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Larsen & Toubro Initiating Coverage March 28, 2012 Rating Matrix Larsen & Toubro (LARTOU) Rating : Hold Target : | 1470 | 1320 Target Period : 12-15 months Potential Upside : 11% The Behemoth… Larsen & Toubro‘s (L&T) ability to increase its order backlog consistently YoY Growth (%) despite a weak investment cycle (42% YoY growth during last crisis (YoY Growth) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E phase of FY10 and 27% as on 9MFY12) showcases the company’s Net Sales 18.6 23.7 10.7 16.2 robust fundamentals. A diverse presence across segments and EBITDA 18.1 7.7 15.7 12.9 geographies, a strong balance sheet, reliability in execution and ability Net Profit (9.3) 6.6 9.5 13.4 to monetise the revival in investment cycle ensure that L&T is well EPS (Rs) (10.3) 6.6 9.5 13.4 placed to meet its FY12E revenue guidance of 25% YoY in an environment where its peers are facing declining order backlog and Current & target multiple volatility in earnings. Coupled with this, value unlocking in subsidiaries, FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E would offer huge upside potential as L&T has invested about | 7400 P/E 20.1 18.8 17.2 15.2 crore in various strategic subsidiaries, which have the capability to Target P/E 18.7 17.5 16.0 14.1 EV / EBITDA 15.3 14.4 12.2 10.6 provide huge back ended IRRs on equity. We believe L&T remains the Target EV / EBITDA 14.3 13.4 11.4 9.9 preferred bet in the capital goods space. We advise buying the stock on Price to Book Value 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.4 steep declines as a huge run up will cap upside in the short-term. Best placed to weather capex cycle downs and monetise the ups... Stock Data The investment cycle is going through a turbulent phase as capex Bloomberg/Reuters Code LT IN EQUITY/ LART.NS decisions are moving at a snails pace. However, we believe L&T has done Sensex 17,361.7 a commendable job in maintaining a flattish order inflow for 9MFY12 on a Average volumes 2,436,007 high base (we have built in ~8% decline in FY12E order inflows). L&T Market Cap (Rs crore) 80,368.2 commands a robust book-to-bill ratio of 2.9x as of Q3FY12. Therefore, this EV | 86606.8 Crore lends credence to our assumptions that L&T will be able to meet its FY12E 52 week H/L 1863 / 978 Equity Capital (Rs crore) 121.8 revenue target. We have been a tad conservative on the assumptions and Promoter's Stake (%) - have modelled in 23% YoY revenue growth for FY12E. Going ahead, FII Holding (%) 13.8 given the decline that L&T has witnessed in order inflows, we believe the DII Holding (%) 37.8 company can still achieve ~17% and 10% CAGR in revenues and PAT over FY11-14E, respectively. Comparative return matrix Subsidiaries: Storehouse of tremendous potential… Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M L&T invested | 7400 crore into various subsidiaries spanning across Larsen & Toubro Ltd (8.9) 29.1 (13.1) (14.7) various sectors and segments. Investments in subsidiaries have grown at GMR 1.2 47.1 3.0 (21.3) a CAGR of 43% (low base) over FY08-11. Going ahead, as various Thermax Ltd (10.6) 20.2 (2.1) (16.1) projects near their completion phase, we expect investments to grow at Crompton Greaves (8.5) 17.2 (8.2) (48.3) 20% CAGR over FY11-14E to | 13063 crore. Reaching a critical mass level (revenues) would trigger value unlocking. The process has taken off Price movement gradually as L&T Finance Holdings came out with an IPO in FY12. 7,000 2,500 Valuations 6,000 2,000 We have valued L&T on a sum of the parts methodology and arrived at a 5,000 fair value of | 1473/share in our base case scenario. The base business 4,000 1,500 remains the key contributor to valuations (~80%). Going ahead, a re- 3,000 (|) (Index) 1,000 rating/decline of P/E will be highly dependent on the order inflow outlook 2,000 500 in FY13E, which, in turn, will drive valuations. Also, listing of any 1,000 subsidiary can provide further impetus to value creation. Initiate with Hold 0 0 Exhibit 1: Valuation Metrics (Standalone) Oct-09 Feb-08 Jun-11 Dec-08 Mar-12 Aug-10 May-07 (Year-end March) FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) Net Sales (| crore) 36,675.2 43,495.9 53,799.6 59,568.7 69,236.1 EBITDA (| crore) 4,739.4 5,598.1 6,026.8 6,974.6 7,875.4 Net Profit (| crore) 4,417.1 4,006.8 4,269.9 4,675.6 5,302.9 Analyst’s name EPS (|) 73.4 65.8 70.1 76.8 87.1 Chirag Shah P/E (x) 18.0 20.1 18.8 17.2 15.2 [email protected] Price / Book (x) 4.3 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.4 RoCE 17.5 17.5 15.4 15.7 15.8 Sonabh Bubna [email protected] RoE 24.1 18.3 17.0 16.3 16.1 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Shareholding pattern (Q3FY12) Company Background ShareHolders Holdings (%) What does the company do? Promoters - Institutional Investors 51.7 After being incorporated in 1938, L&T has come a long way to become General Public 48.3 India's largest engineering and construction company. The company has business interests in engineering, construction, manufacturing, information technology and financial services. FII & DII holding trend (%) Considered the bellwether of the Indian engineering sector, it is renowned for its strong execution capabilities and professional management. The 40 37.8 37.5 36.3 36.6 company commands a dominant presence in India's infrastructure, 35 power, hydrocarbon, machinery and railway related projects. With a 30 customer base spanning across 30 countries, the company has 25 significantly increased its global footprint, along with a notable presence 20 16.4 in the Middle East. 15.9 15.2 13.8 15 10 The company operates across different business verticals through the 5 following independent companies. 0 Q3FY12 Q2FY12 Q1FY12 Q4FY11 Exhibit 2: Various business verticals FII DII Independent Company Business Area Undertakes projects on a lump-sum, turnkey basis, involving engineering, design and construction of infrastructure and industrial projects covering L&T Construction civil, mechanical and electrical & instrumentation facilties Undertakes 'design to build' / 'turnkey' EPC solutions, including civil/structural, plant design/mechanical, electrical and process control/automation in oil & gas, petroleum refining, chemicals & L&T Hydrocarbon petrochemicals and fertiliser sectors Manufactures and supplies customised critical equipment and systems to sectors such as thermal and nuclear power, aerospace, fertilisers, refinery, petrochemicals, oil & gas and equipment and systems for defence L&T Heavy Engineering applications Provides EPC of thermal power plants as well as co generation of thermal L&T Power power (2828 MW) Offers solutions in low & medium voltage categories, comprising switchgear, electrical systems, energy meters, automation systems and medical L&T Electrical & Automation equipment Engaged in manufacturing, trading and servicing of construction and mining L&T Machinery & Industrial equipment, valves, plastic processing machinery, paper processing Products machinery, wind mill components, casing and welding products With a focus on information technology and software services, it serves industries like banking and financial services, insurance, energy & L&T Infotech petrochemicals and manufacturing An NBFC offering a wide range of financial products and services to the commercial and farm sector. The company also provides mutual fund L&T Financial Services schemes for investors in India Undertakes construction of specialised oceangoing vessels from its Hazaria L&T Shipbuilding works facility Caters to rail infrastructure projects in urban mass transport systems, construction of facilities for manufacture of railway rolling stock and cross L&T Railway Projects country rail connectivity projects Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 How is the company structured? Exhibit 3: Business verticals of L&T of base business Metallurical & Power Buildings & Integrated Machinery And Hydro Infrastructure Heavy Shipbuilding Material Transmission & Engineering Power IC Electrical and Industrial Railways Carbon IC Factories IC IC IC Handling IC Distribution IC Services Engineering IC Automation IC Products IC Upstream Comercial Minerals & PT&D Mechanical Process Products - Oil & gas Heavy Civil Merchant EPC projects Construction Turnkey Metals Domestic and projects Buildings & Infrastructure plants for shipbuilding - Coal Based - Electrical Machinery Solutions -Floating Airports - Metro, Ports -Substaion Mechatronics - Coal gasifers - Boiler Island Standard - Construction systems -Airports & special Bulk Material - Industrial & Thermal Naval - STG Island Products and Mining -Subsea Mass - IT & Handling Electrification Embedded Power Plants - Metering and systems bridges shipbuilding - Gas based Machinery transport - Transmission Systems and -M odular Institutional - Hydel - Fertilisers & projects Protection - Hydraulic Systems Fabrication Buildings - Nuclear Water Effluent Lines Services Petrochemical Repair and Engineering Systems Equipment - offshore - Health & Construction and Treatment - Railways Plants refit- and Design for - Undercariage Installatio n Engineering Leisure Construction - Refinery, Projects - L&T Valdel - Transportation merchant Gas and Coal Systems PT&D Intl Engineering Residential Infrastructure Cracker, and Based plants - Electrical - Spares and Services Buildings & - Roads & -Substaion Oil & Gas Repair and Systems and Systems Mid & Factories runways - Transmission Defence & refit - Naval Manufacturing Equipment Industrial Downstre - Elite Housing Lines Aerospace - Control and am - Bridges - Supercritical Machinery - Industrial E&I - Refinery - Affordable & (Land) and Equipment
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