Gesprächskreis Partnerschaft mit Russland in Europa Partnership with Russia in Europe Scenarios for a Future Partnership and Cooperation Agreement Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Gesprächskreis Partnerschaft mit Russland in Europa Partnership with Russia in Europe Scenarios for a Future Partnership and Cooperation Agreement Fourth Discussion Circle Meeting Morozovka (near Moscow) September 10–12, 2006 Herausgegeben vom Referat Mittel- und Osteuropa, der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Abteilung Internationaler Dialog Partnership with Russia in Europe FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG © Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Herausgeber: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Referat Mittel- und Osteuropa Gesprächskreis Partnerschaft mit Russland in Europa Abteilung Internationaler Dialog Hiroshimastraße 17 10785 Berlin Layout: Pellens Kommunikationsdesign GmbH, Bonn Druck: Printed in Germany, November 2006 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG Partnership with Russia in Europe Content Matthes Buhbe / Vyacheslav Nikonov Preface 5 Katinka Barysch Scenarios for a future Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. Notes from the 4th roundtable 6 1. Scenarios for a future PCA 7 2. Energy security in Europe 12 3. Approaches for solving European regional confl icts 15 Fyodor Lukyanov A new agreement between Russia and the European Union: terms and opportunities 18 Sabine Fischer Russia and the EU – new developments in a diffi cult partnership 23 1. Introduction 23 2. EU-Russia relations under the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement – a story of success? 24 3. The future of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement: Options and scenarios 27 4. Conclusion 31 Documents 33 Literature 34 Programme 36 List of Participants 38 Partnership with Russia in Europe FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG Preface This is a report on the fourth discussion circle agreement? Is it, however, advisable or even “Partnership with Russia in Europe”. The core possible to have an effective partnership with a circle consists of politicians, experts and diplo- focus only on ‘common interests’? Should, in this mats from Brussels, Berlin and Moscow, with respect, the expiring Partnership and Coopera- participants from other “European capitals” as tion Agreement only be revised or completely well. The discussion circle, established in 2004, reformulated? intends to strengthen the dialogue among EU- The current state of affairs is well-known. Europeans and Russians concerning a deepening For the European Union the next years are of the relationship. It intends to support solid crucial in the development of a common foreign plans and to initiate new ideas for intensifying and security policy CFSP and the completion of the partnership with Russia in Europe. The Part- what has been called the constitutional treaty in nership and Cooperation Agreement between order to position the EU more convincingly as a Russia and the European Union (PCA) as well as unifi ed actor in external relations. The CFSP does the bi-annual EU-Russia summits serve as key include, but should not be limited, to a new references. Since the PCA expires in November European Neighbourhood Policy. Simultaneous- 2007, the third discussion circle (held at Pots- ly, the establishment of a comprehensive consti- dam, December 2005) was already intensely tutional framework would not only strengthen debating the future of the PCA. The fourth meet- cohesion within the EU, but could also help to ing is continuing this debate. persuade the neighbours of the EU to be even The discussion circle tries to fi nd answers more directed towards a common European to more basic questions as well, particularly: value-system. On the other hand, the Russian How can “vast Russia” and a slowly emerging Federation aims with the help of cooperation “political union” of European Union member within Europe to accelerate the economic and states cooperate more effectively? In which, if technological development in Russia, but without not in all, spheres is cooperation possible? How the goal of membership in the European Union binding are the agreed upon Road Maps and or relinquishing her sovereignty. The Russian respective Action Plans for the partners? Why leadership agrees to jointly construct four Com- not adding precise time frames to advance the mon European Spaces (economy; home affairs; successful implementation of intended actions? security; science and culture). Nevertheless, Rus- In other words, is it possible to manage the sia intends to be a major player in a multilateral complex interaction between the Eurasian state world, with responsibilities beyond EU-Russia and the European Union in a strategic manner? relations. Indeed, where are the established mutual The discussion circle wants to explore how interests and where are the potential confl icts in the tensions in the positions can be alleviated the strategic refl ections of both sides? What does and whether each approach of the two partners Russia and what does the European Union expect towards a constructive development of the EU- from their ‘strategic partnership’? What was Russia partnership can be transformed into an intended when the existing PCA was signed with effective common strategy. With regard to the its focus on ‘common values’ instead of ‘common German-Russian dialogue and other bilateral interests’? And does it remain the core of a future dialogues between individual member-states of 4 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG Partnership with Russia in Europe the European Union and Russia the roundtables for the roundtables on the invitation of experts will consider the following developments: A and policy-makers from different European stronger reference to Europe in the bilateral states. The roundtables will highlight Russian dialogue is even more important after the enlarge- interests, perceptions and policies in relation to ments of the European Union, 2004 and 2007. those of the EU and will identify the involve- The Russian side has already acknowledged that. ment of bilateral discourses within the context The politics of Europe – which actors in the EU of the EU. states realise – can increasingly less be differen- We hope that the report of the fourth meet- tiated in European politics and foreign policy. ing in Morozovka near Moscow will fi nd your The Friedrich Ebert Foundation and the Unity interest. The next meeting is scheduled for spring for Russia Foundation, therefore try as joint 2007 in Potsdam during the EU-presidency of organizers to focus in the selection of participants Germany. Matthes Buhbe Vyacheslav Nikonov 5 Partnership with Russia in Europe FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG Katinka Barysch Chief Economist, Centre for European Reform (CER), London Scenarios for a future Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. Notes from the 4th roundtable Overall impression dependence on Russian energy. Third, as the EU’s role as a foreign policy actor grows, it will Participants from both Russia and the EU coun- need Russian cooperation to address interna- tries stressed that the continuity provided by this tional challenges ranging from a nuclear Iran to series of roundtables offered a rare opportunity a post-Kyoto treaty on climate change. for genuine dialogue. They thought that by bring- Europeans feel that they have made Russia ing the same (or a very similar) group of experts a number of attractive offers, including visa together on a regular basis, the roundtables faci litation, the ‘four spaces’ and support in ad - helped to foster trust and open discussion. dres sing the ‘frozen confl icts’ in the post-Soviet However, given that most of the participants space. Russia, however, appears to have concen- know each other – and each others’ arguments trated on the problems involved rather than – quite well by now, some also expressed frustra- pushing these initiatives forward. The EU hopes tion about the lack of real progress in the discus- that the forthcoming negotiations on the PCA sion. Some Russian participants were puzzled will be an opportunity to resolve some of these that their EU counterparts still did not take on issues and move cooperation forward. They also board their arguments. Some of the Europeans, hope that the talks will be a forum to raise their on the other hand, complained about provocative concerns about democratic standards in Russia. rhetoric on the Russian side, and the seeming For Russia too, the EU and its members are lack of willingness to engage in a more construc- very important partners, not least since US-Rus- tive debate. sia relations are getting more diffi cult. The EU Some participants thought that the meeting remains Russia’s largest market for energy and mirrored the overall state of EU-Russia relations other exports. And on many global issues, Rus- in the second half of 2006, as Russia and the EU sia’s position is close to the European one. are getting ready to negotiate a new treaty to However, Russians often feel that the Euro- succeed the Partnership and Cooperation Agree- peans “hear but don’t listen”. The Europeans ment (PCA). seem to think that they know what is best for For a number of reasons, good relations Russia. They still insist that bilateral cooperation with Russia are of increasing importance for the and mutual integration has to be based on the EU. First, after eastward enlargement in 2004, EU’s rules and regulations, rather than a con- the EU and Russia share a common neighbour- vergence of norms and policies. Russia’s situa- hood that harbours a number of potential prob- tion, however, has changed fundamentally since lems, such as separatism or organised crime. it fi rst signed the PCA with the EU in 1994. Today, Second, with oil prices at record highs and fol- the Russian political scene is stable, its economy lowing the Ukrainian gas crisis in January 2006, is growing at around 7% a year, it has paid off Europeans are more than ever aware of their most of its external debt and it has amassed more 6 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG Partnership with Russia in Europe than US$ 300 billion from energy sales in its The Finnish and German presidencies are stabilisation fund and on the central bank’s bal- seen as an opportunity because both countries ance sheet.