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The Ohio3 & Lake Erie Regional Rail Ohio Hub Study Draft Technical Memorandum And Business Plan Prepared for: The Ohio Rail Development Commission and the Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania Departments of Transportation Prepared by: Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. and HNTB, Inc. October 2004 The Ohio and Lake Erie Regional Rail - Ohio Hub Study Draft Business Plan and Technical Memorandum 10/04 Table of Contents Foreword by James E. Seney Acknowledgements Executive Summary 1. Introduction 1.1. System Planning and Feasibility Goals and Objectives 1.2. Business Planning Objectives 1.3. Study Approach and Methodology 1.4. Railroad Infrastructure Analysis 1.5. Operations Analysis 1.6. The Demand Model and Ridership and Revenue Forecasts 1.7. Financial and Economic Forecasts 1.8. Sponsorship and Funding 2. Engineering Assessment and Capital Cost Estimates 2.1. Engineering Assessment Process 2.2. Cost Estimate Assumptions and Definitions 2.3. Infrastructure Improvement Costs 2.3.1. Infrastructure Improvement Categories and Unit Costs 2.3.2. Contingencies 2.3.3. Placeholders 2.4. Infrastructure Improvement Costs by Corridor and Route Segment 2.5. Cleveland-Pittsburgh via Youngstown Segment 1: Cleveland-Ravenna Segment 2: Ravenna-Warren Segment 3: Warren-Youngstown Segment 4: Youngstown-New Castle Segment 5: New Castle-Pittsburgh Cleveland-Pittsburgh via Youngstown Capital Cost Summary 2.6. Cleveland-Pittsburgh via Alliance Segment 1: Cleveland-Ravenna Segment 2: Ravenna-Alliance Segment 3: Alliance-Beaver Falls Segment 4: Beaver Falls-Pittsburgh Cleveland-Pittsburgh via Alliance Capital Cost Summary 2.7. Cleveland-Toledo-Detroit via Wyandotte Segment 1: Cleveland-Berea Segment 2: Berea-Toledo Segment 3: Toledo-Vienna Junction Segment 4: Vienna Junction-West Detroit Segment 5: West Detroit-Detroit Cleveland-Toledo-Detroit via Wyandotte Capital Cost Summary 2.8. Cleveland-Toledo-Detroit via Detroit Metro Airport Segment 1: Cleveland-Berea Segment 2: Berea-Toledo Segment 3: Toledo-CP Alexis Segment 4: CP Alexis-Wayne Junction Table of Contents i The Ohio and Lake Erie Regional Rail - Ohio Hub Study Draft Business Plan and Technical Memorandum 10/04 Segment 5: Wayne Junction-Detroit Cleveland-Toledo-Detroit via Detroit Airport Capital Cost Summary 2.9. Cleveland-Buffalo- Niagara Falls-Toronto Segment 1: Cleveland-Erie Segment 2: Erie-Buffalo Segment 3: Buffalo-Niagara Falls Segment 4: Niagara Falls-Toronto Cleveland-Buffalo-Niagara Falls-Toronto Capital Cost Summary 2.10. Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati (3-C Corridor) Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati Capital Cost Summary 2.11. Capital Cost Sharing Among Overlapping Route Segments 2.11.1. Stand-Alone Cost Sharing Allocation Scenarios 2.11.2. Capital Cost Allocation for Cleveland-Toledo-Detroit 2.11.3. Capital Cost Allocation for Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati 2.11.4. Allocation Results and Total Corridor Capital Costs 2.12. Allocation of Costs for Train Service and an Inspection Facility 2.13. Costs for Rolling Stock 2.14. Costs for Access to Railroad Rights-Of-Way 2.15. Total Corridor Costs for Infrastructure, Equipment, and Right-Of-Way 2.16. Total System Capital Costs 2.17. Capital Cost Observations 2.18. Start-Up Service Capital Costs 3. Operating Strategies, Station Locations and Fleet Requirements 3.1. Service and Operating Assumptions 3.1.1. Corridor-Specific Operating Assumptions Cleveland-Pittsburgh Corridor Cleveland-Detroit-Corridor Cleveland-Buffalo-Toronto Corridor Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati Corridor 3.2. Potential Station Locations 3.3. Train Technology Assumptions 3.3.1. Train Consist Assumption 3.3.2. Other General Rolling Stock Service and Operational Requirements 3.4. Operating Plans and Train Performance 3.5. Operating Plans and Fleet Size Requirements 4. Travel Demand and Forecasting 4.1. The Zone System 4.2. Stated Preference Survey 4.2.1. Survey Methodology 4.2.2. Survey Implementation 4.2.3. Survey Demographic Characteristics 4.2.4. Comparison with Other Studies 4.3. Socioeconomic Data 4.4. Origin-Destination Data 4.4.1. Air Mode 4.4.2. Auto Mode 4.4.3. Rail Mode 4.4.4. Bus Mode 4.4.5. Base Origin-Destination Data Summary 4.5. The Networks 4.5.1. Feeder Bus Network Table of Contents ii The Ohio and Lake Erie Regional Rail - Ohio Hub Study Draft Business Plan and Technical Memorandum 10/04 5. Ridership and Revenue Forecasts 5.1. Regional Rail System Connectivity 5.2. Midwest Regional Rail System 5.3. Keystone and Empire High-Speed Corridors 5.4. VIA Rail Canada 5.5. Impact of Feeder Buses to the Ohio Hub System 5.6. Ridership and Revenue Forecast Results 5.7. Station Volumes 5.8. Passenger Fare Assumptions 5.9. System Demand Analysis in Detail 5.9.1. Trip Distribution by Trip Characteristics 5.9.2. Trip Purpose Breakdown and Toledo-Detroit Segment Analysis 5.9.3. Modal Split 5.10. Ancillary Revenues and Total Operating Revenues Onboard Services Feeder Bus Same-day Parcel 6. Operating Costs 6.1. Fixed Costs 6.1.1. Track and Right-of-Way Costs Track Maintenance Costs Dispatching Costs and Out-of-Pocket Reimbursement Costs for Access to Track and Right-of-Way Segment-Specific Assumptions Station Operations 6.1.2. Feeder Bus Cost 6.1.3. Service Administration 6.1.4. Sales and Marketing 6.2. Variable Costs 6.2.1. Insurance Costs 6.2.2. Operator Profit 6.2.3. Train Equipment Maintenance 6.2.4. Train and Engine Crew Costs 6.2.5. Fuel and Energy 6.2.6. Onboard Services (OBS) 7. Implementation Plan 7.1. Implementation Approach 7.2. Implementation Phase Development 7.2.1. Description of Implementation Plan by Services Offered 7.3. Description of Implementation Phases 8. Financial Analysis 8.1. Financial Performance Measures (2015 and 2025) 8.2. Overall Costs and Operating Results 8.3. Selection of Preferred Option for Financial Assessment 8.4. Corridor Operating Performance Summaries 8.5. Financial Analysis of Project Lifecycle Costs and Revenues 8.6. Results of the Analysis of Lifecycle Costs and Revenues 8.7. Project Financing Assumptions 8.8. Analysis of Potential Project Financing and Cash Flow Table of Contents iii The Ohio and Lake Erie Regional Rail - Ohio Hub Study Draft Business Plan and Technical Memorandum 10/04 9. Economic Benefits Analysis 9.1. Economic Analysis Methodology 9.1.1. User Benefits 9.1.2. Types of Costs 9.1.3. Measures of Economic Benefit 9.1.4. Results 9.2. Community Benefits Analysis 9.2.1. Economic Impact Estimates 10. Funding Alternatives 10.1. Federal Funding Program 10.1.1. Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 10.1.2. Swift Rail Development Act 10.1.3. Transportation infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act of 1997 10.2. States and Local Financing 10.2.1. Government Loans and Infrastructure Banks 10.2.2. Delayed State/Local Match 10.2.3. Ohio Grade Separation Program 10.3. Local Funding 10.4. Private Sector Contributions 10.4.1. Joint Development 10.4.2. Freight Railroads 10.5. Dept Financing 10.5.1. Bond Issuance 10.5.2. Grant Anticipation Notes 10.5.3. Leasing 10.6. Summary 11. Summary of Institutional Framework Alternatives 11.1. Institutional Agreement Framework 11.1.1. Guiding Principle in Selecting Institutional Arrangements 11.1.2. Multi-State Participation Activities 11.2. Multi-State/Agency Participation Institutional Framework 11.3. Summary 11.4. Allocation of Costs and Revenues 12. Summary, Conclusions and Next Steps 12.1. Study Summary 12.1.1. Improved Regional and National Mobility and Connectivity 12.1.2. Proposed Implementation Plan 12.1.3. Environmental and Economic Benefits 12.1.4. Challenges 12.2. Study Conclusions and Key Findings 12.3. Suggested Next Steps 12.3.1. Alternative Route Analysis Under a Tier 1 PEIS Appendix Zone Description and Networks Origin and Destination Data and Socioeconomic Data TEMS Compass Model and Sample Survey Form Cash Flow Analysis and Sources and Uses of Funds Infrastructure Cost Estimates and Track Maintenance Cost Methodology Train Timetables (Appendices are available upon request. Please call ORDC at 614-644-0306) Table of Contents iv The Ohio and Lake Erie Regional Rail - Ohio Hub Study Draft Business Plan and Technical Memorandum 10/04 Exhibits 1. Introduction Exhibit 1-1: Regional Rail Corridor Connection to the Ohio Hub System Exhibit 1-2: Interactive Analysis Methodology Exhibit 1-3: Study Corridors and Alternative Routes 2. Engineering Assessment and Capital Cost Estimates Exhibit 2-1: Engineering Project Development Phases and Levels of Accuracy Exhibit 2-2: Infrastructure Unit Costs Exhibit 2-3: Cleveland-Pittsburgh via Youngstown Route Segments Exhibit 2-4: Cleveland-Pittsburgh via Youngstown Route Segments Exhibit 2-5: Segment 1 – Cleveland-Ravenna Costs Exhibit 2-6: Segment 2 – Ravenna-Warren Costs Exhibit 2-7: Segment 3 – Warren-Youngstown Costs Exhibit 2-8: Segment 4 – Youngstown-New Castle Costs Exhibit 2-9: Segment 5 – New Castle-Pittsburgh Costs Exhibit 2-10: Cleveland-Pittsburgh via Youngstown Capital Cost Summary Exhibit 2-11: Cleveland-Pittsburgh via Alliance Exhibit 2-12: Cleveland-Pittsburgh via Alliance Route Segments Exhibit 2-13: Segment 1 – Cleveland-Ravenna Costs Exhibit 2-14: Segment 2 – Ravenna-Alliance Costs Exhibit 2-15: Segment 3 – Alliance-Beaver Falls Costs Exhibit 2-16: Segment 4 – Beaver Falls-Pittsburgh Costs Exhibit 2-17: Cleveland-Pittsburgh via Alliance Capital Cost Summary Exhibit 2-18: Cleveland-Detroit via Wyandotte Route Segments Exhibit 2-19: Toledo-Detroit via Wyandotte Exhibit 2-20: Segment 1 – Cleveland-Berea Costs Exhibit 2-21: Segment 2 – Berea-Toledo Costs Exhibit 2-22: Segment 3 – Toledo-Vienna Junction
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