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(Chapter Title on Righthand Pages) 1 Development of Behavioural Models of Travel for Metropolitan Areas Padmini G and S.L Dhingra (IIT Bombay) DEVELOPMENT OF BEHAVIOURAL MODELS OF TRAVEL FOR METROPOLITAN AREAS Padmini G, IIT Bombay, [email protected] Prof.S.L. Dhingra, IIT Bombay, [email protected] ABSTRACT Urban population in India is growing rapidly from the last two decades; from this metropolitan cities are worst hit due to fast trends of urbanization. Because of urbanization the crisis pertaining to metropolitan areas is role of transport. To overcome transportation problems proper mass transportation facilities are required, to provide new transport facilities study of commuters behaviour is an important aspect. More number of attempts has been made by the researchers to develop integrated urban activity and mass transport models for metropolitan areas. But these were not explored fully for metropolitan areas. For study region Pune, (India) population density increased clustering and land use mix, infill development of vehicle traffic can reduce public costs. At the same time, income growth encourages car ownership, followed by a modal shift from public transport to road oriented transport mode. Discrete choice models for vehicle ownership models and mode choice models are developed for Pune metropolitan area. Car and Two wheeler (TW) ownership models are developed using Revealed preference (RP) data obtained from HIS data of Pune. Data base is prepared for Mode choice using skims extracted from the CUBE for Pune network and based on Home Interview Survey (HIS) data. Mode choice model is developed using that data set. Types of alternative modes considered in the preparation of mode choice model are walk, car, TW and Public transport (PT). Though all the models have logical and statistical significance prediction success tables are written to find out the goodness of fit of the models developed. From the prediction success tables of the models it was observed that goodness of fit of the model is satisfactory. The major part of this study is the analysis of HIS data and development of various models like car, TW ownership and Mode choice Models. It was concluded that disaggregate modelling approach can be successfully used for modelling the Vehicle ownership decisions, and, mode choice for better transportation planning of the cities in developing countries. Keywords: Revealed preference (RP), Stated Preference (SP), Vehicle ownership Models, mode choice models, prediction success table. 12th WCTR, July 11-15, 2010 – Lisbon, Portugal 1 Development of Behavioural Models of Travel for Metropolitan Areas Padmini G and S.L Dhingra (IIT Bombay) 1.0 INTRODUCTION Urban population in India is growing rapidly from the last two decades, from this metropolitan cities are worst hit due to fast trends of urbanization. The urbanization has brought in its own problems, especially with regard to impact on the infrastructure facilities. The urban transport system has come under heavy strain and has adversely affected the quality of life of urban dwellers. Due to lack of public transport and rapid urbanization the present transportation facilities are not enough to cater the needs of people, because of this reason vehicle ownership increases rapidly from last two decades. One of the crisis pertaining to urban traffic is the role of public transport. Mass transport facilities in the cities provided by buses and suburban trains are grossly inadequate for providing fast, comfortable, and convenient travel. Crowded buses, large queues at bus stands and excessive bus travel time due to added street congestion are today common features of all big cities. This has resulted in heavy shift of commuter patronage from mass transportation to private and intermediate transport leading to an imbalance in the modal spilt and consequently, a huge increase in number of intermediate and private vehicle ownership. It is true that the private car is the most ideal transport vehicle devised by man. Its advantages are quicker travel, freedom from adherence to fix timetables, possibility of carrying the family and luggage more comfortably along with the sheer enjoyment of driving. But, at the same time, the great increase in car ownership has resulted in inefficient road space utilization and has created problems of congestion, accidents, parking, and pollution, also the concept of door-to-door service provided by car is lost. To improve our city streets only for the sake of growing needs of some future car travelers might not be feasible with the limited resources available. More Vehicle ownership causes congestion and more fuel usage. The behavioural models are useful for arriving realistic decision frame work, and the various choices involved in location and travel aspects in mega cities of developing countries. The Pune Metropolitan Region covers an area of about 443 square kilometers. It comprises of two municipal corporations and three cantonment boards. The city is well connected by Road, Air and Railway routes. Pune is the second largest city in Maharashtra. It has a broad, multi functional economic base comprising cultural, educational, business, trade, commerce, industry sectors and activities. The importance of Pune as an industrial centre has grown rapidly since the 1960's when industrial expansion in Mumbai was banned. Consequently Pune has become a major centre in the state, having attracted heavy engineering industry such as motor vehicle manufacturing plants (buses, cars and motorcycles). Definition of behavioural model as per oxford dictionary is “A model which takes into account the vagaries of human nature rather than depending on the concept of economic man”. There is no single theoretical framework in traffic psychology, but many specific models explaining the perceptual, intentional, cognitive, social, motivational and emotional determinants of mobility and traffic behaviour. R.J Brooks et al. (1978) develop the two estimates of the saturation level of car ownership, in order to illustrate how a small change in the specification of the model can result in substantially different values for the estimated saturation level and hence of car ownership forecasts. Both estimates are based on an 12th WCTR, July 11-15, 2010 – Lisbon, Portugal 2 Development of Behavioural Models of Travel for Metropolitan Areas Padmini G and S.L Dhingra (IIT Bombay) underlying logistic growth curve but different assumptions are made about error structure. Genevieve and Joyce (2005) conduct an international comparative analysis of relationships between car ownership, daily travel and urban form. Using travel diary data for the US and Great Britain, and estimates models of car ownership and daily travel distance. Both structural model with daily travel conditional upon car ownership and a reduced form model for daily travel, excluding car ownership, are estimated. Model results are similar, and show that differences in travel are explained by (1) differences in demographics between the two countries; (2) lower household income in Great Britain; (3) country specific differences in costs of car ownership and use, transport supply and other factors we have not been able to control. Joyce (2007) analyses the factors determining household car travel, and specifically the effects of household income and the prices of cars and motor fuels, and to explore the inter temporal pattern of adjustment. The question of asymmetry in the response to rising and falling income is also addressed. The impact of prices, the speed of adjustment and the resistance to change will be important in determining the possibility of influencing travel behaviour and specifically car use. The results are compared with those for car ownership estimated on the basis of similar models. Kumar and Rao (2006) conducted stated preference survey of car ownership in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) of Maharashtra in India. A full factorial experiment was designed to considering various attributes such as travel time, travel cost, projected household income, car loan payment and servicing cost. The car ownership alternatives considered 0, 1 and 2 cars. A multinomial logit framework was used to develop the car ownership model taking the household as a decision unit. The car ownership models developed in this study exhibit a satisfactory goodness of fit. It is concluded that the SP modeling approach can be successfully used for modeling car ownership decisions of households in developing countries. David and Train (1999) described and applied choice models, including generalizations of logit called mixed logits. The models were estimated on data from a stated-preference survey that elicited customers’ preferences among gas, electric, methanol, and compressed natural gas vehicles with various attributes. Comparison was made among different models like standard logit, mixed logit and probit models. Results indicate that household who place relatively little importance on price have a greater tendency to buy a larger car. Khan (1985) developed a model to describe the dynamics of transportation mode choice in which the interaction between transportation users and a public transportation authority results in self-organization. The model illustrates that a sufficient number of connections between a central city and its suburbs are required for self- organization to occur whereby public transportation use and service will grow. Sergio (1990) analyses the microeconomic foundations of mode choice models postulate modal utilities which are
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