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Coastal Disaster Predicting Approach by Integrated Numerical Simulations

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Coastal Disaster Predicting Approach by Integrated Numerical Simulations Proceedings of the 10th Intl. Conf.on Hydroscience & Engineering, Nov. 4-7, 2012, Orlando, Florida, U.S.A. COASTAL DISASTER PREDICTING APPROACH BY INTEGRATED NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS SeungWon Suh1 ABSTRACT In this study coastal disaster predicting approaches were prepared to minimize hazards against increasing typhoon threatening on the west coast of Korea. Special physical characteristics such as macro tidal hydrodynamics on well developed tidal flats and complex coastal lines may directly affect to the inundation mechanism. To predict significant coastal hazards, intensive numerical simulations were performed by combining of tides, asymmetric vortex wind and wave stress. pADCIRC and unSWAN models applied on relative very fine unstructured meshes. Model domains based on the Yellow Sea (YS) extended to the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) region encompassing typhoon genesis and moving tracks. It can be obtained with satisfaction that tide results are within reasonable accuracy in spite of complex tidal hydrodynamics owing to enhanced bathymetry data, ETOPO1 and KorBathy30s, and open boundary conditions of 8 major tidal constituents by FES2004. Typhoon simulations assuming asymmetric vortex gives more realistic results. Incorporation of near shore wave effect by unSWAN gives relative higher inundation height. After parameters tunings synthetic storm surge simulations and probable maximum inundation heights on major harbor areas are estimated. Increasing marine leisure activities around the coastal area might be exposed to dangerous accidents for human and ecosystems under the unstable meteorological conditions. In this regard this proposed integrating modeling system was invented to marine SAR (Search and Rescue) and oil spill predicting purposes. In random walk simulation, particle tracking module is added to the ADCIRC model. Model results show added turbulence due to strong surface drags and makes wide spreading. Possibility analysis to find location of surface drifts might be considered to account for surface stresses. 1. INTRODUCTION Increasing typhoon intensities due to global warming might cause severe storm surge inundation on the Korean coast. Occasionally unexpected oil spills under extraordinary situation can also harmful damages. These kinds of coastal hazards can be minimized and managed by using moderate numerical models. As a management tool for coastal disaster remediation, induced by storm surge intensive studies for the western coast of Korea have been done and different kinds of numerical models were applied by many researchers. However there were some limitations such as simulation is performed in a restricted area and using different grids in incorporating wind fields into coastal 1 Professor, Department of Coastal Construction Engineering, Kunsan National University, Kunsan, 573-701, KOREA ([email protected]) Proceedings of the 10th Intl. Conf.on Hydroscience & Engineering, Nov. 4-7, 2012, Orlando, Florida, U.S.A. circulation. To resolve such problems, model domain is extended to not only the Yellow Sea, but also covering the East Sea (Sea of Japan), North Western Pacific (NWP) area including of East China Sea, South China Sea and Philippine Sea. Also identical fine grid system is considered in simulation of both circulation and wave. As the first step of analyses, tidal hydrodynamics on the newly constructed grid structure are reproduced and evaluated. And then wind stress of storm is performed by considering its movement as an asymmetric rotation, which is an improved scheme compared to prevailing symmetrical Holland type wind parameter presentation. After getting information of time varying wind stress on the hydrodynamic mode, wave induced stress is included in coastal area for the inundation modeling. Among several coastal circulation models, ADCIRC is known as reliable prediction tool in storm surges and thus its parallel version, pADCIRC, is chosen as a basic model in this study. For the simulation of wave stress unstructured version of SWAN is combined with circulation model. Due to continuing economical growth in Korea, harmful oil spill accidents are raising a serious marine environment problem as like as Hebei Spirit’s oil spill accident near the Korean coast in December, 2007. Marine leisure activity is also getting increased. However it is unclear to find scattering of oil spills or materials during the sudden accidents under the severe weather conditions as like as storm approaching etc. Thus in this study a particle tracking simulation of coastal disaster minimization approach is applied under an abnormal situation with strong wind and wave induced drags. Since storm surges or surface spreading of coastal accidents are nature physics, the whole mechanisms, i.e., tide, asymmetric storm, near shore wave effect and turbulent spreading have to be computed simultaneously. In this regard prediction of minimizing fatal accidents is included and solved in an integrated model approach accounting for all possible physical mechanisms. 2. NUMERICAL MODELS Among coastal numerical models unstructured grid system is adequate in reproducing of shallow hydrodynamics [3] because of resolving complex coast lines and depth variations with flexible grid sizes. Moreover it is attractive when code parallelization is provided in order to make efficient computations. For this purpose, a parallelized advance circulation model, pADCIRC is chosen. And to account for wave induced drag effect, unstructured wave model unSWAN is coupled. In simulating sea surface particle spreading a Lagrangian random walk particle tracking approach is applied to the circulation model. The governing momentum equations can be expressed as eqns. (1) and (2) including shear stresses on both surface and bottom as in Dietrich et al. (2011); (1) (2) where H=ζ+h is the total water depth, ζ is the deviation of the water surface from the mean, h is the bathymetric depth; U and V are depth integrated currents in the x- and y-directions, respectively, f is the Coriolis parameter, g is the gravitational acceleration, Ps is the atmospheric pressure at the surface, is the reference density of water, is the Newtonian equilibrium tidal potential and is the effective earth elasticity factor, and are surface stresses due to winds and waves, respectively, is the bottom stress; M are lateral stress gradients; D are momentum dispersion terms. 2 Proceedings of the 10th Intl. Conf.on Hydroscience & Engineering, Nov. 4-7, 2012, Orlando, Florida, U.S.A. 2.1 Finite element Meshes and Input Data To understand the whole movements of typhoon tracks from genesis to extinction, model domain extended to North Western Pacific (NWP) region based on Yellow Sea (YS) grid structure by Suh (1999 a) and Suh and Kim (2011). Semi-automatic scheme is applied in grid generation, which satisfies Courant number criteria, i.e., wave length ratio and depth gradient over a grid. Finally constructed grid named NWP-G57K, which has 56,617 nodes and 104,094 elements with shortest distance of 150 m near the west coast of Korea, is shown in Figure 1. One of the most important things in modeling is proving accurate depth data. To meet the requirement, one minute global bathymetry data, ETOPO1 (Amante and Eakins, 2009) is used as basic depth data while 30’s archived depth along the Korean coast is added as supplementary data. After constructing grid structure with recent depth data, the domain can be activated by introducing internal and/or external forcing. For the external forcing tidal constituents harmonic constants are prescribed on the outer open boundary from global tide model, FES2004 (Lyard et. al., 2006). Figure 1 FEM meshes extended to (a) NWP and (b) finely resolving at the west coast of Korea. 2.2 Tide and tidal Current The first step of a modeling is to resolve the irregular coast with very fine grids and then reproduce complex tidal variations including astronomical and shallow nonlinear tides. To get precise results tidal amplitudes and phases for 8 major tidal constituents (M2, K1, S2, O1, N2, P1, K2, Q1) referring to GMT are extracted from FES2004 and applied to the open boundary points as external forcing functions. Since FES2004 only supports regular gridded information, an automatic interpolation mapping scheme is considered to take irregularly scattered open boundary nodes. Model runs performed for 35 days of simulation and the first 5 days results discarded to consider ramp up. It takes 35 minutes of wall clock on 32 parallel processors with time integration of 8 seconds. Computed tidal hydrodynamic results are interpreted as quantitatively on 96 tidal stations along the Korean coast archived by KORDI and 153 stations data including China and Japan by IHO (International Hydrographic Organization) by comparing amplitudes and phase lags. Since each country deploys local standard time zone, all phase lags are represented as GMT to maintain consistency. 3 Proceedings of the 10th Intl. Conf.on Hydroscience & Engineering, Nov. 4-7, 2012, Orlando, Florida, U.S.A. 2.3 Surface drag force Representation One of the typical coastal disasters is inundation due to storm surges or tsunamis. In simulating typhoon inundation, the hot issue is how to represent the movement of cyclonic motion realistically. Since it is important in representing realistic phenomena as a numerical model to reproduce. Up to now most approaches follow the symmetric motion based on Holland (1980) or Fujita type representations because of simplicity. However satellite image of real storms shows asymmetrical vortex
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