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Israel's Relations with Arab Countries: the Unfulfilled Potential

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Israel's Relations with Arab Countries: the Unfulfilled Potential Israel’s Relations with Arab Countries: The Unfulfilled Potential Editors: Dr. Roee Kibrik, Dr. Nimrod Goren, Merav Kahana-Dagan January 2021 Israel’s Relations with Arab Countries: The Unfulfilled Potential Edited by Dr. Roee Kibrik, Dr. Nimrod Goren, Merav Kahana-Dagan ________________________________________ Copyright © 2021 by Mitvim - The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Mitvim Institute. Commercial use of this publication is not permitted without written consent by the publishers. All rights reserved. Translation from Hebrew: Ruth Sinai Graphic design: Hila Mayzels ISBN: 978-965-7617-07-6 Table of Contents Introduction 4 Dr. Roee Kibrik, Dr. Nimrod Goren, Merav Kahana-Dagan Foreword 6 Israel in the Middle East: From Covert to Overt Relations Prof. Elie Podeh Netanyahu’s Attempt to Delink Israel-Arab Relations from the Palestinian Issue 14 Dr. Yuval Benziman Israel-Jordan Cooperation: A Potential That Can Still Be Fulfilled 26 Yitzhak Gal Israel and Egypt: Strategic Partnership, Civil Remoteness? 45 Amb. (ret.) Dr. Haim Koren Israel and Saudi Arabia: On the Way to Normalization? 57 Dr. Michal Yaari Israel and the United Arab Emirates: The Axis of Precedents 72 Dr. Moran Zaga Israel and Qatar: Relations Nurtured by the Palestinian Issue 89 Dr. Michal Yaari Israel and Morocco: Cooperation Rooted in Heritage 103 Einat Levi Israel and Iraq: Taking the Civilian Path to Improve Relations 127 Dr. Ronen Zeidel Afterword: Israel’s Relations with the Arab World - 141 The Palestinian Issue Is the Gateway to the Middle East Dr. Moran Zaga and Dr. Roee Kibrik About the Authors 155 4 | Israel’s Relations with Arab Countries: The Unfulfilled Potential Introduction “We extend our hand to all neighboring states and their peoples in an offer of peace and good neighborliness, and appeal to them to establish bonds of cooperation and mutual help with the sovereign Jewish people settled in its own land. The State of Israel is prepared to do its share in a common effort for the advancement of the entire Middle East.” (The Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel, May 15, 1948) Since declaring independence, Israel’s relations with the states of the Middle East have undergone numerous upheavals. Over the years, relations moved across a spectrum from bitter, bloody wars to clandestine cooperation. The peace agreement with Egypt expanded that range of relations, creating an opening for formal ties and official economic and civilian cooperation. Progress in negotiations with the Palestinians in the 1990s led to the signing of a peace agreement with Jordan, and to a brief flourishing of Israel’s relations with other Arab states. However, despite Israel’s peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan, the establishment of the Palestinian Authority (PA) within the framework of the Oslo Accords, and the Arab Peace Initiative, Israel was unable to establish “good neighborliness” with the Arab world and to formalize cooperation and mutual assistance for the benefit of the Middle East as a whole. Far-reaching changes have taken place in the region over the past decade. The popular uprisings across the Middle East undermined stability, led to changes in regimes or rulers, and made it clear to those who remained in power that they must proceed with caution, taking into consideration the demands of their people. What is more, Iran’s actions in the region and its bid to obtain nuclear weapons, positioned it as a shared threat to Sunni Arab states and to Israel. Other shared threats included extremist Muslim terrorist activity and Daesh. The involvement of the global powers in the Middle East also underwent change, with the US signaling its way out of the region and Russia and China increasing their involvement. Israel and the Arab states that had relied to a large extent on the US, gradually realized that they were wrong to depend solely on US backing and its concern for the interests of its allies in the Middle East. Against the backdrop of these broad geopolitical changes, Israeli policy and public discourse shifted, as well. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his governments, which avoided progress in the peace process with the Palestinians, began arguing that a breakthrough toward normalization with Arab states could be achieved even without the advancement of Israeli-Palestinian peace. As proof, the Israeli leadership claimed that the extent of Israel’s cooperation with Arab states in the region was unprecedented. This claim, backed by growing public visibility of Israel-Arab interactions, became a significant domestic political tool. The Mitvim Institute, as a think tank focusing on Israel’s regional foreign policy (including on Israel’s regional belonging in the Middle East), deemed it important to examine this claim in depth. We therefore embarked on a project that examined bilateral ties between Israel and seven key Arab states: Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Morocco and Iraq. The researchers who took part in this project mapped out the potential of the cooperation with each state based on shared interests, challenges and opportunities, and on Israel’s abilities, strengths and needs vis-à-vis each of these states. They described the existing diplomatic, security, economic and civilian cooperation, and 5 | Israel’s Relations with Arab Countries: The Unfulfilled Potential assessed the impact that the Israeli-Palestinian issue has on bilateral ties. The research papers they authored were based on open source information, academic and practical acquaintance with the countries at stake, and interviews conducted with relevant policy stakeholders. The studies found that despite rosy descriptions of flourishing cooperation between Israel and Arab states in the Middle East, and notwithstanding certain growing cooperation’s (most of them in the field of security and hidden from the public eye), the diplomatic, economic, societal, civilian and cultural opportunities for cooperation are immense and significantly greater than the current level of relations. There is wide-ranging, unfulfilled potential in Israel’s relations with Arab states, and this is more evident now than it was in the past. The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and absence of significant progress in resolving it, constitute the main obstacle, as of now, to fulfilling this potential. The normalization agreements signed in September 2020 between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain challenge the paradigm that normalization is contingent on significant progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Nevertheless, they did link normalization to the suspension of Israeli annexation intentions in the West Bank, reaffirming that regional cooperation is indivisible from the Palestinian issue. Likewise, as Israel and Morocco moved to re-establish diplomatic ties in December 2020, it was important to King Mohammed VI to emphasize that Morocco’s stance towards the Palestinian issue remains unchanged, in support of the two-state solution. The studies in this publication were written prior to the decisions by the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco to normalize relations with Israel. In formulating its policies and actions in the region, Israel should learn the lessons of the past. It must take into consideration current realities and limitations, existing interests and processes. Just as important, it should also consider prospects for peace and cooperation, which can transform its regional relations and fulfill their potential. We hope this publication helps those interested in understanding the current complex relations between Israel and key Arab states as well as the opportunities for improving them. We hope the knowledge and recommendations included in this publication will support efforts to expand cooperation and promote normal relations between Israel and the Arab world. As the studies in this publication indicate, the potential for regional cooperation is great but its realization depends on progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. This publication was made possible by the contributions and cooperation of many. Our thanks go, first and foremost, to the researchers who took part: Dr. Yuval Benziman, Yitzhak Gal, Amb. (ret.) Dr. Haim Koren, Einat Levi, Prof. Elie Podeh, Dr. Michal Yaari, Dr. Moran Zaga and Dr. Ronen Zeidel. We would like to thank all those who participated in the policy workshops and public events we conducted throughout the project, during which we presented the research findings and discussed their significance. We would like to thank Jonathan Ghariani, who patiently and diligently compiled a database of regional cooperation between Israel and Arab states. We are also grateful to Dr. Eyal Bressler and Co. for the wonderful hosting of the project’s task team meetings, to Ruth Sinai for the translation of the project products into English, and to the Ploughshares Fund and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung for their partnership and support. Dr. Roee Kibrik, Dr. Nimrod Goren, Merav Kahana-Dagan Jerusalem, January 2021 6 | Israel’s Relations with Arab Countries: The Unfulfilled Potential Foreword Israel in the Middle East: From Covert to Overt Relations1 Prof. Elie Podeh A significant change is taking place in Israel’s relations with its Middle Eastern environs in recent years. The Second Lebanon War (summer 2006), the military operations in Gaza (“Cast Lead”, winter 2008-09; “Pillar of Defense”, November 2012; and “Protective Edge”, summer 2014), as well
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