CAMEROON Food Security Outlook February to September 2020 Food insecurity in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Anglophone regions despite average production
KEY MESSAGES
• Most poor households in the country are experiencing Minimal (IPC Current food security outcomes, February 2020 Phase 1) food insecurity, with stocks from their own production enabling them to maintain a typical diet until March. They will experience a typical lean season while awaiting an estimated average harvest in July. • However, in departments with high concentrations of internally displaced persons (IDPs) or refugees (Ouest and Adamaoua regions) and in the districts of the Extrême-Nord affected by flooding and Boko Haram looting, deteriorating food access and income will push poor households to adopt Stressed (IPC Phase 2) coping strategies between February and May. Between June and September, the first harvests will contribute to increased food consumption in the Ouest and Adamaoua regions; however, in the Extrême-Nord, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will continue throughout the period. • In the conflict-ridden Northwest and Southwest regions, early depletion of household stocks from February, limited access to fields, and lower purchasing power in the face of high prices in Source: FEWS NET urban centers will continue to expose disadvantaged households to FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity between February and follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. September. Continued conflict will result in a decline in household production and livelihoods for the fourth consecutive season. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR
Source: FEWS NET
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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook February to September 2020
NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current Situation Throughout the country’s various regions, the last agricultural season Projected food security outcomes, February to May saw average to above-average production levels except in the conflict- 2020 ridden Northwest and Southwest regions, and locally in the districts of the Extrême-Nord, which have been affected by flooding or Boko Haram looting and violence. Despite favorable agroclimatic conditions, the low level of prices recorded for certain crops over the past year has not encouraged large producers to maintain or increase their areas planted. For example, cowpea production in the department of Mayo-Danay has decreased by about 20 percent compared to last year, although it is still above the five-year average. In Adamaoua, maize production fell slightly compared to last year. In the department of Noun (Ouest region), problems with the supply of seeds from the Northwest led to a decline in potato production in 2019 compared with the previous year. Flooding of the Logone River in the Extrême-Nord in November 2019 affected more than 40,000 people and contributed to the reduction of areas for dry season crops, thus resulting in less production than last year. In the rest of the country, with the late end of the rains in November, Source: FEWS NET water sources are sufficient to enable successful dry season production Projected food security outcomes, June to of fruit, vegetables and irrigated rice. September 2020 The availability of fodder and water is adequate to ensure the normal physical condition of livestock and an estimated average dairy production between March and May 2020. However, insecurity in the Extrême-Nord and the conflict in the Anglophone regions have forced large-scale livestock farmers to migrate to safer areas in the Ouest and Adamoua regions. This could exacerbate conflict between farmers and herders in host areas due to increased competition for pasture and water resources. Poor households still have sufficient stocks from their own production to maintain a typical diet until March. As a result, they are seasonally less dependent on markets and markets are well supplied with staple foods, except for urban markets in the Northwest and Southwest regions. However, urban households still rely on markets to meet their food needs. Traders still have stocks from last season and are able to meet demand from industrial brewing and poultry production units without causing market failure. Following a reduction in outward flows Source: FEWS NET of livestock and agricultural products to Nigeria due to the conflict in the FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the west and Boko Haram violence in the north, the major urban centers in consensus of national food security partners. Douala and Yaoundé and neighboring countries (Chad, Central African Republic, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea) have become the main destinations. With supply exceeding demand, prices for agricultural products are generally below the levels seen last year and below the five-year average. For example, in the main markets of Extrême-Nord, sorghum prices (rainy and dry season) and maize prices in January were down from the five-year averages by 23 and 13 percent respectively. However, in the Ouest and Adamaoua, which host IDPs from the Northwest and Southwest regions, rising demand is leading to an increase in prices. For example, in the Banyo market in the department of Mayo-Banyo (where there are 6,301 IDPs), the maize price in December was 28 percent higher than in the previous year. In the department of Menoua, bean and potato prices increased by 19 and 33 percent, respectively, in December, compared with the previous year. In the department of Mbéré, where refugees from the
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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook February to September 2020
Central African Republic account for almost 19 percent of the population, maize and cassava prices rose in December by 20 and 25 percent, respectively, compared with the same period last year. Household incomes, which are mainly derived from the sale of agricultural products, are generally below-average due to lower prices. As a result of the good physical condition of animals and the availability of food stocks on the market, livestock farmers can negotiate prices on the markets. In the livestock markets of Maroua, Yagoua, Mokolo and Moulvoudaye, prices in January were up on average by 14 percent for bulls and 17 percent for rams and goats, compared with the same period in the previous year. Poor households can also rely on the sale of wild products and other forest products. However, because of the high transport costs resulting from the poor road conditions, buyers are not prepared to offer attractive prices. Other sources of income come from sales or labor associated with market gardening and fishing activities, operating motorcycle taxis in cities, small-scale trade in agricultural products and the sale of timber and charcoal. The country’s security situation remains a concern, particularly in the Extrême-Nord, which faces threats from Boko Haram, and in the Northwest and Southwest regions, where separatist armed groups oppose the army, erect road barriers and impose so-called “ghost town” days. While the overall number of security incidents fell by 15 percent compared with 2018, the security situation in the Extrême-Nord is nonetheless deteriorating in the departments of Mayo-Sava and Logone-et- Chari, with 166 and 40 incidents recorded in 2019, respectively, compared with 132 and 18 in 2018. Over the past two months, there has been a fresh upsurge in incursions by Boko Haram with kidnappings, suicide attacks and looting of property in three departments (Mayo-Sava, Mayo-Tsanaga and Logone-et-Chari). Updated statistics on displaced persons in January (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees – UNHCR) indicated that there were nearly 977,000 IDPs, with 70 percent as a result of the conflict in English-speaking areas and 30 percent due to Boko Haram. There were nearly 110,000 Nigerian refugees in the Extrême-Nord region and almost 272,000 refugees from the Central African Republic in the Adamaoua, Est and Nord regions. IDPs live with host families or independently within the community. Fifty-six percent of Nigerian refugees are at the Minawao site and 29 percent of refugees from Central African Republic are at various dedicated sites. Overall, the trend shows an increase in the number of IDPs and refugees, as the precarious security situation both within the country and in neighboring countries does not encourage significant returns. Thanks to stocks from their own production, along with the seasonal decline in market prices, most poor households in the country are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. However, populations that do not meet the 20 percent threshold for classification of the area, who have suffered from poor production and reduced purchasing power, are in a Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security phase. In the Extrême-Nord, the decline in dry season production due to flooding and to Boko Haram incursions has resulted in a Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity situation. Poor host households and IDPs in the Northwest and Southwest regions are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as a result of insecurity that is limiting agricultural activities and causing price increases in urban centers in the area. Assumptions The most likely food security scenario from February to September 2020 is based on the following underlying assumptions regarding trends in nationwide conditions: Rainfall: Seasonal forecasts available for February to April and April to June (North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), precipitation anomalies) indicate the arrival of rains and a near-average cumulative precipitation total. Pastoral situation: Current pasture and water levels are sufficient to sustain normal conditions for maintaining the physical condition of livestock and typical livestock movements. However, insecurity in the Extrême-Nord and conflicts in the English- speaking regions have forced large-scale livestock farmers to migrate to safer areas in the Ouest and Adamaoua regions. This poses the risk of increasing conflict between farmers and livestock farmers and is contributing to a reduction in the availability of food resources in these host areas during the dry period. However, this situation will improve between April and September with new pasture growth when the rainy season returns in March/April. Agricultural production: In all regions, market gardening and irrigation activities will continue as normal until April. Despite the late planting of dry season sorghum crops and the reduction of planting areas in the department of Logone-et-Chari, production expected in February and March should remain similar to the regional five-year average. The Ouest region could continue to benefit from the availability of labor due to the presence of IDPs, support for production and an increased share of exports (to the detriment of conflict zones) to Congo and Gabon to increase its production of tomatoes and beans. However, problems with the supply of potato seeds from the Northwest region could limit this production.
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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook February to September 2020
Production of products for export: With the ongoing conflict in Figure 1. Price projection for maize on the main market Anglophone regions, household access to fields will continue to be in Bamenda (XAF/18 kg) limited. In addition, the reduction of input subsidies by the 4,500 government and agro-industrial companies will contribute to 4,000 below-average national cocoa and palm oil production, since the 3,500 3,000 productive share of these regions was 70 and 47 percent, 2,500 respectively, in 2014, before the crisis. 2,000 1,500 Household stocks: At the national level, most poor households will 1,000 have average or above-average stocks from their own cereal 500 0 production. The exceptions include poor households in the Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Southwest and Northwest regions, and in districts of the Extrême- Nord affected by flooding and Boko Haram looting. 5-year average Previous year Observed Projected Market supplies of staple foods: Overall, cereal supplies will Price ceiling remain above average due to average to high production levels Source: FEWS NET and the fact that wholesale traders have carryover stocks. However, in urban centers in the Northwest and Southwest regions, difficulties in receiving supplies from production areas will keep stock levels lower.
Supply of livestock markets: With a typical lean season expected, households will not be forced to sell more animals. As a result, the supply of livestock will remain similar to the average.
Staple food prices: The current trend for below-average prices is set to continue until September. However, in urban centers in the Northwest and Southwest regions, and in departments hosting IDPs or refugees in areas of the Ouest (Menoua, Ndé, Noun) and Adamaoua (Mayo-Banyo and Mbéré) regions, the increase in demand will keep prices above average until September.
Livestock prices: With the increase in demand during Muslim festivals in June and July and the improvement in the physical condition of animals following new pasture growth, livestock prices will remain higher than last year. Therefore, given below- average prices of staple foods, the terms of trade are expected to be above-average and in livestock farmers’ favor.
Household income: Due to the high transport costs to reach producers, buyers offer them low prices. The trend of below- average prices will therefore result in below-average household incomes, despite the increase in production. The fall in prices for the second consecutive year could discourage large-scale producers and lead them to reduce the areas that they sow, thus reducing agricultural labor incomes during the coming season. However, poor households will be able to rely on the sale of forest products. Until September, the demand for timber and charcoal will remain higher than normal, especially in urban centers hosting displaced persons.
Displacement: Continued conflict in the English-speaking regions and the fresh upsurge in Boko Haram incursions in the Extrême-Nord will increase the number of IDPs and slow returns to areas of origin. There have been few repatriations of refugees from the Central African Republic over the past year and the risks of tension in connection with the elections scheduled for the end of the year in the Central African Republic are not conducive to voluntary returns during 2020.
Humanitarian assistance: Planned food assistance in the Extrême-Nord (food and cash) is expected to reach nearly 5 percent of the population between February and September. There were also plans to maintain assistance to refugees at the sites, but since the previous year, 80 percent of the basket has been covered. Plans for IDPs in the Northwest and Southwest regions are not yet available.
Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
Except for IDPs and poor households in conflict areas, most poor households in the various regions have stocks from their own production to maintain a normal diet and are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. However, poor households in most departments affected by declining production and income, comprising less than 20 percent of the population, will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the projection period. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4
CAMEROON Food Security Outlook February to September 2020
Between February and May, dry season production and below-average price levels will help encourage a typical diet during this period. As in a normal year, the lean season will occur between March and May in the Est, Adamaoua and Ouest, and between June and August in the Nord and Extrême-Nord regions. However, with the decline in income from the sale of agricultural products and wild products, purchasing power for imported food and non-food items (inputs and seeds) will be reduced. In departments where there are a lot of IDPs (Noun, Ndé and Menoua in the Ouest region) or refugees (Mbéré in Adamaoua) and the districts of the Extrême-Nord affected by flooding (Zina, Kai-Kai, Manga) and looting (Fotokol, Mayo- Moskota, Blangoua, Kolofata Mora, Mayo-Moskota), the deterioration in access to food and income will push poor households to adopt Stressed (IPC Phase 2) strategies, such as reducing the quantity of food and the number of meals consumed per day. Between June and September, with the exception of the Extrême-Nord and regions in conflict, the first season harvests are expected to help improve household consumption. However, in the Extrême-Nord, poor households will have to rely on livestock sales, timber and charcoal sales, income from small-scale trade and agricultural labor. With terms of trade in their favor and planned assistance, they will be able to maintain Stressed strategies until September and remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity. In the Northwest and Southwest regions described in more detail below, the early depletion of stocks will lead to a longer lean season between February and June (as opposed to March and May, as normal) pending an improvement with access to first season harvests in July. However, estimated below-average output of agricultural production, as well as rising market prices and declining purchasing power of poor households in urban centers in these regions will cause food insecurity to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until September. Events that Might Change the Outlook Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario Area Event Impact on food security outcomes National Irregular rains at the Irregular rains at the beginning of the season could lead to a reduction beginning of the season in the crops sown for the first season. It will also contribute to possible infestations of Fall Army Worm, which will reduce yields. Overall, harvests could be delayed until July and could be below average, thus causing the lean season to remain longer.
Areas with high Broader coverage of at This would help improve household food consumption and reduce concentrations of least 50 percent of food dependence on markets. This decline in demand would promote IDPs and refugees assistance in areas similar or below-average price levels and thus contribute to improving hosting IDPs and refugees household food access.
AREAS OF CONCERN
Northwest and Southwest regions, livelihood zone CM09 Current Situation Conflict in the Northwest and Southwest regions continues to prevent households from gaining access to their fields. Compared with a normal year, the beginning of the 2020 agricultural season has been limited in most localities in the region, where a series of “ghost town” days in February to boycott the elections exacerbated the security situation, further hindering work to prepare the fields, such as clearing and plowing. Field preparation work is under way for staple crops such as maize, potatoes and beans. Agricultural labor is atypically scarce despite a 40 to 50 percent increase in daily wages compared with a normal year, due to the high risk to workers. Owing to the displacement of the active population and the recruitment of young people into non- state armed groups, including the weak influx of seasonal workers from Nigeria due to a fear of kidnapping or death, the supply of agricultural labor is below average, especially in rural areas. In addition, roadblocks mean that agricultural tractors are unable to access farms, leading to low production in production areas (Bui, Mezam, Donga-Mantung, Momo and Menchum).
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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook February to September 2020
Livestock production is below normal, resulting in a 40 to 50 Figure 2. Livelihood zone 09 map, Northwest and Southwest percent decline in the availability of animal products such as meat regions and milk, which explains the closure of some livestock markets. This decline in livestock production is due to the atypical movement of herds toward the Adamaoua and Ouest regions to avoid theft, seizure of livestock and kidnapping of livestock farmers by non- state armed groups. The movement of livestock in these neighboring areas adversely affects herd productivity in these regions because of competition for resources such as pasture and water for the livestock. During this dry season, poor households that typically have between two and five cows cannot access greener pastures due to reduced access to valleys and plains, so cows are in poor physical condition. The supply of staple foods on the market is decreasing in line with seasonal patterns, although much less than in a normal year, Source: FEWS NET especially in urban markets. Trade flows between rural areas and urban markets are decreasing, as insecurity and roadblocks are preventing wholesalers from gaining access to rural production areas. The number of market days and access to markets are reduced because of the many “ghost town” days imposed on the population. Trade in locally produced staple foods such as maize from major production areas in Bui, Mezam and Donga-Mantung to the Southwest, Littoral and Centre regions and to the Central African Republic, Nigeria and Gabon is considerably reduced compared with a normal year. Since 2018, most rural markets have received a reduced supply of rice imported from Douala because of roadblocks and the destruction of transport trucks. Prices of staple foods in urban markets are higher than maize prices for the same period in a conflict-free year. The price of rice generally supplied by the port of Douala increased by 20 to 30 percent in urban centers in February, compared with the average price before the crisis. In urban centers where demand outstrips supply, average prices for staple foods in February are above their usual pre-crisis levels: on average 32 percent for maize, 40 percent for beans, 50 percent for potatoes, 44 percent for fish and 25 percent for palm oil. On the other hand, in the production areas of the departments of Ndop and Wum, maize prices fell by 25 and 12 percent, respectively, in February. Roadblocks are preventing traditional buyers from reaching these areas. Motorcycle traffic is sometimes banned and producers are often forced to transport their products on foot to reach accessible markets. Household income from small-scale employment and Figure 3. Trends in incidents and fatalities in 2019 in the agricultural and non-agricultural activities is currently below Northwest and Southwest regions the average normal household income. There are generally 150 fewer employment opportunities for poor households due to a restrained business climate resulting from the closure and 100 poor operation of most agro-industrial enterprises due to insecurity and the increased displacement of the active 50 population to other regions. Sales of agricultural products generally follow a seasonal weakness during this period, compared with the months following the harvest. Income 0 from poor households is currently below the average for a normal year because of low production last season and limited stocks, which were depleted more quickly, by Extreme-Nord Fatalites February compared with March/April in a normal year. These Nord-Ouest/Sud-Ouest Fatalites households, including those that sold their harvests earlier at Extreme-Nord Incidents Nord-Ouest/Sud-Ouest Incidents low prices to support their children’s schooling in crisis-free areas, are currently resorting to small-scale trade in non- Source: FEWS NET/Armed Conflict Location & Event Data agricultural products. Project (ACLED) data Income from the sale of major commercial crops such as coffee and cocoa is lower than normal because of poor production. Producers sell at prices 20 to 30 percent below official prices because of the difficulty in accessing market opportunities and cooperatives, as well as the poor quality of products resulting from the poor operation of processing plants. To the extent
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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook February to September 2020 possible, poor households are increasing their income alternately from the sale of firewood and charcoal, as well as from market gardening and small-scale poultry production. In January 2020, 8,036 households in the Northwest region received assistance in the form of support for agriculture and livelihoods according to the Food Security Cluster. As remittance services remain functional and more practical, some poor people are relying to a lesser extent on remittances from relatives in other cities outside the region and the diaspora. Generally, the income received by poor households is below the average for a normal year, which adversely affects their purchasing power in terms of access to basic needs and the purchase of agricultural inputs for the current growing season. Assistance is currently difficult to obtain in most remote areas. A number of humanitarian actors have received threats and some have recently been kidnapped by non-state armed groups that associate the identification of recipients with the drawing up of an electoral roll for the February elections. In January, food aid was provided to 20 percent and 3 percent of IDPs in the Northwest and Southwest regions, respectively, reaching less than 3 percent of the total population. Most of the poor host households and IDPs in the area are facing incomes below average due to fewer opportunities for agricultural labor, as well as the rising prices of staple foods in urban centers. In rural areas, agricultural activities are highly disrupted due to insecurity, and agricultural production is estimated to be below average. Households in this area are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity.
Assumptions: The most likely food security scenario in the area from February to September 2020 is based on the following specific assumptions:
• Crop production: With the ongoing conflict, roadblocks and “ghost town” days, household access to fields will be limited. Producers with limited purchasing power will find it difficult to access inputs and seeds. They will also receive less in subsidies from the government and cooperatives, whose services are closed or not operating. As a result, production in the first growing season, and probably in the second growing season beginning in August, will remain below the pre-crisis average. In addition, limited access to fields prevents crop maintenance, which will also contribute to reduced yields and harvest quality. Nevertheless, around more accessible cities where labor is available, market gardening production could be above average thanks also to support from partners.
• Market supply: lower than normal level of market supply. Given that market and household stocks generally continue to run out during the lean season, declining market supply and rising demand during the lean season will most likely keep prices above average until July, when new harvests are expected. However, after the harvest, it is expected that the supply of staple foods to the market will remain lower than before the crisis. Apart from the below-normal production expected during the next growing season due to the displacement of the agricultural population and reduced access to farms, including high input prices, roadblocks could continue to hinder market supplies from rural production areas to urban markets. In addition, the market supply of imported products, mainly rice, which accounts for 80 percent of the rice consumed by poor households, will remain low. As a result, prices will remain high for rice (17 to 58 percent increase in rural markets) and maize in urban markets. On the other hand, the prices of locally produced staple foods could continue to follow a downward trend as a result of market surpluses due to difficulties experienced by wholesale buyers in gaining access to rural markets. The supply of fish to the seaports of Limbé and Douala could continue to be affected by reduced access to the region, while the supply of meat remains low, with livestock remaining displaced to neighboring areas.
• Pastoral income/livestock production: Normal rainfall expected during the next growing season will promote an increase in pastureland and water resources for poor pastoral households who have not relocated their livestock to neighboring areas. However, livestock production will remain below normal due to difficulties with access to veterinary services and food supplements resulting from roadblocks and insecurity. In addition, livestock trade with Nigeria will remain below average due to border closures and fear of theft. As a result, pastoral households will continue to have below-normal incomes from livestock farming, and the pastoral communities that rely primarily on livestock to feed themselves and earn their incomes will be severely affected. This is particularly the case in the Mbororo community, where more than 50 percent of households no longer have access to milk and income from milk sales, either because livestock have been moved out of the area or because households have moved to urban areas where they cannot continue their pastoral activities. As the conflict persists, there will be little chance of herds returning from the Adamaoua and Ouest regions, where some livestock farmers have relocated their herds for security reasons. This can lead to competition over water and pasture resources for already vulnerable host communities and has the potential to start a pastoral conflict.
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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook February to September 2020
• Livelihood trends: Poor households that tend to derive income from agriculture either through the sale of agricultural products or through remunerated agricultural labor will continue to seek alternative sources of income, such as small-scale trade, including the sale of firewood or charcoal. However, it is expected that household income from commercial sales and food crops in the next season will continue to be lower than normal due to low harvests caused by reduced access to farms and agricultural inputs, and reduced access to market opportunities due to roadblocks. Moreover, since stocks are unusually running out earlier in the lean season, it is expected that poor households will be more dependent on market purchases, even where their purchasing power is set to remain low because household incomes remain below average.
• Staple food prices: The price of yellow maize in Bamenda rose from 3,000 in December to 3,500 in February and could continue to rise throughout the lean season. The new harvests in July are expected to fill food gaps thanks to automated production, but for shorter periods than in a normal year, as harvests are expected to be below average.
Most Likely Food Security Outcomes The food stocks of poor households, which generally last until April, are already almost exhausted due to low production in 2019, and poor households, especially those in urban centers and IDPs, have begun to buy food from markets. As purchasing power declines and prices rise, their access to food deteriorates. The continued decline in purchasing power will lead to an increase in the use of wild food between February and May. In addition, some displaced persons are in the bush in areas that are inaccessible to assistance. Food aid remained low in January, accounting for less than 3 percent of the population. In addition, data collected in February from focus groups indicate that more than 30 percent of households are adopting crisis strategies for access to food, the most common of which are reducing the amount of food consumed and the number of meals per day. Insecurity also affects the normal functioning of health centers. In the health districts of Bui, Oku and Kumbo, 23 to 65 percent of health centers are not operational (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), August 2019). This limits access to care. However, in October, acute malnutrition rates remained below the alert threshold (5.1 percent in the Northwest and 7.4 percent in the Southwest region). Poor households and IDPs remain vulnerable to acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) between February and May.
From June to September, although poor households will have more food that they have produced themselves as a result of the first harvest in July, some poor households will continue to use the market because of declining stocks. They will then continue to resort to harmful strategies such as consuming less preferred foods, reducing the quantities consumed and cutting the number of meals taken per day. This will lead to a deterioration in their food consumption. In addition to the conflict, the deterioration of roads during the intense rainy season could hinder regular assistance to households in remote areas. Revenue generated from the sale of charcoal, market gardening and foreign transfers will not be sufficient to make up for the loss of earnings from the sale of food and market products. The deterioration in food consumption and livelihoods and limited access to health care could negatively affect nutritional status, especially for children, pregnant women and nursing mothers. As a result, the prevalence of malnutrition could increase throughout the projection period compared with levels seen in October 2019. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity could persist throughout the period.
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CAMEROON Food Security Outlook February to September 2020
Events that Might Change the Outlook Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario Area Event Impact on food security outcomes This will enable: - The return of IDPs to their places of origin - Increasing agricultural and livestock production through Conflict resolution improved access to farms, agricultural inputs and Northwest and extension/veterinary services. This will also lead to an Southwest increase in food supplies and a drop in prices. - Increased trade flows to regional and national markets and, therefore, higher agricultural income for poor households. An increase in humanitarian food Increased food assistance will contribute to improved access aid to food for displaced and affected communities. Pastoral conflict between the livestock farmers of the Escalating violence, which could potentially lead to the forced Northwest region and those in return of livestock farmers, including the destruction and host communities in the Ouest abandonment of their livestock and livestock farming and Adamaoua regions due to Northwest activities. increased competition for pasture and water resources Opening of Nigeria–Cameroon Increasing trade flows to regional and national markets and borders therefore higher agricultural income for poor households.
ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.
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