Afghanistan Election Conundrum (1): Political Pressure on Commissioners Puts 2018 Vote in Doubt

Afghanistan Election Conundrum (1): Political pressure on commissioners puts 2018 vote in doubt

Author : Ali Yawar Adili

Published: 18 November 2017 Downloaded: 5 September 2018 Download URL: https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/afghanistan-election-conundrum-1-political-pressure-on-commissioners- puts-2018-vote-in-doubt/?format=pdf

While struggling to prepare for the parliamentary (and supposedly also district council) elections scheduled for the 7 July 2018, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) are finding themselves under increasing fire from a growing number of political groups and election observer bodies. There have been allegations of financial corruption, government interference and divisions within the two commissions. Playing upon these issues, political groups are demanding that all the electoral commissioners be sacked and replaced with new ones. In a move possibly intended to alleviate the pressure, President Ghani has now sacked the chair of the IEC. AAN’s Ali Yawar Adili considers these demands and what they might mean for the credibility of the elections and the likelihood of them happening on time.

This is part one of a series of dispatches about where the preparations for the next elections stand. The following parts will address technical issues and district elections.

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This research was supported by a grant from the Open Society Foundations.

The first casualty of the criticism mounting against IEC and ECC has come: on 15 November 2017, President Ashraf Ghani sacked IEC chairman Najibullah Ahmadzai, three days after five of Ahmadzai’s fellow commissioners had written to the president asking for his dismissal. The Palace issued a statement, but it was vague, just saying the government had responded to IEC members and asking “relevant institutions” to introduce fresh candidates. Ahmadzai, in turn, said the government had acted against him because he had been standing against illegal demands by the presidential palace which he said included the demand to manipulate the elections. He provided no evidence.

External pressure had been mounting on the commissions, particularly since early October when a broad coordination group of political organisations and protest movements came out with fierce criticism against the two bodies. Called the Shura-ye Tafahum-e Jeryanha-ye Siyasi Afghanistan (the Understanding Council of Political Currents of Afghanistan), it demanded the complete replacement of the members of both commissions.

The election commissioners are appointed by the president from a shortlist prepared by a selection committee (more on which below). The IEC has seven members, four appointed for five years and the other three for three years. The ECC has five members, three of whom are appointed for five years and the other two for three years. The current teams are completely new. The old teams were all dismissed, despite not having run to the end of their terms because they were tainted by their role in the disputed 2014 presidential elections: Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah’s camp had accused the two bodies of overseeing widespread fraud in favour of President Ghani. Operating under the assumption that the current IEC and ECC members will serve full terms, they are due to administer both upcoming elections. Parliamentary and district elections are due in 2018 – in this dispatch, we mainly refer to parliamentary elections only, as district elections have never been held before and fundamental preparations for them, including drawing up constituency boundaries, are not yet evident; we hope to look at them in more detail in a future piece. Presidential elections are due in 2019.

The current IEC and ECC members were appointed and sworn in in November 2016, two months after the government finally, after a lengthy deadlock on electoral reform, managed to pass a new electoral law. Although there was some controversy at the time, both over the choice and the process of selection, (see this AAN dispatch which includes short biographies here), it had seemed that the inauguration of the new IEC and ECC had broken the protracted stalemate in the attempt to agree on electoral reforms and that these new faces could now start planning the next (already overdue) parliamentary elections. However, almost one year on after the formation of the IEC and ECC, political groups have focused their attention on the members of these electoral bodies, seizing upon allegations of financial corruption, undue presidential influence on the IEC and internal divisions in both commissions as evidence of their inability to oversee elections.

It is worth noting that all the various political forces, whether in government or out of it, consider

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it crucial who controls the two commissions, as they will play a crucial role in determining who will become Afghanistan’s next MPs and next president. They will play that role whether or not the elections are fair or rigged. This obsession with the commissions was manifested very vividly in the post-2014 electoral reform process, which, as AAN previously wrote, largely boiled down not to reform as such, but to “a tug of war over who controls the electoral bodies – and through them the election’s outcome.”

Accusations and accusers

The Understanding Council of Political Currents of Afghanistan, which has hoovered up most of the opposition groupings and protest movements (full list of members below), has said in its 7 October statement entitled “The Joint Position of the Understanding Council of Political Currents of Afghanistan in Connection with the Transparency of Elections,” that the IEC “with its current composition” did not have the “ability to hold transparent and fraud-free elections and is not trusted by the people or the political currents.” It claimed that the IEC lacked “independence in decision-making,” a “spirit of impartiality,” and “sufficient and necessary managerial capacity” and was marred by “financial corruption and lack of transparency in purchases and internal disputes among the members.” The Council, without giving more detail about its allegations, demanded that:

In order to hold transparent, free and fair elections and prevent the elections from going into crisis… [t]he commissioners and heads of the electoral commissions [should] be dismissed as soon as possible and the National Unity Government [NUG] in agreement with political parties, civil organisations and prominent political personalities, [should] introduce and appoint other eligible members instead of them.

The Council also reopened a much chewed-over, legal debate, contending that the legislative decree issued by the president to pass the electoral law had not been not valid (more on this below).

Individually, members of the Understanding Council, some of whom are members or appointees of the government, had since taken up the call for the dismissal of some or all IEC members. Balkh Governor and Jamiat Chief Executive Atta Muhammad Nur, for instance, on 31 October 2017, called on the NUG to dissolve the current IEC and appoint new and “impartial commissioners.” On 16 October 2017, Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani said the current IEC did not have the ability to hold elections “at the specified time in a transparent and acceptable fashion,” citing lack of clarity on “electoral constituencies, the budget of the electoral commissions and voter registration.” Understanding Council members have also accused the NUG of lacking the political will to hold elections. Anwar-ul-Haq Ahadi, a former finance minister and now head of the opposition New National Front of Afghanistan (NNFA), said on 22 October 2017 that the NUG had no intention of holding elections next year and that it was failing to recognise “the importance of time.” Ahadi’s criticism came one day after Afghan media reported that the president had sacked the head of the IEC secretariat (also known as the chief electoral officer) Imam Muhammad Warimach. Ahadi welcomed the dismissal and said he

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hoped for more changes to the IEC). Some media reports suggested that Warimach’s dismissal was connected with him speaking in public about the political pressure he said the IEC was under – he referred to “threats to the IEC, personal insults, a propaganda campaign and fraud by some circles.” Other Afghan media, however, reported that Warimach was fired by the president over corruption and poor performance (read here and here). (For more detail on the sacking, see footnote [1].)

The Understanding Council’s demand for new commissioners also came in the wake of an internal dispute within the IEC and ECC (more on this below) and at a time when the IEC is struggling to prepare for the next parliamentary (and district) elections scheduled for 7 July 2018. The parliamentary election is itself more than two years overdue and this has provided the opportunity for various political groups to doubt the NUG’s political will to hold them. So far, since 2001, no elections have been held on time – but none of them with such a long delay. Even so, as the clock ticks on this particular electoral process, both the electoral bodies and the electoral timeline are being scrutinised with increasing scepticism by both national and international observers.

In Afghanistan, the findings of a recent survey conducted by the Transparent Election Foundation of Afghanistan (TEFA) and released on 9 October 2017 showed that a high percentage of people were not upbeat about the IEC’s ability to administer elections effectively. According to this survey, 41 per cent of respondents do not believe that the IEC has the capacity to hold a transparent elections, while 29 per cent believe it does and 30 per cent are uncertain. TEFA did not ask whether people thought any body could oversee elections effectively, so it is not clear if the doubts are about the IEC per se or Afghan elections in general. [2] Another assessment by the Elections and Transparency Watch Organisation of Afghanistan (ETWA), released on 5 October 2017, stated that it considered the IEC to be incapable of holding parliamentary elections next year and that the necessary reforms had not been implemented.

Special Representative of the UN Secretary General to Afghanistan Tadamichi Yamamoto, in his briefing to the United Nations Security Council on 25 September 2017, also said that many stakeholders remained “sceptical that credible elections will be held on time.” This doubt has opened – so far not publically – discussions about alternative scenarios: to move the election date to October or November 2018 or even to hold the parliamentary poll together with the presidential election in 2019.

Who is in the Understanding Council and how much clout do they have?

The Understanding Council, which presented itself for the first time at a press conference on 7 November 2017 as a “coordination group” (no other details given), includes the following parties and organisations:

Mehwar-e Mardom-e Afghanistan, a political group formed in July 2017 by former allies and aides of former president Hamed Karzai, including the former director of the

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National Directorate of Security (NDS), Rahmatullah Nabil, former National Security Adviser, Rangin Dadfar Spanta, and former Minister Of Transport And Civil Aviation (and former chief electoral officer) Daud Ali Najafi. The group says it aspires to take an independent political course from Karzai and presents itself as an opposition to the NUG (read AAN’s previous analysis about Mehwar here; The Coalition for the Salvation of Afghanistan, a semi-opposition group, also known as the Ankara Coalition, formed at the end of June 2017 by first vice-president and leader of Jombesh-e Melli-ye Islami Abdul Rashid Dostum, second deputy chief executive and leader of Hezb-e Wahdat-e Mardom Muhammad Mohaqeq, (acting) foreign minister and acting head of Jamiat-e Islami Salahuddin Rabbani and Balkh governor and chief executive of Jamiat Atta Muhammad Nur. They represent three major political parties which have shown strong ethnic support in the polls (Uzbek, Hazara and Tajik, respectively) and have remained internal dissenters and objectors within the NUG (read AAN’s previous analysis on the Ankara coalition here); The Council for the Protection and Stability of Afghanistan (CPSA), a political group formed on 18 December 2015 by influential jihadi leader, 2014 presidential candidate and leader of Dawat-e Islami Party (formerly the Ittihad-e Islami faction) Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf, former vice-president and Jamiat stalwart Yunos Qanuni and other prominent former members of Karzai cabinets including Muhammad Omar Daudzai and Bismillah Khan Muhammadi (both former interior ministers), Wahid Shahrani (former minister of mines), Ismail Khan (Herat strongman and former minister of energy and water), Sadiq Mudaber (former director of Karzai’s office of administrative affairs) and Abdul Rauf Ibrahimi and Fazl Hadi Muslimyar, speakers of the lower and upper houses of the parliament (read AAN’s analysis about the council and front here); The New National Front of Afghanistan, formed by former finance minister and former leader of the Afghan Mellat Party, Anwar ul-Haq Ahadi, on 14 January 2016. It has presented itself as an opposition force and is a coalition of (parts of) various small political parties, including Afghan Mellat, Hezb-e Adalat wa Tawseha (Justice and Development Party), the former mujahedin faction Harakat-e Inqilab-e Islami (Islamic Revolution Movement of Afghanistan) (read AAN’s analysis about the council and front here); Hezb-e Mutahed-e Melli (National United Party) led by Nur ul-Haq Ulumi, a former People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) military general and governor of Kandahar. Ulumi allied himself with Jamiat-e Islami in the coalition that supported Dr Abdullah in the 2009 and 2014 presidential elections; he served as interior minister in the NUG (January 2015 to February 2016) (see AAN’s previous analysis here and here); De Loya Kandahar de Yawwali au Hamghagi Bahir (the Greater Kandahar Unity and Coordination Movement), a regional grouping which includes locally influential figures from the southern provinces. According to Kandahar-based journalist Mamun Durrani, the movement is run by Kandahar police chief General Abdul Razeq, MP Lalai Hamedzai (from Kandahar) and Sher Muhammad Akhundzada (former Helmand governor who is also and close ally of former president Karzai) and the head of Zabul provincial council, Atta Jan Haq Bayan; all are reportedly unhappy with President Ghani; De Mashreqi Welayatuno de Hamghagi Shura (the Eastern Provinces Coordination

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Council) was launched on 1 August 2017 with scathing criticisms of Ghani and Abdullah for what it said was a failure to deliver on (unspecified) promises. Abdul Malek Sulaimanzai, one of the Council’s leaders, told AAN on 2 November 2017 that it included “all the [political] elites of eastern provinces,” such as influential MPs and former mujahedin commanders and figures from Nangarhar, Hazrat Ali, Mirwais Yasini, Haji Zaher Qader as well as Sakhi Meshwanai, an MP from Kunar, and Muhammad Hassan Mamozai, an MP from Laghman; Jombesh-e Guzar (the Transition Movement), a Tajik nationalist grouping which announced its existence on 11 May 2017; Rastakhez-e Taghir or Uprising for Change, a movement that emerged out of protests in the wake of 31 May 2017 truck bombing near Zanbaq square (see AAN’s analysis on Uprising for Change here); and The Commission for the Coordination of Political and Civil Organisations, a political grouping of 12 or so parties including Hezb-e Bidari-ye Mellat Afghanistan (Afghanistan Nation’s Awakening Party), the Republican Party of Afghanistan led by Adela Bahram and Qiyam-e Melli (National Uprising) Party led by Kandahari businessman Zmarialai Ahadi. According to Maqsud Hassanzada of the Nation Awakening Party, the group was established around two years ago by people who had supported President Ghani in the 2014 presidential election, but were disgruntled with him after “he closed the Palace’s gate to them.” Hassanzada said that some of the 12 parties, including his own, were no longer with the Commission for the Coordination of Political and Civil Organisations. However, he said that even those parties that had defected from the Commission might join the Understanding Council. He remained critical of the president, calling him “a liar and reneging on his promises.”

The list of the Understanding Council’s members shows that it is a very broad political umbrella group and includes many of the major fully or semi-opposition political groupings that have emerged during the NUG tenure. It includes both those inside and outside government. The council has enormous political weight, although also a strong tendency to fragment, given that only a common desire to change the IEC and ECC appears to bind it together. It does not even have a common platform of replacement commissioners to propose.

IEC secretary and spokesman Gula Jan Badi Sayyad has tried to play down the significance of the Council, claiming, for example, during a TV discussion on 11 October 2017, that those who demanded the dismissal of the IEC members were just “12 parties” and that “the big parties” were “happy with the commission’s performance to an extent.”

The trust deficit

As was mentioned, at the very outset, the way appointments to the IEC and ECC were made were criticised by both political opposition groups and election observer organisations. First, there were accusations that certain circles around the president had interfered in the formation of the Selection Committee, the body enshrined in the electoral law with the responsibility for vetting and shortlisting applicants for membership of the IEC and ECC. Election observer

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organisations like TEFA and ETWA complained that the Selection Committee had been formed while most civil society activists were out of the country for the 2016 Brussels conference. They also questioned its transparency and independence, citing the fact that its secretariat was run by the Administrative Office of the President where the committee was also located and also alleging that the committee took most of its decisions behind closed doors, far from observers’ eyes. Second, the appointees were also criticised for lack of necessary experience and expertise. The comparatively small NNFA called the appointments “non-transparent and interest-based,” and aired its doubts about the “transparency of next parliamentary and presidential election” (see AAN’s previous analysis here).

Allegations of government influence on the work of the electoral commissions also followed. On 24 April 2017, Humayun Humayun, first deputy speaker of the Wolesi Jirga, claimed that the president had taken unsigned resignation letters from seven IEC members before appointing them and warned that if they did not obey his demands in the next elections, he would approve their resignations. This claim was picked up by NNFA leader Ahadi who

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