SSA SWE Segment – Approach for SSA P3

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Juha Pekka Luntama Alexi Glover Stefan Kraft Ralf Keil Adriano Lupi

ESA SSA Programme Office Space Weather Segment European Space Agency

ESA SSA System 2016

SSA-SWE Users

SSA and Federated data collaborating SSA SWE archives sensor systems Coordination Centre Space Pole, Belgium

SWE Data Centre

swe.ssa.esa.int

SWE Expert Service Centres Solar Ionospheric Space Geomagnetic Heliospheric Weather Weather Radiation Conditions Weather

European expert groups and centres of excellence

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 2 European Space Agency Some Highlights in 2015

• New Products:  From SN-VI (Prime: RHEA) . RESOSS service for resource exploitation – TGO & NMA . AVIDOS 2.0: now with GLE specification – Seibersdorf Laboratories  A-EFFort flare forecast system . RCAAM Academy of Athens • P2-SWE-I Expert Service Centre Definition and Development activity [KO: 23/09/2015] • P2-SWE-II: Services for the SST domain:  Deimos Space with ISS Romania, DHConsultancy, UK Met Office, BGS, GFZ [KO: 29/10/2015] • Dedicated support campaigns for ESA missions

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 3 European Space Agency Radiation Environment ESC (R-ESC) Ionospheric Weather ESC (I-ESC) • Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy • DLR • Seibersdorf Laboratories GmbH • Norwegian Mapping Authority • Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL) • National Observatory of Athens Center for Space Radiations • Finnish Meteorological Institute • DLR Institute of Aerospace Medicine • Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia • University of Turku • Space Research Centre of the Polish Academy • University College London (UCL) of Sciences Mullard Space Science Laboratory • Technical University of Denmark • Paul Buehler • Institute of Atmospheric Physics • Institute of Atmospheric Physics • CLS Collecte Localisation Satellites • University of Oulu Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory • CSDRadConsultancy Ltd • National & Kapodistrian University of Athens Geomagnetic Conditions ESC (G-ESC) • DH Consultancy • Tromsø Geophysical Observatory • Finnish Meteorological Institute • Technical University of Denmark • SIDC - Solar Influences Data Center • Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam – GFZ • Swedish Institute for Space Physics • Polar Geophysical Institute

Solar Weather ESC (S-ESC) • Royal Observatory of Belgium Heliospheric Weather ESC (H-ESC) • Kanzelhöhe Solar Observatory • STFC RAL Space • Instituto Nazionale di Astrofisica • MetOffice • University of Applied Sciences • University of Graz North Western Switzerland • Centre de Données de la Physique des • Research Center for Astronomy Plasmas and Applied Mathematics • DH Consultancy • University of Göttingen • University of Leuven ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use SWE ESC NetworkSlide 4 2015 • TechnicalEuropean University Space of Denmark Agency SWE Network Product Growth

SWE-I pt2 + others 4xESC & SWE portal New services SWE-I pt1: Opening H- ESC New services 140 130

65 65 56 56 56 44 44 44 44 44 48 48 48 48 48 30 30

SSCC operations

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 5 European Space Agency SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre

• User Support  Helpdesk (8/5) & guidance • Dedicated support for ESA missions  GAIA, Rosetta, Venus Express  Upcoming (TBC): LISA Pathfinder & more • Service Monitoring  Overall SWE network performance . SWE Data Centre applications . Federated services • Service Improvement  Engaging with user community  Targeted campaigns  Facilitating access to new SWE services

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 6 European Space Agency Entering SSA Period 3

→ SWE Network Capability Growth

350 > 300 products specified in SSA SWE PSD 300

250

200

Products 150 140

100

0 SSA P3 SSA P4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 8 European Space Agency SSA SWE Network Goals

• Leverage European expertise in all areas of space weather to build a network of space weather services based on high-quality data, state-of- the-art modelling and scientific know-how. • Advance space weather service provision for SWE customers & stakeholders according to the SWE CRD baseline as part of a sustainable network

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 9 European Space Agency ESC Development Aims

• Continued networking and development of European SWE Assets and improving services through:

 integrating new teams and centres of excellence in the existing ESCs

 new Expert Service Centres to optimise network coordination & address areas not fully covered during Period 2

 strengthened networking (including implementation of SLAs)

 development of new products & underpinning building blocks

SWE• Expertenhancement Service of Centresexisting products

Solar Ionospheric Space Geomagnetic Heliospheric Weather Weather Radiation Conditions Weather

European expert groups and centres of excellence

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 10 European Space Agency Expert Service Centre Evolution in P3

• ESC Definition & Development will include  Measurement data import, storage and archiving  Product generation storage and archiving  Product & service benchmarking & performance assessment  Provision of expert support to products and services => ESCs will have service provision responsibility according to SLAs • Transition towards an operational SWE system

 8/5 SSCC operation plus on-call service & ESC support

 Continued close interaction with SWE service users & feed into service development

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 11 European Space Agency SWE Data Centre Evolution

• Maintenance & development of SWE Data Centre

 Evolve towards becoming a key data source supporting the SWE Service Network

 Development of enhanced data storage, browsing and retrieval functionality including required security features for data integrity

 Linking primary SWE Data Centre with federated thematic data centres

 Development of level1/2 processing chains for SWE Hosted Payload data in coordination with ESC teams

. Starting from NGRM and SOSMAG missions

. Requires data ingestion, processing, dissemination and storage

Sensors (own Measurements Products Services Users and external)

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 12 European Space Agency SWE Data Utilisation

• Critical space- & ground-based data required for services & identified within Period 2 activities will be secured through SLAs during Period 3 • Utilisation of data from European missions (PROBA-2, Swarm, MetOp,…) will continue & is foreseen to increase (MTG, MetOp-SG,…) • Agreements to be pursued ensuring availability of key data from international missions (e.g. GOES, ACE/DSCOVR, GK2A,…) • Utilise SWE Data Centre at Redu as hub for data and product search throughout the federated network.

ESA UNCLASSIFIED SSA | A GLOVER – For Official | Period Use 3 Workshop inputsSlide 13 13- European Space Agency

SWE Service Improvement in Medium/Long Term

• Known limitations in current state-of-the-art service capability: e.g. major geomagnetic storm onset forecast with >24h lead times required by power grid operators. • Focussed development: services building on physics-based models where applicable  e.g. heliospheric modelling, ionospheric scintillation  development of required models & tools utilising L5 mission data • ESC service benchmarking & validation framework provides an essential element facilitating the adoption of new developments • Regular update of SWE Service Roadmaps captures new results showing promise for future service improvement

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 14 European Space Agency → SWE Measurement Systems SWE Measurement Data Requirements

• Most Solar Weather, Space Radiation and Heliospheric Weather services are depending on data from aging scientific missions: SOHO, ACE, STEREO, SDO

• Lack of STEREO data has already impacted SSA SWE services:

 CME monitoring capability is reduced

 VEX support would not be feasible anymore

 Service capability to Rosetta is substantially limited

• Loss of space-based measurement data would dramatically reduce the availability and confidence levels of all SWE services

• Long-term planning of the SWE space segment maintenance is critical for any credible SWE service capability.

Sensors (own Measurements Products Services Users and external)

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 16 European Space Agency SSA SWE Space Segment in a nutshell

L1 satellite

Distributed SWE Sensor System (D3S)

Satellites with hosted P/L in

• LEO • MEO • GEO

Candidates: METOP L5 satellite SG, MTG, Telecom, Galileo, or dedicated Small Sats, CubeSats, etc.

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 17 European Space Agency First step towards D3S: Two advanced hosted payload developments

• Next Generation Radiation Monitor (NGRM)  ARTES 7, EDRS-C 2017

Service Oriented Spacecraft Magnetometer (SOSMAG)  Korean GEO-KOMPSAT-2A 2018

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 18 European Space Agency Next steps for D3S (P3 & P4 outlook)

Monitoring of Earth-Sun interaction (animation used for Observation D3S D3S System scaling) al points Sensors Component

Polar orbit GEO MicroSat Auroral Auroral imaging collaboration L 1-2 camera or H/P E sensor(s) O

H/P: EDRS, Multiple SOSMAG GK2A, MTG, Earth plasma & sensors & NGRM METOP-SG, ELECTRA,... energetic particle monitoring Multiple MAGIC, observation miniature SWE env. positions radiation mon. package monitor, on CubeSats, H/P, data from (Airborne, GNSS European Earth Magnetic field LEO, receivers,... missions monitoring MEO, GEO, Dosimetry Aircraft HEO) on aircrafts sensor system

Other H/P sensors where opportune (depending on flight opportunities) Development needed Operational D3S requires minimum of 12-15 sensors permanently in orbit (mostly radiation hard)

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 19 European Space Agency Enhanced Space Weather Monitoring L1/L5 missions Phase 0 Study

. Parallel studies led by OHB and Airbus started in summer . Both missions under assessment (ASEL and L5) by both industries . Mission requirements established . Observational requirements formulated and targeted services identified . P/L complement and preliminary instrument specifications derived . Mission analysis and trade-off performed . Baseline architectures established  Soyuz or Ariane 6 launcher, direct injection  double launch possible  VEGA C with S/C transfer also considered . Mission Architecture Review almost completed . Next Phase: establishment of mission design

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 20 European Space Agency

SWE in-situ observation requirements

L1 in-situ L5 in-situ Solar Wind Bulk velocity, density and temperature Velocity: 100 to 2500 (3000) km/s Density: 0.1 – 150 cm-3, T: 10.000-5.000.000 K, 5% abs accuracy Magnetic field Range: 0.1 – 200 nT Accuracy: ±1nT (±0.5 nT) Protons 1 MeV – ~500 MeV Protons > 10 MeV (optional) 3 (5) E-channels 1 - 10 MeV 5 (10) E-channels 10 MeV-500(1000)MeV, 1(2) sensors FoV 60deg half-width Electrons 30 keV to 8 MeV Electrons 30 keV to 8 MeV 8 (10) E channels, 30 keV-8 MeV 1(2) sensor(s), FoV: 60deg half-width Ions 30 keV/nuc to >1MeV/nuc Optional

4(5) energy channels, 30 keV-1 (>10) MeV/nuc, 1(2) sensor(s), p+, a, CNO+, Fe (Si/Ne, Ni, plus 1# heavy ions) FoV: 60deg half-width Solar electrons 2 to 50 MeV (optional) N/A 1 (3) energy channel(s), 2 MeV (1 MeV-50 MeV) (Goal values in brackets) FoV 60deg half-width

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 21 European Space Agency Required remote sensing observations

Sun-Earth line remote sensing L5 remote sensing Solar Disc Magnetic Fields & White Light Optional measurement Imaging Full disk, spatial resolution: 20 (10)’’, Dynamic range: ±4 kG Noise: 20 Gauss Solar Coronagraphic Images FoV: 3-20 RS (T); 3-30 RS (G) Spatial resolution: ~ 1 arcmin Solar EUV imaging Full disk Fe XII 193 A (He II 304 A, Fe IX 171 A, Fe XIV 211 A) 40x40 arcmin image centred on Sun centre; Spatial resolution: 5 (2) arcsec/pix Optional measurement Heliospheric Imager

1(2) camera, FoV: 4-30 (60) deg , with aim 4-60 deg; Spatial resolution: 1.5 arcmin/pixel (1.2 and 2.3 arcmin/pixel)

Solar X-ray flux Range: 1-8 Angstrom, 2% accuracy Solar radio-spectrographic (Optional) 150 kHz to 30 MHz (Goal values in brackets) . Generic development for both missions seems to be indicated . Improvements of existing assets are required to meet specifications . Suitability of instruments for D3S to be kept in mind (higher degree of miniaturisation required) . TRL 6 (ISO) or higher to be reached by end of 2018

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 22 European Space Agency SWE Mission Pre-Developments

• Urgent activities to enable L-mission and D3S  Heliospheric modelling techniques  to improve end-to-end modelling and to improve forecasting taking advantage of multipoint observations  Compact Magnetograph for L-mission  no or little heritage in Europe (essential development for L5 mission)  immediate start of activity required  Heliospheric Imager for L-mission  current heritage out-dated (essential for L5 mission)  Early consolidation of instrument designs essential also to identify detector development needs (usually on critical path)  All in-situ payloads need either adaptation (to be compliant) or further maturisation  Investigate potential use of Cubesat/nanosat mission concepts for operational SWE system  Radiation Monitor System in a Package and RIU • Essential medium-term developments  Elegant breadboarding of compact wide-angle coronagraph  SCOPE will end with TRL 4 (concept still to be demonstrated), but need to get to TRL end of 2019 (essential for L1 and L5 missions)  start in 2017 advisable  EUV imager breadboard (currently not in SSA TP)  ESIO expected to end at TRL 4 in 2016 but need TRL 6 end of 2019  start of follow-on activity in 2017 advisable  Solar X-ray monitor  good European heritage, but need to demonstrate readiness for the L-missions • Consolidation of instrument specifications and development needs for the L-mission on-going as part of the Phase 0 L-mission studies  expected to be completed mid of 2016

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 23 European Space Agency

Timeline SWE Space Segment

Lagrange Mission Mission selection* Prime selection Launch

MAR MDR PCR PRR ISRR SRR PDR CDR FAR

Phase 0 L1 Phase A/B1 Phase Phase C/D LEOP / Operati Phase 0 L5 B2 Transfer Instrument procurement on Pre-developments Satellite procurement Ground Segm. procurement

2016D3S 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Implementation Period 2 Pre-Developments Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Operation

System Studies Sensor Procurement STA-SWE-110 / 113/ 119 Airborne / Super L1 / Cubesat Deployment Technology Development STA-SWE-104 / 117 / 127 RIU / Auroral camera / SWE EnvMON Sustain & Improve Pack

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 24 European Space Agency SWE Ground Based Observations

Measurement Existing Assets Solar images: H-alpha, white- Solar telescopes (e.g. Kanzelhoehe Solar Observatory) light Solar Magnetogram images Solar telescopes (e.g. IAC contribution to GONG network) Solar indices: F10.7 Solar radiometer. Currently only DRAO Penticton (Canada) Solar Radio Bursts Solar radio spectrograph network (e.g. eCALLISTO network) Cosmic Ray Neutron Flux Existing neutron monitor network (e.g. http://www.nmdb.eu/) Earth surface vector magnetic Vector magnetometers in existing networks (additional stations particular in arctic field region would be needed). Global coverage through agreement (e.g. INTERMAGNET). TEC maps Existing GNSS receiver networks (e.g. IGS, EUREF) Auroral visible imaging All-sky imagers (e.g. FMI real-time auroral cameras) Ionosphere: URSI parameters Ionospheric sounders: Digisonde/ionosonde networks (e.g. DIAS network). Completion of global coverage through international cooperation agreements. Ionospheric Scintillation: S4 and Dedicated GNSS receivers for scintillation monitoring (e.g. ESA Monitor network). Sigma_Phi Deployment of further sensors should be considered. Ionospheric Electric Field Inchoherent/coherent radar network (e.g. SuperDARN and EISCAT). Current assets not suitable for continuous monitoring => EISCAT_3D Ionospheric Radio Absorption Riometer network (e.g. AAR/AIRS (Nor), IRIS (Fin), Svalbard (Nor), NORSTAR (Can)). CME detection through cosmic ray Muon telescope network (e.g. MuSTAnG). European element of the network in anisotropy prototype status and would require upgrade.

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 25 European Space Agency SWE Segment on Conclusion of Period 3

• Well-established service network having undergone extensive (pre)operational period of service provision:

 Network growth to include new European data, products and expertise

 Improved products: testing and validation, assessed against real user needs

 Further work towards targeting user needs and delivery requirements

• Development of key service building blocks, in particular enhanced modelling, supports continuous service improvement & will enable next generation of SWE services

• Reliable, high quality SWE Data from the network => new opportunities for innovation in downstream commercial service developments and further targeted scientific research

• D3S first generation pre-developments, operation of the first elements (NGRM/EDRS and SOSMAG/GK2A) in progress

• Deployment of additional D3S sensors as hosted payloads/cubesat missions in progress

• L5 mission Phase A/B1 and B2 studies completed, readiness to initiate Phase C/D Instrument pre-developments for L5 mission completed

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 26 European Space Agency THANK YOU

swe.ssa.esa.int www.esa.int

ESA UNCLASSIFIED – For Official Use Slide 27 European Space Agency