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Africa Confidential

Africa Confidential

www.africa-confidential.com 8 December 2000 Vol 41 No 24 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 3 Pretend normality Rebuffing calls to negotiate with Bringing back the British UNITA rebels, the ruling MPLA is Critically dependent on UN and British military support, President offering an amnesty to all those Kabbah’s government is facing growing civilian opposition who give up the gun. However confident the MPLA may be Desperation and nostalgia help explain why more than 5,000 Sierra Leoneans crowded in to the militarily, it is facing growing National Stadium in on 23 November to show their support for British soldiers in their pressure from within its own ranks country. Many of the crowd went further, to demand that the government of Sierra Leone be handed and civil activists about the back to Britain on a trusteeship basis for several years. Earlier in the month, on 11 November, many worsening social crisis. more Sierra Leoneans had joined British soldiers in Freetown to commemorate the millions of allied troops who had perished in the two world wars. Thousands of Sierra Leoneans fought in the Second 5 World War and Freetown was an important staging post in the Falklands War. Yet the clamour for recolonisation must seem bizarre to the many self-respecting nationalists who pushed Britain out 40 A longer years ago. Above all, it shows Sierra Leone’s dire political and military predicament and the chronic presidency dependency of President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah’s government on outsiders (AC Vol 41 No 14). Unquestionably, that government hangs on to power courtesy of some 750 British forces and about President Chiluba seems to want 13,000 peacekeepers in the Mission in Sierra Leone (Unamsil). Without the cordon to contest the presidency for a third term although the constitution limits sanitaire these forces provide around Freetown, Revolutionary United Front soldiers and their allies him to two. Elections are due by from and Liberia would have overrun the capital. That is little comfort to the other November next year and with no three million Sierra Leoneans living outside the capital, a million of whom survive hand-to-mouth successor in sight and presidential in RUF-controlled areas. As diplomatically as he could, UN Secretary General on his campaigns banned, political 2-3 December visit to Sierra Leone urged the Kabbah government to take more responsibility for tensions are mounting. ending the crippling war with the RUF.

SWAZILAND 6 Get a grip Annan believes it would be easier to persuade bigger countries to contribute troops to Unamsil if the High price of government had a better political grip and a more credible negotiating strategy. Since an unseemly kingship row between the Indian commander of Unamsil, General Vijay Jetley, and his Nigerian counterparts After reigning for 14 years, King resulted in the 3,000-strong Indian contingent pulling out, Annan has been doing his best to prevent Mswati II is beginning to make the total collapse of the force. The withdrawal of 1,800 Jordanian peacekeepers - ostensibly political errors. His eviction of two because no industrialised country would provide troops - has worsened the position. Filling the gap popular chiefs upset his core now are two battalions from and one more each from and . An supporters as well as business. experienced diplomatic soldier, Kenya’s Gen. Daniel Opande, has taken over from Jetley. Opposition militants quickly tried to capitalise on the confrontation. Even so, the UN is scrambling to find troops to maintain the force at its current level of 12,500, let alone boost it to the 20,500 level agreed by the UN Security Council this year. Even worse than the troop shortage is the deficit of equipment, coordination and intelligence which has 7 weakened Unamsil operations so much. That reached its nadir with the capture of 500 Unamsil peacekeepers by RUF forces in May. Matters have been made worse by the in-fighting around Carlos Cardoso Unamsil’s political leadership under Nigerian diplomat Oluyemi Adeniji, whose contract comes up The assassination of pioneering for renewal at the end of this year. Some at the UN Secretariat in New York blame Adeniji for Mozambican journalist Carlos Unamsil’s lack of progress but we hear that he has some strong defenders on the Secretary General’s Cardoso on 22 November shows 38th floor and is likely to be reappointed. the growing threat to African reporters and free speech. In almost every way, the UN’s Sierra Leone operations exemplify the problems identified in a damning critique of peacekeeping by the UN Under-Secretary General for Special Assignments, Lakhdar Brahimi of , as ‘too slow, too tied up in red tape, too weak or too fragmented to POINTERS 8 deal effectively with conflicts.’ But the debate about Brahimi’s recommendations, made at the end of November, to bolster the UN’s Peacekeeping Department with more money, better management France/Africa, and technology is only just beginning. It will take several months before any of his recommendations Ethiopia/Eritrea & filter through to Unamsil. Bissau Meanwhile, Britain is sharply expanding its military, political and economic presence in Sierra Leone. In an almost covert way, its military presence has grown sharply. In May, a British rapid reaction force was deployed within 48 hours of an emergency cabinet meeting in Downing Street, after it had seemed the RUF was marching on Freetown and the UN forces were in disarray. Although the public explanation was that the British troops were to evacuate expatriates, it became 8 December 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 24

on the ground are moving terribly slowly. N i g GUINEA e Since the crisis in May when RUF soldiers threatened Freetown r

s (AC Vol 41 No 10) there has been virtual military and political ie c r a c es Kabala GUINEA paralysis. The capture of the RUF leader, Corporal , S ci t r GOV a a Northern e c r S and the sacking and arrest of RUF members of Kabbah’s power- G e Province tl it L sharing cabinet ended the tentative and controversial Lomé peace Kambia SIERRA LEONE settlement. Since then, Gen. Issa Sesay has emerged as leader of Bumbuna Mange Makeni UN GOV the RUF, although some militants insist he is no more than a

l

e Kawbana Port Loko GOV UN k o caretaker pending Sankoh’s release. If anything, the RUF has R UN Rogberi Junc. UN Lungi Magburaka s Yengema marginally improved its military position since May: it has UN t Rokel Bridge i FREETOWN Tongo Okra Masiaka s consolidated its defences in the diamond-rich areas of Kono and UN Mile 91 UN fields GOV UN o Hastings p Tongo Field. UN e Magbuntoso d Moyamba Eastern Kailahun Most importantly, the RUF has been involved in attacks on UN d Western UN Bo n Province o Guinea in collaboration with Liberian-based militias. President Area UN Daru Western m UN Province ia Kenema Lansana Conté says Liberian President Charles Taylor is a d UN ew a S n o coordinating the operation which has killed more than 350 Guineans i M Joru o a an Bonthe M UN M and exacerbated the regional effects of Sierra Leone’s war. Taylor Sherbro Island Pujehun denies this, claiming Conté’s forces are behind anti-government attacks in Liberia’s Lofa County. Whatever the truth, spreading ATLANTIC LIBERIA OCEAN the war in Guinea helps the RUF tremendously. It opens up new supply routes from the RUF bases in Eastern and Northern provinces, northwards into sporadically-policed eastern Guinea, to smuggle Protective horseshoe around Freetown by SLA / UN / UK forces out diamonds and bring in more arms. Strategically, it complicates Areas under RUF control the military picture for Freetown’s government forces and its efforts to pin down the rebels. GOV Towns protected by government forces 100 kilometres UN Towns with UN deployments This leaves Kabbah and his British and UN backers with a 50 miles dilemma. Neither of the two policy approaches tried has made much headway: the reconciliation approach (, power- obvious that they had a much wider brief. Several changes of the sharing and immunity for the rebels) or else military might (defeat guard later, the British military effort is still growing. Another 100 of the RUF by Sierra Leone government forces, or a troops and support staff from the 1st Mechanised Brigade were West African peacekeeping force, a UN operation with a peace- deployed last month to advise (that is, to help run) the Kabbah enforcement mandate or British troops backing any or all of the government’s defence headquarters in Freetown. above). So the current policy, emerging by default rather than And there’s more. This month, a cabinet committee under design, is an uneasy combination of the two: under-resourced Development Minister Clare Short is to report to Prime Minister peacekeeping operations and a half-hearted attempt at negotiations with proposals for a bigger British role in peacekeeping with the RUF. and in military and police training. This follows Short’s insistence that reform of a country’s army and police is an essential part of After the rains, the rebels promoting economic development. Sierra Leone has become the More military and political pressure is coming up. The end of the trial ground for the new policy. When asked what the objective rains will allow the RUF to strike out more against government was, Foreign Secretary Robin Cook casually replied: ‘To rebuild targets despite the ceasefire it signed last month. Some RUF Sierra Leone.’ hardliners insist they won’t observe the ceasefire as long as British So what’s driving British policy? It’s a heady mixture: personal troops stay on. As before, RUF strategy will be to consolidate commitment (Blair has personal ties to Sierra Leone through his control over the diamond areas and provide enough military father Leo; diplomatic self-interest (Britain helps to justify its diversions to keep the SLA and Unamsil busy. permanent seat on the Security Council with its key peacekeeping Kabbah also has to decide how to deal with the formal end of his role); strategic and commercial interests (trying to stabilise the mandate in February-March. Almost everyone agrees that elections West African sub-region is good for British interests in established can’t be held under the present wartime conditions but they differ markets such as Ghana and ); bolstering military morale over the alternatives. Kabbah’s circle wants elections in areas (British troops are genuinely keen to help Sierra Leone). under government control or, if pressed, would ask parliament to Yet there are huge risks for the Labour government. To many vote for a six-month extension to Kabbah’s mandate. Yet British politicians, especially on the Conservative benches, the oppositionists, particularly the six northern-based groups that have policy looks undefined and ambiguous. More practically, Blair and formed the Grand Alliance Party, want an interim national his Labour Party are set to call general elections next year, probably government to preside over constitutional and electoral reform. by mid-year. While British voters may be less averse to war After the collapse of the power-sharing agreement with the RUF in casualties than their American counterparts, the last thing Blair May, President Kabbah’s Sierra Leone People’s Party is chary wants is British troops bogged down in a bush war in Sierra Leone about any fresh coalition arrangement. that almost no one understands. The political sophisticates behind Yet that might be precisely the kind of initiative, especially if it the RUF may calculate their offensives against Freetown brought in political support from civil society organisations and accordingly. For all the British deployment in Sierra Leone and the the country’s marginalised areas, that could move the peace process training of some 3,000 soldiers for the Sierra Leone Army, things forward. It may be that if Kabbah’s government were willing to 2 8 December 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 24 work with the northern politicians in the Grand Alliance, they believing that he used two previous peace agreements - the Bicesse could provide a bridge to bring the RUF back into serious Accords of 1991 and the Protocol of 1994 - as shields behind negotiations. That will not be enough, though. The cross-border which to regroup and rearm. It wants any talks to be focused solely spread of Sierra Leone’s war means that some type of sub-regional on the Lusaka peace terms, which require Savimbi to demobilise his security arrangement is essential, perhaps under the army and effectively accept peace on ’s terms. Powerful Union, of which Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia are all members. outsiders - especially the ‘Troika’ (United States, Russia and At the heart of such an arrangement, there would need to be an ) - share Luanda’s conviction that it is impossible to external security guarantee for Sierra Leone’s diamond fields, at negotiate with Savimbi. US diplomats are fond of repeating Savimbi’s present largely under rebel control. If it were to win broad support, own view of his career: ‘Either I succeed or I die violently’. this guarantee would have to ensure the diamond wealth benefited Succeeding does not mean being Vice-President to Dos Santos. the whole country, not just a narrow elite in Freetown or Monrovia Gen. Kamorteiro neatly described UNITA’s contempt for the or Ouagadougou. And that’s where the proposed national Lusaka accord: ‘UNITA’s armed forces for the liberation of Angola government - if it had real legitimacy - could help. will never again engage in the game of disarming as woven in Lusaka.’ UNITA presented its own twelve-point peace plan on 30 October. Railing against ‘neocolonialism’ and calling for a ‘profound ANGOLA discussion on the political, historical, social, cultural, economic and social causes of conflict’, it also rejected any future role in talks for the Troika countries, which are now concentrating on their lucrative Pretence of normality economic interests. The ruling MPLA offers the rebels amnesty Going the MPLA’s Way but no talks The MPLA’s growing confidence is evident in dealings with its Cocksure of its diplomatic and military position, the ruling regional neighbours, Western oil companies and the United Nations. Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola has secured At times, Foreign Minister João Miranda sounds like a weary parliamentary approval of a new and renewable 60-day amnesty colonial pro-consul when lamenting the enduring political ructions law that wrong-foots both rebel leader and church in Congo-Brazzaville and Congo-Kinshasa. Angola pressured and civil groups pushing for a negotiated end to the civil war. neighbouring Zambia and to curb UNITA activities along Bornito de Souza, head of the MPLA parliamentary caucus, its eastern and southern borders. Formerly frosty relations with called the amnesty bill, which was approved on 29 November, a look to be warming, following Foreign Minister ‘hugely magnanimous gesture’. President José Eduardo dos Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma’s visit to Angola on 17-20 November Santos had floated the amnesty for ‘all those who abandon unjust and agreement on forming a new bilateral commission. An Angolan- war and opt for democracy’ on 10 November in a speech marking Zambian bilateral commission ironed out discord in recent months the 25th anniversary of Independence. In fact, the amnesty reflects that stemmed from fighting near the eastern border, which resulted little change in the position held by the President in June: forgiveness in the capture by Luanda’s Forças Armadas Angolanas (FAA) of the for those who repent. strategic eastern town of Cazombo at the end of September. Although the stop-start guerrilla war (also 25 years old) waged The government also took aim at UN Secretary General Kofi by Savimbi’s União Nacional para a Independência Total de Annan’s representative, Mussagy Jeichande, who arrived in Luanda Angola currently poses no serious threat to Angola’s rulers or its on 29 September to a less than warm welcome. Luanda worries he main urban centres, civilians in the vast interior live in terror of could be an agent of future pressure for real negotiations with indiscriminate killings, landmines, forced removals, rape and forced Savimbi. Dos Santos would not receive Jeichande for over a month. conscription by both sides. Most government-held towns still have Meanwhile, government officials told the influential church station security perimeters with a radius of less then 16 kilometres. In Radio Eclesia that it considered Zoraida Mesa, the Uruguayan November, UNITA fighters struck in the provinces of Uige, Huila head of the local office of the UN Development Programme and the and Benguela just ten km. from the provincial capitals. And Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), to be fighting in Bié Province just north of Kuito around the towns of the top UN representative in Angola. A confidential but leaked letter Nharea and Cunhinga reportedly displaced 20,000 people during from the Foreign Ministry repeated this view and the UN had to issue October and November. a statement clarifying Jeichande’s position as Annan’s representative and head of the UN Office in Angola. Few takers for amnesty Jeichande’s arrival may strengthen UNOA’s anaemic political Among the possible beneficiaries of the new amnesty are journalists role, previously limited to human rights and training. Yet the snub Aguiar dos Santos, Gustavo Costa and Rafael Marques, who to Jeichande, a Mozambican, reflects Angolan anger at Mozambican had received suspended sentences plus speech and travel restrictions President , who seems to go along with South for ‘defamation’ of Dos Santos and the head of his Civil Affairs Africa’s advocacy of new talks with Savimbi. Department at the Presidency, José Leitão. Marques said he Luanda, presiding over sub-Saharan Africa’s second biggest oil believed the proposed law contained the right legal elements to lift industry, is getting more assertive towards the big Western companies the restrictions. The UNITA Chief of Staff, General Geraldo (AC Vol 41 Nos 21 & 23). , head of state oil Abreu ‘Kamorteiro’, rejected the amnesty ‘totally and irrevocably’ company Sonangol, told Reuters on 16 November that he had last month. UNITA Secretary General Paulo Lukamba ‘Gato’ ordered US-based ExxonMobil, now the world’s largest private oil added: ‘We are ready for protracted war and to make the country company, to cancel a tender for US$3.1 billion of work on the giant ungovernable if Dos Santos does not accept direct negotiations.’ deep-water Kizomba development because it had not previously Luanda sees negotiations with Savimbi as a waste of time, agreed tender terms with Sonangol. Specifically, Sonangol objected 3 8 December 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 24 Luanda looks to Norway Angola’s go-slow on the development of its massive offshore oil Thirdly, Angola is pressuring oil companies to use Sonangol joint- fields is sending ripples through the world’s biggest oil companies, ventures as contractors, again copying Norway’s model for building a worried about lower investment returns and profits. Luanda’s new local oil industry from scratch. Major companies prefer to choose their strategy follows the ‘Norwegian model’: it means slowing down the contractors on the open market but Angolan officials insist this is the billion dollar oil projects to husband reserves and giving priority to only way to build a local industry. Angolanisation may benefit but developing an indigenous oil industry. Luanda will also stay at arm’s Sonangol’s history suggests this could widen the scope for corruption. length from the Organisation of Exporting Countries. Sonangol has also announced plans to sell off parts of the company Independent analysts are worried about the potential for corruption to local ‘entrepreneurs’. This might explain why Joaquim David, under a new ‘Angolanisation’ programme which could bring in former Managing Director of Sonangol, assumed the Industry portfolio several small companies with little track record or public after being sacked as Finance Minister in a reshuffle in October. The accountability. The strategy is partly domestically inspired, partly lack of transparency in privatisation worries local and foreign businesses, foreign. Local suspicions that deep-water contracts with Chevron, at least those apparently excluded from the deals. ExxonMobil, TotalFinaElf and BP were too generous to the operators From August to October, Norwegian-financed meetings on were fuelled by President Denis Sassou-Nguesso of neighbouring Angolanisation and the development of oil policy were attended by top Congo-Brazzaville, who is close to the ruling Movimento Popular de officials, such as Sonangol’s Managing Director, Manuel Vicente, and Libertação de Angola . Sassou-Nguesso claimed that his predecessor, the long-serving and influential deputy Oil Minister, , Pascal Lissouba, had signed deals that were not in Congo’s best as well as Norway’s Oil and Energy Minister, Olav Akselsen. Foreign interests. The United States was so pleased with Lissouba’s marketing Minister João Miranda visited Norway in October, where he met King deal with Occidental Oil in 1993 that Vice-President Al Gore visited Harald and senior officials from the oil and social sectors. Good in December 1995 to trumpet Lissouba’s democratic credentials. relations have also existed for years with José Mangueira, Angola’s Less was heard from Washington when Lissouba was toppled by former National Director of Petroleum and now the Oil Ministry’s Sassou-Nguesso nine months later. Director of International Relations. Equally influential has been the world’s sixth largest producer, Backed by the Norwegian government-industry association, Intsok, Norway, which has had energy cooperation agreements with Angola Norwegian companies such as Kvaerner, ABB, Aker, Statoil and Norsk since 1987 and shares with it massive oil production rates compared Hydro, have won contracts in Angola. Norsk Hydro is set to win a stake to population. Norway’s advice covers three key areas. Firstly, long- in the huge ultra-deep Block 34 in an innovative arrangement that will term management of oil reserves is a priority under a new bilateral require it to teach Sonangol how to become a deep-water operator. agreement signed in August with Norway’s Petroleum Directorate, Although the award of the remaining 50 per cent equity in Block 34, which has helped improve management and draw up new regulations. which is expected to come up for grabs, is keenly awaited, the overall This has influenced the slow-down and follows three Norwegian slow-down has dampened the companies’ enthusiasm for bidding. ministerial-level visits to Angola in the last three years. Norway is also advising on the crippling ‘Dutch disease’, which can Secondly, Oil Minister Botelho de Vasconcelos says that Angola afflict mineral-rich countries when a surge of money into state accounts will follow Norway in keeping close to, but apart from, OPEC, giving can destroy a non-oil industrial base and worsen mismanagement, as Luanda the freedom to choose when to cut production in support of has happened in West African oil producers such as Cameroon and higher oil prices. Angola is an OPEC observer, not a member. After Nigeria. Norway has established an ‘oil fund’ to avoid this and to years of outside interference, it is reluctant to join an international manage fluctuations in the world price. This will be difficult in Angola, organisation able to demand changes to local production rates, which where billions of dollars of oil revenue have been diverted into are currently about 750,000 barrels per day. unorthodox financing schemes and massive arms purchases.

to Exxon’s decision to use cheaper equipment in its deep-water diamond regions, despite recent claims from the Ministry of Geology blocks than is called for in its contract. Luanda was determined to and Mines that the FAA now control the whole area. UNITA still send Exxon a message that heavy-handed business tactics would has people in the Cuango valley (though official miners hold the not win it favours in Angola. Exxon was the last of the oil majors most lucrative territories there) and has also advanced recently in to start up in Angola: it was awarded exploration Block 15 which areas between there and the Chicapa-Luachimo river systems had been promised previously to British Petroleum. However, further east, running north-south through Lucapa. Army generals relations between Exxon and the Luanda government then went and UNITA have cooperated profitably for years in neighbouring downhill fast. Former Oil Minister Albina Assis de Africano plots in the diamond areas under local non-aggression pacts; the complained that it took ExxonMobil two years to hire its first FAA’s weakness in this strategically vital area results partly from Angolan member of staff. such deals. All this weakens the government’s claim that it is doing A report by Médecins Sans Frontières last month criticised the its utmost to catch or kill Savimbi, which is seen by many in Luanda ‘pretence of normality’ in Angola following recent government as the only way to break the cycle of war. military victories and the ‘choice’ of both sides ‘to expose the population to violence and use them in war strategy.’ The The enemy within international community had chosen ‘to ratify this policy for the The greatest risk for government stability could come from political benefit of its own economic interests’ and the UN was adapting its circles in Luanda, perhaps from members of the MPLA linked with aid programmes to support the government’s plan, known as civil society elements angry about appalling social problems. Big- ‘relocalisation’, to reinstall civilians displaced by the war back in hitter reformists favoured by some Western powers, such as former their home areas. By doing so, MSF argued, the UN was giving MPLA Secretary General Lopo de Nascimento and Abel short shrift to the needs of the civilians and effectively renouncing Chivukuvuku from an independent UNITA wing in Luanda, have ‘the principle of neutral and indiscriminate access to populations’. kept a fairly low profile of late. Others are exerting some pressure, UNITA forces have advanced recently in the north-eastern though. A bread demonstration on 7 November organised by

4 8 December 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 24

Carlos Leitão, President of the Partido de Apoio a Democracia e Sata, say Chiluba will retire. Progreso (PADPA), was attended by only a few hundred people. After a mammoth prayer session on 11-12 November in the Lagos But the more powerful public sector union, the União Nacional de church of controversial Nigerian Prophet Temitope Joshua (and Trabalhadores (Unta), gave the government until 3 December to apparently alongside Prince Yormie Johnson, a retired Liberian start negotiations over public sector salaries or face strikes. warlord), the born-again Chiluba said he wanted to serve God as a The final budget for 2000 earmarked an even lower percentage prophet not a president. Some think his plans depend on progress with of funds to social sectors than the original budget, despite rising oil his proposed Institute for Industrial and Democracy Studies; the prices. This suggests the government still wants donors to bail it foundations have been laid in Lusaka but a lot of money must still be out of its social problems. Government hospitals lack medicines raised. and equipment. Salaries of health workers are at rock bottom. Some observers, including donors, suggest that Chiluba’s enthusiasm MSF reported that the Ministry of Health provided just 1.2 per cent is fading as economic problems mount and, despite his mediating role, of the needs of the hospital in the main city of Kuito, for example. the fighting escalates in Congo-Kinshasa. One donor says the The combined budget outlay for the Ministries of Health and of President is considering a third term because he can’t find a suitable and Culture fell from 5.3 per cent of the original budget successor. His choices, rejected by other ministers, have been Eric to just 4.2 per cent in the final version. The allocation for the Social Silwamba, the Minister for Presidential Affairs and his close ally, and Assistance Ministry was cut from 8.3 per cent to 6.3 per cent. Minister for Legal Affairs Vincent Malambo. The government is, however, accommodating some opposition ideas as politics opens up gradually and the military threat recedes. Probes promised General elections are due next year ‘or later’, according to Corruption and abuse of power will be major issues in next year’s parliamentary president Roberto de Almeida. Discussions about election campaign. Anderson Mazoka, leader of the flourishing a future constitution (which Savimbi would want as part of an opposition United Party for National Development, says that if elected, overall package of wide-ranging negotiations) include whether the he will launch a corruption probe. Major questions are being raised state president can also be president of a political party, whether to about accountability in the MMD government and about the executive’s have two parliamentary chambers (many in UNITA broadly support centralisation of power. a second chamber containing unelected traditional authorities) and Since 1991, Chiluba has surrounded himself with dependents and decentralisation of power. The appointment in October of Carlos has littered the path with casualties. Emmanuel Kasonde, a veteran Feijó, a professor from the Catholic University and an independent who in the MMD’s early days seemed an alternative to Chiluba, was constitutional expert, to the newly created post of Presidential fired in 1993 for disloyalty. Andrew Kashita was sacked in 1995 as Advisor on Regional and Local Affairs, signals the government’s Minister of Works and Supply but is still influential in business circles. intention to tackle some of these tough issues. Technocrat businessman Enock Kavindele, who dared to challenge Kaunda in 1991, was sacked as Science and Technology Minister in ZAMBIA 1998. His return to the cabinet on 22 November as Health Minister prompted speculation about his chances as a successor to Chiluba. One view has Kavindele as Chiluba’s reserve card should his plans for a third term go awry; another, that he has independent political A longer presidency ambitions and some significant backing in the succession race; a third, Chiluba says he prefers prophecy to that he was brought in to compensate the politically important north- presidency but not everyone believes it western province after the sacking of Tourism Minister Anoshi Chipawa. Certainly, if Kavindele got the MMD nomination, he Frederick Chiluba seems to want to keep his job, although the would be a credible candidate. constitution says a president may serve only two five-year terms. Although elections are around the corner, State House sources say His ambition could be frustrated if his lieutenants, brow-beaten it is too early to talk about a successor. Chiluba himself clears the backbenchers and the rank-and-file of the ruling Movement for travel plans of ministers, who must be escorted at all times by police Multi-Party Democracy, have the inclination or the mettle to resist. officers. Last year he brought back the district administrators scrapped Elections are due by November next year and, with no successor in in 1991. As in Kaunda’s days, the 72 DAs operate as political sight and presidential campaigning banned, tension is mounting. commissars, reporting directly to the President. They have been Three months’ notice is required for a party convention and one has allocated US$4 million and control of the Constituency Development not yet been called. Fund, which contributes to small-scale government projects sponsored Chiluba often repeats the official line that he will retire. Yet by members of parliament. They also decide who attends the party lurking suspicions that he aims for a third term erupted again in late convention, so through them the President could control delegations. October when, arriving back from after a 14-day working Sata has warned some worried MPs to ignore the officials at their holiday, he refused to confirm that to reporters. He said he would peril. Insiders say that if the convention is packed with people pushing abide by the constitution but he is not a constitutional operator; he for a third term for Chiluba, the party could be ripped apart. In pushed through an amendment in 1996 to prevent ex-President Southern Province especially, Chiluba’s ways have increasingly vexed Kenneth Kaunda (whose Zambian citizenship was reinstated on MPs and party officials. The President’s strongman in the south is 30 October) from contesting the presidency. Syceye Madyenkuku, Sports Minister and MP for Sinazongwe, who The signs from State House are confusing. Chiluba loyalists was detained with Chiluba under Kaunda. Edwin Hatembo, deputy Sonny Mulenga (deputy Minister for Lusaka Province) and Suresh Minister at Home Affairs and MP for Livingstone, is another Chiluba Desai (Agriculture Minister) orchestrate the party cadres’ clamour loyalist. for a third term. But senior ministers such as Vice-President Most Southerners, predominantly Tonga people, believe they have Christon Tembo and the Minister without Portfolio, Michael had a raw deal, being denied senior ministries despite years of loyalty. 5 8 December 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 24

They united to claim the presidency for Mazoka but, two years ago, he favour of Tembo, a retired general who was involved in the 1980 coup was forced out of the MMD. Then they united behind Local (probably to ensure the loyalty of the army). Miyanda, another born- Government Minister Bennie Mwiinga but he died last year, amid again, is isolated in cabinet and speaks out against ministerial corruption. rumours that he had been bumped off. Frederick Hapunda, who is However, he might make a deal in order not to rock the boat and his likely to speak out at the party convention, was this year forced to clean image would work well against Mazoka (although head of resign as MMD Chairman of Southern Province. Hatembo was Zambia Railways, he strongly rebuts claims that he swapped healthy supposed to take his place but the ploy backfired and Edgar Keembe cows for his own scraggy ones on their way up from South Africa). was elected instead. Keembe and Syamkayumba Syamujaye, the Mazoka offers free health and education to those who can’t afford it, Mines Minister and MP for Choma, recently joined a delegation a smart ploy since the official systems are a shambles. which told Chiluba that it had identified an as yet unnamed presidential Mazoka and the UPND are slowly but steadily gaining ground. The candidate. Vincent Malambo, regarded as treacherous, has failed to UPND’s by-election win in Mwandi on 14 November gave it six of the win support among Southern MPs. 150 seats in parliament and made it the official opposition. It has footholds in Central, Southern and Western provinces and needs seats Copper-plated corruption in two more provinces - preferably Lusaka and North-Western - to The United Party for National Development, formed in 1998, thinks become a real force. Mazoka claims that the gassing on 17 November a third-term campaign will play into its hands. Under Chiluba, of his Cairo Road offices was an attempt at intimidation and that poverty has deepened and privatisation of the mines has cost thousands government loyalists masterminded his traffic accident on the Mpika- of jobs (AC Vol 41 No 17). For example, the Luanshya mine was sold Kasama road on 13 September. in 1997 amid allegations of irregularities to the Binani Group, headed The MMD Chairman, Sikota Wina (who may soon lose the by a British-based Indian businessman, Gokul Binani. On 22 chairmanship anyway) is said to have been helping the UPND to November, it was placed in receivership. Some 5,000 jobs are at risk. decide which of its candidates should stand where. The Mwandi by- Luanshya features in a parliamentary select committee report election, lost by the MMD, was caused by the death of the incumbent, tabled on 28 November which heavily criticises almost everything Monde Nganga Nang’umbi, a sister of his wife, Princess Nakatindi about the privatisation of Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines. It says Wina. When the UPND was formed, the Winas apparently donated a ministers illegally overturned the decision of the Zambia Privatisation cow for a rally at Monze but the party turned the offer down; Sikota and Agency to sell the Luanshya mine to First Quantum Minerals, which his wife have been suspected of drug trafficking - they deny it and no has since bought the Nkana and Mufulira mines with the help of charges were laid, yet Mazoka is apparently careful to accept no Glencore International. money or gifts from them. Wina wants revenge on Chiluba, who The sale of non-core assets, such as farms, land and houses, was imprisoned Nakatindi for a year without trial following the abortive lambasted: ‘They [government and ZCCM] cannot verify what was coup attempt in 1998. Kavindele, too, may privately sympathise with owned, what has been sold to whom, using what process at what price the UPND and could yet stage a come-back. or on what payment terms. No monies from the sale of non-core assets by the GRZ/ZCCM privatisation negotiating team were remitted to SWAZILAND the Privatisation Revenue Account and no information is available on what was received, where it was paid or to whom.’ Parliament has rejected the report - after pressure, it is claimed, by senior government officials. High price of kingship The MMD has done poorly at recent by-elections, although its Politics get complicated when an absolute supporters dominate the electoral register, which has not been revised monarch changes his mind since the 1996 elections, when supporters of Kaunda’s United National Independence Party were urged to burn their cards. Out in the King Mswati III vies for the title of Africa’s last absolute monarch provinces, many people wonder when KK will come out of retirement. with Mohammed VI of Morocco. Mswati is the more absolutist But his old UNIP, deeply divided, is unlikely to win many seats under but his standing is falling so fast that some say the future of the Francis Nkhoma, whose leadership had been questioned since he monarch, and indeed the monarchy, is now at risk. The last cover took over eight months ago, particularly by die-hard UNIP supporters of the monthly The Nation pictured him with the question: ‘Your from Eastern Province. Majesty, do you really sleep easy?’ The 32-year-old King , after a There is a buzz that Nevers Mumba, President of the National reign of 14 years, is still popular and has dealt skilfully with trades Citizens’ Coalition, may try for the UNIP presidency at the party unionists and anti-monarchists. Nevertheless, political errors are congress on 28 December. This would mean merging Mumba’s NCC, fast weakening his position. essentially a Copperbelt party, with UNIP. Kitwe-based Mumba He upset even his core supporters, the chiefs and the rural would certainly do better than Nkoma or at least MMD strategists communities, by evicting two popular chiefs and replacing them think so: they see Mumba’s tele-evangelist persona and his base in the with his half-brother. He upset business and endangered Copperbelt as direct threats to ‘born-again’ Christian and ex-trades international trading links by backing new labour laws insisted union leader Chiluba. It wouldn’t take much to improve UNIP’s upon by traditionalists, even though employers and workers had standing: since its 1996 election boycott, it has lost members, money reached their own agreement. For the first time, people blame the and elections. King himself and not his advisors. The presidential hopefuls include Chiluba’s allies Tembo and Sata, Chiefs retain great powers, particularly over land allocation. along with the Education Minister, Brigadier . Such power has been conferred, by royal decree, on Prince Maguga, They remain coy, though, fearful of scuppering their chances and bank an influential member of the Standing Committee of the Swazi balances. Of the three, the cleverer choice may be Miyanda, who in National Council. The background is that the King’s grandfather 1996 was unceremoniously dumped by Chiluba as Vice-President in died before he could marry his Zulu fiancée, so his son Sobhuza 6 8 December 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 24

(Mswati’s respected father) inherited both the kingdom and the constitutional will be told to draw ideas from Uganda’s bride. The bride-price of 100 cattle was so high that two chiefdoms, ‘Movement system’, which allows political parties to exist but Macetjeni and kaMkwheli, had to pay it jointly. Then the Princess bans them from contesting elections or organising rallies. The gave birth to Maguga, Mswati’s half-brother - and Swazi law and reformers wpould not accept such a compromise. custom decree that when a queen bears a son, that son takes over Swaziland’s monarchy has made its first-ever U-turn on a major control of his area and existing chiefs become councillors policy issue and may also have to back-track on the chieftaincy subordinate to the Prince. Yet this didn’t happen: the chiefs and issue. The monarchy, on the defensive, is unwilling to surrender their successors consolidated their hold over the two chiefdoms. any part of its power. Behind it are the police, the army, thousands In 1997, King Mswati began his campaign to install Maguga in of traditional warriors and - the rural masses. both chiefdoms. The people wouldn’t accept him. The King The progressives’ trouble is that even the educated urban increased the pressure but opposition mounted. Last August, some population is not inspired, either by the political leaders - former 500 people demonstrated and houses belonging to the Prince were Prime Minister Obed Dlamini of the Ngwane National Liberatory burnt. There was a stormy national debate; in the Senate, opinions Congress and Mario Masuku, President of the People’s United were divided and cabinet ministers were called upon to defend the Democratic Party Movement (who is charged with sedition) - or by King’s position. Just before the chiefs were due to be evicted in the fiery Jan Sithole, Secretary General of the Swaziland Federation September, they took their case to the High Court, which is not of Trade Unions (who has just been under house arrest). There was supposed to delve into Swazi law and custom. little support in late November for protests against the chiefs’ The Chief Justice ruled that the chiefs could not be evicted until eviction. they had been allowed to present their case to the King; later, Some progressive members of the much criticised parliament presumably under pressure, the Chief Justice withdrew the ruling. were in Britain in late November, at the invitation of Her Majesty’s On the night of 13 October, the King acted. The army and police Government but against the wishes of His. They are likely to play forcibly removed the two chiefs and about 100 of their followers, an important part in working out the compromise that is vital if the several of whom fled to South Africa. Swazi monarchy is to reform and survive. The progressive forces, including the opposition parties (banned since 1973),had been waiting for an opportunity. On 5 November, after the government had banned all political meetings, some 800 MOZAMBIQUE progressives organised a rally in Nelspruit, across the border in South Africa. Their Nelspruit Declaration demanded that the chiefs be reinstated and a provisional government be set up, Carlos Cardoso pending democratic elections. The assassination of pioneering Mozambican journalist Carlos Cardoso The Prime Minister, Sibusiso Dlamini, promptly described in central on 22 November shows the growing threat to some of the Nelspruit resolutions as treasonable and tried to African reporters. Cardoso’s investigation into a US$15 million bank reintroduce the unpopular 60-day detention-without-trial order, fraud may have prompted his killing also sending a message to other which had been abandoned in the early 1990s. The progressives’ journalists to drop the story. Cardoso’s killing is reminiscent to that campaign of mass action involved a two day strike. Police road in January 1995 of Angolan journalist Ricardo de Mello who was blocks stopped protest marches. On 30 November, the women of also investigating a sensitive business story. Nigerian journalist Dele the chiefdoms gave Prince Maguga what they called ‘a present’: Giwa was killed by a parcel bomb in 1986. The killing of journalist some 50 of them appeared at his gate and removed their underwear. Nobert Zongo in 1998 sparked a political crisis in Burkina Faso. One said that as they hadn’t got guns, it was the only form of protest Compared to Latin America and Asia, journalists in Africa were available to them. less frequently targeted for assassination but were more likely to be A separate row threatened the economy. The traditional Swazi detained and tortured, as in Zimbabwe under Presidenr Robert National Council unwisely forced a reluctant parliament (the King Mugabe and Nigeria under General . But now journalists appoints a majority in the Senate) to amend the Industrial Relations have become targets for murder or arbitrary detention in countries in Act 2000 so as to make strikers responsible for any loss or damage conflict such as Sierra Leone, Congo-Kinshasa, Angola, Uganda caused by their actions. This is contrary to international labour law and Rwanda. and put Swaziland at odds with the United Nations’ International Labour Organisation (ILO). United States’ officials said that Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com unless the law was amended, Swaziland’s trading rights under the Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) would be jeopardised. 73 Farringdon Road, EC1M 3JQ, . Lutfo Dlamini, the Enterprise and Employment Minister, had to Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. explain himself to the ILO in Geneva. Prime Minister Sibusiso Administration: Clare Tauben. rushed to Washington, to plead with US authorities not to remove the crucial preferences giving Swaziland’s sugar some access to Annual subscriptions, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: UK: £278 Europe: £278 the US market. The Premier went again to Washington at the end Africa: £258 US:$697 (including Airmail) of November, and got the sugar preferences restored. Rest of the World: £361 Reform is far away. Two years late, the Constitutional Reform Students (with proof): £79 or US$126 Commission (CRC) has just completed its first report. However, All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. the King, in accordance with custom, is in seclusion and the report Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 will not be published until he can examine it early next year. We 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 hear that it does not outline a new constitution but merely records Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. the results of its lengthy and expensive consultations. Many believe ISSN 0044-6483

7 8 December 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 24

businessman Pierre Falcone. In 1999, the Compensation for war damage will be disputed. Pointers British-based non-governmental organisation And there is the ostensible cause of the war, the Global Witness claimed that in that period disputed border. French police had searched the premises of The fight may continue by other means: FRANCE/AFRICA Gaydamak and Falcone, in connection with the some in each government are keen to overthrow sale of Czech weapons by the Osos Praha the other’s government. Of the two leaders, Company via Falcone’s firm. GW said the Ethiopian Premier Meles Zenawi looks the more Presidential pranks Angolan contact was National Security Advisor secure, not least because of the divisions in the General Manuel Helda Vieira Dias ‘ Kopelipa’. Ethiopian opposition and the weight of a much France is rocked by scandals involving some On 30 September 1999, the Lettre du larger economy. Abroad, Eritrean President former key Africa policy-makers. Ex-Minister Continent reported a meeting at the Elysée of Issayas Afeworki is blamed for his bellicose of Cooperation for Development, Michel senior intelligence officers, diplomats and foreign policy and undemocratic rule. At home, Roussin, was let out after five nights in gaol on soldiers about the Franco-Russian deals. One he remains a symbol of the nation and a hero, 6 December on bail of 300,000 French francs difficulty was that the necessary payments would though he is being quietly challenged at home (US$40,000) while police recently searched the have flowed through, amongst others, the Bank and more publicly by intellectuals gathered in premises of Jean-Christophe Mitterrand, once of New York, accused by the United States the ‘Berlin group’. head of the Elysée Palace’s Africa ‘cell’, and Federal Bureau of Investigation of recycling During the war both Meles and Issayas cosied Africa veteran Charles Pasqua. Meanwhile, $10 billion of ‘disappearing’ Russian funds. up to their former enemy, the National Islamic as oil giant TotalFina tries to clean up the And the French bank Paribas had helped set up Front government in Sudan, the main spillage in Africa left by its recent acquisition, Falcon Oil, which has a stake in Angola’s beneficiary of the Eritrea-Ethiopia war. That Elf-Aquitaine, there is diplomatic concern about offshore Block 31. This Parisian mudslinging may change. Asmara and Addis Ababa will not the murder of a policeman investigating Elf in will continue to enliven preparations for the return to their former close collaboration but Taiwan. French presidential election in 2002. they do share a common concern about the NIF The French media say little about the Africa regime’s meddling (usually backing Islamist dimension. Few even mention Roussin’s role militias) in the internal affairs of regional ERITREA/ETHIOPIA as a colonel in the Direction Générale de la powers. Sécurité Etrangère (DGSE), once ubiquitous in Francophone Africa. Interest focusses on his role as key aide to Jacques Chirac (then Mayor Peace at last GUINEA BISSAU of Paris, now President) in the 1980s. Then, the Suspicion and mutual recriminations persist but Paris Mairie was deeply involved in Africa, a peace treaty is to be signed on 12 December. including the planned Trans-Africa Pipeline to It follows months of shuttling by Organisation Death of a veteran bring oil across Cameroon, Chad and Sudan. of African Unity and United States’ mediators, It seems that troops loyal to President Kumba Roussin is accused of organising illegal headed by Algerian State Minister of Justice Yala killed self-proclaimed Chief of Staff commissions in the 1980s-early 1990s on public Ahmed Ouyahia (recently replaced by Africa General Ansumane Mane in an ambush about works contracts to fund political parties, Minister Abdelkadir Messahel) and former 30 kilometres from the capital, Bissau, on 23 especially his (and Chirac’s) Rassemblement US National Security Council Director Anthony November. This should simplify Bissau politics, pour la République. Roussin now heads the Lake (AC Vol 41 No 13) in a close Algiers- and mark the end for the former ruling party, the Africa Committee of the employers’ federation, Washington collaboration. Forces of the United Partido Africano da Independência da Guiné e Medef, and is Vice-President of Bolloré, a group Nations Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea Cabo Verde (PAIGC). It will also be a blow to with Africa interests. (UNMEE) started deploying on 6 December. the Gambian-backed secessionists in Senegal’s Meanwhile, police investigating money- When the UN troops are fully deployed, Ethiopia Casamance region. laundering last month seized the accounts of will march its troops out of the undisputed areas In early 1998 the unpopular ex-President senior figures with African connections, of Eritrea that it has been occupying. These two João Bernardo ‘Nino’ Vieira tried to sack including ex-Interior Minister Pasqua and Jean- years of war have killed some 100,000 people. Mane as Chief of Staff. The result was a civil Charles Marchiani, ex-Prefect of the Var and The peace owes much to what is widely seen war from June 1998 to April 1999, Vieira’s kingpin of Pasqua’s Africa networks. (except by Asmara) as an Ethiopian victory. overthrow, and the election of Yala. As the On 1 December, they searched the records Neither side could afford the conflict but man who overthrew Vieira, Mane seemed a of two official witnesses in the money- Eritrea’s economy is particularly weak. The danger to any president. Yala’s election triumph laundering affair, the late President François country which fought so long for its came largely from the block vote of the southern Mitterrand’s son Jean-Christophe (widely independence and rejected foreign aid is now Balante people, who are well represented in the known as ‘Papa m’a dit’) and Jacques Attali, desperate for donor support. The Economic army - and Balante soldiers were decisive again a big spending former President of the European Recovery Programme announced on 5 December in Yala’s confrontation with Mane. Bank for Reconstruction and Development. costs US$ 287.7 million: no mention was made Mane, like most of his fellow-officers, was Pasqua, Marchiani and Mitterrand Junior of the nacfa, Eritrea’s new currency which for many years assumed to be arming the had all sorts of links to Africa and it’s not clear helped to trigger the war in 1998. Instead, the Mouvement des Forces Démocratiques de which are now under investigation. But the Finance Ministry spoke of working with ‘the Casamance rebels, who fight for the rumour-mill links the present inquiries to a World Bank and other partners’. It named the independence of Senegal’s southern Casamance previous investigation of Franco-Russian Bank, Italy, European Union, African province; that was why Vieira tried to dismiss businessman Arkadi Gaydamak which didn’t Development Bank, Denmark and France as him as Chief of Staff in 1998. But in the latest lead to any charges. If so, there is a smell of donors and appealed for the $30 mn. still fighting, the pro-Yala soldiers were supported Angolan oil in the air. missing. by members of the MFDC’s Léopold Sagna In July 1997, the Paris Africa newsletter La Donors insist on one condition: the war faction. Mane’s links had been with the pro- Lettre du Continent, followed by Francois- must not break out again. This could work out. Islamic Lamin Sadio faction of the MFDC, Xavier Verschaeve’s book La Francafrique, There may be squabbles about such issues as the also supported by Mane’s ally, President Yahya alleged that Marchiani and Pasqua were involved detention of each other’s nationals. Asmara Jammeh of Gambia. For this reason, few in in delivering Russian weapons to Angola. The says Addis Ababa holds 1,200 Eritreans; Addis President Abdoulaye Wade’s government in authors also implicated Brazilian-born says Asmara holds 7,000 Ethiopians. Dakar will mourn the passing of Mane. 8

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