INDO-US STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment for the award of the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS by ASHFAQ AHMED MAILK SCHOOL OF POLITICS AND INTERNTIONAL RELATIONS QUAID-I-AZAM UNIVERSITY, ISLAMABAD SEPTEMBER 2018 i APPROVAL The PhD thesis titled “INDO-US STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN” has been carried out by Ashfaq Ahmed Malik, under my supervision. The work is approved for evaluation by the foreign referees. Dr. Nazir Hussain Professor/Supervisor ii DECLARATION The PhD thesis “INDO-US STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN” is based on the original research. No part of the thesis is copied or plagiarized; all sources are properly documented as per the guidance provided by the QAU/HEC. Ashfaq Ahmed Malik iii DEDICATION To my mother who is my everything iv CONTENTS ABSTRACT vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS viii ABBREVIATIONS ix INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 15 1.1 A Balance of Power Approach 1.2 Statist/Unitary Actor Approach 1.3 Sovereignty 1.4 National interest 1.5 Rational Choice 1.6 Hegemonic Stability and Consolidation 1.7 Theoretical Construct 1.8 Application of Theoretical Construct CHAPTER 2: HISTORICAL ANALYSIS 37 2.1 Evolution of Indio-US Strategic Partnership 2.2 Post Independence: 1960-1974 2.3 1974 till End of Cold War Era 2.4 Post Cold War Era 2.5 Nuclear Explosions by India and Pakistan 2.6 Bush Transformation Era 2.7 India-US Defense Deal 2.8 India-US Defense Trade 2.9 Other Areas of Interests between US and India CHAPTER 3: INDIA CENTRIC US APPROACH 72 3.1 India-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation 3.2 India-US Economic and Trade Cooperation 3.3 Space Cooperation 3.4 Indian Benefits of IAEA and Nuclear Suppliers Group 3.5 US-India Relations during Trump and Modi Era CHAPTER 4: IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN 97 4.1 Strategic Implications 4.2 Political Implications 4.3 Economic Implications 4.4 Pakistan’s search for improved relations with Russia v CHAPTER 5: RE-ALIGNMENT OF FOREIGN POLICY OF PAKISTAN 111 5.1 Look East Policy by Pakistan 5.2 China-Pakistan Cooperation in Nuclear Field 5.3 China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) 5.4 Multilateral Approach by Pakistan (Relationship with Russia) 5.5 Improvement of Relations with Neighbors (Iran and Afghanistan) CHAPTER 6: FUTURISTIC ARCHITECTURE OF REGIONAL ALIGNMENT 148 6.1 Neutralizing Indian Hegemony in the Region 6.2 Blocking Indian Membership in NSG 6.3 Countering US influence in South Asia 6.4 Supporting Regional Organization: SAARC and SCO CONCLUSION 171 BIBLIOGRAPHY 176 vi ABSTRACT In the international system there is often an interplay of states and systems where two or more states partner up in order to change an existing system. The India-US partnership works in a similar fashion because it is a partnership of two states and it has made some alterations in the regional as well as international system. The US used to be the old allied partner of Pakistan and because of its own variations in the national interests and greater strategic purposes; it has now developed cooperation with India. This partnership has many dimensions to it; there are economic aspects, political motives, security factors, military and defense needs and most of all strategic grounds. This makes the ultimate reason of US- India cooperation one where greater strategic characteristics exist, i.e. every aspect is then held by the thread of strategic partnership. Afghanistan issue, trade balance, space, IT, curtailing Chinese influence in South Asia and most of all defense and nuclear motives take the pedestal of the greater strategic motivations. Yet this is not as much of an asymmetric relationship. There is truth to the fact that Pakistan will be at a setback because of the US withdrawal of interest in being its partner but there are so many more ways in which the implications for this relationship will be positive for it as well. For one thing, Pakistan and China will be working on making their bond a stronger one and this vacancy of a foreign ally can be filled. Furthermore, this gives Pakistan plenty of chances to rethink its foreign policy agenda and turn from West to East. Pakistan can make structural changes and fixate itself with Russia, China, Iran and CARs to gain a strategic and security advantage. This will work well even for Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy and schemata in which Pakistan can grasp at a more individualistic role. The US-India partnership will also push for some changes on the regional level as there are bound to be many re-alignments as well. This study does not just discuss the US-India partnership in a factual and historic analytical manner but also focuses on the ‘can-be’ aspect of Pakistan in the contemporary present and the near future as well. vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and above all, I praise Allah Almighty, (the most beneficial and merciful) who provided me the best opportunity and granted me the capability to complete this thesis successfully. To my supervisor, Dr. Nazir Hussain, who guided, encouraged and directed me throughout the process of my thesis. This is his support and encouragement that enabled me to complete this uphill task. I am simply out of words to express my gratitude. A special thanks to my family, my son Hamza, Abubakr and my adorable daughter Habiba. Words cannot express how grateful I am to my parents, for all the sacrifices that they have made on my behalf. Their prayers for me were what sustained me thus far. I would also like to admire my best friend Mariam who was always a great help and support to me. Ashfaq Ahmad Malik September 27, 2017 Islamabad viii ABBREVIATIONS ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations BECA Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial Cooperation BARC Bhabha Atomic Research Centre of Indi BIT Bilateral Investment Treaty of the US and India BJP Bharatiya Janata Party BPO Business Process Outsourcing BRI Belt and Road Initiative of China CEIP Carnegie Endowment for International Peace CD Conference Disarmament CENTO Central Treaty Organization (Baghdad Pact) SEATO Southeast Asian Treaty Organization CBI Central Bureau of Intelligence CNNC China National Nuclear Corporation CISMOA Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement CBMS Confidence Building Measures CSC Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor CTBT Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty DTTI Defence Technology and Trade Initiative DoD Department of Defense of the US ECO Economic Cooperation Organisation EUMA End User Monitoring Agreement EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment FTA Free Trade Agreement GDP Gross Domestic Product GSOIMA General Security of Military Information Agreement GSP Generalized System of Preferences Program of US IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICJ International Court of Justice ix IMF International Monetary Fund DGP Defence Policy Group of India MOD Ministry of Defence (India) INC Indian National Congress ISRO Indian Space Research Organization IDSA Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis of India IMET International Military Education and Training IMAFT Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (Saudi Arabian-led) JSV Joint Strategic Vision of the US and India KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Province of Pakistan) LEMO Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement LSA Logistics Support Agreement MDA Maritime Domain Awareness MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime NAM Non-Aligned Movement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NSSP Next Steps in Strategic Partnership of India and the US NPT Nuclear Proliferation Treaty NSA National Security Advisor NSG Nuclear Supplier Group NSS National Security Strategy of the US OBOR One Belt One Road of China PAEC Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission PAC Patriot Advanced Capability PNE Peaceful Nuclear Explosion PTA Preferential Trade Agreement QCG Quadrilateral Coordination Group for Afghanistan RSS Rashtriya Swaymsevak Sangh of India SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organisation SSA Space Situation Awareness (SSA x SEZ Special Economic Zones TASL Tata Advanced Systems Limited of India TTP Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan TAPI Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India (Gas Pipeline) HTCG High Technology Cooperation Group of India and the US USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction WTO World Trade Organization xi INTRODUCTION The end of World War-II ushered the bipolar world order, characterized by disintegration and alignment of the states along capitalist and communist ideologies. India’s refusal to succumb to the Cold War era divide generated an alternative geopolitical code, which steadily grew, greased and culminated in the creation of Non Aligned Movement (NAM). In fact, Jawaharlal Nehru, the then India’s Prime Minister, wanted to project a new image of the third world, where people can make a decision independent of the world powers. The non-alignment policy of Nehru along with other countries was aimed at disengaging the newly independent countries from their colonial heritage. Although, it seemed to be a comprehensive objective, yet hardly achievable in view of the global structure. During the Cold War era, India under Nehru struggled to chart a niche for itself, which eventually led to the formulation of Nehru Doctrine on the lines of Monroe Doctrine. The Nehru Doctrine was established in a manner to depict the preponderance of India and more importantly the portrayal of Indian-centrism of regional affairs. From an existentialist view, Pakistan had to be assertive with the ground realities of its environment. Its closeness and alignment with the US-led military alliances outside the umbrella of NATO should also depend on the same. Yet the fact remains that the US foreign policy towards South Asia, particularly India and Pakistan have always been oscillating right from the independence. Taking sides between the two necessarily does not suit the US in the long-run.