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China Air Transportation 2019 Q1 Ready CHINA AIR TRANSPORTATION SECTOR 2019 Q1 An EMIS Insights Industry Report Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2019 EMIS, all rights reserved. CONTACT US www.emis.com FOLLOW US ABBREVIATIONS ASK Available Seat-Kilometers ATK Available Tonne-Kilometers AFTK Available Freight Tonne-Kilometers CAAC Civil Aviation Administration of China CATA China Air Transport Association CJV Contractual Joint Venture CRS Computer Reservation System EJV Equity Joint Venture FIE Foreign-Invested Enterprise JV Joint Venture LCC Low-Cost Carrier MOFCOM Ministry of Commerce MOT Ministry of Transport NDRC National Development and Reform Commission RPK Revenue Passenger-Kilometers RFTK Revenue Freight Tonne-Kilometers RTK Revenue Tonne-Kilometers SHE State-Holding Enterprise SOE State-Owned Enterprise Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2019 EMIS, all rights reserved. 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY p.5 Sector in Numbers Sector Overview Sector Snapshot Driving Forces Restraining Forces 02 SECTOR IN FOCUS p.12 Quarterly Update China Air Transportation Sector 2018 Q4 Quarterly Summary Sector Outlook Sector Highlights Main Sector Indicators Top M&A Deals M&A Activity 03 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE p.23 Timeline China Airlines Highlights Main Players 04 COMPANIES IN FOCUS p.27 China Southern Airlines Co Ltd Air China Ltd China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd Hainan Airlines Holding Co Ltd Shandong Airlines Co Ltd 05 REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT p.43 Government Policy Foreign Investment Policy Domestic Investment Policy CONTENTS 06 PASSENGER TRANSPORT p.49 Focus Point - Busiest Airports by Passenger Throughput Highlights Main Events Main Indicators “Big Three” Airlines Main Indicators 07 FREIGHT TRANSPORT p.55 Focus Point - Busiest Airports by Freight Throughput Highlights Main Events Main Indicators “Big Three” Airlines Main Indicators CONTENTS CHINA AIR TRANSPORTATION SECTOR 2019 Q1 An EMIS Insights Industry Report CONTENTS 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2019 EMIS, all rights reserved. 5 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS Sector in Numbers Fastest No.2 No.2 Growing Air Passenger Air Freight Market in the Market in the Air Passenger World World Market Globally 7.4mn 611.7mn 235 tonnes people Number of Civil Air Freight Air Passenger Airports Traffic Traffic 3,615 83.2% 73.2% Transport Air Passenger Air Freight Aircraft Fleet Load Factor Load Factor Data for 2018. Source: IATA, CAAC, CEIC CHINA AIR TRANSPORTATION SECTOR 2019 Q1 6 An EMIS Insights Industry Report 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS Sector Overview China’s aviation sector is of key importance to the national economy, reflecting its increasing level of modernisation and robust growth. China’s vast territory and its geographical location assign the aviation sector a role that other transport methods cannot replace in promoting international political, economic and cultural communication, and tourism. China is the world’s second-largest aviation market after the US, transporting 611.7mn air passengers in 2018, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC). Entry Modes Despite the gradual opening of China’s aviation sector to new entrants, the huge capital investments required, low profit margins and extremely high exit barriers, all make it relatively hard to enter the sector. It is still highly regulated by the Chinese government, as reforms have been slow. The sector was opened to foreign entrants in 1994, while domestic private investors were allowed to enter only in 2005. The sector is dominated by China’s “Big Three” state-holding carriers – China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China, which are strongly supported by the government. Segment Opportunities The major air carriers have been actively expanding their fleets in recent years to meet the rapidly growing market demands. To foster the sector’s growth, the Chinese government is committed to developing commercial aircraft manufacturing. In 2016 the first domestically-produced jet model – the ARJ21, made by the state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) – entered service after ten years of delay. Foreign technology and components had a significant role in its development and design – about 40% of the jet’s equipment is made by 19 foreign suppliers. Aircraft design and construction can bring opportunities for foreign partners, as China still lacks experience in high-tech aircraft equipment. There are numerous opportunities also in the area of catering and aircraft maintenance, in which experienced staff are lacking and entry barriers are relatively low. Government Policy Two major government strategies are creating conditions for further growth in the sector. The first is the Belt and Road initiative, launched in 2013 and aimed at boosting trade with former Silk Road countries. The second is the country’s plan for the development of its western provinces. The expansion of the country’s air infrastructure and the gradual liberalisation of its aviation market will support the sector’s development in the coming years. Source: CAAC, AINonline, COMAC CHINA AIR TRANSPORTATION SECTOR 2019 Q1 7 An EMIS Insights Industry Report 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS Sector Snapshot China Airlines LOAD FACTOR 83.2% 73.2% Air Passenger Air Freight PASSENGERS FREIGHT Turnover Traffic Turnover Traffic Domestic*: Domestic*: Domestic*: Domestic*: 788.9mn tonne-km 548.1bn passengers 7.6mn tonne-km 5mn passengers International: International: International: International: 282.2mn tonne-km 63.7bn passengers 18.7mn tonne-km 2.4mn passengers DOMESTIC MARKET Sales Revenue: RMB 746.1bn** Fixed Asset Investment: RMB 239.5bn** KEY PLAYERS REVENUES 1. China Southern Airlines: RMB 143.6bn 2. Air China: RMB 136.8bn 3. China Eastern Airlines: RMB 114.9bn 4. Hainan Airlines: RMB bn 5. Shandong Airlines: RMB 18.8bn Note: Data for 2018. * Including Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. ** Data for 2017. Source: CAAC, CEIC, Company Data CHINA AIR TRANSPORTATION SECTOR 2019 Q1 8 An EMIS Insights Industry Report 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS Sector Snapshot China Aviation Sector In 2018 China's economy grew at its slowest pace in 28 years, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising by 6.6%, representing a decline of 0.2 pp over 2017. As a result of the economic slowdown, the intensifying market competition in the sector, oil price fluctuations and currency devaluation, in 2018 China’s air transportation sector witnessed weaker y/y growth. Demand for air travel in China continued to expand although at a slower pace, driven by a rising middle class and increasing number of both domestic and international tourists travelling to and from China. According to the CAAC, in 2018 the total air transport turnover of the entire sector – an indicator that expresses both passengers and freight carried, measured by revenue tonne-kilometers (RTK) - reached 120.6bn tonne-km, representing a y/y increase of 11.4%. Air passenger turnover, measured by revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK), reached almost 1.1tn passenger-km, while air freight turnover, measured by revenue freight tonne-kilometers (RFTK) was 26.2bn tonne-km, representing increases of 12.6% y/y and 7.5% y/y, respectively. In 2018, China’s airlines transported a total of 611.7mn passengers, an increase of 10.9% y/y, compared with the 13% y/y increase in 2017. International air passenger traffic experienced a significant increase of 14.8% y/y to 63.7mn passengers in 2018, driven by strong growth in outbound leisure and business travel and supported by the easing of visa regulations for Chinese tourists travelling abroad. Domestic passenger traffic grew by 10.5% y/y to 548.1mn passengers, fuelled by the rising accessibility of travel and expansion of low-cost carriers (LCCs). In 2018, domestic airlines’ freight traffic reached 7.4mn tonnes, up by 4.6% y/y versus a 5.6% y/y growth in 2017. Freight traffic on domestic routes rose by 3.3% y/y to 5mn tonnes, while international freight traffic went up by 10.5% y/y to 2.4mn tonnes. During 2018 China’s airlines added 167 new international routes, including 112 with countries, which are part of the Belt and Road initiative. At the end of 2018, China had bilateral air transport agreements with a total of 126 countries. To meet the rising demand for air travel, Chinese airlines were very active in their fleet expansion. China’s “Big Three” state-controlled carriers – China Southern Airlines (CSA), China Eastern Airlines (CEA) and Air China – introduced 104, 67, and 50 aircraft, respectively. In 2018, all of the top five listed companies in terms of sales revenue (the “Big Three” plus Hainan Airlines and Shandong Airlines) witnessed positive y/y growth in revenues, however their net profits declined over 2017, due to the rising operating expenses. The “Big Three” transported 60.6% of China’s air passengers and 61.6% of air freight in 2018. In 2017, China Southern had the highest carriage domestically in terms of revenue – 73.2% of its total revenue was generated from domestic flights. CEA and Air China shared the leading position on international routes, with respective shares of 30.4% 29.2% of their revenue generated from international flights. Source: CAAC, Company Data CHINA AIR TRANSPORTATION SECTOR 2019 Q1 9 An EMIS Insights Industry Report 01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS Driving Forces China’s strong economic development, its rising middle class and the increasing disposable incomes are the main drivers of the growth of the country’s aviation industry. China is, geographically speaking, the fourth-largest country in the world, with a territory of approximately 9.6mn km2. It is also the world’s most populous country, with a population of nearly 1.4bn as of end-2018. The country’s vast territory is the reason why air transport is often the only viable option for long- distance routes across the country. The government-funded infrastructure construction boom of recent years has improved – and continues to improve – regional connectivity, and this, combined with falling air fares, is speeding up the sector’s growth.
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