Greater Lincolnshire LEP Local Industrial Strategy Evidence Base
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GREATER LINCOLNSHIRE LEP CONSOLIDATED LOCAL INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY EVIDENCE BASE Contents Executive Summary 3 1. Introduction 5 2. Economy and productivity 7 3. Sectors 15 4. Foundation of productivity: Ideas 61 5. Foundation of productivity: People 76 6. Foundation of productivity: Infrastructure 107 7. Foundation of productivity: Business environment 117 8. Foundation of productivity: Place 135 2 Executive Summary Executive Summary Metro Dynamics has been commissioned by Greater performance from 2007/8 onwards. It is the only These three sub-sectors account for 43% of total new Lincolnshire LEP (GLLEP) to develop an evidence geographical part of the Greater Lincolnshire jobs created, although many of these jobs are likely to base to underpin their emerging Local Industrial economy which is smaller in GVA terms in 2017 than have relatively low wages. Agri-food is gaining in Strategy (LIS). This report summarises the key points it was in 1998. concentration between 2012-2017. The manufacture of this analysis. It draws upon existing LEP evidence, of food products (LQ 4.43; 25,000 jobs) is over 4 including the Strategic Economic Plan, the emerging In 2017 there were 468,500 jobs in GLLEP, with times as specialised as the UK average. Crop and opportunities framework and other strands of work, 35,500 new jobs created between 2012-2017. animal production (LQ 2.62; 18,500 jobs) is more and is supplemented with additional analysis to Lincolnshire (24,000 jobs) had the highest job growth than twice as specialised as the UK average. provide extra insight into productivity, the business in absolute terms, growing by 8.50% (UK job growth base, characteristics of the labour market, and place. rate is 9.63%). North Lincolnshire (5,500 jobs) had The growth in Civil Engineering (2,215 jobs) is 7.91% job growth and North East Lincolnshire (4,500 positive, and there has been strong growth in The Greater Lincolnshire economy jobs) 6.87%. Rutland (1,500 jobs) experienced the Computer Programming, Consultancy and Related highest job growth in percentage terms with 10.34%. Activities (1,745 jobs), albeit from a low base. There Greater Lincolnshire is a £20.7bn* economy is also a nascent but growing creative / digital according to the most recent GVA figures. The Sectors industry, concentrated in Lincoln and Grantham. economy has grown positively since 1998, by Opportunities exist to capitalise on GLLEP’s diverse 27.65%* - the 6th lowest among all LEPs. In 2017, Manufacturing is the largest sector at £4bn GVA and energy sector to both grow the sector’s GVA and to GLLEP’s GVA per hour worked was £27.40 - the 5th is the third highest employer in the region. Its ensure it enables success in other sectors. lowest across all LEPs. This is 22.8% lower than the contribution to GLLEP’s GVA has shrunk by 6% over UK average. the past twenty years, although this has steadied GLLEP’s sectors sometimes are concentrated after a period of disruption which followed the geographically – for instance ports & logistics activity During the financial crisis all areas experienced a financial crisis. It remains a high proportion of the exists mostly around the Humber estuary or the decline in productivity. Productivity in GLLEP GLLEP economy. visitor economy in some coastal areas. This means recovered from 2009-2015 however has since been that some sectors may drive the hyperlocal economy, on a downward trajectory. The total effect has been a Alongside manufacturing, there are existing strengths employment and supply chains. For the LIS, there 0.1% decline in productivity from 2007 to 2017. and opportunities in specific sectors: agrifoods, may be an opportunity to increase economic GLLEP’s declining productivity means that the energy and water, ports & logistics, visitor economy, resilience and sector diversity across the LEP. productivity gap between GLLEP and the UK has and health & care. In all these sectors GLLEP is widened – from a gap of 18.1% in 2007 to 22.8% in experiencing positive jobs growth and positive GLLEP is well-positioned to contribute to the Clean 2017. business birth rates. Growth and Ageing Society Grand Challenges within Some local authorities, such as Boston and South the UK’s National Industrial Strategy, as these Grand High job growth in Food and Beverage Service Holland, have seen fairly consistent growth since Challenges align well with GLLEP’s priority sectors Activities (8,550 jobs), Manufacture of Food Products 1998. North Lincolnshire, on the basis of real growth and with the region’s geography and demographic (4,880 jobs), and Crop and Animal Production (2,000 in GVA, has not recovered from the effects of the profile. jobs) reflects Lincolnshire’s strong agri-food industry. financial crash, with an overall downward trend in 3 *Figures do not include Rutland. Executive Summary Place: Differences between the East and West the West part of the LEP. Over 30% of residents in the 2024. The data suggests an oversupply of people with East from Mablethorpe to Skegness have no or low low skills and undersupply of higher level skills. The GLLEP is a polycentric area consisting of rural areas, qualifications. education gap between GLLEP and comparators coastline and dispersed towns, each making widens after NVQ 3. GLLEP NVQ 4 attainment is distinctive contributions to the GLLEP economy. The Eastern towns all have a lower share of residents lower than UK shares with over 10% difference Performance between the town areas is variable with in managerial roles (under 25%). In parts of Grimsby, between GLLEP and UK attainment. Grimsby, Lincoln and Scunthorpe the three largest Scunthorpe and Louth, the range is lower, at 5% - populations. Clusters of business are found across the 17%. Pockets of low income ranging from £20,001 to The percentage of jobs in GLLEP paying below the LEP area and business growth has been particularly £25,000 are clustered eastward in resort towns such real living wage is higher than the UK and regional strong in Lincoln at 20% between 2013-2018. as Skegness, Grimsby, and Mablethorpe. Resort average. This is an area of concern given that the real towns such as Skegness, Mablethorpe, and Grimsby living wage acts as a proxy for in work poverty, which Greater Lincolnshire possesses an attractive quality of are among the 10% most deprived. remains a major issue for achieving inclusive growth. place offering, with low population density and plenty Raising wages (and perhaps redesigning jobs) of rural space, the Lincolnshire Wolds Area of People: An ageing society with inclusive growth alongside targeted support for identified residents and Outstanding Natural Beauty, 50 miles of coastline, challenges to overcome sectors could help raise living standards and increase Lincoln City and a visitor economy which promotes productivity. access to the natural environment and other The total population is predicted to increase from Business environment, ideas and innovation attractions. 1.12m in 2019 to 1.20m by 2041, however this increase is skewed heavily towards population growth GLLEP has started from a low base in Ideas, but there Across many of the areas looked at in the report we in the 65+ age category. A 38.4% increase in the are signs that this is changing - the investments by the see pronounced pockets of deprivation along the retirement age population, compared to 44.4% in the University of Lincoln, the LEP and several large Eastern coast. This is a large LEP geography, with East Midlands, is a large increase and will present a businesses for example. Given the latest data is at limited public transport networks and investment new set of challenges around social care and the 2015, this may not be reflected in the figures. 80% of required in new transport and digital infrastructure. provision of public services. This is accompanied by a R&D expenditure per inhabitant in Lincolnshire is by Development of the A46 is an important infrastructure forecast decline in the working age population (-2.7%): businesses, compared to the UK value of 67%. project to better connect the region, alongside North East Lincolnshire for example is predicted to additional capacity on the East Coast Mainline and experience a decline of 8.97% in the 16-64 cohort. GLLEP’s business base consists of 39,650 VAT regional connections. registered businesses – 88% of which are micro. 36% Positively, GLLEP is a net attractor of people. Total of employment is in large businesses, which is the Poor connectivity out to the East may be a factor in net migration between June 2017 and June 2018 was third lowest proportion across LEPs. In trade, the some of the figures we see here. Analysis shows that 4,499, driven by inflows of 58,273 outpacing outflows region is a net importer of goods, however produced in coastal areas three people over 60 are moving in for of 53,757. GLLEP experiences positive net inflows £4.7bn of exports in 2017, 63% of which was bound every two 16-24 year olds moving out. across all age groups except for those ages 20 – 34, for EU destinations. GLLEP’s businesses and priority where outflows from Lincolnshire and North East sectors are exposed to risks from Brexit, which will There is skills inequality with approximately a 47% Lincolnshire result in net outflows for GLLEP. need to be managed as part of LIS implementation. difference between the East and West in terms of It is a challenge for the area to find suitably qualified NVQ 4 qualifications. Areas with a higher share of people to fill 207,000 job vacancies between 2014 and degree-qualified residents (over 30%) are typically in 4 Introduction Introduction Metro Dynamics has been commissioned by the Greater Lincolnshire Local possible, temporal data and change over time has been used to Enterprise Partnership (‘GLLEP’ or ‘Greater Lincolnshire’ throughout this contextualise current performance and show trends.