<<

IPCS Special ReportIPCS Special Report 105

June 2011

A Paradigm Shift?

Elections to the Tibetan -in- 2011

Bhavna Singh

Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies

Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies

B­7/3, Safdarjung Enclave New Delhi 110029 91­11­4100 1900 www.ipcs.org

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Bhavna Singh is a Research Officer at the IPCS, New Delhi.

The author is responsible for the facts, views or opinion expressed in this essay.

RECENT SPECIAL REPORTS 18th ASEAN Summit: A Critique Special Report #102, May 2011

Security Net: Nuclear Risk Reduction in Southern Asia Lydia Walker & Annie Siris Coombs, Special Report #101, May 2011

ASEAN and : A Perspective from Address by H.E. Lt. Gen. (Retd) Andi M. Ghalib, Ambassador of the Republic of Indonesia, Special Report #100, May 2011

© 2011, Institute of Peace and Conflict “General Musharraf’s four point formula can provide an effective Studies (IPCS) roadmap in Kashmir”: An interview with Prof Abdul Ghani Bhat Nadir Ali, Research Assistant, IPCS, Special Report #99, Feb 2011 The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies is not responsible for the facts, views or India’s Strategic Interests in : An Interview with Shyam opinion expressed by the author. Saran Medha Chaturvedi, Special Report #98, February 2011 The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), established in August 1996, is an India‐ Relations: Issues, Problems & Recent develop‐ independent think tank devoted to re- ments search on peace and security from a South Piyali Dutta, Special Report #97, Sep 2010 Asian perspective.

Its aim is to develop a comprehensive and Ethnicity, and in : 's Triple Co‐ alternative framework for peace and secu- nundrum rity in the region catering to the changing Bhavna Singh, Special Report #96, August 2010 demands of national, regional and global security. Water Issues between Nepal, India & Bangladesh: A Review of Lit‐ erature Pia Malhotra, Special Report #95, July 2010 Address: B 7/3 Lower Ground Floor & : Understanding Islamabad’s Objectives and Safdarjung Enclave Strategies New Delhi 110029 Sripathi Naryanan, Special Report #94, July 2010 INDIA Obama’s Afghanistan Policy: A Review of Literature Tel: 91-11-4100 1900, 4165 2556, 4165 2557, Debalina Chatterjee, Special Report #93, July 2010 4165 2558, 4165 2559 The Faisal Shahzad Story: Insights, Lessons and Implications Fax: (91-11) 4165 2560 Ishita Mattoo, Special Report #92, June 2010 Email: [email protected] Web: www.ipcs.org Sino‐Indian Relations: Sixty Years of Experience and Enlightenment Amb. Cheng Ruisheng , Special Report #91, June 2010 A Paradigm Shift? to the Tibetan Government‐in‐Exile 2011

Bhavna Singh

While functioning across the of identity survival. With LobsangSangay set world face numerous challenges in building to take the official oath and charge of the consensus and maintaining legitimacy, the position of the KalonTripa of the 15th Tibetan community in exile is an Tibetan Parliament administration at the exceptionalexperiment in democratization beginning of August 2011, the paper also of a de‐territorialized community. For an probes the future challenges for the new entity which does not even fulfill the leadership and China’s reactions to these prerequisites of becoming a state,1 it has developments.2 remarkably managed to keep itself intact based on worldwide recognition of its I charismatic leader, the Dalai Lama. Since its Political Activism in De­territorialized inception in April 1959, the Tibetan Spaces Government‐in‐exile (TGiE) has continued to work as the de facto government of an Contesting Chinese notions on Tibet, the ‘independent Tibetan nation’ which for all TGiE was set up to provide a representative practical purposes is not recognized by any mechanism to the ungrounded citizens of country formally. It has provided a sense of Tibet after the Dalai Lama’s escape to India. identity and representation to not only the From its embryonic stage almost fifty years Tibetan community in exile but also to back, the Tibetan movement has emerged those six million Tibetans living inside as a successful case of activism from exile. It Tibet. gathered sustenance from various countries over its period of growth which of course, In view of the unfolding political changes – harboured their own agendas to provide the ’s (Tenzin Gyatso) support. For instance, the CIA and the decision to relinquish political authority National Endowment for (NED) and the appointment of LobsangSangay as helped publicize the cause of Tibetan the new KalonTripa (Prime minster of the resistance in the 1960s and 1980s TGiE) – this study examines the likely respectively and India gave support under trajectory of the Tibetan struggle in pursuit the rubric of protection of human rights. However, the movement achieved a self‐ 1 The Tibetan community in China is spread over a built momentum, especially after the 1990s. huge expanse of territory starting from the Tibetan Autonomous Region, to the provinces of Some significant milestones during its Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan within progression have been the promulgation of China. The great geographical spread the Draft for a future of Tibet provisioned for the extrapolation of a Greater Tibet theory in the earlier decades, however, the by the first Commission of Tibetan People’s Chinese government has unremittingly refuted Deputies in 1963 and the establishment of these claims. On a parallel scale, the Tibetan the Charter for the Tibetans‐in‐exile drafted expatriates (numbering approximately 1, 45,000) by the Assembly of Tibetan People’s are settled in various parts of India, Nepal and Deputies (ATPD) in 1991. These as well as other parts of the world. developments have facilitated the Ancient Tibet is believed to have been instituting of the Tibetan Parliament‐in‐ constituted by three provinces which were known through the concept of Cholkha-sum and this idea continues to influence the Tibetan 2 The study is based on a field trip from 17 to 22 demand for recognition of greater Tibet. On the March 2011 to , the seat of Tibetan other hand, the only territory that the Chinese Government in exile during the time of the state recognizes as entirely Tibetan is the Tibetan polling for the TGiE elections and the follow up Autonomous Region. of the results thereafter.

IPCS Special Report 105, June 2011

exile, with several ministries and the engage in myriad tasks. But, at operational Kashag (Cabinet) under the stewardship of levels the government has very limited the Dalai Lama. powers. Its security forces can make no arrests; its tax office faces constraints in The main aim of the Central Tibetan levying taxes and enforcing payments. And Administration (CTA) of the Dalai Lama has most significantly, its foreign affairs been to provide for rehabilitation of the department has failed to establish formal Tibetan refugees and restoration of their diplomatic relations with any country.5 The happiness and well‐being.3 And being the current elections thus reflect an attempt to foremost representative institution it restructure their administration and continues to cater to the persisting stream overcome the shortcomings that have been of refugees filtering through the northern observed since its inception. Himalayan ranges. The main reason for this restructuring of The TGiE is, however, not by any means the political apparatus is that the Tibetan either an elaborate bureaucratic or a Charter does not allow a person to be re‐ massive infrastructural set up when elected beyond two successive terms as the compared to modern‐day democracies. It KalonTripa and the current incumbent, comprises 46 members out of which 43 are SamdhongRinponche has completed his two elected and three are appointed by the Dalai terms. Moreover, so far, the virtual Lama, overseeing seven ministries namely, authority of the KalonTripa has remained Home, Education, Security, Finance, Health, under the canopy of the spiritual guidance Information and International Relations, from Dalai Lama. However, this setup and Religion and Culture. These are further cannot be sustained any longer as he is supplemented by a supreme justice getting old and so now there is a need to commission, an auditor’s office, and a public nurture younger leaders to carry forward service commission to aid and abet the the cause of Tibet. The 2011 elections functioning of their infant democracy. The therefore, mark a critical juncture in the entire apparatus is constructed within a Tibetans political history in terms of reach of three to four kilometers and the democratic maturity as well as their establishment operates with an annual struggle for self‐determination. budget of approximately Rs.913 million.4 Consequently, the political community is a II close‐knit unit where the same set of people The – KalonTripa and the Kashag 3 Central Tibetan administration: Background, The official website of Central Tibetan Administration, A total of 40 regional chapters in six Online URL: countries and three continents voted on 20 http://www.tibet.net/en/index.php?id=14 March 2011 with an almost 80,000 4 PhurbuThinley, ‘Tibetan government tables registered electorate (actual voting budget for 2010/2011 in Parliament,’ amounted to approx. 50,000 in the final www.phayul.com, 8 March 2010. Online URL: 6 http://www.phayul.com/news/article.aspx?id=2682 round). The Chinese authorities for their 4&t=1.The proposed budget has a total outlay of over 913 million rupees, against the predicted 5 Tim Johnson, Tragedy in Crimson: How the revenue of about 848 million rupees for the fiscal Dalai Lama Conquered the World but Lost the year. Out of the total budget proposed, about 28 per Battle with China, Nation books, New York, 2011, cent of it is allocated on increasing awareness of p.127. the issue of Tibet, 28.77 percent on welfare 6 In India these constituencies included: Ladakh (J services, 17 percent on education, 11.29 percent on & K); Dharamsala, Bir, Dalhousie, Shimla, Poanta running cost of the administration, 8.70 per cent on Sahib, PandohTashiling, Puruwala, Manali (H.P.), health, 3.97 per cent on religion and culture and Delhi, Nainital, Clementown, Deckyiling, 2.28 per cent on others. Herbertpur, Haridwar, Mussorie, Rajpur

Elections to the Tibetan Government‐in‐Exile 2011

part continued to dismiss the elections as elections was on the post of the Prime being hardly close to democracy and Minster, the 15th Tibetan elections have dubbed them only “skin deep.” The brought a large number of younger authorities claimed that the National members into Parliament. Democratic Party of the Tibet (NDPT) was “only [a] of the Dalai TheKalonTripa (or Prime Minister): The clique” and therefore the elections were three candidates (LobsangSangay, Tenzin premeditated through an already selected TethongNamgyalandTashiWangdi) who list of candidates.7 It is quite ironical for the emerged as prime contenders for the post Communist Party of China (CPC) to of the KalonTripa after the preliminary disparage the Tibetan elections when it round on 3 October 2010 came from similar conducts its own elections this way. backgrounds and espoused similar ideals for the future of Tibet. In a rebuttal to the Chinese claim, the TGiE pointed out that “those familiar with the The prime contender LobsangSangay, rituals of electioneering in exile would also previously elected as the youngest know about the conspicuous absence of executive member of the Tibetan Youth public hustings and competing political Congress (CENTREX) in 1992, gained parties that are the central characteristic of prominence as an expert on international elections in democratic countries.” The law, democratic constitutionalism, and incumbent KalonTripa, Samdhong Rinpoche conflict resolution.8 defended the Tibetan polity as being “a partyless democracy.”Despite China’s Tenzin NamgyalTethong, his primary cunning response and prophecies of the opponent, a distinguished fellow at the elections being doomed, the elections took Tibetan Studies Initiative, Stanford place smoothly. University was a founding member and President of the Dalai Lama Foundation So, for the purpose of an objective analysis, andserved as an advisor to the local Tibetan one should remember that if China can Community Center project.While boast of a democracy with Chinese TashiWangdi, another contender for the characteristics, it is unwarranted to post,was a Representative of the Dalai Lama denigrate the Tibetan efforts as futile or to Europe. superficial. While the primary focus of the Thus, the most significant factor (Uttarakhand), Phuntsokling (Orissa), Bhandara differentiating and influencing the mandate (Maharashtra), Mainpat (Madya Pradesh), of common Tibetans was the candidate’s Darjeeling, Kalimpong (West Bengal), Tenzin ability to convince them about their Gang, Miao, Tezu (Arunachal Pradesh), Shillong exceptional commitment to guide the (Meghalaya), Gangtok, Ravangla (Sikkim), and people of Tibet in achieving their goal.9 In Bylakuppe, Hunsur, Mundgod, Kollegal this regard, LobsangSangay emerged as the (Karnataka). Similarly, the Tibetan in several most preferred candidate primarily because constituencies in Nepal (Kathmandu,PokhraTashipalkhiel,PokhraTashiling) of two reasons: first, given his expertise in , the US (New York and New Jersey, Minnesota), , which he has acquired as (Ontario) and Europe (Switzerland, a research fellow at the East Asian Legal ) also surged forward to elect their representatives. A total of 11030 approx. people 8 Profile of the candidates availed from the web, casted their votes in Dhramshala. KalonTripa 2011: Change and Choice- A necessity, 7DhondupGyalpo, ‘Chinese Slandering of the Home page, Online URL: www.kalontripa.org Tibetan elections,’ Tibetan Bulletin, Vol. 14, Issue 9Interview with Tenzin Dhardon, Research and No.3. Online URL: Media Officer, Tibetan’s Women Association, http://www.tibet.net/en/tibbull.php?bullart=1024& Office Building, Mcleodganj, Dharamshala, 18 bullvolume=14&bullissue=3 March 2011.

IPCS Special Report 105, June 2011

Program at Harvard Law School and second, Parliament in exile boasts of an his entry into Tibetan politics at a much overwhelming number of promising younger age as compared to others. It candidates, especially from Dharamshala. seemed more appropriate for the Tibetans The break‐up of the representation to choose a younger leader who will amongst the various provinces and sects is continue to represent the Tibetan agenda as follows: U‐Tsang, Do‐toe and Do‐med, the internationally for a substantial length of three traditional provinces of Tibet, elect 10 time was more beneficial for a community members each including two women as compared to training someone who members for each province, while the four might exit from the political scenario at a schools of Tibetan Buddhism and the comparatively earlier time.10 traditional Bon faith elect two members Further on, many Tibetans were able to each. Three members are elected by associate more with Sangay’s personal Tibetans in the West: two from Europe and warmth, oratory, and strong leadership one from North America. In addition, the skills, believing him to be capable of Dalai Lama has the discretion to nominate bringing a clear vision that will be bold and or not nominate one to three members.11 vibrant enough to seize the interest and imagination of the youngsters within China. The government however, operates with a miniscule budget, which begs the question – There is also perhaps a tendency amongst where do these candidates get the money the Tibetans to ape and compete with the for their election expenses from? On Chinese political structure and since the interacting with some local Tibetans it came Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo is to light that many of the candidates make largely becoming dominated by legal arrangements with the local business house experts and technocrats, the Tibetans have especially food joints, which agree to raised a leader with a similar profile as their provide both the money and the space for frontrunner. Another major reason for campaigning of the candidates in lieu of Sangay’s success is being attributed to his publicity for their brand.12LobsangWangyal connections with the Chinese mainland; he estimated that the cost of posters and media has spoken in hundreds of seminars around coverage for LobsangSangay ranged from the world and debated with renowned anywhere between Rs.10, 000‐Rs.12, 000, Chinese scholars and is well aware of which he said was modest and manageable. contemporary Chinese politics and legal For those who are unable to get support issues. He is seen as representing the locally, it is a matter of individual and Tibetans’ stand in China and his technology‐ personal investment and depends on their savvy practices assist him in reaching out to own capacity. local Tibetans. All these factors helped him in accomplishing a clear mandate with The TGiE however, relies on more formal 27,051 votes, a 55 per cent majority. means of support and substantiates most of its funds from the Privy Purse of the Dalai The Kashag(Cabinet)–The elections to the council of ministers were devoid of the 11 For details on Election Commission see: Election excitement surrounding the KalonTripa’s Commission, About CTA, www.tibet.net,Online appointment and the Speaker’selection was URL: http://www.tibet.net/en/index.php?id=245 to be delayed as late as end of May. 12 In a conversation, Tenzin Tsundue, a renowned Nonetheless, the cabinet of 15th Tibetan poet and activist in the Tibetan community shed light on the growing interdependence and negotiations between the popular cafes and their 10Interview with LobsangWangyal, media activist clientele for the purpose of fighting together for a and organizer of the Miss Tibet pageant, Tennor common aim. This way the two (entrepreneurs and Restaurant, Mcleodganj, Dharamshala, 19 March activists) mutually help each other in furthering 2011. their particular agendas.

Elections to the Tibetan Government‐in‐Exile 2011

Lama by and large, which in turn is fact that since the Fifth Dalai Lama’s continuously refurbished by donations from founding of the GadenPhodrang abroad. This also raises the question of Government of Tibet in 1642, successive what kind of wealth sharing system might Dalai Lama’s had operated as both the come into place when the Dalai Lama hands spiritual and temporal leaders of Tibet; the over the reins of the Tibetan community in‐ Dalai Lama’s decision thus marks a formal exile to the new KalonTripa, since many of end to the institution itself. the activities in the Tibetan government often depend on the Dalai Lama’s private Second, in terms of the nature of power, the assistance. election symbolized the transfer of power from a charismatic leader to a legal‐rational III set up (contextualized within Weber’s The 2011 Election: A Synoptic theory of authority). The election also Assessment symbolized the recognition of the political maturity of the Tibetan community in A multitude of factors converge to make the general deriving from the 50 years of their 2011 election a transformative milestone in existence in exile and marking 20 years of Tibetan history. First, the Dalai Lama adoption of the charter. In sync with the announced about 10 days before the Dalai Lama’s strong wish to introduce elections that he would be relinquishing all appropriate modern reforms in accordance his political responsibilities and continue to with the changing times and an increased guide the Tibetan’s only as a spiritual urgency due to his ascending age, the Draft leader. The Dalai Lama had repeatedly Constitution for a future of Tibet (1963) and argued for the need for political change the Charter for the Tibetans‐in‐exile (1991) previously and reiterated this in his have been currently referred for statement in March 2011 saying, “the amendment. Most Tibetans believe that the essence of a democratic system is the elections will augur a new era of reassertion assumption of political responsibility by of Tibetan identity through voicing elected leaders for the popular good” and grievances and staging protests. This also maintained that even the continuation of suggested immense pressure on the the Dalai Lama is for the people to decide.13 nominees and the electorate in the run‐up He also insisted that the title of the present to the vote in deciding to assign huge institution of the GadenPhodrang14 headed responsibility on a single individual, on by the Dalai Lama be changed.15 Given the someone who was not born in Tibet (TAR).16

13 Translated version of the Dalai Lama’s letter Third, even in terms of the methods addressed to the members of the Fourteenth employed to garner support, the elections Assembly of the Tibetan People’s Deputies, dated marked a radical change. There was 11 March 2011, procured from the main office of increased communication between the the Tibetan Parliament-in-Exile. Tibetans in TAR and those in exile through 14GadenPhodrang means the Dalai Lama is the spiritual as well as temporal authority and the websites like the QQ authority of the institution was informally devolved (http://www.qq.com/). And the youngsters 10 years back with the election of the first head of in exile seemed highly inspired by the the state SamdhongRinponche as the KalonTripa. internet in the other parts of the 15 In his statement the Dalai Lama stated, “My intention to devolve political authority derives neither from a wish to shirk responsibility nor Tibetan administration and our struggle until the because I am disheartened. On the contrary, I wish issue of Tibet has been successfully resolved.” to devolve authority solely for the benefit of the 16Interview with Tenzin Dhardon, Research and Tibetan people in the long run. It is extremely Media Officer, Tibetan’s Women Association, important that we ensure the continuity of our exile Mcleodganj.Dharamshala, 18 March 2011.

IPCS Special Report 105, June 2011

world that had been instigated by social IV networking portals like Facebook and The Youth: Active and Aspiring Twitter. According to LobsangWangyal, a popular figure in the Tibetan community The Tibetan youth community exhibits several Tibetans inside the TAR responded immense political activism through vibrant with great alacrity to the election procedure participation. Several organizations like the and made their opinions known through the (TYC) and the medium of internet.17 Tibetan Women’s Association (TWA) have huge sections of young people who are as Fourth, massive and image dedicated to the cause of the Tibetan projection was elicited locally by the three identity as political leaders. However, in contestants for the post of the KalonTripa. comparison to the glorified image projected Posters with arguments and counter‐ by the political leadership, this huge section arguments could be seen all over the streets of young pioneers hold a much more and the sense of competition was fierce. All pessimistic picture of the Tibetan future. three candidates reached out to their They are divided into several groups with audiences through internet communication different aspirations and different concerns. which was a major achievement for them. LobsangWangyal also attested to the While one section remains highly political calumny and negative campaigning disenchanted with the Dalai Lama’s ‘middle that was resorted to from all the three sides way approach,’ believing it has failed to given the fierce competition between the bear significant fruit but continues to pay candidates.18 lip service to it, another section Fifth, the elections actually brought to fore concentrates on day‐to‐day affairs. There is the various succession issues in both the yet another totally apolitical stream in the political and spiritual establishments. While population mostly comprised of monks who the Tibetans celebrated the Losar (Tibetan believe nothing but meditation to be their New Year) on 5‐6 March 2011 and only ‘karma’ (responsibility). Tibetan youth anniversary of the Tibetan National meanwhile, makes increasing use of the Uprising on 10 March, the election media to air their grievances and there is a atmosphere remained clouded by various huge media‐frenzy in the community given controversies such as the Karmapa scandal. the need for creating awareness about the This related to the recovery of huge Tibetan issue. To this end, several cultural amounts of currency from the Karmapa’s groups like the TIPA (Tibetan Academy of office.19 The next section explores the views Performing Arts) and musicians are seeking and expectations of the Tibetan Youth in to make their presence felt. exile and how they perceive this change. One of the prominent examples is the ‘JJI Exile brothers’, a Tibetan musical group

17 which has taken to singing as a medium of It is interesting to note that a call from expression of their grievances. The group Dharamshala to China costs merely Re.1 given the frequency of usage and very few instances of has composed several songs in the Tibetan intercepting or espionage were cited by the language to promote the dying use of their localites during the course of interviews. mother tongue and also in Hindi to express 18Interview with LobsangWangyal, Media activist gratitude to their host country. The danger and Organizer of the Miss Tibet pageant, Tennor of losing their culture and identity was also Restaurant, Mcleodganj, Dharamshala, 19 March mentioned by TseringYoudon, who 2011. 19 represents the Amdo prefecture in the For detailed information please refer to the IPCS Standing Committee of the Parliament. She article- Pre-election flare-ups for the Tibetan stated that the Tibetan language is generally community: allegations and rebuttal by Bhavna Singh, Article no. 3339, 4 March 2011. pursued in the Tibetan schools with English

Elections to the Tibetan Government‐in‐Exile 2011

being introduced only from the sixth grade. to the TAR. This stand however has led to a And though there is a remarkable literacy breach between the local Indians mostly rate of almost around 90 per cent amongst Kashmiris and Himachalis, who live in the the Tibetans, there are no higher eternal fear that such sections may turn out institutions/universities for the community. to be Chinese agents. Lack of proper This becomes a substantial hurdle in knowledge and misinterpretation of facts preserving their language, identity and might be the basis of such claims. culture leading to its abysmal state.20 Unmistakably, the youth is divided into Another issue of serious concern amongst several streams some of them verging on the Tibetan youth is that despite the high the brink of violent assertion, others level of literacy, most Tibetans are utilizing a more soft‐power approach, and employed in very low‐profile jobs like in the yet others being politically insensitive to health care industry as nurses or in the their surroundings. And in the similar vein, education sector. They face a huge dilemma they have different expectations from the since employment requires the usage of post‐elections scenario. On the one hand English as a primary language which in turn many believe that once the Dalai Lama has means a compromise with Tibetan language handed over the political reins he might propagation. Thus, the conservation of their actually be allowed to visit Tibet, but such a language and culture is challenged by the possibility seems rather bleak. On the other needs of modern‐day industries. hand the Tibetan community expects the new leader to bring about substantive Among those who associate actively with changes in the status of the Tibetan exiles the Tibetan political agendas allegorical by making the issue more and more references to Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson prominent in the international arena and Mandela and the like are quite apparent. resorting to legal ways for this purpose.22 A Most of the Tibetans associate their struggle consensus is slowly emerging that the with that of the Indian national struggle, the ultimate goal of the Tibetans would be to Irish struggle and similar experiences world return to the motherland with the least over. Simultaneously, the radical faction is amount of discomfiture for people on either balanced out by a more mature group which side of the boundary once the human rights while aspiring to gain for the situation is taken care of. motherland is inclined to non‐violence when they realize the fact of China’s V growing economic might and how alienated Future: Reunion or Reassertion? they are internationally.21 While speculation abounds as to who will There is also a substantial section of the be the next Dalai Lama – whether it will be a community who voice their eagerness to male or female; or whether there will be a work hand in hand with the Chinese people Dalai Lama at all – there is no definite to develop mutual understanding about the answer within the Tibetan community. On situation of the Tibetans in exile, which they the one hand, they are sure that China will believe is a more pragmatic approach given try to re‐enact the spectacle that was the fact that they ultimately want to go back witnessed in the case of the Panchem Lama, on the other hand they are scared about 20Interview with TseringYoudon, Member of the losing the cultural heritage that has been Standing Committee/GangchenKyishong, vested with the institution of the Dalai representing Amdo Prefecture, Dharamshala, 20 March 2011. 21Interview with Tenzin Dhardon, Research and 22Interview with Tenzin Dhardon, Research and Media Officer, Tibetan’s Women Association, Media Officer, Tibetan’s Women Association, Mcleodganj, Dharamshala, 18 March 2011. Mcleodganj, Dharamshala, 18 March 2011.

IPCS Special Report 105, June 2011

Lama. A prophecy made by the 13th Dalai remains the case, then any political Lama about the end of the institution has bargaining might prove counterproductive. been conveniently ignored or rather deliberately kept in abeyance to avoid China’s obstinacy is evident in its speculation and panic.23 Another question immediate shift of verbal targeting from the troubling the Tibetan community is Dalai Lama to the new KalonTripa. The whether LobsangSangay will be able to Chinese government has often labeled the maintain the momentum of Tibetan struggle Dalai Lama as a splittist, made personal built by the Dalai Lama on the basis of his attacks on him and insisted that he cease all charismatic appeal. his separatist activities. Taking this into cognizance, the shift of authority from the So far Tibetan exiles are basing their Dalai Lama to the new KalonTripa was expectations on what unfolds in the Chinese meant to keep such criticism at bay for the territories in the near future. In an exercise new individual and allowing him a free in 2009, a group of China analysts hand in operations. However, China was developed three possible scenarios for quick to reconfigure its center of attention China’s future: Scenario I – “fragmentation and align its policy deviating from personal of China” – where escalating social demands attack of the Dalai Lama to the leader of will chip away at the Communist Party’s Tibetan affairs regardless of who or what he legitimacy; Scenario II – “China as a strong is. An article in the People’s Daily, equated state” with the Party sustaining high LobsangSangay to a “terrorist” for once economic growth all decade, and Scenario serving as an executive member in the pro‐ III – “China with partial democracy” where independence group the Tibetan Youth the party will retain great political power Congress (TYC), even before the poll results but only after opening up the political were declared.25 system because of its failure to meet rising economic expectations and to combat LobsangSangay observes that such attacks corruption.24 In the case of both Scenario I are “not helpful in creating a conducive and Scenario III, the Tibetans might be able atmosphere for peaceful dialogue” and that to gain substantive leverage against the it demoralizes the TGiE which has been Chinese authorities. But if Scenario II trying to engage China in nine rounds of talks since 2001.26 He himself conceded that

23 much of Tibet’s future will depend on A slide in the Tibet Museum in McLeodganj, 27 Dhramshala talks of a prophecy by the 13th Dalai circumstantial developments and thus Lama who said before dying: “Very soon in this that the Tibetans will have to adopt a wait land (with a harmonious blend of religion and and watch as well as prepare in the politics) deceptive acts may occur from without meantime. He further stated that he would and within. At that time, if we do not dare to protect our territory, our spiritual personalities including the Victorious Father and Son (Dalai 25 Li Hongmei, Terrorist set to rule Tibetan Lama and Panchen Lama) may be exterminated Government-in-exile, 22 March 2011, people’s without trace, the property and authority of Daily Online, Online URL: our Lakangs (residences of reincarnated lamas) and http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90002/96417/732 monks may be taken away. Moreover, our political 6988.html system, developed by the Three Great Dharma 26KalsangRinchen, Tibetan PM elect asks India to Kings (Tri SongtsenGampo, Tri include Tibet as “core issue” with China, 23 May Songdetsen and Tri Ralpachen) will vanish without 2011, Online URL: anything remaining. The property of all people, http://www.phayul.com/news/article.aspx?article= high and low, will be seized and the people forced Tibetan+PM+elect+asks+India+to+include+Tibet+ to become slaves. All living beings will have to as+%22core+issue%22+with+China&id=29569 endure endless days of suffering and will be 27 Interview with Dr. LobsangSangay, Nominee stricken with fear. Such a time will come.” Candidate for KalonTripa, Mcleodganj, 24 Tim Johnson, op. cit, pp. 296-297. Dharamshala, 21 March 2011.

Elections to the Tibetan Government‐in‐Exile 2011

adopt a track‐II diplomacy approach to intent of giving no clemency to religious or reach out to Chinese academics, cultural institutions. businessmen, dissidents and lay people to help them develop a better understanding Despite the fact that China is facing of the issue of Tibet and that this bottom‐up consecutive defiance from different regions strategy would help in influencing the within its territory, no efforts have been Chinese government.28 made by the peoples in these regions to build networks/connect with the other One of the major challenges that Lobsang movements for preservation of their culture faces is convincing the Indian government and autonomy in China. This is either to take a clear stand on the Tibet issue. because not much thought has been given to Towards this end, he has made an appeal to the idea or because it is being avoided to the Indian government to make Tibet a differentiate the Tibetans’ peaceful and ‘core issue’ in the talks between India and non‐violent struggle from the violent China.29 The second major challenge relates struggle of the Uyghurs, for example. to his claim of making it possible for the Though some informal empathy exists, most Dalai Lama to return to Tibet once in his activists from these regions know each lifetime by giving a positive shape to the other through regular seminars and deliberations between the two sides. The conferences held in and out of mainland possibility of such an arrangement has been China.31 This in essence is the biggest made worse by China’s unchanged stance challenge for the new Tibetan leadership – on Dalai Lama. Governor Padma Choling to maintain the non‐violent nature of their (TAR) told reporters at a briefing in Beijing struggle. Once the Tibetan youth resorts to that “the door is always open” for the Dalai arms, the struggle will reach its dead end Lama’s return but only if he meets China’s through loss of international support as preconditions.30 well by giving the Chinese a reason to clamp down on them with still greater violence. Though one might argue that the spread of Buddhism in China demonstrates how In sum, SamdhongRinponche’s reservations despite lack of political progress, the Dalai on conducting massive, visible Lama is winning the spiritual war against electioneering in an exile situation have the Chinese, such an argument is rather been steered in the background since the unsubstantiated. Recent reports suggest elections took place without any significant that there is a heavy crackdown on Tibetan untoward incident from the Chinese side. Buddhist monasteries when they are found The Dalai Lama continues to maintain that to be indulging in activities which go against the Tibetan people’s needs, as set out in the the interests of the state. The recent Memorandum, can be met within the squelching of the Kirti Monastery in Ngaba framework and spirit of the Constitution area of northeastern Tibet validates China’s and its principles on autonomy and that these proposals do not contravene or conflict with the ‘three adherences’ as 28 Interview with Dr. LobsangSangay, Nominee Candidate for KalonTripa, Mcleodganj, stipulated by Beijing – the leadership of the Dharamshala, 21 March 2011. Chinese Communist Party; with 29KalsangRinchen, Opcit. Chinese characteristics; and Regional 30 That is, he must accept Tibet is an inalienable National Autonomy system.32Amendments part of China and recognize as a province of China. See ‘China: Stance on Dalai Lama same post retirement,’ 19 May 2011, www.phayul.com. 31 Interview with Dr. LobsangSangay, Nominee Online Candidate for Kalontripa, Mcleodganj, URL:http://www.phayul.com/news/article.aspx?arti Dharamshala, 21 March 2011. cle=China%3a+Stance+on+Dalai+Lama+same+po 32Note on the Memorandum on Genuine Autonomy st+retirement&id=29559. for the Tibetan People, Tibetan Bulletin, Vol. 14,

IPCS Special Report 105, June 2011

to the charter have begun with LobsangSangay set to take the oath on 14 August 2011. But whether or not the Dalai Lama’s political successor will be able to pierce China’s steel hardy framework on Tibet and squeeze out any tangible gains remains to be seen.

Select Readings:

Melvyn C. Goldstein, The Snow Lion and the Dragon, China Tibet and the Dalai Lama, University of Press, Oxford, 1997.

Tim Johnson, Tragedy in Crimson: How the Dalai Lama Conquered the World but Lost the Battle with China, Nation books, New York, 2011.

The author acknowledges the immense support and cooperation provided by the various interviewees and the other Tibetan expatriates for obliging the author’s request to shed light on the current dynamics of Tibet and the Tibetan Government in‐exile. Special thanks to Tenzin Chokey, General Secretary, Tibetan Youth Congress, who helped organize most of the interviews, Tenzin Dhardon(Media Officer, TWA), Tenzin Tsundue(poet and activist), PenpaTsering(Organizational Secretary, TYC), LobsangWangyal (media activist) and to Gyari Dolma, Deputy Speaker of the TGiE for recommending members of the Standing Committee of the Tibetan Parliament to interview. Thanks are also due to Dr. LobsangSangay who despite his busy schedule during the elections took out time to share his opinions. The author is also grateful to the IPCS for supporting this endeavor and to Prof.SrikanthKondapalli for providing the leads amongst the Tibetan community.

Issue No. 2, 2010 Online URl: http://www.tibet.net/en/tibbull.php?bullart=1009& bullvolume=14&bullissue=2