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Mariners Weather Log Vol. 44, No. 1 April 2000 Jack Tar (Completed by Jeremiah Dodge of New York. Courtesy Independence Seaport Museum, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.) This seven foot tall wooden Carving is considered an accurate rendition of the typical American merchant seaman of about 1845. See related article on page 14. Mariners Weather Log Mariners Weather Log From the Editorial Supervisor The Mariners Weather Log web site now contains six complete issues (including this one), beginning with the August 1998 issue. The web site receives the magazine several weeks before it is actually in print and contains color photographs. See web address below. U.S. Department of Commerce This issue contains a mail-in questionnaire. We would William M. Daley, Secretary greatly appreciate your cooperation in filling this out and mailing it to us. The business reply form on the back of the questionnaire is postage free if mailed in the United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Very Important: Please keep us informed about changes to Dr. D. James Baker, Administrator your mailing address. Voluntary Observing Ships may contact any United States Port Meteorological Officer (PMO) to update or change an address. National Weather Service John J. Kelly, Jr., Assistant Administrator for Weather Services The La Niña phenomenon (cooler than normal water over the mid Pacific), present for the past two years, is reducing in strength. As it continues weakening, its enhancing effect Editorial Supervisor on hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin will diminish Martin S. Baron (La Niña is associated with weaker Atlantic area upper level winds [reduced wind shear], a condition favorable for tropical storm development). However, hurricane experts Editor believe that current global atmospheric circulation patterns Mary Ann Burke are still conducive to an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2000, and total activity is expected to exceed the long-term annual average of 5.7 Atlantic basin hurricanes. The renowned Colorado State hurricane forecast team is calling for eight named Atlantic hurricanes in 2000 (there The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law were eight in 1999 and ten in 1998). Sustained wind must of this department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been approved be at least 74 mph to qualify as a hurricane. On the other by the director of the Office of Management and Budget through December hand, El Niño years are associated with fewer than normal 1999. Atlantic tropical storms (because of greater wind shear The Mariners Weather Log (ISSN: 0025-3367) is published by the National aloft). For more information see http://tropical.atmos. Weather Service, Office of Meteorology, Integrated Hydrometeorological Services Core, Silver Spring, Maryland, (301) 713-1677, Ext. 134. Funding is colostate.edu/ and http://www.ncep.noaa.gov. provided by the National Weather Service, and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service Navy. Data is provided by the National Climatic Data Center. Martin S. Baron h Articles, photographs, and letters should be sent to: Some Important Webpage Addresses Mr. Martin S. Baron, Editorial Supervisor NOAA http://www.noaa.gov Mariners Weather Log National Weather Service http://www.nws.noaa.gov National Weather Service, NOAA AMVER Program http://www.amver.com VOS Program http://www.vos.noaa.gov 1325 East-West Highway, Room 14108 SEAS Program http://seas.nos.noaa.gov/seas/ Silver Spring, MD 20910 Mariners Weather Log http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/ mwl/mwl.htm Phone: (301) 713-1677 Ext. 134 Marine Dissemination http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/ Fax: (301) 713-1598 marine/home.htm E-mail: [email protected] See these webpages for further links. 2 Mariners Weather Log Mariners Weather Log Mariners Weather Log (MWL) Readers Questionnaire We want to hear from you! So we can better serve you in the future, please let us know how we’re doing by completing this short questionnaire. Thank you for your feedback. Please rate MWL on the following features: 1. What is your favorite column or type of article? o I like them all. o It would have to be this one:________________________________________ 2. What’s your least favorite article in MWL? o They’re all good. o It would have to be this one: ________________________________________ 3. Is the content of MWL relevant and useful? o Strongly Agree o Agree o Disagree o Strongly Disagree o No Opinion 4. Ease of reading the articles: (1=poor, 5=excellent) 12345 ooooo 5. Organization/Layout: (1=poor, 5=excellent) 12345 ooooo 6. How did you first hear about MWL? o Word-of-mouth o Library o Saw it aboard ship or other place of business o Article in newspaper/magazine o Search engine on web o Conference/trade show o Other _____________________________________________________ 7. Please rank the MWL departments in order of importance: (5=most valuable) 12345 AMVER Article ooooo Great Lakes Wrecks ooooo Physical Oceanography ooooo Marine Biology ooooo National Data Buoy Center ooooo VOS Program ooooo VOS Coop. Ship Reports ooooo Buoy Climatological Data ooooo Marine Weather Review N. Atlantic ooooo Marine Weather Review N. Pacific ooooo Marine Weather Review Tropics ooooo Climate Prediction Center Charts ooooo On The Bridge ooooo Marine History Articles ooooo Special Feature articles ooooo Meteorological Services (Observations) ooooo Meteorological Services (Forecasts) ooooo 8. Overall, how satisfied are you with MWL? (1=poor, 5=excellent) 12345 ooooo 9. How can we improve the MWL? ___________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________ Thank you for taking the time to complete this questionnaire. April 2000 3 Mariners Weather Log Fold Here and Seal with Tape at Bottom US DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NOAA, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, W/OM12 1325 EAST-WEST HIGHWAY, ROOM 14108 SILVER SPRING MD 20910-3282 OFFICIAL BUSINESS PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE $300 4 Mariners Weather Log Mariners Weather Log Table of Contents Dynamic Fetch: Some Insight Into Rapid Increase in Sea Wave Height....................................... 6 The Life of a Sailor: A Collector’s Vision................................................................................... 14 Great Lakes Wrecks: The Loss of the Eastland ........................................................................... 17 Rendezvous with Mitch ................................................................................................................ 75 Departments: AMVER............................................................................................................................................................. 18 Marine Weather Review 2000 Hurricane and Cyclone Names ................................................................................................... 21 North Atlantic, September–December 1999........................................................................................ 23 North Pacific, September–December 1999 .........................................................................................39 Tropical Atlantic and Tropical East Pacific, September–December 1999 .......................................... 54 Climate Prediction Center, September–December 1999 ..................................................................... 73 VOS Program .................................................................................................................................................... 78 VOS Cooperative Ship Reports ......................................................................................................................... 92 Buoy Climatological Data Summary ............................................................................................................... 104 Meteorological Services Observations ....................................................................................................................................... 110 Forecasts ............................................................................................................................................. 113 April 2000 5 Dynamic Fetch Dynamic Fetch Some Insight Into Rapid Increase in Sea Wave Height Michael Carr Maritime Institute of Technology & Graduate Studies Linthicum Heights, Maryland Editors Note: The author has hours that winds increased from Scott was facinated by this based this article on research Gale to Storm force, wave height dramatic increase in sea height. conducted by Scott Prosise, increased by 3 meters (10 feet), During his more than ten years as meteorologist with the National from 5.5 to 9 meters (18 to 28 a marine meteorologist he had Weather Service Marine Predic- feet)! never seen seas increase so tion Center in Camp Springs, rapidly. He quickly hypothesized Maryland. According to guidance provided that some type of “wave front” by the wave development models, development was occurring n 26 March 1997 meteor- the wave height should have instigated by a rapidly developing ologist Scott Prosise was increased by, at most, 1 to 1.5 low pressure system, for which Ostanding the evening meters (4 to 5 feet), not by 3 few observations were available. watch at the Marine Prediction meters (10 feet). Scott remembers Scott searched archived data for Center in Camp
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