A Cities Approach to Sustainability

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Daniel Hoornweg

A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto

A Cities Approach to Sustainability

Daniel Hoornweg

Doctor of Philosophy

Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto

2015

Abstract

This thesis provides a response to the question of how we might achieve greater sustainability, and from that sustainable development. An engineering approach, or applied science (physical and social), integrated within a multi-stakeholder partnership, is proposed. A road map to a partial, or ‘shadow agreement’ is proposed, that would hopefully serve as the start of a global process leading to comprehensive sustainable development.

An argument is made why cities are the most likely actors to design and bring about such an agreement. An agreement among the world’s larger cities (those urban areas with 5 million or more residents by 2050) is possible, and is likely a necessary, but not sufficient condition to achieve sustainable development. Each city is viewed as a unique system as well as collectively within a ‘system-of-systems,’ and more broadly within local and global ecosystems and economies. Global boundaries and objectives such as the Sustainable Development Goals are down-scaled and applied at a metro-city level.

Population projections are provided for the world’s larger cities (in 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100). Along with the hierarchy of sustainable cities, two new tools are developed in this thesis: (i) a cities approach to physical and socio-economic boundaries, and: (ii) sustainability costs curves. These two tools underpin the shadow agreement and are powerful planning and engineering tools in their own right. Case study application of the tools is provided for Dakar, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, and Toronto.

Acknowledgements

A graduate student over 50 has even more people to thank than usual. At the top of the list is my advisor Chris Kennedy. I met Chris while working at the World Bank and saw how high-quality, under-stated research could have such a tremendous impact. I only hope I learned a little from the teacher. Chris’ enthusiasm and good nature convinced me to undertake this effort, and his support enabled me to finish. I am very thankful. I also want to thank the other members of my committee: Eric Miller, Patricia McCarney, Kim Pressnail and Michael Sanio. This is not a short document and I am well aware of the time they dedicated to reading and improving the work.

The idea for this thesis was seeded at Rio+20 (Rio de Janeiro, June 2012) in the back seats of taxis with Rachel Kyte and Andrew Steer of the World Bank. They probably were not aware of it at the time but I hope I have done some justice to their wise council. Past and present colleagues of places like the World Bank, UNEP, UN-Habitat, GEF, IADB, ADB are some of the most dedicated and thoughtful professionals I have ever had the good fortune to work with. Again, I hope this work might help them in some small way.

Another close colleague who unfortunately is no longer around to provide his advice, good cheer, and effective red editing pen is John Bull. John was my boss in Guelph; a civil engineer who tried to teach me how to mix passion and professionalism, and why engineers cannot do this alone. John showed me how a civil engineer, when working with the community can be a powerful force for good. My father, the city engineer for Trenton from 1955 to 1992 also showed me the value of being civil. I also benefited from the advice and friendship of Heinz Unger, Hardy Wong and Bob Breeze, all excellent engineers.

My current colleagues at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT), Dean Brent Lewis and former Dean George Bereznai encouraged me to ‘hurry up and get a PhD.’ I appreciate their confidence, as well as the University’s support. I also appreciate former Provost Richard Marceau’s confidence and friendship.

At UOIT, Michelle Cholak helped with the preparation of this thesis, always with a smile and good cheer. Michelle also led preparation of the related Sustainability Today website hosted at UOIT. Kevin Pope, Ofelia Jianu, Azin Behdadi, and Mehdi Hosseini assisted with research. The best part about working at a university is the students. I am thankful when they show up to class, but I am terrified at the task in front of them: building cities and providing energy to 2.5 billion more people during their careers.

I am fortunate to be married to my best friend and confidante, who also happens to be a great editor. Jacquie encouraged me to stick to it on weekends and accommodated the papers strewn across the dining room table.

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Last, but never least, are the professionals and citizens who toil every day to design, build and manage our cities. The mayors, councilors, planners, engineers, receptionists, reporters, waste collectors, street sweepers, snow plow operators, accountants and the many people who run the world’s cities help us all. Cities are humanity’s greatest accomplishment and there is no work more important than the work of cities. Thank you all.

***

Several people assisted with the research associated with this work. The list of cities and their projection to 2100 was prepared with Kevin Pope (now at Memorial University). The concept was mine and the starting point for the list of cities was based on a World Bank paper Building Sustainability in an Urbanizing World (July, 2013) that I authored with Mila Freire with input from Bank staff and some 70 partners. The analysis of city population predictions in this thesis is found in Population Predictions of the 101 Largest Cities in the 21st Century, Global Cities Institute Working Paper 4 (Hoornweg and Pope, 2014). The full list of city populations in 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 (those expected to be above 5 million) is provided in Annex 3.

I also published a discussion of these city growth projections as Jumbo Shrimp: The Rise and Fall of American Cities in Corporate Knights, June, 2013.

Chapter 5 is a summary of a paper written jointly with Mehdi Hosseini, Azin Behdadi and Christopher Kennedy. The concept was mine. Mehdi completed much of the graphical representation and data collection.

Chapter 6 is a summary of two (possibly three) papers written jointly with Mehdi Hosseini, Azin Behdadi and Christopher Kennedy. The concept was mine. Azin and Mehdi completed much of the cost curve graphing and data collection.

The concept of city boundaries and sustainability cost curves was included in a background paper and discussed at a Global Environment Facility meeting August 2014 (I was a consultant to the GEF). The transportation sustainability cost curve (with rapid transit and electric vehicles) was further developed by myself and Mehdi Hosseini while at UOIT. We were retained by the Ontario Natural Gas Association to review transportation issues in southern Ontario. A supporting paper was published (April, 2015).

While at the World Bank Perinaz Bhada-Tata and I developed waste management projections which supported the concept of peak waste. With Christopher Kennedy we published a commentary Waste Must Peak this Century in Nature, October 2013. A more detailed paper Peak Waste: When Is It likely to Occur? was published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology July, 2014 (co-authored by the three of us). The methodology used to estimate waste generation by city is replicated for energy demand projections, available at the Sustainability Today website at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology.

The discussion on cities as complex systems, biomimicry, and the science of cities was assisted by a comprehensive examination question from Eric Miller, and his excellent CEM1004H course that I took in 2014. This work was also summarized in a paper I wrote for GDF Suez Biobuilding City Systems: Learning from Nature October, 2014.

Urban metabolism information discussed in this thesis for Amman, Buenos Aires, Cape Town, Dar es Salaam, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai is presented in the 2012 Barcelona Urban Research Symposium paper, Mainstreaming Urban Metabolism: Advances and challenges in city participation (I was lead author).

The discussion on engineers and sustainable development education is also included in Meeting the Infrastructure Challenges of African Cities presented at the November 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers Annual Conference. Also while preparing this thesis I contributed to, and edited the book, Letters to a Young Engineer. The book was distributed to about 5,000 graduating engineers across Canada.

Dedication

This thesis is dedicated to a few of the women in my life.

First, my wonderful wife Jacquie who makes me smile from the inside out and our two lovely daughters Kate and Shannon; my mother Maria, one continuous act of kindness; and my sisters Tina, Mary Ann and Judy, who taught me early, and Rena who tried a bit later. My spirited nieces and grandnieces, more than a dozen and still growing, as well as the five strong-willed (fortunately) women who married my nephews.

The pumulung woman in Semarang and the small hungry girl in Harare whose names (and lives) I will never know.

My female engineering students who I so hope increase in numbers.

Tomorrow’s girls, who if we can house, clothe, educate and treat with respect, will get us out of this mess.

My amazing bosses over the years – Mrs. Barker, Linda, Genie, Cecile, Phyllis, Laura, Zoubida, Frida, Marianne, Kathy, Inger, Pamela, Stephanie, Abha, and Rachel.

My many dedicated teachers; my impressive colleagues and their mix of intellect, compassion and dedication: Mila, Federica, Rumana, Lorraine, Judy, Artessa, Sally, Avril, Julianne, Natalie, Christa, Alexandra, Sangeeta, Gisela, JoAnne, Ellen, Soraya, Laura, Patricia, Xiaofeng, Adelaide, Jennifer, Michelle and many more.

And finally a few of the women I discovered a little more through this thesis: Fatima al-Firhi, Mary Wortley Montagu, Rachel Carson, Elinor Ostrom and a woman I never met, but I’m confident understood as well as anyone how we got here, and where we should go from here, Donella (Dana) Meadows.

Table of Contents

Page

Abstract ii Acknowledgements iii Dedication vi Table of Contents vii List of Tables x List of Figures xii List of Appendices xiv Abbreviations xv

Chapter 1 Searching for Sustainability 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 A Cities Perspective 4 1.2.1 Wealth and Equity 5 1.2.2 Environmental Degradation 5 1.2.3 Urbanization and Cities 6 1.2.4 Cities and Global Governance 7 1.2.5 Building Better Cities - The Role of Engineers 8 1.2.6 Cities Leading Sustainable Development Efforts 9 1.2.7 All Politics is Local 10 1.2.8 The ‘Boundary Issue’ 11 1.3 A Personal Perspective 12 1.4 An Engineering Perspective 20

Chapter 2 Sustainable Development – A Literature Review 25 2.1 Economic Development 26 2.2 The Need for Social and Environmental Development 28 2.3 The History of Sustainable Development 31 2.4 Material Flows 35 2.5 Challenges Ahead 37 2.6 Glimpses of Hope 38 2.7 The Role of Cities 41 2.8 Cities as Complex, Scalable Systems 43

Chapter 3 Institutional Landscape – View from the Cities 61

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3.1 Measuring Sustainability 61 3.2 International Agencies Working with Cities 72 3.3 The Role of Institutions 80 3.4 Engineers and Sustainable Development 82 3.4.1 World Association of Nuclear Operations - An Institutional Parallel? 84 3.4.2 Geoengineering - Emergence of a ‘Wicked Solution’? 86 3.5 Shifting Cities 87

Chapter 4 Cities Defining Sustainable Development 109 4.1 Structuring ‘The Deal’ 109 4.1.1 The Scope of Negotiations 112 4.1.2 A Metropolitan Approach 114 4.2 Why Cities? 115 4.2.1 Cities and the Growth in Global Wealth and Health 116 4.3 The ‘Future Fives’ 119 4.3.1 Starting with Larger Cities 121 4.4 Why 2050? 122 4.5 An Inclusive List of Cities 124 4.6 Developing within Global Limits 126 4.7 The Hierarchy of Sustainable Cities 130

Chapter 5 A Cities Approach to Physical and Socio-Economic Boundaries 134 5.1 Introduction 134 5.2 Objective and Methodology 136 5.3 Accessing City Data 138 5.4 Global Physical Limits 139 5.5 Moving from a Global Boundaries Approach to a Cities Perspective 141 5.6 Global Socio-Economic Limits 143 5.7 Results 148 5.7.1 Physical Science Indicators of Five World Cities 148 5.7.2 Socio-Economic Indicators of World’s Major Cities 154 5.8 Conclusion 158

Chapter 6 Development and Application of Sustainability Cost Curves 161 6.1 Introduction 161 6.2 Developing a Sustainability Cost Curve – Methodology 165 6.3 Applying the Concept to Toronto’s Transportation System 168

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6.4 Applying Sustainability Cost Curves across Cities 180 6.4.1 Dakar, Senegal 180 6.4.2 Mumbai, India 183 6.4.3 Sao Paulo, Brazil 187 6.4.4 Shanghai, China 189 6.5 Applying Sustainability Cost Curves in Other Sectors 193 6.6 Conclusion 194

Chapter 7 Comments on a City-Led Approach to Sustainable Development 197 7.1 Shortcomings of the Approach 201 7.2 Why Try? 203 7.3 Why Cities are Acting More Like Countries 205 7.4 Next Steps in a Cities Approach to Sustainability 208

Chapter 8 Conclusions and Path Forward 212 8.1 Research Contributions, Significant Findings 212 8.2 Summary and Recommendations 215 8.3 Possible Roles and Responsibilities 217 8.4 Future Research and Actions 219

Afterword – The Buenos Aires Accord 222 References 225

List of Tables

Page Table 2.1: Timeline of Sustainable Development (Emergence of Anthropocene) 48 Table 2.2: Schumpeter’s Waves of Innovation and Economic Activity (The Economist) 57 Table 3.1a: Sustainability Measurement and Tools - Prior to the Rio Earth Summit (1992) 90 Table 3.1b: Sustainability Measurement and Tools, 1992 – 2002; Rio to Rio+10 92 Table 3.1c: Sustainability Measurement and Tools, 2002 – 2012; Rio+10 to Rio+20 94 Table 3.1d: Sustainability Measurement and Tools - post-2012; after Rio+20 96 Table 4.1: The World’s Growing Wealth and Health 133 Table 4.2: World’s Largest Cities (Urban Areas) by Population (Millions) 133 Table 5.1: Physical Science Indicators, Global Average 141 Table 5.2: Global Social Science Indicators (Current Global Average Values compared to Target/Limit) 147 Table 5.3: Physical Science Indicators for the Five Example Cities, Scaled according to the Global Average 149 Table 5.4: Biodiversity Index (Aggregate Local and Global Impacts) 150 Table 5.5: Status of the World’s Major Cities – Socio-Economic Indicators compared to a Global Average Scale of 1 154 Table 6.1a: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors (1) – Toronto Transportation 176 Table 6.1b: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors (2) – Toronto Transportation 177 Table 6.1c: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors (3) – Toronto Transportation 178 Table 6.2: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors of Transportation Projects in Dakar 182 Table 6.3: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors for Mumbai Projects 185 Table 6.4: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors for Transportation Projects in Sao Paulo 188 Table 6.5: Shanghai Subway Network Data 189 Table 6.6: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors for Shanghai Transportation Projects 190 Table 6.7: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors for Toronto Energy and Basic Services Projects 195 Table 7.1: Strengths and Weaknesses of a Cities Approach to Sustainable Development 211

Appendices Table A1: Cities with Populations Greater than 5 Million (WUP Extrapolations) 282

Table A2: Cities with Population Projections above 5 Million in 2050 286 Table A3: Cities with Population Projections above 5 Million in 2100 289

Table A4: Cities with Populations above 5 Million in 2006 293 Table A5: 2050 World Urban Population Projections for Cities above 5 Million – The ‘Future Fives’ 294 Table A6: The ‘Future Fives’ 2050 296 Table A7: 2100 World Urban Population Projections for Cities above 5 Million – The ‘Future Fives’ 297 Table A8: The ‘Future Fives’ 2100 299 Table A9: Physical Science Indicators for Toronto, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Mumbai, and Dakar 304 Table A10: Socio-Economic Indicators for Toronto, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Mumbai, and Dakar 305 Table A11: Physical Science Indicators (1) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 308 Table A12: Physical Science Indicators (2) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 309 Table A13: Physical Science Indicators (3) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 310 Table A14: Physical Science Indicators (4) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 311 Table A15: Physical Science Indicators (5) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 312 Table A16: Socio-Economic Indicators (1) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 313 Table A17: Socio-Economic Indicators (2) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 314 Table A18: Socio-Economic Indicators (3) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 315 Table A19: Socio-Economic Indicators (4) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 316 Table A20: Socio-Economic Indicators (5) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 317 Table A21: Socio-Economic Indicators (6) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 318 Table A22: Socio-Economic Indicators (7) – Transportation Projects of Toronto 319 Table A23: Physical Science Indicators – Shanghai 323 Table A24: Physical Science Indicators – Sao Paulo 324 Table A25: Physical Science Indicators – Mumbai 325 Table A26: Physical Science Indicators – Dakar 326 Table A27: Socio-Economic Indicators – Shanghai 327 Table A28: Socio-Economic Indicators – Sao Paulo 328 Table A29: Socio-Economic Indicators – Mumbai 329 Table A30: Socio-Economic Indicators – Dakar 330 Table A31: Physical Science Indicators – Energy and Basic Services Projects of Toronto 331 Table A32: Socio-Economic Indicators – Energy Projects of Toronto 332 Table A33: Socio-Economic Indicators – Basic Services Projects of Toronto 333

List of Figures

Page Figure 1.1: A Cities Approach to Sustainability – Thesis Flowchart 4 Figure 2.1: Historical Temperature of Planet Earth from Cambrian to Present 58 Figure 2.2: Total Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Figure 2 in Bajželj et al, 2013) 59 Figure 2.3: A History of World GDP (The Economist) 60 Figure 2.4: Estimated Global Infrastructure Finance Requirements 2013-2030 (The Economist) 60 Figure 3.1: The World’s Shifting Cities – By Region; Cities with Populations above 5 million in 2006, 2050, 2100 97 Figure 3.2: The Struggle to Govern the Commons (Fig 3 Dietz et al, 2003) 98 Figure 3.3: The Changing Landscape of Corporate Sustainability Leadership since 1997 (GlobeScan/SustainAbility) 99 Figure 3.4a: Engineering for Sustainable Development: Guiding Principles 100 Figure 3.4b: Engineering for Sustainable Development: Guiding Principles 101 Figure 3.5: Humanity’s Unsustainable Environmental Footprint 102 Figure 3.6: ‘Circles of Sustainability’ 103 Figure 3.7: World Business Council for Sustainable Development and United Nations Human Development Index, Vision 2050 104 Figure 3.8: ASPIRE | A Sustainability Poverty and Infrastructure Routine for Evaluation 105 Figure 3.9: 2014 Environmental Performance Index, Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, Yale University, and Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University 106 Figure 3.10: Predicted Rise of the 101 Largest Cities in 2100 (WUP Extrapolation) 107 Figure 3.11: Predicted Change of the 101 Largest Cities in 2010 (WUP Extrapolation) 108 Figure 4.1: Hierarchy Model for Building a Sustainable City 132 Figure 5.1: Physical Science Indicators for the World, Compared to the Boundaries Proposed by Rockstrom et al (2009) 139 Figure 5.2: Physical Science Boundaries for Cities in a Global Context (Aggregate Estimates) 140 Figure 5.3: Socio-Economic Limits: Global Situation Compared to Targets 144 Figure 5.4-a: Physical Science: Toronto vs. Global Condition 151 Figure 5.4-b: Physical Science: Sao Paulo vs. Global Condition 151 Figure 5.4-c: Physical Science: Shanghai vs. Global Condition 152 Figure 5.4-d: Physical Science: Mumbai vs. Global Condition 153 Figure 5.4-e: Physical Science: Dakar vs. Global Condition 153 Figure 5.5-a: Socio-Economic: Toronto vs. Global Condition 155

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Figure 5.5-b: Socio-Economic: Sao Paulo vs. Global Condition 156 Figure 5.5-c: Socio-Economic: Shanghai vs. Global Condition 156 Figure 5.5-d: Socio-Economic: Mumbai vs. Global Condition 157 Figure 5.5-e: Socio-Economic: Dakar vs. Global Condition 157 Figure 5.6: Safe and Just Operating Spaces for Regional Social-Ecological Systems 159 Figure 5.7: Safe and Just Operating Spaces for Regional Social-Ecological Systems 160 Figure 6.1: Marginal Abatement Cost Curve - Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction (McKinsey, 2010) 162 Figure 6.2: Adaption Cost Curve - State of Florida (Creyts et al, 2007) 163 Figure 6.3: Summary of Cost-effectiveness and CO2 Reduction Potentials in US Regions, reported by Hartgen et al, (2011) 164 Figure 6.4: Possible Transportation Projects in Toronto (Metrolinx) 170 Figure 6.5: Sustainability Cost Curve (Transportation - Toronto) 179 Figure 6.6: Sustainability Cost Curve (Transportation – Dakar) 182 Figure 6.7: Sustainability Cost Curve (Transportation – Mumbai) 185 Figure 6.8: Sustainability Cost Curve (Transportation – Sao Paulo) 188 Figure 6.9: Sustainability Cost Curve (Transportation – Shanghai) 191 Figure 6.10 Sustainability Cost Curve - Transportation Projects in Five Major Cities 192 Figure 6.11: Sustainability Cost Curve - Toronto Aggregated Projects: Transportation, Energy, Basic Services 196

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List of Appendices

Page Appendix 1 Searching for Sustainability. A Few Personal Vignettes in the Search for Sustainable Development 252 Appendix 2 Additional City Partners 278 Appendix 3 Population Projections of the World’s Largest Cities this Century 282 Appendix 4 World Urban Population Projections for Cities above 5 Million - The ‘Future Fives’ 293 Appendix 5 Characteristics of Complex Systems 300 Appendix 6 Elinor Ostrom, June 12, 2012 – Green from the Grassroots 301 Appendix 7 Why a City’s Not a Country 303 Appendix 8 Physical Science and Socio-Economic Indicators for Toronto, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Mumbai, and Dakar 304 Appendix 9 Equations 306 Appendix 10 Changes in Physical and Socio-Economic Indicators due to the Proposed Transportation Plans - Toronto 308 Appendix 11 Changes in Physical and Socio-Economic Indicators due to the Proposed Transportation Plans - Shanghai, Sao Paulo, Mumbai, and Dakar 323 Appendix 12 Energy and Basic Services Projects of Toronto 331

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Abbreviations

ADB Asian Development Bank AFR Africa Region AfDB Africa Development Bank BOD Biological oxygen demand BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa country grouping C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group CAF Development Bank of Latin America CCREM Canadian Council of Resource and Environment Ministers CDM Clean Development Mechanism CIDA Canadian International Development Agency CITES Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora C&D Construction and demolition CNG Compressed natural gas COD Chemical oxygen demand COP Conference of the Parties (with IPCC) DALY Disability-adjusted life year DFID Department for International Development (Government of the UK) DNA Deoxyribonucleic acid EAP East Asia and Pacific region EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ECA Europe and Central Asia region ESI Environmental Sustainability Index FAO Food and Agriculture Organization (of the UN) FDIC International Federation of Consulting Engineers G8 ‘Club’ of 8 large-economy countries GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GCI-C, S Global City Indicator - Core (C) and Supporting (S) GCIF Global Cities Institute Facility GDP Gross domestic product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse gas GIS Geographic information systems GNP Gross national product (GNI – gross national income) GTA Greater Toronto Area GTHA Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area HIC High-income country IADB Inter-American Development Bank IAEA International Atomic Energy Association IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICLEI International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (now ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability) ICT Information and communications technology IDA International Development Agency

IEA International Energy Association IFI International ﬁnancial institution IFC International Finance Corporation IISD International Institute of Sustainable Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISO International Organization for Standardization ISWM Integrated solid waste management IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature LIC Low-income country LMIC Lower middle-income country LCR Latin America and Caribbean region LCA Life-cycle assessment MDB Multilateral development bank MDG Millennium development goals MENA Middle East and North Africa region MMR Mumbai metropolitan area MSW Municipal solid waste NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization ND-GAIN Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PAHO Pan-American Health Organization PRA Probabilistic Risk Assessment RIDM Risk Informed Decision Making SAR South Asia region SDG Sustainable development goals SPMR Sao Paulo metropolitan region SSP Shared socio-economic pathways TBD To be determined UCLG United Cities and Local Governments UEA Urban Environmental Accords UII Urban Infrastructure Initiative UMIC Upper middle-income country UN United Nations UNCED UN Conference on Environment and Development, Rio de Janeiro, June 2-14, 1992 UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme UOIT University of Ontario Institute of Technology USGBC U.S. Green Building Council WANO World Association of Nuclear Operators WBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable Development WBG World Bank Group WCCD World Council on City Data WCED World Commission on Environment and Development

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WEF World Economic Forum WFEO World Federation of Engineering Organizations WRI World Resources Institute WTO World Trade Organization WUP World Urbanization Prospect WWF World Wildlife Fund, name changed to World Wide Fund for Nature (1986), US and Canada maintain original name

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Chapter 1: Searching for Sustainability

1.1 Introduction

Suppose a group of engineers, perhaps Civil Engineers, were asked to advise a rich patron, a government, a powerful agency, or maybe a corporation, to ‘suggest an effective way to help move humanity toward sustainable development.’ Maybe Jim Kim and Ban Ki Moon had an engineer-friend over for dinner, turned to her and said ‘we could use your help.’ How should the engineering profession respond? How could such a ‘big deal’ be defined, negotiated, and monitored1?

This thesis provides a response to the question of how we might achieve sustainability, and from that sustainable development. An engineering, or applied science (physical and social) approach, integrated within a multi-stakeholder partnership, is proposed. Only a partial, or ‘shadow agreement’ is proposed, but hopefully this would serve as the start of a global process that leads to comprehensive sustainable development.

The process for a planetary ‘deal’ proposed in this thesis involves the world’s largest cities. An argument is made why cities are the most likely actors to design and bring about such an agreement. An agreement among those metro areas with five million or more residents by 2050 (about 120 ‘Future Five’ cities) is possible, and is likely a necessary, but not sufficient condition to achieve sustainable development. Each city is viewed as a unique system as well as collectively within a ‘system-of-systems,’ and more broadly within local and global ecosystems and economies.

1 To date these global negotiations are best illustrated through the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992, which resulted in ‘Agenda 21’ (Local Agenda 21 for local governments), and subsequent Rio+5, Rio+10 and Rio+20 conferences. The Rio+20 meeting in June 2012 provided an outcome document “The Future We Want” negotiated between 180 participating nations. Similar global accords are reflected in the Millennium Development Goals (signed September 2000, with a target completion date of 2015) and the Sustainable Development Goals to be reviewed November 2014. The UN’s IPCCC efforts to negotiate a climate change accord grew out of the 1992 UNCED conference. Arguably these efforts have yielded minimal durable and comprehensive attainment of the necessary conditions for sustainable development. Rio+20, the biggest UN event ever organized (with some 45,000 participants), was widely derided for achieving little in tangible commitments toward sustainable development. This thesis has its genesis in the author’s attendance as a World Bank delegate at Rio+20 in 2012.

Chapter 1 suggests a perspective of sustainability from three viewpoints: a cities, a personal, and an engineering perspective. The personal perspective is expanded in Appendix 1 with a few vignettes in ‘searching for sustainability’. This thesis argues that sustainable development is possible, and will need to grow from the grassroots up. Beginning with individuals, working together in institutions, professions, and cities. Larger cities especially, as they combine and focus the energy and wishes of their residents, are the most important agents to bring about sustainability.

Chapter 2 provides a brief literature review of sustainable development, with a particular focus on cities perspective. Table 2.1 outlines a timeline of sustainable development and the emergence of the Anthropocene. Chapter 3 discusses the institutional landscape, a view from the cities. Table 3.1 describes the fifty-plus year history of sustainability metrics and tools.

Chapter 4 suggests why an engineering, or applied/incremental approach may provide the best opportunity for the world to reach sustainable development. Why cities with their pragmatism and focus on sustainability need to lead this effort is expounded, and why cities with 5 million or more residents by 2050 should be prioritized for inclusion in global programs. A definition of sustainable development is provided, with suggestions for metrics to monitor progress. A methodology to move us toward sustainable development is provided. This is seen as an ongoing process rather than a one-off treaty or agreement. A new sustainability cost curve to 2050 is introduced and its criticality argued for potential negotiations.

Chapter 5 develops a cities approach to physical and socio-economic boundaries. The approach enables cities to understand and track their position relative to local and global economies and ecosystems. Similar to how cities measure GHG emissions, the approach facilitates down-scaling of global metrics and aggregating city-level efforts in areas such as biodiversity impacts, water and land use.

Chapter 6 provides a sustainability cost curve for Toronto, plus partial cost curves for Dakar, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai (all are ‘Future Five’ cities). Eventually, three sustainability cost curves are anticipated for each participating city: (i) transportation and connectivity; (ii) energy; (iii) basic services, i.e. water, wastewater, solid waste, storm water drainage, plus a compilation of the three.

Prerequisite data sets and indicators for the world’s larger cities are provided including a host website ‘Sustainability Today’ at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT).

Chapter 7 postulates a tentative agreement that could get the world on a path toward sustainable development. A hypothetical global negotiating approach, with suggestions on laying the ground-work with critical agencies, so that if requested, a detailed proposal for city-led negotiations could be developed.

Countries will continue to negotiate international agreements, e.g. trade agreements, Rio+30 and COP25+. This city-centric effort would not supplant those efforts. Rather, cities with their unique characteristics of immobility, system dynamics, and role as economic drivers and crucibles of culture, offer an alternative approach to negotiating global agreements. By focusing at the city-scale, issues become clearer and a more pragmatic road map to sustainability emerges.

This thesis argues that a practical methodology to define sustainable development, and move the world’s largest cities toward that goal is possible, and urgently needed. A systems approach is taken, where a significant part of the overall system (the world’s largest cities) is analyzed. In any possible future sustainable development agreement cities must be engaged in a meaningful and monitorable way. By introducing sustainability into this limited system, the belief is that this could be sufficiently comprehensive to eventually bring about sustainability in overall global systems. The challenge facing humanity for the next 35 years is enormous. Everything we have done to this point pales in scale. However when work is at hand, every carpenter, and engineer, knows that having the right tools is one of best indicators of success. This thesis proposes tools that might just build a more durable, equitable and sustainable society.

The first part of the thesis (Chapters 2 and 3) discusses the history of sustainable development and the role of cities and the drivers of urbanization. Wealth, material flows, metrics, tools, and local and global trends, all underpin the emergence and impact of sustainable development.

The second part of the thesis: provides a means to define cities (the Future Fives) and a credible starting point (the hierarchy of sustainable cities, and Hoornweg and Pope (2014) population projections); suggests a sustainability planning horizon (2050); and provides two new urban planning tools: downscaled city-based boundaries and limits (physical and socio-economic), and

sustainability cost curves. The methodology is tested on 5 cities and could readily be replicated for the world’s larger cities (those with 5 million or more residents by 2050). With sufficient and ongoing support the tools and hierarchy approach can provide a powerful driver of sustainability.

The objective of this thesis and the research contained herein is to provide a methodology to enhance the sustainability of long-lived urban infrastructure. This key infrastructure can form the ‘bones’ of sustainable cities. The methodology of ‘focusing on the bones’, when applied to the world’s larger cities can also underpin a global agreement on sustainable development.

Figure 1.1: A Cities Approach to Sustainability – Thesis Flowchart

Boundaries & Sustainability Moving to Defining Cities Limits Cost Curves Sustainability

• Hierarchy of • Rockstrom et al. • 'Vision 2050' • Data scan for all sustainable city physical limits - a city • Discount rate initially 'Future Fives' • 'Future Fives' perspective zero • Institutional support (population projections) • SDGs at the city level • E.g., Dakar, Mumbai, • 'Open source' iterative • A systems approach • E.g., Dakar, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, • E.g., 'WANO for cities' • System boundaries Sao Paulo, Shanghai, and Toronto • Role of engineers and Toronto (metro area) • Project's impact on • Applying the tools • 14 sustainability sustainability objectives • Institutions working • Assists in prioritizing objectives (7 physical, 7 with cities • Facilitates 'green infrastructure finance socio-economic) finance' (and better capture of benefits)

1.2 A Cities Perspective

From a cursory perspective sustainable development is easy to define – development that meets the needs of today without limiting the ability of tomorrow’s generations to meet their own needs. This implies a measure of equity to future generations. But sustainable development is more complicated than this, or certainly more difficult to achieve than such a short definition seems to imply.

Sustainable development is the nexus of wealth generation, economy, equity, environmental degradation, urbanization, well-being, culture, creativity, and local and global governance. To a large extent sustainable development is driven by cities; the way they are built and managed, and

the way people live in them. Civil engineers, along with planners, therefore have a critical role to play in building better cities, which in turn move us toward sustainable development.

1.2.1 Wealth and Equity

Beginning around 1800 the world has undergone an unprecedented increase in wealth. In just 200 years wealth increased from about $200 per capita (with less than 1 billion people and an average life expectancy of around 40 years) to more than $6500 per capita today (with more than 7 billion people and an average life expectancy of 78 years). This massive growth in wealth however has not been uniform, and not without cost.

Last year people living in the Democratic Republic of Congo had an average income of $220. For the entire year – less than a dollar per day for more than 60 million people. Meanwhile in Bermuda, residents made about $107,000. Bermuda may be an anomaly with just 60,000 residents, however Norway with 5 million citizens had a per capita income last year of almost $100,000.

In 2014 there were 1,645 billionaires with a combined wealth of $6.4 trillion (about $4 billion each). The 85 richest people alone have more wealth than the poorest half of the world’s population combined. The wealth of the world’s richest one percent of population is about $110 trillion (or 65 times the world’s poorest half of the population – more than 3.5 billion people).2

1.2.2 Environmental Degradation

At the start of the Industrial Revolution the atmospheric concentration of CO2 was about 280 ppm, roughly the same value for 11,000 years during the Holocene, and the end of the last

glaciation. Last year atmospheric CO2 concentrations surpassed 400 ppm for the first time in the last 600,000 years; they are increasing by more than 2 ppm per year and are not likely to plateau before reaching 500 ppm. Humanity should plan for a 4o C warming this century (see World

2 Billionaires list from Forbes magazine (July, 2014). Wealth of richest 1% from Oxfam, 2014. Two measures of wealth are used (and often inter-changed) income and retained assets. Income tends to be more easily measured and is particularly relevant for the poorest. Retained wealth tends to provide a better measure for the wealthy as land values (and other retained capital) are particularly important measures for urban residents (where land values are a significant driver of local economies).

Bank, ‘Turn Down the Heat’, 2014). Massive planetary changes will be associated with this climate perturbation.

Many school children around the world can recount the loss of passenger pigeons, buffalo, rhinos, tigers and whales. The loss of biodiversity is the greatest threat to the planet and humanity. Rockstrom et al (2009) call for a biodiversity loss not to exceed an extinction rate of 10 species per million species per year (the current rate of extinction exceeds 100 species; pre- industrial loss rates were 0.01-1 per million species per year).

Localized pollution, especially in cities, was a constant condition during the last two centuries. Cholera, smog, waste dumps, hazardous waste sites, destruction of local waterways, as well as thalidomide and lead poisoning, are by-products of industrialization and its associated increase in wealth.

1.2.3 Urbanization and Cities

Inextricably linked with industrialization and wealth is urbanization and the growth of cities. The pace of urbanization world-wide is still increasing (in concert with increased resource consumption and pollution such as GHG emissions). In 1800, the world was about five percent urban. In 1900 urbanization was increasing quickly in most industrialized countries, yet the world was still less than 15 percent urbanized. In 2008 the world passed the 50 percent urban mark, and the pace of urbanization is still increasing.

In 1950 there was only one city with more than 10 million population (New York). Today there are 27 ‘megacities,’ and in 2050 when most of Asia will have urbanized there will likely be 50 or more cities with at least 10 million people. The last wave of urbanization will be in Africa. By the end of this century, 17 of the world’s 25 largest cities will be in Africa, each with more than 25 million residents, and the world’s three largest cities, Lagos, Kinshasa and Dar es Salaam each with more than 70 million.

Urbanization and cities present a paradox. On one hand, urbanization and its associated increase in wealth is the main driver of local and global environmental degradation. For example, if

including Scopes 1, 2 and 33, cities, or better stated, the people living in cities, are responsible for more than 80 percent of global GHG emissions (Hoornweg et al, 2011). However, on the other hand, well-designed and managed cities provide the highest quality of life for least amount of resource consumption. Sustainability in the latter half of this century is much more likely if cities grow even larger and urbanization proceeds faster in the next few decades (Hoornweg and Pope, 2014).

Cities are complex adaptive systems that often exhibit attributes more akin to natural ecosystems. Like animate entities – a mouse or a whale for example – cities adhere to scaling laws. If the ‘demons of density’ can be overcome, e.g. traffic, pollution, and crime, cities would naturally evolve to larger conurbations as greater economy can be delivered with fewer resources. Flow in cities also follows nature’s evolved hierarchies. People flowing through a street, for example, have an uncanny resemblance to streams, fish and birds.

1.2.4 Cities and Global Governance

States and nations are mostly a political, cultural or ethnic construct. The rise of today’s collection of states can be traced to the Treaty of Westphalia (1648). Less than a quarter of today’s some-200 countries existed with their current boundaries and governance structures a hundred years ago. Yet every one of the world’s largest cities has been continuously inhabited for more than 200 years. Cities being immobile are largely defined by geography, trade, and the flow of resources.

Canada provides an interesting perspective on the relative roles of cities and countries in global and regional geopolitics. In 1867 when Canada was created through the British North America Act more than 80 percent of Canada’s population of 3.6 million was rural. In distributing constitutional powers provinces were seen as key, mainly for resource development and protection of territorial borders. With heavy losses in the First World War and growing industrialization, Canada surpassed the 50 percent urban mark in 1921 (one of the earliest in OECD-member countries to reach this milestone). Montreal was the largest city in Canada up

3 See Chapter 5 for a discussion of Scopes 1 (local), 2 (directly imported) and 3 (embodied) emissions.

until 1970 when it was surpassed by Toronto due to benefits of the Auto Pact and separatist frictions in Quebec.

Canadian cities played important roles in developing international associations. Metropolis was first headquartered in Montreal (1985); so too ICLEI in Toronto (1990). Vancouver hosted the first Habitat Conference (1976) and Greenpeace started in Vancouver (1971). Toronto also served as Chair for the C40 from 2008 to 2010, and now hosts the Global City Indicators Facility and World Council on City Data. Canadian cities consistently score high on livability compared to international peers, e.g. Economist Intelligence Unit and Mercer Consultancy.

Despite Canada’s international reputation as a global resource supplier, Canadian cities contribute an unduly large share of the Country’s GDP (about 80%)4. The relatively small constitutional role for Canadian cities and few local finance tools are a source of consternation for municipal representatives.

City representatives often feel short shrift in political power vis a vis their national (and regional) representatives. Many countries provide disproportionality large influence to rural voters and governments. Much of this has to do with the organic (apolitical) development of cities. Large cities are also almost always divided into many local jurisdictions. In countries like Australia, Brazil and Canada, this was purposeful. Cities were sub-divided to help ensure that their political power did not exceed their regional and national counterparts (moving the capitals away from Sydney, Rio de Janeiro and Montreal or Toronto highlights this well).

1.2.5 Building Better Cities – The Role of Engineers

Large-scale long-lived urban infrastructure (civil works) often acts as the ‘bones’ of a city, locking in urban form and much of a city’s metabolism. London’s tube (1863), San Francisco’s Golden Gate Bridge (1933), and Rome’s street alignment illustrate this well. Associated key infrastructure also establishes the prowess of cities, e.g. the Erie Canal and New York City, Changi Airport and Singapore, and Montreal and the St. Lawrence Seaway.

4 Mining and resource extraction is less than 10% and agriculture less than 5% of Canada’s GDP; Statistics Canada, 2014 (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/gdps04a-eng.htm).

As early as 1771 John Smeaton self-declared himself a ‘civil engineer’ wanting to differentiate his work from the more common military engineer. Since then civil engineers have had an enormous influence on the shape of cities and the way cities use resources. Recognizing this influence, engineers have attempted to quantify impacts. Poveda and Lipsett (2014) outline more than 600 existing approaches to sustainability assessment (mainly for buildings and urban infrastructure projects).

Engineers are well-versed in the application of a factor of safety to their designs. This thesis proposes a similar process in the design and application of a factor of sustainability. The aggregate impact of infrastructure projects is measured as it relates to sustainability for that specific city and globally (proposed for world’s largest, or ‘Future Five’ cities with expected populations of 5 million or more by 2050). Sustainability cost curves, similar to environmental assessments, are proposed for all large-scale infrastructure projects.

1.2.6 Cities Leading Sustainable Development Efforts

Today’s nations negotiating for collective agreements can be traced back to the unsuccessful League of Nations. The League was replaced by the United Nations, yet systemic challenges remain. The world’s 197 participants in the UNFCCC are disparate. Side arrangements such as the China-US agreement on GHG emission reductions, or G20 proposals, will continue to emerge. Countries can also opt out of an agreement. Another approach may be possible. Cities, which can be more pragmatic (non-mobile) and less political (the projection of power generally extends only to certainty of resource availability), can enter into ongoing ‘applied sustainability’ negotiations.

By selecting a target date, say 2050, cities can work collectively toward maximum future sustainability. This agreement would not be sufficient for global sustainable development, however it is arguably a pre-condition. The approach, based on applied science, and open-source metrics, is sufficiently robust to warrant consideration (and support from the engineering community, among others). This thesis provides the tools and framework to move the world’s largest cities toward sustainable development.

The city-based sustainable development ‘deal’ proposed in this thesis is less an agreement between participating cities than it is a proposed methodology for ongoing monitoring of urban

behavior (resource use, environmental impact, quality of life). The cities discussed in this thesis will likely outlive their respective countries, transnational agencies, and businesses. The sustainability of key local and planetary systems depends on cities collaborating and bringing along their citizens, agencies, countries and corporations.

1.2.7 All Politics is Local5

Elinor Ostrom (2012) echoed this sentiment when providing encouragement for Rio+20 when suggesting the success of sustainable development would be delivered through sustainable cities and their ability to “green from the grassroots” (Appendix 6). Similarly, Donella Meadows (2008), in discussing how to intervene in complex systems, reinforces the importance of local nodes (cities) and their criticality within the overall hierarchy (see Chapter 4).

This thesis argues that the city-system is the optimum unit of action for sustainable development with its confluence of personal and local passions and wishes, and criticality in all global systems.

Perhaps surprisingly there is no consensus on the boundaries of most of the world’s cities. As the key drivers of our economies and environmental degradation, a better understanding of cities is the paramount prerequisite of sustainable development. Countries negotiate sustainability agreements on behalf of their cities (the key nexus of wealth, population, pollution). However cities, especially the larger ones, are a patchwork of overlapping service and political boundaries not easily spoken for on behalf of their national governments. Cities are partitioned and aggregated along political imperatives and efficiency objectives.

The boundaries of twenty of the world’s 27 megacities largely correspond to a metropolitan government boundary (Kennedy et al, in publication), and with satellite imagery urban agglomerations can be reasonably well-defined (Angel et al, 2011). Populations of major urban agglomerations are merging toward consensus. For example the 2006 ‘largest cities and urban areas’ at citymayors.com provides a ranking of the 400 largest urban areas (by population). This list forms the basis of the World Bank’s 2013 ‘Building Sustainability in an Urbanizing World’

5 Term often attributed to Congressman Tip O’Neil’s All Politics is Local: And Other Rules of the Game, 1995.

and the starting point for the cities and their growth projections presented in this thesis (Hoornweg and Pope, 2014).

Permanence of habitation is usually well-defined for the world’s larger cities (at least 200 years at the sites of all cities) however the boundaries of cities, like countries, are largely ephemeral. So too the number of people living in a city – this also ebbs and flows with changes in demographics, economy, and local political pressures. Estimating future populations for larger cities (see Chapter 4) is increasingly difficult as many cities are coastal and with sea level rise and increased storm severity these cities may face inordinate pressures for migration out of the city.

As cities are even more dynamic than their host nations, ‘final’ boundaries or population estimates are impossible. This thesis recommends the emergence of annual (or every two years) publication of boundary and population estimates (and key materials flows and quality of life). Ideally publication of this information will be authorized by cities, however there are sufficient data sets to merge toward general consensus on these values.

1.2.8 The ‘Boundary Issue’

All of the world’s larger cities are challenged with the ‘boundary issue’ (except Singapore). City boundaries are as ephemeral and arbitrary as other political boundaries and most large urban areas are made up of numerous smaller local governments. Political dynamics often urge the amalgamation or separation of communities, while service efficiencies usually urge agglomeration of urban populations to enhance efficiencies. Bettencourt et al (2008) and Bettencourt and West (2010) further promote the agglomeration of urban areas with minimal effective borders as they show that cities scale super-linearly (~1.15) for economy, while they scale sub-linearly (~0.85) for infrastructure costs. In other words, if externalities associated with increased density, e.g. congestion, are addressed, doubling a city’s effective size more than doubles the economy and wealth generation, and does so for less than a doubling of infrastructure costs (and probably material flows).

Challenges of boundaries are exacerbated when service areas do not overlap. For example the power utility might have a different boundary than waste management, water (resource) supply, wastewater collection, and transportation services. As outlined in the hierarchy of sustainable

cities (Fig. 4.1) sustainability increases as cities are able to integrate and justify regional service provision. Kennedy et al (2015) highlight that 20 of the world’s 27 megacities are loosely aligned with a metropolitan boundary.

The boundary issue is not likely to disappear and service provision borders will regularly change, however as cities (urban areas) pursue greater sustainability better rationalization of boundaries should emerge. Similarly as cities assume a more assertive voice on global sustainability issues (especially risk management) they will be inclined to find a means to speak on behalf of the urban area. The key driver for this ‘common voice’ will probably be local residents as potential efficiencies are better known. Community dispersion will still occur, e.g. dominance of parochial issues, however as the costs are better understood some integration will likely be encouraged.

In this thesis key tools are developed for the urban areas (metros) as they are key for large sustainability gains in transportation, energy and waste disposal sectors. The urban area focus however reduces the effective influence mayors might have. However this is usually not an insurmountable problem for city sustainability as a systems approach (which favors the overall urban agglomeration) is a critical pre-condition for urban sustainable development.

1.3 A Personal Perspective

Everyone has a personal story of sustainability. How we weave these stories together, into community strands, city-strands, and hopefully a strong, inclusive and beautiful global tapestry, will define our success in bringing about sustainable development.

Similar to how the overweight man knows he should lose a few pounds; the smoker or heavy drinker knows moderation is key; or the man whose family life is crashing about his ears, fragility and incompleteness are part of life. This ‘frailty thy name is human’ is part of the foundation of all our lives, and our collective response to sustainability. Most people, most cities, most countries, know what needs to be done to make things more sustainable. Finding and nurturing the will, individually and collectively, is usually the main challenge to bring about greater sustainability.

The parents of a starving child, farmers facing yet another drought, slum dwellers flooded again, the rich aware of, and worried about keeping their good fortune: Everyone has a different

perspective on sustainability. Cities like Toronto, agencies like the World Bank, professions like engineering, are made up of individuals. Their historical perspective, as well as their individual and collective vision, their hopes for tomorrow, and especially their will to act is the foundation of sustainable development.

It was six men of Indostan To learning much inclined, Who went to see the Elephant (Though all of them were blind), That each by observation Might satisfy his mind - John Godfrey Saxe

Sustainable development comes in many forms and is often shaped by personal biases, circumstances, and fleeting glimpses of something big. The term is so over used it’s like responding ‘fine’ when asked how we’re doing even if we are anything but fine at the time. Answering ‘fine’ defers a serious discussion. As employees, as engineers, as parents and partners, we often say ‘fine’ and hope for the best.

However deep down, like that once-in-a-round well-hit golf shot, or the way we feel at our first kiss of true love, we know sustainable development when we see it, or feel it. At its core sustainable development is about equity and the pace of gratification.

To get to that larger place of sustainable communities and a sustainably hospitable planet, sustainable development must first come in some 8 billion individual shades of grey. Black and white certainty is rare. There is much me with subtle nuances and justifications in sustainability.

The following section is the author’s personal reflection on sustainability and sustainable development. First-person writing is usually frowned upon in a thesis. However your indulgence please as it is not common for a student to be born before 1971 (the maximum year on University of Toronto’s drop-down application menu). Perhaps a little background and context is warranted.

Any story – or thesis – of this length is a contract: Your time for my thoughts and research on sustainability. And as hard as we try we cannot completely take me (or you) out of the discussion. The following discussion on sustainability is biased by me. I am fortunate and have been offered various vantages to try to discern sustainability – middle class first-generation

Canadian, geologist, municipal, provincial and national government staff, World Bank ‘Young Professional’, professor, and engineer.

My search for sustainability began with smatterings of a few memorable moments, mostly environmental. Camping when I was a kid with my family most summers at Sandbanks Park on Lake Ontario (when the beach was cleaner and the park was called the Outlet). As kids we were oblivious to any sort of understanding of environmental cause and effect. My brother and I would whine when our father kept us from riding our bicycles in the thick cloud behind the Park’s truck as workers drove around spraying for mosquitoes in the calm of dusk. The other ‘lucky’ kids would weave in and out of the fog of water vapor, pesticides and diesel fuel. That of course was also the time of leaded gasoline, PCBs, and Agent Orange for the home garden.

Growing up in Trenton, Ontario, my brother, cousins, and I would catch fish at the mouth of the Trent River just a few hundred meters downstream of the Domtar plant, one of the largest point source polluters in Canada. A little farther downstream, the fishing at the effluent pipe of the cold storage food processing plant was particularly good, especially for sluggish carp that we sold to the Chinese Restaurant for 25 cents. We scoffed when the ‘Know Your Limits’ fish consumption restriction signs started going up in the 70s – we weren’t pregnant or nursing after all.

Later, a few breathtakingly beautiful places stick in my mind: the beaches of Bermuda, Hawaii, and the Greek Isles; hiking down to the base of the Grand Canyon; scuba diving on the Great Barrier Reef; the terraced rice paddies of Bali and Tana Toraja; seeing an elephant and giraffe in the wild; Alaska’s ruggedness; the cherry blossoms of Washington; standing on the edge of Yasur Volcano on Tana Island in Vanuatu; the enormity of Sitka spruce, hemlock and cedars on the Queen Charlotte Islands (now Haida Gwai); Banff, Jasper, Yoho and Kootney Rocky Mountain Parks; being serenaded by wolves in Wood Buffalo National Park; and seeing a moose on my first canoe trip in Algonquin Park.

So too a few memorable performances by humans: the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel; the Beat Retreat in Hamilton, Bermuda; Rembrandt’s Night Watch and the love and light in the portrait of his wife Saskia; my only visit to the Vienna Opera House; Machu Pichu; Cirque du Soleil; Van Gogh’s Sunflowers and Blue Irises; the Taj Mahal; and a café break in Milan or Paris.

A powerful catalyst that still makes me think about environmental management was driving up for my first co-op work term at Red Lake, a gold mining town in Northern Ontario. My colleague Kirk and I were driving at least 90 kilometers an hour with the windows closed when we crossed the Wabigoon River. We gagged on the stink. Amazed, we had to check it out, so we quickly parked the Suburban on the side of the road and clambered down to the river’s edge. We were at least 40 kilometers downstream from the Dryden pulp mill and still the river was black and viscous as it tumbled over a beautiful large waterfall. The stench was overpowering. I tossed a rock on the white foam of an eddy and the rock just stayed there. Surely this was wrong; uncertainty with a smidge of anger was seeded in my mind.

A couple work terms later in the summer of 1984 I was floating on Lake Erie drill rigs developing natural gas wells as the government’s safety rep. After some 20 – 30 hours of aimlessly waiting I would lean over the side of the rig, usually in the middle of the night, to verify that the telltale white clouds of cement were in the water. The excess cement would signify that the casing in the fracked well should be fully cemented into bedrock.

That summer I ate very well, ‘learned about Africa’ as I read every published Wilbur Smith book, and watched General Hospital and Ryan’s Hope with the off-duty drill-hands. Horizontal drilling wasn’t common back then and fracking was fairly tame compared to today’s more aggressive methods, but I still wondered why the US side of the Lake wasn’t being developed because of environmental concerns, while the Canadian side had third-year student inspectors.

Prior to working on Lake Erie I spent two co-op work terms for the Ontario Geological Survey driving around Southwest Ontario managing exploratory boreholes, including one at the base of the Don Valley Brickyard quarry in the middle of Toronto. The Government wanted to determine the potential energy reserves in the province’s underlying oil shale. The world’s oil rush can be traced largely to Southern Ontario where the first commercial oil well was developed in Oil Springs in 1858, a full year before the more famous Titusville, PN oil well.

I graduated a geotechnical engineer, and got lucky – a job in Alberta’s oilfields. Living in Alberta is useful for every Canadian, especially one from central Canada. Even a country as seemingly homogenous as Canada has intense regional differences. The location of your vantage point changes the view significantly.

Working in the oilfields allowed me to pay off my student loans, and I loved the freedom of the two weeks on - one week off, work schedule. In a week off you could see a lot of wilderness and the Rocky Mountains surely have to be one of the most beautiful places on earth. But I was uneasy. There are few sectors more rapacious than the resource industry.

This is where the story can veer off in several directions. Simply by using the word ‘rapacious’ to describe the oil and gas industry you the reader have a signpost on my attitudes. Will this sustainability discussion be an environmental rant you may wonder? Or will I backtrack admitting I knew full well how the gasoline in my car that took me to all those wondrous wilderness hikes came from that same oil industry. Herein lays the challenge of sustainable development and its shades of grey. Our circumstances shape our sense of sustainability.

Sustainable development is supposed to be like a stable three-legged stool with balanced weighting between social, economic, and environmental considerations. After more than thirty years of thinking and searching for sustainability, and working with some of the world’s best engineers, social scientists, economists and environmentalists, I feel no closer to durable solutions. I do know that the best answers and activities are those that are developed locally and take root in an organic way, although, so far, rarely do they grow tall enough to change the landscape.

***

Some of the most powerful social drivers to shape my version of sustainability are chance encounters. For example with perhaps the most beautiful woman I’ve ever seen, and two of the most pathetic children.

The woman was a pumulung, a waste picker, at the garbage dump in Semarang, Indonesia. This was my first trip to Indonesia. I was still reeling at the things I was seeing: The poverty, the environmental degradation, the needs, and the amazing hospitality and good nature of Indonesians. The garbage dump, several hectares in extent, was covered in acrid smoke from the constant fires. There were a few cows and hundreds of pumulung scratching through the detritus hoping to find enough of value to keep going for another day or two. I had scrambled to the bottom of the steep hill to look for leachate, the contaminated water flowing out of the base of

the hill (there was a lot of it) and was climbing back up to my waiting colleagues. There she was. We both emerged from our own little clouds of smoke, with about as disparate backgrounds as any two people could ever have. We both smiled. She had perfect white teeth. She was gorgeous despite being dressed in rags, filthy and likely harboring a few debilitating viruses and parasites. She responded with a laugh and a gracious smile to my limited selemat pagi. And then just as quickly she was gone. How could she be so beautiful, and what seemed to be so happy, I wondered. And how on earth could I help her; if indeed that was my job. My colleagues teased me when I told them of my sighting. My hutu sampah (garbage ghost, or angel) they joked, but every now and then I wonder where she is now.

Two children that introduced me to sustainable development were continents apart but bound together by their fierce determination and instinct to survive.

I knew nothing about international travel, or development for that matter, when I joined the World Bank. I was just a garbage man, familiar with local government and the provision of basic urban services in rich countries. Here I was on my first big trip, in Harare, Zimbabwe, with a day to sightsee before my boss arrived. I wandered around the city checking out the Lonely Planet’s suggested stops. Things were fairly quiet as I walked through the main market since it was a Sunday. I had fended off most of the touts and beggars, but there was one cute little girl, maybe 4 or 5 years old. She had followed me a good 10 minutes. Every now and then banging me with her plastic bowl and pointing to her mouth and gaunt stomach. I hadn’t been able to change money at the hotel (and it was before globally-ubiquitous ATMs). The smallest bill I had was a US $20. I was so close to giving her the bill; she was so cute, so insistent.

When telling my boss, the story the next day she stopped me with an intense look when I mentioned the girl and the $20 bill. “You didn’t give her the money?” She interrupted. I shook my head, and she sighed. “Twenty dollars is enough to get a girl that young killed. A few people were probably watching for what you might give her.”

The second child was about the same age as the little girl in Zimbabwe; maybe a year or two older. A boy in Delhi, India, begging for money between cars stopped at a traffic light. His legs were horribly mangled, sticking out at unnatural angles: He would never walk. He weaved in and out of traffic on a homemade makeshift board with small wheels, pushing along with his broken

and blackened hands. “Wow, that’s sad,” I commented to my companion Kapil, as we watched the determined boy pass by the stopped cars, barely visible through the exhaust.

“What’s even sadder,” Kapil offered, “Is that he probably wasn’t born that way. His parents – not knowing what else to do – did that to his legs so he would be pathetic enough to beg.”

The Monday morning of that same first trip to Harare, my boss and I took a taxi to the World Bank office. When the driver dropped us off he was unable to provide change for a $20. The fare was about $2. We had been unable to get local currency at the hotel and the smallest bill each of us had was still a $20. The driver became more and more agitated as Cecile chastised the guy for not having change and telling him he would have to come to the hotel later in the day to get paid. As the situation deteriorated I finally gave the insistent driver a $20 bill and asked him to deliver the change to the hotel later. Cecile admonished me saying I’d never see that money and my actions only encouraged the driver not to have change the next time. Later that day though a well-worn envelope was pushed under my hotel room door: in it were two $5 and eight $1 bills.

***

Working at the World Bank is one of the best places to learn about economics, the next leg of our sustainability stool. For example when visiting Cirebon, a modest sized Javanese city of a few million people, about 200 kilometers east of Jakarta. This was the first time I was a team leader. We were developing a large loan in what was traditionally Asian Development Bank ‘territory’, mostly for water supply and low-income neighborhood improvements. On the first day of the trip we met people in one of the fishing communities, or kampungs. ‘What are your biggest concerns and thoughts about the community’, we asked. The sea was just a few hundred meters away, the smell of rotting fish and wastewater intense. A man holding a crying baby – a rare sight in Indonesia – stood in the background. Someone in the crowd pointed to him and indignantly complained about local crime. A thief had apparently stolen his fishing boat earlier that week. One of the government officials with us asked the man to come forward. The man sheepishly told us his story, while his neighbors nodded their heads in agreement and interjected at particularly poignant spots.

With every effort to hold back tears he told us that the crying baby’s mother, his wife, had left a couple weeks ago to work as a maid in Saudi Arabia. He wouldn’t see her for at least a year. His boat had been stolen a few days after she left: His only means of making a living. True the human spirit is indomitable, but it sure can use help every now and then. We took a collection among ourselves and gave the man somewhere between $50 and $100. I felt it was a weak gesture then. Today if the same thing happened again, I’m sure we would approach KickStarter or some other crowd funding platform to try to raise enough money for a new boat.

That little baby is now almost twenty. I wonder how she’s doing. Indonesia’s GDP has increased from $2000 per person when I first saw her, to about $5000 today. Things are much better. The country’s enjoyed considerable economic growth but did it do her any good? Is she rich enough not to have to be a maid away from home for years at a time?

***

When thinking about the third part of sustainability and the environment I remember a few years after that trip to Cirebon, flying between Temika and Merauke, in Irian Jaya, Indonesia (now Papua). I had a window seat, and a great view of the Ajkwa River. This part of the river is about 70 kilometers downstream from the world’s largest Grasberg copper and gold mine up in the mountains. All vegetation was dead along the river for more than a kilometer on either side. The river was a soupy grey sludge as it carried the mine tailings to the sea. The tailings are toxic and the fine grains suffocate living things; fish, plants, the river kills it all.

When visiting Temika you could not avoid hearing the rumors, many substantiated, of atrocities against the local indigenous community. We weren’t allowed off the plane as it refueled: this was just a few months after ABRI and McMoRan security officers had shot and killed 37 protestors. The contracted military is extremely effective at suppressing dissent associated with the mine. Freeport McMoRan the mine’s developer, is Indonesia’s largest taxpayer providing about $1 billion a year to the country’s tax base. However this comes with a very high social and environmental cost.

The first politician I ever discussed environment and jobs with was in the early 80s with Mayor Neil Robertson of Trenton, Canada. My dad was the City Engineer at the time. We had a great

dinner over steaks and garlic at Carman’s in Toronto. The Mayor and my dad were in Toronto for a conference, and I was still in university. A month or two earlier the Ministry of Environment had come out with the list of Canada’s largest polluters. The Domtar plant, the smell of which everyone in Trenton knows well, and one of the city’s largest employers, was top of the list. The Mayor wondered over dinner how hard to push for a cleanup if it would mean losing jobs. He genuinely wanted both – jobs and a clean environment – but he saw them at odds with each other. In 1962 Domtar’s predecessor, Dominion Tar abandoned its Cape Breton operations leaving behind its contribution to the hazardous waste at the Sydney Tar Ponds.

Mayor Robertson was leaning toward saying little. Trenton then, and still today, needed all the jobs it could get. Domtar has since merged with the larger Weyerhaeuser and is still one of Trenton’s main employers. The plant still stinks.

***

Appendix 1 provides a few vignettes of personal glimpses of sustainable development. Perhaps these snapshots, along with similar sightings by others, can help form a collage of sustainability. A road map that traverses personal, local and global imperatives. A sense of urgency needs to drive alignment and use of the route for as Chapter 5 outlines the planet’s ecosystems are severely taxed. These physical and socio-economic challenges are greatly exacerbated as the world’s urban population is likely to double in the next 35 years. This will likely drive a tripling of planetary material flows (with associated wealth and waste).

1.4 An Engineering Perspective

One of the best opportunities for sustainable development appears to be the nexus between cities and engineering. Engineering is about infrastructure. Cities are about people.

Civil engineers build the roads, buildings, waterways, and landfills; the community builds the city’s social and economic fabric around them. To build a great city, a sustainable city, engineers need to think about more than the technical aspects of infrastructure. Civil engineers, working with the community’s input can help create the foundation for sustainable cities.

Unlike for concrete and steel there is no easy metric for the coefficient of public support, nor is there an angle of repose for civic action. No textbook provides the engineer with the tensile strength or modulus of elasticity of a neighborhood or broader community’s motivations or social instincts. Human strengths, like our ability to adapt, innovate and our resourcefulness, are traits not always reliable or easily measured. Neither is it easy to predict the impact of human frailties like fragile egos, insecurities and fears, immediacy of the short term, and our selfishness. This human nature though defines the evolution and quality of life in cities.

Even though measuring human behavior is difficult, engineers are routinely assigned the task. Every banked curve on the road, balcony railing, pipe sizing, and roof truss, has a built-in factor of safety that balances human behavior, natural systems, and cost. To engineer is to define risk and then apply a factor of safety. Engineers do this routinely for the stent in an aortic valve, a car’s braking system, and in the bolts holding together the baby’s crib or WildCat Roller Coaster.

Arguably systems like climate, nitrogen and phosphorous cycles, biodiversity, economies, and healthy communities are more complex than a building, road, or engine, yet engineering principles still need to apply. To ignore them in these more complex systems is far riskier.

Sustainable development seems akin to the factor of safety every engineer incorporates into problem solving. But instead of only determining how safe the building’s foundation is from collapse, a ‘factor of sustainability’ should also look at the activity in context of what else is going on around the building locally and globally, for at least the next few decades.

In 1873 the School of Practical Science was created through an act of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario. The school located at the University of Toronto was renamed the Faculty of Applied Science and Engineering June 20, 1906. Along with the University of Guelph (first professional engineering school in Canada) and the University of New Brunswick (thought to be the oldest engineering school in Canada), the University of Toronto and other engineering schools in Canada, are charged with providing practical and applied science.

And the reality Between the notion And the act Falls the shadow T.S. Eliot

Engineers, especially the engineers charged to help build cities, need to apply physical and social science to ensure a safe and resilient operating space for culture and economy. This often requires working in the shadows – moving forward without all the information and balancing professional ‘certainty’ with social license and cost estimates (financial and other). The search for sustainability for everyone starts from a myriad of beginnings, and is influenced by many things. However with a common purpose, simple signposts and community support, engineers, as part of effective teams, can provide more support for sustainable development. Engineers, technologists, and scientists are key agents for greater sustainability.

A myriad of engineering disciplines are integral to urban operations. In addition to civil engineers highlighted through this thesis, two additional engineering activities are briefly considered below: power engineers (e.g. engineering technologists) and risk managers.

As an example, the University of Toronto employs about seventy power (operating) engineers at the downtown St. George Campus to operate equipment registered with Ontario’s Technical Standards and Safety Authority (TSSA)67. The engineers are chiefly responsible for operating the University’s 6 MW combined heat and power plant. There are about 25,000 stationary and power engineers employed in Canada to oversee operations of power plants and pressurized equipment8. The practice is subject to provincial legislation requiring licensing of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th class engineers (based on educational attainment and experience) as well as registration of equipment and facilities. This practice is common around the world with slight variations on the regulatory authority, e.g. state or national, and ratings of classes of engineers and facilities. Rudimentary industrial risk management regulates staff and operating facilities of potentially dangerous equipment such as boilers and pressure vessels (common in power plants).

Risk – the effect of uncertainty on objectives (ISO 31000) – is routinely managed by many disciplines including the engineering profession. Risk-informed decision making (RIDM) rose in prominence through application by NASA and nuclear regulatory authorities. As system

6 The author is the Province of Ontario’s Chief Safety and Risk Officer, charged with oversight of TSSA. TSSA is Ontario’s delegated authority for the legislative aspects of operating engineers, boilers and pressure vessels, elevating and amusement devices, ski lifts, fuels, and upholstered and stuffed articles. 7 From Operating Engineers Training Programs on the St. George Campus, University of Toronto, Facilities and Services, Jan 2013 (accessed 1 Mar 2015). 8 Employment and Social Development Canada (2012).

complexity grew, and highly unlikely but significantly impactful events required quantification and response planning, the risk management community developed tools and communication strategies (Zio and Pedroni, 2012; Table 3.1). RIDM enables better targeting of inspections to reduce risks and oversight costs.

Tools such as RIDM and probabilistic risk assessment became more widespread, particularly with regard to financial markets, food and drug assessments, and climate risk. The role of risk managers is growing as they attempt to better quantify emergent risks and these risks grow as more people live in cities, e.g. terrorism, increasing inter-connectivity, sea level rise and greater wind-storm intensity.

Quantifying potential risks offsets the cognitive limitations of the human mind, which tends to apply a ‘bounded rationality’ to risk. Humans tend to discount the risk of extreme events, e.g. drunk driving, and often overstate minor risks, e.g. vaccine side effects.

For example, following the September 2001 terrorist attacks that killed 246 airline passengers (plus 2731 people on the ground) Americans were more afraid to fly and many took to driving instead. Gigerenzer (2004) found that 1,595 Americans were killed in car crashes as a direct result of switching from flying to driving (post 9-11). The 2014 World Bank WDR ‘Risk and Opportunity’ highlights the role risk management plays in development. Engineers (risk quantification and minimization) and sociologists (risk communication and cognition) have an important role in better defining risk and protecting development gains against growing risks.

Risk management is growing in importance as sustainable development requires more comprehensive incorporation of risk into current decision making, (e.g. through casualty insurance). Climate risk, for example, is growing. Direct costs of disasters have risen from $75 billion in the 1960s to more than a trillion dollars in the last decade (Bakhtiari, 2014).

Urban planners and engineers engaged in long-lived (35+ years) urban infrastructure as envisaged in this thesis, face increased uncertainty. Historic risk profiling may not be applicable and needs to be better differentiated at the individual city level. How this is quantified and communicated to the public is a rapidly-evolving field. Two broad areas of enhanced engineering support are suggested: The use of engineers who function in a manner similar to operating

engineers to monitor the systems of the world’s larger urban areas; and greater integration of urban risk management and enhanced resilience as a key component of sustainable development.

For example, the world’s larger urban areas should have in place an authorized ‘city-systems engineer’ similar to how the Rockefeller Foundation is supporting chief resilience officers at 100 world cities, and how large-scale power plants (Class 1) require on-site authorized power engineers. This engineer(s) should monitor and report on the city’s (urban area) material flows and baseline indicators (Chapter 7).

With respect to the integration of urban risk management and enhanced resilience, Chapter 5 outlines a methodology to measure down-scaled physical and socio-economic boundaries at a city level. One sector includes ‘geophysical risk’ which consists of the impact of natural disasters on the city as well as an estimate of the city’s resilience. Global risk managers need to increasingly assess interconnected risks and routinely build resilience in targeted cities9.

9 Sustainability and safety is enhanced at an individual city level through a greater focus on resilience (system review, long-term, self-regulating, dynamic) that encompasses, rather than replaces, risk management (single risks, short-term security, direct interventions, continuous oversight) – from Erisman et al, Nature (2015).

Chapter 2: Sustainable Development – A Literature Review

The earth is a story of change, and adaptation. For example, during the mid-Cretaceous, some 100 million years ago, temperatures were 8o to 15oC warmer than today (Fig. 2.1). A host of tropical flora and fauna, like ferns and alligators, lived in warm shallow seas at what is today

Siberia and Canada’s Arctic. During the Cretaceous the mean atmospheric concentration of CO2 was about 1700 ppm. The Jurassic period, that preceded the Cretaceous, was equally as warm and is best known as the Age of Reptiles. By the beginning of the Jurassic the supercontinent Pangaea had begun to rift into smaller land masses. Dinosaurs roamed the earth during the Jurassic period 200 million to 145 million years ago.

The Cretaceous period ended abruptly about 66 million years ago when a meteorite is believed to have impacted the Yucatan Peninsula. With widespread extinction, especially of reptiles (the end of dinosaurs), the Cretaceous gave way to the Cenozoic – also known as the Age of Mammals.

More recently the earth’s geology and climate is a story of Ice Ages. The earth is known to have had five major glaciations10. The last one, the Quaternary (Pleistocene), started about 2.6 million years ago and saw several advances and retreats of major ice sheets covering much of the Northern Hemisphere.11 Currently the world is experiencing an interglacial period. The world is still in an Ice Age because at least one permanent ice sheet (Antarctica) has continuously existed for the last 2.6 million years. The current, relatively warm and stable inter-glacial Holocene, enabled humanity to practice agriculture and prosper for the last 10,000 years.

Sustainable development is an integral part of human history. Table 2.1 provides a historical timeline of sustainable development tracing its origins back to the beginning of the Holocene, when climate stabilized to what largely exists today (the Holocene emerged about 11,700 years ago). The stable climate supported the emergence of human settlements, domestication of plants and animals, and human populations flourished across the world. Total human population at the

10 Major Ice Ages: Quaternary (2.6 Ma – present); Karoo (360 Ma – 260 Ma); Andean-Saharan (450 Ma – 420 Ma); Cryogenian (800 Ma – 635 Ma); Huronian (2400 Ma – 2100 Ma). 11 The Pleistocene epoch (of the Quaternary period) saw at least four major ice advances and retreats in North America: Wisconsin (13,000 to 60,000 years ago); Illinoian (140,000 to 350,000 years ago); Kansan (500,000 to 640,000 years ago); and Nebraskan (780,000 to 900,000 years ago). Names denote location of furthest glacial advance.

start of the Holocene was likely around 5 million, up from about 2 million 50,000 years ago (Lowe and Walker, 2014). With a more stable climate and the introduction of agriculture and tools human population grew quickly to about 300 million at the start of the Christian (or Common) Era, and about 500 million in 1600 (ibid).

Human impact on the natural environment was significant as far back as the start of the Holocene. Human predation likely extirpated more than half of all megafauna (> 40 kg), especially in Americas and Australia. Unease over declining wildlife populations must have dogged humans as early as predation began, however the relatively small populations and ability to move to areas with more plentiful resources (or kill and overthrow competing tribes) limited concerns over the shift to the ‘Anthropocene’.

Crutzen et al (2002) suggest the Anthropocene (the ‘Era of Humankind’) started in the late 18th

Century (based on CO2 and CH4 in ice cores) when human impacts started to wrought irrevocable changes to the planet’s key systems. The emergence of permanent settlements is the key turning point in the overall scale of human impact on the natural environment.

2.1 Economic Development

In reviewing sustainable development and its underpinnings of economic development a key historical point occurs at the industrial revolution. Around the turn of the century (18th to 19th Century) people, particularly those in Britain and Europe, started using significantly more resources (especially fossil fuels, Fig. 2.2.) and they became very rich. Figure 2.3 highlights the massive growth of wealth in ‘western industrialized countries’. Around 1800 China’s and India’s economies (as shown by share of global GDP), traditionally the world’s largest for the preceding 2000 years, were quickly eclipsed.

Prior to 1800 the average human spent about $3 per day. Today that amount is over $100 per day (in constant dollars). And world population increased from less than a billion at the start of the 19th Century to more than seven billion people today (Table 2.1). McClosky (2009) argues that this massive increase in wealth was less a function of the industrial revolution, imperialism, or urbanization, than it was a reflection of changing attitudes and the new ideas of ‘human dignity

and liberty’. Making money in trade and mercantile, opening markets, and empowering a rapidly growing middle class, or ‘Bourgeois’, were the key drivers of wealth generation.

Friedman (1962) argues “[t]he overthrow of the medieval guild system was an indispensable early step in the rise of freedom in the Western world.” Today on a smaller scale, and mainly developing in cities, are new initiatives such as Uber taxis and ‘airbnb’ accommodations. Much of this is enabled through the internet, and often by-passes existing licensing and regulatory requirements.

‘Creative destruction’ (aka Kondratiev waves) with periodic advances in large-scale technology as outlined by Schumpeter (1942) set societies on paths to prosperity - Table 2.2. Here wholesale changes through new technologies are of sufficient scale to overcome inertia and entrenched interests. The broad deployment of technologies are enabled by shifts in ‘social tectonics’ and organizational reforms. For example, several types of automobiles existed for decades prior to widespread adoption of Ford’s Model T. The periodicity between waves is declining.

The ‘rich is good’ mindset with a vibrant middle class, and technological advances, is well reflected in the more affluent countries of the OECD. China’s 1978 economic liberalization, and India’s similar opening-up in 1991, is now promoting similar wealth creation in Asia. Growing cities, the wealth to finance necessary urban infrastructure, and associated urban growth and environmental degradation, are side effects (and at times drivers) of the massive increase in wealth.

An important ‘chicken and egg’ aspect of this growing wealth is the concomitant development of major civil (urban) works. This can be highlighted in London and Amsterdam for example. As wealth grew, sanitation, drainage and transportation systems grew in lock-step. Building cities facilitated more wealth generation, which in turn led to more city building.

GDP became the main measure of economic development, however as early as 1959 Moses Abramovitz questioned the merits of GDP as a metric to fully reflect a society’s overall well- being. Dasgupta (2007) also suggests application of social well-being, and points out the limits of GDP.

2.2 The Need for Social and Environmental Development

This massive growth in wealth had negative consequences. For the first time humans were using enough resources, and generating enough collateral pollution, to fundamentally and permanently

alter planetary ecosystems. The human economy generated enough CO2 to modify the relatively stable climate of the Holocene. The rate of species extinction increased two-orders of magnitude from pre-industrial levels (Rockstrom, 2009)12. Local impacts – water pollution, air quality, and species predation – were severe. London for example, one of the world’s wealthiest cities, as recently as 1952 still had ‘great smog’ events killing 4000 (Table 2.1).

Piketty and Saez (2014) – among others – sound another warning that over the last 50 years of wealth increase, inequality has also been growing. Inequity (real and perceived) is emerging as a serious concern. Associated dissatisfaction may curtail economic growth and foster social unrest.

Most discussions on inequity focus on wealth (capital and daily expenditures). Variation across countries can be significant, e.g. Gross National Income between the richest and poorest country is $220 in Democratic Republic of Congo versus $106,920 in Bermuda (2014 values, World Bank). However other inequities are also important, for example disparities in wealth between residents in the same city, or between urban and rural residents in the same country, or between rights and obligations of ethnic groups or by gender. Other areas of inequity are growing in concern, e.g., resource consumption such as wildlife harvesting from the commons, or pollution. Within and across countries per capita GHG emissions vary as much or more than variations in wealth.

Prior to 1800 many of the drivers to large-scale environmental and social degradation and today’s modern economy were in place (leading to non-‘sustainable development’). Around 1800 transatlantic slavery was at its peak; the industrial revolution was in full swing; colonialism was wide-spread; key ‘rules of engagement’ for nations existed (e.g. Treaty of Westphalia and Magna Carta); commercial corporations, national and public banks, stock exchanges were in place; communications and trade flourished, e.g. growing quickly upon the printing press (1450), and in Britain and Europe especially, people were intent on growing wealth. An early indication

12 Pre-industrial species extinction rates were 0.1 – 1 extinctions per million species per year. Today extinction exceeds 100 species extinctions per million species per year (Rockstrom, 2009).

of the power of human greed and its ability to drive speculative bubbles was tulip mania in the Netherlands where in the 1630s a single tulip bulb could sell for as much as ten-times annual salaries (Dash, 2001).

The 19th Century ushered in much more awareness on the drivers and impacts of wealth creation. New governance systems and economic tools were developed. Perhaps the most impactful aspect of the 19th Century is how Britain (and Europe’s) and then the US economy first eclipsed India and then China (Fig. 2.2). This was not so much a reduction in India or China’s economy as it was an enormous growth in ‘Western Industrialized Countries’.

Key advances related to development between 1800 to 1900 included: London’s cholera epidemic and resulting sewer system (1854); discovery and use of hydrocarbon-based oil (ca 1850); Jules Dupuit begins use of cost-benefit analysis (1848); British public health act and emergence of local authorities as key provider of public health (1848); international meteorological conference and recommendation of standardized measurement protocols (1853); Limited Liability Act (1855); first subway system (London 1863); opening of Suez (1869) and Panama (1914) Canals; polyphase AC electricity (1888) and elevators (1854).

The 19th Century also saw environmental awareness grow: establishment of Yellowstone and Banff Parks (1885); Ralph Waldo Emerson’s Nature (1836); Alfred Wallace and Charles Darwin on the evolution of species (1858); publication of the basis of the ‘greenhouse effect’ (1863); and start of the Audubon and Sierra Clubs (1886 and 1892 respectively).

The 20th Century is when humanity powered the Anthropocene in earnest, and began to understand the enormity of the task to bring humanity within natural ecosystem boundaries. In 1900 global GDP was some $2 trillion (about $640 per capita) and life expectancy for the 1.65 billion people alive then was about 48 years. By the close of the century in 2000 population had grown to more than 6 billion, global GDP had increased more than 80-fold to about $41 trillion

($6500 per capita) and life expectancy had increased to a remarkable 78 years. Atmospheric CO2 values were 369.5 ppm and growing by more than 2 ppm per year.

A few iconic developments in the 20th Century warrant special notice (from Table 2.1). These include: invention of air conditioning (1902); Ford’s Model T (1908); the first household refrigerator (1913); global flu pandemic of 1918-20 (75 million dead); First World War (1914 – 1918); establishment of the League of Nations (1920), replaced by United Nations (1945); IMF and World Bank established (1944); ISO founded in Geneva (1947) replacing the International Federation of the National Standardizing Association (1926); and IUCN (1948).

Several events, particularly in the second half of the century, garnered public attention. These included: London’s great smog killing 4000 in 1952; Minamata disease (mercury poisoning) in 1956; Thalidomide induced birth defects starting in 1957; the impacts of DDT illustrated in Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring (1962); Cuyahoga River again catching on fire (1969); OPEC oil crisis (embargo) in 1973; Rowland and Molina sound a warning about CFC and ozone in 1974; Love Canal (1976); Bhopal chemical leak in 1984; Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986; and Exxon Valdez (1989), among others.

As awareness of environmental degradation, social inequality and challenges to the global economic model grew, agencies and NGOs flourished. A few of these include: Ecological Society of America (1915) that became Nature Conservancy in 1950; Oxfam (1942); Ten Thousand Villages (1946); World Wildlife Fund (1961); Environmental Defense Fund (1967); Friends of the Earth and Pollution Probe (1969); Canada’s International Development Research Center (1970); Greenpeace (1971); start of the UN’s Conference on Human Environment and establishment of UNEP (1972); TERI (1974); Body Shop (1976); Habitat I in Vancouver (1976); Greenbelt Movement in Kenya started by Wangari Muta Maathai (1977); World Resources Institute (1982); Grameen Bank and WCED created 1983; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1988); Stockholm Environment Institute (1989); International Institute for Sustainable Development in Winnipeg (1990); and Global Environment Facility (1991).

Seminal publications included: Aldo Leopold’s A Sand County Almanac (1949); E.F. Schumacher’s Small is Beautiful (1973); Lester Brown’s The Twenty Ninth Day (1978); James Lovelock’s Gaia Hypothesis (1979); John Elkington coining the term ‘triple bottom line’ in 1994; Hunter and Amory Lovins and Ernst von Weizacker Factor Four that called to double wealth while halving resource consumption (1998); the IUCN’s World Conservation Strategy

(1980); and the start of a global discussion on sustainable development through issuance of Our Common Future (1987).

2.3 The History of Sustainable Development

Jericho (9000 years ago), Rome, Athens, Mesopotamia and the Song dynasty in China ushered in much of today’s Common Era. Progress in development objectives was relatively modest up to about 1800. For example, human life expectancy was 36 years in 1700, and grew by only about 10 percent during the 100 years to 1800 (40 years). Yet several observers already issued warnings. Malthus (1798), for example, warned of exponential population growth in a world of linear agricultural production.

A few decades later, witnessing the destruction wrought by European settlers, Chief Seattle pleaded for environmental respect, and caution: ‘Man did not weave the web of life, he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself’ (1854).

When reviewing the history of sustainable development a few key markers emerge. The concept was well established with early glimpses available in areas such as timber harvest rates in Germany (ca 1713), the Constitution of the Iroquois Nation governance structure requiring consideration for future seventh generations (some 500 years ago), and cooperative rice farming in Bali (more than 1000 years ago) – see Chapter 3.

Within the last 50 years sustainable development as a concept is largely a reaction to the unprecedented growth in wealth and resource consumption in the ‘western industrialized grouping’ (Schaffartzik et al 2014). This increase in resource consumption and resulting pollution is now being replicated by China and India, and within a couple decades Sub-Saharan Africa.

Important responders to wealth generation and resource consumption (with related globalization and population growth) include Aurelio Peccei forming the ‘Club of Rome’ in the late 1960s. One of the Club of Rome’s first tasks was to commission researchers at MIT to model population growth and resource consumption. The resulting Limits to Growth (1972) was harsh in its warning of pending ‘over shoot’. The follow-on Mankind at the Turning Point (1974) had a more positive slant yet the message was still a stern warning of impending resource consumption,

population growth and ecosystem damage overwhelming the planet’s carrying capacity. This work was further advanced through the IUCN13 World Conservation Strategy (WCS, 1980). That Strategy is considered to be one of the earliest modern documents to use the term sustainable development.

The IUCN’s WCS was instrumental in launching similar UN commissioned work starting with the Brandt Commission (Willy Brandt was former Prime Mister of Germany) “Program for Survival and Common Crises” (1980). Followed by the Palme Commission (Olaf Palme was former Prime Minister of Sweden) “Common Security” (1983). In December 1983 Javier Perez de Cuellar, UN Secretary-General asked Gro Harlem Brundtland (former Prime Mister of Norway) to chair a World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) focusing on “long-term environmental strategies for achieving sustainable development by the year 2000 and beyond.”

Leading to the 1980 review by the World Conservation Strategy was work by influential researchers like Garrett Hardin who introduced the concept of the Tragedy of the Commons in 1968. The main concern raised in this work was ‘over population.’ This was consistent with Limits to Growth findings that typically applied exponential population growth scenarios. Prime Ministers Brandt, Palme and Brundtland shared socialist party affiliations. A distinction apparently not lost on other world leaders such as Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher (IISD, 2000).

Our Common Future popularized the term sustainable development with a succinct definition of “development which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (1987). Launch of the report coincided with the successful Montreal Protocol for ozone depleting substances, and a growing general awareness in public opinion for greater environmental protection (at least in North America and Europe). The Report catalyzed this public awareness and support. For example, countries, regions and cities quickly established follow-on Round Tables on Environment and Economy (Canada’s national Round

13 The International Union for Conservation of Nature was founded in 1948 as the world’s first global environmental organization. Now headquartered near Geneva, Switzerland IUCN has 200+ government and 900+ NGO members, 11000 voluntary scientists, and regularly issues a 4 year ‘Global Programme’ (latest 2012 to 2016) to frame its ongoing work program.

Table started in 1988, so too the cities of Peterborough and Guelph). In 1989 Time magazine declared ‘Endangered Earth’ its ‘Planet of the Year’.

The same 1989 Special Edition ‘Managing Planet Earth’ of Scientific American that discussed industrial ecology contains an article by Ruckelshaus (former head of US EPA and US representative on WCED) reflecting on his experience as a co-author of Our Common Future. He called for three things to facilitate sustainable development: (1) strengthening of institutions and financial support, especially for UNEP; (2) reliable information – agency(ies) to research and provide credible public information, and; (3) better integration of overseas development assistance, e.g. Africa served by 82 international donors (in 1988) and 1700 private organizations (in 1980 Burkina Faso, population 8 million, had 340 independent aid projects underway).14

Numerous researchers contributed to the analytical underpinnings of sustainable development. For example, Baccini (1996) suggest that to transform to sustainable development the concept ‘from global to regional scale’ needs to change the fabric of buildings and transportation. Weisz and Steinberger (2010) review high income lifestyles that often accompany urbanization. Energy and material flows in cities and household incomes which are strongly correlated with embodied energy and material use are the key challenge. Urban form and building design is also very important. Madlener and Sunak (2011) also focus on urban form especially in megacities.

Hoekstra and Wiedmann (2014) quantify the current degree of over-reach and argue in Science that ‘humanity’s unsustainable footprint’ needs to be halved.

Related to sustainable development Cole et al (1997) provide an empirical analysis with environmental Kuznet curves, stating the curves can only be relied on for local air pollution. Wealth reduces pollution, but only when directly impacted, therefore another approach than hoping affluence will address global pollution is needed. Glasby (1995) argues that 1 billion global population is the ‘sustainable level’. This is obviously an unrealistic objective, as the UN (2014) projects human population to exceed 10 billion by 2100.

14 This thesis supports Ruckelshaus’ recommendations but proposes that coordination, data collection and management, and institutional support be provided at the metropolitan city-level (starting with larger cities).

On 4 August, 1987 the 42nd Session of the UN General Assembly accepted the WCED’s work, Our Common Future. The General Assembly largely endorsed the report’s recommendations, and along with growing public support in many countries, political support was channeled through the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro, June 2-14, 1992. Government officials from 178 countries arrived, plus 20,000 to 30,000 individual representatives (the date coincided with the 20 year anniversary of the Stockholm Conference).

Key achievements of the 1992 Rio (UNCED) meeting included: (i) Adoption of the Rio Declaration with 27 principles of sustainable development, including 7 on ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’; (ii) Issuance of ‘Agenda 21’ (and city-targeted ‘local Agenda 21s’); (iii) establishment of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC); (iv) the Convention on Biological Diversity; (v) non legally binding Statement of Forest Principles; (vi) and creation of the Commission on Sustainable Development later that year. The Rio Summit was successful in capturing the world’s attention and engagement. Virtually every world leader attended, despite George H. W. Bush’s admonishment prior to the event that “The American way of life is not negotiable”. The event also spun off important parallel initiatives (some still lasting), e.g. the World Business Council on Sustainable Development.

Ten and twenty years later, Rio+10 and Rio+20, were arguably much less successful than the 1992 event. Rio+20 occurred just after major global economic retrenchment, and Rio+10 was complicated with climate negotiations and political transitions in several key countries (personal observations). Despite the relatively modest achievements of Rio+10 and Rio+20, and with the expansive global discussion before the 1992 Rio Summit, a review of sustainable development can still be linked to these points in time: Rio (1992); Rio+10 (2002), and Rio+20 (2012). See Tables 2.1 and 3.1a-d.

As part of the WCED discussions on sustainable development a key focus was on equity of resource consumption and system efficiency of Western Industrialized Countries, compared to low income countries. Strong (1992) illustrates this well with his focus on energy efficiency.

Strong, and many others, through discussions on sustainable development admonish Western Industrialized Countries to use fewer resources and share more wealth. The political underpinnings of sustainable development have become further entrenched since the first Rio

conference in 1992. Negotiations on various aspects of sustainable development often bifurcate along different groups; e.g. wealth transfer, trade flows, regional alliances (Holden et al, 2014; Benson and Craig, 2014; Zaccai, 2012). The last twenty years of progress on sustainable development is largely measured through geo-political positioning and agreements.

Bensen and Craig (2014) argue that the Anthropocene requires we move beyond sustainable development. The ‘failure of Rio requires stopping the pursuit of sustainability’. Resilience thinking they believe is a possible new orientation. Mitcham (1995) similarly argues that the concept of sustainable development with unclear origins and general ambivalence warrants caution if used as a design directive. Ehrlich (1994) concentrated on total energy consumption suggesting this was the key function of species extinction.

While sustainable development is mostly an optimization process with ongoing political undertones, sustainability is the application of efficiency and resilience efforts to material flows and quality of life. Quality of life is mostly a local issue (Putnam, 1988), although minimum health and social norms are proposed through the SDGs. Energy and material flows analysis is often likened to ‘societal metabolism’, with cities having the largest appetites.

2.4 Material Flows

A key building block of sustainability (and from that sustainable development) is energy and material flows. The availability of resources such as energy, food, and water, their use within the economy, and their eventual disposal as waste, drives most of the science of sustainability and debate over sustainable development.

In 1998 Fischer-Kowalski (Part 1, 1860-1970) and Fischer-Kowalski & Huttler (Part 2, 1970- 1998) published ‘Society’s Metabolism: The Intellectual History of Materials Flow Analysis.’ The two-part paper provides a comprehensive review of materials flow analysis. Several important papers are discussed. These include: (i) Marx and Engels (1867) first applied the term metabolism to society, “Metabolism between man and nature;” (ii) Ostwald (1909) urging society to be aware of the “energetic imperative”, with a focus on energy conservation; (iii) the 1969 paper by Ayers (a physicist) and Kneese (an economist) summarizing the material flow analysis of national economies.

Wolman’s influential Scientific American article (1965) describing the earth as ‘a closed ecological system’ and introducing the ‘metabolism of the city’ is an important early contribution to the concept of urban metabolism. This was well detailed in ‘The Metabolism of a City: The Case of Hong Kong’ by Newcombe et al (1978). This was further refined through ‘industrial ecology’ by Frosch and Gallopoulos (1989 – Special Edition of Scientific American).

World Resources Institute (1997) supported material flows work with a detailed analysis of resource flows (primary) and materials intensity in Germany, Netherlands, USA and Japan. WRI followed this report with a call for material intensity accounts for countries.

Williams et al (2002) took this one step farther when assessing the ‘1.7 kg microchip’. They found that the 2 g chip required fossil fuel (1600 g), chemicals (72 g), water (32,000 g) and elemental gas (700 g) to manufacture. These vicarious or embodied emissions represent a significant contribution to overall environmental impacts, especially those of relatively affluent and high-consuming urban residents.

Schaffartzik et al (2014) conduct a 177-country material flows assessment (1950 to 2010). Material consumption ranges from 4.5 t/cap/a Sub-Saharan Africa to 14.8 t/cap/a in Western Industrial Grouping. The global average is greater than 10 t/cap/a (~3 t biomass, 2 t fossil energy carriers, 1 t metal, 4 t construction materials, and 200 Kg industrial minerals). In terms of total material use Asia overtook Western Industrial Grouping in 1995 and now uses 50 percent of the world’s material resources.

Krausmann et al (2014) follow resource flows in small island states, e.g. Trinidad and Tobago (for 5 decades). Kral et al (2014) look at material flows from a city perspective. They highlight the difference in stock for example in Vienna (180 kg/cap) and Taipei (30 kg/cap). Half of copper in sewers is believed to be non-point source illustrating the ubiquitous nature of many materials, such as metals. Fishman et al (2014) evaluate material stock for Japan (310 t/cap) and US (375 t/cap).

An emerging field of material flows is embodied emissions and inter-connectedness, and at- times increased vulnerability of supply chains. O’Rourke (2014) discusses (threatened) sustainability in industrial supply chains. Dachin and Levine (2012) calculate embodied resource

flows – embodied flows can be as high as a third of overall flows. Ausubel and Waggoner (2008) observe dematerialization of supply-chain and resource flows 1980-2006.

Efforts to foster sustainability require clear awareness of material flows. Risks of flow interruption need to be known and ameliorated. Cities are particularly vulnerable as energy, food and water supply can be disrupted, and long term economic vulnerabilities manifest over material provisioning. As much as possible these material flow analyses should be for the urban conurbation, and should be regularly provided in an apolitical means, e.g. engineering schools and remote sensing.

When assessing material and energy flows and the importance of network structure, nodes, and distributed influences, a parallel with information is apparent [Castells (2007, 2011)].

2.5 Challenges Ahead

In addition to pending geopolitical concerns, social depravations, and more than one billion people in poverty, planetary system limits appear to have been crossed. The two of greatest immediate concern are loss of biodiversity and impending climate change. According to Rockstrom et al (2009) nitrogen use levels have also crossed a safe boundary. A recent update of the 2009 boundaries paper argues that land-use changes have also now crossed the ‘safe boundary’ (Steffen, 2015).

Mora et al in Nature (2013) project significant climate variance and emphasize the need to get major changes immediately in place. Climate is projected to move to a state continuously out of bounds of historical variability in 2047 following a business as usual approach (massive societal disruptions). Along with the World Bank (2014) PricewaterhouseCoopers in its 2014 Low Carbon Economy Index predicts 4 degree Celsius warming.

Barnosky et al (2012) warn of an approaching state shift in earth’s biosphere. They argue the need to develop local and global early warning systems. Similarly Tingley et al (2013) opine that climate change must not blow conservation off course. Cardinale et al (2012) outline the significant impact on ecosystems from biodiversity loss. The complexities of environmental- social challenges and inability to provide an integrated public policy response give concern. This global public policy conundrum is exacerbated by Gerland et al (2014) warning that world

population is not likely to stabilize this century. Population estimates are 7.2 billion in 2050 and 10.9 billion in 2100. The key determinant being Africa. This is consistent with Hoornweg and Pope (2014).

Mohareb and Kennedy (2014) suggest that scenarios with 80 percent reduction of GHG emissions for low-carbon cities are unlikely. Similarly Notter et al (2013) reviewed Swiss

lifestyles and found that the goal of 2000 W/person could be achieved but not the 1 tonne CO2 per person. Arto and Dietzebacher (2014) illustrate how globally GHG emissions increased 8.8 Gt CO2e, 1995 – 2008 (30.5 to 39.3). The main driver was consumption not population growth.

Kubiszewsk et al (2013) found that GDP has increased more than three-fold since 1950 but genuine progress indicator (GPI) has actually decreased since 1978. Life satisfaction in 17 reviewed countries has not improved since 1975. They found that GPI per capita does not increase beyond a per capita GDP ~ $7000.

Smil (2007) argues that globalization has so far mainly been driven by diesel engines and gas turbines. GHG emissions associated with these activities are still accelerating and with large populations, such as East and South Asia and Africa, yet to fully join the global marketplace, pressure for emissions to increase will grow.

2.6 Glimpses of Hope

Chapters 3 and 4 provide more detail on positive trends ameliorating the potential impacts in cities of current development paths. For example ‘green growth’, the role of large fast-growing cities in bringing forward sustainable development, and the prospective enormous wealth to be created this century. Following are a few additional hopeful developments.

Buhaug and Urdal (2013) use an empirical analysis since 1960 for 55 major cities in Asia and Africa to ascertain if increasing urban population leads to social disorder. On the contrary, they found that urban disorder is primarily associated with lack of consistent political institutions, economic shocks, and ongoing civil strife. Rogel et al (2013) in assessing ‘Sustainable Energy for All’ (i.e., universal access; doubling the share of renewables; improving energy efficiency by more than 2.4 percent per year, rather than historic 1.2 percent per year improvement) is compatible with maintaining a 2o C warming threshold.

Dominici et al (2014) found that from 2003 through 2012 reductions in particulate matter were responsible for one-third to one-half of total monetized benefits of all US environmental interventions. This provides a useful suggestion for priorities that are fully consistent with efforts to reduce GHG emissions. East Asian co-benefits in reducing PM 2.5 and ground level ozone are 10-70 times marginal cost in 2030, reducing approximately 1.3 million deaths in 2050.

Grimm et al (2008) suggest urban ecology is an important means to connect city residents to local and global imperatives – positive experience is highlighted. Ferraro and Reid (2013) illustrate how interdisciplinary research to sustainable development is particularly valuable.

Surowiecki (2005) in The Wisdom of Crowds discusses how in the TV show ‘Who Wants to be a Millionaire’ the polled studio audience selects the correct answer 91 percent of the time (ask an expert is correct just 65 percent of the time). This work is consistent with Galton (1907) who observed uncanny accuracy of ‘crowd sourced’ weight estimates of an ox at the County Fair.

Hinkel et al (2014) provide an intriguing example. Adaptation to rising sea levels is a (legitimate) concern for many coastal cities. However in many cases, groundwater extraction and associated settlement can be an order of magnitude greater than potential sea level rise. Reducing groundwater extraction is obviously not easy as many demands exist, but curtailing extraction to sustainable recharge rates is plausible through city-based policy and enforcement, and theoretically easier rather than hoping for changes to global sea level regimes. Much can be done today by nervous coastal cities to significantly strengthen their resilience.

With regard to food production Tilman et al (2002 and 2011) project to 2050 sustainability of the agriculture system in light of growing global food demand. As a function of per capita real income from 2005-2050 a 100-110 percent increase in global crop demand can be expected. Two routes are possible (extensification and intensification). ‘Extensification’ would require ~ 1 bn Ha of land, release 36t/y GHGs, and use ~ 250 Mt/y of N, while intensification would require a much more modest ~ 0.2 bn Ha clearing, release ~ 1 Gt/y GHG emissions, and use ~225 Mt/y of N. Odergard and van der voet (2014) support these estimates and quantify global land use, water and fertilizer use for 2050. A key aspect is the demand side – wastage and use of animal products. They conclude that feeding potential populations is possible but challenging. Springer

and Duchin (2014) confirm that with less resource intensive diets and improved productivity, especially in Africa, the planet could sustainably feed 9 billion people.

Potential broad-based business support is emerging. Macomber (2013) for example urges business involvement in city development. Kanter (2012) provides a four part plan to enrich innovation ecosystems: (1) link knowledge and venture creation; (2) link large and small enterprises; (3) improve linkages between education and employment; (4) link leaders across sectors. The work is developed for the business sector but readily transferrable to cities, possibly in an integrated approach.

Porter and Kramer (2006) provided a seminal paper in Harvard Business Review outlining the benefits to corporate profits and market share through corporate social responsibility (CSR). They raise an implicit warning against potential vehemence of a stakeholder group not necessarily reflecting the importance of an issue.

Other encouraging developments from a city’s viewpoint of sustainable development includes Erikson et al (2005) look at solid waste from a systems perspective – they identify impacts from solid waste on processes outside the waste management system, e.g. district heating, electricity vehicle fuel. As cities adopt integrated, systems approaches (sustainable development) benefits accrue. Baumgartner and Strunz (2014) calculate the economic insurance value of ecosystem resilience (on urban systems). Kessler (2014) follows this with an assessment of environmental risk.

Watson et al (2013) map eco regions and their adaptive capacity (relative intactness of ecosystems) and overlay cities on these ecosystems, highlighting the value of local (ideally in- tact) ecosystems, especially in growing cities. Pimm et al (2014) back up this work with plot distribution of threatened species, which varies by city location. Therefore particularly strategic cities could have an important role in protecting local (and global) biodiversity. Supporting these efforts, Baumgartner and Struz (2014) provide an insurance value of ecosystem resilience. The insurance industry, e.g. Swiss Re and Munich Re, are adapting quickly to impending threats to key infrastructure and providing the means to quantify (fiscally) unsustainable behavior.

2.7 The Role of Cities

In this thesis a systems approach is suggested and ‘city’ for the largest urban areas is defined as the urban agglomeration. In most cases the urban area, or city, is made up of several local governments. Typically the mayor that represents the largest local government within the city (urban area) presumes to speak for the city internationally. Many services overlap and are provided by various utilities, and state, provincial and national governments. The ‘Toronto Urban Area’ as defined through a consultative process led by Global City Indicators Facility is suggested as the longer-term ‘city’ area for analysis. The method to define this area is reviewed and suggested to act as a model for all larger cities. The boundaries of cities (urban areas) are presumed to be fluid and the process suggested in this thesis accommodates changing boundaries of targeted cities (Chapter 4.1).

From a systems perspective, clear agreed-to populations and boundaries of most urban agglomerations do not yet exists. This is bewildering as cities (urban areas) are the world’s most important drivers of economy and ecosystem impacts. Political boundaries, which are much more arbitrary and transient, usually take precedence over analysis of the urban agglomeration. For any sort of materials flow analysis (arguably a pre-condition for research on sustainability), as much as possible the complete urban boundary needs to be defined.

Urbanization reflects humanity’s desire to live together in denser, more connected, wealthier communities with greater life-chances and material consumption (Dahrendorf, 1979). Urbanization is now the single largest driver of the global environment, economy, and increasingly societies and structures of governance. Cities, and their impacts and opportunities, are driving much of today’s global dialogue.

Humanity’s relationship with her cities is however often strained. Referenced as early as the Koran and Genesis and the beginning of civilization, the punishment meted for murder was exile, divorce from the land, restless wandering, and city building.15 Cities were for the transient populations, the restless, and thought to be impermanent.

15 And Cain went out from the presence of the Lord, and dwelt in the land of Nod, on the East side of Eden. And Cain knew his wife; and she conceived, and bore Enoch: and Cain built a city, and named the city after his son, Enoch (from Genesis 4:16-17). Nod is considered ‘the land of wandering’.

Cities are driven by connectivity as supported by mobility and density. Mindali et al (2004) refine Newman and Kenworthy’s 1989 study to highlight the benefits of focusing on employment density rather than population density. Rappaport (2008) corroborates this. Bart

(2010) show that in the European Union transport CO2 emissions correlate much more closely with land use (density) than with population or GDP. Pan et al (2012) suggest that city boundaries should be set by mobility characteristics – boundary decays exponentially with physical mobility boundaries.

Cities are also critical portals to global trends, economies, and material flows. Highlighting this Faria et al (2014) model the spread of HIV-1 in human populations. The key role Kinshasa played as the portal for diseases spread and connection to the rest of Congo, Africa and the world by rail, boat and road is evident. When reviewing global systems and the flows of wealth, energy, ideas and opportunity, the critical role of cities is quickly evident. A few ‘global cities’ (Sassen, 1991) have a particularly influential role. When hoping for global adoption of product use, artist popularity, and as shown above, disease spread, about 50 cities act as ‘global portals’ (personal communication, Vice President, Sustainability, Unilever, 1998). The 122 proposed for inclusion in this thesis include all of the world’s ‘portal cities’. Presumably, similar to other global flows, if sustainability was anchored in these key cities, it would quickly spread globally.

Cities (as local governments) are often fiscally constrained. The World Economic Forum (2013) provides a detailed investment report suggesting that ‘green growth’ needs about $5 trillion per year to keep to 2oC warming scenario.16 This would almost entirely be spent within urban areas. The estimate is corroborated by Kennedy and Corfee-Morlot (2013) who estimated global infrastructure needs 2015 to 2050 including buildings and vehicles: ~ $6.7 trillion per year following a ‘business as usual’ scenario. Incremental cost of low-carbon infrastructure are on the order of $70 to $450 billion per year, i.e. less than a 5 percent additional cost.

These values are consistent with McKinsey Global Institute estimates of $57 trillion between 2013 – 2030 (in 2010 prices - reported in the Economist, Fig. 2.4). Values vary by what is

16 Of the ~ $114 trillion required to 2030, WEF estimates by sector are: $26.4trn – water; transportation vehicles – $21trn; buildings – $13trn; telecom – $12trn; power generation – $10.1trn; roads – $8trn; industry - $5.8trn; rail - $5trn; transportation - $5trn; agriculture - $2.5trn; airports - $2.3trn; forestry - $2.1trn; ports - $800bln.

included and not, and methods of finance, however a reasonable estimate is that between 2015 and 2050 global civil works (urban infrastructure) expenditures will exceed $200 trillion. These estimates include remediation of potential flood losses from rising sea levels and storm events that Hallegatte et al (2013) project to be $63 billion per year by 2050.

Finance is however only one of the many needs of cities. Kennedy et al (2005) identify 4 pillars of sustainable transportation – governance; financing; infrastructure; and, neighborhoods. Cities rarely achieve all four objectives simultaneously. Toronto came close in 1954 when subway development was funded after a positive referendum. More than anything else the development of sustainable cities is a challenge to human organizational capacity (technology and finance needs are secondary).

Bettencourt (2012) Bettencourt et al (2007) reflecting the origins in Schumpeter’s creative destruction highlight the disconcerting need for a marked increase in pace of innovation in cities to keep up with growing populations. Brezis and Krugman (1997) illustrate how new technologies facilitate emergence of new cities overtaking older cities. Examples include the decline of Pittsburg (subsequent rise came after 1997), Leiden and Haarlem the Netherlands, and Manchester, Birmingham and Sheffield.

2.8 Cities as Complex, Scalable Systems

In “The Kind of Problem a City Is” Luis Bettencourt argues that cities are ‘first and foremost large social networks’ with ‘agglomerations of social links’ that ‘enable social interactions to form and persist’. This ‘social amalgamation’ supports a city’s primary role to ‘expand connectivity per person’ and ‘strive for social inclusion’.

Cities are natural systems that evolve spontaneously in human societies, ‘as natural as beehives and coral reefs’. The essence of a city – a built canvas that enables residents to construct the social linkages needed to maximize their personal and collective economy, culture and utility. Cities also by their design of density and connectedness are the most efficient form for material distribution, hence the similarities with naturally evolving coral reefs and beehives. We do well when we mimic nature.

Two thoughts give pause to this ‘essence of a city’: Sigmund Freud and the compelling case he makes in ‘Civilization and its Discontent (1929) and economist Ralph Dahrendorf (1994) and his argument that sustainable development poses a contrast between ‘life chances’ (opportunities of living or potentials for decision) versus ‘ligatures’ (established bonds of the individual to society).17

Freud believed that civilization (i.e. cities) exists to ‘curb the irrevocable ill will within the hearts of man’. Freud argues convincingly in Civilization and its Discontent that civilization is paradoxically our largest source of happiness and unhappiness. Man has ‘immutable instincts’ and unlike bees and fish we are much more able to act upon these baser instincts.

Dahrendorf’s exploration of ligatures and life chances need to be addressed when investigating sustainable cities – humans have traditionally moved to cities to increase life chances, all the while being anchored, and at times held back, by ligatures and social norms. Cities will fail if they cannot foster connectivity and inclusion along with economic opportunity.

Aristotle in particular, presciently noted in Politics that people are the most political (=urban) of all animals. We may be an urban species but globally we only just passed the 50 percent urban mark. Many of our political constructs and social norms still retain a rural bias. As we shift from a rural to urban mind-set, and build our new cities, we will do well to keep nature in mind.

‘That which is not good for the hive cannot be good for the bees.’ Marcus Aurelius Levin in Lubell (2015) defines complex adaptive systems according to three basic properties: (i) diversity and individuality of components with localized interactions and evolutionary processes; (ii) hierarchical and self-organizing; (iii) exhibit non-linear processes, multiple stable states and threshold effects.

Big cities count. Big ‘sustainable cities’ count even more and in the pursuit of sustainable development there is a premium on larger cities. Scalability of cities explains much of this – double the size of a city and you obtain 1.2 times the benefits at about 0.8 times the

17 From Marco Keiner, ed. The Future of Sustainability. Springer, 2006, p 216.

(infrastructure) cost (Bettencourt 2013, Bettencourt et al 2007). When building cities for an additional 2.5 billion people over the next 35 years, these savings in infrastructure costs will be enormous (and probably a pre-condition for sustainable development).

Bettencourt et al, (2007) make a compelling case for the value of ‘trunk infrastructure’ in large cities as they grow (scale upward). This ‘bigger, better’ infrastructure is not usually easy to provide as almost all cities grow in place. They are constrained by historic land use patterns and urban form. Retrofitting trunk infrastructure is much more difficult than building it first and letting the city grow around the in-place urban services (this type of growth is also more difficult to finance).

Key implications for urban planning and sustainable cities as highlighted by Bettencourt include: (i) trunk, or critical, infrastructure needs to serve the entire urban agglomeration, or whole city; (ii) the ‘engineering practices that think of the city as a machine’ need to be ameliorated by ‘seeing the city as a whole’ and building infrastructure to ‘first and foremost facilitate social networks;’ (iii) networks of infrastructure ‘should be decentralized where possible;’ (iv) the price of land rises faster with population size than average incomes (this wealth creation should be tapped to raise funds for needed infrastructure), and; (v) ‘policies that increase the supply of land per capita or reduce transportation costs will tend to create cities that are less dense and that require higher rates of energy consumption.’

Physicist Geoffrey West of the Santa Fe Institute likens the emerging science of cities to organized complexity where they offer a more effective approach to urban planning. West apparently likes to say they are just doing “Jacobs with the math,” referring to Jane Jacobs and her early cities work (1961). Cities are complex adaptive and dynamic systems. The key themes emerging from the science of cities include:18

• Cities generate economic growth through networks of proximity, casual encounters and economic spillovers. • Cities can generate large efficiency gains (environmental benefit).

18 Michael Mehaffy, CityLab, The Atlantic, Sep 19, 2014.

• Cities perform best economically and environmentally when they encourage human-scale connectivity. • Cities perform best when they adapt to human psychological dynamics and patterns of activity. • Cities perform best when they offer some control of spatial structure to residents.

Michael Batty in the New Science of Cities (2013) focuses on networks and flows within cities. A growing emphasis in this new science is the role of hierarchies in material and energy flows.

Bettencourt (2013), Bettencourt et al (2007), and Bettencourt and West (2010) highlight scaling within cities, the pace of life and innovation as cities grow. A general ‘rule of thumb’ emerges: as cities double in population, innovation, patents and economy scale super-linearly (~1.15), while infrastructure scales sub-linearly (~0.85). Through the constructal law Bejan and Zane (2012) illustrate how cities mimic growth of natural systems and criticality of hierarchy. The constructal law states that societal flows emerge and evolve according to the same principles as all other natural flows. Hierarchy evolves as a means to enhance flow and benefits the entire flow system – all constituent components also benefit.

Samet (2013) reviews complexity and the science of cities, applying some 50 diverse features of complexity science to cities. A unifying framework in the theory of urban trajectory for more than 150 years is provided. Makse et al (1995) model urban growth patterns; fractal nature of urban morphologies – predicts global properties and scaling.

Kenworthy (2006) provides ten key dimensions for the ‘eco-city’ (sustainable city)

• “The city has a compact, mixed-use urban form that uses land efficiently and protects the natural environment, biodiversity and food-producing areas.

• The natural environment permeates the city’s spaces and embraces the city, while the city and its hinterland provide a major proportion of its food needs.

• Freeway and road infrastructure is de-emphasized in favour of transit, walking and cycling infrastructure, with a special emphasis on rail. Car and motorcycle use are minimized.

• There is extensive use of environmental technologies for water, energy and waste management – the city’s life support systems become closed loop systems.

• The current city and sub-centres within the city are human centres that emphasize access and circulation by modes of transport other than the automobile, and absorb a high proportion of employment and residential growth.

• The city has a high-quality public realm throughout that expresses a public culture, community, and equity and good governance. The public realm includes the entire transit system and all the environments associated with it.

• The physical structure and urban design of the city, especially its public environments, are highly legible, permeable, robust, varied, rich, visually appropriate, and personalized for human needs.

• The economic performance of the city and employment creation are maximized through innovation, creativity and the uniqueness of the local environment, culture and history, as well as the high environmental and social quality of the city’s public environments.

• Planning for the future of the city is a visionary “debate and decide” process not a “predict and provide”, computer-driven process.

• All decision-making is sustainability-based, integrating social, economic, environmental and cultural considerations as well as compact, transit-oriented urban form principles. Such decision-making processes are democratic, inclusive, empowering and engendering hope.”

Sustainable development is debated mostly in cities. The science and systems engineering of cities is evolving fast (Appendix 5). Current non-sustainable levels of materials-use (as seen through impacts of polluting by-products) are driven mostly by the life-styles of today’s urban

citizens. Solutions must therefore be targeted mostly to cities, and are most likely to originate from people in cities.

Table 2.1: Timeline of Sustainable Development (Emergence of Anthropocene)

50000 to 10000 BCE: Quaternary (Pleistocene to Holocene) megafauna extinctions (more than half of all species >40kg, especially Australia and Americas – human predation a significant contributor). ~11700 years ago, last Ice Age ends giving rise to modern climate era and flourishing of humanity. Rock pigeons believed to have been first domesticated animals as early as 10000 years ago. 7000 BC: Jericho (pop 2000) thought to be longest continuously inhabited city. 4000 BC: Feng Shui philosophy of harmony between environment and physical landscape. 3000 BC: Knossos, Crete believed to establish first landfill (miden). circa 1000 BC: Song dynasty flourishes in China, thought to be first to use of paper currency; earliest use of inoculations against smallpox in India and Ottoman Empire (becomes widespread post-1721 when Mary Wortley Montagu – wife of British Ambassador to Turkey – inoculates her own children). circa 500 BC: Athens introduces law requiring waste be dumped at least 1 mile from city; Sun Tzu’s The Art of War and strategy of resource use and planning. 376: influx of Goths into Roman Empire – thought to be pivotal point in decline of the Empire. circa 825: first appearance in print of numerical analysis by mathematicians al-Khwarizmi and al-Kindi (introduction of algebra, trigonometry: imported to Italy by Fibonacci 300 years later) 859: Fatima al-Firhi founds first degree-granting university in Fez, Morocco. 1215: Magna Carta establishes English constitutional tradition. 1347: Stora Kopparberg, Sweden, oldest commercial corporation, receives Royal Charter. 1366: City of Paris forces butchers to dispose of animal waste outside of the city. 1388: English Parliament forbids throwing of garbage into ditches, rivers and waters. 1450: Guttenberg’s printing press. 1472: Italy’s Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena opens (oldest surviving bank). 1492: Columbus lands on Hispaniola, sets up first New World settlement at Santo Domingo. 1532: Niccolò Machiavelli’s The Prince. circa 1540: start of widespread atmospheric pollution from South American (colonial) mining. 1602: Dutch East India Company founded, leading to world’s first stock exchange in Amsterdam (shares returned approx. 16% p.a. 1602-1650). 1607: founding of Jamestown VI, oldest of the original 13 colonies and key conduit for invasive species, e.g. dandelions, tobacco, earth worms, honey bees, purple loosestrife, common sparrow. 1609: Bank of Amsterdam established - thought to be the first modern central bank; Hugo Grotius publishes Mare Liberum proposing international waters, leading to UK and France declaring territorial waters of 5 km (effective cannon range). 1637: height of tulip mania; single bulbs sold for as much as ten-times annual salaries (generally recognized as first example of a ‘speculative bubble’). 1640: Isaac Walton The Compleat Angler (fishing and conservation). 1648: Treaty of Westphalia and the rise of modern system of states.

1665-66: London’s ‘great plague’ kills 100000; ‘great fire’ begins 2 Sep 1666 in Pudding Lane, burns for four days, and leaves some 200000 homeless. 1670: Hudson Bay Company established (world’s largest landowner with 15 percent of North America). 1679: Antoni van Leeuwenhoek in letter to Royal Society suggests earth’s maximum carrying capacity is 13.4 billion humans. 1690: Gov. William Penn requires Pennsylvania settlers to preserve one acre of trees for every five acres cleared. 1700: per capita GDP ~ $170; average life expectancy ~ 36 years. 1720: In India hundreds in Khejadali killed trying to protect trees from the Maharaja of Jodphur (considered origins of 20th century Chipko movement). 1775: Percival Pott, an English surgeon, observes that chimney sweeps develop cancer through contact with soot (first recognition of environmental factors and cancer). 1762: Jean-Jacque Rousseau argues in The Social Contract for city-states and personal freedoms. Voltaire’s writings (1731-1764) critique European politics (esp. French). 1771: John Smeaton (who built Smeaton’s Lighthouse, self-declares) first ‘Civil Engineer’. 1776: Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations. 1770s to 1830s: launch of Industrial Revolution in Britain (textiles, steam power, iron); peak of transatlantic slavery. 1779: Ned Ludd allegedly destroys textile machinery giving rise to Luddite movement 1781: James Watt patents a steam engine. 1798: Thomas Malthus, An Essay on the Principles of Population. 1800: per capita GDP ~ $200; average life expectancy ~ 40 years. 1807: Britain bans African slave trade 1815: Mt. Tambora, Indonesia erupts, killing 90000, globally precipitating ‘year without a summer’. 1820: approximate start of fossil fuel (coal) driven aspects of Industrial Revolution; atmospheric CO2 concentration ~ 280 ppm; global population 1 billion. 1836: Ralph Waldo Emerson, Nature. 1845: Alexander von Humboldt Volume I of Kosmos. 1846: first mechanically drilled oil well, Baku, Azerbaijan (Oil Springs, ON dug by hand in 1858, and Titus, PN percussive drill and ‘oil gusher’ in 1859, led to today’s commercial oil industry). 1848: Jules Dupuit (an economist and engineer) credited with first use of cost-benefit analysis; Public Health Act, Britain begins waste regulation (amended 1875 assigning duty to local authorities). 1850: first submarine telegraph cable (English Channel), Atlantic Ocean bridged 8 years later (Newfoundland to Ireland). 1853: first international meteorological conference (Brussels); US Navy recommends standardized measurement protocols (US Weather Bureau established in 1870, Meteorological Services Canada 1871, International Meteorological Organization, 1873). 1854: Chief Seattle’s famous open letter (speech), including, ‘Man did not weave the web of life, he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself’; Elisha Otis demonstrates his ‘fail safe platform’ at the Crystal Palace of New York’s World Fair – start of modern elevators (first passenger elevator 488 Broadway, NY, 1857); Henry David Thoreau

retreats to the woods near Concorde, MA, pens Walden; John Snow produces London’s ‘ghost map’ linking cholera to contaminated water source. 1855: Limited Liability Act, UK. 1858: Alfred Wallace publishes on natural selection - Charles Darwin, The Origin of Species (1859); year of the ‘Great Stink’ Parliament commissions Joseph Bazalgette to build London’s sewer system. 1862: first products made from plastic (widespread manufacture begins in the 1930s); John Ruskin Unto This Last. 1863: London’s tube opens (first in world); John Tyndall gives public lecture, On Radiation Through the Earth’s Atmosphere, explaining the greenhouse effect. 1864: George Perkins Marsh, Man and Nature: Physical Geography as Modified by Human Action. 1866: Ernst Haeckel, a German zoologist, coins the term ecology. 1869: Suez Canal opens. 1872: Yellowstone Park established (Yosemite in 1890); Robert Smith describes acid rain. 1885: Banff Park established; Canadian Pacific Railway completed; Karl Benz first gasoline- powered automobile. 1886: George Grinnell founds the Audubon Society. 1888: Nikola Tesla sells his patent for polyphase AC induction motor to George Westinghouse (Westinghouse and Tesla win bid, over Edison and DC power, to light World Expo in Chicago, 1893). 1889-90: global flu pandemic (1,000,000 dead). 1890: American bison face extinction, likely less than 1000 animals (est 60,000,000 in 1491). 1891: Telluride, CO first community to receive AC supplied (hydro) electricity. 1892: Sierra Club starts (Henry Senger of Berkeley and John Muir). 1895: Gillette invents first disposable razor. 1896: Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, calculates how changes in levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide could alter temperature through the greenhouse effect (Nobel Laureate 1903); Hamilton, ON and Buffalo, NY receive transmitted AC (hydro) electric power (from DeCew Falls and Niagara Falls respectively – ends the first ‘standards war’ in favor of AC transmission over DC). 1898: Gifford Pinchot, US Secretary of Interior encourages ‘wise use’. 1899: Thorstein Veblen coins the term conspicuous consumption. 1900: global GDP $2 trillion (about $680 per capita); average life expectancy ~ 48 years. 1902: Willis Carrier invents air conditioning. 1905: the term smog coined by Henry Des Voeux in London. 1906: Vilfredo Pareto (Italy) observes that 80% of land is owned by 20% of his compatriots. 1907: Francis Galton after visiting a London livestock fair publishes in Nature on the uncanny accuracy of ‘crowd sourced’ weight estimate of an ox (1197 lb vs 1207 lb). 1908: Ford’s first Model T. 1909: Canada-US Boundary Water Treaty, leads to International Joint Commission 1912, and Niagara River Water Diversion Treaty 1950; President Theodore Roosevelt convenes North American Conservation Conference (US, Canada, Newfoundland, Mexico). 1912: Alfred Wagner introduces concept of ‘Continental Drift’, corroborated by Tuzo Wilson, in Theory of Plate Tectonics ("Evidence from Islands on the Spreading of Ocean Floors",

Nature 1963). Term Pangaea coined in a 1927 symposium; Corrado Gini publishes Variability and Mutability (leading to Gini coefficient). 1913: first household refrigerator. 1914: Panama Canal opens; last known passenger pigeon, a female named Martha, dies at the Cincinnati zoo. 1915: Ecological Society of America – Ecologists Union (1946) – Nature Conservancy (1950). 1918-20: global flu pandemic (75,000,000 dead). 1920: League of Nations established by Treaty of Versailles (US abstains). 1925: General Motors and Standard Oil spokesmen claim in Public Health Service hearings there are no alternatives to leaded gasoline as an anti-knock additive (Scientific American reported in 1918 that alcohol-gasoline was ‘universally’ expected for anti-knock). 1927: Sir Arthur Tansley coins the term ecosystem; global population 2 billion. 1929: aluminum foil invented; PCBs developed; US Wall Street Stock market collapse. 1930: Mahatma Gandhi leads Salt March from Ahmedabad to Dandi; Sigmund Freud, Civilization and Its Discontents. 1930s: Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal includes strong ecological component (designed to overcome soil erosion). 1931: floods in China (up to 4 million deaths). 1933: Gerhard Domagk synthesizes prontosil (Nobel Laureate 1939) ushering in wide spread use of antibiotics. 1936: US Corps of Engineers initiates use of cost benefit analysis (after Federal Navigation Act). 1937: Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations 1939: first jet plane, German He 178; World’s Fair, New York, General Motors promotes ‘Futurma’, the 'new and attractive' (car-dependent) suburbs. 1942: Joseph Schumpeter publishes, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, and coins the term creative destruction; Oxfam founded. 1943: aerosol can invented. 1944: Bretton Woods Conference; IMF and World Bank created (GDP becomes a standard tool to measure a country’s economy); John von Neuman, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. 1945: United Nations established (replaces the League of Nations, established 1919 under Treaty of Versailles – 45 member nations); UNESCO established (November convening conference held at Institute of Civil Engineers, London); first test detonation of atomic bomb (Trinity site, New Mexico, July 16); World War Two ends – more than two-thirds of today’s 195 countries did not exist as sovereign states or within existing boundaries. 1946: Ten Thousand Villages, Mennonite Central Committee begins selling locally-sourced socially preferable products. 1947: International Organization for Standardization (ISO) founded in Geneva (replaces the International Federation of the National Standardizing Associations founded in 1926); Canadian Wildlife Service; UN introduces international guidelines of economic indicators (by country); von Neumann and Morgenstern, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. 1948: IUCN founded in Fontainebleau; IMF publishes first balance of payments manual; Organization for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC) created (mainly to administer the Marshall Plan) – reformed to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 1961.

1949: Aldo Leopold, A Sand County Almanac (introduces ‘land ethics’). 1950: two Canadians at Union Carbide invent polyethylene garbage bags; approximate start of the ‘great acceleration’ (e.g. Steffen et al, 2015). 1952: London’s ‘great smog’ leaves at least 4000 dead; nuclear weapon test Marshall Islands. 1953: Hooker Chemical sells Love Canal site to Niagara Falls School Board for $1 with a deed that explicitly declares presence of waste. Niagara Falls Gazette extensively chronicles waste issue 1976-78. August 1978 President Carter declares the site a Federal Health Emergency (along with Times Beach, MI, Love Canal largely responsible for creation of US site remediation “Superfund”). 1954: first nuclear power plant, Obninsk, USSR. 1955: Watson and Crick publish double helix structure of DNA; Bandung Conference launches Non-Aligned Movement. 1956: Minamata disease (mercury poisoning) first discovered in Minamata, Japan; first use of intermodal shipping on Ideal X (Newark to Houston), now about 17 Mn containers worldwide regulated by ISO 668 (dimensions) and 6346 (labelling); Hubbert peak theory (and curve) introduced in ‘Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels’ to American Petroleum Institute. 1957: Thalidomide first marketed in Germany (causes more than 10000 birth defects worldwide before drug sales discontinued in 1962); Asian flu leaves 2,000,000 dead. 1958: John K Galbraith, The Affluent Society. 1959: Moses Abramovitz questions if GDP accurately measures a society’s overall well-being. 1960: Vance Packard, The Waste Makers; OPEC founded by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela; global population 3 billion. 1961: World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Switzerland – internationally changes names to World Wide Fund for Nature (1986), WWF US and Canada maintain original name; Lewis Mumford, The City in History: Its Origins, Its Transformations, and Its Prospects; Jane Jacobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities (introduces the term ‘social capital’); USSR test detonates largest nuclear weapon ever. 1962: Rachel Carson, Silent Spring; Thomas Kuhn, Structure of Scientific Revolutions. 1963: Martin Luther King – ‘I Have a Dream’ speech, Washington, DC; global human population growth peaks at 2.19% per year; Edward Lorenz publishes a paper Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow giving rise to the ‘Butterfly Effect’. 1964: Norman Borlaug director of International Wheat Improvement Program, Mexico (leads to ‘Green Revolution’, receives 1970 Nobel Peace Prize). 1965: Oxfam launches “Helping-by-Selling”. 1967: Environmental Defense Fund (goes to court to stop Suffolk Co Mosquito Control Commission from spraying DDT); Torrey Canyon oil tanker runs aground near Cornwall, UK; Churchman introduces the term wicked problem. 1968: Paul Ehrlich, Population Bomb; Garrett Hardin introduces Tragedy of the Commons (follow-on essay in 1976, carrying capacity as an ethical concept, ‘Lifeboat Ethics’); Aureilio Pueccei founds the Club of Rome; Hong Kong flu leaves 1,000,000 dead; first UN Biosphere Conference in Paris (hosted by UNESCO). 1969: Friends of the Earth; Pollution Probe, Toronto; Cuyahoga River, OH catches on fire again (leads to Clean Water Act, Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, US EPA); Icelandic herring stock collapses; first lunar landing (earth from space photographs). 1970: International Development Research Center (Gov. of Canada); first Earth Day(s) (coins the term ‘sustainable society’).

1971: Greenpeace (starts in Vancouver); International Institute of Economic Development (London, UK); Rene Dubos and Barbara Ward, Only One Earth; Ralph Nader et al Action for Change (which launches more than 100 college campus Public Interest Research Groups); Pierre Wack, begins scenario planning at Royal Dutch Shell; OECD recommends ‘polluter pay principle’; UN Conference on the Human Environment, Stockholm (114 countries participate, 109 recommendations including creation of UNEP); Klaus Schwab founds the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Geneva. 1972: UNCHE held in Stockholm launches UN Environment Program (Maurice Strong chairs UNCHE and first Executive Director of UNEP); Club of Rome publishes Limits to Growth; BRAC (formerly Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee); first ‘blue marble’ photograph of earth from Apollo 17. 1973: OPEC oil crises; E.F. Schumacher, Small is Beautiful; Ignacy Sachs founds the International Research Centre on Environment and Development (CIRED) in Paris; women in Himalayan villages begin the Chipko movement to protect trees from commercial logging; Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) adopted; MARPOL Convention (pollution from shipping). 1974: Rowland and Moilna publish on CFC and ozone (Nobel Laureates 1995) – data on CFCs from James Lovelock; Club of Rome, Mankind at the Turning Point; Worldwatch Institute (founded by Lester Brown with $500,000 grant from Rockefeller Brothers Fund); Bucharest conference ‘Science and Technology for Human Development’; TERI, Tata Energy Research Institute, established in Delhi by Dabari Seth; global population 4 billion. 1975: CITES comes into force; UN Habitat and Human Settlements Foundation; first UN conference on women and development, Mexico City; Worldwatch Institute (Lester Brown). 1976: Eric Hoffer, The Ordeal of Change; Body Shop founded by Anita Roddick; OECD releases Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises (voluntary standards for responsible business); Habitat I, Vancouver. 1977: Green Belt Movement starts in Kenya (Wangari Muta Maathai, founder, is awarded Nobel Peace Prize in 2004); Sullivan Principles created to help US companies apply pressure to South Africa to end apartheid; protests in the Philippines lead to the World Bank’s withdrawal of support for four dams on the Chico River. 1978: Lester Brown, The Twenty Ninth Day; World Bank’s first World Development Report (WDR), Prospects for Growth and Alleviation of Poverty; UN Habitat established (replaces UN HHSF, 1975); China reforms (opens) its economy; year in which Genuine Progress Indicator peaked globally – declining ever since (on average GPI does not increase beyond a GDP/capita ~ $7000/ca); Manuel Castells City, Class and Power. 1979: Three Mile Island nuclear accident; James Lovelock, The Gaia Hypothesis; Ralf Dahrendorf Life Chances; Greenpeace International, Amsterdam; introduction of China’s one child policy. 1980: World Conservation Strategy (IUCN); Our Common Crises (Willy Brandt, chair); first GMO patent issued (a bacterium that digests crude oil – US Supreme Court rules to permit patenting of life forms); The Global 2000 Report to the President; Mount St. Helens erupts. 1981: Bermuda’s Delicate Balance (an applied systems approach to people and the environment); start of Ashoka: Innovators for the Public by Bill Drayton. 1982: World Resources Institute (Gus Speth starts with a $15 million grant from MacArthur Foundation); UN General Assembly approve World Charter of Nature; Our Common Security

(Olof Palme, chair); Internet protocol (TCP/IP) introduced as standard protocol on the ARPNET; Latin America debt crises. 1983: Grameen Bank established, Bangladesh; WCED created; H.T. Odum introduces systems ecology (flow of materials); Kitchener first city in Canada to launch Blue Box recycling program (>80% participation); Development Alternatives, India. 1984: Bhopal chemical leak (10000 dead, 30000 injured); Jane Jacobs, Cities and the Wealth of Nations; first Worldwatch State of the World; Debt-for-nature swap endorsed by Thomas Lovejoy, WWF – first transaction between Conservation International and Bolivia (1987). 1985: Metropolis city association (HQ Montreal); Antarctica ozone hole discovered; ‘Responsible Care’, Canadian Chemical Producers; France sinks Greenpeace Rainbow Warrior in New Zealand. 1986: Chernobyl nuclear accident. 1987: Montreal Protocol; Our Common Future (the Brundtland Report); atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeds 350 ppm; ISO (quality management) 9000 series; For Earth’s Sake, retail store for environmentally friendlier products opens in Guelph, ON; global population 5 billion; Conservation International founded. 1988: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change created; Chico Mendez, assassinated in Brazil; Canada’s National Roundtable on Environment and Economy (closed 31 March 2013); Canadian Council of Resource and Environment Ministers (CCREM); Piper Alpha oil production platform, North Sea, explodes – killing 167; Canada-US Free Trade agreement (first of many bilateral trade agreements); E.O. Wilson, Biodiversity. 1989: Stockholm Environment Institute; Exxon Valdez oil tanker runs aground; ‘Endangered Earth’, Time magazine’s ‘Planet of the Year’; Berlin Wall falls; Gallopoulos and Frosch popularize the term industrial ecology in special issue of Scientific American, ‘Managing Planet Earth; The Natural Step introduced by Karl-Henrik Robèrt; Basel Convention (controlling shipping of hazardous waste). 1990: International Institute of Sustainable Development (Winnipeg); ICLEI (HQ in Toronto); Canada’s Green Plan for a Healthy Environment (with $3 Bn over 5 years funding); McDonalds restaurant opens Pushkin Square, Moscow (eventually becomes chain’s busiest – est. 40000 patrons/day – closes 2014, re-opens several months later); ‘dolphin safe’ labelling for tuna introduced. 1991: Global Environment Facility, Washington DC; Canadian cod fishery collapses; Government of Canada’s National Waste Reduction Handbook; Environment Canada’s State of Canada’s Environment; Environmentally Sustainable Economic Development - Building on Brundtland, edited by Robert Goodland, Herman Daly, Salah El Serafy, Bernd von Droste; Wuppertal Institute, Germany; ‘Acid Rain Treaty’ signed between Canada and US; India reforms (opens) its economy. 1992: William Rees introduces ecological footprint; ‘Earth Summit’ in Rio de Janeiro (Agenda 21) – Convention on Biological Diversity signed, comes into force 1993; Union of Concerned Scientists issues its Warning to Humanity. 1993: Robert Putnam, Making Democracy Work; founding of the European Union; Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) founding assembly held in Toronto. 1994: John Elkington coins the term triple bottom line; Interface (a carpet company) founded by Ray Anderson; CEOs of seven largest tobacco companies state under oath before US House Subcommittee that they believe nicotine is not addictive.

1995: World Trade Organization launched (replaces GATT which commenced 1948); Francis Fukuyama, Trust; first Conference of the Parties (COP1) UNFCCC, Berlin; Graedel and Allenby, Industrial Ecology; Conference on Women in Beijing; Ken Saro-Wiwa hanged in Nigeria. 1996: ISO 14000 series (environmental management); Habitat II, Istanbul; Ismael Serageldin (World Bank), Sustainability and the Wealth of Nations. 1997: Kyoto Protocol adopted 11 December; launch of Journal of Industrial Ecology; Global Reporting Initiative (GRI – sustainability guidelines released in 2000); Costanza et al. publish The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital; Janine Benyus Biomimicry; WRI, Resource Flows: The Material Basis of Industrial Economies; forest fires burn more than 5 Mn Ha (largest global total in human history). 1998: Hunter and Amory Lovins, Ernst von Weizsäcker publish Factor Four (call to double wealth while halving resource consumption); Google launched; WBCSD-WRI GHG protocol; UN Habitat and World Bank sign MOU to establish Cities Alliance (incl. 20 City Development Strategies first 3 years). 1999: Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom; Donella Meadows, Twelve leverage points (system intervention); Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes; Seattle WTO protests; global population 6 billion. 2000: Hernado de Soto, The Mystery of Capitalism; Paul Crutzen (Nobel Laureate) with others popularizes the term Anthropocene (the geologic epoch ‘Age of Man’ to replace the Holocene); UN Millennium Development Goals; Carbon Disclosure Project; Jantzi Social Index (securities, Canada); Yale’s Environmental Sustainability Index (becomes Environmental Performance Index, 2006); per capita GDP ~ $6500, global total ~ $41 trillion (total wealth $117 trillion – Credit Suisse); average life expectancy ~ 78 years. 2001: 9/11 terrorist attacks; China joins WTO; Enron scandal; Human Genome Project publishes working draft; start of the Acumen Fund by Jacqueline Novogratz. 2002: Global Reporting Initiative; Hindu-Muslim violence in Gujarat leaves more than 1000 dead; terrorist bombing in Bali; Chechen rebels take hostages in Moscow theatre, 116 dead; international Fairtrade certification mark launched – worldwide use, except US; Braungart and McDonough, Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things. 2003: World Bank’s WDR, Sustainable Development in a Dynamic World; US and Britain launch war against Iraq; European heat waves (70000 dead). 2004: Facebook launched; HIV/AIDS pandemic peaks (started approx. 1960 Congo Basin, traversing through Kinshasa, 30,000,000 dead); China surpasses US as world’s largest generator of solid waste; terrorist attacks in Spain, 200 dead; Chechen terrorists take 1200 school children hostage, 340 dead; ASCE, Sustainable Engineering Practice, with WFEO – followed by The Vision for Civil Engineering in 2025 (2006). 2005: Royal Academy of Engineering publishes, Engineering for Sustainable Development: Guiding Principles; Hurricane Katrina; C40 cities association begins (London); Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Walmart adopts global sustainability strategy; Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf becomes Africa’s first female head of state (Liberia); London hit by terrorist attacks, 52 dead, more than 700 wounded; Jared Diamond, Collapse. 2006: Stern Review (makes economic case for climate action); Danish newspaper challenges Muslim taboos in publishing cartoons; Iraq sees severe civil strife between Sunnis and Shiites; bombing in Mumbai commuter trains kills more than 200; Porter and Kramer (HBR), Strategy & Society: The link between competitive advantage and corporate social responsibility.

2007: Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth wins Academy Award (IPCC and Gore share Nobel Peace Prize); iPhone unveiled; Tesco, a UK grocer, pledges CO2 labelling for all products (discontinued 2012). 2008: some global food prices increase 43 percent; US financial markets tumble (global recession begins, $20 trillion+ global wealth lost); world passes 50 percent urban mark. 2009: ISO 31000 (risk management) series; G20 Pittsburgh Summit – leaders call for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies; Copenhagen climate negotiations (COP 15) fails to reach agreement (cities play key role); Elinor Ostrom receives Nobel Prize in Economics for her work on governance of the commons; China overtakes US as world’s largest GHG emitter; first year more items connected to the internet than people living (launches ‘internet of things’ – number of connected devices doubles every ~ 5 years); Sustainability Consortium founded. 2010: Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Gulf of Mexico; Nagoya Protocol (Convention on Biological Diversity) and Cartagena Protocol (Biosafety); more than 400 die in massive Pakistani flooding; G8 pledges to double aid to Africa to $50 Bn/year, cancel debt, and open trade; WBCSD Vision 2050. 2011: Arab Spring starts in Tunisia; world population exceeds 7 billion (last 1 billion took only 12 years, next 1 billion expected within ten years); COP17 climate negotiations in Durban yield mixed results (framework for future agreement beyond Kyoto – anticipated for COP21 in Paris, 2015); Osama bin Laden killed; South Sudan declares independence (Africa’s 54th country); Norway hit by terrorist attacks; Occupy Movement starts Sept in New York City. 2012: Rio+20 strives (unsuccessfully) for an agreement to ‘greening’ the world’s economies; Russia joins WTO; in Pakistan 14-year-old Malala Yousafzai shot in the head. 2013: Word Federation of Engineering Organizations (WFEO) Model Code of Practice for Sustainable Development and Environmental Stewardship; May 9th daily average of atmospheric CO2 400.03 ppm at Mauna Loa, HI (Ralph Keeling continuously measuring CO2 concentrations since 1958 – first time concentration exceeds 400); clothing factory collapses in Bangladesh killing at least 900; Edward Snowden admits to leaking classified US intelligence; Saudi Arabia declines seat on UN Security Council; Nelson Mandela dies at age 95; April – average foreign currency exchange reaches $5.3 trillion per day 2014: Malala Yousafzai awarded Nobel Peace Prize; The New Economy report launched by Nick Stern and President Calderon; McDonalds, Pushkin Square, Moscow closes; WWF Living Planet report launched (states that between 1970-2014 half of all wildlife lost); ISO 37120; 300,000+ people march for climate action in New York City; global wealth $262 trillion (Credit Suisse) – 94.5% of wealth held by 20% of adults, $798,000 and above places you in wealthiest 1%. 2015: launch of SDGs; terrorist shootings in Paris; COP21 Paris, new UNFCCC agreement anticipated. 2016: Habitat III planned. 2026: human population likely 8 billion (5 Bn urban); atmospheric CO2 ~ 421 ppm; >100 Bn devices connected to internet. 2042: human population likely 9 billion (6.3 Bn urban); atmospheric CO2 ~ 450 ppm. From: various sources (see references); including IISD Sustainable Development Timeline, 2012, ‘Timeline of history of environmentalism,’ Wikipedia (accessed 23-2-2015), and ‘A Brief Timeline of Environmental History for Canadian Environmental Education’, Peter D. Carter, 2007; 1800, 1900 and 2000 GDP values from De Jong, 1998.

Table 2.2: Schumpeter’s Waves of Innovation and Economic Activity (The Economist)

1785 ~ 1845 water, power, textiles, iron 1845 ~ 1900 steam, rail, steel 1900 ~ 1950 electricity, chemicals, internal-combustion engine 1950 ~ 1990 petrochemical, electronics, aviation 1990 ~ 2020 digital networks, software, new media

Note declining periodicity between waves – starting at 60 years in 1785, likely declining to 10- 15 years by mid-century.

Figure 2.1: Historical Temperature of Planet Earth from Cambrian to Present

"All palaeotemps" by Glen Fergus - Own work. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.svg#mediaviewer/File:All_palaeotemps.svg

Figure 2.2: Total Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Figure 2 in Bajželj et al, 2013)

Figure 2.3: A History of World GDP (The Economist)

(The Economist, Retrieved August 16, 2010: http://www.economist.com/node/16834943)

Figure 2.4: Estimated Global Infrastructure Finance Requirements 2013-2030 (The Economist)

Chapter 3: Institutional Landscape – View from the Cities

Much on sustainable development is written from the perspective of countries, or from one of the multitude of people (very few from cities) to have attended some related UN conference. Cities as the single largest drivers of the world’s economy, and single largest generators of pollution and waste, are relatively quiet in the debate on sustainable development. This is mostly by design as cities usually defer to national (or state/provincial) representatives. Local imperatives are often difficult to contextualize in global conversations.

From a cities perspective this chapter discusses how sustainability is typically measured. Table 3.1 a-d summarizes sustainability measurement and tools in four time slots: prior to the Rio Earth Summit in 1992; 1992 to 2002 (Rio+10 in Johannesburg); 2002 to 2012 (Rio+20 in Rio de Janeiro): and post 2012. The main international agencies working with cities are introduced. How institutions might help cities is briefly discussed, as is the shifting size and demographics of global cities.

3.1 Measuring Sustainability

Countries are transient: Cities less so. Heads of state spend considerable efforts safeguarding country borders and powers: Mayors less so. For example, two-thirds of today’s 195 member countries did not exist in 1945 when the UN was established. Every one of the 122 ‘Future Five’ cities was a large urban conurbation in 1945, most having had continuous human habitation at that location for more than 200 years. The political borders of cities are as fluid as national borders, however sustained residency in key urban areas is common for most cities.

Coincidently nationalism has proceeded at a pace almost as fast as urbanization. Cities drive much of the world’s nationalism and their host country’s political dynamic (simply through share of population and economy). Cities are affected by the trend: Almost every one of the world’s largest cities had its political boundaries changed in the last 70 years. Cities are a unique confluence of political and material drivers.

Most international affairs are driven by countries and their agencies, yet cities generate the wealth and markets to drive and sustain these affairs. Colonialism, for example, affected

enormous swaths of geography, yet it was the conversations and raising of finance in cities like London, Amsterdam, Paris, Lisbon, Rome and Madrid that drove much of colonialism.

Governance, or governments, follow a pattern similar to differential equations with primary, secondary and tertiary, or first-order, second-order, third-order application. ‘First order’ or community (city) governance should be the most responsive with least distortion and uncertainty. Through habit much of the world now approaches governance with nations being ‘senior’ or primary, however a more apt approach is likely placing the community center and radiating outward. The first level of ‘constituted’ government is then the city. Constitutions, like Canada’s, may not fully reflect this hierarchy of governance, however as populations are stressed in future, retrenchment of day-to-day life is likely. Countries may fracture but cities as urban agglomerations (based on material flows) cannot be further divided.

As development and financial aid grew in the 20th Century agreements were structured country- to-country. The term ‘third world’ emerged during the cold war as a way to differentiate between OECD countries (first world) Communist-bloc countries (second world) and non-aligned nations (third world). The non-aligned movement was strengthened through the 1955 Bandung conference, however between first use of the term third world in 195219 and the late 1980s third world tended to connote developing, low income countries. Similar to the vernacular at the time, Our Common Future (1987) differentiates by ‘Industrialized Countries’ and ‘Third World Countries’.

‘Third world’ and ‘developing country’ is seen as pejorative by some (IISD 2000), and countries are now more typically defined as high income, middle income (which is occasionally divided into upper and lower), and low income. The level of income is defined by GNI and published every July 1st by the World Bank (and elsewhere). In 1964 the World Bank further simplified country definition to ‘Part 1’ and ‘Part 2’. Part-1 countries being those that by-in-large contributed to IDA (concessional lending of the International Development Agency) and Part 2, those countries eligible for IDA finance. The threshold was initially set at an annual per capita income level of $250 and today stands at $1,045 (World Bank, 2014). ‘Middle-income’

19 Alfred Sauvy, in an article published in L'Observateur, August 14, 1952, is believed to have first coined the term Third World.

economies are those with a GNI per capita of more than $1,045 but less than $12,746; ‘high- income’ economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,746 or more. ‘Lower-middle-income’ and ‘upper-middle-income’ economies are separated at a GNI per capita of $4,125 (2015 fiscal year values based on 2013 actuals).

The history of estimating a country’s total economy goes back almost 350 years. William Petty created the first estimate of national income in 1665 (for England – improved 1696 by King George to measure domestic product by income, production and expenditure). Simon Kuznet presented the concept of GDP to US Congress (National Income, 1929-35). Wassily Leontief further refined the concept through economic input-output models in 1936 (the same year John Maynard Keynes published “General Theory” and commissioned Meade & Stone to estimate national income and expenditure) (Table 3.1a).

The Bretton Woods organizations (World Bank Group and IMF) established in 1944 likely increased overall usage and familiarity with gross national product (GDP) as a metric for economic output. Lending volumes (and interest rates) and differentiated fees and capital contributions were often defined by GDP levels (as GNI). The use of GDP as a measure of economic output (with most countries pursuing annual growth in GDP) became the common mindset in the last half of the 20th Century. Today, GDP – as a measure of economic output – is likely the most powerful metric driving the political processes. Recognizing the limitations of GDP as a measure of a country’s progress, other metrics such as genuine progress index (GPI) and human development index (HDI), are regularly tracked.

Sustainable development is not nearly as easy to measure as economic output (GDP). Much of the institutional landscape of sustainable development and its discussion is taken up by countries and their agencies. The scale may be part of the challenge. The most important metrics in quality of life – employment, education, air quality, safety, mobility, connectivity – can vary markedly across a country, rural-to-urban, and city-to-city. For example Los Angeles has much, different air quality than Seattle; Montreal’s unemployment rate differs from Calgary’s; Kolkata’s educational scores are much lower than Bangalore’s.

Countries are broadly managed through macroeconomic tools, e.g. currency, interest rates, import-export controls, and standing militaries. These are intended to provide a stable

environment for the economy to flourish. The national government’s role is largely to protect sovereign territory, redistribute wealth (and hardship), provide peace, order and good government, and facilitate access to the economy’s needed inputs, e.g. energy, food and water. Countries on behalf of their cities project power internationally.

Francis Fukuyama in The End of History (1992) and Trust (1995) argues the long term superiority of liberal democracies as a stable form of governance, with recognition of the importance (and enhancement) of trust; trust between people, agencies, government and institutions. Elinor Ostrom argues for a similar emphasis on trustworthy and effective institutions as a pre-cursor to effective management of the commons (1995, 2011) – see Chapter 4.

Over the last several decades the United Nations, and its committees and agencies, has arguably played the lead role in defining and pursuing ‘sustainable development’. Particularly from 1987 onward with the publication of ‘Our Common Future’ (Brundtland et al., WCED, 1987). The UN (apart from its subnational governmental agency of UN-Habitat) convenes national governments. History for the last few hundred years is usually discussed from the perspective of countries or national factions of major cultures.

The commons is most often envisaged as oceans or shared grazing lands and forests. This perspective may well change as urban areas emerge even larger in the public psyche. Helliwell and Wang (2011) describe the link between well-being and trust. Both tend to be higher in urban areas. Cities also drive culture and economies (where pragmatism takes on greater value). Countries will continue to play a possessive and protective role, however the emerging ‘commons’ as shared human space, may well be the city. Connecting these cities and building trust within and among them will be a key geopolitical driver of this century.

In addition to the UN, several key institutions have an important role in defining and implementing sustainable development. These include: the World Bank and its sister organization the IMF, other international financial institutions (e.g. Asian Development Bank, African Development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and the new BRICS Bank), OECD, International Organization of Standards, and a host of other institutions, often with specific but critical mandates, such as World Meteorological Association and International Air Transport Association.

Table 3.1a-d presents a summary of available sustainability metrics. The list is indicative only, as in some areas, for example sustainability rating of infrastructure, there are more than 600 identified metrics (Poveda and Lipsett, 2014). Sustainability measurement, or at least adherence to the concept, started as early as Balinese rice Subaks (more than 1000 years ago), governing for ‘the Seventh Generation’ (500 years ago in Iroquois Nation), and regulations requiring ‘sustainable timber yield’ (ca 1713 in Germany).

The first known use of cost-benefit analysis is thought to have been by Jules Dupuit in France evaluating a bridge in behalf of President Bonaparte (1848). The US Corp of Engineers was mandated under the 1936 Federal Navigation Act to apply cost-benefit analysis. Cost-benefit analysis is a powerful tool for sustainable development, despite the likelihood of debates on (true) costs and benefits. Determining and including externalities is a useful way to increase the robustness of cost-benefit analysis.

King Wangchuck of Bhutan gained notoriety when upon his coronation in 1972 declared that Bhutan’s pursuit would be ‘gross domestic happiness’. Several important measures followed, e.g. the World Values Survey stated in 1981, and UN’s Human Development Index (1990).

Systems engineering is an important tool to drive greater sustainability in cities, as well as other sectors. Shlager (1953) claimed ‘systems engineering key to modern development’. Systems engineering takes a holistic, interdisciplinary and integrated view of complex and usually dynamic systems.

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is thought to have begun in 1969 when Coca Cola retained Midwest Research Institute to compare different types of beverage containers: plastic vs steel, vs glass, vs aluminum. Proctor & Gamble carried out a similar assessment through Franklin Associates (1988) to compare types of packaging and surfactants. LCA takes a ‘cradle-to-grave’ view and is now a standard metric in the energy industry, e.g. oil and gas, and consumer products, e.g. Walmart’s sustainable product index. LCA, or overall sustainability assessments, are difficult to carry out, and apparently difficult to communicate in a way that keeps the public engaged. In 2007, the CEO of Tesco, Britain’s largest grocer, promised “a revolution in green consumption” by pledging to put carbon labels on its own 50,000 grocer products. The program

was phased out in 2012 with only 500 products labeled.20 More recently LCAs are being (somewhat) streamlined and supported by international standards, e.g. ISO 14040.

Product labelling such as that attempted by Tesco goes back to at least 1978 when Germany’s Blue Angel Program began where products with particularly noteworthy low environmental impact were permitted to carry a trademarked symbol. Canada’s EcoChoice logo provided similar certification starting in 198821. Similar initiatives followed such as ‘dolphin safe’ tuna, and more recently, and more broadly, Walmart’s supported Sustainability Consortium (2009). Golden et al (2010), instrumental in the formation of the Sustainability Consortium, argue that policy makers should refrain from legislating ecolabels due to the complexity of social- ecological systems (recommending instead better supply of information), and that any sustainable product index should simultaneously consider a broad spectrum of potential impacts, e.g. climate, ecosystems, energy use, efficiency, community well-being through the product’s lifecycle.

Scenario planning, largely based on military strategic scenario exercises, attempts to evaluate (model) a dynamic system into the future. Royal Dutch Shell is likely the best known corporate to apply scenario planning. A challenge of scenario planning is the multiplicity of possible events around the world and their potential interactions. Wilkinson and Kupers (2013) argue the benefits of scenario planning in ‘Living in the Futures: How scenario planning changed corporate strategy’. Cities are emerging as important clients for scenario planning, especially as it relates to the city’s likely impact from, and response to, climate change, e.g. City of Toronto and Durham Region climate modelling. This work is also of growing relevance to casualty insurance firms.

A key aspect of sustainable development is risk identification and mitigation. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) grew from the aerospace and nuclear industries as a way to evaluate the probability of an event occurring and its potential impact (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1983). PRA estimates the magnitude and likelihood of risk through the basic questions of; ‘what

20 ‘Tesco steps back on carbon footprint labelling’. Jan 31, 2012. L. Lucas and P. Clark., The Financial Times. 21 The author was a member of the first technical advisory board (for the EcoCoice designation on recycled paper content).

can go wrong, what would be the consequence, what is the probability?’ Risk assessments are now commonly applied to key components of complex systems. In cities this includes critical infrastructure such as; water supply, power, transportation, food distribution. By estimating the likelihood of risk through standard tools such as those used by the insurance industry, impacts to complex systems, e.g. climate change impacting power distribution, quantification of sustainable development becomes possible (risk premiums adjusting to increasingly likely future events).

Partial impacts of risk are measured through a variety of tools. Risk informed decision making (RIDM) is the most common and comprehensive approach to assess risk to (or from) complex systems (Zio and Pedroni, 2012). RIDM requires consistent metrics for risk impacts as well as probabilistic likelihoods and potential magnitudes. Responding to this demand in the health field, for example, Harvard University developed in 1990 on behalf of the World Bank, the risk impact metric ‘Disability Adjusted Life Years’ (DALY, WDR, 2014). DALY now serves as a common metric for all sectors.

RIDM is emerging as a key tool in resilience estimation for cities. The Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) estimates risk (and resilience) by country with national ranking published annually. The index was originally launched by Juan Jose Daboub (former Executive Director, World Bank), founding chief executive officer of the Global Adaptation Institute and is now published annually by University of Notre Dame University (http://gain.org/).

Similar to ND-GAIN Yale’s Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) from 1995 to 2005 annually ranked the world’s countries by level of sustainability (based on 21 components). Main partners were Yale and Colombia Universities and World Economic Forum (WEF). The Sustainability Index was shifted to the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) in 2006 and is now published every two years with a key focus on a country’s achievement of Millennium Development Goals (and presumably Sustainable Development Goals). EPI22 is researched and maintained by Yale and Colombia Universities in partnership with WEF and financially supported by the Samuel Family Foundation (Toronto).The 180 page 2014 EPI report (Hsu et al,

22 EPI ranks countries based on 20 indicators for human health (protection from environmental harm) and ecosystem protection.

2014) provides environmental performance for all countries. Performance is summarized in effective radar diagrams (Fig. 3.9).

‘Green buildings’ are another important signaling tool for sustainable development (BREEAM, 1990; US GBC, 1993; LEED, 2000). The scope of assessment, and degree of lifecycle impacts varies between programs however programs are merging to a common metric. Most programs require accreditation of reviewers and fee payment by building developers.

Broader than buildings the US Institute for Sustainable Infrastructure developed ‘Envision Infrastructure Rating System.’23 Envision contains five sections with 60 sustainability criteria. Clevenger et al,24 review the six most prominent US infrastructure rating tools, including Envision. All six tools have broad similarities; main variations result from differences in attribute weightings. Achievement of sustainability is difficult as no consensus exists on what constitutes sustainability. ASPIRE developed by Arup Consultants (2008), in partnership with DFID and Engineers Against Poverty provides a dashboard approach to sustainability (Fig. 3.8) similar to other sustainability tools such as the Environmental Performance Index and the boundaries tool presented in this thesis. Poveda and Lipsett (2014) identify a major challenge associated with sustainability rating tools – they identify more than 600 existing approaches to sustainability assessment of buildings and infrastructure projects.

The high number of metrics with little consensus on what to measure is a common challenge. In developing a common set of city indicators Hoornweg et al (2007) illustrate how among nine pilot cities (Sao Paulo, Belo Horizonte, Porto Allegra, Bogota, Cali, Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver) 1100 city indicators were being collected annually, yet only two were common across all cities. This lack of uniformity has been largely resolved through issuance of ISO 37120 (2014).

Rees (1992) and Rees and Wackernagel (1996) develop the ‘ecological footprint’ to convert all environmental impact into a spatial representation. This leads to statements such as ‘we need 4 planets to support today’s lifestyle for everyone’. Canadians are estimated to have a global

23 http://www.sustainableinfrastructure.org/rating/. 24 Clevenger et al (2013) evaluate the six (US) most prominent emerging sustainability rating systems: BE2ST-in-Highways, Envision, GreenLITES, Greenroads, I-LAST and INVEST.

ecological footprint of about 7 Ha25. Best et al, (2008) evaluate the ecological footprint as a tool for the European Union. They recommend using a basket of indicators including the Ecological Footprint (EF), Environmentally-weighted Material Consumption (EMC), Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP) and Land and Ecosystem Accounts (LEAC) to monitor decoupling of economic growth from environmental impacts.

Van den Bergh and Grazi (2013) opine “our conclusion is that the ecological footprint does not offer any meaningful information for public policy.” Ecological footprint based on its widespread use, and adaptation to ‘carbon footprint’, is obviously a powerful tool. However caution, or greater specificity, may be warranted. Carbon emissions as a spatial representation is less effective than presenting carbon emissions as tonnes per capita or per city, corporation, or country.

The business community is actively producing sustainability metrics. In addition to specific product metrics such as those from Body Shop, Marks & Spencer, and Tesco, industry-wide programs are also being implemented. The Higgs Index for example was developed to largely measure worker health and safety and production impacts in the apparel and footwear sectors. Broader industry-wide initiatives include the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (1999). This is largely based on the Human Development Index (Fig. 3.7). Competitiveness, a subset of sustainability has been measured and reported annually by WEF since 1979. The 2015 Global Competiveness Report was 525 pages.

The Global Reporting Initiative, GRI (1997) Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES) and the Tellus Institute. The first guidelines were launched in 2000. The second iteration of guidelines known as G2, was unveiled in 2002 at Rio+10 in Johannesburg (2002).

Over the last few decades numerous key international guidelines and codes of practice have emerged. Similar to the GRI above, these include: the Equator Principles (banking practices), the Good Practice Guidance for Mining and Biodiversity, Sustainable Forestry Practices, Higg Index, Carbon Disclosure Project, Consumption Based Accounting Indicators, LEED, FDIC, and

25 From Global Footprint Network, http://footprintnetwork.org.

Sustainability Consortium. Indices are being developed, e.g. Environmental Performance Index and Global Adaptation Index. New indices are being developed in areas such as resilience and security although Sovacol (2012), among others, highlights the methodological challenges of creating a comprehensive energy security index.

Increasingly these guidelines and indices will be developed with direct city input and be at-times specifically designed for application at the local government level (Chapter 5).

A key metric of sustainable development to 2015 has been the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The MDGs were mainly socio-economic targets. They are expected to be replaced by the Sustainable Development Goals beginning 2015 (now under negotiation).

Bourguignon et al (2010) comment on MDG progress. Progress varied by region and by targets e.g. not all improve simultaneously. With such heterogeneity they argue that future SDGs need to differentiate between inputs and outputs. McMichael et al (2003) call for an integrated approach to sustainable development that combines demography, economics, ecology and epidemiology. Folke et al (2011) suggest that the MDGs (and subsequent SDGs) be reframed in a planetary stewardship context that includes a new social contract on global sustainability.

Folke et al (2002) in discussing sustainable development identify two errors associated with environmental management: (1) the implicit assumption that ecosystem responses to human intervention is linear, and: (2) the assumption that human and natural systems can be treated independently. Dahl (2012) suggests the need for additional sustainable development indicators globally and individually that capture system dynamism, plus progress toward targets and values based ethics. Klauer et al (2013) in discussing the ‘art of long term thinking’ recommend focusing on “stocks” and “institutions.”

The Sustainable Development Solutions Network proposes four dimensions of sustainable development: (1) the right to develop for every country; (2) human rights and social inclusion;

(3) convergence of living standards across countries; (4) shared responsibilities and opportunities.26

Baum and Handoly (2014) suggest integrating planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk. Similarly, Kunreuther et al (2013) argue that climate policies need to use risk management tools to reflect many sources of uncertainty. Probabilistic risk assessment is however not straightforward as there is rarely consensus on risk probability and risk tolerance.

Robinson (2004) criticizes measurement of sustainable development as being vague; attracting hypocrites; and fostering delusions. He differentiates between ‘sustainability’ which is more typically used by academia and NGOs as they tend to have concern that the aspect of development is seen to be synonymous to growth. Sustainable development in government and business is seen to be more managerial and incremental.

Measuring progress toward sustainable development in post-2015 will need to recognize at least two key aspects that arguably are not sufficiently measured through today’s metrics or the MDGs. These are local and global metrics that recognize system-wide dynamism. As Bourguignon et al (2010), and others, illustrate achievement of SDGs will be heterogeneous and will vary spatially and temporarily for all metrics. An example of this would be the need to record Scope 3 (or embodied) GHG emissions by corporations and communities. A full measure of an indicator like biodiversity, GHG emissions, and resilience requires a local and global value.

The second additional metric that new SDG assessments will need to evaluate is risk. As the impacts of non-sustainable development become more pressing and identifiable, risk mitigation

26 Launched by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in August 2012, the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) mobilizes scientific and technical expertise from academia, civil society, and the private sector in support of sustainable development problem solving at local, national, and global scales. The SDSN works closely with United Nations agencies, multilateral financing institutions, the private sector, and civil society. The organization and governance of the SDSN aims to enable a large number of leaders from all regions and a diverse set of backgrounds to participate in the running of the network while at the same time ensuring effective structures for decision making and accountability. Twelve Thematic Groups involving experts from around the world lead the technical work of the SDSN. The SDSN Secretariat is hosted by Columbia University with staff in Paris, New York, and New Delhi. (Website accessed: 8 Dec 2014, http://unsdsn.org/).

and risk insurance will take on a larger role. Risk informed decision making (RIDM) will likely merge with efforts to enhance sustainability and increase resilience.

Both system-dynamism and the need for flexible yet comprehensive indicators, e.g. Scopes 1, 2 and 3, and the RIDM and sustainability metric are most critical in urban areas. ISO 37120 will likely play a large role in identifying and collecting these metrics, especially if potential funding is associated with levels and achievement (e.g., green bonds and risk/resilience support).

3.2 International Agencies Working with Cities

Following is a partial list of key agencies with international mandates working directly with cities. In the case of WBCSD and WEF the organization’s oversight and funding comes mainly from global corporations. In the case of OECD, UN, World Bank, GEF oversight and funding comes from national governments.

Other important organizations working directly with cities include ISO, FDIC and WFEO, IATA, Commonwealth of Nations, Interpol, WTO, EU, and la Francophonie, among others. Foreign assistance agencies such as Canada’s CIDA and Britain’s DFID also work directly with cities.

Many agencies and corporations are emerging or expanding their city-specific initiatives, e.g. C40, Rockefeller Resilient Cities Program, WBCSD’s Urban Infrastructure Initiative, World Economic Forum (WEF), Siemens Green City Index, WWF’s annual Earth Hour Capital Award, as well as the World Council on City Data (WCCD) and their newly published ISO37120.27 More should be expected. ICLEI, launched around the 1992 Rio conference, has been a strong advocate for member cities. The proposed Local Agenda 21s (modeled after national Agenda 21s as recommended at the Rio UNCSD) provided comprehensive plans for cities to work toward sustainable development. Similarly the Cities Alliance provides a compelling starting point for city-specific sustainability through its long-standing City Development Strategy process.

27 ISO 37120 – Sustainable Development of Communities: Indicators for city services and quality of life is the first ISO 37120 international standard on city indicators. The first ISO standard was developed using the Global City Indicators Facility (GCIF) framework and input from the ISO Technical Committee on Sustainable Development of Communities (ISO/TC 268).

The origins of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) date back to the 1992 Rio Summit when Stephan Schmidheiny, a Swiss entrepreneur, was appointed chief adviser for business and industry to the secretary general of the UNCED. Schmidheiny convened the forum ‘Business Council for Sustainable Development’, which then wrote Changing Course introducing the concept of eco-efficiency.

The WBCSD was created in 1995 in a merger of the Business Council for Sustainable Development and the World Industry Council for the Environment and is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland. The WBCSD has more than 200 corporate members considered leaders in sustainable development (mainly multinational firms like GFD Suez, Cisco, BP). WBCSD has about 50 full-time equivalent staff and an annual operating budget in the order of $14 million.

Greenpeace was severe in its criticism of WBCSD in its 2011 COP 17 lead-up report Who’s Holding us Back? How carbon-intensive industry is preventing effective climate legislation. Greenpeace argued, “WBCSD’s Executive Committee is a Who’s Who of the world’s largest carbon-intensive companies who continue to profit from continued inaction on climate change.” Arguably, and there has been much argument, some of the business community has urged movement toward sustainable development, and provided credible metrics and signposts on how to proceed, as well as any sector.

Two important contributions of WBCSD include ‘Vision 2050’ and the Urban Infrastructure Initiative. Vision 2050 (2010)28. WBCSD’s ‘Visions 2050’ lays out a pathway and its nine elements that lead to Visions 2050: (i) People’s values (One world – people & planet); (ii) Human development (Basic needs of all are met); (iii) Economy (True value, true costs, true profits); (iv) Agriculture (Enough food & biofuels through a common Green Revolution); (v) Forests (Recovery & regeneration); (vi) Energy and power (Secure & sufficient supply of low- carbon energy); (vii) Buildings (Close to zero net energy buildings); (viii) Mobility (Safe & low- carbon mobility); (ix) Materials (Not a particle of waste).

28 WBCSD in partnership with WRI also produced a GHG emissions inventory protocol (with Scopes 1, 2 and 3 sources) that was, with input from ICLEI, later adapted as the Global Protocol for Community- Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories (launched 8 Dec 2014 in Lima, Peru).

The Urban Infrastructure Initiative (UII) brought together 14 leading WBCSD-member companies and 10 cities. For each participating city main challenges and a solutions landscapes were identified. Two key challenges of the UII concept emerged. Some approached cities were reluctant to work directly with WBCSD and its UII member companies. Concerns over potential down-stream procurement challenges were raised. Another challenge associated with UII was how to select the member companies and how to mediate at-times varying objectives.

Figure 3.3 provides an assessment (1997 to 2014) of corporate leaders in sustainability. Leadership in terms of public perception can drop precipitously, very quickly. For example BP was rated world’s highest for corporate sustainability leadership in 2004, 20055 and 2006, yet by 2008, after the Gulf Oil Spill was no longer on the list.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) was founded by Klaus Schwab in 1971 (called the European Management Forum until 1987). Headquartered in Geneva the organization has some 1000 mostly global, member companies, 21 groupings of industry partners, strategic partners, and regional partners. WEF is governed by a 14 member board of directors29 and has about 500 full-time equivalent staff and an annual operating budget of 190 million CHF. WEF is well known for its annual Davos meeting.

The WEF began publishing the Global Competiveness Report in 1979 and the Global Risk Report in 2006. The Forum also publishes an annual Gender Gap Report, and is a key partner with Yale University’s annual Environmental Performance Index.

A common criticism of both WEF and WBCSD, and perhaps the OECD (below), is their ‘Euro- centric focus’. These organizations are aware of this and are taking steps to remedy, e.g. WEF’s

29 Members of WEF’s 2014 Foundation Board: Klaus Schwab, Chairman; Patrick Aebischer, Swiss Institute of Technology; H.M. Queen Rania Al Abdulla, Jordan; Mukesh Ambani, Reliance Industries, India; Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, CEO, Nestlé; Mark Carney, Bank of England; Victor Chu, CEO, First Eastern Investment Group, Hong Kong, Orit Gadiesh, Chairman, Bain & Company; Carlos Ghosn, CEO, Renault-Nissan Alliance; Herman Gref, CEO, Sberbank, Russia; Angel Gurria, Secretary-General, OECD, Susan Hockfield, Professor of Neuroscience, MIT, Donald Kaberuka President, African Development Bank; Klaus Kleinfeld, CEO, Alcoa Inc.; Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, IMF; Jack Ma, Chairman, Alibaba Group; Luis Moreno, President, Inter-American Development Bank; Indra Nooyi, CEO, PepsiCo; Peter Sands, CEO, Standard Chartered, United Kingdom; Joseph Schoendorf, Partner, Accel; Jim Hagemann Snabe, Member of the Board, SAP AG, Siemens AG, Allianz SE; Heizo Takenaka, Keio University, Japan; George Yeo Yong-Boon, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Singapore (2004–2011); Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director, IMF.

annual CEO summit in China. Similar criticisms are levelled at the UN, especially the globally discordant membership of the Security Council. The city association C40 is facing similar challenges with membership. Similar criticisms are levelled at the World Bank and IMF as their Presidents are typically appointed by the US and European Union respectively (leaving some 80 percent of the world ineligible for presidency).

The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) began in 1948 as the Organization for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC). The organization was created mainly to administer the post-World War Two Marshall Plan and was reformed to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 1961. Like the World Bank and UN, the OECD is owned and governed by countries (i.e. their national governments). In the case of OECD and the World Bank/IMF the organizations are mainly overseen by the ministries of finance from respective countries, while the link to national governments and the UN is usually through ministries of foreign affairs, or their equivalents. For international negotiations such as the IPCC, the majority of country delegations are led by ministers of environment.

The OECD is seen as one of the most credible agencies reviewing regional and national trends and international economic affairs. The OECD played a strong role in recommending the ‘polluter pay principle’ (1971) and in 1976 released ‘Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises’ (voluntary standards relating to sustainable development for responsible business). In 2008 OECD began publishing Environmental Indicators for member countries.

An important contribution to cities and sustainable development is the OECD’s series of Territorial Reviews. Beginning 2001 about 17 national territorial reviews, 30 city (region), and 3 regional reviews, e.g. the Mesoamerican Region (2006). In a few cases, e.g. Switzerland (2002 and 2011) the reviews are periodically updated. Examples of city territorial reviews include Mexico City (2004), Montreal (2004), Toronto (2009), Guangdong (2010), and Gauteng (2011). OECD usually charges a fee for these reviews (about $300,000 per review – personal communications) and in most cases is able to meet with representatives of national, regional and city officials. The selection of cities and countries undergoing territorial reviews is mostly ad hoc, determined by funding and staff availability.

International Finance Institutions

Similar to OECD’s Territorial Reviews, over the last four years the World Bank completed Urbanization Reviews for China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Korea, Sri Lanka, Uganda, and Vietnam.

The role of international finance institutions (IFIs) and bilateral aid agencies in cities is considerable. These financing agencies likely have more than 3,000 active city-based investment projects around the world at any given time. A typical larger city in a Part-2 member country can easily have more than 100 active international assistance projects supporting key aspects of infrastructure and social development. A recent review of the solid waste sector in Dar es Salaam provides a powerful example for the need to consolidate approaches by external agencies. Over the last ten years more than 40 international organizations supported solid waste activities in the city. There are more than 10 solid waste master plans, many with differing objectives. In addition the city has at least 26 reports and unsolicited proposals for energy from waste facilities.30

The World Bank Group (IBRD, IDA, MIGA, and IFC) and regional International Financial Institutions (AfDB, ADB, EBRD, IADB, CAF, Islamic Development Bank, and the new BRICS and China-led Asia Infrastructure Investment Banks) play a very large role in cities of Part-2 countries. The degree of influence varies by which cities the agencies work in, level of national income, e.g. IBRD or IDA lending, and city-size and strategic value. Frequently assistance overlaps and is rarely coordinated as it is often in the interest of the city or country to have more than one agency supporting activities in the city. This is further exacerbated when additional support is provided through bi-lateral (national) aid agencies and NGOs. For example in the Dar es Salaam example waste management support was provided through at least 10 different bilateral and international agencies.

As part of the GEF2020 program the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has been tasked by its Council to develop an Integrated Approach Platform (IAP) for sustainable cities. The sustainable cities IAP will help cities (urban areas) prepare, implement, monitor and refine

30 Personal field review and communication with Bob Breeze, waste management consultant.

integrated strategies for sustainable development (including reducing environmental impacts and increasing resilience and quality of life).

UN-Habitat

An important cities-focused agency is UN-Habitat, commonly considered the United Nation’s ‘cities-arm’. On 1 January 1975, the UN General Assembly established the United Nations Habitat and Human Settlements Foundation (UNHHSF), the first official UN body dedicated to urbanization (then under the umbrella of UNEP).

The Habitat I conference in 1976 in Vancouver resulted in the creation of the precursors of UN- Habitat: the United Nations Commission on Human Settlements – an intergovernmental body – and the United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (commonly referred to as “Habitat”), which served as the executive secretariat of the Commission.

In 1996, the United Nations held a second conference on cities – Habitat II – in Istanbul, Turkey to assess two decades of progress since Habitat I in Vancouver and to set fresh goals for the new millennium. Adopted by 171 countries, the political document contained over 100 commitments and 600 recommendations. On 1 January 2002, Habitat’s mandate was strengthened and its status elevated to a fully-fledged programme in the UN system.

Stretching back to at least 1976 and the first UN-Habitat conference in Vancouver (followed by Istanbul in 1996)31 national governments have attempted, through their own agencies, to work

31 Hope, and Pragmatism, for UN Cities Conference, By Barbara Crosette. Published: June 3, 1996, New York Times. “Twenty years ago [in 1976] the United Nations held a conference in Vancouver to talk about a worrying world trend toward urbanization, especially the uncontrolled growth of cities in some of the poorest countries. That conference, held during the height of the cold war, swiftly descended into ideological bickering between industrialized nations and the third world, backed by the Soviet bloc. It ended with a statement of grandiose demands, almost none of which were fulfilled. Today [in 1996], the second United Nations Conference on Human Settlements opens in Istanbul. In the 20 years since the first conference, the problems -- and size -- of cities have grown enormously. But the atmosphere surrounding this meeting is markedly different, and delegates sound more pragmatic, businesslike and sober in their hopes of what can be achieved. For the first time, experienced city mayors may play a more prominent role in discussions than national government officials. Business leaders, scientists and hundreds of private organizations will be represented on national delegations or will hold their own meetings in the shadow of the conference,

with cities in enhancing their local economies and environments while supporting global environmental objectives. National governments and their agencies appreciate the scale of assistance possible from cities in meeting sustainability objectives, the inherent pragmatism of cities, and the enormous and still growing city demands for new infrastructure and efficient service delivery.

From its outset, as highlighted on its own website, UN-Habitat complained of inadequate funding. Overlapping funding requests and mandates, especially with UNEP, were common. UN-Habitat and UNEP play critical roles in planning and international support to cities, especially those in low- and middle-income countries. A challenge for both organizations is the non-permanence of mandate (and by extension, funding). This ‘relevance of mandate’ (and funding stability) plagues the UN overall and more intensely in individual agencies (and theoretically more readily discontinued). Traditionally this instability was not part of the IFIs, largely as their core funding did not come through national contributions but rather through ongoing investment revenue. Recent re-organization challenges however at the World Bank, and the establishment of the BRICS Bank, raise questions about the long term stability of these organizations.

See Appendix 2 for a list of additional city partners.

The influence of cities is intensifying markedly: through their own agencies like C40, UCLG and ICLEI; international organizations like the GEF and World Bank; international agencies like WBCSD and WEF; local and global corporations; local and global NGOs; professionals and their agencies; and the financial and insurance communities. Cities through a host of mechanisms are playing a greater direct role in geopolitics. The influence is likely to intensify as cities establish more international offices32 and imbed their representatives more into the process.

which runs to June 14. There will be a World Business Forum, a World Cities Assembly for mayors and a symposium of scientists from 72 national academies to discuss ways to use advanced technologies to make cities more livable and efficient.” [Habitat III is scheduled for 2016]. 32 For example around 1987 at publication of Our Common Future only a handful of the world’s larger cities had ‘Offices of International Affairs’. Today most larger cities devote staff and budget resources to International Affairs, and almost all cities have ‘sister city’ partnerships.

Barbier (2012) argues that periodic events like Rio, Rio+10 and Rio+20 are unhelpful and distract and allow policy makers to regard green growth (or sustainability) as peripheral. While Rio+20 was taking place, for example, he argues the G20 met in Mexico and was more worried about immediate economic challenges than long-term sustainable development.

The complexity of international affairs is high. Jabbour et al (2012) describe some 560 international environmental agreements alone of which 350 came into existence between 1972 and early 2000s. These all have a direct impact on cities.

Ruckelshaus (1989), the US representative author of Our Common Future, and former head of US EPA, writing in the Scientific American special edition ‘Toward a Sustainable World’ called for three things needed for institutions as they support sustainable development: (1) money especially for UNEP; (2) information – agencies to research and public information; (3) integration. The example of Africa being served by 82 international donors (in 1988) and 1700 private organizations, is highlighted. In 1980 Burkina Faso population 8 million, had 340 independent aid projects underway.

Examples of City Agencies include C40, ICLEI, UCLG (and Metropolis), and Cities Alliance. These are in addition to the plethora of regional and national city associations, such as Association of Municipalities of Ontario and the Federation of Canadian Municipalities. These agencies are likely to multiply and grow in importance and budgetary security (as cities grow).

Funfgeld (2015) reviews the role of transnational municipal networks in climate mitigation activities and suggest this will be replicated (and strengthened) for adaptation to climate change. Ahern (2011) supports this city focus, suggesting that sustainability and resilience in the ‘new urban world’ from this point forward will largely be based on the sustainability of cities. Seitzinger et al (2012) call for a system of connected cities for implementation of sustainable development (focusing on city responsibility).

Barber (2013) and Barber et al. (2014) suggest a global parliament of mayors. This idea has been around for some time, e.g. Hoornweg (Cities Need a League of Their Own, World Bank blog, 2011). New institutions, like a Parliament of Mayors, and strengthened and re-purposed existing institutions (from the perspective of cities) are likely in the next several decades.

Ahern (2011) in ‘From fail-safe to safe-to-fail: sustainability and resilience in the new urban world’ argues for multi-functionality, with redundancy and modularization, bio and social diversity, with multi scale networks and connectivity, and adaptive planning and design, for enhanced urban resilience. Woodruff et al (2013) echo this sentiment imploring cities and their societies (i.e. institutions) to enhance adaptive capacity as they are required to respond to rapidly changing coastal conditions.

3.3 The Role of Institutions

As early as Hardin’s (1968) ‘Tragedy of the Commons’ and his contention that the “population problem” has no technical solution but rather requires a ‘fundamental extension of morality’ the role of institutions in achieving sustainable development has been promoted. Mebratu (1998) argues that the comparative analysis of sustainable development varies by institution. He comments, for example, that the WCED sought a nation-state solution platform with sustainable growth. IIED primarily sought rural development, while WBCSD sought eco-efficiency. Sneddon et al (2006) call for a plurality of approaches, while Bechtel and Scheve (2013) found that the institutional design affects public support for sustainable development (in France, Germany, UK, US).

Bulkeley et al (2005) argue that good urban governance requires effective relations between various levels of government. Hallegatte (2009) supports this focus on inter-governmental relationship suggesting not to look for certainty in adapting to climate change, but rather plan for uncertainty.

Putnam (1993) using north and south Italy as test-cases highlighted how social capital and institutions are instrumental in determining the quality of governance and by extension well- being. Building on this work Putnam’s (1998) two level game theory suggests that international agreements will only be successfully brokered if they also result in domestic benefits.

In 2009 Elinor Ostrom received the Nobel Prize in Economics recognizing her “analysis of economic governance, especially the commons." Ostrom persuasively argues in ‘Green from the Grassroots’ (which was coincidently published 12 June, 2012, the day of her death – Appendix 6) that cities are critical to the challenge of protecting the global commons:

“This grassroots diversity in ‘green policy making’ makes economic sense. ‘Sustainable cities’ attract the creative, educated people who want to live in pollution-free, modern urban environment that suits their lifestyles. This is where future growth lies. … Of course, true sustainability goes further than pollution control. City planners must look beyond municipal limits and analyze flows and resources – energy, food, water and people – into and out of their cities” [emphasis added].

Leading up to this work Ostrom (1996) called for input from citizens and synergy across disciplines. Ostrom (2009) discussed in Science a general framework for analyzing sustainability of social ecological ecosystems. In (2011) she provided a framework for institutional analysis and development:

(i) Clearly define boundaries; (ii) proportional equivalencies between benefits and costs; (iii) collective choice arrangements; (iv) effective monitoring; (v) graduated sanctions; (vi) conflict resolution mechanisms; (vii) recognition of rights to organize, and; (viii) nested enterprises.

Becker and Ostrom (1995) highlight the importance and efficacy of diverse institutions in human ecology and resource sustainability. Ostrom (2014) in a background paper to 2010 WDR proposed a polycentric approach to climate change.

Tavoni (2013) identify two challenges to Ostrom’s polycentric governance – asymmetry and heterogeneity of risk perception. They show that local sanctioning institutions outperform global ones.

An important contribution of Ostrom’s work is captured in Dietz et al (2003 – Fig. 3.2) that outlines central principles for robust governance of environmental resources. Andereries et al (2004) propose a similar framework to analyze the robustness of social-ecological systems form an institutional perspective. Young et al (2006) discuss a dynamic approach to socio-ecological systems and Tavoni (2013) also suggests local sanctioning institutions may succeed where global agreements fall short.

Galaz et al (2012) support this view in discussing planetary boundaries and challenges for global environmental governance. They identify challenges with: (1) differing risk perceptions; (2) capacity of international institutions to deal with boundaries and interplay between stakeholders;

(3) role of international organizations, and; (4) global governance in framing social-ecological innovations. Vasconcelos et al (2013) recommend a ‘bottom-up institutional approach’ to cooperative governance of the commons, and its associated risks. They advise supporting local institutional development through a self-organizational bottom-up poly-centric approach, validating Ostrom (1996, 2009, 2011).

Feeny et al (1990) in providing a retrospective ‘The Tragedy of the Commons: Twenty-Two Years Later’ echo Ostrom’s optimistic view that Garret Hardin’s (1968) prediction of eventual overexploitation of common resources is not certain. They cite a number of cases of sustainable use of shared resources and suggest that private, state, and communal property are all potentially viable resource management options. Feeny et al (1990) claim that Hardin’s Tragedy of the Commons argument overlooks the important potential role of institutional arrangements and cultural factors. Hardin, who apparently committed suicide with his wife in 2003,33 might have issued a rejoinder to the optimism of Feeny et al that based on current stresses on the global commons, e.g. atmosphere and biodiversity, certainty of success in sharing the commons is not yet evident.

Work by Ostrom, and others, on the governance of the commons and critical importance of competent institutions and agencies is an important contribution for implementing sustainable development in cities. Typically international agencies have focused on the commons such as oceans and shared ecosystems. However as Ostrom opined in her last column city planners need to look at the flow of resources and energy into and out of cities as collectively this determines quality of live and local- global sustainability. In the next decade as cities, and researchers who work with them better understand their material flows and institutional dynamics relating to sustainability, cities will likely emerge as the ‘new commons’.

3.4 Engineers and Sustainable Development

Engineering is the practical application of knowledge. Public policies and urban infrastructure prove themselves in the long run. Between the plans and an eventual operation falls the shadows and shades of grey. Just as the world’s major civil works provide shelter, increased life

33 Steepleton, Scott (19 September 2003). "Pioneering professor, wife die in apparent double suicide". Santa Barbara News-Press. Retrieved 28 September 2007. [Source: Wikipedia, 7 Dec 2014].

expectancy (e.g. water and sewerage), and greater wealth (e.g. transportation systems), they also drive the majority of the world’s environmental degradation.

“Knowledge is power” (Sir Francis Bacon, 1597). Applied knowledge as practiced in engineering is particularly powerful as impacts – positive and negative – are significant. “With great power comes great responsibility” (Voltaire, 1832). As engineers wrestle with the impacts of the cities they helped build, they must also address how cities together now need to build sustainable development. “Whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power, and magic in it. Begin it now” (attributed to Goethe).

Niemeier et al (2014) suggest the need to transform the practice of engineering in order to meet global health needs – more people have access to cell phones than basic sanitation. Their key suggestions: design for scarcity, scalability, simplicity and frugal design.

In 2005 The Royal Academy of Engineering issued the report Engineering and Sustainability, a comprehensive assessment of current engineering practices and recommendations for future standards. Building on this, in 2013 the World Federation of Engineering Organizations published its Model Code of Practice for Sustainable Development.

Cruickshank and Fenner (2007) discuss the evolving role of engineers toward sustainable development of the built environment. They argue that engineers need to learn more ‘soft skills,’ especially in urban settings

Gagnon et al (2008) at the Universite de Sherbrooke outline a conceptual framework for sustainable development in engineering. Clift and Morris (2002) discuss “engineering with a human face” and opine that engineers are ‘stewards of the global commons’. Moss et al (2010) in New Scenarios provide a useful, and comprehensive engineering approach to sustainability, that Giordano (2012) includes in an adaptive and integrated urban planning process.

Hoornweg et al (2014) highlight the growing shortage of qualified engineers and how this is likely to impact civil works in Sub Sahara Africa cities. In addition to constraints on finance civil works are likely to be limited in future by availability of engineers and skilled trades’ people. New technologies are likely to emerge, e.g. pre-fabricated buildings, however prioritizing major

civil works in future is likely to have a greater consideration of staffing availability, in addition to economic concerns.

3.4.1 World Association of Nuclear Operators - An Institutional Parallel?

Following the Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986 nuclear operators reflected that an event at one plant impacted every plant and that nuclear safety was everyone’s business. Leaders of every commercial nuclear reactor in the world set aside their competitive and regional differences and came together in 1989 to create World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO). Much of the impetus for this came from the US where preservation of the social license to operate was critical, however today more than 130 worldwide members are represented with 517 civil nuclear power reactors.

WANO is an autonomous organization with about 350 staff (many seconded from member organizations). Most activities are conducted through peer-to-peer processes. There are five regional offices – Atlanta, Moscow, Paris, and Tokyo, plus Headquarters in London and its affiliated office in Hong Kong.

Unbeknownst to many, one of the most powerful drivers of safety in a civil nuclear power plant is its bi-annual WANO rating. The metric is particularly important to operators as it is a peer assessment and relatively free from political influence. A follow-on question may well be ‘what happened in Fukushima Daiichi, and what were the preceding WANO ratings?’ Nuclear industry insiders suggest a historically varied culture of safety and transparency between operators and countries. A WANO review of the Fukushima Daiichi accident recommended greater compunction for members to undergo mandatory reviews, greater visibility for WANO, more focus on emergency preparedness, and no more than four-year interval between peer reviews of operations for all members.34

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was created in 1957 to help allay fears in nuclear technology and differentiate between the peaceful uses of atomic energy. The Agency’s genesis was US President Eisenhower’s ‘Atoms for Peace’ address to the UN General Assembly

34 WANO Post-Fukushima Commission, Final Report. 30th September 2011. Chair: Tom Mitchell, CEO Ontario Power Generation.

December 1953. The IAEA now has more than 2500 staff working in some 100 countries. Funding mainly comes through the UN system (2014 operating budget €345 million) with about one-third of the budget allocated to verification.

In 2008 the World Institute for Nuclear Security (WINS) was established with representation from nuclear operators, industry, and academia. The vision of WINS is: “to help improve security of nuclear and high hazard radioactive materials so that they are secure from unauthorised access, theft, sabotage and diversion and cannot be utilised for terrorist or other nefarious purposes”. WINS is closely affiliated with IAEA; both are headquartered in Vienna.

IAEA represents mainly nations and therefore takes on a geopolitical flavor of oversight and regulation – ‘trust but verify’. The organization as part of the overall UN system is also subject to similar staffing practices (appointments by country and overall UN hiring practices). Countries attempt to exert influence through the organization.

WANO has a different mandate, with arguably greater pragmatism and professionalism. The operating budget – as mainly contributed by operating entities – is much more modest with a greater reliance on secondments. WANO has participation of every civil nuclear power plant operator (133 members with 517 reactors). Membership is voluntary, and degree of support and adherence to the organization’s mandate obviously varies, however the strength of peer influence, potential increases in professionalism, and an understanding that safety is a shared responsibility, is sufficiently compelling that no organization opts out. Participation in WANO is a key ingredient in many community-based social licenses permitting facility operation (or perhaps more likely, the failure to participate in WANO could degrade an operator’s social license).

WANO is ‘engineer heavy’: key staff and board members are predominantly engineers. This is both strength and weakness. The peer-to-peer approach provides significant support; largely as plant operators typically share a common background and vernacular. Where this can become a weakness is when cultural norms and business practices play a significant role in plant safety. Peer-to-peer reviews that focus on cultural practices are more difficult to undertake. Recognizing this challenge WANO’s review of events at Fukushima Daiichi calls for a greater emphasis on mandatory reviews and an assessment of emergency preparedness ‘outside the fence’.

Applying a ‘WANO-approach’ to cities would suggest the following criteria for the new organization: (i) bulk of funding should be from own (member) sources; (ii) heavy reliance on secondments; (iii) regional offices with as ‘light management oversight’ as possible; (iv) limit the focus, e.g. WANO’s focus on safety could be a city focus on sustainability (that includes resilience); (v) ideally no opting-out by member cities, and (vi) self-management.

3.4.2 Geoengineering – Emergence of a ‘Wicked Solution’?

When contemplating a cities approach to sustainable development geoengineering emerges as a useful case study of how ‘wicked problems’35 and their solutions may evolve. Globally, cities will likely have as large a role in application of any planet-wide atmospheric solution, as will countries and corporations. Many important cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise due to their coastal proximity. Some will likely agitate more forcefully for ‘solutions’ than even their national counterparts. An example of this was already provided in the last US Presidential election when Mayor Bloomberg (notionally a Republican) argued loudly for candidate Obama to address climate change in his campaign platform (providing conditional support).

Cairns and Stirling (2014) illustrate how ‘geo-engineering’ is already a difficult term to clearly define. A similarity shared with sustainable development. Geoengineering, like sustainable development is about maintaining planetary systems versus concentrating global power. Galaz et al (2012) reinforce this argument when summarizing global environmental governance and planetary boundaries. Biermann (2012) discuses planetary boundaries and earth system governance, suggesting that social tipping points are likely to trump technological step-changes. Dearing et al. (2014) suggest the need for a safe and just regional approach as a key strategy to build urban resilience.

As climate perturbations grow, (some) cities are likely to experience impacts disproportionately greater than other cities, corporations and countries. Cities are home to the majority of infrastructure and therefore will experience the greatest financial impact. More developed cities (typically ‘richer’) with more infrastructure will experience greater financial loss, while less-

35 A wicked problem has no clear solution and is characterized by incomplete, contradictory, inter- dependent and dynamic requirements. Climate change is considered a wicked problem.

developed cities with more informal poor, will experience disproportionately high social costs. Host countries may not be able to average costs and impacts. Individual cities will seek recourse, especially coastal and water-stressed cities. Most geoengineering options are relatively low cost to implement. Within the next 35 years it is possible that a city may be goaded by local citizens and businesses to implement climate action, either on its own, or collectively with similarly impacted cities.

Keith et al (2010) argue that research on solar-radiation management needs to be urgently enhanced. Cities may heed this call, more than countries.

The 122 Future Fives cities proposed in this thesis to enter into negotiations toward collective sustainable development may well enter into a cooperative ‘shadow agreement’ on the use and oversight of geoengineering36.

Pimm et al (2014) provide another glimpse of cities responding to complex problems when they review biodiversity and its heterogeneity. In protecting biodiversity, individual cities will likely be tasked with varying roles of habitat protection based on their location (and purchasing practices).

3.5 Shifting Cities

In 1800 only one city, Beijing, had a population with over 1 million residents. The world’s ten largest cities each had an average population of about 614,000. China, reflecting its economic might at the time had three of the top ten largest cities. Japan also had three, and the UK, France, Turkey and Italy each had one (Fig. 4.2 and Appendix 3).

In 1900 the locus of economy and global stature shifted significantly. London was the world’s largest city with 6.5 million people. Manchester was also one of the top ten largest cities. The US, moving up quickly in economic heft had three cities in the top ten (New York, Chicago and Philadelphia). Japan dropped from three cities in the top ten a century earlier to just one – Tokyo. China had none. France, Germany and Austria each had one, and Russia, gaining in prominence

36 Geoengineering includes a spectrum of actions ranging from painting roofs white, addition of iron to seawater to more aggressive methods such as release of atmospheric sulphur.

had two – Moscow and St. Petersburg. The average size of a top ten city had increased more than four-fold from 1800, with 2.6 million population in 1900.

Shift forward another 100 years to 2000 and the average top ten city size grew more than seven- fold to 20 million residents each; the largest city, Tokyo, with 36 million people. Beijing re- emerged as the fourth largest (and Shanghai appeared in the top ten as well). Mexico City and Sao Paulo emerged in the top ten. Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata highlight India’s (re)emergence. Only New York remains in the top ten with an Anglo-European origin. Contrast this to 1900 when nine out of the top ten cities was in the US and Europe.

Shift forward yet another 100 years to 2100 and the average city size is again anticipated to triple from today. The average size of the top ten cities – Lagos, Kinshasa, Dar es Salaam, Mumbai, Delhi, Khartoum, Niamey, Dhaka, Kolkata, Kabul – is projected to be around 64 million. Lagos will likely be the largest city ever, reaching 88 million people. By the end of this century half of the top ten cities will likely be in Africa and half in South Asia (Hoornweg and Pope, 2014).

2050 provides a useful waypoint. The top ten cities will likely have shifted to (i) Mumbai, India; (ii) Delhi, India; (iii) Dhaka, Bangladesh; (iv) Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; (v) Kolkata, India; (vi) Lagos, Nigeria; (vii) Tokyo, Japan; (viii) Karachi, Pakistan; (ix) New York City-Newark, USA, and; (x) Mexico City, Mexico.

A pattern of waves of urbanization emerges, beginning in 1800 when only Beijing was larger than 1 million. From 1800 to 1900 growth of cities concentrated in Europe and the US (as did the growth of wealth). From 1900 to 2000 large cities became more widespread. Urbanization spread to Latin America and grew in East Asia and South Asia. Going forward, the next wave of urbanization is South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan). The last, and largest wave of city growth will be Sub-Sahara Africa.

Figures 3.10 and 3.11, the Predicted rise of the 101 largest cities to 2100 (World Urbanization Prospects, WUP, extrapolation) illustrate the massive shift in relative influence of cities that will take place this century. This is illustrated well in Figure 3.1 that shows the world’s cities with populations of 5 million and more. In 2006 there are 50 cities with populations over 5 million. In 2050 the number increases to 122, numbers in East Asia start to decline and Sub Saharan Africa

increases from 6 in 2006 to 27 (and is now the Region with most cities). This trend continues to the close of the century when there are expected to be 155 cities with populations in excess of 5 million, 51 in Sub Saharan Africa, 41 in South Asia, and East Asia plummets to just 5. Demographically the 21st Century will be about the relative decline of East Asia (especially China) and Latin America, and the rise of Africa and South Asia.

Most geopolitics is assessed from the perspective of countries. Institutions like the United Nations and the World Bank, along with agencies like International Organization of Standards, plus projection of power through national militaries, is viewed from the objectives of countries. A country’s objectives typically reflect the aggregate influence of citizens (with varying influence per capita, regionally, ethnically, etc.). When viewing likely future events from the perspective of cities for the remainder of this century several massive trends emerge. These include:

• The influence of East Asia, especially China, significantly declines (2020 – 2060) • By the end of the century the world’s top ten largest cities are all in countries that are currently low income. • Sub-Sahara Africa’s cities will grow the most in size and number (and likely relative geopolitical influence) of all regions. • South Asia is the region second only to Africa likely to undergo major growth. • Indicative projections of energy demand and municipal solid waste generation illustrate the scale of the challenge facing humanity. Resource provisioning and assimilative capacities of ecosystems are well beyond sustainable levels.

Appendix 3 and 4 provide a summary of city population estimates to 2100 (Hoornweg and Pope, 2014). Four growth projections are provided; WUP (world urbanization prospect) and shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP1 (sustainability); SS2 (middle of the road) and SSP3 (fragmentation). As cities increase in relative share of global population, and overall size and wealth generation, their importance in the international sustainable development also increases. Chapter 4, following, discusses how cities are beginning to define sustainable development, from their perspective.

Table 3.1a: Sustainability Measurement and Tools - Prior to the Rio Earth Summit (1992)

Approach or Name of Example(s) of Implementation Activity Approach Cooperative Balinese Rice Shared water rights integrated with Tri Hita Karna, Farming Subaks (religious tenet emphasising harmony), practiced more than 1000 years Governing for Seven Generations ‘In every deliberation, we must consider the impact Future on the seventh generation...’ - the Constitution of Generations the Iroquois Nations (more than 500 years ago) Sustainable Yield E.g. Timber Royal Mining Office (Germany) and Hanns Carl Harvest in von Carlowitz suggest Nachhaltiger Ertrag Forestry (sustained yield) for timber supply (1713) Statistical Gini Coefficent Corrado Gini, Variability and Mutability, 1912, Dispersion relative distribution (usually used to measure (Income Equality) income inequality) Cost-Benefit Jules Dupuit in France analyzes merits of bridge Analysis and possible toll rates (for Pres Bonaparte) 1848 US Corp of Engineers mandated to use C-B analysis in 1936 Federal Navigation Act Measure of Gross Domestic William Petty creates first estimate of national Economy Product income, 1665 (for England – Improved 1696 by King George to measure domestic product by income, production and expenditure) Simon Kuznet presents concept of GDP to US Congress (National Income, 1929-35) Wassily Leontief develops economic input-output model, 1936 (same year John Maynard Keynes publishes “General Theory” and commissions Meade & Stone to estimate national income and expenditure) Upon coronation King Wangchuck of Bhutan declares country’s pursuit is ‘Gross Domestic Happiness’ (1972) UN’s Human Development Index (1990)

Measure of Well- Gross Domestic World Values Survey (started 1981, now available Being Well-Being for more than 100 countries) Product Labelling Germany’s Blue Angel Program (1978) Environment Canada’s EcoLogo certified products (1988) Environmental Legislative Canada Water Act (1970); Department of Agencies Establishment Environment (1971), advocated ‘ecosystem management’ US EPA started December, 1970

Probabilistic Risk Risk Informed US National Research Council (1982); US Nuclear Assessment Decision Making Regulatory Commission (1983) and NASA Material Flows Urban Metabolism Wolman, Scientific America (1965); ‘Industrial Assessment Ecology’ (1989) Urban GHG emissions inventories (approx. 1989) Equivalency Disability Harvard University develops concept for the World Aggregation Adjusted Life Bank as means to measure overall disease burden Year (DALY) (1990) Strategic Decision Game Theory Mixed Strategy Equilibria, zero-sum games (Von Making Neuman’s minimax theorem, 1928) Tucker’s ‘Prisoner’s dilemma’ (1950) Life Cycle Coca Cola retains Midwest Research Institute in Assessment 1969 to compare types of beverage containers Proctor & Gamble retains Franklin Associates to compare packaging and surfactants (1988) Systems Schlager (1953) – ‘Systems Engineering key to Engineering modern development’ (key role in engineering) Interdisciplinary (lifecycle) field of engineering Schlager 1956 (Bell Telephone Laboratories) National Council on Systems Engineering (NCOSE, 1990) ‘Limits to Growth’, MIT, global ecosystems modelling. ‘Ecological engineering’ (1962) coined by H.T. Odum – Systems Ecology and energy/material flows 1983 Scenario Analysis Herman Kahn and Hudson Institute for scenario and Integrated planning and public policy (1961) Assessment Royal Dutch Shell scenario planning (1971) Contingent Willingness to Pay Surveys proposed by Ciriacy-Wantrup (1947) Valuation NOAA convenes high-level advisory panel on survey methodology (1993) Social Ashoka: Innovators for the Public 1981 Entrepreneurship Various – usually individual metrics Grameen Bank, 1983 Philosophy Jeremy Bentham (1748-1832): Greatest happiness principle. John Stuart Mill (1806-1873): liberty, scientific method, and utilitarianism. Gifford Pinchot (1865-1946): ‘conservation ethic’ and Wise Use, US Forestry Service Aldo Leopold (1887-1948): land ethic (e.g. A Sand County Almanac)

Table 3.1b: Sustainability Measurement and Tools, 1992 – 2002; Rio to Rio+10

Approach or Name of Example(s) of Implementation - Events Activity Approach Use of Indicators Simple indicators Numerous examples, including Australia’s Sustainable Forest Management Framework, e.g., Indicator 1.1.a – Area of forest by forest type and tenure Compound and World Economic Forum’s sustainably-adjusted complex indicators Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) Assessments Environmental Standard practice in many countries for all new Impact Assessment developments (EIA), Social Impact Assessment (SIA) Life Cycle Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels Fossil Fuel Assessment (LCA) Baseline Calculation Methodology (RSB-STD-01- 003-02) Framework European Research European Common Indicators (1999 – 2003) Assessments Projects LASALA – Local Authorities’ Self-Assessment of Local Agenda 21 (1999 – 2002) Indicators to Assess New Urban Services (2000 – 2003) Urban-Nexus (2011 – 2014) Maintenance of Triple Bottom Line The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) founded in Capital Stocks and (TBL) Boston (1997) Flows Sustainability Schemes and Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators of Standards for Sustainable Forest Management; Measuring, Forest Stewardship Council - Certification; Assessing, The Carbon Disclosure Project (2000); Reporting and The Standards Map: information on 120 voluntary Certifying standards operating in over 200 countries, and Sustainability certifying products and services in more than 80 economic sectors; ISO 9000 Quality Standards; EcoChoice, Blue Dot, Fair Trade; ‘Dolphin Safe’; Jantzi Social Index; energystar; Acumen (Capital) Fund, 2001 (Driver-Impact) Pressure-State- OECD: Environmental Indicators 2008; Guidelines Pressure-State- Response (PSR) for Multinational Enterprises (voluntary standards) Response (DIPSR) - 1976 Accounting System of SEEA Central Framework, adopted in 2012 as an System Integrated international standard by the United Nations Approaches Environmental and Statistical Commission, supported by the European Economic Commission, FAO, IMF, OECD, UN and World Bank

Accounting (SEEA) Consumption- United Kingdom 2011-2013 – Department for based Accounting Energy and Climate Change (DECC) with the (CBA) University of Leeds, developing a CBA Indicator for GHG emissions Supply Chain Global Forest Watch (with WRI, 1997) Indexes Dow Jones Sustainability Index (1999) Figure 3.9 Yale’s Environmental Sustainability Index (2000) Risk Assessment Risk Assessment ISO 31000 – Risk Management; Dealing with and Management Risk Management – Principles and Guidelines Uncertainty Equivalence Ecological William Rees (1992); Wackernagel and Rees Measurement Footprint (1996) Subjective Well- Cognitive and affective evaluations; Ed Denier Being (2000) – proposes a US national Index of SWB Rating of Sustainable BREEAM (Building Research Establishment Buildings Buildings Environmental Assessment Methodology, 1990). US Green Building Council (1993), LEED (leadership in Energy and Environment Design, 2000). Canadian GBC (2002) BOMA (founded 1907) provides advisory services and ratings for building owners Rating of Cities GaWC – Globalization and World Cities, Beaverstock et al., 1998 – e.g., London and NYC ‘Alpha++’ Saskia Sassen, The Global City (1991), NYC, Tokyo and London. Now city raking and indices common and widespread, e.g. Mercer Index of Livability, 2000 Management Best Management Cotton Australia’s MYBMP, a best management Approaches: Practices (BMP), practice tool for Australia’s cotton growers; Adherence to Codes of Practice; BSI Group – first EMS (BS 7750) Prescribed Environmental ISO 14000 series (1996); ISO 14001 used by more Approaches Management than 250,000 organizations in 159 countries (ISO, Systems (EMS) 2010) Six Sigma Motorola introduces quality control scheme (1988) Cost Curves Marginal Rose in prominence post Kyoto Protocol Abatement Cost e.g. McKinsey Global GHG abatement cost curve Curves to 2030 Adaptive Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency – Management Operational Policy Statement: Adaptive Management Measures under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act

Engineering Strategic Guidance Sustainable Development in the Consulting Principles Engineering Industry. FIDIC (2000) list of 18 objectives Clift and Morris (2002), Engineering with a human face. Dealing with uncertainty; social acceptance.

Table 3.1c: Sustainability Measurement and Tools, 2002 – 2012; Rio+10 to Rio+20

Approach or Name of Example(s) of Implementation - Events Activity Approach Scenario Analysis Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Integrated (IPCC) – 5th Assessment Report (AR5) Assessment Shell Oil scenario planning continues Environmental E.g. Fare et al (2004) apply environmental Performance Index performance index to sample of OECD countries Esty and Porter (2005) – National Environmental Performance (data-driven and analytical rigour) Millennium Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Ecosystem UK National Ecosystem Assessment 2011 Assessment (MA) - Ecosystem Services Report Resilience Resilience Practice: Engaging the Sources of our Thinking, Sustainability, Brian Walker and David Salt (2012), Thresholds and exploring the application of resilience theory to Planetary real-world situations Boundaries Rockstrom et al., A safe operating space for humanity, (climate change, ocean acidification, ozone depletion, N and P cycles, freshwater use, biodiversity loss, land use – plus pollution and aerosols) 2009 Measuring City City Indicators, Federation of Canadian Municipalities, ‘Quality of Performance GCIF (2007) Life in Canadian Communities’ (2001) European Common Indicators, Towards a Local Sustainability Profile (2003) The power and potential of well-being indicators. A pilot project. nef and Nottingham City Council (2004) World Bank discussion paper, The Current Status of City Indicators. “City Indicators: Now to Nanjing” presented at WUF3, Vancouver (2006) Urban Growth City Scaling West and Bettencourt propose city scaling – Modelling economy scales super-linearly while infrastructure scales sub-linearly

Emissions GHG Protocol GHG emissions inventory (national, regional and Inventory city) – Scopes 1, 2 and 3; ISO 14064 (2006) from WBCSD-WRI 1998 Adaptive Adaptive governance and climate change, Ronald Governance D. Brunner, Amanda H. Lynch (2010), arguing for decentralized adaptive governance to provide diversity and innovation in addressing climate change Corporate Social Various corporate forms, ISO 26000 (November Responsibility 2010): e.g. Marks & Spencer, Plan A; Body Shop; Patagonia. Sustainability Consortium (2009) – ASU, Univ of Arkansas and Walmart – product sustainability metrics (now more than 100 member companies). Engineering Strategic Guidance Shanghai Declaration on Engineering and Principles Sustainable Development. WFEO (2004) – commit to: ethics; interdisciplinarity; education and capacity building; gender issues; international cooperation. Abraham (2006) proposed nine principles. National directives: ICE, UK (2003); IPE, NZ (2004); Eng Aus., IIE, Spain (2005); CSCE and Engineers Canada (2006). Meadows, Thinking in Systems (2008). Engineering Tools Infrastructure Arup’s ASPIRE (2008) with DFID and Engineers Ratings Against Poverty (Fig 3.8) Envision Infrastructure Rating System by ISI Numerous other tools, e.g., BE2ST, GreenLITES, Greenroads, I-LAST and INVEST

Table 3.1d: Sustainability Measurement and Tools - post-2012; after Rio+20

Approach or Name of Example(s) of Implementation - Events Activity Approach Defining Urban Consultative or Data, Boundaries, Competiveness: The Toronto Boundaries and Directive Urban Region in Global Context. Global City Borders Indicators Facility (2013) Community World Council on Sustainable development of communities: Indicators City Data Indicators for City Services and Quality of Life. ISO 37120 (2014) Sustainable Cities Guidance Indicators of the Emerging and Sustainable Cities Document Initiative, Inter-American Development Bank, 2013 Certu, European Commission Resource Efficient UNEP – International Resource Panel – Cities ‘Decoupling’ Inventories Global or regional WWF Living Planet Report (2014) – ‘half of all assessments global wildlife lost since 1970’ Assessment Tools Higg Index Apparel and footwear products – used by hundreds of organizations. Sustainability Consortium (100+ corporate members, 7 retail sectors) Modelling, data Predictive Predictive policing, e.g. Santa Cruz management, Analytics ‘Smart Cities’ Algorithms in Traffic management, e.g. Lyon, Stockholm Policy Making Data mining and City management through data collection and systems predictive modelling, e.g. Rio de Janeiro, New development York, Kunming Indexes Sustainability Yale’s Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) modified to Environmental Performance Index (EPI), 2005 – national rankings published annually (with WEF). Adaptation Notre Dame – Global Adaptation Index (GAIN) – transferred from Global Adaptation Institute, 2013 – national rankings published annually NB. Ballantine (CitiesToday, Oct 2014) and Monnen & Clark (2013) list more than 150 benchmarking tools for sustainable cities metrics, e.g. Corporate Knights, Siemens Green City Index, AT Kearney’s Global Cities Index, Mercer, ICLEI, C40, Covenant of Mayors, GRI, Eurostat Urban Audit. Poveda and Lipsett (2014) outline more than 600 existing approaches to sustainability assessment (mainly for buildings and infrastructure projects). Tables 1a-c adapted from World Economic Forum, Designing for Action: Principles of Effective Sustainability Measurement (2013). European research projects from Moreno Pires et al (2014). Engineering principles adapted from Gagnon et al. (2008).

Figure 3.1: The World’s Shifting Cities – By Region; Cities with Populations above 5 million in 2006, 2050, 2100

From: Hoornweg and Pope, 2014 (see Appendix 3)

Figure 3.2: The Struggle to Govern the Commons (Fig 3 Dietz et al, 2003)

Authors: Thomas Dietz, Elinor Ostrom and Paul C. Stern Source: Science, New Series, Vol. 302, No. 5652 (Dec. 12, 2003), pp. 1907-1912

Figure 3.3: The Changing Landscape of Corporate Sustainability Leadership since 1997 (GlobeScan/SustainAbility)

From: The 2014 Sustainability Leaders: A GlobeScan/SustainAbility Survey

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Figure 3.4a: Engineering for Sustainable Development: Guiding Principles

The Royal Academy of Engineering September 2005

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Figure 3.4b: Engineering for Sustainable Development: Guiding Principles

The Royal Academy of Engineering September 2005

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Figure 3.5: Humanity’s Unsustainable Environmental Footprint

Arjen Y. Hoekstra and Thomas O. Wiedmann – Science 344, 1114 (2014)

“Estimated global footprints versus their suggested maximum sustainable level. The inner green shaded circle represents the maximum sustainable footprint. Red bars represent estimates of the current level of each global footprint. The EF of 18.2 billion global hectares (in 2008) exceeds the maximum sustainable EF of 12 billion global hectares by about 50%. The green WF has been estimated at 6700 billion m3/year (average for 1996 to 2005); a reference level is not yet available. Blue WF estimates vary from 1000 to 1700 billion m3/year and should be compared to the global maximum sustainable blue WF of 1100 to 4500 billion m3/year. The gray WF has been conservatively estimated at 1400 billion m3/year (average for 1996 to 2005); in two-thirds of the world’s river basins, the pollution assimilation capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus has been fully consumed. The CF of 46 to 55 Gt CO2-equiv./year (in 2010) exceeds by more than a factor of 2 the estimated maximum sustainable CF of 18 to 25 Gt CO2-equiv./year, which must be achieved by 2050 if the maximum 2°C global warming target is to be met. The MF has been estimated at 70 Gt/year, and a reduction to 8 ton/cap has been suggested as a sustainable level.” References in original article.

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Figure 3.6: ‘Circles of Sustainability’

This image shows the sustainability of the metropolis of Melbourne across the four domains of sustainability - economics, ecology, politics and culture - as developed by the UN Global Compact, Cities Programme. The image was developed by Paul James using Adobe Illustrator, based on the Cities Programme template. Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Circles_of_Sustainability_image_%28assessment_- _Melbourne_2011%29.jpg

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Figure 3.7: World Business Council for Sustainable Development and United Nations Human Development Index, Vision 2050

Box 1.1: Meeting the dual goals of sustainability – High human development and low ecological impact

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Figure 3.8: ASPIRE | A Sustainability Poverty and Infrastructure Routine for Evaluation

Typical ASPIRE assessment output. From ARUP and Engineers Against Poverty.

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Figure 3.9: 2014 Environmental Performance Index, Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, Yale University, and Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University

The 2014 EPI framework includes 9 issues and 20 indicators. Access to electricity is not included in the figure because it is not used to calculate country scores.

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Figure 3.10: Predicted Rise of the 101 Largest Cities in 2100 (WUP Extrapolation)

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Figure 3.11: Predicted Change of the 101 Largest Cities in 2010 (WUP Extrapolation)

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Chapter 4: Cities Defining Sustainable Development

Cities, as regional centers and as agglomerations of individuals, neighborhoods and communities, need to define their own version of sustainable development. For this definition to be a meaningful guide it needs to be both locally relevant, and globally considerate. A possible deal between cities to define and move toward sustainable development requires a credible process and a few key tools.

4.1 Structuring ‘The Deal’

An ‘engineering approach’ may provide the best opportunity for the world to reach sustainable development. An engineering approach would focus on systems and applied knowledge (that could be regularly updated) and is based on regular iterations and enhancements. This process, or engineering approach, is readily apparent in automobiles (e.g., a new updated model every year) and software engineering (e.g., regular updates included as part of the service). Engineers are likely not able to specifically define sustainable development per se but rather through the professional application of a factor of safety (or factor of sustainability) move society toward greater sustainability.

Cities are well positioned to lead an effort toward sustainable development. As a starting point larger, fast growing cities, should be brought into any possible global negotiations. A forward approach is proposed with the Future Five cities expected to have populations of 5 million or more by 2050 (Hoornweg and Pope, 2014). The population estimates of cities provided in this thesis, are estimates that should be subject to regular updating. City populations are provided as a starting point for the engineering profession.

A key aspect of sustainability is the provision and use of resources, and assimilation of by- products. Cities, as connected but unique systems provide a useful scale of analysis. A scientific, or systems approach, can be taken when investigating sustainability aspects of cities. Scientists, engineers and public policy experts can use the flow of materials through cities – with credible metrics – as a powerful surrogate for sustainable development.

The proposed agreement would focus on how each of the Future Five cities could be sustained. As cities are immobile (they cannot get out of harm’s way), and as this agreement is structured

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for at least 35 years, significant uncertainty exists. For example in larger countries like China and the US populations and economic activity can shift between cities. Countries and barriers to mobility are expected to remain in place this century, however the negotiations envisaged are for all cities to support each other in concert with, or not, national objectives.

As mentioned in Chapter 2, ‘If all men were angels, governments would not be needed’ (James Madison) nor would negotiations be needed to achieve sustainable development, which is in every city and country’s long-term interest. Human frailties emerge in many ways – power struggles, contests over resources, tribalism, ego, greed, insecurities, and too little thought to the future. Human frailties and limits of governance usually manifest differently at national or local levels. For example, cities rarely go to war with each other. They use country frameworks for this. Much of today’s unrest however is not country versus country, but rather is civil strife, regional factions, local unrest, and local manifestation of broader geopolitical interests.

A global agreement between cities may be seen as more pragmatic, and catering to local priorities, albeit globally connected. New tensions with this approach are likely. For example many citizens are initially excluded. There may be little support, for example in the rest of Canada as Toronto on its own enters global agreements. ‘Toronto’ like most of the other large cities will need to establish methods on how the entire urban region can be represented through a single voice.

The methods and process of negotiation will be critical. For Toronto, Ontario and the rest of Canada will need to be highly supportive (and insistent) of an agreement. The participating cities will need to feel as if they are representing their countries and the rest of the world (although they will obviously need to negotiate for what is best for them). Similar to shadow pricing, a ‘shadow agreement’ is envisaged. Initially this is not anticipated to be a legally binding agreement.

Countries expend considerable effort ensuring access to global resources (and markets) while trying to keep national borders from contracting (if not expanding). Larger countries like Canada, Spain, Russia, China, Indonesia, and many of the fractured Sub-Saharan Africa countries, have areas agitating for independence, or seeking ‘special consideration’. Much of the strength of the US comes from the absence of independence movements of aggrieved regions.

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However, even in the US there are factions like parts of Alaska, Hawaii and in the South agitating for greater independence. Economists argue major benefits accrue from a larger, stronger European Union and yet major forces push to separate.

Cities, especially urban agglomerations, on the other hand worry less about being divided and more about everyone ‘getting along’. Social factions obviously exist in cities, however the structure of negotiations envisaged in this approach is to work toward an agreement that optimizes utility for each participating city (whole urban agglomeration). Presumably this would also be good for their host countries and smaller national partner cities. The Future Five negotiating cites would be tasked to assume a leadership role for themselves within a global agreement, as well as developing and encouraging a global framework that facilitates a similar move toward sustainability by countries, corporations and other cities. This process largely places the onus of accountability, i.e. leadership with the participating cities. However this mantle of leadership will likely be diminished (somewhat) by efforts at political positioning most cities, and their leaders would undertake.

Local governments usually have a degree of political tension with senior levels of government, vying for less constituent consternation with taxes and public policy requirements. Local governments are often of a different political party than provincial/state and national representatives. As these proposed negotiations are structured to be open and completely inclusive for all Future Five cities (with proxy negotiating teams if required) there should be less likelihood of outcomes being good for the city but not good for its respective state and national government. Inclusion of both political and technical (i.e. bureaucratic) representatives for each participating city will also temper (some) political posturing.

The C40, for example, is a ‘leadership-heavy’ agency. Mayors started the agency37 and mayors still lead the Board and oversee annual conferences. But unlike a head of State representing a country, a mayor rarely represents his or her entire urban agglomeration. In Toronto, for

37 C40 was largely started by the Cities of London (Mayor Ken Livingston and his assistant Nicky Gavron) and New York (Mayor Bloomberg). The organization initially started as C5, then C15, C40 (that now has more than 70 members).

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example, Mayor Tory would be quickly reminded if speaking overseas, by one of the GTA’s other 27 mayors and Regional Chairs that most of ‘Toronto’ is outside Toronto’s City limits.

Partitioning and changing local borders challenge most urban areas. Power utilities, water supply (source and distribution), waste management (collection and disposal), food supply, transportation, and fuel supplies: these systems usually operate at different scales to a specific city, or urban areas. This complexity is exacerbated with national controls on currency, citizenship, military, and legal framework. Also with many of the larger cities global trade and international organizations associated with globalization play a critical role, e.g. ISO, UN, IFIs. Any agreement developed between participating cities will need to reflect senior levels of government and international organizations, however an iterative process is expected to emerge where the changes needed for sustainable development by 2050 as negotiated by participating cities would influence changes in other governments, corporations and agencies.

Mayor La Guardia of New York City, when speaking of the pragmatic nature of cities, is attributed with saying, “There is no Democrat or Republican way to pick up the garbage”. Perhaps cities can highlight that there is no Democrat-Republican, Conservative-Liberal, left- right, way to bring about sustainable development.

Probably for the first decade or so, any ‘negotiations’ as envisaged in this thesis would be conducted by representatives of the cities (academic and municipal employees), rather than heads of state, or mayors. However as the negotiations proposed here are underpinned by solid scientific assessments and open source metrics, any future ‘political’ negotiations would need to (eventually) take into account the experience developed in this proposed process.

4.1.1 The Scope of Negotiations

A signed agreement between the Future Five cities is not likely. Significant funds would be required to implement any agreement and participating cities will need to negotiate in turn with their respective regional and national governments. A lasting agreement without some method of wealth transfer is unlikely, however every city will have a publicly vetted and continuously monitored ‘path to sustainability’. The engineering profession (among others) would be well positioned to work with all cities to help define the path toward sustainability. As the urban

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agglomeration is the unit of negotiation, and a systems approach is proposed, the agreement should be (slightly) less political.

In some cities agreement may not be possible on how the city is represented internationally (the urban area). In this case, surrogate representatives such as the Dean (or equivalent) of local engineering schools, or academic Presidents might be invited to represent the city. Negotiations boil down to the following: (i) agreeing on what the planetary boundaries are for the physical and socio-economic indicators proposed – or proposing new indicators; (ii) assigning a global share of this for the Future Five cities to 2050; (iii) outline local city limits; (iv) develop preliminary sustainability cost curves for each city and agree to keep these updated; (v) assess each city’s level within the hierarchy of sustainability (Fig. 4.1).

Negotiations are not expected to deliver a final product but rather an ongoing process, supported by the engineering profession and academia, and others, should emerge. Also as many of the metrics (Chapter 5) are subjective, the process of peer review and ongoing professional inputs (broader than the single city or country), should provide a mechanism to encourage more evidence-based public policy development.

Another important aspect of the proposed negotiations is that they will encourage better coordination of national and international agencies working within participating cities (as outlined in Chapter 3). The sustainability cost curves and boundaries mappings outlined in Chapters 5 and 6 provide a powerful tool to coordinate activities in cities (and enhance efficiency). The negotiation process should facilitate greater availability and use of tools supporting better infrastructure planning.

A negotiated agreement is less likely, and initially less important, than developing an ongoing process of monitoring sustainability at the city level. This first requires a simple yet comprehensive assessment of conditions in Future Five cities (i.e. Tables 5.1 and 5.2) and notional outlines of key urban infrastructure (as represented on through preliminary sustainability cost curves). Volunteer engineers through programs such as Engineers Without Borders (EWB) could help define these initial city assessments.

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4.1.2 A Metropolitan Approach

All of the world’s larger cities (Future Fives) are urban agglomerations. Some are made up of more than 40 local governments. Metropolitan Lagos (eventually to be the world’s largest city) is made up of 20 local governments. The boundary of the metropolitan area is often ill-defined. ‘Toronto’ for example is an urban area with at least six unique boundaries.38 Other examples: City of Jakarta 10.1 million vs metro ‘Jabodetabek’ 24.1 million; Mexico City 8.8 million vs metro area 21.2 million; Mumbai city 13.9 million vs metro 21.2 million.

A metropolitan-scale approach is critical as most of the large energy and materials intensive services, like transportation, need a metro-wide analysis. This often makes analysis more difficult as each local government may have disparate interests, however the broad efficiencies envisaged from sustainable cities will not materialize without comprehensive metro-wide planning and delivery. Values in Appendix 3 are assumed to be metropolitan areas (confirmation needed by cities and national governments).

In this thesis the entity of research, and its respective area, is the metropolitan region or urban agglomeration. This could be likened to a commuter-shed or pomerium.39 A modern, albeit incomplete, method of defining the larger cities and their urban agglomeration is the (urban) area served by respective international airport(s). In addition to density, the urban area can often be defined through the provision of basic services, e.g. those areas with piped water supply, waste collection, and minimum standards of health care and education provision.

The areas proposed in this approach (metro cities) is consistent with the United Nations World Urbanization Projections and the urban database from Angel et al (2011, to be updated in 2015). Urban areas for the Future Five cities (as a start) would also be provided on common data sites such as Wikipedia.

38 Toronto’s six urban boundaries include: (i) the City of Toronto (population of 2.62 million); (ii) the Census Metropolitan Area (5.71 million); (iii) the Greater Toronto Area (6.13 million); (iv) the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (6.65 million); the Toronto Urban Region (8.05 million), and; (v) the Golden Horseshoe (9.09 million). 39 Pomerium, originally referred to the scared area adjacent to the city walls and fortifications of Rome. Later broadened to refer to the religious extent, or hinterland, to which a city traditionally exerted influence.

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4.2 Why Cities?

Cities, as urban agglomerations, provide several different attributes not typically seen in their national government counterparts. These include relative permanence, pragmatism, and more of a complex systems dynamic. Countries are usually a political construct whereas cities tend to be more organic. The concept of sovereignty is usually not applicable to a city. A larger city is often partitioned by several political borders, e.g., Sydney, Australia (metro area, or ‘Sydneysiders’) is made up of 38 local governments.

Military analogies are useful. Niccolò Machiavelli (The Prince, 1532) and Sun Tzu (The Art of War, circa 500BC) both saw war as a means to protect stature and access to resources. They saw this war being waged on behalf of cities by the monarchy or nation. Sun Tzu perhaps saw war more as a ‘necessary evil’, while Machiavelli also saw it as an extension of politics. The two men argued for speed in dispatching battles and advised the need for deception (Sun Tzu) and distinction between public and private morality (Machiavelli). Historically cities urged the creation of regional collections (countries) which in turn exerted power on behalf of constituent cities. Wars are likely to continue and civil strife increase.

These proposed negotiations would not stop wars, however they would serve as a powerful indicator of what is the cost of those conflicts (cost to well-being and local and global ecosystem degradation). They would also make deception (of resource use) more difficult.

There is only one voter and one taxpayer, yet some of our most entrenched tensions are between governments tasked with representing us at different scales, e.g. municipal, provincial, and national. Many cities and their local regions may be at political odds with their national government, e.g. Barcelona, Catalonia and Spain or Montreal, Quebec and Canada. Often, as with countries like Mexico, China, and Argentina, the role of mayor serves as precursor to national politics.

Many cities may also be at odds internally across local jurisdictions. For example, the City of Toronto and Region of Durham rarely vote along similar lines, or Sydney’s 38 local governments are fraught with internal political turmoil. Often tensions exist within large cities between city-core and suburbs. This negotiation process is designed to first, develop a consensus

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and common voice for each of the Future Five participating cities. This in itself will provide powerful impetus to other levels of government and other cities and corporations.

Berger (2014) in The Unsustainable City argues that ‘sustainability is binary’ and cities are “the very idea of unsustainability, built in contradiction to nature, unlike rural living within nature.” This may be the case, however an agreement toward sustainability by the world’s largest cities may be sufficient to tilt the global scales to sustainability.

4.2.1 Cities and the Growth in Global Wealth and Health

Table 4.1 shows the historic growth in wealth from 1500 to today, with a projection to 2100. Per capita wealth and health (as measured by life expectancy) were largely consistent from 1500 to late 1800s. However from 1900 to 2000 the world underwent a fundamental transformation – in one century urban population and wealth increased more than ten-fold. Life expectancy almost doubled, while in the previous 400 years it increased less than 50 percent.

This growth in wealth and health is ‘just getting started’. In 1900 total global wealth was about $2 trillion. By 2000 this had increased 55-times to $117 trillion. And from 2000 to 2014 global wealth more than doubled again and is now about $263 trillion (Credit Suisse, 2014). For the rest of this century as national governments, institutions, cultural norms, and memes adapt to the unprecedented growth in wealth, the relative importance of cities will increase. This will occur alongside greater recognition of city vulnerabilities and inter-connectedness.

Cities are the drivers of this massive wealth increase. So too are cities, or better stated, the lifestyles that cities make possible, the main drivers of the ecosystem degradation. This ecosystem impact is a by-product of material consumption, e.g. energy, water, food. Cities will need to be built in a way that reduces local and global ecosystem degradation. Much of the newly created wealth will be spent on building better cities.

City builders, e.g. planners, civil engineers, community advisers, have not been able to keep up with growing demands. The infrastructure backlog for today’s 3 billion urban residents is severe – and now by the end of the century cities will almost triple in size (an 85 year planning horizon is not uncommon in civil engineering, e.g. infrastructure now being commissioned such as the Niagara Tunnel can have a 100 year operating lifespan). New tools, as proposed in this thesis,

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are needed to prioritize and monitor these larger civil works as finance, materials and professional services will continue to lag demand (increasingly more-so).

If Machiavelli and Sun Tzu were advising today, they would still likely focus on resource scarcity. However with the growing inter-connectedness of cities, and their importance as wealth generators (and ecosystem degraders), the whispered advice might be how to get cities to cooperate across different countries, despite what distractions might be taking place at the national level. For the last 100 years the world has nurtured a few hundred geese as they lay golden eggs. The geese consume a lot and generate much waste, and their proclivity is increasing fast. The best way to protect the geese and maximize the benefits of their mammon is to make clear what they need and what their impact is – and to clearly share benefits and responsibilities (with codified progress accounts).

As highlighted in Naim (2014) The End of Power initial growth of humanity’s wealth was much about size. Big countries and big companies with large sources of capital and military might were able to dictate agendas and provide the platform for urban growth and wealth generation. Efforts were exerted to protect borders and access to resources. Oil and the Middle East geopolitical turmoil, canals and large power stations, and Ford’s Model T are examples of Part 1 attributes. Castells (2007, 2011) outlines a similar dispersion of network power in global internet-based communications.

The next phase of wealth creation is less about size and more about connection and ‘rights [and obligations] of participation’. Borders and resources will still be important, but this will decline relative to the ability to participate in the global economy (with shared culture and knowledge). Cities, as the engines of economy and crucibles of culture and education, will be the main conduits of participation (as they already are) and therefore society will place a much greater emphasis on resilience and security. This will become even more important as cities face greater storm surges (rising sea level), weather events, pandemics, and civil strife (targeted such as through terrorism, and endemic such as unrest associated with long term drought).

Two simple examples help illustrate the difference between ‘primary’ and ‘secondary’ wealth creation. An excellent secondary example is Uber, the taxi cellphone application that was launched in 2010. By early 2015 Uber was available in more than 200 cities in 50 countries

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(stock valuation around $40 billion). The service is almost exclusively a city-based application, and even though it is banned in Spain and India, variants can readily develop. Regulators and existing taxi operators are scrambling to adapt – and likely will be fundamentally changed. All global cities want to be help their local aspirants come up with the next Uber.

The shift between a primary and secondary focused city can be witnessed through recent storm related events in Toronto. In 2003 Toronto lost electric power in an eastern seaboard blackout that impacted some 55 million people in US and Canada. Responses to the event mostly focused on network hardening (e.g. Pickering Nuclear Power Plant was fitted with independent backup power source), transmission grid upgrades, and more timely shared system information between utilities. Broadly speaking the response consisted of macro-initiatives.

Ten years later in December 2013 Southern Ontario experienced a major ice storm. Many residents in the greater Toronto area were without electricity for up to six days. Public reaction was much more focused on individual independence and system redundancy, e.g. home generators are now the most common addition to home renovations, cell phone battery back-ups are popular, and utilities and building developers are developing independent power systems. Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto, for example, declared an emergency and evacuated some 12 critical premature babies. The Hospital is now building an independent combined heat and power system; an example of the numerous resulting ‘micro-systems’ resilience enhancement initiatives.

Many of the Future Five cities are now scrambling to introduce programming and infrastructure provision that meets both locally specific requirements and global (or regional) network needs. City services need to provide the ‘bones’ as well the inter-connective tissue which are most commonly administered through institutions. Initiatives such as data management (e.g. ‘smart cities’), procurement practices, and local governance mechanisms are equally impactful for local quality of life as large scale infrastructure, however common metrics for this service provision are less developed. Tools for public safety, risk management, simple economic analyses will likely evolve quickly as cities develop more urban infrastructure and local service provision.

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4.3 The ‘Future Fives’

Eventually every city with a population over say, 100,000 should have its ‘urban DNA’ as suggested in this thesis publicly available, ideally with much of it in real time. Simple metrics akin to ISO 37120 should be published annually by every first-order government (city, or ‘primary government’). These data could be aggregated across metropolitan areas comprised of two or more local governments. Despite the fact that cities are humanity’s most important creation, an agreed-to list of cities with boundaries and population estimates is not yet available.

In determining which cities to analyze first a degree of arbitrariness is needed. Anywhere between perhaps 15 cities (the original C15 for example) and 150 would likely provide sufficient numbers to develop a comprehensive agreement. Less than 15 are likely too few to generate enough global interest and even the largest 15 cities represent less than 5 percent of the global economy, and only involve 10 countries. More than 150 would likely initially be too unwieldy and the disparities between largest and smallest would be exacerbated. Also the more participants that there are initially the more likely entrenched and unhelpful factions might emerge. Megacities (the 27 cities with populations in excess of 10 million) are a possible starting point, however only 6 are in high-income countries, thereby possibly limiting the cross equity approach a larger number of cities provides.

Today there are about 100 cities over 5 million population and another 400 between 1 million and 5 million. This research effort could reasonably start with the 100 cities over 5 million, however as the key aspect of this proposed approach is to focus on long-lived large-scale urban infrastructure a futures scenario approach warrants consideration. As defined in this thesis ‘the future’ is loosely defined as 35 years. Thirty-five years being about the optimum time-frame for analysis of major civil works like transportation systems, water supply, waste management infrastructure and energy generation and distribution. In dealing with long-lived urban infrastructure a key constituency is obviously the fastest growing (larger) cities. Therefore the cities selected for inclusion in this research are all cities (urban areas) expected to have 5 million or more residents by 2050. This introduces about 22 new cities to the current list of 100 (and 55 if the time frame to 2100 is selected).

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Initially this thesis intended to include the largest 100 or 101 cities in the analysis (starting with the 101 largest cities today, and adding the 15 new cities that are expected to be in the 101 largest cities grouping in 2050). An arbitrary list of the 100 or 101 largest cities was initially proposed, however upon reflection of the number of cities and the need to ensure a future focus, the list of cities was modified to include all those expected to have populations of at least 5 million by 2050. A population level, of say 5 million, is also less arbitrary than the largest 100 or 101. Setting the population level at 6 million (instead of 5 million) would reduce the 2050 list by about 30 cities. An inclusion level of 4 million (instead of 5 million) would increase the 2050 list by about 45 cities. Therefore the optimum population level for cities to include in the initial list is 5 million (Appendix 3).

The ‘Future Fives’ are expected to have a combined population of about 1.368 billion by 2050 (a 395 million increase from today)40. A valid argument can be made that smaller, even faster growing cities, should take priority. Eventually the list could grow but initially 125 cities is about the maximum (optimum) number to select as this brings in sufficient African cities that are more critical in the latter half of this century, but for the next few decades are still ‘small’ relative to Asian cities. The expected 122 cities likely maintains enough cities that are in OECD member countries now to anchor negotiations that are likely to see a major shift from OCED-member countries to non-member countries like China, India and later, Sub Saharan Africa. One impact from analyzing cities of 5 million or more is that a relatively large number of Chinese cities are then included, particularly from 2010 to 2050.

The C40 provides an important lesson for city associations. The organization started as the C5 wanting to represent some of the world’s largest and ‘most important’ cities, then reflecting an absence of cities from middle- and low-income countries, the list quickly grew to the C15, then the C40 with different membership standings (core and affiliate, with political pressure for smaller city participation) and now it is in flux with some 77 member cities of various sizes. The C40 emerged as a ‘club’ with the ability to expel members and closing the club to new members.

40 The Future Fives (cities with more than 5 million residents) are expected to have 100 cities in 2010 with a total population of 973 million, 122 cities in 2050 with a total population of 1.368 billion, and 155 cities in 2100 with a total of 2.389 billion (Fig. 3.1).

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This is similar to formation of the G7, then G8, then the more unwieldy G20, and emergence of the parallel G77.

Metropolis of UCLG is a possible model to follow, where any city over 1 million can be a member. However this was somewhat diluted in that smaller national capitals could join as well, and membership is voluntary, with about 40 percent of the world’s cities over 1 million population now participating in Metropolis41. Metropolis is likely the best positioned city organization to serve as a catalyst for these efforts (if there is a desire to use an existing organization).

4.3.1 Starting with Larger Cities

There are about 340 cities with populations larger than one million – more than half in middle- and low-income countries; these are all strong contenders to act as crucial pilot sites. In 2050 about 122 cities are expected to have 5-million or more residents. These larger cities can be argued to be the priority as they are home to the majority of the world’s wealth, resource consumption, associated pollution and impacts to biodiversity.

Secondary cities, those under 500,000 populations, contain the bulk of the world’s urban population and in most countries are the fastest growing communities. Arguably, these cities could also be the priority for any sustainable cities initiative. Similar arguments can be made for cities of 500,000 to 1,000,000 residents. In fact, all cities will benefit from inclusion in the sustainable cities process outlined in this thesis, however, only a handful of cities may be selected for inclusion in phase-one of the pilot project. Therefore the following considerations are suggested with a recommendation to initially focus on larger cities, i.e., those projected to have 5 million or more residents in 2050.

• From the perspective of global sustainability and ecosystem impacts, large cities have a disproportionately large impact. Therefore sustainable development will only be possible if the majority of large cities adhere to the tenets of sustainability.

41 Metropolis has 138 members (website accessed 4 July, 2014). There are about 475 cities above 1 million population.

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• Large cities are usually made up of several contiguous local governments. By virtue of their size they often appear threatening to national and regional governments. The politics of larger cities are often disproportionately difficult. Large cities should receive more outside assistance. • All larger cities have at least one academic institution in their urban area. Local academic institutions should be nurtured and treated as a critical ingredient of local sustainability. • Large cities are traditionally more challenged by coordination issues, and should seek out objective external partnerships, especially with regard to metropolitan issues, which are emerging as one of the 21st Century’s most intractable challenges. • Large cities over the next few decades will drive the largest creation of wealth ever. As these cities grow, and local real estate values increase along with the growth in population and density, they should seek out opportunities to enhance and share this new wealth.

Hoornweg and Pope (2014) show that with respect to the global goal of sustainability, larger cities should be encouraged, especially earlier in the century. This is mostly from smaller family sizes associated with urban residents. Larger cities can also grow regional and national economies faster, thereby providing quicker overall poverty reduction. Perhaps counter- intuitively growing larger cities faster between 2015 and 2050 will enhance sustainability this century.

Preparing city-based sustainability limits and assessing the local hierarchy of urban management is somewhat onerous, especially during the first few iterations as cities, and their partners, gain experience. Larger cities with greater capacity are likely the logical first adopters. Their experience will help shape the methodology for the second group of pilot cities. Larger cities can then emerge as regional coordination and support nodes for other cities.

4.4 Why 2050?

Sustainable development is a long term prospect. The WBCSD proposes a Vision 2050, as supported by many scenario planning exercises. Cities in particular try to plan within a consistent and complimentary short- and long-term planning horizon.

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Cities are usually built around large-scale ‘civil works.’42 For example, much of today’s major urban infrastructure was built more than 50 years ago. The US Interstate-Highway system; Rome’s aqueducts; Jakarta’s port-area; Niagara Falls hydropower; the subway systems of London, Paris and Moscow; most of Europe and the US railway alignments; key canals, bridges and airports – these major infrastructure works are well over 35-years old, and are still providing considerable service today. Much of the under-pinning of any city, and especially those aspiring to be a sustainable city, is infrastructure with 35 years or more life expectancy (and possibly amortization). This timeframe is likely the minimum when considering large-scale investments such as transportation (subways and new rail/road alignments) and power generation (power plants – hydro, solar, fossil fuel, tidal, geothermal, nuclear, etc.) – usually have as a minimum a 35-year operating horizon.

To provide a credible assessment of potential key infrastructure proposed for pilot cities a sufficiently long time horizon is needed. Thirty-five years is a logical timeframe: sufficiently long yet not too far on the horizon. This facilitates a more fulsome comparison of existing technologies to new options, e.g. solar and wind generation options versus hydro. The proposed 35-year timeframe (2015 – 2050) also coincides with one generation (typically, building cities for today’s children).

Identifying 2050 as the ‘target year’ for sustainability meets the objectives and aspirations of the Sustainable Development Goals, facilitates credible and comparable cost curves, and provides sufficient time to cover potential political transitions, technological advances, and personnel changes.

In order to prepare cost curves (as discussed in Chapter 6) the investigated intervention needs to be time bound, when will the project start, and what date in the future can benefits be considered to. This is somewhat problematic in that much large-scale infrastructure is long-lived43. Many interventions also have considerable lead times for commissioning. The Downtown Relief Metro

42 ‘Civil’ engineers were the first group of engineers to be distinguished – separate from ‘military’ engineers. Civil engineers typically design, build and manage infrastructure. They build cities (particularly ‘the bones’ of the city). 43 For example, benefits from the Niagara Falls hydroelectric power system have accrued since 1882. The recently commissioned $1.6 billion water diversion tunnel has a design life of 100 years.

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Line proposed for Toronto would not start operating before 2025, although costs would begin immediately. All costs and benefits accrued by the project over the studied time frame need to somehow be measured. A degree of arbitrariness is again needed.

The length of analysis needs to be sufficiently long term to encourage more comprehensive interventions, e.g. public transit. A time frame of some 35 years allows most of the capital costs to be sufficiently amortized regardless of interest rates (and most large scale investments are not amortized beyond 30 years or so – after which point they are simply leased). The term of analysis should also not be too long as collectively there is a sense of urgency promoting these negotiations, and much beyond 35 years supports a ‘too distant’ mentality as it transcends political and personal careers. A span of about 35 years seems optimum as this meshes with typical amortization and (individual) career spans.

‘Shadow Cost Curves’ for 2075 (or maybe 2060) and possibly 2040 will need to be developed for each urban area to better reflect total costs of longer-lived infrastructure (as outlined in Chapter 6). This will reduce a potential shortcoming of this approach that could favor shorter- term interventions.

Most national agencies and municipal planning authorities have long term plans, e.g. land-use plans, and shorter five-year plans. China, for example is on the 7th 5-year plan for major infrastructure. These sustainability cost curves are designed to (eventually) harmonize across national and local government master plans. A recommendation is made through this thesis that all large-scale civil works and public policy interventions (in excess of $10 million) be anchored in a relevant sustainability cost curve. For larger scale interventions, that extend beyond a single city (urban area) the costs and benefits should be apportioned to at least the relevant larger urban areas. Eventually this would be similar to an environmental assessment, or cost-benefit analysis, typically applied to all civil works.

4.5 An Inclusive List of Cities

I don’t care to belong to any club that will have me as a member. Groucho Marx

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Similar to how cities behave like natural ecosystems, so too do they often exhibit traits of human nature. Pride, joy, insecurity and concern; cities behave as a collective. Cities are fractious. In large urban areas the main city may overshadow the more dynamic neighboring community. City leaders, often of different political parties or different appointment/election cycles, may be at odds with regional and national leaders.

Membership in the C40, or determination of ‘global cities’ provide valuable insight in city organizations. The C40 has wrestled with membership from its outset (personal communication, Mayor Bloomberg). Only for a short time were there 40 member cities and these were quickly of disparate size, e.g. Basel of 165,000 up to Tokyo of 30-plus million. Challenges also arose as some cities (e.g. Beijing and Shanghai) failed to provide information or were dissuaded to fully participate by national government.

Sassen in The Global City (1991) suggested New York, London and Tokyo were the three key global cities at that time. This was further refined by Beverstock et al (2004) who through the Globalization and World Cities Research Network (GaWC) ranked cities as Alpha++, Alpha+, Alpha and Alpha-, Beta and Gamma, based on economy and global connectivity. In 2008 Foreign Policy published a ranking of global cities (this was updated in 2010, 2012, and 2014).

Much energy, and often consternation, goes into rankings of cities. The work of Kennedy et al on megacities provides an alternative approach. All 27 megacities are included in the review despite varying ability to engage local researchers and data availability. This is a similar approach to the World Bank’s annual WDR that includes all of the world’s 190+ countries.

The politics of cities differs from the science of cities yet both are critical to bring about sustainable development. The proposed approach to the envisaged ‘negotiations’ is that all cities (over 5 million population) would be included. Every year or two representatives for the world’s largest cities would negotiate and update a sustainability accord. The accord would be based on public, ‘open source’ sustainability cost curves. The negotiations per se would be indicative, and in theory could be negotiated by anyone representing the city. The broad context is sufficiently well defined to allow anyone representing the city to negotiate on their behalf. Public data necessary for development of sustainability cost curves would be publicly available, e.g. see ‘Sustainability Today’ at UOIT. When not available from local governments or senior levels of

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government, values could be estimated by respective engineering faculties or EWB volunteers (all the data needed to develop sustainability cost curves is likely known today for all cities +/- 10 percent which is sufficient for planning and negotiation purposes).

The approach proposed in this thesis is that the initiative is not voluntary for the world’s largest cities. Cities experience the impacts of unsustainable development; they are also in the best position to introduce the changes necessary to bring about more sustainable behavior. Arguably the world’s largest cities are best positioned to identify and implement these changes, and arguably starting with about 122 of the world’s larger cities provides a sufficiently large critical mass to bring along the rest of the world (these cities generate about 25 percent of the global economy and provide a disproportionately large share of patents and new technologies and organizational systems – they are also home to as many as half the world’s universities).

Unlike the G8, C40 or even Metropolis, this proposed negotiating strategy is fully inclusive. All cities over 5 million population would be included. An agreement would be developed that optimizes results for all of the world’s larger cities. A ‘win-win’ some 122-times over is envisaged, rather than a win-lose binary approach. Those cities that do not send representatives to negotiations would still be included in allocations of resource flows and wealth generation projections. As much as possible the final agreement would represent the optimum approach for the world’s larger cities. Negotiations initially would likely be seen as an ‘academic exercise’ between urban planners, civil engineers, and community representatives.

4.6 Developing within Global Limits

A key aspect of this thesis and the proposed strategy for international negotiations is that cities need to operate within some level of physical and social limits. These limits are largely defined by assimilative capacities of critical ecosystems (e.g. climate change, ozone layer, food supply) and threshold levels of conflict and social tension, beyond which economic development (and personal safety and quality of life) declines. These limits are not rigid, and are open to interpretation. They are transient based on the individual, city and country’s perspective at the time of analysis. Public safety, for example, becomes more important as a community’s affluence increases.

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Most global negotiations try to work with aggregate average perceived physical and social limits (with a national value for the time horizon, i.e. collective discount rate). Challenges arise in that an aggregate limit for negotiations is extremely difficult to derive, and costs to adhere to these limits are nebulous. Individual limits are also fraught with problems as individually, by country, city or corporation (shareholders), values are too disparate and difficult to adequately define. What emerges are minimum thresholds, e.g. human rights, which are not sufficient to design basic service delivery programs around.

Cities (urban agglomerations) probably offer the best scale to define more meaningful limits (over any desired time frame). Cities are charged with provision of basic services, i.e. transportation, water supply, order and (ideally) good governance. Education, health care, and economic development are built upon these basic services. Local governments are also the most critical in emergency response.

Enormous disparities exist within cities (just like countries). However a greater sense of shared purpose is possible because local slums and poverty directly impact the quality of life of other (more affluent) city residents. Cities (local governments) largely came into formal existence through Britain’s 1848 Public Health Act (Table 2.1) as a means of mandating waste regulation (initially solid waste and then expanded to wastewater and potable water provision). Today local governments are poised to tackle a similar challenge in providing sustainability (aggregated politically to sustainable development).

The world’s largest cities have sufficient impact on the planet (locally and globally) that reductions in pollution and vicarious impacts, e.g. purchase of ivory and blue fin tuna, are now needed and maximum levels of impact negotiated if individual and collective economies and quality of life are to be maintained, and enhanced. An agreement to define and then operate within prescribed limits for the larger cities should be sufficiently detailed and robust to foster similar agreements between countries and smaller cities. Corporations would adhere to these negotiated limits as well as more than 20 percent of their combined global sales are to these larger cities.

Much has been written on the ‘Limits to Growth,’ with much criticism. A well-known 1980 wager between Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon over the future price of five metals (copper,

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chromium nickel, tin and tungsten), expected to become scarce as populations grew, is often touted as evidence that limits are artificial and substitution quickly renders them obsolete. Ehrlich was advocating caution and adherence to limits while Simon argued long-term costs of materials would not increase. The price of all five metals fell from 1980 to 1990. Substitution may be possible, e.g. if one country was rendered uninhabitable people could move to another, however experience shows that limits do emerge although they tend to impact people differently, largely based on affluence44.

When looking at a collection of cities that are anchored and cannot move, i.e. limited substitutability, a ‘system of systems’ approach becomes necessary. Negotiating a contextual framework (time and space) for participating cities is then necessary (with sufficiently clear and present needs that the major tensions to emerge may be between city and host country rather than between cities or between countries). Negotiations subtly change – hopefully with more pragmatism. Rather than negotiating for the preservation of global ecosystems and allocations within defined, agreed-to (i.e. negotiated) and monitored limits, participating cities agree to operate within a unique and collective limit (that could be changed as conditions warrant). Factors of safety and factors of sustainability (Chapter 6) are also likely to naturally emerge as an exact agreement would not be possible, but rather a ‘good enough’ negotiated settlement would emerge.

Estimates suggested in this thesis are order-of-magnitude approximations. Similar to engineering approaches for major infrastructure that use a ‘factor of safety’ against failure (e.g. a factor of safety of 2 implies that the assessed component is two times as strong as the expected failure limit), a factor of sustainability provides indicative sustainability levels. ‘Sustainability’ is not as easy to define as specific failure of a concrete span or bolt, however using the approach outlined in Chapter 5 (some 44 metrics in 14 categories) with regular public input (open sourced peer review) a consensus on sustainability can be maintained (and variance from that level measured).

Negotiating sustainable development between cities is not a ‘limits to growth’ approach, but rather a ‘limits for growth.’ This is not a semantic distinction but rather an engineering approach

44 If the Simon-Ehrlich wager had been extended to 30 years to 2011 four of five metals would have increased in cost.

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focusing on growth (aka development) within clearly defined ‘factors of sustainability’. The factor of sustainability is defined and included in investment and policy initiatives for both the individual city as well as the collective larger cities (and presumably all other cities and countries). Less sustainable projects will still go ahead in richer cities, however their relative impact compared to other possible initiatives would be known by all cities.

Setting the starting point for negotiations on the limits for growth is difficult, however sufficient work exists to provide credible proposals. For global physical limits the work of Rockstrom et al provide an excellent starting point. Global socio-economic limits have slightly more interpretation and global variability however sufficient work also exists to provide good starting points. The key input for global social limits is the Millennium Development Goals (proposed to be implemented by 2015) and the subsequent (now under negotiation) Sustainable Development Goals.

Much of the negotiations with these Goals are complicated by the underlying tensions associated with wealth and technological sharing between countries. Negotiating between cities instead of countries will not eliminate this, but it should be significantly reduced as clear growth (population) trajectories now exist for all participating cities. The impact of unsustainable growth in the larger, poorer cities is much more evident to other cities. Negotiations need to be convened within the system of systems approach. Problems in any of the larger cities quickly manifest in other larger cities. Negotiations would propose a platform of how best to achieve growth and enhancement/maintenance of quality of life.

Negotiating an agreement that uses 2050 as the target year provides an important benefit. By focusing on the future, and focusing only on long-lived urban infrastructure, the aspects of wealth transfer will be less paramount. A rough estimate is that the wealth of just the Future Fives cities (as measured by per capita GDP) will increase from today’s $14.6 trillion to $30.5 trillion in 2050. Negotiations then take more of a flavor of how to nurture and encourage this growth, and what key infrastructure and actions are needed to foster this growth.

One important aspect not fully reflected in the proposed negotiation approach is the uneven impacts meted to individual cities from a changing climate. Coastal cities, for example, are likely to face more severe impacts of climate change (sea level rise, increased storm intensity). In

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larger countries, such as the US and China, internal migration is likely, e.g. Miami and New York to Chicago, however cities such as Dhaka and Lagos are likely to face growing strife and governance challenges as viable options for residents and growth projections are limited.

4.7 The Hierarchy of Sustainable Cities

Solid waste managers the world over often adhere to the hierarchy of waste management: reduce, reuse, recycle, and recover. Variations exist, however the concept remains consistent, follow a staged approach to waste management that first improves waste collection and simple disposal before bringing in more complicated (and expensive) waste processing systems. A similar urban management hierarchy could be adopted for urban management and efforts toward developing sustainable cities (Fig 4.1).

A hierarchy of sustainable cities45 would follow the continuum: (i) basic service provision; (ii) service coverage and reliability; (iii) connectivity, resilience, integrated finance; and, (iv) sustainability (environmental security, economic competiveness, social inclusion and equity). A city’s progress on the management hierarchy can be readily observed. A measure of receptivity of pilot cities would be their willingness to be measured by independent observers (say a score of 1 to 5 for each attribute; perhaps through a peer-to-peer process similar to WANO, Sec 3.4.1).

UNEP through the Melbourne Principles of Urban Sustainability suggest ten key principles of urban sustainability: (i) vision; (ii) economy and society; (iii) biodiversity; (iv) ecological footprints; (v) modeling cities on ecosystems; (vi) sense of place; (vii) empowerment; (viii) partnerships; (ix) sustainable production and consumption; (x) governance and hope (UNEP 2002; Newman and Jennings, 2008). These principle are laudable, although measuring something like ‘sense of place’ and ‘governance and hope’ is a challenge.

As a city (urban area) moves toward sustainability a minimum ‘level 1’ of basic service provision must first be achieved. Basic services include: a credible legal and regulatory framework (especially as it pertains to land and labor rights); master planning documents (and adherence to them); water, wastewater, electricity, and solid waste management; specific

45 The World Bank’s Urban Resilience Management Unit defined sustainable cities as “urban communities committed to improving the well-being of their current and future residents, while integrating economic, environmental, and social considerations.”

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consideration of the poor, and; credible involvement of the private sector. ‘Level 2’ enhancements toward sustainability are mostly about strengthened service provisions, e.g. coverage, reliability, monitoring and continuous improvement.

‘Level 3’ sustainability attainment is largely about integrated service supply, development and application of innovations, global connectivity, and active risk reduction. Many cities are well focused on urban resilience. This is likely to emerge as an even more pressing prerequisite for sustainability.

As discussed in Section 3.4.1 an association made up of, and managed by cities (similar to WANO), would provide valuable service to participating cities. A key mandate of the organization could be to determine objectively the level of sustainability within the city, and provide suggestions for moving up the hierarchy. The main challenges to this approach are two- fold. The main barrier will be cities continuously funding this organization. This is particularly challenging as the urban area, usually made up of many local governments, needs to be the locus of attention, rather than a single city. Also, unlike with nuclear power plants, there is no single point of contact (responsibility). Existing city agencies such as C40 and ICLEI may see a new organization as duplicative or competitive. An initial approach may be to first develop boundaries assessments of the Future Fives (probably through local engineering schools) and first order sustainability cost curves (Chapter 6). This should provide sufficient information to provide a preliminary assessment of a city’s urban sustainability level. Metropolis may also be a credible existing agency to add this peer-to-peer evaluation service.

Agencies such as the World Bank, OECD, Cities Alliance and possibly GEF are also well-versed in broad assessments of the key aspects of urban sustainability. These can be adapted to specific assessments a city’s progress on the hierarchy of sustainability. Eventually, progress, similar to WANO, should be conveyed in two forms: a clear web-based provision of key metrics and progress; and a confidential city assessment provided to head of each local government.

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Figure 4.1: Hierarchy Model for Building a Sustainable City

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Table 4.1: The World’s Growing Wealth and Health

Population (000,000) Year GDP (per person) Life Expectancy Global Urban 1500 130 461 <40 33 1600 150 554 <50 35 1700 170 603 <60 36 1800 200 990 <100 40 1900 680 1,650 320 48 2000 6,500 6,144 2,950 78 2100 40,000 10,853 8,686 83

Total global wealth about: $2 trillion – 1900; $117 trillion – 2000 and $263 trillion – 2014 (from Credit Suisse, 2014); $1,500 trillion – 2100 (author estimate, with Credit Suisse estimates 2019 global wealth of $369 trillion). All values in constant US$.

From various sources: Table 2.1, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2013), HYDE 3.1 of Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Supplement to PNAS, Jan 26, 2010 vol. 107 1691– 1808.

Table 4.2: World’s Largest Cities (Urban Areas) by Population (Millions)

1800 1900 1950 2006 2050 2100 Beijing (1.1) London (6.5) New York (12.4) Tokyo (35.5) Mumbai (42.4) Lagos (76.6) London (0.9) New York (4.2) London (8.9) Mexico City (19.2) Delhi (36.2) Dar es Salaam (73.7) Guangzhon (0.8) Paris (3.3) Tokyo (7.0) Mumbai (18.8) Dhaka (35.2) Mumbai (67.2) Tokyo (0.7) Berlin (2.7) Paris (5.9) New York (18.7) Kinshasa (35.0) Kinshasa (63.0) Istanbul (0.6) Chicago (1.7) Shanghai (5.4) São Paulo (18.6) Kolkata (33.0) Lilongwe (57.4) Paris (0.5) Vienna (1.7) Moscow (5.1) Delhi (16) Lagos (32.6) Delhi (57.3) Naples (0.4) Tokyo (1.5) Buenos Aires (5.0) Kolkata (14.6) Tokyo (32.6) Blantyre City (56.8) Hangzhou (0.4) St. Petersburg (1.4) Chicago (4.9) Jakarta (13.7) Karachi (31.7) Khartoum (56.6) Osaka (0.4) Manchester (1.4) Ruhr (4.9) Buenos Aires (13.5) New York (24.8) Niamey (55.2) Kyoto (0.4) Philadelphia (1.4) Kolkata (4.8) Dhaka (13.1) Mexico City (24.3) Kolkata (52.4)

From: 1800-1950 – Four Thousand Years of Urban Growth: An Historical Census. Chandler (1987) through About.com Geography. 2000-2100 from Hoornweg and Pope (2014).

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Chapter 5: A Cities Approach to Physical and Socio-Economic Boundaries

Following efforts to define and quantify safe planetary physical operating limits in areas such as climate change, loss of biodiversity and water use, this chapter develops an approach to develop boundaries from a city’s perspective. Physical boundaries are largely a down-scaled application of Rockstrom et al, (2009) proposed planetary systems boundaries. Socio-economic boundaries or targets, largely derived from the Millennium (and Sustainable) Development Goals are added. The approach is trialed for Dakar, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Shanghai and Toronto.

Cities are the main contributors to the planetary challenges that Rockstrom et al (2009), and others, outline. Mobilizing cities to effectively respond to these challenges, while meeting their own local imperatives is likely the most critical aspect for sustainable development over the next 35 years.

In order for broad objectives such as Rockstrom et al (2009) planetary boundaries and the upcoming sustainable development goals (SDG), to yield meaningful movement toward sustainable development a mechanism to enable their application at an individual city scale is needed. The majority of ecosystem impacts are delivered through the lifestyles of urban residents. So too will the majority of sustainability initiatives be delivered through cities and their residents. This work provides a suite of metrics that can help cities apply sustainable development objectives locally and broadly as part of a global network of urban systems.

5.1 Introduction

Rockstrom et al, (2009) propose a suite of planetary systems boundaries; namely, climate change, ocean acidification, ozone depletion, nitrogen and phosphorous cycles, freshwater use, changes in land use, and biodiversity. Loss of biodiversity, nitrogen cycle and climate change are estimated to now be beyond the planet’s sustainable carrying capacity. Atmospheric aerosol loading and chemical pollution are included, but not yet quantified.

Building on Rockstrom et al, Dearing et al. (2014) and Raworth (2012) state that ensuring a safe and just operating space for human wellbeing requires that both physical and social boundaries be defined. They propose a framework that integrates these operating spaces at regional scales. The ‘social-ecological’ system is demonstrated for two rural regions in China. Environmental

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ceilings are defined for water, soil and air qualities, and social foundations are explored for food, health, education, energy and jobs. While these indicators provide insights into a region’s social- ecological state, other important aspects of basic urban services in a locality, such as transportation, security and safety, geophysical risks, and biodiversity may also be needed. Gerst et al. (2013) extend the initial physical boundaries assessment with the addition of hunger, inequity, and water stress (Rockstrom, 2009). The ‘contours of a resilient global future’ remain at a global scale and support long term scenario planning.

Many researchers have refined ways to apportion contributions to ecosystem degradation and potential impacts to cities, relative to countries (Bechtel and Scheve, 2013; Duren and Miller, 2012; Lyon Dahl, 2012). Cities are acutely impacted by global trends, e.g. the price of commodities and climate change, and similarly cities are significant drivers of environmental degradation, e.g. GHG emissions, city-residents purchase the bulk of threatened and endangered species. Many international treaties negotiated by national governments are by-in-large undertaken on behalf of their respective cities, or potential customers in international cities. Greenhouse gas emissions and international climate negotiations provide a useful precedent.

Recognizing the need for a corporate down-scaled GHG emissions inventory able to reflect vicarious or embodied emissions (generated on behalf of the entity but done so through a third party or in another area) the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and World Resources Institute began in 1997 to work together to develop a standard methodology consistent with national GHG inventories. Scopes 1, 2 and 3 were defined to account where the emissions were generated while ensuring globally consistent national, local and corporate emissions inventories. This ensured consistent regional corporate and national inventories of GHG emissions. In 2006, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) adopted the WRI- WBCSD Corporate Standard as the basis for ISO 14064-I: Specification with Guidance at the Organization Level for Quantification and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals.

The initial work by WRI-WBCSD (and ISO 14064; WBCSD, 2011), efforts by researchers (Kennedy et al 2011), the World Bank (2010), and a common global protocol by C40-ICLEI- WRI led to a city-wide GHG emissions inventory now widely accepted and included within the

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recent ISO 37120. Cities are now able to credibly measure their GHG emissions, relative to national inventories. GHG emissions in Table 5.1 (t/cap/year) reflect the global protocol; as more scope 3 values are derived these numbers will more closely resemble national inventories.

5.2 Objective and Methodology

The objective of this chapter is to develop a methodology that enables cities to measure their degree of sustainability and monitor it locally and within a global context. Cities can understand their contribution to physical boundaries and socio-economic progress.

This methodology builds on the planetary boundaries approach and proposes socio-economic limits, based largely on the Millennium Development Goals (and follow-on Sustainable Development Goals46). The additional target areas include: youth opportunity, economy, access to energy access and energy intensity, mobility and connectivity, institutions, basic services, and security and public safety. The socio-economic limits are aggregated globally (for the world’s largest cities).

Sustainable development will only emerge through an integrated and holistic approach. Therefore a suite of 14 indicators are presented, some with multiple inputs and some that include estimated indices. The limits (or boundaries) are roughly half physical and half socio-economic. Larger cities are trialed first as they generally possess greater data availability, staff and local research capacity, and have greater global ecosystem impacts. A metropolitan-wide scale is used as a city’s overall ecosystem and economic impact is driven by the entire urban agglomeration, i.e. the actions of all residents. Metropolitan scale programs in areas such as energy and transportation also offer the greatest opportunity to ameliorate system impacts.

In taking a cities systems approach to planetary limits both local and global impacts should be considered for individual cities as well as aggregated for global impacts. The aggregate base level is provided for physical and socio-economic limits of the largest cities (Tables 5.1 and 5.2), as well as specific assessments for Toronto (Greater Toronto Area, GTA), Sao Paulo (Sao Paulo

46 Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform, 2014, Sustainable Development Goals, United Nations. August 29, 2014, http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?menu=1300.

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Metropolitan Region, SPMR), Shanghai (metro region), Mumbai (Mumbai Metropolitan Region, MMR), and Dakar, Senegal (metro region).

Following is a discussion on the establishment of city-based physical and socio-economic limits, methodology, and trial application for five representative cities. These efforts should be refined and applied to all larger cities across the world. Regular updating and consultations with residents will improve data estimates.

The approach used for city-based emissions and consumption is similarly proposed for other physical limits such as total water consumption (local and embodied); total nitrogen use; and land use – local and embodied. For example the total land use metric needs to reflect land converted locally as well as an estimate for land-use changes driven on behalf of the urban customer regardless of location.

A similar approach proposed here is to estimate a city’s impact on biodiversity. The impact on local species is estimated as is the city’s estimated impact around the world. Therefore cities whose citizens buy an inordinate amount of endangered animal parts, or purchase products grown on land cleared in sensitive habitats, would trend higher on the biodiversity metric. Similarly, cities that have a disproportionate negative, or positive, impact on species habitat or migration, are denoted. Initially, these values are only estimated indicatively by the authors, however support from groups like WWF and the World Bank, plus local engineering faculties, is anticipated as the indices are further refined.

Socio-economic limits similar to physical limits are derived here are from targets suggested through programs such as Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals. These are mostly service level targets, e.g. percent of population with solid waste collection and electrical service, that influence quality of life globally or specifically within the analyzed city. Some researchers suggest upper limits for several of these targets, e.g. caloric intake, energy consumption, and GDP (Raworth, 2012). The methodology presented here uses limits (existing, aggregate and targets) without upper-bounds to facilitate comparison across cities and over time, and is consistent with several engineering approaches (Rosen, 2012; Gnanapragasam et al, 2010).

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5.3 Accessing City Data

The approach presented here requires more than 44 data points for each evaluated city. Where necessary, the data are estimated for the urban agglomeration (metro area) either by aggregating all local-government information or down-scaling national data (Tables 5.1 and 5.2). The quality of data varies – with some expected to be third-party verified, i.e. ISO 37120, and some initially estimated by the authors. Some are down-scaled national values.

As illustrated with GHG emissions values, city-data needs to include what the city and its residents are directly responsible for, and what residents are responsible for outside city-limits, possibly half a world away. City-values also need to coincide with regional and national estimates. Four new indices are established for physical science indicators: index of biodiversity impact; index of embodied water consumption; index of global land use; and urban resilience. Similar to GHG emissions and Scope 3, the indices for biodiversity impact, embodied water consumption, and global land use, are mainly the embodied, or vicarious impact, associated with a product or service consumed by residents in the evaluated city. The index of urban resilience is estimated through the risks affecting the measured city added to the city’s presumed adaptive capacity.

Data associated with evaluated cities are expected to be regularly updated; a global effort is needed to collect this information. Two key sources of data input and support are envisaged. Data for the indices will be provided by peer experts and possibly ‘crowd sourced’ until more exact values can be obtained. An urban electronics market is available, similar to the Iowa Electronics Markets. Comparable indices are Transparency International’s Country Index and The World Bank’s ‘Ease of Doing Business’ country index.

Larger cities have one or more schools of engineering located within them. Faculties of civil engineering would be canvassed to establish an ad hoc global network for data collection, compilation and regular updating. The World Federation of Engineering Organizations would loosely coordinate the effort (costs expected to be borne by schools of engineering through several partnerships).

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5.4 Global Physical Limits

Rockstrom et al (2009) provide an important starting point for global physical limits. Their work identified critical exceedance of planetary system capacities for loss of biodiversity, nitrogen cycle, and climate change. The phosphorous cycle is considered approaching criticality. Ocean acidification, change in land use, freshwater use, and stratospheric ozone depletion are within limits but trending toward criticality. Atmospheric aerosol loading and chemical pollution are not yet quantified (Figure 5.1).

Figure 5.1: Physical Science Indicators for the World, Compared to the Boundaries Proposed by Rockstrom et al (2009)

Building upon Rockstrom et al boundaries (i.e. limits) Figure 5.2, and Table 5.1 present a global aggregate for proposed physical limits of the world’s largest cities. The limits are applicable to all cities; however larger cities are prioritized in this analysis, i.e., those cities (urban agglomerations) over 5 million population by 2050. Values are presented as per capita (average for all city-residents). The analysis includes an additional limit for geophysical risk. This reflects seismic and weather related risk the city faces, e.g. sea level rise, earthquake, volcanoes, landslides, storms and flooding. The value is an aggregate estimate of risk to life and property. Geophysical risk incudes rapid onset events such as typhoons and earthquakes: Long-term climate related events, such as drought, pestilence and changes to growing seasons are

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considered elsewhere. The values are presented as urban resilience (a function of risk and adaptive capacity).

‘Pollution’ is added to the Rockstrom et al. boundaries to estimate local (and cumulative) values for air pollution (smog and indoor/outdoor particulate matter), water pollution (COD, BOD, flotsam, and heavy metals) and land pollution (solid waste and brownfields). These wastes lead to pollution and tend to be locally generated and experienced. The values for pollution are expected to vary markedly for assessed cities. An eventual refinement of the methodology will include global aggregation for (local) pollution that impacts at the local and global scale, e.g., smog, trace organics, black carbon. The limits are presented as an average for the overall urban area, even though pollution levels can vary markedly within a city.

Figure 5.2: Physical Science Boundaries for Cities in a Global Context (Aggregate Estimates)

Climate Geophysical Change Risks

Pollution Biodiversity Loss

Nitrogen Fresh Water Cycle Use

Land Use Change

The limits for climate change are common with Rockstrom et al (a total city-wide per capita GHG emissions value provided – using Scopes 1, 2 and where available, 3 (WBCSD, 2013). So too nitrogen limits; absolute per capita values are provided. Biodiversity, fresh water use, and land-use change, are common with Rockstrom et al and downscaled to individual cities. Values are derived from local and global impacts, each given equal weighting. For activities like biodiversity loss, an index is provided (see Table 5.1). Rockstrom et al values were recently

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updated (Steffen et al, 2015) highlighting greater land use changes (and crossing of the boundary).

Table 5.1: Physical Science Indicators, Global Average

Global Global Physical Science Indicators Unit Source (Current) (Targets/Limits) Carbon Dioxide Emission

GHG emissions per capita (tCO2/cap. year) 4.71 2 Adapted from Comm on Cl. Change Rate of Biodiversity Loss global hectares WWF Living Planet Report Ecological footprint demanded per 2.6 1.7 (down-scaled national values) capita Index of biodiversity impact Low-Very High Very High Low Estimated Fresh Water Use Total per capita water L/cap/day 1148 1546 Rockstrom et al. consumption47 Percent of city with potable water Adapted from WHO, *estimated % 81 95* supply value Index of embodied water Low-Very High Low Low Estimated consumption (Litres) Change In Land Use % of land converted Local land use change (Ha) 11.7 15 Rockstrom et al. for cropland Population density person/km2 3500 TBD Demographia 2006 Index of global land use impact Low-Very High Low Low Estimated (Ha) Nitrogen Cycle Per capita values as percent of global values based on estimated kg-N2/cap/year 18 5.5 Rockstrom et al. consumption patterns Pollution Percentage of city population with Municipality Waste Management, % 50 80* regular solid waste collection *estimated data Percentage of city population http://www.worldwaterweek.org/, * % 76 80* served by wastewater collection estimated data PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m3 20 10 World Health Organization (WHO) Geophysical Risk Number of natural disaster related per 100,000 0.134 0.09* Adapted from Guha-Sapir deaths population Percentage of GDP loss due to % 0.2 0.1 b$ 143 in 2012/UCL-WHO natural disasters Resilience of city Low-Very High Medium High Estimated

5.5 Moving from a Global Boundaries Approach to a Cities Perspective

Modifications to the global boundaries approach by Rockstrom et al. (2009) to a cities perspective are shown in Figure 5.2. Changes include: Atmospheric aerosol loading is omitted

47 This represents cumulative fresh water withdrawal from all sources. Cities usually report only their domestic water consumption; eventually embodied water consumption would be included, similar to GHG emissions inventories.

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(atmospheric limits included in ‘pollution’ indicator); Ocean acidification is omitted (included in climate change indicator); Climate change presented as aggregate GHG emissions by city, i.e. Scopes 1, 2 and where available 3; Biodiversity impact is estimated for local and global activities deriving from city residents – two metrics used, one local impacts on neighbouring ecosystems and species, and a global index of biodiversity impact; Fresh water use is similar to GHG emissions, estimated as a local and global aggregate usage; Change in land use includes local and global activities; ‘Pollution’ is intended to capture particulate matter, smog, BOD, COD, solid waste, and heavy metal contamination generated inside and outside urban boundary, but directly impacting the city; Nitrogen is estimated from consumption of food and horticultural products, plus relevant industrial activities (phosphorous to be added later – nitrogen considered first priority, although phosphorous loading of local water courses severe near some cities); Geophysical risks are estimated for each urban area - Risk is residual (geophysical and climate risk) and aggregate (estimated against life and property for entire urban area).

Data sources for the seven proposed cities-based physical indicators are:

Climate Change: GHG emissions per capita (Scopes 1, 2 and [eventually] 3; C40-ICLEI-WRI GPC, GCI-C and SDG)48

Rate of Biodiversity Loss: Ecological footprint (WWF Living Planet Report); Index of biodiversity impact (SDG – TBD)

Fresh Water Use: Percent of city with potable water supply (GCI-C); Total per capita water consumption (GCI-S, SDG); Index of embodied water consumption (SDG – TBD)

Change in Land Use: Local land use change in Ha (SDG – TBD); Index of global land use impact (embodied; SDG – TBD)

Nitrogen Cycle: per capita values as percent of global values based on estimated consumption patterns.

48 GCI-C and S, Global City Indicator core and supporting as defined in ISO 37120; SDG – Sustainable Development Goal, expected 2015; TBD – to be developed. Where values are not yet available through GCI (WCCD) estimates are made by authors (to be updated as data becomes available).

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Pollution: PM 2.5 (GCI-C); PM 10 (GCI-C); O3 (ozone – GCI-S); percent of city population with regular solid waste collection (GCI-C); percentage of city’s wastewater receiving no treatment (GCI-C).

Geophysical Risk: Number of natural disaster related deaths per 100,000 population (GCI-C); resilience of city (SDG – Index); life and property casualty (by insurance payment – TBD).

Where indicators are comprised of sub-indicators each is given equal weighting. Formulas for calculations are provided in Appendix 9.

5.6 Global Socio-Economic Limits

The socio-economic limits, or boundaries, of sustainability also include seven metrics. Where definitive values are not available, values are estimated (and denoted). The boundaries align with the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) now under preparation. Preliminary discussions are advocating for an ‘urban SDG’ however this may be of limited value as no single value can portend to connote ‘urban progress’, rather a suite of indicators and goals are needed to capture progress in cities.

In an attempt to develop ‘contours of a resilient global future’, Gerst et al (2013) combine scenario analysis (to 2100), planetary boundaries, and targets for human development. The methodology is sufficiently robust to accommodate dramatic social and technological change. The approach presented in this thesis provides planetary and local objectives as human development targets that would facilitate a similar application of ‘contours of a resilient global future’ but down-scaled to a metropolitan city perspective. No upper-bounds are suggested, as in Raworth (2012, Fig 5.6) although in many cases, such as unemployment rate, under 5 mortality, and percentage of population with regular solid waste coverage, the values would approach 0 or 100 percent.

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Figure 5.3: Socio-Economic Limits: Global Situation Compared to Targets

Youth Security and Opportunity Public Safety

Economy Basic Services

Energy Institutions Access and Intensity

Mobility and Connectivity

Figure 5.3 provides approximate global social boundaries (i.e. socio-economic) – estimated in relation to existing targets and global limits. These targets are mainly a reflection of the MDGs (moving to SDGs). Most of the data is regularly available through data sets such as the Global City Indicators Facility; however approximations are needed as values are required for the entire urban area, rather than the individual city alone.

The proposed socio-economic limits are: (i) youth opportunity; (ii) economy; (iii) energy access and intensity; (iv) mobility and connectivity; (v) institutions; (vi) basic services, and; (vii) security and public safety. These limits are consistent with a hierarchy of sustainable cities (Chapter 4) and reflect the foundations of urban service delivery. Three to five indicative measures are used for each limit. Youth opportunity includes metrics targeted to girls to reflect the critical nature of gender in economic growth (World Bank, 2012). In addition to per capita GDP (city-based) the economy limit includes gini coefficient and population in slums to capture general equity, as well as the overall city unemployment rate.

Access to energy and energy intensity measure service provision, especially for the poor, and overall efficiency of energy use as measured through energy intensity (energy used per unit GDP). Mobility and connectivity are considered critical as urban economies are facilitated through personal interactions. The limits of institutions and security and public safety are

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particularly broad and challenging to capture across all cities. Indicative, and readily available, indicators are used initially, with possible augmentation as more data becomes available. Comprehensive education and health limits are not used as these are often not the remit of the city and are predicated on minimum quality of life and basic service delivery levels. Table 5.2 gives the current values of the global physical science indicators compared with the target values or limits.

Data sources for the seven proposed cities-based socio-economic indicators are:

Youth Opportunity: Under 5 mortality (SDG, GCI-C); Gender equity (SDG); percent female in schools (GCI-C); youth unemployment rate (GCI-S); Average life expectancy (GCI-C).

Economy: Unemployment rate (GCI-C); Gini coefficient (SDG); percentage of population living in slums (GCI-C, SDG); local GDP (TBD).

Energy Access and Intensity: Percentage of city with authorized electrical service (SDG-C); energy intensity (SDG and partial GCI-S).

Mobility and Connectivity: Annual number of public transport trips per capita (GCI-C); number of personal automobiles per capita (GCI-C); percentage of commuters using a travel mode other than a personal vehicle to work (GCI-S); commercial air connectivity (GCI-S); transportation fatalities per 100,000 population (GCI-S); number of internet connections per 100,000 population (GCI-C); Index of Connectivity (TBD).

Institutions: ‘Ease of Doing Business’ – World Bank (downscaled from country to city level); number of convictions for corruption by city officials per 100,000 population (GCI-S); tax collected as a percent of tax billed (GCI-S); debt service ratio (GCI-C).

Basic Services: percentage of population with regular solid waste collection (GCI-C); percentage of city population served by wastewater collection (GCI-C); percentage of population served with potable water supply (GCI-C); percent of houses flooded, per year (SDG – TBD).

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Security and Public Safety: Number of fire related deaths per 100,000 population (GCI-C); number of homicides per 100,000 population (GCI-C); violent crime rate per 100,000 population (GCI-C).

Where indicators are comprised of sub-indicators each is given equal weighting. Formulas for calculations are provided in Appendix 9.

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Table 5.2: Global Social Science Indicators (Current Global Average Values compared to Target/Limit)

Indicators Unit Current Target Comment/Source Youth Opportunity Under 5 mortality Deaths per 1000 live births 51 17 Millennium Development Goals Gender equity 0.66 1 Millennium Development Goals Percentage of female in schools % 85 95 495.9 m illiterate woman in 2007 (UN) Youth unemployment rate % 12.4 12.8 2012 rate and 2018 estimate by UN-ILO Average life expectancy years 70 70 70 is 2015 target/United Nations Economy Unemployment rate % 6 6* ILO-UN, 2013, *Estimated Gini Coefficient 0.52 0.2* The Conference Board of Canada, *Estimated Percentage of population living in slums % 25 18 Millennium Development Goals GDP $/cap 10,496 20,000* b$74910, 7.13 million pop, 2013 (WB), *Estimated Energy Access and Intensity Percentage of city with authorized electrical service % 94 100 0.21 million urban residents w/o access (IEA) Percentage of city with access to clean energy for cooking % 88 100 0.43 million urban residents w/o access (IEA) Energy Intensity MJ/$ 8.9 8.9 Wikipedia: List of countries by energy intensity, 2003 Mobility and Connectivity Number of personal automobiles per capita vehicle/cap 0.15 0.2 1.02 billion in 2010, 1.58 billion in 2020 Daily number of public transport trips per capita trips/cap/day 0.35 0.35* *Estimated Number of internet connections % population 40 50 Internet Live Stats Percentage of commuters using a travel mode other than a personal vehicle to work % 30 50* *Estimated Transportation fatalities per 100,000 population 17.2 8.6* World Health Organization Commercial air connectivity # of destinations Institutions Ease of Doing Business – World Bank (downscaled from country to city level) 95 95 International Finance Corporation Number of convictions for corruption by city officials per 100,000 population 42.7 50 Index Average/Transparency International Tax collected as a percent of tax billed % TBD from GCI Debt service ratio TBD from GCI Basic Services Percentage of population with regular solid waste collection % 50 80* Urban Solid Waste Management, *Estimated Percentage of city population served by wastewater collection % 76 80* 2008, Urban regions, www.worldwaterweek.org, *Estimated Percentage of population served with potable water supply % 81 95* United Nations, *Estimated Security and Public Safety Number of fire related deaths per 100,000 population 3.6 0.5* 265000 deaths/y/WHO, *Estimated Number of homicides per 100,000 population 6.1 3.05* 437000 cases in 2013/UNODC, *Estimated Violent crime rate per 100,000 population TBD from GCI

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5.7 Results

Socio-economic limits are closely linked to physical limits, e.g. access to energy and GHG emissions, GDP and biodiversity impact. Analyzing limits from a city’s perspective requires an integrated perspective at both the local and global scale. Figures 5.4a- 5.4e illustrates the 14 limits of five example cities, relative to each other. These comparisons and targets enable a city- assessment of sustainable development locally and globally.

5.7.1 Physical Science Indicators of Five World Cities

The physical science (and later socio-economic) indicators discussed above are evaluated for five of the world’s largest cities. The cities and their populations are:

• Toronto (Greater Toronto Area, GTA): 6.3 million (2012); 7.9 million (2050)

• Sao Paulo (Metropolitan Region, SPMR): 21 million (2012); 25.3 million (2050)

• Shanghai (Metropolitan Area, SMA): 18.4 million (2012); 25.3 million (2050)

• Mumbai (Metropolitan Region, MMR): 18.8 million (2012); 47.4 million (2050)

• Dakar (Metropolitan Area, DMA): 2.8 million (2012); 9.9 million (2050)49

The seven physical boundaries are scaled according to current global conditions50; results are provided in Table 5.3. Toronto and Shanghai are notable for their relatively high greenhouse gas emissions and fresh water use. The nitrogen values are estimated against global averages and a specific estimate of the city’s energy and food consumption compared to the global average (and the corresponding increase/decrease in N2). Mumbai has the highest levels of chemical pollution compared to the other four cities. An example of Mumbai’s vulnerability to natural disasters was evident during the 2005 floods that affected many parts of the Maharashtra State, especially the Mumbai Metropolitan Area (Blackburn, 2014).

49 Population estimates from Hoornweg and Pope (2014) "Population Predictions of the 101 Largest Cities in the 21st Century," Global Cities Institute, Report 4. 50 Cities average if available, otherwise data assessed against the global average.

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Table 5.3: Physical Science Indicators for the Five Example Cities, Scaled according to the Global Average

Physical Science Indicators Toronto Sao Paulo Shanghai Mumbai Dakar

Carbon Dioxide Emission 2.4 0.3 2.5 0.6 0.2

Rate of Biodiversity Loss 2.4 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.8

Fresh Water Use 2.2 1.2 2.1 1.4 0.7

Change In Land Use 2.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.0

Nitrogen Cycle 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.3

Chemical Pollution 0.7 0.9 1.9 4.5 2.0

Geophysical Risk 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.8 3.2

Appendix 8 provides detailed information on the cities’ current data for physical science indicators. The cities are also compared with current global averages, and the average of the five pilot cities. Transportation modes in Dakar are mainly public transit, walking, and biking, rather than personal automobiles which have the greatest share in Toronto and Shanghai. Nearly 88 percent of Dakar’s commuters use a travel mode other than personal vehicles (World Bank, 2000).

Rockstrom et al. (2009) measured rate of biodiversity loss as the annual number of extinct species per million species and suggest that this rate is now well above the global ‘safe’ limit. Measuring the rate of biodiversity loss at a city level is challenging as both local and global impacts need to be quantified. Biodiversity is affected by many parameters and phenomena such as greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water consumption, and nitrogen phosphorous cycles. Table 5.4 provides a preliminary assessment of biodiversity indices for the five cities. These are an initial starting point and would need to be refined as a more comprehensive methodology emerges (WWW, personal discussions). Aside from Mumbai and Dakar, the other three cities have higher than (global) average biodiversity impacts.

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Table 5.4: Biodiversity Index (Aggregate Local and Global Impacts)

Local Impact Global Impact Average Toronto 3.5 2 2.8 Sao Paulo 2.5 3 2.8 Shanghai 3 4 3.5 Mumbai 3.5 2.5 3 Dakar 3 1.5 2.3

Following is an approximation of physical indicators for the Greater Toronto Area. In Appendices 7 and 8, the highlighted cells represent estimated values based on current available data. The values are approximations intended to start an open-source iterative process. Ideally the values would be regularly updated, with a broader consensus, perhaps with support of local engineering faculties. Figure 5.4-a (Physical Limits) highlights that the Toronto Area follows common traits of most affluent cities with a disproportionate contribution to climate change, nitrogen cycle, change in land use and fresh water consumption. Of the 44,838 species assessed in the IUCN ‘Red List’ (2014), 16,928 are listed as threatened, of which 180 are local to Ontario, Canada, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (Travers, 2009). Canada’s ecological footprint is used to estimate biodiversity loss in Toronto, as these numbers are reported at country scale in the WWF’s 2014 Living Planet Report. The same approach is also used for the other four major cities. Values are expected to be further refined with additional consideration for activities such as migratory bird loss in Toronto (high-rise tower strikes at night).

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Figure 5.4-a: Physical Science: Toronto vs. Global Condition

Climate Geophysical Change Risks

Pollution Biodiversity Loss

Nitrogen Fresh Water Cycle Use

Land Use Change

Figure 5.4-b: Physical Science: Sao Paulo vs. Global Condition

Climate Geophysical Change Risks

Pollution Biodiversity Loss

Nitrogen Fresh Water Cycle Use

Land Use Change

Sao Paulo is prone to landslides, lightening and floods (de Brito et al, 2011). From 2005 to 2011, 35 casualties were reported in the City of Sao Paulo due to natural disasters and 37 people died annually due to the disasters between 2005 and 2011 in the State of Sao Paulo, leading to 0.09 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. This is less than the global annual average of 9655 natural

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disaster-related deaths between the years 2002 and 2011, according to a joint study by Université Catholique de Louvain and the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2012 (Guha-Sapir, 2012). Figure 5.4-b compares Sao Paulo with global averages on the physical science indicators.

With a population of 18.4 million (2010 data), Shanghai is China’s largest metropolitan (Kennedy et al, 2014), and, like Sao Paulo, is susceptible to flooding. Greenhouse gas emissions

and air quality are relatively higher than global averages (Figure 5.4-c). The levels of CO2

equivalent emissions and particulate matter (PM2.5) are reported as 11.7 tCO2e/cap/year and 81 g/m , respectively. The average domestic fresh water use in Shanghai Metropolitan Area is 3 411µ L/cap/day, which is four times the global ‘Water Right-level’ proposed by the United Nations.

Figure 5.4-c: Physical Science: Shanghai vs. Global Condition

Climate Geophysical Change Risks

Pollution Biodiversity Loss

Nitrogen Fresh Water Cycle Use

Land Use Change

Mumbai is India’s largest metro area: Air quality is as poor as Shanghai’s. Mumbai also has disproportionately high impacts on biodiversity loss, fresh water use, and land use change. Figure 5.4-d shows the city’s status compared to global average.

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Figure 5.4-d: Physical Science: Mumbai vs. Global Condition

Climate Geophysical Change Risks

Pollution Biodiversity Loss

Nitrogen Fresh Water Cycle Use

Land Use Change

Dakar Metropolitan Area covers 1 percent of Senegal’s land area; however, it is home to nearly 50 percent of the country’s urban population. Much of the city’s population reside in the ‘Pre- Urban’ part of the metropolitan, and is vulnerable to natural disasters, especially flooding and coastal erosion, which is exacerbated by weak local governance and rising sea levels (Gun Wang et al, 2009).

Figure 5.4-e: Physical Science: Dakar vs. Global Condition

Climate Geophysical Change Risks

Pollution Biodiversity Loss

Nitrogen Fresh Water Cycle Use

Land Use Change

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The city is the economic and political hub of the country, and any impact to Dakar affects Senegal overall. For example, more than 5 percent of Dakar Metropolitan Area is exposed to high risk natural hazards. The city’s population has grown an average 1 percent per year since 1988; current predictions estimate the city reaching 9.2 million by 2050 (Hoornweg and Pope, 2013). The city also suffers from high ambient air pollution with 80 g/m , compared to the 3 WHO targets of 10 g/m . Access to clean water is not provided to µ3% of the population, and 3 nearly 25% for solidµ waste collection. Figure 5.4-e shows the city’s status compared to the global average.

5.7.2. Socio-Economic Indicators of World’s Major Cities

The socio-economic limits for the five major cities given in Table 5.4 are compared to a global average scale of 1. Compared to the global average, only Shanghai has a better level of youth opportunity; Toronto’s youth unemployment is highest of the five pilot cities, yet it has the lowest Gini coefficient. Dakar’s economic challenges are manifest, reflected by relatively low youth opportunity and low economic performance (Table 5.5). More detailed data on the indicators are provided in Appendices 7 – 9.

Table 5.5: Status of the World’s Major Cities – Socio-Economic Indicators compared to a Global Average Scale of 1

Indicators Toronto Sao Paulo Shanghai Mumbai Dakar

Youth Opportunity 1.0 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.9

Economy 0.9 1.5 1.4 2.2 3.6

Energy Access and Intensity 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.0

Mobility and Connectivity 1.0 0.8 0.9 2.1 2.9

Institutions 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4

Basic Services 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.8 1.1

Security and Public Safety 0.8 7.7 0.7 1.2 3.1

Toronto has the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita among all five pilot cities ($51,000), and Dakar the lowest at $3,700. Nearly 20 percent of Shanghai’s residents do not have access to solid waste and wastewater collection, while this number is more than 60 percent

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for residents in Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Mumbai also has the second highest fire-related deaths among the five cities, after Dakar.

Figure 5.5-a highlights Toronto’s relative strength in social limits. On average, compared to the global values, Toronto has higher opportunities for youth, a larger per capita economy, full energy access, and higher public safety and security indicators. Sao Paulo, on the other hand, has lower youth opportunity and per capita economy; although the city has relatively high service levels in areas such as mobility and connectivity, and basic services, as shown in Figure 5.5-b.

Figure 5.5-a: Socio-Economic: Toronto vs. Global Condition

Youth Security and Opportunity Public Safety

Basic Economy Services

Energy Institutions Access and Intensity

Mobility and Connectivity

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Figure 5.5-b: Socio-Economic: Sao Paulo vs. Global Condition

Youth Security and Opportunity Public Safety

Economy Basic Services

Energy Institutions Access and Intensity

Mobility and Connectivity

Figure 5.5-c: Socio-Economic: Shanghai vs. Global Condition

Youth Security and Opportunity Public Safety

Economy Basic Services

Energy Access Institutions and Intensity

Mobility and Connectivity

Shanghai is well-served by its public transportation system, and as shown in Figure 5.5-c, provides relatively high level socio-economic boundaries. Compared to Toronto, Shanghai’s higher Gini coefficient and lower per capita income are key economy indicators.

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Comparing Toronto, Shanghai, and Sao Paulo with Mumbai and Dakar, the significant need for improved economy, youth opportunity, and mobility and connectivity is evident. Mumbai also lags in providing basic services such as waste collection and improved sanitation. The socio- economic status of Mumbai and Dakar are shown in Figures 5.5-d and 5.5-e respectively.

Figure 5.5-d: Socio-Economic: Mumbai vs. Global Condition

Youth Security and Opportunity Public Safety

Economy Basic Services

Energy Institutions Access and Intensity

Mobility and Connectivity

Figure 5.5-e: Socio-Economic: Dakar vs. Global Condition

Youth Security and Opportunity Public Safety

Economy Basic Services

Energy Institutions Access and Intensity

Mobility and Connectivity

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5.8 Conclusion

Sustainable development and planetary boundaries are often presented as a global challenge. Rightly so, as broad issues such as climate change, loss of biodiversity and stratospheric ozone depletion are global manifestations of unsustainable actions. However the vast majority of the actions leading to these impacts originate in cities. Cities, i.e. urban areas, are the nodes of the global economy. Residents of cities drive the world’s material and energy flows. Cities by their nature with fragile infrastructure, immobility, and in many cases coastal settings, are particularly vulnerable to global trends such as climate change and food insecurity.

The challenges and integrated nature of sustainable development and associated threats to planetary boundaries is well presented through the iconic ‘target’ figure by Rockstrom et al. (Figure 5.1). The eight quantified and two yet to-be quantified physical limits capture well the requirements and magnitude of global impacts. This work is augmented by Dearing et al ‘safe and just space for humanity’ (2014) and the millennium development goals (SDGs in 2015).

As shown in this chapter applying global physical limits and socio-economic targets at a city level is possible. The city level is considered the critical unit for sustained action. The methodology presented in this chapter facilitates integration across limits and targets as well as integrating local and global impacts. Each city can develop its target to sustainability. Efforts can be readily monitored and compared with other cities.

The proposed methodology and city targets if used by the majority of the world’s larger cities could support an international agreement on sustainable development facilitated through cities. Although not immediately obvious, global approaches such as those proposed by Rockstrom et al (2009) and Raworth (2014) are comprised of many sub-components. A sustainability approach, as outlined in this chapter, enables cities to act as measurable sub-parts of the overall system.

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Figure 5.6: Safe and Just Operating Spaces for Regional Social-Ecological Systems

Fig. 1. Merging (a) the planetary boundary framework (Rockstrom et al., 2009a,b) and (b) the social ‘doughnut’ framework (Raworth, 2012) into a new framework and tool for defining safe and just operating spaces for sustainable development at regional scales. From: Global Environmental Change, 28 (2014), 227-238.

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Figure 5.7: Safe and Just Operating Spaces for Regional Social-Ecological Systems

Fig. 5. Safe and just operating spaces mapped for two Chinese regions in 2006. (a) Erhai lake-catchment system, Yunnan Province; (b) Shucheng County, Anhui Province. The figures show the extent to which each region currently meets expected social standards (blue sectors) for an acceptable social foundation (green circle), and the current status of key ecological services/processes (from Figs. 3 and 4): safe (green sectors), cautious (yellow sectors) and dangerous (red sectors). The environmental ceiling (red circle) defines the approximate boundary between sustainable and unsustainable use of ecological processes. The RSJOS exists as a ‘doughnut’ between the environmental ceiling and social foundation. Data for sediment quality (a) and water regulation (b) unavailable. Note that the relative sizes of green, yellow and red sectors are illustrative: they are not plotted to any scale and are not plotted from the centre of the circles (see text for further explanation). Blank sectors indicate unavailability of data. Ecological data are shown in Figs. 3 and 4, and Tables A.2 and A.4; social data in Tables A.3 and A.5. An additional sector for upland soil stability at Erhai (a) is based on assessment of centennial records (see text and Dearing, 2008).

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Chapter 6: Development and Application of Sustainability Cost Curves

6.1 Introduction

Around the world the largest city-building effort in human history is underway. Many older civil-works in the cities of Europe, North America and Japan are being replaced and retrofitted, and new construction is taking place in fast-growing cities. East- and South-Asia is now the world’s fastest growing region; Asia Pacific alone is approaching $5.4 trillion in annual infrastructure spending51. Cities of Sub-Sahara Africa are also ramping up growth as the region’s urban population is expected to surpass East- and South-Asia’s mid-century. Cities and their agencies are expected to spend at least $100 trillion on infrastructure and urban service delivery by 2050.

While this enormous urban infrastructure rush is underway planetary limits are already severely threatened. Climate change, the rate of biodiversity loss and nitrogen cycle are all believed to be beyond sustainable boundaries (Rockstrom et al, 2009). The drivers of ecosystem degradation are mostly by-products of current urban lifestyles, e.g. greenhouse gas emissions, water use, and land clearing associated with agricultural products. This impact is bound to increase as urban populations double. In addition to the need to adhere to planetary physical limits and reduce environmental degradation, socio-economic targets as proposed, for example through the millennium development goals and subsequent sustainable development goals. These physical boundaries and socio-economic targets are critical considerations for all urban infrastructure.

Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves present a set of available options for a longer-term and comprehensive program such as greenhouse gas abatement (Figure 6.1) and adaptation (Figure 6.2).

51 PwC, August 2014

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Figure 6.1: Marginal Abatement Cost Curve - Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction (McKinsey, 2009)

MAC curves rose in prominence after the 1997 Kyoto Protocol agreement as countries sought ways to optimize delivery of mandated greenhouse gas emission reductions. Various economists, research organizations, and consultancies have produced MAC curves. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2010) and McKinsey & Company (2010) have produced notable economy wide analyses on greenhouse gas emissions reductions for the United States and globally. MAC curves also provide powerful public policy tools for climate adaptation.

Salient features of MAC curves are shown in Figure 6.1, which displays a global suite of possible GHG mitigation options. Each bar represents a single carbon mitigation option; the width of the bar represents the abatement potential relative to business as usual; the height of the bar represents the abatement cost per year, relative to business as usual. The costs are expressed

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per tonne of emissions avoided52. The sum of the width of all the bars (x axis) represents the total carbon reduction potential; the area of each bar represents the marginal cost for that particular mitigation option.

Variations on the standard MAC curve have also been developed. For example, Figure 6.2 provides a similar assessment for enhanced adaptation and coastal protection in Florida. A suite of activities and their cost-benefit ratio are presented for coastal protection in a moderate climate scenario. All measures below a cost-benefit ratio of 1 provide net positive benefits.

Figure 6.2: Adaption Cost Curve - State of Florida (Creyts et al, 2007)

Advantages and disadvantages of MAC curves have been widely discussed (Vogt-Schilb and Hallegatte, 2014; Kesicki, 2010, Kesicki and Ekins, 2012). The advantages are a powerful visual display of results, which facilitates sharing, with considerable information, such as break-even lines. Discount rate can be customized by activity. Marginal costs (or benefits) are determined for any given project (or idea), and comparison can be made across sectors and entities (countries, cities, corporations). Disadvantages include: tendency to favour technological

52 Although CO2 is the most common greenhouse gas, various other gases also contribute to the greenhouse effect. Methane for example, is a very potent greenhouse gas, having a global warming potential around 25 times higher than CO2. For comparison, low carbon impacts in a MACC are normalized to CO2-equivalent.

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solutions over behavioural change; limitation of analysis to one point in time; path dependency not represented; and ancillary benefits not considered. Results are sensitive to assumptions, which are not always made transparent, so that the curves often convey unrealistic certainty. Actual costs of activities may also vary from those presented due to time dependency. Ekins et al (2011) further discuss the merits and concerns of MAC curves, and highlight the need to include health and social benefits when evaluating emissions abatement projects. Woodcock et al. confirm this approach in their study on the relationship between public health benefits and carbon emissions reduction strategies in urban transportation (Woodcock et al, 2009). The results show that reduction in carbon dioxide emissions through increases in active travel and reduced use of motor vehicles has significant health benefits.

MAC curves have been applied to the urban transportation sector, which is also considered in

this paper. For example, Hartgen et al (2011) assess the cost-effectiveness and CO2 reduction potentials for various changes in the US transportation sector, such as: improved fuel economy, transportation system improvements and shifts in travel behavior. CO2 emissions reduction potentials and the related costs are reported (Figure 6.3). The study covers 48 major urban areas in the United States.

Figure 6.3: Summary of Cost-effectiveness and CO2 Reduction Potentials in US Regions, reported by Hartgen et al, (2011)

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The objective of this chapter is to develop the concept of sustainability cost curves for cities. These cost curves build on the city-based physical and socio-economic underpinnings approach developed in Chapter 5.

The sustainability cost curve (SCC) is a modification of the abatement (and adaptation) approach, which offers a more comprehensive assessment of sustainability. The SCC estimates the costs and opportunities of increased sustainability accruing from long-lived urban infrastructure. The approach is initially applied to Toronto’s transportation sector and then applied to other cities. The sustainability potential is derived from the project’s impact on physical limits and socio-economic targets. Physical limits are a city-scale application of Rockstrom et al’s (2009) planetary limits and include climate change, biodiversity loss, fresh water use, change in land use, nitrogen cycle, pollution, and geophysical risk. Socio-economic limits, largely derived from the Millennium (and Sustainable) Development Goals include: youth opportunity; economy; energy access and intensity; mobility and connectivity; institutions; basic services, and; security and public safety (see Chapter 5).

6.2 Developing a Sustainability Cost Curve – Methodology

Sustainability cost curves can help decision-makers select among a variety of long-term investment options. Policy-makers can apply sustainability cost curves as merit order curves, to prioritize investments for greater sustainability, at lowest cost.

Each activity, or wedge, along the curve represents an additional opportunity to increase sustainability. The width (x-axis) of each wedge represents the increase in ‘sustainability potential’ that the opportunity could deliver to 2050. Sustainability potential is derived from the aggregate contribution of the fourteen physical and socio-economic indicators (Tables 5.1 and 5.2). Sustainability potential, SP, is determined by:

14 SP = ∑wi∆SIi (1) i=1 where ΔSIi denotes the estimated annual change in a sustainability indicator, weighted by wi. Changes that help to improve sustainability have a positive value for the change in sustainability indicator. Determination of the fourteen sustainability indicators is discussed (Chapter 5). The

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area of the wedge represents the activity’s total expenditure, which is the product of sustainability potential and unit cost of sustainability (UCS):

= × (2)

The𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 height𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 (y-axis)𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 ofa each𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 awedge𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 𝑈𝑈representsa the average net present cost of that activity, per unit of sustainability potential. Net present cost includes capital and operating costs – less operating revenues (but not increased land value). Costs include expected expenditures to 2050 (benefits only start accruing from year of commissioning, on some longer lived infrastructure a residual value at 2050 is estimated and discounted to today – a simple 50 percent discount rate on capital cost is used; operating costs are not discounted). Cost estimates are based on expected government or utility financial outlays for the activity. The approach closely aligns with public expenditure in local governments and utilities. The curve is ordered left to right from lowest cost to the highest cost opportunities.

SCCs provide an overview of available development alternatives, and offer a starting point to prioritize options. Sustainable development involves more than choosing between options with least cost or largest sustainability potential, however SCCs provide a quick way to gauge the relative merits of activities, as well as enable comparisons between sectors and cities. For example the degree of sustainability potential is consistent if derived for the transportation or energy sectors, and uses a common metric for any evaluated city. SCCs can help identify where policy interventions could be particularly effective, and can initiate dialogues among affected stakeholders.

Cost curves require a specific future date to evaluate costs and benefits against; 2050 is selected in this analysis. A relatively long planning horizon of 35 years (2015 to 2050) is used as this helps evaluate larger-scale long-lived civil works that may require 35 years or more to amortize investments. The longer time-frame also encourages a more comprehensive analysis of options, combining capital and operation costs. Long lead times are also necessary to bring about large- scale changes in sectors such as energy and transportation. Many of the options being evaluated, e.g. power plants and subway lines can take more than a decade to plan and build. Also, much of the critical infrastructure in today’s cities is older than 35 years; roads, rail and ports typically can last more than a century.

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Sustainability cost curves are proposed for the urban sectors of: energy; transportation and connectivity; basic service provision (water and sanitation). In this paper we provide a model cost curve for the transportation sector of metropolitan Toronto. Evaluated options are mostly seen as ‘the bones’ of a city, although policy initiatives can also be evaluated, e.g. the change to transfer pricing in the Toronto transportation analysis. Many of the investments are large-scale and can be provided through private-public partnerships or directly by the city or its designated utility. In all cases the metropolitan area is evaluated since most large-scale infrastructure such as transportation and energy systems are developed to serve the overall urban agglomeration (and sometimes beyond).

Initially larger cities are targeted for analysis as they generally possess greater staff capacities and data availability, and local research capacity, and larger cities also have greater global ecosystem impacts. A metropolitan wide scale is used as ecosystem impacts are influenced by the overall effect of the city and the actions of all of its residents. Metropolitan scale programs in areas such as energy and transportation also offer the greatest opportunity to ameliorate system impacts (Gerst et al, 2013).

Each city has a current value SIi and target value SIi* for each of its sustainability indicators. The target value is downscaled (based on population fraction) from global physical boundaries and socio-economic goals. Fourteen sustainability indicators are presented, some with multiple inputs and estimated indices. The limits are roughly half physical and half socio-economic (as outlined in Chapter 5).

Developing sustainability cost curves requires a degree of subjectivity. A proposal within this work is to make these estimates public and eventually ‘crowd sourced’. Initially this is proposed to be undertaken by respective (local) engineering faculties as many of the city-based values should emerge as public indicators and general ‘rules of thumb’ for the engineering community.

A key difference between marginal abatement cost curves such as McKinsey’s carbon mitigation proposal, and sustainability cost curves proposed in this thesis is the transparency of data assumptions. As outlined in Chapter 5 the boundaries (and objectives) that underpin sustainability cost curves are public estimates. These estimates would presumably be provided through the infrastructure planning process, similar to an environmental assessment. Retained

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engineers would be expected to estimate the sustainability costs and sustainability potential of every proposed long-lived urban infrastructure project. Continuous peer inputs for each city on sustainability estimates associated with the city and the specific project would move estimates toward greater accuracy. This ‘crowd sourced’ accuracy is evident in ‘guessing the weight of the ox’ (Galton, 1907), the point spread in Vegas-sanctioned sports bets, and the Iowa Electronics Market.53

6.3 Applying the Concept to Toronto’s Transportation System

Numerous planning reviews are available for metropolitan Toronto’s transportation sector. Preliminary budgeting and planning assessments are often available for proposed key infrastructure projects. The transportation planning authority Metrolinx published a comprehensive transportation Master Plan in 2008. The Toronto Transit Commission and Province of Ontario (various agencies, including Ministry of Transportation) have proposed several significant initiatives. Several key activities are examined to provide a demonstration of the SCC method:

90 Minute Transfer

The Toronto Transit commission (TTC) is considering a switch from its longstanding single- continuous-trip transfer system to time-based transfers. The ability to pay one fare and transfer as needed between buses, streetcars and subway trains is an integral part of TTC planning. The majority of TTC customers transfer at least once per journey. The TTC currently issues paper transfers to riders who pay fares with cash, tickets, or tokens and whose trip requires a change of vehicle. The existing transfer policy is purposely limited - transfers are only valid for a continuous one-way trip. Transfers must be used to transfer to the next available train or vehicle from a valid transfer point, which is usually a subway station or an on-street bus or streetcar at an intersecting route. Stopovers or return trips are not permitted, and the transfer can only be used by the passenger to which it was issued and on the day that it was issued. Under a time-based transfer system, transfers would allow riders to potentially re-enter the system within the

53 The Iowa Electronics Market http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/ established by the University of Iowa, College of Business provides a forum for peer-sanctioned electronic estimates. The facility has an uncanny ability to project elections and other market opinions. A similar city-focused market system is proposed to be established as part of the city negotiations approach envisaged in this thesis.

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prescribed time limit. TTC officials estimate an unrestricted-use time-based transfer valid for 2 hours would cost the TTC $20 million a year in lost revenues, while a 90-minute transfer would cost around $12 million a year (Toronto Transit Commission, 2014).

407 Extensions

Highway 407 known as the 407 ETR (Express Toll Route) is privately operated and tolled. The Highway 407 East extensions will be built in two phases: a 22 km extension to Harmony Road in Oshawa, as well as the West Durham Link, is scheduled to open in 2015; a further 43 km extension to Highway 35 and Highway 115, as well as the East Durham Link, is scheduled to open in 2020.

Union Pearson Express

The Union Pearson Express (UP Express) is an airport rail link service under construction in Toronto running between Canada’s two busiest transportation hubs: Union Station in downtown Toronto and Toronto Pearson International Airport. The project is to be completed in time for the 2015 Pan American Games. The UP Express is a division of Metrolinx. UP is to be a distinct service from its sister division with a unique visual identity, vehicles and fares, but will nonetheless share some common resources, including tracks, signals and maintenance facilities. An airport rail link was one of the priority projects identified in Metrolinx's regional transportation plan, The Big Move. The UP Express will travel from Union Station to Pearson in 25 minutes departing every 15 minutes, seven days a week. It is expected to carry 5,000 passengers per day, replacing approximately 1.2 million car trips in the first year alone. Construction began in 2011, some of which is being accommodated as part of the Georgetown South Project, expanding a rail corridor the UP Express will share with GO Transit and Via Rail. Initially, the UP Express will use diesel multiple unit (DMU) trains. The DMUs will be convertible to electric power, which will occur with the electrification of the Kitchener line and the UP Express at a future unspecified date. The decision to not use electric trains at launch has become a source of opposition and legal challenges from the Clean Train Coalition (CTC). So too the proposed $30-plus cost per passenger trip.

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Figure 6.4: Possible Transportation Projects in Toronto (Metrolinx)

Richmond Hill Subway Extension

The planned Yonge subway extension will extend 6.8 kilometers north from Finch Station to the Richmond Hill/Langstaff Urban Growth Centre at Highway 7. It will include up to six stations. This urban center will be a major transit hub where transit riders will be able to connect to GO Trains, GO Buses, TTC Subway, YRT\Viva buses, the future 407 transit way, and other transit services.

Downtown Relief Line

The Downtown Relief Line (DRL) is a proposed subway line in Toronto. Fully built, the line would form a shallow U-shape, running east-west through downtown (parallel to but south of the Bloor–Danforth subway line) and bending north on either side of downtown to meet stations

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on the Bloor–Danforth line (with possible extensions northward). The DRL is the latest of several plans for an east-west downtown subway line dating to the early 20th Century. Most of the proposed routes were along Queen Street, but current proposals favour a more southerly route through the Railway Lands and Union Station. The main rationale for the DRL is to reduce congestion on the Toronto Transit Commission's (TTC) Yonge Line, particularly at Bloor-Yonge Station, the main interchange with the Bloor–Danforth line. Planners see this as urgent because of the proposed extension of the Yonge Line to Richmond Hill, north of the city. In addition, the growth of downtown population and connecting high-density "shoulder areas" of downtown such as Liberty Village, City Place, the Entertainment District, Distillery District, and West Don Lands lack efficient higher order transit options and are experiencing an influx of high-rise transit-oriented development. Four DRLs alignments are proposed:

• From Pape to St. Andrew

• From Pape to Dundas West through St. Andrew

• From Don Mills at Eglinton through Pape to St. Andrew

• From Don Mills at Eglinton through Pape and St. Andrew to Dundas West

The two most likely DRL lines are denoted as DRL Don Mills and DRL Pape in the tables and graphs.

Pickering Airport

Pickering Airport is a proposed international airport to be built north-east of Toronto in Pickering, Ontario, Canada, approximately 65 km east of Toronto Pearson International Airport. It would serve the Greater Toronto Area and the Golden Horseshoe, and would (likely) be operated by the Greater Toronto Airports Authority (GTAA). Cost estimates of are approximately $2 billion; anticipating up to 11.9 million passengers per year by 2032.

The original plans for the airport were developed during the 1970s as part of a widespread federal government plan to improve air travel across Canada. Lands were expropriated in 1972, but opposition to the expansion plan was widespread. The plans were shelved in 1975 when

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the Government of Ontario stated it would not build the roads or sewers needed to service the site. A "Needs Assessment Study" was completed by the GTAA for the federal government in 2010. After a "due diligence review" Transport Canada released a report in 2011. A decision to proceed with airport planning and construction was announced on June 11, 2013.

Smart Track

The SmartTrack line is a Regional Express Rail ‘surface subway’ planned to connect major hubs in the GTA (Airport Corporate Centre in the west, southeast to Union Station and northeast to Markham in the east). The planed service year is 2021, and the line will have 22 stops at major interchanges. The SmartTrack is expected to help reduce congestion in both the current subway lines and road traffic. The 53 km surface subway line will use existing GO train rail alignments; while being integrated with the overall TTC system. Part of the attraction of the SmartTrack is its use of existing alignments and tracking and potential speed of implementation compared to subways requiring extensive tunneling. The estimated capital costs are $5.3 billion.

GO Electrification

GO train is a major part of GTHA’s public transit system. Currently the trains run on diesel fuel. Metrolinx began a review in 2009 on the feasibility of electrification of the entire GO rail system. Economic, environmental, social, health, and technological considerations led to the final conclusion as the feasibility of the project. Metrolinx, following the staff recommendations, has started the project in Phases, of which electrification of Union Station-Pearson Airport line is the first. The capital costs are estimated as $0.9 billion.

Rapid Transit Network Plan

Rapid Transit Network Plan is a complimentary to the existing Viva services and aims to identify new Viva services to expand York Region’s transit network. The plan was initiated to decrease traffic congestion, increase transit ridership, and increase schedule reliability, and will be in place from 2014 to 2017. The estimated capital costs are $132 million, and an average $37.4 million of operation and maintenance costs are expected.

Toronto – York Spadina Subway Extension (Vaughan Subway)

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Currently, Toronto’s subway lines are only within the City’s boundaries. Construction of an extension of the University-Spadina line started in 2010 and is planned to be in service in 2016. The Toronto - York Spadina Subway is an 8.6km extension from Downsview Station northwest (last station on University-Spadina line) through York University within the City of Toronto and north to the Vaughan Metropolitan Centre, in The Regional Municipality of York. Six stations are being constructed and 2,900 parking spaces will be available to encourage ridership. The estimated project costs are $2.6 billion, which are funded by the federal and provincial governments and the City of Toronto.

Mississauga LRT Projects

Metrolinx, along with the cities of Mississauga and Brampton are expanding and improving public transit in the area with a light rapid transit line from the Port Credit GO Station in Mississauga to the GO Station in Downtown Brampton. This Hurontario-Main LRT will be designed to address congestion and improve traffic along the corridor; 5-8 years of construction is expected.

GO Relief Projects

GO trains can serve some of the TTC riders during peak hours by increasing train frequency. For example, a GO train trip can be scheduled to move TTC riders on the Danforth Subway Line from Main subway station to downtown directly. An estimated 5,000-20,000 TTC riders can use this service by getting off the subway at Main Station, walk, or ride a TTC bus, to Danforth GO Station, take the peak hour GO train that is scheduled between Danforth and Union Station, and get to downtown in only 10 min. With this project, a considerable passenger load is diverted from the TTC Yonge and Bloor lines. The cost to operate 12 additional trips on the 10-km line between Union and Main Street every morning and evening peak would be about $1.4 million per year. Similar ideas can be applied from Kennedy (east of Toronto) and Kipling (west of Toronto) subway stations to Union Station. These projects are marked as ‘GO Relief’ in following tables and figures.

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Alternative Transportation Options for Metropolitan Toronto

In addition to the current transportation projects proposed through Metrolinx’s ‘The Big Move', the TTC, and other government agencies, three additional options are evaluated here and placed within the Region’s sustainability cost curve (for transportation).

The options, which complement the Big Move, reduce GHG emissions and congestion, and encourage greater economic development and enhance urban resilience in the GTA. The three additional options assessed are:

1. Expansion by 30 percent of current market penetration of electric and natural gas vehicles.

2. Introduction of a Highway 401/407 bus rapid transit (BRT) system. This would include stops at designated interchanges where associated electric vehicle parking lots would be located. Passengers would use privately owned EVs to drive to work and locally.

3. Expansion of the BRT system to Waterloo, Niagara Falls, Ottawa, Kingston, and Montreal, along with publicly available (shared) EVs at key parking lots. Passengers could drive EVs (personal or shared) to home or work, and locally. Cars are recharged at parking lots and homes, mostly at night thereby taking advantage of relative surplus electricity at night. Natural gas conversion of heavy duty trucks, buses and conversion of some automobiles is also included (a separate truck transport by-pass alignment is also proposed).

Option 1 is largely ‘business as usual’ with recognition of an emerging price for carbon, and natural gas being a long term cheaper, and cleaner fuel source than gasoline and diesel. Option 2 is the emergence of a more collective and integrated commuter approach. Option 3 is best characterized as a ‘sharing economy’ where most vehicles are shared rather than owned and connectivity is maximized in order to support greater productivity and economic development (as well as improved quality of life) in the Region.

Data for each of the transportation options is used to estimate sustainability potential. Tables 6.1 and 6.2 provide the changes made in the physical and socio-economic indicators of sustainability

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due to the implementation of each transportation option. Tables 6.3 and 6.4 contain information regarding the estimations of changes in each indicator.

A summary of the cost data, values of sustainability potential, and operating costs to 2050 for all transportation activities are provided in Table 6.3 (1-3). The final sustainability cost curve is shown in Figure 6.7. Launching a natural gas powered bus rapid transit (BRT) system across the GTHA, and initiating an EV car-sharing program connected to the BRT lines (Option 3) has the highest sustainability potential compared to other options. SmartTrack surface-rail expansion has the next highest sustainability potential. Comparatively the 90 minute transfer option provides high sustainability potential at the lowest unit-cost. This highlights how operational changes can yield significant sustainability benefits with minimal cost or infrastructure requirements. The sustainability cost curves provide an important venue to explore comparable initiatives that may, or may not, require major infrastructure investment.

Within the sustainability cost curve calculations changes in ‘carbon emissions intensity’, ‘population density’, and ‘percentage of commuters using a travel mode other than a personal vehicle to work’ have more significant impacts on the sustainability potential of a transportation project. The ‘number of new users’ benefiting from a transportation project also affects the results. Therefore, changes made to any of the indicators are greater for projects with a larger ‘new daily users’. Among the transportation projects in Toronto, the GTHA-BRT Line has the highest sustainability potential due to its relatively large number (1,143,000) of New Daily Users. Conversely the relatively high ‘cost per unit sustainability’ (4.89) for the Highway 407 extension is driven by the small number of ‘new daily users’ (6,000). See Figure 6.5.

The two relative extremes between the highest ‘sustainability potential’ (49.48) for the GTHA- BRT and the high ‘cost per unit sustainability’ (4.89) for the Highway 407 extension highlight why a systems approach is needed when interpreting sustainability cost curves. For example when viewed in isolation sustainability merits of the Highway 407 extension are moderate, however when integrated as part of a broader program with electric vehicles and development of a region-wide BRT the extension emerges as a critical component. Estimates for changes in physical and socio-economic indicators for Toronto transportation projects are provided in Appendix 10.

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Table 6.1a: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors (1) – Toronto Transportation

Subway 90 Min 407 UP DRL Pickering Go Subway Subway Durham- Mississauga Cost Estimation (US$ billion ) Richmond Viva Transfer Ext. Exp. Pape Airport Electrification Modification Vaughn Scarborough 403 Hill

Total Cost 0.00 1.00 0.38 2.50 3.32 2.00 1.51 0.86 2.25 2.72 0.37 0.26 Operation Cost 0.00 0.60 0.31 0.28 0.60 0.18 0.21 0.42 0.93 0.40 0.19 0.14 Residual Value in 2050 0.00 0.00 0.19 1.25 1.66 1.00 0.75 0.43 1.13 1.36 0.18 0.13 Residual Value with 50% Discount 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.63 0.83 0.50 0.38 0.21 0.56 0.68 0.09 0.06 Factor Revenues from New Users -0.49 -7.84 -1.51 -1.73 -0.74 -0.30 -0.07 -0.44 -2.07 -1.38 -0.03 -0.02 Users' Benefit -0.875 -0.25 -0.50 -2.76 -1.84 -0.60 -3.06 -0.48 -0.85 -0.37 -0.23 -0.16 New Daily Users 100,000 6,000 6,000 50,000 53,600 32,600 7,667 4,617 150,000 40,000 12,000 14,153 Net Cost 0.00 1.60 0.59 2.16 3.09 1.68 1.34 1.06 2.62 2.44 0.47 0.33 Operation Starting Year 2015 2015 2023 2023 2023 2030 2018 2023 2023 2016 2021 2021 Sustainability Factor 5.97 0.33 0.54 3.04 3.21 1.10 0.87 0.56 4.51 3.52 1.19 1.03 Potential per Year 4.43 0.01 0.03 1.46 1.66 0.47 0.05 0.02 6.52 1.08 0.13 0.13 Cost per Unit of Sustainability 0.00 4.89 1.09 0.71 0.96 1.53 1.54 1.91 0.58 0.69 0.39 0.32

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Table 6.1b: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors (2) – Toronto Transportation

GO GO Cost Estimation (US$ Eglinton DRL Mississauga GO Relief Hurontario Finch Brampton Scarborough Sheppard Smart Relief Relief billion ) Cross Don Mills BRT Danforth LRT LRT LRT LRT LRT Track Kennedy Kipling

Total Cost 5.24 8.62 0.37 0.10 0.05 0.01 1.02 1.08 0.52 1.13 1.15 5.30 Operation Cost 1.05 1.08 0.25 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.38 0.30 0.11 0.25 0.39 1.00 Residual Value in 2050 2.62 4.31 0.18 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.51 0.54 0.26 0.56 0.57 2.65 Residual Value with 50% 1.31 2.16 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.26 0.27 0.13 0.28 0.29 1.33 Discount Factor Revenues from New Users -0.61 -2.03 -0.05 -0.07 -0.05 -0.03 -0.11 -0.19 -0.07 -0.21 -0.19 2.50 Users' Benefit -3.06 -1.93 -1.54 -0.17 -0.07 -0.02 -3.56 -0.66 -0.44 -0.98 -0.65 2.00 New Daily Users 44,000 147,400 11,340 5,000 1,250 250 25,560 54,700 6,600 15,000 13,750 200,000 Net Cost 4.98 7.54 0.53 0.11 0.09 0.06 1.15 1.12 0.50 1.10 1.25 4.98 Operation Starting Year 2020 2023 2021 2023 2023 2023 2021 2020 2021 2023 2021 2021 Sustainability Factor 2.78 5.16 0.86 0.54 0.34 0.26 1.72 3.35 0.59 1.08 1.00 6.51 Potential per Year 1.06 7.32 0.09 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.39 1.59 0.03 0.16 0.12 11.67 Cost per Unit of 1.79 1.46 0.61 0.20 0.27 0.22 0.67 0.33 0.86 1.02 1.25 0.76 Sustainability

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Table 6.1c: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors (3) – Toronto Transportation

EV-NGV Market Cost Estimation (US$ billion ) GTHA BRT 407 BRT Expansion

Total Cost 14.57 1.39 3.40 Operation Cost 0.82 0.16 1.00 Residual Value in 2050 7.29 0.70 1.70 Residual Value with 50% Discount 3.64 0.35 0.85 Factor Revenues from New Users -1.00 -1.00 -0.20 Users' Benefit -1.00 -1.00 -0.20 New Daily Users 285,640 5,940 1,143,000 Net Cost 11.75 1.21 3.55 Operation Starting Year 2020 2020 2016 Sustainability Factor 19.99 0.66 7.58 Potential per Year 49.48 0.03 6.63 Cost per Unit of Sustainability 0.59 1.84 0.47

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Figure 6.5: Sustainability Cost Curve (Transportation - Toronto)

6.0 407 Extension GO Electrification

407 BRT 5.0 Eglinton Crosstown

Viva

GO Relief 4.0 Pickering Airport Mississauga 403

LRT Finch LRT Sheppard

3.0 Durham-Scarborough BRT Union Pearson Express DRL Pape-St Andrew LRT Brampton

EV-NGV Market Expansion Vaughn Subway 2.0 Mississauga BRT

Subway Modernization

SUSTAINABILITY COST ($ BILLION PER UNIT OF SUSTAINABILITY) OF UNIT PER BILLION ($ COST SUSTAINABILITY 1.0 90 min Transfer GTHA BRT (CNG bus) DRL Don Mills Smart Track 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 SUSTAINABILTY POTENTIAL PER YEAR

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6.4 Applying Sustainability Cost Curves across Cities

As illustrated in Section 6.2 detailed sustainability cost curves can be developed for a sector, such as transportation in, in individual cities, e.g. transportation and connectivity in Toronto. As use grows and cost curves emerge in various cities their application across cities becomes useful. The investments are relative to each other in constant costs (US$), a common time-frame (to 2050), and local application of planetary boundaries and SDGs (consistent within the global framework for the world’s larger cities). Potential infrastructure, and related operational activities, e.g. 90 minute subway transfer in Toronto, can be compared within and across cities.

The cities of Dakar, Mumbai, Sao Paulo and Shanghai, along with Toronto, were selected as trial cities for application of the methodology. Mumbai, Sao Paulo and Shanghai are the largest cities of India, Brazil and China respectively and exhibit well the rapid growth and infrastructure development in these countries and regions. All three metro-cities have populations in excess of 10 million, and are expected to continue to grow to 2050. Dakar is also the largest city in Senegal, but is smaller than Mumbai, Sao Paul and Shanghai. Dakar is an important city to investigate as it is typical of fast growing African cities and population is expected to surpass Mumbai, Sao Paulo or Shanghai before 2100.

6.4.1. Dakar, Senegal

Three representative transportation projects are evaluated. The bus renewal project is already complete, and the International Airport is being commissioned. Assessment of the toll highway, is from the user’s perspective (the main providers of toll revenues). Optics of the investment could differ if assessed from local government’s perspective (who would provide minimal finance while recouping some benefit).

Blaise Diagne International Airport

The Blaise Diagne International Airport is an international airport under construction near the town of Diass, Senegal about 40 km from Dakar. It will serve as the new main international airport for Dakar, as the old Léopold Sédar Senghor International Airport is too small for future operations. The airport will have an initial operating capacity of 3 million passengers per year with a single runway and is expected to be open 2014/2015. A second development phase could

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provide capacity for 10 million passengers a year with development of a second runway. The total capital costs are estimated as $0.38 billion.

Dakar Diamniadio Toll Highway

The Dakar Diamniadio Toll Highway (DDTH) will provide the Dakar peninsula with a 32 km, 3 lane dual carriageway to improve the flow of goods and people between the capital and the new International Airport, the Dakar Integrated Special Economic Zone (DISEZ), as well as the rest of the country and the wider sub-region. As part of a national plan to massively upgrade national infrastructure, the government hopes to facilitate the rapid movement of goods and people into and out of Dakar and provide a down-town to airport target transfer time of 30 minutes. The highway also encourages development outside main downtown congested areas, as well as establishing sub-regional corridors from Dakar to Bamako, Banjul (Gambia), Bissau (Guinea Bissau), Conakry (Guinea Conakry). The project’s estimated capital cost is $531 million and is expected to open in 2017.

Bus Renewal

A leasing mechanism was launched by the International Development Association (IDA – World Bank) to implement an urban mobility improvement project in Dakar. The goal was to renew the ageing mini-bus fleet, which is mostly operated by independent drivers. In 2008 505 new mini- buses replaced one-fifth of the existing fleet. Due to the improved passenger comfort and less maintenance costs of the new vehicles, the revenue for the owners increased, although the fare increase was kept to a minimum. IDA funded 75 percent of the program ($16 million), and the remainder was paid by vehicle owners through a leasing scheme.

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Table 6.2: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors of Transportation Projects in Dakar

Blaise Diagne Cost Estimation (US$ billion ) Toll Highway Bus Renewal Airport Total Cost 0.376 0.531 0.02 Operation Cost 1.30 1.75 0.07 Residual Value in 2050 0.19 0.27 0.01 Residual Value with 50% Discount Factor 0.09 0.13 0.01 Revenues from New Users -3.5 -1.5 -0.2 Users' Benefit New Daily Users 27,400 50,000 95,000 Net Cost 1.58 2.15 0.09 Operation Starting Year 2015 2015 2010 Sustainability Factor 37.04 21.37 13.60 Potential per Year 7.54 7.94 8.40 Cost per Unit of Sustainability 0.04 0.10 0.01

Figure 6.6: Sustainability Cost Curve (Transportation – Dakar)

0.12

Toll Highway

0.10

0.08

0.06 Blaise Diagne Airport SUSTAINABILITY) 0.04

0.02

SUSTAINABILITY COST ($ BILLION PER UNIT OF UNIT PER BILLION ($ COST SUSTAINABILITY Bus Renewal

0.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 SUSTAINABILITY POTENTIAL PER YEAR

As illustrated in Fig 6.6 the bus renewal project in Dakar provides considerable sustainability potential for relativel low cost. This is largely driven by the large number (95,000) of daily users and low net cost ($0.09 billion). The project also increased use of public transit, thereby reducing

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greenhouse gas emissions (newer, more efficient mini-buses were provided). Similar to other projects the toll highway costs do not fully reflect increased land values. As information improves subsequent iterations of the project may provide different values.

6.4.2. Mumbai, India

Mumbai, with a population of 20 million is India’s largest city and experiencing severe mobility challenges. Four projects are evaluated, a metro line, monorail, freeway, and trans-harbor link.

Metro Line 3

The Mumbai Metro is a major infrastructure project under India’s Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS), currently operational in the metro cities of Kolkata, Delhi, and Bangalore. Metro Line 3 (Colaba – Bandra – SEEPZ) is 32.50 km long and fully underground with 27 stations. It connects major business districts of Nariman Point, Bandra-Kurla Complex, the Domestic and International Airports, and industrial areas of MIDC and SEEPZ. The project is managed by Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) and is funded by Japan International Co-operation Agency (JICA).

The Mumbai Metro will have an automatic fare collection system, with smart cards available for multiple journeys. The trains will operate for 18.5 hours per day (5:30 am to midnight). Metro line 3 will cost around $3.7 billion and is expected to be completed by 2020.

Monorail

The monorail is a rail-based transportation system and the country’s first monorail. Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority is implementing the project in association with Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and the Malaysian firm Scomi Engineering. The monorail will have a top speed of 80 kilometres per hour and an overall scheduled speed of 31 kilometres per hour. The project initiated in 2008 is 20 km long and will cost around $0.43 billion. Estimated operation and maintenance costs are $39 million a year (up from 2007 estimates of $16 million). The monorail system is designed to carry 200,000 passengers per day (7,500 passengers at peak times).

Eastern Freeway

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The Mumbai Eastern Freeway is a 16.9 kilometer highway specially designed for high-speed vehicular traffic between the Fort area in South Mumbai and Eastern Express Highway in Ghatkopar. The Eastern Freeway will be completed in three phases: the first (9.3 km) runs from SV Patel junction on P D'Mello Road and meets Anik-Panjarpol Link Road via Mumbai Port Trust (MbPT); the second (4.3 km) starts from Anik to Panjarpol, and; Panjarpol to Mankhurd and then to Ghatkopar on the Eastern Express Highway. The last phase is 3 km long. The elevated portion of the Eastern Freeway is equipped with seismic arresters that can tolerate an earthquake of 7.5 Richter scale. The Freeway is specially designed for multi-axle vehicles with steel crash barriers installed to stop vehicles from entering opposite lanes. The project includes two 500 m long tunnels at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) Mountain. The estimated capital costs are $0.2 billion and the highway is expected to be open in 2015.

Mumbai Trans Harbor Link

Mumbai Trans Harbour Link (MTHL) was proposed to reduce congestion in Mumbai by improving connectivity between Island city and the main land (Navi Mumbai) and for development of the Navi Mumbai Region. Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) played an important role in the planning of this project. The length of the Link is 22 km in total (16.5 km as a bridge) and will cost near $1.6 billion. Purported benefits of the project include:

• Development of areas in Navi Mumbai and Raigad District. • Faster connectivity to the proposed International Airport in Navi Mumbai. • Savings in fuel and vehicle operating cost/travel time of commuters due to reduction in distance between Mumbai and Navi Mumbai, Raigad & Konkan. • Decongestion of traffic in Mumbai city.

Table 6.3 gives cost estimates for the four assessed transportation projects in Mumbai. Metro Line 3 is expected to have more than 860,000 new daily users, which is considerably higher than the other projects, and therefore has a high (78.39) annual sustainability potential. The relatively small number of daily users for the eastern highway and trans-harbor link (50,000 each) results in their low sustainability potential (0.44 and 0.52 respectively).

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Table 6.3: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors for Mumbai Projects

Mumbai Mumbai Trans Cost Estimation (US$ billion) Metro Line 3 Eastern Highway Monorail Harbor Link Total Cost 3.74 0.43 0.2 1.56 Operation Cost 1.90 1.34 0.36 0.36 Residual Value in 2050 1.87 0.22 0.10 0.78 Residual Value with 50% Discount Factor 0.94 0.11 0.05 0.39 Revenues from New Users -1.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 Users' Benefit New Daily Users 864,000 200,000 50,000 50,000 Net Cost 4.71 1.66 0.51 1.53 Operation Starting Year 2020 2015 2015 2020 Sustainability Factor 10.47 2.61 1.19 1.20 Potential per Year 78.39 3.88 0.44 0.52 Cost per Unit of Sustainability 0.45 0.64 0.43 1.27

Figure 6.7: Sustainability Cost Curve (Transportation – Mumbai)

1.4 Mumbai Trans Harbor Link 1.2

1.0

0.8 Mumbai Monorail Eastern Highway 0.6 Metro Line 3 SUSTAINABILITY) 0.4

0.2 SUSTAINABILITY COST ($ BILLION PER UNIT OF UNIT PER BILLION ($ COST SUSTAINABILITY

0.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 SUSTAINABILITY POTENTIAL PER YEAR

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6.4.3. Sao Paulo, Brazil

Sao Paulo’s congestion challenges are severe. The more affluent can resign themselves to use helicopters while single traffic jams can exceed 200 kilometers. Much work is underway, although the task is enormous. Four representative projects were evaluated.

Monorail

The Sao Paulo Monorail system is designed to connect Vila Prudent and Cidade Triadentes (trains to be supplied by Bombardier Transportation). The journey that now takes almost two hours by car will be reduced to approximately 50 minutes by the new monorail system, benefiting 500,000 users daily. The project is an extension of subway (metro) line 2. The line will be 24 km long with 17 stations. The estimated capital costs are $1.6 billion.

Subway Extension Line 5

The objective of the Sao Paulo Line 5 project for Sao Paulo is to improve public mobility in the Capao Redondo – Treze-Chacara Klabin corridor in a cost effective and environmentally sound manner. The expansion encompasses the construction of 11.7 kilometers of track, 11 new stations, and the purchase of 26 new trains. The project’s capital costs are estimated at $2.5 billion and is expected to open December 2016.

Monorail Line 17

Line 17 is one of the several new monorail lines planned to complement the city’s existing rail network. The line is an 18 km driverless system designed to move 250,000 passengers a day, with trains travelling at 90 second intervals. The line has 18 stations and 24 trains. Line 17 connects Congonhas International Airport to the metro rail network, linking four metro lines – lines 1, 4, 5 and 9 – and three bus corridors. Project implementation was completed in three phases; final completion was in 2014.

Sustainable Transport Project

The objective of the Sao Paulo Sustainable Transport Project is to improve the efficiency and safety of transport and logistics, while also enhancing capacity in disaster risk management. The

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project has three components. The first component will provide support to improve the State’s transport and logistics efficiency and safety through the following activities:

(i) Rehabilitating and upgrading the State’s transport network

(ii) Sustainable transport planning and management

The second component is strengthening sustainable environmental and land use planning and territorial management capacity. This component will provide support in the area of land use planning and territorial management and environmental management through the following activities:

(a) Supporting sustainable land use planning and territorial management

(b) Improving environmental enforcement and environment quality monitoring

The third component is increasing resilience to natural disasters. This component will provide support to enhance capacity to plan for and manage disasters through the following activities:

(1) Mainstreaming disaster risk management in the transport sector

(2) Enhancing disaster risk management policy and institutional capacity.

Sao Paulo’s sustainable transport project as an integrated multi-faceted initiative serves the highest number of new daily users and therefore provides which results in the highest sustainability potential among the four studied transportation projects (53.1). The cost per unit of sustainability for this project is also the lowest due to the lower capital cost of a highway compared to a subway line.

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Table 6.4: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors for Transportation Projects in Sao Paulo

Sustainable Cost Estimation (US$ billion) Monorail Line 2 Line 5 Expansion Monorail Line 17 Transport Project Total Cost 1.6 2.516 1.22 0.429 Operation Cost 7.50 8.80 4.30 0.60 Residual Value in 2050 0.80 1.26 0.61 0.21 Residual Value with 50% Discount Factor 0.40 0.63 0.31 0.11 Revenues from New Users -7.3 -4.9 -3.7 -0.36 Users' Benefit New Daily Users 500,000 334,000 252,000 1,000,000 Net Cost 8.70 10.69 5.22 0.92 Operation Starting Year 2015 2016 2010 2020 Sustainability Factor 5.28 3.42 2.75 6.13 Potential per Year 19.60 8.72 4.50 53.10 Cost per Unit of Sustainability 1.65 3.13 1.90 0.15

Figure 6.8: Sustainability Cost Curve (Transportation – Sao Paulo)

3.5 Line 5 Expansion 3.0

2.5 Monorail Line 17

2.0 Monorail Line 2

1.5 SUSTAINABILITY) 1.0

0.5

SUSTAINABILITY COST ($ BILLION PER UNIT OF UNIT PER BILLION ($ COST SUSTAINABILITY Sustainable Transport Project

0.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 SUSTAINABILITY POTENTIAL PER YEAR

6.4.4. Shanghai, China

Shanghai has China's longest subway network (476 km), which is longer than New York (370 km) and London (439 km). The network is set to reach 877 km by 2020. Table 6.5 provides

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general information regarding Shanghai’s subway network. The sustainability potential of the four studied projects is provided in Figure 6.9.

Table 6.5: Shanghai Subway Network Data

O&M total metro lines cost, million-dollar/year 905

Shanghai total metro length, km 476

O&M cost million$/ km-year 1.90

Total subway annual ridership, million-passengers/year 2,276

Average ridership per one km subway line, passenger/km-day 13,100

Transport projects considered for Shanghai are subway extension lines 11, 8, 10 and 2. Average capital and O&M costs are $84 million/km and $1.9 million/km-year, respectively. For each project the physical and social science indicators are evaluated against estimates for the costs and financial benefits of the project. The net cost of each activity (from published data) and the total sustainability factor obtained from the physical and socio-economic indicators are plotted. The activities are plotted relative to each other to yield a sustainability cost curve (Figure6.9).

Shanghai Subway – Line 11

Line 11 is a northwest-southeast line of the Shanghai subway network. The line is 72 km long and has 35 stations. Daily ridership for 2014 is estimated at 630,000. Metro Line 11 will be extended from its Luoshan Road to Disneyland, a 9.15 kilometer stretch costing $0.70 billion.

Shanghai Subway – Line 8

Line 8 is a north-south line of the Shanghai subway network. It is 37.4 km and has 30 stations with an estimated 935,000 daily ridership in 2014. Metro Line 8 will go beyond the Shanghai Aerospace Museum stop to Huizhen Road with a 6.6 kilometer extension costing $0.36 billion.

Shanghai Subway – Line 10

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Line 10 is a west-northeast line of the Shanghai subway network. The line is 29.6 km long and has 27 stations. Daily ridership for 2014 is estimated at 808,000. Metro Line 10 will be made 10 kilometers longer with a new route from New Jiangwan City to Gangchen Road at a cost of $0.94 billion.

Shanghai Subway – Line 2

Line 2 is an east-west line of Shanghai subway network. Its length is 60 km and it has 31 stations. Daily ridership for 2013 is estimated at 1,650,000. Metro Line 2 will extend 2 kilometers eastward, from Xujingdong to Panlong Road, with an investment of $0.21 billion.

The transportation projects in Shanghai have relatively similar sustainability potential since they all advocate public transit. Slight differences in the results are loinked to the number of new daily users and revenues from new users. Subway Line 2 has a relatively lower number of new users that leads it to having the lowest sustainability potential.

Table 6.6: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors for Shanghai Transportation Projects

Cost Estimation (US$ billion) Subway-Line 11 Subway-Line 8 Subway-Line 10 Subway-Line 2 Total Cost 0.7 0.36 0.94 0.21 Operation Cost 0.61 0.44 0.67 0.13 Residual Value in 2050 0.35 0.18 0.47 0.11 Residual Value with 50% Discount Factor 0.18 0.09 0.24 0.05 Revenues from New Users -2 -1.5 -0.2 -0.36 Users' Benefit New Daily Users 120,520 86,460 131,000 26,200 Net Cost 1.14 0.71 1.37 0.29 Operation Starting Year 2015 2015 2015 2015 Sustainability Factor 2.98 2.61 2.52 1.89 Potential per Year 2.66 1.68 2.45 0.37 Cost per Unit of Sustainability 0.38 0.27 0.54 0.15

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Figure 6.9: Sustainability Cost Curve (Transportation - Shanghai)

0.6 Subway Line 10

0.5

Subway Line 11 0.4

Subway Line 8 0.3

SUSTAINABILITY) 0.2 Subway 2 Line

0.1

SUSTAINABILITY COST ($ BILLION PER UNIT OF UNIT PER BILLION ($ COST SUSTAINABILITY 0.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 SUSTAINABILITY POTENTIAL PER YEAR

Figure 6.10 provides a consolidated cost curve for transportation projects in the five assessed cities. Three projects emerge Sustainable Transport (Sao Paulo), Metro Line 3 (Mumbai), and Regional Rapid Transit (Toronto) with Sustainability Potential above 50. The lowest cost per unit of sustainability is the Toronto 90 minute transfer, and highest is 407 Extension (Toronto). Reflecting the low level of current transportation infrastructure all reviewed investments in Dakar provide low sustainability cost options.

The costs and assumed benefits are indicative (proof of concept) at this time. Through refined local estimates a more accurate assessment will emerge. The method is not intended to have projects compete against each other, but rather provide indicative priorities and assist in the refining the questions of ‘what are the priorities?’

The figure (e.g. Fig. 6.10) is key for structuring the “deal” envisaged in this theis as it shows where optimum urban projects are from a global sustainability perspective. Estimates for changes in physical and socio-economic indicators for Dakar, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai transportation projects are provided in Appendix 11.

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Figure 6.10: Sustainability Cost Curve - Transportation Projects in Five Major Cities

6.0 90 min Transfer (Toronto) 407 Extension (Toronto) Bus Renewal (Dakar)

Second Railway (Dakar) 5.0 GO Electrification (Toronto) Blaise Diagne Airport (Dakar)

Toll Highway (Dakar) Monorail Line 17 (Sao Paulo)

4.0

Viva (Toronto)

Mumbai Trans Harbor Link 3.0 Union Pearson Express (Toronto) Subway Line 11 (Shanghai) Subway Line 8 2.0 (Shanghai) Smart Track (Toronto) Subway Line 10 Eastern Highway (Shanghai) (Mumbai) Subway Line 2 Mumbai Monorail (Shanghai) 1.0 SUSTAINABILITY COST ($ BILLION PER UNIT OF SUSTAINABILITY) OF UNIT PER BILLION ($ COST SUSTAINABILITY GTHA BRT (Toronto) Metro Line 3 (Mumbai) Paulo)Expansion (Sao 5 Line

Sustainable Transport (Sao Paulo) Project (Sao Paulo) Monorail Line 2 0.0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 SUSTAINABILITY POTENTIAL PER YEAR

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6.5 Applying Sustainability Cost Curves in Other Sectors

Similar to how sustainability cost curves can be applied across cities (Sec 6.2), so too can they be applied across sectors. The three key sectors envisaged for sustainability cost curves are (i) transpportation; (ii) energy; and (iii) basic services. These are all inter-related of course. For example transportation projects like metrorail systems can not move forward if there is not sufficient electricity provision, and improved waste management relies on an adequate transportation system. For illustrative purposes five projects in the Toronto region are assessed: Niagara Tunnel hydroelectric project; Refurbishment of Darlington and Bruce Nuclear Power Plants; Durham York Energy Center; and Green Lane Landfill. Some of these are already completed, however the methodoology is consistent with existing or proposed infrastructure.

Niagara Tunnel Project

The Niagara Tunnel project was commissioned in 2013 with the purpose of generating more electricity through available hydropower. The project is expected to provide renewable hydropower for the next 100 year (tunnel design life 100 years). The Tunnel directs water from the Niagara River to the Sir Adam Beck Generation Station, a hydro-power plant 10.2 km downstream the tunnel’s intake. The tunnel delivers enough water to increase average annual energy output by 1.6 GWh (supply for about 160,000 Ontario homes). Total capital cost of the project was $1.6 billion.

Darlington Nuclear Power Plant Refurbishment

Darlington power plant began operating in 1990. Nearly 20 percent of Ontario’s overall electricity supply is generated by the Darlington power plant. After 25 years of operation, the facility requires a mid-life refurbishment, which is planned for 2016. The decision making process, budget allocations, regulatory approvals, extensive inspections and benchmarking have so far taken nearly 6 years. The project is budgeted at $8 billion over 4 years.

Bruce Nuclear Power Plant Refurbishment

Located in Tiverton (Ontario), Bruce Nuclear Facility is the largest power plant in North America with a nominal power output of 6,600 MW. The facility has two nuclear stations, Bruce

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A and B, each with four CANDU nuclear reactors. Refurbishment of Bruce A was completed in 2012, and the Government of Ontario plans to authorize refurbishment of Bruce B, units 5-8, to secure their 6,300 MW baseload electricity supply. Project costs are estimated at $12 billion.

Durham York Energy Centre (Incinerator)

The regions of Durham and York collaborated to develop ways to manage household solid waste. Based on recommendations in the Durham/York Residual Waste Study, the two Regions approved construction of an energy from waste (EFW) facility that will generate 17.5 MW electricity from 140,000 tonnes of residential waste, annually. The facility is located in the Municipality of Clarington on 12-hectares, north of the Courtice Water Pollution Control Plant, in The Regional Municipality of Durham. Energy sold to the electricity grid will partially offset the annual operating costs of the facility. The capital cost of the project are approximately $0.272 billion. Waste tipping fees are up to $150/tonne for the Durham-York Incinerator.

Toronto Green Lane Landfill

The city of Toronto acquired the Green Lane landfill located in London, Ontario to dispose of residential waste. Prior to Green Lane Landfill Toronto shipped its residential waste to Michigan. Toronto operations at Green Lane Landfill began in 2010. The estimated site capacity is 15 million cubic meters, approximate life expectancy is 28 years with a 70 percent waste diversion level. Cost of waste disposal at the landfill is $67/tonne.

6.6 Conclusion

Sustainability cost curves provide an effective tool to compare projects within cities in the same sector (Figure 6.5), between cities (Figure 6.10), and across sectors (Figure 6.11). These curves can be readily communicated to the public, helping to better prioritize infrastructure investment. They are based on public assumptions on physical and socio-economic objectives (Chapter 5) and can quickly be updated as new information emerges. Every city can have a typical “urbanscape” made up of their own unique sustainability cost curve. These curves can be readily aggregated regionally, nationally, or globally.

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The sustainability cost curves presented in this Chapter are not constrained by limitations often found in marginal abatement cost curves, i.e. limited data availability and undisclosed assumptions. They are developed more as an ‘engineering tool’ than a finance or economic analysis of possible projects. Engineering analyses of a cities possible infrastructure development can apply a ‘factor of sustainability’ in a similar manner that today’s engineering analyses now apply factors of safety.

Each participating city (urban area) can readily develop their own sustainability cost curves for transportation and connectivity, energy and basic services. As shown in Figure 6.11 a simple ‘hierarchy of investment’ is likely to emerge that tends to favor basic service provision (water and waste management) , then energy supply, and finally transportation and connectivity projects. This reflects the relatively higher costs of transportation infrastructure and the need to first meet basic needs before investing in urban infrastructure that drives the urban economy. The relative sustainability of transportation projects also varies considerably as it is largely dependent on numbers of users and as presented in this Chapter does not yet fully capture potential increases in land values.

Sustainability cost curves could provide cities with an important tool to enter into discussions and negotiations globally and with their national governments as a significant contribution to sustainable development.

Table 6.7: Cost Estimation and Sustainability Factors for Toronto Energy and Basic Services Projects

Darlington Durham York Toronto’s Landfill Cost Estimation (US$ billion) Niagara Tunnel Bruce Refurb Refurb Incinerator Greenlane Total Cost 1.6 8 12 0.27 0.22 Operation Cost 0.53 0.43 Residual Value in 2050 0.8 4 6 0.14 0.11 Residual Value with 50% 0.4 2 3 0.07 0.06 Discount Factor Revenue 1.48 38.88 51.84 0.31 0.61 Net Cost 1.2 6 9 0.73 0.60 Number of New Users 416,000 2,500,000 1,900,000 1,500,000 5,900,000 Operation Starting Year 2013 2020 2020 2014 2010 Sustainability Factor 9.92 9.16 9.32 3.43 4.73 Potential per Year 0.27 0.31 0.31 0.1 0.12 Cost per Unit of Sustainability 0.12 0.66 0.97 0.21 0.13

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Figure 6.11: Sustainability Cost Curve- Toronto Aggregated Projects: Transportation, Energy, Basic Services

6.0

407 Extension

5.0 Go Electric

GO Electrification Niagara Tunnel 407 BRT 4.0 Toronto Landfill Greenway Eglinton Crosstown Durham-York Incinerator Viva Go Relief Pickering Airport 3.0 Mississauga 403 LRT Finch LRT Sheppard

Durham-Scarborough BRT Union Pearson Express 2.0 DRL Pape-St Andrew

Subway Modernization LRT Brampton Darlington Bruce Refurbishment Refurbishment Vaughn Subway 1.0

SUSTAINABILITY COST ($ BILLION PER UNIT OF SUSTAINABILITY) OF UNIT PER BILLION ($ COST SUSTAINABILITY EV-NGV Market Mississauga BRT Expansion

GTHA BRT (CNG Bus) DRL Don Mills 90 min Transfer Smart Track 0.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 SUSTAINABILITY POTENTIAL PER YEAR

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Chapter 7: Comments on a City-Led Approach to Sustainable Development

This thesis started with the intention to develop a methodology that could underpin sustainable development negotiations similar to UNCED (Rio – Rio+20) but led by cities. The proposed sustainability cost curves could accomplish much of this goal. Just as the curves, if developed and maintained in an open and professional manner, would encourage collective agreement (or at least awareness) in a targeted urban area, so too could they be aggregated across a sufficiently large collection of urban areas with the goal of a common approach to sustainability.

People, ideas, vision, finance, and energy – these come together in most cities. As social unrest and impacts from local and global ecosystem perturbations grow, cities obviously need to increase their resilience and adaptive capacity. However cities differ from countries and corporations in that their immobility forces them to develop ‘shelter in place’ coping mechanisms. These coping skills are likely to include more city-to-city partnerships (mutual support agreements); greater agitation in the national political discourse, e.g. Canada’s ‘big-six’ cities; publication of data and diagnostics; and greater adoption of multi-sector partnerships, e.g. WBCSD’s UII.

Strategic retreats may be necessary in some cities, e.g. Detroit’s 60 percent population decline, however all the Future Five cities presented in this thesis are very likely to have large urban populations in 2050 and 2100. They need help planning effective approaches to a century with much greater change than what they have experienced so far.

The cities (urban areas) assessed through this thesis are of sufficient large scale that each is acting as an independent complex system, as well as being part of broader regional, national and global urban system. Urban centers need to determine their own local priorities, but they also need to determine their contribution to global issues. They also need to better understand global trends and how the trends will be impacted by them. Ideally these metrics need to be sufficiently simple for lay people to understand choices available (while also conveying meaningful information).

A critical role of central banks is signaling their government’s long-range intentions and macroeconomic plans. Corporations, in particular, seek stability and certainty. The Future Five

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cities represent economies larger than many countries. As many as 30 cities are expected to join the ranks of those cities with five million or more residents by 2050. The world’s megacities (populations above 10 million) will increase from today’s 27 to 50 cities in 2050. This represents an enormous increase in real estate wealth as well as infrastructure needs. Signaling prioritization and location of this infrastructure will reduce corruption and increase efficiency while providing an important contribution to trust within and between cities.

In Diamond’s Collapse (2005) he illustrates how civilization on Easter Islands (among other areas) collapsed largely from capture into a ‘competitive spiral’. Arguably current global trends and geopolitical actions indicate much of humanity is now in a similar competitive spiral, at least to some degree. And this trend is likely to accelerate with China and India’s re-emergent role, and Sub Sahara’s impending entry, into the global economy (with corresponding material consumption and waste generation).

‘Distant threats’ to cities are increasingly less distant. Disruption in material supplies and energy, refugees, and pandemics can quickly impact any city, anywhere in the world.

Cities and their agents may be less interested in a ‘negotiated settlement’ and more keen on an ongoing process of shared purpose. All cities are charged with delivering maximum sustainability as exhibited through local quality of life and well-being.

A cooperative agreement among at least the world’s largest cities, as outlined in this thesis, could be sufficient to offset the especially debilitating aspects of a competitive spiral. Hopefully these cooperative agreements will be inclusive, rather than following international geopolitical agreements between countries, e.g. NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Cities will need to develop mechanisms to cooperate despite potential friction among their national counterparts. One of the best ways to do this will be to focus on the science and sustainability of cities, with the aspects of local service provision. Similar to how every city supplies waste management services, so too should every city provide a sustainability framework.

Cities need professional champions to provide independent observations on quality of life and service provision. ISO37120, and subsequent ISO37121 go a long way to provide this, however these initially are provided only for individual local governments and an aggregated city-region

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summary is not yet available (a pilot initiative is underway in Toronto). Also the values need to be applied against future infrastructure work to provide prioritization of sustainable development programming. Engineers and urban planners are well placed to collectively opine on city progress toward sustainable development.

By introducing a local ‘cooperative ascent’ along with a national competitive spiral, cities will better articulate the inherent inconsistencies with current economic systems. Human nature encourages formation of tribes, cliques and cultures (and countries) and these typically compete for resources and stature (Freud, 1930). However, with inter-connected economies, power grids, globally dispersed manufacturing, international finance, air traffic control, and linked health care systems, the world’s cities are increasingly dependent on shared networks. Unless these global networks are sufficiently resilient, cities are particularly vulnerable to network breakdowns. Even if these system breakdowns are rare their debilitation can be enormous. The most effective way to increase network resilience is to increase capacity (staff and citizenry), infrastructure strength and redundancy, and trust: trust between the community and service provider and within and across cities.

The science, and engineering, of cities needs to provide the foundation for high quality decision making (e.g. financial prioritization). By providing comprehensive ‘system diagnostics’ for every participating city (with verified professional input) the foundation for a cooperative approach is provided through the tools outlined in this thesis. The tools are designed to be applied initially with large cities – as these are likely the most important stratum within the world’s current (and growing) hierarchy of economic and eco-systems.

The methodology suggested in this thesis encourages the emergence of an ‘honest broker(s)’ for participating cities. The likelihood of this focal point(s) emerging is enhanced through: (i) ongoing provision of key information that builds on existing programs and benefits everyone (not necessarily linked to a specific project or agency); (ii) simplified data requirements (initial provision expected by recent graduates or international volunteers); (iii) publication of the sustainability baselines benefits participating cities in that ‘more sustainable’ projects emerge (e.g. preferred for ‘green bonds’); (vi) within five years the engineering community should routinely provide and use the information in infrastructure assessments; (v) an informal and

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loose network is envisaged (with little management or funding requirement); (vi) key data is mostly secondary, provided by other agencies, thereby enhancing their stature and reducing costs (and perceived competition); (vii) no new oversight agency proposed, therefore no ongoing funding requirements needed; (viii) methodology encourages duplication (non-exclusive) and is not subject to country or region capture as it is first applied to all cities over 10 million, then five million, and then as interest and support warrants, smaller cities; (ix) is fully consistent with large-scale global initiatives such as the SDGs; (x) as suggested by Ostrom (2012) the concept is seeded at a ‘grassroots level’ and takes full advantage of the power of hierarchies, and; (xi) takes advantage of the availability and enthusiasm of recent engineering graduates in all targeted cities.

The Value of Hierarchies – A Fable (from Meadows, 2008)

An analogy on the role of hierarchies is provided in Meadows (2008) Thinking in Systems: A Primer. When assessing global financial and ecological systems, the role of cities as critical intermediate forms is apparent.

“There once were two watchmakers, named Hora and Tempus. Both of them made fine watches, and they both had many customers. People dropped into their stores, and their phones rang constantly with new orders. Over the years, however, Hora prospered, while Tempus became poorer and poorer. That’s because Hora discovered the principle of hierarchy.

“The watches made by both Hora and Tempus consisted of about one thousand parts each. Tempus put his together in such a way that if he had one partly assembled and had to put it down—to answer the phone, say—it fell to pieces. When he came back to it, Tempus would have to start all over again. The more his customers phoned him, the harder it became for him to find enough uninterrupted time to finish a watch.

“Hora’s watches were no less complex than those of Tempus, but he put together stable subassemblies of about ten elements each. Then he put ten of these subassemblies together into a larger assembly; and ten of those assemblies constituted the whole watch. Whenever Hora had to put down a partly completed watch to answer the phone, he lost only a small part of his work. So he made his watches much faster and more efficiently than did Tempus.

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“Complex systems can evolve from simple systems only if there are stable intermediate forms. The resulting complex forms will naturally be hierarchic. That may explain why hierarchies are so common in the systems nature presents to us. Among all possible complex forms, hierarchies are the only ones that have had the time to evolve.”54

A ‘global agreement on sustainable development’ may be too large a task to undertake in its entirety. A strategic approach would encourage stability and sustainability within critical intermediate forms55. Working with cities to implement local sustainability, with a clear understanding on how efforts are linked globally, and how impacts move up and down the hierarchy of the world’s urban system, may be the fastest way to improve the overall system. By providing a specific target date for sustainable development (say, 2050) and starting with a sufficiently large number of significant cities (say, the 122 cities with populations of 5 million or more by 2050), a clear and measurable ‘fast-tracked’ path to sustainability is possible.

7.1 Shortcomings of the Approach

Many countries and cities – that eventually need to be part of any agreement will feel left out and may actively boycott the process. Countries, even if they have cities participating in the process may try to sabotage the process, and may ignore any possible agreement. Would Canada, for example, back an agreement entered into by just one of its cities?

Naim in The End of Power (2014) argues that ‘power’ (the ability to directly influence behavior) is dissipating – or dispersing – throughout the world. Large countries, corporations and agencies have less ability to determine outcomes. Arguably power is shifting to cities (from countries and corporations) but it now often takes the form of collaborative loosely-associated power. Therefore the initiative will likely need to succeed as an ‘organic’ approach (which implies slower start-up initially and much greater participation than just city councils or ministers of urban affairs).

54 From Meadows, Thinking in Systems: A Primer (2008), paraphrased from Herbert Simon, The Sciences of the Artificial (Cambridge MA: MIT Press, 1969). 55 This approach was championed in Elinor Ostrom’s Green from the Grassroots column of June 12, 2012 written as input to Rio+20. “Sustainability is now a prerequisite for all future development. City planners must look beyond municipal limits and analyze flows of resources – energy, food, water, and people – into and out of their cities”.

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At its roots this proposed negotiation will imply transfers of wealth. The cost curves will show why that transfer is in all participant’s best interest, and a transfer of wealth is not as critical as focusing locally generated future wealth, however this will not make it any easier for those required to pay relatively more in the short-term.

Transfer of funds and knowledge on the scale envisaged in this approach requires national support (and likely leadership). This is in no way guaranteed – national to urban fiscal transfers are not fully in-place today within the same country. Attempting it across countries is a formidable challenge.

The process proposes to involve the world’s larger cities (five million people or more in 2050). Cultures are different; it may not be possible to propose, leave alone maintain common values for things like gender equality, walkability, and ‘clean’ air across some 120 cities with such disparate cultures.

Cities are already dynamic complex systems; a global network of urban systems is several orders more complex. Possible events like widespread viruses or climate impacts may overwhelm any negotiated agreement.

Similar to the concept of biodiversity metrics in Chapter 5, major activities and trends that have varied impacts across systems are ascribed a local and global value. For simplicity this is now set at 50-50 (local-global). There may be a more dynamic and regionally specific value for each city. This will take time and effort to assess, and as a dynamic value may introduce instability into any ongoing negotiation process.

The city-scale (up to metro level) of this approach may be too large. ‘Communities’ or neighborhoods within cities may be a more appropriate scale for action. Work at the community level would then need to be aggregated upward to a metropolitan level.

The proposal places significant responsibility with the engineering profession. Civil engineers in particular need to be involved on an ongoing basis. The likely nexus of support would be through engineering faculties within participating cities. Mobilizing some 300 volunteer graduates to start the process is challenging and costly (see Annex 2). Financing, managing, and maintaining this ongoing support is a formidable challenge. In the cases where government representatives of the

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city would not join in the initiative this would add a level insecurity within participating engineering schools.

A significant challenge the approach will face is its ability to highlight the relative sustainability of projects across cities (and countries). As illustrated in Figure 6.10 a toll road in Dakar may have significantly lower sustainability cost than a similar toll road in, say Toronto. Project proponents in Toronto will likely criticize the overall findings and approach. Also the costs of land, expected financial rates of return, and local urban systems, are different across cities, therefore comparisons may not always be accurate.

Within individual cities (as well as across cities) many conflicting objectives are aggregated in order to prioritize investments. The World Bank, for example, may have a higher priority to invest in one city over another. Similarly, national governments may favor one city over another. Over time this proposed system would help prioritize long-lived urban infrastructure, however the process will face challenges to existing practices.

The system envisaged with expert peer input (similar to the World Bank’s annual Doing Business review) will take time to be established. Checks and balances need to be developed to prevent undue influence for some projects over others (outright or subtle). An initial trial start-up period will be needed for a few years.

7.2 Why Try?

The proposed cost curves and a negotiated agreement between cities that they could facilitate is unprecedented. The potential impact is enormous. The agreement may not be enforceable, however if negotiated and monitored in good faith, the trust it would engender may be sufficient upon which to base a global agreement on. By 2075 the world will be about 75 percent urban. The 500 largest cities will be home to more than half the world’s population and probably three- quarters of the global economy. If countries are not able to negotiate a ‘safe operating space’ for the impact (and access) of these cities and the global commons, a fundamental rift in the nation- state concept is likely. Continued success for cities, will at least require an implicit agreement similar to that proposed through these negotiations.

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Cities (except in the case of Singapore) do not support their own armies. Rather they empower countries to tax the urban economy so as to fund standing armies and enact fiscal (international) controls. So too, in most cases, are the legal and contractual underpinnings of societies overseen by countries. This is not likely to change during this century. Countries, however, will know the results of these negotiations and will be unlikely to dismiss them completely as large cities usually have a disproportionate influence on national economies.

By entering into these negotiations (or simply observing) participating cities are signaling that a parallel track to geopolitical negotiations warrants consideration. City cooperation undoubtedly has limits. Two formidable barriers to this plan exist: (i) getting a coordinated (metro) voice for each of the Future Five cities, and; (ii) introducing ‘surrogate negotiators’ for cities not able to field their own negotiators. Yet with professional associations such as the engineering community and urban planners, plus key international agencies like the GEF, a comprehensive ‘shadow agreement’ could be negotiated.

Even if this approach does not enable a global agreement on sustainable development, individual urban areas critically need the tool. Toronto, for example, has struggled for several decades to engender sufficient agreement to move forward with critical large-scale transportation infrastructure. Having an open, publicly understood, independently (and professionally) maintained baseline of sustainability is a valuable contribution for all cities (urban areas).

Few professions are given the honor to help the world at the scale envisaged in this thesis. The opportunity to launch a public service at a similar scale to the public health provisioning through potable water and wastewater treatment again presents itself to the engineering profession. Hopefully the profession will grasp the opportunity.

Engineers do not need to lead the negotiations or broker the agreement, however they are best placed to develop this new language of urban decision making. Evidence-based urban planning is critical. Engineers developing a new cost curve of sustainability will provide an invaluable service. The methodology is sufficiently simple and robust to be initially launched through volunteers and interns (mentor-supported), and later supported at individual cities by peer reviews (see Section 3.4.1).

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Cities are the most visceral, anchored level of government. Along with the military they are a country’s ‘doing-arm’. Cities usually try to exercise a politics of pragmatism – or delay if consensus not available, e.g. Toronto and transportation. Cities copy cities. Many cities for example have a Santiago Calatrava - like bridge. Or witness the speed at which Paris’ bike-share program was copied worldwide. This potential ‘speed of city pragmatism’ gives many urban practitioners optimism.

Proposed negotiations could enhance optimism and provide a durable methodology for sustainability efforts through the world’s cities. Efforts to enhance public trust in government should also follow this negotiation.

A recent MIT Sloan Management Review (Joining Forces: Collaboration and Leadership for Sustainability, 2015) outlines how the world’s corporations are concluding, “The path to success is travelled with others”. In 2012 the world’s 1,000 largest corporations generated $34 trillion in revenue (about one-third the global economy). Many of these corporations recognize the impetus to collaborate, examples abound: Wal-Mart’s support to the sustainability consortium; the Higgs Index for textiles and apparel; Forest Stewardship Council.

Similar to corporations, cities need tools to enhance collaboration and better articulate their needs and planned paths forward. Cities also need to work with trusted professional partners, e.g. engineers and planners.

“Give us ways to help the planet within our means, and we’ll embrace them.”56

Sustainability targets will vary by city and over time. A robust blend of accuracy, pragmatism, flexibility and consistency is needed to influence action at the community and personal level. The mechanism suggested in this thesis should enable targeted and effective impacts within participating cities.

7.3 Why Cities are Acting More like Countries

Generally a city is not a country and they exhibit unique local attributes (Appendix 7). However more cities are assuming greater international involvement. For example, in July 2009 Italy

56 Stephanie Orford, Metro News, Vancouver. Jan 19, 2015.

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hosted the annual G857 meeting. During that time cities were rising in stature, especially with regard to climate change activities. Cities and their representatives were planning a strong showing at the upcoming December, 2009 COP15 meeting in Copenhagen. Rome was a member of the C4058 but Milan was not. Milan was gearing up to host Expo 2015.

Letizia Moratti, mayor of Milan in 2009, proposed a parallel ‘C8’ meeting for cities along-side the G8 meeting (personal communication). She shared political parties with Prime Minister Berlusconi, and there was receptivity from several cities. The C8 meeting did not happen but the G8 meeting in Italy included city representatives, and served as a harbinger for the rise of the C40, and more active participation of cities at COP15. The event is indicative of cities searching for new and enhanced international roles.

Cities are particularly pragmatic in their involvement with international events such as UNFCCC’s Conference of the Parties or Rio-type UN-convened meetings. Cities are more likely to develop alternative approaches to meetings (with greater reliance on IT-supported telepresence) with more emphasis on programs of cooperation rather than ad hoc meetings that require a negotiated settlement. The ‘flavour’ of these international events is often dictated through large representations of staff from ministries of economy and environment, plus agencies like the UN and World Bank. This is somewhat foreign to cities and rather than acquiring a taste for these events, cities and their (direct) representatives are likely to develop new approaches.

57 The G8 started with an ad hoc meeting in France in 1975 as the ‘Group of Six’. The country grouping became the G7 when Canada, with the support of the US, was added in 1976. The G8 was formed 1998- 2014 with the addition of Russia. The G20, founded in 1999, replaced the G8 as the main country convening group at the Pittsburgh Summit Sept 25, 2009. Membership of the G20 was arbitrarily determined by Caio Koch-Weser (Germany) and Tim Geithner (US). G20 membership includes: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States, along with the European Union (EU). The EU is represented by the European Commission and by the European Central Bank. The IMF, World Bank, OECD and WTO attend G20 summits. 58 The C40 was formally launched in 2005, when representatives of 18 cities met at the behest of Mayor Livingston in London. Initially 5 cities started the concept. In 2006 the organization merged with the Clinton Climate Initiative. There are now 69 member cities in three categories; megacities, innovator and observer cities. Size of city varies considerably, and some of the original cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have shifted membership from megacities to observer.

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The World Economic Forum (WEF) is best known for its annual Davos meeting that brings together heads of state and corporate leaders. Each year global leaders discuss the world’s most pressing issues and often seek a collaborative path forward, although the events are more of a networking opportunity rather than negotiations. A key item each year is the annual global risk profile. The 2015 risk profile lists the following top ten global risks:

(i) Deepening income inequality; (iii) Persistent jobless growth; (iii) Lack of leadership; (iv) Rising geostrategic competition; (v) Weakening of representative democracy; (vi) Rising pollution in the developing world; (vii) Increasing occurrence of severe weather events; (viii) Intensifying nationalism; (ix) Increasing water stress; (x) Spread of infectious disease.

A risk assessment of the above ten items would quickly highlight the central role of cities in developing the identified risks, and often acting as first responders as the risks are manifest. A first line of defense as global risks grow is increased urban resilience. World leaders are beginning to realize this, however the scale of challenges facing cities necessitates greater involvement of city and community representatives.

About 2500 to 2700 people receive invitations to the January Davos meetings. About 15 percent of attendees are female. In 2013, 5 of the invitees were mayors (Calgary Herald, 01-20-2013 – Mayor Naheed Nenshi was Canada’s only mayor to attend). In 2014, 8 of the attendees were mayors (from attendance list as of 20 Jan, 2014). The limited involvement of city-representatives at meetings such as WEF Davos suggest the likely emergence of parallel and alternative forums for city-representatives to interact (and strengthening of existing opportunities).

In large social transformations cities provide the forum or venue to facilitate that change. For example Tahrir Square, Cairo and the Mall in Washington DC. With technology, cities also amplify social movements. For example, in 2008, Oscar Morales a recent Civil Engineer graduate in Colombia created a Facebook page calling for “One Million Voices against FARC.” FARC operating as a guerilla faction against the Colombian government since 1964 had taken 700 people hostage in late 2007. Morales captured people’s frustration and disillusionment with FARC’s actions in calling for an end to the violence. More than a million people marched

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peacefully in Bogota and around the world on February 4th, 2008. Hostages were released and FARC’s operations declined and a peace treaty is now being negotiated59.

As social tensions and climate related events increase in burgeoning cities the number of disasters and unrest will grow. Cities will be forced to respond, stretching already thin resources. New tools and methods to enhance local stability and long-term sustainability will emerge. These initiatives may differ from national (and regional) governments as cities are likely to develop more collaborative and comprehensive approaches, however with more than 100 cities participating any potential agreement as outlined in this thesis would have significant geopolitical implications.

7.4 Next Steps in a Cities Approach to Sustainability

The task proposed in this thesis – implement an ongoing process to assist cities move toward sustainable development – is enormous. Many agencies and city representatives need to be involved. Following is a partial list of a few key next steps.

In the last five to 10 years powerful new metrics for complex aspects of sustainability have been developed. Generally these are mostly applied to countries, however the methodology is usually sufficiently robust to enable application to cities, at least large metro cities. The Environmental Performance Index (Yale University) is a good example. This tool, now published annually in collaboration with WEF and support from the Toronto-based Samuel Family Foundation should include the Future Five cities. Similarly, the University of Notre Dame’s Global (national) Adaptation Index should be adjusted to include the Future Five cities.

These two indices can form the basis to develop a metro-city ‘Resilience Index’ sufficiently robust to facilitate catastrophic insurance premium adjustments. This could be integrated with the ISO37121 resilience index now under development.

The WEF should be invited to include an annex in the annual Global Competiveness Report ranking the Future Five cities for competiveness, perhaps starting with the 27 megacities. The

59 From D. Burstein, Innovation Agents: Oscar Morales and One Million Voices Against FARC. Fast Company May 21, 2012.

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World Bank (IFC) could also be invited to include assessments of the Future Fives in the annual ‘Doing Business’ Report (country competiveness).

WWF should be asked and supported to develop a ‘biodiversity index’ for at least the Future Fives. This index should follow the broad approach by WBCSD-WRI’s initial efforts at developing a GHG emissions inventory for corporations, i.e. use of Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions to account for vicarious impacts of city residents, while ensuring consistency between local and national inventories, i.e. no ‘double counting’.

Agencies and academics working with cities and the engineering profession should encourage all local governments within the Future Five urban conurbations (about 3500 local governments) to collect and annually publish ISO 37120 city indicators (ideally independently audited). These metrics should be aggregated and published by (metro) city.

Material flow assessments (urban metabolism) for all Future Five cities should be prepared (every one to two years) – key agencies should include ISIE and WRI (possibly WBCSD). Material projection estimates (to 2050) for all Future Five cities should include at least energy, solid waste, water and food. These should be updated regularly as new data emerges. The World Resources Institute and UNEP should lead this work. ISIE could make available a special edition of the Journal of Industrial Ecology. WFEO should participate.

Efforts by lead agencies should combine WBCSD’s UII, Cities Alliance City Development Strategy, ICLEI’s Local Agenda 21, among others, to develop a common platform for ‘sustainability plans’ consistent with the hierarchy of sustainable cities. These sustainability plans should have at least a 35-year planning horizon; should be updated at least every five years; should ideally use common metrics; and be publicly developed and vetted (for all Future Five cities). This effort could be led by GEF with support from OECD, World Bank, UN agencies, WEF and WBCSD. Cities themselves (as urban groupings) should lead the preparation.

Each Future Five city should have a physical and socio-economic boundaries assessment completed annually (Chapter 5). From those boundary assessments each Future Five city should have sustainability cost curves prepared annually for the transportation and connectivity, energy,

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basic services sector, plus a combined curve (Chapter 6). Local engineering schools and targeted graduate volunteers could lead preparation of both.

IFIs, NGOs, and international agencies should recognize published sustainability plans60 and if major supported activities (anything in excess of $5 million or requiring more than 500 local government employee days) are not included in the sustainability plans and sustainability cost curves, a public statement should be issued outlining the criticality of the activity (including GEF website among others).

Three to five Future Five cities should designate themselves (more is better) as ‘teaching cities’, similar to teaching hospitals but with broader scope, to serve as research and teaching centers for all Future Five cities, and other cities (critical focus on data collection, management, communications, governance, technological advances). The cities could emerge as the regional hubs, similar to the WANO (World Association of Nuclear Operators) management structure (see Section 3.4.1).

The World Federation of Engineering Organizations and affiliates such as ASCE and CSCE should encourage engineering schools in Future Five cities (among others) to participate in preparation of city boundaries assessments and sustainability cost curves. All major projects (in excess of $10 million capital, and/or $1 million annual operating costs) in Future Five cities should be subject to comprehensive sustainability assessment, i.e. placement in the sector’s sustainability cost curve. FDIC should recommend this for (at least) all Future Five based contracts.

Within five years all Future Five cities should have the full complement of sustainability tools on an open access website(s) (i.e. ongoing publication of city boundaries, sustainability cost curves, and hierarchies of urban management). Sustainability negotiations between the Future Five cities should be planned for no later than 2020 (the plan forward could be launched at Habitat III in 2016).

60 Each Future Five city should prepare a collective (metro-wide) Hierarchy of Sustainability (assistance could be provided by GEF, local engineering and planning schools).

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WANO should be approached on behalf of the Future Fives to provide advisory support to establish a similar organization for the Future Fives. So too, city-based peer-to-peer support programs such as those supported by ASCE in the US.

Starting with (at least) government and employee pension agencies (e.g. OMERS, Ontario Teachers, California Public Employees, World Bank and UN) by 2018 all financed civil works (urban infrastructure) should be required to have a simple ‘Factor of Sustainability’ calculated.

Table 7.1: Strengths and Weaknesses of a Cities Approach to Sustainable Development

Strengths Weaknesses Based on material flows and ecosystem impacts Requires an iterative approach (and at-times (science and engineering approach to underpin arbitrary) on what cities to include and on what political and geopolitical processes) cities to include in the metro area, i.e. often no consensus on constituent make-up of metropolitan areas Metropolitan approach – cities as systems Initial physical and socio-economic boundaries (Chapter 5) require a degree of subjectivity Inclusive approach involving all cities, limits Current sustainability assessment methodology debate on ‘who’s in, who’s not’ provides a high value for number of users, therefore infrastructure servicing large populations will have an inherently higher factor of sustainability Five million population (at 2050) provides a Heavy reliance on engineering profession meaningful number of participants (about 122) envisaged Futures approach – adding 22 cities to the Initially starts only with the largest cities (over 5 current 100 – ensures a sufficient focus on million). Therefore some 80 percent of global rapidly growing cities and regions population initially excluded Building on the ‘boundaries approach’ by Optimizes sustainability for participating cities Rockstrom et al (2009, updated by Steffen et el, – may be at odds with national priorities 2015) and Sustainable Development Goals (nee MDGs) provides an easily communicated starting point for cities (locally relevant as well as globally pertinent) Provides a common platform to enable By making infrastructure planning process more international agencies to participate and quickly public, vested interests may be threatened adapt existing metrics and programs to cities (metro areas)

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Chapter 8: Conclusions and Path Forward

8.1 Research Contributions, Significant Findings

This thesis provides a cities perspective to sustainability and sustainable development. Sustainable development is mostly a political objective that gained widespread prominence post 1987 and the release of Our Common Future. Negotiations for sustainable development (greater inclusion and wealth, along with environmental safeguards) are typically between countries, either through consensus, e.g. WTO, UNFCCC, UNCED (Rio and Rio+20), and the Montreal Protocol, or bi-lateral, e.g. the 2014 China-US agreement on GHG emissions limits and the 1909 Canada-US Boundary Water Treaty. Sustainable development often manifests as a negotiated agreement. Cities (i.e. urban communities) have delegated much of this process to national government representatives.

Sustainability is largely a systems approach to the key underpinnings of human society; the health and resilience of critical ecosystems, trends in material flows, enhancing social harmony and connectivity as contributors to well-being and economy. Sustainability is typically a collaborative and inclusive process. Cities, as the most representative level of government, will lead much of the process toward sustainability. The impact of cities is the most important input to sustainable development, and the response of cities to any negotiated agreement will determine the final outcome.

This thesis proposes an integrated place-based approach to sustainability and sustainable development. Political considerations are of course included but a cities approach fosters more of a systems analysis with a greater focus on metabolic flows and ecosystems and societal boundaries. A systems focus facilitates codification and monitoring of progress toward agreed-to targets. When developed and communicated in partnership with participating communities genuine progress is possible.

This approach with credible open-source, locally-specific metrics has sufficient scientific underpinning to serve as a foundation for more nuanced subjective aspects of the political process. To bring about this negotiated (urban) settlement the thesis proposes roles and responsibilities for key institutions: WBCSD, WEF, IUCN, World Bank Group, other IFIs, GEF, WFEO, OECD and several organizations within the UN.

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In order to assess future infrastructure requirements and corresponding sustainability impacts, city size (population and economy for the urban agglomeration) needs to be estimated. Accordingly this thesis provides initial estimates of the world’s largest cities this century. The concept of the ‘Future Fives’ is introduced – those cities expected to have 5 million or more people resident by 2050.

By estimating urban population and economy, credible projections emerge. Provision of a ‘peak waste’ estimate is a case-in-point for the methodology. The approach could be readily applied to other material flows, e.g. food, water, and energy. The thesis introduces a new website ‘Sustainability Today’ at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology that can present this information as it emerges.

This thesis introduces and applies two key urban tools: (i) a cities approach to physical and socio-economic boundaries, and (ii) sustainability cost curves for long-lived urban infrastructure. These two tools are underpinned by adherence to a hierarchy of urban management (Chapter 4).

The hierarchy of urban management (sustainable cities) is introduced elsewhere, e.g. Hoornweg and Freire (2013). The concept is further elaborated here and suggestions made for existing and new institutional support. How the hierarchy varies from a national or local government perspective is also discussed. The hierarchy underpins follow-on city activities and enables quick understanding of a city’s key priorities, and ongoing progress in enhancing sustainability.

A new tool is introduced through this research: A cities approach to physical and socio-economic boundaries. The ‘city boundaries tool’ applies Rockstrom et al (2009) ‘safe operating space’ (physical boundaries) and the forthcoming sustainable development goals (extended from MDGs) from a cities perspective. The tool is applied to Dakar, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Shanghai and Toronto. None of the five cities could be defined as sustainable today although priorities for sustainable development are readily apparent for individual cities as well as collectively. This process could be expanded and replicated for all Future Five cities (and others).

A second new tool – sustainability cost curves – is introduced through this research. Sustainability cost curves enable assessment of key infrastructure within and across cities (urban agglomerations) from a sustainable development perspective. Cost curves are proposed for the

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basic services, energy, and transportation sectors. The methodology is applied to Dakar, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Shanghai and Toronto as proof of concept. Consistent with other initiatives, e.g. WBCSD’s ‘Vision 2050’, the target date of 2050 is used to assess proposed long-lived urban infrastructure.

With these tools an argument is made that when applied credibly, comprehensively and continuously to the Future Five cities, sustainability can be sufficiently well-defined and monitored. This information could be used to facilitate global negotiation of sustainable development for these cities, which in turn could underpin a broader global sustainable development agreement.

The tools proposed are fully consistent with the engineering profession’s current suite of diagnostics, as well as urban planners and infrastructure finance approaches that are typically defined through the master planning process. A call is made for the engineering profession to take a more active role in highlighting the link between long-lived urban infrastructure and sustainability and the need to make better use of publicly understood and vetted metrics of sustainable development for all major infrastructure – starting with municipal infrastructure costing more than $25 million (capital and/or amortized to 2050) in the world’s largest cities (those expected to have more than 5 million residents by 2050).

Sustainability and sustainable development is a laudable objective, however attaining this goal is significantly more difficult if it cannot readily be defined at a city level and progress toward the goal publicly communicated. A plan forward is presented that describes roles and responsibilities for key agencies, as well as data collection and management by the engineering profession, and others.

A significant finding of this research is validation and greater specificity on how cities are likely to grow for the rest of this century. Predicting the future is notoriously difficult, however in the absence of better predictions what is presented in this thesis should serve as a credible starting point for required planning horizons. Engineers (among others) need to integrate growth assumptions into today’s common factors of safety, and proposed factors of sustainability.

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8.2 Summary and Recommendations

During the last 200 years a fundamental and transformative shift in wealth and influence occurred. In 1800 China and India were the world’s top two economies and global per capita GDP was about $200; average life expectancy was 40 years. Today that has rocketed to more than $6500 per person (a global total of about $45 trillion). Total wealth today according to Credit Suisse is $117 trillion (about $56,000 for each adult on earth). Life expectancy is now greater than 78 years (Chapter 4).

This break-neck pace of city-growth and wealth creation continues. Total global wealth will likely double again by 2050 with most of the growth driven by East and South Asia, and then more than double again as Sub Sahara Africa drives much of the world’s wealth increase in the second half of this century. This unprecedented wealth creation occurred, and is likely to continue to occur in lock-step with resource consumption, urbanization, and associated ecosystem degradation. Cities are the key actors in this development.

City populations are growing fast: in 2011 there were about 100 cities with populations of more than 5 million (with a combined population of 973 million). By 2050 this will increase to about 120 cities with populations of more than 5 million (with a combined population of 1.368 billion). The influence of cities (as urban agglomerations), relative to corporations and countries, is likely to continue to grow as climate perturbations increase and global inter-connectedness grows.

By the end of this century (only 85 years away, which is a prudent design time-frame for large scale civil works) engineers should be planning for at least 9 billion urban residents and a per capita GDP of $40,000. With current trajectories this would be about a ten-fold increase in cumulative planetary ecosystem impact, and we are already beyond several safe-operating boundaries.

Most of humanity’s wealth is located within cities. Major infrastructure, such as roads, buildings, ports, and energy generation, is either located in, or serves cities. Cities will need to develop more robust shelter in place strategies, both for preservation of human safety and well-being, and also as protection of costly infrastructure. Cities need to better protect continued delivery of their key services – provision of a nurturing local operating space for economy and social interaction.

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The sustainable development goals (SDGs), expected to be adopted by the world’s countries later this year (after years of negotiations) and preceded by the millennium development goals, are largely a suite of targets for human well-being. Cities are key in the delivery of these objectives, e.g. water and sanitation, economic growth, transportation, and energy. Most of the initiatives envisaged in the SDGs will be carried out in urban areas.

A cities approach to physical and socio-economic boundaries (Chapter 5) enables apportionment of the SDGs at an individual city-scale. These efforts could be aggregate regionally, nationally and globally. The methodology also helps city planners, and citizens, better understand through sustainability cost curves how key infrastructure underpins the attainment of objectives such as the SDGs.

In the same way that the cities approach to physical and socio-economic boundaries down-scales the SDGs for cities, the methodology also enables global ecosystem perturbations such as climate change and biodiversity, to be presented at a more understandable (and actionable) city- scale. Through the open data methodology and peer-reviewed iterative use of indices, such as city resilience and biodiversity impact, a city’s relative position with regard to physical boundaries can be communicated, and arguably moved to greater sustainability.

The cities approach to physical and socio-economic boundaries can also serve as a powerful catalyst to encourage common approaches in targeted cities by external agencies. The methodology for all intents and purposes provides an ongoing progress report on a city’s ‘Agenda 21’ or ‘city development strategy’. The overall baseline information would be provided as a common sustainability baseline regardless of funding availability for specific activities or shifting agency priorities.

Each city will be impacted by manifesting risks differently. Climate change, sea level rise, terrorist acts, food and water security, are examples of rapidly evolving trends expected to impact cities. Each city needs to develop a customizable sustainability plan that encourages optimum development of key infrastructure.

Even if this methodology (city-scale boundaries and sustainability cost curves) is adopted only by a few cities (making cross comparisons difficult) major benefits would still accrue. Toronto

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urban region, for example, would benefit from knowing the relative sustainability potential of various transportation options. The methodology is also sufficiently robust and open source that projects with higher sustainability potential and lower sustainability costs would be more apparent and attractive to preferential financing, e.g. ‘green bonds’.

As sustainability cost curves need to reflect estimated costs (capital and up to 35 years of operating), benefits, and impacts of the 14 boundary sectors (with 44 unique metrics) they contain a relatively high degree of uncertainty. However all data estimates are publicly available and additional iterations are relatively straightforward. The cost curves developed in this thesis used free ‘off-the-shelf’ software. The data used is also fully consistent with a common environmental or technical assessment. Annual updates are anticipated. Therefore with subsequent iterations and refinements by project planners (especially on the cost estimates) sustainability cost curves will increase in accuracy over time. To start the process (as presented in this thesis) sustainability potential estimates are within an order of magnitude and where reliable data are available likely within a range of 30 percent.

Engineers, city planners, politicians and corporations need to view (and encourage) cities as systems. Material flows (e.g. food, building materials and energy) need to be tracked for cities. Local and aggregate ecosystem impacts need to be known and reduced to levels that can be continuously supported by planetary systems. Engineers in each of the world’s largest cities (as a start) should provide this information on an ongoing basis – probably through local academic institutions, local governments and global programs such as Engineers Without Borders.

8.3 Possible Roles and Responsibilities

In 1848 the British Parliament enacted the Public Health Act mandating enhanced public safety through waste collection. The Law was further refined in 1875 when responsibility was given solely to local government (Chapter 2). In cities around the world, local governments and civil engineers, along with others, partnered to provide safe and clean environments upon which much of the world’s wealth was built. A similar inflection point now exists where cities must be called upon to define, design and deliver community operating systems that nurture public well-being and serve as the foundation for sustained development.

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Mayors, councilors, city administrators, their assigned and retained staff, advisors, and the public (current and future residents and people affected outside the city), need to work toward common, yet differentiated, and clearly measurable objectives. Cities and their agencies should start providing sustainability estimates for themselves writ large, and for major proposed infrastructure.

This thesis highlights that the bulk of unsustainable development is associated with the lifestyles of city residents and the design and management of cities. Sustainable cities are likely the most effective route toward sustainability. Civil engineers, as key agents in designing and managing cities, therefore play an important role and bear significant responsibility. The profession should provide clear guidance on how proposed civil works (long-lived urban infrastructure) contributes to (or detracts from) sustainable development. These metrics need to be relevant and comparable across cities (starting with at least the world’s largest urban conurbations). This thesis provides one possible suite of sustainability metrics for cities as urban systems.

International agencies like the United Nations, World Bank, IMF, ISO, WTO, OECD and GEF; national aid agencies like DFID and CIDA; multi-national corporations; and academia – should all try for better integration and coordination in cities, especially those in low- and middle- income countries. This is a perennial problem (Ruckelshaus, 1989), and is getting worse as agencies deal more directly with cities. Each Future Five city should have a simple ‘Wikipedia- like’ webpage that lists all major activities by international agencies and corporations.

All local governments within Future Five cities should regularly publish urban metrics consistent with ISO 37120 standard definitions. Agencies working with these cities should maximize use and maintenance of these indicators.

Almost every power plant in the world has assigned licensed power engineers onsite. The University of Toronto alone, with its modest power plant and ancillary equipment, has some 70 power engineers on staff (Canada has more than 25,000). This thesis recommends that beginning with all Future Five cities every city (urban area) should employ one ‘sustainability baseline’ engineer (or contract the service). The engineer’s role would be to provide (annually): (i) a ‘best guess’ consensus on the defined urban area (borders and population); (ii) report progress on local collection of ISO community indicators (or equivalent); (iii) the city-scale physical and socio-

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economic boundaries; (iv) key material and energy flows; (v) sustainability cost curves for the 25-50 largest urban infrastructure projects. For the first five years of the project guidance would be provided from local universities, the World Federation of Engineering Organizations, city engineers, and corporate partners. Volunteers from programs such as Engineers Without Borders could seed the initial program in all Future Five cities (about 120). A long-term peer-to-peer partnership similar to WANO is also envisaged.

8.4 Future Research and Actions

The American Association for the Advancement of Science Presidential Addresses by Phillip Sharp (Meeting global challenges: Discovery and innovation through convergence, 2014) and John Holdren (Science and Technology for Sustainable Well-Being, 2008), provide practical and comprehensive suggestions on how to better integrate the science and engineering communities and foster well-being and sustainability.

Holdren (2008) lays out five areas where science and technology can help in delivering sustainable well-being: (i) reducing global mortality; (ii) delivering the MDGs (and subsequent SDGs); (iii) water supply; (iv) energy supply; (v) earth’s climate. Holdren calls for scientists and engineers to “tithe” ten percent of their professional time and effort: “the acceleration of progress toward sustainable well-being for all Earth’s inhabitants would surprise us all.” A locus of action for all of these efforts is the city.

Sharp (2014) building on Holdren’s assessment of science and technology for well-being argues that the next step of discovery and innovation will be through integration of biology, physics, engineering and social science. In order to accommodate the expected 9 billion inhabitants mid- century Sharp calls on the next revolution: convergence. Cities will both drive and benefit from this convergence. This is consistent with Anne-Marie Slaughter’s call in The Atlantic (Nov, 2011) for a third form of collaborative power to compliment ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ power (or resource and relationship power). This collaborative power and convergence will be most apparent in (large) cities. Civil engineers need to be an integral part of this emerging collaborative power.

The next 35 years will see unprecedented change, most of it driven by growth in cities of Asia and Africa, plus reconstruction and adaptation in existing cities. How to better prioritize, finance

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and plan the large-scale long-lived infrastructure associated with these burgeoning cities is an important ongoing research area. This research needs to be multi-sector and as much as possible anchored in the fast-growing cities of low- and middle-income countries. Broad research partnerships should be developed across institutions in the Future Five cities (and elsewhere).

As urban Toronto strengthens international links within the ‘Future Five’ cities, strong ties are also necessary between Toronto and Canada’s other larger cities, e.g. Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa, Calgary, and Edmonton. Also, and arguably most important, the links between local governments within urban Toronto need to be strengthened. Urban Toronto is one of the most resilient large cities in the world. This relative resilience will become increasingly important, and require much greater efforts to safeguard. Urban Toronto has the unique ability to better safeguard its relatively high quality of life, while providing assistance to other cities across the world.

The following organizations should support the initiative in the following manner. World Bank and all IFIs (ensure that all investment projects in Future Five cities are delineated in a recent sustainability cost curve – encourage ‘green bonds’ for activities with greater sustainability potential); GEF (ensure that any city, urban area, being supported through the Sustainability City integrated action platform, prepares city-scale physical and socio-economic boundaries and sustainability cost curves); WWF (support development of a city-based biodiversity index); Notre Dame – Resilience Index (include the Future Five cities in annual resilience index); Yale Environmental Performance Index (with WEF support) - include the Future Five cities in annual environmental performance index; UNEP (provide ongoing oversight to the material flow estimates of Future Five cities); UN-Habitat (provide ongoing oversight to the city estimates on progress along the hierarchy of sustainable cities); Cities Alliance and ICLEI (ensure consistency with city development strategies and ‘Local Agenda 21s’ for all Future Five cities); WRI (prepare annual reports, or every two-years, on material flows (Scopes 1, 2 and 3) of all Future Five cities – estimates values where locally specific indicators unavailable); WFEO (support the global roll-out of baseline sustainability engineers in at least all of the Future Five cities).

The nascent ‘Sustainability Today’ website at UOIT needs to be buttressed (and duplicated) to enable ongoing data compilation and similar functions of the Iowa Electronics Market. Each

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Future Five city should have a common website (maybe on Wikipedia as well). WCCD and Citymayors.com might be receptive hosts for some of the activities. Each engineering school should support this initiative in principle. Within five years the engineering profession should make available a global database (similar to the annex of many engineering text books) on key sustainability baseline indicators for the world’s larger cities. This initiative should start for urban (metro) areas, similar to the Kennedy et al efforts with the world’s 27 megacities. Lessons from this work should be iterated to the next group of cities (those with populations of 5 million or more).

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Afterword – The Buenos Aires Accord

One of the best parts of working at the World Bank is the fascinating discussions over dinner with colleagues while working in different countries around the world. The ‘Buenos Aires Accord’ was debated at several dinners with my close colleagues Horacio and Roberto, and agreed to in Buenos Aires.

Both Horacio and Roberto are Argentine, but they humored their gringo friend by starting some of these dinners before their accustomed 11:30 pm start. The food was fabulous and the accompanying Malbecs perfect.

As individuals we are all flawed in some way. Some worry that our body parts are too big or too small, our skin too light or dark, some worry that we are not smart enough, or good looking enough, or that we need more money, more love, more freedom. Our baser instincts may win and we may fear, and then hate, those that are not like us. We may come from broken homes and marriages. We may have commitment issues. Being human usually means being awash in frailties and insecurities. For most of us, our lifestyles are not as sustainable as we would like. And yet being human, we also can soar and sing, and with enough practice, even do the tango.

Argentina is a paradox. Early in the 20th Century Argentina was one of the world’s top 10 wealthiest countries; its per capita income was ahead of Australia and Canada. Today Argentina’s debt defaults are well known, inflation is rampant, and the country struggles with a century of economic shambles. Blame flows freely. No country has more opportunity or more regrets. We all cry for Argentina.

Argentina has only one heart and that is Buenos Aires (BA). The city generates more than 85 percent of the country’s economy and is home to almost half the population61. BA is also one of the world’s most beautiful cities. With grand avenues, tasteful architecture and a welcoming climate, the ‘Paris of the Americas’ does many things right. As goes BA, so goes Argentina.

61 The Buenos Aires urban area with more than 13 million residents is made up of the city (local government, some 4 million people) and the surrounding province of Buenos Aires.

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The city is also flawed. Wastewater treatment, traffic and transit, security; the challenges are severe. At the time of our dinner we were visiting to help with solid waste management. The latest economic crises had pushed seven out 10 children into poverty and resulted in more than 100,000 carteneros (waste pickers) most of whom were female. Waste disposal was particularly challenging as the city and province argued over landfill locations, and the national government prioritized communities outside the Capital.

Horacio, Roberto and I were mostly in an ebullient mood despite our surroundings, but we were certainly not oblivious to local conditions. Horacio was about to become a father, Roberto was wondering if it was time to commit, and I had recently met my wife. The three of us, recognizing our good fortune, wanted to commit to try to keep our treasures, while acknowledging to do so, we had to share our wealth.

The Buenos Aires Accord may have had its origins in our discussion of querencia. Querencia was the one Spanish word I knew having read it before in Barry Lopez (1992) The Rediscovery of North America. Querencia is a difficult word to translate, meaning ‘home plus more;’ the place where we feel most rooted62. It also describes the place in the ring where the bull goes to gather strength. We were talking about setting up a ‘querencia cortado;63’ a friendly time-share of our favorite places: Horacio’s retreat in Patagonia, Roberto’s apartment in Buenos Aires, and my cabin on the Canadian Shield. We had friends with their own querencias in Paris, South Africa, Sweden and the Shenandoah. In short order we could visit much of the world, and share a few magical places.

We knew that it was our love of place, and the loves we had in our lives that gave us strength. So too did our careers. We agreed that despite our frailties and insecurities we would do our best to help wherever we might find ourselves. Our Buenos Aires Accord acknowledged the power of love and hope, and the power of place.

The next 35 years will likely be the most intense in human history. Everyone will be challenged by events. When assailed by the gales of circumstance we will need to be anchored, rooted to our

62 Querencia is similar to aloha aina, or ‘love of the land,’ in ancient Hawaiian thought. 63 Cortado is Spanish for cut, and also the perfect way to order an espresso (with a small amount of steamed milk).

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own querencias. This thesis argues that the most effective place to make this stand is in our cities. This thesis also argues that we have the tools today we need in order to build sustainability. Sustainable development is not only possible, it is imperative.

With our professions, me as an engineer, others as planners, communicators, doctors, teachers, masons, drivers, electricians, chefs, etc., we are a powerful team. And when our cities band together they are a powerful force. Flaws and frailties are not about to disappear in the next 35 years. In fact they will likely be even more apparent as events progress. However, we still need to agree, together, to make a stand and make a difference.

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Appendix 1: Searching for Sustainability. Personal Vignettes of Sustainable Development

Slightly unorthodox, the following Searching for Sustainability provides several subjective ‘snapshots’ of sustainable development based on almost 30 years of experience in infrastructure development and urban services delivery. Following receipt of the special-order Our Common Future from the Guelph Bookshelf Café in 1987 the author has tried to determine how best to implement the tenets of sustainable development, with sporadic impact: Some progress, but mostly frustration and far too modest achievements.

Development, and therefore by extension, sustainable development, is about people. What people do to themselves, to other people, and to the environment, determines economies and now with the emergence of the Anthropocene, ecosystems. The potential harm that humans can wreak upon the planet is likely less than half manifest so far. Much more damage this century should be anticipated. Around 2100 hopefully, with waning numbers of people, and less impact per person, resilient ecosystems will mend and a sustainable human-scale planetary partnership will emerge.

That partnership, at its roots, will be made up of personal relationships between people and the planet’s ecosystems. In a world approaching 10 billion people, the opinions and actions of just one person seem meaningless. Yet, when looking out over the massive Laogang Landfill in Shanghai or Keele Valley Landfill in Toronto (closed), or when descending more than a kilometer-and-a-half below the surface at Red Lake goldmine, all this wealth and waste is, at its roots, driven by individuals. Each and every person is on a journey toward, or away from, sustainable development.

One of the things that got me thinking most about sustainability is the Brundtland Commission’s report Our Common Future published in 1987. I had read about the report in some newspaper or magazine and special ordered a copy from Guelph’s Bookshelf Café (there was no Amazon, or internet, then). The book did a great job of advocating the term sustainable development that was effectively introduced in the IUCN’s 1980 World Conservation Strategy. Our Common Future convinced me of the merits and need for sustainable development. There in one easy to read report was a cogent argument admonishing us to figure out how to get along with each other and with the planet.

Right around the time of reading Our Common Future, I gave my first public talk. The talk – more of a discussion – was with Guelph’s University Women’s Club at the house of their President, Brenda Elliot. As I had just joined the City as Waste Management Coordinator I gave my pitch on why recycling was important and how using Blue Boxes would be a great first step to help the environment. The University Women’s Club, along with the local ‘Public Interest Research Group’ (a member of the loosely knit collection of PIRGs started by Ralph Nader), was agitated about the City’s plans to build a waste incinerator adjacent to the University of Guelph.

Brenda, the staff at the Ontario-PIRG, and I hit it off well. Yes, I represented the City’s efforts to build an incinerator in their backyard, but my bosses and City Council saw my job as first and foremost to divert waste from needing to be landfilled or incinerated. Guelph was one of the few

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cities in Canada that had full control over collection and disposal of its waste64, and therefore had a direct financial interest to reduce the amount of waste needing to be disposed. The more waste diverted, the longer the landfill would last.

City residents took to the call ‘reduce, reuse and recycle’ with vigor. The Blue Box diversion program exceeded everyone’s expectations and residents quickly looked for more comprehensive approaches. We studied the idea to launch Canada’s first Wet/Dry waste diversion program (my Master’s Thesis). A park was even established to recognize the size of forested area saved in the first year of the program (in theory) by recycling paper: Preservation Park, a 27 hectare forest in the City’s south end. The area was twinned with the purchase, on ‘behalf of the children of Guelph’, of Monteverdi Rain Forest in Costa Rica. This was the time of the first big debt-for- nature swaps. A commemorative plaque at the entrance to Preservation Park has a short note on how the City’s recycling program contributed to sustainable development and is emblazoned with “Think Globally, Act Locally”.

One of the better coincidences of my career was winding up in Costa Rica some ten years later trying to suggest a few waste management improvements in Porto Limon and San Jose. And then ten years or so after that, working with a wonderful woman who grew up chasing butterflies in Monteverdi and fighting to protect the Country’s turtles. If you work long enough with colleagues like Julianne-the-turtle-champion, and visit enough parts of the world, you realize that ‘think globally, act locally’, is not enough. UOIT’s motto Cogitando et Agendo, Ducemus – ‘By thinking and doing we shall lead’ seems more fitting. And thinking and doing are urgently needed everywhere, especially in cities.

From the start of Guelph’s recycling program many citizens asked how they could do more to help the environment; ‘recycling is easy what’s next?’ So instead of just encouraging people to use recycled-content paper and low-flow showerheads that were often hard to find, Brenda Elliot and I started in 1987 ‘For Earth’s Sake’, North America’s first retail store to sell exclusively environmentally friendlier products. We even tried to develop a comprehensive impact rating system, giving impact ratings from ‘cradle to grave’ for the products we sold. We invited comments from our customers: we got two.

Challenges to the concept of the store quickly emerged. For example one of our customers, more knowledgeable than us, pointed out that the ground covers we were selling as alternatives to lawns, contained purple loosestrife, a noxious alien species. And selling stuff to help the environment can only go so far. The products made in developing countries that we sourced through Ten Thousand Villages, and foodstuffs from Fair Trade made sense. So too kits to adopt a whale or buy an acre of rain forest. Books worked well, and (sort-of) children’s plush ‘endangered animals’ where part of the proceeds went to help protect the threatened animal’s habitat. But selling for sustainability is a challenge, the rent needed to be paid, and I got a job as Waste Manager in Bermuda. Brenda went on to run for politics. She won and immediately became Minister of the Environment for the Province of Ontario. For Earth’s Sake was sold at a loss and the two of us went on to search for sustainability elsewhere.

64 The City of Guelph was the sole owner and operator of the Eastview Road Landfill located within City- limits.

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A highlight of my career was sitting down one afternoon with A. J. Casson, the then last surviving member of the Group of Seven artists. I had approached Mr. Casson to write a letter of encouragement for Guelph’s citizens to recycle. Mr. Casson had spent part of his youth in Guelph and had just announced his support to the North Channel Preservation Society as they tried to stop silica mining in the La Cloche hills near Killarney Park (100 km south-west of Sudbury). The high quality silica was sought for glass manufacturing. So ‘why not promote recycling instead’ I thought.

Mr. Casson is one of the few people I ever met who did not see sustainable development through shades of grey. We sat in his beautiful home on Rochester Avenue in Toronto. I didn’t know it at the time but I took deep comfort in his certainty, which was probably an important source for his art. He wisely opined, “Cutting the trees is one thing. They’ll grow back. But mining the hills, that’s something very different.”

While secretary for the Wellington Waste Management Committee that was looking to site a new landfill, mainly for Guelph’s garbage, people opposed to the proposed landfill picketed my house – complete with placards and signs admonishing, “Don’t do it Dan.” Ken Danby (what is it with artists) lectured me in public as he worried about a proposed landfill site he thought too close to his idyllic 47 acre 1860s Armstrong Mill estate (Ken Danby bought the run-down Mill in 1967: it was sold to Jim Balsillie in 2011 for $2.4 million after Ken Danby died of a heart attack in Algonquin Park September 2007, he was 67). Mr. Danby’s Summer Solstice remains one of my favorite paintings. When I look at the jack pine in that painting anchored to the weathered Canadian Shield outcrop I sense Mr. Danby’s connection to his family, friends, and sense of place. The deeper the roots, the stronger the tree.

A few years before trying to find a new landfill for Guelph, I had a Co-op work term with Gartner Lee Associates the consulting engineering firm contracted to do much of the work for the Ontario Waste Management Corporation (OWMC). OWMC spent more than $200 million to try to find a hazardous waste site. Due to intense local opposition a site was never developed and wastes were eventually trucked to Alberta, across the US border, and elsewhere (a much riskier option than disposal in Ontario). The opponents to OWMC, and the angry residents near Guelph and Alma, Wellington County, as well as those opposed to wind turbines, compost facilities, and all manner of change, can be incredibly effective. That seems to be both good and bad.

While in Guelph I helped start Canada’s first Round Table on Environment and Economy and initiated the country’s first municipal Green Plan. The Round Tables emerged from Our Common Future and their truly was a benefit getting differing, but constructive, opinions around a common table. The Green Plans were a precursor to ‘Agenda 21s’ launched at the Rio UNCED Conference in 1992 (Canada’s first national Green Plan was released by Prime Minister Mulroney December 11, 1990; ‘Local Agenda 21s’ were brought forward at Rio with the support and insistence of Maurice Strong and Jeb Brugmann, ICLEI’s first Secretary General).

While travelling overseas I’ve worked in a few of sustainable development’s hotspots. Searching for gross domestic happiness in Bhutan while trying to avoid the surly feral dogs guarding the entrance of Thimpu’s Swiss Café. Pondering how so many used Land Rovers could end up in Nauru, along with the world’s highest rates of obesity and stripped soil cover (mined for the

255 guano). Island hopping in the Marshall Islands, Kirabiti, Samoa, Vanuatu, Fiji, and Federated States of Micronesia, while listening to residents express their fears about climate change. Looking for brown tree snakes in Guam, and only seeing a McDonalds. Trying to keep lions out of the garbage dumps and hippos out of the wastewater treatment ponds in Zambia’s parks. Working in the slums of Mumbai, Jakarta, La Paz, and Lusaka. Marveling at the mix of dolce faniti and governance challenges in Italy. Checking out the back-end of China’s manufacturing rush while wandering around the country’s garbage dumps and checking the wastewater flowing out of a few factories; or marveling at the number of women all collected in one place making running shoes in Indonesia. Or perhaps the slightly more fortunate ones – mainly Filipino – lining Orchard Boulevard in Singapore on Sundays as they enjoy their only day off from being a servant. Attending a conference in Riyadh and asking why the few stoic women can’t even have coffee with me.

Visiting Robben Island in Cape Town I marveled at the influence one person can have if they stay true to their convictions. This was reinforced when visiting Calcutta and standing at the side of Mother Theresa’s tomb. Or on the other side of India in Ahmedabad and seeing where Gandhi started his long salt walk and too-short career. Sitting in the kitchen of Willem Van Loon’s ancestral home in Amsterdam and wondering, as many Indonesians do, how he and the VOC, the world’s first publicly traded company that he helped start in 1602, and the tiny Netherlands, could colonize a country as large as Indonesia. Sensing the potential energy of cities like Kunming, Shanghai, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, and Johannesburg. Sitting in the same lobby of Washington DC’s Willard Hotel – where apparently Ulysses S. Grant started the practice of ‘lobbying’. Joining yet another UNFCCC ‘conference of the parties’ or Rio+20 and wondering how there can be so much talk about sustainable development with so few genuine results.

I’ve tried to learn from sustainable development leaders like some of the world’s well intentioned NGOs, entrepreneurs, managers of companies like Unilever, Philips and even Wal- Mart. I’ve had coffee, shared offices, attended conferences and lunch time talks, and met with gurus like Robert Goodland, Ken Hammond, Karl-Henrik Robèrt, Ismael Seregeldin, Maurice Strong, Bjorn Stigson, Ashok Kholsa, Gary Hirshberg, Gro Harlem Brundtland, Wangari Muta Maathai, Stephan Schmidheiny, Amory Lovins, Herman Daly, Ray Anderson, Desmond Tutu, Shakira, Bono, Youssef N’Dour, Muhammad Yunus, Melinda and Bill Gates, and Al Gore. The paths of many of these leaders often crossed through the World Bank.

The World Bank is to sustainable development what McDonalds is to fast food. The Bank’s motto of ‘Our Dream is a World Free of Poverty’ could just as easily be, ‘Sustainability: Supersize Me’. No agency has more resources, more passionate and qualified staff, more governments willing to be part of an experiment, or more of a mandate to figure out what sustainable development is and how this holy grail of development should be implemented. Critics of the Bank are legion, some with grounds, many without; or at least without credible alternatives. Searching for sustainability while working at the World Bank is like drinking from a fire hose.

While living in Bermuda I got into the habit of reading one-week-old (and therefore free) copies of The Economist magazines on the beach. This is the only reason I ended up joining the World Bank as I serendipitously saw an ad for the Bank’s Young Professionals Program with a specific

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mention of the need for solid waste management expertise. ‘Hey’, I thought, ‘maybe I could get an interview and a free flight to Washington’, as I’d never been. I didn’t know much about the Bank nor its mandate, and my longest overseas trip to that point had been with my parents to visit my mom’s family in the Netherlands.

I was ambivalent about applying to the World Bank. A born procrastinator, I kept putting off answering the long application form, and providing my own essay on ‘what does development mean to me’. Serendipity intervened again though. The last possible day to complete the application was a Sunday – I would have to courier the package first thing Monday to meet the deadline. I made a deal with my ex-wife (who really didn’t want me to apply to the Bank); if it rained on Sunday I would fill out the form. If it were sunny we would go to the beach and forget about Washington. It rained. I got the interview, and the job, and intensified my search for sustainability.

For me, working at the World Bank came with some uneasiness. When Guelph’s local newspaper heard of my taking the job there was an editorial about how ‘Dan was selling out’. A friend sent me the words to Bruce Cockburn’s They Call it Democracy. The refrain still plays in my head, “IMF, Dirty MF/You don’t give a flying f--k about the people living in misery.” The World Bank always gets lumped in with the IMF, but it is a catchy tune.

My search for sustainability began well before the World Bank, but the World Bank certainly ‘upped the game’. Some of the world’s toughest questions on sustainability are asked of Bank Task Team Leaders while being grilled by managers and lead advisors about a proposed investment project or research paper. This is then fleshed out with in-country government and community representatives. Rarely is the whole picture viewed, and there are usually clouds of obfuscation and never enough time for a proper sighting. Like triage in the emergency room, Bank teams are expected to be passionate about helping people, but foremost, to be professional, credible, and backed by facts. They must prioritize, and show how they will measure impact, and focus on implementation. After the loan is signed that focus can quickly blur as conflicting priorities arise, and people are forced to move on to the next task.

The Bank occasionally acts as if it is chasing the latest fitness-fad, looking to buy a new piece of exercise equipment or trying the latest miracle diet rather than sticking to the hard stuff like eating more vegetables, less sweets and booze, and morning jogs. Anyone who’s worked at the Bank long enough will have passed through at least one re-organization. The re-organizations are longer spaced than in government agencies, or certainly the private sector. Management is risk adverse, Directors look out for their assigned countries first, and Bank staff is somewhat coddled, many with a sense of entitlement, so ‘corporate tectonics’ leads to rare but strong earthquake-like changes. Nevertheless the dust settles quickly and the work – and flow of money – is rarely interrupted. With China’s, and other BRICS, ascendance, the Bank’s relevance is waning. This is probably unfortunate as many of the Bank’s tasks, such as impartial data collection and observation of the global commons, would need to be assigned somewhere else if the Bank did not exist. The World Bank has a critical role to play for at least the next fifty years, it may just be different from the one it provided for the last 60 years.

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Bermudians have a great way of defining the world’s mobile creative class: expats are said to be ‘missionaries, misfits or mercenaries’. Organizations like the World Bank and UN agencies are staffed by transients, with their G4 visas and green cards. Lives are grafted onto the local community, usually through the quick-growing roots of staff-member’s children, or the desire for a better retirement than in their country of origin. Most of the staff members are not immigrants; they are guests.

Commenting on something as complex and locally contextual as sustainable development is challenging. Especially when mainly viewed from the window of a moving taxi, train or airplane. Yet international expats have a unique view – broader than deep, but usually with robust technical and economic underpinning. There may be those who ‘dream of a world free of poverty’, but there are also those who are hired to get on with making it happen, and almost always they are a local resident. Finding that person and then finding a way to help them is usually the best bet for greater sustainability.

Saints are sparsely distributed throughout the world. They do not seem to have a preponderance to be in NGOs or international organizations, or even in local schools or health clinics. One of the largest collections of ex-Peace Corps volunteers is probably at the World Bank (not that Peace Corp volunteers have a higher proclivity to sainthood). So too a few formerly rabid NGO members who now wield significant influence in places like the UN and World Bank. By in large they are not disillusioned, but they have become very adept at shadow boxing and working through a seemingly unending palate that still lets them paint, but mainly in muted colors and shades of grey. Statistically, there are as many saints at the World Bank as anywhere else; they just get paid better at the Bank.

“If men were angels, no government would be necessary” (James Madison). Nor would the World Bank, IMF, United Nations, or WTO, be necessary, as all development would be sustainable.

The term sustainability, or sustainable development65, is now a red flag to the bull of the likes of Fox News, the National Post and other right-leaning media outlets. Some, like Tom DeWees and Rep. Dennis Hedke (R) have even called for an outright ban of the term. Amazingly, in 2013 Kansas tried to outlaw the term from usage in the State66. An iconic lightening rod, the term has become somewhat of everything to everyone, and for many people, nothing much. Strange though that a term supposedly so vacuous can still instill such passions. The concept should be simple: improve, or maintain, the quality of life for as many people as possible today, without diminishing the opportunity of future generations to do the same. However, the devil really is in the detail.

A recent perspective in my search for sustainability is how to minimize the danger the devil might impart when we overlook the details. As the Province of Ontario’s Chief Safety and Risk

65 Sustainability is defined here as the operational state of a system, e.g. urban or global economy or wetland that ensures maintenance of key attributes (productivity and processes). Sustainable development as a political construct endeavors to maximize human well-being (current and future generations) while safeguarding the productive capacity of planetary systems. 66 Trapenberg Frick et al, 2014.

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Officer I see how ‘little, little’ can quickly become ‘big, big’. Public safety, much like sustainability, is the sound preparation for possible big events like storms, power outages, flooding and social unrest, but it is also, just as importantly, about ensuring the ‘little things’ are carried out correctly and that inevitable mistakes are isolated and limited in their ability to magnify up the chain of service provision. Sustainable development is the extension of risk management.

Our personal experiences, cultures and current security (and safety) determine our individual perspectives on sustainable development. Combining all of these within an agency or community, city or even country, is how we shape current efforts toward sustainable development. The search for sustainability continues. Even an agreement on what we are searching for remains elusive. The risk of delay is high.

Following are a few vignettes of possible sightings by the author of that elusive thing many people, even those in Kansas, still call sustainable development.

A1.1 Niagara Falls

If ever there is a museum to sustainable development it should be in Niagara Falls for here is ground zero of sustainable development. In one easily accessible location an enormous amount of sustainability’s ‘elephant in the dark room’ can be discerned. And here we even learn the elephant’s name; Topsy.

Topsy the elephant actually met her demise on January 4, 1903 in New York City, but it was the prizefight being waged at Niagara Falls that brought about her death. She was purposely electrocuted as public spectacle, with 6,600 volts of AC electricity. This was Thomas Edison’s idea, wanting to show how his choice of DC electricity was far safer and superior to the AC alternative being proposed by Nikola Tesla and George Westinghouse. The event was filmed on Edison’s new invention, the motion picture camera, but by then he had lost the world’s first large-scale ‘standards war’ as AC electricity was quickly becoming the norm for cities around the world.

Edison had the pedigree and political connections. He had a drawer-full of patents for clever ideas like light bulbs (mainly using DC current). The AC-DC argument was a bitter fight with the interloper Tesla who had science on his side but little else. In 1888 Tesla begrudgingly sold his AC and induction patents to George Westinghouse who with the Adams Power Station at Niagara Falls on November 16, 1896 provided AC power to the industries of Buffalo and ushered in the electric system now seen around the world. Similar to Watt needing the business savvy of Matthew Boulton to broadly launch his new steam engine design, Tesla on his own was unable to scale-up his ideas of AC electricity supply.

“The evolution of electric power from the discovery of Faraday in 1831 to the initial great installation of the Tesla polyphase system in 1896 is undoubtedly the most tremendous event in all engineering history.”67

67 Dr. Charles F. Scott; Electrical Engineering, August 1943 (Vol. 62, No. 8), pp. 351-355.

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Tesla died a pauper at age 87 in his hotel room in New York City. Edison and Westinghouse both did okay in the end.

Niagara Falls and its ushering in of today’s electrified society also introduced the world to modern corporate research. Thomas Edison after helping to start General Electric, and eventually purchasing Tesla’s patents for AC motors through a partnership with Westinghouse, summed up his new corporate research model; “I can hire a mathematician but a mathematician [or economist] cannot hire me’. Edison opened the first corporate research laboratory in the US. GE eventually had 3000 engineers and scientists by 1999 with research centers in New York as well as China, Germany and India. In the beginning the group worked on discovery and patents, supported by financial infusions from investors like J.P. Morgan (Edison had 1093 patents to his name, including lead-acid car batteries; ironically his grand ambition was to power automobiles through DC batteries).

In addition to the AC/DC saga and the enormous impact on today’s infrastructure and city-form it spawned, along with much of today’s banking and investment structure, Niagara Falls is important when looking at sustainability for several other reasons. Along with the honeymoons and hype, two near-by iconic canals define much of the region’s development. Love Canal and Erie Canal symbolize much of North America’s industrialization and move toward, or away from, sustainability.

Erie Canal is one of the most important civil works ever built to shape a city. New York City owes much of its economic stature to the Erie Canal. Prior to the Canal shipping flour from Buffalo to NYC took 3 weeks and cost $120/ton. After the Canal it took 8 days and cost just $6/ton. A headline in the Times of London rightly predicted when the canal opened that, “Erie Canal would make NYC the London of the New World.” The Erie Canal fueled massive growth in New York City that quickly overtook Philadelphia as America’s most important city on the Eastern Seaboard (Kennedy, 2011).

Love Canal, on the other hand, could be argued to be one of the most powerful indicators of society’s waning honeymoon with technology and economic development. Love Canal, Thalidomide, DDT, Fukushima, and the Cuyahoga River catching fire (again) – these are examples of iconic events that raised uncertainty in people’s minds. Love Canal, and the near-by Hyde Park hazardous dump site highlight the possibilities of severe disconnect between development and industrialization and full integration of potential externalities. There are likely more than 1000 abandoned hazardous waste sites along the Niagara River, requiring untold billions to remediate.68

68 The Hyde Park chemical dump near the shore of the Niagara River contains some 80,000 tonnes of toxic waste including an estimated 1.6 tonnes of dioxin (the largest dioxin dump in the world). There are about 800 inactive hazardous waste sites along the US-side of the Niagara River, including half the world’s known radium waste (dumped after WWII bomb-building). This one waste site on Pletcher Road is estimated to require $2 Billion to remediate (work is still not underway). Western New York has 174 identified Superfund sites, including 43 designated as ‘significant threats’. These sites, plus those on the Canadian side of the River will require untold billions to remediate (from various reports, including Buffalo News, 21 April, 2013).

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Access to cheap power and strategic location with large populations of potential customers, and a secure geopolitical environment (supported by the 1909 US-Canada Boundary Waters Treaty), led to the Niagara corridor’s emergence as the 1900s chemical industry equivalent of today’s Silicon Valley. Most of the hydropower infrastructure along the Niagara River is still in operation today. Niagara Falls, NY, along with Detroit (ties with auto industry) and Rochester (headquarters of former Kodak) are now approaching their nadir as industrial methods change. They are also significantly encumbered with legacy issues such as hazardous waste sites and infrastructure in need of rehabilitation.

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Nikola Tesla is best known for his polyphase electric system now widespread around the world, however it is his prescience with wireless communication that might be most noteworthy.

“When wireless69 is perfectly applied the whole earth will be converted into a huge brain, which in fact it is, all things being particles of a real and rhythmic whole. We shall be able to communicate with one another instantly, irrespective of distance. Not only this, but through television and telephony we shall see and hear one another as perfectly as though we were face to face, despite intervening distances of thousands of miles; and the instruments through which we shall be able to do his will be amazingly simple compared with our present telephone. A man will be able to carry one in his vest pocket.” Nikola Tesla, 1929

Tesla was awarded a patent for the radio, June 21, 1943, five months after his death. The US Supreme Court stripped the patent from Marconi, who had erroneously received the award. Marconi received the Nobel Award in Physics in 1909 for his contributions to wireless telegraphy. Upon Tesla’s death the FBI ordered the Office of Alien Property to seize his papers and possessions although Tesla had been a US citizen since 1891. The papers were eventually inherited by Tesla's nephew, Sava Kosanovich, and are now housed in the Nikola Tesla Museum in Belgrade, Serbia.

Niagara Falls as an urban system would include both Niagara Falls, NY (pop. 50,000 and declining) and Niagara Falls, ON (pop. 83,000, and growing) and yet anyone who has visited the two communities is aware of marked differences70. The differences, big and small, come from a multitude of social norms, demographics, regional and international trends and macro-economic issues. These go well beyond the underlying infrastructure.

Niagara Falls, and the paths of a few of the men and women like Nikola Tesla, Adam Beck, J. P. Morgan, Thomas Edison, Marilyn Monroe (filming the 1953 thriller ‘Niagara Falls’), Princess

69 ‘Wireless’ here refers to telephony and telegraph. 70 For example, Niagara Falls, NY has a violent-crime rate twice the US national average, while the crime rate of Niagara Falls, ON is lower than the Canadian average, and declining (US National Census, 2013 and The Standard, July 25, 2012).

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Dianna and her sons in 1991, and Annie Taylor,71 highlight how much of today’s ‘given’ is the result of happenstance and serendipity. A few truisms associated with these circumstances emerge: simpler is usually better, e.g. the water sharing agreement between Canada and US is less than five pages; truth, like water, is hard to hold-back indefinitely;72 cooperation is enormously powerful; most larger scale programs and traditions start small, with first-movers often not knowing what they started;73 integrity is powerful in the long run; people love spectacle; and the elephant in the dark room will likely never be fully known (there may be more than one elephant in the room). But every now and then an elephant like Topsy comes along to make it easier to see what’s really going on.

Elephants and their Shades of Grey

Another more recent elephant story in bright shades of grey is Limba of the Bowmanville zoo. Limba was euthanized December 3, 2013. The death of Limba made the front page of local newspapers, many tears were shed, and a special tribute read in the House of Commons. School children in Bowmanville knew Limba well. Everyone in Bowmanville knew Limba as she would walk the streets every now and then and never missed the Santa Clause Parade. Santa shared top- billing in Bowmanville.

There is considerable controversy still swirling around Limba. She was Canada’s oldest elephant (53 when she died) and after her herd-mates had either died or moved, she lived on her own for her last few years. Animal rights advocates were against her solitary confinement and against the idea of keeping elephants in a cold climate like Canada’s.

Limba’s death came just two months after the controversial relocation of Toronto Zoo’s last three elephants, Iringa, Toka and Thika. More than two years of at-times heated debate finally ended when the three elephants were trucked to the PAWS (Performing Animal Welfare Society) facility in California. Bob Barker, one of the world’s more determined elephant-rights advocates, paid the $200,000-plus transportation costs. Total costs associated with the Zoo’s elephants – enclosure, admissions, maintenance and transportation – exceeded several million dollars.

The Toronto Zoo’s last three elephants were originally saved from death when the rest of their herd was massacred in Mozambique late 1970s. My first project in 1993 at the World Bank was in Zimbabwe’s Gonarezhou National Park. The Park, on the border with Mozambique, was being developed to help bring balance back to the region and to help save elephants. The civil war in Mozambique and tensions with neighboring countries led to dismal conditions for local residents as well as leading to dangerous marauding elephants that wreaked havoc on farmer’s crops, trees, and even the overall ecosystem. Unconvinced about the tourism potential, local residents wanted

71 The first person to attempt to go over Niagara Falls in a barrel was 63-year-old schoolteacher Annie Taylor, who, seeking fame and fortune, loaded herself – and her cat – in a barrel and descended over the falls in 1901. She and the cat survived. 72 In 1848, Niagara Falls actually stopped flowing for 30 hours when ice fields from Lake Erie jammed at the mouth of the river. 73 Niagara Falls honeymoons started as early as 1801 when Aaron Burr’s daughter Theodosia chose to honeymoon there. Jerome Bonaparte, Napoleon’s brother, followed her in 1804; word got out and a tradition was born. Today more than 50,000 Niagara honeymoons are arranged each year.

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all the elephants killed. Many of the elephants were maimed and tense from traversing the extensive mine fields left over from the regional conflict. The Gonarezhou area was to have hundreds of elephants culled and more than one hundred re-located to South Africa. The project included support for a local NGO (CAMPFIRE74) to build economic benefit for the regions where residents agreed to try to live with the elephants.

Sitting around a campfire miles away from any major community talking wildlife, infrastructure, and possible futures for local children, provides a very different perspective than from Washington, or a Ministry of Environment office, or sunny California.

Almost all of the world’s zoos are in cities. Most of the ivory (legal and illegal) sold in the world goes to customers in cities. Bluefin tuna and minke whales for food, beaver pelts for hats (historically), rhino horns and tiger-parts for aphrodisiacs – these products are taken from the wilds but are sold in cities. Wildlife conservation is mostly an urban issue. Just as customers are mostly urban, so too the supporters of agencies like WWF and Greenpeace.

The economic assessment for the Gonarezhou project relied on a healthy supply of international tourists. Visitors, hoping to see elephants and other wildlife would pay thousands of dollars to local lodges and community tour guides (in addition to overseas operators and a flight of $5000 or more75). Other visitors would also pay for the right to shoot the animals (ideally at different times). Political turmoil in Zimbabwe and long distances from an international airport limited the number of tourists. Safari participants and big game hunters make strange partners but the program through a healthy supply of pragmatism, community support, and long-term engagement and trust building, is still yielding important benefits despite current political challenges.

When in Zimbabwe I was allowed to tour the National Park’s secret cache of recovered elephant tusks, rhino horns and animal skins. The building was under armed guard – the animal parts worth millions. A big question the government was wrestling with was whether to sell this cache, or destroy it. In 1989 President Moi in Kenya burned $3 million worth of elephant tusks (from about 2000 slaughtered elephants) apparently at the urging of his new Wildlife Conservation Director Dr. Richard Leaky76.

Zambia followed Kenya’s lead destroying 9.5 tonnes of ivory in 1992; Kenya another 5 tonnes in 2011; Gabon 5 tonnes in 2012; and the first importing country, the Philippines destroyed 5 tonnes in 2013. Tanzania and Zambia hope to sell their remaining recovered ivory, proposing to use the funds for conservation purposes. There is considerable controversy on what to do with recovered illegal ivory (and other animal products). Selling the ivory could generate necessary funds for conservation and government services like health care and education. On the other hand selling any ivory contributes to overall demand, likely increasing downstream illegal poaching. Also, guarding the ivory tusks is expensive, and much often goes missing (National Geographic, Aug 2, 2013).

74 Communal Areas Management Programme for Indigenous Resources (CAMPFIRE). 75 In addition, the average international flight to Zimbabwe-Mozambique is about 12 hours, or some 3.5 tonnes CO2 per trip. 76 New York Times 19 July, 1989.

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Wondering if Bob Barker is right and Toronto’s elephants are happier in warmer California and if that was the best use of his money; or if Limba did more good than harm to the world’s elephants, and Bowmanville’s children; or if it is a good idea to let people shoot the same animals others are trying to see on safari; or if it is a good idea to destroy recovered illegal elephant tusks – answers to these questions seem to come in shades of grey.

Schellenhuber et al (2014) liken today’s climate change discussions between countries to the six blind men trying to discern the elephant. They suggest much better results would be possible if they shared information. This thesis argues it might be easier for cities to discern, and shape, the elephant rather than their respective countries.

A1.2 Washington DC

The best view of the Washington Mall is looking westward from the Capitol’s west terrace. Unfortunately though this view is no longer available to the public. Post 9-11 the terrace is another place in the long list of areas taken from the public for security reasons by (national) government: So too the Supreme Court’s front entrance, and traffic in front of the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue. Now the north side of the White House is a barren plaza that is even closed to pedestrians every now and then. The sidewalk on the east side of the White House is closed to pedestrians even though it’s more than 100 meters from the White House. On the west and south sides pedestrians are shepherded well around the Old Executive Building.

Washington’s buildings are often marred by bollards, concrete planters and walls that will one day surely provide an excellent example of the ‘law of unintended consequences’ as emergency vehicles are prevented from easy access to the buildings. Statistically rare, terrorists take precedence in planning over more likely fires and weather related emergencies. Even riding a bicycle around Washington has become more difficult and dangerous as all foot and cycle traffic is funneled around sites like the Lincoln Memorial and the Department of State Building.

The slow but inexorable removal of roads, footpaths, and convenience has gone largely unchallenged in the Nation’s Capital. Security trumps everything, but maybe the city’s priorities for what it’s defending itself against need to be challenged.

Washington DC is about as good a place as any to see how good intentions are not enough. Saint Bernard of Clairvaux, 1091 – 1153, is credited with saying, “Hell is full of good intentions or desires”, and Samuel Johnson is thought to have further refined that with, “the road to hell is paved with good intentions.” Despite closing the road to traffic, in Washington DC the direction it’s headed is still apparent.

To live in Washington during the Monica Lewinski – Bill Clinton affair, Florida’s hanging chads, and President Obama’s Don Quixote-like efforts at hope and peace, provided a ringside seat to the show that highlights the huge difference between governance and action. Alexis de Tocqueville’s observations on democracy in America are as valid today as they were in 1832. His observations were mainly from places like New York City, Albany, Syracuse, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Boston, Memphis and Georgia. De Tocqueville only spent two

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weeks of his 11 month trip to America in Washington DC – a ratio that seems to support the show over substance associated with the city and its place in the country. The World Bank occasionally gets caught up in the hype of what’s happening in the White House or on The Hill.

The World Bank. Would Jesus Work Here?

When Kate, our oldest daughter took a first year international development course at Trent University, one of Canada’s more left-leaning schools, she drew the short straw and had to debate against the proposition that ‘The IMF and World Bank’s structural adjustment programs did far more harm than good.’ Kate was well prepared, and Iceland’s international default and IMF ‘rescue’ at the time was fortuitous (for Kate’s team anyway). Surely this would show that even rich countries go bankrupt, and blaming the fire department for houses burning down is not entirely fair. But the winning team was decided by a class vote. Kate never had a chance. Her classmates and professor’s mind were made up before the debate began.

‘Would Jesus Work Here?’ is a great debate that Kate and I had about the World Bank. I still think He would, but maybe every once in a while He would overturn a few tables and chase out an unsuspecting moneychanger or two. Kate also wisely points out the inherent arrogance in even posing the question of wondering if Jesus (or Muhammad, or Buddha, or whomever) would work at the same place as you (that degree was worth it after all).

The fact that the World Bank is headquartered in Washington is not lost on most detractors, and supporters. Perhaps surprisingly, Washington’s politicians, the bulk of the 90,000 registered lobbyists, and the twenty-something year-old Congressional aides, are all more transient than most of the staff in agencies like the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, the 2000- plus trade associations located in the city, or the 10,000-plus civil servants. Many staff end up being rooted to the area through their children. Regardless of nationality once staff have children, and even more powerful, grandchildren, who want to stay ‘home’ the power of place shifts and Bank staff are keen to live near Washington.

How international development workers anchor to where they live is important. If the ‘creative class’ is inclined to pick-up and regularly relocate to greener locales a question sooner or later will be ‘where’s home, where are your roots?’

Albeit different times, Jesus is thought not to have travelled more than 200 miles from His birthplace. If alive today, Jesus would probably eventually travel to the World Bank, UN, OECD and a few other offices and academic institutions. Chances are though, that Jesus today would still be anchored somewhere and grow His works from there. As a visitor or employee at the World Bank, Jesus (or Muhammad) would probably sooner or later give a ‘brownbag lunch’. Several people would argue His Divine opinions, claiming that having only Middle East experience limits the transferability of lessons, and without a full Social Assessment it is difficult to really know if the poor are benefitting.

The discussion would be forthright and usually respectful. The world’s best collection of books criticizing the World Bank is found in the World Bank’s bookstore and much of the World Bank’s best criticism comes from its staff. Herman Daly (a Bank-staff for several years) in

265 giving his farewell talk when leaving the Bank summed up his frustrations well. He criticized the Bank for what he called ‘misplaced concreteness’. His condemnation was scathing, but so too was his commendation of colleagues effusive. He knew that no one had a better opportunity to change things than he and his fellow employees.

Work at the World Bank is often divided between headquarters and the field. Figuratively headquarters is where the power is, but it is in the field where things get done. If an employee Jesus probably would spend the majority of His time in the field. Regardless of where He was posted, the focus on the poor, and poverty, seems consistent with the teachings of all faiths. But again, it’s in the details (and execution) where change is made.

One of the most common indictments against the World Bank is its purported championing of ‘the Washington Consensus’ – i.e. market liberalization and ‘neoliberalism’. The term Washington Consensus is another great example of how terms get twisted to suit the user’s purpose. The Washington Consensus in its strictest sense is attributed to economist John Williamson who in 1989 prescribed a relatively standard set of ten requirements that any financially troubled country would need to adopt, e.g. reigning in deficits; moving public spending away from subsidies – especially on things like energy – and more toward broader based provision of primary education and health; property rights; and trade liberalization. The devil again lurks in the details.

Some of the World Bank’s more strident critics like Noam Chomsky, Susan George and Naomi Klein, are most incensed by how governments seem to pursue different parts of the development agenda with different degrees of commitment. For example, there is often a big push for trade liberalization, but much less support to remove restrictions on worker mobility or sustained improvements to worker rights. The critics argue that companies and some countries, and especially the rich, benefit from liberalization, but that these benefits are particularly few and far between for the truly poor. They have a point – anyone from Canada travelling on a regular basis with colleagues born in countries like Colombia, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Haiti, and India learns quickly that there may be free flow of capital and information in the world, but movement of people is staunchly controlled (and these are the affluent of their countries who possess passports).

Public policy implemented in places like Washington is supposed to ‘lift all boats,’ no matter how small the boat. But many detractors of these policies point out how the backflow and turbulence created as the big boats rise so quickly overwhelms the smaller boats. The (seemingly growing) aversion to taxes and wealth sharing does not help. For the last couple decades Jesus’ Disciple and tax collector, Matthew, would not feel welcome in Washington. Tax is an unpopular word in many countries, but the vehemence against the concept is particularly apparent in Washington. The Tea Party – the same group trying to outlaw ICLEI and the term Sustainable Development – is a symptom of the erosion in trust of government. This like the view of the Washington Mall is best viewed from the steps of the Capitol.

In 1933 Franklin Delano Roosevelt gave his inauguration speech from those same Capitol steps now off-limits to the public. “The money changers have fled” he called out, capturing well the

266 public’s anger having just come through the Great Depression. So many people, paid such a high price, for something that was not of their doing.

On any given day more than $5 trillion in currency might be traded; more than 1000 times what is needed to support (non-leveraged, material-based) international trade77. Speculators are rarely the ones who pay the price for their folly and greed. Walking around the Washington Mall and seeing the places from where Martin Luther King, FDR, and John F. Kennedy called out for fairness, it seems only natural to see Jesus, Muhammad, or Buddha speaking from the same steps. And before their speeches they might stop by the World Bank cafeteria for lunch; good food (not as subsidized as the IMF), and usually fish on Friday.

Probably it is arrogance, but after working at the World Bank a couple decades you can almost see where Jesus would give his talk in the Atrium or Preston Auditorium reiterating ‘The love of money is the root of all evil’ (Timothy 6:10) but with more hopeful admonishments, rather than the speech He would give on Wall Street, or next to an open pit mine, or polluted river, or perhaps at a shopping mall in almost any global city. Despite reorganizations, misplaced concreteness, and limited impact, the World Bank remains a hopeful place. I believe Jesus, Mohammad, Buddha would all be welcome, and in their way would be impactful.

A1.3 Bermuda, Bali, and other ‘Isles of Blessedness’

“Tempest-tossed souls, wherever you may be, under whatsoever conditions you may live, know this: in the ocean of life the isles of blessedness are smiling and the sunny shore of your ideal awaits your coming.”

James Allen

James Allen (As a Man Thinketh, 1902) may have been thinking of Bermuda and its connection to Shakespeare’s Tempest when he envisaged ‘sunny shores’ and ‘isles of blessedness’. Mark Twain was certainly smitten by Bermuda, opining; “You can go to heaven if you want. I'd rather stay in Bermuda.” Twain stayed for more than half a year on the island and tried to return as frequently as possible. Even when off the island Twain fought to keep Bermuda automobile free. James Gordon Bennett, an American newspaper magnate, brought the first automobile to Bermuda in 1906. And even Twain’s stature and determinedness would likely not have been enough to stem the wave of cars if it were not for the public support that came in 1908. A notable doctor was thrown from his startled horse reacting to an auto backfiring and cars were quickly banned as a result of public fury. But the apparent victory of the ‘war on the car’ was short-lived. Cars were allowed back on the island again in 1946. The love-hate relationship with cars continues. No one loves them more that the Minister of Finance: personal automobiles are the largest single source of revenue. Duty on the first $10,000 is 75 percent; duty increases to 150 percent of value in excess of $10,000. Only one vehicle is allowed per household and nowhere on the Island can you drive more than

77 In 2013 total value of goods traded in the world was $18,350 billion (WTO).

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35 km/h but even in Bermuda people want their cars. The roads are choked with BMWs and Mercedes – most never having gone beyond third gear. Bermuda is one of the most beautiful places on earth. Cool breezes, clear turquoise waters, whitewashed roofs, pastel buildings, orange-red Poinciana trees and oleander edge the roads, and most striking, the beaches really are pink. There are few places as colourful, or as rich as Bermuda. This year Bermuda again earned the distinction of having the world’s highest average per capita incomes - $107,000 per capita in 2014 (World Bank). Like its beauty Bermuda owes its wealth to geography. With its first shipwreck in 160978 (source for Shakespeare’s The Tempest) and its connection to trade ever since, Bermuda is one of the few countries that generates almost all its wealth through international trade; namely offshore businesses and tourism. Having only 60,000 citizens, and strong ties with both the UK and US, helps preserve this niche position. At first blush Mark Twain was right. Bermuda is paradise; Disney Land for adults. Residents are aware how fortunate they are and generally keep discontent, racial tensions, and ecosystem impacts well hidden. Bermuda generates enough wealth to buy all its food, and just about everything else from off-island. Being an isolated island with good researchers and statistics (almost everything has an import duty so tracking material that comes to the island is relatively straightforward), Bermuda is one of the world’s best living laboratories. Bermuda’s total land area is 4573 Ha (about 20.5 square miles). Bermuda is one place where ‘ecological footprint’ can actually be measured. If the boats and planes stopped coming and all the buildings, paved land and golf courses were converted back to agricultural land estimates are that enough food could be grown to supply one-tenth the population of 60,000 (Hayward et al, 1981). Total global wealth would have to increase 16 times for the rest of the world to live like Bermudians79. And then one wonders if there would be the not-so-small problem of needing another 15 planets to supply resources and ameliorate environmental impacts. But Bermuda also gives hope. Bermuda’s history is inextricably linked to climate and hurricanes. The tempest of 1609 wrecked two ships en route to Jamestown, VI. Miraculously all the passengers survived, and built new ships with timbers salvaged from the wrecks and cut-down locally. They arrived a couple years late. Bermuda is brushed or hit by a hurricane every 1.92 years, the last one, Hurricane Gonzalo hit October 17, 2014 (Bermuda Weather Service). Hurricane Emily hit the Island hard September 29, 1987. Emily was the fastest moving hurricane of the century and often considered the first hurricane linked to the Anthropocene’s warming climate. Solnit in A Paradise Built in Hell (2009) describes how in the wake of major disasters a wave of altruism and mutual support saves lives and builds community. The most startling thing about disasters, she argues, is not merely that so many people rise to the occasion, but that they do so with joy, and lasting impact. Nowhere is this more apparent than Bermuda. Bermudians can

78 The Sea Venture was on her maiden voyage en route to provision starving settlers in Jamestown, VA, when wrecked on Bermuda’s reef by a hurricane (all passengers survived). 79 See Table 4.1 The projected total global wealth increase from 2000 to 2100 is more than 13-times.

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quibble and agitate with the best of them, but come a hurricane, or other disaster, Bermudians hold strong, like the native Bermudian cedar. Community grows from the shared challenge. This strength of resolve, resilience – social rootedness – will be called on again. This is one more thing Bermuda might be able to trade for its continued wealth. Bali You cannot get much farther from Bermuda without starting to head back than Bali, over on the far side of the world. Almost Bermuda’s antipode, Bali is another one of those small islands with an enormous hold on the world’s collective imagination.

Hindus believe that Bali, the grandson of Prahlada, is immortal and was a great king that Vishnu respected. King Bali supposedly declared, “Oh my subjects, your happiness is mine. There will be no room for poverty in Bali’s empire. You need not search for heaven for I shall make a heaven of this earth.” Nehru aptly called Bali, the ‘morning of the world.’

Bali a small island of 5780 km2 situated just off the east coast of the larger island of Java, has been continuously inhabited for at least 3000 years. The island is steeped in a rich confluence of Hinduism and Javanese, and more recent influences from China and then the Dutch. Today every year as many as a million tourists visit the island’s beaches, hotels and occasional cultural wanderings.

Living in a relatively closed system the Balinese adapted. Rice was grown through efficient subaks and by the naming convention of children, some say that the imposed caste system and social pressures kept families limited to four children or less.

Complex society If the devil is in the detail, so too is God. The constant fight between good and evil plays out the world-over but in Bali it’s represented everywhere in the ubiquitous black and white checkered cloth covering statues and decorating the entrances to temples. The Balinese seem to be more aware of how the ‘little things’ grow through karma into big events, and ‘what comes around, goes around’. The Hindu philosophy Rwa Bhineda symbolizes the balance between good and evil, light and dark, rich and poor, happy and sad. The black and white cloth, or saput poleng, adorning the outer layer of Bali’s temples, catches the mind’s eye, urging balance and patience. This simple representation of balance between good and evil attempts to describe Bali and the world’s complexity. A powerful example of the need to address complexity when working with systems is the Balinese Water Temples. The community network and technological system that evolved over thousands of years was ‘assisted’ in the mid-1970s through the provision of high yield rice varieties, pesticides, and chemical fertilizers. Rice yields plummeted with the assistance. Lansing, among others, argued vociferously in the 1980s against the ADB agriculture assistance project. Lansing and Miller (2004), and Lansing and Kremer (1993) illustrated how Bali grew irrigated rice sustainably through a complex adaptive system. The anthropologists studying

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Balinese water distribution systems at the time provided compelling modeling studies that showed how the evolved system optimized yields. The historic system was re-instated and yields were restored. Ramalingan (2013) uses the Balinese water distribution example to argue for a greater appreciation of complexity theory. He recommends network analysis to improve aid and suggests that programs that are integrated, long term, incremental, and provide network analysis will likely yield the most dramatic improvement.80 Ostrom (1996) supported this approach. The small island states sprinkled about the world’s oceans are likely to be the first casualties of climate change. Many of the islands are atolls protected by coral reefs, much of the land just a meter or two above sea level. Already climate refugees are moving to higher ground. The Maldives government in 2009, trying to raise awareness in climate change and their precarious geography held a Cabinet meeting underwater.81 In 1994 on a World Bank trip I first visited Kiribati, a tiny speck of land isolated in the Pacific Ocean, 2000 km south of Hawaii and 5000 km northeast of Australia. We were visiting the Bank’s South Pacific member countries on a six-week infrastructure fact-finding tour. Upon landing we saw that the airport’s runway was under construction. I assumed maybe British workers as Kiribati only became independent from Britain in 1979. Bizarrely, at least to me at the time, the workers and equipment were from China. China, Japan, and a few other countries often try to win favour of the small countries. This geopolitical friendship strategy is much about garnering possible votes for things like whaling or recognition for Taiwan, or a host of other issues that might come to the United Nations Generally Assembly. One country one vote, and a few specks of nationalism get a new runway. Kiribati again serving much of an iconic role is also one of the first countries to prepare for climate change82. That South Pacific trip included visits to Fiji, Samoa (Aggie Grey’s grand-daughter lectured me on the evils of the World Bank), Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, and the Marshall Islands. The Marshall Islands are another one of those tiny places with a big claim to history. Bikini atoll, where the US detonated more than 20 nuclear warheads in the late 1940s, is part of the Marshall Islands. Majuro, the capital city of about 25,000, has some of the most severe squalor in the Pacific. The country still seems to be dealing with the cultural aftershocks of the detonations and being under the ‘protection’ of the US for more than 60 years. Diabetes, alcoholism and like most of the Pacific islands suicide is rampant. The grocery store I visited had two sections: processed meats and canned pasta, potato chips, chocolate and Doritos in one section. The other section had several huge open topped freezers with enormous slabs of unwrapped frozen tuna. The cabins in the small fleet of Marshall Airline’s aircraft (before they were all grounded permanently for

80 The issue of complexity theory, the Balinese rice program, and network analysis is well documented in Aid on the Edge of Chaos, by Ben Ramalingam, 2013 (the challenge of cities is peripherally mentioned - the lessons appear readily transferrable). 81 BBC News, Saturday, 17 October 2009. 82 Kiribati bought 6000 acres of land in Fiji to protect its food security and President Anote Tong predicted Kiribati will become uninhabitable from rising sea levels in 30 to 60 years (New York Times, Mar 28, 2014).

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mechanical issues) were divided into two compartments – passengers in the front half, chilled tuna in the back. The tuna mostly headed for Japan. Islands provide a great view into cultures and natural systems. MacArthur and Wilson (1967) in The Theory of Island Biogeography illustrated how the number of species increases exponentially as islands increase in size. This work complemented earlier observations by Darwin who attributed the large number of finch species in the Galapagos on isolation of the islands. In 2013 four former bosses from the Icelandic bank Kaupthing were sentenced to between three and five years in prison for their roles in the country’s 2008 banking collapse (BBC, 12 Dec 2013). Iceland is the only country known so far to have prosecuted and jailed someone for the more than $20 trillion83 loss in global wealth October, 2008, triggered (and many say caused) by subprime lending and other banking and investment irregularities. Again, islands help make things clearer. Diamond (2005) in Collapse reviews ancient cultures like the Anasazi, Maya and Vikings, and islands, especially Easter Island, to provide compelling analysis on why societies collapse. Turning this insight to today’s challenges he suggests twelve environmental problems that if not addressed, could lead to collapse of current societies. These are: (i) loss of natural habitat; (ii) over-harvesting of wild foods; (iii) biodiversity loss; (iv) soil erosion; (v) reliance on fossil fuels; (vi) over-extraction of fresh water; (vii) Over-use of earth’s terrestrial photosynthetic capacity; (viii) synthetic chemicals and trace metals; (ix) invasive species; (x) greenhouse gas emissions; (xi) unstable population growth; (xii) metabolism (resource consumption) levels of growing populations. Despite the scale of today’s planetary challenges Diamond provides cautious optimism and reason for hope. He bases his optimism on three factors. First, that these are self-inflicted problems. With sufficient political will they can be solved. Second, there is growing environmental awareness everywhere. Diamond traces this back to Silent Spring (Carson, 1962). And finally, our current interconnectedness can serve us well. With modern communication and monitoring systems, all parts of the (global) system can better understand what others are doing, and why. Gupta (2014) uses Molokai, Hawai’i as a case study to investigate how ‘localizing’ systems of production and consumption might be associated with improved sustainability. The island’s isolation and strong environmental ethos (aloha aina) encouraged local residents to live independently, e.g. local produce, and sustainably, e.g. rates of fish catch. These local efforts can abrade against similar sustainability efforts at a State-level, e.g. opposition to ‘Big Wind’, or even efforts at a national or global scale. “A Molokai resident advocating for island sustainability rooted in aloha aina [love of land] and an industrial ecologist arguing that sustainability cannot exist at anything less than a planetary scale come from very different vantage points. It is essential that we uncover the diversity of

83 Based on the $10.2 trillion loss in the US alone (estimated by John Carney, Business Insider, Feb. 3, 2009) and similar capital drops around the world.

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meanings attached to the term ‘sustainability,’ and make explicit the varying goals regarding what it is we are in fact trying to sustain, before we can even begin to think about implementing and evaluating this elusive yet critical concept.” (Gupta, 2014) A parallel between cities and Bermuda, Bali, Molokai and other islands, is possible. Cities evolve in-place, taking advantage of geography: A strategic port, proximity to fertile land, ease of defense. Cities cannot move out of harms-way. The strength of cities comes from their connectivity and resilience. Initial strength is through the connectivity of residents – this is why big cities have bigger economies – they provide more opportunity for residents to connect. And now the second stage of urban strength and resilience is emerging – connectivity with other cities. Similar to how Indonesia, comprised of about 18,000 islands (922 permanently inhabited), has a variety of cultures that do not always get along with each other, the country stays together, for the most part. Not always amicable, Aceh, Papua and parts of Sulawesi occasionally agitate for independence but stay. Timor Leste on the other hand has independence. Sustainability between the 122 largest cities will require civility, and a common purpose. Cities are both islands, rooted in place, but cities are also well connected and part of a global system of systems.

A1.4 Monarch Butterflies and Citizen Scientists

As if Bermuda were not blessed enough by its symphony of colour the island even has its own rare native population of non-migratory monarch butterflies, plus the occasional visits from migrating butterflies blown off course. Fred Urquhart, the legendary entomologist with the University of Toronto who with his wife Nora first discovered the Monarch’s over-wintering location in Mexico (Urquhart and Urquhart, 1976), thought the Bermuda population “aberrant” and that pre-1976 Bermuda was a possible over-wintering location for the eastern North American populations (Walton and Brower, 1996). Fred Urquhart began investigating migratory routes of monarch butterflies in 1937 affixing rudimentary labels on butterfly wings. In 1945 he married Norah Roden Patterson who became his full-time collaborator in butterfly research. In 1952 the magazine article “Marked Monarchs” appealed for volunteers to help with tagging. Twelve people responded. By 1971 more than 600 hundred volunteers were helping and over the years hundreds of thousands of migrating monarchs were tagged and reported. The breakthrough came on January 9, 1975 when Ken Brugger called the Urquharts from Mexico. Ken had found the over-wintering colonies high in Mexico’s Sierra Madres (National Geographic, August 1976). The work of the Urquharts was made possible through their thousands of citizen scientists and volunteers. The recent contribution by Zhan et al (2014) on the genetics of monarch butterfly migration and warning colouration brought together more than 10 researchers from 10 countries built on decades of study, broad public interest, numerous volunteers and more than 200 years of observational records. By sequencing the genetic coding of specimens from more than 100 sampling locations a new understanding emerged: monarch butterflies originated in North America and dispersed around the world in unique populations as flight muscle function evolved, while some populations, e.g. Bermuda and Florida shifted to non-diapausing (no dormancy, no migration).

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Fred Urquhart’s work was not without controversy. Urquhart’s work and apparent obstinance was not well regarded within the lepidopterists society (Halpern, 2011). Urquhart’s 1987 book, ‘The Monarch Butterfly: International Traveler’ was resoundingly critiqued for its failure to recognize the works of other researchers and its “undisciplined approach to science”.

A similar volunteer citizen scientist effort began in 1900 when Frank Chapman, an ornithologist at the American Museum of Natural History in New York, proposed counting birds as an alternative to the traditional Christmas Day hunts. Twenty-seven people in 25 different locations across the continent participated the first year and counted about 90 species.

Today the Christmas Bird Count takes place annually from December 14 to January 5, and typically more than 30,000 people worldwide count over 2,400 species—about 65 to 70 million birds each year (Christy Ullrich Barcus, National Geographic, Dec. 27, 2014).

Most citizen scientists live in cities even if their field of study takes them to the country side. Lately volunteers counting butterflies and birds have been reporting steep declines84 (National Geographic, Zhan et el, 2014). The political will (and funding) needed to limit these population drops will need to mostly come from cities. Cities have available large, mostly untapped pools of citizen scientists, who if provided with the means, would effectively contribute to urban research initiatives.

A1.5 Wal-Mart

Generally considered the first modern corporation – the Dutch East India Company – was founded in 1609 through the issuance of public shares that then created the world’s first stock market in Amsterdam. The Dutch East India Company was one of the biggest corporations for almost 200 years. At one point it commanded 5000 ships. But unlike cities, corporations come and go85. The VOC was eventually eclipsed by English firms such as the Hudson Bay Company, which in turn gave way to American trans-national corporations like Exxon, Apple, IBM, and Walmart.

When I was leaving Guelph for Bermuda around 1991 the battle over Wal-Mart was just heating up. Wal-Mart had its eye on property owned by a Jesuit foundation in the City’s north-end. A friend of mine was incensed – so much so he started an association to oppose Wal-Mart from locating in Guelph. He also wrote a book on the evils of Wal-Mart and its predatory pricing practices and ‘cancer-like growth’. I was asked to get a placard and join the protest before leaving the city for sunnier Bermuda. I wasn’t so sure and came up with a weak excuse about a conflicting commitment.

84 The aggregate area covered by the colonies near Michoacán, Mexico dwindled from an average of 22 acres between 1994 and 2003 to 12 acres between 2003 and 2012 and last winter hit a record low of 2.9 acres (Brower in New York Times, Mar 15, 2013). 85 The average life expectancy of a ‘Fortune 500’ corporation is less than 40 years (Hoornweg and Freire, 2013).

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Wal-Mart can trigger intense fights over shades of grey. In 2013, for example, Alaskan fisherman protested outside the Anchorage store urging the chain to buy wild Alaska salmon but in 2011 Wal-Mart had signed on to Marine Stewardship Council’s (MSC) sustainability standard. The fishers in Alaska were reluctant to join MSC because of costs and burdensome paperwork.86

Gary Hirshberg, president of Stonyfield Farm, one of America’s largest organic producers, wrestles with a similar shades-of-grey debate when it comes to Wal-Mart. He argues that organics are still a minor part of the US food system, but with large retailers like Wal-Mart making organics readily available, consumers have a much easier option to buy organic.

Wal-Mart’s relentless push at efficiency does not endear itself to everyone, nor its low salaries for sales staff. But as the world’s largest corporation, with more than two million employees, there is no denying its market influence. Wal-Mart can influence how ‘sustainability’ is defined for fish, what type of light bulbs are rewarded with shelf space, and how much prominence organic is given in the produce and dairy section.

Wal-Mart’s sustainability efforts can be traced to 2004 when Wal-Mart’s CEO Lee Scott hired Conservation International and assigned Andy Ruben, Wal-Mart’s Vice President of Strategy and Sustainability87, the task of developing and instituting Wal-Mart’s sustainability plan.

An important consideration in Wal-Mart’s efforts at sustainability was the company’s response to Hurricane Katrina in August, 2005. The firm was quicker to provide emergency support than federal, state and local government agencies. People noticed, and praised the company. Rueben was keen to measure, and replicate this capacity, and expand it to a broader suite of sustainability initiatives.

In April 2014 Wal-Mart held its first Sustainable Product Expo in Bentonville. Widespread corporate support, especially in the agriculture sector followed. In 2009 Wal-Mart started the Sustainability Consortium, which in 2012 launched the supplier Sustainability Index. The program is gearing up and suppliers are assessing their overall environmental and social impacts (Golden et al, 2010).

Wal-Mart is still referred to as the ‘Bully of Bentonville’ (Bianco, 2006), has paid out more than $1 billion in class action labour suits in the US, and is still seen as staunchly anti-union (Boudway, Bloomberg Business Week). Wal-Mart is also likened by some as a forest ecosystem subject to the same laws of nature, already starting its cycle of “creative destruction” from atop its ‘climax phase’ (Hurst, 2012).

There is a busy Wal-Mart in Guelph now. The Jesuits might even sell their produce there, and there is likely something already in the works to supplant Wal-Mart’s position as global retailer.

86 Mark Thiessen, Huffington Post 09/04/2013. 87 Andy Rueben, with civil engineering and MBA degrees, joined Wal-Mart in 2002 after founding Ernst & Young’s Strategy Practice. From: ‘The Walmart Sustainability Case project’, University of Arkansas, Sam M. Walton College of Business, 2012.

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Hopefully the Sustainability Index the corporation is launching will take root. The one started at For Earth’s Sake in Guelph in 1987 was far too small to have any impact.

A1.6 Beavers

The role of beavers in Canada’s history is significant. Beaver pelts for European markets gave rise to the Hudson Bay Company, and as the animals were locally extirpated, westward exploration of the continent continued in concert with the search for new sources of beaver pelts. Before the arrival of Europeans there were an estimated 100 – 200 million beavers in North America, yet by mid-19th Century, with harvesting of more than 100,000 pelts per year, beavers faced extinction in much of Canada. Fortunately for the beaver, and Canada’s local ecosystems, London fashion changed. For the stylish, the beaver pelt was replaced by silk hats.

The large rodent adorns Canada’s Coat of Arms, and serves as the emblem for the Canadian Society of Civil Engineers. The beaver’s industriousness captures the imagination. Many Canadian school children love learning of kits, and dams, continuously growing teeth, winter lodges safe from wolves and the cold, and for budding paleontologists, the extinct 2 meter tall, 150 Kg (Pleistocene era) giant beaver that used to live in Southern Ontario (fossil found at the Don Valley Brickyard, Toronto).

The closest I ever got to a beaver was not in the wilds of Canada but almost running over one while riding my bicycle to work in Washington DC. The bike trail between Alexandria and downtown DC runs alongside the George Washington Memorial Parkway and the Potomac River. The roadway is one of the best places to see fireflies in the evening dusk. The fireflies used to be especially plentiful along the edges of the Parkway just north of Alexandria before the National Airport. Here the road and wide median was lined with massive 100-year-old oak trees, reaching up in a massive canopy of leaves 40 meters high. The fireflies would start low in the grass and slowly drift upward flashing interest to potential mates, defying drivers to stay focused on the road.

Along this stretch of the Parkway the fireflies are fewer now. They seem to have declined with the loss of the trees. More than a dozen of the massive trees died in the span of a few years. Just stumps remain, some as large as 3 meters in diameter. The trees were lost to beavers. The beavers did not cut down the oaks – they were way too big, even for the most industrious beaver. Rather the beavers used stealth and a strange twist of the law.

The oaks that died along the George Washington Parkway were lost to rising groundwater levels, the roots not being able to be submerged. A pair of beavers made their home in a wooded section alongside the trail. As beavers are wont to do, they built a dam just next to the boardwalk section of the trail. The water backed up and flooded the walking/bike trail. Able bodied workers from the National Parks Department tore down the dam. The beavers re-built, the trail was flooded again and people detoured on higher ground. The dam was taken down again. The beavers re- built. This back and forth battle – beavers vs National Parks – lasted more than a year. The trail stayed submerged about half the time as commuters lost patience; a few bikers even put up signs calling for the elimination of the beavers.

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The National Parks Department blinked first and spent more than $1 million to move the trail. Despite calls for trapping or a quick dispatch, the beavers had wisely moved onto National Park property where they were protected through the National Parks Act88. People came from miles to try to catch a glimpse of the beavers. For a while almost every early morning and evening dusk provided a view of at least one the pair working away. Every now and then annoyingly a tree would be cut down by a beaver and block the trail. The big oaks along the Parkway started to die from the higher water table.

A few months later a big beaver was seen dead along the Parkway; presumably hit by a car. The other beaver seemed to have left with their mate’s death, and only a few muskrats and appreciative birds benefitted from the remaining beaver pond. The beaver’s random decision to make a home in that stretch of riverbank bizarrely cost several million dollars, a dozen majestic oak trees, and untold annoyance to commuters, joggers and walkers. Yet, there was also something strangely comforting knowing that a few places, even if in the middle of the city, were given over to the whims and vagaries of nature.

A1.7 Musings from the Black Books

My guess is that I’ve flown almost 4 million kilometers and spent somewhere around 12,000 hours in planes, trains, security lines, lounges, buses and cars since reading that first copy of Our Common Future in 1987. For much of that time I carried around a black Moleskine notebook trying to capture random thoughts on sustainability. A few story lines emerge:

The social contract’s fine print. In Civilization and Its Discontent (1929) Sigmund Freud makes a compelling case that civilization (i.e. cities) exists to ‘curb the irrevocable ill will within the hearts of man’. Freud argues that civilization is paradoxically our largest source of happiness and unhappiness. Man has ‘immutable instincts’ and unlike bees and fish we are much more able to act upon these baser instincts. Cities and civilization are humanity’s antidote to tribalism and fractious intolerance. All cities exist within a social contract, or even more strongly, an irrevocable social compact, based on sufficient trust and good-will of citizens. Trouble arises quickly when the contract is not honored. The edge of a riot is an interesting vantage point to observe society unfold, albeit perhaps not the safest place. Back in 1993 I was in a Kijang van in Makassar, Indonesia (aka Ujung Pandang). On our drive out to the garbage dump (TPA) we stumbled into a ‘sanctioned protest’ for the Islamist United development Party (PDI). President Soeharto still clinging to power allowed these election campaigns every five years among the three permitted parties, all vying for attention (even though everyone knew that Soeharto’s Golkar party would win). Well-attended rallies, along with a few protests gave the illusion of uncertainty to the election outcome. This was the second day of the event and some 10 to 20 thousand people – mostly young men on motorbikes and standing on the backs of trucks – were out in protest. I being a bule and aid worker was of course oblivious to the risk we faced until I saw the sweat running down the back

88 The Act’s intent is more for bison, bear and more rare wildlife, than for the occasional beaver flooding urban trails or cutting down cherry trees along Washington’s Tidal Basin.

276 of our terrified driver providing yet another fake smile and holding out the two-finger sign (today’s party was assigned the second place). A little historical context may be warranted: Makassar is the capital of South Sulawesi, strongly Muslim, and the place from where the seafaring Bugis originate. The original ‘boogie man’ (i.e. Bugis man) came from South Sulawesi. In the day of Spice Islands trading European children were often goaded into good behavior by their maids through the telling of the warring and barbaric sailors (aka pirates) plying the South Java Sea. To ‘run amok’ is also a term originating in Indonesia, the immediate shift from common calmness to violence. In South Sulawesi bugis out of control can be terrifying. Our driver knew that these young hotheads were just a tiny nudge away from chaos and we would be prime targets for their venting if they ran amok. In an instant, like a herd of wildebeest sensing something, every face in the crowd changed and simultaneously turned looking off in the same direction. Everyone in the crowd had been electrified at the same time. Bloodlust is a fascinating and frightening thing to observe first-hand. The crowd turned away from us, and with a collective screech, they tore off as fast as they could. Only later did we learn someone had apparently spotted three youth sporting the colours of yesterday’s political party. Two were ripped apart by hand, and the third drowned trying to escape through a feted canal. The thing about that terrifying moment in Sulawesi is not how dissimilar the crowd was from one in Canada, or elsewhere, but how similar. Everyone everywhere is always finely balanced between our immutable baser instincts, and the tenets of civilization we have constructed to help us all ‘just get along’. Cities are one of the best things created by humans as they reward diversity and collaboration.

The potential of cities is probably what gives sustainable development proponents their greatest optimism. For example, Bermuda can be a grumpy, politically charged place. The veneer of whitewashed roofs, pink sands, bright flowers, and pleasant ‘good mornings’ do well to cover the discontent, but the 70-some percent black who share a lot less than 70 percent of the Island’s wealth, every now and then foment a riot, strike or some other form of protest might shatter the tranquility. And race aside, island-fever affects everyone, especially as anyone living in Bermuda knows how artificial and precarious (and affluent) their society is.

Being one of the Government’s chief union negotiators – against the Bermuda Industrial Union – is not the best way to win friends and influence people, however this was a key part of my job as the Country’s Solid Waste Manager. There was always a latent friction with the union, looking for an excuse to strike or deliver some protest of some sort. And the Government was not blameless in this little dance of angst and power. But every resentment, every grievance, every delay was ignored when the Island was hit by a hurricane. The community quickly coalesced and cooperated. *** Parents are not able to choose a favorite child, however every man has a favorite tie. I usually keep declarations of my favorite to myself as the tie wasn’t given to me by my wife, nor the girls. My favorite tie was bought mid-1998 at the ‘expensive’ men’s clothing shop at the Jakarta Hilton Hotel. June and July 1998 were among the most severe months of krismon, the Indonesian

277 fiscal crises. Before the crises the typical exchange rate was about 2600 rupiah per $1 USD. Mid- 1998 that rate had hemorrhaged to an anemic 14000 rupiah. The East Asian fiscal crises started in July 1997 when Thailand was forced to abandon its fixed exchange rate and the value of the baht plummeted. The whole region was affected, but in the end Indonesia was hardest hit. Indonesia was in shock. Still reeling from the January 15, 1998 photo seen round the world of a stern-faced IMF Chief Michel Camdessus looking on with arms crossed as President Suharto signed the capitulation papers hoping for some assistance from the IMF. Indonesia’s economy continued to contract, riots broke out, and Suharto was eventually forced to step down in May. Inflation reached almost 70 percent, and as with every economic crises the poor bore the brunt most severely. Some of us got into the habit of paying taxi drivers at pre-crises rates, and ideally in US currency. Seeing their happy acceptance, knowing they were likely now helping several families, provided a little relief to our worries and twangs of guilt. I bought my favorite tie on a Thursday I think. I was walking past the shop when the two sales clerks quietly called out to me, ‘Bapak, anda ingin membeli dasi?’ This was their first sale of the week. A tie that usually cost $40 - $50 was going for a couple dollars. The one I liked the most was red, with elephants (‘lucky elephants’ I was told). And even though it was not my favorite color I bought the suggested yellow one too. I don’t know if buying a tie in one of Jakarta’s most expensive stores, and paying what is a guilt- inducing fire-sale price, and yet seeing so much joy through a simple financial transaction, is good or bad. I don’t know if the IMF and President Clinton were right in imposing such severe financial austerity on President Suharto; if floating exchange rates are were the way to go; or if Malaysia’s President Mahathir’s and Jonathan Hanke’s purported currency boards and exchange controls were a better approach. Shades of grey perhaps, but I like to think a deep-red tie with bright white elephants can indeed be lucky and still in fashion almost 20 years later.

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Appendix 2: Additional City Partners

The Academics (local and global academic institutions). How do you build a great city? Build a great university and wait two hundred years (from US Senator Monaghan). With regard to sustainable cities however, the world does not have 200 years to wait for a durable partnership between pilot cities and their local universities. Most cities with more than 1,000,000 residents have local academic institution(s) that are likely already working with their host community. These partnerships should be strengthened and participating cities and their host countries should fully integrate a comprehensive research program with their local universities. Today there are more than 600 accredited teaching hospitals around the world: If you want to graduate as a fully-licensed doctor you will need to intern at one of these teaching hospitals. Surprisingly, even though urban management consumes a much larger share of global GDP, there is not (yet) a single partnered ‘teaching-city’ and university. Accredited, well-experienced and professional urban managers are urgently needed. The Engineers (American Society of Civil Engineers, ASCE, World Federation of Engineering Organizations, WFEO). Arguably no profession or stakeholder is more responsible for encouraging efforts toward sustainable cities than the engineers, especially civil engineers. In most countries engineers are legally bound to adhere to the tenets of sustainable development, yet track-records are not exemplary. Engineering associations like ASCE, WFEO and Engineers Without Borders, EWB, recognize this and are taking positive steps to address these needs. Every road, every bridge, every bolt, every power station has a calculated factor of safety. The design engineer used his or her professional judgment to include sufficient capacity to compensate for what is not known, or where failure might occur. When building sustainable cities during the next 35 years engineers need to be more assertive in calculating, communicating and assuring that a ‘factor of sustainability’ is included in the aggregate civil works of a city. Evaluating a single ‘green building’ within a congested, polluted, dangerous city is no greener than assuming a single tree can make a forest. A significant challenge to sustainable cities is the lack of engineers, especially in Africa. A more than 80-fold increase in engineers is needed in some countries (a task more daunting than finding funding). The UK for example has a population of about 1,100 per engineering graduate, while Cameroon, Ethiopia and Mozambique have populations greater than 81,000 per engineering graduate (and many of these engineers leave the country upon graduation). By 2050 an additional 20,000,000 engineering students are needed in Africa (based on similar staffing levels in OECD-member countries) Hoornweg et al, (2014). The City Associations (e.g. ICLEI, UCLG [Metropolis], C40, GCIF, WCCD, Cities Alliance). Likely every country with more than a handful of cities has an active municipal (city) association. These associations, in countries like Colombia and the Philippines, provide important information sharing and capacity building among cities. As a first step, these associations should be identified and assisted where possible. Many of them are already talking to their international compatriots, however these discussions are generally more restrained than country-to-country dialogues as cities tend to have much smaller travel budgets and tend to be more parochial (local) than their national governments.

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A few international city associations emerged in the last 40 years. The first UN-Habitat conference in Vancouver in 1976 brought together more than 200 cities. And ICLEI, one of the first international city associations, was launched at the initial WCED Rio Conference in 1992. Important follow on city associations include Union of Cities and Local Governments (established in 2003), with the large-city association of Metropolis. C40 (now representing some75 cities) started as a mayor-to-mayor initiative to encourage greater city-based involvement in climate change activities. Cities Alliance, a donor supported association focused on Part-2 member cities, is an important partner as its long standing ‘City Development Strategy’ is similar to GEF’s proposed city platform. The GCIF is another important city-member organization and the WCCD, building on GCIF’s membership base is growing city data platform that is working with cities to implement ISO 37120 standard on city indicators. The Foundations (e.g. Rockefeller, Gates). The Rockefeller Foundation helped publish a seminal book, ‘The Century of the City’ in 2009. More recently the Foundation launched the 100 Resilient Cities campaign, requiring participating cities to create the position of ‘Chief Resilience Officer’ (cities are provided a grant of up to $1 million to enhance resilience). The Gates Foundation, similar to many foundations working on sustainable development issues is increasingly targeting urban issues. Foundation support to cities, or their urban partners, is likely to continue to grow as urbanization grows and the power of cities to bring about greater local and global sustainability intensifies. The ‘simple’ driver that between now and 2050 the world’s cities over 5 million residents (with all the associated energy and materials use) is likely to increase from 58 to at least 138 is sobering – all partners are needed. The NGOs and ‘Think Tanks’ (e.g. World Resources Institute WRI, World Economic Forum WEF, World Wildlife Fund WWF). Many of these organizations have long-standing involvement with cities. WRI, for example prepared one of the most important papers on cities and material flows in 1997. Hopefully WWF will be amenable to preparing a draft index of city- based biodiversity impact (needed for sustainable city limit mapping). An important addition to the sustainability research field is Future Earth (launched 2013). Future Earth is a 10-year international research initiative to develop knowledge of risks and opportunities of global environmental change and for supporting transformation towards global sustainability in the coming decades. Future Earth hopes to mobilize thousands of scientists while strengthening partnerships with policy-makers and other stakeholders to provide sustainability options and solutions in the wake of Rio+20 (from http://www.futureearth.info). Future Earth intends to build on existing global environmental change programmes such as Diversitas, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and World Climate Research Program (WCRP). UN-Habitat, UNEP and other UN organizations. The UN, similar to organizations like the World Bank is ‘owned and managed’ by countries (although UN-Habitat has the express mandate to represent sub-sovereign governments directly). Countries often have different objectives than cities. Even though there is ‘only one voter and one taxpayer’ this tension between various levels of government waxes and wanes in most countries. Based on mandates and priorities, conciliation always needs to be practiced between national and city governments.

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Cities are also learning how to interact (directly) with international agencies, and what on-the- ground assistance may be forthcoming. UNEP will likely grow its mandate vis-a-vis cities – probably in at least two areas. UNEP’s ‘City-Level Decoupling’ initiative, which encourages greater efforts at reduced material flows and circular economies, is an important program for cities. UNEP may also be called to fulfill part of its original mandate – environmental monitoring – in cities. UNEP might emerge, for example, as an unbiased (urban) air and water quality monitor. UN-Habitat can assist cities through its important Habitat III Conference scheduled for 2016. UN-Habitat is also an important proponent for an urban focus in the proposed 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (see Appendix 3). International Finance Institutions. IFIs like the World Bank, Asian, Inter-American, and African Development Banks, as well as the new BRIC Bank, provide considerable finance to activities within cities. Increasingly these activities are being directly supported through local governments. These investments should be evaluated within an urban area’s overall sustainability plan. The IFIs also have ancillary services important to cities, e.g. analysis and data collection services, partner institutions like the International Finance Corporation. Financiers and Insurance Agencies. These are two powerful global groups who would benefit considerably from more sustainable cities. Financiers, such as those issuing ‘green bonds’ and longer-term investments often sought through pensions and sovereign wealth funds, would benefit from more sustainable cities. So too would the insurance industry – who will benefit considerably as cities increase their resilience thereby reducing potential insurance claims. These two groups should be consulted as the GEF platform evolves as they could provide long-term support for the initiative.

Private Sector Associations (e.g. WBCSD, Chambers of Commerce). WBCSD’s Urban Infrastructure Initiative is remarkably similar to the common platform proposed by GEF. Consolidating the UII experience and integrating the private sector supported approach would likely provide considerable benefits to pilot cities. Similarly, local and international chambers of commerce are important constituents as they provide direct feedback on how corporations perceive the receptivity and credibility of cities as they interact with the private sector.

Corporations (e.g. Siemens, Cisco, GDF Suez, Unilever). Many magazines are awash in corporate advertising for smart cities, connected cities, green city indices and city-based analysis, e.g. McKinsey, PwC, Accenture. These companies all appreciate the sheer enormity of the urban market. The world’s economy is driven by cities. These corporations have some of the best analytics and experience available. Much can be accessed by cities (without automatically paying). Through mutually-beneficial partnerships and clear assistance strategies, cities can take advantage of this wealth of expertise. The GEF platform can facilitate much of this support.

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Local private sector. Most city managers prefer to deal with local representatives, and most of the world’s private sector is local. Cities do well to constantly assess local perceptions of their interactions with local (and global) companies. Participating pilot cities should ask to have a unique review for them included in the World Bank’s annual ‘Doing Business Review.’ The lessons and import are even more compelling when applied locally.

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Appendix 3: Population Projections of the World’s Largest Cities this Century Table A1: Cities with Populations Greater than 5 Million (WUP Extrapolations)

2006 2025 2050 2075 2100 Population Population Population Population Population City City City City City (millions) (millions) (millions) (millions) (millions) 1 Tokyo 35.53 Tokyo 36.40 Mumbai 42.40 Mumbai 57.86 Lagos 76.60 2 Mexico City 19.24 Mumbai 26.39 Delhi 36.16 Lagos 55.26 Dar es Salaam 73.68 3 Mumbai 18.84 Delhi 22.50 Dhaka 35.19 Kinshasa 54.51 Mumbai 67.24 4 New York 18.65 Dhaka 22.02 Kinshasa 35.00 Delhi 49.34 Kinshasa 63.05 5 São Paulo 18.61 Sao Paulo 21.43 Kolkata 33.04 Kolkata 45.09 Lilongwe 57.43 6 Delhi 16.00 Mexico City 21.01 Lagos 32.63 Karachi 43.37 Delhi 57.33 7 Calcutta 14.57 New York 20.63 Tokyo 32.62 Dhaka 42.45 Blantyre City 56.78 8 Jakarta 13.67 Kolkata 20.56 Karachi 31.70 Dar es Salaam 37.49 Khartoum 56.59 9 Buenos Aires 13.52 Shanghai 19.41 New York 24.77 Cairo 33.00 Niamey 55.24 10 Dhaka 13.09 Karachi 19.10 Mexico City 24.33 Manila 32.75 Kolkata 52.40 11 Shanghai 12.63 Kinshasa 16.76 Cairo 24.04 Kabul 32.67 Kabul 59.27 12 Los Angeles 12.22 Lagos 15.80 Manila 23.55 Khartoum 30.68 Karachi 49.06 13 Karachi 12.20 Cairo 15.56 Sao Paulo 22.83 Nairobi 28.42 Nairobi 46.66 14 Lagos 11.70 Manila 14.81 Shanghai 21.32 New York 27.19 N’Djamena 41.15 15 Rio de Janeiro 11.62 Beijing 14.55 Lahore 17.45 Tokyo 24.64 Cairo 40.54 16 Osaka-Kobe 11.32 Buenos Aires 13.77 Kabul 17.09 Baghdad 24.39 Manila 39.96 17 Cairo 11.29 Los Angeles 13.67 Los Angeles 16.42 Lahore 23.88 Dhaka 38.54 18 Beijing 10.85 Rio de Janeiro 13.41 Chennai 16.28 Addis Ababa 23.71 Mogadishu 36.37 19 Moscow 10.82 Jakarta 12.36 Khartoum 16.00 Mexico City 22.80 Addis Ababa 35.82 20 Manila 10.80 Istanbul 12.10 Dar es Salaam 15.97 Chennai 22.21 Lusaka 35.76 21 Istanbul 10.00 Guangzhou 11.84 Beijing 15.97 Bangalore 21.31 Baghdad 34.10 22 Paris 9.89 Osaka-Kobe 11.37 Jakarta 15.92 Niamey 20.37 Kampala 31.41 23 Seoul 9.52 Moscow 10.53 Bangalore 15.62 Kampala 20.23 New York 27.25 24 Tianjin 9.39 Lahore 10.51 Buenos Aires 15.55 Hyderabad 19.94 Lahore 27.01 25 Chicago 8.80 Shenzhen 10.20 Baghdad 15.09 Sao Paulo 19.73 Chennai 25.81 26 Lima 8.35 Chennai 10.13 Hyderabad 14.61 Los Angeles 18.02 Bangalore 24.77 27 Bogotá 7.80 Paris 10.04 Luanda 14.30 Kano 17.69 Kano 24.52 28 London 7.61 Chicago 9.93 Rio de Janeiro 14.29 Luanda 17.15 Hyderabad 23.17 29 Tehran 7.42 Tehran 9.81 Nairobi 14.25 Ahmedabad 16.96 Dakar 21.18 30 Hong Kong 7.28 Seoul 9.74 Istanbul 14.18 Sana'a 16.69 Ibadan 20.53 31 Chennai 7.04 Bangalore 9.72 Addis Ababa 13.21 Mogadishu 15.94 Maputo 20.39 32 Bangalore 6.75 Lima 9.60 Guangzhou 13.00 Buenos Aires 15.55 Sana’a 19.91 33 Bangkok 6.65 Bogota 9.60 Ahmedabad 12.43 Lilongwe 15.23 Ahmedabad 19.71

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34 Dortmund-Bochum 6.57 Wuhan 9.34 Chittagong 12.21 Blantyre City 15.06 Kigali 18.30 35 Lahore 6.57 Tianjin 9.24 Chicago 11.93 Jakarta 14.96 Los Angeles 18.06 36 Hyderabad 6.34 Hyderabad 9.09 Ho Chi Minh City 11.86 Pune 14.91 Bamako 17.85 37 Wuhan 6.18 London 8.62 Lima 11.57 Ibadan 14.81 Pune 17.32 38 Baghdad 6.06 Bangkok 8.33 Bogota 11.56 Chittagong 14.73 Mexico City 17.25 39 Kinshasa 5.89 Hong Kong 8.31 Shenzhen 11.20 Dakar 14.56 Abuja 16.28 40 Riyadh 5.76 Chongqing 8.28 Paris 11.12 Lusaka 14.52 Tokyo 15.54 41 Santiago 5.70 Luanda 8.24 Bangkok 11.08 N'Djamena 14.48 Antananarivo 15.45 42 Miami 5.48 Ho Chi Minh City 8.15 Tehran 11.00 Abidjan 14.27 Conakry 14.79 43 Belo Horizonte 5.45 Baghdad 8.06 Pune 10.92 Shanghai 14.17 Alexandria 14.73 44 Philadelphia 5.36 Khartoum 7.94 Abidjan 10.71 Bamako 13.54 Phnom Penh 14.60 45 St. Petersburg 5.35 Ahmedabad 7.74 Kano 10.44 Chicago 13.09 Surat 14.53 46 Ahmadabad 5.34 Chittagong 7.64 Wuhan 10.26 Bangkok 12.55 Abidjan 14.16 47 Madrid 5.17 Kabul 7.18 Moscow 10.24 Surat 12.51 Luanda 14.03 48 Toronto 5.16 Santiago (BR) 7.03 Osaka-Kobe 10.19 Antananarivo 12.40 Mombasa 14.01 49 Ho Chi Minh City 5.10 Pune 6.80 Tianjin 10.15 Rio de Janeiro 12.35 Sao Paulo 13.77 50 Chongqing 5.06 Hanoi 6.75 Sana'a 10.05 Ho Chi Minh City 12.32 Buenos Aires 13.75 51 Shenyang 4.94 Belo Horizonte 6.75 Hanoi 9.83 Alexandria 11.99 Chittagong 13.37 52 Dallas-Fort Worth 4.72 Santiago (CH) 6.31 London 9.75 Abuja 11.75 Chicago 13.12 53 Pune 4.67 Riyadh 6.28 Seoul 9.47 Ouagadougou 11.70 Ouagadougou 12.63 54 Khartoum 4.63 Miami 6.27 Hong Kong 9.47 Istanbul 11.56 Bangkok 12.14 55 Singapore 4.47 Dongguan 6.16 Kampala 9.43 Lima 11.35 Kanpur 11.73 56 Atlanta 4.47 Shenyang 6.16 Surat 9.17 Bogota 11.25 Kaduna 11.45 57 Sydney 4.45 Addis Ababa 6.16 Chongqing 9.09 Maputo 10.92 Lubumbashi 11.07 58 Barcelona 4.43 Philadelphia 6.13 Ibadan 8.75 Paris 10.87 Giza 11.01 59 Houston 4.39 Abidjan 6.03 Alexandria 8.73 Conakry 10.63 Faisalabad 11.00 60 Chittagong 4.37 Toronto 5.95 Dakar 8.52 Beijing 10.62 Jaipur 10.95 61 Boston 4.37 Madrid 5.94 Yangon 8.44 Tehran 10.36 Mbuji-Mayi 10.72 62 Washington 4.25 Nairobi 5.87 Riyadh 8.09 Hanoi 10.21 Jakarta 10.17 63 Hanoi 4.22 Yangon 5.87 Bamako 7.63 Kanpur 10.09 Monrovia 10.12 64 Yangon 4.18 Surat 5.70 Miami 7.53 London 10.09 Lucknow 10.05 65 Bandung 4.15 Dar es Salaam 5.69 Santiago (BR) 7.49 Kigali 9.79 Benin City 9.66 66 Detroit 3.99 Alexandria 5.65 Kanpur 7.39 Faisalabad 9.73 London 9.56 67 Jeddah 3.96 Dallas-Fort Worth 5.42 Philadelphia 7.36 Lubumbashi 9.57 Paris 9.33 68 Milan 3.96 Tlaquepaque 5.37 Antananarivo 7.26 Moskva 9.51 Nagpur 9.13 69 Guadalajara 3.95 Tonala 5.37 Belo Horizonte 7.19 Hong Kong 9.46 Ho Chi Minh City 9.05 70 Surat 3.90 Zapopan 5.37 Faisalabad 7.11 Jaipur 9.43 Lima 9.05 71 Guangzhou 3.88 Chengdu 5.32 Toronto 7.04 Yangon 9.37 Mosul 8.87 72 Pôrto Alegre 3.86 Xi'an, Shaanxi 5.23 Abuja 6.94 Mbuji-Mayi 9.27 Bogota 8.83 73 Casablanca 3.83 Barcelona 5.18 Jaipur 6.91 Giza 8.96 Rio de Janeiro 8.62 74 Alexandria 3.81 Atlanta 5.15 Ouagadougou 6.90 Phnom Penh 8.85 Moscow 8.43

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75 Frankfurt-Wiesbaden 3.73 Guiyang 5.11 Niamey 6.79 Lucknow 8.65 Al-Hudaydah 8.42 76 Melbourne 3.71 Singapore 5.10 Santiago (CH) 6.77 Guangzhou 8.64 Miami 8.29 77 Ankara 3.69 Kano 5.06 Dongguan 6.76 Mombasa 8.53 Lome 8.27 78 Abidjan 3.62 Houston 5.05 Shenyang 6.76 Miami 8.27 Hong Kong 8.27 79 Recife 3.59 Boston 5.03 Mogadishu 6.57 Kaduna 8.26 Patna 8.17 80 Monterrey 3.58 Guadalajara 4.97 Giza 6.52 Philadelphia 8.09 Tehran 8.17 81 Montréal 3.53 Guadalupe 4.95 Madrid 6.52 Accra 7.98 Accra 8.17 82 Chengdu 3.52 Washington DC 4.89 Dallas-Fort Worth 6.51 Nagpur 7.86 Port Harcourt 8.15 83 Phoenix-Mesa 3.51 Sydney 4.83 Lucknow 6.34 Riyadh 7.76 Philadelphia 8.10 84 Pusan 3.49 Nanjing 4.77 Tlaquepaque 6.22 Osaka-Kobe 7.69 Tashkent 8.10 85 Brasília 3.48 Haerbin 4.70 Tonala 6.22 Toronto 7.59 Yangon 8.02 86 Johannesburg 3.44 Porto Alegre 4.63 Zapopan 6.22 Seoul 7.52 Bat Dambang 7.98 87 Kabul 3.43 Detroit 4.61 Atlanta 6.19 Shenzhen 7.44 Ta’izz 7.92 88 Salvador 3.41 Kanpur 4.60 Lubumbashi 6.15 Lome 7.25 Rawalpindi 7.88 89 Algiers 3.37 Ankara 4.59 Conakry 6.14 Dallas-Fort Worth 7.14 Kathmandu 7.82 90 San Francisco-Oakland 3.36 Brasilia 4.58 Houston 6.06 Monrovia 7.08 Pikine 7.87 91 Düsseldorf-Essen 3.35 Algiers 4.50 Boston 6.04 Douala 7.07 Indore 7.66 92 Fortaleza 3.35 St. Petersburg 4.48 Mbuji-Mayi 5.95 Al-Hudaydah 7.06 Ogbomosho 7.64 93 Medellín 3.33 Monterrey 4.41 Accra 5.94 Patna 7.03 Douala 7.64 94 Berlin 3.33 Sana’a 4.38 Aleppo 5.90 Rawalpindi 6.97 Hanoi 7.50 95 Pyongyang 3.33 Recife 4.35 Washington DC 5.87 Benin City 6.97 Brazzaville 7.45 96 Caracas 3.30 Changchun 4.34 Chengdu 5.84 Aleppo 6.88 Toronto 7.44 97 Xian 3.28 Jaipur 4.30 Sydney 5.82 Wuhan 6.82 Al Qalyubiyah 7.24 98 Athens 3.25 Faisalabad 4.28 Guadalajara 5.76 Atlanta 6.79 Dushanbe 7.18 99 East Rand 3.23 Melbourne 4.24 Nagpur 5.76 Tianjin 6.75 Maiduguri 7.17 100 Cape Town 3.21 Ibadan 4.23 Xi'an 5.75 Houston 6.66 Dallas-Fort Worth 7.16 101 Dakar 4.23 Guadalupe 5.73 Ta'izz 6.64 Zaria 7.13 102 Barcelona 5.69 Boston 6.63 Seam Reab 7.09 103 Guiyang 5.62 Indore 6.59 Atlanta 6.81 104 Lusaka 5.60 Madrid 6.54 Houston 6.67 105 Detroit 5.53 Santiago 6.47 Boston 6.65 106 Maputo 5.49 Washington 6.45 Vadodara 6.61 107 N'Djamena 5.47 Mosul 6.35 Bhopal 6.51 108 Jiddah 5.40 Kumasi 6.29 Yaounde 6.50 109 Ankara 5.38 Belo Horizonte 6.21 Multan 6.48 110 Singapore 5.37 Damascus 6.21 Istanbul 6.48 111 Damascus 5.33 Kathmandu 6.10 Washington 6.46 112 Algiers 5.32 Detroit 6.07 Gujranwala 6.46 113 Nanjing 5.24 Chongqing 6.04 Kumasi 6.44 114 Phnom Penh 5.19 Santiago 6.04 Kananga 6.39 115 Douala 5.17 Yaounde 6.01 Coimbatore 6.38

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116 Haerbin 5.16 Tashkent 5.98 Aleppo 6.31 117 Patna 5.15 Sydney 5.97 Ludhiana 6.22 118 Melbourne 5.11 Kalyoubia 5.89 Hyderabad 6.22 119 Monterrey 5.11 Port Harcourt 5.88 Ilorin 6.19 120 Surabaya 5.10 Tlaquepaque 5.83 Erbil 6.14 121 Rawalpindi 5.09 Tonala 5.83 Nouakchott 6.09 122 Lome 5.05 Zapopan 5.83 Detroit 6.09 123 Multan 5.73 Agra 6.02 124 Brazzaville 5.72 Madrid 5.97 125 Tel Aviv-Yafo 5.71 Bobo Dioulasso 5.94 126 Barcelona 5.71 Tel Aviv-Yafo 5.84 127 Gujranwala 5.71 Visakhapatnam 5.75 128 Vadodara 5.68 Damascus 5.70 129 Bhopal 5.60 Kochi 5.69 130 Kananga 5.52 Bishkek 5.65 131 Ogbomosho 5.51 Nashik 5.64 132 Bobo Dioulasso 5.51 Peshawar 5.58 133 Hyderabad 5.50 Davao 5.57 134 Coimbatore 5.49 Shanghai 5.57 135 Guadalajara 5.40 Riyadh 5.48 136 Guadalupe 5.37 Matola 5.42 137 Phoenix-Mesa 5.36 Faridabad 5.38 138 Ludhiana 5.35 Basra 5.37 139 Pikine 5.29 Phoenix-Mesa 5.37 140 Montréal 5.24 Herat 5.33 141 Melbourne 5.24 Meerut 5.30 142 Agra 5.18 Dakahlia 5.30 143 Jiddah 5.18 Guatemala City 5.29 144 Maiduguri 5.17 Cotonou 5.23 145 Zaria 5.14 Barcelona 5.22 146 San Francisco-Oakland 5.14 Ghaziabad 5.21 147 Johannesburg 5.11 Sydney 5.19 148 Khulna 5.09 Adan 5.17 149 Casablanca 5.06 San Francisco-Oakland 5.15 150 Montréal 5.14 151 Varanasi 5.07 152 Beira 5.07 153 Asansol 5.06 154 Thiès 5.05 SUM 691.48 906.54 1367.86 1905.30 2393.40

286

Table A2: Cities with Population Projections above 5 Million in 2050

WUP SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Population Population Population Population City City City City (millions) (millions) (millions) (millions) 1 Mumbai 42.404 Mumbai 54.297 Mumbai 47.405 Lagos 37.540 2 Delhi 36.157 Delhi 46.027 Delhi 40.185 Mumbai 37.322 3 Dhaka 35.193 Dhaka 43.945 Dhaka 37.463 Mexico 34.316 4 Kinshasa 35.000 Kolkata 42.137 Karachi 36.977 Karachi 31.964 5 Kolkata 33.042 Karachi 39.328 Kolkata 36.789 Dhaka 31.815 6 Lagos 32.630 Tokyo 39.195 Lagos 36.317 Delhi 31.638 7 Tokyo 32.622 Kinshasa 34.414 Tokyo 35.070 Kolkata 28.964 8 Karachi 31.696 Lagos 34.299 Kinshasa 33.323 Sao Paulo 28.734 9 New York 24.769 Beijing 29.903 Mexico 29.772 Tokyo 27.046 10 Mexico City 24.329 Mexico 29.052 Cairo 27.900 Kinshasa 26.255 11 Cairo 24.035 Cairo 28.865 Beijing 27.270 Manila 25.357 12 Manila 23.545 New York 27.787 New York 26.965 Beijing 24.447 13 Sao Paulo 22.825 Manila 25.820 Manila 25.331 Cairo 23.075 14 Shanghai 21.317 Shanghai 24.076 Sao Paulo 25.313 Luanda 22.354 15 Lahore 17.449 Sao Paulo 23.294 Shanghai 21.956 New York 20.956 16 Kabul 17.091 Lahore 21.370 Lahore 20.092 Buenos Aires 20.860 17 Los Angeles 16.416 Chennai 20.448 Dar es Salaam 19.080 Shanghai 19.684 18 Chennai 16.278 Bangalore 19.555 Luanda 18.952 Rio de Janeiro 17.859 19 Khartoum 15.995 Jakarta 19.198 Buenos Aires 18.118 Lahore 17.368 20 Dar es Salaam 15.973 Dar es Salaam 19.013 Jakarta 18.027 Dar es Salaam 16.465 21 Beijing 15.972 Hyderabad 18.289 Chennai 17.852 Jakarta 15.576 22 Jakarta 15.924 Los Angeles 18.256 Los Angeles 17.716 Istanbul 15.564 23 Bangalore 15.620 Nairobi 18.161 Bangalore 17.073 Baghdad 15.440 24 Buenos Aires 15.546 Kabul 17.867 Khartoum 16.487 Lima 15.008 25 Baghdad 15.088 Luanda 16.986 Kabul 16.218 Nairobi 14.181 26 Hyderabad 14.612 Khartoum 16.919 Hyderabad 15.968 Chennai 14.055 27 Luanda 14.301 Addis Ababa 16.872 Istanbul 15.884 Bogota 14.026 28 Rio de Janeiro 14.287 Buenos Aires 16.411 Nairobi 15.784 Khartoum 13.920 29 Nairobi 14.246 Istanbul 15.866 Rio de Janeiro 15.733 Los Angeles 13.768 30 Istanbul 14.176 Ahmedabad 15.489 Baghdad 15.306 Kabul 13.565 31 Addis Ababa 13.212 Ho Chi Minh City 15.077 Lima 13.628 Bangalore 13.442 32 Guangzhou 12.996 Chittagong 14.886 Ahmedabad 13.523 Hyderabad 12.571 33 Ahmedabad 12.431 Rio de Janeiro 14.478 Bogota 13.150 Abidjan 12.093 34 Chittagong 12.212 Guangzhou 14.406 Guangzhou 13.137 Kano 12.048 35 Chicago 11.926 Bangkok 14.338 Addis Ababa 13.073 Tehran 11.981 36 Ho Chi Minh City 11.860 Baghdad 14.112 Ho Chi Minh City 12.905 Guangzhou 11.777 37 Lima 11.571 Pune 13.552 Chicago 12.776 Riyadh 11.670 38 Bogota 11.555 Chicago 13.165 Chittagong 12.690 Aleppo 10.855 39 Shenzhen 11.196 Kampala 12.922 Bangkok 12.480 Chittagong 10.777 40 Paris 11.124 Lima 12.907 Paris 12.295 Moscow 10.691 41 Bangkok 11.080 London 12.742 Tehran 12.203 Ahmedabad 10.647 42 Tehran 10.999 Paris 12.667 Abidjan 11.879 Addis Ababa 10.207 43 Pune 10.924 Hanoi 12.442 Pune 11.832 Paris 10.151 44 Abidjan 10.709 Bogota 12.441 Kano 11.656 Shenzhen 10.115 45 Kano 10.444 Shenzhen 12.373 London 11.498 Ibadan 10.067 46 Wuhan 10.255 Osaka-Kobe 12.311 Moscow 11.448 Ho Chi Minh City 10.040 47 Moscow 10.235 Tehran 12.273 Shenzhen 11.283 Chicago 9.929 48 Osaka-Kobe 10.188 Wuhan 11.501 Osaka-Kobe 11.015 Sana'a 9.782 49 Tianjin 10.150 Moscow 11.411 Riyadh 10.988 Wuhan 9.402 50 Sana'a 10.053 Tianjin 11.388 Sana'a 10.983 Bangkok 9.355 51 Hanoi 9.830 Hong Kong 11.313 Aleppo 10.866 Pune 9.316

287

52 London 9.750 Surat 11.291 Kampala 10.846 Tianjin 9.310 53 Seoul 9.469 Sana'a 11.160 Hanoi 10.650 Hong Kong 9.249 54 Hong Kong 9.467 Kano 11.008 Wuhan 10.488 Kampala 9.159 55 Kampala 9.432 Abidjan 10.961 Tianjin 10.385 Seoul 9.101 56 Surat 9.165 Aleppo 10.916 Hong Kong 10.317 London 8.983 57 Chongqing 9.087 Seoul 10.567 Seoul 10.092 Santiago 8.951 58 Ibadan 8.746 Alexandria 10.207 Dakar 9.922 Dakar 8.950 59 Alexandria 8.730 Chongqing 10.201 Alexandria 9.865 Belo Horizonte 8.718 60 Dakar 8.522 Yangon 10.129 Surat 9.858 Ouagadougou 8.607 61 Yangon 8.437 Riyadh 9.782 Ibadan 9.739 Osaka-Kobe 8.495 62 Riyadh 8.092 Dakar 9.198 Chongqing 9.303 Chongqing 8.340 63 Bamako 7.632 Ibadan 9.198 Yangon 8.965 Santiago 8.308 64 Miami 7.531 Kanpur 9.113 Ougadougou 8.719 Hanoi 8.286 65 Santiago 7.492 Antananarivo 8.627 Antananarivo 8.633 Alexandria 8.159 66 Kanpur 7.394 Ouagadougou 8.607 Toronto 8.135 Jiddah 7.784 67 Philadelphia 7.364 Faisalabad 8.536 Faisalabad 8.026 Surat 7.761 68 Antananarivo 7.258 Jaipur 8.483 Miami 7.982 Antananarivo 7.567 69 Belo Horizonte 7.188 Toronto 8.409 Kanpur 7.957 Tlaquepaque 7.565 70 Faisalabad 7.109 Miami 8.226 Lusaka 7.939 Tonala 7.565 71 Toronto 7.039 Niamey 8.128 Santiago 7.885 Zapopan 7.565 72 Abuja 6.937 Philadelphia 8.047 Philadelphia 7.809 Guadalajara 7.565 73 Jaipur 6.907 Lucknow 7.783 Bamako 7.791 Lusaka 7.508 74 Ouagadougou 6.897 Lusaka 7.722 Niiamey 7.681 Yangon 7.120 75 Niamey 6.788 Bamako 7.633 Belo Horizonte 7.680 Abuja 7.080 76 Santiago 6.772 Madrid 7.589 Santiago 7.641 Guadalupe 6.977 77 Dongguan 6.761 Shenyang 7.551 Jaipur 7.406 Monterrey 6.977 78 Shenyang 6.760 Dongguan 7.396 Jiddah 7.329 Bamako 6.942 79 Mogadishu 6.567 Santiago 7.257 Madrid 6.986 Faisalabad 6.938 80 Giza 6.524 Giza 7.208 Giza 6.967 Algiers 6.773 81 Madrid 6.519 Santiago 7.110 Shenyang 6.886 Damascus 6.525 82 Dallas-Fort Worth 6.507 Dallas-Fort Worth 7.082 Dallas-Fort Worth 6.873 Accra 6.510 83 Lucknow 6.338 Belo Horizonte 7.067 Abuja 6.850 Niamey 6.386 84 Tlaquepaque 6.217 Nagpur 7.063 Lucknow 6.795 Kanpur 6.264 85 Tonala 6.217 Sydney 6.765 Dongguan 6.744 Miami 6.203 86 Zapopan 6.217 Atlanta 6.711 Algiers 6.617 Shenyang 6.173 87 Atlanta 6.185 Barcelona 6.658 Sydney 6.583 Conakry 6.141 88 Lubumbashi 6.145 Houston 6.588 Tlaquepaque 6.563 Philadelphia 6.069 89 Conakry 6.141 Boston 6.570 Tonala 6.563 Dongguan 6.046 90 Houston 6.063 Damascus 6.562 Zapopan 6.563 Porto Alegre 6.010 91 Boston 6.042 Jiddah 6.525 Guadalajara 6.563 Port-au-Prince 5.995 92 Mbuji-Mayi 5.953 Chengdu 6.505 Damascus 6.532 Medellín 5.941 93 Accra 5.938 Abuja 6.469 Atlanta 6.512 Caracas 5.862 94 Aleppo 5.903 Tlaquepaque 6.405 Accra 6.420 Toronto 5.850 95 Washington 5.870 Tonala 6.405 Houston 6.393 Jaipur 5.831 96 Chengdu 5.842 Zapopan 6.405 Boston 6.376 Asuncion 5.811 97 Sydney 5.821 Guadalajara 6.405 Washington 6.192 Brasilia 5.778 98 Guadalajara 5.759 Washington 6.380 Nagpur 6.167 Giza 5.762 99 Nagpur 5.758 Xi'an 6.371 Conakry 6.141 Ankara 5.685 100 Xi'an 5.746 Patna 6.289 Barcelona 6.129 Recife 5.621 101 Guadalupe 5.733 Algiers 6.251 Guadalupe 6.053 Douala 5.606 102 Barcelona 5.693 Accra 6.211 Monterrey 6.053 Amman 5.548 103 Guiyang 5.616 Conakry 6.141 Chengdu 5.932 Kaduna 5.539 104 Lusaka 5.600 Rawalpindi 6.072 Melbourne 5.865 Maputo 5.424 105 Detroit 5.531 Guiyang 6.069 Detroit 5.830 Salvador 5.422 106 Maputo 5.486 Melbourne 6.028 Xi'an 5.810 Casablanca 5.391 107 N'Djamena 5.466 Detroit 6.007 Ankara 5.802 Kumasi 5.366 108 Jiddah 5.403 Surabaya 6.005 Singapore 5.765 Lucknow 5.349

288

109 Ankara 5.375 Guadalupe 5.907 Rawalpindi 5.709 Dallas-Fort Worth 5.341 110 Singapore 5.372 Monterrey 5.907 Lubumbashi 5.684 Chengdu 5.318 111 Damascus 5.330 Indore 5.886 Surabaya 5.639 Fortaleza 5.281 112 Algiers 5.321 Lubumbashi 5.870 Tel Aviv-Yafo 5.606 Xi'an 5.209 113 Nanjing 5.239 Nanjing 5.814 Medellín 5.570 Phnom Penh 5.189 114 Phnom Penh 5.189 Ankara 5.796 Maputo 5.558 Guayaquil 5.110 115 Douala 5.165 Tel Aviv-Yafo 5.744 Guiyang 5.535 116 Haerbin 5.157 Haerbin 5.723 Patna 5.491 117 Patna 5.154 Kigali 5.712 Mbuji-Mayi 5.481 118 Melbourne 5.111 Singapore 5.680 Montréal 5.468 119 Monterrey 5.110 Mbuji-Mayi 5.661 Douala 5.378 120 Surabaya 5.103 Montréal 5.653 Kaduna 5.359 121 Haiphong 5.609 Asuncion 5.304 122 Maputo 5.411 Nanjing 5.302 123 Casablanca 5.356 Porto Alegre 5.295 124 N'Djamena 5.347 Kumasi 5.291 125 Mombasa 5.319 Haerbin 5.219 126 Phoenix 5.270 Phnom Penh 5.189 127 Medellín 5.269 Casablanca 5.177 128 Phnom Penh 5.189 Port-au-Prince 5.156 129 Changchun 5.185 Indore 5.139 130 Asuncion 5.124 Phoenix 5.114 131 Douala 5.120 Johannesburg 5.104 132 Kumasi 5.120 133 Johannesburg 5.120 134 Dalian 5.085 135 Bandung 5.081 136 Port-au-Prince 5.075 137 Vadodara 5.072 138 Lilongwe 5.069 139 San Francisco-Oakland 5.065 140 Kaduna 5.061 141 Blantyre City 5.012 SUM 1,357.64 1,686.21 1,555.97 1,323.90

289

Table A3: Cities with Population Projections above 5 Million in 2100

WUP SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Population Population Population Population City City City City (millions) (millions) (millions) (millions) 1 Lagos 76.602 Lagos 61.032 Lagos 79.815 Lagos 100.191

2 Dar es Salaam 73.678 Mumbai 52.277 Dar es Salaam 62.269 Dar es Salaam 77.533

3 Mumbai 67.240 Kinshasa 48.832 Kinshasa 60.337 Luanda 69.240

4 Kinshasa 63.047 Karachi 44.434 Mumbai 57.657 Karachi 52.863

5 Lilongwe 57.433 Delhi 44.315 Karachi 49.921 Mumbai 52.572

6 Delhi 57.334 Dar es Salaam 43.163 Delhi 48.876 Kinshasa 50.826

7 Blantyre City 56.782 Dhaka 40.719 Kolkata 44.745 Mexico 46.533

8 Khartoum 56.594 Kolkata 40.570 Luanda 42.336 Dhaka 45.470

9 Niamey 55.244 Nairobi 33.921 Dhaka 42.263 Delhi 44.565

10 Kolkata 52.395 Kampala 33.051 Nairobi 38.399 Lusaka 40.862

11 Kabul 50.270 New York 32.733 Cairo 33.385 Kolkata 40.799

12 Karachi 49.056 Luanda 29.857 Niiamey 33.316 Nairobi 40.345

13 Nairobi 46.661 Cairo 28.561 Kampala 33.212 Manila 38.080

14 N'Djamena 41.145 Tokyo 27.470 Lusaka 32.513 Sao Paulo 34.717

15 Cairo 40.543 Manila 25.939 New York 30.805 Cairo 34.259

16 Manila 39.959 Kabul 24.164 Manila 30.284 Ouagadougou 33.776

17 Dhaka 38.539 Lahore 24.144 Mexico 28.681 Kano 32.156

18 Mogadishu 36.372 Addis Ababa 23.055 Khartoum 28.005 Buenos Aires 31.491

19 Addis Ababa 35.820 Niamey 22.951 Kabul 27.976 Khartoum 30.186

20 Lusaka 35.756 Khartoum 22.782 Lahore 27.126 Lahore 28.724

21 Baghdad 34.103 Mexico 22.510 Tokyo 25.794 Ibadan 26.867

22 Kampala 31.411 Lusaka 22.268 Kano 25.616 Sana'a 25.757

23 New York 27.252 Los Angeles 21.506 Ougadougou 24.770 Niamey 25.741

24 Lahore 27.006 Chennai 19.687 Addis Ababa 23.365 Kabul 25.191

25 Chennai 25.813 Kano 19.588 Sao Paulo 22.164 Antananarivo 25.069

26 Bangalore 24.768 Bangalore 18.828 Chennai 21.713 Baghdad 24.962

27 Kano 24.519 Hyderabad 17.609 Sana'a 21.681 Abidjan 24.789

28 Hyderabad 23.170 Beijing 17.274 Ibadan 21.403 Bogota 23.539

29 Dakar 21.178 Sana'a 17.269 Antananarivo 20.958 Dakar 21.786

30 Ibadan 20.533 Jakarta 17.153 Bangalore 20.765 Kampala 21.669

31 Maputo 20.386 Sao Paulo 16.923 Baghdad 20.657 Rio de Janeiro 21.578

32 Sana'a 19.908 Ibadan 16.366 Los Angeles 20.239 Jakarta 21.372

33 Ahmedabad 19.712 Baghdad 15.704 Buenos Aires 19.612 Beijing 20.642

34 Kigali 18.300 Chicago 15.509 Hyderabad 19.421 Bamako 20.408 Los Angeles-Long 35 18.063 Lilongwe 15.035 Lilongwe 19.253 Lima 20.405 Beach-Santa Ana 36 Bamako 17.847 Antananarivo 14.947 Blantyre City 19.035 Chennai 19.798

37 Pune 17.322 Ahmedabad 14.913 Bamako 19.016 Bangalore 18.934

38 Mexico City 17.249 Blantyre City 14.865 Beijing 18.771 Lilongwe 18.905

39 Abuja 16.284 Ouagadougou 14.818 Jakarta 18.609 Abuja 18.897

40 Tokyo 15.542 Conakry 14.790 Abidjan 18.536 Blantyre City 18.691

41 Antananarivo 15.452 Phnom Penh 14.597 Dakar 18.490 Hyderabad 17.708

290

42 Conakry 14.790 Buenos Aires 14.310 Ahmedabad 16.448 Riyadh 16.933

43 Alexandria 14.726 Ho Chi Minh City 13.916 Shanghai 15.113 Istanbul 16.672

44 Phnom Penh 14.597 Shanghai 13.909 Abuja 15.054 Shanghai 16.620

45 Surat 14.534 Bangkok 13.813 Bangkok 14.822 Aleppo 16.562

46 Abidjan 14.159 Chittagong 13.793 Conakry 14.790 Addis Ababa 16.431

47 Luanda 14.031 Paris 13.751 Istanbul 14.774 Chittagong 15.403

48 Mombasa 14.012 London 13.423 Bogota 14.636 New York 15.020

49 Sao Paulo 13.772 Abidjan 13.352 Phnom Penh 14.597 Huambo 15.008

50 Buenos Aires 13.752 Pune 13.048 Chicago 14.595 Ahmedabad 14.997

51 Chittagong 13.373 Bamako 12.866 Ho Chi Minh City 14.554 Conakry 14.790

52 Chicago 13.122 Dakar 12.509 Pune 14.391 Kaduna 14.784

53 Ouagadougou 12.628 Aleppo 12.295 Chittagong 14.316 Phnom Penh 14.597

54 Bangkok 12.138 Istanbul 12.273 Lima 14.158 Ho Chi Minh City 13.642

55 Kanpur 11.725 Abuja 11.511 Aleppo 13.900 Pune 13.122

56 Kaduna 11.445 Hanoi 11.485 Rio de Janeiro 13.776 Bangkok 12.875

57 Lubumbashi 11.070 Kigali 11.213 Paris 13.432 Bobo Dioulasso 12.685

58 Giza 11.005 Lima 10.994 Riyadh 13.162 Accra 12.467

59 Faisalabad 11.003 Bogota 10.973 Kigali 13.032 Benin City 12.339

60 Jaipur 10.953 Surat 10.871 London 12.053 Tokyo 12.276

61 Mbuji-Mayi 10.723 Rio de Janeiro 10.518 Hanoi 12.011 Alexandria 12.114

62 Jakarta 10.167 Alexandria 10.099 Surat 11.990 Mombasa 11.817

63 Monrovia 10.123 Riyadh 9.945 Alexandria 11.805 Maputo 11.562

64 Lucknow 10.051 Mombasa 9.935 Kaduna 11.777 Faisalabad 11.474

65 Benin City 9.655 Miami 9.690 Mombasa 11.247 Tehran 11.423

66 London 9.560 Yangon 9.678 N'Djamena 11.122 Jiddah 11.294

67 Paris 9.328 Faisalabad 9.645 Faisalabad 10.836 Hanoi 11.258

68 Nagpur 9.131 Philadelphia 9.479 Maputo 10.486 Moscow 11.101

69 Ho Chi Minh City 9.053 Toronto 9.287 Yangon 10.404 Surat 10.932

70 Lima 9.045 Tel Aviv-Yafo 9.061 Lubumbashi 10.292 Santiago (BR) 10.815

71 Mosul 8.873 Kaduna 9.006 Mbuji-Mayi 9.925 Port-au-Prince 10.574

72 Bogota 8.827 Kanpur 8.775 Moscow 9.870 Belo Horizonte 10.533

73 Rio de Janeiro 8.621 Osaka-Kobe 8.628 Benin City 9.830 Port Harcourt 10.463

74 Moscow 8.425 N'Djamena 8.449 Tehran 9.818 Al-Hudaydah 10.445

75 Al-Hudaydah 8.423 Dallas 8.343 Accra 9.813 Algiers 10.377

76 Miami 8.286 Lubumbashi 8.329 Kanpur 9.678 Kumasi 10.276

77 Lome 8.274 Guangzhou 8.322 Bobo Dioulasso 9.303 Tlaquepaque 10.259

78 Hong Kong 8.272 Tehran 8.241 Huambo 9.177 Tonala 10.259

79 Patna 8.173 Jaipur 8.168 Miami 9.119 Zapopan 10.259

80 Tehran 8.171 Mbuji-Mayi 8.032 Guangzhou 9.043 Guadalajara 10.259

81 Accra 8.168 Atlanta 7.905 Jaipur 9.008 Douala 9.991

82 Port Harcourt 8.147 Accra 7.849 Philadelphia 8.921 Medellín 9.970

83 Philadelphia 8.103 Houston 7.760 Toronto 8.911 Damascus 9.956

84 Tashkent 8.099 Boston 7.740 Al-Hudaydah 8.793 Guangzhou 9.944

85 Yangon 8.016 Moscow 7.671 Jiddah 8.779 Kigali 9.926

86 Bat Dambang 7.983 Benin City 7.516 Tel Aviv-Yafo 8.741 Ta'izz 9.907

291

87 Ta'izz 7.919 Washington 7.516 Damascus 8.355 Los Angeles 9.869

88 Rawalpindi 7.879 Maputo 7.503 Ta'izz 8.340 Yangon 9.865

89 Kathmandu 7.822 Lucknow 7.493 Giza 8.336 Ogbomosho 9.771

90 Pikine 7.687 Damascus 7.391 Port Harcourt 8.335 Santiago (CH) 9.673

91 Indore 7.658 Shenzhen 7.148 Lucknow 8.264 Brazzaville 9.580

92 Ogbomosho 7.638 Giza 7.132 Osaka-Kobe 8.102 Guatemala City 9.544

93 Douala 7.637 Detroit 7.077 Kumasi 8.088 Guadalupe 9.461

94 Hanoi 7.503 Sydney 7.051 Douala 8.043 Monterrey 9.461

95 Brazzaville 7.453 Al-Hudaydah 7.003 Algiers 8.030 N'Djamena 9.294

96 Toronto 7.444 Rawalpindi 6.860 Dallas-Fort Worth 7.851 Maiduguri 9.183

97 Kalyoubia 7.240 Nagpur 6.800 Ogbomosho 7.784 Asuncion 9.142

98 Dushanbe 7.182 Seoul 6.741 Shenzhen 7.767 Zaria 9.126

99 Maiduguri 7.172 Wuhan 6.644 Rawalpindi 7.707 Amman 9.033

100 Dallas-Fort Worth 7.159 Ta'izz 6.642 Nagpur 7.500 Kanpur 8.824

101 Zaria 7.129 Jiddah 6.634 Brazzaville 7.443 Lubumbashi 8.669

102 Seam Reab 7.085 Tianjin 6.579 Atlanta 7.439 Yaounde 8.614

103 Atlanta 6.805 Hong Kong 6.535 Maiduguri 7.316 Giza 8.555

104 Houston 6.670 Huambo 6.472 Houston 7.303 Shenzhen 8.541

105 Boston 6.648 Kumasi 6.470 Boston 7.284 Mbuji-Mayi 8.361

106 Vadodara 6.605 Port Harcourt 6.373 Zaria 7.270 Jaipur 8.214

107 Bhopal 6.506 Douala 6.361 Wuhan 7.219 Rawalpindi 8.161

108 Yaounde 6.498 Melbourne 6.283 Tianjin 7.148 Caracas 8.054

109 Multan 6.482 Montréal 6.243 Hong Kong 7.101 Wuhan 7.939

110 Istanbul 6.476 Phoenix 6.208 Washington 7.073 Ilorin 7.913

111 Washington 6.459 Kathmandu 6.089 Yaounde 6.934 Tianjin 7.861

112 Gujranwala 6.456 Patna 6.055 Santiago 6.905 Hong Kong 7.810

113 Kumasi 6.441 San Francisco-Oakland 5.967 Sydney 6.886 Lucknow 7.535

114 Kananga 6.387 Madrid 5.953 Santiago 6.776 Paris 7.482

115 Coimbatore 6.379 Ogbomosho 5.952 Belo Horizonte 6.724 Lome 7.269

116 Aleppo 6.311 Algiers 5.899 Patna 6.679 Porto Alegre 7.262

117 Ludhiana 6.218 Chongqing 5.893 Cotonou 6.663 Pikine 7.180

118 Hyderabad 6.217 Indore 5.667 Detroit 6.660 Guayaquil 7.139

119 Ilorin 6.193 Multan 5.617 Asuncion 6.592 Chicago 7.117

120 Erbil 6.135 Maiduguri 5.594 Lome 6.571 Chongqing 7.042

121 Nouakchott 6.087 Gujranwala 5.593 Port-au-Prince 6.512 Cotonou 7.036

122 Detroit 6.085 Bobo Dioulasso 5.565 Chongqing 6.404 Brasilia 6.982

123 Agra 6.024 Zaria 5.559 Tlaquepaque 6.323 Nagpur 6.839

124 Madrid 5.973 Yaounde 5.485 Tonala 6.323 Casablanca 6.798

125 Bobo Dioulasso 5.942 Asuncion 5.442 Zapopan 6.323 Recife 6.792

126 Tel Aviv-Yafo 5.842 Lome 5.386 Guadalajara 6.323 La Paz 6.752

127 Visakhapatnam 5.749 Hyderabad 5.382 Multan 6.311 Cali 6.728

128 Damascus 5.698 Surabaya 5.365 Ilorin 6.304 Surabaya 6.685

129 Kochi 5.688 Seattle 5.344 Seoul 6.302 Multan 6.683

130 Bishkek 5.648 Santiago 5.272 Gujranwala 6.284 Gujranwala 6.654

131 Nashik 5.640 Barcelona 5.222 Indore 6.251 London 6.616

292

132 Peshawar 5.575 Port-au-Prince 5.215 Kathmandu 6.222 Salvador 6.551

133 Davao 5.572 Santiago (CH) 5.188 Medellín 6.199 Adan 6.474

134 Shanghai 5.570 Haiphong 5.177 Melbourne 6.135 Santa Cruz 6.449

135 Riyadh 5.480 Belo Horizonte 5.134 Pikine 6.094 Hyderabad 6.403

136 Matola 5.416 San Diego 5.055 Hyderabad 6.047 Fortaleza 6.381

137 Faridabad 5.375 Brazzaville 5.031 Montréal 5.990 Homs 6.204

San Martín 138 Basra 5.374 Amman 5.881 Texmelucan 6.173

139 Phoenix-Mesa 5.366 Guatemala City 5.871 Puebla de Zaragoza 6.173

140 Herat 5.325 Kananga 5.859 Santo Domingo 6.168

141 Meerut 5.301 Phoenix 5.842 Johannesburg 6.168

142 Dakahlia 5.299 Guadalupe 5.831 Mosul 6.131

143 Guatemala City 5.288 Monterrey 5.831 Ankara 6.090

144 Cotonou 5.230 Surabaya 5.821 Patna 6.090

145 Barcelona 5.217 Madrid 5.664 Curitiba 5.886

146 Ghaziabad 5.214 Harare 5.651 Peshawar 5.731

147 Sydney 5.188 San Francisco-Oakland 5.616 Cape Town 5.723

148 Adan 5.165 Kalyoubia 5.484 Maracaibo 5.720

149 San Francisco-Oakland 5.150 Adan 5.450 Indore 5.699

150 Montréal 5.143 Haiphong 5.414 Bandung 5.656

151 Varanasi 5.074 Peshawar 5.412 Kalyoubia 5.628

152 Beira 5.068 Ankara 5.396 Hama 5.612

153 Asansol 5.059 Johannesburg 5.391 Tegucigalpa 5.557

154 Thiès 5.051 Vadodara 5.386 Barranquilla 5.395

155 Freetown 5.042 Bhopal 5.300 Campinas 5.324

156 Homs 5.207 Kathmandu 5.288

157 Coimbatore 5.199 Shenyang 5.213

158 Guayaquil 5.182 Tel Aviv-Yafo 5.183

159 Mosul 5.074 Makkah 5.182

160 Ludhiana 5.061 Al-Hasakeh 5.181

161 Caracas 5.037 Idleb 5.121

162 Seattle 5.029 Dongguan 5.105

163 Cape Town 5.002 Haiphong 5.075

164 Nouakchott 5.051

SUM 2,389.226 1,846.771 2,304.819 2,495.202

Values in Tables A1, A2 and A3 summarized in Hoornweg and Pope, 2014.

293

Appendix 4: World Urban Population Projections for Cities above 5 Million - The ‘Future Fives’

Table A4: Cities with Populations above 5 Million in 2006

1 Tokyo, Japan - 35,530,000 2 Mexico City, Mexico - 19,240,000 3 Mumbai, India - 18,840,000 4 New York City, USA - 18,650,000 5 Sao Paulo, Brazil - 18,610,000 6 Delhi, India - 16,000,000 7 Kolkata, India - 14,570,000 8 Jakarta, Indonesia - 13,670,000 9 Buenos Aires, Argentina - 13,520,000 10 Dhaka, Bangladesh - 13,090,000 11 Shanghai, China - 12,630,000 12 Los Angeles, USA - 12,220,000 13 Karachi, Pakistan - 12,200,000 14 Lagos, Nigeria - 11,700,000 15 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - 11,620,000 16 Osaka-Kobe, Japan - 11,320,000 17 Cairo, Egypt - 11,290,000 18 Beijing, China - 10,850,000 19 Moscow, Russian Federation - 10,820,000 20 Metro Manila, Philippines - 10,800,000 21 Istanbul, Turkey - 10,000,000 22 Paris, France 9,890,000 23 Seoul, South Korea - 9,520,000 24 Tianjin, China - 9,390,000 25 Chicago, USA - 8,800,000 26 Lima, Peru - 8,350,000 27 Bogota, Colombia - 7,800,000 28 London, UK - 7,610,000 29 Tehran, Iran - 7,420,000 30 Hong Kong, China - 7,280,000 31 Chennai, India - 7,040,000 32 Bangalore, India - 6,750,000 33 Bangkok, Thailand - 6,650,000 34 Dortmund-Bochum, Germany - 6,570,000 35 Lahore, Pakistan - 6,570,000 36 Hyderabad, India - 6,340,000 37 Wuhan, China - 6,180,000 38 Baghdad, Iraq - 6,060,000 39 Kinshasa, Dem. Rep. of Congo - 5,890,000 40 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - 5,760,000 41 Santiago, Chile - 5,700,000 42 Miami, USA - 5,480,000 43 Belo Horizonte, Brazil - 5,450,000 44 Philadelphia, USA - 5,360,000 45 St. Petersburg, Russian Federation - 5,350,000 46 Ahmedabad, India - 5,340,000 47 Madrid, Spain - 5,170,000 48 Toronto, Canada - 5,160,000 49 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam - 5,100,000 50 Chongqing, China - 5,060,000

294

Table A5: 2050 World Urban Population Projections for Cities above 5 Million – The ‘Future Fives’

1 Mumbai, India - 42,403,631 51 Hanoi, Vietnam - 9,829,976 2 Delhi, India - 36,156,789 52 London, UK - 9,749,547 3 Dhaka, Bangladesh - 35,193,184 53 Seoul, Republic of Korea - 9,468,812 4 Kinshasa, Dem. Rep. of Congo - 35,000,361 54 Hong Kong SAR, China - 9,466,652 5 Kolkata, India - 33,042,208 55 Kampala, Uganda - 9,432,027 6 Lagos, Nigeria - 32,629,709 56 Surat, India - 9,165,356 7 Tokyo, Japan - 32,621,993 57 Chongqing, China - 9,086,963 8 Karachi, Pakistan - 31,696,042 58 Ibadan, Nigeria - 8,746,150 9 New York City-Newark, USA - 24,768,743 59 Alexandria, Egypt - 8,729,875 10 Mexico City, Mexico - 24,328,738 60 Dakar, Senegal - 8,521,607 11 Cairo, Egypt - 24,034,957 61 Yangon, Myanmar - 8,437,4 12 Metro Manila, Philippines - 23,545,397 62 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - 8,091,763 13 Sao Paulo, Brazil - 22,824,800 63 Bamako, Mali - 7,632,368 14 Shanghai, China - 21,316,752 64 Miami, USA - 7,531,004 15 Lahore, Pakistan - 17,449,007 65 Santiago, Brazil - 7,491,949 16 Kabul, Afghanistan - 17,091,030 66 Kanpur, India - 7,394,319 17 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, USA - 16,416,436 67 Philadelphia, USA - 7,364,102 18 Chennai, India - 16,278,430 68 Antananarivo, Madagascar - 7,258,165 19 Khartoum, Sudan - 15,995,255 69 Belo Horizonte, Brazil - 7,187,873 20 Dar es Salaam, United Rep. of Tanzania - 15,973,084 70 Faisalabad (Lyallpur), Pakistan - 7,109,408 21 Beijing, China - 15,972,190 71 Toronto, Canada - 7,038,547 22 Jakarta, Indonesia - 15,923,577 72 Abuja, Nigeria - 6,936,602 23 Bangalore, India - 15,619,514 73 Jaipur, India - 6,907,364 24 Buenos Aires, Argentina - 15,546,223 74 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso - 6,897,323 25 Baghdad, Iraq - 15,087,672 75 Niamey, Niger - 6,787,896 26 Hyderabad, India - 14,611,856 76 Santiago, Chile - 6,771,630 27 Luanda, Angola - 14,301,327 77 Dongguan, Guangdong, China - 6,761,140 28 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - 14,287,336 78 Shenyang, China - 6,760,042 29 Nairobi, Kenya - 14,245,579 79 Mogadishu, Somalia - 6,566,689 30 Istanbul, Turkey - 14,175,543 80 Giza, Egypt - 6,524,083 31 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - 13,212,273 81 Madrid, Spain - 6,518,515 32 Guangzhou, China - 12,996,279 82 Dallas-Fort Worth, USA - 6,506,778 33 Ahmedabad, India - 12,431,006 83 Lucknow, India - 6,338,447 34 Chittagong, Bangladesh - 12,211,707 84 Tlaquepaque, Mexico - 6,216,670 35 Chicago, USA - 11,925,691 85 Tonala, Mexico - 6,216,670 36 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam - 11,860,301 86 Zapopan, Mexico - 6,216,670 37 Lima, Peru - 11,571,387 87 Atlanta, USA - 6,184,981 38 Bogota, D.C., Colombia - 11,555,257 88 Lubumbashi, Dem. Rep. of Congo - 6,145,213 39 Shenzhen, China - 11,196,456 89 Conakry, Guinea - 6,140,764 40 Paris, France - 11,124,389 90 Houston, USA - 6,062,506 41 Bangkok, Thailand - 11,079,598 91 Boston, USA - 6,042,094 42 Tehran, Iran - 10,998,668 92 Mbuji-Mayi, Dem. Rep. of Congo - 5,953,110 43 Pune, India - 10,923,535 93 Accra, Ghana - 5,937,942 44 Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire - 10,708,876 94 Aleppo, Syria - 5,903,179 45 Kano, Nigeria - 10,444,151 95 Washington, USA - 5,870,389 46 Wuhan, China - 10,255,365 96 Chengdu, China - 5,842,011 47 Moscow, Russian Federation - 10,235,265 97 Sydney, Australia - 5,820,569 48 Osaka-Kobe, Japan - 10,188,099 98 Guadalajara, Mexico - 5,758,809 49 Tianjin, China - 10,149,945 99 Nagpur, India - 5,758,280 50 Sana'a, Yemen - 10,052,562 100 Xi'an, China - 5,746,475

Table continued on following page…

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101 Guadalupe, Mexico - 5,733,177 102 Barcelona, Spain - 5,692,580 103 Guiyang, China - 5,615,798 104 Lusaka, Zambia - 5,600,496 105 Detroit, USA - 5,530,581 106 Maputo, Mozambique - 5,485,592 107 N'Djamena, Chad - 5,466,077 108 Jiddah, Saudi Arabia - 5,403,105 109 Ankara, Turkey - 5,375,274 110 Singapore, Singapore - 5,371,543 111 Damascus, Syria - 5,329,567 112 Algiers (El Djazair), Algeria - 5,321,303 113 Nanjing, China - 5,239,142 114 Phnom Penh, Cambodia - 5,189,194 115 Douala, Cameroon - 5,164,956 116 Haerbin, China - 5,156,783 117 Patna, India - 5,154,006 118 Melbourne, Australia - 5,111,390 119 Monterrey, Mexico - 5,110,320 120 Surabaya, Indonesia - 5,103,067 121 Rawalpindi, Pakistan - 5,090,954 122 Lome, Togo - 5,047,268

*Cities that had a population greater than 5 million in 2006 that are not projected to have a population greater than 5 million in 2050 include Dortmund-Bochum, Germany, and St. Petersburg, Russian Federation.

296

Table A6: The ‘Future Fives’ 2050

297

Table A7: 2100 World Urban Population Projections for Cities above 5 Million - The ‘Future Fives’

1 Lagos, Nigeria - 76,601,708 51 Chittagong, Bangladesh - 13,372,532 2 Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania - 73,678,022 52 Chicago, United States of America - 13,121,541 3 Mumbai, India - 67,239,804 53 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso - 12,627,729 4 Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo - 63,047,047 54 Bangkok, Thailand - 12,138,056 5 Lilongwe, Malawi - 57,432,623 55 Kanpur, India - 11,725,236 6 Delhi, India - 57,334,134 56 Kaduna, Nigeria - 11,444,672 7 Blantyre City, Malawi - 56,782,169 57 Lubumbashi, Democratic Rep. of the Congo - 11,069,530 8 Khartoum, Sudan - 56,594,472 58 Giza, Egypt - 11,004,914 9 Niamey, Niger - 55,244,441 59 Faisalabad, Pakistan - 11,003,142 10 Kolkata, India - 52,395,315 60 Jaipur, India - 10,953,067 11 Kabul, Afghanistan - 50,269,659 61 Mbuji-Mayi, Democratic Rep. of the Congo - 10,723,490 12 Karachi, Pakistan - 49,055,566 62 Jakarta, Indonesia - 10,166,556 13 Nairobi, Kenya - 46,661,254 63 Monrovia, Liberia - 10,123,069 14 N'Djamena, Chad - 41,144,668 64 Lucknow, India - 10,050,930 15 Cairo, Egypt - 40,542,502 65 Benin City, Nigeria - 9,655,229 16 Metro Manila, Philippines - 39,959,024 66 London, United Kingdom of Great Britain - 9,560,249 17 Dhaka, Bangladesh - 38,538,590 67 Paris, France - 9,327,845 18 Mogadishu, Somalia - 36,371,702 68 Nagpur, India - 9,130,954 19 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia - 35,820,348 69 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam - 9,052,902 20 Lusaka, Zambia - 35,755,940 70 Lima, Peru - 9,045,304 21 Baghdad, Iraq - 34,103,466 71 Mosul, Iraq - 8,872,825 22 Kampala, Uganda - 31,410,725 72 Bogota, D.C., Colombia - 8,826,636 23 New York City-Newark, USA - 27,252,430 73 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - 8,620,551 24 Lahore, Pakistan - 27,005,610 74 Moscow, Russian Federation - 8,424,885 25 Chennai, India - 25,812,847 75 Al-Hudaydah, Yemen - 8,422,800 26 Bangalore, India - 24,767,999 76 Miami, United States of America - 8,286,176 27 Kano, Nigeria - 24,518,754 77 Lome, Togo - 8,274,093 28 Hyderabad, India - 23,170,146 78 Hong Kong, China - 8,272,114 29 Dakar, Senegal - 21,177,983 79 Patna, India - 8,172,752 30 Ibadan, Nigeria - 20,532,517 80 Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic of) - 8,171,322 31 Maputo, Mozambique - 20,385,799 81 Accra, Ghana - 8,168,202 32 Sana'a, Yemen - 19,907,611 82 Port Harcourt, Nigeria - 8,147,054 33 Ahmedabad, India - 19,711,953 83 Philadelphia, United States of America - 8,102,538 34 Kigali, Rwanda - 18,300,407 84 Tashkent, Uzbekistan - 8,099,133 35 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, USA - 18,062,596 85 Yangon, Myanmar - 8,016,296 36 Bamako, Mali - 17,847,000 86 Bat Dambang, Cambodia - 7,982,593 37 Pune, India - 17,321,544 87 Ta'izz, Yemen - 7,918,523 38 Mexico City, Mexico - 17,248,680 88 Rawalpindi, Pakistan - 7,879,205 39 Abuja, Nigeria - 16,284,410 89 Kathmandu, Nepal - 7,821,578 40 Tokyo, Japan - 15,541,760 90 Pikine, Senegal - 7,686,995 41 Antananarivo, Madagascar - 15,451,871 91 Indore, India - 7,657,973 42 Conakry, Guinea - 14,790,212 92 Ogbomosho, Nigeria - 7,637,863 43 Alexandria, Egypt - 14,725,675 93 Douala, Cameroon - 7,637,290 44 Phnom Penh, Cambodia - 14,597,292 94 Hanoi, Vietnam - 7,503,166 45 Surat, India - 14,533,584 95 Brazzaville, Democratic Republic of Congo - 7,453,022 46 Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire - 14,158,635 96 Toronto, Canada - 7,444,364 47 Luanda, Angola - 14,030,751 97 Al Qalyubiyah, Egypt - 7,239,669 48 Mombasa, Kenya - 14,011,887 98 Dushanbe, Tajikistan - 7,181,509 49 Sao Paulo, Brazil - 13,771,800 99 Maiduguri, Nigeria - 7,172,317 50 Buenos Aires, Argentina - 13,752,126 100 Dallas-Fort Worth, USA - 7,159,246

Table continued on following page…

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101 Zaria, Nigeria - 7,128,673 151 Varanasi, India - 5,073,885 102 Seam Reab, Cambodia - 7,085,059 152 Beira, Mozambique - 5,067,830 103 Atlanta, United States of America - 6,805,181 153 Asansol, India - 5,058,594 104 Houston, United States of America - 6,670,425 154 Thiès, Senegal - 5,050,666 105 Boston, United States of America - 6,647,965 155 Freetown, Sierra Leone - 5,042,107 106 Vadodara, India - 6,605,479 107 Bhopal, India - 6,506,091 108 Yaounde, Cameroon - 6,497,815 109 Multan, Pakistan - 6,481,655 110 Istanbul, Turkey - 6,476,175 111 Washington D.C., USA - 6,459,043 112 Gujranwala, Pakistan - 6,455,964 113 Kumasi, Ghana - 6,441,335 114 Kananga, Democratic Republic of Congo - 6,386,701 115 Coimbatore, India - 6,378,671 116 Aleppo, Syrian Arab Republic - 6,311,201 117 Ludhiana, India - 6,218,121 118 Hyderabad, Pakistan - 6,217,045 119 Ilorin, Nigeria - 6,192,731 120 Erbil, Iraq - 6,135,239 121 Nouakchott, Mauritania - 6,086,795 122 Detroit, United States of America - 6,085,161 123 Agra, India - 6,024,442 124 Madrid, Spain - 5,973,413 125 Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso - 5,942,482 126 Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel - 5,842,405 127 Visakhapatnam, India - 5,749,214 128 Damascus, Syrian Arab Republic - 5,697,942 129 Kochi, India - 5,688,052 130 Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan - 5,647,946 131 Nashik, India - 5,639,632 132 Peshawar, Pakistan - 5,574,788 133 Davao, Philippines - 5,572,352 134 Shanghai, China - 5,570,397 135 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia - 5,479,598 136 Matola, Mozambique - 5,415,923 137 Faridabad, India - 5,374,597 138 Basra, Iraq - 5,373,623 139 Phoenix-Mesa, United States of America - 5,366,462 140 Herat, Afghanistan - 5,325,488 141 Meerut, India - 5,300,693 142 Dakahlia, Egypt - 5,299,332 143 Guatemala City, Guatemala - 5,287,833 144 Cotonou, Benin - 5,230,149 145 Barcelona, Spain - 5,216,546 146 Ghaziabad, India - 5,214,047 147 Sydney, Australia - 5,188,138 148 Aden, Yemen - 5,165,314 149 San Francisco-Oakland, USA - 5,149,795 150 Montréal, Canada - 5,143,197

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Table A8: The ‘Future Fives’ 2100

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Appendix 5: Characteristics of Complex Systems

How Complex Systems Fail

i. Complex systems are intrinsically hazardous systems ii. Complex systems are heavily and successfully defended iii. Catastrophe requires multiple failures – single point failure are not enough iv. Complex systems contain changing mixtures of failures latent within them v. Complex systems run in degraded mode vi. Catastrophe is always just around the corner vii. Post-accident attribution to a ‘root cause’ is fundamentally wrong viii. Hindsight biases post-accident assessments of human performance ix. Human operators have dual roles: as producers and as defenders against failure x. All practitioner actions are gambles xi. Actions at the sharp end resolve all ambiguity xii. Human practitioners are the adaptable element of complex systems xiii. Human expertise in complex systems is constantly changing xiv. Change introduces new forms of failure xv. Views of ‘cause’ limit the effectiveness of defenses against future events xvi. Safety is a characteristic of systems and not of their components xvii. People continuously create safety xviii. Failure free operations require experience with failure

From: How Complex Systems Fail (1998) Being a Short Treatise on the Nature of Failure; How Failure is Evaluated; How Failure is Attributed to Proximate Cause; and the Resulting New Understanding of Patient Safety. Richard I. Cook, MD, Cognitive technologies Laboratory, University of Chicago

Leverage Points – Places to Intervene in a Complex System

i. Numbers – Constants and parameters such as subsidies, taxes, standards ii. Buffers – The size of stabilizing stocks relative to their flows iii. Stock-and-Flow Structures – Physical systems and their nodes of intersection iv. Delays – The lengths of time relative to the rates of system changes v. Balancing Feedback Loops – The strength of the feedbacks relative to the impacts they are trying to correct vi. Reinforcing Feedback Loops – The strength of the gain of driving loops vii. Information Flows –The structure of who does and does not have access to information viii. Rules – Incentives, punishments, constraints ix. Self-Organization – The power to add, change, or evolve system structure x. Goals – The purpose or function of the system xi. Paradigms – The mind-set out of which the system – its goals, structure, rules delays, parameters – arises xii. Transcending Paradigms

From: Thinking in Systems: A Primer, Meadows (2008)

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Appendix 6: Elinor Ostrom, June 12, 2012 - Green from the Grassroots

BLOOMINGTON – Much is riding on the United Nations Rio+20 summit. Many are billing it as Plan A for Planet Earth and want leaders bound to a single international agreement to protect our life-support system and prevent a global humanitarian crisis.

Inaction in Rio would be disastrous, but a single international agreement would be a grave mistake. We cannot rely on singular global policies to solve the problem of managing our common resources: the oceans, atmosphere, forests, waterways, and rich diversity of life that combine to create the right conditions for life, including seven billion humans, to thrive. We have never had to deal with problems of the scale facing today’s globally interconnected society. No one knows for sure what will work, so it is important to build a system that can evolve and adapt rapidly.

Decades of research demonstrate that a variety of overlapping policies at city, subnational, national, and international levels is more likely to succeed than are single, overarching binding agreements. Such an evolutionary approach to policy provides essential safety nets should one or more policies fail.

The good news is that evolutionary policymaking is already happening organically. In the absence of effective national and international legislation to curb greenhouse gases, a growing number of city leaders are acting to protect their citizens and economies. This is hardly surprising – indeed, it should be encouraged.

Most major cities sit on coasts, straddle rivers, or lie on vulnerable deltas, putting them on the front line of rising sea levels and flooding in the coming decades. Adaptation is a necessity. But, with cities responsible for 70% of global greenhouse-gas emissions, mitigation is better. When it comes to tackling climate change, the United States has produced no federal mandate explicitly requiring or even promoting emissions-reductions targets. But, by May last year, some 30 US states had developed their own climate action plans, and more than 900 US cities have signed up to the US climate-protection agreement.

This grassroots diversity in “green policymaking” makes economic sense. “Sustainable cities” attract the creative, educated people who want to live in a pollution-free, modern urban environment that suits their lifestyles. This is where future growth lies. Like upgrading a mobile phone, when people see the benefits, they will discard old models in a flash. Of course, true sustainability goes further than pollution control. City planners must look beyond municipal limits and analyze flows of resources – energy, food, water, and people – into and out of their cities.

Worldwide, we are seeing a heterogeneous collection of cities interacting in a way that could have far-reaching influence on how Earth’s entire life-support system evolves. These cities are learning from one another, building on good ideas and jettisoning poorer ones. Los Angeles took decades to implement pollution controls, but other cities, like Beijing, converted rapidly when they saw the benefits. In the coming decades, we may see a global system of interconnected sustainable cities emerging. If successful, everyone will want to join the club.

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Fundamentally, this is the right approach for managing systemic risk and change in complex interconnected systems, and for successfully managing common resources – though it has yet to dent the inexorable rise in global greenhouse-gas emissions.

Rio+20 has come at a crucial juncture and is undoubtedly important. For 20 years, sustainable development has been viewed as an ideal toward which to aim. But the first State of the Planet Declaration, published at the recent mammoth science gathering Planet Under Pressure, made it clear that sustainability is now a prerequisite for all future development. Sustainability at local and national levels must add up to global sustainability. This idea must form the bedrock of national economies and constitute the fabric of our societies.

The goal now must be to build sustainability into the DNA of our globally interconnected society. Time is the natural resource in shortest supply, which is why the Rio summit must galvanize the world. What we need are universal sustainable development goals on issues such as energy, food security, sanitation, urban planning, and poverty eradication, while reducing inequality within the planet’s limits.

As an approach to dealing with global issues, the UN Millennium Development Goals have succeeded where other initiatives have failed. Though not all MDGs will be met by the target date of 2015, we can learn a great deal from the experience.

Setting goals can overcome inertia, but everyone must have a stake in establishing them: countries, states, cities, organizations, companies, and people everywhere. Success will hinge on developing many overlapping policies to achieve the goals.

We have a decade to act before the economic cost of current viable solutions becomes too high. Without action, we risk catastrophic and perhaps irreversible changes to our life-support system.

Our primary goal must be to take planetary responsibility for this risk, rather than placing in jeopardy the welfare of future generations.

Elinor Ostrom passed away on June 12, 2012, the day this column appeared.

This column was produced within the framework of the EC-funded “V4Aid” project. The views expressed do not necessarily represent the view of the EU. Read more at https://www.project- syndicate.org/commentary/green-from-the-grassroots#LfIxrbSgDt3u5ppe.99

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Appendix 7: Why a City’s Not a Country

World Bank Sustainable Cities Blog, 28 Nov, 2012 (by Author)

We all have the currency of a country or two in our wallets; maybe a passport too. We can be brought to tears when we see ‘our’ flag unfurled at the Olympics or a World Cup. Sure there are great sporting rivalries between cities like Milan and Barcelona, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, and (in that other football) Dallas vs. Washington. But its countries that need flags and currencies, languages and laws, to inspire passion and fidelity. Running a country is about protecting an idea, an ideal, and a dream. Psychologically and physically countries have borders – barriers to entry and exit; people, ideas, money – it all needs to be controlled by a national authority.

Cities are different. Cities are anchored to a specific place. A sheltered port, the mouth of a river, a fertile valley, or a strategic vantage point: cities emerge where geography and opportunity combine. Much has been written on the creative class – that fickle, mobile group of professionals wandering the planet looking for their next engagement. City officials may actively seek them, but far more important are those people willing to stay and fight for their city. With links and roots like children, mortgages, and history, people who feel they belong are the foundation of every city.

Country officials may argue that cities enjoy the ‘umbrella of security’ a nation provides. Maybe, but it’s also fair to say a country’s minister of finance is most beholding to the treasure and trust of the cities in her country, or the buying habits of cities in other countries. Historically countries exist because a few cities got together and said, ‘Let’s create a country over this geography,’ maybe with the middle step of a state or province. Soon, more and more cities will get together and say, ‘Let’s figure out how to cooperate so as to keep the planet hospitable for our cities.’

Cities are where most of us live. Our querencias are in our cities – home plus more. The places where we are anchored, from where we face the winds of fortune, and increasingly from where we shape those same winds and events. True, you can have several cities that you call home, a bit like the dual passport holder, but sooner or later, if you want to make a difference, you will need to pick a city in which to take a stand.

Being the mayor of a city is fundamentally different than being a national president or prime minister. For a mayor the big picture is made up of a multitude of ‘little things.’ The mayor cannot move her city, she (or he) cannot balance things across her geography, and she has only one geography, one place, and arguably one chance.

As many mistakes are made in cities as anywhere else, probably more. But the mistakes are usually far more visible; an ‘expressway’ in the wrong place or a sixth ring road, condos obscuring the waterfront, isolated buildings, sprawl. In a city you build atop your ruins. You can’t move away. During the next 30 years new cities for another 2.5 billion people will be built. Very few new countries are likely to be built during this time, and if they are, they will likely be from failures of today’s nations. This may be unfortunate but not critical to the planet’s future. In the next three decades, cities on the other hand need to be built and re-built with very few mistakes. A city is not a country because increasingly a city’s mistakes matter more.

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Appendix 8: Physical Science and Socio-Economic Indicators for Toronto, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Mumbai and Dakar Table A9: Physical Science Indicators for Toronto, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Mumbai and Dakar

Cities Physical Science Indicators1 Unit Global Toronto Sao Paulo Shanghai Mumbai Dakar Average2

Carbon Dioxide Emission

3 GHG emissions per capita (tCO2/cap/year) 4.71 6 11.5 [47] 1.5 [7] 11.7 [7] 2.7 1 Rate of Biodiversity Loss Ecological footprint (Global hectares demanded per capita) ha 1.7 2.8 6.5 3 2.1 1.1 1.5 Index of biodiversity impact 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.5 3 2.3 Fresh Water Use Total per capita water consumption L/cap/day 100 267 431 [48] 175 [7] 411 [7] 250 [7] 69 [49] Percent of city with potable water supply % 81 95 100 [48] 92 [7] 98 [7] 96 [7] 90 [49] Index of embodied water consumption 2.4 3.5 2.5 3 2 1 Change In Land Use Local land use change % of cropland area 11.7 31 39 [50] 24 30 [51] 42 19.5 [52] Population density person/km2 3500 2927 850 [50] 2503 [7] 2902 [7] 4225 [7] 4122[46] Index of global land use impact 2.4 3.5 2.5 3 2 1 Nitrogen Cycle Per capita as % of global values based on estimated consumption kg-N /cap/year 18 23 36 25 29 21 6 patterns 2 Chemical Pollution Percentage of city population with regular solid waste collection % 50 76 100 90 [7] 82 [7] 32.8 [7] 75 [53] Percentage of city population served by wastewater collection % 76 76 100 99 [7] 73 [7] 42 [7] 64 [54]

3 PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m 20 82 18.7 [55] 28 [56] 81 202 [7] 81 [57] Geophysical Risk Number of natural disaster related deaths per 100,000 pop. 0.134 0.2 0.01 0.05 [44] 0.064 [23] 0.35 [58] 0.46 [23] Percentage of GDP loss due to natural disasters % 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.37 1 [59] Resilience of city 57 57 100 51 52 44 37 1Data highlighted in grey are estimates. 2Average of the 5 major cities. 3Based on Senegal’s urban GHG emissions. 4China, 2011. 5State of Maharashtra, 2012. 6Senegal, 52 deaths in 2012. 7Country scale

305

Table A10: Socio-Economic Indicators for Toronto, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Mumbai and Dakar

Indicators GTA SPMR Shanghai MMR Dakar Youth Opportunity Under 5 mortality 6.41 [60] 22[61] 1.1[7] 40 [62] 53 Gender equity 0.74 0.37 0.81 [63] 0.7 [62] 0.44 Percentage of female in schools 0.91 [64] 95 97.3 87.15 68 Youth unemployment rate 18.1[65] 17.7 [66] 0.68 [67] 11 14.8 [5] Average life expectancy 80 69 82 68 [7] 61 [5] Economy Unemployment rate 8.6 [68] 5.2 [69] 4.2 [7] 11.7 30 Gini Coefficient 0.33 [70] 0.61 [71] 0.45 [7] 0.35 [7] 0.39 Percentage of population living in slums 0 20 [72] 31 [72] 37.7 35 [53] GDP 51300 22700 [7] 19100 [7] 6700 3700 Energy Access and Intensity Percentage of city with authorized electrical 100 99.9[7] 99 [7] 95 [7] 96 [53] service Percentage of city with access to clean energy 100 99 99 68.6 90 for cooking Energy Intensity 24.6 [73] 5 [7] 14.8 [7] 6.5 [7] 10.2 Mobility and Connectivity Number of personal automobiles per capita 0.61 0.31 [7] 0.13[74] 0.036 [7] 0.017 Daily number of public transport trips per 0.25 [75] 0.9 0.83 0.63 0.5 capita Number of internet connections 83b 50 63.1 65 53 Percentage of commuters using a travel mode 23 [76] 71 78 [7] 94 88 other than a personal vehicle to work Transportation fatalities 2.5 [77] 7.8 6.3 34.2 17.2 Commercial air connectivity Institutions Ease of Doing Business – World Bank 19 116 96 134 178 (downscaled from country to city level)b Number of convictions for corruption by city 81 42 40 36 41 officialsb Tax collected as a percent of tax billed Debt service ratio Basic Services Percentage of population with regular solid 100 90[7] 82.3 [7] 32.8 [7] 75 [53] waste collection Percentage of city population served by 100 99.1 [7] 72.5 [7] 42 [7] 64 [54] wastewater collection Percentage of population served with potable 100 92 [7] 98 [7] 96 97 [54] water supply Security and Public Safety Number of fire related deaths 0.44[78] 0.5 0.3 [79] 1.65 [58] 3.2 [80] Number of homicides 2 [81] 64.8 [71] 1.4 [7] 1.2 [38] 8.7 [72] Violent crime rate aInfant mortality rate. bCountry level

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Appendix 9: Equations

Equations used to derive the physical and socio-economic indicators are presented below; assuming equal weight for each measure. As units of the measurement are different, and they are compared with the global average values, Eq. 1 is used to scale each measure to the corresponding value for the average global value.

Scaled measure = (D-1) City value−global value global value The scaled measures are used in the following equations:

Carbon Dioxide Emission = GHG emissions per capita (D-2)

( ) ( ) Rate of Biodiversity Loss = (D-3) Ecological footprint + Index of biodiversity impact 2 ( ) ( ) % Fresh Water Use = 1 (D-4) Per captia consumption +� of pop with access to potable water supply�+ Index of embodied water consumption 3 ( ) ( ) . Change in Land Use = 1 (D-5) Local land use change +�pop density�+ Index of global land use impact Nitrogen Cycle = Per capita Nitrogen consumption 3 (D-6)

( . ) % . # Chemical Pollution = 1 1 (D-7) � of pop with access to solid waste collection�+� of pop with access to wastewater collection�+ PM 2 5 3 ( ) (% )

Geophysical Risk = 1 (D-8) #of natural disaster related deaths + of GDP loss due to natural disasters +�Reslience of city� 3 ( ) ( ) % Youth Opportunity = 1 1 1 (D-9) Under 5 mortality +�Gender equity�+� of females in school�+ Youth Unemployent +�Average life expectancy� 5 ( ) ( ) ( ) Economy = 1 (D-10) Unemployment rate + Gini coefficient + Slum population +�GDP� 4

307

Energy Access = 1 1 1 (D-11) �Access to clean cooking energy�+�Access to electricity�+�Energy intensity� 3 # # # 1 1 1 ( ) � of cars per% capita �+� of public transit trips per capita�+� of internet connections�+ Mobility and Connectivity = 1 (D-12) � of commuters using public transit�+ Transportation fatalities 5

Institutions = 1 1 (D-13) �Ease of doing busines�+�Corruption� 2 % . % 1 1 � of pop with access to solid% waste collection �+ � of pop with access to wastewater collection� Basic Services = 1 (D-14) +� of pop with access to potable water supply�

( ) ( ) 3 Institutions = (D-15) #of fire related deaths + #of homicides 2

Equations to calculate Sustainability Potential per year and Cost per Unit Sustainability

= + (D-16)

𝑖𝑖 𝑗𝑗 ‘i’𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑆𝑆and𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 ‘j’ 𝑆𝑆refer𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 to𝐹𝐹 the𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 16 and∑ 28𝑐𝑐ℎ 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎measures𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑝𝑝 inℎ𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦 physical𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 and socioeconomic𝑐𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑎𝑎limits,𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 respectively𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙

= × ( . ) × ( ) (D-17) 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 �2050−𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶&𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌� 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦 = (D-18 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶+𝑂𝑂 𝑀𝑀−𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤ℎ 50% 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹

308

Appendix 10: Changes in Physical and Socio-Economic Indicators due to the Proposed Transportation Plans - Toronto Table A11: Physical Science Indicators (1) – Transportation Projects of Toronto

90 Min Transfer 407 Extension Union Pearson Richmond Hill Sub DRL Pape-St Pickering Express Andrew Airport Physical Science Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Carbon Dioxide Emission

GHG emissions per capita (tCO2/cap. year) 11.5 -0.020 0.175 0.007 -0.059 -0.001 0.011 -0.002 0.020 -0.003 0.022 0.007 -0.057 Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global Ha Ecological Footprint 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 demand/capita Index of biodiversity impact 2.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fresh Water Use Total per capita water consumption lit/cap. day 430.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percent of city with portable water supply % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Index of embodied water consumption 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change In Land Use Local land use change % of cropland area 39 -0.001 0.003 0.002 -0.005 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 0.001 -0.003 Population density person/km2 884 10.00 1.13 -0.60 -0.07 0.60 0.07 5.00 0.57 5.36 0.61 3.26 -0.37 Index of global land use impact 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nitrogen and Phosphorous Cycle Per capita values as percent of global values kg-N2/cap. year 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 based on estimated consumption patterns Chemical Pollution Percentage of city population with % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 regular solid waste collection

Percentage of city population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m3 18.66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Geophysical Risk

Number of natural disaster per 100,000 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 related deaths population

Percentage of GDP loss due to % 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 natural disasters Resilience of city 88 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001

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Table A12: Physical Science Indicators (2) - Transportation Projects of Toronto

Durham Viva Rapid Ways Go Electric Sub Modernization Subway to Vaughn Mississauga 403 Scarborough Physical Science Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Carbon Dioxide Emission

GHG emissions per capita (tCO2/cap. year) 11.5 -0.002 0.013 -0.001 0.008 -0.030 0.263 -0.008 0.070 -0.002 0.021 -0.003 0.025

Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global Ha Ecological Footprint 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 demand/capita Index of biodiversity impact 2.8

Fresh Water Use

Total per capita water consumption lit/cap. day 430.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percent of city with portable water supply % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index of embodied water consumption 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Change In Land Use

Local land use change % of cropland area 39 -0.001 0.003 0.002 -0.005 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 0.001 -0.003

Population density person/km2 884 0.77 0.087 0.46 0.052 15 1.7 4.0 0.45 1.2 0.12 1.4 -0.16

Index of global land use impact 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nitrogen and Phosphorous Cycle

Per capita values as percent of global values kg-N2/cap. year 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 based on estimated consumption patterns

Chemical Pollution

Percentage of city population with % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 regular solid waste collection

Percentage of city population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection

PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m3 18.66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Geophysical Risk

Number of natural disaster per 100,000 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 related deaths population

Percentage of GDP loss due to % 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 natural disasters

Resilience of city 88 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001

310

Table A13: Physical Science Indicators (3) – Transportation Projects of Toronto

Mississauga Eglinton Cross DRL Don Mills Go Relief Danforth Go Relief Kennedy Go Relief Kipling Dundas BRT Physical Science Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Carbon Dioxide Emission

GHG emissions per capita (tCO2/cap. year) 11.5 -0.009 0.077 -0.009 0.077 -0.001 0.011 -0.001 0.011 -0.010 0.088 -0.011 0.094

Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global Ha Ecological Footprint 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 demand/capita Index of biodiversity impact 2.8 0

Fresh Water Use

Total per capita water consumption lit/cap. day 430.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percent of city with portable water supply % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index of embodied water consumption 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Change In Land Use

Local land use change % of cropland area 39 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003

Population density person/km2 884 4.400 0.498 4.4 0.50 15.0 -1.7 1.1 0.13 0.50 0.057 0.13 0.014

Index of global land use impact 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nitrogen and Phosphorous Cycle

Per capita values as percent of global values kg-N2/cap. year 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 based on estimated consumption patterns

Chemical Pollution

Percentage of city population with % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 regular solid waste collection

Percentage of city population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection

PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m3 18.66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Geophysical Risk

Number of natural disaster per 100,000 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 related deaths population

Percentage of GDP loss due to % 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 natural disasters

Resilience of city 88 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001

311

Table A14: Physical Science Indicators (4) – Transportation Projects of Toronto

Hurontario Scarborough Sheppard Smart Finch LRT Brampton LRT LRT LRT LRT Track Physical Science Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Carbon Dioxide Emission

GHG emissions per capita (tCO2/cap. year) 11.5 -0.005 0.045 -0.011 0.096 -0.001 0.012 -0.003 0.026 -0.003 0.024 -0.024 0.351

Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global Ha Ecological Footprint 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 demand/capita Index of biodiversity impact 2.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fresh Water Use

Total per capita water consumption lit/cap. day 430.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percent of city with portable water supply % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index of embodied water consumption 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Change In Land Use

Local land use change % of cropland area 39 -0.001 0.003 0.001 -0.003 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003

Population density person/km2 884 2.556 0.289 5.470 0.619 0.660 0.075 1.500 0.170 1.375 0.156 20.000 -2.262

Index of global land use impact 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nitrogen and Phosphorous Cycle

Per capita values as percent of global values kg-N2/cap. year 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 based on estimated consumption patterns

Chemical Pollution

Percentage of city population with % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 regular solid waste collection

Percentage of city population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection

PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m3 18.66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Geophysical Risk

Number of natural disaster per 100,000 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 related deaths population

Percentage of GDP loss due to % 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 natural disasters

Resilience of city 88 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001

312

Table A15: Physical Science Indicators (5) - Transportation Projects of Toronto

EV-NGV Market GTHA BRT 407 BRT Expansion

Physical Science Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Carbon Dioxide Emission

(tCO2/cap. GHG emissions per capita 11.5 -0.603 5.245 -0.004 0.033 -0.180 1.569 year) Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global Ha Ecological Footprint demand/capit 6.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 a Index of biodiversity impact 2.8 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fresh Water Use

Total per capita water consumption lit/cap. day 430.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percent of city with portable water % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 supply Index of embodied water consumption 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0

Change In Land Use % of Local land use change 39 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.001 0.002 -0.005 cropland area Population density person/km2 884 28.6 3.23 0.59 0.07 114.3 13.0

Index of global land use impact 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nitrogen and Phosphorous Cycle Per capita values as percent of global kg-N2/cap. values based on estimated 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 year consumption patterns Chemical Pollution

Percentage of city population with % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 regular solid waste collection

Percentage of city population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection

PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m3 18.66 0 0 0 0 0 0

Geophysical Risk Number of natural disaster related per 100,000 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 deaths population Percentage of GDP loss due to natural % 0.5 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 disasters Resilience of city 88 -0.60 5.3 -0.004 0.033 -0.18 1.7

313

Table A16: Socio-Economic Indicators (1) – Transportation Projects of Toronto

Union Pearson 90 Min Transfer 407 Extension Richmond Hill Sub Express Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 Under 5 mortality 6.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 live birth Gender equity 0.742 0.0001 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01

Percentage of female in schools % 0.91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 18.1 -0.01 0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.06 -0.01 0.06

Economy

Unemployment rate % 8.6 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012

Gini Coefficient 0.33 0.000 0.030 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030

Percentage of population living in slums % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GDP US$/cap 51300 265 0.5 1567 3.1 391 0.8 869 1.7

Energy Poverty Including Access to Electricity Percentage of city with authorized % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 electrical service Percentage of city with access to % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 clean energy for cooking Energy Intensity MJ/$ 24.59 0.01 0.04 -0.01 -0.04 0.01 0.04 0.001 0.004

Mobility and Connectivity

Number of personal automobiles per capita vehicle/cap 0.61 -0.001 0.2 0.0001 -0.01 -0.0001 0.01 -0.0005 0.08 Daily number of public transport trips per PT trips/cap.day 0.25 0.0002 0.08 0.0000 -0.005 0.000 0.005 0.0001 0.04 capita per 100,000 Number of internet connections 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel % 23 0.97 4.2 -0.058 -0.25 0.058 0.25 0.49 2.1 mode other than a personal vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 2.5 -0.001 0.04 0.001 -0.04 -0.001 0.04 -0.001 0.04 population Commercial air connectivity NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Institutions Ease of Doing Business – World Bank 19 0.001 0.005 0.001 0.005 0.001 0.005 0.001 0.005 (downscaled from country to city level) Number of convictions for per 100,000 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 corruption by city officials population Tax collected as a percent of tax billed % NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt service ratio NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Basic Services

Average life expectancy year 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage of population with regular % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 solid waste collection Percentage of city population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection Percentage of population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 with potable water supply Security and Public Safety per 100,000 Number of fire related deaths 0.44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Number of homicides 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Violent crime rate NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population

314

Table A17: Socio-Economic Indicators (2) – Transportation Projects of Toronto

DRL Pape-St Pickering Airport Viva Rapid Ways Go Electric Andrew Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 Under 5 mortality 6.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 live birth Gender equity 0.742 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.0001 0.0135 0.0001 0.0135

Percentage of female in schools % 0.91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 18.1 -0.01 0.06 -0.01 0.06 -0.010 0.055 -0.010 0.055

Economy

Unemployment rate % 8.6 -0.001 0.012 -0.010 0.116 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012

Gini Coefficient 0.33 0.000 0.03 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.03 0.0001 0.03

Percentage of population living in slums % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GDP US$/cap 51300 501 1.0 174 0.30 710 1.4 769 1.5

Mobility and Connectivity

Number of personal automobiles per capita vehicle/cap 0.61 -0.0005 0.085 0.0003 -0.052 -0.0004 0.070 -0.0014 0.23 Daily number of public transport trips per PT trips/cap.day 0.25 0.0001 0.0416 -0.0001 -0.0253 0.000 0.034 0.000 0.114 capita per 100,000 Number of internet connections 83 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel % 23 0.52 2.3 0.32 1.4 0.43 1.9 1.4 6.2 mode other than a personal vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 2.5 -0.001 0.04 0.001 0.04 -0.001 0.04 -0.001 0.04 population Commercial air connectivity NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt service ratio NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Basic Services

315

Table A18: Socio-Economic Indicators (3) – Transportation Projects of Toronto

Durham Sub Modification Subway to Vaughn Mississauga 403 Scarborough Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 Under 5 mortality 6.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 live birth Gender equity 0.742 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0135 0.0001 0.0135 0.0001 0.0135

Percentage of female in schools % 0.91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 18.1 -0.010 0.055 -0.010 0.055 -0.010 0.055 -0.010 0.055

Economy

Unemployment rate % 8.6 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012 -0.010 0.116

Gini Coefficient 0.33 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0303 0.0001 0.0303 0.0001 0.0303

Percentage of population living in slums % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GDP US$/cap 51300 14.9 0.029 7.9 0.015 1.7 0.0033 1.2 0.0023

Mobility and Connectivity

Number of personal automobiles per capita vehicle/cap 0.61 -0.0015 0.2383 -0.0004 0.0635 -0.0001 0.0191 -0.0001 -0.0225 Daily number of public transport trips per PT trips/cap.day 0.25 0.0003 0.1163 0.0001 0.0310 0.0000 0.0093 0.0000 0.0110 capita per 100,000 Number of internet connections 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel % 23 0.291 1.264 0.388 1.685 0.116 0.506 0.137 0.596 mode other than a personal vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 2.5 -0.001 0.040 -0.001 0.040 -0.001 0.040 -0.001 -0.040 population Commercial air connectivity NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt service ratio NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Basic Services

Average life expectancy year 80 0.600 0.750 0.800 1.000 0.240 0.300 0.283 0.354 Percentage of population with regular % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 solid waste collection Percentage of city population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection Percentage of population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 with potable water supply Security and Public Safety per 100,000 Number of fire related deaths 0.44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Number of homicides 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Violent crime rate NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population

316

Table A19: Socio-Economic Indicators (4) – Transportation Projects of Toronto

Eglinton Mississauga Dundas DRL Don Mills Go Relief Danforth Crosstown BRT Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 Under 5 mortality 6.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 live birth Gender equity 0.742 0.0001 0.0135 0.0001 0.0135 0.0001 0.0135 0.0001 0.0135

Percentage of female in schools % 0.91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 18.1 -0.010 0.055 -0.010 0.055 -0.01 0.05 -0.01 0.06

Economy

Unemployment rate % 8.6 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012

Gini Coefficient 0.33 0.0001 0.0303 0.0001 0.0303 0.0001 0.0303 0.000 0.000

Percentage of population living in slums % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GDP US$/cap 51300 23.7 0.046 28.5 0.056 308 0.601 47.5 0.0926

Mobility and Connectivity

Number of personal automobiles per capita vehicle/cap 0.61 -0.0004 0.0699 -0.0014 0.2341 -0.0001 0.018 0.000 0.0079 Daily number of public transport trips per PT trips/cap.day 0.25 0.000 0.034 0.000 0.114 0.000 0.009 0.000 0.004 capita per 100,000 Number of internet connections 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel % 23 0.426 1.854 1.428 6.210 0.110 0.478 0.048 0.211 mode other than a personal vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 2.5 -0.001 0.040 -0.001 0.040 -0.001 0.040 -0.001 0.040 population Commercial air connectivity NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt service ratio NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Basic Services

317

Table A20: Socio-Economic Indicators (5) – Transportation Projects of Toronto

Go Relief Kennedy Go Relief Kipling Hurontario LRT Finch LRT

Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 Under 5 mortality 6.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 live birth Gender equity 0.742 0.0001 0.0135 0.0001 0.0135 0.000 0.013 0.000 0.013

Percentage of female in schools % 0.91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 18.1 -0.010 0.055 -0.010 0.055 -0.010 0.055 -0.010 0.055

Economy

Unemployment rate % 8.6 -0.001 0.012 -0.010 0.116 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012

Gini Coefficient 0.33 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.030 0.000 0.030

Percentage of population living in slums % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GDP US$/cap 51300 0.8039 0.0016 0.3374 0.0007 24.5 0.048 5.5 0.011

Mobility and Connectivity

Number of personal automobiles per capita vehicle/cap 0.61 0.0000 0.0020 0.0000 -0.0004 0.000 0.041 -0.001 0.087 Daily number of public transport trips per PT trips/cap.day 0.25 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.000 0.042 capita per 100,000 Number of internet connections 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel % 23 0.012 0.053 0.002 0.011 0.2477 1.0768 0.5300 2.3045 mode other than a personal vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 2.5 -0.001 0.040 -0.001 -0.040 -0.001 0.040 -0.001 0.040 population Commercial air connectivity NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt service ratio NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Basic Services

318

Table A21: Socio-Economic Indicators (6) – Transportation Projects of Toronto

Brampton LRT Scarborough LRT Sheppard LRT Smart Track

Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 Under 5 mortality 6.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 live birth Gender equity 0.742 0.000 0.013 0.000 0.013 0.000 0.013 0.000 0.013

Percentage of female in schools % 0.91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 18.1 -0.01 0.06 -0.01 0.06 -0.010 0.055 -0.010 0.055

Economy

Unemployment rate % 8.6 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 0.012 -0.001 -0.012

Gini Coefficient 0.33 0.000 0.030 0.000 0.030 0.000 0.030 0.000 0.030

Percentage of population living in slums % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GDP US$/cap 51300 99.2 0.193 231 0.450 5.6 0.011 30.1 0.059

Mobility and Connectivity

Number of personal automobiles per capita vehicle/cap 0.61 0.000 0.010 0.000 0.024 0.000 0.022 -0.002 -0.318 Daily number of public transport trips per PT trips/cap.day 0.25 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.012 0.000 0.011 0.000 0.155 capita per 100,000 Number of internet connections 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel % 23 0.064 0.28 0.15 0.63 0.1332 0.5793 1.9380 8.4260 mode other than a personal vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 2.5 -0.001 0.040 -0.001 0.040 -0.001 0.040 -0.001 -0.040 population Commercial air connectivity NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt service ratio NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Basic Services

319

Table A22: Socio-Economic Indicators (7) – Transportation Projects of Toronto

EV-NGV Market GTHA BRT 407 BRT Expansion Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 Under 5 mortality 6.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 live birth Gender equity 0.742 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01

Percentage of female in schools % 0.91 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 18.1 -0.01 0.06 -0.01 0.06 -0.01 0.06

Economy

Unemployment rate % 8.6 -0.010 0.116 -0.010 0.116 -0.010 0.116

Gini Coefficient 0.33 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percentage of population living in slums % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GDP US$/cap 51300 388 0.8 388 0.8 388 0.8

Energy Poverty Including Access to Electricity Percentage of city with authorized % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 electrical service Percentage of city with access to % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 clean energy for cooking Energy Intensity MJ/$ 24.59 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.04

Mobility and Connectivity

Number of personal automobiles per capita vehicle/cap 0.61 -0.0028 0.4537 -0.0001 0.0094 0.0111 -1.8157 Daily number of public transport trips per PT trips/cap.day 0.25 0.0006 0.2214 0.0000 0.0046 -0.0022 -0.8860 capita per 100,000 Number of internet connections 83 0 0 0 0 0.0000 0.0000 population Percentage of commuters using a travel % 23 2.77 12.03 0.058 0.25 -1.1076 -4.8155 mode other than a personal vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 2.5 -0.001 0.04 -0.001 0.04 0.0010 -0.0400 population Commercial air connectivity NA 0 0 0 0 0 0

Institutions Ease of Doing Business – World Bank 19 0.0010 0.0053 0.0010 0.0053 0.0010 0.0053 (downscaled from country to city level) Number of convictions for per 100,000 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 corruption by city officials population Tax collected as a percent of tax billed % NA 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt service ratio NA 0 0 0 0 0 0

Basic Services

Average life expectancy year 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage of population with regular % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 solid waste collection Percentage of city population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection Percentage of population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 with potable water supply Security and Public Safety per 100,000 Number of fire related deaths 0.44 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Number of homicides 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Violent crime rate NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 population

320

Summary: Project Review - Data in Detail

Each assessed infrastructure project is applied to 7 physical and 7 socio-economic indicators through a total of 44 metrics to define ‘sustainability potential’. Percent changes are estimated, relative to the current levels for the city, and summed over the 44 measures of sustainability. The resulting ‘sustainability factor’, is averaged over the lifetime of the project (years in service up to 2050) and adjusted by the city’s metro population. The final sustainability potential value of the project divided by net cost provides ‘cost per unit of sustainability’, which incorporates project cost estimates, projected user benefits, and expected annual revenues. In some cases, such as transportation projects in Dakar, Mumbai, Sao Paulo and Shanghai, estimates for user benefits (Tables 6.2 – 6.6) are not estimated. These estimates would be provided and further refined through local project development. For projects in the Toronto urban area estimates are provided through existing literature.

Transportation projects are refined through application of the number of users – usually stated as number of users during peak weekday operations (estimates obtained from project documentation) averaged over the life of the project (2050 minus year of commissioning). Energy and basic services projects are not yet applied against estimated number of users as the benefits of cleaner air and water (energy and waste), and economic growth benefitting from reliable energy and water supply accrue to the overall urban area. This results in a slight favoring of transportation projects over basic services and energy projects, however as shown in Figure 6.11, energy projects and basic services tend to have lower sustainability costs (and are therefore preferential along the sustainability potential scale – left side of the x-axis). This is often further supported by the often greater operating revenue potential of energy projects (sale of electricity) and tipping fees at landfills.

The ‘Smart Track’ example. The public transit project is estimated to provide a per capita greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the city (Toronto’s per capita emissions are estimated at 11.5 tonne CO2/cap/year). The savings are estimated as 0.04 t CO2/cap/year, a 0.4% decrease. An estimated number of 200,000 Toronto residents would use the project, which will likely increase population density (2.3%). Small benefits in local land use change and resilience are projected (values presented as notionally beneficial, but not included in calculations). Much of the project’s positive impact is derived from the projected increase in number of transit riders. The Smart Track increases the number of transit users by an estimated 1.9%. Summing all physical and socio-economic changes (Tables A11 – A22) the Smart Track is envisaged to have on Toronto’s sustainability provides a sustainability factor of 11.6

Physical (0.351+0.003+2.262+0.001) Socio-economic (0.013+0.055+0.012+0.03+0.06+0.041+0.318+0.155+8.426+0.04+0.005)

Averaging this over the project lifetime (to 2050 with 30 years of operation) and accounting for the estimated 200,000 weekday users a Sustainability Potential of 21 is derived. This comes with

321

a cost of $0.4 billion per unit of sustainability, since the total capital costs are believed to be $5.3 billion. = (2.62) + (9) = 11.6

𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝑃𝑃ℎ𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦11𝑐𝑐ℎ.𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎6 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 200𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆,000−𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑐𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 = × × 5 × 52 = 21 2050 2019 1,000,000 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 − 5.3 + 1 1.33 = = 0.4 11.6 − 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑡𝑡 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 The proposed Rapid Transit line across the GTHA integrated with car sharing programs will have a significant sustainability potential. The project will benefit 285,600 residents, and with natural gas buses and shared electric vehicles, GHG emissions will be reduced by 4%. Increase in population density (3%) and increased number of commuters taking public transit (12%) provides a sustainability potential of 50, with the cost of $0.6 billion per unit of sustainability. The project will cost $15 billion over 30 years.

Physical (5.245+0.003+3.23+0.001+5.3) Socio-economic (0.01+0.06+0.116+0.3+0.04+0.454+0.221+12.03+0.04+0.005)

Sustainability Potential is 50, with the cost of $0.6 billion per unit of sustainability. The project will cost $15 billion over 30 years:

= (13.8) + (13.3) = 27.1

𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝑃𝑃ℎ𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦𝑦 27𝑐𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎.1𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 285,𝑆𝑆600𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆−𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑐𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 = × × 5 × 52 = 67.1 2050 2020 1,000,000 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 − 14.6 + 0.8 3.64 = = 0.4 27.1 − 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆

The Darlington Nuclear Power Plant refurbishment will add (maintain) Toronto’s nuclear-based generation capacity, which is relatively low in GHG emissions. The project is expected to be complete by 2025 at a cost of $8 billion (Table 6.7). The project’s sustainability factor is 9.32, made up of physical science indicators (Table A31) that include a modest increase in population density (centralized power provision), a 0.2 tonne/person reduction in GHG emissions, and a slight increase in city resilience. Socio-economic indicators (Table A32) include a modest reduction in unemployment (0.3%) and youth-unemployment (0.2%), and an estimated contribution of $251 to local GDP. The sustainability potential per year is a relatively small 0.31 and cost per unit of sustainability a low $0.66 billion.

As illustrated in Figure 6.11 the relative sustainability potential per year and sustainability cost of the Darlington Refurbishment in modest compared to the majority of transportation projects.

322

The modest value for sustainability potential (length along the x-axis) is largely attributed to the fact that for energy and basic-services projects, the number of users is not (yet) considered. The entire urban area is expected to benefit from these projects. This helps to facilitate comparisons of differing sectors of infrastructure investments (sustainability costs; ability to place projects on one cost curve). As the methodology is further developed energy and basic service projects should include application of numbers of users. Only 3 energy projects, and 2 basic services projects are included in this thesis for illustrative purposes.

Also, initially in this thesis, a rough approximation of the discount rate is used. The residual value of major civil works in 2050 is estimated to be half of the original cost. This value then has a 50 percent discount rate applied for net present value estimates. As the methodology is expanded, especially for capital intensive projects such as nuclear power plants versus small- scale distributed energy alternatives, greater refinement of discount rates is needed. As initially applied in this thesis a relatively low discount rate is proposed in order to best reflect the considerable uncertainties with urban development and global climate changes89.

89 The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (2006) used an average discount rate of 1.4 percent for climate damages instead of the more typical 3 percent used for long-lived infrastructure (Godard, 2008). Criticism ensued, claiming the rate was too low (some organizations such as Greenpeace argued the rate was still too high; a lower rate favors a more cautious approach). Despite the criticism Stern defended the low discount rate claiming uncertainty on climate variability and potential delays to enact mitigation measures (e.g., WEF speech 2009).

323

Appendix 11: Changes in Physical and Socio-Economic Indicators due to the Proposed Transportation Plans - Shanghai, Sao Paulo, Mumbai, and Dakar Table A23: Physical Science Indicators – Shanghai

Subway - Line 11 Subway - Line 8 Subway - Line 10 Subway - Line 2

Physical Science Indicators Unit Shanghai Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Carbon Dioxide Emission

GHG emissions per capita (tCO2/cap. year) 11.7 -0.001 0.009 -0.001 0.005 -0.001 0.011 0.000 0.000

Rate of Biodiversity Loss

Ecological Footprint Global Ha demand/capita 2.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index of biodiversity impact 3.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fresh Water Use

Total per capita water consumption lit/cap. day 411 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percent of city with portable water supply % 98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index of embodied water consumption 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Change In Land Use

Local land use change % of cropland area 30 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 0.003

Population density person/km2 2902 12.1 0.4 8.6 0.3 13.1 0.5 2.6 0.1

Index of global land use impact 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nitrogen and Phosphorous Cycle Per capita values as percent of global values kg-N2/cap. year 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 based on estimated consumption patterns Chemical Pollution Percentage of city population with % 82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 regular solid waste collection Percentage of city population served % 72.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m3 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Geophysical Risk

Number of natural disaster related deaths per 100,000 population 0.06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percentage of GDP loss due to natural disasters % 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Resilience of city 52 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.002

324

Table A24: Physical Science Indicators - Sao Paulo

Sustainable Transport Monorail Line 2 Line 5 Expansion Monorail Line 17 Project Physical Science Indicators Unit Sao Paulo Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Carbon Dioxide Emission

GHG emissions per capita (tCO2/cap. year) 1.5 -0.01 0.66 -0.003 0.22 -0.004 0.25 -0.002 0.11

Rate of Biodiversity Loss

Ecological Footprint Global Ha demand/capita 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index of biodiversity impact 2.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fresh Water Use

Total per capita water consumption lit/cap. day 175 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percent of city with portable water supply % 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index of embodied water consumption 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Change In Land Use

Local land use change % of cropland area 24 -0.001 0.004 -0.001 0.004 -0.001 0.004 -0.001 0.004

Population density person/km2 2503 50.0 2.0 33.4 1.3 25.2 1.0 100.0 4.0

Index of global land use impact 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nitrogen and Phosphorous Cycle Per capita values as percent of global values kg-N2/cap. year 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 based on estimated consumption patterns Chemical Pollution Percentage of city population with % 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 regular solid waste collection Percentage of city population served % 99.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m3 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Geophysical Risk

Number of natural disaster related deaths per 100,000 population 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percentage of GDP loss due to natural disasters % 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Resilience of city 51 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.002

325

Table A25: Physical Science Indicators – Mumbai

Metro Line 3 Mumbai Monorail Eastern Highway Trans Harbor Link

Physical Science Indicators Unit Mumbai Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Carbon Dioxide Emission

GHG emissions per capita (tCO2/cap. year) 2.7 -0.027 1.001 -0.004 0.143 -0.001 0.030 -0.001 0.039

Rate of Biodiversity Loss

Ecological Footprint Global Ha demand/capita 1.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index of biodiversity impact 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fresh Water Use

Total per capita water consumption lit/cap. day 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percent of city with portable water supply % 96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index of embodied water consumption 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Change In Land Use

Local land use change % of cropland area 42 -0.001 0.002 -0.001 0.002 -0.001 0.002 -0.001 0.002

Population density person/km2 4225 86.4 2.0 20.0 0.5 5.0 0.1 5.0 0.1

Index of global land use impact 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nitrogen and Phosphorous Cycle Per capita values as percent of global values kg-N2/cap. year 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 based on estimated consumption patterns Chemical Pollution Percentage of city population with % 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 regular solid waste collection Percentage of city population served % 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m3 202 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Geophysical Risk

Number of natural disaster related deaths per 100,000 population 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percentage of GDP loss due to natural disasters % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Resilience of city 44 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.002

326

Table A26: Physical Science Indicators – Dakar

Blaise Diagne Toll Highway Bus Renewal Airport Physical Science Indicators Unit Dakar Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Carbon Dioxide Emission

GHG emissions per capita (tCO2/cap. year) 0.97 -0.001 0.061 -0.010 1.021 -0.006 0.606 Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global Ha Ecological Footprint 1.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 demand/capita Index of biodiversity impact 2.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fresh Water Use Total per capita water consumption lit/cap. day 69 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percent of city with portable water supply % 97 0 0 0 0 0 0

Index of embodied water consumption 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change In Land Use Local land use change % of cropland area 19.5 -0.001 0.005 -0.001 0.005 -0.001 0.005

Population density person/km2 4122 2.7 0.1 5.0 0.1 9.5 0.2

Index of global land use impact 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nitrogen and Phosphorous Cycle Per capita values as percent of global values based on estimated consumption kg-N2/cap. year 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 patterns Chemical Pollution Percentage of city population with % 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 regular solid waste collection

Percentage of city population served % 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection

PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m3 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 Geophysical Risk per 100,000 Number of natural disaster related deaths 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of GDP loss due to natural % 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 disasters

Resilience of city 37 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.003

327

Table A27: Socio-Economic Indicators - Shanghai

Subway-Line 11 Subway-Line 8 Subway-Line 10 Subway-Line 2

Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Shanghai Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 Under 5 mortality 1.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 live birth Gender equity 0.81 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.01

Percentage of female in schools % 97.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 0.68 -0.01 1.47 -0.01 1.47 -0.01 1.47 -0.01 1.47

Average life expectancy year 82 0 0 0 0 0 0. 0 0

Economy

Unemployment rate % 4.2 -0.001 0.02 -0.001 0.02 -0.001 0.02 -0.001 0.02

Gini Coefficient 0.45 0.0001 0.02 0.0001 0.02 0.0001 0.02 0.0001 0.02

Percentage of population living in slums % 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GDP US$/cap 19130 111 0.58 83 0.44 11 0.06 20 0.10

Energy Poverty Including Access to Electricity Percentage of city with authorized electrical % 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 service Percentage of city with access to % 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 clean energy for cooking Energy Intensity MJ/$ 14.8 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.07

Mobility and Connectivity

Number of personal automobiles per capita vehicle/cap 0.13 -0.0003 0.26 -0.0002 0.18 -0.0004 0.28 -0.0001 0.06 Daily number of public transport trips per PT trips/cap.day 0.83 0.0001 0.01 0.0000 0.01 0.0001 0.01 0.0000 0.00 capita per 100,000 Number of internet connections 63.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel mode % 78 0.07 -0.09 0.05 -0.06 0.07 -0.09 0.01 -0.02 other than a personal vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 6.3 -0.001 0.02 -0.001 0.02 -0.001 0.02 -0.001 0.02 population Commercial air connectivity 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Institutions

Ease of Doing Business – World Bank 96 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 (downscaled from country to city level) Number of convictions for per 100,000 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 corruption by city officials population Tax collected as a percent of tax billed % 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt service ratio 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Basic Services Percentage of population with regular solid % 82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 waste collection Percentage of city population served by % 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 wastewater collection Percentage of population served % 98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 with potable water supply Security and Public Safety per 100,000 Number of fire related deaths 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Number of homicides 1.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Violent crime rate 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population

328

Table A28: Socio-Economic Indicators – Sao Paulo

Sustainable Monorail Line 2 Line 5 Expansion Monorail Line 17 Transport Project Sao Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Paulo Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 Under 5 mortality 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 live birth Gender equity 0.37 0.0001 0.03 0.0001 0.03 0.0001 0.03 0.0001 0.03

Percentage of female in schools % 95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 17.7 -0.01 0.06 -0.01 0.06 -0.01 0.06 -0.01 0.06

Average life expectancy year 69.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Economy

Unemployment rate % 5.2 -0.001 0.02 -0.001 0.02 -0.001 0.02 -0.001 0.02

Gini Coefficient 0.61 0.0001 0.02 0.0001 0.02 0.0001 0.02 0.0001 0.02

Percentage of population living in slums % 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

GDP US$/cap 22674 348 1.53 233 1.03 176 0.78 17 0.08

Energy Poverty Including Access to Electricity Percentage of city with authorized % 99.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 electrical service Percentage of city with access to % 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 clean energy for cooking Energy Intensity MJ/$ 5 0.01 0.20 0.01 0.20 0.01 0.20 0.01 0.20

Mobility and Connectivity Number of personal automobiles per vehicle/cap 0.31 -0.0012 0.38 -0.0008 0.26 -0.0006 0.19 -0.0024 0.77 capita Daily number of public transport trips per PT trips/cap.day 0.9 0.0002 0.03 0.0002 0.02 0.0001 0.01 0.0005 0.05 capita per 100,000 Number of internet connections 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel mode other than a personal vehicle to % 71 0.24 0.34 0.16 0.22 0.12 0.17 0.48 0.67 work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 7.8 -0.001 0.01 -0.001 0.01 -0.001 0.01 -0.01 0.13 population Commercial air connectivity 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Institutions Ease of Doing Business – World Bank 116 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 (downscaled from country to city level) Number of convictions for per 100,000 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 corruption by city officials population Tax collected as a percent of tax billed % 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt service ratio 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Basic Services Percentage of population with regular % 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 solid waste collection Percentage of city population served by % 99.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 wastewater collection Percentage of population served % 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 with potable water supply Security and Public Safety per 100,000 Number of fire related deaths 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Number of homicides 64.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Violent crime rate 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population

329

Table A29: Socio-Economic Indicators - Mumbai

Metro Line 3 Mumbai Monorail Eastern Highway Trans Harbor Link

Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Mumbai Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 Under 5 mortality 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 live birth Gender equity 0.7 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.01 0.0001 0.01

Percentage of female in schools % 87.15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 11 -0.01 0.09 -0.01 0.09 -0.01 0.09 -0.01 0.09

Average life expectancy year 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Economy

Unemployment rate % 11.7 -0.001 0.01 -0.001 0.01 -0.001 0.01 -0.001 0.01

Gini Coefficient 0.35 0.0001 0.03 0.0001 0.03 0.0001 0.03 0.0001 0.03 Percentage of population living in % 37.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 slums GDP US$/cap 6688 80 1.2 21 0.3 27 0.4 27 0.4

Energy Poverty Including Access to Electricity Percentage of city with authorized % 95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 electrical service Percentage of city with access to % 68.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 clean energy for cooking Energy Intensity MJ/$ 6.5 0.01 0.15 0.01 0.15 0.01 0.15 0.01 0.15

Mobility and Connectivity Number of personal automobiles per vehicle/cap 0.036 -0.0024 6.67 -0.0006 1.54 -0.0001 0.39 -0.0001 0.39 capita Daily number of public transport trips PT trips/cap.day 0.63 0.0005 0.08 0.0001 0.02 0.0000 0.00 0.0000 0.00 per capita per 100,000 Number of internet connections 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel mode other than a personal % 94 0.48 -0.51 0.11 -0.12 0.03 -0.03 0.03 -0.03 vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 34.2 -0.001 0.00 -0.001 0.00 -0.001 0.00 -0.001 0.00 population Commercial air connectivity 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Institutions Ease of Doing Business – World Bank (downscaled from country to city 134 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 level) Number of convictions for per 100,000 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 corruption by city officials population Tax collected as a percent of tax billed % 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt service ratio 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Basic Services Percentage of population with regular % 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 solid waste collection Percentage of city population served % 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection Percentage of population served % 96 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 with potable water supply Security and Public Safety per 100,000 Number of fire related deaths 1.65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Number of homicides 1.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Violent crime rate 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 population

330

Table A30: Socio-Economic Indicators - Dakar

Blaise Diagne Toll Highway Bus Renewal Airport Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Dakar Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 live Under 5 mortality 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 birth Gender equity 0.44 0.0001 0.02 0.0001 0.02 0.0001 0.02

Percentage of female in schools % 68 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 14.8 -0.01 0.07 -0.01 0.07 -0.01 0.07

Average life expectancy year 60.7 0 0 0 0 0 0

Economy

Unemployment rate % 30 -0.001 0.00 -0.001 0.00 -0.001 0.00

Gini Coefficient 0.39 0.0001 0.03 0.0001 0.03 0.0001 0.03

Percentage of population living in slums % 35 0 0 0 0 0 0

GDP US$/cap 3718 1250 34 536 14 71 1.9

Energy Poverty Including Access to Electricity Percentage of city with authorized % 96 0 0 0 0 0 0 electrical service Percentage of city with access to % 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 clean energy for cooking Energy Intensity MJ/$ 10.2 0.01 0.10 0.01 0.10 0.01 0.10

Mobility and Connectivity

Number of personal automobiles per capita vehicle/cap 0.012 -0.0005 2.9 -0.0009 5.4 -0.0017 10

Daily number of public transport trips per capita PT trips/cap.day 0.5 0.0001 0.02 0.0002 0.04 0.0003 0.07 per 100,000 Number of internet connections 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel % 88 0.10 0.11 0.18 0.20 0.34 0.39 mode other than a personal vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 17.2 -0.001 0.01 -0.001 0.01 -0.001 0.01 population Commercial air connectivity 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Institutions Ease of Doing Business – World Bank 178 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 (downscaled from country to city level) Number of convictions for corruption by city per 100,000 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 officials population Tax collected as a percent of tax billed % 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Debt service ratio 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Basic Services Percentage of population with regular solid waste % 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 collection Percentage of city population served by % 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 wastewater collection Percentage of population served with potable % 97 0 0 0 0 0 0 water supply Security and Public Safety per 100,000 Number of fire related deaths 3.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Number of homicides 8.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Violent crime rate 0 0 0 0 0 0 population

331

Appendix 12: Energy and Basic Services Projects of Toronto Table A31: Physical Science Indicators – Energy and Basic Services Projects of Toronto

Durham York Toronto's Landfill Niagara Tunnel Darlington Refurb Bruce Refurb Incinerator Greenway Physical Science Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Carbon Dioxide Emission

GHG emissions per capita (tCO2/cap. year) 11.5 -0.3000 2.6087 -0.2000 1.74 -0.2000 1.74 -0.1000 0.8696 -0.1000 0.8696

Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global Ha Ecological Footprint 6.5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 demand/capita Index of biodiversity impact 2.8 0.050 1.78 0.0000 0 0.0000 0 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Fresh Water Use

Total per capita water consumption lit/cap. day 430.8 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Percent of city with portable water supply % 100 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Index of embodied water consumption 3.5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Change In Land Use

Local land use change % of cropland area 39 0.0100 -0.0256 0.0100 -0.0256 0.0100 -0.0256 0.1000 -0.2564 0.1000 -0.2564

Population density person/km2 884 10.0000 1.1312 10.0000 1.1312 10.0000 1.1312 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Index of global land use impact 3.5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Nitrogen and Phosphorous Cycle Per capita values as percent of global values kg-N2/cap. year 36 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 based on estimated consumption patterns Chemical Pollution Percentage of city population with % 100 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 regular solid waste collection Percentage of city population served % 100 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 by wastewater collection PM 2.5; PM 10; O3 µg/m3 18.66 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Geophysical Risk

Number of natural disaster related deaths per 100,000 pop. 0.01 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Percentage of GDP loss due to natural disasters % 0.5 0.0010 0.2000 0.0010 0.2000 0.0010 0.2000

Resilience of city 88 0.1000 0.1136 0.1000 0.1136 0.1000 0.1136 0.1000 0.1136 0.1000 0.1136

332

Table A32: Socio-Economic Indicators – Energy Projects of Toronto

Niagara Tunnel Darlington Refurb Bruce Refurb

Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in Under 5 mortality 1000 live 6.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 birth Gender equity 0.742 0 0 0 0 0 0

Percentage of female in schools % 0.91 0 0 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 18.1 -0.1000 0.5525 -0.2000 1.13 -0.2000 1.13

Economy

Unemployment rate % 8.6 -0.1000 1.1628 -0.3000 3.45 -0.3000 3.45

Gini Coefficient 0.33 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percentage of population living in % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 slums GDP US$/cap 51300 7.75 0.02 251.16 0.49 334.88 0.65

Mobility and Connectivity Number of personal automobiles vehicle/cap 0.61 0 0 0 0 0 0 per capita Daily number of public transport PT 0.25 0 0 0 0 0 0 trips per capita trips/cap.day per 100,000 Number of internet connections 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel mode other than a personal % 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 population Commercial air connectivity

Institutions Ease of Doing Business – World Bank (downscaled from country to 19 0.1000 0.5263 0.1000 0.5263 0.1000 0.5263 city level) Number of convictions for per 100,000 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 corruption by city officials population Tax collected as a percent of tax % billed Debt service ratio

Basic Services

Average life expectancy year 80 0.5 0.63 0 0 0 0 Percentage of population with % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 regular solid waste collection Percentage of city population % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 served by wastewater collection Percentage of population served % 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 with potable water supply Security and Public Safety per 100,000 Number of fire related deaths 0.44 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Number of homicides 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Violent crime rate population

333

Table A33: Socio-Economic Indicators – Basic Services Projects of Toronto

Durham York Toronto's Landfill

Incinerator Greenway Socio-Economic Indicators Unit Toronto Change Scaled Change Scaled

Youth Opportunity Deaths in 1000 Under 5 mortality 6.4 0 0 0 0 live birth Gender equity 0.742 0 0 0 0

Percentage of female in schools % 0.91 0 0 0 0

Youth unemployment rate % 18.1 -0.1 0.6 -0.3 1.8

Economy

Unemployment rate % 8.6 -0.1 1.2 -0.1 1.2

Gini Coefficient 0.33 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Percentage of population living in slums % 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

GDP US$/cap 51300 1.67 0.00 51 0.1

Energy Poverty Including Access to Electricity Percentage of city with authorized % 100 0 0 0 0 electrical service Percentage of city with access to % 100 0 0 0 0 clean energy for cooking Energy Intensity MJ/$ 24.59 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4

Mobility and Connectivity

Number of personal automobiles per capita vehicle/cap 0.61 0 0 0 0 Daily number of public transport trips per PT trips/cap.day 0.25 0 0 0 0 capita per 100,000 Number of internet connections 83 0 0 0 0 population Percentage of commuters using a travel % 23 0 0 0 0 mode other than a personal vehicle to work per 100,000 Transportation fatalities 2.5 0 0 0 0 population Commercial air connectivity

Institutions Ease of Doing Business – World Bank 19 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.5 (downscaled from country to city level) Number of convictions for per 100,000 81 0 0 0 0 corruption by city officials population Tax collected as a percent of tax billed %

Debt service ratio

Basic Services

Average life expectancy year 80 0 0 0 0 Percentage of population with regular % 100 0 0 0 0 solid waste collection Percentage of city population served % 100 0 0 0 0 by wastewater collection Percentage of population served % 100 0 0 0 0 with potable water supply Security and Public Safety per 100,000 Number of fire related deaths 0.44 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Number of homicides 2 0 0 0 0 population per 100,000 Violent crime rate population