IRAN and PAKISTAN Security, Diplomacy and American Influence
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Alex Vatanka is Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and Jamestown Foundation in Washington, DC. Aspecialist in Middle Eastern geopolitics with afocus on Iran, he was previously the Senior Middle East Analyst at Jane’sdefence and security group in London. ‘Excellent. Vatanka offers timely insights into an important geopolitical relationship that is often overlooked but is critical to understanding some of the key elements that have contributed to relations between Iran, Pakistan and America.’ David Patrikarakos, author of Nuclear Iran: The Birth of an Atomic State,I.B.Tauris, 2012 ‘Intracing thecourseofIranian Pakistani taut relations over nearly sevendecades,Vatanka’s lively, thoroughlyresearched book threads together thosepersonalities andeventsthathaveshapedtwo of the most challenging countries faced today by Western policy makers. The book providesfor asound understanding of areas of foreignpolicyand regional andglobalalliances that once figured so prominentlyinthe Cold Warand also nowinthe fight againstglobalmilitantextremism. The Shi‘i Sunni rivalry, regional nuclear proliferation andthe American dimensionare also illuminated by this book’s wide ranging, engrossingnarrative.’ Marvin Weinbaum, Director of the Pakistan Center at Middle East Institute, Washington, DC and Professor Emeritus at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign ‘A fascinating and enlightening study of the complex and intricate relationship between two key Islamic states, Iran and Pakistan. This much neglected connection between the Middle East and South Asia will only become more important in the future. This book explains clearly and cogently why that matters.’ Bruce Riedel, Senior Fellow,Brookings Institution ‘This book is an ultimate supreme example of all the works so far done on the subject. Vatanka’scomposition, the sources he has consulted and the ease with which he expresses himself make this aunique task of scholarship.’ R.K. (Ruhi) Ramazani, Edward R. Stettinius Professor Emeritus of Government and Foreign Affairs, University of Virginia IRAN AND PA KISTAN Security,Diplomacy and American Influence A LEX V ATANKA Published in 2015 by I.B.Tauris &Co. Ltd London •New York www.ibtauris.com Copyright q 2015 Alex Vatanka The right of Alex Vatanka to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by the author in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in areview,this book, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced, stored in or introduced into aretrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Every attempt has been made to gain permission for the use of the images in this book. Any omissions will be rectified in future editions. References to websites were correct at the time of writing. International Library of Iranian Studies 57 ISBN: 978 178453 214 7 eISBN: 978 085772 551 6 Afull CIP record for this book is available from the British Library Afull CIP record is available from the Library of Congress Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: available Typeset in Garamond Three by OKS Prepress Services, Chennai,India Printed and bound by CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY To Heidi, Martin, Kathrin and my parents CONTENTS Acknowledgements viii Introduction 1 1. On the Road to India: Iran’sand Pakistan’s Intertwined History 5 2. 1947 1958: Early Hiccups, as Iran and Pakistan Both Look to the US for Protection 12 3. 1958 1965: Regional Turbulence and an Unlikely Union 27 4. 1965 1969: The Northern Tier: AFluid Fault Line 45 5. 1969 71: Iran’sIntervention over the Pakistani Defeat of 1971 66 6. 1971 77: The Shah and Pakistan’sReluctant Dependence 82 7. 1977 1988: Zia, the Shah and the Coming of the Ayatollah 129 8. The Arrival of the Shi‘a Sunni Schism in Relations 171 9. 1988 2001: Geopolitical Foes, Sometime Partners 195 10. 2001 Present: Afghanistan, the Arab Challenge and Iran’s Soft Power in Pakistan 226 Epilogue 258 Notes 265 Bibliography 291 Index 296 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS In Islamabad, Iasked agroup of retired Pakistani diplomats about access to the archives at the Foreign Ministry.‘Don’tbother inquiring,’ one of them replied. Itook that to mean that the archives were simply off limits to outsiders. But he continued. ‘What you will find about Pakistanipolicydeliberations[toward Iran] in thearchivesin Washington or London are probably more complete than what you will find here,’ the former Pakistani ambassador insisted. As implausibleasitsoundedatthatparticularmoment, with time and aftercombing throughdeclassified Americanand Britishdocuments relating to Iranian Pakistaniaffairs dating back to thelate1940s,Icame to appreciate thesentimentthe Pakistanidiplomat was conveying. The Iranians andthe Pakistanis each have,ofcourse, separate accounts of events relating to sevendecades of state to state relations. That was notthe point. The point is that Iranian Pakistani ties, in moments of cooperation or rivalry,have over the years been hugely shaped by their respective attitudes and interests vis a` vis the Western world. And among Western powers, the Americans and the British have beyond question been the most influential players in this part of the world. It is in American and British archives one finds important clues or even the missing details that can better explain the actions of Tehran and Islamabad toward each other over the years. The United States in particular has since the mid 1960s been the third and undeniable column in Iranian Pakistani relations. And where Washington opts to stand on relations between these two countries will continue to be crucial as Iranian Pakistani relations move forward. A CKNOWLEDGEMENTS ix Research projects on political history in Iran and Pakistan, as is the case in most of west Asia, are invariably sensitive. Official archives are mostly not available to unsanctioned outsiders. Personal interviews and memoirs, when possible and available, are therefore critical sources. Accordingly,this book project benefitted greatly from the time and insights of many individuals. Ardeshir Zahedi was most gracious in hosting me in Montreux. His many years of working with the Pakistanis as foreign minister and as a close confidant of the Shah of Iran made him an invaluable authority.In Washington, Assad Homayoun, aformer senior Iranian diplomat from the Shah’sera, was most helpful in his suggestions given his postings both in Islamabad and later in Washington. In Rawalpindi, Islamabad and Lahore, Asad Durrani, Shamshad Ahmad, Talat Masood, Khalid Mahmood, Taqi Bagash, Arif Ayub, Rasul Baksh Rais, Javid Hussain, Massarrat Abid and Asma Khawaja were able to open my eyes, and many doors, to leave me deeply appreciative of the making of Pakistani foreign policy.Thanks also to the Institute of Strategic Studies (Islamabad) for generously hosting me. In Kabul, Haji Mangal, Davood Moradian and Vahid Mojdeh, gave me important first hand accounts from the days of Soviet occupation and Taliban rule. Combined they provided me with astrong understanding of the nature of Iranian Pakistani rivalry on Afghan soil. Thanks also to Shahir Ahmad Zahine, Melek Zahine and Rahim Khan for making my stay in Kabul afruitful and wonderfully memorable one. AmongIranianswithgovernment experience in theIslamic Republic, Abol hassan Bani Sadr,Hossein Mousavian, Abbas Maleki and Ali Akbar Omid Mehr deserve my special thanks for the time they took out to speak with me on the various aspects of Iran’sforeign policy toward Pakistan and Afghanistan in the post 1979 era. Among former American officials with awealth of experience in the region, Iamparticularly indebted to Michael Metrinko, James Dobbins, Bruce Riedel, Zalmay Khalilzad, Charlie Naas and Jim Placke. Vali R. Nasr,F .G regory Gause III, Ahmad Kamal, Arif Jamal, Toby Dalton, Yousaf Butt, Ann Wilkens, Vinay Chawla, Rahimullah Yusefzai, Shah Jahan, Ahmad Etmad and David Mack each helped me along the way. Meanwhile, the staff at the offices of the American Institute of Pakistan Studies (AIPS) in Islamabad, the Foundation for Iranian Studies in Maryland and the Library of Congress in Washington were always x I RAN AND P AKISTAN supportive. At the Jamestown Foundation, Idepended faithfully on its president, Glen Howard, and senior fellow Michael Ryan to guide me during the various aspects of writing this book. Istand grateful to them both. At the Middle East Institute, there is along list of colleagues who provided insights and advice. In particular,Marvin Weinbaum, a leading scholar on Pakistan, gave me generous and indispensable advice throughout the course of the project. Ithank also the institute’s president, Wendy Chamberlin, and Kate Seelye and Paul Salem for their continuous encouragement. The wonderful support Ireceived from the many research assistants at MEI also needs to be noted. They all have my sincerest thanks but specially Desiree Bryan, Joshua Lee, Tawab Malekzad, Saher Naumaan, Abduallah Khurram, Munazza Khan, Maria Gaetskaya and Nausheen Rajan. Afshin Molavi and Karim Sadjadpour never failed to make valuable suggestions and introductions. They and other friends, Michael Rubin, Ali Alfoneh, Mehdi Khalaji, Siamak Dehghanpour,Fatemeh Aman, Meir Javedanfar,Miriam Lanskoy,Richard Kramer,and many others each in their way nudged me along to complete this book. At I.B.Tauris, Iamthankful to publisher Iradj Bagherzade and my editor,Azmina Siddique, for seeing promise in the initial idea