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Palestine 2030 Policy Paper Compendium Palestine Strategy Group June 2020 Palestine 2030: Policy Paper Compendium│ Palestine Strategy Group Cover image: PalFest 2016 / Flickr Creative Commons Disclaimer: ‘This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It is the sole responsibility of PSG in partnership with ORG, MADAR, PalThink and I’lam and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union. The views expressed in this document are those of the PSG and do not necessarily reflect the views of the other partners.’ Palestine 2030: Policy Paper Compendium│ Palestine Strategy Group Contents Supplement to the ‘Palestine 2030’ Strategic Report ................................................... 1 Part I: Israel Dimension ................................................................................................ 7 Israeli-Jewish Demographic Changes and Their Political Dimensions: 1948 – 2017 ................................................. 8 BARHOOM JARAYSI Neoliberalism, the Rise of New Forces in Israel, and their Impact on Israeli Policies ............................................. 28 KHALED ANABTAWI The Makeup of the Political and Electoral System in Israel: The Formation of a “Dominant Bloc System” in Israel ........ 51 MUHANNAD MUSTAFA Proposed Solutions and Scenarios for Influencing Israeli Public Opinion ............................................................... 68 ANTON SHALHUT Part II: Regional Dimension ........................................................................................ 83 Palestine in a Changing Regional Environment: The Specificities of Jordan and Egypt .......................................... 84 ORAIB RANTAWI Challenges After the Military Defeat of ISIS .......................................................................................................... 103 MUSA SHTEIWI Turkey, Iran, and Politics of Interest with Regards to Palestine ............................................................................ 117 KHALED HROUB Regional Coalitions, Unilateral Initiatives, and the Question of Palestine ............................................................ 131 THE PSG Part III: International Dimension .............................................................................. 156 Re-launching the UN Campaign: Full Member State, Joining UN Bodies and Reconstructing the International Legal Track ............................................................................................................................................................. 157 SHAWAN JABBARIN Opportunities and Constraints for Advancing Palestinian Rights by Engaging the Major Power Blocs ............... 168 TOUFIC HADDAD Engaging International Civil Society: human rights, Activism and Solidarity Campaigns ..................................... 179 CECILIA BAEZA Diplomacy & Israeli Accountability: Multilateral Peace-making: The Framework, Scope and Stakeholders ....... 192 ZAHA HASSAN Palestine 2030: Policy Paper Compendium│ Palestine Strategy Group Supplement to the ‘Palestine 2030’ Strategic Report 1. Introduction This compendium includes the policy papers that were commissioned to form the basis of the ‘Palestine 2030’ strategic report, which in turn seeks to inform the direction of the Palestinian strategy towards a peaceful resolution to the conflict. These publications are the product of a three-year Palestine Strategy Group (PSG) project-‘Building Strategic Capacity: Empowering Civil, Political and Emerging Constituencies in Palestine’, co-funded by the European Union and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, involving the commissioning of twelve research papers, thirteen roundtables discussions and four international workshops. The overarching objective of the project was to create new networks of civil-political agencies; develop an inclusive forum and ultimately provide knowledge-based, strategy orientated outputs to impact decision-making processes in Palestine. The project was envisioned in late 2016, as part of PSG’s efforts since 2008, in the context of the stagnation of the ‘peace process’, the breakdown of negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis, the rise of the “New Right” in Israel and regional turmoil which redrew regional and international interests and alliances. As such, the research was designed to map the social, political and economic realities inside Israel, explore the shifts in regional alliances in relation to the Palestinian issue, and finally to assess the possible frameworks through which to re-engage the international community with the Palestinian cause. These three years 2017-2019 have coincided with the systematic tearing up of the previous long- standing international consensus on how to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by the new Trump administration in the US. This culminated in the unilateral 28 January 2020 publication of the US “Peace to Prosperity” doctrine, endorsed by the current Israeli government, without Palestinian participation or consultation. As detailed in the accompanying ‘Palestine 2030’ report, this promotion of the extreme strategic goals of the new right in Israel compels a reciprocal Palestinian strategic response. It marks the definitive end of the idea that bilateral negotiations with Israel brokered by the US can lead to peace and necessitates exactly the kind of strategic rethinking that ‘Palestine 2030’ aims to initiate. The process of providing feedback on the drafting process through expert consultations, workshops and round-table discussions was intended to augment and enrich the research and engage a wide cross-section of Palestinians in strategic thinking. ‘Palestine 2030’ is intended as a strategic manual and reference point for politicians, journalists, academics, researchers, civil society, grass roots activists, and regional and international stakeholders. It is hoped that ‘Palestine 2030’ will give shape to the long-term trajectories of relationships and strategies that provide the basis for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. The following sections will introduce the Palestine Strategy Group (PSG) and provide an overview of their work and achievements over the last decade, summarize the underlying methodology that has driven the project to date, and introduce the policy papers that constitute this compendium. 1.1 What is the Palestine Strategy Group (PSG)? Convened in 2008 and hosted by the Oxford Research Group (ORG), the Palestine Strategy Group (PSG) provides a vital and unique capacity to enable integrated and sustained Palestinian 1 Palestine 2030: Policy Paper Compendium│ Palestine Strategy Group strategic thinking to help guide the Palestinian national project. It is an active and influential group comprising more than 630 members. It engages a wide range of key Palestinians from different political, professional and geographic backgrounds and aims to inform and influence policy decisions, filling an important strategic gap in Palestinian discourse. It functions as a safe, systematic space beyond governmental corridors for the wider public to contribute their unique perspectives and experiences to the Palestinian decision-making process and the national dialogue at large. It has provided sustained support for inclusive Palestinian strategic thinking at the highest level, hosting meetings, convening focus groups, developing strategic analysis, and conducting scenario planning in order to facilitate an open and secure space for debate on policy formulations and ways forward. 1.2 The PSG since 2008 After building strategic capacity and pioneering new concepts in recent years, the Palestine Strategy Group (PSG) has earned a reputation for developing ahead-of-the-curve thinking and impacting decision-making processes at the highest levels. With five major strategy papers (2008, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017) – most recently “Relations between Palestinians across the Green Line” – its thinking has both reflected and contributed to the national debate, offering options, goals, and alternative paradigms that have influenced Palestinian policy- and decision- makers. The PSG’s first strategic report argued for the creation of parallel tracks to the negotiations and stressed the need for internationalisation. The report initiated an internal and external debate, where engagement from key decision-makers led to the evident adoption of certain recommendations, contributing to the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) strategic decision to pursue the UN/internationalisation path for recognition of a Palestinian state. Impact can be identified throughout the PSG’s reports, such as the 2015 ‘A Post-Oslo Strategy’, which argued for multilateral peace-making, encouraged the redefinition of Palestine’s relationship with Israel, and contributed to the formulation of a new PA strategy to redraw the political, economic and security relations. The PSG is well-positioned to build on the strength of its track record and capitalize on the momentum as seen in its rapid growth in participation, further investing in its work and experience to aim for a long-term vision and formulate an overarching Palestinian strategy. The publication of this compendium is intended to contribute to the dissemination of the knowledge produced to date and continue to inspire conversations and proactive engagement by all Palestinians. 1.2 Collective Strategic Thinking (CST) The methodology utilised throughout the discussions, workshops
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