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Home , Avi Dichter, Avi Gabbay, Gadi Eizenkot, Yariv Levin, Yoav Galant

Israel and the Middle East News Update

Thursday, January 17

Headlines: ​ ● WH Denies Report on Trump Peace Plan ● Israeli Right Wing Rejects Reported Trump Plan ● PA: Plan Not Based on 1967 Borders is ‘Destined to Fail’ ● Left: Open Up About Bombshell Judicial Scandal or Resign ● Poll: Rising, Jewish Home and Livni Miss Threshold ● Three Labor MKs Quit Amid Anger at Gabbay ● Changes Expected in Palestinian Representation ● Ultra-Orthodox Parties Agree to Stay United for Election

Commentary: ● Al Monitor: “New IDF Chief Faces Many Challenges” − By Ben Caspit, Senior Columnist ● Al Monitor: “Netanyahu’s Lackeys Twist IDF History for Political Gain” − By Shlomi Eldar, Senior Columnist

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Aaron Zucker, Associate Editor ​ ​

News Excerpts ​ January 17, 2019

Times of WH Denies Report on Trump Peace Plan The Trump administration on Wednesday dismissed an Israeli TV report that said its forthcoming peace plan would offer a state in most of the and parts of East . Channel 13 reported that a US official had said the proposal would provide for Jerusalem to be divided, with Israel maintaining sovereignty in West Jerusalem, parts of , the Old City and “holy basin.” The report said the proposal would offer a Palestinian state in 85-90 percent of the West Bank, with settlement blocs annexed by Israel in land swaps.

Times of Israel Israeli Right Wing Rejects Reported Trump Plan Right wing politicians protested the reported Trump plan Wednesday night, with the New Right party saying that Trump was a “true friend of Israel,” but “security and Israel’s well-being precede any other interest.” The statement said the New Right “will not sit in a government that will divide Jerusalem and establish a Palestinian state.” Beit El Mayor Shai Alon said there was “no chance whatsoever” Israel would hand over control or oversight of the to another entity.

Jerusalem Post PA: Plan Not Based on 1967 Borders is ‘Destined to Fail’ The Palestinian Authority said on Wednesday that "any peace plan that does not include an independent Palestinian state - with all of East Jerusalem as its capital - on the 1967 borders, is destined to fail." Nabil Abu Rudaineh, spokesman for the Palestinian Authority said any proposals pertaining to the political process should be based on international resolutions and the principle of the two-state solution.

Jerusalem Post Left: Open Up About Bombshell Judicial Scandal or Resign “Tell all or resign,” Labor MK demanded of Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked on Wednesday. Politicians and other leaders reacted swiftly to reports that police arrested Israel Bar Association president Efi Naveh, a magistrate’s court judge, and the wife of another magistrate’s court judge on suspicion of involvement in a scheme of sexual favors for judicial appointments. The Labor MK said, “the public deserves answers to a scandal that is on an unprecedented level” and that the justice minister “should tell the whole truth or resign – those are the only options.”

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Times of Israel Poll: Likud Rising, Jewish Home and Livni Miss Threshold Prime Minister ’s Likud would retain its status as the largest party, according to a television poll aired Wednesday, while the national-religious Jewish Home would crash out of the Knesset. According to the poll, Likud would win 32 seats, followed by ’s centrist party with 14 seats (up from 11). Former IDF chief of staff ’s new party would finish third with 13 seats. Gantz is seen as Netanyahu’s main challenger for the premiership.

Times of Israel Three Labor MKs Quit Amid Anger at Gabbay Three Labor lawmakers on Wednesday announced they would not seek reelection in the party’s primaries, amid growing opposition to Labor leader Avi Gabbay. Ayelet Nahmias-Verbin and Eitan Broshi announced they would split from Israel’s traditional center-left party on Wednesday. They were later joined by Hilik Bar, who said he would still campaign for the party ahead of the elections. Bar said he was not leaving political life, and would work towards a two-state peace solution with the Palestinians.

Al Monitor Changes Expected in Palestinian Knesset Representation Palestinian citizens of Israel are expected to send an entirely different set of politicians to the Knesset after the elections. Political observers estimate that at least two, and possibly three, Arab lists will be announced, including Arab Home, which claims that it will be the first Arab party to join an Israeli government. MK Ahmed Tibi, one of the more popular members of the , is reportedly holding serious negotiations to establish a separate party in collaboration with Nazareth Mayor Ali Salam.

Ha’aretz Ultra-Orthodox Parties Agree to Stay United for Election Israel’s two ultra-Orthodox parties, Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah, on Wednesday decided to maintain their partnership and run together on a joint slate as . The two ultra-Orthodox parties agreed to share power equally within the joint faction and agreed on the conditions of their alliance for the next two Knesset terms. Also this week, Jewish Home’s central committee will convene on Thursday to decide whether to cancel its primaries after its former leaders, Shaked and quit to form their New Right party.

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Al Monitor – January 16, 2019 New IDF Chief Faces Many Challenges By Ben Caspit, Senior Columnist

● There was a changing of the guard on Jan. 15 in the (IDF): Former Chief of General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces Maj. Gen. was replaced by Lt. Gen. . Kochavi, “the philosopher officer,” was nicknamed in his youth “Mel Gibson” by the paratroopers due to a striking resemblance to the actor. Now he has received the reins to the most powerful army in the Middle East and one of the strongest in the world. But together with that comes the responsibility for innumerable headaches, bubbling powder kegs and ticking bombs scattered over diverse fronts.

● An Israeli chief of staff does not receive even a hundred seconds of grace. Kochavi’s first test is already anticipated for Jan. 18 on the fences of the . Again, has not received Qatar's money in cash as the third installment of aid to Gaza; meanwhile, the level of violence continues to rise toward the possibility of a new explosion. The Gaza issue is not the most dangerous of the threats faced by Israel, but it is urgent at this stage because of the lack of any checks and balances vis-a-vis Hamas, which has its back to the wall. In fact, Hamas has shown in the past that when under pressure, it will react violently against Israel. In addition, Israel lacks a strategic goal regarding Gaza-Hamas that could be implemented by the political echelons — in other words, by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

● The 54-year-old Kochavi has been viewed as an Israeli prince almost from the first minute. His military career began in the paratrooper unit, where he blossomed until he received command over the paratrooper brigade in 2001. It was in this role that he left his strategic mark on the IDF’s battle methods; he succeeded in overtaking the Nablus refugee camps and the Casbah in the 2002 Operation Defensive Shield with almost no casualties. Those were the days of the bloody in which hundreds of Israeli citizens were slain by suicide bombers who flooded the streets and cities. Prime Minister commanded the IDF to re-conquer the West Bank cities and uproot terror. Many IDF higher-ups were concerned about entering the crowded refugee camps and threatening Casbahs that were overflowing with weapons, mantraps, suicide bombers and explosives.

● The assessment then was that the IDF would pay the price of dozens, if not hundreds, of fatal casualties and would be forced to kill thousands of Palestinians in order to complete the mission. But Kochavi, a young paratrooper brigade commander, was not deterred. He invented and developed a system through which his brigade took control over Nablus: infiltrating from the inside. Instead of advancing exposed through the narrow alleyways and Casbahs, the paratroopers infiltrated directly into structures and buildings in the heart of the city. From there, they continued to advance via the structures themselves: by breaking down walls to advance from house to house, without exposing themselves to dangers. The operation was successful beyond all expectations and was then carried out in other West Bank cities. The method

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developed by Kochavi is studied to this very day in military schools throughout the world. The US Army in Iraq and Afghanistan adopted it.

● But beyond questions of defense and security, which I will address shortly, Kochavi will also have to deal with his boss, Netanyahu. Netanyahu currently also serves as defense minister and is extremely busy conducting his own war for political survival. On the one hand, he will be less attentive to complex defense issues, but on the other hand, he will need as many military “victory photos” as possible to leverage before the upcoming elections on April 9.

● There are problems overseas as well: The two most important strategic partners of the Israeli chief of staff are the US chief of staff and the US secretary of defense, Joseph Dunford and James Mattis, who are leaving their posts. They will be replaced, of course, and Kochavi will have to connect to new people. But in this task, Kochavi enjoys a great advantage: He is viewed as “Mr. America” in the Israeli General Staff. Kochavi has a master’s degree in public administration from Harvard University (a joint program with the Wexner Foundation) and a second master’s degree in international relations from Johns Hopkins University. Kochavi’s English is excellent, and American history is one of his favorite subjects. He is well-versed in American politics, receives American publications regularly and was much involved through his career (especially in his last position of deputy chief of staff) in the IDF’s relations with the US Army. As opposed to his predecessor, Eizenkot (who did not especially like conversing with foreign generals), Kochavi feels at ease in such environments.

● Despite his basic qualifications and aptitude, the challenges that will face Lt. Gen. Kochavi will be complex. US behavior in the current era is chaotic and unpredictable, in spite of the relative intimacy that prevails between Netanyahu’s bureau and the White House. Israel’s security system vigilantly keeps close tabs on developments and takes nothing for granted. Israeli intelligence has already shifted resources, energy and much attention to the Iranian threat arena due to its concern that the Tehran regime may decide to enrich uranium again now that the United States has abandoned the nuclear deal. This concern was raised in an earlier article in Al-Monitor, and indeed there has been publicity recently that the Iranians have returned to limited enrichment. Kochavi will try to tighten intelligence cooperation with the United States, but that may not be easy.

● US Deputy Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette visited Israel Jan. 15 and made a startling statement. He noted that the United States evaluates foreign investment very, very closely, and that Israel should adopt a similar approach. If Israel won’t adopt such a defense policy, he hinted, its partners might be reluctant to share with it intelligence data. In other words, he threatened that if Israel continues to tighten relations with China and continues to allow China a spree of economic investments in Israel, then US intelligence-sharing with Israel will be at risk. Brouillette described China’s investments in Israel as “investments with malicious intent.” This Israeli dilemma — which was detailed in an article here last week — and the words of Brouillette clearly highlight the importance of the issue. And all these ticking issues will, beginning Tuesday morning, sit on Lt. Gen. Kochavi's table.

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● Kochavi won’t endanger the alliance with the United States and or the fruitful connections with US intelligence. This problem belongs more to Netanyahu, who has been advocating rapprochement with China, than to Kochavi. Still, it will be Kochavi who might be the one paying the price if it comes to that. Kochavi has been preparing all his life for the role of the IDF chief of staff. He was marked for the job when he was only a platoon commander of the paratroopers, an impressive junior officer who made a deep impression on his soldiers and commanders. Kochavi is a philosophy fan (with an undergraduate degree in philosophy from the Hebrew University) and an amateur painter; he lives in the Galilee and is a vegetarian. In fact, Kochavi is the first vegetarian chief of staff, but don’t underestimate him: When it comes to the battlefield, the Syrian-Lebanon front, the Iranian threat and the Gaza Strip — he does not act like one. As ​ Ariel Sharon used to say: In the Middle East, you are either a carnivore or you are on the plate.

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Al Monitor – January 16, 2019 Netanyahu’s Lackeys Twist IDF History for Political Gain By Shlomi Eldar, Senior Columnist

● Former military Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz fired the opening shot of his election campaign with a video that's making the rounds on social media and turning the tables on the right wing’s attacks. It features Likud ministers and as well as Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked of the New Right denigrating his views and his record. Their litany is drowned out by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s voice chanting “They are a-f-r-a-i-d,” the famous taunt he directed at the liberal media when he was drumming up voter support for his run in the 1999 elections. Gantz is now using Netanyahu’s catchy cadence to mock the right’s hysterical reaction to his rising star in Israeli politics. True, this is the nature of politics. Each party lauds its candidates and presents its rivals’ weaknesses and failures. In Gantz’ case, however, the right will stop at nothing, not even at distorting and rewriting history, to discredit him.

● His critics ramped up their attacks against Gantz on Jan. 14, when he came out of his house to greet members of Israel’s Druze protesting the controversial 2018 nationality law. The protesters, led by Brig. Gen. Amal Assad, argue that by granting the sole right to self-determination in Israel, the law discriminates against minorities. “I will do everything in my power to fix the nationality law,” Gantz said in his first public political statement. Referring to the fact that the Druze (unlike Israel’s Arab minority) serve in the military, Gantz added, “We have a deep and unbreakable connection, not only in battle, but also in life.”

● Minister of Public Security was first to attack, citing the October 2000 shooting death of an Israeli Druze soldier at Joseph’s Tomb in the West Bank. As the divisional commander, Erdan tweeted, Gantz was part of a group of officers “that turned its back on him and did not do everything in its power to save his life.” Former chief was right behind Erdan on Twitter. “The cloud of Madhat Yusuf, an IDF fighter from the Druze community who bled to death at Joseph’s Tomb, hangs over Gantz’ head,” he wrote. Dichter neglected to mention that he himself, as head of the Shin Bet at the time, was in charge of contacts with Palestinian security head Jibril Rajoub, who had promised to evacuate the Israeli soldier to safety. The attacks on Gantz were well orchestrated. Those who were sent out to the microphones to defend Netanyahu against suspicions of bribery are now reciting new talking points prepared by the Likud. According to Yediot Ahronoth, Likud associates had prepared a “Gantz file” to slander him and tarnish his image.

● Yusuf's death is one of three dramatic events that ignited the second Palestinian uprising against Israel in the fall of 2000. On Sept. 30, 2000, Palestinian boy Muhammad Al-Durrah was shot to death at Israel’s Netzarim Junction in the Gaza Strip. The shooting was caught on camera by a French television crew, fueling outraged protests in the West Bank. The following day, thousands of Palestinians stormed Joseph’s Tomb near the West Bank town of Nablus,

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where a small Israeli military contingent was deployed to protect Jewish worshippers. Yusuf was wounded by Palestinian sniper fire, leaving Prime Minister and Defense Minister and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. two options. One was to send an armed military force into the compound, which was surrounded by thousands of angry Palestinians, and risk dozens if not hundreds of deaths. The other was to await the Palestinian evacuation force promised by Rajoub. The decision to wait for Rajoub was made by the top echelons based on information provided by Dichter himself as head of the Shin Bet.

● The Palestinian rescuers were late in coming, and Yusuf died of his wounds. According to the logic of military hierarchy, Dichter’s responsibility for Yusuf’s death is greater than Gantz’. As head of the country’s security agency, he should have known that Rajoub would not risk sending his men into the maelstrom and being labeled an Israeli collaborator. Dichter had no qualms about taking personal credit for another dramatic event. On Jan. 13, he went on Twitter to mark the 23rd anniversary of the assassination of Yahya Ayash, a notorious Palestinian bomb maker known as “the engineer” who was killed in a sophisticated Shin Bet operation with a booby-trapped cellphone. “23 years ago we got rid of him; I sent him a cellphone at a blast of a price,” Dichter tweeted. In fact, it was Shin Bet chief Carmi Gilon who made the decision to take out Ayash in January 1996 and was responsible for its execution. Dichter served at the time as the head of the Shin Bet’s southern district. The assassination set off a series of bomb attacks in Israel that cost acting Prime Minister the elections and handed them to Netanyahu, whom Dichter now seeks to please.

● It appears that when generals go at each other, facts and decision-making can be shaped in accordance with politics. Maj. Gen. (res.) , who served as housing minister in the Netanyahu government before crossing the lines recently from to the Likud, is trying to engineer for himself a slot high on the Likud list by adopting Netanyahu’s talking points, which include slinging mud at Gantz. “I think that [Gantz] knows why he is silent. I also know why he is silent, and the thousands of officers who served under him know why he is silent,” Galant said at a Jan. 5 event in the town of Nes Ziona. The next day, he criticized Gantz’ performance during Operation Protective Edge, Israel’s summer 2014 war with Gaza. “He achieved a draw against a second-rate team called Hamas,” Galant snidely opined. Galant got his facts mixed up. While Gantz was indeed the head of the Israel Defense Forces during the war, he was under the command of Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and Netanyahu, who boasted of monitoring the situation closely from the underground war room in . Netanyahu made the decision to avoid unseating the Hamas regime for fear of throwing the Strip into prolonged chaos, and he was the one who forced the IDF into a 50-day war that only ended with an Egyptian-mediated cease-fire.

● Now Netanyahu’s emissaries and servants — hawks Galant and Dichter, along with Erdan, Regev, Levin and others — are willing to do anything to preserve Netanyahu’s rule and ensure a spot for themselves at his side, even at the cost of defiling the IDF, the most sacred institution of Israeli society. In so doing, they cast serious doubt on Israel’s first Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion’s immortal injunction: “It is not enough for a commander to know his job. … If the

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commanders instill trust, dedication and love in their soldiers, every Jewish mother can be assured that she has placed the fate of her sons in the hands of commanders worthy of her trust.”

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