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Syria: as the way forward?

05/2016 www.csm.org.pl

After ’s agreed to a ceasefire deal on the 22nd of February 2016 which seems to hold until now, questions are raised on how the country should proceed if it wants to become a unified country once again. The Alexander Grims discussion is now more important than ever as for the first

Alexander Grims, born in the time since the Syrian insurgency plummeted into in 1991, is currently in 2012, there is a chance of forming a lasting peace, finishing his double-degree master in European Governance although the fundament for this peace is still fragile. at Utrecht University and the University of Konstanz. He has a A strengthened inclusive Syrian state not only provides Bachelor in Sociology. Currently steadfastness against the Islamic State but can works as a research intern at the CIR. Alexander Grims has a special additionally improve the political structure and tackle the interest in the Middle East region, EU integration and state-level social and economic deficiencies in the region. A unified participation in EU affairs. inclusive Syrian state is therefore one of the necessary conditions for a solution to a multitude of problems, including the current refugee crisis that the European countries now face.

SYRIA: FEDERALISM AS THE WAY FORWARD?

| Alexander Grims

2 The escalation of the children’s arrests on the 18th of March, Syrian insurgency laying security forces started acting more violently and at some point opened fire, killing four the basis for civil war protesters, which led to other cities joining The escalation of the Syrian insurgency led in the revolt. Although the children were to disunity, resulting in the divergence of later released, the protests had already different social groups that opposed the spread to other cities and a speech by Presi- government and sometimes each other. The dent Assad on the 30th of March only pro- first protests that indicated the start of the voked the people further, leading to weekly "Arab Spring" erupted in Syria on the 26th anti-government demonstrations throughout of January 2011. On the 6th or March, Syria and the demand for the removal of the several Syrian security forces apprehended President. The government finally started a demonstrating children in the city of Daraa full-scale siege against protesters on the in southern Syria for writing anti- 25th of April which can be said to have laid government slogans on walls. After resi- the roots for the civil war to break out. dents found out that their boys were being President Assad attempted unsuccessfully to beaten and tortured in prison, the protests employ the same counter-insurgency stra- grew larger and people started to oppose the tegy as his father had used in earlier upri- Ba’athist government of President Assad. sings in the later decades of the 20th cen- Although there had been different uprisings tury. Only the most trusted military units in Syria before like that of the Druze people were deployed and pro-regime militias were in 2000 and a Kurdish rebellion in 2004, the raised to drive the insurgents out of the "Arab Spring" proved to be a contagious major urban areas use force to quench the chain of events that gave people hope for uprising. The fact Assad had to rely on 1 change . After protests erupted against the those kinds of tactics to limit the chances of defection immediately shows that Syrian support has not been stable from the start. 1 Sterling, J. (2012, March 1). Daraa: The spark Politically reliable special forces were care- that lit the Syrian flame. CNN. Retrieved from fully selected to pair with conventional http://edition.cnn.com/2012/03/01/world/meas t/syria-crisis-beginnings/index.html. forces and various security agencies were

SYRIA: FEDERALISM AS THE WAY FORWARD?

| Alexander Grims

3 used to identify and replace questionable The divergence of Syria’s military commanders2. people leads to fragmenta- After the Syrian army brought in tanks in tion into different political April 2011 to lay siege to Daraa, hundreds groups of people were killed and civilians were cut off from basic necessities, telephones and From the end of 2011, many electricity for two weeks. When these groups were established under which many methods were also applied in other cities, moderate or apolitical groups but also the opponents to the regime started to or- Islamist groups such as Ahrar ash-Sham, al- ganize themselves into armed brigades3. In Tawhid and Jaysh al-Islam and additionally July of that year, Assad’s army started to those that have produced IS fighters such as defect and a part of the army announced the Jabhat al-Nusra. Although there are defi- formation of the , a coali- nitely sectarian lines in the conflict, many tion of locally based militias without much opposition groups and other parties have coordination. Additionally, the Syrian Na- seen various ethnic and religious groups tional Council was established in as within their organization. For convenience it the government-in-, recognized by the is possible to divide the parties to the con- , Turkey and the Gulf Coo- flict over four comprehensible categories, peration Council but having little legitimacy the governmental forces and its supporters, within Syria. the opposition parties against the Assad regime that can be both moderate or more extreme, the Kurdish people in the north and finally the Islamic State. To understand

how those different groups fit into these

2 Holliday, J. (2013). The Assad Regime: From categories and in the context of the Syrian Counterinsurgency to Civil War. Middle East conflict, it is convenient to do a small Security Report 8. Washington, D.C.: Institute for chronological process analysis. the Study of War. 3 Laub, Z. (2016, March 18). Syria’s War: The Descent into Horror. Council on Foreign Rela- tions. Retrieved from http://www.cfr.org/ syria/syrian-civil-war-five-years/p37668#!/.

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4 From Al-Qaeda in Iraq to would remain a controversial issue for Al-Nusra in Syria AQI’s members for some time4. In its wake, the sectarian war caused many unwanted As the origins of the Islamic State go a violence and casualties. Sunni tribal leaders while back, it makes sense to start here. that had often positions in the Iraqi While the group officially only adopted this army reacted to this extremism by establi- name in the summer of 2014, its roots lay shing a U.S. funded counter-rebellion called much earlier within the sphere of al-Qaeda the Awakening. This group however started in Iraq (AQI). The withdrawal of U.S. combatting al-Qaeda in general, overloo- forces after the war left the country with a king warnings about the less known ISI sectarian insurgency between a 20% Sunni supporters. While ISI only slumbered at this minority opposing the 80% majority of time, the Sunni rage kept it alive long Shiites and Kurds. A discriminatory policy enough until it gained more support after by Iraq’s Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al- Shia Prime Minister Maliki’s 2010 "re- Maliki left the Sunnis disillusioned and " which was supported by the distrusting their government. Already in United States. From this point onwards, ISI 2004, a former al-Qaeda recruit named Abu waged a ruthless war, with the Shia popula- Musab al-Zarqawi discussed the idea of tion being the main goal of its attacks but creating an Islamic caliphate to which both also assassinating many Sunni tribal leaders al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden objected for from the Awakening movement, killing it being too premature. Additionally 1345 of its members between 2009 and Zarqawi was claimed to be too radical and 2013 while documenting and publishing violent, killing many Shiites and deterring videos of these acts online. The Shiites and moderate Sunni Muslims. the officials in both Baghdad and Washing- After U.S. airstrikes killed Zarqawi in June 2006, his followers declared in October that 4 year that AQI would from now on go on as Mahnaimi, U. (2007, May 13). Al-Qaeda plan- ning militant Islamic state within Iraq. The Sun- the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), although this day Times. Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20110524071632/ http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ iraq/article1782088.ece.

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ton seemed to be looking the other way. As Syrian Alawites and Shiites in general, the domestic conflict continued, Abu Bakr turning the largely secular civil war into a al-Baghdadi had become leader of AQI on partly sectarian conflict. Baghdadi’s troops 16 May 2011 and had, to a large extent, would organize themselves into Jabhat al- transformed it into a local operation, now Nusra in January 2012, recruiting fighters officially rebranding it into the Islamic State and establishing cells throughout the coun- of Iraq (ISI), giving it more legitimacy try and growing rapidly into a capable under the general Sunni population5. After fighting force6. parts of the former Iraqi military joined its ranks, forming ISI into more of a conven- The regime’s continuous tional army, attacks were increasingly dominant position aimed at government- and army institutions. During the first quarter of 2012, the Assad As Syria had been struck by its own civil regime started focusing its forces mainly on war that involved an opposition that was provincial capitals to control the urban largely disorganized within a society with a population centres. This strategy resulted in large sectarian division, the opposition was Assad’s inability to control the whole coun- susceptible to so-called "proto-jihadist" try or end the insurgency but increased his influences. When al-Baghdadi started sen- chances of continuing the fight and holding ding his troops into Syria in August 2011 to ground. It can also be said that this strategy fight Assad’s predominantly Alawite led has led to Assad securing his place in a army (that in his view disfavoured Sunnis), prolonged conflict and having a good this susceptibility led to many opposition chance to stay there after possible peace members joining Baghdadi’s fight against negotiations. This is evidenced by the fact

5 Ghosh, B. (2014, August 14). ISIS: A Short His- tory: The terrorist group's evolution from fervid 6 Abouzeid, R. (2014, June 23). The Jihad Next fantasy to death cult. The Atlantic. Retrieved Door: The Syrian roots of Iraq's newest civil war. from Politico. Retrieved from http://www.theatlantic.com/international/ http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/ archive/2014/08/isis-a-short-history/376030/ 06/al-qaeda-iraq-syria- ? single_page=true. 108214_full.html#.VxENxPmLSUk.

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that even now in 2016, Assad still controls regime paramilitaries such as the Shabiha large pieces of territory within Syria, is and the Popular Committees have become backed by a reasonable part of the popula- an integral part of Assad’s forces and they tion, has support from a recognizable por- began performing the same tasks and man- tion of what is left of the Syrian Army and ning the same checkpoints. They consist its militias and has a strong position at the mostly of Alawite groups, however pro- negotiating table in Geneva. Assad used the Assad Sunni tribes have also contributed. tactic of trying to separate the general popu- While not all of the Alawite communities lation from the insurgents through massive support Assad and while the religious lea- shelling of parts of cities and using airstrikes ders of the sect have officially proclaimed to to create massive displacement movements be independent of the regime, the sectarian and depopulate the rebel-held areas. Spe- divide is pushing people into simplified cifically this strategy within the conflict has sectary groups out of fear that opposing caused the displacement of more than 50% religious groups will ultimately not recon- of the Syrian population (over 10 million cile with them Assad would be gone from people) and a death toll of over 250.000 Syria’s political platform. people7. Pro-regime militias, supported by the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite Syria’s opposition struggles militias have helped with this and there have between secular, moderate been various UN reports of predominantly and extremist groups Sunni villages that have been ethnically cleansed, seen as both cause and effect of From July 2012 onwards, ill-discipline and sectarian polarization 8 . Over time, pro- infighting weakened the opposition Free Syrian Army and the general population lost their trust in them. In the meantime, ji- 7 Amnesty International. (2016, February 3). Syria's refugee crisis in numbers. Retrieved from hadists rose from within the ranks and https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/ additionally started coming from foreign 02/syrias-refugee-crisis-in-numbers/. countries, entering Syria through Iraq and 8 Holliday, J. (2013). The Assad Regime: From Counterinsurgency to Civil War. Middle East Turkey to fight in the conflict. It can be said Security Report 8. Washington, D.C.: Institute for that the emergence of extremism was in part the Study of War. caused by Assad himself as evidence shows that his regime released hundreds of Islamist

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militants as a political strategy to bring the cal Sarin gas between March and August rebellion into discredit for the outside 2013. The gravest allegations were made on world9 . At this point, the country was in the infamous chemical attack in Ghouta on disarray and provided a hospitable atmos- 21 August where up to 1.700 people would phere for extremist groups such as Al-Nusra have died. It was nevertheless not proven to establish itself firmly. that the government was responsible in this case although there is evidence for its use of In November 2012, the Syrian National the weapons in other cases. It must be said Council (the Turkey-based government-in- that the opposition parties have also been exile) transformed into the National Coali- accused by the U.N. of using chemical tion for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposi- weapons however10. After the Organisation tion Forces (also known as the National for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Syrian Coalition), allowing direct represen- (OPCW) destroyed the weapons and the tation of rebels from Syria, including the facilities under a U.N. mandate negotiated Free Syrian Army and the Kurdish groups by the U.S. and end 2013, interna- in the north, into a . It tional intervention by U.N. Member States was rejected by the more extreme Islamist was avoided. For a long time, Russia has groups and also by Russia, , Iraq and kept the U.N. from interfering in the conflict Lebanon but seen by the majority of the through these kinds of deals and veto’s, international community as the sole legiti- presumably for their own strategic interests mate representative of the Syrian people. in the country. As Assad tried to discourage the opposition of fighting and organizing further, various reports were made of his use of the chemi-

9 Salloum, R. (2013, October 10). From Jail to 10 McElroy, D. (2013, May 6). UN accuses Syrian Jihad: Former Prisoners Fight in Syrian Insur- rebels of chemical weapons use. The Telegraph. gency. Spiegel Online. Retrieved from Retrieved from http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/form http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ er-prisoners-fight-in-syrian-insurgency-a- middleeast/syria/10039672/UN-accuses-Syrian- 927158.html. rebels-of-chemical-weapons-use.html.

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8 The formation of Islamic when Al-Nusra finally split, with some State through extremism in members pledging allegiance to ISIS, hereby letting the organization firmly set Syria foot in Syria12. Al-Qaeda had at this point In March 2013, Al-Nusra had taken over the severed ties with ISIS as it strongly objected Syrian city of Raqqa in the north-east as the against the targeting of the local Sunni first provincial capital to fall under rebel population and the fact that ISIS did not control. Some analysis claim that Assad had share Al-Qaeda’s goal of uniting all Mus- allowed this because he needed to show the lims. The ease with which ISIS had estab- importance of his own regime to tackle lished itself in Syria is furthermore induced Muslim extremism11. On the 8th of April, by the inconsiderate foreign policies of the ISI leader Al-Baghdadi claimed in an audio surrounding countries. Analysts for instance statement that Al-Nusra had been an exten- indicate that Turkey’s southern border sion of ISI for a long time and that the two checks were for a long time not substantive groups would hereby merge into the new enough, leading to a large influx of extre- Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) mist Islamists fighters from the region and with the ambition to cover the whole his- also from Western countries. Additionally, toric area of "Greater Syria". A problem regional disputes between and the Gulf was that Al-Nusra’s focus was more on states had led to a proxy war within Syria fighting the Assad government while ISIS where Iran had send Shiite Lebanese Hez- wanted mainly to establish its Islamic State. bollah fighters to help Assad’s government Aided by the disapproval of Al-Qaeda, against Sunni militias funded by Saudi these differences in goals led to a power Arabia and Qatar. These kinds of sectarian struggle that would last until June 2014 divides have proven to be a breeding ground

12 Abouzeid, R. (2014, June 23). The Jihad Next 11 Ignatius, D. (2015, October 29). How ISIS Door: The Syrian roots of Iraq's newest civil war. Spread in the Middle East: And how to stop it. Politico. Retrieved from The Atlantic. Retrieved from http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/ http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archiv 06/al-qaeda-iraq-syria- e/2015/10/how-isis-started-syria-iraq/412042/. 108214_full.html#.VxENxPmLSUk.

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for extremism and were utilized for recrui- established from parts of the Free Syrian ting by both Al-Nusra and ISIS. Finally on Army, operating as a well-organized mo- the 29th of June 2014, the so called cali- derate Islamist rebel group which controls phate was proclaimed by Al-Baghdadi as a over 70% of command rooms in southern theocratic state for all Muslims in the world Syria and is funded by the West. In the (that happened to be extremely religious, north, the so called Syrian Revolutionary specifically Sunni and did not shun violent Command Council was established in Au- executions and torture) with himself as the gust 2014 as a military organisation from "caliph", branding it the "Islamic State" (IS). remnants of the Free Syrian Army there and The persistent violent conquest that IS has the Islamic Front (consisting of several unleashed upon its victims in both Syria and Islamist groups since 2013; changed into Iraq as well as the extreme theocratic op- Levant Front in December 2014). The pression of its own people, has led to the Syrian Revolutionary Command Council establishment of the international coalition consists of 72 factions and uses regional of the Combined Joint Task Force in Octo- fronts led by councils to control their territo- ber 2014, under which many Western coun- ries. The group did not include the Al- tries as well as Turkey, , Saudi Ara- Qaeda allied Al-Nusra, the moderate (secu- bia and the United Arab Emirates partici- lar) Syria Revolutionaries Front coalition pate in airstrikes against IS. and the Syrian Kurds. By the inclusion of certain extremist groups such as Islamic The opposition tries to Front, it has excluded itself from support organise itself into a from the West, nevertheless keeping the realistic political front opportunities for funding from the Gulf States that already supported the Islamic While the opposition groups have had trou- Front13 . Another opposition faction based ble organizing over the span of the conflict, with many opposition groups allying them- 13 selves back and forth between more mode- Masi, A. (2014, December 5). Syria's New Super-Opposition Coalition Unites Moderates, rate or more extremist groups, from 2014 Islamists -- And Leaves US With Limited Allies. onwards there are increasingly indications International Business Times. Retrieved from http://www.ibtimes.com/syrias-new-super- of a more unitary approach. In the begin- ning of 2014, The Southern Front was

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mostly in the north that is worth mentioning from Kobani and regain control of the city. here is the Army of Conquest that was The coalition of the Kurdish-led Syrian formed in March 2015 as a military plat- Democratic Forces, consisting of a multi- form for the more extremist rebel groups tude of regional ethnic groups, aims to and is supported by , Qatar and create a democratic confederate Syria from Turkey. It is directly connected to Al-Qaeda the perspective of their Rojava . and does not denounce IS although from This however also means that they pre- 2016 onwards, multiple groups such as Al- dominantly protect their own region of Nusra have left it due to Islamic law inter- "Western Kurdistan" without fighting far pretations being to moderate. beyond that. An additional complication in alliances with the Kurds is the fact that The Syrian Kurds get more Turkey considers at least the YPG as asso- involved in the conflict ciates of the Turkey-based Kurdistan Wor- kers’ Party, seen by both Turkey and its When IS pressed onwards and laid siege to NATO ally, the U.S., as a terrorist organiza- the Kurdish city of Kobani in the fall of tion. The Syrian Democratic Forces how- 2014, this was the first point where the ever seem to be effective in their control of Kurdish people gained international atten- the region and enjoy large support under the tion. The so called Kurds’ People’s Protec- population. On 10 December 2015, they tion Units (YPG) proved to be highly effec- established the Syrian Democratic Council tive in their fight against IS as the main (a.k.a. Council for Democratic Syria), de- armed service of the Kurdish Supreme claring Rojava an autonomous zone in Syria Committee which is the government of their and working towards implementing a fe- self-proclaimed province of Rojava (Wes- deral system in the country. The Syrian tern Kurdistan) encompassing the northern Democratic Council will consist of thirteen three provinces of Syria. With support from members from the Democratic Autonomous the U.S. it managed to expel the IS fighters Administrations in northern Syria and addi- tionally twenty members from various

opposition-coalition-unites-moderates-islamists- leaves-us-limited-1735154.

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religious or ethnic minorities and important Libya with the ousting of its dictator Colo- social groups14. nel Gaddafi15 and should therefore not be an option. In September 2015 however, Russia The interplay of external deployed its troops to Syria to fight the major powers during the extremist groups in the country under the struggle for peace pretext of targeting IS while in reality at- tacking many opposition groups that were As has been made clear in the earlier parts seen as moderate and legitimate insurgents. of this analysis, outside forces have played a The six month Russian campaign in the large role in the conflict. As the government country until March 2016 has provided army was weakening over time, it has relied Assad’s government with the necessary on the backing of countries such as Iran and support to again have a realistic chance of Lebanon with their interest in a Shiite vic- holding its ground and thereby securing tory while the opposition has received sup- Russian interests in the Syria. port from Sunni countries and the Com- After safeguarding its own interest and bined Joint Task Force which also helped gaining the image of protecting the Middle out the Kurdish forces. An actor with a East, Russia now tried together with the US major interest in a stable Syria under Ba'ath to invoke a peace process to regain stability rule is Russia with its military assets in the in the country. Above all else, it can at least country. President Putin has from the begin- be said that it is a major come-through that ning of the conflict provided President both Western and Russian interests of sta- Assad with much needed diplomatic sup- bility are now more aligned and that this port and has withhold international interven- collective effort realistically strengthens the tion for a long time under the argument that potential for peace to succeed. This most interference went horribly wrong before in recent peace initiation, under the name of

14 Ekurd Daily. (2015, December 10). Kurdish- 15 Malloy, A. (2016, April 11). Obama admits Arab coalition in Syria creates political wing. worst mistake of his presidency. CNN. Retrieved Retrieved from http://ekurd.net/syria-kurd-arab- from http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/10/ poli- political-wing-2015-12-10. tics/obama-libya-biggest-mistake/.

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Geneva 3, followed a series of failed ones Finally on 23 October 2015, the until thus throughout the 5-year civil war. Opportuni- far most successful Peace Talks ties that stood out throughout these five started that included 20 countries part of the years were for starters a failed Arab League International Syria Support Group (ISSG) plan in the end of 2011 after which the Arab under which the U.S., Russia, Iran, Saudi League called for international pressure. In Arabia, Turkey, China and various Euro- the beginning of 2012, Russia tried to force pean countries. On the 14th November of talks between the Syrian government and 2015, the efforts of the ISSG resulted in a the opposition which was then the Syrian peace plan that would be framed within a National Council (the Turkey-based go- UN resolution. Within the frame of these vernment in exile). Both option failed talks, a meeting in Saudi Arabia on the 12 mainly due to the opposition not wanting to of December led to the opposition groups allow President Assad within either the talks allying themselves as the High Negotiation or within a broader peace plan. Later in Committee. While the group did not include 2012, the Friends of Syria group was estab- the Syrian Kurds 16 and some moderate lished which involved countries from the opposition groups and was not acknow- Middle East, the West and furthermore the ledged by Russia, it would represent the new National Syrian Coalition that included general opposition within peace talks from the Kurdish groups. Veto’s within the UN now on. For the first time however since the security council by both Russia and China start of the civil war, the UN had now over- however obstructed any real solution to be come the difficulties within the international made. In June 2012, the Geneva 1 confe- debate and on the 18th of December unani- rence was first initiated and there was an mously passed a resolution for a peace plan agreement within the UN Security Council on the formation of a transitional govern-

ment body in Syria with full executive 16 At the same time however as mentioned powers until new . The problem earlier, the predominantly Kurdish Syrian De- here was however that there was no agree- mocratic Council was established in the upper north of Syria on the 10th of December, provi- ment on the role of President Assad within ding a Kurdish political platform as well. This this body. The same problem arose during platform has up until now not been invited to any of the peace talks. Geneva 2 which lasted from 22 until 31 January 2014 without significant results.

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with a timetable for formal talks. All mem- PKK, to which Turkey obviously objects as bers of the ISSG agreed on the need to they are listed as a terrorist organization. destroy the extremist Islamic State and While many Western powers strongly ob- furthermore that other terrorist groups such ject against the Kurdish exclusion, they as Al-Nusra would be excluded from any need Turkey to get other opposition groups cease-fire. to the table. At the same time, various oppo- sition groups within Syria are opposed to On 29 January 2016, the official Geneva 3 the Syrian Democratic Council as they view UN peace conference started in Switzerland them as being too much on the side of the and after some struggles between the go- Syrian government and that they should not vernment and the High Negotiation Com- represent the full Kurdish population. While mittee agreed on the 22nd of February on a there are other independent Kurdish dissi- ceasefire deal by all parties excluding the dents within the High Negotiations Council, extremist Al-Nusra front and Islamic State. the exclusion of such a large force from The agreement took effect on the 27th of northern Syria limits the chances of success February and both Russia and the US would and a stable Syria17. While the United Na- be direct monitors of the cessation of hostili- tions and Arab League Envoy to Syria, ties within a co-chaired hotline with the Staffan de Mistura has tried to get indivi- power to block parties from the agreement if dual Kurds and other member of the Syrian they would violate it. President Putin finally Democratic Council to the negotiations as officially withdrew the majority of Russian independent advisors and consultants, even forces in Syria on the 15th of March al- these efforts were mostly blocked by the though some forces would stay behind. High Negotiations Council. While it would seem natural concerning they not only represent 15% of the Syrian population but are also the most dominant military force in northern Syria, the Kurdish 17 people and many other ethnic groups in Lund, A. (2016, January 29). The Road to Geneva: the Who, When, and How of Syria’s northern Syria are not included in the peace Peace Talks. Carnegie. Retrieved from talks. The main reason for this would be that http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/ ?fa=62631. their Syrian Democratic Council would have links to the Kurdish Turkey-based

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14 Conflicting visions on a unlikely and not supported by most parties future for Syria within the Geneva 3 peace talks, the ’s bargaining hand has definitely From the peace talks onwards it increa- weakened on the battlefield after Russia’s singly becomes clear that there is a major interference and ongoing fights with Al- cleavage between the parties within the Nusra and IS. conflict. Within Geneva 3, the Syrian go- The High Negotiation Committee finds vernment delegation is led by Bashar al- itself therefore in a tough position19 . The Jaafari, chief negotiator and Syrian ambas- High Negotiation Committee ultimately sador to the U.N. The Syrian government of aims for the ouster of President Assad after course has its own plan which would have him having committed war crimes against President Assad stay in place. Parallel to the its people. There are however some diffe- peace talks, the President hold "sham" par- rences in demand within the High Negotia- liamentary elections in April to pose as if he tions Committee between the Syrian Na- was not the main decision-maker but de- tional Coalition, the Southern front and the mocratically shared power. Interesting here more extreme members such as Ahrar ash- is the fact that the recent elections in Syria18 Sham. The Southern front mostly differs resulted in many different ethnicities and from the Northern opposition on matters religions gaining seats within the Parlia- concerning the state institutions in the sense ment. While some would claim this as being that the north for instance wants a legitimate democratic, one must also notice that 200 multi-party in place while the south aims for out of the available 250 seats went to mem- a return to the 1950 until a bers of the Ba’ath party or its allies. While referendum will let the people decide on the idea of the political situation of Syria returning to its pre-civil war state is highly

19 Wintour, P. (2016, March 14). UN's Syria envoy warns of attempts to derail peace talks. The 18 Elections were only held in government con- Guardian. Retrieved from trolled areas and were therefore not recognized http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/ by most other countries for being illegitimate an 14/uns-syria-envoy-derail-peace-talks-geneva- unrepresentative of the Syrian people. staffan-de-mistura.

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Syria’s future. The Islamist members how- that their region of Rojava, consisting of ever want an Islamic state20 unified under three Kurdish cantons in northern Syria, Sharia law that allows for political parties so would from now on form a unified federal long as they are bound by the strictures of province. The PYD is not lobbying for an sharia 21 . The difficulty here is that the only-Kurdish region but rather wants many Islamist members of the opposition are different ethnic and religious groups to be scattered across Syria and a federal option is represented in loose provinces within Ro- therefore still a troublesome solution. Some java and aims to extend this to a federal analysts have called for supporting the Syrian system. The move has clearly indi- opposition groups that favor a unified, cated that Syria’s Kurds want some level of independent, and sovereign Syrian state autonomy and separation in any post-war based on a municipal political system, while scenario 22 . According to some Kurdish marginalizing those that desire the creation leaders, this would be the best solution to an Islamic state based on Salafi principles. protect the country from being divided up This option would however only create new due to major distrust between different chaos in a country that would then still be sides. While the Syrian regime logically recovering from its civil war. opposes the establishment of the autono- mous province and is thus far against the The Kurdish perspective on a post-civil war creation of a federal Syrian system, Russia Syria is interesting. After not being included has suggested that a federalized state could in the Geneva 3 peace talks, the Kurdish be a legitimate option for Syria’s future and Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its the U.S. State Department claims it would allies declared on the 16th of March 2016 have to be established through the Geneva 3 peace talks.

20 Not to be confused with the ‘Islamic State’ that sprung from ISIS. 21 Casagrande, G. and Cafarella, J. (2015, Decem- ber 29). The Syrian Opposition’s Political De- 22 Said, R. (2016, March 17). Syria's Kurds re- mands. Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved buked for seeking autonomous region. . from Retrieved from http://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/syri http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast- an-opposition%E2%80%99s-political-demands. crisis-syria-federalism-idUSKCN0WJ1EP.

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While many Arab states are rather unitary so that there people have a fair chance of and have centralized systems, the Syrian electing their regional leaders but there case proves difficult with so many different should be room for provincial laws that can factions and opinions on governance. Right differ between states. These kinds of sys- now when the country seems to be falling tems can for instance be found in the U.S. apart into different sections and a partitio- and may work for people that consider ning into independent states is not far away, themselves to be part of a larger nation a decentralized government seems not to be while favoring their own way ruling of so unrealistic. While both the current Syrian certain issues. I realize that this still leaves government and the opposition under the the issue of the assembly of the greater High Negotiations Council seem to be Syrian government to be decided on, inclu- against, the map in Figure 1 clearly portrays ding the matter of President Assad. How- the divide of the country. While the Islamic ever, it may provide a solution to at least State still occupies large parts of its terri- part of the issue and it can lead to the estab- tory, it can be seen that various regions lishment of some kind of senate that repre- within Syria are divided by certain lines. It sents each of the provinces and therefore should be taken into account that these has more legitimacy on the greater Syrian regions have views on Syria that range from political level. In my opinion, if we do not Islamist governance to democratic multi- want to let Syria be governed by totalitarian party systems, from unitary provinces to leadership and if we do not want to let federal ones that opt for autonomous go- certain minorities be left behind without a vernance and that there is even a divide say but rather opt for everybody’s involve- between the northern and southern opposi- ment, federalism system is the way forward. tion forces in their approach of institutional

change. A federal system that administers certain conditions, guidelines and a general Alexander Grims constitution could therefore be the most conceivable option for Syria to stay intact while keeping other political issues op to the people to decide. Of course there has to be a guarantee within the individual provinces that democratic voting systems are in place

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Figure 1: Military situation in the as of April 4, 2016.

Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Syrian_civil_war.png.

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