Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2010 Final Report September 2011 European Commission Annual276572 Analyses of1 the D Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market - Final EU Air Transport Market30 September 2011 2010 Final Report September 2011 European Commission Disclaimer and copyright: This report has been carried out for the Directorate General for Mobility and Transport in the European Commission and expresses the opinion of the organisation undertaking the contract MOVE/E1/5-2010/SI2.579402. These views have not been adopted or in any way approved by the European Commission and should not be relied upon as a statement of the European Commission's or the Mobility and Energy DG's views. The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the information given in the report, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof. Copyright in this report is held by the European Communities. Persons wishing to use the contents of this report (in whole or in part) for purposes other than their personal use are invited to submit a written request to the following address: European Commission - DG MOVE - Library (DM28, 0/36) - B-1049 Brussels e-mail (http://ec.europa.eu/transport/contact/index_en.htm) Mott MacDonald, Mott MacDonald House, 8-10 Sydenham Road, Croydon CR0 2EE, United Kingdom T +44(0) 20 8774 2000 F +44 (0) 20 8681 5706, W www.mottmac.com Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2010 Issue and revision record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description A 31 March 2011 A. Knight C. Collins A. du Boulay Draft Final Report B 15 June 2011 A. Knight C. Collins A. du Boulay Draft Final Report v2 C 30 June 2011 A. Knight C. Collins A. du Boulay Final Report D 30 Sept. 2011 A. Knight C. Collins A. du Boulay Final Report Update This document is issued for the party which commissioned it We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned document being relied upon by any other party, or being used project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission which used for any other purpose. is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties. This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it. Mott MacDonald, Mott MacDonald House, 8-10 Sydenham Road, Croydon CR0 2EE, United Kingdom T +44(0) 20 8774 2000 F +44 (0) 20 8681 5706, W www.mottmac.com Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2010 Content Chapter Title Page Introduction i Executive Summary iii 1. Air Traffic Trends 1 1.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________ 1 1.2 Overview of 2010 ____________________________________________________________________ 1 1.3 Air Traffic Demand Drivers_____________________________________________________________ 6 1.4 Air Passenger Traffic Growth in 2010 ___________________________________________________ 14 1.5 Airline Passenger Traffic _____________________________________________________________ 30 1.6 Air Cargo Traffic Growth _____________________________________________________________ 40 1.7 Business Aviation___________________________________________________________________ 44 1.8 The Value of the Aviation Industry ______________________________________________________ 48 2. Air Transport Forecasts 50 2.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 50 2.2 GDP – The Primary Forecast Driver ____________________________________________________ 50 2.3 IATA Short Term Forecast ____________________________________________________________ 53 2.4 Long Term Airline Passenger Forecasts _________________________________________________ 53 2.5 EUROCONTROL Flight Movement Forecasts_____________________________________________ 59 2.6 World Air Cargo Forecast ____________________________________________________________ 64 3. Airlines 69 3.1 Overview _________________________________________________________________________ 69 3.2 Airline Financial Performance _________________________________________________________ 71 3.3 Legacy Carriers ____________________________________________________________________ 80 3.4 Regional Airlines ___________________________________________________________________ 92 3.5 Low Cost Carriers __________________________________________________________________ 97 3.6 Charter Airlines ___________________________________________________________________ 105 3.7 Cargo Airlines_____________________________________________________________________ 107 4. Airports 115 4.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 115 4.2 Airport Traffic & Developments in 2010 _________________________________________________ 115 4.3 Airport Capacity Issues _____________________________________________________________ 127 4.4 Airport Charges Regulation __________________________________________________________ 135 4.5 Slot Allocation Issues_______________________________________________________________ 143 5. Aircraft Manufacturing & MRO 147 5.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 147 5.2 Aeronautics & Manufacturing Overview_________________________________________________ 147 5.3 The Global Aircraft Fleet in 2010 ______________________________________________________ 163 5.4 Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul (MRO) ________________________________________________ 173 276572///1/D 30 September 2011 Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market - Final Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2010 6. Air Traffic Management 184 6.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 184 6.2 Impacts of the Eyjafjallajökull Volcano__________________________________________________ 184 6.3 ATM Cost Effectiveness_____________________________________________________________ 191 6.4 SESAR & NextGen ________________________________________________________________ 198 6.5 Functional Airspace Blocks (FABs) ____________________________________________________ 203 7. The Internal Market & Competition Issues 207 7.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 207 7.2 EU Regulatory Developments ________________________________________________________ 207 7.3 Competition Issues_________________________________________________________________ 211 7.4 Air Service Agreements with Non-EU Countries __________________________________________ 215 8. Environmental Development & Sustainability 220 8.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 220 8.2 Emissions Targets _________________________________________________________________ 220 8.3 Aviation CO2 Emissions in Europe_____________________________________________________ 221 8.4 Industry Developments & Achievements ________________________________________________ 226 8.5 Developments in the United States ____________________________________________________ 237 8.6 European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) ____________________________________ 238 9. Aviation Safety & Security 239 9.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 239 9.2 2010 Safety Review ________________________________________________________________ 239 9.3 Spread of Safety Best Practice _______________________________________________________ 244 9.4 Safety - Key Focus Areas ___________________________________________________________ 249 9.5 Aviation Security __________________________________________________________________ 254 9.6 Security Regulatory Developments ____________________________________________________ 255 9.7 Regional Developments outside Europe ________________________________________________ 258 9.8 Industry Initiatives _________________________________________________________________ 261 9.9 Key Aviation Security Issues _________________________________________________________ 262 10. Consumer Issues 267 10.1 Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 267 10.2 Punctuality & Delays _______________________________________________________________ 267 10.3 Consumer Protection _______________________________________________________________ 281 Glossary 297 276572///1/D 30 September 2011 Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market - Final Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2010 Introduction Purpose of the Report Mott MacDonald has been commissioned by the Directorate General for Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE) to provide an annual analysis of the EU Air Transport Industry in 2010. The European Commission has provided such annual reports since 1998; and the Mott MacDonald contract covers the three years of 2010, 2011 and 2012. In undertaking this work, we have been specifically requested to focus on a factual analysis of how and why European air transport has evolved in relation to other global regions, seeking the factors behind changes in trends and policies as well as their consequences. Although this report is publicly available, the primary audience is DG MOVE. In this respect, the report is not intended to be just a statistical compendium or an activity report of aviation events that have happened in 2010. This knowledge is already known to the Commission. Instead, we have tried to provide ‘value-