University Raymond J. Struyk National Opinion Research Center Paul Waddell University of California, Berkeley John C. Weicher Hudson Institute, Inc. Cityscape A Journal of Policy Development and Research Crime and Urban Form VolUme 13, nUmber 3 • 2011 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research The goal of Cityscape is to bring high-quality original research on housing and community development issues to scholars, government officials, and practitioners. Cityscape is open to all relevant disciplines, including architecture, consumer research, demography, economics, engineering, ethnography, finance, geography, law, planning, political science, public policy, regional science, sociology, statistics, and urban studies. Cityscape is published three times a year by the Office of Policy Development and Research (PD&R) of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Subscriptions are available at no charge and single copies at a nominal fee. The journal is also available on line at http://www. huduser.org/periodicals/cityscape.html. PD&R welcomes submissions to the Refereed Papers section of the journal. Our referee process is double blind and timely, and our referees are highly qualified. The managing editor will also respond to authors who submit outlines of proposed papers regarding the suitability of those proposals for inclusion in Cityscape. Send manuscripts or outlines to [email protected]. Opinions expressed in the articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of HUD or the U.S. government. Visit PD&R’s websites, www.hud.gov/policy or www.huduser.org, to find this report and others sponsored by HUD’s Office of Policy Development and Research (PD&R). Other services of HUD USER, PD&R’s Research and Information Service, include listservs, special interest and bimonthly publications (best practices, significant studies from other sources), access to public use databases, and a hotline (1–800–245–2691) for help with accessing the information you need. Contents Symposium Crime and Urban Form Guest Editor: Ronald E. Wilson Guest Editor’s Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 Sex Offenders, Residence Restrictions, Housing, and Urban Morphology: A Review and Synthesis .............................................................................................................. 7 by Tony H. Grubesic, Alan T. Murray, and Elizabeth A. Mack The Coaction of Neighborhood and Individual Effects on Juvenile Recidivism .................... 33 by Philip W. Harris, Jeremy Mennis, Zoran Obradovic, Alan J. Izenman, and Heidi E. Grunwald Mapping the Spatial Influence of Crime Correlates: A Comparison of Operationalization Schemes and Implications for Crime Analysis and Criminal Justice Practice ....................... 57 by Joel M. Caplan HOPE VI Resident Displacement: Using HOPE VI Program Goals To Evaluate Neighborhood Outcomes .......................................................................................................... 85 by Roderick W. Jones and Derek J. Paulsen Using the Weighted Displacement Quotient To Explore Crime Displacement From Public Housing Redevelopment Sites ..................................................................................... 103 by Meagan Cahill Do Vouchers Help Low-Income Households Live in Safer Neighborhoods? Evidence on the Housing Choice Voucher Program .................................................................................... 135 by Michael C. Lens, Ingrid Gould Ellen, and Katherine O’Regan Modeling Criminal Distance Decay ........................................................................................ 161 by Mike O’Leary Crime and Place: Rapidly Evolving Research Methods in the 21st Century ........................ 199 by Patricia Brantingham Advances in the Identification of Space As a Structuring Factor of Social Reality .............. 205 by Leandro Ramos A South African Commentary on the Articles in the Cityscape Symposium on Crime and Urban Form ...................................................................................................................... 209 by Peter M.U. Schmitz, Tinus Kruger, and Antony K. Cooper Departments Graphic Detail Visualizing Racial Segregation Differently: Exploring Geographic Patterns in Context ..... 213 by Ronald E. Wilson Cityscape iii Contents Data Shop A Beginner’s Guide To Creating Small-Area Cross-Tabulations ............................................ 225 by Haydar Kurban, Ryan Gallagher, Gulriz Aytekin Kurban, and Joseph Persky Impact The Impact of Home Energy Retrofit Loan Insurance: A Pilot Program ............................... 237 by Alastair McFarlane Correction ................................................................................................................................. 251 iv Crime and Urban Form Guest Editor’s Introduction Ronald E. Wilson U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Introduction The increasing role of geographical analysis in solving social problems is not just a practical response by government agencies. Illustrated in this issue of Cityscape is the incorporation of geographic methods and techniques toward understanding issues of crime and disorder, two major negative influences on the quality of life in urban America. The primary emphasis in the use of this new ap- proach is on the delivery of programs and services to people through place as a means to increase the impact of federal, state, and local investments on the quality of life in urban neighborhoods. Urban Geography, Place, and Crime Crime changes with urban development patterns. Opportunities for criminal activity emerge, dis- appear, or move as geography changes across the urban landscape. Patterns emerge, dissipate, or persist based on changes in economic, ecological, and demographic conditions. Future crimes are far more predictable by place of occurrence than by a particular offender (Sherman and Weisburd, 1995; Weisburd et al., 2004). The greater predictability arises because places are relatively rigid; land use, infrastructure, and even demography change slowly. Places are resistant to change in the absence of major investments of time and money to make change occur. Public policy, especially local public policy, usually drives such investments. The environmental criminology subdiscipline began with the 1975 paper, “Residential Burglary and Urban Form,” (Brantingham and Brantingham, 1975, 1981). As one of the first empirical studies to establish the interaction between criminals and geography, the Brantinghams examined the geographic patterns of criminal offending within and between places. Environmental criminol- ogy fused geographical principles with criminological theory, providing opportunities to test empirically interactions between crime and place. The resulting research applied and tested new theories of crime rooted in urban development, including crime pattern theory (Brantingham and Brantingham, 1975), routine activities (Cohen and Felson, 1979), journey to crime (Phillips, 1980; Rengert, 1992), and geographic profiling (Rossmo, 2000). Other longstanding theories, such as social disorganization (Shaw and McKay, 1942), rational choice (Cornish and Clarke, 1986), territoriality (Taylor, 1988), and deviant places (Stark, 1987) were modified from this research to include a geographic aspect. Geographic theories strengthen criminological theories by providing a place-based foundation for where offenders live, why incidences occur where they do, and how Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research • Volume 13, Number 3 • 2011 Cityscape 1 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development • Office of Policy Development and Research Wilson offenders move within a particular geography. Geographic theories also offer insight into the devel- opment and change of urban form (spatial organization) and into the interactions between places that form from those changes (spatial interaction). The development of Geographic Information System (GIS) software and spatial statistics has significantly affected the ability of law enforcement to combat crime and criminal justice to deliver services (Wilson, 2007). Because crimes have a spatial structure and form cohesive patterns, place-based approaches can make public policy more efficient. Actions from public policy simul- taneously affect multiple people within the same target area. Crime types have a spatial structure based on urban geography. Residential burglaries happen only in residential areas. Commercial robberies, likewise, transpire only in commercial districts. Auto thefts more frequently happen in places with large amounts of parking that are difficult to monitor. Homicide tends to occur across larger areas where poverty, inequality, physical deterioration, and economic decline