Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies

6 JCSS Hosts Irish Foreign Minister Brian Cowen

Foreign Minister In his first foreign visit since Ireland assumed the presidency of the Silvan Shalom at a Bronfman European Union, Irish Foreign Minister Brian Cowen delivered a Program speech at the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies on January 15, 2004. workshop Cowen expressed hope that Ireland’s recent experience in peacemaking might benefit the search for peace in the Middle East, although he cautioned against drawing direct parallels. 9 Stressing the affinity between Ireland and Israel, Cowen said that criticism of Israeli policy was rooted in a belief that it would not lead to lasting peace: “Honesty is a requirement of any worthwhile friendship,” he stated. He called for “mutual respect and honest intent” in Former Prime Minister Ehud resolving differences. Cowen also Barak speaking on civil- underscored European commitment to military relations the area, noting both strong bilateral ties and a multilateral relationship within the 10 EU EuroMed arrangement. Addressing TAU President concerns on European views on Israel, Itamar Rabinovich he replied, “If Europe says something with GSS Head that Israel does not like, it does so to a Avi Dichter at considerable extent out of concern for Yariv memorial Israel, not out of hostility.” conference Cowen referred to a strong Israel-Ireland link, noting that Israel’s sixth president, JCSS Head Dr. Shai Feldman (left) with Patrick 13 Chaim Herzog, was born in Belfast and Hennessy, Irish Ambassador to Israel (center) grew up in Dublin, where his father was and Irish Foreign Minister Brian Cowen Chief Rabbi of Ireland. He also remarked that both countries benefit from the support of strong diaspora communities.

In the wake of his discussions with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom earlier in the day, he signaled that the European Union might revise its policy regarding the roadmap: “It may be that the initial steps demanded in the Senator Ron Wyden at Forum America roadmap are too steep to be taken in one go. If so, we must endeavor to reach agreement on a package of small but concrete and visible steps, which can be No. 29 February 2004 implemented at once and in parallel.” “THIRTY YEARS AFTER”

JCSS Conference Marking 30 Years to the Yom Kippur War

In30 October 2003, JCSS held a conference marking the thirtieth anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, “Thirty Years since the Yom Kippur War: Challenges and Efforts toward Answers.” The conference focused on the Yom Kippur War as a watershed in Israeli history, examining changes to the country’s institutions in the Brig. Gen. Aryeh Shalev speaking at the conference’s opening panel. Seated, l-r: JCSS aftermath of the war and the challenges Deputy Head Dr. Ephraim Kam, Dr. Uri Bar-Yosef, Maj. Gen. Shlomo Gazit, and Brig. that confront Israel today. Gen. Shlomo Brom

Opening the conference, JCSS Head Dr. Shai Feldman noted three Intelligence, described the strategic he argued, the IDF’s force structure has significant changes in Israel in the surprise Israel suffered with the outbreak not changed to fit new realities. Despite thirty years since the war. There have of the war. The difficulties in analyzing its overwhelming superiority, the IDF is been important developments in conflicting reports regarding Egyptian and unable to project force in a way that thinking on deterrence, there is a Syrian intentions is of critical importance advances the state’s political objectives. better understanding of the strategic to understanding the source of the surprise. JCSS Deputy Head Dr. Ephraim Kam environment in which Israel operates, JCSS Research Fellow Maj. Gen. (ret.) closed the panel with a presentation on and the discourse on security matters Shlomo Gazit, who was appointed Head predicting surprise attacks. Although Israel is now much wider than before the of Military Intelligence following the war, has not experienced a surprise attack since war shocked the country. However, described some of the measures he 1973, there is no reason to assume that it he cautioned, much remains the instituted to prevent similar instances of could not happen again. However, he same. Israel is still at war with Syria, surprise attack, including the establish- argued, with better analysis, better and many of the lessons learned from ment of the “Devil’s Advocate” function organization, and encouragement of 1973 have yet to be implemented. in military intelligence analysis. Yet, he thinking that challenges the “common Despite calls for “plurality” of suggested, until there is an independent wisdom,” it is possible to reduce the analysis, the IDF’s intelligence branch body to produce national intelligence likelihood of strategic surprise. is still the dominant institution. There assessments, such as the National Security is no long-range national defense Council, Israel will find it difficult to “think The second panel was built around planning, and political leaders are out of the box” and prevent further a regional outlook. Ehud Ya’ari, Arab unwilling to set clear policy goals to surprises. Dr. Uri Bar-Yosef, of the affairs commentator for Channel 2 News, guide IDF operational programs. Department of International Relations at described 1973 as the last comprehensive Haifa University, commented on some Arab-Israel war. Since then, not with- The first panel discussion looked at steps that Israel has yet to take following standing their rhetoric, the Arab states intelligence aspects of the war from an the 1973 war. For example, there is no have largely withdrawn from regional Israeli perspective. JCSS Research Fellow official history of the Yom Kippur War, and conflict and have similarly disengaged Brig. Gen. (ret.) Aryeh Shalev, who in 1973 thus no accepted understanding of the from the Palestinian struggle. was Head of Research in IDF Military nature of the intelligence failure. Further, Paradoxically, Israel’s most recent

2 JCSS Bulletin opponents, the Palestinians and Lebanon, dealing with dead enemy soldiers. The lack University, discussed the economic were historically deemed its weakest of literature from the war, he noted, was a challenges facing Israel thirty years after enemies. Dr. Mark Heller, JCSS Principal result of the inability to ask the kind of the Yom Kippur War. Sustainable Research Associate, considered the 1973 questions necessary to write meaningfully economic development, he argued, will war from the perspective of the PLO. He about it. It was a war whose meaning Israel only come by synthesizing the suggested that in the immediate aftermath remains unable to internalize and technological skills and talents of the of the war, there was a missed window of understand fully. young generation with the collective opportunity for negotiations between values that underpinned Israeli society Israel and the PLO. JCSS Research The fourth panel centered on the until 1973 and were seemingly rejected Associate Prof. Abraham Ben-Zvi search for responses to current challenges. after the war. discussed the Yom Kippur War in the Dr. Ariel Levite of the Israeli Atomic Energy context of US-Israel relations, and argued Agency discussed the changes in Israel’s The conference closed with a lecture that 1973 represents a significant starting strategic environment from facing the by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Uri Saguy, former Head point for the current dynamics of US combined armies of the Arab world to the of Military Intelligence. He suggested that involvement in peace efforts in the region. asymmetric challenge of terrorist Israel has not yet learned the critical organizations. Maj. Gen. Giora Eiland, lessons of the Yom Kippur War. The The third panel featured three Head of the IDF General Staff Plans and arrogance that characterized the period speakers who addressed the impact of the Policy Directorate, depicted the optimal before the war is still evident in military Yom Kippur War on Israeli society. Prof. IDF force structure to meet the challenges and political thinking. Further, proactive Oz Almog of the Jezreel Valley Academic of changing patterns of military conflict. policymaking and long term planning College discussed the shift in Israeli society This requires adequate responses to remain as deficient as they were in 1973. from one based on common ideology to conventional warfare, to low-intensity and At the same time, positive developments greater pluralism and individualism. This guerilla warfare, and to attacks on civilian have appeared in the Middle East in the process, he argued, was not a result of the populations. Prof. Ze’ev Tzahor, President past thirty years: all players have agreed of Sapir College, also citing that use of force is unlikely to bring a 1973 as end of the founding sustainable result; they have concluded era, examined the impact of that arguments based on historical justice this transition on the collective are of purely symbolic value; and there is values that the founders a consensus that agreements will only be represented. The final speaker, reached by dialogue. Nonetheless, the Prof. Avishai Braverman, existential threat to Israel is paradoxically President of Ben-Gurion greater now than ever before.

Maj. Gen. Giora Eiland (right) with television commentator Shlomo Ganor war, but was strengthened and accelerated by it. Dr. Tamar Hermann of Tel Aviv University’s Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research described 1973 as the point at which protest became an accepted part of Israeli political culture. With the end of the “founders’ generation,” it grew increasingly permissible to question their values, particularly the role of the IDF at the center of society. The final speaker, poet Haim Be’er, described his personal role in the 1973 war as part of Conference organizer Dr. Anat Kurz introducing the second panel. Seated, l-r: Dr. Mark the Military Rabbinate unit responsible for Heller, Prof. Abraham Ben-Zvi, and Ehud Ya’ari

February 2004 3 AN INITIAL ASSESSMENT

JCSS Scholars Explore the Implications of the War

“The fall of Saddam’s regime and Iraq’s strategic decline have weakened the radical countries in the Middle East and are likely to buttress the region’s moderate states.”

In an important publication first United States. The book’s chapters the campaign against international published four months after the official present concise and penetrating terrorism, and the war's impact on the end of the 2003 Iraq War, the Jaffee analyses of the campaign, and explore global oil market are assessed. Also Center for Strategic Studies research the major implications of the war and included is an analysis of the military staff examines the critical questions their strategic, political, military, and lessons of the war, which focuses on raised by the war. Is United States economic contexts. The book the dramatic military operation in light unilateralism successful foreign includes both a chronology of the of the Revolution in Military Affairs. policy? Did the 2003 Iraq War international inspection regime in Iraq The final chapter of this section contribute to the war on terror? What 1991-2003 and the full text of the US reviews the press coverage of the war, will arms control look like in the National Security Strategy, which its strategic connection with emerging strategic environment? Can constituted the basis of the Bush policymaking, and the Pentagon's states be democratized if their regimes administration’s strategic rationale for policy of media embedding. are deposed from the outside? Does the war in Iraq. the war mark a new stage in the The Middle East Dimensions development of the so-called The International Dimensions The six chapters of Part II explore Revolution in Military Affairs? Have Part I of the book opens with an issues related specifically to Israel and Israel’s security threats changed in the examination of United States foreign its strategic environment. How aftermath of the war? Does the new policy and the international system Saddam's fall impacts on Iraq, the regional balance warrant a shift in both before and in light of the Iraq region at large, and the prospects for Israel’s home front defense policy? War. Four chapters delve into different Israeli-Palestinian peace are How did the Pentagon’s media policy aspects of US foreign and defense examined, along with the regional reflect the importance policymakers strategy, including arms control strategic balance in the wake of the attributed to military–media relations? policy, and chart the evolution of the war. The case of weapons of mass Bush administration approach that led destruction in Iraq, controversial both After the War in Iraq: Defining the to the military campaign. September before the war and in its aftermath, is New Strategic Balance, published 11, 2001 in particular was a watershed the subject of one chapter. On the with Sussex Academic Press in English in the formation of current US defense Israel front, there is a survey of the and with the Ministry of Defense strategy. The four chapters that follow Israeli public's behavior before and Publishing House in Hebrew, focuses analyze various other global during the war and a review of Israel's on many different dimensions to the ramifications of the war. The home front defense policy. war launched in March 2003 by the connection between the Iraq War and

The book can be ordered online from Sussex Academic Press, http://www.sussex-academic.co.uk.

4 JCSS Bulletin WEIGHING STRATEGIC OPTIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

In September 2003 the Jaffee Center them events leading up to the war in for Strategic Studies released its Iraq, the United States war on terror flagship publication, The Middle East that is inextricably linked to the Strategic Balance. Formerly The Middle East, and the Israeli-Palestinian Middle East Military Balance, the new crisis, which in its present unresolved format of the annual publication state looms as a major threat to provides an extensive analysis of regional peace and bears significant strategic developments and a brief international ramifications. account of the region’s military forces. The change of emphasis from previous The book is divided into two sections: volumes, which included detailed Iran, and a review of the military data on military forces, reflects the Part I contains eight analytical balances of the Middle East, including understanding that readers are chapters that focus on regional the Arab-Israeli balance, the balance increasingly interested in an developments and issues that are in the Gulf, and the balance of non- assessment of strategic developments particularly related to Israel’s strategic conventional weapons. Other topics in the region. options. Chapters include a strategic analyzed are the post-September 11 Middle East issues dominated the survey of the Middle East, a closer environment with regard to global agenda in 2002-2003, among analysis of developments in Iraq and counterterrorism challenges; the Arab- Israeli arena, primarily the crisis with the Palestinians; a portrait of the Israeli society with an emphasis on Israeli public opinion on issues of national security; an assessment of Israel’s economy as it struggled with the slowdown in the global economy and the burden of the Palestinian conflict; and the particular challenges that Israeli Arabs present to the State of Israel. Part II, compiled by Yiftah Shapir, offers an overview of the region’s military forces, including the major changes in the orders of battle and the key components of their force structures. This is the basis for the detailed data on military forces that is now available online on the JCSS JCSS press conference in September 2003 announcing the publication of After the War in Iraq website, www.tau.ac.il/jcss/balance and The Middle East Strategic Balance 2002-2003. Seated, l-r: Yoram Schweitzer, Brig. Gen. and is updated on a regular basis. Shlomo Brom, JCSS Deputy Head Dr. Ephraim Kam, Dr. Ephraim Asculai, and Yiftah Shapir

February 2004 5 BRONFMAN PROGRAM ON

In the framework of the Andrea and Charles Bronfman Program The most recent workshop, which on Information Strategy, dedicated to examining Israel’s took place in November 2003, examined two current issues in communications strategy, JCSS held three workshops for JCSS government communications policy. research staff and the program’s consulting group. The group is The first was Israel’s decision to comprised of experts from academia, government, the military, suspend relations with the BBC in the journalism, and the communications industry, and meets summer of 2003. The decision, triggered by the BBC film on the Israeli periodically to debate strategic communications issues. nuclear project, led to a five-month hiatus in relations. The practical ramifications were that no official Israeli spokespeople were interviewed by the BBC, nor were journalists invited to briefings or updates. During Prime Minister Sharon‘s visit to London in the summer of 2003, the BBC was not granted access to his press conferences. Gideon Meir, the Foreign Ministry’s Deputy Director General for Press and Public Affairs, discussed the decision to suspend relations with the BBC in the context of growing opposition to Israel in the media. In Bronfman Program Director Hirsh Goodman (left) with Gideon Meir (center) and response, Professor Gadi Wolfsfeld of Prof. Gadi Wolfsfeld the Hebrew University argued that negative press coverage reflects public opinion on Israel, and does not itself create the hostile environment. Despite suggestions to the contrary, the media remains the “tail,“ and it does not “wag the dog.“ Dr. Ephraim Asculai, JCSS Research Associate and former Director of External Relations for the Israeli Atomic Energy Committee, commented on the challenge of media relations while maintaining Israel’s policy of nuclear ambiguity. He was followed by JCSS Head Dr. Shai Feldman, who provided an overview of international opinion on Israel‘s nuclear potential. The second issued addressed in the workshop was censorship. Brig. Gen. Rachel Dolev, the IDF’s Chief Military Censor, discussed the role of censorship in the modern com- munications era as a balance between the demands of national security and those of freedom of expression.

6 JCSS Bulletin INFORMATION STRATEGY

Referring to the Supreme Court with the Foreign Ministry as the lead The workshop of July 2003 decision Schnitzer vs. the Chief agency. He also called for increased projected the impact of the Military Censor, she argued that the public consulting, and said he would International Criminal Court on Israel’s physical survival of the state is a work to establish a public commission communications strategy (ICC). The prerequisite for the realization of those with input from communications new court necessarily fosters different democratic values that sometimes academics and professionals. dynamics between the press who want seem suspended. Thus, despite efforts to release as much information as possible, the demands of national security must take precedence. In response, Prof. Yoram Peri of Tel Aviv University argued that the issue is not one of national security versus freedom of expression, rather national security versus freedom to criticize. The censor rarely has had to obstruct leaking harmful operational details, but has instead used its power to prevent legitimate questioning of Evaluating the role of the media in the Iraq War were (seated, l-r): Hirsh Goodman, Prof. Yoram government policy. It is time, he Peri, Shalom Kital, Carmit Guy, and Dr. Moshe Zuckerman suggested, that the archaic Emergency Defense Regulations, in effect since Israel‘s independence, be replaced A DELICATE BALANCE with new legislation. The keynote speaker was Deputy The Media and the War in Iraq Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, who described the On April 14, less than a week after embedding journalists with combat need for factoring media the conquest of Baghdad, the Jaffee units, the difficulty of analyzing considerations into policymaking. He Center and Tel Aviv University’s round-the-clock coverage of war announced that he Chaim Herzog Institute for Media, from the front line, and the need for would be seeking Politics and Society held a a “national spokesman” such as greater coordination workshop on the relationship Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad, who held in government between the media and the allied the position in Israel during the war. communications, commanders during the Iraq War, The policy of embedding and how Israeli officials handled resulted in overwhelmingly positive media policy here. coverage of the war in the US and The panelists for the discussion European media, and in fact, included Shalom Kital from embedded journalists seem to have Channel 2 News, Kol Yisrael’s found it hard to report objectively Carmit Guy, Dr. Moshe Zuckerman on the war. The constant barrage of from Tel Aviv University, and Dr. news updates from the field made Khalil Rinnawi from the College of it difficult for news organizations to Management. Prof. Yoram Peri, provide analytical coverage of the Director of the Herzog Institute, war. Concerns were also raised introduced the subject while Hirsh about Israel’s appointment of a Goodman, Director of the wartime “national spokesman,” Bronfman Program on Information whose authority exceeded that of Strategy, closed the panel. the IDF Spokesperson and the The panelists debated the Foreign Ministry’s Press and Public Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom was the keynote efficacy of the US policy of Affairs department. speaker at the November 2003 workshop

February 2004 7 to document a story and soldiers in The first meeting, held in The second session looked at the the field who fear possible November 2002, addressed the theoretical background to government prosecution. relationship between the media and communications policies. Professor Attorney Irit Kahan, head of the government, particularly in the Tamar Liebes, Chair of the Department International Law Department at the context of the ongoing war with the of Communications at Hebrew Ministry of Justice, discussed the Palestinians. Then British Ambassador University, suggested that although concept of universal jurisdiction. to Israel Sherard Cowper-Coles narratives of suffering are easier for the Israel has traditionally been one of opened the meeting with some international community to the principal proponents of observations on media-government understand, Israel often describes the international law as a remedy for relations, and stressed the need for conflict in terms of rights and justice. crimes against the international flexible tactical thinking and sound Professor Gadi Wolfsfeld, also of community. The Nazis and Nazi operational principles. cont. on p.16 Collaborators (Punishment) Law, which is extraterritorial, retroactive, and without a statute of limitations, is a good example of such 2003 legislation. However, the new court, as well as the move to try Prime Minister Ariel Sharon for war crimes TSHETSHIK in the Belgian courts, illustrates the danger of political interests PRIZE interfering with principles of universal jurisdiction. Because of FOR such interests, Israel, along with the US, has removed its signature from the Rome Convention, which STRATEGIC established the ICC. Former Police Commissioner Aryeh Amit STUDIES (left) and Reuven Merhav, former director of Colonel Daniel Reisner, Head of the Foreign Ministry, now fellows at the the International Law Department at Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies the Military Advocate General’s AWARDED office, and Colonel Erez Katz, a Three works shared the annual Lt. Col. Meir and Rachel Tshetshik Prize for senior field commander in the Gaza Strategic Studies on Israel’s Security. The $10,000 prize is awarded by a district, discussed the difficulties of ruling whether military operations committee of senior Jaffee Center research staff to original works related to conform to the laws of war. In many Israel’s national security challenges. The winning works were Dr. Menachem cases, precedents do not exist, and Klein’s Breaking Taboos: Talks on Final Status Agreements on Jerusalem, both commanders and legal experts Dr. Yitzhak Greenberg’s have to apply existing law to new Warrior Nation, and circumstances. Peace Agreements in The final speaker, IDF Jerusalem, written by a Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Ruth team of researchers from Yaron, noted that the responsibility the Jerusalem Institute for for the IDF’s actions must be borne by the government. The IDF Israel Studies. Following executes policy, but does not initiate the award ceremony, Prof. it. Thus, the task of informing about Arnon Sofer of Haifa military operations, especially if they University lectured on the are controversial and expose importance of the security commanders to the risk of JCSS Deputy Head Dr. Ephraim Kam (left) with, l-r: prize fence to separate Israel prosecution, must fall to political winner Dr. Menachem Klein, JCSS Head Dr. Shai Feldman, from the Palestinians. leaders rather than to military and Yehoshua Nevo, director of the Tshetshik Fund commanders.

8 JCSS Bulletin Civil-MilitaryCivil-Military RelationsRelations inin IsraelIsrael

In March 2003, at the initiative of Ze’ev Schiff, Senior Defense Editor for Ha’aretz, the Jaffee Center held a one- day conference on the subject of Civil- Military Relations in Israel. The conference was dedicated to the memory of Prof. Amos Perlmutter, a distinguished scholar whose work Dr. Yehuda Ben Meir at the opening panel of the Amos Perlmutter memorial conference. covered the Middle East, US foreign and Seated, l-r: Imri Tov, Judge Amnon Strashnov, Ze'ev Schiff, and JCSS Head Dr. Shai Feldman defense policy, and military sociology. In opening the conference, Schiff In the second panel, Maj. Gen. (res.) Closing the panel was Maj. Gen. described Perlmutter‘s research on a Aviezer Yaari, formerly director of the (ret.) Uzi Dayan, former National wide range of subjects and his Defense Division in the State Security Advisor, who called for a contribution to the understanding of Comptroller’s office, reviewed the clearer distinction between the military Israeli security issues. mechanisms through which civilian and political leadership. It is in cases In the first panel discussion, Dr. institutions, including the government, where this distinction is not clear that Yehuda Ben Meir, JCSS Research Fellow the Knesset, the State Comptroller, and military matters are politicized, and and former deputy foreign minister, the Defense Establishment Ombudsman, politics are militarized. suggested that the military echelon is oversee the IDF. These mechanisms subordinate to the politicians, both improved in the 1980s, when the The conference ended with an address formally and in practice. Historically, it government accepted the need for by former Prime Minister Ehud Barak is the political leadership of the country overseeing even the intelligence and on the issues of civil-military relations that has made the critical decisions, and security agencies. Prof. Yoram Peri of as reflected in Israel’s decision to the military’s influence has been limited. Tel Aviv University‘s Herzog Institute for withdraw from Lebanon in May 2000. The panel also considered legal and Media, Politics and Society described Rather than a clear distinction between economic questions regarding civil- the way in which the media has the military and the politicians, he military relations. Retired District Court developed from “media in the service argued that there is in fact much overlap Justice and Chief Military Prosecutor of the state“ to an investigative between them, which will continue to Amnon Strashnov discussed the watchdog. He noted that this trend has exist. Nonetheless, the relationship is Supreme Court‘s role in sitting as the reversed somewhat since the outbreak more one of High Court of Justice. He suggested that of the current wave of Israeli-Palestinian dialogue than of there is now a far more interventionist violence. tension. approach to what were once considered internal affairs for the IDF. Imri Tov, JCSS Senior Research Associate and former Economic Advisor to the defense The proceedings of the conference were edited by Ram establishment, described the relations Erez, and published in Hebrew in November 2003 as between the IDF, the Ministry of JCSS Memorandum No. 68, “Civil-Military Relations in Defense, and the Ministry of Finance in Israel: Influences and Restraints.” the financial supervision of the IDF.

February 2004 9 STATE OF THE NATION THE 2003 YARIV MEMORIAL CONFERENCE “Hamas is a strategic threat to Israel and an existential threat to the PA”- General Security Services Chief Avi Dichter speaking at JCSS forum in his first public address

In July 2003 the annual to cross the fence from Gaza conference in memory of into Israel. On the other Maj. Gen. Aharon Yariv, the hand, 124 bombers man- first Head of JCSS, was held aged to cross into Israel from at Tel Aviv University. The the West Bank. Despite conference, titled “The State strident PA objections to the of the Nation: Israel’s fence, Dichter suggested that National Agenda in 2003,” by reducing violence, the attracted a capacity audience fence might even repair of 650 people. relations between the two. GSS Head Avi Dichter opening the 2003 Yariv memorial conference The keynote speaker for Dichter confirmed the morning session was Avi reports released earlier by Dichter, head of the General the IDF according to which Security Services (GSS). In his first Dichter described the security Iran is the “world’s No. 1 terrorist public appearance as head of the GSS, fence under construction in the West state.” Iran fully controls the Islamic Dichter presented the conclusions to Bank as one of the most effective tools Jihad, and is increasingly burrowing be drawn from the ongoing Israeli- for stopping terrorist infiltrations into itself into Hamas’s affairs. Following Palestinian violence that erupted in Israel. Of 55 would-be Palestinian the closure of dozens of Islamic September 2000. suicide bombers, only three were able fundraising organizations across the

1010 JCSSJCSS Bulletin Bulletin world after the September 11 fence around Palestinian attacks in the US, Hamas has population areas. sought alternative sources of Commenting on Pales- funding and therefore is tinian developments, Col. turning more and more, albeit Shalom Harari, former reluctantly, towards Iran. Advisor on Arab Affairs to the The conference’s first panel Ministry of Defense, pointed explored developments within to a disintegration of civic Israeli society. Referring to the MK and Histadrut leader Amir Peretz (left) and Meir society and a return of primary decision of the Ministry of Sheetrit, Minister without Portfolio, Finance Ministry, loyalty to the clan or extended Education to establish a speak with JCSS Deputy Head Dr. Ephraim Kam (right) family. There is, however, a commission to investigate the sense of pride within disappointing educational Palestinian society in resisting achievements of Israel’s high continued attacks from Israeli school graduates, former forces. Director General of the Shlomo Brom, Senior Ministry of Education Dr. Research Associate at the Shimshon Shoshani described Jaffee Center, discussed the the situation as “endangering future of the Israel-Palestinian the nation.” In 1995, Israel conflict. He suggested that was ranked 21 out of 41 following the Iraq War, there countries in its mathematics was another opportunity for performance, whereas in the sides to negotiate a “final 1999, it had dropped to 28 out status” agreement. However, of 38. Technologically the US-sponsored roadmap advancing countries like was an imperfect tool and it Efraim Halevy presented the closing lecture of the Thailand, South Korea, and was not clear that Prime conference; seated: JCSS Head Dr. Shai Feldman Singapore, as well as Slovakia, Minister Sharon and then Romania, and Cyprus, Prime Minister Abbas had outperform Israel in these tests. both the will and the means In a country that lacks abundant peace process would bring significant to implement it. This failure, suggested natural resources, he suggested, it is economic dividends for Israel. Brom, could result either in a all the more important that Israel Dr. Shai Feldman, Head of JCSS, continuation of the violence, or recognize the critical value of its opened the second panel, which unilateral moves such as the human resources and place education examined developments in the area completion of the security fence or the at the top of its agenda. of Israel-Palestinian relations. On the approval of an international Meir Sheetrit, Minister without one hand, he suggested, Israel’s intervention force for the region. Portfolio (Finance Ministry), described strategic situation is stronger than ever, The third session of the day the Israeli economy as having been and its government’s positions on key surveyed the wider arena. Professor on the brink of collapse, with the issues have been widely accepted Shlomo Avineri of the Hebrew burden of an inflated public sector as abroad. Thus, Yasir Arafat has been University considered the im- the primary cause. The solution, he increasingly sidelined, resumption of plications of the September 11 terror suggested, was to encourage a return negotiations is conditional on the attacks for the Arab world. First, he to work, and to discourage a culture cessation of violence, and any final suggested, the attacks illustrated that of reliance on welfare payments. Amir status agreements will be predicated the Arab world had remained largely Peretz, leader of the Histadrut on the disarmament of Palestinian unaffected by a steadily increasing workers’ federation and Member of terror groups. However, he added, global tendency towards de- Knesset, argued that social provisions there is also widespread acceptance mocratization since the end of the should be universal, and that any such deal will require an Cold War. Furthermore, the internal improvements in the economy cannot Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 lines dynamics of the Arab world had been be at the expense of the weaker and the dismantling of settlements. considered of marginal significance sectors in society. Both speakers Israel, he added, has not made its case by many in the West. However, the agreed, however, that progress in the persuasively for the need for a security cont. on p.16

February 2004 11 Guests at JCSS

Briefing on the Missile Technology Control Reqime Handzlik opened with a review of major changes that have occurred in the global security environment since the Cold War. Among the problems he noted were the new non-conventional threats, and what he described as the crisis in international organizations. Thus, organizations are needed that better reflect current international realities, rather than the post-WWII global reality. Handzlik provided a brief history of the MTCR and the problems that it faced Participants at the briefing given by Marius Handzlik, MTCR Chairman (seated at far left). from its inception. Current activities of The meeting was organized by Dr. Emily Landau. the regime include: regional non- proliferation in the Korean peninsula, South Asia, the Middle East, and the In May 2003, Marius Handzlik, Chairman of the Missile Balkan region; an outreach program that provides information Technology Control Regime (MTCR), addressed an arms on the extent of the missile threat; an enlargement program, to control forum, that included JCSS research staff and bring in additional supplier states; and enhancing enforcement select individuals from academia, the Foreign Ministry, efforts. Handzlik also mentioned the attempt to use export and the security establishment. control regimes in the fight against terrorism.

Israel-German Dialogue: Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy

On May 24-26, 2003, the Jaffee Center hosted the annual Israel- German dialogue with colleagues from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), the Berlin-based Dr. Shmuel Harlap (left) with JCSS Head German Institute for International Dr. Mark Heller at a seminar announcing the English- Dr. Shai Feldman (center) and Baruch language publication of Germany and the Middle East: and Security Affairs. With Bina of the Foreign Ministry (right) Interests and Options. The May 2003 meeting at Tel Aviv approximately 150 staff members, University was attended by many of the book’s the SWP is the largest research contributors. institute of its kind in Western Europe. The dialogue was the fifth of a series of meetings between the Jaffee Center and SWP, ongoing since 1998 and sponsored by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. Discussions touched on the current state of German-Israeli relations, Europe and the Middle East in the aftermath of the Iraq War, and other issues related to Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad (left) and JCSS Israel, including the threats posed by Syria, Iran, and Hizbollah. Israeli Board Member Barry Swersky

12 JCSS Bulletin Guests at JCSS

Senator Ron Wyden JCSS Hosts at Forum America Congressman

“Israel can expect continued warm relations with the United States.” Gary Ackerman Senator Ron Wyden, the senior senator from Oregon and member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, was the keynote speaker in In February 2003, the Jaffee Center December 2003 at the opening meeting of the Jaffee Center’s Forum hosted Congressman Gary America. Wyden considered the interplay between domestic politics, Ackerman (D-NY) and briefed him and in particular the on developments in the Middle East. upcoming US Congressman Ackerman, serving his presidential elections, eleventh term in the House of and American foreign Representatives, is a senior member policy. of the House International Relations Wyden stressed that Committee and is the ranking in addition to support Democrat of the International within the current Relations Subcommittee on the administration, Israel Middle East and Central Asia, which enjoys widespread reviews US policy towards nations support in the House of in the Middle East and Central Asia. Representatives. Should the Republicans lose the presidency, Israel can JCSS Head Dr. Shai Feldman (left) with Senator Ron Wyden expect continued warm (center) and Zvi Rafiah, director of Forum America relations with the United States. Forum America, created by the Jaffee Center and directed by Zvi Rafiah, follows developments in US foreign policy in the Middle East and will hold working meetings with senior American foreign policy officials. Joining JCSS research staff in the forum are government officials, senior military figures, academics, and journalists.

First Dialogue between JCSS and Royal Institute of International Affairs, London

In June 2003, a delegation of JCSS researchers led by Middle East and North Africa (MENA) research group, JCSS Head Dr. Shai Feldman held a strategic dialogue and with the Ministry of Defence’s Directorate of with colleagues from the Royal Institute of International Overseas Military Planning, where developments in the Affairs (RIIA) in London, also known as Chatham House. security and defense fields were discussed. The team also Over two days the researchers discussed the regional spent nearly an entire day with the BBC World Service. and international repercussions of the Iraq war, the Journalists, editors, and producers from both radio and prospects for developments on the Arab-Israel front, television met with Jaffee Center researchers in intense Anglo-Israeli relations, and US policy in the Middle East. discussions. The JCSS team’s trip to London was Following the dialogue, the JCSS team met with supported by the Portland Trust. researchers from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office’s

February 2004 13 Publications

NEW RULES OF THE four states who, in one way or another, ISRAELI PUBLIC OPINION ON have influence over Hizbollah – Syria, GAME: ISRAEL AND Lebanon, Iran, and Israel. As a Lebanese NATIONAL SECURITY, 2003 HIZBOLLAH AFTER THE Shiite organization, Hizbollah is JCSS MEMORANDUM NO. 67 particularly attuned to its domestic WITHDRAWAL FROM constituency, and the study argues that LEBANON it is the Lebanese imperative that has not In October 2003 the Center published a detailed received sufficient attention in most analysis of the results of its 18th annual survey JCSS MEMORANDUM NO. 69 previous analyses. on public opinion and national security, directed Hizbollah’s relative restraint since by Professor Asher Arian. The data produced by Prior to May 2000, the possibility of a the IDF withdrawal has, according to the the 2003 survey – conducted between April 27 withdrawal of IDF troops from the author, been dictated by three principal and May 23 – was first released in June 2003. “security zone” in southern Lebanon rules of the game: acknowledgment of The poll showed that a growing majority of raised concerns within Israel’s defense the UN Blue Line, with the critical Israelis favored the establishment of a Palestinian establishment that the security situation exception of the Shab’a Farms area; use state in the framework of a peace agreement, and would deteriorate, with a consequent rise of Shab’a Farms as a legitimate arena for generally felt more secure and open to in violence and without the buffer of the military operations; and reciprocity- compromise than they did in 2002. Fifty-nine “security zone” to protect Israeli civilians based activity, along the lines of “an eye percent of the Israeli public was willing to from attack. for an eye.” Professed support for the abandon all but the large settlement blocs, an Daniel Sobelman’s study argues that Palestinians has not led Hizbollah to increase from 50% the previous year. The number rather than a deterioration of the security escalate activity dramatically since the of those supporting the idea of separation from situation, ground rules emerged between current Israeli-Palestinian violence the Palestinians by withdrawing unilaterally, even the IDF and the Hizbollah, which have erupted in September 2000, largely out if that meant abandoning settlements, increased resulted in more than three years of relative of consideration for Lebanese interests from 48% in 2002 to 56% in 2003. The number quiet on Israel’s border with Lebanon. It and consequent adherence to the rules of those supporting the conceding of the Arab considers the contrasting interests of the of the game. neighborhoods of Jerusalem in the framework of

14 JCSS Bulletin BUILDING REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST: INTERNATIONAL, REGIONAL AND DOMESTIC INFLUENCES

Discussions on regional security were backdrop of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian initiated in the Middle East in 1992, as part conflict, this volume offers insights into past of the Madrid peace talks. The collapse of experiences with regional security structures, the Oslo process, along with other regional such as NATO’s contribution to the pluralistic developments in the latter half of the 1990s, community in Western Europe, and factors that diminished hopes that the initial gains made must be considered for launching future in regional security affairs might improve initiatives. security relations in the area. Published by Frank Cass as a book and also as Edited by Prof. Zeev Maoz, Dr. Emily Landau a special issue of the Journal of Strategic (JCSS), and Tamar Malz (JCSS), the book is a Studies, the book features eight essays on collection of essays focusing on possible security regime theory and practice. It directions for getting regional security efforts presents analyses that argue that some form back on track. In the window of opportunity of regional security regime would constitute opened by the post-Iraq period, yet against the a positive development for the Middle East.

a peace agreement increased from 40 percent BETWEEN WARNING AND The study describes the decisions taken in 2002 to 43 percent in 2003. by the government following the Yom Kippur Also significant is the heightened sense of SURPRISE: ON SHAPING War and as a consequence of the Agranat security in 2003, far surpassing the low points NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE Commission’s report. It looks at the recorded in the 2002 survey. For example: in organizational changes since 1974 in the 2003, 34% of respondents thought the chances ASSESSMENT IN ISRAEL intelligence community, which includes IDF were high or very high that war would break Military Intelligence, the Mossad, the Foreign JCSS MEMORANDUM NO. 66 out in the next three years. This represents more Ministry, and the General Security Service. than a 50% reduction from the 79% of 2002. It also analyzes the value of “pluralism” in Forty-three percent in 2003 predicted that Shlomo Gazit’s study examines the quality intelligence assessment and the significance peace would be strengthened between Israel of the strategic assessments provided by of the research units of the Mossad, the the Israeli intelligence community, and its neighbors in the next three years, a Foreign Ministry, and the General Security assessments that must anticipate in a timely Services as a counterweight to Military dramatic increase of more than 100% from the fashion the critical strategic developments Intelligence. 21% of 2002. in the area, both military and political, and Finally, Gazit presents three principal A slight majority – 52% – thought that the from which political leaders must develop recommendations: the creation of an end of the conflict would not be reached national policy. Intelligence Advisor, who would report either through the intervention of a third party and Since the intelligence failure of the directly to the prime minister or through the that the parties themselves must work out the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the leaders of the National Security Council; the creation of a details. Sixty-eight percent of the respondents intelligence community have tried to avoid national intelligence assessment authority opposed the idea of the United States imposing any possible recurrence of such critical that would report to the prime minister and a solution on the parties (80% in 2002). This misreading of enemy intentions. Despite be independent of any of the intelligence might be the reason why only 40% of Israeli the efforts of the community and steps to assessment bodies currently existing; and the Jews felt that the roadmap would end the Arab- reduce the danger of faulty intelligence recognition of the Foreign Ministry as the Israeli conflict. Notwithstanding these assessments, however, no organizational lead agency for providing political positions, two-thirds thought that American solution has yet been found that will assessment and policy options to the security guarantees could be relied upon. prevent such mistakes from being repeated. government.

February 2004 15 Bronfman Program STATE OF THE NATION cont. from p. 8 cont. from p. 11 Keep Informed

Hebrew University, argued that fact that all 19 of the bombers involved public opinion is an increasingly in the September 11 attacks were Arabs important test for policy. Even strong indicates that such issues can no longer parties must understand the value of be overlooked. Realization that the Arab the media, and if the critical world poses a fundamental challenge Tel Aviv Notes is a joint domestic and international to international security was the key publication of the Jaffee Center audiences are supportive of policy, reason behind the US decision to go to for Strategic Studies and the positive press coverage will follow. war in Iraq. Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Three leading communications MK and former Ambassador to Eastern and African Studies. practitioners – representing the Portugal Colette Avital described Israeli- Edited by Dr. Mark Heller of the Foreign Ministry, the IDF, and the European relations as “pull and push.” Jaffee Center, the publication Prime Minister’s Office – formed a Europe is Israel’s most important trading panel on the realities of government partner, accounting for 40% of imports provides timely updates on communications. Gideon Meir of and exports, and Israel is the only non- political and strategic affairs in the Foreign Ministry welcomed the EU country that participates in the EU’s the Middle East. State Comptroller’s report that was science and technology research highly critical of the government‘s projects. However, there is an increasing information policy, although it gap between Israel and Europe; in ignored the difficulties of European eyes, Israel looks like the last communicating unpopular policy. remnant of colonialism, and has turned He called for greater coordination from the oppressed to the oppressor. across government agencies and a In the final speech of the conference, Strategic Assessment, a better understanding that different Efraim Halevy, outgoing National quarterly publication initiated in audiences require different Security Council director and former messages. IDF Spokesperson Brig. head of the Mossad, said that Israel 1998, presents four to six short Gen. Ruth Yaron described the would not be able to tolerate the threat articles that address subjects efforts to improve the military’s from Hizbollah on its northern border related to Israeli security. ability to communicate timely and for much longer: “Missiles aimed at Strategic Assessment is accurate information. Soldiers Israel is not a reality we can accept. The published in Hebrew and designated as Operational coming year will be marked by the English. Documenters will be responsible for removal of this threat by Israel, by one conveying information from the means or another. front to the news outlets. The Prime There are other ways of neutralizing Tel Aviv Notes, Minister’s foreign media advisor, Dr. Hizbollah besides a frontal Israeli Strategic Assessment, Ra’anan Gissin, suggested that operation: there are sufficient and Israeli information professionals are international and regional levers that JCSS Memoranda placed in the unique position of not can wield a critical influence on the are available at only having to explain policy, but continued existence of the military also having to justify Israel’s right to capability held by Hizbollah.” www.tau.ac.il/jcss/ exist.

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