WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2010
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WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2010 WMO-No. 1074 WMO-No. 1074 © World Meteorological Organization, 2011 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chair, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 40 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] ISBN 978-92-63-11074-9 WMO in collaboration with Members issues since 1993 annual statements on the status of the global climate. This publication was issued in collaboration with the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, United Kingdom; the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Weather Service (NWS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States of America; the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), United States; the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), United States; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom; the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), Germany; and the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, United States. Other contributors are the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services or equivalent climate institutions of Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Croatia, Denmark, Fiji, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Kenya, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Portugal, Russian Federation, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Tunisia, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of). The WMO Regional Association VI (Europe) Regional Climate Centre on Climate Monitoring, the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD, Niamey), the International Research Centre on El Niño (CIIFEN, Guayaquil, Ecuador), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC, Nairobi), the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) also contributed. Cover: Autumn wind. Illustration by Roisin Manning, 10 years old, United Kingdom NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Opinions expressed in WMO publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. Foreword In 1993 the World Meteorological Organization Climate Services, in response to the unanimous (WMO) launched its annual “WMO Statement decision of the World Climate Conference-3, on the Status of the Global Climate” series, in which WMO convened in 2009 in partnership the wake of climate awareness generated by with the United Nations system. Through the the Second World Climate Conference, which development of the Framework, WMO is com- WMO organized with its scientific partners mitted to further improve its climate products, in 1990. The report has continued to gain in information and service delivery to serve all popularity and is today a recognized authori- climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors. tative source of information for the scientific community, the media and the public at large. The year 2010 was WMO’s Diamond Jubilee, The present WMO Statement on the Status of since on 23 March 1950 the new Organization the Global Climate in 2010 is the latest member took over the global responsibilities of the of this successful sequence. International Meteorological Organization, established in 1873 as an outcome of the The year 2010 was especially notable in that First International Meteorological Congress global surface temperatures reached record held in Vienna. values at the same level as in 1998 and 2005, consistent with the acceleration of the warm- I wish to express the appreciation of WMO to ing experienced over the last 50 years. The all the Centres and the National Meteorological year also signalled the closure of the warmest and Hydrological Services of its 189 Members decade on record. Over this decade, warm- that collaborated with WMO and contributed ing was markedly more pronounced in some to this key publication. As with the previous regions, notably so in North Africa and the editions, I would like to underscore the impor- Arabian Peninsula, South Asia and the Arctic. tance of your feedback. WMO looks forward to your comments on the WMO Statement on Moreover, large and extended climate the Status of the Global Climate in 2010 and extremes were recorded in several parts of to your welcome suggestions for its further the world, causing significant socio-economic improvement. impacts. In particular, the flooding in Pakistan and Australia as well as the summer heatwave in the Russian Federation were among the most remarkable climate extremes of the year. Furthermore, 2010 was also special as the year in which a High-level Taskforce developed recommendations for the structure, priorities (M. Jarraud) and governance of a Global Framework for Secretary-General 1 Global temperatures in 2010 Note: The analysis is based on three independent datasets, maintained by the Hadley Centre of the Meteorological Office, UK, and the Climatic Average global temperatures were estimated Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (HadCRU) in the United to be 0.53°C ± 0.09°C above the 1961–1990 Kingdom, the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and annual average of 14°C. This makes 2010 Atmospheric Administration (NCDC–NOAA) in the United States, and tied for warmest year on record in records the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) operated by the National dating back to 1880. The 2010 nominal value Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the United States. of +0.53°C ranks just ahead of those of 2005 (+0.52°C) and 1998 (+0.51°C), although the differences between the three years are not Major large-scale influences on the global statistically significant, due to uncertainties climate in 2010 mainly associated with sampling the Earth’s land and sea surface temperatures using The year 2010 began with an El Niño event only a finite number of observation sites, well established in the Pacific Ocean. This Figure 1. Global ranked and the way estimates are interpo- surface temperatures lated between those sites. Data from for the warmest 0.6 2010 the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA) 2005 0.4 1998 2003 50 years. Inset shows 2002 0.2 2009 2006 0.6 2007 0.0 indicate that 2010 ranks as the world’s 2004 global ranked surface 2001 –0.2 –0.4 2008 second warmest year, with the differ- 1997 temperatures from 1880. –0.6 1995 1999 1990 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 The size of the bars ence between it and 2005 within the 2000 0.4 1991 Rank 1988 margin of uncertainty. 1987 1996 1983 indicates the 95 per 1994 1981 1944 1989 cent confidence limits 1980 1993 1941 1992 1973 1977 1986 0.2 1938 1979 2010 1940 The decade 2001–2010 was also the 1943 1939 1945 associated with each 1937 1953 1963 1982 1984 1969 1942 1958 2000–2009 1962 1961 1985 year. Values are simple warmest on record. Temperatures over 1990–1999 1957 1970–1989 area-weighted averages the decade averaged 0.46°C above the from 1961–1990 average 0.0 Temperature difference (°C) 1950–1969 for the whole year. 1961–1990 mean, 0.21°C warmer than 1930–1949 1910–1929 (Source: Met Office Hadley the previous record decade 1991–2000. 1850–1909 Centre, UK, and Climatic In turn, 1991–2000 was warmer than –0.2 Research Unit, University of previous decades, consistent with a 10 20 30 40 50 East Anglia, United Kingdom) long-term warming trend. Rank of hottest years to coldest Figure 2. Annual global average temperature 0.6 anomalies (relative to Met Office Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit 1961–1990) from 1850 NOAA National Climatic Data Center to 2010 from the Hadley 0.4 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Centre/CRU (HadCRUT3) (black line and grey area, representing mean and 0.2 95 per cent uncertainty range), the NOAA 0 National Climatic Data Center (red); and the NASA Goddard Institute – 0.2 for Space Studies (blue) (Source: Met Office Hadley Centre, UK, and Climatic – 0.4 Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom) Anomaly (°C) relative to 1961–1990 to relative (°C) Anomaly – 0.6 – 0.8 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year 2 Figure 3. Decadal global broke down quickly in the early months of the 2001–2010 14.46 average combined year. A rapid transition took place and La Niña 1991–2000 14.25 conditions were in place by August. By some 1981–1990 14.12 land-ocean surface 13.95 measures the La Niña event in progress at the 1971–1980 temperature (°C), 1961–1970 13.90 combining three global end of 2010 is the strongest since at least the 1951–1960 13.89 temperature datasets mid-1970s, and among the five strongest of 1941–1950 13.92 1931–1940 13.89 (Source: Met Office Hadley the last century.