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Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report Impact Forecasting—2010 Contents

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Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report Impact Forecasting—2010 Contents Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report Impact Forecasting—2010 Contents Executive Summary—2010’s Top Catastrophes 3 2010 Climate Review 7 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review 9 2010 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Review 10 2010 Western Pacific Typhoon Season Review 11 2010 Indian Ocean and Southern Pacific Cyclone Season Review 12 2010 United States Tornado Season Review 13 2010 United States Brushfire Season Review 14 2011 Climate and Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts 15 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: January – March 2011 16 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: March – May 2011 17 Historical Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions 18 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks 20 2010 Monthly Catastrophe Review 21 United States 21 Remainder of North America (Canada, Mexico, Bermuda, Caribbean Islands) 35 South America 43 Europe 48 Africa 56 Asia 60 Oceania (Australia, New Guinea, New Zealand, Micronesia, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands) 77 Appendix: Tropical System Frequency Correlations 84 Western Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO) 84 Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin (ENSO) 85 Atlantic Ocean Basin (ENSO) 86 Aon Benfield: Impact Forecasting Executive Summary — 2010’s Top Catastrophes Nature was very active in 2010. It was the warmest year observed since 1880 when temperature records began. Major earthquakes in Haiti, Chile and Indonesia caused thousands of fatalities and widespread damage. Vast floods persisted for many months across portions of Asia. Severe weather outbreaks in the United States and Australia spawned tornadoes, damaging winds and destructive hail. At least four strong tropical systems made landfall in Asia. No hurricanes made landfall in the United States even though the Atlantic Hurricane Season produced the second-most number of hurricanes in the last 25 years. Despite the active Atlantic Hurricane Season, global tropical cyclone development remained below average for the fifth consecutive year. Global natural catastrophic activity in 2010 was far higher than the previous three years, with 314 separate events causing significant damage in various parts of the world. These 314 events, defined as natural meteorological and climatological occurrences that have caused a significant impact in terms of insurance claims, economic loss and/or fatalities or has had a large humanitarian effect, resulted in economic losses of USD251.95 billion and insured losses of USD37.95 billion. By comparison, 2009 tallied 222 events that combined to produce USD58 billion in economic losses and USD20 billion in insured losses. The United States and South America tallied the most insured losses for 2010 primarily due to damaging winter and springtime weather in the United States and the Chile earthquake in South America. Asia accounted for the majority of the economic losses, driven primarily by flooding in Pakistan and China. Of the top 10 insured natural catastrophic events in 2010, five were severe weather events (tornadoes, hail or severe thunderstorm winds), one was a winter- based storm event (snow, icing, cold temperatures, and damaging winds), two were earthquake events, and two were flood events. The most costly insured loss event of the year was the Chile earthquake, which caused an estimated USD8.5 billion in insured losses. The February 27th earthquake killed 521 people and damaged or destroyed more than 1.5 million structures. Widespread flooding in Pakistan caused the greatest economic loss from an individual event with more than USD30 billion in losses reported. The floods started in July and continued into August. In all, they killed 1,985 people and damaged or destroyed more than 1.7 million structures. However, only USD200 million of the economic losses were insured. Exhibit 1 shows the top 10 insured loss events in 2010 that caused USD23.4 billion in loss, and accounted for more than 61 percent of the year’s total insured catastrophe losses. The remaining USD14.55 billion insured catastrophe losses were a combination of winter storms, severe weather, flooding, tropical cyclone activity, earthquakes, and wildfires. 3 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report Exhibit 1: Top 10 Insured Loss Events In 2010 Economic Insured Event # Of Event Event # Of Loss Loss Name Structures Date Location Deaths Estimates Estimates Or Type / Claims (USD) (USD) 2/27 Earthquake Chile 521 1,500,000 30.00 billion 8.50 billion Windstorm France, Portugal, Spain, 2/27-2/28 64 100,000 4.50 billion 3.65 billion Xynthia Belgium, Germany 9/4 Earthquake New Zealand 0 190,000 3.81 billion 3.05 billion Plains, Midwest, Severe 5/12-5/26 Northeast, Tennessee 0 230,000 2.75 billion 2.00 billion Weather Valley Mississippi Valley, Severe 4/30-5/3 Tennessee Valley, 32 75,000 3.00 billion 1.50 billion Weather Southeast Severe 3/22 Western Australia 0 165,000 1.25 billion 1.06 billion Weather Severe 3/6 Victoria 0 105,000 1.25 billion 1.02 billion Weather Northeast, Mid-Atlantic 3/12-3/16 Flooding 11 175,000 1.50 billion 1.00 billion States 6/5-6/9 Flooding France, Spain 27 45,000 1.00 billion 0.87 billion Severe 10/5-10/6 Arizona 0 150,000 1.25 billion 0.75 billion Weather ALL OTHER EVENTS 201.65 billion 14.55 billion TOTALS 251.95 billion 37.95 billion The most deadly 2010 event was the Haiti earthquake in January. The earthquake killed an estimated 230,000 people and caused USD8 billion in economic loss. Since insurance penetration in Haiti is very low, insured losses were less than 1.3 percent of the economic loss: USD100 million. The magnitude-7.0 earthquake damaged or destroyed more than 350,000 structures. Exhibit 2 shows the top 10 catastrophe events in terms of human fatalities in 2010. Exhibit 2: Top 10 Human Fatality Events In 2010 Economic # Of Event Event Name Event # Of Loss Structures/ Date Or Type Location Deaths Estimates Claims (USD) 1/12 Earthquake Haiti 230,000 350,000 8.00 billion Northern, Central, Eastern 6/15-8/15 Heat Wave 15,000 0 1.07 billion Europe 4/14 Earthquake China 2,698 61,000 12.00 billion 7/21-8/10 Flooding Pakistan 1,985 1,744,471 30.00 billion 8/8-8/9 Landslide China 1,765 4,000 0.10 billion 7/1-8/10 Flooding China 829 750,000 25.00 billion 7/17-7/24 Winter Weather South America 522 0 0.00 billion 2/27 Earthquake Chile 521 1,500,000 30.00 billion 10/25 EQ/Tsunami Indonesia 509 15,000 0.07 billion 6/13-6/30 Flooding China 381 879,000 15.00 billion 4 Aon Benfield: Impact Forecasting The most damaging event in 2010 was the flooding that occurred in Pakistan in July and August. The floods killed 1,985 people and damaged or destroyed more than 1.7 million structures, resulting in economic losses of USD30 billion and insured losses of only USD200 million. Two other events—flooding in Thailand and the Chile earthquake— each damaged or destroyed more than 1.5 million structures. The economic losses of the Chile earthquake matched the economic losses of the Pakistan flood event, USD30 billion, and generated USD8.5 billion in insured losses. The flooding in Thailand, however, generated USD1.3 billion in economic losses and USD26 million in insured losses. Exhibit 3 shows the top 10 catastrophe events in terms of structures damaged or destroyed in 2010. Exhibit 3: Top 10 Structural Damage Events In 2010 Economic # Of Event Event Name Event # Of Loss Structures/ Date Or Type Location Deaths Estimates Claims (USD) 7/21-8/10 Flooding Pakistan 1,985 1,744,471 30.00 billion 10/10-10/19 Flooding Thailand 156 1,500,000 1.30 billion 2/27 Earthquake Chile 521 1,500,000 30.00 billion 6/13-6/30 Flooding China 381 879,000 15.00 billion 7/1-8/10 Flooding China 829 750,000 25.00 billion 10/1-10/22 Flooding Central and Western Africa 377 500,000 0.15 billion 10/29-11/2 Flooding Thailand 76 500,000 0.60 billion 8/1-9/30 Flooding Nigeria 40 350,000 0.03 billion 1/12 Earthquake Haiti 230,000 350,000 8.00 billion 4/13 Severe Weather India, Bangladesh 137 300,000 0.03 billion 2010 produced only one event, the Chile earthquake, that had insured losses that topped USD5 billion. The last event that surpassed USD5 billion in insured losses before 2010’s Chile earthquake was 2008’s Hurricane Ike, which made landfall in Galveston, Texas and caused more than USD12.55 billion (2010 USD) in insured losses to coastal sections of Louisiana and Texas as well as inland states across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. In 2007, Windstorm Kyrill battered portions of Germany, Britain, Belgium, and the Netherlands, costing insurers more than USD6.26 billion (2010 USD). 2005 was the record-setting year for insured losses, mainly due to three landfalling major hurricanes in the United States (Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma). 2010’s catastrophes occurred, for the most part, in areas where low insurance penetration exists. Areas such as China, India and Indonesia experienced flooding, earthquakes and tropical cyclones that produced widespread damage but did not adversely affect the insurance industry. Therefore, insured losses for these magnitudes of events were quite low. However, these types of disasters can occur anywhere in the world, including in areas where insurance penetration is much higher such as the United States, the United Kingdom and South Korea. Because of this, any one of the top 10 economic catastrophes can occur in areas that have much higher take-up rates. For example, one of the costliest catastrophe in terms of economic losses, the Chile earthquake, amounted USD30 billion in economic losses and USD8.5 billion in insured losses.
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