Planning ahead for the future of rail in the north

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Manchester Hub Square One 4 Travis Street M1 2NY Manchester Hub Rail Study 2 The Manchester Hub Rail Study 3

Executive summary

• The last ten years has seen a transformation in rail • The major barriers to achieving these are: across the North of , with more passengers choosing to travel by train. (i) limited capacity and railway conflicts in Manchester, through which the majority of rail services that run • Hundreds more trains now run every day, and they are across the North pass safer and more reliable than ever before. (ii) slower journey times including the lack of facilities • With significant economic growth in the North, and for fast services to overtake stopping services on the people prepared to commute further to work, more peo - major routes across the North. ple now prefer to travel by train than on congested roads or by plane. • These barriers limit the degree to which rail can support the North’s sustainable economic growth. • Enhancements to the rail network such as additional and faster north south services from the upgrade of the West • Work undertaken by the Northern Way indicates that re - Coast Main Line as well as improved safety, performance moving these barriers is vital for the continued eco - and reliability have supported this modal shift. nomic prosperity of the North.

• The North’s city region economies are forecast to con - • The Manchester Hub is the most significant rail bottle - tinue to grow and we are making significant investment neck in the North. Constraints there affect commuter in new infrastructure before 2014. This will result in even services, services that link the North’s city regions, serv - more people choosing rail as the quickest, most environ - ices to and from (the North’s most mentally friendly and easiest way to travel. important international gateway) and they limit the growth of rail freight.

The challenge • The study has been carried out in two phases; - Phase One led by the Northern Way has identified • Fast and reliable links between the North’s city regions the economic case for enhancement to the Man - are essential to support growth of jobs and businesses. Hub and the improvements to rail services Growth in rail commuting into the North’s city centres that would drive this economic growth. These are will support their sustainable growth. described as conditional outputs. • Also vital to the future economic prosperity of the North - Phase Two led by Network Rail has identified value are improved links to ports and airports. Manchester Air - for money interventions to address the gaps be - port is the UK’s largest airport outside the South East. tween the capability of the network in 2014 and the • Even with planned investment, the North’s strategic capability required to deliver the conditional outputs. road network is forecast to become more congested • The conditional outputs identified by the Northern Way with journeys taking longer and being more unreliable. in Phase One relate to: • We want to meet this challenge by enabling train opera - - Capacity to meet growth forecast to 2019 and 2030 tors to provide faster, more frequent and more reliable train services than ever before, right the way across the - Carbon reduction North. - Performance Achieving the ambition - Journey times between Manchester and adjoining Northern cities • To support this, we need to provide the capacity on the - Connections between towns and growth areas of rail network to enable journeys to be made reliably: - within the city regions - Connectivity to deliver economic benefit - between city regions - Frequency of service to Manchester Airport - and to ports and airports. - Service interval and frequency on trans Pennine routes 4 Executive Summary 5

- North/South capacity Faster, more frequent and more reliable services Next steps - Freight . • Our preferred option provides the capability for • The work undertaken forms part of our planning process significant improvements to rail services across the for Control Period 5 (CP5) between 2014 and 2019. North, including inter-regional, commuter and freight The solution services. • Network Rail will continue to work with the rail industry and stakeholders to develop the preferred option set out • Network Rail has identified a preferred solution that • For inter-regional services the opportunity is created to: here, including the further electrification proposals with delivers excellent value for money and provides the a view to inclusion as a specified scheme in the 2012 opportunity for faster, more frequent and more reliable - increase the frequency of train services between High Level Output Specification. services, freeing up capacity and providing for future major cities in the North growth in demand. • Our strategy has been developed to provide further - provide direct train services between cities in the opportunities beyond Control Period 5 (2014 to 2019). • Working with the Department for Transport, First North where currently passengers change trains in These include: TransPennine Express, , DB Schenker and Manchester Greater Manchester Passenger Transport Executive as - even greater capacity on the network well as the Northern Way, we have identified a strategy - reduce journey times across the North - reducing journey times even further which will: - provide new direct links between Northern cities and - increase platform capacity in central Manchester Manchester Airport. - allowing for the arrival of a future high speed line into Manchester or other service improvements to - remove conflicts which use up much valuable • This will provide the opportunity to: services from , and the South. capacity - improve journey times on the North trans Pennine • By doing this, we can continue to provide the faster, - increase capacity on key lines across Manchester route, reducing journey times for passengers more frequent and more reliable services that underpin and on major routes across the North. between the North East, the sustainable economic growth of the North of and Manchester, and other destinations England. • Following detailed consideration of alternatives, west of Manchester Network Rail identified two strategic options to provide the capability to achieve the conditional outputs: one to - improve journey times from and the East allow greater use of Manchester ; the other Midlands to Manchester, Manchester Airport, greater use of Manchester Victoria. Liverpool and other destinations west of Manchester

• Our work demonstrates that the Manchester Victoria - provide direct journeys from Bradford, Halifax and option offers better value for money and greater the Calder Valley to Manchester Airport and benefits at a lower capital cost. destinations west of Manchester

• The preferred option involves: - provide direct services from Chester to destinations beyond Manchester - A new section of railway west of at Ordsall, to allow trains to travel from - reduce delays to services across the north of England. Manchester Victoria to both Manchester Piccadilly • On key Manchester commuter corridors the opportunity and Manchester Airport stations. is created to:

- Major improvements to Manchester Victoria - enable more commuter and local services to run allowing many more services to use the station and throughout the day providing improved facilities for passengers. - make commuter and local services faster than ever - New tracks on the North trans Pennine line between before and Liverpool and on the Hope Valley between Sheffield and Manchester to allow fast - introduce 15 minute frequency services between trains between the major towns and cities of the Manchester Victoria, Manchester Oxford Road, north to overtake slower trains. Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Airport improving end-to-end journey times by making • The Department for Transport, First TransPennine Manchester city centre more accessible by rail Express, Northern Rail, DB Schenker, Greater Manchester Passenger Transport Executive, and the - connect north east Manchester into the wider rail Northern Way support this preferred option as the best network by running through Manchester Victoria. way of resolving the Manchester Hub problem. • For freight operations the study provides the opportunity to;

- double capacity into the terminals

- provide capacity for traffic to planned new freight terminals. 6 Contents 7

Contents

1 Background 9

2 Dimensions 13

3 Baseline capacity 19

4 Drivers for change 35

5 Gaps and options 43

6 Evaluation of strategic options 57

7 Conclusions 69

8 Opportunities for service improvements from the preferred option 71

Glossary 75

Appendix A Details of stakeholder meetings 77

Appendix B Infrastructure interventions evaluated 80

Appendix C Train service modelled 84 8 Chapter 1: Background 9

Chapter 1 Background

1.1 Introduction 1.2 Stakeholder participation The Manchester Hub is the network of rail corridors that The process adopted for Phase Two of the study was link and cross in and around the centre of Manchester. The designed to be inclusive. It involved active partnership Manchester Hub is the most significant rail bottleneck in working between industry parties and wider regional the North of England. It limits the capacity, performance stakeholders through a Steering Group and sub groups and connectivity of commuter and longer distance involving; DfT, DB Schenker, Northern Rail, First passenger services terminating in Manchester or passing TransPennine Express, GMPTE, Government Office of the through the Hub. It therefore adversely affects journeys North West (GONW) and the Northern Way, with between the North’s city regions. It also limits the number Freightliner, Arriva Trains Wales, CrossCountry, East of trains, from across the North and beyond, that can serve Midlands Trains, Virgin Trains, and Merseytravel Manchester Airport, the North’s principal airport, as well as (Merseyside PTE) joining a subgroup to work at a detailed those that can access important distribution centres for level. There was also extensive consultation with a wider freight. group of stakeholders through a series of workshops held during the study period. On 4th October 2007, the then Department for Transport Minister of State, Rosie Winterton, responding to the work This process included identification of the potential of the Northern Way, asked Network Rail to undertake a infrastructure interventions and creation of a service study to develop proposals to enhance the capacity and specification which was designed to identify the network functionality of the Manchester Hub. The Manchester Hub capability required to meet the conditional outputs. Study has been undertaken in two phases. This was overseen by a Department for Transport (DfT)-chaired Sponsors’ Group, the other members being the Northern 1.3 Document structure Way, Greater Manchester Integrated Transport Chapter 2 describes the geographic scope of the study and Authority/Passenger Transport Executive (GMITA/PTE), the planning context within which it has been developed. , Government Office of the North West (GONW) and Network Rail. Chapter 3 summarises the capabilities of the network as they are planned to be at the end of Control Period 4 The Sponsors’ Group agreed a two phase approach to the (2009-2014) and the usage of the routes within the area, study: drawing on input from key industry stakeholders, and • Phase One led by the Northern Way identified the highlighting particular issues. economic case for enhancement to the Manchester Chapter 4 discusses anticipated changes in supply and Hub and the improvements to rail services that would demand identified in Phase One of the study and the drive economic growth, which are described as factors identified as important to driving economic growth conditional outputs. and identified in the conditional outputs. • Phase Two led by Network Rail identified value for Chapter 5 analyses the gaps between the network money interventions to address the gaps between the capability in 2014 and that required to deliver the capability of the network in 2014 and the capability conditional outputs. This chapter draws the analysis required to deliver the conditional outputs. In terms of together into two strategic options for the Manchester Network Rail’s project development process Hub. interventions are developed to a GRIP1 1 level of detail. Chapter 6 evaluates the strategic options to identify a The Northern Way concluded Phase One in their report recommended option for the Manchester Hub for “Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement” in April implementation in Control Period 5 (2014-2019) and 2009. The Northern Way’s report can be downloaded from beyond. their website www.thenorthernway.co.uk. Chapter 7 outlines the recommended strategy for further development to enhance services across the north of England through the Manchester Hub.

1GRIP; Guide to Railway Investment Projects, Network Rail’s project development framework where 1 represents the earliest stage and GRIP 3 represents identification of a single option for design and implementation. 10 Chapter 1: Background 11

Chapter 8 describes the opportunities for improvements to rail services as a result of the preferred option.

Appendix A identifies the various stakeholder meetings

Appendix B identifies the infrastructure interventions evaluated

Appendix C outlines the train service modelling to test the concept of the Manchester Hub 12 Chapter 2: Dimensions 13

Chapter 2 Dimensions

2.1 Purpose • County Council The purpose of this, the Phase Two of the Manchester • Freight Transport Association Hub Study is to take the work done by the Northern • Central Urban Regeneration Company Way, and then; • Yorkshire Forward • identify the gaps between the capability of the network in 2014 and the capability required to deliver the • Halton Borough Council conditional outputs • Metro ( Passenger Transport Executive) • identify the value for money interventions to address these gaps. • Greater Manchester Integrated Transport Authority • Office of Rail Regulation

2.2. Stakeholders • 4NW

The study involved two main groups of stakeholders. • GONW These were the Steering Group and the Wider Stakeholder Group. The Steering Group met every six to • Yorkshire and Humber Assembly eight weeks to monitor progress and guide future work. • North West Rail Campaign The Steering Group consisted of members from the following organisations: • The Northern Way

• Network Rail • Peel Ports

• Department for Transport (DfT) • DfT

• The Northern Way • Derbyshire County Council

• Northern Rail • with Darwen Borough Council

• First TransPennine Express • Borough Council

• DB Schenker • East Council

• Greater Manchester Passenger Transport Executive • Cheshire West and Chester Council (GMPTE) • Arriva Trains Wales • Government Office of the North West (GONW) • Freightliner The Wider Stakeholder Group included a wide range of stakeholders and consisted of the rail industry • Northern Rail (passenger and freight operators), as well as local and • TransPennine Express regional authorities with transport responsibilities. The Wider Stakeholder Group met on several occasions to be • Virgin Trains updated and give feedback on progress. The membership of this group is shown below. • CrossCountry

• Merseytravel • East Midlands Trains

• South Yorkshire Passenger Transport Executive • DB Schenker.

• Manchester Airport

• Association of North East Councils

• Association of Train Operating Companies

• North West Development Agency 14 Chapter 2: Dimensions 15

In addition, working groups were constituted that met • The submissions to the DfT for Control Period 5 (2014 – Figure 2.1 Train services and Manchester Hub on various occasions to develop options and the service 2019) and beyond are expected to be in 2011/12, with level specification. The organisations involved in these the Initial Strategic Business Plan submission due in are shown below: Summer 2011.

• Arriva Trains Wales • A series of Delivering a Sustainable Transport System (DaSTS) studies are taking place across the study area • Freightliner which include; Trans Pennine, Access to Manchester, • Northern Rail Access to Leeds and North West Connectivity.

• First TransPennine Express • In addition, three franchises operating in the Hub area are due for specification and reletting in the near future: • Virgin Trains Virgin (2012), First TransPennine Express (2012) and Northern Rail (2013). The outputs of the study can • CrossCountry influence the DfT’s work in determining the • East Midlands Trains specification of the future services to be operated in the Hub area. • DB Schenker • GMPTE 2.4. Geography • Merseytravel. The geographical scope of the study area has been The details of the groups meetings are at Appendix A. limited to make sure that the focus is on studying the flows across the key railway constraints. The geographical area included in the study is bounded by 2.3. Timeframe and linkages to other studies but does not include: There are a number of other studies and projects which • Stoke-on-Trent have an interface with the Manchester Hub study. • • The Manchester Hub study builds on the North West • Chester and Yorkshire and Humber Route Utilisation Strategies (RUSs). • Liverpool Lime Street

• Trans Pennine linespeed improvements being developed • by Network Rail to reduce journey times between Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool for delivery by 2014 as • Preston detailed in the DfT’s 2007 White Paper. • Blackburn • Work on the future timetables for the West Coast Main • Leeds Line has continued in parallel with this study. The emerging outputs especially at Stafford have formed • Sheffield. the basis for the timetabling of traffic from the south in the Hub study. Where appropriate, issues at the periphery will be dealt with by the Northern RUS. Benefits from the • The New Lines report published by Network Rail and the interventions will accrue to the wider area of the North. HS2 study has guided the understanding of potential high speed options that the Manchester Hub Study Figure 2.1 shows the geographic extent of passenger needs to take into account. and freight services coming from or going to the Hub study area where the benefits of enhancements across • The Network RUS Electrification has been published the Manchester Hub will accrue. during the Hub study. To avoid duplication, the Hub study has avoided interventions that involve electrification. However the synergies will be identified in future development phases.

• The Northern RUS is one of the second generation of RUSs, due to be published for consultation in 2010. This RUS will address issues that impact upon a wider area across the North. The outputs of the Hub study will form a part of this RUS. 16 Chapter 2: Dimensions 17

Figure 2.2 Shows the area of the study for infrastructure intervention: in-scope shown in red and out of scope shown in blue Figure 2.3 Schematic of the study area 8 D e t L u E o E T I R A F G E S 8 K K D e R t A E I u E o W K R L P D D g E L O L n T i E t S E A I I n S i G F F T O D E D L S K E A E G A s G g H y n m n i W W e N E c t l D o J d n t A i l g G t y R D e e y n H o e i i D l O Y f p t I e b r t l r C r D i F t R d R o o o L R a y D a U M n B h C M n E E e t c B o l I A B c Y J r s T J s s L F S R d r n n B h N n F A c 1 B I e e g W 1 a J t T l u E v t t e e E o S e t l a a r y H n e u c n d o D n e D r l e c y R y H o S t l o r D J i e L e G t e e R s i X l D L a y d f s h E s L d e I d A E s l n I u g w l o r r i o d e F F L e o I h a r n o H a a e t r M f r e e S P G c i h L e h o t e r J n B t D e M d a E g g l R R A r n g f l i D r o y r n G r t S d d y o e a e n E A c a H S i c n H J r n s e B h y l w O i N C i l D J r M r r d e B e W d l M y e R y D i e e o e y e G o e o N f y l h l r i d d U t n m R o p b d y y e r l m a y r H o 1 a o e L H H W w e 1 - i H R R M r S o e w F l t e L u o L F d L o A I S e n n R 1 e c d e n t R 1 u l N M J y d s - o r e T p H a t t O n r o n s u g W N f W T o c a o e t E n J E E y X i R M E m n h r M d e i n G n N C G U a s r u D o y p t t I n D i B B A b n o n o I r S y r e U e d o r l H R t B u D e a n G m s s l b n l r B y l c i d d e J e o e B l e l M E r h h d D o t l t n B h w i u t y e H e i i o h f r s N n S M r e C s i c F E N v o J - e d a n o E e G g M h o F l t o r - d D D n o t D i s o I r o n r y e t B w N r l t h o e h R h B u s n e E n - a t s s l l c b a i e G c r B A y V J h h H d J E s e n v d t o l s e t l s d p l o d i r u i A n s w S w N y s r a a c e e o o e Y o o l M e J M t h h h G r o R W u n R S n y e d s l c g U l w s l C r B i w t W J m e a u o y B e r l e s e u r d s r e s h F B n d V z p H T u t s o e i y p k d e F c i N y l d N b i r u S r a n J p o e a R e d h h a o l o m E A c D e h u n n l l n R s s H h y P P S J i s O R o L g g l b e E r e e u A l e n r C R P d u h a d L c A d v h o i B W r J s r o H s K s N E a n D D k l l r o y l A n B o c n C a D n e A o n H i M t l n y k a o e m c r t T r y o e b E L a O n k n o l h J C w W v d t a a d g l t N l c 3 u n h e i e T i o e P d l y d H U e t n l J 2 o t g O m i e r t b h E r o i t H E S y t t H t s T H L e r e e C H f n i a d s ' r t R t l p l i A R s m o r i r w l t s R e l L e s u e r i o n o i l e e T s f S P f d o l B e r h E W d r M - i e l / o i y e k t a R d l r B P t A c T n t a r e n P e s c N n s M t n c s e c o d C c n a w l S c l J r o a e J i a a a O C A l a t y u T g R I a - E L C k Y h d r ' d S s H e s r c n R L c i M E o E u 1 d R H y u v o h r d L o o 1 r s w n t t b T I a f y K e P o o O a C c t r d l g e n M a e r C s x r d o t t e S n s D l n C s o T e o O l s i N u n d g A d a e d a t a r e l l i l M O R E n a t A c p o i e e T L r R C s e A e c a e J I u d i l t l R G g g E D g H M f J H G S d C r s n d i a P e M V e n d l a l c a o C C t y K p f J o I n E M E A s l l r y n n e r N a L a t P e a e u e e u s h A W C r d y h a B t e t l n B n C r O M d s e C W c a S r l h L J r o s l G t t M o r e a e o S f e E h n 8 t o n n l s G e n d g c 1 e c l a d T N p e G o s d a M J m E r l i e t & L l a R T a e o r r A a t g L t S C O o I b B e H n u E n W R G S i i N o t d y H T r H E m S O e W e R r t n a O ' S r n I s r R e P N T P a s e k D o d T a o E n T g n D s y N C A R i s S n A c d W I d A i S L d H o J R E r E n t n i O A i M G B e n C C l O D D I K k G W R W d o ' r R N R S F t V n d a M A O 4 s L e A A E n n P 1 F s P a P A d A s k o N R m F M e r t o r s t H d S A k o C u n r o r o i U d R C o n r W r o a T f k a R w W o f N C c t P Y I ’ 3 f S e a h e o e y i N t n t 2 l h r y c l R y l t r s t d n s e l n i l a e e T u T O a e o a s T t C l e a n i s b e s ’ r e i L r u i L T l S r k r b w o h m n l L w c m d W h a A h o l r a t r t R a n p o e c l r i e O d o a y a e H n r o s T B w o a m e B K M H D E B s n l M e e l o u t r w a e h s d y e a n n n n n R H d s h 8 d n i r e n n r N c c o l 1 s k t n u c G o A J J l C l r M a R t u J b e l e o n r l t h a e U k s d t o F B c u o B r c c s i B b B e t o n a e W c o k l K w s b n x f R o i h B W n y C E l t t o o o s r t t A a e h F r o l s L M M u b k g N e n B c m n m n c u h n o t J a R t t u e c K f o l l s m J d H d E e A o h a o r l h a P r t r r l L T o T c o f r s c i t I G i R G r S F e r k a w t O E c k H g h a W t c o H d a l W r t P l o n i s t C o S H o s o H M N D N o L r y L k L e y O s h n n i U o a T c n o a i o O u t w r L G r d D w r g k e b A B M r l N o r n f I k e e f i h o R t d a r c w n a g i z s d R i r c o n o T H e P y e r e a M T J n c d l d l o R N e N J C k m o l u 3 o t a A G w r E 2 a d E C l g O h e k n e n C W t T e t c i n c c i J r a u l A y n i a D H o l c g e N d e n N G n B J l n R d c - d B i c r A c L A J e g s W J N l a J o L - n k e e r n O G s n o P O h n l n I 8 A d a o c T k o r r i E w a T t 1 n n t c S P C u o n i o g f o a l i a W W I S w R l l b E e t t Y i l w 2 t e y x m Y N T W S R n o E n 2 E u B n t i e u a N W c A m o P c L G L e s R O E J B 8 S t M W J R a U 1 a u R T L O S h o e Q E y G A E t - 8 P s L R N N H u e 1 s E e d N L n H K R A T l o I k n r e n - o E t R E R G N n r e I o R s o u n T l O n i 8 a c o A F t S o W R e N w 1 e s t R n c S E B o e A e e H l 3 u n t w r l W n 2 i t s u u l e W R o G d a e J S i t l W N c R l i u i a o W m s h e y e R n n L a h i o t h H C a n g g n e i R u k e l i r o P G H d n o o n t o c 1 s J 2 i w n e h e t o l t u s y a W o u s R H H o r C n o s t t n y c n n J c u u n s s t J t s o s H t n t H y o r b e s u r e b e l H C W l o A W u R d n a e H o e r r H Y B G y e k A T r r g e n r a U o W c t l 1 J r n P e K 2 O o k e o h t e e t n S R c l t 1 v n r t n h u i 2 A o a L e a l o c l l o r s e P l l O t R i e W B B o u A T r O H o t e t R P s y e e R e l h l E l n s M W i c s V H e J l I c l o t g i e L s g d M a H d n E E E l L T a H a E O n l T i o R E O m o O r p R P e M r F T T e A l R v i E a S 1 E L o S 2 V C E I e t L M u I o L R 18 Chapter 3: Baseline capacity 19

Chapter 3 Baseline capacity

3.1 Baseline 3.2.4 East Midlands Trains East Midlands Trains operates services in the study area The delivery of the Manchester Hub is not envisaged from Liverpool Lime Street towards Sheffield and before the start of Control Period 5. The baseline service beyond via Manchester Piccadilly and the Hope Valley. structure and infrastructure for the study has therefore The franchise was awarded in 2007 and is due to expire been taken to be 2014. As a result the baseline for the in 2015. capability of the rail network includes all the commitments in Control Period 4. 3.2.5 CrossCountry CrossCountry operates services in the study area from the south and south west of England, through the West 3.2 Train operators Midlands to Manchester Piccadilly. The franchise was awarded for a nine-year period from 2007. Whilst the baseline is 2014, the passenger train operators and their franchise specifications as at 2014 3.2.6 Virgin Trains are not yet known. Similarly the operation of any Virgin Trains operates services from London Euston to current or future open access operators is not known. Manchester Piccadilly, Liverpool Lime Street, and Consequently it has been assumed that the current Preston and beyond in the study area. The franchise was operators and services continue, except where there are awarded for a 15-year period from 1997 to 2012. known changes. At present, seven franchised passenger train operators and six freight train operators run 3.2.7 Merseyrail Electrics services over the lines covered by the study area. Merseyrail operates services on the electrified Merseyrail system focused on Liverpool. These interface with the These are: study area at Hunts Cross. The concession is due to expire in July 2028. 3.2.1 Northern Rail Northern Rail operates the majority of the services and 3.2.8 DB Schenker stations in this area, and is the only operator to run DB Schenker runs services for a wide range of freight services on all Manchester corridors. Northern is the markets. Of particular interest to the study are the bulk operator of all bar one of the local services in the Hub flows out of Liverpool docks, intermodal containers to area. The Northern franchise runs to 2013, with final and from and aggregates from the Peak two years subject to performance targets being District. achieved. 3.2.9 Freightliner 3.2.2 First TransPennine Express Freightliner has two divisions: First TransPennine Express (TPE) operates interurban • Freightliner Limited hauls container traffic, services with limited stops, notably across the Pennines predominantly in the deep sea market. It operates towards Leeds and Sheffield and beyond, and services out of Garston, Ditton and Trafford Park northwards to Preston and beyond. The key hubs for TPE terminii in the study area are Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly. The current franchise was • Freightliner Heavy Haul is a significant conveyor of bulk awarded in February 2004 and runs until 2012. goods, predominantly coal, construction materials and petroleum, and also operates infrastructure services. It 3.2.3 Arriva Trains Wales operates out of the , and also carries the Arriva Trains Wales (ATW) operates services from Wales Manchester waste traffic. into Manchester Piccadilly via both and Warrington. Despite its inter-regional nature, the service 3.2.10 First GB Railfreight from North Wales is in effect the ‘local’ service from First GB Railfreight operates services to Fiddlers Ferry Chester via Warrington Bank Quay. The franchise is due from Liverpool Bulk Terminal and . to run until 2018. 20 Chapter 3: Baseline capacity 21

3.2.11 Fastline Freight Figure 3.2 shows that there is very little two minute Figure 3.1 Fastline Freight operates services out of Liverpool Bulk headway, but a good portion of three and four minute Terminal. headways. However, there are significant portions of the area that either have absolute block signalling or have 3.2.12 Other freight operators headways longer than four minutes. Direct Rail Services and Colas Rail both operate on the and occasionally in the study 3.4.2 Loops and four-tracking area. Serco and West Coast Railway both have access Capacity is determined not just by headways but also contracts allowing them to operate on the study area. by the ability for trains to pass each other, particularly fast trains to overtake slow ones. Figure 3.3 shows that in the study area there are relatively few opportunities 3.3 Current pattern of services for one train to pass another; there is little four track railway, and few loops. Where there are loops, they are Broadly, there is a standard hourly pattern of passenger in many instances not readily useable in both directions. train services, with an hourly pattern of freight paths, not all of which are used. The impact of the peak varies 3.4.3 Line speeds by location/corridor. Some see the same level of service The prevailing linespeed in most route sections is but with longer trains, some see the off peak level of between 50mph and 75mph, although there are service, with an overlay of additional services, and some significant portions that are only 50mph or less. All of see a completely different pattern of services. the passenger rolling stock currently used in the study area, however, is capable of at least 75mph, with the Figure 3.1 is a schematic that indicates the level of electric units and the interurban diesel units capable of service seen in a standard hour on the study area. 90mph and above. Very little of the study area is capable of more than 75mph for all passenger services. Whilst a good portion of the Hope Valley is faster for 3.4 Rail network in the study area Sprinter units 1, class 185 units which constitute half of The principal physical characteristics that impact on the the fast passenger services are not able to make use of study and have been considered are: that higher speed. There are a number of routes along which the linespeed varies. This can be inefficient in • planning headways terms of capacity and journey time, depending on unit types and stopping patterns. In some cases the speed • loops / four tracking profile has been tailored to a historic stopping pattern, • linespeeds and consequently perpetuates this historic stopping pattern. This is especially true for the interurban • junction turnout speeds services, which do not stop as regularly as local services, and consequently – all other things permitting (such as • electrification clearances and track alignment) would be capable of • Metrolink. reaching speeds much higher than the current maximum. 3.4.1 Planning headways The headway is a measure of how closely (in time) one There is a Control Period 4 (CP4) scheme to improve train can follow another. Within the study area, speeds between Liverpool and Manchester via Chat headways vary from two minutes along the Moss and between Manchester and Leeds. Reductions in corridor to six minutes at Milner Royd Junction, and journey times between these cities are a move towards even more on some single line sections. Most notable of the Department for Transports (DfT’s) White Paper the single lines are parts of the busy section between target journey time of 30 minutes between Liverpool and Blackburn, and between Stockport and Lime Street and Manchester Oxford Road via Chester. In both instances the presence of multiple and 43 minutes between Manchester and Leeds. The single line sections on the same route makes timing details of the outputs of that work have not been services more difficult than would otherwise be the determined at the stage of this report going to press case. Single lines restrict the number of services that can and are expected in summer 2010. run and are generally a performance risk. There are a 3.4.4 Junction turnout speeds number of lines where the headways vary along the As well as being affected by the speed of plain line, route. In some cases, this suits the service pattern and journey time is also affected by the need to slow down train type, however, it can limit capacity reducing the at junctions. The majority of the junction turnout ability to alter the timetable, recover from perturbation, speeds are 35mph and below. Deceleration from or use the route for diversions. This is the case on the linespeed and subsequent acceleration back to Atherton line, and along the Calder Valley. linespeed after crossing a junction costs time and capacity. The slower the turnout speed, the greater the impact. In some cases, the requirement for approach control on the signalling impacts journey time and decreases capacity further. 1A category of passenger diesel multiple unit. 22 Chapter 3: Baseline capacity 23

Figure 3.2 Headways in the study area Figure 3.3 Loops and four-tracking 8 D e t 8 L u E D e o t E T L I u R E A o F E T I R G E S A F 8 K K D G E S e R t A 8 E K I K D u e E o R W K t A E I u R L E o W K R L P D D g E L O L n T P D i D g E E t S E A L I O L I n T n i S i G F E t S F E A I I T O n E D S D i G F F L S K E A T O D E D E G A L s S G g H K y E A n m n i E W W e G A N E c t l s G D g H o y J d n t n m n A i l g i G t y W W e N R E c t l D o D e e y n J d H o e n i t i D A i l l g O Y f G t p y t I e R b r t l r C r D e e y n D i H o e F t i i R D d R o l o O Y f o p t I e L R b r a y t l r C r D a U M D n B i h F t C R M d E R o n E e t c o B o o l L I A R B a y c Y J r D a s U M n T B h s J s C M L F n E E e S t R c B d r o n l n B I A B c Y N J h r s n F A c 1 T B I e J s e s L g F S W 1 a R J t d r T n l n B E v u t t h N n F A c 1 e e E B I e e o S e g t a l a r W 1 a y J t H T l n e u E v u n d t c t o D n e D r l e e c y R e E H o o y S t S e l t l a o a r D y r J i H e L e G t n e e e u c n d R s i o D n X l e D r l D e L c y a R y d f y H o S s t h l E o s r D J i e L d e L e I d G A t E s e e l n R s i I u w g l X l o r D r L a i y d f o d e s F h F L E e s o I h a L d r e n o I d H a A a E s e l n t I u w g r M f r l e e o r S P G c i r h L i e h o o d e t e F F L r e n J B t o I h D e a r M d n o H a a E a g e g l R R t A r n g f l r M f r i D e e S P G c r o i h L y e h r n o G t e r t r S d d y n J o e a B t e n E A D e c M d a H S i a E g g l R R A r n g f l c n H i D J r n s e B r o h y l w y r n G O i N C i l D r J t r S d d y M o e a e n E A c r r a H S i d e B e W d l c n H M y e J r n s R e B h y y D l w i e e o O i N C i l D J e y r e M G o e o N f y l h r r d e l B r e i d d W U d t l M n y e R m y D R o p i e e b d o y y e e y r l e m G o a y e o N f r y l h H o l r i d d 1 a U o t n e L m H H W R o w p e 1 - b d i H y y e r l m R R a y M r r H S o o 1 e a o w F l e t L H H W w e e 1 - i L H R R u M r o L F S o d e L o w F l t e A I S L e n n u R o L 1 F e c d d e n L o t R 1 u l N M J y d A I S e n s - n o R r 1 e T p e c H d a t e t n O t n R 1 u r l N M J o y d n s u s - g W N f o W T r o e c a T p o H a t e t t O n E n r J E E y o X n s i u R M E m g W N n f h W r T M o d c a e i n o G e n t N C E G U a n s J r u D E E y o y X i p R M E t m t I n n h r M D d i e i B B n A b n o G n n I o N C G U a s r r S u D y r o y e U e p d t o t r I l n D H R t i B B A b n o B n u D I o e n a G m r S s y r e U s e l b n l r d o B r y l l c i d R t H d B e u D J e o e e B n a G m l s e s l l b n l M r E B y r l c h h d i d D o d t l t e J n e o B h e B l w i e u l M t y E e r H h h d e i i o D o h t l t n f r B h w i s N n S u M r t y e e H C s i e i c F i o h E N v f r o J - e d s N a n S M r e n C o s i E c e F G g M h o E F l N t v o J - e o d a r - d D D n o t D n i o s E e o G g M h I o r o n F l r t y e t B o w r N - r l d t D D n o h o t D e h i R h s B o u s n I e r E o - n n a t r s s y l e t l B c b a w i e N G c r B r l t h o A y e V h J R h h h H B d J E s e u s n n v e d E n - t o a t s l s s l e l c t b a l s i e d G c r B p l o d i r A y u i V J A n s w h h H S w d N J y E s e s r n v d t o a a l c e s e o e o e t Y o l s o d l p l M e J o M d i r t u i h h A n s w h G r S w N o y R s W u r n S R a a n c e y e e d o o s e l Y o c g U l o w s l l C r B M e i J M w t t h h W h J m G r e a u o o y R W u B e n S R r l e s e u n r d s r y e e d s s l h F B c g U l n w d V s l z C r B p H i T u t s w o e t i y p W k d J m e F e a u c i N o y l y d B e N r b i r u l e S r s e a u r d s r n e J p o e a s R h F B e d n d V h h a o z p H l o m T u t s E A c D e h o e u n i y p n k d l l e F c i N n y l R s s H h d y N P P S J b i r u i S r s O a o R n L g g J p l b e o e a E r R e e e u d A l e h h a o n l o m r E A c D e h u n C R n l l P d u n R s s H h a d h L c A y d v h P P S J o i i s O W B R o L g g r l b e E r J e e u A s r o l e H s K n s r N E a n C D D k R l l P r d u o h a d L c A d y v h l o i B W A n B o c r n C J a D n e A o s r o n H H i K s M t s l n y N E a n k a D D k o l e l m r c o r t T r y y o l e b E L a O n A n B n o o l h c J C w n C W v d t a a D n a d e A o n g l H i N t M t l c 3 u l n y h k a e i o e T e o m e c P d l r y d H U e t n J t T r y o 2 o e b t g O E L a O n m i e n r t b h o E l h r J C w W v d t a i a d t H E S y g l t t H t N t s H L T l c 3 u h e e e e C H f i n i e T a o d s e ' r P d l R y d H U e t n t l J p l i A R 2 o s m o t g O r i r m i e r t b h w l E t s r e l L s u i e t H r E S y i o t t H t s H L T n o i l e e e T e e C H f n i a s f S P d f o d l s B e ' r R r h t l p l i A W R d r s - i e m o l r i r o i w l t s e e / l L s t u a R d e l r y r B P t i o A n o i l R c e e n t T s r e n P e s f S P f o d l N B e n a s t r h M W n d r - i e c s e l / c o o d C c i n y e l c E k t a R d l r B P t J o w a e A J a a R c a n t l O a r e n P C e s c u l a y t N i n s g M t n R T - c s e L C k Y h d c r o d C c n a d ' w a l S s E H e c l J r o r a e c n J i a a L a c o O i M E S C E u l a t y 1 d u R T g v o y r h R T d a - L C L o k Y h d o A r 1 ' w n t d t S s I b H e T I a f E y K P s r s c n o e R L a c t r i M d E S o E u l 1 d e n M a e y r C s c u v o x h r r d o d t e t L o S k o A R 1 D l r H s o s w n t e o t l O g I b n s T I a f E y K u d e g A d c P o d a o a c t r r a d s e l l i l n M O R e E n a a n M a e A p r C s o e e x i T a r O r C d o R t t e s n e S n R e D l t C H s e c r o L e o e O l l u g d s i l t c u d i R g g A d g G E D g a H d a f J H G T S a d C T r s e l t r i N l n M O R E n a n a J A p d i o e e a i T L O r C e R l e s n e n s d l a e M t e c l c s e l u o d C C i l t C t c t A i R G g g E D g P a H K p f J H G T S f d C J I u o r I n N E A M s n a J s l d i l a r y e l e n n n e r E d l a N M a l c a L a o t C C M V o C P t A e a e P e K p f J I e o u I n s h E E A M A W s l C l r y d C y n h n e r N a a t e a L t t l M V n B P e a n e e C r e O u s M d s h A W e C C W c r a d y S h r a t e l h L J r t l o n B s l G n t C t r O M o M d s r e e C W a c a e o S e f S h E n r 8 t o n n l l h L s J r G o e d n s g l G c t 1 e c t l M a o d T r N e p e G o s d a a M J m E e o S r e f l i e h E t n & 8 L t l a o n R T a e n l o s r r G A e n d g a t c g L t 1 S e c C l O a d T o N I b p e G o B e H s d a M J n u m E n E W r R l i e t G S i & i L l a R T a e N o r r A o t d a t y g L t H S C T H r O E m o S O e I b W B e H n u e R E n W R r t n a G S i O i N ' S o t r n I d s r R e y P H N T P T H r a s e E k D m S O e o d W T a o e R r t n E a n T O g n D s y N C A R ' i s S S r n I s n A r R e c P d N T W I P a s d e A k i D L S d o d H T a o J o R E r E E n T n g t n D n s y N C i A R O A i s S i M n A c G B d e n W I C d A i C l S L d O D I H k o J R E r E G W D R n t K W d o n ' r i O A i N M S F t G V B e n C n R d R C l O D I a k M 4 s G W L e D R A A K W E n d o ' r A O n N S F 1 t s V P a P n R A d d R P A F s a k N o R m M M 4 s L e A A e E n r t A o O n F r s t H d 1 S s P k a P o A d C P A F s u n r A o k N o r R m o M i U d e r t C o o F r n r s W t r R o H d S a k o C f k u n r a R w A W o r o T o f N i U C d c C t P o Y I n r ’ W r R o 3 a f S e a h e o e y f i N k t a R w W n t 2 l h T o r y f N c l R y C l t r c s t d t P n s e Y I l ’ 3 n i l f S a e e T e a u T h e O o a e y e o a s T i N t C l t e n t 2 a l h r y n i s c l b e s ’ r R y e l t r i L r s t d u i L n T l s e S l r k r n i l a e e T u T b O w a o h e m n o a s T l L w t C l c m d W h e a a A h o n i s r l b e a s ’ r t e r t i L r u i L R T l a n p S o e r c k r l r i e O d o b y a a w e H o h n r m n o l L w c m d W h s a A T h o B r l a t r w o t a m e R a n p B o e K c M D E B H s n l l M e r i e e O d o y a a e H n r o l o u t s r w T B a e h s w o d a m y e B e K M D E B H s a n l M e n n n n n e R H s d h 8 d l n i o u t r e n n r r w N c c o a e l h 1 s s d k y t n u c G o A e J J l C a l r M a n R n n n n t R H s d h 8 d u J b e l e n i r e o n n n r r N c c l o t h a e l 1 U k s d s t o F k t n u c G o A J J B l C l r c u o M B r a c c R s t i B b u J b B e e l t e o n o n r a l e W t h a e c o k U k s d l t o F K w b s n x B f c u o R B r o c c i s i h B b B W n B e y t C E l t t o o o o n s a e W c o k l r t K w t b s n x A a e f h F R o i r o l h B W n s y L C E l M M t u t o o o b s k g r N e n t t B A a e c m h F n m n r c o l u s L h n M M o u t b k J a g R t t u e N e n c K f o l B l c m s m n m n c J u d H d E e n h A o o h a o t r l J h a R t a P t u r e t c K r f r o l l L T l o T s m c o J f d H r d s c E e i A o t h a o r l I G i h a P R G r r S t r F r l e L T r o k T c o a w f t r s O c i t E c k I G i R G r H g S h F a W e r k t c o a w H t d O a l W r t E c k P l o n H g h i a W s t C o S t c H o o H d a l W r t s P l o H o n i M N D s t C o S N H o o L r y L s o H k L e M N D y O s h N o n L n i U o r y L a T c n k L e o a i y o O s O h u t n n U i w r o L G r d a T D c w n r g o k a i e b o B A M r l O u t N o r w r L n G f r d I k e e f i h D o w r R g t d a k r c w e b n A B M a r g i z l N o s d r R i r c o n n o f T H I e k e e P y f i e r h o e a R M T J t d n c d a l r c w d l n o R a g i z s N e N J C d R i k r c o n o o m T l u H e 3 o P y e r e a t a A M T J G w n c d l r E l d 2 o a R d E N e N J C C l k g O h e m o l u k n 3 o n e C W t t a A T G w e t c i r E n c 2 c a d E i C l J r a g u O h e l A y k n n i a D e n H C W t T o l e c t c i g n c e N c d e n N G i n B J l J r a u n R l A d y n c - d i B i a c D r H A c L o l A c J g e g e N s W d J e N n l a N G J n B o J l n R L - n k d c - d B e i e c r r n O G A c L s n o P O A h J n e g s W l n I J N 8 A d a l a o c J T k o o r r i E L w a - n k T t 1 n n t e e c S P C r n O G u o n i s o g n o P O h n f o a l i a l n I W W I 8 A S w d a R o c l l b T E e t k t o r r Y i i l E w 2 w a t T t 1 n e n t y x c m S P C Y N u o T n W S R n o i E n 2 o g E u B n t f o i a l i a e W W u I a S w N W R l l b c E e t t A m Y o P i l c w 2 L G t L e s R e O y E J x B m 8 S Y N t T M W J W S R n o E n 2 E u R a B n t U i e u a 1 a N W u c R T L A m o P O c L G L S e s h R O E J o B 8 S t M W J e Q E y R a G A U E t - 8 P s L 1 a u R R T N L N O H u e S 1 s h o E e d N L n H e Q E K R A y T l o G A E I k t - 8 P s L n r e R n - N o N H E t R E u e R G 1 s N n E e r d N L e I o n H R s o K R A u n T l T o l I k O n i n r e 8 n a - c o o A F t E t R E S o R G W R e w N N n 1 e r s e I o t R s o u n R n T c S l E O n B i 8 o a e c A e o e A F H t S l o 3 u W n t w R e w N r 1 e s l W t R n n c 2 i S t E s u B u l e o e W R A e e H o l G 3 u d n t w a e r J S l i W t n l 2 i N W t s u c R u l l e i W R u i a o G d a e S J o i W t m s l N W h e c R l i u y e R i a n n L o a h W i m s o h e t y e R h H C a n n g n L a h i o g n e t i R h H C a n u g k e l g i n r e o i R P u k e l G H i r o P d n G H o o n d 1 t n o c 1 2 o s J 2 o i n w t e o c 1 t n e h e s t J 2 u o l i w t u o n s e y a h W o e t o R l u s t u R H s y a H W o o u r s R H H o C r n o s C t t n n y c n o s n J t t c u n u n s s t J y t c n n s o s H t J n t H c y u o u r b n e s s s u r t J t e s o b e l s H t n t H H C W l y o r b e o s u r A W e b u e l H C W l R o A W d n u x R i a e g d n H o e r r a e n y m e k i H Y H o e B r G g r r e A T r k r a H o Y t a B n l G y e U k r c P W c A T r r o g e J n e e n K O r s a U n a o W c s o v t h l 1 t e t S r J R h r n c P l e 1 K 2 O a e r o t t n c 2 e o h A t o L k t e e e t n S y - a R c l l t l e 1 v W o r s e r P t l y l y r O n t h u i 2 a c T A l B B o a L e a u o c A l l o r s e P O l H l a u o a c O t t o R i n e W e B B i l u R P A s y T o O H o t w o s e e d e f R e l R B P l s y h o i w l E e n s s s s l n s n W e i R e i e t c i l d s h a V H e e J l e e e e w l E I c l n s W l o i L t n d t u t t t t t g i c n e s L V s H e d J R g l I d c M a u l o o H n u u u u t d - a g i e n l L i e E E e s a E g l d M k a - n n n n H d o n i i i i s s h E E l E g c L m T a H a s e s p p p E O n l T l n a i m m m m L T a o b i H a R E + a r o o o O m E o O n l T O r t i p R o P e R E A M H S 6 5 4 3 2 d r F o o - o O m o T T e O r A l R p R v P e L L 4 M L r F i E a S T 1 E T e L A o S l R 2 v i E V a S C E 1 E I e L o S t 2 L M V u C E I I e o t L L M u R I o L R 24 Chapter 3: Baseline capacity 25

Figure 3.4 Linespeeds Figure 3.5 Turnout speeds 8 D e t 8 L u E D e o E t T I L R u E A o F E T I R G E S A F 8 K K D G E S e R t A E 8 K I K u D e E o W K R t A E I R L u E o W K R L P D D g E L O L n T P D i D g E E t S E A I L O I L n T n S i i G F E F t S E A I I T O D E n S D i G F F L S K A T O D E D E G A L s g H S y K A n m n i W W e E G E c A t l s o g H y J d n t n i l m n g G t y i W W e E c t l D e e o y n o J e d i n i D t l i l g Y f p t G I t y e b r t l r r D e D e y n i t o e i R i d D R o l o o Y f p t L I e a y b r t l r a U r M B D h i t C M R E e d t R o B n o o n o l I B L Y a y r c s c a U M B s h s L C F J M J S E e t r B n n o n B n l I B Y r c F d A s c 1 c h e e s s L F J 1 W J n t J S g T r n n B E v t a u e l F d A c 1 e E h e e S t t a a o r y 1 W H J n t l g T n u e n d E v t o D n e D a c l u e c y R e l H o e e E S t l S o t t E y a D a r o r J i y e L H e l r t e e n R u e n s d i o X l D n e D c L a G l y e d c y f R H G D s o e h E S t l s o E y D r L d J i e I e d A L E s e r t l e e n R I u w g s l i o r X N l r i L o a G d e y d D f F F L G D s h E e s o I h a r n o L d H a e a I d A A e E s t l n r M f r I u w g e S P G c l e i R o r h N L r e h o i t e o d e D F F L r n J B t e H D e o I h M d a r a E n o g H a a g l R R A e A r n g t O f l i D r M f r r o e S P G c e i R y h r n L e G h o t C e r t S d d y o e a r e n J n E A B t F c H D e a H S i M d a E g g l R R A c n r n g H O f l J r n s i e B D h y l R r o w y O i N C r n i l D G J D r C r t M S d d y o e a e n E A r r F c d e a H S i B e E W d l M y e c n H R J r n y D s A e B h y i e e l R w o O i N C i l e y D J e D r G o T M e o N f y l h r r l r d e i d d B e U R E t W d n l M y e m R R o p y D A b d i e e N o y y e r l e y m e a y G r o T B I e o N f y H l h o l 1 r i d d a o U R t e n L H H W w m e 1 - R o p b d i H N y y e R R r l m M r a y r B I S H o o e 1 a w F o l t e L e H H W w e 1 - L i H u R R o L M r F S d o e L o w F l t A I e S e n L n R u 1 o L e F c d e d n t L R 1 u o l N M J y d A I S s - e n n o r R e T p 1 H e a t c d t e O n n t r R 1 u l N o M J n s y d u g s - W N f W T o o c r a e T o p H e a t t t E O n n J r E E y X o i n s R M E u m n g h W N r f M W T d o i e c a n o G n e N C t G U a s E r n J u D o y E E y X p i t R t M E I m n n h r D M i B B d A b i e n o n n G I o n N C G U a r S s r y r u D e U o y e d p o r t l t I n D R t H i B B B A b n u D o n e I o n a G m s r S y r s e l U b n l r e B d y o l c r l i d d R t H e B J e o u D e e B l n a G m e s l M s l b n E l r r B y h l c h d D o i d t l d t n e J e B o h e B w i l u e t l y M e E H r e i h h d i o h D o t l t f r n B h s N n w i S M u r e t y e C H s i c F e i i o E h N v o J - f e r d a s N n S M r e n o E C e s i G g c M h F o F l E t N v o J - o e r d - a d D D n o t D i s n o o E e G g I M h r o o n r F l y t e t B w o N r l r t - d h o D D n o e t h D R h i B s u s n o e E I n - r a t o s n s r l y l e c t b a B i e w G c r B N r l t A y h o V J e h h h H R d h J B E s e n v u s n d e t o E n - l a t s s s e l t l l s c b a d i e p l G c r B o d i r u i A y A n s w V J S w h N h H y d s J r E s e n v d a a t o c e l e o s o e e Y o t o l s l d M e J p l M o t d i h h r u i h G r A n s w o S w R N W u y n s S R r n a a y e c d e e s o l o c g e U l Y o w s l o C r B i l M e w J t M t W J m h h e a u h o G r y B o e R W u r n l e s S R e u r d s r n e y e d s h F B s l n c g d V U l z p w H s l T C r u t B s i o e i w y p t k d e F W c i N J y l m e a u o d y N B e b i r u S r a r l e s e u n r d s J p r o e e a R e s d h F B h h a o n d V l o m z p H E A c D e h T u t s u n o e n i y p l l k d n e F R s s H c i N h y l y d P P S J i s O N b i r u S r R o a L g g n l b e J E r p e o e a e u R A e l e d n h h a o r l o m E A c D e h C R u n P n d u l l h a d L c A n R s s H d h v h y o i P P S J B W i s O R o r L g g J l b e E r e s r o e u H A K s l e s n N E a n r D D k l C l R r P o d u h a y d L c A l d v h o i A n B B W o c n C r a D n J e A o n H i s r M o t H K s l n y k s a N E a n o e D D k m l l c r r o t T r y o e b y l E L a O n n o A n B l h J C w o W v d t c a n C a d a D g n l e A o N t n l c H i 3 u M t h e l n y k a i e T o o e e P m d l y d H U e t n c J r 2 o t T r y o t e b g O m e i r t b h E L a O n E n r o l h J C w W v d t i a t H E S y a d t t H t s H L T g l N t e l c 3 u h e e C H f e n i a d i e T s o ' r R e t l P d p l l i A y d H U e t n R J s m o 2 o r i r t g O w l m e i t s r t b h e E l r L s u e r i i o t H E S y n t t H o i t l s H L T e e T e e e C H f s f S P n i f o d l a B e d s r h ' r R W t l d r p l i A - i e R l s m o o i r i r e w l t s / e t l a R d L s l u r B P t e y A r i o R n c o i l n t e e r e n P s T e N s f S P n f o d l s B e a M t r h n W c s e d r - i c e l o d C c n o i l e E c t / a R d J o l a e r B P t J w A a y a a O R c l n t C l a t y r e n P u e s i N g n s R T M - a t n L C k Y h d c s e r c o d C c ' n d S s a l H e E c r c n J o a e J L w c a a i M a E S o O E u 1 d C l l a t y y v u o R h g r i d R T L o - o A L C 1 k Y h d r w n t t ' I b d T I S s a f E a H e y K e o P r s c n a t r L d c l i M E S e o E u n M 1 d a e r C s x y r c d v o o t h R t e r S d R L D o l k o A H s 1 o e o O l w n g t s t n I b T I a f u d E g A d y K e c o d a P a s r s a e l t r i d l n M O R l E n a e a A p n M o e e a e i T r C s O r C x a R r e s n c d o t t e e S t R e c D l k H s e r o l u L e o d O l i l g t s c i R G g g n E D g u d g A d H f J H G T S d C c d a a T r r N t s e l i l n M O R n a J E n a d i a A p a o e e e i T l O r C e R n a e s n d l a M s e l t c e c s o e C C r l u L d C i l t A t c i R G g P g E D g K p a f H J I f J H G T S o d C I n u r T N E A M s l t l n a J d i y a r e n l n e r e N n E d l a a M s l a L c t M V o s C C P o e C a t e A e P K p e f u a J I s o I n h A W u C E A M s l r d l C y y h r n n e r a N t E a e t l a L t n B M V P n e o a C e e r O e M d u s s e C h W c A W C a r d S y r C h a l h L J t r e o t l s l n B G t n t C M r o O r M e d s a e C W c e o S a e f h E n S 8 t r o n n l s G l h L J r e n d g o s c l G 1 t e c l t a d T M o N p e G o r s d a e M J m a E r l i e e o S t e f & h E L n l 8 a t R T a e o o n r r n l A s G e n d a t g g L t c S C 1 O e c l a o d T I b B e H N p e G o n u s d a E n M J W m R E G r S i l i e i t & L l N a R T a e o o t r r A d y a t H g L t T H r S C E O m S O e W o I b B e H e R n u E n r t n W a R O G S i i ' N S r n I o t s r R e d P y N T P H a s e T H r k D E o d m T S O e a W o e R E n T r t n g a n D O s y N C A R i s S ' S r n n A I c s r R e d P W I N T d P A a s i e L S d k D H o d o J T R a E o r E n E t n T g n n D i s y O A N C A R i i s M S G n A B c e n C d W I d C l A O D i I L S d k H o J R E G W r E D R K W n d o t ' r n i O A N S i F M t V G B n e n R C d R C l a O D I k M 4 s L e A G W A D R E n K W d o A ' O r n N 1 s S F P t V a P A d n R P A d R F s a k N o R m M M 4 s L e e A r A t E n o F r A s O n t H d S 1 k s o P a P C A d P u n r A A F s o r o k N o R m i M U d e C r o t n r o W F r r s R o t H d a S k o f C k a R w W u n r A T o o r f N o C i U d c t P C Y I o ’ n r W 3 r R o f S e a h a e o e y i N f t k n t 2 a R w l h W r y T o c l f N R y l t r C s t d n c s e l t P Y I ’ n i 3 l a e e T u T f S O e a a h e e o o a e y s T t C l i N e t a n t 2 l h n i s r b y e s ’ r c l e R i L r y l t r u i L T l s S t d n s e r l k r n i l b a e e T w u T o h O m n a e l L w o a s T c m d W h t C l a e A h a o r l a n i t s b e r s ’ r t e i L r R a n p u i L o e T l S c r l k r r i e O d o y a a e H b n r w o o h m n l L w s c m d W h a T B A h o r l a w o t r a m e t B R a n p K o e M D E B H s n c l M e l e r i e O d o y a a e H l n r o o u t r w s a T e B h s d w o y a m e e B a K M D E B H s n n l n n n n M R H e s d h e 8 d n i l r e n o u n t r N c c r o w l a 1 e s h s k t n d u c G y o A J J l C e l r M a a R t n n n n n R H u J s d h b 8 d e l e o n n i r e n r n r l t N c h c a e o U k s d t l 1 o F s k t n u c G B o A J c J u o l C B r l c r c M s a R i t B b B e u J t b e l e o n o n a e W r l c t o k h a e l U k K w s d t o F b s n x f B R o c u o i B r c c s h B i W n B b y C E l B e t t t o o o s o n a e W c r o k t l t K w A a b s n e x h F f R r o o l i h s B L W M M n y C E l u t b t o o o k s g N e n r t B t c A a m e n h m F n c r u o l n h s o L M M t u J b a k R t t g u e c K f N e n o l l B c s m m n m J n c d H d u E e A o n h h a o o r l t h J a P a R t r t t u r e r c K f l o L T l o T l s m c o f J r s d H c d i E e t A o h a o I G i r l h R G r a S P r F t r e r r l k L T o T a w c o t f O r s c i E t c k I G i H g R G h r S a W F e r k t c o a w H d t a l W O r t E P l c k o n H g i h a W s t C o S H o t c o H d a l W r t s o H P l o n M N D i s t C N o S o H L o r y L s o H k L e y M N D O s h N n o U i L n o r a y L T c n k L a e i o o y O s O u h t w r n U i L G r n o d a D w T r c n k g e b A B a i o o M r l N o O u r t w r f L G I n r k e d e f h o i R D w t d r a r c w k g n e b A B a g i z M r l s N o R i r r d c o n o T H f e I n P k e y e e r f e a h o M T J i n c R t d l a d l d r c w o n R a g i z N e N J C s k R i r d m o c o l n o T H 3 u o e P y e r t a A e a G w M T J n c r E l 2 d l d a d o E R l N e N J C g C k O h e k m o n l 3 u o e n C W t T t a A G w e t c i n c r E c 2 a d E i J r a l u g C l A O y n h e k i n a D H e n C W t o T l c g e t c i e N n c d e c n N G n i B J l n R J r a u d l A c - y d n B i i c r a D A c H L o A J l c e g g s W J e N N d l e a n J N G o n B J l L - n k n R d c e - d e B i r c n O G r s A c L n o P O h A n J l n I e g s W 8 A J d a N o c T l a k J o r r i o E w a L T - n k t 1 n n t c e S P C e u o r n n O G i o g s n o P O h f o a l i a n W W I l n I S w R 8 A l l b d a E e t o c t T k Y i l o r r w 2 i E t w a e T y t 1 n x n t m Y c N S P C T W S R n o u o E n 2 n E i u t o g B n i e f o u a l i a a W W N W I S w c R m l l b E e t A t o P c Y i l L G s w 2 L e t R O E J e B y 8 S x m t Y M W J N T a W S R n o E n 2 R E u U t B n a i e 1 u a u N W R T c L m O A o P c h S L G s L e R o O E J B 8 S E e t Q M W J y G a A R E s t - U 8 P L a 1 R u N R T N L H O u e 1 s h S d E e n o N L H K E R A e T l Q o y G A I k r E s t - n 8 P L e o n - R N N E t R E H R G u e 1 s r N n o d E e e I n N L R s o H u n T K R A T l l o O n i I k r n 8 c a e F o o n - A t S E o t R E W R G R e w N 1 e r s N n o t e I n R R s o c u n S T E l B O n i o e 8 c A e a e F H o A u t l 3 S n o t w W r R e w N l 1 e s W t n n 2 i R t s c u S E B u l e R W o e A e e H o G u d l 3 n a e t w S J r i l W t l N W n 2 i c R t s u l i u l e R u W i a o G d a e o S J W i m s t l h e N W c R l i y e R u n i a n L a h o W i o m s h e t h H C y e R a n n g n L a h i g o n e i t R h H C a u n k g e l i g r n o e i R P u k e l G H i r o P d n G H o 1 o n d 2 t o n c 1 s o J 1 2 e o i n t w 2 t o c n 1 e u h e t s J o 2 e l o i t t w u s n y a R W e u h o e t o u l o s t R u H H s y a R W o o r u s R H H o C n r o s C t t n n y c n n o s J t t c u u n n s s t J t y c n s o n s H t n t H J y o c u r b u e n s s s u r t J t e b s o e l s H H C W l t n t H y o r o b e s u r A W e u b e l H C W l R s o d n A W u a e R d n n H o e d r r a e o H Y H o e B G y i e k r r A T e r t r g e H Y n B G y r a U s e k o W c n t A T l r r g J r n e P e e K O n o r a U e o W e o c h t l t d e t n S R J c r n l P 1 v e K O r t v o n h 2 p e o A h o a L r e a t e t n S R c l c l l o r s 1 v e P l r l e t O t n i h 2 e W B B A e t o a L u s e a A c l l T t h h h h h o r s O e H P o l l O t t i h e n e W B B r e R u P s n p p p p p A y T h h h h h O H t o i p t e e h o e R e R l P s f h p p p p p y p l m m m m m E l n s p W i e 4 R e m u c l m l s V h H e J l l I c m m m m m E l n s s l o W i 0 0 0 5 0 t a e g P i e m c L s s 0 i V H e o g J d l I c M a t v H 2 3 5 7 9 l o d 0 5 0 0 0 t g i n e C 9 e L E E s 0 E g d n o M a H 9 7 5 3 2 n d o o o o o n r r 9 E E l L E T t t t t t a e n H a r m t e p E o o o o o O n l r T i i l L T t t t t t a o R E H o a p p p p p v o O m o e E O n l T u O r r m i p R P o e L M u u u u u o p i f r F R E v p p p p p O m T o T e A O r l R p R v P e i o u u u u M u T r F E a S 1 T E L T e o A S l R 2 v i V C E E a S 1 I e E L o t S 2 L M u V C E I I e o t L L M R u I o L R 3 3 3.5 3 .4 .5 .4 .5 .1 .6 26 • • • 1. • • 2. 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Figure 3.7 The scope of Metrolink operation Figure 3.8 Theory of Constraints; Theoretical use of capacity 08:00 – 09:00 hours 8 D e t L u E o E T I R A F G E S 8 8 K K D e D t e L R t A u E E I u o E T E o I W K R R L A F G E S P 8 D K D K g E D L e O L n R t T A E i I E u t S E A I I E o W K n S i G F R L F T O D E D L S P K D E D A E g L E G O A L n s G T g H y i E n m t n S E A i I W W e N E c I t l D o n S J d i n G t F A i l F g G t y R T O D e E D e y n H o D e i i D l O L Y f p t S I e K b E r A t l r C r D i F t R E G d R A o o o s G g H L R y a y D a U n M n m n B h i C M W W e n E N E e E c t c t B l o D l I A o B c Y J J d n r t s T A i l J g s s G t y L F R S R d r n n B D e e y n h N H o e i n F i A D c 1 l B I e e O Y f g p t I e W 1 a J t b r T l t l r C r u E v t D t i F t R e d R o e E o o o S e t l a a L r R y H a y n D a e U u c n d M n B o h D n e D r l C M e c y n E R E e y H t o c S B t l o o l I A r D B J i c e Y L e J G t r e e s R T s i J X s l s D L L F a y d 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I b T e I e a f T E y K P e s f S s P o f o d l B e a r h t r d E W l d r M - e i e l n M / a e o r C s i c x r y e d o t t e k S t k a R d R l D l r B P t H s o A e o O l g c s n T n t a r e n P u d e s c g A d c N d a n s a r s M e l t n i l n M O R c s e E n a a c A p o d C o c e e n a i T a O r C w R l e s n S c e l t J r e c o r a e J e L l u i a a d a i l O t c C i R G g A l a g t y E D g u H f J H G T S T g d C T r t R I N a - L E C k Y n a h d J d r i a ' e d l S e s n H e d l a s M s r l c n c s o R L C C c i M C E o t A E u 1 d R P a H K p y f u v J o I h o u r I n d L o E A M o s l 1 l r y r s w n t t n n b e r E T I a f N y K a e P o a L t o O a C M V c t r o d P l e g a e e n M e a e r C s x e r u d o s t t e h S n A W s C D l n C s r o d C T e o O l y h s i N a u n d g A d t a e e d a t t l a r n B e l l i l M O R n E n a t C A c p o i e e r T O L r R C M d e s s e A C W c e c a a e J I u S d i l r t l R G g g E D g l h L H M J r f J H G S d C o s r l G t s n d i t a M P e o M V e r e n d l a a l c e o S a e f o h E C n 8 C t t o n n l y s K p G f J e n d g o I n c E E A M 1 s l e c l l r a y d T N n n e r p e G o N s d a M J a m E r a L l i e t t & L P l e a R a T a e e u o r r e A e u s a t g L h t A W S C C O r d y o h I b B e H a n u E n B W t e R G t S i l i n B n N C o t r O d M y d s H e C W T H r c E a m S S O e W r e R l h L r t n J r a O o s l G t ' S t r n I M s o r R e P r e N T P a a s e k e o S D e f h E o d n T 8 a t o o n n l s E G n T g e n d n D g s y N c C A R 1 i s e c S l a n A d T c N d p e G o W I s d a M J d m A E i r L S d l i e t H & L o J l R E a R T a e r E o r r A n t n a t g L i t O A S C i O M G o B I e b n B H e C n u E n W C l R O D I G S i k i N G W D R o t K W d d o ' r y H T r H N E S F t m V S O e W n R e R d R r t n a a O M 4 s ' L e S A r n A I E n s r R e P A O n N T P a s e k 1 D s P o d T a P a o A d P A E F s n T g n D k N o R m s y N C M A R i s S e r n A t c o d F r W I s t d A H d i S S L d k H o o J R E C r E u n r n A t o r n o i O A i U i d M C G o B e n n r C W r R o C l O D D a I K k f G W k R a R w W W d o T o ' r f N R C N R S F c t t P V Y I ’ n 3 d f S a e a h e o e y M A O 4 s i N L e t A A n t 2 E n l h r y c l n R y l t r P 1 s t d F s n s P e l a P A d n i A l a e s e T u T O k N o a R m e o a F M s T t C l e e a r t n i s o b e r s ’ r e s t i L r H d S u i L T l S A k o r k r C u n r b o w o r h o m n l L w i U c m d W h d R a A h C o o r l a n r t W r r t o R a n a p o e c T l f r k i e a R w O d o W y a a e H o n r o f N C s c T t B P Y I ’ w o 3 a m e f S B e a h K e o M D E B H s e y n l M e i N t e n t 2 l h r y l c l o u t R y l t r r w s t d n a s e e l h s d n i y l a e e T u T e O a a e o a s T n t n C n n l n R H e s d h a 8 d n i s b e n i s r ’ r e e n n r i L r N c c u i L o T l S l 1 s r k r k t n u c G o A J b J w l C o h l r m n M a R l L w t c d m W h a u J A b h e o l r l e a t o n r t r l R t a n h p a e o e U k s d c t o F l r i e O d o y a a B e H c n r u o o B r c c s i s B b T B e B t w o o n a m a e e W B c o k K l M D E B H s K w n l M b e s n x e f R l o i o u t h r w B W n y a C E l e t h s t o o o d s y e r a a t t n n n n n A a R H e d s h 8 d i h F n y i r r o e l n n r N c c s o L M M l 1 t u s b k k t n u c d G g o i A J J l C N e n l r M a R B t c m u J b n e l m e n c o n e u r l t n h h a e o U k C s d t t o F J a R t t u B e c K c u o f B r o l c c s l i B b s m B e t M J o d H n d a e E W e A c o o h k a l o r l K w h b s n x a P r f t r R r o i l L T o h T B W n y C E l c o t f t o o o r s s c i t r t I G i t A a R G e r S h F F r e o l r k s L M M a w u t b k O g E N e n c k B c H g h m n m a W n c u t c n h o o H d t J a l W a R t t r t u e c K f P l o l o n l s m i J s t d H C d o S E e H o A o h a o r l h a P r t s r o H r l L T o T M N D c o f r s c N i o t L r I G i R y G L r S F e k r k L e y a w O s t O h n E n U i c k o H g a h T a W c n o t c a i o o H d O a l W u t r t w r L P l G r d o n i D w r g s t C o S k H e b o A B M r l N o r s n o H f I k e e f i M N h D o R t d a r N c w o n L a g i z r s d y L R i r c o n o T H k e L P e y e r y e a O M T J s n c d l h d l o n n U i R o N e N J C k a T m o c l u n 3 o o a i t o a A G w O u r E t 2 a d w r E L G r d C l g O h e D w k r n g k e n e b C W t B A T M r l e t c i N o n c r c n f i I k e e J r a u f i h l A o y n R t d i a a r D c w H n o a g i z l c g s e d N R i d e r n c o n o N G T H n e B J l P n y R e r d e a c - M T J d n c B d i l c r l d A c o L R A J N e e g N J C s W k J N l a J m o l u o 3 o L - n k t a A G w e e r E r n O G 2 a s d n E o P O h n C l l n I g 8 A d O a h e o c T k k n o r r i E w a e n C W t T t T 1 n n t e c t c i S P C n c u o c n i o g i f o a l i a W W J r a I u S w R l l l A b E y e t n t i Y i l a w 2 D H t o e y l x c m g Y N e N T d W S R n o E e n 2 n E u N G B n t n i e B J l u a n R N W d c c - d A m B o P i c c L r G L A e s c L R O E J A B J 8 S e g t s W M W J J N l a R a J U o 1 a L - n k u R T L e O e r n O G S h s n o P O o h n l n I e Q E 8 A y d a o G c A T k E t - o r r 8 P s i L E w a R T N t 1 n N n t H c S P C u e u o 1 s n i o g E e d N L f o n a l a i H W W K I R A w S T l R o l l b E e t t I k Y i l n r w 2 e t n - o e y x E m t R E Y N R G T S W R n o E n 2 E N n u r B n e I t o i e R u s o a u n N W T c l O n A m i o P c L G 8 L a e s c R o O A F E J t B 8 S S o t W M W J R e w N 1 e R a s U t 1 R a n c u S R T E L B O o S e h A e e H o l 3 u n e t w Q E y r G A l E W t - 8 P s L n 2 i R t s u N N H u l e u e 1 s W R E e d o N L G d n H K R a A e T l o J S i I k t n r l e N W n c - R o E l t R E i R G u N n i a r e I o R s o u n T l o W O n i m s 8 a h e c o A F t S o W y e R R e w N 1 e s n t n L R n c S E a h B i o o e A e e H t l 3 u n t w h H C r l a n W g n 2 i t s u u l e g n W R e o i G R d a e S J i u t k l N W e c R l l i i u r i a o o P W m s h e G H y e R n n L a h i d o n t h H C a o n g o n g t n o e c 1 i R s u J k 2 e i l w i ) r o n e h e P t o l t G H u n s y a W o d u n s R H o H o o o n t r o c 1 i s J 2 i t C w n n e h e t o o s l c t u t t n s y a W o y c n n u s J R H c e u u n s s H o t J t s o r r s H t n t H y o r e i s u r C e b n e l H C W l o o s d A W t t n R y c n n d n J t c u u n s s a e t J t s o s H t n t H o e s y o b r b e s r r u r e b r e l H Y H C W l B G y o e k A W A T u r u g e o R n r a U o W d c n t l J r n P a e K O o w e o H h H o e e t n S R c l r r 1 v ( r t n h 2 H Y A o a L B e a G y c e l k l o r e r P A T l l r O r t i g e W e B B n u r A e a U o T W c O H o t l 1 t J r n e P e K 2 O R P o s s y e o h t t e e t n S e R c R e l t 1 v r l t n h u 2 l A o a E L l n s e a W U o i c l s l o r s c e P l l s O V t R H i e J e W B B l I u l o A t g T i e O H o L s t e g e d e M R a H P s d y E E k E e R e v l h h i 3 l E n l l n s W g L i T t i c H a s V H e E l J 1 O c n l l T I c i l o n t g o i e R E L i a s O m o + + + g o 0 d O r M t a H p R d n P e n r r F % E E c T E T 2 e t A s i l R v i i E a S l 0 % % % 1 a L E T a L o e S H a 2 d y x E O V n C E l T i I e 0 5 0 0 o t R E O m L o M n u B E M O r I p R o M P e I 1 9 9 8 M r F L T R T e A l R v i E a S 1 E L o S 2 V C E I e t L M u I o L R 30 Chapter 3: Baseline capacity 31

3.5.2 Manchester Piccadilly terminal platforms 3.6 Planned work 3.6.2.2 Control Period 6 (CP6) signalling renewals 3.7 Baseline growth The Theory of Constraints (ThoC) work identified that • Todmorden on average platforms 1 - 12 are 69 percent used, only The opportunity for enhancing the railway is greatly 3.7.1 Freight • Smithy Bridge taking into account whether or not a platform is improved if there is synergy with planned renewals The Freight Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) identified occupied. This average is depressed by the low use of works. Where there is no renewal on the horizon, then • Vitriol Works that the 2004/05 level of traffic to Trafford Park was platforms 10 -12 due to the single lead access. the enhancement scheme would have to pay for and • Ashton Moss North Jn around 17 to 22 intermodal trains a day, with a justify the full cost of the alteration. The most significant prediction that by 2014/15 that would become 29 a Platforms 1 - 9 have over 80 percent as an all day • Dore average. In addition, there is a significant use of discipline for this is signalling, where a major proportion day. The RUS also identified that the 2008 timetable • Milner Royd platforms by more than one train at a time, especially of the overall cost is in design and testing, and the allowed for 33 freight paths a day to Trafford Park. at peak times. increment on that from individual items will be relatively • Norton 3.7.2 Passenge r small. Unfortunately, for the majority of the area of the • Frodsham The use of platforms 4 - 8 is dominated by long distance study, there are few renewals for the foreseeable future The July 2007 White Paper: Delivering a Sustainable • Mickle Trafford services occupying platforms for around half an hour. that could be a catalyst for efficiency. Railway identified that Government wished the railway The use of platforms 1 - 3 is dominated by local services • Ashburys. industry to deliver capacity to deal with additional and trains to and from Manchester Airport all with 3.6.1 Committed infrastructure schemes passenger demand equating to an average of three and 3.6.2.3 Control Period 7 (CP7) signalling renewals relatively short layovers. Platforms 4 - 8 are used on The following schemes are committed and have been a half percent per year between 2007/08 and 2013/14. • Astley average by two trains an hour, platforms 1 - 3 by almost assumed to have been implemented ahead of any work Figure 3.10 identifies the level of passenger traffic in four trains an hour. as a result of this study. As such they have been taken to • Baguley Fold 2007/08 split by corridor, and illustrates the level of form a part of the baseline: • Diggle Jn passenger traffic in 2013/14 if demand on each of the The analysis of platforms 1 - 4 indicates that as trains corridors increases by the average 3.5 percent in the • Guide Bridge are lengthened and current vehicles are replaced with • Liverpool – Manchester (via Chat Moss) electrification intervening years. 23 metre length vehicles the multiple use by two or (from Edge Hill to Victoria and Castlefield Junction) • Romiley Jn more services becomes problematic. Coupled with the • Stalybridge remodelling • New Mills Central need to maintain capacity at levels consistent with a • Totley Tunnel East resilient timetable, for which the ThoC study suggests • Metrolink extensions to Rochdale, Ashton-under-Lyne • Huddersfield area. the current 80 percent on conventional signalling should and East Didsbury not be exceeded. The analysis of train lengthening 3.6.2.4 Control Period 8 (CP8) signalling renewals • extension of London to Manchester services to 11 suggests that significant extra services will require • Edge Hill additional platform capacity. vehicles (signalling/platform works) • Liverpool Lime Street 3.5.3 Castlefield Corridor • W10 freight gauge clearance on the Chat Moss route • Chester The Castlefield Corridor between Castlefield Jn and • Greater Manchester and Yorkshire High Level Output • Chinley. Piccadilly East Jn is the key route for services crossing Specification (HLOS) interventions: Manchester. 3.6.3 Metrolink - platform lengthening necessary for Control Period 4 Beyond the extensions due for opening in 2013, there The maximum capacity of the corridor is derived from (CP4) are further extensions currently expected to be made at the through platforms at Manchester Piccadilly where various stages in terms of procurement and there is two minutes reoccupation and two minutes - additional Northern stabling commitment. Some are expected to be opened in 2015; dwell. In practice, Manchester Oxford Road platforms others have yet to gain Transport and Works Act Order are used in the same way as Manchester Piccadilly’s, - Salford Crescent improvements powers. The options below are expected to have been partly because there is no need to do otherwise and - linespeed improvements (Liverpool – Manchester - brought into use by 2016, but there are other options partly because the existing layout restricts the use of Leeds). beyond these which are at an earlier stage of parallel moves there. This fact limits trains to being four development. minutes apart between Manchester Piccadilly and In future development work on the Manchester Hub the Castlefield Jn. recently announced electrification between Manchester • extend from Chorlton-cum-Hardy to Manchester Airport and via Preston and Huyton to Wigan will be 3.5.4 Manchester Airport included although not due for completion by 2014. • create a second route between Cornbrook and In a manner similar to Manchester Piccadilly, the Manchester Victoria. signalling at Manchester Airport station allows two 3.6.2 Expected renewals trains to be put into the same platform, a facility which The following renewals items, shown in Figure 3.9, 3.6.4 Other aspirations is used frequently. The signalling controls at Manchester are expected within the time horizon of any There are other aspirations for improved services in the Airport station that allow multiple trains into the implementation of the Hub study, and hence offer study area driving infrastructure interventions, such as platforms prevent this happening for six-car operation. opportunities for value for money enhancements as an reinstating a curve at Todmorden, and extending the Thus as train lengthening takes place through Control incremental cost: passing loop at Darwen to achieve a new service from Period 5 (CP5) and additional services require to access to Manchester and more frequent services to Manchester Airport it will become increasingly difficult 3.6.2.1 CP5 signalling and switch and crossing renewals Blackburn. Currently there is no commitment to build to operate the station with the existing three platforms. • Allerton Jn these or other aspirations and therefore they have not • Earlestown Jns been included in the base infrastructure. • Bamfurlong Jn • Ashburys West Jn • Woodley Jn • Helsby Jn • Dore Jn. 32 Chapter 3: Baseline capacity 33

Figure 3.9 Planned and expected S&C and signalling renewals and enhancements Figure 3.10 Baseline passenger growth 8 D e t L u E o E T I R A F Corridor Corridor journeys (m) 2007/08 Corridor journeys (m) 2013/14 G E S 8 K K D e R t A E I u E o W K R L

P 1 Southport via Wigan 3.5 4.3 D D g E L O L n T i E t S E A I I n S i G F F T O D E D L S K E A

E 2 Preston and the North via Bolton 16 19.7 G A s G g H y n m n i W W e N E c t l D o J d n t A i l g G t y R D e e y n H o e i i D l O Y f p t I e b r t l r C r D i F t R d R o o o L R a y 3 Blackburn 1.8 2.2 D a U M n B h C M n E E e t c B o l I A B c Y J r s T J s s L F S R d r n n B h N n F A c 1 B I e e g W 1 a J t T l u E v t t e e E o S e t l a a r y H n e u c n d o D n e D r l e c y R y H o S t

l 4 Bradford via Rochdale 3 3.7 o r D J i e L e G t e e R s i X l D L a y d f s h E s L d e I d A E s l n I u w g l o r r i o d e F F L e o I h a r n o H a a e t r M f r e e S P G c i h L e h o t e r n J B t D e M d a E g g l R R A r n g f l i D r o y r n G r t S d d y o e a e n E A c a H S i 5 Yorkshire and the Humber & the North East via Leeds 17.1 21.0 c n H J r n s e B h y l w O i N C i l D J r M r r d e B e W d l M y e R y D i e e o e y e G o e o N f y l h l r i d d U t n m R o p b d y y e r l m a y r H o 1 a o e L H H W w e 1 - i H R R M r S o e w F l

t 6 Glossop / Hadfield 1.5 1.8 e L u o L F d L o A I S e n n R 1 e c d e n t R 1 u l N M J y d s - o r e T p H a t t O n r o n s u g W N f W T o c a o e t E n J E E y X i R M E m n

h 7 Marple / Romiley 1.3 1.6 r M d i e n G n N C G U a s r u D o y p t t I n D i B B A b n o n I o r S y r e U e d o r l R t H B u D e n a G m s s l b n l r B y l c i d d e J e o e B l e l M E r h h d D o t l t 8 Yorkshire & the East Midlands via Sheffield 8.6 10.6 n B h w i u t y e H e i i o h f r s N n S M r e C s i c F E N v o J - e d a n o E e G g M h o F l t o r - d D D n o t D i s o I r o n r y e t B w N r l 9 Buxton 1.9 2.3 t h o e h R h B u s n e E n - a t s s l l c b a i e G c r B A y V J h h H d J E s e n v d t o l s e t l s d p l o d i r u i A n s w S w N y s r a a c e e o o e Y o o l M e J M t h h h G r o R W u n S R n y e d s l c g U l w s l C r B i w t W J m e a u

o 10 London, Birmingham and the South (via WCML) 39.1 48.1 y B e r l e s e u r d s r e s h F B n d V z p H T u t s o e i y p k d e F c i N y l d N b i r u S r a n J p o e a R e d h h a o l o m E A c D e h u n n l l n R s s H h y P P S J i s O R o L g g l b e E r e e u A l e n r C R P d u h a d L c A d v h o i B W r J s r o H K s s N E a n D D k l l r o y l A n B

o 11 Manchester Airport 2.3 2.8 c n C a D n e A o n H i M t l n y k a o e m c r t T r y o e b E L a O n n o l h J C w W v d t a a d g l N t l c 3 u h e i e T o e P d l y d H U e t n J 2 o t g O m i e r t b h E r i t H E S y t t H t s H L T e e e C H f n i a d s ' r R t l p l i A R s m o r i r w l t s e l L s u e r i o n o i l e e T s f S P f o d l B e r h W d r - i e l / o i y e k t a R d l r B P t A

R 12 Chester via Northwich 2.1 2.6 c n t a r e n P e s c N n s M t n c s e c o d C c n a w l E c l J r o a e J i a a a O C l a y t u T g R T a - L C k Y h d r ' d S s H e s r c n R L c i M E S o E u 1 d y u v o h r d L o o A 1 r s w n t t I b T I a f E y K e P o o a c t r d l e n M a e r C s x r d o t t e S n R D l C H s o e o O l g s u d g A d a d a a r s e l i l n M O R E n a A p o e e i T L O r C 13 Liverpool via Irlam 1.6 2.0 R e s n e t e c e l u d i l t t c i R G g g E D g H f J H G T S d C r N s n a J d i a e l e n d l a M l c a o C C C t A P K p f J I o I n E E A M s l l y n n e r N a a L t M V P e a e e e u s h A W C r d y h a t e t l n B n C r O M d s e C W c a S r l h L J r 14 Liverpool / Chester via Warrington 5.5 6.8 o s l G t t M o r e a e o S e f h E n 8 t o n n l s G e n d g c 1 e c l a d T N p e G o s d a M J m E r l i e t & L l a R T a e o r r A a t g L t S C O o I b B e H n u E n W R G S i i N o t d y H T H r E m S O e W e R r t n a O ' S r n I s r R e P N T P a s

e Total 105.3 129.4 k D o d T a o E n T g n D s y N C A R i s S n A c d W I d A i S L d H o J R E r E n t n i O A i M G B e n C C l O D I k G W D R K W d o ' r N S F t V n R d R a M 4 s L e A A E n A O n 1 s P a P A d P A F s k N o R m M e r t o F r s t H d S k o C u n r A o r o i U d C o n r W r R o a f k a R w W T o f N C c t P Y I ’ 3 f S e a h e o e y i N t n t 2 l h r y c l R y l t r s t d n s e l n i l a e e T u T O a e o a s T t C l e a n i s b e s ’ r e i L r u i L T l S r k r b w o h m n l L w c m d W h a A h o r l a t r t R a n p o e c l r i e O d o y a a e H n r o s T B w o a m e B K M D E B H s n l M e e l o u t r w a e h s d y e a n n n n n R H s d h 8 d n i r e n n r N c c o l 1 s k t n u c G o A J J l C l r M a R t u J b e l e o n r l t h a e U k s d t o F B c u o B r c c s i B b B e t o n a e W c o k l K w b s n x f R o i h B W n y C E l t t o o o s r t t A a e h F r o l s L M M u b k g N e n B c m n m n c u n h o t J a R t t u e c K f o l l s m J d H d E e A o h a o r l h a P r t r r l L T o T c o f r s c i t I G i R G r S F e r k a w t O E c k H g h a W t c o H d a l W r t P l o n i s t C o S H o s o H M N D N o L r y L k L e y O s h n n i U o a T c n o a i o O u t w r L G r d D w r g k e b B A M r l N o r n f I k e e f i h o R t d a r c w n a g i z s d R i r c o n o T H e P y e r e a M T J n c d l l d o R N e N J C k m o l u 3 o t a A G w r E 2 a d E C l g O h e k n e n C W t T e t c i n c c i J r a u l A y n i a D H o l c g e N d e n N G n B J l n R d c - d B i c r A c L A J e g s W J N l a J o L - n k e e r n O G s n o P O h n l n I 8 A d a o c T k o r r i E w a T t 1 n n t c S P C u o n i o g f o a l i a W W I S w R l l b E e t t Y i l w 2 t e y x m Y N T W S R n o E n 2 E u B n t i e u a N W c A m o P c L G L e s R O E J B 8 S t M W J R a U 1 a u R T L O S h o e Q E y G A E t - 8 P s L R N N H u e 1 s E e d N L n H K R A T l o I k n r e n - o E t R E R G N n r e I o R s o u n T l O n i 8 a c o A F t S o W R e w N 1 e s t R n c S E B o e A e e H l 3 u n t w r l W n 2 i t s u u l e W R o G d a e S J i t l N W c R l s i u i a t o W m s h e y e R n n n L a h i o t h H C e a n g g n e i R u k e l m i r o P e G H c d n o o n n t o c 1 s J a 2 i w n e h e h t o l t u s y a W o n u s R H H e o r C n & o s t t n s y c n n l J c u u n s s t J t a s o s H t n t H y o r b e s u r e b e l w H C W l o A W e u R d n n a e d e H o e r e r r t H Y B G y e k A T c r g r g e n r a U o W e c t n l 1 J r n i P e K 2 O o l p e o h l t e e t n S R c l t 1 v x r t n h u 2 a A o a L e a o c l l e o r s e P l l O t R i n e W B B u A T O H o g d t e i R P s y n s e R e l h a l E l n s W i c d s V H e J l I c d l o t g n i e L s g d e M a H a d n E E E n k l n L 5 6 7 T a H a c E O n l T a i P P P o l R E a O m o O r r p R P e C C C t M P r F T T e A l R v i E a S 1 E L o S 2 V C E I e t L M u I o L R  Chapter 4: Drivers for change 

Chapter 4 Drivers for change

.1 Manchester Hub Phase One study 1 • Manchester Airport delivers substantial economic benefits to the North which will grow as the Airport 4.1.1 Phase One of the Manchester Hub study was led by the grows. Surface access capacity is the most significant Northern Way. The Phase One report identifies the constraint to the Airport’s future growth. Increasing importance to the North’s sustainable economic growth public transport mode share is the preferred way to of improvements to rail services across the North. It overcome these constraints. identifies the potential benefits that addressing the Manchester Hub problem can bring to the whole of the • The North’s ports provide substantial economic benefit North. to the North which will grow as the throughput grows. Growth in the throughput of intermodal containers 4.1.2 As the Phase One report shows, the evidence base combined with increasing congestion on the strategic underpinning the economic case for addressing the road network will increase the demand to move Manchester Hub problem is strong. In particular, the containers by rail. Phase One report establishes that: • The North’s eight City Region Development • City region economies drive regional and national Programmes have the specific function of specifying growth, which was also recognised by the Manchester how the key economic drivers (the city regions) can Independent Economic Review. The North’s city regions exploit their own strengths to deliver accelerated perform below the national average and are not economic growth. They explicitly recognise the meeting their full potential. The Government has set importance of expanding the Manchester labour market out its vision that each region should perform to its full through transport enhancements to support economic potential. commuting, enhancing the transport links between the main centres of each region, and access to Manchester • To support economic growth there needs to be Airport. adequate capacity, so that journeys can be made reliably and with reasonable journey times; • The strategic road network across the Pennines and around Manchester experiences network stress and - within city regions congestion. Even with committed and planned - between city regions investment this will worsen over time. The trans Pennine rail links and links to Manchester - to access international gateways. experience crowding. On trans Pennine routes in particular there is limited capacity to cater for • Enhancing connectivity within the North’s city regions, additional growth. between the North’s city regions and to international gateways will accelerate the North’s economic growth. • The Northern Way has identified the Manchester Hub as the most significant rail bottleneck in the North and • Enhancing the trans Pennine corridor will support the so the most significant rail impediment to maximising growth of Manchester and Leeds, the North’s two economic growth. This is because it constrains the largest city regions as well as Sheffield and will benefit growth of rail commuter services, rail links between the the wider North. North’s city regions and between the North and the • Manchester’s rail network has facilitated the city’s South, rail links to Manchester Airport and rail freight. sustainable economic growth by supporting the growth of city centre employment. However, on-train crowding and the current scope and reach of the network limits .2 Economic scenarios the scope for future growth. 4.2.1 The Phase One study establishes two economic • Linking areas of economic need with locations with scenarios of growth in the North. The two scenarios are stronger economic growth supports the stronger areas called ‘Trend’ and ‘Trend Plus’: by extending labour markets, while at the same time • The ‘Trend’ scenario took the Government’s economic facilitating spill over effects into the weaker areas. and planning assumptions and used these to determine the economic growth in the study area

1Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement, The Northern Way, April 2009  Chapter 4: Drivers for change 7

• The ‘Trend Plus’ scenario represents the successful commuting to Manchester is the dominant flow. The Figure 4.1 Passenger growth rates achievement of the three northern Regional Economic corridors to Marple/Romiley, Buxton and Manchester Strategies, along with all eight City Regions’ Airport corridors have the highest rates of growth in the e t o t a 0 e % 0 3 R Development Programmes. The ‘Trend Plus’ scenario Trend scenario. In the Trend Plus scenario, the corridors g % % % % % % % % % % % % % % / 2 a 1 h    7  1 8 2  1  9 8  / 9 r ...... t e 9 2  2 7 2 2       2   4 v w 1 effectively sees the growth in the ‘Trend’ scenario to Bradford via Rochdale, Marple/Romiley and Buxton 0 o A 0 2 r 2 happen earlier rather than generate some have the highest growth rates. Greater Manchester G o t 0 % % % % % % % fundamentally different conditions. Consequently Passenger Transport Executive (GMPTE) evidence h % % % % % % % % 8 3 t    1 0 7 / 9 ...... 0 7 2 9     0 . w ...... / 9 8 1 8   7 o 7 2 4  2  9 2 1 8 2 solutions that are credible in the ‘Trend’ scenario are suggests the most significant growth in commuting into r  2 1 0 0 0 0 0 7  8 7 9 7 8 8 G 9 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 also credible in ‘Trend Plus’. Manchester has been on routes including Bolton, 2

2 ) m 5 r 0 Rochdale and Stalybridge . ( 9 7 9 9 o 3 2 s  0  1 2 8   9 0 / . d 1 7 8 1 y

For each scenario, forecasts for Gross Value Added i . . . . 9    2  8 0 2 0  r e ...... 5 s r 2  8  9 n 9 2    2     o r 0 0 u 7 1  2 C l u (GVA), population, households, workplace employment, Recent rail forecasting work carried out by the 2 2 o P residence based employment, and unemployment have Department for Transport (DfT) with Northern Passenger J d e t o t n a 0 e % 8 2 R g e % % % % % % % % % % % % % been derived. These with other transport-related Transport Executives (PTEs) has shown that previous % / 0 a r 6 h 1  1 9    1 2 2 8  9 2 / 9 r ...... t e 7 1 T               v 3 w 0 variables (rail cost, car ownership, car time, bus cost and forecasts tended to underestimate growth on commuter 0 o A 0 2 r 2 bus time) formed the inputs to a rail demand routes. This work, whilst not yet complete, appears to G o t 0 %

forecasting model. The model is comprised of a number support levels of growth in excess of the “Trend” scenario. h % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 8 2 t 0 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...... w / 9 o 7 4 1  0  8 8 0 8 1    9 8 7

of modules: r 0 0      7     7    5 G 0 GMPTE has carried out additional work to assess the 2 2

• MOIRA : The standard railway modelling tool MOIRA Gross Value Added to the Northern economy by ) 0 m r 0 ( 0 0 0 0 o 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 s . / 7 1 9  d y . . . . i 9     2  2  was used to predict the impact of improved train facilitating such connections as those contained in the  9 ...... r 1 e 7  7  r 1 n 7 2    2 2  2  6 o r 0  1 2 2 C u services. Hub work. This work identifies that there are significant 2 1 o positive impacts beyond those identified by the J e t o t a 0 • Airport Demand Model : Demand identified as being as e % 0 3 R g % / % % % % % % % % % % % % Northern Way. This work specifically considers the % 2 a 6 h / 9 r  9 9 1 8 2   1 9   8 8 ...... t . e 9 a result of growth at Manchester Airport. 2 v 1  1  0   2 2 1 1 2 1 w 2 0 1 impact that improved rail connections have on 0 o A 0 2 r 2 • New Flows Model : Benefit from creating new flows influencing economic decisions including; locations of G o t 0 % % h

businesses, changes in the sectoral mix, where people % % % % % % % % % % % % % 8 3 t 8 / 3 through Manchester. .    8 7  0  0 7  7 0 8 ...... w . / 9 7 o 7 2 2 9 1 1 7 0 7   7 1 0 9 2 choose to live and work, and the impacts these changes r 0 0 0  7 8  9 8 7    7   7 G 0 2 1 • Crowding Model : To identify the benefits from have on business productivities levels. GMPTE intend to 2 ) 9 m

providing less crowded travel. r 0 ( 0 2  publish this work separately. 9 3 1 8   0 8 1 1  9 o 3 s . 0 1 7 2 / d . . . . y 2 2  9 0   0 7  i ...... 9 1 r e 1   7 r 2 8 2    2 2  2  n 8 o 7 1 2 2 r 0

• Freight Model : To identify the benefits from growth in C u 2 1 d o J n

container traffic. e e r t . The conditional outputs o t a 0 e T 8 2 R g % / % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 0 a h / 9 r 8 2  7  9  1  9  1 8  7 t ...... e

• Wider Economic Benefits Model : To identify the 7 1 v

4.3.1 From a combination of the economic evidence base and w 0 0 2 2 2  2    2 2  2 2 2 2 o A 0 2 r

benefits to the wider northern economy from resultant 2 modelling the Phase One work identified 10 conditional G

improvements in agglomeration, labour markets and o t

outputs for rail service improvements across the 0 % h 8 2 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % t / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . w ...... / imperfect competition. 9 o 7 Manchester Hub. These outputs are described as 1 9 0  8 9 1 9  9 1 1  9  8 r 0 0               G 3 0 2 The Sponsors’ Group agreed that these models would conditional because their realisation depends on it 2 being found possible in Phase Two to identify ) m 0 r 0 ( 0 0 0 0

be used in the Phase Two appraisal to understand the o 2 s 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 / . d    2 y i . . . . 9 1 1 9  9 0 2   8

interventions that are both affordable and represent r e ...... 6 r 1  2 2 2 potential impacts of rail service improvements. Further n o 7 2 2  2 2 2  2  r 0 4  1 2 2 C u 2

value for money. 1 o

details of the two economic scenarios and the J 8 0 0 s r 0 0 modelling approach can be found in the Phase One 0 / 3 y 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

The Phase One report identifies 10 conditional outputs o . 7 1 1 0 e . . . d   1   9   0 8  0 i ...... n 5 r r 9 7  0

technical reports which are available on the Northern r  1 2 2 8 1 1 1  1  0 u that the solution should seek to meet. These are; 2  1 1 o o ) C 1 J

Way’s website. m 1. Capacity and flexibility ( s d

Figure .1 shows the levels of exogenous growth by rail e e ) 2. Carbon reduction L corridor that the economic models suggested would be L a i M v

present. C t s

. Performance d W l a e E a i ffi v From Figure .1 it can be seen that within the North, h ( t e

. Journey times r h h o t commuter and interurban services on the five corridors S n N u a n o i o e t o v

to Yorkshire and the Humber and North East via Leeds, S h . Growth centres in Greater Manchester t g l t s e n o d i h r

Preston and the North via Bolton, Yorkshire and the & B t n r r a a a d l e Humber and East Midlands via Sheffield and the two to . Connectivity to deliver economic benefits i n d v b W i a h h e m a M l i t c

Liverpool dominate rail demand on services that use the n u r i m v t a t a o 7. Manchester Airport s r H a r d w d g a e o h m l N i h h

Manchester Hub. The West Coast Main Line (WCML) e y t E t c p e g a s h l r e e r W l o fi i r t n e e i o h i I R corridor to the south is the largest of all. In the Trend d t h A h 8. Trans Pennine a d i N t m a m a r a C n v i d r i o i e a H / v & a n t i v and Trend Plus scenarios these corridors provide the t R n B r l l / s v a r e e / , d o o o e r r r r u p i 9. North South links and High Speed Rail i n n p o o n e r h largest quantity of forecast growth. e l o l b o h h o o t o c f h p p o s k s s p t s r r t t a d d s n r d i c k k s t e r e e x u r r n r o a a a e a v v l h u r l o o r o o o i i 10. Freight o C L L C L Y M B M G Y B P T B In the Trend and Trend Plus scenarios the fastest rate of S   2 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 8 1 9 7    2  growth is projected to occur on corridors where Greater Manchester Transport Unit; Annual station count 1 8 Chapter 4: Drivers for change 9

4.3.2 Capacity and flexibility 4.3.6.3 To support growth elsewhere in Greater Manchester Figure 4.2 Sub-areas in the Manchester regional centre Capacity needs to be provided to accommodate the between each principal rail corridor and each of the key forecast growth in the various scenarios, with average town centres  there should either be: load factors no worse than implied by the capacity metrics for 201/1 in Manchester in the 2007 High • a direct rail service; or Level Output Specification (HLOS) . • a service that requires no more than a single 4.3.3 Carbon reduction interchange for onward travel by rail, or Metrolink. To contribute to the trajectory of reduced carbon 4.3.7 Connectivity to deliver economic benefits emissions as set at a national level. Economic analysis in Phase One showed that cross city 4.3.4 Performance movements deliver significant incremental benefits. All Network performance that the delay minutes on principal rail corridors to be connected if possible to the franchised services in the Manchester area should be same Manchester city centre station, as well as other not worsened and kept consistent with the HLOS and central area stations where appropriate for the travel national targets. market.

4.3.5 Journey times 4.3.8 Manchester Airport The following targets for journey times to and from • account needs to be taken of links between the airport Manchester were identified. and North Wales and the East and West Midlands • Leeds 0 minutes • direct services to Manchester Airport of at least an • Bradford 0 minutes hourly frequency (half hourly in the case of North Trans Pennine) between each of the principal rail corridors on • Sheffield 0 minutes a seven day a week basis, with a service start and finish • Liverpool 0 minutes time giving 9 percent of all air passengers the option • Preston 0 minutes. of using rail for their inbound and outbound journeys connecting the airport with the northern city regions. 4.3.6 Growth centres in Greater Manchester 4.3.9 Trans Pennine 4.3.6.1 To support the growth and regeneration of the The trans Pennine corridors form the spine of the city Manchester/Salford Regional Centre, from each region to city region links. There should be a high principal rail corridor  (as shown in figure .) to each frequency, high quality, regular interval core express sub-area  within the Regional Centre (as shown in service that links all the Northern City Regions, meeting figure .2) there should be: the journey time and performance targets and:

• a direct rail service; or • Leeds – Manchester: 1 minute interval (or better)

• a service that requires no more than a single • Sheffield – Manchester: 20 minute interval interchange for onward travel by rail, Metrolink or Metroshuttle. • Bradford/Halifax - Manchester: 0 minute interval.

4.3.6.2 To support growth outside the regional centre, between 4.3.10 North South links and High Speed Rail each principal rail corridor and there To meet the forecasts and requirements for a doubling should be a service that requires no more than a single of West Coast Main Line demand by 202, and with interchange for onward travel by rail, Metrolink or such provision as indicated as being appropriate by the Metroshuttle. National Networks Strategy Group. 4.3.11 Freight Provision for a doubling of freight tonnage from existing and new origins and destinations to/from multi-modal terminals at Trafford Park and elsewhere in the North West by 200.

It is identifying affordable and value for money interventions to bridge the gap between the capability of the rail network in 201 and the capability required to deliver these conditional outputs that forms the 3 The principal rail corridors are: Corridor 2 (serving Preston); Corridor 4 (serving challenge for this Phase Two study. Bradford/Halifax); Corridor 5 (serving Newcastle//Hull/Leeds); Corridor 8 (service Sheffield/ South Humber/ and the East Midlands); Corridor 10 (serving London / Birmingham); Corridor 13 (serving Liverpool); Corridor 14 (service Liverpool/North Wales/Chester), Corridor 11 (Manchester Airport 4 The Regional Centre comprises the following sub areas: Central Business District, Retail Core, Eastern Gateway, Piccadilly Gateway, Oxford Road Corridor, , Chapel Street, Victoria, Northern Quarter, Southern gateway, The 5 The key town centres are: Ashton-under-Lyne, , Rochdale, Bury, Bolton, , Petersfield, Castlefield, Left Bank, Chinatown: see 2008 draft Regional Wigan, Altrincham and Stockport Transport Strategy 0 Chapter 4: Drivers for change 1

Figure 4.3 Rail corridors 8 D e t L u E o E T I R A F G E S 8 K K D e R t A E I u E o W K R L P D D E g L O L n T i E t S E A I I n S i G F F T O E D D L S K E A E G A s G g H y n m n i W W e N E c t l D o J d n t A i l g G t y R D e e y n H o e i i D l O Y f p t I e b r t l r C r D i F t R d R o o o L R a y D a U M n B h C M n E E e t c B o l I A B c Y J r s T J s s L F S R d r n n B h N n F A c 1 B I e e g W 1 a J t T l u E v t t e e E o S e t l a a r y H n e u c n d o D n e D r l e c y R y H o S t l o r D J i e L e G t e e R s i X l D L a y d f s h E s L d e I d A E s l n I u w g l o r r i o d e F F L e o I h a r n o H a a e t r M f r e e S P G c i h L e h o t e r n J B t D e M d a E g g l R R A r n g f l i D r o y r n E G r t S d d y o e a e n E A c a H S i c n H N J r n s e B h y l w O i N C i l D J r M r r d e Y B e W d l M y e R y D i e e o L y e G o e o N f y l h - l r i d d U t m R o p b d y y e r l m R a r H o 1 a o e H H W w e 1 E i H R R M S o e w F D l t L u o L F N L o A I S e n R U 1 e c d e n - t R 1 l N M J y d s o r e T p N H a t t O r o n s u g W N f W O T c a o e E n J E E y T X i R M E m n r M d i e n G n N C H G U a r u D o y p t t I n D S i B B b n o n I o r S y r e U e d o A r l R t H B u D e n a G m s s l b n l r B y l c i d d e J e o e B l e l M E r h h d D o t l t n B h w i u t y e H e i i o h f r s N n S M r e C s i c F E N v o J - e d a n o E e G g M h o F l t o r - d D D n o t D i s o I r o n r y e t B w N r l t h o e h R h B u s n e E n - a t s s l l c b a i e G c r B A y V J h h H d J E s e n v d t o l s e t l s d p l o d i r u i A n s w S w N y s M r a a c e e o o e Y o o l M e J M t A h h h G r o R W u n S R n y e d s l c g U l w H s l C r B i w t W J m e a u o y B e r l e s e u r d s r e D s h F B n d V z p H T u t s o e i y p k d e F c i N L y l d N b i r u S r a n J p o e a R e d h h a o l o m A c D e h u O n n l l n R s s H h y P P S J i s O R o g g l b e E r e e u A l e n r E C R P d u h a d L c d v h o i B W r L J s r o H K s s N E a n D k l l r o y A l A n B o c n C a D n e A o n i M t l n y k a o e D m c r t T r y o e b E L a O n n o l h J w W v d t a a d g l N t l c H 3 u h e i e T o e P d l y d H U e t n J 2 o t g m i e r t b h E r C i t H E S y t t H t s H L T e e e C H f n i a d s ' r t l p l i A R s m o r i r O w l t s e l L s u e r i o n o i l e e T s f S P f o d l B e r h R W d r - i e l / o i y e k t a R d l r B P t A R c n t a r e n P e s c N n s M t n c s e c o d C c n a w l E c l J r o a e J i a a a O C l a y t u T g R T a - L C k Y h d r ' d S s H e s r c n R L c i M E S o E u 1 d y u v o h r d L o o A 1 r s w n t t I b T I a f E y K e P o o a c t r d l e n M a e r C s x r d o t t e S n R D l C H s o e o O l g s u d g A d a d a a r s e l i l n M O R E n a A p o e e i T L O r C R e s n e t e c e l u d i l t t c i R G g g E D g H f J H G T S d C r N s n a J d i a e l e n d l a M l c a o C C C t A P K p f J I o I n E E A M s l Y l y n n e r N a a L t M V P e a e e R e u s h A W C r d y h a t e t l n B U n C r O M d s e C W c a S r B l h L J r o s l G t t M o r e a e o S e f h E n 8 t o n n l s G e n d g c 1 e c l a d T N p e G o s d a M J m E r l i e t & L l a R T a e o r r A a t g L t S C O o I b B e H n u E n W R G S i i N o t d y H T H r E m S O e W e R r t n a O ' S r n I s r R e P N T P a s e k D o d T a o E n T g n D s y N C A R i s S n A c d W I d A i L S d H o J R E r E n t n i O A i M G B e n C C l O D I k G W D R K W d o ' r N S F t V n R d R a 4 s L e A A E n A O n 1 s P a P d P A F s k N o R m M e r t o F r s t d S k o C u n r A o r o i U d o n r W r R o a f k a R w W T o f C c t P Y ’ 3 f S e a h e o e y i N t n t 2 l h r y c l y l t r s t d n s e l n i l a e e T u T O a e o a s t C l e M a n i s b e s ’ r e i L r u i T l S r k r A b w o h m n l L w c m d W h a h o r l a t r t R a n p o e c H l r i e O d o y a a e H n r o s T B w o C a m e B K M D E B H s n l M e e l o u t r w N a e h s d y I e a a n n n n n R H s d h 8 d i n y i r e n n r N c c o R l 1 t s k t n u c d G o i A J J l C l r M a R t u J b T e l e o n e r l t h a e U k C s d t o F L B c u o B r c c s i B b B e t M o n A a e W c o k l K w b s n x f R o i h B W n y C E l t t o o o s r t t A a e h F r o l s L M M u b k g N e n B c m n m n c u n h o t J a R t t u e c K f o l l s m J d H d E e A o h a o r l h a P r t r r l L T o T c o f r s c i t I G i R G r S F e r k a w t O E c k H g h a W t c o H d a l W r t P l o n i s t C o S H o s o H M N D N o L r y L k L e y O s h n n i U o a T c n o a i o O u t w r L G r d D w r g k e b A B M r l N o r n f I k e e f i h o R t d a r c w n a g i z s d R i r c o n o T H e P y e r e a M T J n c d l l d o R N e N J C k m o l u 3 o t a A G w r E 2 a d C l g O h e k n e n C W t e t c i n c c i J r a u l y n i a D H o l c g e N d e n N n B J l n R d c - d B i c r A c A J e g s W J N l a J o - n k e e r n O G s n o P O h n l n I 8 d a o c T k o r r i E w a T t 1 n n t c S P C u o n i o g f o a l i a W I S w R l l b E e t t Y i l w 2 t e y x m Y N T W S R n o E n 2 E u B n t i e u a N W c A m o P c L G L e s R O E J B S t M W J R a U a u R T L O S h o Q E y G A E - P s L R N N H e s E e d N L n H K R A T l I k n r n - o E R E G N n r e I o R s o n T l O n i 8 a c A F t S o W R e w N 1 e s t n c S E B o e A e e H l u n t w r l W n i t s u u l e W R o G d a S J i l N W c R l i i a W m s h e y e n n L a h i o t h H C a n g g n e i R u k e l i r o P G H d n o o n t o c s J i w n h e o l t s y a W u s H H o r C n o s t t n y c n n J c u u n s s t J t s o s H t n t H y o r e s u r e b e l H C W l o A W R d n a e o e r r H Y B G y e k A T r g e n r a U o W c t l J r n P K O o e o h e t n S R c l 1 v r t n h 2 A o a L e a c l l o r e P l l O t i e W B B u A T O H o t R P s y e R e l l E l n s W i c s V H e J l I l o t g i e L s g d M a H d E E E l L T H a E O n l T i o R E O m o O r p R P e r F T T e A l R v i E a S 1 E L o S 2 V C E I e t L M u I o L R 42 Chapter 5: Gaps and options 43

Chapter 5 Gaps and options

5.1 Conditional outputs The Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement 1 identified the key outputs that were to be addressed. Figure 5.1 summarises the requirements and identifies how these relate into gaps.

Figure 5.1 Gaps vs. Conditional Outputs Requirement Gap 1. Capacity and flexibility Adequate capacity needs to be provided to The level of crowding at the end of 2014 is specified in the accommodate Trend growth to 2019/20 in longer HLOS, and the industry has identified a need for a greater distance, commuting and other local rail journeys, with number of peak vehicle arrivals to meet that. Further average crowding being no greater than implied by the passenger growth is predicted beyond 2014, and for the capacity metrics for 2013/14 for Manchester in the capacity metrics to be met, further peak vehicle arrivals Department for Transport’s 2007 High Level Output will be required in the HLOS that will cover the period to Specification (HLOS) for the rail industry. 2029.

For the Trend scenario after 2019/20 and in relation to This gap needs to be addressed by further peak vehicle the Trend Plus scenario, the identified Manchester Hub arrivals. proposal should be ‘future-proofed’ to accommodate these higher growth rates without a requirement for further major infrastructure works beyond the identified proposals but through measures such as train lengthening.

2. Carbon reduction The net effect of the Manchester Hub proposals on the Subject to a separate analysis of the carbon impact in the overall carbon trajectory for the transport sector which appraisal. in due course will be adopted by Government should be demonstrated.

If possible, the effect of Manchester Hub in terms of in- service operation should be to contribute to the trajectory of reduced carbon emissions as set in national level overall targets for the transport sector.

3. Performance Network performance should be such that delay Interventions in Control Period 4 (CP4) will address this. minutes on franchised services in the Manchester area The Manchester Hub interventions must at worst be will not be worsened by meeting the Manchester Hub performance neutral. Conditional Outputs and that the performance of franchised rail services in the Manchester area is kept consistent with the High Level Output Specification and in line with targets set nationally.

In respect of Airport services, as the available evidence The creation of the third platform at Manchester Airport in is that good reliability and performance is of particular Control Period 3 (CP3) along with the CP4 performance significance to encourage rail use by airline passengers, plans will have a major impact by 2014. Manchester Hub the conditional requirement is to improve performance interventions should seek further resilience. further as a priority.

1Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement, The Northern Way, April 2009 44 Chapter 5: Gaps and options 45

Requirement Gap Requirement Gap 4. Journey times 7. Manchester Airport These are target journey times for the key corridors, The current public times are shown below. The requirement is for direct services of at least hourly The Calder Valley, Chester and the CLC have no direct from a Manchester City Centre station (either Victoria interval service frequency in each of the principal service to Manchester Airport, and the corridor to the or Piccadilly) to the principal adjoining city regions: corridors (30 minutes in the case of the Yorkshire and south has only got one if the local service from Crewe is the Humber and North East via Leeds corridor)… counted as sufficient. • Leeds 40 minutes 54 minutes 2 … on a 7 day/week basis … Not a gap • Bradford 50 minutes 60 minutes … with service start and finish time giving 95% of air This implies either a constant availability of services for • Sheffield 40 minutes 48 minutes passengers the option of using rail for their journeys to arrivals between 03:00 and 00:00 or constant arrivals • Chester 40 minutes 63 minutes or from the airport other than for periodic longer closures. The current maintenance regime allows periodic longer closures that • Liverpool 30 minutes 47 minutes 2 meet this level of infrastructure availability. However, services are currently not specified to meet the level • Preston 30 minutes. 39 minutes required.

5. Growth centres in Greater Manchester 8. Trans Pennine From each principal rail corridor to each sub-area within The Calder Valley does not link to the Village Leeds – Manchester a 15 minute interval service (or Currently 4 trains per hour (tph) – a few minutes off the Regional Centre there should be either a direct rail better) even interval service or a service that requires no more than a single interchange for onward travel by rail, Metrolink or Sheffield – Manchester a 20 minute service interval Metroshuttle. Currently 30 minute interval Bradford/Halifax – Manchester a 30 minute service From each principal rail corridor to each of the key town Calder Valley does not give a link to Stockport interval Currently 2 tph a few minutes off interval centres, there should be either a direct rail service or a service that requires no more than a single interchange, by rail or Metrolink. 9. North South Links and High Speed Rail Current West Coast Main Line (WCML) capacity To meet forecasts and requirements for a doubling of insufficient but being addressed by WCML Route From each principal rail corridor to Salford Quays there Calder Valley does not reach the Metrolink service to West Coast Main Line demand by 2026 Utilisation Strategy (RUS) and work at Stafford should be a service that requires no more than a single Eccles for connection to Salford Quays interchange by bus or Metrolink … with such provision as indicated as being appropriate The subsequent guidance from the Department for by the National Networks Strategy Group, to Transport (DfT) was that the Hub Should not close accommodate (HS2) options to and off options. 6. Connectivity to deliver economic benefits beyond central Manchester, together with a possible All principal corridors to be connected if possible to the Calder Valley services do not reach Manchester Piccadilly, parkway station same station in Manchester city centre for easy all others do. passenger transfer (or through cross Manchester operation), as well as other central area stations 10. Freight appropriate to the travel market. Provision for a doubling of freight tonnage from existing Additional paths will be required and new origins and destinations to/from the multi- The improved connectivity should therefore be used: Not all corridors connect to the same single station. modal terminals at Trafford Park and elsewhere in the North West by 2030. • (a) where possible, to promote direct cross city movements (for which train service provision and hence franchising costs will also generally experience cost efficiencies), or

• (b) where this cannot be done, to facilitate convenient passenger interchange. This is best done at a single Manchester city centre station to avoid circuitous, time consuming/counter-intuitive routeing.

2Note excludes improvements resulting from the Trans Pennine linespeed improvement scheme works in CP4 46 Chapter 5: Gaps and options 47

5.2. Gaps in capacity • The service provision does not allow 95 percent of air In terms of being able to accommodate High Speed better connections and infrastructure enhancements to passengers the opportunity to use rail for their journeys options to and beyond central Manchester, together allow that pattern to operate. The Conditional Output Statement identified expected to and from the airport. with a possible parkway station, the guidance from the growth in rail demand. In order to accommodate that DfT has been for the recommendations not to close off It is clear from the Theory of Constraints work that growth and still maintain the HLOS crowding metrics Data from Manchester Airport indicates that the level of possible options for high speed rail. running such additional services cannot be done additional vehicles will be required. These vehicles could arrivals at ‘kerbside’ at Manchester Airport is shown in without providing new infrastructure, and that there is be used to extend the length of existing services, or Figure 5.2, which is the time air passengers choose to arrive no single intervention that provides the solution, could be used to operate additional services. for flights or depart having landed at Manchester Airport. 5.9 Gap for freight meaning a strategy of interventions will be required. The particular interventions required depend on the There have been concerns regarding demand For freight the conditional output concentrated on pattern of services chosen to meet the outputs – some Figure 5.2 Demand at kerb-side (source Manchester Airport) forecasting of commuter flows into Northern cities. container traffic, and specified a doubling of tonnage. depend on the nature of services on particular radial Recent rail forecasting work carried out by DfT with The container terminal on the Hub area is Trafford Park routes and some will depend on how services are routed Northern Passenger Transport Executives (PTEs) has with Seaforth adjacent to the geographic scope and across the centre. shown that previous forecasts tend to underestimate with planned new terminals at and Parkside, growth on commuter routes. This work, whilst not yet on the Chat Moss route between Newton-le-Willows and 5.10.4 Interface between “Do Minimum” and “Do more” complete, appears to support growth in excess of the Patricroft. In dealing with peak crowding the “do minimum” “Trend” scenario and the output when complete will option lengthens peak trains and adds incremental form an input to the Northern RUS. Currently there is broadly only one path an hour for additional peak services. The improved frequencies of container traffic to Trafford Park. The gap has been the “do more” option also require additional vehicles. It Failure to deliver the forecast capacity into Northern taken to be creating a second path in the standard hour could be that the additional vehicles required for the cities will constrain their growth. to and from Trafford Park, providing two paths an hour improved frequencies are at the wrong time and place to Liverpool docks and to make sure that there is scope to meet the crowding metric of the “do minimum” for freight to get to Port Salford and/or Parkside. This option. This would mean that all the vehicles for the 5.3 Gaps in journey time provides sufficient capacity to meet the rail industry increased frequency are in addition to any required for 2030 freight forecasts. The Conditional Output Statement specifies six destinations meeting HLOS. This pessimistic view has been assumed journey times from Manchester, with improvements ranging for the purposes of the economic analysis. from between eight and 23 minutes depending on the Analysis of Figure 5.2 identifies that if all passengers in 5.10 Options to address gaps Alternatively, it could be that the additional vehicles for corridor. Addressing these will involve identifying value for a period of time, on every day of the year have access the increased all-day frequency are at the right time money interventions to address maximum speeds, slow to a service, then 95 percent availability means that 5.10.1 “Do nothing” and place to help address crowding in the peak. In speed restrictions and stopping patterns. services must arrive and depart between 03.00 hours The “do nothing” option is to carry on as now, and that effect using the benefits of the increased frequencies and midnight or that services run 24 hours a day and there is no change to the service provided, both in terms and a wider range of through workings could help to of timetable and train length. This means then trains 5.4 Gaps in growth centres and connectivity the infrastructure would need to be available for 95 meet the crowding metric. In this case the additional percent of the year. will become more crowded, people will not be able to vehicle lease cost and the peak mileage would not be in Greater Manchester travel and the crowding targets no longer be met. This attributable to the Hub scheme. This optimisation will Analysis of the existing possession regime shows that runs contrary to current Government policy and does The gaps in the area of growth centres in Manchester City be progressed with stakeholders in later development the network is currently available for 95 percent of the not meet the challenge of the conditional outputs so Centre principally relate to the fact that the Calder Valley stages for the Manchester Hub. time. As such the infrastructure is available to meet this has not been taken further. corridor does not connect with the locations and corridors conditional output should service specifiers identify the that are not accessible from Manchester Victoria. business case to take up the opportunity. Current use of 5.10.2 “Do minimum” 5.11 Analysis of strategic options overnight services reflects the impact of journey times The “do minimum” option is to provide sufficient by road during the uncongested late hours. additional vehicles for existing services such that the Having identified the gaps in the rail services and taking 5.5 Gaps in connectivity government’s crowding targets continue to be met into into account the capacity gaps identified, a range of the future. As well as the additional vehicles and their The Phase One work identified that connectivity is a infrastructure interventions was identified to provide the peak mileage, there would necessarily be associated significant driver of economic benefit. Improved 5.7 The gap in specified trans Pennine capability for rail service improvements to address these works such as platform lengthening to accommodate connectivity comes from existing services to Manchester frequencies. gaps and deliver the benefits. the longer trains and depot and stabling works to allow working through to a destination beyond, new services The specified frequency for Leeds and Bradford are met the trains to be kept on the network. As mentioned in These infrastructure interventions are required to creating new links across the centre of Manchester and and the services are almost on pattern, and can be section 3.5 the analysis indicates that this train address the issues of capacity and capability in the good interchange to improve connections. Currently made to be so. The gap for these corridors is about lengthening would in Control Period 5 (CP5) platform centre of Manchester and on the radial routes. Full there are inter-regional services that come to maintaining the existing pattern. For the Hope Valley require additional platforms at Manchester Airport and details of all the infrastructure interventions considered Manchester and stop, there are inter-regional centres corridor the specification is for 20 minute frequency Manchester Piccadilly. This provision of extra capacity are shown in Appendix B. In many instances there was that are not linked, and the interchange at Piccadilly when there are only two services an hour currently. for people on trains is very important but without more than one way of providing the capability and has to allow for time to travel between the main train further improvements much of the potential benefit is alternatives were only progressed to the point where it shed and the island platforms. missed. The Phase One study identified this crowding was clear which was better for the circumstances being 5.8 Gap for north south routes, and high relief represents only 18 percent of the potential considered. 5.6 Gaps in airport links speed rail benefits. This issue is wider than the Manchester Hub, and other There are two gaps in respect of Manchester Airport. 5.10.3 “Do more” work is being progressed elsewhere to address it. As such The challenge for the Northern economy, as identified • The CLC and Calder Valley corridors do not have a the requirements the West Coast Main Line have been by the Phase One study requires improvements beyond through link to Manchester Airport based on the separate work being undertaken by Network the “do minimum” in order to capture benefits to the Rail and the timetable associated with the enhancement Northern economy. It is the operation of an increased of the West Coast Main Line in the Stafford area. level of service with a wider range of through linkages, 48 Chapter 5: Gaps and options 49

5.11.1 The centre of Manchester Figure 5.4 Schematic showing impact of an Ardwick – Figure 5.6 Schematic showing impact of re-routing away • providing more platform capacity by creating additional There are three key issues to be addressed in the central Slow lines Flyover on crossing moves at Manchester from Manchester Piccadilly to Manchester Victoria the platforms to the east of the current platforms, which area: Piccadilly: North trans Pennine – Manchester Airport crossing services: North trans Pennine – Manchester Airport facilitates an Ardwick Eastern Flyover (green) and North trans Pennine - Liverpool (red) (green) and trans Pennine and Sheffield - Liverpool (red) East West and North South services crossing on the • or reducing the need for more platforms by diverting the approach to Piccadilly trans Pennine trains to Manchester Victoria. This involves trains to Manchester Airport using an . Manchester Piccadilly platform capacity 5.11.4 Cross Manchester Flows Capacity to cross Manchester via the Castlefield The ability to path flows across Manchester is corridor. constrained by the capacity of two key corridors: the 5.11.2 Crossing moves on the approach to Manchester Castlefield corridor and Manchester Victoria. As Piccadilly identified by section 3.5.3 the capacity on the The congestion at Manchester Piccadilly comes from Castlefield corridor is constrained by the Manchester crossing moves from two main sources: trains going Piccadilly through platforms. between Platforms 13 and 14 and Ashburys (and, to a On the Castlefield corridor provision of two additional lesser extent, Hazel Grove), and trains going between through platforms at Manchester Piccadilly immediately Manchester Airport and Ashburys (and, to a lesser to the south of the existing platforms 13 and 14, hence extent, Hazel Grove). Both sets of trains cross the whole known as 15 and 16, allows trains to arrive in one layout between Ardwick and Manchester Piccadilly. platform while another train is departing in the same Conceptually there are two main options to overcome direction from another. This intervention with minor the congestion from the crossing moves: works at Manchester Oxford Road to operate in the • option 1 - grade separation of some sort such that trains same manner increases the effective capacity to allow making the move are not interacting with trains going trains to be planned to run three minutes apart rather between the train shed and Stockport, or than the existing four minutes apart.

• option 2 - physical rerouteing such that there are no As an alternative the removal of the two freight paths crossing moves between Manchester Piccadilly and The solution of grade separation on the approaches to by diverting freight traffic to the west out of Trafford Ardwick through rerouteing of inter-regional services to Piccadilly continues to have all the existing services on Park to allow more passenger services on the Castlefield Manchester Victoria and provision of a link between broadly their existing pattern, and Manchester Piccadilly Corridor was evaluated. This would involve a new Manchester Victoria, Manchester Piccadilly and thence remains the prime focus of rail connections. The latter entrance to allow all services to arrive and depart from Manchester Airport through the Ordsall Chord. solution of rerouteing changes the emphasis such that the west and a link to the WCML from the CLC corridor both Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Victoria either via Glazebrook and Kenyon or Padgate and Figure 5.5 Schematic showing impact of Ardwick become important interchange stations. These options Dallam. This option was significantly more costly than Figure 5.3 Schematic showing existing crossing moves Eastern Flyover - a Fast lines – New East lines flyover on are shown diagrammatically at figures 5.10, 5.11, 5.12 the additional through platforms at Manchester at Manchester Piccadilly North trans Pennine – crossing moves at Manchester Piccadilly: North trans and 5.13. Piccadilly and as such was not progressed at this stage. Manchester Airport (green) and North trans Pennine - Pennine – Manchester Airport (green) and North trans It does however remain an option should growth justify Liverpool (red) Pennine – Liverpool (red) Analysis of the crossing moves associated with each of the further enhancement at a later stage. options indicates that only the Ardwick Flyover, or diversion of services to Manchester Victoria with an Ordsall Chord Capacity at Manchester Victoria is currently constrained allow delivery of the service specification. The Ardwick by the use of through platforms for terminating trains. Eastern Flyover was a variation on the Ardwick Flyover that This can be addressed by increased use of through was considered. Whilst having a reduced capital cost over working services or by creation of west facing bay the original version, with the new service level it had a platforms to the north of the layout. The capacity of the greater level of conflicts than currently and therefore did through platforms can be improved through a not provide the necessary capacity. differential linespeed of 35mph for passenger trains, which reduces the current planning headway from three 5.11.3 Manchester Piccadilly platform occupancy minutes to two minutes. Platform occupation at Manchester Piccadilly is an issue as operating longer trains restricts the ability to operate Whilst rerouteing North trans Pennine – Manchester multiple trains in one platform. Trains from many of the Airport services through Manchester Victoria does avoid corridors do have the option of being directed at either the crossing move conflicts at Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Piccadilly or Manchester Victoria. However, such services do use up capacity both on the Castlefield a key constraint is that traffic from Manchester Airport corridor and at Manchester Victoria. Thus for some and from Warrington Central must go to Manchester services there is a trade-off between capacity at Piccadilly. Manchester Piccadilly and cross – Manchester capacity.

Overcoming platform occupation congestion at 5.11.5 Radial Routes Manchester Piccadilly points to three potential options: The service pattern and consequent corridor interventions that were modelled were broadly the • creating more platform capacity by freeing up access to same for each option. For many of the long distance or the existing poorly used platforms (9 - 12) to make inter-regional services there was interaction between better use of them, this delivers most capacity when adjacent areas in the analysis of options. For each of linked to the Ardwick Flyover the corridors the following interventions were identified; 50 Chapter 5: Gaps and options 51

• For the services from the south the service around Manchester Piccadilly only two • Option 1 (see Figure 5.7) 5.11.8 Manchester city centre fast services went via the Chat Moss route, which Further analysis of ultimate destinations in the city - additional services have been routed to other requires signalling work in the Roby area. - Ardwick Flyover centre was carried out by Greater Manchester Passenger corridors to avoid costly interventions between Transport Executive (GMPTE). This showed that the Edgeley and Ardwick. • On the route to Chester via Chat Moss - Platforms 15 &16 at Manchester piccadilly with improved access to Platforms 9 - 12 ability to reach all of Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester • For the Sheffield services, and East Manchester services, - none Oxford Road and Manchester Victoria from all of the - Four track Ashburys – Guide Bridge corridors produced an overall benefit. - doubling Dore Station Jn to Dore West Jn and loops • On the route via Northwich at Grindleford to let extra fast trains run between - Signalling improvements at Roby The potential to unlock regeneration benefits through a - none, existing infrastructure allows a doubling of 15 minute frequency service serving Manchester Sheffield/East Midlands and cities in the north west; - Manchester Oxford Road platform and signalling services to Altrincham. Victoria, Salford Central, Manchester Oxford Road and these services would operate in pairs half hourly improvements Manchester Piccadilly from Manchester Airport was 5.11.6 Journey time improvements - loops at Chinley to allow the extra fast trains to be - Chinley loops noted if platforms were reinstated on the Liverpool lines sent via Marple, thereby avoiding constraints In considering the opportunity to achieve the journey at Salford Central. It is noted that stakeholders believe between Edgeley and Slade Lane. Such loops would time target between Manchester and Liverpool; it was - Grindleford loops Salford Central could unlock significant regeneration allow commuter services to be extended to Chinley identified that with electrification in CP4 improving the benefit and this could form an aspect of the further - Dore Jn redoubling from New Mills Central and or Hazel Grove speed of local services and raising to 90 mph the line feasibility. speed between Huyton and Astley signal box fast services - Four track Marsden – Diggle - for the Manchester Piccadilly based solution the are provided with the opportunity for a 33 minute 5.11.9 Opportunities for service improvements level of service at Ashburys required four tracking of journey time between Liverpool Lime Street and - Dewsbury Up Loop The two strategic options provide the opportunity to Ashburys - Guide Bridge; whereas a Manchester Manchester Victoria or Manchester Oxford Road. Whilst improve rail services across the North to meet the Victoria based solution required linespeed the trans Pennine linespeed scheme would be developed - Chat Moss route linespeed improvements challenges identified. A test timetable was developed to improvements on the Marple line, but by taking the and implemented in CP4 it was pessimistically assumed allow the appraisal of the strategic options, which is - Manchester Airport additional platform North trans Pennine services away from the that the costs of this linespeed improvement would be shown in Appendix C, but should not be taken as Ashburys – Guide Bridge corridor this option leaves included in the Hub appraisal. - Rochdale bay platform justification for a particular timetable at this stage. The flexibility for more commuter services there. details of the opportunities presented by the preferred On the North trans Pennine route the scheme to deliver option are shown in Chapter 8 . • On the North trans Pennine route from the North East, journey time improvements for trains from the North Yorkshire and the Humber East, West Yorkshire and the Humber was not • Option 2 (see Figure 5.8) Inter-regional/trans Pennine frequencies and journey sufficiently developed to provide a baseline for analysis. times - to facilitate an increased frequency and hence - Platforms 15 & 16 at Manchester Piccadilly This aspect of the Hub intervention will be reviewed running fast services an additional loop is required once the scheme identifies a single option for delivery in - Improved headways at Manchester Victoria • The two options provide the opportunity for the at Dewsbury and four-tracking between Diggle and CP4, which is expected to be in June 2010, to establish frequencies specified in the conditional outputs to Marsden using the disused bores of Standege tunnel the further improvements that can be justified. However - Manchester Victoria western bay platforms Leeds (six trains per hour) and Bradford (two trains per hour). In the case of Sheffield for four trains per hour - the new bay platform at Stalybridge created in CP4 the impact of the capacity interventions at Dewsbury - Improved passenger environment at Manchester but that these would run as two pairs, one each from allows flexibility in operating commuter services to and between Marsden and Diggle is designed to Victoria station South Yorkshire and the East Midlands, to facilitate the Manchester Victoria and Manchester Piccadilly with improve journey times by providing the opportunity for freight flows on the Hope Valley. this higher frequency inter-regional service. a pattern of four fast and two semi-fast services. - Ordsall Chord • The two strategies provide the opportunity for • For the Calder Valley Value for money opportunities were identified for - Marple linespeed improvements incremental journey time improvements to/from South significant improvement in frequency of trans Pennine - Four track Broad Green - Huyton - to facilitate increased frequency of inter-regional Yorkshire/East Midlands of up to five minutes based on services across the North. This greater frequency reduces the waiting time for passengers, which is reflected in services a bay platform is required at Rochdale, covering the cost of the intervention. On other corridors - Oxford Road platform and signalling improvements which facilitates an increased frequency or incremental linespeed improvements may be available improvements to the generalised journey time . commuter services. by combination with plain line track renewals, which will - Chinley loops • The potential for additional services to run on the radial be reviewed on an ongoing basis by Network Rail during • On the route to Bolton and Preston - Grindleford loops routes and across Manchester city centre provides CP4. On all corridors it is important to note that as opportunities for additional direct connections across - none, as additional inter-regional services from passenger numbers grow the business case for further - Dore Jn redoubling the North. For example with up to six fast/semi-fast Preston are routed via the Chat Moss route and incremental linespeed improvements will improve. services on the North trans Pennine route this gives West Coast Main Line. - Four track Marsden – Diggle 5.11.7 Strategic options additional direct connections that could be made compared to the current timetable. Connections that - this provides scope to adjust stopping patterns of The results of this analysis produce two strategic - Dewsbury Up Loop options for addressing the challenges of the Manchester might be considered include Chester to Leeds, Sheffield the remaining services to reflect the needs of the - Signalling headway improvements on the Chat Hub based around the interventions in the central area; to Preston etc. commuter railway. Moss route at Astley Option 1 to allow greater use of Manchester Piccadilly • The opportunity to increase the frequency of services • On the route to Liverpool and Option 2 to allow greater use of Manchester - Chat Moss route linespeed improvements also presents the opportunity for improved connections Victoria. For each option a list of the interventions and a - to achieve the fastest journey time at least two where direct links are not utilised, which can further diagram showing their locations is overleaf: - Manchester Airport additional platform inter-regional services go via the Chat Moss route. improve a passenger’s journey time. The Manchester Victoria based option involves all - Rochdale bay platform • Significant opportunities for journey time improvements fast trains being routed this way, which combined are available through both options. All journeys to with the need to overtake the stopping service led to Liverpool benefit from reduced journey times on the four tracking between Roby – Huyton and abolition Chat Moss route. Journeys from Sheffield and the East of the level crossing at Astley. In opting to enhance 52 Chapter 5: Gaps and options 53

Figure 5.7 Option 1 interventions Figure 5.8 Option 2 interventions 54 Chapter 5: Gaps and options 55

Midlands have the opportunity to benefit from up to • In Option 2 the simplification of the service pattern at five minutes improvement. In Option 2 passengers from Manchester Piccadilly indicates a performance Yorkshire, the North East and Humber benefit from a improvement which, it is suggested, is particularly five minutes reduction in journey time to Manchester important to passengers travelling to an airport for and their onward journey from routeing via Manchester onwards flights. Victoria, except for Manchester Airport where routeing via Ordsall is four minutes longer than in Option 1. Freight • The options provide the capability to double the Key commuter corridors number of paths from the West Coast Main Line to • The opportunity exists to increase the frequency of Trafford Park, which provides capacity to meet the rail service on many key corridors both in the peak and off- industry 2030 freight forecasts. peak. This is particularly the case with Option 2 where the simplification of the operation at Manchester • An hourly path is available on the Chat Moss route to Piccadilly and the freeing up of platforms at Manchester serve the developments at Port Salford and Parkside. Piccadilly presents the opportunity for additional services from south and east Manchester. 5.12 Future opportunities remaining • Recognising that many commuter flows are not into the The options taken forward in the strategy do not exhaust city centre, the options in providing additional capacity the potential future capacity of the rail network in the across Manchester provide the potential for more Hub area even given the further development work commuter services linking destinations across the city recommended on the linespeed interventions and on the centre. interface with electrification strategy. Indeed even the • The ability to increase the frequency of commuter two strategic options should not be seen as mutually services presents the opportunity to adjust the stopping exclusive. Once one is selected to form the base of the patterns of services to allow faster journeys, in addition strategy elements of the other, either service to benefits from the linespeed improvements referenced improvement and/or infrastructure, might be appropriate. under trans Pennine services. Looking forward as growth continues the further • In Option 2 the ability exists to improve journeys to infrastructure interventions might have a case including Manchester city centre by operating services that call at the following: Manchester Victoria, Manchester Oxford Road and • a western link for freight services from Trafford Park, Manchester Piccadilly on the way to Manchester allowing a greater number of passenger services on the Airport. Indeed if platforms were provided on the Castlefield corridor. Liverpool lines at Salford Central this station could be included. • the Ardwick Eastern Flyover (5.11.2) and associated additional platforms at Manchester Piccadilly if necessary • By providing a link from the Calder Valley corridor to to provide for additional services from the south Manchester Piccadilly the opportunity exists for all principal corridors to access all sub areas by only one • further interventions on the radial routes to facilitate interchange see 4.3.6.1. improved frequencies or journey times

• The capacity that has been created could be used for • create park and ride schemes and station car parks to services to East Pennine Lancashire if the additional facilitate the greater number of passengers being carried. infrastructure at Darwen and/or Todmorden curve were funded.

• To the east of Huddersfield the opportunity exists to take advantage of the capacity created by the loop at Dewsbury.

Manchester Airport • The options allow for the provision of more direct trains to Manchester Airport and potentially more destinations as referenced in the conditional outputs. Therefore the ability to create direct connections to destinations such as Bradford, Chester and Liverpool. In Option 2 the connection from the Calder Valley corridor is direct via the Ordsall Chord, while in Option 1 it involves a reversal at Salford Crescent.

• In Option 2 most of the services from Manchester Piccadilly to Manchester Airport will operate from platforms 13-16 making the journey easier for passengers. 56 Chapter 6: Evaluation of strategic options 57

Chapter 6 Evaluation of strategic options

6.1 Strategy evaluation each location were then weighted according to historical data on reactionary delay at the constraint. An appraisal framework to assess the strategic options was developed and applied. This assessed the options Option 1 was identified as likely to be similar or slightly for: worse than the current timetable despite the additional infrastructure due to the increase of services around • value for money Manchester Piccadilly. While provision of a flyover removes the crossing moves on the approaches conflicts • affordability remain at the platform ends and for traffic to/from • performance against the conditional outputs Manchester Airport.

• train performance The analysis suggests that Option 2 is likely to perform better than both Option 1 and the current timetable. • disruption during construction and after commissioning This reflects the significant simplification of the operation at Manchester Piccadilly with the removal of • opportunities for timing of their implementation crossing moves on the approach and the operation of • impact of New Lines/HS2 the station with platforms allocated to pairs of lines as follows; As such the evaluation of the two strategic options was broken down as follows: • platforms 1-4 to East Lines

1. qualitative assessment of strategic options • platforms 5-12 to Fast Lines

2. achievement against the conditional outputs • platforms 13-16 to Slow Lines

3. economic appraisal. However because Option 2 presents a radical change to the pattern of service delivery, the impact at Manchester Victoria and on the Chat Moss route should be explored 6.2 Qualitative assessment of strategic options in detail in later GRIP stages. 6.2.2 Construction disruption A number of elements of the options were assessed The two strategic options share substantially the same using qualitative criteria. These were: interventions on the radial routes. Hence for purpose of • train performance appraising the strategies the analysis of the disruption to both adjacent land users and rail services, during the • disruption during construction and after commissioning construction has focussed on the core area.

• affordability and opportunities for timing their The impacts of the interventions in the core area implementation associated with the two strategies have been assessed • impact of New Lines/HS2 in terms of the disruption during construction and post commissioning of the final scheme. This analysis is 6.2.1 Train performance summarised in Figure 6.1. Given the current Guide to Rail Investment Projects (GRIP) stage of the study it was inappropriate to carry The table clearly articulates that the greatest disruption out detailed timetable performance modelling using to adjacent land users is through the construction of the Railsys. This is appropriate to GRIP stage 3 and beyond. Ardwick Flyover and platforms 15 & 16 at Manchester An approach involving a structured evaluation by Piccadilly. Both variants of the Piccadilly platforms experts facilitated by the Network Rail Performance and scheme have been developed in discussion with the Capacity Allocation Team was undertaken. This local authority and developer to establish synergy with approach compared the relative performance of the two the proposed redevelopment of the land to the south. options at key constraints both against each other and The comparison between the alternative strategies against the December 2008 timetable. The results for therefore focuses on the difference between the Ardwick 58 Chapter 6: Evaluation of strategic options 59

Figure 6.1 Analysis of disruption to adjacent land use from the proposed interventions in central Manchester Flyover and Ordsall Chord. The impact of the Ordsall An approach from the south is most likely either on the Chord on the Inner Relief Road will need to be reviewed existing alignment having connected south of at a later GRIP stage. Passive provision in the road level Stockport, or to either the east or west of the existing Disruption to property/ Disruption to non-rail traffic was made when the Inner Relief Road was constructed; alignment. In the first case this might include an businesses and the remainder of the scheme impacts on what is incremental phase of trains leaving a new line to the broadly brown field land. The Ardwick Flyover on the West Midlands before an extension to Manchester is other hand causes significant disruption to residential, built. It is also considered possible that a new line would During construction After commissioning office and light industrial land use between Ardwick and require platforms that face to the south and to the north. Mayfield. Ardwick Flyover Affects adjacent office site. Access to Adjacent office building may be preserved It is therefore highly unlikely that a high speed line arches and adjacent business property (estimated 3 metre clearance from new An important aspect of evaluating the two strategic would approach Manchester Victoria given its location, obstructed. Potential disturbance to local viaduct), but the site will be compromised. options is the level of disruption caused to rail services the constraints of the station and nature of the residents Access to arches and adjacent business during the construction phase. Figures 6.2 and 6.3 approaches. As such Option 2 does not close off any property obstructed identify the major disruption associated with the options for a new line arriving in Manchester after interventions in each option. implementation of the Hub solution. Likely to close adjacent streets and major Partial/total closure of the street adjacent to roads the railway. In Option 1 the significant works at Manchester If arriving on the existing railway from Stockport, Piccadilly are estimated to require a number of Option 2 could be combined with the Eastern Flyover Manchester Piccadilly Car park & electricity substation affected Car park & electricity substation affected. significant blockades preventing or severely limiting (see Chapter 5 ) to provide additional platforms at Platforms 15&16 (both Design is consistent with the proposed access to Manchester Piccadilly and the Castlefield Manchester Piccadilly. The impact of an Ardwick Flyover variants) Mayfield development. corridor. Without the funding of additional is more problematic in this instance although not infrastructure there is limited opportunity for diversion insolvable provided provision is made at the design Impact on local road network for access Alterations to adjacent road network. and the costs associated with such infrastructure have phase. Similarly an eastern approach would benefit and materials supply not been included in the appraisal. from designing into Option 1 as the four tracking from Guide Bridge would require provision for GC gauge Manchester Oxford Road Railway arches affected Releases platform 5 area for development Option 2 is considerably less disruptive with the only vehicles and make use of elements of the Eastern major blockades associated with the works to platforms Flyover scheme. Adjacent streets affected for access with None 15 & 16 at Manchester Piccadilly and the signalling materials over limited period commissioning associated with the Ordsall Chord at A western approach to the city centre is unlikely to Castlefield. Indeed the enhancements can be involve Manchester Piccadilly due to the congested Ordsall Chord Interface with local land owners including Interface with local land owners including the programmed to provide the improved capability on the nature of the land use and the slow approach over the the Museum of Science and Industry Museum of Science and Industry routes to Manchester Victoria first, for diversion of Castlefield corridor. If an approach from the north as Disruption while building over the None, levels of Manchester Inner Relief Road services while the works between Manchester Piccadilly well as the south is required an underground station is Manchester Inner Relief Road. were designed for this eventuality. and Castlefield Jn are carried out. most likely. As such neither strategic option closes off options for a new line. Manchester Victoria Railway arches affected Railway arches Hence the disruption to passengers and freight users is headways and new bay markedly lower in Option 2 than Option 1. In the light of the hypotheses, Option 2 does not close platforms Minor access to site issues None off any options and could compliment a line arriving 6.2.3 Affordability and timing from Stockport with the Eastern Flyover. Option 1 need Marple Line Speed None None When considering the differences between Option 1 not close off options if details of any proposed route are Improvements and Option 2 it is worth noting the importance of the Minor access to site issues None known before detailed design and provision, either inter relationship between the interventions at active or passive, is made. Ashburys – Guide Bridge None reinstates a former formation None Manchester Piccadilly in Option 1 and their potential to four track trigger the need for resignalling. Therefore, it is likely that for Option 1 over £500 million of the capital cost Minor access to site issue None would be required to be funded in one control period. 6.3 Performance against the conditional outputs Option 2 presents the possibility of phasing the interventions in an incremental manner. While the In the light of the value for money appraisals outlined in greatest benefits will accrue to the economy only on Chapter 5 the table below details the level of early delivery of the full strategy, the investments could performance of each of the strategic options against be spread across control periods. the conditional outputs.

6.2.4 Impact of new lines/high speed The Department for Transport (DfT) guidance for the Manchester Hub study indicated that the preferred solution should not close off options for a future high speed line in Manchester. During the study period the Network Rail New Lines Study was published and HS2 was in its development phase preparing their report for the Secretary of State. While no specific details are available to this study from HS2 it is possible to create hypotheses for routeing options for a high speed line to reach central Manchester. 60 Chapter 6: Evaluation of strategic options 61

Figure 6.2 Major disruption to rail services required by Option 1 Figure 6.4 Achievement compared to conditional outputs

Requirement Disruption to rail services Diversion opportunities Objective Sub objective Generic to Option 1 Option 2 both options specific specific During construction Option 1 1. Capacity and Adequate capacity needs to be provided Delivered Simplification of Ardwick Flyover Significant stage works to preserve parallel moves across the throat during construction. A flexibility to accommodate Trend growth to As identified in service pattern and series of major blockades will be required for slewing the slow lines, construction of the flyover 2019/20 in longer distance, commuting Chapter 5 the reduced pressure on and connections at Manchester Piccadilly. Expected to trigger premature resignalling of the and other local rail journeys, with additional vehicles are platforms at Manchester Piccadilly area with the associated disruption. average crowding being no greater than likely to complement Manchester implied by the capacity metrics for the additional Piccadilly presents a Limited opportunities for diversion routes 2013/14 for Manchester in the frequencies and greater opportunity Department for Transport’s 2007 High capacity exists for for additional peak Manchester Piccadilly Two stage construction, blockades required to connect 15 & 16 and to reconnect the Level Output Specification for the rail additional peak services than Platforms 15&16 and 9 to reconstructed 13 & 14. Blockade required to remodel Piccadilly East Jn. industry services. Option 1. 12 enhanced access Divert traffic over 15 &16 while 13 &14 are reconstructed For the Trend scenario after 2019/20 Delivered Ardwick Flyover, Ordsall Chord, loops, and in relation to the Trend Plus The strategy involves Manchester Manchester Airport Ashburys – Guide Bridge A series of planned possessions to remodel track layout scenario, the identified Manchester Hub running more rather Piccadilly platforms, and Manchester four track Limited opportunities for diversion routes proposal should be ‘future-proofed’ to than longer trains, loops, Manchester Victoria platforms, accommodate these higher growth rates thereby retaining a Airport platforms, planned to be built Oxford Road Planned disruptive possessions to remodel track layout without a requirement for further major future option to planned to be built to adequate length. infrastructure works beyond the lengthen trains. to adequate length. Limited opportunities for diversion routes identified proposals but through measures such as train lengthening

2. Carbon The net effect of the Manchester Hub See separate carbon -- reduction proposals on the overall carbon assessment, Section trajectory for the transport sector which 6.4.4 Figure 6.3 Major disruption to rail services required by Option 2 in due course will be adopted by Government should be demonstrated. Disruption to rail services Diversion opportunities If possible, the effect of Manchester Hub -- in terms of in-service operation should be During construction Option 2 to contribute to the trajectory of reduced carbon emissions as set in national level Manchester Piccadilly Blockades required to connect 15&16 Blockade required to remodel Piccadilly East Jn. overall targets for the transport sector. Platforms 15 & 16 Some diversions via Victoria will be possible if the Ordsall Chord is constructed first. 3. Performance Network performance should be such See 6.2.2 See 6.2.2 Divert traffic over 15 &16 while 13 &14 are reconstructed that delay minutes on franchised services performance performance in the Manchester area will not be assessment assessment Manchester Oxford Road 36hr possessions to remodel track layout worsened by meeting the Manchester consistent or slightly improvement on Some diversions via Victoria will be possible if the Ordsall Chord is constructed. Hub Conditional Outputs and that the worse than December 2008 performance of franchised rail services in December 2008 timetable. Ordsall Chord Blockades required to connect affecting routes through Ordsall Lane Jn and Castlefield Jn the Manchester area is kept consistent timetable. with the High Level Output Specification Limited opportunities for diversion routes and in line with targets set nationally

Manchester Victoria New platform works to require planned possessions of Down and Up Salford lines for In respect of Airport services, as the Additional Airport services from Airport services from headways and new bay connections available evidence is that good reliability platform(s) at the east have the east have crossing platforms and performance is of particular Manchester Airport crossing moves in moves in the Diversion via Down and Up Chat Moss lines available significance to encourage rail use by mitigate the Manchester Manchester Piccadilly airline passengers, the conditional performance risk due Piccadilly area area removed, but Marple Linespeed Planned possessions. requirement is to improve performance to increase in the reduced. crossing moves remain Improvements Various diversions available. further as a priority number of services at Ordsall Jn and Castlefield Jn. 62 Chapter 6: Evaluation of strategic options 63

Requirement Requirement

Objective Sub objective Generic to Option 1 Option 2 Objective Sub objective Generic to Option 1 Option 2 both options specific specific both options specific specific These are target journey times for the key 5. Growth From each principal rail corridor to each - Compliant Compliant corridors, from a Manchester City Centre centres in sub-area within the Regional Centre station (either Manchester Victoria or Greater there should be either: a direct rail Manchester Piccadilly) to the principal Manchester service; or a service that requires no more adjoining city regions: than a single interchange for onward travel by rail, Metrolink or Metroshuttle. 4. Journey times Leeds 40 minutes The maturity of the Diverting to Victoria scheme for delivery in provides a benefit of From each principal rail corridor to each - Compliant based on a Compliant Control Period 4 (CP4) five minutes of the key town centres, there should be Calder Valley Corridor prevented detailed compared to current either, a direct rail service, or a service service reversing at analysis at this stage. timetable. that requires no more than a single Salford Crescent. Bradford 50 minutes, recognising route Journey time analysis Incremental journey Incremental journey interchange, by rail or Metrolink. characteristics and high level cost time improvement time improvement - Compliant assessment did not opportunities to be opportunities to be From each principal rail corridor to Compliant based on a identify value for developed at a later developed at a later Salford Quays there should be a service Calder Valley Corridor money interventions stage. stage. Incremental that requires no more than a single service reversing at to deliver the target journey time interchange by bus or Metrolink Salford Crescent. journey time in Control improvements to be period 5 (CP5). developed 6. Connectivity All principal corridors to be connected if - Compliant based on a Compliant to deliver possible to the same station in Calder Valley Corridor Sheffield 40 minutes Journey time analysis Incremental journey Incremental journey economic Manchester city centre for easy service reversing at and high level cost time improvement time improvement benefits passenger transfer (or through cross- Salford Crescent. assessment did not opportunities to be opportunities to be Manchester operation), as well as other identify value for developed at a later developed at a later central area stations appropriate to the money interventions stage. stage. travel market. to deliver the target journey time in CP5. The improved connectivity should Both options seek to -- therefore be used:(a) where possible, to maximise cross city Chester 40 minutes Journey time analysis Incremental journey Incremental journey promote direct cross-city movements (for movements. and high level cost time improvement time improvement which train service provision and hence assessment did not opportunities to be opportunities to be franchising costs will also generally identify value for developed at a later developed at a later experience cost efficiencies), or (b) where money interventions stage. stage. this cannot be done, to facilitate to deliver the target convenient passenger interchange. This journey time in CP5. is best done at a single Manchester city Liverpool Lime Street 30 minutes - Assumes 90mph Assumes 90mph centre station to avoid circuitous, time running between running between consuming/counter-intuitive routeing. Huyton and Astley Huyton and Astley allowing a 32 allowing a 33 minute 7. Manchester The requirement is for direct services of Compliant -- minute journey time journey time from Airport at least hourly interval service frequency from Oxford Road Manchester Victoria or in each of the principal corridors (30 30 minutes to Salford minutes in the case of the Yorkshire and Central if Salford the Humber and North East via Leeds Central Liverpool line corridor)… platforms are provided. … on a 7 day/week basis … Compliant -- Preston 30 minutes. Journey time Incremental journey Incremental journey analysis and high time improvement time improvement … with service start and finish time Infrastructure is -- level cost opportunities to be opportunities to be giving 95% of air passengers the option available to support assessment did not developed at a later developed at a later of using rail for their inbound and services in 2009. The identify value for stage. stage. outbound legs services level is not money interventions currently specified in to deliver the target the franchises. journey time in CP5. 64 Chapter 6: Evaluation of strategic options 65

Requirement Figure 6.4 demonstrates that both strategic options provide wider inter-regional and inter city rail network. The have a broadly consistent level of performance against the following bullet points summarise where there is a key Objective Sub objective Generic to Option 1 Option 2 conditional outputs. difference in the benefits generated and the reasons for both options specific specific this difference.

8. Trans Pennine Leeds – Manchester a 15 minute interval - Compliant Compliant • Travel from central Manchester is more attractive in service (or better) 6.4 Economic evaluation Option 2 because journey opportunities away from the Detailed economic appraisal has been completed for city centre are available from the three central Sheffield – Manchester a 20 minute The opportunity is -- both strategic options and in this section the review will Manchester stations to all corridors. Further journeys service interval identified for up to focus on the differences in; from Manchester to Liverpool and Leeds are quicker four trains per hour from Manchester Victoria in Option 2. running in half • Capital costs hourly pairs from • Commuter corridors from north east Manchester South Yorkshire and • Operating costs generate greater benefit in Option 2 because this the East Midlands. option offers direct connection to Liverpool and a • Benefits quicker direct connection to the south side of Manchester. This reflects the greater growth on 9. North south To meet forecasts and requirements for a Study assumed -- In addition the analysis will demonstrate the economic commuter services on northern corridors referenced in links and high doubling of West Coast Main Line future West Coast justification for both options against the DfT appraisal 4.2.3. speed rail demand by 2026 timetable being framework. developed as part of 6.4.1 Capital costs • Journeys from the Sheffield corridor to Manchester are the Stafford project The respective capital costs of the strategic options at quicker in Option 1. This is because the journey times for 2016 at 2009 cash prices and exclusive of property costs are in from Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield are two minutes Manchester. the region of; quicker than from Manchester Victoria and in Option 1 all Sheffield trains operate from Manchester Piccadilly. with such provision as indicated as being - See 6.2.4 requires See 6.2.4 compliant Option 1 £790m It has therefore been concluded that Sheffield to appropriate by the National Networks passive provision. Manchester and Manchester Airport journeys must be Option 2 £530m Strategy Group, to accommodate High Compliant via Manchester Piccadilly; in Option 2 this sees the Manchester and Manchester Airport train running at 30 Speed 2 (HS2) options to and beyond 6.4.2 Operating costs minute intervals to Manchester Piccadilly with the central Manchester, together with a The service specification developed to prove the journeys beyond Manchester running via Manchester possible parkway station concept of the strategic options provides similar service Victoria on the alternate pair of services also at 30 opportunities with two significant differences that minute intervals. 10. Freight Provision for a doubling of freight The additional Compliant Compliant impact on the operating costs and associated need for tonnage from existing and new origins freight paths revenue support. • Journey opportunities from the West Coast Main Line and destinations to/from the multi- provided to and (WCML)/Welsh Borders/south Manchester to In Option 1 Fast services from Manchester to Liverpool modal terminals at Trafford Park and from Trafford Park Huddersfield, Leeds and beyond are better in Option 1. alternate between use of the Chat Moss and CLC routes. elsewhere in the North West by 2030. are adequate to These flows from the WCML and Wales to the Leeds In Option 2 the absence of a link between Victoria and meet the forecast of corridor require a connection at Manchester Piccadilly. the CLC route, and route the inability to identify a likely 2030 freight traffic There are four trains per hour from Manchester scheme, results in all four fast services running via the Piccadilly to the Leeds corridor in Option 1, whereas Chat Moss route and additional services are provided on there are only two in Option 2, with longer journey the CLC route in their place. times via Manchester Victoria. As a result the operating cost of Option 1 is less than 6.4.4 Carbon appraisal Option 2 by £4 million per year at 2009 prices. The In response to conditional output 2 a carbon annual operating cost for Option 1 is £38.8 million assessment of the strategies was carried out. This was compared to £42.8 million for Option 2. consistent with WEBTAG appraisal criteria for reduction The service specification on which the appraisal was in road vehicle mileage as a result of modal shift to rail based has scope for further refinement, to increase and Department for Environment, Food and Rural benefits and revenue and reduce operating costs. This Affairs (DEFRA) guidance on the carbon impact of can be done at later development stages of the vehicles. The resultant appraisal identified a reduction Manchester Hub project. of 1.98 million tonnes of carbon over 60 years from implementation of the Manchester Hub based on 6.4.3 Differences in the benefits current traction type and performance. Although the two options deliver broadly the same net volume of benefits the corridors in which these benefits 6.4.5 Net present value appraisal of costs and benefits are generated varies between the two options. Option 1 Figure 6.5 shows the net present value of the annual sees flows to and from corridors currently well connected benefits and costs associated with Options 1 and 2 over to Manchester Piccadilly benefiting, as this option a 60 year appraisal period. For appraisal purposes, delivers improved journey opportunities via Manchester following DfT guidelines figures have been discounted Piccadilly. Option 2 provides improved integration to 2002 values using historic inflation rates. Benefits between the corridors connecting to Manchester have been uplifted by assumed passenger growth in Victoria, largely to the north of Manchester, with the future years and indices consistent with WEBTAG 66 Chapter 6: Evaluation of strategic options 67

guidance and previous Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) analysis have been used to estimate how operational costs, capital costs and non user benefits might change over the appraisal period.

Current WEBTAG guidelines do not include wider economic benefits in calculating the Benefits Cost Ratio (BCR), although from April 2010 they are included. As a result in appraising the Manchester Hub wider economic benefits have been included in the BCR.

Including the revenue benefits the two strategic options deliver significant benefit; £4.01 billion present value in Option 1 and £4.23 billion present value in Option 2. As can be seen both options represent high value for money with the difference in the benefits cost ratio being driven by difference in capital cost for the two schemes and the increased benefits in Option 2 described in 6.4.3.

Figure 6.5 Appraisal table

60 year appraisal Option 1 PV £m Option 2 PV £m

Costs (Present value) Investment cost 859.7 578.2 Operating cost 768.9 849.9 Revenue -474.5 -491.5 Total costs 1,154.1 936.7

Benefits (Present value) Rail users benefits 1,581.2 1,601.5 Non users benefits 454.1 473.8 Crowding benefits 909.7 1,018.5 Other government impacts -121.6 -126.0 Wider economic benefits 713.4 766.2

Total quantified benefits 3,536.8 3,733.9 NPV 2,382.7 2,797.3 Quantified BCR 3.1 4.0

Note: All figures are presented in 2002 market prices 68 Chapter 7: Conclusions 69

Chapter 7 Conclusions

The assessment work has identified that both Option 1 To realise the benefits identified in the study Network and Option 2 represent credible packages for enhancing Rail intends to work with DfT and stakeholders through rail services across the North. In 2009 prices, Option 1 the feasibility stage of the Manchester Hub project to has a capital cost in the region of £790 million and develop the opportunities to: Option 2 £530 million, excluding property costs. • Improve the journey time on the North trans Pennine Both Option 1 and 2 deliver substantial economic route to the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber. benefits. Over a 60 year appraisal period Option 2 delivers greater benefit than Option 1. • Develop the plans for key commuter corridors further in the light of the ongoing work with DfT, Northern and Both strategic options have a value for money case. Greater Manchester Passenger Transport Executive Following Department for Transport (DfT) criteria both (GMPTE) on Greater Manchester passenger forecasts. Option 1 and Option 2 have a high value for money case. • Develop the plans in conjunctions with the Developing a Sustainable Transport System, (DaSTS) studies which As well as being cheaper to implement, the economic include; Trans Pennine, Access to Manchester, Access to appraisal indicates that Option 2 also has a better value Leeds and North West Connectivity. for money case. • Review the further opportunity for the services from Greater risk is associated with the cost of Option 1. In south Manchester to West Yorkshire and beyond. particular, it has greater land purchase and greater compensation payments due to disruption to train • Refine the proposed direct connections both between operations during construction. In terms of train cities in the North and the commuter network to performance, Option 2, with its increased use of maximise benefits across the North. Manchester Victoria, is an improvement over the current • Review the strategy in the light of emerging proposals position. Option 2 also provides opportunities to phase on electrification from the Network Route Utilisation the interventions either to minimise disruption during Strategy (RUS) Electrification strategy. the construction works or to reflect affordability. The assessment of risk and disruption during construction • Refine the proposal in the light of proposed rolling stock reinforces the case for Option 2 over Option 1. strategy developed through the Network RUS Depots and Rolling Stock strategy to be published for In terms of wider economic benefits to the North of consultation in November 2010. England and meeting the conditional outputs Option 2 outperforms Option 1. The issues of network • To develop the opportunities for freight in line with the performance and connectivity for the Calder Valley ongoing work developing the plans for the Strategic corridor are particular distinguishing differences. Freight Network beyond 2014.

Given the common nature of interventions on the radial • Through the Northern RUS to review the opportunities routes at this stage in the development of the outside of the study area Manchester Hub the critical strategic decision is the • To identify opportunities for incremental journey time strategy through the core central area. improvements, through linespeed improvements In the light of the analysis it is therefore concluded that associated with maintenance and renewal activity. strategic Option 2 be taken forward for further Network Rail will now take the development of the development through the Guide to Railway Investment Manchester Hub forward through Network Rail’s project Projects (GRIP) stages to inform Network Rail’s Initial development process linking to the following timescales Strategic Business Plan in 2011 and the High Level as part of the development of plans for delivery in CP5: Output Specification to be issued in 2012 for delivery in Control Period 5 (CP5). This further development work Summer 2010 Industry view of initial CP5 options will include opportunities for aspects of Option 1 to be combined with Option 2 to provide additional benefits. September 2010 Draft Northern RUS

Through Option 2 the Manchester Hub offers the Summer 2011 Initial Strategic Business Plan potential for significant improvements to rail services, June 2012 High Level Output Specification CP5. which are detailed in Chapter 8 . 70 Chapter 8: Opportunities for service improvements from the preferred option 71

Chapter 8 Opportunities for service improvements from the preferred option

8.0 Opportunities - increased frequency for up to four trains per hour running as two pairs, one in each pair to The provision of the infrastructure in Option 2 provides Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Victoria significant opportunity for train service improvements, respectively which are detailed below. These improved services and links could be implemented at any time once the - increased direct services beyond Manchester to infrastructure is in place. This would depend on future Liverpool, Chester or Preston via Victoria with growth in demand, the business case for each journey time improvements via the Chat Moss incremental service enhancement and affordability route. should additional subsidy be required. • East Midlands (Derby, Leicester and Nottingham):

8.1 London, Birmingham and the south - two trains per hour to Manchester

- additional capacity to Manchester to meet the - faster journey time to Manchester Piccadilly by plans for the West Coast Main Line. This could around five minutes be an additional stopping service between Manchester and Birmingham and reduced - improved connections beyond Manchester (via journey time for an existing service Victoria) making use of the improved journey time to Liverpool via the Chat Moss route - does not close off options for trains from a high speed line in the future to arrive in Manchester. - potential for one train per hour to run direct to Manchester (avoiding Sheffield) with resultant 8.2 Inter-regional and trans Pennine service journey time improvement without worsening • Leeds, and Hull: current East Midlands to Sheffield connectivity.

- six trains per hour from Leeds and beyond. • Bradford and Halifax: Opportunity for four fast trains with only one or - two trains per hour crossing Manchester to two stops thereby improving journey times Manchester Airport and Liverpool or Chester

- faster journey time to and through central - improved connection through Manchester Manchester Victoria and Manchester Piccadilly.

- increased frequency provides opportunity for • Liverpool: new direct services to Liverpool, Chester, Preston or Manchester Airport. - improved journey time of 33 minutes to Manchester Victoria • The North East (Newcastle and Middlesbrough): - four fast trains per hour between Manchester - opportunity for new direct services beyond Victoria and Liverpool Lime Street Manchester - improved connections for inter-regional - improved journey times through use of the four destinations at Manchester Victoria fast trains on North trans Pennine - access to Manchester Airport via Warrington - improved performance of services to Central. Manchester Airport • Chester: - improved connections for onwards journeys at Leeds, Huddersfield and Manchester Victoria. - doubled frequency to two trains per hour

• South Yorkshire (Sheffield and Doncaster): - direct service across Manchester to destinations such as Manchester Airport, Bradford, Sheffield - faster journey time to Manchester Piccadilly by and Leeds around five minutes - incremental journey time improvements as a result of works on the Chat Moss route. 72 Chapter 8: Opportunities for service improvements from the preferred option 73

• The North West (Preston and beyond): - opportunity, if infrastructure is funded, for more - potential for (additional) services to go to 8.4 Manchester Airport frequent service to Eccles by way of loop or Manchester Victoria, and for new station at - additional services from Manchester to Preston turnback. Eastlands. - provide opportunity for new direct connections and destinations to the north such as to Bradford, Halifax, Chester, Stoke-on- • CLC Route: • Glossop/Hadfield: Trent and Warrington - capacity for electrified services to operate via Chat Moss route and West Coast Main Line - potential for additional services - more all day services in Greater Manchester - improved cross Manchester capacity and (WCML) with the ability to provide a fast service platform provides additional capacity for - potential to review stopping pattern which may - significant increase in service frequency from between Wigan and Manchester. services improve frequency at some stations – but trades Guide Bridge to Manchester 8.3 Key commuter corridors off journey time - improved city centre dispersal through - potential for some services to go to Manchester Manchester Piccadilly, Oxford Road and • Rochdale/Calder Valley: - potential to consider stations at White Victoria if electrified Manchester Victoria City/Cornbrook. - additional all day services to Rochdale from - ability to increase overall frequency if services - improvement in performance through the Manchester and Leeds • Northwich: alternate between Glossop and Hadfield. simplification of the operation at Manchester - direct services to destinations beyond - more off-peak services closer to Greater Manchester • Huddersfield and Stalybridge: Piccadilly. Manchester Victoria such as Manchester Airport - faster journey time to key locations - potential for more peak or all day services to and Wigan 8.5 Freight Stalybridge from Manchester Victoria and or - potential for Greenbank - Altrincham to be - doubling the number of paths from the West - increased frequency of services between Halifax Manchester Piccadilly linked to Ashton/Guide Bridge. Coast Main Line to Trafford Park meeting the and Leeds - commuter services to Huddersfield from 2030 freight forecast • Crewe: - capacity for services from Burnley via Manchester Piccadilly in lieu of Manchester - provision of an hourly path on the Chat Moss Todmorden if investment at Todmorden is Victoria - potential for extra peak capacity when needed route to serve developments at Port Salford and funded. - more frequent service to Manchester Airport - a link created between Stalybridge and Guide Parkside. • Bolton Corridor: Bridge - Heaton Chapel/Levenshulme could see return to - potential to alleviate peak crowding through 15 minute all day pattern. - more frequent trans Pennine trains call at services via WCML for Preston and north Stalybridge • Stoke-on-Trent - potential for more services to work through to - inclusion of Ashton–under–Lyne in the trans destinations beyond Manchester Victoria, such - new direct service to Manchester Airport Pennine network as the East Midlands - potential for faster services serving Manchester - potential for new station and turnback facility at - faster journey times to Wigan from additional from Congleton/Kidsgrove depending on stopping Diggle facilitating additional services services via WCML pattern of the all day Birmingham slow service. - potential for electrification to Stalybridge - opportunity for more all day services to • Buxton/Hazel Grove: allowing electric through working from beyond Blackburn if investment at Darwen is funded. Manchester Victoria - potential for additional services all day or peak only • Atherton Line: - increased frequency east of Huddersfield. - More off peak services beyond Hazel Grove - potential for additional services in the peak (could be to Buxton or to Chinley) • Manchester Loop;

- faster journey times to Atherton and potentially - modest improvement in journey times – - 15 minute pattern Manchester Victoria – Oxford other significant stations dependent on stopping patterns Road – Manchester Piccadilly – Manchester Airport - potential to alleviate peak crowding as Wigan - potential for long distance services to call at passengers travel via WCML Hazel Grove and or Chinley all day or peak only - potential to include Salford Central if Liverpool line platforms provided - potential for through working to destinations - potential for a new station at Chapel-en-le-Frith beyond Manchester Victoria to destinations on the Great Rocks line - potential for a station at Eastlands with services such as Bradford. working through Manchester Victoria. - better faster connections to Sheffield and the • Chat Moss Route: East Midlands from Manchester and potentially from Hazel Grove and Chinley dependent on - significantly faster more frequent direct links stopping patterns. between Liverpool and Manchester • Marple: - more frequent fast services between Wigan and Liverpool - potential for more peak services to Marple, Rose Hill and New Mills Central - faster local journeys due to electrification with scale dependent on stopping pattern - potential to improve services to Ardwick if viable

- more frequent service between stations to - more all day services to Chinley – with connections Chester and central Manchester there to Sheffield and the East Midlands 74 Glossary 75

Glossary

Absolute block A form of railway signalling

Hope Valley The route from Dore to Edgeley Jn Stockport

North Trans Pennine The route from Manchester to Leeds, York, Hull and the North East via Huddersfield

CLC The route from Manchester to Liverpool via Warrington Central

Chat Moss The route from Manchester to Liverpool via Newton-le-Willows

Calder Valley The route from Manchester to Bradford via Rochdale and Halifax

GRIP Guide to Railway Investment Projects, Network Rail’s project development framework.

WEBTAG DfT’s Transport Analysis Guidelines defining the appraisal criteria for transport projects 76 Appendices 77

Appendices

Appendix A

Details of formal stakeholder meetings and invitees

The Steering Group membership was as follows:

Name Title Organisation

Peter Strachan (until January 2009) Route Director London North Western Network Rail (Chair) Jo Kaye (from January 2009) Route Director London North Western Network Rail (Chair) Vernon Barker Managing Director First TransPennine Express Heidi Mottram Managing Director Northern Rail Rob Warnes Performance and Planning Director Northern Rail Nick Gibbons National Planning Manager DB Schenker Nicky Mailey Head of Regional Transport Government Office of the North West David Leather Chief Executive Greater Manchester Passenger Transport Executive (GMPTE) Stephen Clark Deputy Clerk Greater Manchester Integrated Transport Authority (GMITA) Brian Welch Policy Manager Cities and Regions Rail Department for Transport (DfT) Stuart Baker Divisional Manager (National) Rail Projects Department for Transport (DfT) John Jarvis Transport Project Director The Northern Way Richard Eccles Head of Network Planning Network Rail Tom Wadsworth Communications Manager Network Rail Graham Botham Principal Commercial Scheme Sponsor Network Rail Richard Donaldson Commercial Scheme Sponsor Network Rail Emma Pemberton-Eccles Public Affairs Manager Network Rail

The Steering Group met on the following occasions:

• 8 September 2008 • 5 November 2009 • 13 January 2009 • 5 March 2009 • 8 May 2009 • 29 June 2009 • 7 August 2009 • 17 September 2009 • 15 October 2009 • 16 November 2009 • 10 December 2009 78 Appendices 79

The Working Group drew on the following people for Wider Stakeholder meetings were held on 15th May working level discussions; 2009 and 17th September 2009 involving the following attendees:

Name Organisation Name Organisation

Richard Donaldson Network Rail (chair) James Jarrett 4NW Peter Warhurst Northern Rail Peter Leppard Arriva Trains Wales David Langton First TransPennine Express Mike Cliffe Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council Jonathan Dunster Virgin Trains Chris Farrow Central Salford URC Stan Kitchin DB Schenker Jim Wensley Central Salford URC Nick Gibbons DB Schenker Paul Griffiths Cheshire East Council James Carter CrossCountry Andrew Ross Cheshire East Council Peter Leppard Arriva Trains Wales Christine Garner Cheshire West and Chester Council Jon Ratcliffe Arriva Trains Wales James Carter CrossCountry Tom Jones Freightliner Nick Gibbons DB Schenker Simon Taylor East Midlands Trains Kevin Williams Derbyshire County Council Lanita Masi East Midlands Trains Brian Welch DfT Julian Daley Merseytravel Simon Taylor East Midlands Trains Chris Loader GMPTE Barry Davies East Midlands Regional Assembly Neil Chadwick Northern Way David Langton First TransPennine Express Graham Botham Network Rail Chris MacRae Freight Transport Association Simon Hughes Network Rail Stephen Clark GMITA Adrian Bocking Network Rail David Leather GMPTE James Angus Network Rail Steve Eccles Halton Borough Council Paul Prescott Network Rail Chris Anslow Lancashire County Council Bob Casselden Network Rail Bob Longworth Manchester Airport Alastair Hutchinson Network Rail Jon Bottomley Manchester Airport John Haith Network Rail David Stopher West Yorkshire Passenger Transport Executive (Metro) David Marshall North East Councils Roger Jones North West Rail Campaign In addition to ad-hoc discussions on specific issues throughout the study the group or subgroups met on Emma Antrobus North West Rail Campaign the following occasions; Rob Warnes Northern Rail • 11 February 2009 Ian Wray North West Development Authority (NWDA)

• 24 February 2009 Claire Jones NWDA Beverley Doward NWDA • 18 March 2009 Simon Dove ONE North East • 26 June 2009 Warren Marshall Peel Airports • 30 June 2009 Neil Chadwick Northern Way • 1 July 2009 Stephen Skeet South Yorkshire Passenger Transport Executive • 18 September 2009 John Jarvis The Northern Way Jon Dunster Virgin Trains Steve Hunter Warrington Borough Council Mike Padgett Yorkshire and Humber Assembly Michael Padgett Yorkshire Forward 80 Appendices 81

Appendix B Phase 2 Scheme Scope Railway System Option Report Capability Benefit set Infrastructure interventions considered ref This appendix summarises the engineering interventions that have been considered as part of the 5.9 Manchester Additional terminal platforms to the Additional platform capacity at None Manchester Hub Study Phase Two. Piccadilly east of the current station and included Manchester Piccadilly Platforms A, B etc in 5.8 and 5.7b For each intervention, the outline scope, and functionality is shown. Interventions are arranged into 5.10 Manchester Piccadilly Provides two additional 200 metre Increased capacity (+25%) on the 2 three groups: those that form the Option 1 set, those platforms through platforms parallel to existing Castlefield corridor by easing the ruling that comprise the Option 2 set and those that have not 15 & 16 only platforms 13 and 14. constraint – which is P13 & 14 been progressed for this study. reoccupation times.

5.11 Manchester Piccadilly As 5.10, but remodels platforms 13 and As 5.10, but also provides more terminal 1 platforms 15 & 16 and 14 too to permit a doubling of the platform capacity through ability to remodel access to connection into the terminal platforms 9 better access platforms 9 to 12. Schedule of Engineering Interventions platforms 9-14 to 12. 5.12 ManchesterOxford Switch & Crossing (S&C) remodelling, Increases through capacity at 1 and 2 Phase 2 Scheme Scope Railway System Option Road platform associated signalling and overhead line Manchester Oxford Road to match that Report Capability Benefit set capacity works and platform lengthening. provided by 5.10 or 5.11. ref 5.13 Castlefield four- Parallel viaduct to the south of the Increases through capacity (provided none 5.1 Adswood Road – Provide two extra tracks over one mile Removes or reduces junction conflict to none tracking existing alignment. 5.10 or 5.11 and 5.12 are also delivered) including a viaduct. release capacity but is not the ruling constraint. four tracking 5.14 Western entrance to Additional electrified loops and S&C to Potential for relief of capacity on the none 5.2a Edgeley Grade Diverts services from Buxton & Hope Valley Removes or reduces junction conflict to none Trafford Park permit access to the west. Requires Castlefield corridor. Supports diversion Separation via Up & Down Cheadle line through a release capacity terminal either 5.15 or 5.16 too. of freight to the West Coast Main Line (Cheadle Curve) new link to the west side of Edgeley Jns (WCML) at Warrington or Winwick Jn. 5.2b Edgeley Grade Creates a flyover at Edgeley No 1 Jn for Removes or reduces junction conflict to none Separation services from the Hazel Grove direction release capacity 5.15 New link between Reinstatement of twin track railway, As 5.14. none (Flyover) Padgate and the electrified, on extant corridor at WCML Warrington and new junctions at 5.3 Rehanding the running Remodel from Slade Lane to Cheadle Removes or reduces junction conflict to none Padgate and on the WCML lines Adswood Road Jn Hulme to pair tracks by destination. release capacity. Benefit not proven – 5.16 New link from Reinstatement of twin track railway, As 5.14. none to Slade Lane Jn issues with stopping services Glazebrook to electrified, on substantially extant 5.4 Slade Lane Six Add two extra tracks between Slade Removes or reduces junction conflict to none Kenyon corridor and new junctions at Kenyon on Track Lane Jn and Manchester Piccadilly release capacity the Chat Moss line.

5.5 Slade Lane – Ardwick Speed changes and signal respacing to Capacity none 5.17 Manchester Airport Provision of a fourth platform and Additional platform capacity for airport 1 and 2 improved Headways deliver two to two and a half minute additional platform associated infrastructure. services. headways

5.6 Ardwick Grade Takes traffic from Ashburys over the Reduced conflict from crossing moves. none 5.18 Ordsall Curve A two track chord line between Up and Provides a direct rail connection between 2 Separation main line using a new flyover to join Down Chat Moss lines and the Up and Manchester Victoria and Manchester near Mayfield Good Loop Down Bolton line. Piccadilly stations. Improved connectivity and access from the North and East to 5.7a Ardwick Flyover – As 5.6, but with a forked ramp at the Further reduced conflict from crossing 1 Manchester Airport. Reduced crossing reduced conflict version Mayfield end to straddle the slow lines. moves conflicts at Ardwick Jn 5.7b Ardwick Eastern The fast lines diverge near Capacity relief for Ardwick Jn, removal of none 5.19 Ordsall Grade Flyover for the Up and Down Chat Moss Improved capacity from reduced crossing none Flyover North Jn onto new viaduct up and over some conflicting moves and new station Separation over the up and Down Bolton lines at moves conflict at Ordsall Lane Jn. the Ashburys Line. Terminates in new facilities. Ordsall. platforms on the East side of Manchester Piccadilly station. 5.20 Salford additional Two additional six-car platforms at Facility for additional stop in the central none 5.8 Midland Curve Provides a connection between Improved connectivity, reduced conflict none platforms Salford Central station on the existing Manchester/Salford conurbation Manchester Victoria and Manchester at Ardwick Jn. Liverpool lines alignment with access Piccadilly via Phillips Park using the and egress arrangements. Midland Curve viaduct. Scope assessed includes two additional lines into two 5.21 Manchester Victoria Extend planned electrification from Enables Chat Moss electric services to none additional platforms at Manchester – Stalybridge Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge pass through Manchester Victoria to Piccadilly. electrification release capacity. 82 Appendices 83

Phase 2 Scheme Scope Railway System Option Phase 2 Scheme Scope Railway System Option Report Capability Benefit set Report Capability Benefit set ref ref 5.22 Astley headways Elimination of headway constraint Remove headway constraint to 2 5.37 Stalybridge - Leeds Dependent on output from the CP4 Journey time saving between none arising from user worked level crossing improve capacity LSI scheme Manchester and Leeds at Astley Signal Box through provision of an overbridge. 5.38 Victoria – Stalybridge All disciplines LSI scope Journey time saving between none LSI Manchester Victoria and Stalybridge 5.23 Manchester Speed change and associated signalling Remove headway constraint to 2 Victoria alterations to implement a 25/35mph improve capacity 5.39 Dewsbury Up loop Reinstate Up loop through Dewsbury trans Pennine capacity benefits 1 and 2 Headways differential maximum speed. station

5.24 Manchester Provide two new six-car platforms at Terminal platforms for services 2 5.40 Marsden to Diggle Reinstate track between Diggle and trans Pennine capacity benefits 1 and 2 Victoria Bay Manchester Victoria connected to the to/from the North West. Releases four-tracking Marsden in the disused bores of platforms Up Salford near Victoria West Jn capacity on the through platforms. Standedge tunnel

5.25 Chat Moss All disciplines scope from LSI to 90mph Improved journey times 1 & 2 5.41 New Mills Central – S&C renewal and remodelling and tmproved speeds for trans Pennine and 2 linespeed between Huyton and Astley. Manchester Victoria signals respacing. commuter services increases (LSI) LSI

5.26 Broad Green – Two additional electrified tracks over Improved capacity allowing freight 2 5.42 LSI Ashton Moss – All disciplines LSI scope Journey time saving none Huyton four-tracking two miles, including Roby and Huyton and stopping services to recess. Heaton Norris Jns stations, with associated resignalling

5.27 St Helens Central Extend electrification. Allows electric services to operate none 5.43 Chinley loops Station works and addition of two trans Pennine capacity benefits 1 and 2 electrification between Huyton and Wigan passing loops

5.28 Golborne Jn speed Increase the speed of turnouts and Increases junction capacity and none 5.44 New Station at Provide new station in Chapel-en-le-Frith Capacity benefit from allowing slow none increase crossovers in the Golborne area improves journey time. Chapel-en-le-Frith trains to get off the main line

5.45b Dore Jn doubling Track, civils & signals to double the chord Improved speed and capacity on Hope 1 and 2 5.29 Manchester - Chester All disciplines LSI scope Journey time saving between See between Dore Station Jn and Dore West Valley services LSI Manchester and Chester 5.11.6 Jn, including Dore & Totley station.

5.45a Grindleford loops Station works and addition of two Improved capacity for Hope Valley 1 and 2 passing loops services 5.30 Manchester - Preston All disciplines LSI scope Journey time saving between See LSI Manchester and Preston via Bolton 5.11.6 5.46 Manchester - All disciplines LSI scope Journey time saving between See Sheffield LSI Manchester and Sheffield 5.11.6

5.31 Bolton Loops Loops on the Bolton Line by creating Improved service frequency possible none Platform 1 and Platform 5 as loop to Bolton and beyond 5.47 Roby conversion three Signalling scope. Included in 5.26 in Capacity benefit on Chat Moss line. 1 platforms to four-aspect signalling Option 2 5.32 Salford Crescent Control Period 4 (CP4) works Extra capacity at Salford Crescent none 5.48 Ashburys to Guide Remodelling work and four-tracking over Capacity 1 assumed in CP4 Bridge four-tracking 3.5 miles 5.33 Castleton Jns to Bury Remodel Junction at Castleton South, Allows trains to operate between East none and other works Lancs and Victoria.

5.34 Rochdale bay Remodel Rochdale to allow a bay Increases capacity on Calder Valley 1 and 2 platform platform in which to reverse towards line Manchester

5.35 Manchester - Bradford All disciplines LSI scope Journey time saving between See LSI Manchester and Bradford 5.11.6

5.36 Headway improvement Improve headways on Calder Valley, Increases capacity on Calder Valley none Calder Valley 84 Appendices 85

Appendix C • Leeds and further north east via Huddersfield – four tph Manchester Airport • Diggle route eight tph fast and two tph semi-fast Ten tph from Manchester and beyond, two tph from The modelled timetable Crewe and beyond: - six tph fast or semi-fast inter-regional services pro - A summary of the off-peak pattern of the service that • Hope Valley – 4 tph fast: two via Stockport, and one via viding for commuters at Ashton-under-Lyne, Staly - was modelled is provided below. With the exception of Dore South Curve • half hourly from Leeds via Huddersfield: one from New - bridge, Huddersfield and Dewsbury the Chat Moss route, the level of service provision on castle and one from Middlesbrough • Leeds via Bradford / Halifax and Calder Valley half - Stalybridge half hourly, one from Huddersfield (des - the corridors remained the same in both the options hourly fast, one tph semi-fast • half hourly from Preston: one from Scotland and one tination Manchester Victoria in Option 1 and desti - considered, the big difference being how the services from Blackpool nation Manchester Piccadilly in Option 2) were handled in the centre. • Leeds via Brighouse and Calder Valley – one tph semi-fast • half hourly stopping service from Liverpool - Huddersfield – Leeds half hourly Long distance • Preston – four tph fast - two via Wigan and WCML, two • London service - 20 minute frequency fast – two trains via Bolton: one service originating from Scotland alter - • half hourly from Crewe with one starting from Stoke-on- - one tph Calder Valley via Brighouse fast to Leeds per hour (tph) via Stoke-on-Trent and one tph via Crewe nating between Edinburgh and Glasgow Trent • Manchester – Leeds via Calder Valley and Bradford six • Birmingham service - 30 minute frequency fast – one • Liverpool – • hourly from via Sheffield tph tph via Stoke-on-Trent and one tph via Crewe - Option 1 (see 5.11) two tph fast via Chat Moss, two • hourly from Southport via Salford Crescent - four tph fast or semi-fast inter-regional • Trafford Park freight - two tph from the WCML tph semi-fast via CLC • hourly from Chester via Manchester - Manchester - Rochdale half hourly • Bootle Branch – Earlestown – WCML freight two tph - Option 2 (see 5.11) becomes four tph fast via Chat Moss, two tph semi-fast via CLC • hourly from Bradford and Halifax • Bolton Corridor seven tph • Ordsall Lane Jn – WCML freight two tph: with one from beyond Victoria. • Liverpool - Preston – half hourly fast via St Helens Central - two tph fast inter-regional providing services at key commuter stations and with on train capacity eased Inter-Regional and trans Pennine • Chester and further west – half hourly Key Commuter Corridors by two more via WCML The pattern of inter-regional services from Manchester • Manchester Airport 10 tph • Cardiff – one tph - Preston half hourly that was modelled is as below, noting that many of the - eight tph fast inter-regional services services work through Manchester to create through links: • Birmingham via Stoke-on-Trent and Macclesfield one tph. - Blackburn one tph - half hourly all stops The impact of these additional inter-regional services - Wigan via Bolton half hourly both from Southport on the existing timetable is summarised by Figure C.1 • Stockport Corridor – 16 tph • Atherton Line three tph Figure C.1 Inter-regional services - nine tph fast long distance or inter-regional services providing for commuters at Chinley, Hazel Grove, - on train capacity eased from two fast inter-regional Services to Destinations in modelled option Macclesfield, Wilmslow, Stoke-on-Trent and Crewe via WCML Option Manchester MA* Other direct destinations - Alderley Edge half hourly, one from Crewe - Wigan via Atherton half hourly slow, one from Kirkby Sheffield Base 21Liverpool 1 141Liverpool 2 Preston 1 - Macclesfield hourly - Wigan one tph semi-fast 241Liverpool 2 Preston 1 - Buxton two tph • Lime Street – Wigan via St Helens Central four tph Leeds Base 42Liverpool 1 - Northwich line, two tph - half hourly fast inter-regional 162Liverpool 2 Chester 1 Southport 1 262Liverpool 2 Chester 1 Southport 1 • Marple Corridor – six tph - half hourly Wigan Bradford - two tph fast inter-regional services • Chat Moss four tph Option 1, six tph Option 2 (from Leeds) Base 2-- 141Preston 1 - Marple one tph - half hourly or quarter hourly fast inter-regional pro - 241Liverpool 1 Preston 1 Wigan viding services at key commuter stations - Rose Hill one tph Liverpool Base 31Norwich 1 Scarborough 1 - Manchester to Liverpool Lime Street half hourly 14-Norwich 1 Scarborough 1 Doncaster 1 Hull 1 - Chinley half hourly, one from Sheffield on alternate hours • CLC four tph 261Norwich 1 Scarborough 1 Doncaster 1 Hull 1 Leeds via Bradford 1 • Hadfield line four tph Chester Base 1-- - half hourly semi-fast inter-regional providing serv - 121Leeds 1 - Hadfield half hourly ices at key commuter stations 221Leeds 1 - Glossop half hourly - Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Airport to Preston Base 22- Liverpool Lime Street half hourly. 142Leeds via Bradford 1 East Midlands 1 242Leeds via Bradford 1 East Midlands 1 Cardiff Base 1-- 11-- 21-- Birmingham Base --- 11-- 21-- * Manchester Airport