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J Kumar Infraprojects Ltd J Kumar Infraprojects Ltd. J Kumar Infra projects Ltd. (JKIL) is a Mumbai based infrastructure developer with a successful track record of completing marquee projects spread across the transportation, civil infra, irrigation and piling verticals. It has largely operated in the Northern-Western belt viz. Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat, Rajasthan and UP. As of June 2016 end, its order book stood at Rs 8,646 crore, 6.1x FY16 revenues. Of the total order book, the company has Rs 5,368 crore worth of Mumbai Metro orders bagged in July, 2016. We met with the management of JKIL, which recently was in news for its JV being barred by the BMC on account of suspected irregularities in the repair work undertaken by the sub- contractor of the JV on a particular stretch of road in the Bandra- Dahisar route. Investors turned jittery on speculation that the MMRDA may also backlist the company leading to withdrawal of the Metro order, which the company had recently won. Consequently, the stock slumped from Rs 222 in July 2016 making a low of Rs 106 in August 2016. However, in September 2016, the MMRDA received a green signal from the Advocate General (AG) to appoint contractors blacklisted by BMC since a single authority alone cannot completely de- bar a contractor from all infrastructure related activities. With the over-hang of the blacklisting out of sight, the stock recovered to Rs. 228 by October, 2016. We believe there is a further upside to the stock given its robust order book, high revenue visibility, consistent EBITDA margins in the range of 15-16% and debt-equity below 1x despite the execution of a lumpy order book. The urbanization spending prospects adds more optimism to the growth story. We have assigned a PE of 12x to JKIL’s estimated FY19 EPS to arrive at a target price of Rs 326, indicating an upside of 58% from the CMP of Rs 206. JKIL has a healthy order backlog of 6.1X FY16 sales leading to robust revenue growth: JKIL which typically bagged orders worth Rs 1,500-1,700 crore on an annual basis has received a shot in the arm after it won the Rs 5,368 crore worth Mumbai Metro order (Andheri East-Dahisar East) stretch. Post which, JKIL’s order book has jumped from Rs. 3,214 crore as of March 2016 to Rs 8,645 crore as of June-2016. Further it is L1 bidder for metro orders worth Rs 1,350 crore. This company is expected to receive the order in the immediate future. The metro order book has a five-year completion time line, while the remaining order book has a 2.5-3 year’s completion time frame. Strong revenue growth on the cards: Based on the above order, we expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 29% to Rs. 3,052 crore by FY19 (from Rs.1,409 crore clocked in FY16). Project wise revenue booking Revenue Booking Value of Order Execution (%) Contract unfinished Work (Rs. in Cr) Name of the Project value work completion FY17 FY18 FY19 FY17 FY18 FY19 (%) Q1FY17 (Rs. in Cr) (Rs. in Cr) Q1FY17 Civil Construction Construction of Dr. Ram Manohar Lohia Rajya Prashasan Evem Prabandhan Academy- 260 260 0 25 55 85 65 78 78 Lucknow. Lower Wardha Mail Canal on Wardha River 93 84 9 25 40 70 15 14 28 Construction of Earthwork and Structures and Box 8 0 95 100 0 0 0 0 0 culvert of Bembla Main Canal. Construction of Earthwork and Structures of 7 1 89 100 0 0 1 0 0 Ramtirth Distributory of Bembla Main Canal. Piling Work 21 14 35 85 100 0 11 3 0 Transportation Engineering Construction of ROB at Jogeshwari 298 57 81 100 0 0 57 0 0 Construction of Flyover at Kapurwadi Junction- 189 6 97 100 0 0 6 0 0 Thane Construction of New Creek Bridge between Thane- 184 162 12 45 95 100 61 92 9 Kalwa Construction of Flyovers at Savita Chemical 156 80 49 85 100 100 56 23 0 Junction-Ghansoli Construction of Elevated Connector B/w BKC 'G' Block & Eastern Express Highway, including 156 105 33 65 95 100 50 47 8 ROB at Level crossing near Chunabhatti Railway Station Construction of Flyover at KSB Chowk 109 53 52 85 100 0 36 16 0 Construction of Flyovers at Meenatai Thakare Chowk,Almeida Chowk and Sant Namdev Chowk 77 71 8 35 65 100 21 23 27 Construction of Pre-cast Arch Bridges at 75 75 0 25 50 90 19 19 30 Dronagiri, Navi Mumbai. Construction of Flyover From College of 68 2 97 100 0 0 2 0 0 Engineering Pune to Patil Estate Construction of Milan ROB Santacruz 42 5 88 100 0 0 5 0 0 Construction of Bridge Over Mulla River-Pune 31 15 53 85 100 0 10 5 0 Construction of FOB on Ghodbunder Road at 18 17 2 35 60 95 6 4 6 various locations Construction of Six Lane Bridge across Ulhas 136 136 0 20 50 85 27 41 48 creek Construction of Grade Separator at Junction- 101 101 0 20 50 80 20 30 30 Andheri Concreting of various roads in Western Suburbs 205 62 70 100 0 0 62 0 0 Roads in Cement Concrete in Western Suburbs. 194 149 23 65 90 100 81 48 19 Source: JKIL ,Ventura Research Project wise revenue booking Revenue Booking Value of Order Execution (%) Contract unfinished Work (Rs. in Cr) Name of the Project value work completion FY17 FY18 FY19 FY17 FY18 FY19 (Rs. in Cr) (Rs. in Cr) (%) Q1FY17 Q1FY17 Widening and improvement of Ambadi- Washind 111 65 41 75 95 100 38 22 6 road Minor Roads in 'P" ward in asphalt/Paver Block 80 1 98 100 0 0 1 0 0 Side Strips of Linking Road in Mastic Asphalt in 77 16 79 100 0 0 16 0 0 Western Suburbs Road in Asphalt in RIC & RIN wards in western 72 38 47 75 100 0 20 18 0 Suburbs Roads in Asphalt in P/South & P/North in W. S. 71 44 38 65 95 100 19 21 4 Improvement of Side Strips of S.V. Road in 64 39 39 65 95 100 16 19 3 Western Suburbs Mithi river from Airport new bridge-Marwa F.O.B. 32 28 13 45 80 100 10 11 6 Different Roads of North Zone And South Zone 24 0 99 100 0 0 0 0 0 Road and Retaining Wall of River Sabarmati 21 6 73 100 0 0 6 0 0 Development of Model Road Phase-2,In South 21 1 93 100 0 0 1 0 0 Zone Road at Ring Road 18 1 94 100 0 0 1 0 0 Roads Making at Isanpur, Vatva & Lambha Ward 9 6 34 65 95 100 3 3 0 – South Zone Roads – Dani Limbda, Baherampura & Ghodasar 8 3 61 95 100 0 3 0 0 Ward – South Zone Construction of NH-348 and Amra Marg of JNPT 328 318 3 25 55 95 72 98 131 Phase -III Gavanphata interchange and NH-4B in the state or 387 375 3 35 60 95 124 97 135 Maharashtra Karalphata interchange and connectivity to 350 340 3 25 55 95 77 105 140 proposed 4th terminal of JNPT Metro Projects DMRC CC-24 1028 317 69 95 100 0 266 51 0 DMRC CC-20 379 36 91 100 0 0 36 0 0 Elevated Viaduct of Metro Depot in Khokhra 278 140 50 85 100 0 98 42 0 Depot-cum-Workshop at Taloja for Navi Mumbai 132 45 66 85 100 0 25 20 0 Metro Line Depot approach viaduct for Navi Mumbai Metro 68 4 94 100 0 0 4 0 0 Line 1 Elevated viaduct and 6 elevated stations of 360 356 1 5 25 50 13 72 90 Andheri– Dahisar Corridor Underground Stations at CSIA Domestic, Sahar Road and CSIA International and Associated 2154 2154 0 3 25 50 65 474 538 Tunnels Underground Section & Stations at Dharavi, B.K.C. Vidya Nagari and Santa Cruz and 2858 2858 0 3 25 50 86 629 715 Associated Tunnels Total 11358 8646 2083 1611 2127 2052 Source: JKIL ,Ventura Research Order book to be maintained at ~Rs. 9,000-10,000 crore Going forward, we expect the management to focus on execution while keeping the order book at Rs 9,000-10,000 levels. We have assumed conservative project completion timelines and order inflows of ~Rs. 1,700 crores in FY18 and FY19 each. New order inflows and closing order book 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Total order book New order inflows Source: JKIL ,Ventura Research Urbanization capex to drive order inflows The Rs 100 bn crore worth project tenders that the MMRDA is expected to float for Mumbai Metro alone is only a drop in the sea of infra spending that the Maharashtra State government has lined up. With plans to launch infra projects worth Rs 740 bn in 2016, the total infra spending in Mumbai is cumulatively expected to touch Rs 1000 bn in the coming few years. With such a robust pipeline and with execution experience of a large order, we believe J Kumar’s scale of construction activity could expand significantly in the coming years. Slew of metro projects planned Metro projects -current status Length Project cost Implementing Particulars (km) (INRbn) agency Current status Under-construction Metro Mumbai Metro II &III 195.0 651.0 JKIL,HCC,L&T EPC contractor shortlisted Nagpur Metro 38.2 87.0 NMRCL Under construction Lucknow Metro 35.0 118.0 LMRC Phase I COD expected in Dec 2016 Ahmedabad Metro 37.9 117.0 MEGA Under construction Kochi Metro 25.6 52.0 KMRL COD expected soon Total 403.0 1185.0 Planned Metro Pune Metro 31.5 136.0 Kanpur Metro 36.0 105.0 Varanasi Metro 26.0 75.0 Meerut Metro 30.0 65.0 Agra Metro 25.0 65.0 Ludhiana Metro 28.8 87.0 Chandigarh Metro 37.6 136.0 Bhopal Metro 85.0 80.0 Indore Metro 107.0 120.0 Total 406.9 869.0 Source: JKIL ,Ventura Research Debt to remain at comfortable levels despite the execution of a lumpy order book Despite the execution of an order in excess of Rs 5,000 crore, a first timer for the company, the balance sheet is not expected to stretch significantly.
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