China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China/HK Airlines Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 31 Jan 2018 Entering a Golden Age HSI: 32,607 The number of air passengers in China is forecast to nearly triple to 1.5bn by 2036, driven by a ANALYST rapidly expanding middle class and government Paul YONG, CFA +65 6682 3712
[email protected] support Domestically, an oligopolistic structure along Hong Kong Research Team with fare liberalisation will help the Big 3, i.e. Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, grow earnings faster than market Recommendation & valuation expectations Mkt Target Performance There is further upside to share prices for the Big Price Cap Price (%) 3 despite a recent rally; improving earnings HK$ US$m HK$ 3 mth 12 mth Rating should act as a catalyst for the stocks to re-rate Air China 'H' 11.26 27,567 14.4 61 105 BUY Our top pick is Air China (TP HK$14.40); we also China Southern 'H' 9.92 17,222 11.9 73 123 BUY have BUYs on China Eastern (TP HK$8.60) and China Eastern 'H' 6.9 16,933 8.6 72 78 BUY Cathay Pacific 12.26 6,167 12.8 (7) 18 HOLD China Southern (TP HK$11.90). But we have a Price used as of 30 January 2018 HOLD on Cathay Pacific (TP HK$12.80) Growth in air travel demand in China is unstoppable. With 35% of China’s population projected to be in the upper- middle-class bracket by 2030, from just 10% in 2010, air travel Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P.