A Cities Approach to Sustainability by Daniel Hoornweg A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto © Copyright by Daniel Hoornweg 2015 A Cities Approach to Sustainability Daniel Hoornweg Doctor of Philosophy Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto 2015 Abstract This thesis provides a response to the question of how we might achieve greater sustainability, and from that sustainable development. An engineering approach, or applied science (physical and social), integrated within a multi-stakeholder partnership, is proposed. A road map to a partial, or ‘shadow agreement’ is proposed, that would hopefully serve as the start of a global process leading to comprehensive sustainable development. An argument is made why cities are the most likely actors to design and bring about such an agreement. An agreement among the world’s larger cities (those urban areas with 5 million or more residents by 2050) is possible, and is likely a necessary, but not sufficient condition to achieve sustainable development. Each city is viewed as a unique system as well as collectively within a ‘system-of-systems,’ and more broadly within local and global ecosystems and economies. Global boundaries and objectives such as the Sustainable Development Goals are down-scaled and applied at a metro-city level. Population projections are provided for the world’s larger cities (in 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100). Along with the hierarchy of sustainable cities, two new tools are developed in this thesis: (i) a cities approach to physical and socio-economic boundaries, and: (ii) sustainability costs curves. These two tools underpin the shadow agreement and are powerful planning and engineering tools in their own right. Case study application of the tools is provided for Dakar, Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, and Toronto. ii Acknowledgements A graduate student over 50 has even more people to thank than usual. At the top of the list is my advisor Chris Kennedy. I met Chris while working at the World Bank and saw how high-quality, under-stated research could have such a tremendous impact. I only hope I learned a little from the teacher. Chris’ enthusiasm and good nature convinced me to undertake this effort, and his support enabled me to finish. I am very thankful. I also want to thank the other members of my committee: Eric Miller, Patricia McCarney, Kim Pressnail and Michael Sanio. This is not a short document and I am well aware of the time they dedicated to reading and improving the work. The idea for this thesis was seeded at Rio+20 (Rio de Janeiro, June 2012) in the back seats of taxis with Rachel Kyte and Andrew Steer of the World Bank. They probably were not aware of it at the time but I hope I have done some justice to their wise council. Past and present colleagues of places like the World Bank, UNEP, UN-Habitat, GEF, IADB, ADB are some of the most dedicated and thoughtful professionals I have ever had the good fortune to work with. Again, I hope this work might help them in some small way. Another close colleague who unfortunately is no longer around to provide his advice, good cheer, and effective red editing pen is John Bull. John was my boss in Guelph; a civil engineer who tried to teach me how to mix passion and professionalism, and why engineers cannot do this alone. John showed me how a civil engineer, when working with the community can be a powerful force for good. My father, the city engineer for Trenton from 1955 to 1992 also showed me the value of being civil. I also benefited from the advice and friendship of Heinz Unger, Hardy Wong and Bob Breeze, all excellent engineers. My current colleagues at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT), Dean Brent Lewis and former Dean George Bereznai encouraged me to ‘hurry up and get a PhD.’ I appreciate their confidence, as well as the University’s support. I also appreciate former Provost Richard Marceau’s confidence and friendship. At UOIT, Michelle Cholak helped with the preparation of this thesis, always with a smile and good cheer. Michelle also led preparation of the related Sustainability Today website hosted at UOIT. Kevin Pope, Ofelia Jianu, Azin Behdadi, and Mehdi Hosseini assisted with research. The best part about working at a university is the students. I am thankful when they show up to class, but I am terrified at the task in front of them: building cities and providing energy to 2.5 billion more people during their careers. I am fortunate to be married to my best friend and confidante, who also happens to be a great editor. Jacquie encouraged me to stick to it on weekends and accommodated the papers strewn across the dining room table. iii Last, but never least, are the professionals and citizens who toil every day to design, build and manage our cities. The mayors, councilors, planners, engineers, receptionists, reporters, waste collectors, street sweepers, snow plow operators, accountants and the many people who run the world’s cities help us all. Cities are humanity’s greatest accomplishment and there is no work more important than the work of cities. Thank you all. *** Several people assisted with the research associated with this work. The list of cities and their projection to 2100 was prepared with Kevin Pope (now at Memorial University). The concept was mine and the starting point for the list of cities was based on a World Bank paper Building Sustainability in an Urbanizing World (July, 2013) that I authored with Mila Freire with input from Bank staff and some 70 partners. The analysis of city population predictions in this thesis is found in Population Predictions of the 101 Largest Cities in the 21st Century, Global Cities Institute Working Paper 4 (Hoornweg and Pope, 2014). The full list of city populations in 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 (those expected to be above 5 million) is provided in Annex 3. I also published a discussion of these city growth projections as Jumbo Shrimp: The Rise and Fall of American Cities in Corporate Knights, June, 2013. Chapter 5 is a summary of a paper written jointly with Mehdi Hosseini, Azin Behdadi and Christopher Kennedy. The concept was mine. Mehdi completed much of the graphical representation and data collection. Chapter 6 is a summary of two (possibly three) papers written jointly with Mehdi Hosseini, Azin Behdadi and Christopher Kennedy. The concept was mine. Azin and Mehdi completed much of the cost curve graphing and data collection. The concept of city boundaries and sustainability cost curves was included in a background paper and discussed at a Global Environment Facility meeting August 2014 (I was a consultant to the GEF). The transportation sustainability cost curve (with rapid transit and electric vehicles) was further developed by myself and Mehdi Hosseini while at UOIT. We were retained by the Ontario Natural Gas Association to review transportation issues in southern Ontario. A supporting paper was published (April, 2015). While at the World Bank Perinaz Bhada-Tata and I developed waste management projections which supported the concept of peak waste. With Christopher Kennedy we published a commentary Waste Must Peak this Century in Nature, October 2013. A more detailed paper Peak Waste: When Is It likely to Occur? was published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology July, 2014 (co-authored by the three of us). The methodology used to estimate waste generation by city is replicated for energy demand projections, available at the Sustainability Today website at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology. iv The discussion on cities as complex systems, biomimicry, and the science of cities was assisted by a comprehensive examination question from Eric Miller, and his excellent CEM1004H course that I took in 2014. This work was also summarized in a paper I wrote for GDF Suez Biobuilding City Systems: Learning from Nature October, 2014. Urban metabolism information discussed in this thesis for Amman, Buenos Aires, Cape Town, Dar es Salaam, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai is presented in the 2012 Barcelona Urban Research Symposium paper, Mainstreaming Urban Metabolism: Advances and challenges in city participation (I was lead author). The discussion on engineers and sustainable development education is also included in Meeting the Infrastructure Challenges of African Cities presented at the November 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers Annual Conference. Also while preparing this thesis I contributed to, and edited the book, Letters to a Young Engineer. The book was distributed to about 5,000 graduating engineers across Canada. v Dedication This thesis is dedicated to a few of the women in my life. First, my wonderful wife Jacquie who makes me smile from the inside out and our two lovely daughters Kate and Shannon; my mother Maria, one continuous act of kindness; and my sisters Tina, Mary Ann and Judy, who taught me early, and Rena who tried a bit later. My spirited nieces and grandnieces, more than a dozen and still growing, as well as the five strong-willed (fortunately) women who married my nephews. The pumulung woman in Semarang and the small hungry girl in Harare whose names (and lives) I will never know. My female engineering students who I so hope increase in numbers. Tomorrow’s girls, who if we can house, clothe, educate and treat with respect, will get us out of this mess. My amazing bosses over the years – Mrs. Barker, Linda, Genie, Cecile, Phyllis, Laura, Zoubida, Frida, Marianne, Kathy, Inger, Pamela, Stephanie, Abha, and Rachel. My many dedicated teachers; my impressive colleagues and their mix of intellect, compassion and dedication: Mila, Federica, Rumana, Lorraine, Judy, Artessa, Sally, Avril, Julianne, Natalie, Christa, Alexandra, Sangeeta, Gisela, JoAnne, Ellen, Soraya, Laura, Patricia, Xiaofeng, Adelaide, Jennifer, Michelle and many more.