Israel and the News Update

Tuesday, June 30

Headlines: ● Say Ready for Direct Talks with Israel ● Gantz: Date for West Bank Annexation 'Not Set in Stone' ● Unity Government Struggling to Survive, Insiders Say ● Annexation: Leading Republican Lawmakers Remain Silent ● UN: Annexation Plan is Illegal, Whether Limited or Unlimited ● Public Gatherings Capped Amid Fears of Second Wave ● Danon to UNSC: Extend the Iran Arms Embargo ● Israel Explores for Gas Near Disputed Waters with Lebanon

Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “With an Eye to November 3” − By Shimrit Meir

● Yedioth Ahronoth: “The Way to Destroy the Zionist Vision” − By Ben-Dror Yemini

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts June 30, 2020 Times of Israel Palestinians Say Ready for Direct Talks with Israel The Palestinians are prepared to renew long-stalled peace talks with Israel and to agree to "minor" territorial concessions. A Palestinian Authority text sent to the international peacemaking Quartet that says the Palestinians are "ready to resume direct bilateral negotiations where they stopped," in 2014. The PA said the counterproposal would be withdrawn if Israel went ahead with annexation "of any part of the Palestinian territory". "We are ready to have our state with a limited number of weapons and a powerful police force to uphold law and order," it said, adding that it would accept an international force such as NATO, mandated by the UN, to monitor compliance with any eventual peace treaty. The text also proposes "minor border changes that will have been mutually agreed, based on the borders of June 4, 1967", when Israeli forces captured the West Bank. See also ‘‘Palestinian Leaders Struggle to Mobilize Street Against Annexation Plans’’ (Times of Israel)

I24 News Gantz: Date for West Bank Annexation 'Not Set in Stone' Alternate Prime Minister and Defense Minister said that the July 1 date slated for Israel’s West Bank annexation bid is “not set in stone.” The remark was made during a meeting with a US delegation team, including Ambassador to Israel David Friedman and US special envoy Avi Berkowitz, who arrived in Israel last week for talks ahead of July 1, Hebrew-language outlet N12 reported. “Israeli citizens are concerned over the coronavirus and expect a thorough and immediate management of the situation,” Gantz stipulated, cited by N12. “Before promoting diplomatic moves, we need to aid Israeli citizens to succeed in returning to work and respectfully earn a living again,” he added. See also ‘‘After Gantz Pours Cold Water on Annexation, Netanyahu Says Issue Not up to Him’’ (Ha’aretz)

Israel Hayom Unity Government Struggling to Survive, Insiders Say With only a few weeks under its belt, Israel's hard-earned national unity government is struggling to survive, political insiders told Israel Hayom, citing the growing distrust between leading parties and Blue and White. As tensions between Prime Minister and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz grow, every incident – big or small – seems to fray the coalition further. Under Israeli law, if the government is unable to pass the annual budget within 100 days of its formation the must dissolve, triggering elections. A Likud official warned Sunday that "the way they [Blue and White] are conducting themselves will make it very difficult for this government to carry on. Will the government fall apart? Probably not in the coming weeks, but I'm not sure it will make it through the winter session."

2 Times of Israel Annexation: Leading Republican Lawmakers Remain Silent As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moves ahead with plans to begin annexing parts of the West Bank, possibly as soon as Wednesday, several leading GOP lawmakers are staying silent on the move that Democrats have rallied against and some Republicans have embraced. While the Democratic Party has been increasingly unified in recent weeks in voicing opposition to the move, GOP lawmakers have taken a different approach: Either they have come out in favor of annexation— or have stayed silent on it. a number of Republican leaders and high-profile GOP senators have not yet taken a public stance. The offices of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, Utah Senator Mitt Romney and Idaho Senator James Risch, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, all declined requests from The Times of Israel to weigh in on Netanyahu’s annexation plans. See also ‘‘AIPAC Opposes a Letter Against Annexation Spearheaded by AOC’’ ( Post)

Jerusalem Post UN: Annexation Plan is Illegal, Whether Limited or Unlimited Any Israeli annexation plan is illegal irrespective of whether it includes all or only some of the settlements, UNHCHR Michele Bachelet clarified. “Annexation is illegal. Period,” Bachelet said. She spoke out amid reports that Israel weighed assuaging international and Palestinian objections to annexation by moving forward with a partial plan. This would likely include the application of sovereignty over areas of high settler-population density, known as the blocs, rather than advancing an initiative that would annex the entire 30% of the West Bank. MK and former justice minister Ayelet Shaked told Army Radio earlier that the Jordan Valley would be excluded from Israel’s annexation plans. Netanyahu “has given up on the Jordan Valley” because of the opposition from the Arab world, she said. The Foreign Ministry accused Bachelet yet once again of politicizing her office to attack Israel. See also ‘‘Netanyahu Said to Hint Annexation Won’t Begin July 1, as He’d Previously Pledged’’ (Times of Israel)

Ha’aretz Public Gatherings Capped Amid Fears of Second Wave Israel and the West Bank are dealing with a renewed outbreak of the coronavirus, leading to proposals and measures intended to curb its spread and mitigate the economic ramifications of the crisis by both the Israeli and the Palestinian authorities. 24,276 people in Israel have so far tested positive for the coronavirus; 319 people have died. In the West Bank and East Jerusalem, 2,025 people tested positive; eight people have died. In the Gaza Strip, 72 people were diagnosed, and one person has died. The Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee has backtracked on its plan to promote a temporary bill allowing digital tracking of coronavirus patients, after opposition lawmakers blocked the initiative. According to sources familiar with the details, the opposition’s initiative was led by Eli Avidar of . See also ‘‘Digging into Data: Is Israel Back to Square One with Coronavirus’’ (I24 News)

3 Jerusalem Post Danon to UNSC: Extend the Iran Arms Embargo Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon warned the United Nations’ Security Council that once the arms embargo on Iran would be lifted, the Islamic Republic could continue importing or exporting a variety of weapon systems, including tanks, artillery systems, warships, submarines, aircraft, missiles and other arms. Special representative Brian Hook is expected to meet Prime Minister Netanyahu, as the US and Israel are working closely to extend the arms embargo. The embargo is set to expire on October 18, and the US and Israel are working closely to extend it. Danon urged the Security Council in his statement “to act swiftly and with great resolve to respond to the Iranian regime’s violations, by using all means necessary to extend the arms embargo on Iran beyond the current October deadline.” He highlighted Iran’s violations, including transfers of “illicit arms to its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and recently even to Libya.” This weaponry, which is “freely transported throughout the Middle East and used by armed militias and terrorist groups, poses a strategic threat not only to Israel, but to the entire region,” his statement reads. See also ‘‘Pompeo to Address U.N. Security Council on Iran Arms Embargo’’ (Reuters)

Jerusalem Post Israel Explores for Gas Near Disputed Waters with Lebanon Lebanese President Michel Aoun warned that Israel's intent to begin explorations for natural gas and oil in waters known as Block 72 is "extremely dangerous and will complicate the situation further," according to Lebanon's National News Agency. Block 72 is located near Lebanon's Block 9 gas fields, where Lebanon plans to begin explorations for natural gas and oil within the next few months. Block 72 and Block 9 are located along the border of disputed waters between Lebanon and Israel. Last Tuesday, Israel's Energy Minister approved the beginning of the competitive process for granting a natural gas and oil exploration license for Block 72. Preliminary investigations in the area have found potential gas fields similar geologically to other fields in the area, such as the Tamar field. The competitive process will continue from June until September. The license will require the selected company to carry out all necessary operations and surveys in order to begin drilling. Aoun called on Lebanon's Supreme Defense Council to convene to discuss the Israeli announcement, according to the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Manar news.

4 Yedioth Ahronoth – June 30, 2020 With an Eye to November 3 By Shimrit Meir ● Despite all of the attendant fear mongering about its repercussions, the annexation story, from the outset, was and has remained mainly about what the are ultimately going to decide to do. The Arabs, who are weak and divided, are supporting actors in this Israeli- American play. For anyone looking at the situation through the lenses of seizing opportunities, there has never been a better opportunity than the one currently at hand: the Palestinians have barely been able to scrape together even a token protest; King Abdullah might be working behind the scenes, but the Jordanian street is somnolent; and and Saudi Arabia are preoccupied with their own issues. Furthermore, after ten years of regional upheaval, along came the coronavirus, which has left some countries preoccupied and others paralyzed, while overall it has made the Middle East far more dependent on the world than ever before. In other, clearer words: if Netanyahu and Gantz were to present to Jared Kushner a map that they both agreed on, it seems highly likely that the areas demarcated by the map would be annexed to Israel with the blessing of the president of the United States. ● But this is where a substantive issue comes into play, an issue that Blue and White’s campaign consultants tried to blur as they dragged the party to the right during three successive election campaigns: the real ideological differences between Netanyahu and Gantz. From Netanyahu’s vantage point, at issue is a game about interests and capitalizing on opportunities: Trump is still in office, the Arabs are weak—now is the time to take. Gantz is a representative of the more traditional and institutional attitude. He believes that the farthest to the right that should be gone in all that pertains to the territories is to preserve the status quo in its current form. No one should envy Gantz, who was accustomed throughout his entire life to being the national darling, a handsome paratrooper and then a blue-eyed poster boy, the great white hope of his own reference group. ● Nowadays Gantz can’t walk into a restaurant in Tel Aviv without being booed. I couldn’t say whether his backaches are connected to his emotional distress, but if he capitulates on annexation, they are liable to grow worse. He won’t have an ideological home or community to go home to if he does. The story, therefore—with all due respect to the deliberately vague threats that have been made by King Abdullah of Jordan and Abu Mazen’s fuzziness—is on the axis between Israel and Washington. There is just one date in everyone’s diary: November 3, the date of the presidential elections in the United States. Like it or not, the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, has a 12-point lead in a Fox News poll and a 14 point lead in a New York Times poll. ● In a Bibi-ist benefit-cost ratio calculation, the following question needs to be asked: is it worth annexing a small percentage of the West Bank in September-October only to begin a relationship on the wrong foot with a president who, along with his entire party, is deeply opposed to annexation? Some of the Democrats have been polite about it, at the request of AIPAC, but others have been less polite, such as the party’s young “like” 5 machine, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. OAC said yesterday that annexation would turn Israel into an apartheid state and that doing so was liable to result in making continued aid to Israel, which stands at 3.8 billion dollars annually, conditional. She is the future. ● The online stars and the vote magnets of today are the US administration of tomorrow. The annexation map that is currently being discussed seeks to place under Israeli sovereignty all of the settlements as well as the areas surrounding Beit El and Shilo, the names of two places that are supposed to remind President Trump’s evangelical supporters of church names and fill their hearts with warmth and solidarity. Tensions have remained high within the American team between Kushner, who dispatched his aide, Avi Berkowitz, to the region, and who has insisted that annexation be carried out only in a broader context of laying the groundwork for peace—whatever that means; and US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, who sometimes gives the impression of not having abandoned his previous position as the president of the American Friends of Bet El Yeshiva Center. The path to historic policy decisions sometimes is fraught with difficulties. There is no reason to get worked up over that, but the question remains whether annexation at the current juncture in time is something that is worth making any effort to achieve.

6 Yedioth Ahronoth – June 30, 2020 The Way to Destroy the Zionist Vision By Ben-Dror Yemini ● History of the past few decades proves that the right wing tended to be more correct in all that pertains to predictions and prophecies. The right wing argued in the days before the Oslo Accords were signed that the outcome would be a lot more terrorism. They were right. The right wing contended that the Palestinian leadership wanted the “right of return” more than it wanted a state. They were right. The right wing warned that disengagement would lead to Katyusha rockets on Ashkelon. They were wrong. The rockets now have a much longer range than even Tel Aviv. The right wing argued that fears of “international isolation” were misguided. They were right. The right wing contended that no earthquake would follow [American] recognition of the Golan or of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Once again, they were right. ● All of which means that the Zionist camp that is opposed to annexation needs to change its operating disc. Trying to frighten doesn’t work. If, God forbid, annexation is implementation, it could very well be that relations with Europe will be impaired. It could very well be that sanctions will be imposed, even if moderate. It could very well be that the crisis with the American Jewish community and the Democratic Party will worsen. It could very well be that relations with the anti-Iran Arab coalition will be badly hurt. It could be that there will be an Intifada. But it could also very well be that none of that is going to happen. ● Currently all that can be said, and all that should be said, is that the mere fact that the right wing was right in the past does not mean that it is right this time as well. But the right wing has entered this public debate while holding good cards. They must not be ignored. So, what should we do? In order to present the folly of annexation, we must take note of the right wing’s positions. A debate has been raging within the right wing in the last few weeks between the proponents and the opponents of annexation. Yesha Council Chairman David Elhayani is opposed to annexation because it means that farther down the line a Palestinian state will be established on 70% of the territory of Judea and Samaria. In contrast, supporters of annexation think that we should take what we’re given. But everyone is united on one thing: they are opposed to the Trump plan. In fact, up until this moment, there probably hasn’t been a single high-ranking right-wing official who has expressed support for the Trump plan in all its components. They have become the mirror image of the Palestinians. It doesn’t matter what the details of the plan are— they always say no. ● The significance is that even on the assumption that none of the doomsday scenarios ultimately materialize—annexation is big trouble on the most important level of all: Israel’s national interest and the Zionist vision. That is because annexation, under today’s circumstances, is a step on the way to enacting the right wing’s old vision in all that pertains to the greater Land of Israel. That, of course, is an illusion. The real significance is that it means endorsing a solution that produces a single large state. That state isn’t going to be a bi-national state. It can be one of two things: either an apartheid 7 state or a large Arab state. That is the most important point. Because even if the EU gives its blessing, and even if Egypt and Jordan send flowers—annexation is bad for Israel because it is part of the creeping disaster of destroying the Zionist vision. That is neither Netanyahu nor Trump nor Elhayani’s intention, and neither is it the intention of all the other annexation supporters, but that is what the result is going to be. ● That is not to say that Israel needs to return the 1967 borders. After all, even in the left wing’s peace initiatives, from Barak’s proposal at Camp David to the Clinton plan to the Geneva initiative, to Olmert’s proposal and to the proposals of John Kerry and Barack Obama—the settlement blocs were to remain under Israeli control, some a little more and some a little less. But there is a huge difference between annexation in the framework of an arrangement or an agreement, and annexation in order to achieve the vision of greater Palestine, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River. ● And another thing: opposition to annexation should not be part of the campaign to “end the occupation” because at present, the meaning of “ending the occupation” is the establishment of a Palestinian entity that will not become Singapore, just as Gaza failed to become Singapore, but an entity that will very quickly come under the control of Hamas or under Iranian influence. So, there is no possibility of peace because the Palestinians are opposed to the Trump plan, just as they were opposed to the much more generous proposals in the last few decades. There is no need for annexation because annexation will achieve the anti-Zionist vision of a single large state.

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