HAITI October 9, 2018 Supply and Market Outlook
KEY MESSAGES
The 2018/2019 cereal production (rice, Figure 1. Cereal production (maize, rice, sorghum) in Haiti (MT) maize and sorghum) estimates for Haiti point toward an increase that is marginally above the 5-year average. This slight rebound will be due to increased production of sorghum and rice, primarily in the Artibonite region, which supplies about 89 percent of annual production (Figure 1). Total cereal supply (production and net import) is expected to fall relative to the previous marketing year levels owing to lower rice and maize imports. Market supply for imported cereals, particularly for rice, will nonetheless remain adequate as this decline is less significant Source: FEWS NET estimates based on data from Coordination Nationale de la Securite relative to five year average levels. Alimentaire (CNSA) and the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development (MARNDR), (2018). Local markets will therefore be well supplied. The cereal deficit will be low compared to the average. The Gonaïves market in Artibonite will have a substantial food surplus due to an increase in rice and sorghum production. Other regions within the country will have to import cereals to cover their cereal needs. Imported rice prices are expected to remain stable, with slight fluctuations between November 2018 and May 2019. Imported rice prices will remain above the five year average levels partly owing to currency depreciation. Local rice (TCS 10) prices will ease through November 2018, after which they will begin to increase again. While local rice (TCS 10) prices are not expected to reach the levels observed in July and August 2018, they will remain significantly above the 5-year average. The uncertainty fueled by tensions within the PetroCaribe alliance will continue to weaken socio-political stability and increase the risk of riots, which could jeopardize the stability of staple food markets.
ABOUT THIS REPORT The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food supply and price trends in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Supply and Market Outlook report provides a summary of staple food availability, surpluses and deficits during the current marketing year, projected price behavior, implications for local and regional commodity procurement, and essential market monitoring indicators. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, national ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, regional organizations, and others for their assistance in providing the harvest estimates, commodity balance sheets, as well as trade and price data used in this report. For more information on typical market conditions for staple foods in Haiti, readers are invited to consult the following report: Haiti Staple Food Market Fundamentals.
FEWS NET Haiti FEWS NET is an activity funded by USAID. The contents of the report do not [email protected] necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International www.fews.net/haiti Development or the United States Government.
HAITI SUPPLY AND MARKET OUTLOOK October 2018
Current situation 2018/19 agricultural production
The 2018/2019 cereal production was only Figure 2. Rainfall and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) slightly above average owing to El Niño January – August 2018, compared to average related adverse weather conditions and the residual effects of shocks from 2016/2017. The spring 2018 growing season started well, with rains in April and May but climatic anomalies in June disrupted normal crop development. As this occurred at a critical time for crop development, particularly maize, which were in the flowering stage, it caused significant crop damage. However, the crops that were planted in March benefited from the rainfall in April and May and had a good yield (Figure 2). The situation was slightly different in irrigated plains, where maize and rice were Source: Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping – World Food Programme (VAM- WFP)/Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station successfully harvested, and in the humid (CHIRPS)/Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) mountain areas, where plants were able to develop normally due to adequate soil Figure 3. Aggregate self-sufficiency levels for local maize, sorghum and rice (%) moisture. In these areas the drought occurred after the harvest had already taken place (April-June). This situation did not have a significant impact on sorghum, as it is a drought-resilient crop. Sorghum crops were mainly affected by a pest that destroyed plants set up as part of an experiment by the Ministry of Agriculture involving a new variety with a shorter growing cycle (three months). Overall cereal production (local rice, maize and sorghum) in Haiti for 2018/2019 is expected to increase by approximately eight percent from 2017/2018 levels owing to gains in rice and sorghum production (Figure 1 and Source: FEWS NET estimates based on data from the Coordination Nationale de la 3). The cumulative production level will be Securite Alimentaire (CNSA) and the Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and marginally above average. Rural Development (MARNDR), (2018). Maize production and imports The main maize harvest produced mixed result with overall production trending towards a decline for the 2018/19 marketing year. This can be attributed to poor harvests in production areas severely affected by drought, such as the Artibonite region (excluding irrigated areas) and the Centre region, which accounts for about 34 percent of annual production. These two departments recorded losses of around 11 percent and 13 percent respectively over the same period. Maize production was good in the Sud, Nippes and Grand-Anse regions, with increases of 49 percent, 19 percent and 17 percent respectively, as these areas were less affected by drought (Table 2 in the Annex). Overall production was not sufficient to compensate for losses in comparison to the 5-year average as estimated output is expected to fall by more than 13 percent. The gap appears to be most significant in the Sud, Nord-Ouest, Nord, Nippes, Grande-Anse and Artibonite departments, with decreases of 24 percent, 21 percent, 20 percent, 16 percent 16 percent, 15 percent and 12 percent respectively.1
1 Despite improvements in year-on-year performance Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2
HAITI SUPPLY AND MARKET OUTLOOK October 2018
Following a peak in 2016/2017, maize imports will likely decrease in 2018/2019 to an estimated 69,000 MT, which is below 2017/18 levels. Imports will nevertheless remain significant and very close to import volumes for 2015/2016. However, maize imports have stayed at the same level as the 5-year average. This suggests that imports can be used to compensate for the decline in domestic production during the reporting period.
Rice production and imports Rice production estimates for 2018/2019 are expected to increase from 2017/2018 levels owing to significant production gains in rice-growing areas. The exception was Nippes, which experienced a 25 percent decrease over the same period. The Artibonite region, which accounts for approximately 89 percent of production, showed a growth of 17 percent. The rice sector has been growing since 2015/16 (Figure 1) from concerted efforts that have been made to increase production. Artibonite was the first department to benefit from the Government's ‘Caravan of Change’ strategy due to its potential in rice production. The cleaning of irrigation canals and installation of processing infrastructure incentivized greater production over the past two years. Rice production similarly increased significantly in other producing regions, particularly in the Nord and Sud departments, which recorded 56 and 46 percent growth respectively from previous year levels. In Nord-Est, rice production increased by 24 percent during the same period after accounting for hurricane Irma and drought related losses. Overall rice production will likely exceed the 5-year average by over 62 percent. The most significant increase is expected in Artibonite (+63 percent), Nord (+69 percent), Nippes and Sud (+58 percent), and Nord-Est (+55 percent) despite visible residual effects of hurricane Irma and the drought in 2017/2018 (Table 1 in the Annex). Rice imports may well fall by 25 percent in 2018/2019 compared to 2017/2018, and could possibly fall below the 5- year average. Such behavior cannot be attributed to the increase in national rice production, which is still largely insufficient to cover local consumption (about 20 percent). Rather, two reasons seem to be driving this: strong competition from the introduction of new seed varieties and market players, as well as rising import costs from higher international rice prices and exchange rate depreciation (gourde/dollar and gourde/peso). Under these conditions, importers will have very little influence on prices, either fixed or determined by the market. This situation will likely persist until the economic situation improves given Haiti’s large deficit in rice production, and in spite of the recent revival in rice production. Sorghum production Following several years of atypical decline (2016/2017 and 2017/2018),2 production of sorghum is expected to recover in 2018/2019, with an estimated 17 percent growth from 2017/2018 levels. This is due to good harvests in Artibonite, Centre, Sud-Est and Sud, where production increases of 93 percent and over 100 percent were recorded, and in the Nord-Ouest department with an increase of 22 percent following the distribution of a non-photoperiodic and aphid-resistant seed variety to farmers by the Ministry of Agriculture (Table 3 in the Annex). Despite the expected high overall production for 2018/2019, growth will likely contract in the departments of Ouest and Nippes (10 percent and 35 percent respectively) over the same reference period.
The anticipated 2018/2019 rebound will not be sufficient to push production above the 5-year average. Overall sorghum production will remain approximately 59 percent below the 5-year average; particularly in the major production areas, where the average decline is between 46 and 76 percent. This decline is largely due to aphid infestations that have destroyed entire plantations.
2Negative growth rates ranging from 24 percent to over 68 percent were observed from 2015 to 2018, most notably in production areas such as Artibonite, Ouest and Centre. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3
HAITI SUPPLY AND MARKET OUTLOOK October 2018
Market and price trends
The current macroeconomic condition in Haiti Figure 4. Depreciation of the gourde/USD and gourde/Dominican peso is characterized by persistent inflationary exchange rates (%) pressures (13 percent on an annual basis) (Bank of the Republic of Haiti, Monetary Policy Note, June 2018). Additionally, the national currency continues to weaken against the US dollar and the Dominican peso (Figure 4). As of August 2018, more than 70 gourdes were needed to buy one United States dollar. This has consequences for prices of imported goods and services given the high degree of openness of the Haitian economy. Importers typically peg their prices to the exchange rate in order to guard against foreign exchange risk and to avoid loss of income. The result has been very high Note: Comparisons are only for the January to August period in each year. imported food prices in various local markets, particularly for rice. Source: FEWS NET estimates from OANDA data, August 2018. Figure 5. Local maize production (‘000 MT) and price (HTG/6lbs) map Current price trends Price of most local and imported staple foods have shown an upward trend since the beginning of 2018. Local maize prices began falling in May 2018 and have since continued easing. Imported rice prices have continued to increase as the dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market. Nationally, the average price of local maize showed relative stability between June and July, and fell by more than 5 percent between July and August. On the other hand, the price of imported rice continues to edge upward, with an average growth of 4.3 percent in July compared with 7 percent in June and a modest growth between July and August (less than 3 percent). Source: FEWS NET estimates based on FEWS NET, CNSA and MARNDR data Prices remain significantly above their 5-year (2018). average, particularly in Ouest (Port-au- Prince), Sud-Est and Centre (Hinche) where they are in excess of 15 percent, in part due to the poor July harvests and the start of summer/fall planting in these areas, particularly for maize (Figure 5). The price of maize is closer to average in areas where some harvest is ongoing within Sud, Nord, Nord-Ouest, Artibonite and particularly in the Nord region (Cap Haïtien). Nationally, local white rice (TCS variety) was available in all monitored markets, and was being sold at prices well above the 5-year average (Figure 6), even in surplus producing areas. Such a pattern appears to be attributable to high demand for this product and the high production costs of this cereal; high fertilizer prices, very limited availability of labor.
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HAITI SUPPLY AND MARKET OUTLOOK October 2018
Imported rice prices remain above previous Figure 6. Local rice (TCS 10) production (‘000 MT) and price year and 5-year average levels across all (HTG/6lbs) map markets (particularly Ouanaminthe and Jacmel). This is partly due to a depreciating national currency and an increase in global rice prices during the first half of 2018. Moreover, sociopolitical instability that brought about the riots in July had an impact on the smooth functioning of regional markets in terms of the movement of products and market actors. Nationally, the average price of sorghum is well above average (over 15 percent above the 5-year average), even in surplus producing areas like Artibonite and Ouest (Figure 7). In terms of the cereal market and price outlook for 2018/2019, three regional markets will be most important for Source: FEWS NET estimates based on FEWS NET, CNSA and MARNDR data (2018). understanding overall market supply and functioning. They are the Hinche, Port-au- Figure 7. Sorghum production (‘000 MT) and prices (HTG/6lbs) map. Prince and Gonaïves markets. The cereals in question are maize, sorghum, local TCS rice and imported rice. The market in Hinche is supplied with maize on a seasonal basis, typically during harvest periods, and particularly in June and July. Currently, the availability of this product is decreasing as a result of spring harvest losses and preparation for the summer/fall planting season in various communes including Maïssade, Thomonde, Hinche, Cerca Cavajal, Mirebalais, Belladère and Lascahobas. The price of local maize on this market, however, remains stable, despite the atypical decrease observed in August (Figure 10). Maize was traded for an average of 60 gourdes per 6-
pounds in June and July, compared with 69 Source: FEWS NET estimates based on FEWS NET, CNSA and MARNDR data gourdes in April and May. This is almost the (2018). same as last year’s price, but is lower than the 5-year average; suggesting improved access for this product in this market, despite weak harvests. The presence of imported maize from the United States (Alberto), the Dominican Republic (Gradoro), among others, and the preference of individuals for green maize, may have contributed to maintaining this trend. The price of imported rice was mixed in the Port-au-Prince market. The market remains well supplied due to the availability of several varieties such as Bull, Bongu, Mega, Tchako, etc. This ensures a certain degree of price stability, which, nonetheless, remains above the 5-year average. Thus, since April, the price of imported rice has remained around 175 gourdes per 6-pounds (Figure 8). On the other hand, the annual price increase (June 2017/2018), compared to the average (June 2014/2018), was significantly higher, at 14 percent and 15 percent, respectively. Moreover, the market is yet to be affected by any major disruptions and is thus operating normally. The Gonaïves market is supplied with sorghum from the semi-arid communes and mountains of Haut Artibonite. Production has increased compared to last year. However, with the increase in demand for use in the manufacture of Malta and beer, the price of sorghum has maintained an upward trajectory; rising from 117.5 gourdes/6-pound in March 2017 to 190 gourdes/6-pound in April of the same year (an increase of 48 percent). Though the price fell Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5
HAITI SUPPLY AND MARKET OUTLOOK October 2018
in June and was followed by slight downward trend through October 2017, it started to increase again and reached 200 gourdes in November 2017. It hovered around this price until June 2018 before declining slightly in July 2018 a result of harvests in producing communes. The current price is still above last year's average, and is significantly above the 5-year average (Figure 7). Even with increasing demand, the root cause of this price volatility are the losses experienced in various areas of production over the past three years. The market for Gonaïves is also well supplied with local rice (TCS-10) and its self-sufficiency ratio for this product exceeds 300 percent in 2018/2019 (Table 1 in the Annex). With three seasons, and thus three harvests in a year, the market is constantly supplied with local rice, except in years of bad harvests or major supply shocks. Demand for this cereal remains strong, both from those living in Artibonite and from other parts of the country, due to the perception that it is of better quality than imported rice. Hence, it holds its own against the various imported varieties, particularly those from the United States of America. Thus, although it remains relatively stable, from January to June 2018, the typically high price of TCS, even during harvest periods, puts it alongside the most expensive rice varieties in Haiti, such as Shella, Shelda, La crête, etc. Atypical price increase was observed in recent months, from 200 gourdes in June to 232 gourdes in July, and again to 240 gourdes in August (Figure 9). TCS 10 prices rose respectively by 13 percent and 22 percent year-on-year (June 2017/June 2018) and relative to the 5-year average.
Projected cereal (rice, maize, sorghum) market trends Seasonal forecasts Seasonal forecasts from USGS and other meteorological institutes (NOAA, CARICOF, etc.), point to El Niño conditions in the Atlantic basin that indicate below average rainfall levels. Weather forecasts also indicate the persistence of El Niño through March-May 2019, which could delay the start of the rainy season in 2019. The sorghum plantations, which will complete their growth cycle in December and January, are growing normally given their drought-resilient nature. However, the risk of being attacked by aphids remains high, except in the case of the non-photoperiodic (shorter cycle) and aphid-resistant varieties. Rice harvests are under way in Artibonite and transplanting operations in Nord-Est and other regions are expected to lead to near normal production in rice-growing areas, except in Nord-Est. The winter season is also expected to experience below average rain, but the regularity of rainfall will result in average or near average results. Production and supply outlook Market supply is expected to be normal, but the availability of local products will be reduced, particularly from April 2019 when the lean season begins and stocks are exhausted. Harvest activities in the irrigated plains will be completed in March, just before soil preparation and planting begins for the 2019 spring season across the country. Imported staples will play an important role in overall food supply during this time as local staple food supply becomes more constrained. The food balance will continue to be in deficit and prices of local staples, in particular maize and TCS rice, may increase further and remain well above the 5-year average. On the other hand, the prices of imported food will remain high, albeit at relatively stable levels. Haiti is anticipating an aggregate cereal deficit in the 2018/2019 marketing year. In the previous year, however, the country had a positive cereal balance (almost 125,000 metric tons), which was sustained from imports and rice production at the national level. Rice was the only cereal in surplus on the market during both periods (2017/2018- 2018/2019), in spite of the decrease in 2018/19 supply (-56.5 percent). The 2018/19 cereal supply (local production and net imports) is expected to fall marginally from 5-year average levels but will be significantly below previous year levels i.e. nearly 14 percent. This trend can be attributed to the annual decrease in imports for maize and rice, which are respectively expected to experience a zero and negative growth (-4 percent) relative to the average. The increase, albeit moderate, in cereal production (and rice in particular), during the reference period, in the context of reduced imports, seems to be the cause of the decrease in the cereal deficit during the marketing year. It should be noted that rice is the only product for which not only the food balance is positive but also the food balance Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6
HAITI SUPPLY AND MARKET OUTLOOK October 2018
is in surplus, from 2017/18 to 2018/2019. However, since the domestic cereal supply is well below the average and sustained with imports, the self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) remains low, although it increased in 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 (or annually by 42 percent and 45 percent respectively) and for each cereal (Tables 1-3 in the Annex). It is worth noting that, with the decline in local maize supply relative to previous year and average levels, the food balance is becoming negative, underscoring the country’s maize deficit. Nationally, only the department of Artibonite is fully self-sufficient in terms of its grain supply. For example, in 2018/2019, SSRs in maize and sorghum exceed 200 percent, for three consecutive years, particularly for maize. In the case of rice, this rate is even higher than 300 percent. The Centre department is self-sufficient, and even has a large maize surplus (SSRs greater than 100 percent); but it needs to fill the deficit for the other two cereals through imports. The Sud also had a self-sufficiency rate of over 100 percent in maize, after two successive years of large deficits. The other seven departments have to import to a significant extent in order to meet their cereal requirements. The Nord, Nord-Est, Ouest and Sud-Est departments all have the highest maize deficit levels and also the lowest SSRs in cereals. For rice and sorghum, however, this situation is only observed in non-producing or low- producing regions. Price projections
Nationally, local cereal prices are expected to maintain their seasonal trend, in particular maize, which is close to its average price, but less so for sorghum and TCS 10 rice. Price fluctuations will ordinarily mirror crop performance and the availability of imported varieties. The prices of the latter will remain high compared to the 5-year average, probably due to the depreciation of the gourde against the US dollar and, above all, the higher prices for these products in the international market.
In the Hinche market, the price of local maize will follow its seasonal trend, after which it is expected to fall slightly with the second maize harvest (October/November 2018), especially in the wetlands. Local maize prices are expected to increase between March and May, partly from planting activities for the spring 2019 marketing year and the lean season (Figure 10). Prices will likely stay very close to their 5-year average but fluctuate above and below the prices from the previous marketing year. In Gonaïves, TCS rice prices (about 240 HTG/6lbs) are expected to remain high between June and August, followed by a decline from September to December 2018. Prices will likely increase for the rest of the outlook period (January to May 2019), which coincides with the lean season (Figure 9). Additionally, TCS rice will remain above last year's price and significantly above the 5-year average (see graph below). The market dynamics will be determined by the performance of the coming harvests (August-November and December-March) and the price differential between local and imported rice. Another factor will be the availability of inputs (seeds, tools, fertilizers, etc.) and the financial support given to farmers. Otherwise, the price of local rice will remain above average during the projection period and even higher than the price of imported rice sold on the Haitian market, all varieties combined. Sorghum prices in the Gonaïves market will likely increase from their June 2018 levels (from 180 to 200 gourdes), peaking in August and November (300 and 320 HTG respectively). It is projected to decline moderately from December through February, coinciding with the main sorghum harvest (Figure 11). Prices will begin to increase again in March 2019 and could reach 340 gourdes by May of the same year. More importantly, the price will be significantly above previous year and average levels throughout the projection period. The use of sorghum in the production of beverages such as Malta H, beer, etc., combined with a fall in crop yields relative to the average, means that there are likely to be some imbalances in this market. In the Port-au-Prince market, the price of imported rice will likely increase from August 2018 through May 2019, by an estimated 13.3 percent, although some stability will be observed with slight fluctuations (Figure 8). The lowest prices will likely be observed in September 2018, and the highest in May 2019. Imported rice prices will nonetheless remain above the 5-year average.
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HAITI SUPPLY AND MARKET OUTLOOK October 2018
Figure 8. Port au Prince, imported rice, retail price (HTG/6lbs) Figure 9. Gonaïves, local rice (TCS10), retail price (HTG/6lbs)
Source: FEWS NET with CNSA/FEWS NET data Source: FEWS NET with CNSA/FEWS NET data
Figure 10. Hinche, local maize, retail price (HTG/6lbs) Figure 11. Gonaïves, sorghum, retail price (HTG/6lbs)
Source: FEWS NET with CNSA/FEWS NET data Source: FEWS NET with CNSA/FEWS NET data
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MARKET MONITORING INDICATORS DURING THE 2018/2019 MARKETING YEAR Notwithstanding reduced maize production during the current marketing year and anomalies noted in some production areas, overall increase in rice and sorghum production suggests that normal market conditions are likely to prevail in terms of local supply and demand for the 2018/19 marketing year, and assuming no major socio-political or other shocks. In addition, aside from local maize, the prices of TCS rice and sorghum are likely to increase even given higher production levels. Price differentials will continue to widen the gap between the consumption of local and imported rice varieties. Therefore, a number of key indicators should be monitored throughout the marketing year. Indicator Justification Fluctuation of the national currency The change in the HTG/dollar exchange rate and also HTG/peso may influence import prices during the projection period. The possible increase in cereal prices due to the depreciation of the gourde exchange will result in cereals becoming less accessible. Final production estimates by MARNDR Substantial changes in the 2017/18 and 2018/2019 production estimates compared to preliminary estimates could significantly affect the country's supply outlook for cereals. The performance of the summer/autumn A good performance in these two seasons, although not significant in and winter harvests terms of contribution to national agricultural production, may increase the supply of cereals, thus improving availability. The level of availability and prices in Good availability in international market will support relatively stable international markets prices. Haiti imports 80 percent of the rice consumed in country. In addition to the HTG/USD exchange rate, the domestic market price is also influenced by global market prices. The performance of harvest in major producing countries will have a significant impact on prices in Haiti. Use of sorghum in the production of The increase in demand for sorghum for beverages (Malta H, beer, etc.) beverages and poultry feed and its use in poultry feed should be regularly monitored, since this could lead to distortions in the final consumer market. Local grain procurement programs Institutional (public and private) and humanitarian (cash and in-kind) purchases could also have an impact on the consumer market. The Haitian government's tariff policy An increase or decrease in tariffs on imported food can influence the import volume and thus the price of products on the market. The macroeconomic situation in the country Macroeconomic conditions are characterized by the low purchasing power of households due to inflationary pressures and high unemployment among the labor force due to weak economic conditions. This may affect the demand for food. The Government's “caravan for change” This strategy could have a significant impact on markets, with the strategy development or construction of agricultural infrastructure and other roads. Major climate shocks including a hurricane, a This could lead to crop losses and thus reduce local food availability. persistent drought or a socio-political crisis. Moreover, markets would be affected by both supply and physical access issues.
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ANNEX 1: SUB-NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE SHEET BY COMMODITY3 Table 1. Rice
5-year 2018/19 2018/19 change change from average change from change from from 5- Department Element 2017/18 2018/19 previous (2013/14 - previous 5-year year year 2017/18) year (%) average (%) average
Artibonite Production (MT) 123,783 144,765 89,054 17 63 ▲ ▲ Artibonite Requirements (MT) 36,062 36,558 37,609 1 -3 ► ► Artibonite Self-sufficiency (%) 343% 396% 237% ▲ ▲ Centre Production (MT) 728 895 587 23 52 ▲ ▲ Centre Requirements (MT) 35,176 35,660 36,686 1 -3 ► ► Centre Self-sufficiency (%) 2% 3% 2% ▲ ▼ Grand Anse Production (MT) 20 214 142 961 50 ▲ ▲ Grand Anse Requirements (MT) 22,631 22,942 23,602 1 -3 ► ► Grand Anse Self-sufficiency (%) 0% 1% 1% ▲ ▼ Nippes Production (MT) 6,871 5,172 3,281 -25 58 ▼ ▲ Nippes Requirements (MT) 16,530 16,758 17,240 1 -3 ► ► Nippes Self-sufficiency (%) 42% 31% 19% ▼ ▼ Nord Production (MT) 2,646 4,135 2,447 56 69 ▲ ▲ Nord Requirements (MT) 51,559 52,268 53,771 1 -3 ► ► Nord Self-sufficiency (%) 5% 8% 5% ▲ ▼ Nord-Est Production (MT) 3,368 4,180 2,695 24 55 ▲ ▲ Nord-Est Requirements (MT) 37,440 37,954 39,046 1 -3 ► ► Nord-Est Self-sufficiency (%) 9% 11% 7% ▲ ▼ Nord-Ouest Production (MT) - - - Nord-Ouest Requirements (MT) 19,040 19,301 19,856 1 -3 ► ► Nord-Ouest Self-sufficiency (%) 0% 0% 0% Ouest Production (MT) 658 1,736 1,088 164 60 ▲ ▲ Ouest Requirements (MT) 194,626 197,303 202,977 1 -3 ► ► Ouest Self-sufficiency (%) 0% 1% 1% ▲ ► Sud-Est Production (MT) 19 46 30 143 52 ▲ ▲ Sud-Est Requirements (MT) 83,439 84,587 87,019 1 -3 ► ► Sud-Est Self-sufficiency (%) 0% 0% 0% ▲ ▼ Sud Production (MT) 1,492 2,172 1,373 46 58 ▲ ▲ Sud Requirements (MT) 30,552 30,972 31,863 1 -3 ► ► Sud Self-sufficiency (%) 5% 7% 4% ▲ ▼
3Data for marketing years 2017/18 and 2018/19 are FEWS NET estimates as of 31 August 2018; ► denotes less than or equal to 10 percentage change; ▲ denotes greater than 10 percentage increase; ▼ denotes greater than 10 percentage decrease. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 10
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Table 2. Maize 5-year 2018/19 2018/19 change change average change from change from from from 5- Department Element 2017/18 2018/19 (2013/14 - previous 5-year previous year 2017/18) year (%) average (%) year average
Artibonite Production (MT) 44,851 39,904 45,251 -11 -12 ▼ ▼
Artibonite Requirements (MT) 18,415 18,668 18,152 1 3 ► ►
Artibonite Self-sufficiency (%) 244% 214% 249% ▼ ▼
Centre Production (MT) 25,821 22,460 23,440 -13 -4 ▼ ►
Centre Requirements (MT) 17,962 18,209 17,706 1 3 ► ►
Centre Self-sufficiency (%) 144% 123% 132% ▼ ▼
Grand Anse Production (MT) 7,709 9,031 10,726 17 -16 ▼ ▼
Grand Anse Requirements (MT) 11,556 11,715 11,391 1 3 ► ►
Grand Anse Self-sufficiency (%) 67% 77% 94% ▲ ▼
Nippes Production (MT) 5,284 6,280 7,441 19 -16 ▲ ▼
Nippes Requirements (MT) 8,441 8,557 8,321 1 3 ► ►
Nippes Self-sufficiency (%) 63% 73% 89% ▲ ▼
Nord Production (MT) 9,181 9,624 12,039 5 -20 ► ▼
Nord Requirements (MT) 26,328 26,690 25,952 1 3 ► ►
Nord Self-sufficiency (%) 35% 36% 46% ▲ ▼
Nord-Est Production (MT) 5,174 4,665 5,051 -10 -8 ► ►
Nord-Est Requirements (MT) 19,118 19,381 18,845 1 3 ► ►
Nord-Est Self-sufficiency (%) 27% 24% 27% ▼ ▼
Nord-Ouest Production (MT) 8,390 8,621 10,964 3 -21 ► ▼
Nord-Ouest Requirements (MT) 9,722 9,856 9,583 1 3 ► ►
Nord-Ouest Self-sufficiency (%) 86% 87% 114% ▲ ▼
Ouest Production (MT) 27,960 28,360 30,736 1 -8 ► ►
Ouest Requirements (MT) 99,384 100,750 97,965 1 3 ► ►
Ouest Self-sufficiency (%) 28% 28% 31% ▲ ▼
Sud-Est Production (MT) 16,837 15,716 18,491 -7 -15 ► ▼
Sud-Est Requirements (MT) 42,607 43,193 41,999 1 3 ► ►
Sud-Est Self-sufficiency (%) 40% 36% 44% ▼ ▼
Sud Production (MT) 9,977 14,911 19,605 49 -24 ▲ ▼
Sud Requirements (MT) 15,601 15,815 15,378 1 3 ► ►
Sud Self-sufficiency (%) 64% 94% 127% ▲ ▼
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 11
HAITI SUPPLY AND MARKET OUTLOOK October 2018
Table 3. Sorghum 2018/19 5-year 2018/19 change change change from average change from from Department Element 2017/18 2018/19 from 5-year (2013/14 - 5-year previous previous average 2017/18) average (%) year year (%) Artibonite Production (MT) 3,617 6,994 22,404 93 -69 ▲ ▼ Artibonite Requirements (MT) 3,069 3,111 5,069 1 -39 ► ▼ Artibonite Self-sufficiency (%) 118% 225% 442% ► ► Centre Production (MT) - 1,108 4,532 -76 ▼ Centre Requirements (MT) 2,994 3,035 4,945 1 -39 ► ▼ Centre Self-sufficiency (%) 0% 37% 92% ▲ Grand Anse Production (MT) - - - Grand Anse Requirements (MT) 1,926 1,953 3,181 1 -39 ► ▼ Grand Anse Self-sufficiency (%) 0% 0% 0% Nippes Production (MT) 4,339 2,812 3,116 -35 -10 ▼ ▼ Nippes Requirements (MT) 1,407 1,426 2,324 1 -39 ► ▼ Nippes Self-sufficiency (%) 308% 197% 134% ▼ ▲ Nord Production (MT) 56 139 459 147 -70 ▲ ▼ Nord Requirements (MT) 4,388 4,448 7,248 1 -39 ► ▼ Nord Self-sufficiency (%) 1% 3% 6% ▲ ▲ Nord-Est Production (MT) 2 5 18 173 -70 ▲ ▼ Nord-Est Requirements (MT) 3,186 3,230 5,263 1 -39 ► ▼ Nord-Est Self-sufficiency (%) 0% 0% 0% ► ► Nord-Ouest Production (MT) 58 70 192 22 -64 ▲ ▼ Nord-Ouest Requirements (MT) 1,620 1,643 2,676 1 -39 ► ▼ Nord-Ouest Self-sufficiency (%) 4% 4% 7% ► ▼ Ouest Production (MT) 9,628 8,672 16,172 -10 -46 ► ▼ Ouest Requirements (MT) 16,564 16,792 27,359 1 -39 ► ▼ Ouest Self-sufficiency (%) 58% 52% 59% ▼ ▲ Sud-Est Production (MT) 28 214 829 662 -74 ▲ ▼ Sud-Est Requirements (MT) 7,101 7,199 11,729 1 -39 ► ▼ Sud-Est Self-sufficiency (%) 0% 3% 7% ▲ ▼ Sud Production (MT) 376 1,105 3,841 194 -71 ▲ ▼ Sud Requirements (MT) 2,600 2,636 4,295 1 -39 ► ▼ Sud Self-sufficiency (%) 14% 42% 89% ▲ ▼
Famine Early Warning Systems Network 12